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The Real Rangers

The Rangers turned their season around over the last 14 days and now look like the team we expected after a series of trades with the Blue Jackets.

The nine-game road trip to start the season is long gone. The Rangers team that started the season 1-4 and was then 2-6 is gone too. The team that was outscored 20-5 during a three-game losing streak from Oct. 8 to Oct. 12 is gone as well. The team that lost consecutive games to the Devils and Flyers and were outscored 6-1 in those two losses … also gone. The Rangers we have seen since their come-from-behind win in Detroit on Oct. 26 are the Rangers we expected to see in 2013-14. They are the Real Rangers.

The Real Rangers are the Rangers we thought we would be getting when they traded for Rick Nash and then when they traded Marian Gaborik for depth. And last Thursday when they played their frequent trade partner in Columbus we were allowed somewhat of a glimpse into what life would be like if the Rangers kept their conference finals losing team of 2011-12 together. And with that glimpse came the chance for former Rangers to air their grievances with their New York departures and what happened with John Tortorella. Here’s what Brandon Dubinsky said about his relationship with Tortorella, who seemed to have a deteriorating relationship with every player on the team:

“I think my relationship with Torts fell apart the last year that I was there (in New York). I just felt like his relationship with some of the other players could be doing the same thing. So I guess that pretty much sums it up. I wasn’t completely surprised that it happened.”

As for Dubinsky’s trade?

“The hardest part for me was that we went from growing up together and taking a team — and I wasn’t there the first year of the lockout, but after that I was there every other year— we went from taking a team that hadn’t made the playoffs in forever to a team that was in the conference finals. And I guess when you look at it — not only my trade and sending Artie and Timmy here, but I guess all of the moves as a whole — I didn’t understand it quite that you would want to bring so many new guys in after you’ve had such a successful season and such a successful playoff run.”

As I have said countless times, the Rangers reaching the conference finals in 2011-12 wasn’t indicative of who they were. Yes, they were the No. 1 seed in the East that year, but they backed their way into the playoffs and if the season were 83 games instead of 82, the Penguins would have been the 1-seed. The Rangers won an inordinate amount of games in 2011-12 through comebacks and late goals and overtime and shootout wins and relied heavily on Henrik Lundqvist, the eventual Vezina winner in an historical season. It’s why they needed seven games to get past the Senators in the quarterfinals and the Capitals in the semifinals and why they needed to overcome 3-2 series deficits in both of those series just to reach the conference finals. I don’t usually agree with Glen Sather, but he knew that the 2011-12 Rangers weren’t good enough to win the Cup in 2012-13 and that they weren’t really as close to winning it all as being two wins away from the Final and six wins away from winning it made them seem. It’s why he wanted Rick Nash that February and why he got him that July.

“Sometimes that’s just the way New York is. They like the flash and the dash and they want a new toy, I guess. And that’s no disrespect to the organization or anybody, of course, because they were so great to me. But that was the hardest part.”

It would have been harder for the Rangers to trade Dubinsky in the Nash deal if he didn’t score just 10 goals and 34 points in 77 games in 2011-12 (he didn’t score his first goal until Nov. 11, which was his 15th game of the season, and he didn’t score his second goal of the season until Dec. 22, which was the 32nd game of the season). New York doesn’t need a “new toy” they just need one that works. And trading for a Team Canada first-liner, a 40-goal scorer and one of the game’s best offensive players even if it includes Dubinsky, who has as many goals in his career as Nash had when he was 21, is always the right decision.

The Real Rangers beat the Central Rangers on Thursday with Cam Talbot in net after Lundqvist stopped 28 of the 29 shots his potential next team (Pittsburgh) took the night before. Then the Rangers won again on Sunday night against Tim Thomas and the Panthers to improve to 7-2 in their last nine games. It’s only been 14 days since I wrote “The Last-Place Rangers” but since then the Rangers have turned their season around without their best player and are currently hold the 6-seed in the Eastern Conference thanks to the screwed up playoff format created by the geniuses in the NHL front office and realignment. How did they get back to .500 and over it in two weeks? Let’s see.

Brad Richards
Remember the days of the amnesty buyout talks? Those were fun. But a funny thing happened on the way to the Rangers buying out Richards’ contract. That funny thing is that Richards was given a coach who values offense and not having his scorers muck it up on the corners and a system that is built around scoring since the objective of the game is actually to score more goals than your opponent and not play for one goal and then hope your goalie makes that one goal stand.

Richards leads the Rangers in goals (6) and assists (9) and therefore obviously points as well (15). He is every bit of the free agent center I wanted before the 2011-12 season and the one we saw that season (25-41-66) and nothing like the one we saw last season (11-23-34) before his postseason benching and healthy scratching. Richards is getting several high-quality scoring chances each game thanks to AV’s use of him by putting him on a line with the speedy Carl Hagelin, who we’ll get to now.

Carl Hagelin
Who’s that averaging 1.14 points per game? Why it’s Carl Hagelin! You might not recognize or remember him from the Tortorella era because he was playing with a governor on his wheels thanks to Tortorella’s defense-first (or really defense-only) system that didn’t allow Hagelin to use his speed to create scoring chances and highlight reel goals, which seem to come once a night now, that we are only used to seeing being scored against the Rangers by the Penguins and Capitals. It no longer seems to be a question of whether or not Hagelin can be a true top-six forward in the NHL, but rather whether or not he can sustain this level of play. Right now Hagelin looks like a completely different player under AV and that’s because he is.

Chris Kreider
On Oct. 29 in “The Last-Place Rangers” I said:

Kreider is now 22, which doesn’t seem that old, but he has two career regular-season goals in 26 games and 15 of the 18 players drafted ahead of him in 2009 have had better production. If he was drafted in the first round for a reason and hyped as much as he was and sold to us that he is a top-six forward in the league and a potential dynamic scorer then let him try to be that. There aren’t any better options right now.

Since then, Kreider has two goals and five assists in seven games and it’s the first time I have understood the decision to not include him in a February 2012 trade though I still don’t agree with it (and likely never will).

Henrik Lundqvist
Welcome back, Henrik. Like Annie telling her father (Nicolas Cage) at the end of The Family  Man: “I knew you’d come back. ”

After battling through an injury that led to him putting up Ilya Bryzgalov-like numbers, Lundqvist has allowed just nine goals in the six games since returning from his injury (three of those goals came on Sunday) and in four of the six games he has allowed one goal or less. I don’t think anyone expected Lundqvist to continue to allow three-plus goals a game like he was doing on the West Coast Embarrassment Tour and I don’t think anyone thought that the idea of being in a contract year was playing a part in his early-season failures either, but the thought of the Rangers trying to get by with an average Lundqvist was scary.

When the Rangers lost Nash and opened the season looking like they would be in a basement battle all season with the Devils and Flyers, the last thing anyone wanted to do was worry about the possibility of Lundqvist leaving a team with a losing future. Now there are reports that Glen Sather is expected to meet with Lundqvist’s agent Don Meehan in Toronto this week with the timing of the Hall of Fame inductions, which would seem like a good idea since it’s just a tiny bit important that Lundqvist doesn’t leave the Rangers for a better future and a better chance at winning with the Penguins or Islanders or a team that’s ready to write a blank check for him. If they continue to be the Real Rangers, he won’t have to.

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NFL Week 10 Picks

The Giants are back from their bye week and hopefully the second half of their season and the second half of the picks season will go better than the first half.

The Giants haven’t ruined a Sunday for me since Oct. 6 when they lost to Nick Vick in Philadelphia. Since then they have played on Thursday Night Football, Monday Night Football, beat the Eagles at MetLife in their only Sunday game since the loss to Nick Vick and then had their bye week. So that means this Sunday a month without Giants-induced depression Sundays will be put to the test against the Raiders.

With the Giants playing the Raiders and the Cowboys in New Orleans for what is likely an inevitable loss at the Superdome where everyone loses, the Giants could be one game back with seven to play and one of those seven against the Cowboys. Before I talk myself into taking the Giants back and making it Facebook official again, I’m just going to get into the picks.

Week 10! Let’s go!

(Home team in caps)

MINNESOTA +2.5 over Washington
The Thursday Night Football record is now at 7-2 and with success comes expectations, which is the last thing I need as I wait for the other shoe to drop with my Thursday picks. But in my wish to have the NFC East cleared out so that it’s the Giants and the Cowboys down the stretch it means the Redskins need to start losing.

TENNESSEE -12 over Jacksonville
The Jaguars have lost by less than 12 points once this season when they lost 19-9 in Oakland in Week 2. Aside from that game, they have lost by 26, 28, 34, 14, 16, 18 and 32. So as I have said before, there isn’t a realistic line in which I would take the Jaguars and certainly not at 12.

Philadelphia +1 over GREEN BAY
The moment Seneca Wallace took over for an injured Aaron Rodgers on Monday Night Football, we all finally saw what the Packers are without Rodgers even at Lambeau. Now Seneca and the Packers get to face Nick Foles and the Eagles and try to put out the only flicker of hope Philadelphia sports fans have right now with the Flyers in last place, the 76ers expected to finish last in the NBA and the Phillies still owing Ryan Howard at least $85 million between now and 2017. I want nothing more than for Foles to add to Philadelphia sports misery, but I know how bad Seneca Wallace is.

Buffalo +3 over PITTSBURGH
The Steelers’ season is over. At 2-6 and 3.5 games back in the AFC North and 2.5 games back of a playoff berth the have nothing to play for. They are just a name at this point and if their roster of players’ team name were say the Falcons and not the Steelers then they wouldn’t be a 3-point favorite at home against the Bills, but thanks to their national following they are. The Steelers are an old, worn-out team and unfortunately they aren’t facing Jeff Tuel this week.

NEW YORK GIANTS -7.5 over Oakland
Is it 2012? Or 2011? Or 2010? Or any year other than 2013? The Giants favored by more than a touchdown? The 2013 Giants? If we’re going to make this thing work down the stretch where it’s the Giants and Cowboys fighting for the division and a home playoff game (yes, the Giants could possibly host a playoff game this season) then they are going to need to prove they are capable of a run. And proving you’re capable of a run means beating the Raiders by more than a touchdown at home.

INDIANAPOLIS -9.5 over St. Louis
Kellen Clemens on the road. Kellen Clemens on the road. Kellen Clemens on the road. Kellen Clemens on the road. Kellen Clemens on the road.

Seattle -6 over ATLANTA
The Seahawks’ four road wins have come by 5, 3, 12 and 5 points, so it’s hard to feel confident about them going to Atlanta and covering 6. But this will be the first game the Falcons will play since having their season officially ended and there’s not better than an elite team and a real true Super Bowl contender facing a team that has nothing to play for.

BALTIMORE +1.5 over Cincinnati
The defending Super Bowl champs are a loss on Sunday away from not being able to defend their title this season. It wouldn’t be a surprise since they are currently riding a three-game losing streak with those three losses coming by a combined 11 points and since they just lost after their bye week in Cleveland to Jason Campbell and the Browns. Even knowing all of this, I’m taking the Ravens.

Carolina +6.5 over SAN FRANCISCO
The Panthers’ five wins have come against teams with a combined 8-33 record, so this week it will certainly be the Panthers’ first real test since their 12-7 Week 1 loss to the Seahawks. The Seahawks, 49ers and Saints are the elite teams in the NFC, but the Panthers are in the tier right below them.

ARIZONA -2.5 over Houston
Yup, it’s that Game of the Week …

Somewhere someone who isn’t a Cardinals fan or a Texans fan is going to bet on this game and watch it in its entirety. Think about that.

Denver -7 over SAN DIEGO
This line does seem high for a divisional matchup between a great team on the road against a good team, but I would rather lose with Peyton Manning than lose with Philip Rivers knowing that I went against Peyton Manning.

NEW ORLEANS -7 over Dallas
The Saints burned me in Foxboro with their last-second loss to the Patriots and then again with their embarrassing performance in East Rutherford. But the Saints never burn me at home in the Superdome where no opponent really stands a chance, especially not the Cowboys, who have one road win this season that came against the Eagles in Week 7. That’s not exactly the road resume of a team playing in primetime in New Orleans that you want to back.

Miami -3 over TAMPA BAY
Darrelle Revis said on Twitter that making $16 million and playing for the winless Buccaneers is better than making $12 million and playing for the 5-4 Jets. Sure, Revis has a point that getting paid 33 percent more is better, but have you heard the term “Revis Island” (that Revis recently trademarked) lately or anything positive about Revis? No, you haven’t because Revis is playing in the wrong system for his talent and abilities on the wrong team and wasting away in Tampa Bay in the Buccaneers’ 0-8 circus while his former team currently owns the 6-seed in the AFC playoffs. Enjoy the extra millions in football Siberia.

Last week: 6-6-1
Season: 57-71-5

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NFL Week 9 Picks

The Giants have a bye week in Week 9, but I don’t get one in the road to respectability this picks season.

The Giants are 1-0 in their last three Sundays thanks to Thursday Night Football and Monday Night Football and that record will stay intact through this Sunday as well with the Giants’ bye this week. What I’m trying to say is that this Sunday will mark a month of non-depressing Sundays thanks to the Giants.

And like the New York Football Giants season, which my picks season has mirrored this season, I have recorded two over-.500 weeks the last two weeks for my first two over-.500 weeks of the season. But unlike the Giants, I don’t get a bye to regroup and the fight back to respectability (if it’s even obtainable) continues in Week 9.

Week 9 … let’s go!

(Home team in caps)

MIAMI +2.5 over Cincinnati
This week is an absolute gauntlet for lines with five of the 13 games featuring lines of 7 or more. But even with so much uncertainty across the league, I can always count in the Thursday Night Football pick to give me a win since I’m not 6-2 on the year on the much-hated Thursday game.

CAROLINA -7.5 over Atlanta
The Panthers are a frustrating team, but their only home loss came in Week 1 against the Seahawks, who might be the best team in the league, and they have won their other three home games by 25, 15 and 18. So when it comes to the banged-up, underachieving 2-5 Falcons, it’s the right decision, even if it’s an NFC South matchup.

DALLAS -10 over Minnesota
When the ESPN ticker said, “Christian Ponder will start for the second straight week,” I knew all I needed to know.

New Orleans -7 over NEW YORK JETS
A tricky, tricky game because the Jets are a different team in MetLife (3-1) than they are on the road (1-3) and the Saints are a different team anywhere outside the Superdome. But after what I saw from the Jets last week in Cincinnati, I wouldn’t feel comfortable taking Geno Smith to cover against Drew Brees since I’m not sure I feel confident the Jets can even score a touchdown.

ST. LOUIS RAMS +3 over Tennessee
It feels like the Titans had a double bye week last week since it feels like forever since I had to pick one of their games. After starting the season 3-1, they have lost three games in a row and their losing streak started when Jake Locker was injured. But don’t let the Titans semi-respectable 3-4 record fool you since their three wins have come against the Steelers, Chargers and Jets.

Kansas City -4.5 over BUFFALO
I really, really, really wanted to take the Bills here and pick for Thad Lewis, but now that he’s out and Jeff Tuel, possibly the worst quarterback of the 2013 season is in, I’m not sure how I can take the Bills to keep it close in Buffalo against the last undefeated team.

WASHINGTON 0 over San Diego
The Giants are 2-6 and still in the NFC East race. The Redskins are 2-5 and in even better shape in the NFC East race. Unfortunately, I think the Redskins will be there in the end. Not “be there” as in win the division, but I think they will be fighting right up until the holiday season with the Giants and Cowboys while the Eagles finish up another fourth-place season.

OAKLAND -2.5 over Philadelphia
Somewhere someone who isn’t a Raiders fan or an Eagles fan is going to bet on this game and watch it in its entirety. Think about that.

SEATTLE -16 over Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay is the new Jacksonville in that I would take pretty much any elite team to cover any spread against them. Sixteen points? That’s it?

CLEVELAND +2.5 over Baltimore
Is Jason Campbell the answer at quarterback for the Browns? Did I really just ask that question in 2013?

NEW ENGLAND -6.5 over Pittsburgh
The Patriots aren’t what we have known the Patriots to be since the 2000s, but that doesn’t matter against the 2013 Steelers at Gillette Stadium.

Indianapolis -3 over HOUSTON
This game badly screams, “TRAP! TRAP! TRAP!” but I’m going to do it anyway.

GREEN BAY -11 over Chicago
No Jay Cutler? This line seems low.

Last week: 7-6-0
Season: 51-65-4

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The Last-Place Rangers

The Rangers were shut out again on Monday and with each loss, the chances of Henrik Lundqvist’s departure increase.

On Monday night, for the grand opening of the latest and last renovation of Madison Square Garden, the 2013-14 Rangers were introduced and took the ice one by one by forming a circle around center ice rather than a traditional line across their blue line. This decision was likely done to symbolize the team aspect with all the players facing each other in a circle under the scoreboard that’s a decade overdue, but it made me think that it gave Henrik Lundqvist a better look at the faces of his teammates and a chance for him to look around and wonder which, if any, of his teammates was going to score that night. None of them would score and the Rangers would lose their home opener 2-0 to the Canadiens.

Monday night’s 2-0 loss was the third time the Rangers have been shut out this season as they have been held to three goals or less in every game and have scored just three goals in their last five games. They have scored a league-worst 15 goals scored and are proud owners of a league-worst -2.00 goals per game differential. They were embarrassed by the Devils and scored one goal on a bad-angle shot against the Flyers. They have played for a possible 20 points in the standings and have earned six. After 10 games it’s clear that the 2013-14 Rangers are no different than the 2012-13 Rangers, who were no different than the 2011-12 Rangers, who were no different than the 2010-11 Rangers, who were no different than the 2009-10 Rangers, who were no different than the 2008-09 Rangers.

With each loss and especially each shutout, comes more of a reason for Lundqvist to leave the Rangers after Game 82 for a better team and a better chance at winning it all. Why wouldn’t he? Nothing has changed on the ice in front of him for the last five years and it’s hard to fault him for leaving the door open to play the second half of his career somewhere where winning 1-0 isn’t the game plan every night. Thinking back to Lundqvist’s introduction you can’t help but wonder if it would be the last time he would be introduced on an Opening Night at Madison Square Garden as a member of the home team.

Without Rick Nash since the first two minutes and 42 seconds of the third game of the season on Oct. 8 and without Callahan since Oct. 16 and without Henrik Lundqvist for two games because of injury and also the game that forced Martin Biron into retirement, it’s easy to see why the Rangers are in last place in the Met and why only the Sabres, who started their fire sale on Sunday, are the only team with less points in the NHL. But just 26 days into the season, fans are wishing John Tortorella was still behind the bench rather than Alain Vigneault and longing for the days of skill players being sacrificed as shot-blocking bodies in his heavy defense system.

Meanwhile in Columbus, Marian Gaborik has five goals and five assists in 10 games for the Blue Jackets, which means he has more goals than Derick Brassard, Derek Stepan, Brian Boyle, Benoit Pouliot, Chris Kreider, Mats Zuccarello, Derek Dorsett, Dominic Moore, J.T. Miller and Taylor Pyatt combined. But hey, it was definitely worth trading a three-time 40-goal scorer because the head coach didn’t like him because 40-goal scorers are really easy to find! I’m much happier with Derick Brassard, Derek Dorsett, John Moore and a sixth-round draft pick than I would have been with Gaborik. (No, I’m not over the Gaborik trade yet and likely will never be just as I’m still not over the non-Rick Nash trade from February 2012.)

I’m not ready to start frequently “Ladies and gentlemen-ing” Alain Vigneault because that’s that the gateway drug to turning your back on someone and once you cross that bridge it’s hard to go back. I’m not ready to do so yet because Vigneault is just 10 games into his Rangers tenure and hasn’t been able to implement his proven system from Vancouver because he hasn’t had his real, true roster. The 3-7-0 start isn’t all on Vigneault given injuries to star players and a roster full of underachievers, but there are a few things that could and should change. Scratch that. They have to change.

Let Kreider Play
If Chris Kreider is a former first-round pick that the organization believes was and is their best prospect and someone they weren’t willing to trade for Nash in the team’s best season since 1996-97 then he needs to be on the Rangers for good. (Not “for good” like forever, but “for good” until they can properly evaluate who he is.) The Rangers need to stop Joba Chamberlain-ing Kreider’s role and sending back and forth between New York and Hartford and settle on a decision that they are either going to let him develop in the NHL with a set plan.

Kreider is now 22, which doesn’t seem that old, but he has two career regular-season goals in 26 games and 15 of the 18 players drafted ahead of him in 2009 have had better production. If he was drafted in the first round for a reason and hyped as much as he was and sold to us that he is a top-six forward in the league and a potential dynamic scorer then let him try to be that. There aren’t any better options right now.

Use Brian Boyle Properly
For all of the negativity I use toward Brian Boyle, I will admit that he could serve a purpose on this team. That purpose is being a fourth-liner with some penalty-killing time. Apparently AV is on the same page that John Tortorella was with Boyle and shares the same beliefs on Boyle that Mike Babcock shares when the Red Wings coach said, “Boyle always impresses me … He came to New York and became a good player,” which was the ultimate “Is this real life?” moment. (Maybe Babcock is interested in making a move?!)

Once upon a time, Brian Boyle was a scorer. That time was his junior and senior seasons at Boston College and his first full pro season with the Manchester Monarchs. He has 13 goals over the last two-plus seasons and 130 games despite ample playing time, but even with that alarming lack of scoring, he is still given ample playing time and this season he is being used on the second power-play unit, as a penalty-kill specialist and in crucial situations like the final minutes of games. I would be willing to accept Brian Boyle as a Ranger if he were used correctly, and while it’s not his fault that AV believes in him the way John Tortorella did and not the way the Los Angeles Kings didn’t, something needs to change.

Sure, you could cite Boyle’s 21-goal season in 2010-11 as a reason to believe that he could be a reliable secondary scoring option, but he’s going to be 29 in December and he is what he is at this point. Career backup catcher John Flaherty had a 27-game hit streak in 1996 and finished the year at .284, but you didn’t see teams other than the then-Devil Rays give him a chance to be a starter, did you?

Fix the Goof Troop
I have had several variations of the Goof Troop when it comes to the Yankees, including the combination of Robinson Cano, Alex Rodriguez, Nick Swisher, Mark Teixeira and Curtis Granderson during the 2012 playoffs, and it’s time for the first edition of the Rangers Goof Troop featuring Michael Del Zotto and Dan Girardi.

Del Zotto is just 23 years old, but can we all agree that we know what Del Zotto is and just accept it? Del Zotto is supposed to be an offensive defenseman, a potential power-play leader and real scoring threat, but he’s none of these things. Del Zotto is possibly the biggest liability in his own zone for any defenseman in the entire league and with no points in eight games, it’s hard to defend his lack of defense by citing his offense as a reason to keep him in the lineup when there hasn’t been any offense. And it’s Del Zotto’s fellow net-missing blueliner, Dan Girardi, that is equally as frustrating to watch.

Like I said at the start of The Rangers’ West Coast Embarrassment Tour, it’s a good thing some people are worried about the Rangers giving Lundqvist too much money and that the team will have its hands tied and be unable to re-sign Girardi. Why would you ever want to possibly overpay for your franchise goalie and best player when you have a so-called defensive defenseman with no points and a minus-7 rating through the first 12 percent of the season?

Girardi’s Sunday Skate-look in his own zone and apparent lack of responsibility around the net has become a consistent problem and one that leaves me wondering how the Rangers could ever think about re-signing him after the season and extending his time with the team. The Rangers are committed to Girardi and Del Zotto as one-third of their top six defensemen and it’s Vigneault’s job to figure out how to get the most out of them, even if there isn’t a lot to get.

It’s certainly early, but the Rangers aren’t exactly doing a good job of treading water until they can get healthy and dress a team that can score a goal. Right now, the Rangers are a bad team and on Tuesday night on the Long Island, the New York team with a real future and Henrik Lundqvist’s possible future team will want to show the Rangers just how bad they are.

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NFL Week 8 Picks

The Giants won their first game of the season and I had my first over-.500 week of the picks season as my picks season continues to go as the Giants’ season goes.

A win is a win. That’s what I have been telling myself and my girlfriend since the Giants’ 27-7 “win” over her Vikings on Monday Night Football. I say “win” because I’m not sure beating Josh Freeman and his 33 incompletions should really be considered a win. But a win is a win and the Giants desperately needed one (one as is one win this season) and if they have

I’m not sure how to act in a lost season that goes missing in September with three months still to be played. I’m used to watching the season unravel in November or December with a second-half collapse ruining what once looked to be a division title and possible first-round bye. I know how to deal with that type of season. I don’t know how to deal with this.

All Monday’s win did was take the Giants out of the Jadeveon Clowney sweepstakes and give Antrel Rolle another week of “winning out” proclamations to spew on sports radio. It didn’t give any more realistic hope to an epic comeback and possible playoff berth and a win this weekend in Philadelphia won’t do that either. Win this weekend and then beat the Raiders and then the Packers and then the Cowboys and we’ll talk.

***

As the Giants season goes, my picks season goes. And with the Giants’ first win of the year on Monday Night Football, I enjoyed my first over-.500 week of the season at 9-6. Thank you, thank you.But with a 9-6 week comes expectations and if my picks season is going to really, truly mirror the Giants season then expectations are the last thing I need just when it looks like I might be ready to turn around the first half debacle.

Week 8 … let’s go

(Home team in caps)

Carolina -7 over TAMPA BAY
If I only had to pick the Thursday games, I would be having a great year at 5-2. But aside from that …

Somewhere someone who isn’t a Panthers fan or a Buccaneers fan is going to bet on this game and watch it in its entirety. Think about that.

San Francisco -16.5 over JACKSONVILLE
After earning some respect in their loss to the Broncos and getting Vegas to lower their next line to just — at home against the chargers, Vegas isn’t willing to make things so easy for the Jaguars anymore. The Jaguars have now scored in single digits in four of seven games and have lost by an average of 31.7-10.9.

Dallas +3 over DETROIT
Let’s pretend for a second that the Giants could eventually have a chance at playing in the postseason. (Yes, I know how ridiculous that sounds.) Now if the Giants are going to get there, the Cowboys and Eagles would have to go into the tank and that means losing games like this one on the road in Detroit. But for as much as I despise the Cowboys and I greatly despise the Cowboys, this year feels like their year. Not “their year” in the sense that it’s “their year to win a championship.” No, no, no. I mean “their year” as in “their year to win the division and reach the postseason.” And with the Cowboys in 2013, that’s all their goal should really be.

New York Giants +5 over PHILADELPHIA
It shouldn’t matter if Michael Vick starts or Nick Foles or Nick Vick or Matt Barkley, the Giants should be able to keep this game close.

KANSAS CITY -7.5 over Cleveland
You never want to pick for the team whose quarterback situation is such a mess that they have Jeff Garcia saying he is willing to try out to be their quarterback if they are willing to let him, considering Garcia is 43 and last threw a pass in the NFL in 2008. I think I’ll take my chances with the undefeated 7-0 team against that team.

NEW ORLEANS -11.5 over Buffalo
My apologies to Thad Lewis who I greatly underestimated last week as he and the Bills went to Miami and upset the Dolphins. (OK, maybe it was more like the Dolphins offense and the Bills defense that were responsible for the upset, but Thad still gets the W for his resume.) The problem with trusting Thaddeus now is that he isn’t going to South Beach to face a Dolphins team that last won on Sept. 22. He’s going to the place where all quarterbacks (even great ones) and all opponents (even worthy ones) go to lose and lose big.

The Saints’ last home loss with Sean Payton as head coach came in Week 17 in 2010 when they had nothing to play for. Including the playoffs, the Saints have won their last 12 home games since that loss and here are their margins of victory going back from Week 4 in 2013 to Week 2 in 2011 with Payton as head coach: 21, 24, 6, 17, 28, 29, 14, 25, 11, 55, 7 and 17.

So what’s the best medicine for the Saints to get back in the win column after losing in Foxboro on an improbalby last-minute touchdown coming off their bye? How about the Bills in the Superdome?

Miami +7 over NEW ENGLAND
Playing in Foxboro against the Patriots isn’t what it used to be in terms of losing, but that has more to do with what the Patriots offense has become and not what their defense is. Sure, teams still have a hard time winning game at Gillette, but we’re not picking winners here and no one says the Dolphins are going to win, but covering a touchdown on the road against a division rival?

Aside from their 20-point blowout of the Buccaneers, who might very well be worse than the Jaguars, here are the margins of victory in the Patriots’ other six games: 2, 3, 7, 7, 3 and 3. (The Patriots went 4-2 in those six games.)

New York Jets +6.5 over CINCINNATI
The Giants are 1-6. The Jets are 4-3 and with a win and a Patriots loss, they will be tied atop the AFC East with the Patriots at 5-3. Back in 2010, I feared that the Jets might take over the New York football landscape after they went to back-to-back AFC Championship Games while the Giants missed out on the playoffs in both 2009 and 2010. But then the Jets lost to the Giants on Christmas Eve in 2011 and the Giants beat the Cowboys the following week for the division title and then ran the table in the playoffs and won the Super Bowl and the landscape never changed. It’s not going to change in 2013, but I don’t like there even being a possibility that it could.

Pittsburgh -3 over OAKLAND
There are very few teams I would trust picking the Steelers to cover three points on the road against. The Raiders happen to be one of them. And with the Steelers riding back-to-back wins, a win in Oakland and a 3-4 record will keep their postseason hopes alive with New England, Detroit, Baltimore, Miami, Cincinnati and Green Bay still on the schedule.

Washington +13 over DENVER
Do I trust the Redskins on the road with their defense against the Broncos offense? Of course not! But I think I have been trusting the Broncos a little too much lately and it’s time to realize that the Broncos defense just isn’t good and certainly isn’t a championship-caliber defense. And it seems like RGIII has put an end to his early-season sophomore slump.

ARIZONA -2 over Atlanta
I think Kurt Warner was the Cardinals quarterback the last time I picked the Cardinals. But after getting burned by Arizona seemingly every week since then, it’s time I turn my back on the Falcons. When I first looked at this line I couldn’t believe the Cardinals were giving points and it seemed like taking the Falcons was easy, actually too easy, and whenever you’re presented with a game like this and a line like this, you get the feeling that something is off. And oh yeah …

Somewhere someone who isn’t a Cardinals fan or a Falcons fan is going to bet on this game and watch it in its entirety. Think about that.

Green Bay -9.5 over MINNESOTA
Josh Freeman was historically bad on Monday Night Football after Leslie Frazier did the opposite of what any coach in any sport tries to do by putting their players in the best position to succeed. Frazier started Freeman and stuck with him despite the obvious lack of chemistry between the quarterback and his receivers. This week Frazier isn’t starting Freeman, but is instead going back to Christian Ponder, who got the Vikings off to an 0-3 start to the year. Ponder wasn’t good enough to start in Week 7 over a guy that had been a Viking for two weeks and had never taken a snap as Vikings quarterback, but now he’s good enough to start against the Packers? I know the first game everyone will be putting in their teasers this week.

Seattle -11.5 over ST. LOUIS
The Seahawks are trying to win the Super Bowl this year and the Rams reached out to Brett Favre about returning to the NFL to play quarterback for them.

Last week: 9-6-0
Season: 44-59-4

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