Drew Brees – Keefe To The City

Oct 1, 2015

NFL Week 4 Picks

After surviving Week 2, Week 3 was one for the history books, but now the bar has been set to try to continue to produce equally successful weeks. It’s not an easy job, but someone has to do it.

The good part about your team playing on Thursday Night Football is that you only have to wait four days until the team’s next game. The bad part about your team playing on Thursday Night Football is that you then have to wait 10 days until they play again. But that’s not necessarily bad for the Giants since their early-season Thursday game serves as nearly a bye week, giving them time to rest and prepare for the Bills.

The Giants are in a perfect position to go on a run and take control of the NFC East with Tony Romo and Dez Bryant out for a couple months, the Eagles having no identity and a bad offense with a greatly underachieving DeMarco Murray and the Redskins being the Redskins. After the Week 1 meltdown in Dallas, I figured that loss would eventually mean the Giants would have to battle for a wild-card berth, but the NFC East once again is proving to be a gongshow for another season, and that’s exactly what the Giants need.

Last week was a memorable one. A 13-3 week with the picks that included a Giants win over the Redskins is about as good as it gets when it comes to the always unpredictable NFL. After surviving Week 2, Week 3 was one for the history books, but now the bar has been set to try to continue to produce equally successful weeks. It’s not an easy job, but someone has to do it.

(Home team in caps)

PITTSBURGH +3 over Baltimore
Michael Vick doesn’t really want to play football anymore. He wants to collect a paycheck to practice during the week and then watch Steelers games from the sidelines on Sundays (and sometimes Mondays and a Thursday). It was the same story when he was with the Jets and when he finally had to go into a game, he looked like someone who hadn’t prepared to play an actual snap for the season. But even for as bad as Vick has looked and has been, the Ravens are worse. They are 0-3 for the first time under John Harbaugh, their defense has been embarrassed and their offense has been non-existent. Aside from all of that, you always take the points in Steelers-Ravens games. It’s just the smart thing to do.

Last season, the Ravens won 26-6 and the Steelers won 43-23. In 2013, the Steelers won 19-16 and the Ravens won 22-20. In 2012, the Ravens won 13-10 and the Steelers won 23-20. In 2011, the Ravens won 35-7 and 23-20. In 2010, the Ravens won 17-14 and the Steelers won 13-10. In 2009, the Ravens won 20-17 in overtime and the Steelers won 23-20. In 2008, the Steelers won 23-20 in overtime and 13-9.

Last season was an anomaly, but including last season, in the last 14 meetings between the two teams, 10 of the games have been decided by three points or less and eight of them have been decided by exactly three points. Even without Ben Roethlisberger, you have to take the Steelers at home getting 3.

New York Jets -2 over MIAMI
Last week, I said the following about the Jets.

Now not only are the Jets not going to start the season 1-3, they might be 4-0 heading into their bye and with the Redskins on the schedule in Week 6, they might be 5-0 heading to New England. Nearly five years after we got the 9-2 Jets against the 9-2 Patriots on Monday Night Football, we might get the 5-0 Jets against the 5-0 Patriots this season.

So how did they repay my positivity about them? By losing at home to the Eagles, which screwed up the NFC East even more and hurt the Giants, in a game that included one of the dumbest decisions I have ever seen by Brandon Marshall on an unnecessary lateral that turned into a fumble. It felt like the same old Jets and after that fumble I expected the camera to pan to the sidelines and for Rex Ryan to be standing there.

But Rex isn’t there and Todd Bowles is and it was his first bad game as Jets head coach even if he couldn’t control Marshall’s decision making or Ryan Fitzpatrick’s ineffectiveness. And even thought the Jets looked awful in a home loss, they won’t spiral out of control the way they would have if Rex were still there. That’s partly because of Bowles and partly because the Dolphins are atrocious.

So far the Dolphins barely got past the Redskins (who are 1-2) in Week 1, lost to the Jaguars (who are 1-2 and lost to the Patriots 51-17) in Week 2 and were run out of their own building by the Bills in Week 3. Here’s what I said about the Dolphins in Week 1:

For the last few years, we have been hearing about how the Dolphins will challenge the Patriots in the AFC East and each time they have failed. This year, the Dolphins are supposed to be even better and once again challenge the Patriots and reach the postseason for the first time since 2008.

Well, the Dolphins are once again an underachieving and mediocre team, and mediocre might be generous. A week after they couldn’t win a division game at home, actually scratch that … A week after they couldn’t even compete in a division game at home, they’re now going to go across the Atlantic and beat the Jets on a neutral field. OK, sure.

Jacksonville +9 over INDIANAPOLIS
The best thing to happen in Week 3 was the Jaguars getting blown out in New England, so that this line would be made too high, and it is. The Colts are a bad team that celebrated their Week 3 win over the Titans the way they would have likely celebrated their AFC Championship win over the Patriots had they won (or even made it a game). The Jaguars aren’t good, but neither are the Colts, and for the Colts to be giving 9 points to any team after back-to-back losses to open the season and barely pulling out a two-point win in Tennessee. Despite being favorites in their first three games, the Colts have yet to cover, considering they lost two of them, and I’m continuing to sell hard on the Colts.

Houston +7 over ATLANTA
I don’t really think the Falcons are good. That isn’t exactly something normal to say about an undefeated 3-0 team with two road wins already on the season, but like saying goes, “It’s not about who you play, it’s about when you play them.” So far the Falcons got the inept Eagles at home in Week 1, the Giants’ clock management problems in Week 2 and a Tony Romo- and Dez Bryant-less Cowboys team in Week 3. The Falcons deserve credit for winning all three games and for coming from behind down multiple possessions in the last two, but those aren’t exactly impressive wins and even with Julio Jones catching everything thrown within 10 feet of him, the Falcons just aren’t anything special. They might beat the Texans and improve to 4-0, but they aren’t going to do it by blowing them out because that’s not who the Falcons are.

Carolina -3.5 over TAMPA BAY
The Panthers are the most under-the-radar 3-0 team ever. I had to check to make sure they were 3-0 because that’s how little I have heard about them and their undefeated start to the season. Even though their wins are against Jacksonville, Houston and New Orleans, they’re still wins and the Panthers have the luxury of playing in the NFC South where only Atlanta will give them any sort of competition. I might shy away from picking the Panthers if they were being talked about and hyped as much as any other 3-0 team would, but as long as the Panthers continue to go unnoticed, there’s nothing to be worried about with a potential trap line.

New York Giants +5.5 over BUFFALO
The return of Victor Cruz had me dreaming of the possibilities of Odell Beckham Jr. and Cruz being unstoppable since we have never really seen the two play together. (The duo played just one game together last season before Cruz injured his knee.) But after suffering a setback with his calf in practice on Wednesday, Cruz probably won’t play again this week in Buffalo, and if he doesn’t, he will have already missed 25 percent of the season.

On the Bills’ side, Rex Ryan told Mike Francesa on Wednesday that both LeSean McCoy and Sammy Watkins are likely out for the game. That leaves the game pretty much up to the Bills’ defense, which let the Patriots put up 507 yards against them at home, so the aura of Ralph Wilson Stadium being a touch place to play just because the Colts couldn’t do anything isn’t exactly true.

Oakland -3 over CHICAGO
When was the last time the Raiders were a road favorite? LOOK IT UP. This line feels way too low after watching Jimmy Clausen and the Bears punt on all 10 of their possessions against the Seahawks last week. I’m not sure how the Bears are ever going to score with Clausen at quarterback unless Robbie Gould starts drilling 70-yard field goals. But even then, Clausen would have to move the ball to the Bears’ 47 and I’m not sure if that’s possible. After trading Jared Allen, it’s clear the Bears are about to begin a fire sale and it has been suggested that they trade Matt Forte, who is in the last year of his contract and approaching 30. If Forte wasn’t in the last year of his contract, I would advise the Bears to make him inactive for every game for the rest of the season and save his legs for next year, but since he is, they should trade him. Why should the Bears have an elite running back? It’s like a 60-win baseball team having an elite closer. Trade Forte.

WASHINGTON +3.5 over Philadelphia
Kirk Cousins says he couldn’t sleep over his non-touchdown passes to Jordan Reed on Thursday Night Football last week. That’s good because it shows Cousins’ head is in the right place, but it’s not good because he needs his sleep to win this game.

I’m rooting for the Redskins to win because they are less of a threat to the Giants in the NFC East and a Redskins win would give Philadelphia two division losses. I want the NFC East to become a two-team race between the Giants and Cowboys and without Romo and Bryant for a while, the Giants will have the opportunity to take a commanding lead. Will they take advantage of this opportunity? Of course not. But I can dream.

Kansas City +4.5 over CINCINNATI
The old me would see this line, remember that the Chiefs are 1-2 and Ryan Mallett starting over Brian Hoyer in Week 1 from being 0-3, and remember that the Bengals are 3-0 and instantly pick the Bengals. But not the new me. Not the me that has created a “Just Say No to the B’s” campaign. Those B’s are the Bengals, Bears and Browns. So I’m saying no to the Bengals and there isn’t an amount of peer pressure that could get me to change my mind.

SAN DIEGO -7.5 over Cleveland
If you just read my rule about the B’s in the last pick then you already know. However, there is one exception to that rule and that is when Johnny Manziel starts, the Browns aren’t part of it. Johnny Football is once again on the bench, so I’m saying no to the Browns and I hope they lose in a rout.

Green Bay -9.5 over SAN FRANCISCO
Carlos Hyde ran all over the Vikings in Week 1 and had the best week of any running back in the NFL in his debut as the 49ers starter. The next week he got hurt against the Steelers and when he was ready to come back in, he was held out because the score was lopsided. Last week, due to another lopsided score, he was held out for most of the game again. This week, the 49ers are playing the best team and the best offense in the NFC. There’s a good chance we’re headed for another game in which Hyde watches from the sidelines to preserve his health and legs for future games. There are going to be a lot of games like that for the 49ers this season, but the problem is that Hyde is the 49ers offense, so without him they don’t have a chance.

DENVER -7 over Minnesota
The Vikings are 2-1 thanks to two home wins, but I didn’t like what I saw from them in their season opener on the road in San Francisco against a team that has been outscored 90-25 in the last two weeks. I don’t know how I’m supposed to take the Vikings in Denver against Peyton Manning and that defense and feel confident with a 7-point spread. I’m going to have to see Teddy Bridgewater and the Vikings offense a little more away from Minnesota before I start to back the Vikings on the road. (Sorry, Britt. Don’t worry, I like sleeping on the couch.)

ARIZONA -7 over St. Louis
The Cardinals are the real deal. Two years ago, they were a 10-win team that didn’t make the playoffs. Last season, they were a true contender in the NFC until Carson Palmer got hurt and Drew Stanton got hurt and they were left starting Ryan Lindley, who threw for 82 yards, in their playoff game at Carolina. Bruce Arians and the Cardinals deserve better and so far this season they have proven that they are at the top of the NFC with the Packers and are better than their their division rival Seahawks. I’m going to enjoy taking the Cardinals for a touchdown or less for as long as Vegas wants to give away a free pick and free money.

NEW ORLEANS -5 over Dallas
It’s the possibly Drew Brees-less Saints against the Tony Romo-less Cowboys on Sunday Night Football. NBC must be thrilled about the state of these two teams for their primetime game though probably not as thrilled as Brees was when he found out Jimmy Graham was traded to Seattle.

The Superdome Saints are no more. When you lose to Jameis Winston and the Buccaneers in the Superdome, that theory goes away. Instead the Saints are now an 0-3 team with a loss this week away from having their season over with 75 percent of the schedule remaining. If there’s any truth to the idea of a desperate team coming to play and winning a game, this is it. What better way to turn your season around than on national TV in the manic Superdome with Drew Brees returning to the field.

SEATTLE -10 over Detroit
I’m not sure if Jim Caldwell’s job is in trouble with the Lions being winless since I’m not sure how Jim Caldwell was hired to be the Lions head coach to begin with. Maybe that postseason appearance last year is enough to buy Caldwell some time, but that time might be erased in the coming weeks. After the Lions lose in Seattle, they host Arizona, Chicago and Minnesota and then go to Kansas City before their Week 9 bye. That has 1-8, maybe 2-7 at best, written all over it.

Last week: 13-3-0
Season: 29-18-1

Blogs • Email Exchanges • Giants

Sep 5, 2014

Giants-Lions Looks Lopsided

The Giants and Lions open the season against each on Monday Night Football and both teams are at a crossroads this year.

The New York Football Giants are back. The good news is that the Giants enter the season with no expectations at all. Well, no positive expectations. The only expectations the team has is that they might actually be worse than they were a year ago when they started the season 0-6 and finished 7-9. How is that good news? That’s good news because the Giants thrive when there aren’t any expectations attached to them. If they were being picked to go 12-4 and win the NFC East then I would worry about them. The bad news is that if the people who are saying the Giants could be looking at their worst season since 2004 are right then football season isn’t going to fun for me or any Giants fan.

With the Giants’ season kicking off on Monday night in Detroit, I did an email exchange with Sean Yuille of Pride of Detroit to talk about having Jim Caldwell as his team’s head coach, and what we can expect on Monday night.

Keefe: Last season, the Lions were 6-3 before losing six of their last seven games to finish 7-9 and miss out on the postseason, which led to the firing of Jim Schwartz. I had forgotten about Schwartz since last season and it wasn’t until the Giants’ Hall of Fame Game against the Bills in August when I saw him as the defensive coordinator for the Bills did it hit me that he is no longer with the Lions. And then I remembered that Jim Caldwell is now the head coach of the Lions. Jim Caldwell! The seemingly most lost head coach to ever put on a headset in the NFL, who at times looks confused as to why he is on the sidelines of an NFL game.

It seems like this core of Lions players are entering a crossroads season where they will either get back to the playoffs for the first time since 2011 or lead another head coach to be fired. The team might have the most talent in the entire league, but hasn’t been able to put it together and consistently win and now they are asking Caldwell to lead them in doing so.

I’m still in shock that Caldwell is coaching the Lions, but it doesn’t matter to me since they’re not my team. However, they are your team and Caldwell is your head coach. And while it was definitely time for Schwartz to go, are you on board with Caldwell?

Yuille: I am now. When he was first hired? Not so much. At the time, I had a lot of the same thoughts as you about Caldwell. He was a disappointing hire, especially after the team was seemingly spurned by Ken Whisenhunt, who ended up taking the Titans’ job instead. Generally speaking, the Caldwell hire was an uninspiring one, and the Lions’ overall coaching search was quite uninspiring as well.

Quickly, I warmed up to the hire once Caldwell outlined his vision for the Lions and put together his coaching staff. It obviously remains to be seen if this will all lead to success, but he brought in a lot of promising coordinators and position coaches, and unlike Jim Schwartz, he seems to actually be focused on fixing the Lions’ biggest weaknesses in order for them to take the next step.

Keefe: Last season in Week 1, I thought the Giants might have the most explosive offense in the league following their 31-point effort in Dallas, despite losing the game, with Eli Manning throwing for 450 yards, Victor Cruz having 118 receiving yards and Hakeem Nicks having 114. But then Eli decided to throw more interceptions than touchdowns, Cruz didn’t break 1,000 yards and Nicks didn’t find the end zone once all season.

When I look at the Lions’ offense and see Matthew Stafford, Calvin Johnson, Golden Tate and Reggie Bush, I have nightmares thinking about how the Giants are going to force the Lions to punt even a single time on Monday. There has been a lot of hype around the Giants’ secondary and how it could possibly be the best in the league, and in Week 1 it’s going to have to be to slow down the Lions’ receivers.

How excited are you to watch about the Lions’ offense?

Yuille: I’m both excited and nervous at the same time. On the one hand, it will be nice to see Golden Tate and Eric Ebron on the field in a regular-season game, and it will be just as nice to see Joe Lombardi unleash his new scheme as offensive coordinator of the Lions. He based his scheme on what he saw when he was Drew Brees’ quarterbacks coach in New Orleans, and the hope is that the Lions will become a more balanced and more efficient offense going forward.

At the same time, I’m nervous simply because we’ve been fooled before by the offense’s talent on paper. The Lions are quite strong at all of their offensive position groups, but all of that talent won’t mean anything if they can’t do simple things like take care of the ball, avoid stupid penalties and convert drives into points. The turnovers aspect is especially concerning considering that really led to the Lions’ downfall last year, and that’s an area where Matthew Stafford has to be much better.

Keefe: There are only so many “special” players in sports to watch and I’m fortunate to have grown up with Derek Jeter and Mariano Rivera as homegrown talent and watch their Hall of Fame and all-time great careers unfold on my team. In Detroit, you have Calvin Johnson, the best wide receiver in the world, who you have already been able to watch for seven years and will watch him for at least six more.

What’s it like to get to really watch and root for Johnson every Sunday as a real fan and not as a fantasy football fake fan?

Yuille: It’s quite amazing to see someone as talented as Megatron on a weekly basis. We’ve been quite fortunate in Detroit over the years to see a lot of special players, and even right now we get to watch Miguel Cabrera and Pavel Datsyuk, who are both considered among the very best at what they do. For the Lions, it’s tough to compare anybody to Barry Sanders from a talent standpoint, but Megatron is on track to be one of the very best in franchise history, and he’s an extremely likable person off the field as well.

Keefe: For a long time, the NFC East was the so-called toughest division in the league. But last year, the Eagles won the East at 10-6 the Cowboys finished 8-8, the Giants 7-9 and the Redskins 3-13. The East hasn’t sent two teams to the playoffs since 2009 (Philadelphia and Dallas) and this year, it very well could end up being the worst division in the league, which is saying a lot because the AFC South still exists.

The NFC West had consistently been the worst division in football when the NFC East was on top, but with three strong and two elite teams there, that’s no longer the case. But above the NFC West is the NFC North, where all four teams look to be good in 2014 and now that the Vikings have a franchise quarterback on their roster, the North could have four of the league’s top quarterbacks going at it for several years.

Are you worried about the enhanced competition in the NFC North and which teams scares you the most in the division?

Yuille: The NFC in general worries me because there are so many good teams. It’s possible that the Lions could go 10-6 this year and still miss the playoffs depending on how the standings shake out. And especially in the NFC North, it’s possible they could put together an excellent season and only finish third.

Within the division, the Packers are definitely the team that scares me the most. I know a lot of people are quite high on the Bears this year, but the Packers are still the team to beat. The Lions haven’t won a road game against them since 1991, and Aaron Rodgers may very well be the best quarterback in football. It’s tough to see the Lions making any real noise in the division unless they take care of business against Green Bay.

Keefe: The Giants and Lions played last year in Week 16 in what ended up being a Giants’ 23-20 overtime as they played out the string in a lost season. But that game did mean something for the Lions, who needed a win to stay alive in the NFC North playoff race and the home loss to the Giants was unexpected and the final straw for Schwartz.

Here in New York, no one believes in the 2014 Giants, and while that’s a good thing because the Giants as a franchise are always better when there aren’t any expectations for them, the reasons no one believes in them are frightening because of the amount of question marks they have. The Lions aren’t exactly the best season-opening option for the Giants and their long list of unknowns.

Monday could end up being a disaster for the Giants and they could get run out of Ford Field and I will have to spend the next week listening to how Eli Manning’s career is over and Tom Coughlin should be fired. There’s a good chance the Lions’ pass rush has its way with the Giants’ inexperienced and makeshift offensive line and the Giants’ offense continues to be as sloppy as it was in the preseason. But knowing the history of the Giants and Lions, neither team can ever be trusted to put together a complete effort or meet expectations and because of that, it’s hard to know how Monday’s game will play out.

What do you expect on Monday?

Yuille: I expect a Lions victory. Ford Field is going to be absolutely crazy with Monday Night Football in town, and Detroit in general is going to be quite amped up, especially with the Tigers and Royals battling for first place in the AL Central at Comerica Park on Monday afternoon. An energetic crowd doesn’t automatically lead to victories, of course, but between that and the way the Lions match up with the Giants, this should be a win for Detroit. I expect the Giants to keep it close for a few quarters, perhaps via some untimely turnovers, but I ultimately think the Lions will pull away for a 27-17 win.

Blogs

Oct 25, 2012

NFL Week 8 Picks

Last week was another disappointing of picks following the best week of the year, but Week 8 looks promising to get back on track.

Eli Manning had to overcome a three-point deficit with 1:13 and three timeouts left. It was too much time and too many timeouts for the Redskins to stop. I knew it, MetLife Stadium knew it and you better believe Mike Shanahan and Jim Haslett knew it. I was worried that the Giants might fall to 0-3 in the NFC East with an overtime loss to the Redskins, but I knew the game was at least going to overtime. The Giants were going to come back. I just didn’t know they were going to come back on the second play from their own 23.

Sunday’s game was the same old Giants. A perfect mix of undisciplined penalties, costly turnovers, missed opportunities and then a fourth-quarter comeback. It’s gotten to the point where I don’t even need to watch the first 58 minutes of the game because I know what’s going to happen in those 58 minutes and what’s going to happen in the last two minutes. It’s actually a better idea that I don’t watch the first 58 minutes of the game because it will save me from heartache, stress, increased blood pressure and the need to drink. The Giants are always going to be who they are for the first 58 minutes. They just need to continue to be who they are in the final two minutes.

***

Two weeks ago I just posted my picks without any take on the picks or the teams because my attention was on the Yankees postseason, which ended in embarrassing fashion. I went 8-6 that week. Last week I returned to a full picks column (on Friday instead of Thursday) and I went 6-7-1 with my sixth under-.500 week in seven weeks. The season is 41 percent over and after this week it will be 47 percent over. Halloween is in six days and Thanksgiving is in four weeks. It’s getting late early for my picks and it’s time to make a run.

Week 8 picks … let’s go!

(Home team in caps)

MINNESOTA -6.5 over Tampa Bay
I talked with Phil Simms for CBS Local Sports on Monday and he praised the Minnesota Vikings and their great defense and their system. He talked glowingly about every aspect of the Vikings including their outdated dome and their fans. It made me a believer in a team that’s already 5-2 with a bandwagon that’s quickly filling up, as you can see by another somewhat surprising home line. If the man who started the “I’m going to Disney World!” line is sold on the Vikings then so am I.

ST. LOUIS RAMS -7 over New England
The Patriots are giving seven points on the road? I can’t even ask that question with a straight face. Is it 2007? Is George W. Bush still the President? Did I miss something? Are the Patriots not 4-3 with losses to the Cardinals and Seahawks and a home overtime win over Mark Sanchez and the Darrelle Revis/Santonio Holmes-less Jets? Is this real life?

The Patriots have the same public perception that the Yankees have: they’re supposed to win. The difference is that the Yankees won just three years ago while the Patriots last won eight years ago. But even as the Patriots’ elite status begins to crumble and they move closer and closer to the pack in an awful AFC East, people still want to believe that the Patriots are the Patriots of the last decade. But they’re not and people like Mike Hurley won’t accept this until the bottom finally falls out for them and they miss the postseason.

Until that secondary gets fixed and Russell Wilson and Mark Sanchez aren’t able to pick it apart, I’m not picking the Patriots to cover a touchdown with or without Tom Brady and Bill Belichick.

TENNESSEE -3.5 over Indianapolis
It’s the “Do I Really Have to Pick This Game of the Week?” The Colts run defense is bad and Chris Johnson might be back. That’s enough to scare me from the Colts. Well, that and in their two road games they have lost by 20 and 26.

CLEVELAND +3 over San Diego
I will do anything to pick against the Chargers. Anything. Even if “anything” means picking the Browns.

PHILADELPHIA -2 over Atlanta
If I really believe the Falcons aren’t as good as their 6-0 record suggests or as good as people want them to be then I have no choice, but to pick the Eagles here. As much as it pains me to pick the Eagles to win a game when it looks like another season without a postseason for the Eagles and another season full or dysfunction and humiliation and maybe Michael Vick’s last stand as a starting quarterback in the NFL, I have to take the Eagles if I want to continue to tell people that I don’t think the Falcons are the class of the NFC. I don’t have a choice.

DETROIT -2.5 over Seattle
I don’t want to pick any game that involves the Seahawks ever again. They screwed me (along with the replacement refs) against the Packers. They screwed me (along with Nate Ebner) against the Patriots. They screwed me (along with Jim Harbaugh, who decided to decline a holding penalty that would have resulted in a safety and a nine-point win) against the 49ers. Nothing good can come from any game involving the Seahawks and I will pick against them for the rest of 2012. And oh, I hate Pete Carroll. So there’s that too.

NEW YORK JETS -2.5 over Miami
Vegas thinks the Dolphins are better than the Jets with this line, but I don’t think they are. But if I had to pick the one game in Week 8 that I wouldn’t be surprised to lose, it’s this one.

CHICAGO -7.5 over Carolina
The Bears are the biggest threat to the 2012 New York Football Giants in the NFC. The Panthers are the biggest threat to a generation of kids growing up in Carolina, but liking another NFL team.

PITTSBURGH -4.5 over Washington
This line is what it is because the Redskins stayed with the Giants at MetLife last week. But anyone who knows the Giants know that home field is a disadvantage to them. There are two guarantees in the NFL: The Giants will always play up and down to their competition and they will always suck at home. That’s not an opinion, that’s a fact. It’s science. The Redskins were not allowing a 77-yard touchdown pass from Eli Manning to Victor Cruz away from being in first place in the NFC East, but now they are 3-4 and going to Heinz Field where a real home-field advantage exists. DeAngelo Hall might want to start making excuses for his team’s defense now to use after Sunday’s game.

Oakland +1 over KANSAS CITY
The Raiders might be 2-4 and 0-3 on the road with an average loss of 32-13, but Kansas City is 1-5 and Brady Quinn is starting.

New York Giants -2.5 over DALLAS
Eli Manning has never lost at Cowboys Stadium. The Giants are 3-0 in Dallas since the new stadium opened and have put up 33, 41 and 37 points there and this is the best offense the Giants have had since the Cowboys got a new home.

DENVER -6 over New Orleans
The Saints held on for a comeback win in Tampa Bay in Week 7. (That sentence should be all you need to know about the 2012 Saints.) The Saints have won back-to-back games even if the first of these wins was a guarantee with the Chargers going to the SuperDome as Drew Brees tried to break Johnny Unitas’ record and if the second game was against the Buccaneers, who are the Buccaneers. They are now 2-4 and giving Who Dat Nation a giant case of blue balls with the ultimate tease that they are capable of going on an extended winning streak to bring them back into the playoff picture. If this were a Disney movie that would happen. If this were even a made-for-TV movie it might happen. But this is real life and in real life the Saints have the Broncos in Denver coming off a bye. Then they have the Eagles and Falcons before the Raiders, followed by the 49ers, Falcons and Giants. The Saints’ season ended after Week 3 when they fell to 0-3 against the easiest part of their schedule.

San Francisco -7 over ARIZONA
Yes, I’m hoping that Alex Smith can put up points against a defense that has only allowed 21 points once this season. It’s better than hoping that John Skelton can put up any points against a defense that has only allowed more than 19 points to Eli Manning and Aaron Rodgers.

Last Week: 5-7-1
Season: 47-55-2

Blogs

Oct 19, 2012

NFL Week 7 Picks

The first over-.500 week came last week, so the pressure is on to keep it going in Week 7.

You can already hear people saying it and it’s exactly what I didn’t want to have happen.

“The Giants are the best team in the NFL.”

I’m not sure if there’s a “best” team in the NFL anymore as the parity in the league has gotten out of control and no team is safe. There’s a good chance the Giants are the “best” team in the league right now, but “right now” only lasts through Monday night and by then that title could be stripped. For now, let’s keep it quiet and between us because we don’t want the Giants to know that there is hype building around them.

The last thing the Giants need at 4-2 with their ridiculous schedule is to start thinking they are the team to beat and better than they are. They obviously didn’t care about being defending champions when they lost to the Cowboys at home on Opening Night and they didn’t want to listen to Eli Manning when he preached about “getting off to a fast start” before they had to dig out of double-digit hole against the Browns two weeks ago.

History has shown us that the Giants succeed when there is doubt surrounding and when the attention is elsewhere like in New England, Philadelphia or Dallas. It only makes sense that the Giants would start to gain respect the same week they are playing the Redskins (a team that went 2-0 against the Giants in 2011 with Rex Grossman as their quarterback) at MetLife Stadium (a place where the Giants have trouble winning despite it being their home). This matchup has “letdown” written all over it and it wouldn’t surprise me if the Giants take this game lightly after winning in San Francisco. That’s who the Giants are and they’re never changing. I don’t think I want them to.

***

Last week I said I didn’t have time to give a take on the teams and the picks, and I didn’t. I was drafting off the Yankees postseason and I still am even though they have been eliminated. It will likely take me until the end of October to re-energize and they aren’t even playing anymore. I miss baseball and it hasn’t been 24 hours since the season ended. It’s going to be a long five-plus months until Opening Day.

I had been chasing an over-.500 record in my picks for five weeks before finishing 8-6 in Week 6. That also happened to be the same week I just picked the game without writing anything about any of the games. So you would think that I would probably do the same thing this week to see if lightning could strike twice, but I’m not going to mail it in this week even if I didn’t do the picks for Thursday like I promised I would for the rest of the season two weeks ago. (Give me a break! The baseball season just ended!) Even though I’m experiencing full-blown depression from the Yankees being swept in the ALCS, I’m going to pick myself up off the mat and do what the Yankees couldn’t do in the ALCS: my job.

Week 7 … let’s go!

(Home team in caps)

SAN FRANCISCO -7 over Seattle
A push thanks to Jim Harbaugh declining the holding penalty in the end zone that would have resulted in a safety and a cover and a win to start Week 7. But I wouldn’t expect anything less. Nothing comes easy in this league and especially not a Thursday win to get things rolling after an 8-6 week.

BUFFALO -3 over Tennessee
I wish I knew why I’m always picking the Bills to cover spreads and win games. Maybe it’s because my grandmother is from Buffalo? I’m not sure. But I’m doing it again. Try to stop me.

MINNESOTA -6.5 over Arizona
All of a sudden the Vikings are the 2007 Patriots and getting exceedingly high numbers each week. But I have backed Kevin Kolb before and I’m not about to again.

INDIANAPOLIS -2 over Cleveland
I’m not sure what happened to the Colts last week against the Jets because well, it’s the Jets, and the Colts were coming off an emotional home win against the Packers. I wish I could see the line for this game if it had been played in Week 6 instead of Week 7 with the Colts coming off beating the Packers and the Browns being winless.

Baltimore +6.5 over HOUSTON
This is all about the points.

Green Bay -5.5 over ST. LOUIS
I think the Packers sensed the urgency on Monday Night Football in Houston and answered the bell. I was hoping they would finish the season at 8-8 or maybe even 7-9 and be one less team to worry about in the playoffs, but that’s not going to happen. The Packers are back and they have the St. Louis, Jacksonville and Arizona before their bye week. Get in on the Packers now before their lines hit double digits in the next two weeks.

Dallas -2.5 over CAROLINA
A Dallas win in Carolina isn’t good for the Giants in the division or for more controversy surrounding the Cowboys, but picking the Panthers and Cam Newton isn’t good for anyone.

NEW YORK GIANTS -6 over Washington
There’s a good chance my friend Ray (the biggest Redskins fan I know) won’t be talking to me for a few weeks after this beatdown. I know he won’t leave his home and his fiancée and his dog to watch the game with me, but I wish he would because this game is going to force him to drink, and Drunk Ray is always a good time.

TAMPA BAY +2 over New Orleans
At 0-4, the Saints had nothing left to play for this season except for Drew Brees breaking Johnny Unitas’ record in Week 5, and that’s why I picked the Saints over the Chargers that week. But now that the record is broken and the moment is over, the Saints are a 1-4 team trailing in their division by 4 ½ games to the undefeated Falcons. The Saints’ season is over, and after a week off they are probably wishing they had the next 11 weeks off too.

New York Jets +10.5 over NEW ENGLAND
This could get ugly and make the 34-0 beating the Jets took at MetLife from the 49ers look like nothing. But that’s a lot of points for a team to get on the road against a division opponent even if that team has Mark Sanchez as a quarterback and no-name receivers. The Patriots are 3-3 and let the Seahawks come back against them last week and I’m sure the NFL has already penciled in Tom Brady as the FedEx Air Player of the Week for Week 7. But I can’t shake the notion that friend/enemy (frenemy?) Mike Hurley has pretty much guaranteed a Patriots blowout in this game and when Mike Hurley guarantees anything Patriots related, the opposite happens. Giants fans for Jets

OAKLAND -4.5 over Jacksonville
It’s the “Do I Really Have to Pick This Game of the Week?” No one screws me over like the Raiders, but I can accept it and that’s what this matchup comes down to: Who would I be less upset with screwing me over? The answer: Oakland.

CINCINNATI +1 over Pittsburgh
It’s tough for me to pick Andy Dalton over Ben Roethlisberger here considering the Steelers’ season is getting away from them. But these two teams are essentially the same team and since Week 10 last year when the Steelers won in Cincinnati they have won just two road games in Kansas City and Cleveland.

CHICAGO -6.5 over Detroit
I don’t think the Bears want to hear about how the Giants never get respect around the league for being an elite team because you rarely hear anyone talk about the Bears. Two years ago they went to the NFC Championship Game, last year they were 7-3 before Jay Cutler got injured and they’re already 4-1 this year. This is the last team in the NFC I would want the Giants to have to face, especially at Soldier Field.

Last Week: 8-6-0
Season: 42-48-1

Blogs

Oct 4, 2012

NFL Week 5 Picks

It’s Week 5 of the NFL season and it’s time for things to turn around.

The same old Giants. That’s who the New York Football Giants are. A second Super Bowl in four years didn’t change who they were between Super Bowl XLVI and Week 1 against the Cowboys, so why would I think that back-to-back wins would change who they are before they played the Eagles? The Giants will let you down, build you back up, suck you back in and then pull the rug out of from underneath you and if two championships weren’t enough to change who they are then I just have to accept that things will never change.

I’m not sure what Eli Manning and Tom Coughlin and Kevin Gilbride were thinking when Eli threw a deep ball to Ramses Barden at the end of Sunday night’s game. It was almost as if they thought they were trailing by four instead of two and it was that play that led to a loss after they were bailed out by the refs to extend the game.

The Giants had a chance to steal a game in Philadelphia on Sunday night and they gave it away. Now they are 2-2 on the season, 0-2 in the division and have the only real easy winnable game left on their schedule this week in the Browns. A loss on Sunday would be as devastating as the loss against the Seahawks was last year before a series of improbable events led to the Giants winning the division at 9-7. If you believe in miracles happening in back-to-back seasons then you don’t consider Sunday a must-win game for the Giants. I’m not one of those people.

***

As for the picks, the NFL season is 24 percent over and I’m still in search of the elusive over-.500 week. That isn’t good. I have gone back to my roots and I’m stopping with the Thursday pick on Twitter and the rest of the picks on Friday. It’s time to shake things up and it’s Thursday for the picks going forward.

Week 5 … let’s go!

(Home team in caps)

Arizona -1.5 over ST. LOUIS
Any other year and this is the “Do I Really Have to Pick This Game of the Week?” But not in 2012 where te cardinals are undefeated and the rams are respectable. I got so used to just knowing that every NFC west game over the last few years was three point game an just take the points but not anymore. The NFC west is longer the worst division in football. That title now belongs to the AFC east

Atlanta -3 over WASHINGTON
The Falcons’ egg is coming. I can feel it. You can feel it. Everyone can feel it. I’m going to pick them one of these weeks when they lose and lose big and now it’s just a matter of correctly guessing when that inevitable week is going to come. It makes sense that it would come on the road against the Redskins, but I like it better to come next week at home against the Raiders leading into the bye week because why wouldn’t it come then?

Philadelphia +3.5 over PITTSBURGH
I feel like I’m picking between the same team here. I can either go with the Team That Lets You Down that is home or the Team That Lets You Down that is on the road. When there are points, take them.

Green Bay -7 over INDIANAPOLIS
If the game took place in Week 1 this line would be through the roof. The Packers are still dangerous despite what the first four weeks might suggest, and I’m not ready to give up on Aaron Rodgers’ covering ability yet.

NEW YORK GIANTS -8.5 over Cleveland
If the Giants can’t blow out Brandon Weeden and the winless Browns at home with their schedule then pack up the balls because this season isn’t going anywhere.

CINCINNATI -3.5 over Miami
The Bengals have been so good to me this year. I picked against them in Week 1 and I picked for them in Weeks 2, 3 and 4 and it’s all gone according to plan. I would feel like I’m stabbing them in the back if I pick the Dolphins to cover against them in Cincinnati. But at the same time, the Dolphins have destroyed me this season, so maybe I should finally give in and pick them? I know that WFAN’s John Jastremski will tell me how the 1-3 Dolphins could be 3-1 if two plays had gone their way and he’s right, but I just can’t do it because they’re still the Dolphins.

Baltimore -6.5 over KANSAS CITY
The 2012 Chiefs and I are done. We’re finished. I don’t even want my stuff back. Just don’t call me or text me. I want them out of my life. I’m not going to let them hurt me anymore. And it’s too bad too because I really like Romeo Crennel.

Seattle +3 over CAROLINA
This game was so close to being the “Do I Really Have to Pick This Game of the Week?” So effing close. The one thing holding it back is that the Seahawks may or may not be good (and probably aren’t good), but that decision hasn’t been finalized yet.

Chicago -6 over JACKSONVILLE
Chicago has been good to me and the Jaguars can’t change that.

MINNESOTA -5.5 over Tennessee
Tennessee Titans at Minnesota Vikings! You’re the “Do I Really Have to Pick This Game of the Week?” Congratulations!

Four weeks ago I never thought I would see the day when the 2012 Vikings would be giving anyone 5 1/2 points in a football game. Maybe 5 1/2 points in a PowerPoint presentation on how to set your franchise back at least a decade when you’re a field goal away from the Super Bowl, but not actual points in an actual game. But then again, four weeks ago I didn’t know the 2012 Titans existed.

Denver +7 over NEW ENGLAND
I interned for 890 ESPN Radio and the legendary Mike Felger in 2006-07. On Nov. 5, 2006 for the Patriots-Colts Sunday Night Football at Gillette Stadium in Week 9, I had to go sit outside in freezing weather as the ESPN Radio tent across from the stadium. The Patriots were 6-1 and the Colts were 7-0 and it was the height of the Tom Brady-Peyton Manning rivalry. People were insane for this game. The place was buzzing like I had never seen a regular season NFL game before and the scene hours before the game made it feel like a Super Bowl. It wasn’t buzzing because it was Patriots-Colts. It was buzzing because Peyton Manning was in town and Peyton vs. Brady will do that. Put these two guys on any teams and the atmosphere will be the same. It could be Patriots vs. Colts or Patriots vs. Broncos or Browns vs. Bills or Hoboken High School vs. North Bergen High School, it doesn’t matter as long as Brady and Manning are the quarterbacks. The Colts won 27-20 thanks to 326 yards and two touchdowns from Manning and four interceptions from Brady.

We haven’t had a Brady-Manning game since Nov. 21, 2010 in Week 11. It felt weird in 2008 when the Patriots played the Colts without Peyton and it felt weird in 2011 when they met again without Peyton.

This game on Sunday should be great. Well, really I just want it to be great because the Yankees are going to get the Sunday night slot and that means Giants at 1:00, this game at 4:25 and Yankees at 8:37. No, I’m not leaving the couch on Sunday.

Buffalo +10 over SAN FRANCISCO
What have the Bills done for me lately? Nothing really other than getting blown out by the Patriots, so I guess that has to count for something. In this league it’s risky to back a double-digit spread, but is it a good idea to take the Bills on the West Coast against maybe the best home team in football after being embarrassed by the Patriots last week? Of course not. But when have I ever been one for good ideas when it comes to NFL picks? But where has reason and logic gotten anyone in the 2012 NFL?

NEW ORLEANS -3.5 over San Diego
Drew Brees and the Saints have nothing left to play for at 0-4 except for his touchdown streak. Saints fans know that their season is over, so if they’re going to bring their “A” game again in 2012 it’s going to come on Sunday night against the Chargers for this record. It’s not like I needed a reason to pick against the Chargers, but this is one.

Houston -9 over NEW YORK JETS
Getting nine points at home on Monday night football isn’t a good look. Th Jets’ season is in turmoil even more so than it has been in any other year under Rex Ryan and everyone is starting to find out that maybe Mike Tannenbaum isn’t the “smart SOB” he called himself in Hard Knocks two years ago.

Last Week: 7-8-0
Season: 27-35-1

Tag: Drew Brees

NFL Week 4 Picks

Giants-Lions Looks Lopsided

NFL Week 8 Picks

NFL Week 7 Picks

NFL Week 5 Picks