C.J. Wilson – Keefe To The City

Jul 6, 2015

The Necessary Nine

The Yankees have an important nine-game stretch before the All-Star break that could set them up nicely for the second half if they win six of the games.

In 2007, the Yankees faced a 12-game stretch that the Daily News believed would make or break their season by calling it the “Dirty Dozen.” In 2013, the Yankees faced a 14-game stretch before the All-Star break, which held the same challenge, that I called the Final 14. Both stretches presented times the Yankees were fighting for their playoff lives and needing to win in bunches to keep their season from turning meaningless. This season, before the All-Star break, the Yankees are in a different position, but playing a very significant stretch: the Necessary Nine.

I have been fortunate to have a baseball summer nearly my entire life. The last time the Yankees finished under .500 was 1992 when I was six. Since then, it’s been 22 straight over-.500 seasons with playoff appearances every season except for 1994 (thanks to the strike), 2008, 2013 and 2014. The 2008, 2013 and 2014 were good enough to keep my summers alive and string me along into believing they could overcome incredible injuries, but they weren’t good to give me a fall. And like Bobby Knight once told his Indiana team, “You will not put me in that f-cking position again.” I need a fall this year. I have to have a fall.

The 2015 Yankees are a weird team. They have the ability to start the year 3-6 and then go on an 18-6 run. They have been swept by the Rangers and have swept the Royals. They have lost two out of three to the Phillies at home and they have beaten Jacob deGrom, Felix Hernandez and Max Scherzer. They have been unpredictable and frustrating at times and dominant and unbeatable other times. But the one constant with them is that they have stayed at or near the top of the AL East for the entire season, which is something they weren’t able to do the last two years.

The “Necessary Nine” began on Friday night against Tampa Bay. With nine games against the Rays, A’s and Red Sox standing between the Yankees from the All-Star break and four consecutive off days, this is their chance to create separation in the division and take the Red Sox out of the race completely. The Red Sox have played better of late even with the worst rotation in the league, but they’re still six games under .500 (39-45) even if Bostonians want you to believe that record is reversed with their over-the-top optimism. A series win or another sweep in Boston this weekend would keep the Yankees where they are and send the city of Boston into an All-Star Game depression, allowing them to do something other than focus on baseball for the rest of summer.

Sunday’s loss to the Rays was the 82nd game of the season and the official start of the second half (the first post-All-Star Game will be the 89th game), and with the 8-1 loss, the Yankees are 44-38 and one game up in the division. The series win over the Rays was the first checkpoint for the “Necessary Nine” since it kept them on pace for the needed record over this stretch, kept the Rays at bay and kept the Yankees in first place and still one game up, which is where they were before Friday’s game, while taking three more games off the schedule. Next up is beating up on the lowly A’s before the important first-half finale in Boston.

But before the Yankees head to Boston, they have to take care of business at home against the A’s, a last-place team that already took three of four from them in Oakland at the end of May. And since the Yankees never miss out on facing an opposing team’s ace, of course they will see Sonny Gray in the series opener on Tuesday night. It will be the second time the Yankees have seen him, after just having seen Chris Archer over the weekend, C.J. Wilson the series before that, Dallas Keuchel the series before that and Cole Hamels the series before that.

The Yankees should win six of the nine and now that they have already won two, that means winning four of six against the last-place A’s and Red Sox. “Should” was never a problem in the pre-2013 Yankees world, but now it’s become a dangerous and powerful word that leaves Yankees fans puzzled after disappointing losses to bad teams.

I want to go back to when the Yankees took care of business against bad teams and games they “should” win turned into actual wins. I want to go back to when the Yankees being in first place at the All-Star break was a sure-thing. We’re almost there.

Blogs • Email Exchanges • Yankees

Jun 29, 2015

Mike Scioscia Is in a Joe Torre Situation

The Yankees let another strong starting pitching performance get away from them in Houston and now they head to Anaheim where they always have trouble.

The Yankees let another strong starting pitching performance get away from them on Sunday in Houston to end up with a split against the first-place Astros. Now the Yankees head to the West Coast for the final time this season to Anaheim where they always have trouble.

With the Yankees and Angels meeting for the second and final time this season, Garrett Wilson of Monkey with a Halo joined me to talk about watching Mike Trout’s young MVP career and Albert Pujols trying to regain his former MVP abilities, the perception of Mike Scioscia in Anaheim and the Angels’ shaky starting rotation.

Keefe: I get sick of hearing about how the Yankees could have drafted New Jersey native Mike Trout if they hadn’t signed Mark Teixeira after the 2008 season, giving the Angels another first-round pick, which they used to draft Trout. It’s nice to think that Trout would have still been there for the Yankees to take, but even if they had, with the way the Yankees develop players, he would probably still be in the minors waiting to make his Major League debut,

The reigning AL MVP is at it again, hitting .300/.389/.575 with 19 home runs and 42 RBIs so far and making a case to be the AL MVP again. Trout is still just 23 and will be an Angel through at least 2020 and will possibly be a free agent at age 28.

How fun is it watching the best player in baseball every day and how relieving is it to know he will be an Angel for at least the next five seasons after this one?

Wilson: That’s funny because I’m tired of hearing it too, mostly because it is a lie. Trout would never have been there. The Angels had the No. 25 pick from the Yanks, but they also had the No. 24 pick. If they only had the No. 24, they would’ve picked Trout. They only selected him 25th for bonus negotiation purposes. But I digress …

It is immensely fun to watch Mike Trout play for your team. I highly recommend that every team go out and get a Mike Trout. It has been especially nice to have him this season because the roster is otherwise intensely painful to watch. Seriously, I can’t stand watching 84 percent of this roster right now, but Trout makes it worth tuning in every single night. Not only does he just consistently do amazing things, but, while he isn’t a fountain of personality, he clearly loves playing the game and that’s just fun to see in a player as good as he is. Not every superstar needs to be a brooding, over-competitive jerk or a carefully cultivated media persona, not that Yankees fans would have any idea what I am talking about with either of those examples.

Keefe: On the bad side of contracts, as of now, Albert Pujols will be an Angel longer than Trout, Pujols is signed through 2021 as part of his 10-year, $240 million deal, and he’s in just his fourth year of that deal.

No one expected Pujols to leave St. Louis and no one thought he would continue to be the player he was in his prime, but now that he’s been an Angel, what have you thought of his production and his renewed power this season? Were you a fan of the signing back before 2012?

Wilson: Seeing Pujols recapture at least part of his former self has been more of a relief than anything. When he signed that albatross contract, everyone knew it wasn’t going to be a good deal, but there was at least the notion that he had a few more MVP-level years left in him. That didn’t happen and it was very depressing. At least this tremendous few weeks from him has given us a glimpse of the Pujols the Angels thought they were getting. Still, even if he keeps it up all season, it isn’t going to do much to make his contract any less of a bad investment.

As for the signing at the time, I sort of half-approved of it. The money involved was always stupid, but I kind of believe Albert when he says that he’ll retire if his performance falls off a cliff before the contract is done. That might be a foolish belief though just because star athletes never admit their performance has deteriorated. Really though the reason I condoned it was because Arte Moreno really needed to show the world that the Angels could land a star free agent, especially after they colossally botched their pursuit of Carl Crawford and Adrian Beltre the year before. In hindsight, that seemed to backfire on the Angels because it emboldened Moreno to throw more big money after Josh Hamilton and we all know how well that turned out.

Keefe: For a long time, we heard about how Mike Scioscia seemed to be the best manager in the majors and how he had the Angels in contention year in and year out despite roster turnover. Well, after 2009, the Angel missed the playoffs for four years before returning to them last season and during that time, the Scioscia lovefest cooled considerably to the point that people believed his job was in question.

Scioscia has a $50 million deal that runs through 2018 and after last season’s performance, I have to believe that he is back in Angels’ fans good graces and has his job security back (if he ever even lost it).

Are you a Scioscia fan? Is he still the right man for the Angels, and did you ever want him fired?

Wilson: Angels fans are in a weird place with Scioscia. I think he has worn out his welcome with a lot of the fans, but those same fans admit that there isn’t any obvious managerial upgrade out there. I am mostly a proponent of Scioscia. He’s evolved a lot of his philosophies around roster optimization and in-game tactics, but he still falls back on some pretty idiotic habits now and again. All of that is overrated though. The thing that Scioscia has always done well and that nobody ever really sees is that he controls the clubhouse. Things, for the first time I can recall, did a get a bit rocky two years ago, but other than that, he’s kept that clubhouse harmonious and kept the team focused.

As for his job security, I actually think there might still be some question about it, though it comes more from his side of things. He has an opt-out in his contract after the year and I have an inkling that he might at least consider walking away if the Dodgers or Phillies come make some overtures. Not unlike with Joe Torre in New York, there just reaches a point where a club just needs a new voice. I’m not sure we’ve reached that point, but Scioscia might given how much he’s sublimated to the front office the last three years. Then again, the front office might not survive this season, so who knows.

Personally, I wouldn’t be upset if Scioscia moved on assuming he is replaced by a manager who is more in tune with general manager Jerry Dipoto’s more sabermetric philosophies. Right now, it feels like both guys are kind of bending over backwards to meet the other guy halfway and it just isn’t working out.

Keefe: On a team that has C.J. Wilson, Jered Weaver and Garrett Richards, it’s Hector Santiago who has the best numbers of the group. When it comes to playing the Angels, I used to fear them as a whole, but after what I saw in the three-game sweep earlier in June at Yankee Stadium, if you can hold the top of their lineup, their starting pitching is vulnerable and very beatable.

Are you worried about the Angels’ rotation?

Wilson: I’m not that worried about that rotation. Santiago has a great ERA right now, but he is wildly outperforming his peripherals. Wilson has actually been much better than his overall numbers, he has been mostly pretty good but has had a few horrible starts that have skewed his line. Richards is looking like an ace again and now that Heaney has been called up and Matt Shoemaker has seemingly fixed his mechanical issues, the only real concern is that Jered Weaver might be washed up.

I know that doesn’t sound like a very convincing case, but you asked if I was worried, not impressed. Make no mistake, this is not a dominant rotation, but it is good enough to give the Angels a chance at winning every night. Whether or not it would hold up in the postseason is an entirely different conversation.

Keefe: Last season, the Angels finished with a 98-64 record, which was the best in Major League Baseball and returned to the playoffs for the first time since 2009. However, once they got there, they were swept by the Royals in the ALDS.

Coming off a 98-win season, but in an improved AL West with the Astros and Rangers being competitive once again, what are your expectations for the Angels this season? Have they changed after watching the team play for nearly one half of the season?

Wilson: Perhaps it was just hubris, but coming into the season I was very confident the Angels would win the AL West with the worst-case scenario being a team that narrowly misses out on the wild card. Now, I am trying to figure out how they are only four games out of first place. Their lineup has cratered in a way that I didn’t think was possible. Trout and Pujols have been terrific and the fact that Johnny Giavotella is actually useful have been very nice, but nobody could’ve predicted that literally everyone else would have the worst offensive performance of their career to date. Freese, Aybar, Joyce, Iannetta and Calhoun have all been disappointing to varying degrees and there just isn’t much hope that they are going to be able to turn it around enough to return this offense to being the elite group it was last season. The only way to give me new hope in this team is if the Angels make a deal (probably two) to beef up the lineup.

Blogs • Email Exchanges • Yankees

Aug 13, 2012

Yankees and Rangers Share Identical Situations

The Rangers are in the Bronx for a four-game series and possible playoff preview and the meeting between the AL’s top two teams called for an email exchange with Adam J. Morris of Lone Star Ball.

The Yankees and Rangers haven’t met since April 25 in Texas when the Rangers took the rubber game of a three-game set early on in the season. This week the Rangers make their first and only trip to the Bronx for a four-game series, which will be the last four games this two teams play against each other in 2012 … unless they meet in the postseason.

Right now the Yankees and Rangers are the top two teams in the American League and are jockeying for position to stay out of the dreaded and nonsensical one-game playoff and trying to clinch home-field advantage. The Yankees still lead the AL East by five games, but some inconsistent play combined with a Tampa Bay winning streak has started to make things a little uncomfortable for the Yankees and Yankees fans in August.

Adam J. Morris of Lone Star Ball joined me for an email exchange to talk about the current state of the Yankees and Rangers, how they are very similar with their rosters and problems and the possibility of another postseason meeting between the two teams.

Keefe: I’ll never forget what Michael Kay said after the Yankees’ comeback in Game 1 of 2010 ALCS on YES’ postgame show. “I said it after Game 1 against the Twins and I’m saying it again … this series is over.” Sure, the Yankees had just completed an epic postseason game comeback against C.J. Wilson and the Rangers bullpen, in very similar fashion to what they had done against Francisco Liriano and Twins in Game 1 of the ALDS, and they had Phil Hughes (who shut down the Twins in Game 3 of the ALDS and who always pitched well in Texas) going in Game 2 against Colby Lewis the next day, along with all of the momentum on their side. It seemed like the Yankees were in a great position to head to the Bronx up 2-0 in the series. That’s when everything changed.

Hughes got lit up in Game 2, and would get lit up again in Game 6, turning in disastrous performances that mirrored Chien-Ming Wang’s awful 2007 ALDS against the Indians. The Yankees were shut down by Lewis in Game 3 and again in Game 6, and between those games, Cliff Lee quieted Yankee Stadium (again) in Game 3, and a combination of Joe Girardi, A.J. Burnett and Yankee killer Bengie Molina cost the Yankees Game 4. Even though the Yankees were able to get to Wilson again and win Game 5, as I was sitting in the Stadium for Game 5, it felt like a tease to extend the series. Even if the Yankees could take Game 6, Cliff Lee was waiting for a potential Game 7, and all he had done is embarrass the Yankees in the last two postseasons.

I said that everything changed for the ALCS after the Yankees’ Game 2 loss, but really it changed when they didn’t get Cliff Lee that July. Had the Yankees successfully traded for Lee, he would have pitched Game 2 of the series and not Hughes, and he wouldn’t have been available for the Rangers to shut the Yankees down with a two-hit, complete-game shutout in Game 3.

When the Yankees lost to the Tigers in last year’s ALDS, it sucked the way that the end of any Yankees season sucks. But knowing that the Rangers were waiting in the ALCS to likely walk through the Yankees again lessened the blow of losing to a Tigers team that the Yankees had a chance to beat every game if they could just get one hit with runners in scoring position.

Right now I look at the Yankees’ potential playoff matchups and the one that scares me the most is still your Texas Rangers for now the third straight year. I know Cliff Lee isn’t there and the vaunted (at least to Yankees fans) Colby Lewis is out for the season, but that lineup is as good as its been and the bullpen still boasts names you don’t want to see in the late innings.

As a Rangers fan, how do you feel about my fear of the Rangers? Are you as confident about your team as I am about not wanting anything to do with them this October?

Morris: I feel good about the Rangers’ chances in 2012. After the last couple of seasons, it’s hard not to have confidence that the Rangers are going to do well in the postseason. This is, for the most part, the same team that has reached the World Series the past two years. With Texas now up 6 1/2 games on the A’s and eight games on the Angels, we should be looking at having home-field advantage for the ALDS, and if they can hold off the Yankees, it would mean home-field advantage in the ALCS as well.

The biggest concern right now for Rangers fans is the state of the starting rotation. Yu Darvish was brought in to be the staff ace, and he essentially replaced C.J. Wilson. Darvish has been up and down all season, looking at times like a guy who is worth the $110 million the Rangers have spent and committed in the future to land him, while looking at other times like a guy who has no idea where the ball is going. Colby Lewis, who was slated to be the team’s Game 1 starter in the playoffs, is down for the year with a torn flexor tendon, and the team is going to miss his steadying influence. Roy Oswalt, given $5 million to pitch for a half-season, was bumped to the bullpen in favor of Scott Feldman, the guy whose job he was supposed to take. Derek Holland has been erratic, and there are still questions about whether Ryan Dempster can adjust to the AL. The team’s best starter has been Matt Harrison, a guy who was left off the 2010 postseason roster entirely. So the rotation is in flux, and while Texas will probably roll out four starters who won’t embarrass them in the postseason, they don’t have that legitimate No. 1 guy to head up the playoff rotation.

That being said, the bullpen is strong and deep, and the lineup is solid. There are concerns that the offense has gone into funks from time to time this year, but all in all, I think Rangers fans should be feeling pretty good about this team heading into the postseason.

Keefe: Well, when you put it that way, maybe I shouldn’t be so concerned with the Rangers. Then again, I have seen the Yankees struggle against even mediocre starting pitching in the playoffs to get too excited about the Rangers’ rotation issues.

I wanted to talk more with you about Cliff Lee because to me he has always been The One That Got Away, and the one that I believe was the missing piece to what would have been back-to-back championships in 2010.

After the Rangers went “all-in” for a chance to return to the postseason in 2010, and you swooped in to get Lee for Justin Smoak from the Mariners, I was devastated. I had woken up that July to a flurry of texts and emails about a report that the Yankees were close to getting Lee for Jesus Montero and the deal seemed to be at the one-yard line and just needed some t’s crossed and some i’s dotted. Obviously the t’s never got crossed and the i’s remained dotless, and Lee did what he did in Game 3, and put a dagger into the Yankees’ season. But I was reassured that he would be part of the rotation in 2011 before Ruben Amaro and the Phillies had to join the party as Jon Heyman’s “mystery team” and make a play for him. This move basically ruined the Christmas hype for me and led to me writing this.

This season, with the Phillies tanking, and rumors of Lee being available and placed on waivers, I thought this was the Yankees’ third chance to get Lee and fate along the lines of Matt Damon and Emily Blunt in The Adjustment Bureau. But with the Steinbrenner’s being serious about staying under the luxury tax, and the Dodgers’ new money trying to make a statement to the league, the Yankees lost out on the chance to trade for him or claim him.

I still haven’t gotten the chance to have Lee take the ball for the Yankees every fifth day, and at this point, maybe I never will unless something miraculous happens in the offseason. I want him now just as much as I did two summers ago when he joined your team. But I need to know what it was like to have maybe my favorite non-Yankee (before he torched them) pitch for your team.

Morris: Having Lee in Texas, even for a short period of time, was something special. He is an artist on the mound. I think watching him on a regular basis was probably like being a Braves fan in the mid-90s and watching Greg Maddux every fifth day. The weird thing is that the Rangers didn’t actually win all that much with Lee on the mound during the regular season, as he had some outings where he had bad luck with the defense or balls in play, or the offense wouldn’t score for him. But despite all that, when it came to be playoff time, I had no doubts that the Rangers would win with Lee on the mound.

I’m sad he’s gone. He’s a special pitcher. But at the same time, the amount of money that the Phillies committed to him is onerous, and I don’t know that it would be a good business decision to match that, given his age and the fact that he’s had a hard time staying healthy. His impeccable command is based on him being in terrific physical condition, and I’m worried that the nagging injuries that keep slowing him down will take their toll on him sooner rather than later.

Keefe: The Rangers’ rotation isn’t necessarily what it has been the last two years. But as a Yankees fan, with Andy Pettitte still rehabbing his ankle, CC Sabathia hitting the DL with an elbow problem that appears to be much more serious than Joe Girardi led on to believe and Phil Hughes and Ivan Nova being hit or miss right now, that leaves us with Hiroki Kuroda as a reliable starter. (Sorry, Freddy Garcia.) So it looks like if we meet in the ALCS for the second time in three years, it could be an offensive gongshow in two stadiums built for high-scoring games.

And that’s what scares me about the Rangers team. The lineup from top to bottom can go toe-to-toe with the Yankees’, and that’s always been the Yankees’ one advantage. Their mentality since 2004 has always been, you might outpitch us, but we’ll outhit you. And that idea has only turned into one title. Hopefully, CC will be fine, Andy will come back, and I won’t need to pray for A-Rod, Mark Teixeira and Nick Swisher to get timely hits in big spots with runners in scoring position.

As I look up and down the Rangers’ lineup, there’s Ian Kinsler and Andrus and Hamilton and Beltre and Cruz, and Yankee killers Michael Young, and the most-feared power-hitting catcher in the league in Mike Napoli. Over the last decade I had grown used to worrying about the Red Sox and their lineup and when David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez would be due up. There were other guys in their lineup that bothered me, but not to that extent. In the Rangers’ lineup, every guy makes me uneasy and this week at the Stadium (and possibly in the playoffs) that level of discomfort and fear will only rise.

As a Yankees fan, when Teixeira is up, I envision a pop-up. When Swisher is up, I see a called third strike in a full count. When A-Rod’s up, I see a long drive that would have been out in year’s past before his decline. Am I just thinking like this because I know these hitters so well, or are fans like Rangers fans petrified of the Yankees’ lineup? My friends that are Red Sox fans used to tell me they were scared of A-Rod and Gary Sheffield and petrified of Hideki Matsui, and I really only understood the Matsui thinking. Are you scared of the Yankees’ lineup, and which opposing players scare you the most?

Morris: I think the Yankees have an impressive lineup. Other than Robinson Cano, there isn’t one guy who’s having a dominant offensive season, but the Yankees’ lineup is solid from top to bottom, with no real weaknesses (other than maybe third base now that A-Rod is out).

Between the Rangers and Yankees, I think it’s just about a coin flip as to which team is stronger offensively. Like the Yankees, the Rangers are pretty solid top to bottom (with the exception of DH, where Michael Young has been drowning all season), and they have dangerous hitters throughout who can give you the opportunity for a big inning. If I had to pick someone on the Yankees who scares me, it would probably be Cano or Curtis Granderson. Both are quality hitters who (based on just my memory) seem to hit the Rangers well.

Keefe: If the Yankees do what I want them to do then Nick Swisher won’t be playing right field for the Yankees starting in 2013. As an impending free agent and with the Yankees set on staying under the luxury-tax threshold that is ruining my life, it looks like they will save money to make offers to both Robinson Cano and Curtis Granderson. Maybe they will try to bring Ichiro back if he continues to hit and doesn’t show signs of decline in the outfield or on the basepaths. But the one name that is the most intriguing is Josh Hamilton.

I really don’t think the Yankees will make a play for Hamilton, though I have said that about a lot of other big-name free agents that they decided to join and win the bidding on. But I think in Hamilton’s case, with his checkered past and problems with substance abuse, New York City doesn’t seem like the best place for someone who can’t have more than $20 in their wallet (even though that won’t even get you a sandwich and a subway fare in the city, let alone a beer) and for someone who needs another adult to shadow them. I can easily see Hamilton enjoying the short porch in right field if he were to call Yankee Stadium his home starting in 2012, but I don’t think it’s realistic.

How badly do you want Hamilton to remain a Ranger? And if he’s not back in Texas, where else could you see him ending up?

Morris: I’d like Hamilton to stay in Texas, but I’m expecting him to leave after the season. The biggest concern that I have with Hamilton is that I don’t think he’s going to age well. He has an extensive injury history which is worrisome, but his approach is also a big red flag. His tendency to swing at almost anything, whether it’s a ball or a strike, has generally served him well thus far, but it’s not the sort of approach which appears to be sustainable for a player as he gets older and he starts to slow down.

As great as Hamilton is now, I fear that his decline phase will be steep, and I don’t think that he’s someone you want to commit big money to for his mid- and late-30s. Eight years, $200 million is the number that gets bandied about, and he’s not going to get that in Texas.

I thought before the season that the Dodgers made sense, given that they are committed to spending money and want big names. I’m less certain that the Dodgers will be players on Hamilton, given that they’ve locked up Andre Ethier, and I don’t know that they want to have $60 million per year committed long term to a Matt Kemp-Josh Hamilton-Andre Ethier outfield, but I still think they’ll at least kick the tires. The Mariners, who have lost Ichiro, would also seem to be a good fit.

Keefe: I didn’t want Ryan Dempster on the Yankees and with less than an hour to go in the trade deadline it looked like the Yankees might be the favorite to land him and some places were reporting that in fact the Yankees were close to getting a deal done with the Cubs. But like Cliff Lee, your Rangers stepped in and traded for Dempster. But unlike Cliff Lee, I wasn’t disappointed that the Rangers stepped in.

So far out of Dempster you have seen why I didn’t want the Yankees to trade for an aging NL pitcher in his start against the Angels, but you have also seen why the Rangers made the move for him in his start against the Red Sox. I’m not really sure which Dempster you will see over the final six weeks or so of the season and the postseason, but I can only hope on Monday night at the Stadium, we get to see the Ryan Dempster that showed up to the AL and got rocked by the Angels.

What was your initial reaction to the Rangers getting Dempster? Were you happy with the move?

Morris: My initial reaction to learning we had traded for Dempster was mixed. The Rangers were in a position where they could have used a solid starter, but I didn’t see it as a need, and was concerned that the cost in terms of prospects would be too high.

But when I learned that the Rangers had given up just Christian Villanueva and Kyle Hendricks, and that Neftali Feliz was going to undergo Tommy John surgery and thus wouldn’t re-join the rotation, I was happy with the move. I would have liked a No. 1, but the price for would have been prohibitive.

Blogs • MLB

Dec 7, 2011

Mets Make Moves To Salvage Mess

The Mets responded to the departure of Jose Reyes with a busy Tuesday night in which they traded Angel Pagan and signed a pair of free agents. Rich Coutinho joined me for an epic email discussion to talk about the moves.

This column was originally published on WFAN.com on Dec. 7, 2011.

The Mets delivered their fans a dagger on Sunday night when they failed to meet or exceed the Marlins’ offer for Jose Reyes, and on Wednesday, Reyes was introduced as a member of the Mets’ division rival.

Right after the Mets watched their franchise shortstop, who has been with the organization for 12 years, leave through free agency, Sandy Alderson spoke with the media and made the Mets’ finances known and what people could expect from the team in the near future as they play with the payroll of a small-market team in the country’s biggest market. Then on Tuesday night, Alderson went on a spending spree and changed the look of the 2012 Mets with a pair of free agents and a trade with the Giants.

With all of the madness of the Winter Meetings, Mets beat reporter and WFAN.com Mets blogger Rich Coutino joined me for an epic email discussion to talk about the Mets’ early offseason moves and the impacts of the series of deals they made on Tuesday night at the Winter Meetings in Dallas.

Keefe: I told Sweeny Murti on Monday (in an epic email discussion for Friday on WFAN.com) that I made sure I called my dad to thank him for being a Yankees fan and for raising me as a Yankees fan following the latest Mets debacle with Jose Reyes signing with the Miami Marlins (typing Miami Marlins is going to take some getting used to).

All season Mets fans were dragged along like a gullible group chasing a $20 bill in a parking lot that’s attached to a fishing line. They figured that the Mets refusal to turn Reyes into a few pieces for the future meant that they would be re-signing their franchise shortstop, who they originally signed in 1999. Now Mets fan are left with nothing, and while watching Mets fans agonize over the state of their team never gets old and being obnoxious to my friends who are Mets fan, even this is a little much.

Back in May I wrote about Yankees fans being fortunate that the Steinbrenners are the owners of the Yankees and not the Wilpons, and on Monday you wrote about Sandy Alderson doing the best job he can under this Mets ownership. But now, just two months removed from another disastrous season in Queens, the Mets are likely headed for another one in 2012 with the other four teams in the NL East in a much better position than them.

So what is going through the minds of Mets fans right now and those that cover the team?

Coutinho: I honestly thought once they did not trade Reyes at the deadline, they would make every effort to sign him. Sure, letting the market set itself was a risky strategy, but when you really think about it, the market on Reyes for whatever reason did come down from the “Carl Crawford” plateau. And then came the Marlins, who I honestly never thought would top $100 million, but they did. I do believe the Mets had a dollar amount in mind and it was five years for $85 million. The reps for Reyes always felt he would get a $100-million deal and given the fact the Marlins and Mets were the only suitors, I give them so much credit for getting this done for Jose.

Reyes is a superstar worthy of this money when you consider guys like Adrian Gonzalez, Jayson Werth, Carl Crawford and Matt Kemp have all signed bigger contracts recently. I think the thing that upsets Mets fans is that they had Reyes, Carlos Beltran and Francisco Rodriguez and now they don’t have any of them, even though most had accepted the fact they would lose two of the three. They understood K-Rod was a money issue and Beltran did return them a big-time prospect in Zach Wheeler. But losing all three is too much to swallow and that is why Mets fans are so upset.

Keefe: Sandy Alderson addressed the media and gave the public an idea as to what kind of financial situation the Mets are dealing with as they move forward. And even after all of this, Bud Selig is still allowing the Wilpons to own the Mets and to continue to destroy the franchise. Now the Mets will be playing in the country’s biggest market with a small market payroll.

I guess the next most logical thing to ask is what do the Mets do with David Wright? The Mets are sort of in this weird place where they need to be in complete rebuilding mode, but they really aren’t. They still have Wright and Jason Bay and Johan Santana on the payroll, and there isn’t much they can do regarding the latter two right now.

Wright is probably the last thing keeping Mets fans from completely losing hope and from the Mets ticket offices from being overtaken and the front office being held hostage. But is there really any point for the Mets to hold on to Wright any longer? The Mets aren’t exactly in a position to win right now and don’t look like they will be in one within the next few years. The Phillies are already a contender, as are the Braves and the Nationals and Marlins are on the rise.

Should the Mets just say, “Eff it!” and move Wright and rebuild this entire thing?

Coutinho: I would say no. Coming off an injury season, David Wright is severely undervalued now and will not get the prospects back that he would in the middle of the season when teams are in desperate need and David has produced his customary numbers.

The other reason is the Mets are in a tough situation, but not a hopeless on. Look at the Diamondbacks, who lost 90 games in 2010 and won their division with over 90 wins in 2011, and they did it with the same cast of offensive players (maybe less if you consider Stephen Drew was hurt most of the year). How did they do it then? They got Ian Kennedy and Daniel Hudson to pitch at an All-Star level and had a great closer in J.J. Putz, who was finally healthy for them. Nobody and I mean nobody picked them to win the NL West. It is a good blueprint for the Mets to follow but certain things must happen.

Johan Santana must return to the form of being a pitcher with a 3.00 ERA or lower and they must have a second pitcher to give them a solid 3.30 ERA season. R.A. Dickey did that last year while Jonathan Niese, though inconsistent, has the stuff to be that type of pitcher. Clearly, there are a lot of ifs and quite frankly, they’ll also need a reliable closer. My feeling is you start the season hoping this could work and if it doesn’t, you look at Plan B and around the break you try to pry prospects from teams and in the process, shed more payroll.

There’s also the additional wild card team in 2012, which can put additional teams in the playoff picture. That could mean the Mets might have more available trading partners at midseason than they normally would. In regards to the Mets’ payroll, $100 million, to me, is the minimum it should be at in this market. The chances are it will be a tad lower than that on Opening Day, but a good start could entice the Mets to add on if the situation presents itself. I try to compare the Mets’ situation to other companies that might have lost $70 million last year. Do you think any of them would add employees or would they cut payroll? Now it is fair to concede with a cut payroll, but expectations should be lowered as well in regards to both wins on the field and ticket sales.

The Mets are in a tough spot here and granted much of it is self-inflicted, but Sandy is playing this correctly. He can’t just do things because the fans demand it with the way things change in a hurry in this sport. Who ever thought that Texas would be in back-to-back World Series in a league that houses the Yankees, Red Sox and Rays? Who thought a Cardinals team with a payroll less than $100 million could win it all when most left them for dead in late August? Sandy can’t afford to make a move now because he lost Reyes. He must resist the temptation to overreact to the reaction.

Keefe: I’m sure Mets fans appreciate your optimism.

If Santana does come back and pitch the way he has in the past and you couple that with R.A. Dickey’s 2011 season, then you have something working at the top of the rotation. No, it won’t be easy for the Mets to score runs, but if they can build a stable rotation and one that has a true ace then maybe, just maybe they can hang around during the summer.

At the same time, I’m hoping Johan comes back and is healthy and dominant and the Mets decide that paying him to play for a non-contender isn’t worth it, and the Yankees take him off their hands and relieve them of some payroll. A healthy Santana behind CC Sabathia? Yes, please. But I know that many people are skeptical about what kind of pitcher Santana will be when he returns to the mound, and if he will be anywhere near the pitcher he once was with the stuff he once had, or if he will become the left-handed version of Freddy Garcia.

There were reports on Tuesday that the Mets were part of Mark Buehrle’s list of the final five teams he would sign with, and then there were reports and direct quotes from Sandy Alderson that disputed those claims with Alderson saying that the Mets would not be in contention to sign Buehrle. So maybe this is just Buehrle’s agent (who Alderson didn’t know the name of) using the New York market to drive up the price for his client?

This is good news for me since I’m still holding out hope that he joins the Yankees rotation, but it’s not good news for Mets fans, who might have been expecting the ownership to treat them to one solid free agent this offseason.

Last season the Mets rotation was pretty healthy with five starters making 26-plus starts, and Dillon Gee and Jonathon Niese combining for 53 starts and proving to be viable young arms for the Mets’ future. Aside from Gee, Niese, Dickey, Pelfrey and Capuano, the Mets only used four other starters (Chris Young, D.J. Carrasco, Chris Schwinden and Miguel Batista).

And in the bullpen, after trading Francisco Rodriguez, the Mets juggled the closer role between Bobby Parnell and Jason Isringhausen in an effort to transition Parnell into the role as the closer of the future, but it didn’t really go according to plan.

What do you think the Mets rotation will look like heading into spring training and the season? Who is the next Chris Young or Chris Capuano for them in a low-risk, high-reward arm? And how do they rebuild the back end of the bullpen?

Coutinho: From what I understand, the Mets inquired about Buehrle, but the price was too high. I think he is an absolute horse and would be a great NL pitcher and no worse than a No. 2. If I were the Marlins I’d go with him over C.J. Wilson or Albert Pujols if I could only sign one more free agent. As far as the Mets rotation, I see Santana, Niese, Dickey, Gee, and possibly Pelfrey as No. 5 starter if they tender him.

As far as a reach with starters, why not Rich Harden? I love his stuff and with last year’s high ERA he might come cheap. His K/IP ratio was over one per inning, so I think he might be a low-cost, high-reward type of pitcher the Mets could snare.

I do think the Mets will get a closer, but do not think it will be one of the big three left (K-Rod, Francisco Cordero or Ryan Madson). I think their hope is to stockpile guys relievers like Octavio Dotel, Jon Rauch, Frank Francisco, Chad Qualls or Todd Coffey and develop the back end that way. I thought Jonathan Broxton would have been a good gamble for them, but I agree the Royals overpaid for him at $4 million.

Aside from the relievers they obtain, I think Tim Brydak, Manny Acosta, Pedro Beato, and Bobby Parnell are in the mix as well. Beato and Parnell were spotty at best, but both have live arms and are worth another look. Brydak was solid vs. lefties all year and Acosta turned heads in the season’s final two months by finally realizing you have to throw a breaking pitch even if you possess a plus fastball. (Take note, Bobby Parnell).

The thing I noticed in second half last year after K-Rod left, is that the Mets crashed and burned in so many games from the seventh inning on, and you know what I say about a bullpen, Neil: a good one can cover up weaknesses, whether they be light hitting or starters not going deep in games. On the other hand, a bad bullpen can make every blemish an eyesore and I firmly believe in today’s game, the bullpen can make or break a team no matter how much hitting you possess.

The Cardinals refurbished their bullpen at the deadline, and so did Texas and not coincidentally, both teams made it to the Fall Classic.

Keefe: The Mets were busy on Tuesday night. First they signed Jon Rauch to a two-year deal worth $12 million and they followed that up by trading Angel Pagan to the Giants for Andres Torres and Ramon Ramirez. Then they went on and signed Frank Francisco to a two-year deal. And just after hours after you gave me your take on what the Mets’ game plan should be to bolster their pitching staff, your theory on the Mets’ plan to rebuild the bullpen by stockpiling arms couldn’t have ended up being more accurate.

I think the trade of Pagan was a great move since both teams traded guys off down years in hopes of rejuvenating them with a chance of scenery. I don’t think Pagan is actually as good as he was two years ago, and I’m a big fan of Torres’ even if he’s getting up there in age. I haven’t seen as much of Ramon Ramirez since his departure from Boston and the AL East a couple years ago, but I know he has the ability to be dominant in the back of the bullpen and was for long stretches of time in the best division in baseball. Jon Rauch and Frank Francisco also have the ability to be lights out, but they both have had their fair share of struggles the last few years.

Coutinho: I think the Mets got better on Tuesday night. Don’t get me wrong I would rather have Jose Reyes, but Sandy Alderson really improved the team with these deals.

Rauch and Francisco have ability and pitching late innings in the AL East does test your ability. The trade of Pagan was necessary because there were rumblings in the Mets clubhouse that Pagan’s attitude changed dramatically in the second half of the year after the exodus of his mentor, Carlos Beltran. Torres is not the athletic specimen that Pagan is, but he is a much better defensive centerfielder and a great off-the-field guy. He has speed and could bat leadoff although the Mets may have other ideas about the leadoff spot.

The crown jewel though could be Ramirez who has a nasty slider and good heat. More importantly, the Mets have rebuilt their bullpen with three guys that could be penciled into the seventh, eighth and ninth innings. Add in Tim Brydak as a lefty specialist and Manny Acosta, who impressed in August and September, and you might have something here. It also affords the Mets the luxury of swing-and-miss guys in the ‘pen and I think not having a solid ‘pen cost the Mets at least 10 games in 2011.

Clearly, there is still a lot of work to do, but Sandy Alderson gets rave reviews from me on a night in which he both reshaped and strengthened the Mets.

Tag: C.J. Wilson

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