CC Sabathia – Page 3 – Keefe To The City

Apr 23, 2015

Podcast: JJ Barstool Sports New York

After starting the season 1-4, the Yankees have won eight of their last 11 and are tied for first in the AL East with the first half of the Subway Series up next.

After the six-game homestand to open the season, it looked like the Yankees’ season could unravel before it really even began with a 10-game road trip to Baltimore, Tampa Bay and Detroit. But after starting the season 1-4 and being 3-6 after the first three games of the road trip, the Yankees have won six of their last seven and are tied for first in the AL East with the first half of the Subway Series up next.

JJ of Barstool Sports New York joined me to talk about the state of the Yankees after the first weeks of the season, the problems with the Yankees’ lineup, the hype surrounding the Subway Series and why the Yankees need to put an end to the Mets fans’ happiness this weekend.

Blogs • Yankees

Apr 22, 2015

When Does the Free Pass for Jacoby Ellsbury Expire?

Jacoby Ellsbury hasn’t received any criticism since he became a Yankee and it’s time the $153 million center fielder was treated according to his performance.

Jacoby Ellsbury became a Yankee in the same free-agency class as Masahiro Tanaka, Brian McCann and Carlos Beltran. Five years after spending $423.5 million on Mark Teixeira, CC Sabathia and A.J. Burnett following a postseason-less season, the Yankees spent $438 million on Ellsbury, Tanaka, McCann and Beltran following another postseason-less season, which ended with a Red Sox championship.

The Yankees let Robinson Cano go to Seattle after lowballing their homegrown superstar and then used the money they should have used for a new deal to re-sign him to overpay for a 30-year-0ld center fielder, a 30-year-old catcher and a 37-year-old right fielder. And in the first season with the three new position players on the rosters, the Yankees went 84-78 and missed the playoffs for the second straight season.

Ellsbury hit .271/.328/.419 with 16 home runs and 70 RBIs in 149 games. McCann hit .232/.286/.406 with 23 home runs and 75 RBIs in 140 games. Beltran hit .233/.301/.402 with 15 home runs and 49 RBIs in 109 games. All three had bad seasons and that’s before you factor in their salaries and that they made $53.1 million combined. But in a year in which the Yankees finished only six games over .500 and missed the playoffs and somehow had a worse offensive team than the miserable 2013 Yankees, Ellsbury’s subpar season (in which he finished lower than his career averages in batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage) was somehow considered “good”. Despite playing nowhere near that of a $21.1-million-per-season center fielder in his prime and posting a slash line nowhere near his 2013 season and nowhere even close to his 2011 season, Ellsbury was given a free pass for 2014, and apparently that free pass doesn’t expire because he’s been given one again to start 2015.

The Yankees didn’t need any of the three, but that didn’t stop them from signing them and putting more bad contracts on the books. (Thanks, Brian Cashman!) It’s still ridiculous that the Yankees were willing to give $153 million to an inferior player in Ellsbury while maintaining their stance and not willing to budge on their own Cano at $175 million. The Yankees didn’t and don’t need Ellsbury. They already had Brett Gardner, who is the cheaper version of Ellsbury. They did need Cano. And without signing a luxury, not a necessity, in Ellsbury, they would have been able to up their seven-year, $175 million offer to Cano (even though they’re the Yankees and they could have upped it anyway).

On Monday night, the Yankees trailed the Tigers 2-1 in the eighth inning with Chase Headley and Didi Gregorius on first and one out. Gregorius had just singled and chase Alfredo Simon from the game and Brad Ausmus went into his miserable bullpen and called on Joba Chamberlain to face Ellsbury. (Ellsbury has seen Chamberlain more than any other place in the majors since Joba’s 2007 debut.) After fouling off a first-pitch fastball, Ellsbury hit a second-pitch fastball into a 4-6-3 inning-ending double play. Rally over. Inning over. Game all but over as the Yankees would go on to lose 2-1.

It was the 13th game of the season for the Yankees and the 12th game of the season for Ellsbury. He finished the game 1-for-4 with his 15th hit of the season, 14 of which are singles with the other being a double, with zero home runs and zero RBIs.

On Tuesday night, Ellsbury went 0-for-4 with a walk, maintaining his one extra-base hit total for the season and once again failing to drive in a run. Even Gregorio Petit has one RBI this season and it’s shocking when he is able to make contact at the plate and a miracle when he puts the ball in play. But the Yankees won 5-1 on Tuesday thanks to contributions from players not named Jacoby Ellsbury, so he was able to get by for another night.

What if A-Rod, who is making $100,000 less than Ellsbury this season, was entering the 15th game of the season with one extra-base hit, no home runs and no RBIs? I’m sure Twitter and the Post and the Daily News and ESPN would leave him alone and let his performance go unnoticed and give him time to turn it around. But for some reason, no one is talking about Ellsbury’s lack of run production. It’s not like the Yankees are off to some impressive start and therefore no reason to complain about anything or be worried or concerned about the team. They’re a .500 team through 14 games and their second-highest paid position player (Mark Teixeira is first at $22.5 million this season … and next!) this season has been invisible offensively.

I didn’t want Jacoby Ellsbury on the Yankees. I didn’t want a 30-year-old center fielder on a seven-year, $153 million, who’s biggest part of his game is his speed, knowing that speed won’t last forever. I didn’t want to watch 37-year-old Ellsbury as a platoon player making $21.1 million in 2020. (The Yankees will have to pay him $5 million to not play for them in 2021.) But he’s here, and he’s for this year and at least the next five years after this one. And since he’s here, his performance needs to be treated accordingly.

Blogs • Email Exchanges • Yankees

Apr 20, 2015

The Shane Greene Trade Has Been an Atrocity

The Yankees picked up a much-needed sweep of the Rays over the weekend to get back to .500 and showed some consistency for the first time this season. Thanks to A-Rod’s impressive start to the

The Yankees picked up a much-needed sweep of the Rays over the weekend to get back to .500 and showed some consistency for the first time this season. Thanks to A-Rod’s impressive start to the season and the zeroes put up by the back end of the bullpen, the Yankees are 6-6, but have played bad enough to be much worse. Things aren’t going to get any easier on this 10-game road trip with the next stop being Detroit where the Tigers have gotten off to the best start in the league.

With the Yankees and Tigers meeting for the first time this season, I did an email exchange with Rob Rogacki of Bless You Boys to talk about David Price’s impending free agency and future, the three-team trade with the Yankees that brought Shane Greene to Detroit and the end of the Austin Jackson era with last season’s trade to the Mariners.

Keefe: David Price has allowed one earned run in 22 1/3 innings over three starts. Incredibly, he has only won one of those three starts because of a lack of run support, but at age 29 (he’ll be 30 in August), Price is off to his best start in any season. Coincidentally, he is a free agent at the end of the season.

I have long wanted Price on the Yankees and it seems like he is following the CC Sabathia 2008 blueprint of having a career year in a contract year and with the money Max Scherzer (who is one year older than Price) got from the Nationals (seven years, $210 million) this offseason, Price is easily going to match that number and likely exceed it. Hopefully, it’s the Yankees giving him that offer.

What do you think happens with Price after 2015? What offer do you want the Tigers to make him?

Rogacki: There were whispers about the Tigers and Price negotiating a long-term extension during spring training, but those voices have all but died, and the two sides are reportedly nowhere close to an agreement. The Tigers haven’t issued a press release like they did with Max Scherzer last season, which leads me to believe that there is hope that he could end up back in Detroit in 2016. Price seems to be much more comfortable with the Tigers this year, and has made fast friends with rotation stalwart Justin Verlander. If Price does not re-sign with the Tigers, it will probably be because of money, not a desire to leave the organization.

I cringe at the thought of giving a 30-year-old starter the kind of contract that Scherzer got, but I think that this is the bare minimum it will take to retain Price. The lefthander checks off all the boxes you want in an ace, and his game should age as well as one could expect out of a pitcher in today’s era. I think a lot of Tigers fans were more amicable to the idea of extending Price over Scherzer, and I have a hard time imagining that the Tigers won’t put together a serious offer this offseason.

Keefe: Miguel Cabrera is off to another MVP-candidate start to the season, which is to be expected from the best hitter in the world. It’s been just over a year since he signed the 10-year, $292 million deal with the Tigers and while it seemed like too long and too much money for a player at his age with his build with his future projection, I loved the deal.

Sure, people are going to complain about it because people complain about every deal in every sport, so it didn’t surprise me that people had an issue with overpaying the back-to-back AL MVP for his 30s. Like I always say with the Yankees, “It’s not my money,” and it can keep a player like Cabrera on your roster for the rest of his prime, then worry about his later years when they come.

What were your thoughts on the Cabrera deal?

Rogacki: While the Tigers have one of the higher payrolls in the game, their budget is still a step or two below the eye-popping numbers that the Yankees and Dodgers are paying out, and $30 million per year for an aging hitter — even one as good as Cabrera — is going to put a strain on their budget going forward. They would have more roster and financial flexibility without Cabrera, especially in the later parts of the decade.

That said, I love that the Tigers went out of their way to retain Cabrera, who is well on his way to Cooperstown (and the requisite statue at Comerica Park that comes along with it). Cabrera is one of the best hitters in MLB history and a joy to watch everyday, and his playful personality makes him all the more entertaining for Tigers fans and opponents alike. Hall of Fame players generally stay very productive well into their 30s, and Cabrera has definitely fit into that mold so far throughout his career.

Keefe: I miss Shane Greene. A 2009 15th-round draft pick, he finally reached the majors last year and struck out 81 in 78 2/3 innings. He looked like he might be a future staple of the rotation and maybe one of the first reliable homegrown starters the Yankees have produced with Brian Cashman as general manager. Instead, he was traded to the Tigers in a three-team deal with the Diamondbacks that brought back Didi Gregorius in return.

Gregorius has been awful through his first 12 games as a Yankee. He is hitting .189/.225/.189 without an extra-base hit, several baserunning blunders and for all we heard about his exceptional Gold Glove-caliber fielding, he hasn’t made a play yet that 40-year-old Derek Jeter couldn’t make.

Is there any chance we can redo that trade? What are your thoughts about Greene and his 3-0 start?

Rogacki: I have been a fan of the trade that brought Greene to Detroit from the start. I was very impressed with his two performances against the Tigers last season, and after going back to watch a few more of his outings during the offseason, my optimism had not waned one bit. Greene pounded the lower half of the strike zone and showed flashes of a developing changeup, one that has served him very well throughout his first three starts in 2015. Greene has an underrated cutter and changeup, and has also started elevating his four-seam fastball in two-strike counts.

This trade isn’t going to look this lopsided for long. Greene is due to regress from his microscopic ERA, and Gregorius’ batted ball profile indicates that he has been somewhat unlucky early on in 2015. His above average defense will start to shine through at some point. I think the Tigers are clear winners in this trade simply because they gave up the least to get what looks to be a mid-rotation starter in Greene, but I think the move was a necessary one for the Yankees (though not the splashy one their fanbase would have liked).

Keefe: Last year at the trade deadline, the Tigers traded Austin Jackson to the Mariners in the three-team deal that landed them David Price. Jackson, another former Yankee who was traded to the Tigers for Curtis Granderson before the 2010 season, never really lived up to the expectations that were placed on him, struck out a lot and struggled to get on base the last few years.

I remember being upset that he wouldn’t reach the majors with the Yankees after he was traded and wondered why they would want to give away a 21-year-old future center fielder for an aging one. But looking back on it, I would have to say both teams came out even on that aspect of the trade and we were able to get rid of Phil Coke and you were able to get Max Scherzer, so it was a win-win all around.

What were your thoughts when the Tigers traded Jackson to the Mariners?

Rogacki: While Jackson struggled for long stretches with the Tigers, his first few seasons made Tigers fans all but forget about Granderson. Jackson was an elite defender in center field during his first four years in Detroit, ranking among the very best centerfielders in baseball in nearly every advanced defensive metric in the book. His penchant for striking out was frustrating at times, but he was an above average leadoff hitter whose value far outweighed his cost to the organization. Jackson was a fan favorite, and the standing ovation he got when he was removed from a game after being traded was one of the most surreal baseball moments I have ever seen.

Personally, I was ecstatic for the deal. It’s not every day that you land an elite talent like Price, and while the cost was steep (Jackson and cost-controlled Drew Smyly were both shipped out), the chance to see Price pitch in the Olde English D was exciting. I have continued to follow both former Tigers with their new teams, and am surprised at how much Jackson has struggled with the Mariners. I think the trade will be unfairly judged on whether the Tigers win a World Series this year, but I think the move was the right one to make for this team.

Keefe: The Tigers are off to a hot 10-2 start in a year in which I thought they would have a down year. They lost Max Scherzer to free agency, Justin Verlander has yet to pitch and I didn’t think their offense was as deep as it had been in years past. But the Tigers have kept on rolling despite the roster turnover and despite the question marks in the bullpen. It seems as though Dave Dombrowski has done it again in what was supposed a deep and hard-to-win AL Central.

What were your expectations for the team entering the season and have they changed after this 10-2 start?

Rogacki: Expectations for this team have definitely skyrocketed after such a strong start to the season. The last two times the Tigers started a season off this fast, they won the World Series, a fact that is not lost on Tigers fans. The starting pitching has been the biggest surprise, both for positive and negative reasons. I already touched on Greene’s hot start, but Alfredo Simon is coming off the best start of his career (and will start tonight’s opening game). Anibal Sanchez, on the other hand, has already allowed more home runs this season than he did in all of 2014. The Tigers definitely need an effective Verlander if they are going to reach the playoffs, but they have been able to withstand his absence so far.

There have been some surprising contributions from the offense as well, but overall I thought that this unit had the potential to be one of the very best in baseball. Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez might be the best one-two punch in baseball, and J.D. Martinez was coming off a red-hot spring training. Yoenis Cespedes was hitting like his usual self prior to last season’s trade to Boston, and I was very bullish on Nick Castellanos taking a step forward in season two. All of those things have happened so far, and more. Jose Iglesias is translating one of the best contact rates in baseball into a not-gonna-stay-that-way .436 batting average, and Anthony Gose and Rajai Davis have become an effective platoon at the top of the order. This lineup is deeper than many people expected, and will make life difficult for many a pitcher in 2015.

Podcasts • Yankees

Apr 10, 2015

Podcast: Jared Carrabis

The Yankees and Red Sox meet for the first time in 2015 this weekend and once again it brings up question of why A-Rod is hated, but David Ortiz is loved by baseball fans.

It’s the first weekend of the season and the first Yankees-Red Sox series of the season. And nothing says Yankees-Red Sox like having the two teams play in Games 4, 5 and 6 of the season with Friday and Saturday matchups of Nathan Eovaldi-Wade Miley and Adam Warren-Joe Kelly.

Jared Carrabis of Barstool Sports Boston and Section 10 Podcast joined me to talk about the fading Yankees-Red Sox rivalry, why A-Rod is wrongfully hated by Boston fans, what would have happened if A-Rod had been traded to the Red Sox, the 2004 ALCS, if Red Sox fans miss Adrian Gonzalez and how Pablo Sandoval might become Carl Crawford 2.0 in Boston.

Also, Keefe To The City has partnered with The Allie Way Sports Bar on East 70th Street between 1st and York in the Upper East Side for Yankees Sunday Funday Viewing Parties this season. The first one is Sunday, April 19 at 1 p.m. when the Yankees head to Tampa to face the Rays. Come to The Allie Way for the game and enjoy drink specials, including $30 (cash) open bar for the entire game!

Blogs • Opening Day • Yankees

Apr 3, 2015

The 2015 Yankees Order of Importance

CC Sabathia has been the most important Yankee since becoming one in 2009, but that’s no longer as the case and there’s a new No. 1 for 2015.

I thought that writing an Order of Importance for the Yankees meant that they would make the playoffs. I did it in 2011 (lost in the ALDS) and 2012 (lost in the ALCS) and then didn’t in 2013 and figured that was the reason the Yankees didn’t make the playoffs and not the devastating injuries to Derek Jeter, Mark Teixeira, Curtis Granderson, Alex Rodriguez, Kevin Youkilis, Travis Hafner, Francisco Cervelli, or the incompetence of CC Sabathia and Phil Hughes. So last year, I wrote an Order of Importance again, and well, my theory was proved wrong.

If you want to know how much the 2014 season sucked, look no further than the Order of Importance from last year. I ranked the 14 most important Yankees with CC Sabathia at No. 1 again, Mark Teixeiera at No. 2 and Brian McCann at No. 3. Sabathia made eight starts, Teixeira hit .216 and started making up injuries and McCann was a free-agent bust for nearly the entire season until he found a way to get his numbers up to his career usuals at the end of the year.

Last year, I said, “Things change as does the Order of Importance for the Yankees and it’s never changed as much as it has from 2013 to 2014 with so much turnover on the roster.” Once again it has changed drastically and fortunately this year you won’t find Kelly Johnson on the list.

This time I have ranked the 14 most important Yankees once again from least important to most important based on the criteria of what it would mean to the team if they missed significant time or performed so badly in 2014 that it was like they were missing time.

Number 30, Nathan Eovaldi, Number 30
The Yankees’ No. 4 starter is the reigning hits allowed leader from the National League. How that is possible when you throw as hard as Eovaldi hurts my head to even think about, but he is only 25 years old and there is promise that he will become the strikeout pitcher he should be.

This is Nathan Eovaldi’s line from this spring: 13.2 IP, 10 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 14 K, 0.66 ERA, 0.732 WHIP. Eovaldi isn’t going to keep those kind of numbers up since that would translate to the best starting pitching performance in the history of baseball and the best season of any athlete in any sport in the history of sports. Wayne Gretzky’s 92-120-212 season from 1981-82 wouldn’t even be in the same stratosphere. Since Eovaldi isn’t going to go the entire season without walking a batter, it’s time to think more realistically.

Those 14 strikeouts in 13 2/3 innings this spring is what everyone should be looking for from Eovaldi. He has never come close to striking out one hitter per inning in his five seasons in the league and as a hard-throwing starter, it’s a little odd. One Mets fan told me he’s going to be the Yankees’ Mike Pelfrey as someone who throws mid-to-high-90s and doesn’t strike anyone out. But after trading Martin Prado, who was looking to be a vital piece to the 2015 Yankees and David Phelps, who the organization has loved, for Eovaldi, let’s hope they’re right that time with Larry Rothschild can get the most out of his untapped potential.

Number 12, Chase Headley, Number 12
Chase Headley is a lucky guy. The Yankees were originally linked to him back in 2012 when he hit .286/.376/.498 with 31 home runs and 115 RBIs for the Padres, but the Yankees didn’t trade for him. He returned to his normal production the last two years and hit just 26 home runs combined in 2013 and 2014. So how exactly is he lucky? Well, if the Yankees had moved major pieces to acquire him for 2013, Headley wouldn’t have many fans left in New York with the immediate loss of his one-year power. Instead, he was traded to the Yankees for only Yangervis Solarte and Rafael De Paula, hit a walk-off single in his first game as a Yankee and proved he’s a good defensive third baseman, who knows how to get on base.

Not only that, but Headley happened to be an impending free agent in the same season that Alex Rodriguez was suspended a full season for PEDs and the Yankees had to go after Headley in the offseason and he got himself a four-year, $52 million deal. Timing is everything and for Headley, his timing has been perfect. Now all he needs to do is play the way he did for the Yankees in 58 games last year for a full season this year.

Number 18, Didi Gregorius, Number 18
Everyone talked about David Robertson having to fill Mariano Rivera’s shoes, well Didi Gregorius has to fill the shoes of Derek Jeter, which is a much taller order than that of a reliever. Hopefully everyone has accepted that Gregorius isn’t Jeter and will never be Jeter and there will never be another Jeter and that will make his transition from the Diamondbacks to the Yankees a little easier.

I have seen Gregorius play minimally during his 191 career games in the majors, but if his glove is as good as touted and his offense can mirror his 2013 season (.252/.332/.373) or if his offense starts to show signs of what he did in 260 Triple-A plate appearances last season (.310/.389/.447) then I have no problem with Didi being the future. Even without knowing what he is yet or what he will become, he’s a better option than watching Stephen Drew or Brendan Ryan become the First Shortstop Since Fourth Grade since we already know what they are.

Number 13, Alex Rodriguez, Number 13
After the initial nonsense of A-Rod’s every move, swing and spit was reported on by the Yankees beat reporters this spring, A-Rod sort of flew under the radar the last few weeks, and that’s why I didn’t put him farther up on the list. I want A-Rod to fly under the radar. I want him to just go about his business and play baseball and not get caught up in the off-the-field nonsense and focus on hitting A-Bombs.

So far he has succeeded at every obstacle since being reinstated whether it be producing on the field, handling the media, dealing with the front office and interacting with the fans. The last step is being productive once the games count and I’m not worried at all about A-Rod this season.

Number 11, Brett Gardner, Number 11
Last year, thanks to a barrage of four home runs in three games in Texas from July 28-30, Gardner thought he was going to be the power hitter the Yankees were lacking. But instead of thinking he had a few good swings against bad Rangers pitching in the late-July Texas heat, Gardner seemed to change his approach at the plate to that of a power hitter.

On Aug. 1, Gardner was hitting .283/.356/.460. The average and on-base were right where you like them for Gardner, and while the slugging was impressive, it’s certainly not needed for Gardner. He finished the season hitting .256/.327/.422 as he completely fell apart over the last two months of the season.

Gardner needs to get back to doing anything he can to get on base and use his speed on the bases. I’m not stupid enough to think he might be return to being the prolific base stealer he was in 2010 and 2011 and not the timid runner who can’t read a pickoff move he was in 2013 and 2014, but I expect him to get back over 30 stolen bases and be dangerous when he reaches first.

(Editor’s Note: These next three Yankees are all equally ranked and that’s because at least two of the three need to bounce back and have productive seasons.)

Number 25, Mark Teixeira, Number 25
As the Editor’s Note said, Teixeira is equal to Beltran and McCann, but I’m going to list Teixeira first, so he is farther away from the top of the list and being the most important.

I have no expectations for Mark Teixeira. He hit .216 last year and missed time with the following injuries: hamstring, wrist, rib cage, knee, lat, tired legs, light-headness and pinky. This spring he was hit by a pitch and I figured it would land him on the 15-day disabled list to start the season.

Here are the Official Gluten-Free Mark Teixeira First Injury of 2015 Odds:

Wrist -350
Hamstring -220
Knee -180
Lat -120
Oblique +225
Tired Legs +400
Other +500

Number 36, Carlos Beltran, Number 36
Carlos Beltran is one year removed from hitting 24 home runs and two years removed from hitting 32. The last time he didn’t hit at least 22 home runs in a full season was when he hit 16 in his first season with the Mets (2005), which could have been him trying to live up to and prove his his $119 million contract since he hit 41 the following year. So there is reason to believe he will bounce back this year, except for the whole part about him turning 38 on April 24 and having had elbow surgery in the offseason. But let’s forget about that for now.

Beltran should have been a Yankee nine years ago when he would have been 27 on Opening Day. This would have been the Yankees lineup on that Opening Day (which was really an Opening Night with Randy Johnson against David Wells and the Red Sox on Sunday Night Baseball):

1. Derek Jeter, SS
2. Alex Rodriguez, 3B (I hit A-Rod second in this lineup because Joe Torre had him hit second in the actual lineup in the game.)
3. Carlos Beltran, CF
4. Gary Sheffield, RF
5. Hideki Matsui, LF
6. Jorge Posada, C
7. Jason Giambi, 1B (Yes, Giambi hit seventh in the actual lineup, but that’s because he was pretty worthless at this point before he magically had a resurgence in the middle of the season.)
8. Bernie Williams, DH
9. Tony Womack, 2B (Ah, Tony Womack. Thankfully Robinson Cano became a Yankee one month later.)

Can we get a redo and sign Beltran instead of trading for Johnson and signing Carl Pavano and Jaret Wright? And if we can do a redo, can we go back to 2004 first and sign Vladimir Guerrero instead of Gary Sheffield?

Number 34, Brian McCann, Number 34
Because the Yankees’ 2013 Opening Day catcher was Francisco Cervelli, I wrote this about McCann in last year’s Order of Importance:

I might be the biggest Brian McCann fan in the world and he hasn’t played in a single game for the Yankees yet. That’s how excited I am for the Brian McCann era and the state of catching for the Yankees. And McCann’s importance in the middle of the lineup and behind the plate is tied to the fact that the person who would replace him is … Francisco Cervelli.

I’m not exactly the biggest McCann fan in the world anymore after he struggled for most of 2014 and finished with a .286 on-base percentage.

The Yankees need either Teixeira and Beltran (not likely) or Teixeira and McCann (more likely) or Beltran and McCann (most likely) to stay healthy and put up true middle-of-the-order numbers this season. If two of those three don’t hit, then the embarrassing offensive seasons from the 2013 and 2014 Yankees might be forgotten with what we could be in for this season.

Number 52, CC Sabathia, Number 52
Sabathia had been No. 1 on this list for every year I had done this, but he’s lost the title. He made only eight starts last year and only two of the eight were good. Sabathia underwent knee surgery that at times was reported to possibly be the end of his career, but he’s back and he’s making $23 million this year whether he pitches like he did from 2009-2012 or how he did in 2013 and 2014.

Sabathia’s importance will drastically change if the starters in front of him can’t stay healthy and the Yankees need him to become the ace he once was again. Unfortunately, if the Yankees need to rely on Sabathia to carry them through the season, the season is over.

Number 48, Andrew Miller, Number 48
It’s scary that Miller is going to wear Number 48, since that will give me nightmares since Boone Logan, Phil Coke, Wayne Franklin, Kyle Farnsworth, Paul Quantrill and Matt Thornton all wore 48. Not exactly the best number choice for your newly-acquired left-handed setup man or closer.

I’m not worried about Miller at all. Usually I worry about new Yankees, especially free-agent signings, but when it comes to Miller, he was successful in Boston and Baltimore and every interview I have watched of him makes me feel like nothing rattles him. He seems and appears calm, cool and collected and when you lose your homegrown closer for a free-agent reliever getting $36 million, well he better be those things.

Normally, you wouldn’t see a non-closer reliever this high, but the Yankees’ rotation is such a question mark that they are going to need their bullpen to shorten games as much as possible and Miller will be a big part of that.

Number 68, Dellin Betances, Number 68
Betances is likely to be the closer over Miller, even though I wish Girardi would scrap the idea of a closer and use the two in whatever situation best suits them whether that’s in the sixth inning of the ninth innings. Sometimes games need to be saved in the seventh inning and not with a two-run lead and the 7-8-9 hitters due up in the ninth inning.

The reports of Betances’ diminished velocity and the earned runs in spring training are worrisome, but then again, it’s spring training and his 2014 season should have been enough to give him the benefit of the doubt when it comes to worrying about his performance. I trust Betances and trust him to be the closer.

Number 22, Jacoby Ellsbury, Number 22
Ellsbury got a free pass for last season because he was considered the “best” hitter on a team full of bad hitters, which isn’t exactly something to be proud of. I wasn’t a fan of signing Ellsbury and certainly wasn’t a fan of using the money that should have been for Robinson Cano to sign a 30-year-old center fielder to a seven-year, $153 million contract. But unfortunately, I can’t go back in time and give Brian Cashman the wrong phone number for Ellsbury’s agent, so I’m going to have to live with it.

And since I’m going to have to live with it, Ellsbury needs to be better. Maybe having a set place in the lineup and not being asked to be the No. 3 hitter a team that has A-Rod, Teixeira and McCann will help stabilize his consistency and make him the player he was in Boston.

There are only three non-question marks or unknowns on this team and they are Ellsbury, Gardner and Headley. You pretty much know what you’re going to get from those three whereas everyone else is either a health or production concern.

Number 35, Michael Pineda, Number 35
Last year, Pineda was ranked 14th out of 14 and that was because I didn’t know how he would pitch or if he would ever pitch for the Yankees. Well, he pitched and pitched incredibly until he loaded his neck up with pine tar and ended up on the DL for most of the season.

After his 2014 comeback and his outstanding spring, I have ridiculously high expectations for Pineda. He just needs to stay healthy. That’s it. He has only pitched 76 1/3 innings in the major in the last three years and now he’s going to be asked to give the Yankees a full season of starts and somewhere around 200 innings. It’s a lot to ask of someone with the injury history he has, but the Yankees don’t have a choice. They decided to go into this season (like they did the last two seasons) needing to hit one massive parlay to reach the postseason and Pineda is the second biggest piece of that parlay.

Number 19, Masahiro Tanaka, Number 19
At the end of Good Will Hunting, Ben Affleck’s character (Chuckie Sullivan) tells Matt Damon’s character (Will Hunting), “You know what the best part of my day is? The ten seconds before I knock on the door ’cause I let myself think I might get there, and you’d be gone. I’d knock on the door and you just wouldn’t be there. You just left.”

You know what the best part of my day is? Every day when I sign online or go on Twitter or turn on the TV or the radio or check my phone and I don’t hear bad news about Masahiro Tanaka’s right arm.

Tanaka and Pineda are the 2015 Yankees. The success of this season and making sure the Yankees don’t miss the playoffs for a third straight time lies in the health of those two. If they stay healthy, the Yankees have the best 1-2 punch in the AL East. If they don’t, the Yankees don’t have a season.

Opening Day • Podcasts • Yankees

Apr 2, 2015

Podcast: JJ Barstool Sports New York

It’s time to look at the 2015 Yankees with some over/unders to get a better sense of what type of season we can expect in the Bronx.

Baseball is back. All that’s separating us from baseball season and Opening Day at Yankee Stadium is the weekend. The weather forecast Monday keeps getting better and better and it looks like we might have the best Opening Day weather in the Bronx in what seems like forever. The season is off to a good start without even having played a game.

JJ of Barstool Sports New York joined me to talk about getting ready for Opening Day, what type of season A-Rod is going to have, trying to believe in Mark Teixeira and Carlos Beltran, who the Yankees’ closer should be, and we pick over/unders for the season.

Also, Keefe To The City has partnered with The Allie Way Sports Bar on East 70th Street between 1st and York in the Upper East Side for Yankees Sunday Funday Viewing Parties this season. The first one is Sunday, April 19 at 1 p.m. when the Yankees head to Tampa to face the Rays. Come to The Allie Way for the game and enjoy drink specials, including $30 (cash) open bar for the entire game!

CLICK HERE FOR MORE YANKEES PODCASTS TO GET YOU READY FOR OPENING DAY

Opening Day • Podcasts • Yankees

Apr 1, 2015

Podcast: Erik Boland

The only thing that needs to happen between now and Opening Day is that the Yankees stay healthy, but they seem to be having a hard time doing so.

Five days to go. Five days. That’s it. That’s all that’s separating us from baseball season and Opening Day at Yankee Stadium. The only thing that needs to happen between now and then is that the Yankees stay healthy, but they seem to be having a hard time doing so.

Erik Boland, the Yankees beat writer for Newsday, joined me to talk about Stephen Drew’s status on the Yankees at second base and shortstop, the resurgence of A-Rod in spring training, what worries the front office the most about this team and where the level of expectation is for this season.

Blogs • Opening Day • Yankees

Apr 1, 2015

The Season of Optimism for the Yankees

The only way to think about the 2015 Yankees is positively or it’s going to be a long summer, which makes it easier to do over/unders for the season.

I’m officially declaring the 2015 Yankees season as the Season of Optimism. Right now there are so many question marks and unknowns surrounding this team at every position other than left field (Brett Gardner), center field (Jacoby Ellsbury) and third base (Chase Headley).

Every starter in the rotation is either a health or performance concern. First base, second base, shortstop, right field and designated hitter are the same. The bullpen is the one clear strength that no one should worry about, but even there, a closer hasn’t been named and aside from Dellin Betances and Andrew Miller, none of the other hard-throwing relievers have pitched for the Yankees before. Knowing all of that, the only thing to be about this team is optimistic because if you’re not then you might in for a long season. How long this optimism will last? Well, I guess that depends on the health of Masahiro Tanaka’s right elbow and Michael Pineda’s right shoulder.

This optimism has led me to create some over/unders for the 2015 Yankees and for most of the numbers I created, my picks for each are about being as positive as possible.

CC Sabathia – 4.50 ERA
Did I set the ERA for a pitcher making $23 million this season (and $25 million in 2016 and possibly 2017) at the equivalent of a quality start? Yes. Yes, I did. That’s a big drop off from the pitcher who averaged 18 wins and a 3.22 ERA per season in his first four years with the Yankees (2009-2012).

Just being healthy isn’t going to cut it for Sabathia. He needs to be healthy and good. Not great like he once was, just good and that means better than he was in 2013 and 2014. His numbers this spring have been bad and the three home runs allowed in 4 2/3 innings is reminiscent of what made him bad in 2013 and 2014. With this offense, he’s not going to rack up the wins despite pitching poorly like Randy Johnson did in 2006 when he won 17 games with a 5.00 ERA. Sabathia is going to need to find a way to get outs without overpowering hitters the way his former teammate Andy Pettitte and supposed best friend Cliff Lee were able to do. (Let’s hope he talked to them.) Given the health concerns of Tanaka and Pined every pitch they throw, Sabathia is going to need to be relied on. That makes me uncomfortable, but … optimism! Under.

Mark Teixeira – .245 AVG.
Mark Teixeira hit .216 last season. .216! The year before coming to the Yankees he hit .308. In his first season with the Yankees, he hit .292. I thought it was bad when he dropped to .256 in 2010 and started transforming into Jason Giambi 2.0 with only the short porch in right on his mind and no care for ever attempting to the hit the ball the other way as a left-handed hitter. But now we’re way past being Jason Giambi 2.0 and Teixeira is looking more like Adam Dunn or Mark Reynolds with less power.

For Teixeira to hit over .245, he will have to remain healthy, not miss games with wrist or other varying injuries, be willing to hit the ball to the left side of the field when he’s hitting left-handed and not think that he can take any pitcher over the 314 FT. sign in right field. There’s a better chance that the Yankees replicate their 1998 season than there is that Teixeira does those things. Under.

Jacoby Ellsbury – 16.5 HOME RUNS
I used to talk about Brady Anderson and ask which one of these doesn’t belong: 21, 13, 12, 16, 50, 18, 18, 24, 19, 8? Those are Anderson’s home run totals for his full seasons in the majors and that 50 from 1996 looks more out of place than the Martini Bar inside Yankee Stadium.

When it comes to Ellsbury, you can ask the same question about which of these doesn’t belong: 9, 8, 32, 9 and 16? I’m not sure how Ellsbury hit .321/.376/.552 with 32 home runs and 105 RBIs to finish second in the AL MVP voting to Justin Verlander, but I really wish he would become that player again. Ellsbury got a pass last year despite having a down year because he was the “best” hitter on a team full of bad hitters. I don’t think that .271/.328/.419 is what the Yankees thought they were going to get for Ellsbury’s 30-year-old season when they gave him seven years and $153 million.

Everyone kept saying that Ellsbury’s swing combined with the short porch would mean at least 20-25 home runs playing 81 games at Yankee Stadium. I’m hoping that 2013 will be Ellsbury’s version of Carlos Beltran’s 2005 or he will become Johnny Damon’s 2006 and 2009. Over.

Brett Gardner – 30 STOLEN BASES
Brett Gardner’s baserunning career has been a disappointment. After stealing 47 and 49 bases in 2010 and 2011 respectively, he only stole 24 in 2013 and 21 in 2014. He’s supposed to be the cheaper version of Jacoby Ellsbury and not the power hitter he thinks he became thanks to three nights in Texas last July. Gardner needs to get back to being a threat on the bases and not someone who is scared of every pickoff move in the league. Over.

Alex Rodriguez – 100 GAMES PLAYED
I have big plans for A-Rod. Not the kind of plans that include the 54 home runs and 156 RBIs from 2007. But something better than 2012 when he 18 home runs and 57 RBIs (though I would sign up for that right now). In order for A-Rod to make my plans happen, he’s going to need to stay healthy and play a lot and that means more than 100 games, which he has only done once (2012) in the last four years.

But this is the Season of Optimism and that means thinking A-Rod is going to play a full season and be productive and be everything that every writer from the Daily News and Post didn’t think he would or could be. Over.

Stephen Drew – STILL A YANKEE ON JUNE 1
I like how Brian Cashman was so adamant this spring about how Drew is the Yankees’ starting second baseman no matter what while he said Alex Rodriguez had to earn a spot on the team. Unfortunately, for my DFA Stephen Drew, #GiveRobTheJob and #SayOkToJose campaigns, Stephen Drew has started hitting a little and is now up to .244/.306/.444 this spring.

Drew is going to be a Yankee on Opening Day. He is going to get announced in the starting lineup and jog out to the first-base line, which is something I wished I wouldn’t have to see given that he hit .150/.219/.271 for the Yankees last year.

If Drew doesn’t hit the way he hasn’t most of March and the way he didn’t in 46 games for the Yankees last year and the way he didn’t in 39 games for the Red Sox last year and the way he didn’t in the 2013 postseason, then the Yankees will release him and eat the remaining money of his $5 million. And then we will finally get to see Rob Refsnyder or Jose Pirela play second base, which is what we should have seen all along. The Yankees have been trying to patch up the holes on their sinking boat with players like Drew for the last three years, but at some point you just need a new boat. Rob Refsnyder and Jose Pirela are that new boat. Under.

Chase Headley – .350 OBP
When the Yankees traded for Chase Headley, everyone looked at that .286-31-115 season from 2012 and hoped that he would find that hitting as a Yankee. But it was the Padres’ willingness to trade an impending free agent hitting .229/.296/.355 with cash for just Yangervis Solarte and Rafael De Paula.

What stuck out the most about Headley’s time with the Yankees in 2014 was his .371 on-base percentage, which was 24 points better than his career .347 on-base percentage and close to his 2011 (.374) and 2012 (.376) seasons in San Diego. If Headley can get on base the way he did for 58 games last year, it will make up for the lack of power the Yankees have at third. (Unless their former third baseman and now DH can make up the difference.) Over.

Carlos Beltran – 20.5 HOME RUNS
Carlos Beltran is one year removed from hitting 24 home runs and two years removed from hitting 32. The last time he didn’t hit at least 22 home runs in a full season was when he hit 16 in his first season with the Mets (2005), which could have been him trying to live up to and prove his his $119 million contract since he hit 41 the following year.

The Yankees signed Carlos Beltran 10 offseasons too late, he’s going to turn 38 on April 24 and after his elbow injury last season that kept him from playing the field and from hitting for power and needed surgery on in the offseason, I’m not sure that believing in Beltran is the best use of anyone’s energy. Under.

Dellin Betances and Andrew Miller – 40.5 SAVES
The Yankees still haven’t decided who their closer is and maybe that’s because Joe Girardi has decided to go with no closer and use whichever reliever a particular situation calls for? OK, so there’s no chance of that happening, but I can dream.

It would make the most sense to have Betances and Miller ready for any and all situations and not just save opportunities for one or both of them in order to shorten games for a team whose rotation is shaky past Tanaka and Pineda and is shaky even with them given their health histories.

Taking the over here means the Yankees are winning games. Sure, they’re winning close games, but they’re winning them. Over.

Nathan Eovaldi – 11.5 WINS
This is Nathan Eovaldi’s line from this spring: 13.2 IP, 10 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 14 K, 0.66 ERA, 0.732 WHIP. Eovaldi isn’t going to keep those kind of numbers up since that would translate to the best starting pitching performance in the history of baseball and the best season of any athlete in any sport in the history of sports. Wayne Gretzky’s 92-120-212 season from 1981-82 wouldn’t even be in the same stratosphere. Since Eovaldi isn’t going to go the entire season without walking a batter, it’s time to think more realistically.

Those 14 strikeouts in 13 2/3 innings this spring is what everyone should be looking for from Eovaldi. He has never come close to striking out one hitter per inning in his five seasons in the league and as a hard-throwing starter, it’s a little odd. One Mets fan told me he’s going to be the Yankees’ Mike Pelfrey as someone who throws mid-to-high-90s and doesn’t strike anyone out. But after trading Martin Prado, who was looking to be a vital piece to the 2015 Yankees and David Phelps, who the organization has loved, for Eovaldi, let’s hope they’re right that time with Larry Rothschild can get the most out of his untapped potential. Over.

Michael Pineda – 160 INNINGS PITCHED
In the last three years, Michael Pineda has thrown 76 1/3 innings in the majors. But like the Yankees’ other front-end starter, if Pineda doesn’t stay healthy, well, there are a lot of other things to do from April to September other than watch Yankees baseball. Over.

Masahiro Tanaka – 27.5 STARTS
Masahiro Tanaka made 20 starts last season. In Japan, starting in 2013 and going back to 2007, he made 27, 22, 27, 20, 24, 24 and 28 starts (as part of a six-man rotation). So if Tanaka is going to make more than 27.5 starts this season, he’s going to do something he’s only ever done once in his life and he’s going to to do it in the season following a season in which every prominent surgeon had to examine an MRI of his right elbow. Thinking Tanaka is going to pitch the full season is a little overly optimistic, but that’s the only way to be with this team or it’s going to be a long summer. Over.

Opening Day • Podcasts • Yankees

Mar 31, 2015

Podcast: John Jastremski

The Yankees over/under numbers for win is 82.5 and that’s because the level of comfort entering this season feels exactly the way it did for the last two years.

Six days to go. Six days. That’s it. That’s all that’s separating us from baseball season and Opening Day at Yankee Stadium. The current forecast for the Bronx on Monday is 54 and partly cloudy, so let’s hope that holds up and we get some reasonable weather for a season opener.

WFAN host John Jastremski joined me to talk about what should worry Yankees fans the most about this team, why it’s time to give the prospects a chance in the Bronx, how entering this season feels the same as the last two years and predictions for the AL East along with win totals.

Opening Day • Podcasts • Yankees

Mar 30, 2015

Podcast: Chad Jennings

Opening Day is now a week away, so it’s time to check in down in Tampa with the latest from spring training before the games actually matter.

One week to go. One week. That’s it. That’s all that’s separating us from baseball season and Opening Day at Yankee Stadium. It seems a little ridiculous to think that the Yankees will be playing here next Monday considering it was snowing this weekend, but after back-to-back postseason-less seasons and a brutal winter, I’m willing to watch the Yankees play in snow to have baseball back in my life.

Chad Jennings, the Yankees beat writer for The Journal News and the LoHud Yankees Blog, joined me to talk about the Yankees as spring training winds down in Tampa, what to expect from Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira, why Stephen Drew is still the starting second baseman, the state of the rotation, why Joe Girardi should revolutionize baseball with his bullpen and how Yankees fans should feel about this team right now.

Tag: CC Sabathia