Brett Favre – Keefe To The City

Nov 6, 2014

NFL Week 10 Picks

I’m thinking of going to a comedy show in New York on Sunday night, which would force me to miss the end of the Giants-Seahawks game. So I have to make the decision between moving

I’m thinking of going to a comedy show in New York on Sunday night, which would force me to miss the end of the Giants-Seahawks game. So I have to make the decision between moving from the couch on a football Sunday, going out, paying for a round-trip cab, admission to the show and food and drinks or staying on the couch and finish watching a three-hour free comedy show live from Seattle on FOX. As much of a joke the Giants-Seahawks game will likely and how many laughs it should produce for non-Giants fans, I think it’s a better idea to get out out of the apartment just as the Seahawks backups finish off the Giants as the Giants finally start to throw the ball for the majority of their plays once the game is out of reach.

Speaking of comedy, this week on his Monday Morning Podcast, Bill Burr said, “If you bet on football this year, you’re out of your mind. At this point you should just cut your losses and go home.” I wish I could, Bill. I wish I could go. But there are still eight weeks of the regular season to pick and then the playoffs.

(Home team in caps)

CINCINNATI -6.5 over Cleveland
The Bengals have done their transformation to become the AFC Saints in that the Paul Brown Stadium Bengals are a much different team than the Outside the Paul Brown Stadium Bengals are. The Bengals are 4-0-1 at home this year and 1-2 on the road after going 8-0 at home and 3-5 on the road last year. This season, the Bengals’ average home score is a 30.8-20.2 win and their average road score is a 28.7-13.3 loss. That’s good news if the Bengals can win the NFC North and play their first playoff game at home. The problem is the Bengals is five or their last seven games are on the road.

Miami +3 over DETROIT
It’s never a good idea to buy into the Miami Dolphins. You would be better off buying into a start-up newspaper in 2014 than the Dolphins given their history of strong starts and late-season collapses, but the problem with this game is the Lions are the Dolphins of the NFC. So I can either buy into the start-up newspaper in 2014 (Dolphins) or pay for an AOL account in 2014 (Lions). That’s why I’m taking the points.

Buffalo +2.5 over KANSAS CITY
If the Giants aren’t going to do anything this year, which they’re not, then I might as well be an honorary Bills fan for the rest of the season. I can’t get behind the Browns because them winning means Johnny Manziel’s career will only be delayed longer and I can’t get behind the Chiefs because of Alex Smith even though it would make me happy to know that the city of Philadelphia and Eagles fans would have to watch Andy Reid win the Super Bowl. Aside from the Bills, those are the other long-suffering franchises that look like postseason contenders that I don’t have any direct hatred against, but how could I not pull for the Bills and Kyle “David Grohl” Orton to go on a run with the Bills?

San Francisco +5 over NEW ORLEANS
The Saints are going to win this game. That’s a fact. How do I know this? Let me say it again:

The Saints’ last home loss with Sean Payton as head coach came in Week 17 in 2010 when they had nothing to play for. Including the playoffs, with Payton as head coach, the Saints have won all of their home games since that loss and here are their margins of victory in those games: 19, 6, 11, 25, 18, 3, 32, 18, 21, 24, 6, 17, 28, 29, 14, 25, 11, 55, 7 and 17.

BALTIMORE -10 over Tennessee
I have done everything I can to continuously pick against the Ravens, but there are times when you have to see the difference between right and wrong and smart and dumb. And taking Tennessee, even to cover a double-digit spread, is dumb though I’m sure every sharp in Vegas would disagree given the state of the NFL.

Pittsburgh -6.5 over NEW YORK JETS
The Jets have lost eight straight games. They have fans wasting money on planes to fly over practice and promote John Idzik’s firing while other fans are wasting their money to use a billboard outside MetLife to promote the same cause. Michael Vick, who clearly wants no part of actually playing football anymore and would rather just hang out on the sidelines and collect a paycheck (who can blame him?) is starting over the most recent Jets franchise quarterback. And their head coach continues to say he sees good things each week even though the team’s only win came in Week 1 over the still-winless Raiders.

The Steelers were 3-3 and coming off a 21-point loss to the Browns before winning three straight games and saving their season and putting themselves in prime position to return to the playoffs. They have scored 94 points in the last two weeks against two contenders in the Colts and Ravens and Ben Roethlisberger threw for 862 yards and 12 touchdowns without an interception in those two games. And they have possibly the best receiver in the league in Antonio Brown ready to face the worst secondary imaginable.

So what does all of this mean? It means that this game will likely be decided by a field goal because the NFL is insane. But it also means it’s no time to be backing the Jets and asking them to cover anything less than a touchdown.

Tampa Bay +2 over ATLANTA
Somewhere someone who isn’t a Buccaneers fan or a Falcons fan is going to bet on this game and watch it in its entirety. Think about that.

Denver -12.5 over OAKLAND
I don’t want to say Peyton Manning is a fraud, so I will let other people say it for me. But the best regular-season quarterback in history went into Gillette Stadium and got embarrassed once again last week. Sure, he put up 429 yards and got his numbers in before it was over, but his team lost by 22 points in a game that could be the difference in a trip to the Super Bowl and an AFC Championship Game loss because of home-field advantage. I picked the Broncos last week because I didn’t want to back the Patriots even though I envisioned the game that played out playing out because it has so many times Peyton has gone to New England. Let’s hope that performance doesn’t mean a Super Bowl appearance for the Patriots because then I’m done with Peyton.

ARIZONA -7.5 over St. Louis
The Arizona Cardinals are the best team in football.

The Arizona Cardinals are the best team in football?

I wrote that sentence out with both a period and a question mark because after I wrote it the first time, I read it back to myself like Ron Burgundy reading a line on the prompter incorrectly because of a misplaced question mark at the end of it. Are the Cardinals the best team in football? Their record says they are at 7-1, leading the NFC West that was supposed to be for Seattle or San Francisco to win. I’m happy for the Cardinals after missing the playoffs last year despite a 10-win season while the Packers played a first-round home game at 8-7-1 for winning the NFC North, but I’m not sure a team with Carson Palmer as their quarterback can ever be considered the best team in the league at any time even if their record says they are.

New York Giants +9.5 over SEATTLE
The Giants’ offense currently consists of a first-round pick wide receiver who has played four career games, two wide receivers who can’t catch, a tight end who played quarterback in college, a tight end who was out of football in 2013, a rookie running back and a running back who thought his NFL career was over a little over a year ago. The absolute worst place for a team with that offensive personnel to go is Seattle, so if you’re thinking of sitting back at 4:25 on Sunday and watching the Giants, you might want to make other plans for around 5:00. I think I’m going to.

GREEN BAY -7.5 over Chicago
The last time the Bears won in Green Bay was Oct. 7, 2007 in Week 5. It was Brian Griese playing for a benched Rex Grossman against Brett Favre. The Bears have cost me picks and actual money so many times this season that I will be pulling for a Packers blowout on Sunday night as if it were the Giants playing in the Super Bowl.

Carolina +6 over PHILADELPHIA
The Panthers aren’t good. But you’re asking me to pick Mark Sanchez to win a game he starts by a touchdown.

Last Week: 4-9-0
Season: 63-70-1

NFL Week 8 Picks

The Giants won their first game of the season and I had my first over-.500 week of the picks season as my picks season continues to go as the Giants’ season goes.

A win is a win. That’s what I have been telling myself and my girlfriend since the Giants’ 27-7 “win” over her Vikings on Monday Night Football. I say “win” because I’m not sure beating Josh Freeman and his 33 incompletions should really be considered a win. But a win is a win and the Giants desperately needed one (one as is one win this season) and if they have

I’m not sure how to act in a lost season that goes missing in September with three months still to be played. I’m used to watching the season unravel in November or December with a second-half collapse ruining what once looked to be a division title and possible first-round bye. I know how to deal with that type of season. I don’t know how to deal with this.

All Monday’s win did was take the Giants out of the Jadeveon Clowney sweepstakes and give Antrel Rolle another week of “winning out” proclamations to spew on sports radio. It didn’t give any more realistic hope to an epic comeback and possible playoff berth and a win this weekend in Philadelphia won’t do that either. Win this weekend and then beat the Raiders and then the Packers and then the Cowboys and we’ll talk.

***

As the Giants season goes, my picks season goes. And with the Giants’ first win of the year on Monday Night Football, I enjoyed my first over-.500 week of the season at 9-6. Thank you, thank you.But with a 9-6 week comes expectations and if my picks season is going to really, truly mirror the Giants season then expectations are the last thing I need just when it looks like I might be ready to turn around the first half debacle.

Week 8 … let’s go

(Home team in caps)

Carolina -7 over TAMPA BAY
If I only had to pick the Thursday games, I would be having a great year at 5-2. But aside from that …

Somewhere someone who isn’t a Panthers fan or a Buccaneers fan is going to bet on this game and watch it in its entirety. Think about that.

San Francisco -16.5 over JACKSONVILLE
After earning some respect in their loss to the Broncos and getting Vegas to lower their next line to just — at home against the chargers, Vegas isn’t willing to make things so easy for the Jaguars anymore. The Jaguars have now scored in single digits in four of seven games and have lost by an average of 31.7-10.9.

Dallas +3 over DETROIT
Let’s pretend for a second that the Giants could eventually have a chance at playing in the postseason. (Yes, I know how ridiculous that sounds.) Now if the Giants are going to get there, the Cowboys and Eagles would have to go into the tank and that means losing games like this one on the road in Detroit. But for as much as I despise the Cowboys and I greatly despise the Cowboys, this year feels like their year. Not “their year” in the sense that it’s “their year to win a championship.” No, no, no. I mean “their year” as in “their year to win the division and reach the postseason.” And with the Cowboys in 2013, that’s all their goal should really be.

New York Giants +5 over PHILADELPHIA
It shouldn’t matter if Michael Vick starts or Nick Foles or Nick Vick or Matt Barkley, the Giants should be able to keep this game close.

KANSAS CITY -7.5 over Cleveland
You never want to pick for the team whose quarterback situation is such a mess that they have Jeff Garcia saying he is willing to try out to be their quarterback if they are willing to let him, considering Garcia is 43 and last threw a pass in the NFL in 2008. I think I’ll take my chances with the undefeated 7-0 team against that team.

NEW ORLEANS -11.5 over Buffalo
My apologies to Thad Lewis who I greatly underestimated last week as he and the Bills went to Miami and upset the Dolphins. (OK, maybe it was more like the Dolphins offense and the Bills defense that were responsible for the upset, but Thad still gets the W for his resume.) The problem with trusting Thaddeus now is that he isn’t going to South Beach to face a Dolphins team that last won on Sept. 22. He’s going to the place where all quarterbacks (even great ones) and all opponents (even worthy ones) go to lose and lose big.

The Saints’ last home loss with Sean Payton as head coach came in Week 17 in 2010 when they had nothing to play for. Including the playoffs, the Saints have won their last 12 home games since that loss and here are their margins of victory going back from Week 4 in 2013 to Week 2 in 2011 with Payton as head coach: 21, 24, 6, 17, 28, 29, 14, 25, 11, 55, 7 and 17.

So what’s the best medicine for the Saints to get back in the win column after losing in Foxboro on an improbalby last-minute touchdown coming off their bye? How about the Bills in the Superdome?

Miami +7 over NEW ENGLAND
Playing in Foxboro against the Patriots isn’t what it used to be in terms of losing, but that has more to do with what the Patriots offense has become and not what their defense is. Sure, teams still have a hard time winning game at Gillette, but we’re not picking winners here and no one says the Dolphins are going to win, but covering a touchdown on the road against a division rival?

Aside from their 20-point blowout of the Buccaneers, who might very well be worse than the Jaguars, here are the margins of victory in the Patriots’ other six games: 2, 3, 7, 7, 3 and 3. (The Patriots went 4-2 in those six games.)

New York Jets +6.5 over CINCINNATI
The Giants are 1-6. The Jets are 4-3 and with a win and a Patriots loss, they will be tied atop the AFC East with the Patriots at 5-3. Back in 2010, I feared that the Jets might take over the New York football landscape after they went to back-to-back AFC Championship Games while the Giants missed out on the playoffs in both 2009 and 2010. But then the Jets lost to the Giants on Christmas Eve in 2011 and the Giants beat the Cowboys the following week for the division title and then ran the table in the playoffs and won the Super Bowl and the landscape never changed. It’s not going to change in 2013, but I don’t like there even being a possibility that it could.

Pittsburgh -3 over OAKLAND
There are very few teams I would trust picking the Steelers to cover three points on the road against. The Raiders happen to be one of them. And with the Steelers riding back-to-back wins, a win in Oakland and a 3-4 record will keep their postseason hopes alive with New England, Detroit, Baltimore, Miami, Cincinnati and Green Bay still on the schedule.

Washington +13 over DENVER
Do I trust the Redskins on the road with their defense against the Broncos offense? Of course not! But I think I have been trusting the Broncos a little too much lately and it’s time to realize that the Broncos defense just isn’t good and certainly isn’t a championship-caliber defense. And it seems like RGIII has put an end to his early-season sophomore slump.

ARIZONA -2 over Atlanta
I think Kurt Warner was the Cardinals quarterback the last time I picked the Cardinals. But after getting burned by Arizona seemingly every week since then, it’s time I turn my back on the Falcons. When I first looked at this line I couldn’t believe the Cardinals were giving points and it seemed like taking the Falcons was easy, actually too easy, and whenever you’re presented with a game like this and a line like this, you get the feeling that something is off. And oh yeah …

Somewhere someone who isn’t a Cardinals fan or a Falcons fan is going to bet on this game and watch it in its entirety. Think about that.

Green Bay -9.5 over MINNESOTA
Josh Freeman was historically bad on Monday Night Football after Leslie Frazier did the opposite of what any coach in any sport tries to do by putting their players in the best position to succeed. Frazier started Freeman and stuck with him despite the obvious lack of chemistry between the quarterback and his receivers. This week Frazier isn’t starting Freeman, but is instead going back to Christian Ponder, who got the Vikings off to an 0-3 start to the year. Ponder wasn’t good enough to start in Week 7 over a guy that had been a Viking for two weeks and had never taken a snap as Vikings quarterback, but now he’s good enough to start against the Packers? I know the first game everyone will be putting in their teasers this week.

Seattle -11.5 over ST. LOUIS
The Seahawks are trying to win the Super Bowl this year and the Rams reached out to Brett Favre about returning to the NFL to play quarterback for them.

Last week: 9-6-0
Season: 44-59-4

NFL Week 1 Picks

It’s Week 1 of the 2012 NFL season and that means it’s the first week of picks.

The other day I talked about seasonal depression. Let’s talk about real depression. Since Tuesday, the Yankees have lost their AL East lead completely then regained it the following night only to lose it again the next night and the Giants lost on Opening Night at home to the Cowboys. But I really shouldn’t worry about that since it’s not like the Giants have the hardest schedule in the entire NFL or anything. And oh yeah, the NHL still isn’t close to preventing a second lockout in eight years. I’m not really a Coldplay fan, but this seems like a good time to get into them.

Before Super Bowl XLVI I promised a lot of things and said a lot of things that sort of got thrown out the window in the heat of Wednesday night’s battle between the Giants and Cowboys. How badly did I fail to hold up my end of the bargain? Let’s ask Maury Povich.

“Neil, you said if the Giants win for the second time in four years and beat the Patriots again and beat Tom Brady and Bill Belichick again and beat all the Patriots fans you went to college with in Boston again and beat the city of Boston again, you won’t care if the Giants don’t make the playoffs for the next 20 years. The lie detector determined … that was a lie!”

“Neil, you said if the Giants win Super Bowl XLVI, you would never say a bad thing about Kevin Gilbride again. The lie detector determined … that was a lie!”

“Neil, you said if the Giants win Super Bowl XLVI that when it comes to the two-minute drill defense, you wouldn’t complain about the Giants’ inability to make a stop in the final minutes of either half anymore. The lie detector determined … that was a lie!”

“Neil, you said if the Giants win Super Bowl XLVI that if the receivers make numerous drops in a game, you said you would no longer complain about the excessive miscatches. The lie detector determined … that was a lie!”

There were a lot more things I said and promised, but I freaked out on Maury, gave the finger to the booing audience, threw a chair, ran behind the set and curled up in a corner and bawled my eyes out while Maury tried to console me with his expert counselor. That’s how bad things were on Wednesday night against the Cowboys.

We always hear about the “same old Jets,” but what about the “same old Giants?” Opening Night was the textbook example of what the Giants have put me through over the years, and while I understand anyone disgusted with me for being upset with a team that is coming off their second championship in four years, but at the same time if you’re not a Giants fan then you just don’t get it.

So I lied. We all do it. We all make promises to win a championship, but when that new season starts, all you want is another championship, and another and another and another. Look at Boston. In October 2004, people were willing to give up their life savings and their homes and their hair and their limbs and their children for a Red Sox World Series. They got it, but a year later those same people were devastated when the Red Sox were eliminated in the ALDS by the White Sox. If the Cubs win the 2013 World Series, their fans will want to win in 2014. And if the Jets win the Super Bowl this year, their fans will want to win it again next year. (Of course neither of those hypothetical situations will come true.) It’s the nature of the beast, and you can’t change it.

I want to apologize to Kevin Gilbride for granting him the empty promise of “Ladies and gentlemen!” immunity and I want to apologize for all of the promises I didn’t keep, but now that the new season has started and the Giants are 0-1, all I can think about is playoff football again (since there might not be playoff baseball for the Yankees) and I remember what it’s like to not have your team in the playoffs, and it sucks.

I’m still telling myself that if the Giants become the Jets this season and don’t make the playoffs, I will still have XLII and XLVI. But I know I’m just lying to myself, and there’s nothing wrong with that.

***

Last season, my NFL picks went about as well as the Bay of the Pigs. I started off hot, got warm, got lukewarm, got cold, got ice cold and then froze. I did manage to redeem myself in the postseason, but by then it was too late to salvage the year. However, I think my success was due to the Giants’ success, so I had less time to worry about the picks because I was focused on the Giants and writing about them on their second magical run.

Week 1 is my favorite week to pick games for. Why? Well, you get a clean slate (well, almost clean since I already lost the Giants game on Wednesday night) and because all you have to go off is what you have learned from the end of last season and the offseason. Once every team plays a game, everything you have taken in over the last seven months gets masked by how that team performed in Week 1 and it only gets worse as they play more and more games.

Week 1 … let’s go!

(Home team in caps)

NEW YORK GIANTS -4 over Dallas
I picked this one on Twitter on Wednesday. How about a mulligan? No? OK.

CHICAGO -10 over Indianapolis
I think there are three places that Andrew Luck didn’t want to begin his NFL career: the SuperDome, Lambeau Field and Soldier Field. Unfortunately for Luck, he will make his first career start in Chicago at Soldier Field against one of the best defenses in the game. I actually thought this line was low given the Bears’ success last season before Jay Cutler got hurt and given how bad the Colts were last year.

Here is how Peyton Manning’s rookie season started:

Week 1 vs. Miami: Loss, 1 TD, 3 INT
Week 2 at New England: Loss, 1 TD, 3 INT
Week 3 at New York Jets: Loss, 0 TD, 2 INT
Week 4 vs. New Orleans, Loss, 1 TD, 3 INT

Peyton started the year 0-4 with three touchdowns and 11 interceptions. He didn’t get his first win until Week 5 against the Chargers and would go just 2-14 that season. If things were that bad for Peyton Manning and the Colts in 1998, I don’t see how they will be that much better for Andrew Luck and the Colts in 2012.

Philadelphia -9.5 over CLEVELAND
You don’t know how bad I want to pick the Browns here, but I just can’t and Brandon Weeden is why. If the Eagles are as good as everyone thinks they are and the Browns are as bad as everyone thinks they are, this line could be 14 and I would still have to take the Eagles.

Buffalo +3 over NEW YORK JETS
On Friday, I did a podcast with my friend and crazy Jets fan Tim Duff. The optimism glowing from him over the phone was what I imagine it’s like talking to a Kansas City Royals fan on the eve of Opening Day. There’s just so much hope and so much promise and the new-car smell and feel of a clean season is very powerful. But I have a feeling Tim is going to be hungover on the train from MetLife back to the city on Sunday afternoon wondering why he even cares about the Jets.

NEW ORLEANS -7.5 over Washington
I watched maybe three minutes of preseason football. And because I’m not a college football guy, the only RG3 I have ever seen is on highlights. Last season, Eli Manning the eventual Super Bowl champions went into the SuperDome and got absolutely destroyed. So am I supposed to think that the absence of Sean Payton is going to be enough for an unknown rookie quarterback and a bad team to go in and play a tight game against the best home-field advantage in the league? No, I’m not.

New England -6 over TENNESSEE
I wonder how much money the Patriots have cost people picking them to cover since 2007. The Patriots continue to get incredible respect, and they have earned it, but if their defense is as bad as it was last year, this will be a pick I regret. On the other hand, I can’t talk myself into taking the Titans and watching the Patriots score touchdowns on their first three possessions, so I have to play it safe here.

Jacksonville +3.5 over MINNESOTA
The year after the Vikings lost to the Saints in the NFC Championship Game I was picking the Vikings every week to open the season. What did they do? They started 0-2 then they were 2-5 then 3-7 and finished 6-10. The 2010 Vikings destroyed me and I’m still not over it. The scars are deep enough that I’m taking Blaine Gabbert and the Jaguars on the road to open the season.

HOUSTON -13 over Miami
The only team the Browns have to worry about giving them a run for the worst record in the league is the Dolphins. Hard Knocks didn’t do the Jets any favors in the summer of 2010 when it came to making unnecessary headlines and this summer Hard Knocks didn’t do the Dolphins any favors by exposing just how atrocious they are going to be this season. Meanwhile Houston is a legitimate contender and the AFC South favorite. If the Yankees don’t make the playoffs and the Dolphins are once again the laughingstock of the NFL, we are going to need to make sure there is someone watching John Jastremski around the clock.

DETROIT -7.5 over St. Louis
It shouldn’t be as easy to win money as it was when you picked against the Rams last season, but it was.

KANSAS CITY +3 over Atlanta
This isn’t a popular pick since Matt Ryan wins the Battle of the Matts over Matt Cassel, but when you take the Falcons out of the Georgia Dome it’s like taking a fish out of the water.

San Francisco +5 over GREEN BAY
If there’s one game that has “REGRET” written over it in red pen and capital letters, it’s this one. Yes, I’m really taking Alex Smith in Green Bay on Opening Day. This feels so wrong. But at least I know what goes through Joe Girardi’s head when he starts Steve Pearce against left-handed pitchers.

Carolina -2.5 over TAMPA BAY
The Panthers have Cam Newton and Steve Smith and a good running game and a good defense. The Bucs have none of those things.

Seattle -3 over ARIZONA
An NFC West matchup! I always love these. I guess I have to take the Seahawks since they know who their starting quarterback is.

DENVER -2 over PITTSBURGH
Tim Tebow’s Broncos beat the Steelers in Denver in the playoffs. So why wouldn’t Peyton Manning’s Broncos have an easier time doing the same thing?

BALTIMORE -6.5 over Cincinnati
Everything points to this being too many points for a division matchup that isn’t the Patriots against the Dolphins.

OAKLAND -1 over San Diego
When I first saw this line, I couldn’t believe the Chargers weren’t favored because no one gets undeserved respect like the Chargers do. For a team that has done nothing to earn respect from Vegas over the last few seasons, picking against the Chargers has been a good way to earn some easy wins, and I’m not going to shy away from my love of picking against them now.

Season: 0-1-0

Tag: Brett Favre

NFL Week 10 Picks

NFL Week 8 Picks

NFL Week 1 Picks