Evan Longoria – Keefe To The City

Apr 27, 2015

The Yankees and Rays Will Be in Tight Race All Year

After nearly a month of baseball, every team in the AL East is in a battle for first place and that’s likely to continue for the entire season.

This season was supposed to be a down year for the AL East, but after three weeks, it’s been the best division in baseball. Two games separate the five teams and the Yankees and Rays are atop the division at 11-8 with a three-game series between the two teams starting on Monday.

With the Yankees and Rays meeting in the Bronx for the first time this season, Daniel Russell of DRaysBay joined me to talk about losing the Rays’ impressive start, Rays fans’ perspective of A-Rod, Chris Archer’s dominance of the Yankees and how the AL East will play out this summer now that both teams have seen every team in the division.

Keefe: Since the last series between the two teams, the Rays have gone 5-1, winning a series against the Red Sox and sweeping the Blue Jays. After their hot start, the Rays were recently 6-8 and I thought it might be the start of their decline with the roster turnover and injuries they are dealing with, but they have rebounded to share the lead in the division with the Yankees.

For a team that was expected to have to win a lot of 2-1 and 3-2 games this year, they have done that, but they have also had no trouble putting up big numbers here and there in the first month of the season.

Given the names in their lineup, the Rays’ offense was supposed to be the weak link for 2015, but it has managed to do just enough to win games with great pitching. I guess we should all just be used to that by now?

Russell: The Rays continue to be a team built off run prevention and just-enough offense, but you’re right, the offense has done well. Most of that comes from matching up well in the handedness department. Guys like David DeJesus, Tim Beckham, Brandon Guyer and Logan Forsythe have been critical.

For any team to find success, there needs to be a little luck involved, and the Rays have done particularly well in their pinch-hitting department. That’s remarkable, as the team topped out its disabled list at 12 guys on Wednesday among several other playing-hurt guys like Souza, Cabrera, and Jennings.

Now as the starters come back into the fold, it will certainly be interesting to see what the Rays do with the guys off the bench who’ve delivered.

A lot of that has to do with taking walks as well, which we are all well acquainted with in the division. The only three teams in the American League with 10 percent walk rates are the Yankees, Rays, and Red Sox, but it’s true the offense has been putting up strong numbers.

Tampa Bay chips away at their opponents, and it’s been paying off. Their 113 wRC+ is fifth in the American League, ahead of New York at sixth (107).

Keefe: Evan Longoria hasn’t really been a part of those big numbers. He’s hitting .306/.413/.468, but he also has just one home run and four RBIs, which puts him in the Jacoby Ellsbury Club (one home run, two RBIs) early this season.

Where has Longoria’s power been? Do you ever worry about him?

Russell: Longoria has been ridiculously productive this month, so it doesn’t bother me yet that he hasn’t homered since opening day. All 19 games of the season thus far have been played in domes or under roofs, so the longballs will come.

In the mean time, Longo has a 14.7 percent walk rate and a 14.7 percent strikeout rate, while batting a .306 AVG at a 152 wRC+. It’s too soon to panic.

Keefe: The Yankees went to Tampa as a bad baseball team. They couldn’t hit or pitch with any consistency and their defense and base running was atrocious. They were 3-6 before the first game of that three game series, but then everything changed on that Friday night. Everything changed when Alex Rodriguez took over the game.

A-Rod finished 3-for-4 with two home runs and four RBIs and hit the go-ahead single in the top of the eighth in the Yankees’ win. Since that night, the Yankees have gone 8-2 to climb to the top of the AL East.

Last night on Sunday Night Baseball against the Mets, A-Rod got the Yankees started with an opposite-field home run, his fifth of the season, just two weeks after saving the Yankees’ season on Sunday Night Baseball against the Red Sox with a first-inning, bases-clearing double.

I am a huge A-Rod fan and supported, mainly because he has been treated so much worse and differently than other PED users, but also because he helps the team win. From an outsider’s perspective and from someone who watched their team lose a game single-handedly because of him, what are you feelings on A-Rod?

Russell: I’m not all Rays fans, I’m sure the fan base hates him, but what I love about baseball – and sports in general – is entertainment and narrative. A-Rod getting clean, then coming back and being the dominant baseball player he always was supposed to be, is just pure entertainment.

The Yankees winning just makes me hate the Yankees more. That sort of passion is reserved to the laundry for me.

Keefe: For the second series this year, the Yankees will thankfully miss Chris Archer as he pitched the day before the start of both series.

In six career starts against the Yankees, Archer is 5-0 with 1.93 ERA. Outside of Felix Hernandez, I think Archer is the active pitcher with the most dominant performances against the Yankees. So of course I’m ecstatic we won’t see him again this week.

What makes Archer so special? Is he considered to be the ace of the staff with Cobb and Moore still out, and is he the ace even with them back?

Russell: Archer can thrive on two pitches two times through the lineup. Thanks to some added strength this off-season he’s pushing 98 with the fastball and has a wipe out slider. When the third time comes around, he introduces the change and no one knows what to do with it. It’s a joy to watch.

He’s also an intelligent kid, a big personality, and someone who constantly gives back to the community. He signed a longterm deal thankful for everything the club has done for him.

They don’t make ’em like Archer too often.

Keefe: The Yankees and Rays are tied atop the AL East at 11-8 with the entire division separated by two games. I have a feeling it’s going to be like that the entire season with all five teams in the race and no one really pulling away and riding and hiding for the summer with the division lead.

What are your early thoughts on the division now that you have seen the Rays play all the teams?

Russell: I’ll agree I expected the division to be pretty tight, I don’t really see any club pulling ahead. New York and Toronto are susceptible to injury, the Orioles and Red Sox to pitching problems and Tampa Bay to the offense slipping away.

The fact that the Rays have not only tread water in the division, but been able to pull ahead some of the other teams, has been really something. If this is what the Rays’ B-Team can do, I’m excited to see what happens when the injured players are re-introduced.

Evan Longoria Is the Rays’ Derek Jeter

The Rays lose players to big-market teams seemingly every year, but Evan Longoria has been the exception and is the one true icon in the team’s short 18-year history.

The Yankees are in trouble. With three straight series losses to open the season, the Yankees have to get back on track before their remaining seven-game road trip ends. If they don’t, the season could be lost before it even begins.

With the Yankees into Tampa Bay for their first series against the Rays, Daniel Russell of DRaysBay joined me to talk about losing Andrew Friedman to the Dodgers, having a rookie manager in Kevin Cash take over for Joe Maddon and the frustration of watching the roster turn over due to finances.

Keefe: This offseason you lost general manager Andrew Friedman to the Dodgers and manager Joe Maddon to the Rays. Both men played an integral part in the success of the Rays from shedding their Devil Rays image to becoming a consistent winning and postseason team.

What were your feelings on the two leaving for big-market teams?

Russell: There’s so much I could say about each of these men, in appreciation, in admiration, and in heartfelt sorrow that they are gone. The Rays only had a few faces of the franchise, and these two were the primary names on that list.

Andrew Friedman’s departure was at some level expected, far back in my mind I thought he’d leave one day. His interviews and dinners about town had come and gone in the past, but after 10 years with the franchise (nine as de facto GM), his leaving didn’t add pain the the surprise.

Friedman is gone but the franchise is in a great place. The brain trust he built stayed in tact when he left for L.A., and his departure freed up the staff to make some moves that other wise might not have happened, like getting value for Joel Peralta or Wil Myers, who both looked pretty busted last season, despite their pedigrees.

Joe Maddon was different, just a week prior he was adamant about his commitment to the franchise, and once he was gone the front office was legitimately stunned. As were the players, and the coaching staff. The Rays believe some tampering occurred on the part of the Cubs, who hired him seven days later, and that investigation is still ongoing, even though Manfred said it would conclude by Opening Day. So there’s something fishy to the situation.

I don’t blame Joe Maddon for leaving, the opportunity to become a legend with the Cubs is something I think I would have pursued if I were in his position. It just happened in the wrong way.

Keefe: With Maddon leaving, Kevin Cash became a rookie manager and sort of under-the-radar selection for the Rays as their new manager. Just four years removed from the league, Cash, who had a short stint with the Yankees in 2009, was suddenly a manager in the majors after serving as part of Terry Francona’s Cleveland staff for two years.

Who did you want to be the Rays manager after Maddon left?

Russell: I’m not sure I had an opinion on who the manager would be among the list of first round finalists, but once it was narrowed down to Don Wakamatsu and Kevin Cash, I’m glad it was the latter.

Cash is a feel good story, a local kid who played Little League and went to high school in Tampa, then played in multiple College World Series at Florida State before becoming a Devil Ray. Coming back is a welcome home.

He scrapped his way into a major league career, transitioning to catcher in Cape Cod ball before joining the Blue Jays, and he won World Series rings with Boston (2007) and New York (2009) as the third catcher. He’s got the right mind and is super relatable in the clubhouse. He’s ridden those busses and he’s also found success.

Cash was an advanced scout for the Blue Jays, then the bullpen coach for the Indians, his second turn under Terry Francona (the guy who beat Joe Maddon for the job in Boston). He identified Yan Gomes for them, and helped turn around the careers of guys like Carlos Carrasco and Corey Kluber. He’s the kind of guy who destined to be a manager, and his hiring (while the youngest in the game with no true managerial experience) lends itself to the underdog role this Rays team needed to embrace.

Keefe: Tampa Bay was my favorite non-Yankees team before 2008, which is before they got good, and I don’t have a favorite non-Yankees team. Maybe it was because they were an easy win for the Yankees and a standings-padding opponent, which helped the Yankees to the division title year after year. But I enjoyed watching the Rays’ young talent and Lou Piniella manage that young talent even if it seemed like they would never put it together.

In 2008 they did it put it together. The Yankees missed the playoffs for the first time since 1993 and I rooted for the Rays in the postseason, mainly because I knew they could beat the Red Sox. Whn you look at the 2008 Rays roster, the only player left is Evan Longoria, who has been the face of the franchise and is the one true face of the franchise since the team’s inception.

Seven years ago when you thought about the Rays’ future, did you think Longoria would be the only player still with the organization from that World Series team?

Russell: I’m glad we’ve been able to fall out of your good graces, because the Yankee fan presence in Tampa can be quite unbearable.

Roster turnover is an expectation, and seven years later who could I have reasonably expected to remain? David Price and James Shields might be the only clear answers, maybe Carlos Pena if he’d kept his career in tact.

James Shields was the only type who had the talent and mindset to take on a second contract extension like Longoria, and David Price’s control ran through this season. Perhaps starter Matt Garza could have remained, but he was volatile and valuable to the market, so his departure was a bit more expected.

It’s worth mentioning that Ben Zobrist was a part of that 2008 team’s bench, but using a 2008 mindset I don’t think he was expected to become one of the five most valuable hitters in the game, so his mention would be unfair. As for other big ticket names, Upton and Crawford were destined to leave after long turns with the franchise far before 2015 rolled around.

If I may, this is probably a good moment to say kudos to Longoria for signing two team-friendly deals with Tampa Bay.

Speaking to a fanbase that has enjoyed several long Yankee careers, you need to understand he’s all we’ve got. Our franchise is only nearly 20 years old, that’s not a long time to retire the same numbers you all have in that cemetery or whatever that garden at Yankee Stadium is called.

Longoria knew he wanted to be a one-franchise man. He’ll be the first bronze statue one day as well. I’m looking forward to it.

Keefe: After Longoria, David Price was the second face of the team (at least from an outsider’s perspective). His trade was inevitable and now he is doing for the Tigers what he did for the Rays.

Is it hard to watch Price pitch for another team after being a homegrown player for the Rays, or are you used to the idea of superstars leaving because of finances?

Russell: It’s an unfortunate reality, truly it is. Your perception isn’t wrong, he really was the hearbeat of the team in a lot of ways. He’s still texting the Rays starters before they take the mound and offering encouragements. Losing him was hard.

The Rays don’t have the money to lock down many players, and the farm system has not been well stocked through the draft lately, so trading players has been the best avenue to bring the future to bear without going into an Astros re-build, or having to constantly trade away what remains like the Athletics.

So here we are in 2015 without David Price. I’m used to the idea, yes, but it’s no less frustrating. That excitement to watch him take the mound never really goes away. You always knew he was likely to give you something special.

Keefe: The Rays entered the season with an over/under win total of 79 after a 77-85 season in 2014. The turnover on the roster since last season has been immense and the 2015 Opening Day Rays are basically unrecognizable from the 2014 Opening Day Rays.

However, the Rays have gotten off to a strong 6-4 start despite some tough first-week opponents to once again prove that no matter who the Rays lose, they seem to find a way to stay competitive.

What are your expectations for this season?

Russell: Always take the over on the Tampa Bay Rays. This team has pressed into the playoffs in all but two seasons since 2008.

That said, injuries are a bear, and this year we might have 10 players on the disabled list before the week is out. The Rays starting depth is limited to the No. 2, No. 4, No. 7 and No. 9 starters from the depth chart, if we’re counting Matt Moore (recovering from Tommy John – returning in June) as the No. 5. The current fifth starter is the long man, and he’s laid an egg in both of his outings thus far.

Meanwhile, the Rays are going through an AL East bloodbath – only one series (already played against the Marlins) from Opening Day to May 6 is against a team outside the division. Right now the Rays just need to tread water, without their 1B, 2B, DH and maybe even without Longoria for one or two games after a hit-by-pitch last night.

It’s not going to be easy, but if this team can break even through April, I think they stand a decent chance of remaining competitive in the division, and following the projections from Baseball Prospectus to place second in the division around 85 wins.

David Price to Make Last Pitch to Yankees

If I get my wish, the next time David Price pitches in Yankee Stadium after this week will be as a member of the Yankees.

The Yankees desperately need to start putting wins together consistently and after winning eight of 10, they have now lost six of eight and the only thing that has been consistent about the 2014 Yankees is that they are inconsistent. I would like to think that could change this week at the Stadium against the Rays, but the Rays, despite having the worst record in the majors are 4-3 against the Yankees this season.

With the Yankees and Rays playing the final series in the Bronx before the All-Star break, Daniel Russell of DRaysBay joined me to talk about what’s gone for the Rays this season, what will happen with David Price and if the Rays could make a managerial change after this season.

Keefe: The last time we talked was on May 2. Back then, the Rays were 13-16 and part of the mix in an AL East that no one wanted to run away with after a month of baseball. But since then, the Rays have gone 22-33 and have buried themselves in the division, 10 games out after three months of baseball.

It’s been a while since the Rays found themselves in this sort of position at this point in the season. Here are their records after 84 games since 2008 when they first made the playoffs.

2013: 45-39
2012: 44-40
2011: 47-37
2010: 51-33
2009: 45-39
2008: 52-32

There is still half a season left to play and given the Rays’ recent history of going on remarkable runs, it’s hard to truly count them out yet, especially since neither the Yankees, Blue Jays or Orioles really want to take over the East and put a firm grip on it this summer.

Have you given up on the 2014 Rays or are you holding out hope that the remaining 78 games can be something special?

Russell: Play this season all over again, and I’d still think this team could win it all.

Not much unlike the lost 2009 season, the quality of the athletes assembled by Andrew Friedman this season was the best the Rays had ever fielded. This is not a horrible team by any stretch of the imagination, and Baseball Prospectus continues to project the Rays to the best performance through the remaining half season. But that’s all on paper. Everything should have gone right, but it all went wrong.

Part of the blame is on the starting rotation’s injuries, part of the blame is on sleepy bats, part of the blame is on uncharacteristic defensive miscues.

That said, I don’t foresee the Rays coming back from a 35-49 record. It’s just been a horrible year for what I would still consider a top-tier talent in baseball. Last place hurts, and this team is dejected. They’re still a formidable team to play (just ask the Orioles), but unless we start sweeping every division series, this team is bottom dwelling the rest of the season.

Keefe: The more the Rays lose, the more David Price’s inevitable departure from Tampa Bay becomes more and more imminent. I wish the Rays would find some worthy package from the Yankees and trade the left-handed ace within the division, but I recognize that is a pipe dream and Price will end up somewhere other than the Bronx when he is finally moved. My one fear is that he will be traded to the Dodgers where they will be sure to lock him up long-term and he will never hit free agency.

What is the mood with Rays fans knowing that at this point any David Price start could be his last with the organization? Where do you think he will end up?

Russell: David Price’s departure might as well be written in stone. The Rays were over budget heading into the season, and if Price were headed out the door either way, they might as well send him off now.

I would venture to say Price hasn’t been traded thus far because the expected return has been too far above the market, and I don’t think the front office is lowering their demands. It’s for that reason an inter-division trade isn’t happening. How much would the Yankees need to outbid the Rays’ expectations for them to send their ace to a rival?

The Rays have no interest in facing Price on a regular basis for years to come if it can be helped. Even if they were willing, though, who do the Yankees have to offer? James Shields brought back Wil Myers — and while that trade was robust, in a drastically different environment, it’s still the plumb line.

The mood for fans at this point is “what’s taking so long?” more than anything else. The Rays even granted Price’s request to play in Sunday Columbia blue jerseys on his Wednesday matinee last week. If that’s not a signal he’s going out the door…

Keefe: When I looked at the pitching matchups for this series and saw Chris Archer, David Price and Jake Odorizzi, I laughed to myself and thought, “Of course it’s those three.” Archer is 4-0 with a 1.29 ERA in four career starts against the Yankees, David Price is David Price and the Yankees as a team are 5-for-24 (.208) against Odorizzi and have basically never seen him and I know all too well how the Yankees do against pitchers with which they have no history.

I think the fact that I feel most confident about the Yankees’ chance in the middle game of this series against the 2012 Cy Young winner and current AL strikeout leader shows how deep the Rays’ pitching is, even in a year when Erik Bedard is in the rotation and Matt Moore is out for the season and Alex Cobb has missed significant time.

This must make you feel confident knowing everything will be fine pitching-wise even once Price has been traded?

Russell: Absolutely. The Rays are built on pitching; they live and die by the rotation. There’s some quality names en route to the majors in Enny Romero, Nathan Karns, and a few projects like grondballer Matt Andriese, scary but injured Alex Colome, and former bluechip prospect Mike Montgomery, not to mention a rehabbing Jeremy Hellickson. Trading Price will hurt, no doubt about it, but the Rays will survive as other roll players step up to the next level.

Keefe: If the Rays are willing to trade Price and accept that 2014 isn’t going to happen for them, I would think they would be willing to move some other players in order to retool and rebuild for 2015 and beyond when the injury bug isn’t decimating the entire team. Ben Zobrist’s name has been mentioned as a potential trade piece between now and July 31, but is there anyone else that could be leaving Tampa Bay in July?

Russell: I’d say it’s open season on anyone not under contract for an extended period of time. In fact, it’s easier to point out who is not being traded. The outfield is locked up in Desmond Jennings, Wil Myers, and Kevin Kiermaier. The infield locks are likely Evan Longoria and Yunel Escobar. Ryan Hanigan will remain at catcher, Alex Cobb, Matt Moore, and Chris Archer remain in the rotation. Literally everyone else I would put on the block, but given the lofty expectations of the front office, who knows who could go out the door?

Veteran role players are probably the ones worth watching. Erik Bedard, David DeJesus, James Loney, and Jose Molina’s glove are all under-discussed as trade targets. Matt Joyce, Grant Balfour, and Ben Zobrist rightfully so. It’s not a fire sale, but the Rays could be persuaded with a large enough offer.

Keefe: I have heard people bring up the idea that the Rays could move on from Joe Maddon and look for a managerial change. Not that Maddon has done a bad job (he hasn’t), but because it’s just time a for a change, which happens in baseball. I don’t agree with the idea to make a change for the sake of a change because a manager’s ways become stale within an organization, but then again, I have never played or managed in the majors, so maybe it can be needed.

If the Rays were going to make a change and let Maddon go after this season as a way of shaking things up if this disastrous season continues, then they would be doing exactly that and making a change just to make a change, discounting what Maddon has done in his tenure there. And if Maddon were let go, the over/under on when he would have another managerial job would be 17 minutes.

Is it time for the Rays to think about a new manager or is that the craziest thing you have heard this year?

Russell: I have heard a lot of crazy theories about what the Rays could do to fix the mess, but changing managers is brand new to my ears. I can’t imagine it in any scenario. The Rays know the incredible asset they have in Maddon, and he’s incredibly happy with the club. The same could be said for pitching coach Jim Hickey.

There might be a case to switch up the hitting coach some time in the next six month, but how much is he to blame for this year’s 100 wRC+, compared to last year’s 108 wRC+? Coaching changes are not so clear cut as a Bobby Valentine disaster. The Rays have no reason to dictate a change in management. It’s just crazy talk!

Tag: Evan Longoria

The Yankees and Rays Will Be in Tight Race All Year

Evan Longoria Is the Rays’ Derek Jeter

David Price to Make Last Pitch to Yankees