Keefe To The City

Dec 18, 2013

NFL Week 16 Picks

The Giants’ season has been over for a month, but the picks season still has 43 games to go.

It’s feel like the NFL season has already ended to me and that’s because the Giants haven’t played a meaningful game sine their Week 12 loss to the Cowboys a month ago. Now I’m stuck looking at an under-.500 picks season, there’s no fantasy football left to be played and the amount of games available to wager on will start to dwindle as teams lock up playoff berth and home-field advantage or mail it in for the last two weeks.

With Christmas Eve, Christmas and New Year’s Eve all in the next 13 days, football takes a backseat to the holiday season. But once New Year’s ends, football is back with Wild-Card Weekend and that’s when I lean heavily on football to get through the frigid January weather in the northeast. (Thankfully this year we have the Winter Olympics and therefore Olympic hockey to get through the February weather.)

But before I can even start to think about playoff football, I have to finish strong here in the last two weeks of the regular season with my picks. I’m currently 101-113-9 and 43 games left in the season, including playoffs, I have to finish at least 28-15 to finish over .500 for the season. It’s not going to be easy, but I have a 10-5-1 Week 15 to build off of.

Miami -3 over BUFFALO
It’s Week 16 and there is a lot on the line. Out of the 16 games, 13 of them have playoff implications with five divisions and eight playoffs spots still available. One of those games is this one because if the Dolphins beat the Bills and the Patriots lose to the Ravens, the Dolphins will be one game back of the Patriots with one to play. Sure, the Patriots play the Bills next week and will win that game and the Dolphins really don’t have a chance to win the AFC East (this is half the truth and half a reverse jinx attempt), but let me at least believe for a week, Football Gods?

CAROLINA -3.5 over New Orleans
The Saints have put themselves in a bad spot. If the NFC playoffs were to go through New Orleans, the Saints would easily be the NFC’s representative in the Super Bowl. But because of the Saints’ 3-4 road record (they are 7-0 at home) with brutal losses to the Patriots, Jets and Rams, the Saints are now playing for the NFC South title in Carolina. If this game were at the Superdome, I would be all about the Saints like always. But on the road, I’m going against them … like always.

Dallas -3 over WASHINGTON
Come on, this one is easy. There’s no doubt in my mind that the Cowboys will go to D.C. and walk all over the Redskins to make the Week 17 Cowboys-Eagles game in Dallas the NFC East Championship Game. Every year the Cowboys find themselves playing in a win-or-go-home situation in Week 17 and this year will be no different.

ST. LOUIS -4.5 over Tampa Bay
Did you know the Rams have more wins (6) than the Giants (5)? Sure, two of those wins came against Jacksonville and Houston, but the Rams did beat Arizona (9-5), Indianapolis (9-5), Chicago (8-6) and New Orleans (10-4). No, the Rams wouldn’t have been a playoff team if Sam Bradford didn’t get hurt considering they play in the same division as Seattle and San Francisco, but they are at least on the right track for the future, which is more than you can say about the New York Football Giants.

Cleveland +2 over NEW YORK JETS
You know who else has more wins the Giants? The Jets, that’s who. The Jets, who went weeks without throwing for a touchdown have more wins than a team just 23 months removed from winning the Super Bowl and a little over a year removed from looking like they could win the NFC East and possibly even have a first-round bye. No, things haven’t flipped in the New York football landscape (a terrible landscape to be a part of) and the Giants are still king, but it’s never a good look to finish a season worse than the Jets. Let’s go Browns!

KANSAS CITY -7 over Indianapolis
Here are the points against the Chiefs in their first nine games, which were all wins: 2, 16, 16, 7, 17, 7, 16, 17, 13. And here are the points aginst the Chiegs in their last five games: 27, 41, 35, 10, 31. I’m not sure what has happened to the Chiefs’ defense since their first loss of the season back in Week 11, but when the Raiders are putting up 31 on you at home it’s never good. Knowing that, I would normally shy away from the picking for the Chiefs to cover a touchdown at home, but this is the Colts we’re talking about and no playoff team has the ability to get run out of a building on the road like the Colts.

Minnesota +8 over CINCINNATI
I originally had the Bengals to cover here, but I thought more about it and the Vikings have covered for me so many times this year that I can’t turn my back on them now. (And my girlfriend, a Vikings fan, would probably give me a glare and not talk to me for at least 20 minutes upon finding out I picked against her Vikings.)

Denver -10.5 over HOUSTON
The same week in which reports come out that the Texans passed on Peyton Manning, Peyton returns to Reliant Stadium where he tormented the Texans for years. The last thing you want to do is pick against Peyton in a dome with the single-season touchdown record and the AFC’s No. 1 overall seed on the line. Maybe he will choke in January and the Broncos will lose in the divisional round, but when it comes to the regular season, Peyton Manning knows how to get the job done.

Tennessee -4.5 over JACKSONVILLE
There it is! It’s that Game of the Week …

Somewhere someone who isn’t a Titans or Jaguars fan is going to bet on this game and watch it in its entirety. Think about that.

SEATTLE -11 over Arizona
Carson Palmer in Seattle. Carson Palmer in Seattle. Carson Palmer in Seattle.

DETROIT -9.5 over New York Giants
I’m not sure what line would make me feel uncomfortable picking against the Giants right now, but 9.5 in Detroit certainly isn’t it. Maybe if this line were -13.5 or higher I would start to think twice about it, but even then, this Giants team has already started thinking about the Monday after Week 17 and a desperate Lions team at home only makes matters worse.

Oakland +10 over SAN DIEGO
I am always big on the Raiders covering against the Chargers and usually the line is a lot lower than 10. The Chargers have proven to be a December disaster in recent years and now that they have played themselves into an unlikely-but-still-possible position for the playoffs, I’m thinking the Raiders’ money line isn’t a bad decision here either.

GREEN BAY -2 over Pittsburgh
I have a feeling we are going to be looking at the NFC North being decided in Chicago next week between the Bears and Packers. You just know the Packers are going to win and then Aaron Rodgers will be back in Week 17 to face the Bears. That’s just how things happen. It’s what the Football Gods want.

BALTIMORE -2 over New England
It’s very weird to not see the “x” next to New England in the standings entering Week 16 to represent the Patriots’ clinched playoff berth. It’s even weirder not to see the “y” next to the “x” showing that the Patriots have also clinched the AFC East with two weeks left. The Patriots aren’t used to playing meaningful late-December games and now they will have to try and clinch the division on the road against the defending champions, who seem to pull off a different miracle each week.

Chicago +3 over PHILADELPHIA
Unfortunately, next week in Dallas, either the Cowboys or Eagles have to win. And one of those teams has to win the NFC East and make the playoffs. But that’s next week. This week it’s still easy to decide who to root against when it comes to an Eagles game.

SAN FRANCISCO -13 over Atlanta
This game would have been in every 10-point teaser this weekend if it weren’t Monday Night Football. But I can’t imagine a lot of people will want to create a 10-point teaser over two days and instead will end up taking the 49ers -13 by themselves on Monday night. That means this line isn’t going to stay at -13 for long and I am thankful it was there when I wrote this.

Last week: 10-5-1
Season: 101-113-9

Blogs • Rangers

Dec 16, 2013

Searching for Two Points

As of Sunday, it had been 10 days since the Rangers picked up two points and a win, so it felt like the right time to do a Retro Recap of the third period against the Flames.

It’s been 10 days since the Rangers earned two points. In that time they have played four games, earning just one point and allowing four goals in all four games. What makes it even worse is that in the four games, the Rangers scored just seven goals with three of them coming in one game (Dec. 7 vs. New Jersey) and to make it even worse than that, all four games were at home and to make it even worse that that, Henrik Lundqvist started all four games. The Rangers’ high-water mark of the season has been one game over .500. They have achieved that six times this season, but have managed to fall back to .500 following each win to bring them over .500 (with the exception of that Dec. 7 shootout loss to the Devils, which made them 15-14-1).

With 33 games gone (40 percent of the season), the Rangers found themselves in seventh place in the Metropolitan Division and 13th place in the Eastern Conference entering Sunday’s game against the Flames at Madison Square Garden. And then 15 minutes into the game against the Flames, they found themselves trailing 2-0, marking the third straight game they trailed by at least two goals before finding the back of the net. But Derek Stepan would score with 4:35 left in the first (his first goal in 10 games) and Carl Hagelin would tie it at 2 at 7:29 of the the second period, which is the way it would stay through the second. And that’s where we pick things up in this Retro Recap.

THIRD PERIOD

20:00: The Rangers fought back to tie the game at 2 and now they will try to successfully complete a comeback by winning the third period or winning in overtime or a shootout. It’s been 10 days since the Rangers’ last win, but it feels like it’s been a month. That win came over Buffalo on Dec. 5, which probably shouldn’t even count for two points this season, considering Buffalo has an NHL-worst 17 points.

As they always do, Swedish House Mafia takes us to the opening faceoff of the period with “Save The World,” which asks, “Who’s gonna save the world tonight?” It’s probably going to have to be Henrik Lundqvist and it should be since he hasn’t done anything worthy of a king since signing his extension on Dec. 4, going just 1-3-1 since then.

John Giannone is doing the play-by-play with Sam Rosen in Atlanta today calling the Falcons-Redskins game for FOX. When my girlfriend heard Sam’s voice earlier in the day and put two and two together that it was the same voice she hears during Rangers games, her face lit up as if a light went off in her head and she looked like a little kid seeing and hearing Tim Allen in The Santa Claus and realizing that guy who turns into Santa is also the voice of Buzz Lightyear.

17:32: It’s been a slow two and a half minutes to open the period with not much happening for either team. The puck just hit Derick Brassard in the middle of a line change near the Rangers bench, which drew a whistle, but not a too-many-men-on-the-ice penalty, which the ref then had to explain to both benches to delay the game. That’s all the action we have seen so far in the third.

16:42: The Rangers lead 19-14 in shots, which isn’t good for Lundqvist’s save percentage. AV has Carl Hagelin playing with Brian Boyle, which completely cancels out Hagelin’s speed. Why would you want Hagelin and Boyle on the same line? You wouldn’t.

15:16: The Flames score. Anton Stralman and Mats Zuccarello both get beat in the corner (with Zuccarello falling down) and then Derick Brassard gets beat to the net by Sean Monahan as Curtis Glencross finds Monahan and he gets one past Lundqvist. Another odd, bad goal scored against Lundqvist and the Rangers will have to come back again.

14:03: Usually these Retro Recaps work. Actually I think they pretty much always work. Whether it’s the Rangers needing a win, the New York Football Giants needing to win the 2011 NFC Championship Game or Phil Hughes needing to pitch a gem, whenever I do a Retro Recap for a game, it turns out to be for the best. Just thought I would throw this fact out there now, while there’s still 14 minutes for the Rangers to tie it.

13:36: Michael Del Zotto rips a shot from the point into some Calgary shin pads the way that only Michael Del Zotto can and the puck comes out of the zone. Just when it looked like Del Zotto was playing his way out of the lineup for good and possibly out of the organization, he had to go and score that goal against Vancouver in his first game back following two consecutive healthy scratches and five of eight healthy scratches.

12:37: Chris Kreider receives a long pass as he streaks down the left side and lets a slap shot go from just inside the blue as the crowd gets up and excited for the first time in the third period. It’s never a good sign when you’re trailing by one goal, not generating any offense and the crowd is creating artificial excitement off a low-percentage shot on a 1-on-1.

10:34: Since I already touched on putting Hagelin and Boyle on the same line, let’s talk about the idea of pairing Del Zotto with Dan Girardi. Is this real life? You’re going to put the worst defenseman on the team with the second-worst defenseman on the team? When I wrote that last sentence/question I meant for Del Zotto to be “the worst defenseman on the team” and for Girardi to be “the second-worst defenseman” on the team, but then I realized they interchangeable and could be classified as either.

We know that Del Zotto serves limited purpose since he isn’t a defensive defenseman and hasn’t evolved in the offensive defenseman we thought he might turn out to be. So he’s now just a defensive liability who doesn’t do enough in his own zone to be worthy of playing time and doesn’t score enough to be worthy of playing time, but he’s still getting playing time and plenty of it. Remember when the supposed strong, young defensive core was the future of the Rangers? (Crickets … crickets … crickets.)

As for Girardi, I hope I don’t hear anyone mention the need to extend him between now and the end of the season. He scored his second goal of the season for the Rangers on Thursday night, but he has a long ways to go to make up for the 15 goals he has scored against Henrik Lundqvist this season.

And the best part about this defensive pair is their inability to hit the net with any shot from the point. They are the opponent’s best breakout strategy.

10:12: Dylan McIlrath gets his stick up on Mike Cammalleri on the way to the corner after Cammalleri initiated contact with McIlrath to position himself in a way that would avoid him getting destroyed along the boards. McIlrath gets called for high-sticking and the Flames have a chance to put this game away.

9:45: A whistle on the power play and we’re reminded that coming up is the “Foxwoods Final Five,” which is when Foxwoods sponsors the final five minutes of the game. In December, the Rangers have played six games and have lost five of them and have been trailing by at least two goals for the final five minutes of the five losses. Is anyone even watching the final five minutes of Rangers games? Wouldn’t Foxwoods be better off sponsoring the first five minutes of the game?

8:12: The Rangers kill off McIlrath’s penalty as the Flames aren’t able to put together or set up anything in the Rangers’ zone. It looked like what I imagine the Rangers’ power play against the Rangers’ penalty kill looks like at practice.

8:02: With just three shots so far in the period, Joe Micheletti says, “The Rangers need shots.” Thank you, Joe. Here I was thinking there would be another way for them to tie this game.

7:53: The Rangers score! Derek Stepan makes a nice move near the bottom of the left circle and gets the puck to the front of the net where Kreider is to put it home. And how exactly did the Rangers score? With a shot on net, of course. Joe Micheletti, you genius you!

4:58: There was a TV timeout with 6:44 left and since then it’s been all Calgary as the Rangers are having a tough time clearing the zone and getting a chance. It feels like a Flames goal is coming any second now and probably will before I finish writing this.

4:33: And the puck is finally out of the zone.

3:56: Cammalleri gets called for roughing, which is some nice payback after he drew the penalty earlier against McIlrath.

3:16: Rick Nash makes a nice move along the goal line and with the puck in the air headed toward Karri Ramo, Ramo paddles it out of the air and it goes over the glass for a delay of game penalty. It’s going to be a 5-on-3 for the Rangers for 1:20. Flames head coach Bob Hartley looks like he just got back to his car in the parking lot of a grocery store only to find a note on it that says, “Sorry, I hit your car. I picked up your bumper and put it on top of your trunk. I was in a hurry and had to go and you weren’t around. Here’s my number.”

2:44: The power play unit is Nash, Stepan, Kreider, Brad Richards and Ryan McDonagh. In other words: only people that should be playing on the power play.

1:56: Kreider gets called for high-sticking in front of the net on the power play and it’s going to be a double minor. What a terrible turn of events. From a 5-on-4 to a 5-on-3 to now 4-4 to then being down 5-on-4 for the rest of the third and then 4-on-3 in overtime.

Guns N’ Roses’ “Nighttrain” is now playing at the Garden, so maybe everything will be fine.

0:00: That will do it for the third. We’re headed to overtime. One point for the Rangers, but getting one point once every four games isn’t going to cut it.

OVERTIME

5:00: The Flames start overtime with a 4-on-3 advantage and the Rangers have Boyle, Girardi and McDonagh on the ice. Over/under 45 seconds until this game is over? If you want to use Boyle to kill penalties during regulation, I get it. I don’t agree with it, but I get it. But when you’re using him in overtime to kill penalties and to kill a 4-on-3, well that’s just irresponsible. He is no way the best forward on the team suited for this role

4:23: A huge save by Lundqvist in front on Glencross, which momentarily saves the game for the Rangers. 30 big save on glen

3:26: Dominic Moore is now on the ice as the lone forward in the 4-on-3 and McDonagh is still on the ice, having played all of overtime so far.

2:56: Kreider’s penaty is killed off and I lost that under bet from earlier too.

2:16: Del Zotto sends a nice, long flip pass across the ice to lead Kreider, but it’s too hard to handle for Kreider to turn into a breakaway and he gets stopped. “Sandstorm” now blaring at MSG. With this soundtrack, how can the Rangers lose?

:40: Kreider and Del Zotto have a 2-on-1 chance, but with the puck bouncing on the ice, Kreider can’t handle it and the play is broken up.

0:00: That will do it for overtime. We’re headed for a shootout.

SHOOTOUT

Rangers: Mats Zuccarello starts things off by fooling everyone in the world. Instead of his patented move that has led him to a 50 perecent career success rate in shootouts, he comes down the right side and cuts into the middle moving slowly like usual, but then just snaps a shot off top tit on Ramo. 1-0 Rangers.

Flames: Former Bruin and lanky fourth-liner Joe Colborne comes down and somehow dekes Lundqvist to tie the shootout at 1.

Rangers: Nash makes a nice moves, but at the end when he tries to slide it in just inside the post on his forehand, Ramo’s right pad is there to stop it. If Nash had lifted the puck, it’s an easy goal.

Flames: Jiri Hudler gets stoned by Lundqvist

Rangers: Stepan can’t score.

Flames: Lundqvist stops Monahan.

Rangers: Richards comes flying down and wrists one medium tit or maybe three-quarters tit on Ramo. 2-1 Rangers and with a Lundqvist save, it’s over.

Flames: Lee Stempniak loses the puck and regains it in time to backhand one on the ice through Lundqvist’s legs as he moves right to left. We’re tied again.

Rangers: Brassard gets stopped.

Flames: I thought Cammalleri would end it, but he can’t.

Rangers: Dominic Moore rips one from the slot to the left side to give the Rangers a 3-2 shootout lead and a chance for Lundqvist to close it out again.

Flames: Lundqvist wants to see how long this Retro Recap can be as Paul Byron scores on him to tie it again.

Rangers: Benoit Pouliot goes to Nash’s one-hand move and gets the puck past Ramo with ease. Out of all the times I have seen the move done, never before has it pulled a goalie so far to one side, leaving basically an entire half of the net for Pouliot to slide it in. Come on, Lundqvist.

Flames: Lundqvist closes it out by stopping Mikael Backlund and looks tired and worn out doing so after raising his arms to the Garden rafters in triumph.

It wasn’t easy and it wasn’t pretty and it wasn’t against a good team, but a win’s a win. After 65 minutes of play and seven shootout rounds, the Rangers have their two points. They earned them.

Blogs • Giants • NFL

Dec 12, 2013

NFL Week 15 Picks

It’s ball-busting time in the NFL and the Giants are part of that group now that they have been mathematically eliminated from the playoffs.

It’s crunch time. Not just for me and my quest for .500 (I’m 91-108-8 and 17 under .500), but in the NFL where every division is (technically) still up grabs as are the second wild card in the AFC, seedings and home-field advantage. I don’t have an NFL season anymore because the Giants didn’t care to beat the Cowboys in Week 12 and now if I care to watch the Giants, which I don’t, it will only to be in hopes that they can spoil other team’s seasons.

When I referred to the Giants as “spoilers” after their recent mathematical elimination, my girlfriend referred to her Vikings as “ball busters,” which is her way of saying “spoilers,” which I decided to adopt over the traditional “spoilers” term. The problem is the Giants aren’t a true “spoiler” or “ball buster” because they aren’t used to playing for nothing in Week 15. And when you’re used to playing for something, it’s hard to get up when you’re playing for nothing. To be a true “ball buster” you have to be used to being a “ball buster” and using the last month of the season as your own Super Bowl since the possibility of playing in the actual Super Bowl is no longer a possibility.

With so much still on the line for teams that have a chance of playing in January, there are plenty of games featuring “ball busters” this week. So if you’re like me and the next meaningful NFL game for you without monetary meaning isn’t until Week 1 in 2014 then welcome to the Ball-Busting Party. There is plenty of room for all of you.

DENVER -10.5 over San Diego
I’m now 11-4-1 with Thursday picks. That means I’m 80-104-7 when it comes to picking games on Sunday and Monday.

If the Chargers hadn’t blown out the Giants last week then this line would be at least 13.5. But because the Giants have nothing to play for and Tom Coughlin couldn’t motivate a team with playoff aspirations and therefore can’t motivate one without them and because Eli Manning and the offense couldn’t care about at least finishing the year with respectable stats, the Chargers beat the Giants 37-14. So while it’s disappointing that the Giants will be going a second straight year without playoff football, at least you gave us this gift of the Broncos only giving 10.5 points to the Chargers.

Washington +7 over ATLANTA
The Redskins are in full-on crisis mode and it’s great. Their owner is being pressured to change the team’s name, their head coach is playing a game of chicken for his job with the owner, the franchise quarterback won’t hold himself accountable for a 3-10 season and the head coach has a broken relationship with the franchise quarterback and is about to start the backup quarterback for the final three games of the year. I’m no Mike Shanahan fan, but the best part of all of this is if the Redskins finish the season strong with Kirk Cousins as their quarterback, it will create the ultimate quarterback controversy entering the same year in which the Rams have the Redskins’ first-round pick because of the trade for Robert Griffin III. Let’s go Redskins!

San Francisco -6 over TAMPA BAY
I still don’t believe in the Buccaneers, mainly because I don’t want to.

Seattle -7 over NEW YORK GIANTS
I wish this game were in Seattle because then we could see just how bad things are for the New York Football Giants. If the Saints can go to Seattle and only score once and lose 34-7, what would happen to the Nothing To Play For Giants in Seattle?

Unfortunately, this game is at MetLife Stadium and those Giants fans who are crazy enough to sit in the snow and rain expected on Sunday to watch a 5-8 team play the NFC’s eventual Super Bowl representation will only get to see half of the blowout this game would have been in the Pacific Northwest.

Chicago -1 over CLEVELAND
A “There Are Three Games Left In The Season And We Can Still Make The Playoffs” quarterback controversy in Chicago! I love it!

Player A: 1,908 yards, 13 TDs, 8 INTs

Player B: 1,809 yards, 13 TDs, 1 INT

Player A is the Bears starting quarterback. Player B is the Bears backup quarterback.

Right now the Bears have the same record (7-6) as the NFC North-leading Lions, but lost to the in Week 4 (40-32) and Week 10 (21-19), so they lose out on the head-to-head tiebreaker. The Bears’ final three games are at Cleveland, at Philadelphia and home against Green Bay. The Lions’ final three last are home against Baltimore, home against the Giants and at Minnesota. The Lions clearly have the favorable schedule, but they’re the Lions and you can bet on them losing at least one of the three and possibly more, leaving the door open for the Bears.

The Bears are optimistic that Cutler will play this week against the Browns, but Cutler last played on Nov. 10 in that Week 10 loss to the Lions and before that, he hadn’t played since Oct. 20 in the Week 7 loss to the Redskins. This Sunday will be Dec. 15 and Cutler will have just 40 pass attempts in the last eight calendar weeks. If it’s up to me, I’m starting McCown in Cleveland. But either way, I’m picking the Bears.

INDIANAPOLIS -6 over Houston
It’s the weirdest team in the NFL against the most underachieving team in the NFL! The Colts haven’t won back-to-back games since their three-game winning streak from Week 2 to Week 4, yet they still clinched the NFC South last week despite going 4-4 over their last eight games. Earlier in the year it seemed like a given that the NFC East was the worst division, but the division has a combined record of 23-29 right now. The NFC South? Their combined record is 19-33. The NFC East might be the most underachieving division, but they’re no longer the worst.

JACKSONVILLE +1 over Buffalo
There it is! It’s that Game of the Week …

Somewhere someone who isn’t a Jaguars or a Bills fan is going to bet on this game and watch it in its entirety. Think about that.

MIAMI +2.5 over New England
I asked Mike Hurley what the Patriots are against the spread, so I wouldn’t have to go through and look and count the numbers myself since it seems like they cover, or at least don’t cover double-digit spreads. But he didn’t know. He guessed they are .500 against the spread. So because he “guessed” and I care deeply about giving my readers accurate information, I went back and looked. They are 6-7 against the spread, so Hurley was basically right since they can’t be .500 with 13 games played. I just wanted to be right when I said the following last week:

No team fails to cover spreads like the Patriots, but for some reason, every week they are favored by two possessions and every week I talk myself into taking them. I guess I do it because someday they will cover a spread like this 10.5-point one and I don’t want to miss out when they do.

I thought that most Patriots fans would have given up the idea of the Patriots reaching the Super Bowl without Rob Gronkowski, but there are still some believers out there given how awful the AFC is. Right now the Patriots are looking at playing at home in the divisional round against either the Bengals, Ravens, Chiefs or Colts. If they were to win that game, which they will (kind of a reverse jinx and kind of not) then they would play in Denver for a trip to the Super Bowl. So once again the Patriots are looking at playing one challenging playoff game to reach the Super Bowl.

MINNESOTA +6 over Philadelphia
Nick Foles, Chip Kelly and the Philadelphia Eagles are going to win the NFC East, but I’m going to pick against them all the way to their division title.

CAROLINA -11.5 over New York Jets
You could add 10 points to this line and I would still take it. The Panthers have lost one home game this season, which was their first game of the season against Seattle. Since then they are 5-0 at home and have won by 38, 15, 24, 4 and 21 points.

This past Sunday against the Raiders, the Jets threw a touchdown pass and it was made into a big deal after relying heavily on their running game the entire season. The problem is they will be going against the best run defense in the league this week and one that has only allowed 79.4 rushing yards per game.

Over/under 3.5 points for the Jets in Carolina?

Kansas City -5.5 over OAKLAND
Am I missing something here? Is there supposed to be a “1” before the first “5” in this line? Because while that would be a little ridiculous, it would make more sense than the Chiefs giving 5.5 to a team that just let the Jets put up 37 on them, considering the Jets scored just 46 totals points over their previous four games.

Arizona -3 over TENNESSEE
The Cardinals are 8-5 and aren’t a playoff team right now because Seattle is going to win the NFC West (they have a three-game lead over Arizona) and Carolina (9-4) has a hold on one wild-card berth and San Francisco (9-4) has a hold on the other. Fortunately for the Cardinals, they host San Francisco in Week 17, but unfortunately for the Cardinals, they have to play in Seattle in Week 16. The Cardinals are going to fall just short of the playoffs, but a season with at least eight wins with Carson Palmer as the starting quarterback should be applauded.

ST. LOUIS RAMS +6 over New Orleans
Inside the Superdome, the Saints are the best team in the NFL. Outside the Superdome, the Saints are one of the 10 worst teams in the league and maybe even worse than that. After embarrassing the Panthers in New Orleans, the Saints’ undefeated home streak with Sean Payton as coach is now at 16 games. But this season, once again, outside the Superdome the Saints can’t be trusted. And yes, they are playing in a dome, but they played in a dome in Atlanta in Week 12 and barely got out of there with a win.

Green Bay +7 over DALLAS
So it looks like Aaron Rodgers won’t be playing again this week and might not again this season as the 6-6-1 Packers watch their season slip away. Since Rodgers has become the Packers starting quarterback, here’s how their seasons have finished:

2008: Missed playoffs
2009: Lost in Wild-Card round
2010: Won Super Bowl
2011: Lost in divisional round (first game)
2012: Lost in divisional round after beating Joe Webb and the Vikings in the Wild-Card round

So in the last five years with Rodgers as the starter, the Packers have won five playoff games with four of them coming in the same year. And if the “Miracle at the Meadowlands” doesn’t happen, the Packers don’t even make the playoffs in 2010 let alone win the Super Bowl. Maybe the “Best Player in the League” title is a little inaccurate?

Cincinnati -3 over PITTSBURGH
Like the Giants, the Steelers have nothing to play for.

DETROIT -6 over Baltimore
We are still a few weeks away from my column breaking down which team I want to win the Super Bowl with the Giants unable to. The Lions are in that mix.

Last week: 9-7-0
Season: 91-108-8

Blogs • Yankees

Dec 7, 2013

I’m Going to Miss Robinson Cano

The Yankees mistreated their homegrown second baseman in free agency and now Robinson Cano is a Mariner.

Three years ago, Cliff Lee ruined Christmas. On Dec. 13, 2010, Lee chose the “mystery” Phillies over the Yankees and left me only to envision what a rotation led by CC Sabathia and Lee could look like. I stayed up until 6 a.m. that night writing this eventual column, which was a borderline emotional and physical breakdown after losing out on Lee twice in four-plus months despite deals being on the 1-yard line.

This year, Robinson Cano has ruined Christmas. Or Brian Cashman and the Yankees have ruined Christmas. Or the combination of Jay-Z, Roc Nation and CAA have ruined Christmas. It depends on how you look at it. I blame Brian Cashman and the Yankees.

I opened that Cliff Lee column by saying:

I was thinking of sending in the lyrics to Pearl Jam’s “Black” instead of writing this since I am holding back tears and shaking, but I wasn’t sure if turning in Eddie Vedder’s work as my own counts as plagiarism since it’s a song.

But I’m not joking anymore. With Cano headed for the Pacifc Northwest and grunge and rain and Starbucks, I’m turning to Eddie’s magical voice to help me get through this one.

Hey… oooh…

Sheets of empty canvas, untouched sheets of clay
Were laid spread out before me as her body once did.
All five horizons revolved around her soul as the earth to the sun
Now the air I tasted and breathed has taken a turn

On Monday morning, while Brian Cashman was rappelling down a building in Stamford, Conn., a seemingly annual tradition for the general manager who broke his leg last offseason jumping out of an airplane with the Golden Knights, his free-agent second baseman (the player who was supposed to be the next face of the franchise and transition the Jeter-Rivera-Pettitte years into the next era of Yankees baseball) was in Seattle meeting with the Mariners.

The first news of the day I found out was that Cano and Jay-Z (or Jay-Z) turned down the Mariners’ offer and the deal was off after Cano’s team’s incredible demands. But then out of nowhere, while I sat back and waited for the Yankees to come in to save the day, a deal between Cano and the Mariners became imminent. There was no report of new talks or progression or anything. Out of nowhere, the Mariners had upped their offer to the Albert Pujols’ level of 10 years and $240 million. With A-Rod on the books until 2017 with his ill-advised 10-year deal, Mark Teixeira breaking down with three years years to go on his eight-year deal and Jacoby Ellsbury yet to start his new seven-year deal (which will mean I will be watching a 37-year-old Ellsbury in the Yankees outfield in 2020), I knew there was no way Cashman and the Yankees would counter the Mariners’ offer at the last minute. Robinson Cano was gone.

Ooh, and all I taught her was everything
Ooh, I know she gave me all that she wore

And now my bitter hands chafe beneath the clouds of what was everything.
Oh, the pictures have all been washed in black, tattooed everything…

Some Yankees fans are happy that Cano is gone because they are happy the Yankees aren’t locked into him for seven or more years for a high six-figure salary. They are happy because down the road, in say 2019 or beyond, Cano’s contract might have become a burden on the team and prevented them from making other moves. They think this because they think the Yankees work under some sort of budget.

For two years, maybe more, we have heard about the goal to stay under $189 million (a goal … not a mandate) for the 2014 season and avoid luxury tax penalties. But when the Yankees missed the playoffs for the second time since 1993, the Stadium attendance dropped and the upper deck looked as empty as it did in the ’80s and the team was a month into their offseason as their rival won the World Series for the third time in 10 seasons, the $189 million goal went out the window just like every budget the Yankees have ever suggested. And if something similar happens in four or five or six years or ever, the Yankees will spend that winter doing the same thing they did this winter and the same thing they did after the 2008 season when they gave $423.5 million to Sabathia, Teixeira and A.J. Burnett.

I take a walk outside, I’m surrounded by some kids at play
I can feel their laughter, so why do I sear?
Oh, and twisted thoughts that spin round my head, I’m spinning, oh,
I’m spinning, how quick the sun can drop away

There is a belief that Cano felt mistreated by the Yankees’ offer and he should feel that he was mistreated because he was. But he shouldn’t be surprised by the Yankees’ actions. The Yankees under Brian Cashman have proven they will lowball their own players and nickel and dime them in free agency, but will have no problem throwing money at other team’s players.

After the 1998 season, the Yankees tried to screw over Bernie Williams by offering him $60.5 million and Number 51 was ready to go to Boston for $90 million before the Yankees made literally a last-second call to Williams and offered $87.5 million, which was still a lowball offer from Boston’s, but Williams took it. Five years ago, the Yankees had no problem giving Burnett a fifth year after the 2008 season and $82.5 million, outbidding themselves in a sweepstakes against no one. Two years later, Cashman would publicly call out Derek Jeter, while the Yankees front office counted their pennies for the face of their franchise and the most important Yankee to the team’s finances for nearly two decades.

Yes, it was ridiculous that reports, whether true or not, came out that Cano was looking for $310 million as if he were looking for Santa Claus, the Easter Bunny and the Tooth Fairy. And it’s ridiculous that the Mariners are willing to pay him $240 million over the next 10 years. But it’s really ridiculous that the Yankees were willing to give $153 million to an inferior player in Jacoby Ellsbury while maintaining their stance on their own Cano at $175 million. The Yankees didn’t and don’t need Ellsbury. They do need Cano. And without signing a luxury, not a necessity, in Ellsbury, they would have been able to up their seven-year, $175 million offer to Cano (even though they’re the Yankees and they could have upped it anyway).

And now my bitter hands cradle broken glass of what was everything
All the pictures have all been washed in black, tattooed everything…

All the love gone bad turned my world to black
Tattooed all I see, all that I am, all I’ll be… yeah…

In the last four seasons, Jacoby Ellsbury has played 384 of a possible 648 games. In 2011, he finished second in the AL MVP voting after hitting .321/.376/.552 with 32 home runs, 105 RBIs, 46 doubles, 119 runs and 39 stolen bases. But that was two years ago and was his only double-digit home run season in his six-plus year career. And those 32 home runs make up 49 percent of his career total (65) since entering the league in 2007.

In the last seven seasons, Robinson Cano has missed 14 games … total. He has never played fewer than 122 games in his nine-year career, is a career .309 hitter with four consecutive Silver Sluggers, two Gold Gloves and has finished in the Top 6 in MVP voting in the last four years. He has hit 25-plus home runs the last five years, has three seasons with 107-plus RBIs and seven seasons with 41-plus doubles. He is considered a Top 5 hitter in the game, the best all-around second baseman in baseball and a Hall of Fame candidate.

If the 30-year-old Ellsbury is worth $153 million on the open market then how are you going to tell your home-grown, soon-to-be 31-year-old second baseman and the best player on your team that he’s only worth $22 million more? I’m asking because I don’t know the answer.

Uh huh… uh huh… ooh…

I know someday you’ll have a beautiful life,
I know you’ll be a star in somebody else’s sky,
But why, why, why can’t it be, can’t it be mine?

The justification of losing Cano has turned into fans being happy that the Yankees didn’t end up getting him for a costly amount as if they were footing the bill. But for those who didn’t care about the money, they cite his lack of hustle as a reason to be fine with him no longer being a Yankee.

Cano’s seemingly care-free attitude was frustrating at times. In October 2012, with the trip to the World Series on the line, he watched the ALCS like he was on vacation at a resort in Aruba. How’s he going to watch a mathematically-eliminated Mariners team play out the string in August and September? Maybe flood the dugout and lay on a raft?

I have never been one to think Robinson Cano is lazy. Yes, he tries to be smooth and make plays look so smooth and easy, and he almost always successful in doing so, but there’s a reason Joe Girardi had to bench him in September 2008 for a lack of hustle on a fielding play. And there’s a reason why Larry Bowa was on his ass when Joe Torre was the manager. There were times when he could done a little more to make an important play like this non-diving attempt, which would have prevented a run against the Orioles in the 2012 ALDS.

And there were times when he just needed to get the ball out of the outfield or take a pitch and he wouldn’t or when he would swing at the first pitch in the late innings of a game in which the Yankees were trailing, which was a popular Cano move on getaway day. It’s not like these things happened all the time. The problem is they happened in New York, so it seems like they happened all the time.

But for all the negative remarks that will be made about Cano as fans try to justify to themselves that it’s not a big deal that he’s gone, they should remember him for being a part of the 2009 championship team, the way he tried to carry the offense in the 2005 ALDS and 2007 ALDS, his four home runs against the Rangers in the 2010 ALCS and his grand slam off Al Alburquerque in the 2011 ALDS. They shouldn’t remember the way he ended his Yankees’ postseason career, going 2-for-22 (.091) against the Orioles in the 2012 ALDS and 1-for-18 (.056) against the Tigers in the 2012 ALCS.

Aah… uuh..

Too doo doo too, too doo doo

No one thought Cano, a Dominican-born player, would leave the Yankees. No one thought he would give up an annual chance at a championship for the lowly Mariners, who have finished over .500 once in the last six years and have four postseason appearances to the Yankees’ 17 since 1995. No one thought Jay-Z, a Yankees fan himself who rode in the 2009 World Series parade with the team, would let his client leave the Bronx. Then again, no one thought Cano would get nearly a quarter of a billion dollars in state-tax free Washington.

If the Mariners were willing to give a 10-year, $240 million offer (which they obviously were) then the Yankees never had a chance. The New York City life, the big-market attention, the idea of being a lifetime Yankee, having Number 24 end up in Monument Park and a potential Cooperstown plaque with a Yankees hat meant more to those who analyze Cano than it ever meant to Cano.

Cano got his $240 million. I got Ellsbury, McCann and Carlos Beltran and the 2014 Yankees are already better than the 2013 Yankees were. But that doesn’t mean I won’t miss the swing, the smooth poses, the throws from the shortstop side of second and the over-the-shoulder-catches of Robinson Cano.

Blogs • Giants • NFL

Dec 5, 2013

NFL Week 14 Picks

The quest for .500 continues with four weeks left in the regular season.

Last week I went into the 4:00 games with a 7-2-1 record between the Thanksgiving games and the Sunday 1:00 games. I ended up finishing the week at 8-7-1. That pretty much sums up this picks season.

Week 14! Let’s go!

(Home teams in caps)

JACKSONVILLE +3.5 over Houston
After a 2-1 Thanksgiving Day, the Thursday picks are 10-4. This is the one game I feel confident picking.

Kansas City -3.5 over WASHINGTON
Once upon a time, the Chiefs were 9-0. Now they’re 9-3. With three consecutive losses to the Denver (27-17), San Diego (41-38) and Denver (35-28) again, the Chiefs have given up almost more points in the last three weeks (103) than they had in their first nine games (111). But now the Chiefs go to Washington where the Redskins are marred by a 3-9 record and a season of turmoil that will likely lead to the departure of Mike Shanahan at the end of the season and will lead to a long offseason of “Robert Griffin III or Kirk Cousins” debates. I can’t wait.

Minnesota +7 over BALTIMORE
I’m picking the Vikings here because they have done a good job for me this season and I want to repay them for their efforts. But really I’m picking them because I want the Ravens’ offense to get off a lackluster start so that John Harbaugh brings out the Wildcat and then Joe Flacco calls out Harbaugh again in his postgame press conference. These are the things you look forward to in Week 14 when your team is 5-7 and the playoffs aren’t a real possibility.

NEW ENGLAND -10.5 over Cleveland
No team fails to cover spreads like the Patriots, but for some reason, every week they are favored by two possessions and every week I talk myself into taking them. I guess I do it because someday they will cover a spread like this 10.5-point one and I don’t want to miss out when they do.

Oakland +3 over NEW YORK JETS
Geno Smith has thrown eight touchdowns and 19 interceptions this season. His last touchdown pass came on Oct. 20 in Week 7. It’s now Dec. 5 and Week 14. Here is what Smith has done since Week 7.

Week 8 at Cincinnati: 20-for-30, 159 yards, 0 TD, 2 INTs

Week 9 vs. New Orleans: 8-for-19, 115 yards, 0 TD, 0 INT

Week 11 at Buffalo: 8-for-23, 103 yards, 0 TD, 3 INTs

Week 12 at Baltimore: 9-for-22, 127 yards, 0 TD, 2 INTs

Week 13 vs. Miami: 4-for-10, 29 yards, 0 TD, 1 INT

He has thrown eight touchdowns and 19 interceptions this season. His last touchdown pass came on Oct. 20 in Week 7. It’s now Dec. 5 and Week 14.

Indianapolis +7 over Cincinnati
Yes, I know the Bengals are undefeated at home and the Colts are the weirdest team in the NFL, but seven points with two 8-4 teams?

Detroit +2.5 over PHILADELPHIA
Yes, the Giants are done when it comes to the playoff picture. But there is that little, tiny, miniscule, minute chance that they could get in. The only way that’s possible is if the Eagles and Cowboys collapse. And given the history of both teams, it’s very possible. The one problem is that the best record the Giants can be is 9-7. The Eagles and Cowboys are both 7-5, but play each other in Week 17, so one of the two teams will win at least one more game this season. So let’s say the Cowboys win that Week 17 game, that means at worst they would finish the season 8-8. And let’s say the Eagles finish the season 1-3 and end up 8-8 also. That’s what it would take for the Giants to make the playoffs.

Miami +3.5 over PITTSBURGH
I just don’t want the Steelers to do well, OK?

TAMPA BAY -3 over Buffalo
There it is! It’s that Game of the Week …

Somewhere someone who isn’t a Buccaneers fan or a Bills fan is going to bet on this game and watch it in its entirety. Think about that.

GREEN BAY -4 over Atlanta
Yes, I’m still upset about the parlay from last year.

DENVER -13.5 over Tennessee
The Broncos are 6-0 at home this season and have won by margins of 22, 16, 32, 16, 24 and 10 points. That’s good enough for me.

ARIZONA -6.5 over St. Louis
The Cardinals couldn’t help the Giants out last week by pulling off the late-game comeback against the Eagles and usually that would make me pick against the team I needed. But in this case, I’m staying with the Cardinals since if I pick against them, they will cover. Yes, that’s what this picks season has come to.

New York Giants +4 over SAN DIEGO
The over/under on stories from the FOX broadcast team about the 2004 Draft and Eli Manning and Philip Rivers during this game is set at 12.5 and I have the over. Even if the Giants’ season is over, I don’t want Eli to lose to Rivers, or get outplayed.

SAN FRANCISCO -2.5 over Seattle
Why wait until Feb. 4 to have the Seahawks-Broncos Super Bowl? Why not just have it right now while temperatures are still somewhat manageable since that’s what the Super Bowl matchup is going to be? The same way the Broncos and Falcons met in Super Bowl XLVII. The same way the Patriots and Packers met in Super Bowl XLVI. And the same way the Patriots and Falcons met in Super Bowl XLV. Sure there are years like 2009 when the Colts and Saints (both 1-seeds) did end up playing in the Super Bowl, but more times than not the 1-seeds don’t meet.

NEW ORLEANS -3.5 over Carolina
Do I need to post it again from old picks? OK, I will …

The Saints’ last home loss with Sean Payton as head coach came in Week 17 in 2010 when they had nothing to play for. Including the playoffs, the Saints have won their last 15 home games since that loss and here are their margins of victory going back from Week 4 in 2013 to Week 2 in 2011 with Payton as head coach: 21, 24, 6, 17, 28, 29, 14, 25, 11, 55, 7, 17, 18, 32 and 3.

CHICAGO +1 over Dallas
What I said about the Eagles.

Last week: 8-7-1
Season: 83-101-8