fbpx

Tag: Andy Reid

Blogs • Giants • NFL

Oct 10, 2013

NFL Week 6 Picks

I finally broke up with the Giants after their loss to the Eagles. But then I took them back just in time for their game against the Bears.

Breaking up with the Giants is hard to do. I deleted their number, unfriended them on Facebook, put all the memories they gave me in a box that I then labeled “JOKE” and have even avoided using the word “giant” in any context, choosing to go with “huge,” “enormous” and “mammoth” among others. But guess what? I let them back in my life! I know, I know! I’m an idiot and at midnight on Thursday night when they’re 0-6 and Eli Manning, Tom Coughlin and Justin Tuck are making excuses like a sophomore in high school whose English midterm is late again (no, that wasn’t me…) you can all tell me “I told you so.” But this morning, with the thought of being still in the division thanks to the Cowboys, it was the equivalent of seeing a few late-night texts from the Giants or seeing a request that “New York Giants wants to be your friend” waiting for me on Facebook and I couldn’t help but give them what is now their third chance this season. I know I’m stupid, but just shut up for a minute and let me explain.

The difference this time is I’m fully prepared for the Giants to get beat up by the Bears and run out of Soldier Field like a drunk Packers fan wearing a foam cheesehead with his entire body painted green screaming “Bears suck!” during a Bears-Packers game. I’m not going into this game thinking the Giants are going to win or that they even have a real chance to win. I’m going into the game hoping that they have a Lloyd Christmas-Mary Swanson-like small chance or even smaller to stay in the game until the fourth quarter and then maybe Eli Manning will find his missing fourth-quarter magic or maybe Jay Cutler will hand the Giants a win the way he has handed so many other teams wins in his career. You’re still not sold? Neither am I really.

***

Apparently as the Giants season goes, my picks go. Week 5 was another train wreck that proved that logic and reasoning is pointless when it comes to the 2013 NFL. On top of it all, anything you have seen or learned or figured out is worthless at the end of each week and completely irrelevant in picking the following week. It’s almost as if the movie 50 First Dates has become me making my NFL picks. And for as bad as that movie was, my picks have been worse.

Week 6 … let’s go!

(Home team in caps)

New York Giants +7.5 over CHICAGO
This is the last time I will be picking the Giants. The absolute last time. This is it. It’s really it.

KANSAS CITY -8 over Oakland
Picking an Andy Reid-led team with Alex Smith as the starting quarterback (even if they are undefeated) this many times is sure to backfire at some point. But the Chiefs have won four of their five games by at least nine points and that’s good enough for me to pick against the Raiders on the road.

Philadelphia -1.5 over TAMPA BAY
It doesn’t matter if Michael Vick starts or Nick Foles starts or Nick Vick (the combination of the two that we saw against the Giants) starts against the Buccaneers. Any of those three options is better than Mike Glennon, who will be making his second career start following Josh Freeman’s release and the circus Greg Schiano created down in Tampa Bay. And if Glennon for some reason can’t play or is removed from the game, you know who his backup is? Dan Orlovsky, that’s who. The future is bright in Tampa Bay.

BALTIMORE +3 over Green Bay
I originally had Green Bay -3 in this game and because I switched it Green Bay is 100 percent going to cover. I have been down on the Ravens through five weeks, but their 26-23 win in Miami last week has made me a believer for at least Week 6 in the Ravens. And I don’t really trust the Packers away from home.

MINNESOTA -2.5 over Carolina
Need a good laugh? Here’s what I said about the Panthers last week:

I know Bill Parcells said, “You are what your record says you are,” and the Panthers are 1-2, but they are good.

Done laughing?

The Panthers repaid my praise for them by getting embarrassed by the Cardinals. (The Cardinals!) A 22-6 loss in a game that featured seven combined turnovers (Carolina had four and Arizona had three), including three picks for both Cam Newton and Carson Palmer.

Meanwhile the Vikings are coming off their bye and their first and season-saving win against the Steelers in London.

HOUSTON -7.5 over St. Louis
The Rams did manage to beat the Jaguars by two touchdowns to cover their 11.5-point spread, but the Jaguars were in the game for far too long and did lead for enough time that it made me think the Jaguars wouldn’t finish the season 0-16 and made me realize just how bad the 2008 Lions were to finish that season 0-16.

NEW YORK JETS -2.5 over Pittsburgh
I expected the J-E-T-S to get blown out of the Georgia Dome on Monday Night Football and instead they put together a 2011 Giants-esque game-winning drive to improve to 3-2 on the season. The Giants are 0-5 on the year, the Yankees’ season ended 11 days ago and in the Rangers’ most recent game they were run out of San Jose in a 9-2 loss. Maybe me picking the Jets this week will restore some order in the New York sports world.

Cincinnati -7.5 over BUFFALO
Last week someone named Jeff Tuel took over for an injured E.J. Manuel in the Bills’ 37-24 home loss to the Browns (who also lost their starter Brian Hoyer to a torn ACL and had to replace him with former start Brandon Weeden) on Thursday Night Football. (How great has Thursday Night Football for 17 weeks worked out?) How bad was Tuel? Bad enough that the Bills have signed someone named Thad Lewis off their practice squad to start over Tuel this week. Bills head coach Doug Marrone said, “Thad gives us the best chance to win,” but he’s wrong. He’s not wrong that Lewis is better than Tuel because he might be, though that’s not saying much. He’s wrong that the Bills have a chance to win this game. They don’t. Now we just need Lewis to be bad enough that the Bengals can cover.

SEATTLE -13.5 over Tennessee
Ryan Fitzpatrick finally gets a chance to start for the Titans and he gets the then-5-0 Chiefs (now 6-0) and the 4-1 Seahawks (soon to be 5-1). Sometimes things aren’t fair for Harvard graduates who get $59 million contracts with $24 million of guaranteed money.

DENVER -27 over Jacksonville
At no point would I feel nervous about taking the Broncos in this game. The Broncos beat the defending Super Bowl champions by 22 points in Week 1 and beat the Eagles by 32 points in Week 4. You don’t think they can beat the winless Jaguars by four touchdowns? The Rams managed to beat the Jaguars by two touchdowns last week.

SAN FRANCISCO -11.5 over Arizona
The Cardinals are on a mission to destroy my picks as best they can this season and so far they are succeeding. I can’t help that I want to pick against Carson Palmer every possible chance I get. Is that so wrong?

Since the 49ers were embarrassed in Seattle and Indianapolis in back-to-back weeks in Weeks 2 and 3, they are 2-0 and have outscored their opponents (St. Louis and Houston) 69-14. The NFC favorite that was supposed to go back to the Super Bowl this season is back after their two-week hiatus and now they need to put an end to the pesky, pick-destroying Cardinals.

New Orleans +1.5 over NEW ENGLAND
The Saints proved my whole theory about them being a different team outside the Superdome wrong with a win on the road at Soldier Field. But maybe that theory was only good for Saints teams of the past? Maybe the 2013 Saints are capable of winning road games against worthy opponents? Their two-point win over the Buccaneers said they weren’t, but now their eight-point win over the Bears says they are.

The difference in New Orleans is with Rob Ryan’s defense, which hasn’t allowed more than 18 points in a game this season (17, 14, 7, 17 and 18). In the past the Saints weren’t worried about giving up points knowing they could outscore any team in the league, especially at home, but now the Saints (at least through five games) appear to be a well-balanced team and that’s bad news for the rest of the NFC.

Washington +6.5 over DALLAS
I was nervous that the Cowboys were going to stop the 2013 Broncos train in the final minutes on Sunday, but Tony Romo put to rest my fears with a Tony Romo game-ending interception to keep the Giants mathematically involved in the NFC East despite having no wins. Now the Redskins are coming to the Big D with a chance to take over the division lead with a win and an Eagles loss. Everyone keeps talking about how the NFC East will be won by an 8-8 team or possibly even a 7-9 team. If it’s possible I’m pulling for a 6-10 team to come out of the East. The scary thing is the Giants would have to play .545 football the rest of the way and go 6-5 just to finish 6-10 at this point. Has anyone told Antrel Rolle this?

Indianapolis -2.5 over SAN DIEGO
I keep picking against the Colts and they keep making me pay. Thankfully, I jumped off the Chargers undefeated covering streak in time for their 10-point loss to the Raiders last week.

Last week: 5-9-0
Season: 29-44-4

Read More

Blogs • Email Exchanges • Giants

Oct 4, 2013

Giants-Eagles Is Must-Win at MetLife

The Giants face a must-win game against the Eagles at MetLife in Week 5 and that means an email exchange with Brandon Gowton of Bleeding Green Nation.

Well, we’re finally here. We’re finally at the point where the Giants are playing a must-win game. Sure, I have been loosely tossing around that title for the past few weeks, but this is it. This is the real deal. Beat the Eagles and keep the season alive or lose, go to 0-5 and play three months of meaningless football.

With the Eagles in town and possibly facing a must-win situation of their own, I did an email exchange with Brandon Gowton of Bleeding Green Nation to talk about the perception of Chip Kelly after four games, the emotions of Andy Reid’s return and seeing him in red and if either Nick Foles or Matt Barkley are the quarterback of the future.

Keefe: It’s been a while since a Giants-Eagles game had as much meaning as this one, even if this one means so much for all the wrong reasons. With the Giants at 0-4 and the Eagles at 1-3, both teams are still actually alive thanks to a down year for the NFC East with the 2-2 Cowboys currently the division leader.

The Giants, as I’m sure you know, have been an atrocity. They lead the league in every category you don’t want to lead the league in and since trailing 10-9 at halftime in Week 2 against the Broncos, they have been outscored 100-21.

The Eagles, on the other hand, opened the season with a bang against the Redskins and it looked like Chip Kelly would be an instant success story in the league. Instead they followed it up by losing to the Chargers at home, letting Andy Reid’s Chiefs dominate in his homecoming and getting blown out of Denver by the Broncos, which isn’t really all that bad since everyone is getting blown out by the Broncos. So over the last three weeks, the Eagles have been right there with the Giants.

After Week 1 I was still confident in the Giants because they had a chance to win a game on the road against a division opponent with two minutes to go despite turning the ball over six times. And I’m sure you were overly confident after the Eagles picked apart the Redskins and looked like they might be able to run the score up on the entire NFC.

Before we get to the former head coach, let’s start with the current head coach. What were your thoughts on Kelly and how have they changed after his hiring, after the Week 1 win and after the three straight losses?

Gowton: My feelings on the Chip Kelly hire haven’t changed much since his hire. I’m excited about his brand of football that he’s brought to Philadeplhia, and I’m aware that it will take some time before everything fully blossoms. The Eagles are an historical offensive pace in terms of yards. That’s something to be excited about once (if) the Birds figure out how to translate those yards into more points.

Keefe: And how about the old head coach?

Andy Reid was the head coach of the Eagles for 14 years, which in head coaching years is the equivalent of 56 years. From 1999-2012 he led the Eagles and led them to a 130-93-1 record, but was never able to win the Big One for them and everyone will always cite that when they talk about his time in Philadelphia.

Change is hard as a fan especially when it involves a fixture for your team. I went through it with Joe Torre and Jorge Posada and am about to go through it with Mariano Rivera and a second time with Andy Pettitte.

Did you think it was time for a change and time for Reid to go? How weird was it to see him on the opposite sideline in Week 3 coaching the Chiefs?

Gowton: It was definitely time for Andy Reid to go. He’s the greatest Eagles coach of all time to this date. The amount of success he generated in Philadelphia was mightily impressive. These things are great in remembrance, but the bottom line is the Eagles were an underperforming team that needed improvement. Chip Kelly was the perfect hire to replace the old guard. This organization needed a new energy and a new direction.

It was and still is weird to see Reid wearing red. It will always be that way. But it was the best move for him as well, and I wish him well in Kansas City.

Keefe: Michael Vick has played 16 games in a season in his career once (2006), and let’s be honest, he probably won’t play 16 games this season with the way he plays at the age of 33 if the last time he did it was seven years ago.

Vick has played pretty well so far under Kelly, so it’s not like he’s in danger of losing his job. Well, unless the Eagles season continues to go south. And if it does what happens then?

The Eagles have Nick Foles and Matt Barkley as backups with Foles having played in seven games last year after being drafted in 2012 and Barkley being a rookie, whose draft stock plummeted after he decided to stay for another year at USC.

If the Eagles aren’t going where they expect to go this season or Vick is unable to play a complete season, is it automatic that Foles would take over? Who do you like better between Foles and Barkley and which of the two is the quarterback of the future?

Gowton: Call me crazy, but I actually think Vick stands a decent chance of playing all 16 games. Or maybe he misses one or two at most. He’s done a better job of protecting himself than I’ve seen in recent years. He makes the effort to get down or run out of bounds before taking that extra hit.

Chip Kelly was brought to Philadelphia to win football games. It sounds simple and obvious, but it needs to be said. With that in mind, he’s going to play the guy who gives him the best chance to win. As long as he feels that guy is Vick, he will be the starter. Nick Foles will only be playing at quarterback if Vick is hurt.

I like Foles more than Barkley at this point. Barkley clearly looked like a rookie in preseason and training camp. He needs time to develop. I’m not sure if either of them are the future, though. They certainly have the chance to be, but it won’t be handed to them at all. If they truly aspire to be the future starter, they need to clearly outplay their competition and win the job.

Keefe: This game on Sunday is the Giants season. Up until now, their games have been called “must-win,” but this is the real deal. They’re not coming back from 0-5 (I mean the odds are strongly against them to even come back from 0-4.) If they can’t beat a reeling Eagles team that is slumping just as bad as they are at home at MetLife with the season on the line then at least I will know I can focus my attention to the Rangers and hockey season and not to letting the Giants steal three-plus hours of my Sundays.

Some people believe that in situations like this the more desperate team wins, but if that was true then the Giants wouldn’t have as many second-half collapses as they do under Tom Coughlin. And it’s not like the Giants are even a heavy favorite as the more desperate team in this game given the Eagles’ current state.

And given the way the Giants have been losing games, which is every way imaginable, I said on Monday if the Eagles are planning a “Miracle at the Meadowlands Part II” this Sunday then I wish someone would tell me now, so I can find something else to do.

What do you expect to happen on Sunday?

Gowton: I’ll start off by saying this game isn’t a freebie for Philadelphia. It’s the NFL – Any Given Sunday. With that said, the Giants have looked really bad in all phases: offense, defense, special teams. The Eagles know they have a chance to take the division lead with a win over the Giants (and a Dallas loss to Denver). Beating the Giants would mean the Eagles are 2-3, but more importantly they would be 2-0 in the NFC and the NFC East. That record is significant when it comes to the playoff picture. The three losses are merely AFC losses.Sunday could be an ugly game, but Philly will find a way to get the job done. The offense is too much of a threat for New York, and while the Eagles defense is bad, they can benefit from some likely Giants turnovers. Eagles 33, Giants 20

Read More

Blogs • Giants • Giants Thoughts

Oct 1, 2013

Giants-Chiefs Week 4 Thoughts: A 12-Game Season

The Giants were embarrassed again and after an 0-4 start to their season they need to put the first quarter of the season behind them and focus on the remaining 12 games.

I didn’t think things could get worse after the six-turnover Opening Night performance. I was wrong. And I didn’t think they could get worse than losing by 18 despite being down 10-9 at halftime. I was wrong again. And then I didn’t think things could get worse than losing 38-0 and producing 150 yards of total offense. I was wrong about that too. Things have gotten progressively worse since the “Disaster in Dallas” and I’m not sure what’s left after getting embarrassed and run out of Kansas City by Alex Smith, Andy Reid and the Chiefs. Are the Eagles planning a “Miracle at the Meadowlands Part II” for this Sunday? If so, I wish someone would tell me now, so I can find something else to do like watch Knocked Up or Funny People or Five-Year Engagement.

The same day the Yankees season officially ended after 182 days and 162 games, the Giants season ended after 21 days and four games. Sure, the Giants are technically still alive in a division where the Cowboys of all teams are in first place at 2-2. And if there’s any team incapable of holding a division lead in the NFL, it’s the Cowboys.

But why would anyone think the Giants are going to suddenly figure it out? And by “it” I mean everything as in every facet of the game. Because right now there isn’t one thing the Giants are doing well. Well, unless we’re talking about throwing interceptions, losing fumbles, taking untimely and game-changing penalties and missing field goals because they are doing all of those things better than any team in the league.

Going to Kansas City in Week 4 with the Chiefs flying as high as they have in forever and the Giants at an all-time low in the Tom Coughlin era and maybe the lowest of low in franchise history was a recipe for disaster. It was a game the Giants were set up to lose after what had happened in the first three weeks for them and for the Chiefs. But even as 5-point underdogs, the Giants didn’t show up and were worked over the same way they were the previous two weeks and everything Carl Banks said about the team to Joe Benigno and Evan Roberts on WFAN last week held true again.

I’m not going to talk negatively about Tom Coughlin, question his decision making or call into question his job status. It’s not for fear of having Justin Tuck punch me in the face, but rather because I don’t think this debacle is because of Coughlin, even if he is the man in charge. Coughlin’s not the one who has thrown nine interceptions in four games and he’s not on the offensive line failing to hold up his man and he’s not on the defensive line failing to get to the quarterback. He’s the man on the sidelines, who is watching his highly-talented team underachieve and not play to their abilities and live up to their expectations. But Coughlin does get to call the shots during the game and he made a bad call on Sunday that changed the game.

In the third quarter with the Giants facing a third-and-17 at the Giants’ 14, Eli Manning hit Victor Cruz for 17 yards. A 17-yard pass in a third-and-17 situation. What’s that mean? First down, Giants. Right? Wrong. Andy Reid, whose history of poor challenges, poor use of the clock and bad in-game management helped end his tenure in Philadelphia, challenged the ruling on the field of a first down and the spot of the ball, a call that’s rarely and I mean RARELY ever overturned. But because it’s New York Giants football and because things are going as bad for the 2013 Giants as they did for Mischa Barton’s acting career after she left and ruined The O.C., Reid won the challenge and it became a fourth-and-1 for the Giants on their own 30.

Tom Coughlin had a decision to make: Go for it on fourth-and-1 from the Giants’ 30 and risk turning the ball over on downs in a 10-7 game or punt it away and rely on the defense to make another stop. He went with his second choice and Steve Weatherford, who has been part of the problem and not part of the solution like just about everyone on the team this season, punted 59 yards to Dexter McCluster and McCluster “DeSean Jackson’d” the punt 89 yards for a touchdown and a 17-7 lead. Game over.

Cruz didn’t agree with Coughlin’s decision by saying, “I thought we should have gone for it on that fourth down. It’s coach’s call at the end of the day. … We had the momentum. I felt it was a yard, not even a yard, half a yard, we’ve got to take a risk at some point and make something happen.” And I agree with Cruz. The Giants had to make something happen and they went with the safe play even if it was the supposed right play given their field position, but at 0-3 and on the road and a quarter away from being 0-4, the Giants had to do something to change the momentum of that game and trying to gain not even a full yard for a first down would have done that instead. Instead they changed the momentum for the Chiefs.

The 0-4 start is alarming because it’s 0-4, but it’s heightened because of how last season ended and the bad taste it left in everyone’s mouths. Usually we’re used to see a stretch like this in the second part of the season or near the end of the season as the Giants erase their division titles hopes and playoff chances. Never before during the Tom Coughlin era have we seen something like this where the patented second-half collapse takes place in the first half or the first four weeks.

An 0-4 start looks a lot worse than a 6-2 team becoming 6-6, which is more Giants-like. But it leaves open the thought that maybe the Giants are getting their collapse out of the way now. No, that doesn’t mean I think the Giants are going to go 12-0 and run the table like Antrel Rolle said he “believes” the Giants can. But they don’t need to this season in this division where a winless record only has them two games out with 75 percent of the season left. And while Rolle’s prediction of the Giants winning out was just a little bold, he did redeem himself by saying, “This is just a new beginning, a 12-game season for us.”

The 12-game season begins with two games in the next 10 days. It’s hard to believe in the Giants, but that’s when they are at their best.

Read More

Blogs • Giants • NFL

Sep 12, 2013

NFL Week 2 Picks

The Giants had the “Disaster in Dallas” on Sunday night with a six-turnover loss and I just had “The Disaster” in Week 1 with my picks.

Can you have a must-win game in Week 2? Yes, you can because the Giants do.

(I opened my 2012 NFL Week 2 Picks with that same question. I’m hoping I won’t have to use it in 2014.)

OK, maybe it’s not a “must-win game” because the Giants could bounce back from an 0-2 record even if they have to go on the road to Carolina and Kansas City in Weeks 3 and 4. But maybe I’m just saying it’s not a must-win game because the Giants have a very good chance of losing to the Broncos (and Vegas believes they will) and if they do then technically the season would be over if they lose a must-win game. So let’s not classify this game as anything (since I’m too scared to) and how about the Giants just win an important home game?

Since the “Disaster in Dallas,” the Giants have signed Brandon Jacobs, who was last with the team for the 2011 Super Bowl season before performing and talking his way out of town. And the Giants signed Jacobs because David Wilson destroyed the season opener and all Wilson’s done since that game is gotten into Twitter fights with upset Giants fans and angry fantasy team owners, which is exactly what you want your 22-year-old No. 1 running back doing in the days following him being benched.

But if the Giants had the “Disaster in Dallas” then I’m going to have to also name my Week 1 Picks, which actually went worse than the Giants’ six-turnover performance against the Cowboys. So I’m calling the Week 1 Picks just “The Disaster” because that’s what it was. A 3-12-1 week to start the season (I actually went 7-8-1 in my picks pool, so I’m not sure how I managed that much of a difference) is embarrassing. But unlike CC Sabathia, when I say I’m going to try to figure things out and be better, I really am. Even if like CC, I put my season in an early hole and it might take a while to get back to respectability and over .500, I’m going to get back on track. No fake accountability here.

Week 2 … let’s go!

(Home team in caps)

New York Jets +11.5 over NEW ENGLAND
Last week I let Mike Hurley tell me that the Patriots blowing out the Bills was “a guarantee.” “A guarantee” he said! Everyone knows how guarantees go when it comes to NFL picks. So I went along with Hurley and his Patriots needed a last-second field goal to put away the Bills.

This week I’m going the way I wanted to go lat week which is against the Patriots because I don’t think they’re that good (there not) and their best receiver is Julian Edelman (yes, that Julian Edelman) and because my friend Scott sent me a 717-word email with the subject “Why you should bet the Pats even at -13.” (To be fair, Scott is a Patriots fan and would probably bet them even at -42.)

The Jets won’t be able to score because not only are they the Jets, but Geno Smith is their quarterback and they had trouble scoring against Tampa Bay at home. So that means I’m reeling on the Jets defense (which means I’m relying on Rex Ryan) and Tom Brady to not be able to score at will. Wait. Why am I picking the Jets again?

PHILADELPHIA -8 over San Diego
I don’t know if I buy the Chip Kelly offense hype. I don’t want to because that doesn’t mean good things for the Giants. But I’m going to buy it this week with the Chargers coming across the country for a 1:05 game after losing to the Texans in San Diego in the late edition of Monday Night Football.

BALTIMORE -7 over Cleveland
The defending champions were embarrassed in Denver to the point that their season and offseason and future have been called into question since last Thursday night. What better way to turn the negativity around than to have Brandon Weeden and the Browns come to town? The answer is none. There isn’t a better way to get your season on track than to face Weeden and the Browns at home.

HOUSTON -9.5 over Tennessee
I’m not a fan of taking the Texans with a line this high, but I’m also not a fan of needing Jake Locker to cover a game for me. And when in doubt, pick against Jake Locker.

Miami +3 over INDIANAPOLIS
Last week I said, “Because I initially picked the Dolphins to cover here and then switch my pick to the Browns like a ninth-grade U.S. History Scantron test, I know the Browns are going to lose and their offseason hype bandwagon is going to stall.”

So I’m going to give the Dolphins another chance because I screwed them over in Week 1 (and in turn they screwed me over).

Carolina -3 over BUFFALO
The Bills surprised everyone when they nearly upset the Patriots in Week 1. The problem is the Bills and their fans are likely proud of their effort against the Patriots and feel as though their loss on a last-second field goal was sort of a victory. That’s why they’re the Bills. And that’s why I will pick against them.

ATLANTA -7 over St. Louis
All of these seven-plus lines this week are making me think this could be a make-or-break week given my record from Week 1, and it probably will be because I keep picking the home team and favorite to cover in them. It’s no different here with the Falcons returning home where they are just like the Saints when it comes to home-field advantage.

GREEN BAY -7.5 over Washington
The Packers lost a revenge game and are coming home where it’s nearly impossible to win unless you’re the Giants and it’s the playoffs and they’re playing a Washington defense that was embarrassed by Chip Kelly’s college football and an offense led by a rusty second-year quarterback coming off knee surgery. I’m going to bank on the Packers, who haven’t lost back-to-back games in three years coming out with a purpose and helping my picks and my rooting interest in the NFC East in this one.

Dallas +3 over KANSAS CITY
I’m not going to sit and here tell you the Giants should have beaten the Cowboys even though they lost 36-31 despite making six turnovers. But I am here to tell you that I don’t think the combination of Andy Reid and Alex Smith is going to do much against legitimate teams even if Reid knows the NFC East better than any opposing head coach in the league.

Minnesota +6.5 over CHICAGO
It would be much easier to pick against the Vikings if my girlfriend wasn’t a Vikings fan and if they had just missed the playoffs last year and I didn’t keep thinking they were actually a “playoff” team because really Adrian Peterson was a playoff team and the Vikings were just the same old Vikings.

New Orleans -4 over TAMPA BAY
Every once in a while there is a line that comes out that makes you think “I need to jump all over this before they realize they entered it wrong.” This is one of those games. But it’s always these games that turn out to be the nail-biter. And because of that and because the Saints outside of the Superdome are not the same team as they are in it, it won’t surprise me if Drew Brees needs to go down the field with under two minutes and no timeouts to win, but not cover.

Detroit -2.5 over ARIZONA
I will always go against Carson Palmer. Always. When the line is this low it just makes it that much easier for me to do so.

OAKLAND -6 over Jacksonville
Somewhere someone who isn’t a Raiders fan or a Jaguars fan is going to bet on this game and watch it in its entirety. Think about that. (I used that write-up twice in Week 1 and will probably use it for every Jaguars game for the season because what else am I going to say about the Jaguars? Unless they finally realize they should sign Tim Tebow.)

NEW YORK GIANTS +5.5 over Denver
The last thing Eli needs to do to officially be able to tell Peyton to “Shut up” at Thanksgiving every Thanksgiving forever is to beat him directly.

San Francisco +2.5 over SEATTLE
I’m hoping for the Seahawks hype bandwagon to come to a crashing halt the way I used to watch The Weather Channel religiously in high school during the winter the night before a test or a project was due. The 49ers can start that process.

Pittsburgh +7 over CINCINNATI
The Steelers look ready to go into rebuild mode, especially when they’re losing to the Titans at home. But even though the Steelers are nowhere near the Super Bowl team they were three years ago, I’m not ready yet to start taking the Bengals to cover a touchdown at home against a team they have trouble barely beating in a nasty division rival matchup. Prove to me that you mean business, Cincinnati, and then we can talk.

Last week: 3-12-1

Read More