Doug Fister – Keefe To The City

Jun 9, 2015

Bryce Harper at His Hopeful Future Home in the Bronx

The Yankees haven’t lost in June with six straight wins and now it’s time for a two-game series with the Nationals and Bryce Harper’s first games at Yankee Stadium.

The Yankees haven’t lost in June with six straight wins and back-to-back sweeps over the Mariners and Angels. After struggling through the second half of May, the Yankees are still on top of the AL East heading into a two-game series with the NL East’s first-place Nationals. That means Bryce Harper is going to play at Yankee Stadium for the first time.

With the Yankees and Nationals meeting in the Bronx for their second of two short two-game series, Patrick Reddington of Federal Baseball joined me to talk about Max Scherzer’s incredible start to the season, Bryce Harper becoming the early favorite to win NL MVP and the concern about Stephen Strasburg’s future.

Keefe: The Yankees will face Max Scherzer on Tuesday night because the Yankees never seem to be able to dodge their opponent’s ace in any series. Whether it’s Scherzer or David Price or Matt Harvey or Sonny Gray or Felix Hernandez, the Yankees never seem to get any back end of a rotation.

Scherzer enters the game with a 1.85 ERA, allowing more than two earned runs in a start just twice in 11 starts this seasons, but somehow has lost four of his 11 starts because of a lack of run support.

Has Max Scherzer exceeded your expectations?

Reddington: We all knew Max Scherzer was going to be good, but he seems to have adjusted to the Nationals league fairly well thus far. What I didn’t expect, having not watched him as often as I probably should have while he was in the AL, was just how fiery a competitor he is on the mound. Not in a way that shows up opposing teams, but just really an ultra-competitive streak and an ability to maintain his stuff throughout his starts, hitting 95, 96 and 97 even late in his outings after sitting 92, 93 and 94 throughout the game.

But he’s in a three-way tie for highest fWAR so far this season (+2.8), the 1.85 ERA is fifth lowest in the majors so far, and that’s after he gave up four earned runs last time out. He has a .201 BAA. More importantly, and less noticeably, he’s also working with and helping the other pitchers on the staff, with Gio Gonzalez, among others talking about how he’s picked things up from Scherzer already this season. So, yeah, I’d say he’s exceeded expectations, which is even more impressive considering how high they were when he signed that $210 million deal.

Keefe: Part of that run support problem has been because no one other than Bryce Harper is having a good offensive season except for maybe Yunel Escobar, but even he doesn’t provide the usual power and production from their base. Aside from Harper, no one on the Nationals has more than seven home runs and Danny Espinosa is second in slugging percentage at second base.

Are you worried about the Nationals’ offense and what it will mean for their postseason chances and winning the NL East?

Reddington: Anthony Rendon just returned to the lineup. Jayson Werth started the season on the DL and was hurt not too long after returning from offseason surgery and struggled to produce while he was available. Ryan Zimmerman has transitioned to first base well, but the bat isn’t playing thus far this season. I wouldn’t say Harper is the only one who’s gotten it done, though no one is coming close to his production thus far.

Escobar is collecting a lot of hits, but doesn’t hit for power. Denard Span missed time at the start, but has been solid offensively since returning. Ian Desmond is having a hard time getting into a rhythm at the plate. I dare say not too many people would have predicted Danny Espinosa’s success thus far, to the point where there are hints he may see some time in the outfield to keep his bat in the lineup now that the infield is mostly healthy.

Though the production Werth was providing wasn’t up to his usual standards, Michael Taylor, Tyler Moore and Clint Robinson have been able to approximate what Werth was giving them as a group, though that’s still a little disappointing.

It’s another one of those “just wait until the lineup is healthy and see” seasons, where it’s hard to judge them with all the injuries and different lineups. I wouldn’t say it has me worried about their chances in the division, though there are some signs that the same problems which plagued them in October (aside from the fact that the Giants’ pitching just matched up well against the Nationals’ hitting) are still there and could be a problem.

Keefe: The last time I talked with Federal Baseball, I joked about Bryce Harper becoming a Yankee someday. Well, I actually wasn’t really joking since I do hope and plan on Harper becoming a Yankee when he is finally a free agent.

Harper has continued to rake this season and become the early-season NL MVP favorite hitting .326/.464/.706 with 19 home runs and 46 RBIs. He showed his power against the Yankees in the first inning of their four-run comeback against Nathan Eovaldi back on May 19.

So once again, how fun is it to see Harper becoming the best hitter in the game in what is looking like an MVP season?

Reddington: I wouldn’t go fitting Harper for pinstripes just yet. Though he’s a Scott Boras client and there’s the history of his clients going to free agency, there’s just as much anecdotal evidence right now that Harper likes the idea of spending an entire career with one team.

Nationals general manager Mike Rizzo, who scouted, drafted, and oversaw his development from a very young age, has talked often about the “special relationship” the two of them have and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a Mike Stanton-esque contract discussed at some point in the future provided Harper can stay healthy and continue to do what he’s been doing this season, because right now he looks every bit like the sort of once-in-a-generation-type talent he was hyped up to be when he was growing up.

Keefe: Stephen Strasburg was off to a rocky start the last time the Nationals played the Yankees three weeks ago, and that rocky start continued for his next three starts and now he’s on the 15-day disabled list with a neck issue.

Is this a you’re-not-pitching-well-so-we’re-putting-you-on-the-DL DL stint or is he really hurt? Are you worried about the future of Strasburg?

Reddington: It’s hard not to be worried about Stephen Strasburg. He’s 26, he’s already undergone Tommy John surgery, he’s struggled mightily this season and as far as the Nationals are saying, his mechanics are completely out of whack and he’s causing himself back issues with mechanics he altered because of an ankle injury he suffered this season. They’ve been very clear that they don’t see any signs of a problem in his shoulder or elbow, which is good news, but they’ve also been unable, two-plus months in to get him straightened out and back to what everyone, including Strasburg knows he’s capable of doing.

He’s frustrated, he was hurting the team with short outings before the DL stint and the issues have seeming moved around his back over the last few starts, so they really have to get him sorted out and make sure he’s 100 percent before they even consider bringing him back. I don’t think it’s a create-a-DL stint “injury”, but I do think it’s a good chance for him to get straightened out without having to try to do it against major league hitters in games that count, but he’s a huge part of this rotation and they need “Stephen Strasburg” back, not the pitcher they’ve had thus far this season.

Keefe: Three weeks ago, the Nationals were red hot, and you seemed to not be worried at all about their chances of winning the NL East. The Nationals are only a 1/2 game back of the Mets with one game in hand on them, but the Braves, despite being under .500 are only 3 1/2 games back in the division.

Every team has their question marks and with the Nationals’ offense struggling and their rotation not being what it was projected to be, are you still confident in the Nationals winning the East?

Reddington: I am confident that the Nationals’ talent will ultimately win out in the division, and that’s taking nothing away from the Mets, who are doing it without their franchise third baseman and the Braves, who completely reassembled to the roster around their young talent and are impressing me thus far this season with what they’ve been able to accomplish. That being said, which is a rhetorical device for wiping away that praise, I still think the Nationals are a better team than either of those two clubs.

After the Nationals dropped three of four to the Cubs this past weekend, Matt Williams said he wasn’t worried, noting that they struggled in April, turned it on in May and are back to struggling again. “Ebbs and flows” etc. But I don’t think it’s just manager speak. I think they have to get as healthy as possible and get Strasburg and Doug Fister back in the rotation before we can really judge just what the team is this season.

Here’s to Hoping Bryce Harper Becomes a Yankee

Bryce Harper is in his fourth season, is just 22 years old and is becoming the best player in the league. I can’t wait until he becomes a Yankee.

The Yankees went 2-5 in Tampa Bay and Kansas City and the embarrassing start to the road trip has led to a lot of the Yankees shaving off their mustaches. Obviously the Yankees’ scoring two runs or less in those five losses is because of facial hair.

With the Yankees and Nationals meeting for a short two-game series in Washington, James Meyerriecks of Federal Baseball joined me to talk about Bryce Harper’s incredible start to the season, the impact of Max Scherzer at the front of the rotation, what’s wrong with Stephen Strasburg and how easily the Nationals will win the NL East.

Keefe: In Bryce Harper’s rookie year in 2012, he hit 22 home runs at the age of 19. In 2013, he hit 20. Last season, he hit 13. It’s May 19 and he already has 14 this season and he’s 22 years old! I said 22!

Aside from home runs, Harper leads the league in runs scored, RBIs, walks, on-base percentage and slugging percentage.

How fun has it been to watch Harper over these three-plus seasons go from a teenage to possibly the most feared hitter in the majors? And I guess how devastating will it be when he’s a Yankee in a few years?!

Meyerriecks: Overall, it’s been a pleasure watching Harper grow before our eyes. That’s not to say there haven’t been some growing pains, though. Nationally, we always see labels like cocky or brash or immature. Harper’s youthful exuberance is part of what makes him such a fun player to watch for Nationals fans, but it’s also why he can be such a lightning rod with the media. Unfortunately, that youthful exuberance has actually had quite a few instances where it’s cost both Harper and the Nats over the past few seasons. He’s cost himself quite a bit of time due to injury after crashing into walls and tearing a ligament in his thumb on a head first slide.

As for his approach at the plate, that’s as mature as it gets. Early this season, he’s really showcased what aregenerally considered to be old player skills in the batter’s box. It’s always a fun cat and mouse game watching pitchers try to attack him. At just 22 years old, Harper is already growing into a player who very rarely swings at a “pitcher’s pitch”. He’s dictating almost every plate appearance with his discipline and has been reaping the benefits over the first month and a half. This isn’t something that happened over night, but it’s a part of his game that hasreally evolved so far this season.

As for the future Yankee question, we’ll see how it plays out. Harper is a Scott Boras client, so it would be a major surprise if he doesn’t test free agency when he’s eligible. We’ll cross that bridge when we get there, though. Harper will be a National through at least 2018, so I’ll enjoy him while he’s here.

Keefe: Every day the Nationals send somewhat of a household name to the mound with Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, Jordan Zimmerman, Doug Fister and Gio Gonzalez. It wasn’t that long ago that Gonzalez was either the team’s No. 1 or No. 2 starter and now he’s either the No. 4 or No. 5.

In New York, with Masahiro Tanaka on the disabled list, It’s Michael Pineda, CC Sabathia, Nathan Eovaldi, Adam Warren and Chris Capuano, which is probably the Yankees’ worst rotation since they were trotting Sidney Ponson and Darrell Rasner out there way too much in 2008.

What’s it like knowing that every game you might have the better starting pitching going and have a chance to win? I only ask because I miss that feeling.

Meyerriecks: Part of what’s so fun about this rotation is that they not only have multiple aces, but amazing depth. All five of the Nats starters are capable of going out and throwing zeros up on the board every time they step on the diamond. What’s scariest for other teams (particularly within the NL East) is that they even have depth beyond that starting five, with Tanner Roark having moved to the bullpen after going 15-10 with a 2.85 ERA last season.

It’s awesome knowing that, regardless of who is up next in the rotation, there’s potential for a dominant performance. Even when the team is scuffling a bit, it’s never really time to panic. There’s this old adage about momentum only being as good as the next day’s starting pitcher. The Nats’ rotation depth means that they’re always just a day away from having a terrific shot at snapping a losing streak. They’ve come a long ways from the days when John Lannan was getting the opening day nod.

Keefe: I wasn’t happy this offseason when the Yankees decided to not be in on Max Scherzer, Jon Lester or James Shields. Given the concerns and unknowns of most of the Yankees rotation, I felt they needed to make a play for at least one of the three best starters available on the free-agent market to solidify their staff, but they didn’t and now I’m stuck watching Adam Warren and Chris Capuano make up 40 percent of the rotation.

The Nationals signed Scherzer to a seven-year, $210 million deal and so far he has lived up to his deal as he has a 1.75 ERA and somehow, but somehow has three losses. In those three losses, he gave up three earned runs combined and he also has a no-decision in which he allowed on earned run over six innings. From past Yankees free-agent pitching signings (most of which didn’t work out), I can say there is usually an adjustment period to a starter on a new team trying to prove himself or prove his worth, but that hasn’t been the case for Scherzer.

Have you been impressed with how good Scherzer has been in his return to the NL or did you expect this kind of performance?

Meyerriecks: At the time that the Nats signed him, I expected to hear a lot about how signing Scherzer was unnecessary with all of that rotation depth that you brought up in the previous question. With Zimmermann and Fister due to hit free agency after this season, Scherzer’s signing seemed like a move to stabilize the rotation beyond 2015. It certainly seemed like a deal that would improve the team this season as well, and it has.

Based on what he’d already done in his career, I don’t think there was much doubt that his on-field performance would fit right in on the Nats. He did win the 2013 AL Cy Young. He led the majors in strikeouts from 2012-2014. He ranked 22nd in ERA (3.24) and 6th in FIP (2.94) over that same span, so there was little doubt that his profile added an awful lot of talent to the 2015 Nats.

However, what’s been most amazing is how the team and the city have embraced him. At the time that the Nats signed Scherzer, we heard lots of stories that Scherzer wanted to sign with the Nats and that, unlike what we’d usually expect to hear, he was as aggressive about pursuing a contract in D.C. as the Nats were in pursuing him. When I heard that, I thought it was all lip service. Scherzer didn’t exactly have ties to the area. He grew up (here … yeah … Nats fan in St. Louis) in St. Louis rooting for the (cough) Cardinals.

After watching him these first couple of months, I don’t think it was lip service at all. I can’t put my finger on why it’s worked out so perfectly. It’s possible that all the Boras ties on the Nats roster play a role with how comfortable he immediately seemed in the clubhouse. Scherzer hasn’t only fit in on the Nats roster, but he’s immediately stepped in as kind of the class clown. He’s quickly become both a fan favorite and a favorite in the Nats clubhouse.

Keefe: What is wrong with Stephen Strasburg? Last year’s strikeout leader still has over a strikeout per inning, but he’s allowed 55 hits in 40 2/3 innings, has a 5.98 ERA and 1.648 WHIP.

I thought the Yankees dodged a bullet by not seeing Scherzer and also Strasburg in this two-game series, but maybe I should have wanted them to see Strasburg right now?

Meyerriecks: It hasn’t been pretty watching Strasburg so far this season. He did tweak his ankle in spring training, which led to him wearing a brace. This seemed to do a number on his mechanics a bit, which led to him leaving a start a few weeks ago with pain under his shoulder blade. He’s dealing with injuries and mechanical issues, and this seems to have done a number on his command. It’s a never ending cycle. The next time he has a rough start, we’re going to hear that he’s breathing out of the wrong eyelid.

I kid, I kid. The command and mechanics have been the major issues, but there’s also some small sample size noise in there. He’s allowed a .380 BABIP to this point so far this season. His career BABIP against is .304, and the league average is about .295. While his batted ball profile suggests that his BABIP should be a bit higher than we’re used to seeing (he’s allowing a 26.5 percent line drive rate!), there’s no way that doesn’t start to normalize some. When the BABIP starts to come down, so will the WHIP… and the ERA. The stuff has still been there, so hopefully he can get more comfortable (healthier?) and put the mechanical issues behind him.

Keefe: The Nationals started the season 1-4 and were 7-13 on April 27. But since then, they have gone 15-4, are now 22-17 and trail the Mets by one game in the NL East.

Before the season, everyone picked the Nationals to win the East and there were a lot of predictions for them to go to the World Series and win it. The Mets still don’t seem postseason-ready, the Marlins are in their usual state of disarray, the Braves are trying to rebuild and the Phillies are a disaster. The NL East should be the easiest of the six divisions to win, especially for a Nationals team that won’t endure long periods of losing because of their starting rotation.

Is there any doubt in your mind that the Nationals will win their division?

Meyerriecks: If you’d asked me this question two or three weeks ago, I might have had a little more doubt. The Nats are still the best team in the NL East. They were two or three weeks ago, too, but the early season slide had left the Mets banking an eight game lead. Even over five months, being eight games better than another good team is a difficult chore. With just one game separating the two after these past few weeks, there’s not much doubt in my mind that the Nats will overtake them and win the division.

The Mets are probably closer to prime time than many of us thought they were entering the season. Harvey and deGrom form a dominant 1-2 punch atop the rotation. Bartolo Colon has become one of my favorite pitchers to watch (even though I still curse Omar Minaya about that trade back in the day) in his old age. I hear that they have some Norse god that they brought up who is pretty good, too. While Harvey, deGrom, and Syndergaard will form an imposing front of the rotation, I expect them all to have a few rough stretches this season due to inexperience and (in Harvey’s case) fatigue in his first year back from Tommy John surgery.

The Mets offense and bullpen are real hit or miss, and I think that’s what will ultimately keep them from challenging the Nats for the division over the long haul. The Marlins are talented, but they’ve dug too deep a hole for themselves and just recently made their GM their manager. As an Expos holdover, it’s fun to watch Jeffrey Loria’s (new) team be a complete train wreck. The Braves have been kind of a nice surprise so far this season, but they don’t have the offensive depth around Freddie Freeman to sustain a run. The Phillies just need to find a way to trade away any of their players that are over 30 and maybe they’ll be competitive by 2019.

The Nats will take the NL East … no problem.

ALCS Game 1 Thoughts: The Emotional Swings of the Postseason

Game 1 of the ALCS was full of emotional swings that ended with the loss of Derek Jeter and a loss to the Tigers.

“There’s no other game in which fortunes can change so much from hand to hand. A brilliant player can get a strong hand cracked, go on tilt and lose his mind with every single chip in front of him. This is why the World Series of Poker is decided over a No-Limit Hold ‘Em table. Some people, pros even, won’t play No-Limit. They can’t handle the swings.” – Mike McDermott, Rounders

Welcome to Game 1 of the 2012 ALCS.

Sometimes the highs and lows of a postseason game are too much to handle. Every Yankees baserunner feels like an accomplishment and every opposing baserunner feels like an inevitable pitch. When you factor in the Yankees’ offensive struggles, these two feelings are taken to another level.

I sat in the right field bleachers with Keefe To The City contributor Dave Heck and watched the Yankees load the bases and fail to score. Then load the bases again and fail to score again. And then fail to score again and again and again. For eight innings the Yankees couldn’t score against Doug Fister or Phil Coke or Joaquin Benoit. I’m not sure they would have been able to score against Daisuke Matsuzaka or the former Zales Fan Marquee guy.

In the ninth inning I was wishing I spent my Saturday night going out in the city and getting drunk at a bar and ordering Domino’s at 3:15 a.m. I would have even settled for wasting a Saturday night and just being in my bed sleeping. I had been at the Stadium for three hours and 31 minutes and 12 innings on Wednesday and four hours and 31 minutes and 13 innings on Thursday night. I was exhausted and went to Game 1 with a sleep-deprived, alcohol-driven headache hoping that the Yankees would take a 1-0 series lead and instead I had watched them endure another offensive postseason slump.

Russell Martin singled to center to lead off the ninth off Jose Valverde and moved to second on defensive indifference. Derek Jeter struck out for the first out and then Ichiro hit his first career postseason home run an 0-1 count to make it 4-2.

“Get it to Ibanez,” I told Dave.

Robinson Cano continued his hot October by striking out for the second out on seven pitches. Mark Teixeira fought for seven pitches, bringing the count full and before the eighth pitch of the at-bat, I turned to Dave again.

“A walk and then Ibanez,” I said.

“He can’t do it again,” Dave replied.

The eighth pitch was ball four and I did the Derek Jeter fist pump mixed with a little Joba Chamberlain 360-fist pump for good measure as Raul Ibanez walked to the plate.

With an 0-1 count, Jose Valverde threw his 28^th pitch of the inning to Ibanez and he rocked it. Everyone in Section 203 was already standing, but now people were jockeying for position by standing on the actual bleachers to watch it arrive. Everyone in the Stadium knew by the swing and the sound of the bat that the ball was headed for the seats, but those in right field knew because when you’re in the path of a home run, the ball just gets bigger and bigger and bigger and bigger like you’re waiting for the ball to drop on New Year’s before the mayhem ensues.

For the third time following a Raul Ibanez at-bat in four nights I looked like Theo Fleury following his goal againt the Oilers in the 1990-91 playoffs. I was yelling and screaming in a shower of beer and high-fiving and hugging strangers. The Yankees had a postseason hero for the first time since A-Rod in 2009 and it was the unlikely source of the 40-year-old Ibanez on a one-year, $1.1 million deal making less than Boone Logan, Andruw Jones, Freddy Garcia and Pedro Feliciano. And for the second time in four nights, Raul Ibanez had kept the Yankees alive with a ninth-inning home run turning to depression into jubilation.

Up until that 0-1 pitch, the Stadium was quiet (though it would get a lot quieter). The moat seats were empty and the upper deck looked like a scene from the Stadium in the 80s. The Bronx reeked of devastation, but in one swing the ultimate high replaced the ultimate low. But then Derek Jeter broke his ankle and the ultimate low found a new low.

I have never heard Yankee Stadium that quiet. I have never heard any stadium or arena that quiet. I have never heard a library that quiet. When Jeter was carried off the field I quickly entered Phase 1 of the Yankees elimination process that I endure any October that doesn’t end with them winning their last game. The Tigers took a two-run lead and didn’t give it back. Another four hours and 54 minutes at the Stadium.

This train carries Hiroki Kuroda in Game 2.

Tag: Doug Fister

Bryce Harper at His Hopeful Future Home in the Bronx

Here’s to Hoping Bryce Harper Becomes a Yankee

ALCS Game 1 Thoughts: The Emotional Swings of the Postseason