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Tag: Brandon Weeden

Blogs • Giants

Oct 9, 2015

NFL Week 5 Picks

So far this season I have avoided the one week that could ruin or destroy a picks record for the year. I’ll need to avoid it again in Week 5 where the lines are the most challenging they have been yet.

Eli Manning

The Giants are good. They’re certainly better than their 2-2 record says they are (sorry, Bills Parcells). And if not for the still inconceivable decision making in Weeks 1 and 2, they would be 4-0 and sitting atop the NFC East with a two-game lead. Unfortunately, the Giants didn’t run out the clock on the Cowboys and didn’t try to put the Falcons away, and through 25 percent of the season, they’re tied with the Cowboys and Redskins at 2-2.

But that’s Giants football. No matter the year, the season, the players, the coaches or the front office, that’s Giants football and nothing will ever come easy. The should-have-been wins that turned into losses to the Cowboys and Falcons and the should-have-been-blowouts that turned into nerve-racking wins against the Redskins and Bills proved this team will never change. Never. All four games this season have been perfect depictions of the history of the New York Football Giants and somehow there are still 12 more to go. I don’t know where this season is going to take us, but I do know wherever it’s going, it’s going to need to be accompanied by alcohol.

I didn’t think my 13-3 pace from Week 3 would continue for the rest of the season, so I expected the kind of 7-7-1 Week 4 that occurred. So far this season I have avoided the one week that could ruin or destroy a picks record for the year. I’ll need to avoid it again in Week 5 where the lines are the most challenging they have been yet.

(Home team in caps)

HOUSTON -2 over Indianapolis
Andrew Luck missed his first career game on Sunday and now this week, on a short week, both Luck and Matt Hasselbeck are questionable for Thursday Night Football. The Texans have been bad, all three of their losses have been by at least a touchdown and they have a quarterback controversy that started in training camp and hasn’t been resolved 25 percent of the way through the season. If I knew that Luck was playing, or even Hasselbeck, I would take the Colts and feel somewhat confident in my pick despite not believing in the Colts at all. But here I am taking the team I promised myself I wouldn’t take again last week as the Falcons were scoring touchdown after touchdown after touchdown.

Jacksonville +3 over TAMPA BAY
Somewhere someone who isn’t a Jaguars fan or a Buccaneers fan is going to bet on this game and watch it in its entirety. Thank about that.

TENNESSEE +2.5 over Buffalo
How is it that the Bills are still living off their Week 1 rout of the Colts even with the Colts being outed as a fraud team? The Bills’ stock can’t be high because of what happened two weeks ago in Miami against what is now a 1-3 Dolphins team that fired their head coach this week. So the Bills are giving points on the road as a 2-2 team with their best two players (LeSean McCoy and Sammy Watkins) having missed last week and having not practiced since. The wheels are falling off a Rex Ryan team and I can’t help but think I have seen this story play out before.

BALTIMORE -6.5 over Cleveland
When the Ravens go on a run and reach the postseason to increase the chances of an 0-3 team reaching the postseason, we can only thank Josh Scobee for keeping the Ravens alive. Scobee missed two field goals in Week 4, which led Mike Tomlin to not trust him in overtime, and ultimately led to a Ravens game-winning field goal. Now Scobee is no longer a Steeler after missing two field goals in the Steelers’ Week 1 loss to the Patriots and two more against the Ravens. The Ravens’ season should be over, but it’s not, and now they play the Browns and 49ers back-to-back and will be 3-3 heading into Monday Night Football at Arizona in Week 7.

ATLANTA -7.5 over Washington
Last week I said, “I don’t really think the Falcons are good,” and then they went out and put up 48 on the Texans. Now putting up 48 on the Texans might not be as impressive as it would have been before the season started when people thought the Texans’ defense would be among the best in the league, but 48 is 48, and 4-0 is 4-0. Now that the Redskins are 2-2 and very much alive in the NFC East, I now need to spend time and energy rooting against them, and I won’t have to spend so much of either if the Falcons can take care of business at home once again.

KANSAS CITY -9 over Chicago
The Chiefs have lost three straight games and they have given up 105 points in those three games. Now they return home with their season on the line and the gift of the Bears coming to Arrowhead.

New Orleans +5 over PHILADELPHIA
Like the Ravens, the Saints’ winless season was saved in primetime with an 80-yard touchdown in overtime moments after they let Brandon Weeden march down the field and pick their defense apart the way Tony Romo did to the Giants on Sunday Night Football in Week 1.

GREEN BAY -9.5 over St. Louis
I was scared that I wasn’t doing enough financially to take advantage of the Packers’ early-season lines. Sure, the Packers haven’t blown out any team yet with wins of 8, 10, 10 and 14, but they have covered all four of their games so far, and I figured Vegas would start to increase Packers’ lines, especially home ones, enough that it would make people question whether or not they should take the Packers. They didn’t.

Seattle +3 over CINCINNATI
Even though the Bengals are 4-0 and even though their defense has held opponents to 24-or-less points in every game and even though the Seahawks could be 1-3 if the Monday Night Football officials new the rules of the sport they are officiating and even though Marshawn Lynch is questionable and even though Russell Wilson has a fumbling problem, I’m still taking the Seahawks here. Why? Because I made a promise to myself to stick to the “Just Say No to the B’s” campaign.

Arizona -3 over DETROIT
The Lions are 0-4, and if not for an incorrect call on Monday night, their season could have been saved. But their season is over. The Lions return home as a team that is on its way to making it impossible to know how to properly pick their Thanksgiving Day game and they’re returning home to face a Cardinals team that was embarrassed last week and will be looking to avenge a sloppy loss.

NEW ENGLAND -9.5 over Dallas
The Patriots off a bye week against a team without their quarterback and star wide receiver. That’s it. That’s all you need to know.

Denver -5 over OAKLAND
Since Peyton Manning went to the Broncos, the team has been about him and the offense, and in this day and age, that’s exactly what you want your team to be about: the quarterback and his receivers. But the 2015 Broncos are more about their defense than they are their offense, which is saying a lot about a team that has Manning (even at 39), Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders. The Broncos have allowed 69 points in four games this season and 14 of those points came off Manning passes that were intercepted and returned for touchdowns, so the Broncos’ defense has really allowed 55 points in four games. I don’t think the Raiders’ offense is ready for this matchup.

NEW YORK GIANTS -7 over San Francisco
The Giants don’t suck. That’s been a big difference in having to turn to football, and hockey, now that the Yankees’ season is over. The last two miserable Yankees seasons ended only to have me watch two bad Giants teams try to fill my sports void, but this year, my post-Yankees sports life has so far given me a Rangers’ opening-night win in Chicago over the Blackhawks and now that that needs to carry over into the weekend and the Giants’ second-to-last primetime game of the season.

Aside from their Week 1 win over the Vikings in which the Vikings looked like an unprepared and lost team, the 49ers have lost three straight and have been outscored 101-28 with just 10 points scored in their last two games combined. They are a bad team that keeps resting their potential star running back, hoping to save him for a rainy day that likely isn’t going to come this season. If the Giants are as good as the near 4-0 start they could have gotten off to, then this will be the fourth straight game the 49ers that will leave people wondering how a Colin Kaepernick-led team was on the doorstep of winning the Super Bowl and now they are … well, this.

SAN DIEGO -3.5 over Pittsburgh
Forever, I wrote about the Inside the Superdome Saints and the Outside the Superdome Saints. Well, those Saints don’t exist anymore. There’s just the Saints now and they’re not good not matter where they play. But the Chargers seem like they have taken over the responsibility of being a completely different team at home and on the road, and more specifically, in the Pacific Time Zone and outside the Pacific Time Zone.

Last week: 7-7-1
Season: 36-25-2

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Oct 4, 2012

NFL Week 5 Picks

It’s Week 5 of the NFL season and it’s time for things to turn around.

The same old Giants. That’s who the New York Football Giants are. A second Super Bowl in four years didn’t change who they were between Super Bowl XLVI and Week 1 against the Cowboys, so why would I think that back-to-back wins would change who they are before they played the Eagles? The Giants will let you down, build you back up, suck you back in and then pull the rug out of from underneath you and if two championships weren’t enough to change who they are then I just have to accept that things will never change.

I’m not sure what Eli Manning and Tom Coughlin and Kevin Gilbride were thinking when Eli threw a deep ball to Ramses Barden at the end of Sunday night’s game. It was almost as if they thought they were trailing by four instead of two and it was that play that led to a loss after they were bailed out by the refs to extend the game.

The Giants had a chance to steal a game in Philadelphia on Sunday night and they gave it away. Now they are 2-2 on the season, 0-2 in the division and have the only real easy winnable game left on their schedule this week in the Browns. A loss on Sunday would be as devastating as the loss against the Seahawks was last year before a series of improbable events led to the Giants winning the division at 9-7. If you believe in miracles happening in back-to-back seasons then you don’t consider Sunday a must-win game for the Giants. I’m not one of those people.

***

As for the picks, the NFL season is 24 percent over and I’m still in search of the elusive over-.500 week. That isn’t good. I have gone back to my roots and I’m stopping with the Thursday pick on Twitter and the rest of the picks on Friday. It’s time to shake things up and it’s Thursday for the picks going forward.

Week 5 … let’s go!

(Home team in caps)

Arizona -1.5 over ST. LOUIS
Any other year and this is the “Do I Really Have to Pick This Game of the Week?” But not in 2012 where te cardinals are undefeated and the rams are respectable. I got so used to just knowing that every NFC west game over the last few years was three point game an just take the points but not anymore. The NFC west is longer the worst division in football. That title now belongs to the AFC east

Atlanta -3 over WASHINGTON
The Falcons’ egg is coming. I can feel it. You can feel it. Everyone can feel it. I’m going to pick them one of these weeks when they lose and lose big and now it’s just a matter of correctly guessing when that inevitable week is going to come. It makes sense that it would come on the road against the Redskins, but I like it better to come next week at home against the Raiders leading into the bye week because why wouldn’t it come then?

Philadelphia +3.5 over PITTSBURGH
I feel like I’m picking between the same team here. I can either go with the Team That Lets You Down that is home or the Team That Lets You Down that is on the road. When there are points, take them.

Green Bay -7 over INDIANAPOLIS
If the game took place in Week 1 this line would be through the roof. The Packers are still dangerous despite what the first four weeks might suggest, and I’m not ready to give up on Aaron Rodgers’ covering ability yet.

NEW YORK GIANTS -8.5 over Cleveland
If the Giants can’t blow out Brandon Weeden and the winless Browns at home with their schedule then pack up the balls because this season isn’t going anywhere.

CINCINNATI -3.5 over Miami
The Bengals have been so good to me this year. I picked against them in Week 1 and I picked for them in Weeks 2, 3 and 4 and it’s all gone according to plan. I would feel like I’m stabbing them in the back if I pick the Dolphins to cover against them in Cincinnati. But at the same time, the Dolphins have destroyed me this season, so maybe I should finally give in and pick them? I know that WFAN’s John Jastremski will tell me how the 1-3 Dolphins could be 3-1 if two plays had gone their way and he’s right, but I just can’t do it because they’re still the Dolphins.

Baltimore -6.5 over KANSAS CITY
The 2012 Chiefs and I are done. We’re finished. I don’t even want my stuff back. Just don’t call me or text me. I want them out of my life. I’m not going to let them hurt me anymore. And it’s too bad too because I really like Romeo Crennel.

Seattle +3 over CAROLINA
This game was so close to being the “Do I Really Have to Pick This Game of the Week?” So effing close. The one thing holding it back is that the Seahawks may or may not be good (and probably aren’t good), but that decision hasn’t been finalized yet.

Chicago -6 over JACKSONVILLE
Chicago has been good to me and the Jaguars can’t change that.

MINNESOTA -5.5 over Tennessee
Tennessee Titans at Minnesota Vikings! You’re the “Do I Really Have to Pick This Game of the Week?” Congratulations!

Four weeks ago I never thought I would see the day when the 2012 Vikings would be giving anyone 5 1/2 points in a football game. Maybe 5 1/2 points in a PowerPoint presentation on how to set your franchise back at least a decade when you’re a field goal away from the Super Bowl, but not actual points in an actual game. But then again, four weeks ago I didn’t know the 2012 Titans existed.

Denver +7 over NEW ENGLAND
I interned for 890 ESPN Radio and the legendary Mike Felger in 2006-07. On Nov. 5, 2006 for the Patriots-Colts Sunday Night Football at Gillette Stadium in Week 9, I had to go sit outside in freezing weather as the ESPN Radio tent across from the stadium. The Patriots were 6-1 and the Colts were 7-0 and it was the height of the Tom Brady-Peyton Manning rivalry. People were insane for this game. The place was buzzing like I had never seen a regular season NFL game before and the scene hours before the game made it feel like a Super Bowl. It wasn’t buzzing because it was Patriots-Colts. It was buzzing because Peyton Manning was in town and Peyton vs. Brady will do that. Put these two guys on any teams and the atmosphere will be the same. It could be Patriots vs. Colts or Patriots vs. Broncos or Browns vs. Bills or Hoboken High School vs. North Bergen High School, it doesn’t matter as long as Brady and Manning are the quarterbacks. The Colts won 27-20 thanks to 326 yards and two touchdowns from Manning and four interceptions from Brady.

We haven’t had a Brady-Manning game since Nov. 21, 2010 in Week 11. It felt weird in 2008 when the Patriots played the Colts without Peyton and it felt weird in 2011 when they met again without Peyton.

This game on Sunday should be great. Well, really I just want it to be great because the Yankees are going to get the Sunday night slot and that means Giants at 1:00, this game at 4:25 and Yankees at 8:37. No, I’m not leaving the couch on Sunday.

Buffalo +10 over SAN FRANCISCO
What have the Bills done for me lately? Nothing really other than getting blown out by the Patriots, so I guess that has to count for something. In this league it’s risky to back a double-digit spread, but is it a good idea to take the Bills on the West Coast against maybe the best home team in football after being embarrassed by the Patriots last week? Of course not. But when have I ever been one for good ideas when it comes to NFL picks? But where has reason and logic gotten anyone in the 2012 NFL?

NEW ORLEANS -3.5 over San Diego
Drew Brees and the Saints have nothing left to play for at 0-4 except for his touchdown streak. Saints fans know that their season is over, so if they’re going to bring their “A” game again in 2012 it’s going to come on Sunday night against the Chargers for this record. It’s not like I needed a reason to pick against the Chargers, but this is one.

Houston -9 over NEW YORK JETS
Getting nine points at home on Monday night football isn’t a good look. Th Jets’ season is in turmoil even more so than it has been in any other year under Rex Ryan and everyone is starting to find out that maybe Mike Tannenbaum isn’t the “smart SOB” he called himself in Hard Knocks two years ago.

Last Week: 7-8-0
Season: 27-35-1

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Sep 21, 2012

NFL Week 3 Picks

It’s Week 3 of the NFL season and it’s time for more picks despite an embarrassing performance last week.

I always wonder how veteran players on teams that are mathematically eliminated from the postseason (like the Red Sox, Mets and Phillies) get up for games in September when Game 162 and the finish line and the six-month offseason are in sight. Why not just swing at every pitch and give away at-bats? Sure, there’s the whole “integrity of the game” idea when you’re facing teams in contention, but come on, how do Dustin Pedroia and David Wright not just want to get home and forget about 2012? The answer is they probably do, but they are just good at hiding it.

I bring up that idea because I’m not sure where to find the energy and motivation after Week 2 beat the crap out of me like the members of the Free World beating up Rabbit in 8 Mile. Last week I wrote about how I wasn’t expecting a spectacular Week 2, but just something serviceable to keep me afloat so that I could figure out the league without falling too far behind. So much for that plan. I’m keeping these picks short and sweet and right to the point because clearly logic and theories aren’t working out.

Week 3 … let’s go!

(Home team in caps)

NEW YORK GIANTS +3 over Carolina
Well, I finally hit a Wednesday/Thursday game. (This pick was made on Twitter on Thursday.)

St. Louis +7.5 over CHICAGO
I picked the Bears on Thursday Night Football against the Packers last week. How did the Bears reward me? Well, here’s Charles Woodson Jay Cutler to let you know how the game went.

“Heard some talk out of the Bears: Packers secondary not working coverage, bigger receivers … we heard about it. We understand that Jay is excited about his new weapons, but it’s the same-old Jay. We don’t need luck; Jay will throw us the ball.”

It’s going to be a while until I trust Jay Cutler again. Not that I ever really did anyway.

DALLAS -8 over Tampa Bay
I don’t think the Cowboys are as good as they were on Opening Night at MetLife. I also don’t think the Buccaneers are as bad as they were in blowing the game on Sunday at MetLife. I also don’t think the Buccaneers are good, and it’s the Cowboys’ home opener. That’s how I got to this pick.

San Francisco -7 over MINNESOTA
I’m going to re-write what I wrote about the 49ers last week just so I can see it on paper and let it settle in that I could really think this.

“It can’t be good that I think the best team in the NFL is the one whose quarterback is Alex Smith.”

Detroit -3.5 over TENNESSEE
The Titans have been outscored 72-32 in the first two weeks. How is this line only 3.5?

Cincinnati +3 over WASHINGTON
The Redskins were supposed to get blown out at the SuperDome in Week 1, but instead they “upset” the Saints. I say “upset” because aside from the line, it wasn’t much of an upset. Then the Redskins lost to the Rams, while the Saints lost to the Panthers who were just embarrassed at home by the Giants’ backup offense. The Redskins might not be as good as their Week 1 win suggests because the Saints might not be good at all. But it’s going to take Vegas and the public a few weeks to realize this and then the Redskins will be the Redskins again. (My friend Ray, a Redskins fan, is probably going to punch me in the face on Friday night when I see him for ripping the Redskins for a third straight week.)

New York Jets -2.5 over MIAMI
I don’t think blowing out Carson Palmer and the Raiders is really that much of an accomplishment for the Dolphins, but I guess any win for them in 2012 can be considered an accomplishment since they should be right there for the No. 1 pick in draft. Well, unless Brandon Weeden has something to say about it.

I picked against the Jets and they won by 20. I picked the Jets and they lost by 17. They have handed me two losses this season. I’m going with them here for what might be the last time in 2012.

Kansas City +8.5 over NEW ORLEANS
It’s very possible that we’re a week away from the Saints starting to be part of the “Do I Really Have to Pick This Game of the Week?”

Buffalo -3 over CLEVELAND
The “Do I Really Have To Pick This Game?” of the week. I do have to pick it? OK. Go Bills!

INDIANAPOLIS -3 over Jacksonville
Andrew Luck covered for me last week at home, so I have to go with the hot hand, right? That and I can’t convince myself to take Blaine Gabbert for a second time in three weeks even if he covered for me that first time.

ARIZONA +3.5 over Philadelphia
Am I really picking a starting quarterback who started the year backing up a quarterback from Fordham and who is playing against his former team that didn’t want him? Yes. Yes, I am.

Atlanta +3 over SAN DIEGO
These might be the two non-NFC East, non-Patriots, non-Jets teams that I hate the most. I went against everything I believe in by bacon Philip Rivers last week (and it worked), but that was a one-time deal.

Houston -2 over DENVER
For the first time this season I’m going to pick against Peyton Manning. It feels weird and I don’t want to, but the Texans have left me no choice with two convincing covers in the first two weeks. Sorry, Peyton. I hope we can still be friends.

Pittsburgh -4 over OAKLAND
The Raiders lost for me in Week 1. The Raiders lost for me in Week 2. I’m not about to let them lose for me in Week 3. Enough is enough.

BALTIMORE -3 over New England
This isn’t so much about me thinking Baltimore will win and cover as it is me wanting New England to lose. If the Patriots lose, they will be 1-2 and if you thought this Wes Welker nonsense was media overkill, wait until the AFC favorites lose back-to-back games this early in the season. I can’t wait to read The Boston Globe and the Boston Herald on Monday.

Green Bay -3.5 over SEATTLE
I wanted to take Seattle last week at home against Dallas, and I didn’t, and I lost. I want to take Seattle this week against Green Bay, but I’m not going to.

Last Week: 5-10-1
Season: 12-19-1

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Sep 13, 2012

NFL Week 2 Picks

It’s Week 2 of the NFL season and the picks only get harder from here.

Can you have a must-win game in Week 2? Yes, you can because the Giants do.

After this week’s game against the Buccaneers, the Giants play the Panthers on Thursday Night Football, and after that, it’s all downhill schedule-wise except for Week 5 against Brandon Weeden’s Browns. After Week 3, they will have five NFC East games left, seven games against 2011 playoff team and then of course the Browns in Week 5. (For some reason I have this feeling that Weeden won’t be the Browns’ quarterback by Week 5.)

I have gotten over last week’s Opening Night disaster though the Yankees are trying their best to keep me down and I have moved on to the Buccaneers, who are one of only three “easy” games on the Giants’ schedule now that it appears the Redskins are for real for the first time since 2007.

Last week, I warned about what happens for the Week 2 lines and how perception shifts and changes. It was only a week ago we thought the Giants would finally be an all-passing team, the Redskins still sucked, the Bills might finish a season with a playoff game, the Jets would be a joke and the Packers would be out to avenge their 15-1 season and early playoff exit. All of these things might still be true and could still happen, but all we have is one game and one week of play to go off of, as does Vegas.

I took plenty of tests in my day where I sat down, started reading through the questions and didn’t know the answer to a single one. I’m sure we all had this happen at one point. (Well, I hope I’m not the only one or I will feel terrible.) So what did I do? I started writing, made things wordy, made things up and put together a test full of 100-percent BS. I knew I wasn’t going to get an A on it, but I wasn’t looking for an A either. I was looking to salvage my grade and weather the storm and just survive the class and not fail. In Week 2, I’m not looking to go 15-1 or even 12-4. I’m trying to stay afloat until I can make more sense out of the 2012 season and how good or bad each team is.

Week 2 … let’s go!

(Home team in caps)

Chicago +5.5 over GREEN BAY
There are probably a lot of people that want their “Packers in the Super Bowl” predictions back right about now. Last year’s 15-1 and defending champion team doesn’t look like it’s back for 2012. The offensive line has holes and the defense let Alex Smith complete 20 of his 26 pass attempts and throw for two touchdowns and Frank Gore run for 112 yards on just 16 carries. And I don’t think we even need to get into the Packers’ running game and Cedric Benson.

Not only do the Packers not look like the team that went 15-1 and then lost their first playoff game, but they have now lost back-to-back games at Lambeau Field with the loss to the 49ers and the playoff loss to the Giants. Before the playoff loss in January, their last home loss was on Oct. 17, 2010 against the Dolphins in Week 6. Their last home loss before that? Nov. 1, 2009 against the Vikings in Week 8.

There’s a good chance the Packers make me pay for picking the Bears, but until they show me something in 2012, I can’t be giving away 5 1/2 points to a division rival.

NEW YORK GIANTS -7.5 over Tampa Bay
If the Giants can’t blow the Bucs out at home after a Week 1 embarrassment then I’m going to need a hobby this fall and winter if there’s no NHL.

NEW ENGLAND -14 over Arizona
If the Patriots were favored by 21 points in this one I would still take.

The last time the cardinals went to Foxboro, I took the Cardinals. They lost 47-7 to Matt Cassel’ Patriots. Sure, that was nearly four years ago and neither team is even close to being the same, but that loss scarred me when it comes to trusting the Cardinals away from home and like the Packers, the Patriots don’t lose at home (unless they’re playing the Giants.)

INDIANAPOLIS -1.5 over Minnesota
The “Do I Have To Pick This Game of the Week?” Last week we had two of these games with Seattle-Arizona and Carolina-Tampa Bay. Next week we have Buffalo-Cleveland and Jacksonville-Indianapolis. (It’s weird that because of one Redskins game I’m not putting the Washington-St. Louis game in this paragraph.)

New Orleans -3 over CAROLINA
Last year the difference between the Saints at home and the Saints on the road was like the difference between Tara Reid in 1999 and Tara Reid in 2009. But the Saints no longer seem to be the hot blonde in American Pie and are now that girl that was in American Pie, but had a liposculpting procedure that went wrong. Even though the Saints were embarrassed at home by the Redskins, the Panthers scored 10 points against the Buccaneers and I can’t erase that from my memory.

Kansas City +3 over BUFFALO
There’s a good chance that if this game were played in three more weeks it would be a “Do I Really Have to Pick This Game of the Week?” But because perception is that the Chiefs and Bills are supposed to be playoff bubble teams, this game isn’t ready to be classified as a joke yet. Then again, these teams allowed a combined 88 points last week, so maybe we’re already there.

Baltimore +2 over PHILADELPHIA
When I thought of Joe Flacco between the AFC Championship Game and Week 1, I thought of an old vet who just wasn’t good and that was because of ridiculous facial hair last season. I still knew he was a 27-year-old who had been to two AFC Championship Games, but that facial hair really screwed with my head. All offseason I kept hearing about how he was going to have a big year and could receive “elite” status and I laughed because of his appearance and not his abilities. Then on Monday Night Football he looks like 2008-2010 Joe Flacco, throws for 299 yards and two touchdowns.

Oh yeah, the Eagles beat the Browns by one point and Michael Vick threw four picks. Let me trust him right away!

Oakland -2.5 over MIAMI
The Raiders’ blocked punts kept me from an 8-8 record in Week 1 and for some stupid reason I’m going to pick them again. Well, maybe the reason isn’t that stupid … they’re playing the Dolphins.

CINCINNATI -7 over Cleveland
I could talk about how the Bengals are a 2011 playoff team coming off an embarrassing loss to the Ravens on Monday Night Football or how Andy Dalton will be out for revenge. But I’ll just talk about the only things that matters…

Brandon Weeden: 12-for-35, 118 yards, 0 TD, 4 INT, 5.1 QB Rating.

Houston -7.5 over JACKSONVILLE
I hate when people say, “The man who needs no introduction…” but then they give one anyway. Well, this pick needs no explanation, so I’m not going to give one.

Dallas -3 over SEATTLE
I don’t think the Cowboys are as good as they looked on Opening Night against the Giants, but I also know that there are passengers on the Russell Wilson hype train that are willing to jump off while it’s still moving.

Washington -3 over ST. LOUIS
I can already see a letdown game from the Redskins here and I’m fully prepared for it.

New York Jets +6 over PITTSBURGH
Is it ever a good idea to believe in the Jets, especially after a 20-point win that is most likely not indicative of what type of team they are at all? Of course not. Am I letting one game after an offseason full of chaos make me think differently? Of course I am.

SAN DIEGO -6 over Tennessee
I hate picking the Chargers ever, but I don’t really have a choice here.

SAN FRANCISCO -7 over Detroit
It can’t be good that I think the best team in the NFL is the one whose quarterback is Alex Smith.

Denver +3 over ATLANTA
Peyton Manning’s second week back and his second primetime game in as many weeks. After this game, Peyton still has another Monday Night game (Week 6 against San Diego), a Sunday Night game (Week 8 against the Saints) and a Thursday Night game (Week 14 against the Raiders). I will be taking him in all of them.

Last Week: 7-9-0
Season: 7-9-0

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Sep 7, 2012

NFL Week 1 Picks

It’s Week 1 of the 2012 NFL season and that means it’s the first week of picks.

The other day I talked about seasonal depression. Let’s talk about real depression. Since Tuesday, the Yankees have lost their AL East lead completely then regained it the following night only to lose it again the next night and the Giants lost on Opening Night at home to the Cowboys. But I really shouldn’t worry about that since it’s not like the Giants have the hardest schedule in the entire NFL or anything. And oh yeah, the NHL still isn’t close to preventing a second lockout in eight years. I’m not really a Coldplay fan, but this seems like a good time to get into them.

Before Super Bowl XLVI I promised a lot of things and said a lot of things that sort of got thrown out the window in the heat of Wednesday night’s battle between the Giants and Cowboys. How badly did I fail to hold up my end of the bargain? Let’s ask Maury Povich.

“Neil, you said if the Giants win for the second time in four years and beat the Patriots again and beat Tom Brady and Bill Belichick again and beat all the Patriots fans you went to college with in Boston again and beat the city of Boston again, you won’t care if the Giants don’t make the playoffs for the next 20 years. The lie detector determined … that was a lie!”

“Neil, you said if the Giants win Super Bowl XLVI, you would never say a bad thing about Kevin Gilbride again. The lie detector determined … that was a lie!”

“Neil, you said if the Giants win Super Bowl XLVI that when it comes to the two-minute drill defense, you wouldn’t complain about the Giants’ inability to make a stop in the final minutes of either half anymore. The lie detector determined … that was a lie!”

“Neil, you said if the Giants win Super Bowl XLVI that if the receivers make numerous drops in a game, you said you would no longer complain about the excessive miscatches. The lie detector determined … that was a lie!”

There were a lot more things I said and promised, but I freaked out on Maury, gave the finger to the booing audience, threw a chair, ran behind the set and curled up in a corner and bawled my eyes out while Maury tried to console me with his expert counselor. That’s how bad things were on Wednesday night against the Cowboys.

We always hear about the “same old Jets,” but what about the “same old Giants?” Opening Night was the textbook example of what the Giants have put me through over the years, and while I understand anyone disgusted with me for being upset with a team that is coming off their second championship in four years, but at the same time if you’re not a Giants fan then you just don’t get it.

So I lied. We all do it. We all make promises to win a championship, but when that new season starts, all you want is another championship, and another and another and another. Look at Boston. In October 2004, people were willing to give up their life savings and their homes and their hair and their limbs and their children for a Red Sox World Series. They got it, but a year later those same people were devastated when the Red Sox were eliminated in the ALDS by the White Sox. If the Cubs win the 2013 World Series, their fans will want to win in 2014. And if the Jets win the Super Bowl this year, their fans will want to win it again next year. (Of course neither of those hypothetical situations will come true.) It’s the nature of the beast, and you can’t change it.

I want to apologize to Kevin Gilbride for granting him the empty promise of “Ladies and gentlemen!” immunity and I want to apologize for all of the promises I didn’t keep, but now that the new season has started and the Giants are 0-1, all I can think about is playoff football again (since there might not be playoff baseball for the Yankees) and I remember what it’s like to not have your team in the playoffs, and it sucks.

I’m still telling myself that if the Giants become the Jets this season and don’t make the playoffs, I will still have XLII and XLVI. But I know I’m just lying to myself, and there’s nothing wrong with that.

***

Last season, my NFL picks went about as well as the Bay of the Pigs. I started off hot, got warm, got lukewarm, got cold, got ice cold and then froze. I did manage to redeem myself in the postseason, but by then it was too late to salvage the year. However, I think my success was due to the Giants’ success, so I had less time to worry about the picks because I was focused on the Giants and writing about them on their second magical run.

Week 1 is my favorite week to pick games for. Why? Well, you get a clean slate (well, almost clean since I already lost the Giants game on Wednesday night) and because all you have to go off is what you have learned from the end of last season and the offseason. Once every team plays a game, everything you have taken in over the last seven months gets masked by how that team performed in Week 1 and it only gets worse as they play more and more games.

Week 1 … let’s go!

(Home team in caps)

NEW YORK GIANTS -4 over Dallas
I picked this one on Twitter on Wednesday. How about a mulligan? No? OK.

CHICAGO -10 over Indianapolis
I think there are three places that Andrew Luck didn’t want to begin his NFL career: the SuperDome, Lambeau Field and Soldier Field. Unfortunately for Luck, he will make his first career start in Chicago at Soldier Field against one of the best defenses in the game. I actually thought this line was low given the Bears’ success last season before Jay Cutler got hurt and given how bad the Colts were last year.

Here is how Peyton Manning’s rookie season started:

Week 1 vs. Miami: Loss, 1 TD, 3 INT
Week 2 at New England: Loss, 1 TD, 3 INT
Week 3 at New York Jets: Loss, 0 TD, 2 INT
Week 4 vs. New Orleans, Loss, 1 TD, 3 INT

Peyton started the year 0-4 with three touchdowns and 11 interceptions. He didn’t get his first win until Week 5 against the Chargers and would go just 2-14 that season. If things were that bad for Peyton Manning and the Colts in 1998, I don’t see how they will be that much better for Andrew Luck and the Colts in 2012.

Philadelphia -9.5 over CLEVELAND
You don’t know how bad I want to pick the Browns here, but I just can’t and Brandon Weeden is why. If the Eagles are as good as everyone thinks they are and the Browns are as bad as everyone thinks they are, this line could be 14 and I would still have to take the Eagles.

Buffalo +3 over NEW YORK JETS
On Friday, I did a podcast with my friend and crazy Jets fan Tim Duff. The optimism glowing from him over the phone was what I imagine it’s like talking to a Kansas City Royals fan on the eve of Opening Day. There’s just so much hope and so much promise and the new-car smell and feel of a clean season is very powerful. But I have a feeling Tim is going to be hungover on the train from MetLife back to the city on Sunday afternoon wondering why he even cares about the Jets.

NEW ORLEANS -7.5 over Washington
I watched maybe three minutes of preseason football. And because I’m not a college football guy, the only RG3 I have ever seen is on highlights. Last season, Eli Manning the eventual Super Bowl champions went into the SuperDome and got absolutely destroyed. So am I supposed to think that the absence of Sean Payton is going to be enough for an unknown rookie quarterback and a bad team to go in and play a tight game against the best home-field advantage in the league? No, I’m not.

New England -6 over TENNESSEE
I wonder how much money the Patriots have cost people picking them to cover since 2007. The Patriots continue to get incredible respect, and they have earned it, but if their defense is as bad as it was last year, this will be a pick I regret. On the other hand, I can’t talk myself into taking the Titans and watching the Patriots score touchdowns on their first three possessions, so I have to play it safe here.

Jacksonville +3.5 over MINNESOTA
The year after the Vikings lost to the Saints in the NFC Championship Game I was picking the Vikings every week to open the season. What did they do? They started 0-2 then they were 2-5 then 3-7 and finished 6-10. The 2010 Vikings destroyed me and I’m still not over it. The scars are deep enough that I’m taking Blaine Gabbert and the Jaguars on the road to open the season.

HOUSTON -13 over Miami
The only team the Browns have to worry about giving them a run for the worst record in the league is the Dolphins. Hard Knocks didn’t do the Jets any favors in the summer of 2010 when it came to making unnecessary headlines and this summer Hard Knocks didn’t do the Dolphins any favors by exposing just how atrocious they are going to be this season. Meanwhile Houston is a legitimate contender and the AFC South favorite. If the Yankees don’t make the playoffs and the Dolphins are once again the laughingstock of the NFL, we are going to need to make sure there is someone watching John Jastremski around the clock.

DETROIT -7.5 over St. Louis
It shouldn’t be as easy to win money as it was when you picked against the Rams last season, but it was.

KANSAS CITY +3 over Atlanta
This isn’t a popular pick since Matt Ryan wins the Battle of the Matts over Matt Cassel, but when you take the Falcons out of the Georgia Dome it’s like taking a fish out of the water.

San Francisco +5 over GREEN BAY
If there’s one game that has “REGRET” written over it in red pen and capital letters, it’s this one. Yes, I’m really taking Alex Smith in Green Bay on Opening Day. This feels so wrong. But at least I know what goes through Joe Girardi’s head when he starts Steve Pearce against left-handed pitchers.

Carolina -2.5 over TAMPA BAY
The Panthers have Cam Newton and Steve Smith and a good running game and a good defense. The Bucs have none of those things.

Seattle -3 over ARIZONA
An NFC West matchup! I always love these. I guess I have to take the Seahawks since they know who their starting quarterback is.

DENVER -2 over PITTSBURGH
Tim Tebow’s Broncos beat the Steelers in Denver in the playoffs. So why wouldn’t Peyton Manning’s Broncos have an easier time doing the same thing?

BALTIMORE -6.5 over Cincinnati
Everything points to this being too many points for a division matchup that isn’t the Patriots against the Dolphins.

OAKLAND -1 over San Diego
When I first saw this line, I couldn’t believe the Chargers weren’t favored because no one gets undeserved respect like the Chargers do. For a team that has done nothing to earn respect from Vegas over the last few seasons, picking against the Chargers has been a good way to earn some easy wins, and I’m not going to shy away from my love of picking against them now.

Season: 0-1-0

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