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Tag: Eli Manning

Blogs • Giants

Sep 4, 2014

NFL Week 1 Picks

Last season, the Makeshift Yankees got me to September and got me to the Giants. Unfortunately, the Giants couldn’t even make it through September to get me to the Rangers by going winless through September

Eli Manning

Last season, the Makeshift Yankees got me to September and got me to the Giants. Unfortunately, the Giants couldn’t even make it through September to get me to the Rangers by going winless through September and half of October. Yes, the Giants fought back to give me a meaningful game on the Sunday before Thanksgiving in Week 12, but they blew that game and blew a gift from the Football Gods, who gave them a chance to take over the NFC East lead and a chance at the playoffs despite starting the season 0-6.

This season, the Yankees got me to the Giants (barely) and are still somewhat going even if they need to go like 25-0 the rest of the way to make the playoffs. The Giants, though, might not get me to the Rangers again, judging by their preseason offense and all of the questions surrounding a team that seems to be headed in the wrong direction. But not even the thought of Eli throwing another 27 interceptions can get me down today because it’s the start of the football season.

The first day of football season means the first day of picks, doing longhand addition on the back of bills to create wild parlays, figuring out how to track four fantasy teams without getting the “Stop running this script?” message on a computer, freaking out over a suicide pool in the fourth quarter of the first week, searching for some overseas site that has every NFL game available to watch if you just answer some survey questions, drinking excessive amounts of beer and eating foods that contain little to no nutritional value.

Football is back in my life and so are the New York Football Giants.

When I last left off with the Giants, they won their season finale over the Redskins in front of one of the most embarrassing Week 17 home crowds the Giants have likely ever seen. But when I really left off with the Giants was when they were blowing that Week 12 game against the Cowboys, because after that, the final five weeks of the season were just a formality.

After the Giants won Super Bowl XLII, Plaxico Burress ruined what should have been the next NFL dynasty and the Giants lost their only playoff game in 2008. They missed the playoffs completely in 2009 and 2010 thanks to back-to-back second-half collapses before winning the Super Bowl in 2011. Now they have gone back-to-back years without a trip to the playoffs once again and all I can think is maybe there’s a pattern there.

Football is back and that means so are the weekly picks.

(Home team in caps)

Green Bay +6 over SEATTLE
The Seahawks are going to win on Thursday night because they don’t lose in Seattle and they certainly about to start losing at home on the same night they are raising a Super Bowl banner in their first home game since becoming champions. However, Aaron Rodgers is as healthy as he’s going to be for the next four months and that’s enough for the Packers to cover.

ATLANTA +3 over New Orleans
Here are the last five Saints-Falcons games in Atlanta:

2013 – Week 12: NO 17, ATL 13
2012 – Week 13: ATL 23, NO 13
2011 – Week 10: NO 26, ATL 23 OT
2010 – Week 9: NO 17, ATL 14
2009 – Week 14: NO 26, ATL 23

The Saints have won four of the last five games in Atlanta and all of their wins have been by four points or less. The only Falcons win in there came in a 13-3 season, which should have resulted in Super Bowl appearance if they didn’t blow a 17-point lead in the NFC Championship Game and cost me my 10-to-1 Falcons-Ravens parlay that Sunday. I know how different the Saints are outside of the Superdome, but the Georgia Dome is still a dome and you would think they would play at least near their Superdome abilities, but they were barely able to get by the miserable 2013 Falcons last year with a four-point win. I have been burned too many times by the Saints on the road in the past even if they have been successful of late in Atlanta, and I’m still not over their loss in New England last year.

Minnesota +3.5 over ST. LOUIS
I had to do a double take when I saw this line to make sure I wasn’t reading it backwards or that it hadn’t been posted wrong.

I’m petrified at the thought of picking against Shaun Hill because when he was on the 49ers he cost me a lot of picks. A LOT of picks. I don’t care that Hill is 34 years old and has only attempted 16 passes in the last three years. He could be 56 years old and coming out of a 20-year retirement and starting in this game and I wouldn’t feel comfortable. But it’s time to start collecting on my past losses against Hill and it starts this week.

Cleveland +7 over PITTSBURGH
I’m not sure who told a bigger lie on Wednesday: Wes Welker saying someone slipped something into his drink to produce his positive Molly test or Mike Pettine saying “We’re not going to have a quick hook” when it comes to Brian Hoyer. It’s hard to take Welker at his word when you consider that he looked like this at the Kentucky Derby and that Tom Brady laughed like this when asked if he saw Welker taking anything at the Derby. Brady’s laugh could have meant “Haha, yeah, I’m going to say I watched my suspended friend do drugs,” since that would go over real well for one of the faces of football and for every anti-drug Tom Brady fan on the planet. Or it could have meant “Haha, obviously I watched my friend take drugs because we were partying at the Kentucky Derby.” I think it meant both.

Brian Hoyer is virtually an unknown, having started just two NFL games, and Johnny Manziel is also an unknown having never played one second in the NFL. The difference is that Johnny Football is the new Tim Tebow if Tim Tebow had Manziel’s quarterback abilities. In Week 1 in 2011, it didn’t take Mile High long to start a Rudy-like chant asking for Tebow to play and three weeks later they got their wish when Tebow became the starter. Cleveland has had one winning season in the last 11 years and have made the playoffs once (2002) since returning to the NFL in 1999. It’s going to take a lot less and a lot less time for Browns fans to turn on Hoyer and call for Johnny Football and once those chants start, there’s no stopping them and certainly not a first-year head coach in a job he wasn’t the first choice for. The only reason Manziel isn’t starting is because it’s easier for Pettine to bench Hoyer than it is Manziel.

No one believes Welker and no one believes Pettine.

PHILADELPHIA -11 over Jacksonville
Here are Philadelphia’s last three season-opening opponents: Washington, Cleveland and St. Louis. Apparently things weren’t easy enough for the Eagles to get their seasons rolling with three straight 1-0 starts, so the NFL schedule makers gave them the Jaguars to kick off 2014. So when the Eagles hang 40-something points on the Jaguars on Sunday and for the next week we are forced to hear about how Chip Kelly is a genius and the Eagles’ offense is unstoppable and every trash site that create lists about the “Best” this and “Top” that for content start to compare Nick Foles to all-time greats and the Eagles’ offense to the 2013 Broncos or 2007 Patriots, it will be the NFL schedule makers’ fault. Eff you, NFL schedule makers. Eff you.

NEW YORK JETS -5.5 over Oakland
Here is the Jets’ schedule for their next six games after the Raiders: at Green Bay, Chicago, Detroit, at San Diego, Denver, at New England.

The Jets could easily lose all six of those games, but even if they don’t lose all six of them, it’s going to be very, very hard for them to go even .500 during the gauntlet. The Jets know this and know that if they have any hopes of staying in the playoff hunt through October they HAVE to beat Oakland. And even if they didn’t know this, there’s nothing the Raiders can do about it anyway.

Cincinnati +1.5 over BALTIMORE
Ravens-Bengals seems like it’s becoming what Ravens-Steelers was for so long. And if that’s the case, then I have to go with what I write for every Ravens-Steelers pick:

This game will be decided by three points. And when you know that, how can you not take the points?

CHICAGO -7 over Buffalo
Here is what I said about the Bears in my 2013 NFL Week 1 Picks:

The Bears are the closest things to the Giants in the NFL when you look at their talent and ability to completely destroy a playoff-bound season.

Here is what I said about the Bills in my 2013 NFL Week 1 Picks:

Bills fans don’t like when anyone talks poorly about them or picks against them (even when a spread is involved), but even a Bills fan with the Bills logo tattooed on his neck (someone like this has to exist) or a Bills fan with the Bills logo tattooed on his bald head (someone like this also has to exist) would tell you that the 2013 season is going to be fine.

Both things held true as the Bears blew their season and the Bills were what the Bills have been for basically my entire life. This game and line does feel too good to be true and whenever a game feels too good to be true, it usually is.

HOUSTON -3 over Washington
I want the Redskins to fail, so that when it comes time for Giants-Redskins on Thursday Night Football in Week 4, I can talk to my friend Ray, the biggest Redskins fan I know, and have him in a serious depression.

KANSAS CITY -4 over Tennessee
This line feels low. This game also feels like the one where I’m going to be thinking “Why didn’t I just take the points?” before halftime.

New England -5 over MIAMI
I wanted to take the Dolphins here. I really, really, really wanted to take the Dolphins here. But then I thought about flipping around between games on Sunday at 1:12 p.m. and flipping back to Patriots-Dolphins just in time to see CBS cutting to commercial with their NFL theme music playing and a shot of Tom Brady and Bill Belichick talking on the sidelines as a graphic appears on the screen that says New England 7, Dolphins 0, 13:54, 1st QTR. That exact situation has played out many times and I have tried to avoid being on the wrong end of it.

Carolina +2.5 over TAMPA BAY
I was initially confused about this line because the Panthers went 11-1 after a 1-3 start last season and the Buccaneers became the most dysfunctional team in a league that still has the Raiders. So when I saw the Panthers were 2.5-point underdogs with Cam Newton playing with a hairline fracture in his ribs, I was skeptical and still am. It seems like Vegas is joining the Tampa Bay bandwagon along with a lot of the football world and at least for one week they have me on board, but I’m sitting coach and next to the emergency exit for when I inevitably jump off for Week 2.

San Francisco -5 over DALLAS
If you saw the Cowboys roster and it was listed as the roster for “Team X” and Team X didn’t happen to be a national team with a heavy gambling presence, this line would be a lot higher than 5 for one of the NFL’s elite teams on the road against a team that’s headed for a six- or seven-win season. And I’m going to cherish every minute of the Cowboys’ inevitable miserable season.

DENVER -7.5 over Indianapolis
I honestly believe Peyton Manning has every single play for the entire first quarter already scripted out. If the script comes relatively close to the way it went at home last year for the Broncos then this pick will be fine.

New York Giants +6 over DETROIT
I originally saw this line at DETROIT -3.5 and now it’s moved 2 1/2 points to 6 as everyone watched the Giants’ first offensive team struggle to produce any kind of offense in five preseason games. But even with their struggles as long as Kevin Gilbride doesn’t have a direct connection into Eli Manning’s helmet to tell him to run a draw play on third-and-7 from the opponent’s 47-yard line then I like the Giants’ chances not only to cover in this season-opening game, but all season. (And it’s Week 1, of course I’m not picking against the Giants.)

ARIZONA -3 over San Diego
Maybe one day I won’t be so anti-San Diego and pick against them at any opportunity I get, but that day isn’t today in Week 1.

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Blogs • Giants • NFL

Jan 30, 2014

Super Bowl XLVIII Pick

After an up-and-down picks season that mirrored the Giants’ season, there’s just one pick left to make.

When your team isn’t in the Super Bowl, it’s devastating. Not only because it means your season is over or has been over and there’s no hope at winning the Super Bowl, which should be every fan’s aspiration every season, but because the two weeks between Championship Weekend and Super Bowl Sunday are the two most painful weeks in sports and the conversations and hype won’t involve your team.

The last two weeks have revolved around Richard Sherman’s postgame rant, Marshawn Lynch’s decision to not entertain the media’s unnecessary questions and Peyton Manning’s legacy. If it weren’t for these topics, Radio Row would have spent the last two weeks only reciting weather reports and forecasts. And even with the top-rated offense and defense and the two No. 1 seeds meeting, the weather managed to be the most talked about storyline.

Those who don’t attend the Super Bowl are kept in the loop by the media who do. And when you’re a media member who’s given a free all-expenses-paid trip at the end of January/beginning of February, of course you don’t want to go to New York/New Jersey. You want to be in Miami or New Orleans or San Diego or Tampa or somewhere with a dome and climate control. You want to be able to enjoy the week or two on the company dime and not have to worry about how you’re going to fit coats, jackets, fleeces, hats and gloves in your suitcase or wondering how many pairs of socks you need to wear to go do your job. But it’s a “job” (sort of) and every media member who complained about the weather since arriving in New York/New Jersey should be embarrassed the way those who complain about the quality of coffee on Amtrak should be.

But aside from whether Richard Sherman was out of line or if Marshawn Lynch owes it to anyone to talk about football or if Peyton Manning HAS to win this game or if it will be cold and windy at MetLife Stadium on Sunday, there’s something more important: the last pick of the season.

Looking back at my 2013 picks season is probably something I will only do this once, or rather something I should only do this once. I’m sure Eli Manning doesn’t want to be relive his three INTs in Week 1 or his four INTs in Week 2 or his three INTs in Week 5 or his three INTs in Week 6 or his five INTs in Week 15 and I don’t want to relive this mediocre season. As I said several times throughout the season, my picks season mirrored the Giants’ season, so let’s look back at how I did during the regular season in comparison to the Giants’ scores.

Week 1: Cowboys 36, Giants 31 (3-12-1)
Week 2: Broncos 41, Giants 23 (7-8-1)
Week 3: Panthers 38, Giants 0 (7-8-1)
Week 4: Chiefs 31, Giants 7 (7-7-1)
Week 5: Eagles 36, Giants 21 (5-9-0)
Week 6: Bears 27, Giants 21 (5-9-0)
Week 7: Giants 23, Vikings 7 (9-6-0)
Week 8: Giants 15, Eagles 7 (7-6-0)
Week 9: BYE (6-6-1)
Week 10: Giants 24, Raiders 20 (9-5-0)
Week 11: Giants 27, Packers 13 (5-8-2)
Week 12: Cowboys 24, Giants 21 (4-10-0)
Week 13: Giants 24, Redskins 17 (8-7-1)
Week 14: Chargers 37, Giants 14 (9-7-0)
Week 15: Seahawks 23, Giants 0 (10-5-1)
Week 16: Giants 23, Lions 20 (OT) (3-13-0)
Week 17: Giants 20, Redskins 6 (10-6-0)

So far this postseason, I’m 3-6-1 in the 10 games. And along with the regular season, that’s 265 picks down. One to go.

DENVER -2.5 over Seattle
This pick is more about me wanting Peyton Manning to win than wanting the Broncos to win or the Seahawks to lose.

Four years ago, I rooted hard for Peyton to win his second Super Bowl (not just to make sure that Sean Payton and Jeremy Shockey didn’t win, though it was a large part of it) but for Peyton to cement his own legacy (there’s that word again) as the best quarterback ever. This was for personal reasons created during my time living in Boston in college. But Peyton didn’t win Super Bowl XLIV because of a Pierre Garcon drop, an onside kick and his own pick-six. The following year he was knocked out in the first round by the Jets, the year after that he missed the entire season and then last year his season was ended by a 70-yard, game-tying touchdown pass and a field goal in double overtime.

Peyton Manning is 37 years old and even though he might be getting better with age, he isn’t getting any younger and the number of potential trips to the Super Bowl is dwindling and championship trips aren’t likely to come with as much ease as this one did (Hello, Tom Brady). And with rumors and reports that this could be Peyton’s last game (win or lose, I don’t believe it) because of his neck and health, this might be his last chance to take the title of The Greatest of All Time.

If Eli can’t defend the Manning name on his own field then the right man to do so is Peyton.

Last week: 0-2-0
Playoffs: 3-6-1
Regular Season: 117-138-10

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Blogs • NFL

Jan 3, 2014

My Super Bowl XLVIII Dilemma

The New York Football Giants aren’t going to win Super Bowl XLVIII, so it’s time figure out who it makes sense to root for and against this NFL postseason.

Someone will win Super Bowl XLVIII, but it won’t be the Giants.

With the Giants officially on Day 5 of the offseason (I say “officially” because you could make the case that some of them have been in offseason mode for weeks and some never even left it for the regular season) it’s the eve of the NFL playoffs and Wild-Card Weekend. Since the New York Football Giants aren’t going to the playoffs for the fourth time in five years and therefore won’t be going to The Dance at their own home on Feb. 2, I decided to dust off an idea I had for a column three years ago when I ranked the 12 playoff teams in order from which team I would most like to see win Super Bowl XLVIII to which team I don’t want to see win at all. Here it is:

1. Bengals
What is there not to like about the Bengals? Or should I say, what is there to not like about the Bengals? Unless you really hate gingers and therefore Andy Dalton or want to see the Bengals playoff win drought endure another year, there’s no reason to care if the Bengals win it all.

2. Colts
Out of the entire 2012 Quarterback Breakout Class, it’s possible that Andrew Luck has received the least amount of hype and attention for the player who was drafted first overall, had the highest expectations and career projection coming out of college and was being asked to take over a franchise from Peyton Manning. Luck hasn’t disappointed with back-to-back playoff appearances in his first two years, which were supposed to be rebuilding years in Indianapolis and hasn’t done anything in the spotlight to draw negative attention (at least since becoming a Colt since there was that whole private security detail that he employed on campus at Stanford).

A Colts Super Bowl win means a Chuck Pagano Super Bowl win. It also means a Jim Irsay Super Bowl win and what’s better than having a loudmouth owner who called out (and he had a point with what he said) the Peyton Manning Colts for not winning multiple Super Bowls?

3. Broncos
Three years ago I had the Peyton Manning Colts ranked first, but things have changed. I wouldn’t mind if Peyton got his second ring, but coming in the same year in which his brother threw a league-leading 27 interceptions, as a Giants fan it wouldn’t be the best situation.

If Pierre Garcon didn’t drop a pass that would have broken open Super Bowl XLIV or the Colts weren’t taken by surprise by an onside kick or if Peyton Manning himself didn’t throw a devastating pick-six then Peyton would already have his second ring, would be 2-0 in Super Bowls and considered the greatest ever. Instead he’s just the greatest regular-season quarterback ever not the greatest quarterback ever. I wouldn’t mind if that changed this February, I just wish it wouldn’t have to come in a year when Eli wasn’t so awful.

4. 49ers
The 49ers destroyed my 10-to-1 Championship Games parlay last season when they completed a 17-point comeback against the Falcons and won the NFC. I’m still upset about that when it comes to the 49ers, but nothing else.

5. Panthers
I’m still mad at the Panthers for their Super Bowl XXXVIII loss to the Patriots that gave the Patriots their second Super Bowl in three years. And I’m still mad at the Panthers, well mainly just Jake Delhomme, for destroying that divisional round game against the Cardinals in 2008 with five interceptions, costing me the Panthers -10 pick. But it’s 2013 and the Panthers’ Super Bowl loss to the Patriots was a decade ago (and if the Patriots don’t win Super Bowl XLVIII we will enter 2014 with it being a decade since their last championship despite many acting as though they won it as recently as last February) and Jake Delhomme is no longer a Panther or an NFL quarterback. And wouldn’t you be excited to watch the Panthers’ Super Bowl XLVIII DVD with the story about how Ron Rivera went from as close to being fired as you can be to leading the 1-2 Panthers to a championship?

6. Chiefs
If the Chiefs win the Super Bowl then that means the Eagles didn’t win the Super Bowl and it means Andy Reid has won a Super Bowl and the Philadelphia Eagles organization still hasn’t and that means chaos for the city of Philadelphia and Eagles fans. But if the Chiefs win the Super Bowl it means that Alex Smith was the quarterback who led them there and I’m not sure I want anything to do with a sport in which Alex Smith is a winner and possibly Super Bowl MVP.

7. Saints
Jeremy Shockey isn’t there to win another Super Bowl, so the Saints have moved up from their No. 8 spot in 2010. And without Shockey there, aside from Sean Payton wearing a visor, I have nothing against the Saints except for how they screwed me in the final minute against the Patriots and how they screwed me again against the Jets. The only reason I don’t want the Saints to win the Super Bowl is because everything I have come to believe about them and written about them and how they are a different team outside the Superdome will all be meaningless. And that’s because if the Saints win the Super Bowl, they will have won four road games and four outdoor games and that’s a scientific impossibility.

8. Seahawks
In a world where college coaches will do anything and I mean anything to get a better job, Pete Carroll is the poster boy for how to get ahead after he left USC with a two-year bowl ban and the elimination of 30 football scholarships for another shot at the NFL. Back in 2010, I didn’t care if the Seahawks won the Super Bowl (despite those things) and had them ranked third, but they aren’t entering the playoffs as a 7-9 division winner looking to make a mockery of the NFL’s postseason format, so that’s why they have fallen.

9. Packers
Here’s what I wrote about the Packers in my Week 15 Picks:

Since Aaron Rodgers has become the Packers starting quarterback, here’s how their seasons have finished:

2008: Missed playoffs
2009: Lost in Wild-Card round
2010: Won Super Bowl
2011: Lost in divisional round (first game)
2012: Lost in divisional round after beating Joe Webb and the Vikings in the Wild-Card round

So in the last five years with Rodgers as the starter, the Packers have won five playoff games with four of them coming in the same year. And if the “Miracle at the Meadowlands” doesn’t happen, the Packers don’t even make the playoffs in 2010 let alone win the Super Bowl.

I wrote all that because I was trying to show that Aaron Rodgers isn’t worthy of the “Best Player in the League” title he has seemingly been given in a league that boasts maybe the best two quarterbacks in the history of the game and the most dominant running back since Barry Sanders. And after two months without him playing, all it took was one season-saving 48-yard touchdown pass for everyone to push Peyton Manning, Tom Brady and Adrian Peterson and others like Drew Brees and LeSean McCoy aside for the Aaron Rodgers Is The Best campaign to return to form.

10. Chargers
In the same season in which Eli Manning threw 27 interceptions and lost to Philip Rivers and the Giants went 7-9 and missed the playoffs, it would be very bad if Rivers and the Chargers then went on to win the Super Bowl. I want the 2013 Giants season to be gone and forgotten and right now that process has started, but if the team Eli Manning said he wouldn’t play for and the quarterback the Giants would have possibly then had win the Super Bowl, Eli Manning and especially 2013 Eli Manning will be at the forefront of Super Bowl storylines for the next month.

11. Patriots
I once wrote how a Red Sox-Mets World Series would be the worst possible championship scenario for me and I’m thankful that I was only a month old when that scenario was created in 1986. My last two teams present the second-worst possible championship scenario for me.

Nothing has changed for me and my feelings for the Patriots over the last three years and because of that, here is what I wrote about them then:

There is no way I want the Patriots to win the Super Bowl. None at all. I would rather walk across the George Washington Bridge naked, during rush hour, while it’s freezing rain than see the Patriots win.

However, a Patriots’ championship would put a serious damper on the possibility of adding more chapters to The Last Night of the Patriots Dynasty book that I plan to write with Mike Hurley.

12. Eagles
This is my nightmare! Well, it’s just one of my nightmares. My real nightmare happened in October and October 2007 and October 2004. My hatred for the Eagles is so strong that last week I found myself rooting for the Cowboys in the winner-take-all Week 17 game and actually felt a little depressed after Kyle Orton ended the game with a Tony Romo-esque interception. That’s what the Eagles can do to me. They can make me not only root for the nearly-equally-hated Cowboys, but also have a Cowboys loss negatively change my mood when I should be happy and celebrating Jerry Jones’ Dallas disaster going another year without a Super Bowl.

If Philadelphia trades Cliff Lee to the Yankees between now and Super Bowl XLVIII I’m willing to at least think about changing their spot. But without The One That Got Away holding a Yankee Stadium press conference between now and Feb. 2, I want to hear anything but “Fly, Eagles Fly.”

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Blogs • Giants

Jan 2, 2014

NFL Wild-Card Weekend Picks

The regular season is over and that means the Giants’ season is over, but it also means the postseason is here and so are the postseason picks.

While this past Monday served as Black Monday for many head coaches around the league, it held a different meaning for New York Football Giants fans like myself. This past Monday was a reminder that the Giants won’t be playing this weekend (even if didn’t matter if they were playing for the last five weekends) and they won’t be playing again until next September. If you were to get pregnant or get someone pregnant today, there’s a chance your baby would be born (a little premature) by the time the Giants play their next real game. The Monday following Week 17 has now meant nothing for the Giants in four of the last five seasons.

The only news to come from the Giants since their season ended with a win over the Redskins (a game that was played in such miserable weather conditions that any fan who attended the game needs to seriously reevaluate their life and priorities and think about doing something constructive on Sundays rather than watching a 6-9 team face a 3-12 team in a monsoon) is that Eli Manning will likely get an extension despite his historically bad season. (If only all jobs could be handled this way.) For the Giants and their fans, January will once again be a depressing month with no non-monetary-related rooting interest in the playoffs. The only positive to come out of the worst Giants season in a decade is the reported retirement of offensive coordinator Kevin Gilbride. Aside from that, there’s no point in looking back at the disastrous season that started 0-6, but could have been saved in Week 12 against the Cowboys.

The holidays are over and it’s January, which begins the two-month winter gauntlet (though this year is a little less gauntlet-ish thanks to Winter Olympics hockey) before spring training and March Madness carry us into Opening Day. And what better way to kick January off than with a New York City blizzard that’s supposed to start on Thursday night? How about a high temperature on Friday of 17 degrees and a low of 4 degrees? Yes, it’s officially winter and that means the NFL postseason is here and so are the NFL Playoff Picks.

INDIANAPOLIS -2 over Kansas City
Let me start this by saying that the first thing I did when the lines came out for Wild-Card Weekend was to see what a parlay with the four underdogs (Chiefs, Saints, Chargers and Packers) is worth and it’s 29-to-1 odds. Unfortunately, I’m only a believer in one of the four underdogs this weekend.

The Chiefs have had an odd calendar year, considering they finished 2-14 in 2012, which was good enough for worst in the NFL and landed them the No. 1 pick. Then they hired Andy Reid, traded for Alex Smith, started the season 9-0 and finished the season 11-5. When it comes to looking at the 2013 Chiefs, they were essentially two teams: the Pre-Bye Chiefs and Post-Bye Chiefs.

The Pre-Bye Chiefs were 9-0 and never allowed more than 17 points in game and allowed a total of 111 points (an average of 12.3 per game). The Post-Bye Chiefs were 2-5, only beating the Redskins and Raiders, and allowed 194 points (an average of 27.7 per game). The Chiefs’ pre-bye success was presumably built by their defense, but in reality, it was built by their schedule that included home games against the Cowboys, Giants, Raiders, Texans and Browns and road games against the Jaguars, Michael Vick Eagles, Titans and Bills. The Chiefs went 1-5 against playoff teams this season and their only win came in Week 3 against the Michael Vick Eagles in a game in which the Eagles had five turnovers.

When these two teams meet on Saturday, it will only have been 13 days since the Colts ran the Chiefs out of Arrowhead with a 23-7 win thanks to four Chiefs turnovers. But it’s not only because of this recent result or how shaky the Post-Bye Chiefs have been that I’m taking the Colts here. It’s also because of how Andy Reid chose to play Week 17 against the Chargers.

Sure, the JV Chiefs nearly beat the This-Game-Means-Everything Chargers in San Diego, but Reid did that game, the game of football as a whole, the playoff picture and his own team a disservice by playing the “B” team and not trying to do everything he could to win the game and eliminate the Chargers. The Chiefs earned the right to play (or not play) their Week 17 game however they chose, but history tells us that using Week 17 as a bye week and taking your foot off the gas entering January usually backfires.

New Orleans +2.5 over PHILADELPHIA
Here is what I said about the Saints in my Week 16 Picks:

If this game were at the Superdome, I would be all about the Saints like always. But on the road, I’m going against them … like always.

Here is what I said about the Saints in my Week 15 Picks:

Inside the Superdome, the Saints are the best team in the NFL. Outside the Superdome, the Saints are one of the 10 worst teams in the league and maybe even worse than that.

Here is what I said about the Saints in my Week 14 Picks:

The Saints’ last home loss with Sean Payton as head coach came in Week 17 in 2010 when they had nothing to play for. Including the playoffs, the Saints have won their last 15 home games since that loss and here are their margins of victory going back from Week 4 in 2013 to Week 2 in 2011 with Payton as head coach: 21, 24, 6, 17, 28, 29, 14, 25, 11, 55, 7, 17, 18, 32 and 3.

Here is what I said about the Saints in my Week 13 Picks:

It’s the battle for home-field advantage in the NFC playoffs with the current 1-seed playing the current 2-seed. If this game were in the Superdome, there’s no doubt the Saints would win. It’s actually a guarantee they would win. But like always, when you take the Saints out of the Superdome they aren’t the Saints.

Here is what I said about the Saints in my Week 12 Picks:

It’s never a good idea to trust the Saints to cover outside of the Superdome.

I could keep going, but I think the pattern is pretty easy to pick up. The Superdome Saints were 8-0 this year with an average win of 34.0-15.6. The Outside-the-Superdome Saints were 3-5 with an average loss of 22.4-17.8.

Absolutely everything about this game says, “Don’t pick the Saints, Neil! Don’t pick the effing Saints, Neil!” in the same voice that Eli uses to yell his feelings to Matthew about sleeping with Danielle in The Girl Next Door. But guess what: I’m not listening to stats and logic and everything I have written about the Saints in 2013 and I’m not listening to Eli.

There are two teams I desperately don’t want to see win the Super Bowl: the Patriots and Eagles. And since I’m driving the anti-Eagles bandwagon, I’m going to let my fandom interfere with math and science and the Saints’ recent postseason history and pick solely against the Eagles because they’re the Eagles.

CINCINNATI -7 over San Diego
The worst game of Wild-Card Weekend features the team that has screwed with me more this year than any other team: Ladies and gentlemen, the Cincinnati Bengals! Like the Saints, the Bengals can be viewed as two teams: the Cincinnati Bengals and the Outside Cincinnati Bengals.

The Cincinnati Bengals went 8-0 this year with an average win of 31.9-16.8. The Outside Cincinnati Bengals went 3-5 with an average loss of 21.4-19.4. At home, the Bengals beat three playoff teams in the Packers, Patriots and Colts. On the road, they lost to the Bears, Browns, Dolphins, Ravens and Steelers and needed overtime to beat the Bills. (As you can tell, none of those teams are still playing.) But what the Outside Cincinnati Bengals did doesn’t matter this week and won’t come into play until next weekend when they will either travel to Denver or New England. And the Bengals will still be playing next weekend because they get to face the We-Are-Kind-Of-Hot-Entering-The-Playoffs-But-Also-Backed-Into-The-Playoffs Chargers.

Yes, the Chargers won four straight and five of six to finish the season, but they also needed Ryan Succop to miss a 41-yard field goal to beat the Chiefs’ JV team in a home game with their season on the line. If not for that missed field goal with four seconds left, the Pittsburgh Steelers would be in the playoffs, and the Chargers’ season would have ended at the hands of quarterback Chase Daniel, who entered the Week 17 game with eight career passing attempts. The Chargers lost 17-10 at home to the Bengals just five weeks ago in Week 13. And when you’re losing to the Outside Cincinnati Bengals, things aren’t going to be easier against the Cincinnati Bengals.

The Bengals’ last playoff win came during the 1990 season on Jan. 6, 1991. This Sunday, one day shy of 23 years, the drought will be over.

San Francisco -3 over GREEN BAY
The forecast calls for a high of 0 degrees and a low of -18 degrees on Sunday in Green Bay. Knowing that, I think Tom Coughlin might be content with the way the Giants’ season ended since they won’t be playing in Lambeau Field this January, which is probably for the best given his skin’s reaction to the Wisconsin winter in January 2008 and January 2012.

It’s been a while since the Aaron Rodgers Packers were home underdogs and when the two teams met let year in the divisional round in San Francisco, the 49ers were only 3-point favorites at home.

The Packers were 5-2 before Aaron Rodgers broke his collarbone and during his absence they needed two one-point wins (Week 14 over Atlanta and Week 15 over Dallas) to be put in a winner-take-all Week 17 game in Chicago. And in that game last week, the Packers had a fourth-and-8 for their season on the Bears’ 48-yard line in the final minutes that resulted in a 48-yard touchdown pass from first-game-back Aaron Rodgers to first-game-back Randall Cobb. What I’m trying to say is the Packers hit an in the words of Ilya Bryzgalov “humongous big” parlay to reach the playoffs and possibly even more “humongous big” than the parlay they hit in 2010 to reach the playoffs (thanks in large part to the “Miracle at the Meadowlands”) before winning the Super Bowl. And thanks to the NFL’s imperfect playoff format, at 8-7-1, they get to host a 12-4 team.

The 49ers’ four losses this season all came against worthy opponents. They lost in Seattle, where every team not from Arizona loses. They lost to the Colts, who I called the weirdest team in the NFL since they knocked off not only the 49ers, but also the Seahawks and Broncos this season, while losing to the Dolphins, Chargers and Rams. Following their bye, they lost to a top-ranked Panthers defense by one point (10-9). And they lost 23-20 to the Saints in New Orleans, which included a very controversial penalty, and since you know my feelings on the Superdome Saints, any loss under seven points in New Orleans is basically a win for the road team.

Usually every team has at least one letdown game during the year (and in the case of the 2007 Patriots, it comes in the Super Bowl … yes, I had to) and for the 49ers, you would have to say it came in their 27-7 Week 3 loss to the Colts since their 29-3 Week 2 loss to the Seahawks happened in Seattle. But since Week 3, the 49ers have been as good and consistent as any team in the league.

Last week: 10-6-0
Regular Season: 114-132-9

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Blogs

Dec 24, 2013

My Christmas Wish List

I won’t be getting playoff football this year, so that means I will have to ask for some other things this Christmas.

When I put together my Christmas list for this year, I didn’t bother to ask for anything to do with the New York Football Giants. At 6-9, their season has been lost since their Week 12 loss to the Cowboys and this season marks the fourth time in five years the Giants won’t play in the postseason.

After reaching the playoffs in each of the first four years of Eli Manning’s career as the full-time starting quarterback (2005-08), the Giants’ lone playoff trip since their loss in the 2008 divisional round as the No. 1 seed was in 2011 when they won the Super Bowl. I’m very grateful for the two Super Bowls since 2007 and that Eli Manning and Tom Coughlin prevented Tom Brady and Bill Belichick from being 5-0 in the Super Bowl and football immortality as the best quarterback-coach combination in history. But at this time of the year with the Cowboys and Eagles playing for the NFC East title and the Bears, Packers, Panthers, Saints, Seahawks, 49ers, Cardinals, Patriots, Dolphins, Bengals, Ravens, Steelers, Colts, Broncos, Chiefs and Chargers all playing for something this Sunday, it’s not fun being on the outside looking in.

Yes, it’s another Week 17 of wondering what could have been, but I’m not going to let the Giants ruin Christmas since they already ruined October and November (the Yankees ruined September). And if I can’t have playoff football this year, which I can’t, then this is what I want.

Something That Resembles A Starting Rotation That Can Compete In the AL East
If it seems like I have asked for that before, it’s because I have. Back in 2010, I asked for the same exact thing after the Yankees lost out on Cliff Lee and I was staring at a potential rotation of CC Sabathia, Phil Hughes, A.J. Burnett, Ivan Nova and at the time no one else. (That’s right, Phil Hughes, coming off an 18-win season, was going to be the Yankees’ No. 2 starter.) Thankfully Bartolo Colon decided to get some “help” and Freddy Garcia reinvented himself and the Yankees won 97 games and the AL East before the heart of the order went missing in a five-game series loss to the Tigers in the ALDS.

So far this offseason the Yankees have signed Jacoby Ellsbury, Brian McCann, Carlos Beltran and Brian Roberts and lost Robinson Cano to the Mariners. The November 2013 Yankees are better than the September 2013 Yankees were and are better in theory than the 2013 Yankees were ever going to be at their healthiest point. But the rotation is still a problem just like it was at this time last year and the year before that.

The best free-agent options for the rotation are Matt Garza, Ervin Santana, Ubaldo Jimenez, Bronson Arroyo, Paul Maholm and …. wait for it …. wait for it …. wait for it … A.J. Burnett! The only one of these six options I would be OK with would be Garza, but even then he’s going to command (and receive) a ridiculous contract in this market for someone who has a career .500 record (67-67), a 3.84 ERA and has started only 42 games over the last two years.

Brian Cashman said going into this winter that he was going to have to find 400 innings from somewhere and I don’t think the Yankees are going to sign one of the “top” free agents just because they are the best available right now like they would have in the past with Carl Pavano or Jaret Wright or Burnett. That means that “somewhere” will likely be from within the organization and some combination of the current favorites Michael Pineda, David Phelps and Adam Warren. Unless, the Yankees can give me the next thing on my list …

Cliff Lee
Yes, three years later I’m still asking for Cliff Lee. I don’t need to explain it. Just read this. But since Lee isn’t exactly realistic, I will ask for someone who is …

Masahiro Tanaka
I know nothing about Masahiro Tanaka other than from searching “Masahiro Tanaka” on YouTube and watching a video titled “Best of Mashahiro Tanaka” that is synced to what sounds like nearly four minutes of an instrumental version of a song by The Offspring. But I’m going to guess that the only knowledge most North American “experts” who talk about how good Tanaka is happens to be this same exact video. No one knows for sure how Tanaka’s Japanese success will translate to the majors and given the history of highly coveted Japanese pitchers coming to North America, there’s a better chance that Tanaka will be more like Daisuke Matsuzaka than Yu Darvish. But as long as he’s not Kei Igawa (I haven’t typed that name in so long), I’ll take him.

2013-14 Henrik Lundqvist To Be 2011-12 Henrik Lundqvist
Since signing his seven-year extension, Henrik Lundqvist is 2-4-2. I’m not sure if you want your franchise player, who you recently locked up through 2020-21 to be saying he “kind of expected” that a rookie backup would be starting in place of him for the second consecutive game and night. And after recording two wins and allowing just two goals combined in 48 hours, I’m not sure that Alain Vigneault is necessarily going to go back to Lundqvist over Cam Talbot on Friday night in Washington.

Lundqvist has admitted to over-anticipating plays and being jumpy and it has shown this season. While it’s hard to fault him for a five-goal loss to the Islanders on Friday night when you consider they were getting shorthanded breakaways and odd-man rushes left and right, he isn’t bailing out the team that way he used to. And because Lundqvist isn’t bailing out his team the way he used to, it brings me to the next thing I’m asking for …

A New Rangers Defense
I asked for this last because this is going to be the most unrealistic of them all. It would be like asking for Xbox One and PlayStation 4 this year.

Since 2008-09, the Rangers’ problem has been scoring goals, but now with Lundvist struggling and having a down year so far, preventing goals is even more of a problem. And if Lundqvist is going to be more human-like than King-like this season, the Rangers aren’t going anywhere because they don’t have the defense (especially with Marc Staal injured) many thought they did. Through the first 46 percent of the season, Lundqvist hasn’t been bailing out the incompetence of the Rangers defense the way he has through his entire career. But rather than focus on his entire career, let’s focus on since 2011-12 when the current Rangers defensive core started to become the foundation of the defense.

We all know that I don’t think the 2011-12 Rangers were worthy of the Eastern Conference’s No. 1 seed or as close as “two wins away from the Stanley Cup Final” as they technically were. They earned the top seed and won two series in Game 7 before losing the Devils in six because of Henrik Lundqvist. Not because of their offense and certainly not because of their defense. Lundqvist made everyone believe Dan Girardi was an All-Star and that Michael Del Zotto could be trusted in his own zone the same way Sidney Crosby has made everyone believe Chris Kunitz is some kind of superstar despite his career season-high in goals being 26 and now as a linemate of Number 87, he has 20 goals in just 39 games.

Prior to Lundqvist signing an extension, there was a worrying sense that overpaying Lundqvist would cost the Rangers a chance at re-signing Girardi this offseason. But right now I’m not sure anyone would want to sign Girardi. When he’s not falling down or giving the puck away, he’s busy scoring goals against his team, a stat which he must lead the league in by at least 15.

As for Del Zotto, it’s pretty obvious his time with the Rangers is dwindling. When the Rangers beat the Maple Leafs on Monday night at the Garden, I watched Del Zotto intently as the Rangers saluted from center ice and wondered if Del Zotto was thinking it could be one of the last times he would salute the MSG crowd. If it is, the Rangers will be a better team.

Merry Christmas!

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