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Blogs • Yankees

Sep 30, 2015

The Wild-Card Game Starting Pitcher Dilemma

Here are the most likely candidates I would love the Yankees to face to who I’m petrified at even the thought of them facing in the wild-card game.

Dallas Keuchel

The Yankees are going to the playoffs and the only thing left to do is secure home-field advantage for the one-game playoff. After winning three of four from the White Sox, the Yankees produced two ugly efforts against the Red Sox and their lead for the first wild card is dwindling. Once they secure home-field advantage, the last thing to do is figure out who they are going to face.

My hope is that the Astros, Angels and Twins will have to play right up until the final out of Game 162 on Sunday to determine who will head to Yankee Stadium for Tuesday, and as of right now, that scenario is playing out exactly as needed.

Wild Card Standings

With all three teams separated by 1.5 games in the standings and just one game in the loss column, the next five days is going to be everything Bud Selig and Major League Baseball dreamed of when they implemented this outrageous format for their postseason. I decided to not get greedy in asking for the teams to play right through Game 162 because had I gotten greedy, I would have asked for the teams to tie and produce an incredible tie-breaker scenario that could force a one-game playoff before the already scheduled one-game playoff. The reason the Yankees need these teams to go all out until Sunday afternoon is so they can’t line their best starting pitcher up for the one-game playoff and in some cases (Houston … cough … cough), it’s a huge disadvantage.

Not included in those standings is Texas, which is two games up in the AL West over Angels and 2.5 games up over the Astros. The Rangers are most likely going to win the West and avoid the one-game playoff, but there’s still a chance they could give the division away in the final days, so I have included the Rangers.

Whether the Yankees face an opponent’s ace or their No. 5 on Tuesday, it’s going to be an experience that will likely cause my heart rate and blood pressure to reach dangerous levels. I have already packed my One-Game Playoff Survival Kit to get me through the game and help me cope with the end of the finality of the season if it comes to that. But until then, I’m going to be scoreboard watching and trying to figure out which pitcher the Yankees will face. Here are the most likely candidates in order of who I would love the Yankees to face to who I’m petrified at even the thought of them.

1. Kyle Gibson
Where do I sign up for this? He’s the stereotypical right-handed Twins pitcher that has a record right around .500, an ERA right around 4.00 and is just plain average. In 10 1/3 innings against the Yankees this year, Gibson gave up 12 earned runs. Those aren’t average numbers, they’re horrible and they’re exactly what I’m looking for.

2. Mike Pelfrey
Pelfrey made throwing high-90s fastballs without striking anyone out a thing long before Nathan Eovaldi. The only Yankee with at least six at-bats against Pelfrey, who isn’t hitting at least .313 against him is Stephen Drew and that doesn’t matter since Drew isn’t going to be playing in the one-game playoff anyway. Here are some of the Yankees’ numbers against Big Pelf.

Brian McCann: 19-for-42 (.452)
Chris Young: 7-for-21 (.333)
A-Rod: 5-for-16 (.313)
Brett Gardner: 6-for-16 (.375)
Chase Headley: 4-for-12 (.333)
Brendan Ryan: 3-for-6 (.500)
Jacoby Ellsbury: 2-for-6 (.333)
Carlos Beltran: 1-for-3 (.333)

Some of those aren’t the greatest of sample sizes, but they’re enough to show that it’s Mike Pelfrey. The Yankees would be able to stack left-handed hitters in the lineup (like they would against righty) and the only right-handed hitter Pelfrey would see would be A-Rod. This is the Yankees’ ideal situation.

3. Tommy Milone
It’s another Twin. Even though Milone is a lefty, this is more about just facing the Twins. The Yankees beat them in four games in the 2003 ALDS. They beat them in four games in the 2004 ALDS. They swept them in the 2009 ALDS. They swept them in the 2010 ALDS. It doesn’t matter if it’s Milone pitching or Johan Santana or Francisco Liriano, my confidence is at an all-time high when the Yankees play the Twins in the ALDS.

4. Garrett Richards
Earlier this season, the Yankees rocked Richards for six runs in the first inning and he was out of the game after getting just two outs. In four career starts and one relief appearance against the Yankees, he’s 0-3 with a 6.55 ERA with all three of those losses and the four starts coming in Yankee Stadium. Give me, Garrett Richards.

5. Hector Santiago
The left-hander and first-time All-Star this season only faced the Yankees once this year and pitched 3 2/3 scoreless innings out of the bullpen in an 8-2 Yankees win. In his career against the Yankees, he’s 1-2 with a 6.30 ERA in six games and three starts with a 1.700 WHIP to go along with those ugly numbers. If it has to be a lefty, he might be the Yankees’ best option.

6. Jered Weaver
From 2010-2012, Weaver finished in the Top 5 in Cy Young voting all three years and won 20 games in 2012. Despite having a high-80s fastball, Weaver’s herky-jerky motion and control made him one of the league’s top pitchers, but I never saw him that way against the Yankees.

In 15 career regular-season starts against the Yankees, Weaver is 7-5 with a 5.83 ERA. (A-Rod is 12-for-32 with six home runs against him.) Weaver started Game 3 of the 2009 ALDS and allowed three earned runs on five hits, including three home runs, in five innings. He pitched 1 1/3 shutout innings in two relief appearances in Games 5 (1 IP) and 6 (0.1 IP).

There’s a chance he could turn back the clock and find his former self for one big game, but I’m willing to take that chance.

7. Yovani Gallardo
Gallardo just doesn’t scare me. He’s a good career with 101 wins and a 3.66 ERA, but he it wouldn’t be the worst thing if the Yankees saw him. He throws a lot of pitches and likely wouldn’t be around long in the game and there’s always the possibility of him getting wild and giving out free passes. He’s not my first choice, but he’s not my last choice, and I would be fine with the Yankees having to face him.

8. Derek Holland
The Yankees saw Holland in the 2010 ALCS when he threw 5 2/3 scoreless innings out of the bullpen for the Rangers. Since then, he became a front-end starter for the Rangers before getting hurt and missing most of last season and this season. For a hard-throwing lefty, Holland hasn’t been as good against the Yankees in the regular season as he was in the 2010 postseason with a 1-6 record and 6.59 ERA in 10 games and nine starts. It feels weird to not be scared of Holland in a situation like this, but I’m not.

9. Ervin Santana
The last time the Yankees saw Santana in the playoffs, he was a reliever for the Angels in the 2009 ALCS and held the Yankees to one run over 5 2/3 innings in four appearances. Before that, the Yankees saw him as a 22-year-old rookie out of the bullpen starting in the second inning in Game 5 of the 2005 ALDS.

After Bartolo Colon walked Robinson Cano to lead off the second inning of Game 5 of the 2005 ALDS, Mike Scioscia called on Santana to come in to relieve Colon. Cano was then caught stealing second for the first out of the inning since Cano always thought he was much faster than he was. Santana walked Bernie Williams and Jorge Posada and then Bubba Crosby singled to score Williams. A Derek Jeter sacrifice fly scored Jorge Posada and the Yankees had a 2-0 lead in the deciding game of the series.

I thought the Yankees would continue to build on their lead and chase Santana, but instead those two runs would be all they would get until the seventh inning. Starting with a strikeout of Alex Rodriguez to end the second, Santana gave up just three hits, all singles, until Derek Jeter homered to lead off the seventh. Kelvim Escobar and Francisco Rodriguez shut the door and ended the Yankees’ season and Santana got the win to send the Angels to the ALCS.

Here’s Santana’s career postseason line against the Yankees: 11.0 IP, 10 H, 6 R, 4 ER, 6 BB, 7 K, 1 HR, 3.27 ERA, 1.455 WHIP.

They aren’t impressive numbers, but seeing Santana take the mound will bring back unwanted flashbacks of Oct. 10, 2005.

10. Scott Kazmir
Kazmir has a 3.19 career ERA against the Yankees, but in the Bronx, he hasn’t been as good. At the old Yankee Stadium, he had a 5.04 ERA in 25 innings, and at the new Yankee Stadium, he has a 5.59 ERA in 19 1/3 innings.

The Yankees saw him in the 2009 ALCS when he started Game 4 and gave up four earned runs on six hits and four walks in four innings. They saw him again in the eighth inning of Game 6 out of the bullpen for two outs and five batters.

His history against the Yankees in the Bronx hasn’t been good and his left-handed power is scary against a lefty-heavy lineup, but it wouldn’t be the worst thing if Kazmir started the one-game playoff.

11. Lance McCullers
McCullers is just a 21-year-old rookie, who has never seen the Yankees, which certainly plays into his favor given their history against pitchers they have never seen before. But he is a righty, so that helps the Yankees.

McCullers has struck out 123 in 120 innings this season, and in 21 starts, he’s only allowed more than three earned runs once. Another reason to not to want to face McCullers is that he’s allowed just nine home runs all season and the Yankees live and die with the home run. This matchup reminds me too much of Jaret Wright against the Yankees in Game 5 of the 1997 ALDS.

12. Collin McHugh
McHugh is a right-hander, so that makes me more willing to want him on the mound. However, he hasn’t been a typical right-hander against the Yankees.

June 28: 8 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 2 BB, 8 K.

Aug. 26: 6.1 IP, 5 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 2 BB, 8 K, 1 HR.

Those are some impressive numbers, mainly the strikeout numbers, and for a team that strikes out a lot to begin with, this isn’t a matchup I would feel comfortable with.

13. Phil Hughes
Remember last season when in his first season not with the Yankees Phil Hughes was making history with his walk totals and leading the league in fewest walks per nine and most strikeouts per walks. Well, Phil Hughes sucks again just like he did on the Yankees. Hughes has given up 183 hits in 154 1/3 innings, leads the league in home runs allowed with 29 and has pitched to a 4.43 ERA. So why is he this high on the list? Because I spent a lot of time writing and talking about Phil Hughes from 2007-2013 and a lot of that wasn’t exactly shining a great light on Hughes.

This spot in the rankings isn’t about talent for Hughes. It’s about all of those postseason wins for the Yankees over the Twins coupled with Hughes’ tumultuous time with the Yankees. The Yankees overcame the Angels in 2009 like the Red Sox overcame the Yankees in 2004. If the Twins are going to overcome the Yankees, why wouldn’t it be in a one-game playoff with Hughes on the mound? If he were to pitch this game and win it would be the worst kind of disaster imaginable and the darkest moment for the Yankees since losing Games 6 and 7 at home in the 2004 ALCS.

14. Colby Lewis
Colby Motherf-cking Lewis. That’s how I refer to him in my apartment. Lewis has defined mediocrity in his career, except when it comes to pitching against the Yankees. In 2008 and 2009, he was pitching in Japan. In 2010, he was beating the Yankees in Game 2 of the 2010 ALCS (5.2 IP, 6 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 3 BB, 6 K, 1 HR) and Game 6 of the 2010 ALCS (8 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 3 BB, 7 K).

Lewis has already pitched against the Yankees with their season on the line and he ended it with that dominant Game 6 performance. He has spent his career going up and down from the majors to the minors to Japan and back. He has nothing to lose and absolutely no pressure if given the ball for this game. He’s not a star and he’s not a high-priced arm, who is paid to win a game like this. He’s just a 36-year-old who led the league in losses (14) last year waiting for the chance to end another Yankees season.

15. Cole Hamels
The second-biggest pitching acquisition at the trade deadline after David Price, Hamels has seen the Yankees in the playoffs before when he pitched the pivotal Game 3 of the 2009 World Series and got embarrassed. Hamels blew a 3-0 lead at home, gave up a two-run home run to A-Rod and a game-tying RBI single to Andy Pettitte(!) and lasted just 4 2/3 innings, giving up five earned runs. Hamels had been pretty bad all season and had talked about just wanting the season to end a year after he was NLCS MVP and World Series MVP for the Phillies. Now he is out of Philadelphia and in Texas for the next three years and possibly four as part of almost a second career.

Hamels is a hero in Philadelphia and was already one there when he fell apart against the Yankees in the 2009 World Series because he delivered the city their first World Series win since 1980. Now he can deliver Rangers fans their first World Series ever. That’s a pretty good carrot and stick to chase.

16. Dallas Keuchel
He’s Cliff Lee 2.0. If the Yankees see him on next Tuesday, it’s about as close to a guaranteed loss as you can get in this unpredictable game. The Yankees have enough trouble hitting left-handed pitching as is, but when you mix in the fact that they can’t take their walks and have to swing at quality strikes in the zone, it’s a recipe for disaster.

Keuchel has pitched twice against the Yankees this season and here are his lines:

June 25: 9 IP, 6 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 12 K.

Aug. 25: 7 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 9 K.

If you can’t do simple math, that’s no runs and 10 baserunners over 16 innings and 21 strikeouts.

Last year, Keuchel wasn’t as good as he is this year and even then he pitched once against the Yankees: 8 IP, 7 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 0 BB, 5 K.

If you want to relive Game 1 or Game 5 of the 2009 World Series or Game 3 of the 2010 ALCS then you should want the Yankees to see Keuchel in the wild-card game. If you’re a Yankees fan, he’s the last thing you want to see.

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Blogs • Monday Mentions • Yankees

Sep 28, 2015

Monday Mentions: Bad Pitching, Hitting, Managing and Contracts

The good news is that the Yankees are going to the playoffs for the first time in three years. The bad news is they’re going to be in the one-game playoff.

Joe Girardi

The Yankees are going to be hosting the one-game playoff next Tuesday thanks to what happened last week in Toronto. The good news is that they’re going to the playoffs for the first time in three years. The bad news is they’re in the one-game playoff. The worse news is if they win the one-game playoff, they’re likely going to have to go to Toronto and not Kansas City for the first two games of the ALDS.

Here is another installment of “Monday Mentions” focused on questions and comments from Twitter about what happened over the last week to the Yankees.

I’m a Chasen Shreve fan, so it’s hard for me to talk badly about him, considering he was good for and only recently fell apart. I’m not sure if it’s fatigue or that the league has adjusted to him or a combination of the two, but something is certainly off with him. Look at these two pitching lines from him:

First 50 appearances: 53.1 IP, 33 H, 12 R, 11 ER, 27 BB, 60 K, 6 HR, 1.86 ERA, 1.125 WHIP.

Last seven appearances: 4.1 IP, 11 H, 6 R, 6 ER, 5 BB, 4 K, 3 HR, 12.46 ERA, 3.695 WHIP.

The guy was lights out for nearly the entire season and helped save the bullpen and essentially the summer when Andrew Miller was on the disabled list. Outside of Shreve and Dellin Betances, and I guess Justin Wilson, there was no one and I mean no one else who could get an out in the bullpen. That’s when Esmil Rogers and David Carpenter were still being asked to pitch regularly. Here’s to hoping Shreve bounces back quickly and these last seven appearances goes down as nothing more than a bad stretch at a bad time.

https://twitter.com/Thereal_ktex/status/646513736316923905

After playing in the one-game playoff, the next scariest part of the postseason is that Joe Girardi will sit down and try to decide which pitchers not named Masahiro Tanaka, Luis Severino, Michael Pineda, CC Sabathia, Andrew Miller, Dellin Betances and Justin Wilson he is going to carry in the playoffs. After those seven, there really isn’t anyone worthy of a spot, but five or six more pitchers are going to make it.

If the Yankees win the one-game playoff and reach the ALDS and trail in any of those games are in any of the games in the postseason at all, Girardi needs to realize the game is not lost. You would think this would be obvious, but in the 2011 ALDS, he brought in Luis Ayala twice before bringing in David Robertson once, in games the Yankees started to mount comebacks in. In the 2009 World Series, he brought in Brian Bruney and Phil Coke into the ninth inning of Game 1 and they gave up two runs to increase their deficit from 4-0 to 6-0. In the bottom of the ninth, the Yankees had two on with no outs to start the inning. They only scored one run, but they were one swing away from being back in the game. Don’t bring B and C and D relievers into a playoff game. The division was already lost partly because of this.

https://twitter.com/MattyinMaine/status/646467891886452736

I never wanted Jacoby Ellsbury. I wrote about it the second Robinson Cano signed with the Mariners and the Yankees turned around and threw their Cano money at Ellsbury. It was the exact type of signing the Yankees preached about avoiding in the future because they were going through the effects from the contracts given to Alex Rodriguez, Mark Teixeira and CC Sabathia and what they had previously endured with Jason Giambi. But that doesn’t mean I want to call Jacoby Ellsbury “The Thief”. I would much rather call him something that resembles him earning his $130,511.46 per game.

Outside of one great season in Boston, Ellsbury has been Brett Gardner. You could even say Gardner has been better than him. So why did the team give Gardner $13 million a season and give Ellsbury $21.1 million per season? They essentially bid against themselves since the Red Sox supposedly didn’t even make an offer to Ellsbury and none of the other big spenders were about to give that kind of money to a player whose entire game is based on speed and who is on the other side of 30.

It’s not out of the question that Ellsbury was given the worst contract in Yankees history. Everyone will always point to Carl Pavano, but he made his entire deal in less than two years of Ellsbury’s, and Ellsbury’s is a seven-year deal. If he’s this bad and this unproductive and this injury prone as a 32-year-old center fielder, what exactly is he going to be when he’s 36 and 37?

Hey, if me calling Ellsbury “The Thief” and Chase Headley “The Bum” could in any way turn around their seasons with a week to go and the one-game playoff waiting next Tuesday, I will gladly create a negative name for every player on the team. Though it will be hard to think of one for Dellin Betances and Andrew Miller.

I gave Chase Headley the nickname “The Bum” recently because he perfectly fits the description of a “bum.” Well, so does Jacoby Ellsbury, but he’s already “The Thief,” so I have to spread the names around.

I remember the rumors that Headley’s agent started that he had an offer for five years and $65 million on the table. I know this was a rumor and never actually a real offer because his agent wouldn’t have had time to leak this number to the media because Headley would have been signing it as fast as humanly possible. Headley received four years and $52 million from the Yankees because they were desperate for a third baseman and there was nowhere else to turn on the free-agent market. If the team willing to spend the most money needed to fill a position and they gave you one year and $13 million less than you reportedly were offered, well, it never happened.

Headley has been horrible. He hasn’t hit for average, he hasn’t fit for power, he has played some of the worst defense in the league, he has no speed and his throws are wild. Is there an opposite of a five-tool player because that’s what Headley is.

https://twitter.com/Shane_Corey/status/646854052203102208

Joe Girardi definitely had a hand in the Yankees losing the division over the last week-plus when he turned to Triple-A relievers and made questionable decisions in the biggest games of the season. But for as bad as Girardi has been recently and for as much as I have crushed him, there are two real reasons why the Yankees lost the division:

Chris Capuano
The Yankees gave Capuano $5 million to return this season after he pitched to a 4.25 ERA in 65 2/3 innings last year for them (after he was released by the last-place Red Sox on July 1). You know who else got a one-year, $5 million deal? Stephen Drew. (We’ll get to him.) I guess a one-year, $5 million deal is the going rate for pitchers and players that aren’t good and that no one else wants. I’m pretty sure neither of those players was going to get that much money from any other team in baseball.

But it’s not about the money with Capuano. It’s about the fact that he was given three starts in May and lost all of them. And then he was brought into an extra-inning game against the Nationals on June 10 and lost that. And then in his next and what was his last start (to this point), he gave up five earned runs and got only two outs in the first inning in Texas, but luckily, the offense backed him with a 21-run game.

Second Base
All season we had to watch Stephen Drew and Brendan Ryan struggle to get base hits and at times struggle to field despite supposedly playing because of their defense. Everyone in the world had a theory as to why the two were being given unlimited chances to succeed while Rob Refsnyder kept on playing in Triple-A. Eventually, I gave up and just figured there was no chance Refsnyder would be given another chance, even after September call-ups, and had to settle for the idea he would have to win the job in spring training next year (though he should have won the job in spring training this year). Then, with a postseason berth on the line, Refsnyder started a game, and another one and another one and kept on starting. Between Refsnyder against left-handed pitchers (and sometimes against right-handed pitchers) and Dustin Ackley against right-handed pitchers, the Yankees suddenly had an unacceptable Major League platoon and weren’t giving up an out every time that spot came up in the order.

Now Ackley hadn’t been on the team all season and once he was traded to the Yankees at the deadline he instantly went on the disabled list after about 15 minutes. But Refsnyder has been with the organization and wasn’t allowed to play nearly the whole season until the stretch run with the team trying to clinch a playoff spot? How does that make any sense? If the Yankees really wanted him to wait until next season, they would be giving him at-bats here and there over these final weeks to continue to get his feet wet in the majors. But to make him the starting second baseman as part of a platoon with Ackley, while Drew and Ryan continue to sit goes against everything we have been led to believe by the Yankees this season.

Now that #GiveRobTheJob has worked and Capuano no longer hurts the team as a member of the rotation and barely a member of the bullpen, the Yankees are a better team. But they could have been this team all season and because they weren’t, they have to play in the one-game playoff.

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Blogs • Yankees

Sep 24, 2015

The One-Game Playoff Survival Kit

I have come up with a survival kit to get through the one-game playoff and the potential letdown of the one-game playoff.

Masahiro Tanaka

The day that Major League Baseball announced there would be a five-team playoff format with a one-game playoff for the wild card, I began to worry. I knew at some point this new system would backfire and force the Yankees into nerve-racking wild-card situation, and after Wednesday’s 4-0 loss to the Blue Jays, it’s official: the Yankees are going to the one-game playoff.

I have long been afraid of the game that’s going to take place at Yankee Stadium (if the Yankees don’t blow this lead as well) in 12 days. One game to determine the Yankees’ season. One game to decide if they will go on to play the Royals (or Blue Jays if they keep winning) in the ALDS, or if they will go home like the other 10 postseason-less AL teams after playing just one postseason game. If the game is anything like Tuesday and Wednesday in Toronto, I’m not sure if I’ll make it mentally, physically or emotionally. That’s why I have come up with a One-Game Playoff Survival Kit to get through the one-game playoff and the potential letdown of the one-game playoff.

Oxygen Tank and Mask

Oxygen Tank

This is the most important item to have. Between panic attacks and hyperventilating, breathing into a brown paper bag isn’t going to cut it. I figure the one-game playoff will about three hours. That means I will need six 30-minute tanks to get through it. If it goes past three hours, it will probably have gone to extra innings and that means I will probably have passed out, so I won’t need additional tanks.

Bottles of Water

Poland Spring

If the Yankees lose the one-game playoff, I plan on going off the grid and into hiding for an extended period of time because the season will be over and the Mets’ postseason won’t have even started yet. Since I don’t plan on leaving my bunker indefinitely, I’m going to need water and a lot of it to stay alive.

Flashlight and Batteries

Flashlight and Batteries

I would like to think there will be light or electricity wherever I’m hiding, but you never know. Flashlights and batteries are always recommended in planning survival for natural disasters and after blowing an eight-game division lead and losing (if it happens) the one-game playoff, well that’s basically a natural disaster.

Old Cell Phone

Cell Phone

I won’t be watching cable or going on the Internet or using technology of any kind and I will be cutting off my connection to the world. However, I might need to make a call here or there in the event of an emergency, so a flip phone that doesn’t have Internet capabilities will work.

Clif Bars

Clif Bars

I’m not even sure if I’ve had one of these. If I have, I’ve had only one or part or one or a bite of one. They might taste awful for all I know, but I know they don’t go bad and astronauts eat them in space, so if they’re good enough for space, they’re good enough for me.

Cliff Lee Sad Songs Playlist

lee
There’s a good chance the Yankees face the Astros in the one-game playoff, and if that happens, the Yankees are most likely going to face Dallas Keuchel. In two starts against the Yankees this season, Keuchel is 2-0 with this pitching line: 16 IP, 9 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 21 K. Keuchel is Cliff Lee 2.0 against the Yankees and this means the Astros need to not be in the one-game playoff.

The songs I used to cope with Cliff Lee choosing the Phillies over the Yankees in 2010 will help me deal with another enormous disaster. But once I have let all of the sad emotions run their course, I will need a pick-me-up and that is …

Christmas Music

Frank Sinatra

I’m against listening to Christmas music outside of Christmas season, but Christmas music puts me in the best mood, so I’m all for breaking my own rule to overcome potential heartbreak and devastation.

2009 Yankees World Series DVD

2009

Six years feels like forever. It might as well have been 60 years at this point. The 2010 ALCS loss thanks to Cliff, who should have been a Yankee. The 2011 ALDS loss thanks to no one getting a hit with the bases loaded in Game 5. The 2012 ALCS loss thanks to Mark Teixeira, A-Rod, Curtis Granderson and Nick Swisher. The 2013 and 2014 seasons thanks to injuries. 2009 was a long time ago, so it’s time relive it.

The Last Night of the Yankee Dynasty by Buster Olney

The Last Night of the Yankee Dynasty

Sure, the title sounds depressing, but the book actually takes you through the creation of the most recent Yankees dynasty. And when you’re stuck watching a team that includes Jacoby Ellsbury and Chase Headley, reading about and remembering a better time is necessary.

Alcohol … Any Kind

Alcohol

Beer, wine, whiskey, gin, rum, vodka, tequila, Twisted Tea, wine coolers, you name it and I will be sure to have it in stock to get through this. I have never been someone to just drink a glass of straight whiskey or tequila, but I think that’s going to have to change within the next two weeks.

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Blogs • Yankees

Sep 24, 2015

The AL East Is Over

The Yankees needed to win two out of three in Toronto to have a chance at the division, but they didn’t and now the race for the division is over. The Yankees are going to be a wild-card team.

Alex Rodriguez

Wednesday and Thursday night felt like playoff games. The Yankees had two games remaining against the Blue Jays with a 3.5-game deficit in the AL East with 13 games left in the season. Both games were must-win games for the Yankees when it came to winning the division with Tuesday being Game 6 of a playoff series they were trailing 3-2 in and Wednesday being Game 7 if they were to win on Tuesday. Lose either game and the AL East would be over.

The Yankees won on Tuesday after blowing a 2-0 lead and a 3-2 lead thanks to a Greg Bird three-run home run in the 10th inning. Joe Girardi used Justin Wilson (seven pitches), Dellin Betances (20 pitches) and Andrew Miller (42 pitches) to pitch the last four innings after Luis Severino gave the team an impressive six-inning, two-run effort, setting the stage for an AL East Game 7 on Wednesday night.

I didn’t want Ivan Nova to pitch Wednesday’s game, but there wasn’t another option. After Nova’s return sent Adam Warren to the bullpen, Nova’s incompetence sent Warren back to the rotation, so he wasn’t an option for the game, and with Masahiro Tanaka nursing a hamstring injury and Nathan Eovaldi being shut down, Nova won the start by default. But like that John Sterling saying goes, 11 days after Nova couldn’t get through two innings against the Blue Jays, there he was putting up zero after zero against them in Toronto with the chance to win the division over the final two weeks of the season.

With two out and no one on in the sixth, Nova’s 110th pitch of the night was a ball and Russell Martin went to first on a six-pitch walk. I told my girlfriend, “That’s it for him,” and sure enough, YES panned to Joe Girardi walking up the dugout steps. Girardi went to the mound and took the ball from Nova, who looked as good as he did in Game 1 (but kind of Game 2) of the 2011 ALDS against the Tigers, and then Girardi ruined the game.

First, Girardi gave the ball to James Pazos, who has faced 14 Major League batters in his career, to face the left-handed hitting Ryan Goins. On an 0-2 pitch, Goins ripped a line-drive single to center and Martin ran to third. After four pitches, Pazos was pulled.

Next, Girardi went to Caleb Cotham, the 27-year-old rookie, who has allowed 11 hits (two home runs) and five earned runs in eight career Major League innings, to face Yankee killer Kevin Pillar. On the first pitch, Pillar singled up the middle, Martin scored to give the Blue Jays a 1-0 lead and Goins went to second. Cotham stayed in to face the Blue Jays’ No. 9 hitter Ezequiel Carrera and he walked him on six pitches. He finally got out of the inning when he got Ben Revere to fly out to left on a 2-0 pitch though if a lesser defender than Brett Gardner had been out there, it might have been a bases-clearing double or triple.

The Yankees were unable to score in the top of the seventh, despite having two on and two out for Dustin Ackley, who hit a line drive right to Pillar in center. The Yankees had still been held scoreless and trailed 1-0, but Marcus Stroman’s pitch count was at 95 and the Blue Jays would have to turn the game over to the their shaky pen and the one flaw of their team, which had blown the game night before and had blown a three-run lead to the Yankees in Toronto in August.

Due up for the Blue Jays in the seventh were AL MVP Josh Donaldson, Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion. Three right-handed hitters and the heart of the best order in the entire league. In an ideal world, which reliever would make the most sense to face them? Betances, obviously. But unfortunately, we don’t live in an ideal world. We live in Girardi’s world where relievers have set innings and because Miller was unavailable, Betances was the closer for the night and ninth inning was his and maybe an out in the eighth inning. But not the seventh inning. Not the inning that made the most sense for the best right-handed reliever in the world to face three of the best right-handed hitters in the world in a row. Instead of Betances, Girardi brought in Andrew Bailey, who has thrown five innings in the Major Leagues since July 12, 2013. In the last 26-plus months, Bailey has faced 22 hitters in the majors, yet here he was being asked to hold a one-run deficit against the best 2-3-4 in the majors.

Donaldson crushed a 1-1 pitch to left field for his 40th double of the season to lead off the inning before Bailey got Bautista to ground out for the first out of the eighth. With Donaldson on third and one out, I thought it made the most sense to intentionally walk Encarnacion and then bring in Wilson to face Justin Smoak, which would force Smoak to turn around and hit from the right side. I thought Girardi was on the same page as me when he called for the intentional walk of Encarnacion, but then he left Bailey in.

The move worked out momentarily as Bailey struck out Smoak with Encarncion stealing second on the swinging third strike. Two on and two out for Russell Martin, the former Yankees catcher, who they let leave after the 2012 season because they felt Francisco Cervelli could be their catcher of the future, and who has played in the postseason every year (and will again this year) since leaving the Yankees, while they haven’t played in it once since he left. Martin fell behind 1-2, but after working the count to 2-2, he got a 94-mph fastball from Bailey right down the middle and he turned it around and ended the Yankees’ division hopes in one swing.

Outside of the All-Star break, the 2015 Yankees have been together and playing together since mid-February, more than seven months ago. And after those more than seven months that included the six-week spring training and now 151 regular-season games, it was James Pazos, Caleb Cotham and Andrew Bailey, who have now pitched a combined 17 innings for the Yankees, that decided their 2015 postseason fate.

How could Girardi let those three pitchers decide the biggest game of the season? According to what Girardi told reporters after the game, he was planning to use Justin Wilson in the eighth and Dellin Betances in the ninth with Andrew Miller unavailable. But how is it possible that Girardi managed for a situation that never presented itself and never actually existed in the biggest game of the season? How is that he was managing ahead in a tie game and then a game the team was trailing in? How could he play for the next inning with the division hanging in the balance in the inning right in front of him?

Maybe I shouldn’t care that the Yankees aren’t going to win the East and won’t go straight into the ALDS. Girardi and Brian Cashman clearly don’t. Girardi made that clear with his pitching moves on Wednesday, and Cashman made it clear the other day when he said he didn’t care how the Yankees got into the playoffs, but just that they got in. It was a fitting comment from the general manager of a team that made no trade deadline moves other than to acquire Dustin Ackley and whose team blew an eight-game lead since the deadline. It’s hard to blame Cashman for saying, at this point, that he is content with a wild-card berth since Cashman saying he would be disappointed if the team didn’t win the East would be him saying he’s disappointed in himself after the Yankees gave away their division lead in less two weeks in August. So of course he acted as though the wild-card berth is just as good as winning the division.

The wild-card berth is just as good as winning the division if you actually win the wild-card game. Right now, the Yankees would play the Astros in the one-game playoff, but the Twins and Angels are both within 1.5 games of the Astros, so the Yankees’ opponent is anything but finalized. The best-case scenario for the Yankees if they’re able to hold on to their four-game lead for the first wild-card spot is that those three teams have to go to Game 162 or longer to figure out who the second wild-card team is, so that they can’t set up their best starter to face the Yankees.

Over the next two weeks, outside of actually clinching, the Yankees’ top priority will be to give Tanaka as much rest as possible while also keeping him sharp and lining him up to start on Tuesday, Oct. 6 at the Stadium. The Yankees aren’t catching the Blue Jays now and the focus needs to be on preparation for 12 days from now. Some people might hold on to the pipe dream that the Yankees could overcome a 3.5-game deficit in 11 games to win the East and go straight through to the ALDS, but it’s not happening.

The Yankees needed to win two out of three in Toronto to have a chance at the division and with Girardi managing Wednesday night’s game as if it were some throwaway game with a postseason berth already clinched, the race for the division is over. The Yankees are going to the one-game playoff.

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Blogs • Giants

Sep 24, 2015

NFL Week 3 Picks

The key to the picks season is surviving Week 2. A 7-9 Week 2 isn’t anything to be excited about, but it’s enough to survive, and set up a very important Week 3.

Tom Coughlin and Eli Manning

The Giants have been a losing team for a long time. They’re 0-2 right now. They were 6-10 last season. They were 7-9 in 2013, and at 6-2 in 2012 with a chance to win the NFC East, they finished 3-5. Put all of that together and you have a 16-26 record over the last 42 games over parts of four seasons with obviously no playoff appearances. Four of those 16 wins came against the Redskins as the Giants have gone 12-26 against teams not named the Redskins since Week 9 of 2012.

Tom Coughlin survived the second-half collapse of 2012 because of the Super Bowl XLII win the year before. He survived a losing season in 2013 and again in 2014 because of Super Bowl XLII and XLVI. But after this now lengthy stretch of losing, time is running out on Tom Coughlin and his Giants era, which is in its 12th year. The Giants aren’t going to fire Coughlin in the middle of the season if the losing continues and if the team is unable to compete in the wide-open and horrible NFC East, but this will be the beginning of the end of the Coughlin era if the Giants don’t start winning and change the late-game losing culture they have established.

Luckily for the Giants, at 0-2, they’re facing the one team they have been able to count for wins in recent years: the Redskins.

The key to the picks season is surviving Week 2. A 7-9 Week 2 isn’t anything to be excited about, but it’s enough to survive.

(Home team in caps)

NEW YORK GIANTS -3.5 over Washington
In any other division, at 0-2 with a divisional loss, the Giants would be in serious trouble. But in the NFC East, where the 2-0 Cowboys are without Tony Romo and Dez Bryant and the 0-2 Eagles are a disaster and the 1-1 Redskins are the Redskins, the Giants aren’t in the worst place. Sure, it would be nice if they could finish in the final minutes of the fourth quarter and be 2-0 right now, but the season isn’t over … yet. If they lose at home on Thursday Night Football to the Redskins, then yes, the season is over. Unfortunately, in the NFC East, even at 0-3, the Giants probably aren’t even out of it, but I’m going to pretend they will be.

Pittsburgh -2 over ST. LOUIS
The Steelers are getting Le’Veon Bell back in time to face the vaunted home defense of the Rams. I say “home defense” because when you go to Washington and allow 24 points and lose by 14, it doesn’t matter that you beat the two-time defending NFC champions in the season opener. Along with the Patriots, the Steelers are at the top of the AFC right now and were even before the return of Bell. Now that Bell is back and with Martavis Bryant back in two weeks, the Steelers are only going to get stronger. Even though I could care less about the Steelers, I care about the AFC having at least one or two teams that are somewhat good and could prevent the Patriots from yet another easy walk through the postseason, so that’s why I want, no I need the Steelers to be good.

MINNESOTA -2.5 over San Diego
The Chargers opened the season in San Diego against Detroit. Then they flew to Cincinnati to play the Bengals. Then they flew back to San Diego. Now they are flying back to Minnesota to play the Vikings. That’s a lot of travel in the last nine or 10 days once this game kicks off on Sunday, which will have included going three time zones east, three time zones back west and then two time zones east again in that span.

HOUSTON -6.5 over Tampa Bay
Aside from cutting Charles James in training camp and naming Brian Hoyer the starter over Ryan Mallett, Hard Knocks made me want to like the Texans. But after losing their first two games to the Chiefs and Panthers, it’s getting harder to like the Texans and believe in them. This is it for me and the Texans. They have cost me two picks already this season and if their defense can’t hold a rookie quarterback without his best receiver at full strength then I’m done with the Texans.

NEW YORK JETS -3 over Philadelphia
I originally thought if the Jets didn’t win against the Browns in Week 1 that there would be a real chance they could be 1-3 heading into their Week 4 bye. That’s the danger of trying to predict wins and losses in the NFL before the season. The Jets’ Weeks 2-4 matchups at Indianapolis, against the Philadelphia and at Miami looked like an early-season gauntlet. But in two weeks, the Colts have proven they haven’t improved since last season, the Eagles are an 0-2 mess and the Dolphins are once again all preseason hype. Now not only are the Jets not going to start the season 1-3, they might be 4-0 heading into their bye and with the Redskins on the schedule in Week 6, they might be 5-0 heading to New England. Nearly five years after we got the 9-2 Jets against the 9-2 Patriots on Monday Night Football, we might get the 5-0 Jets against the 5-0 Patriots this season.

CAROLINA -6.5 over New Orleans
I used to believe in the Saints inside the Superdome no matter what the line was. But after losing five home games last season and losing to the Buccaneers at home last week, that theory is officially over. The Saints are a bad team and they aren’t getting any better and it might be getting close to a complete change in New Orleans. The problem is the Saints have been so inconsistent and winning enough to not bottom out and force an overhaul. This season, they’re 0-2. Last season, they were 7-9. In 2013, they were 11-5 and won a playoff game. In 2012, they were 7-9. In 2011, they were 13-3 and won a playoff game. In 2010, they were 11-5 and lost their first playoff game. The Saints have had just enough success to keep their core in tact even if they haven’t been good enough to win it all since winning it all in 2009.

NEW ENGLAND -14 over Jacksonville
The only team I ever feel confident picking to cover or win in New England is the Giants. The Jaguars’ win at home against the Dolphins was nice and they seem to be finally headed in the right direction without a winning season since 2007, but this is a terrible spot for them to be in. The Patriots just went to Buffalo and put up 507 yards on the Bills’ defense and left Bills fans devastated. Now they return home where they have lost like three games in 15 years and are facing a young and inexperienced Jaguars team. The Patriots will be 3-0 heading into their bye week before going to Dallas to face the Tony Romo- and Dez Bryant-less Cowboys and then going to Indianapolis to try to hang 80 on the Colts for Deflategate. The Patriots are going to be 5-0 before their Week 7 game against the Jets and that’s the next time I will have to really think about the Patriots not covering.

BALTIMORE -2.5 over Cincinnati
The Ravens, along with the Saints and Rams destroyed survivor pools last week. I wasn’t expecting the Ravens to go to Oakland where the Bengals had ran the Raiders out of their own building a week before and lose. The Ravens are in unchartered territory under John Harbaugh at 0-2 and have to play the undefeated Bengals this week and then go to Pittsburgh on a short week next week. This is it for the 2015 Ravens this week and to think in January they were blowing two 14-point leads against the Patriots away from playing the Colts in the AFC Championship Game, which basically would have meant they were going to play in the Super Bowl.

Oakland +3.5 over CLEVELAND
After not having “that game” last week, this game is “that game” this week …

Somewhere someone who isn’t a Raiders fan or a Browns fan is going to bet on this game and watch it in its entirety. Thank about that.

Mike Pettine deciding to name Josh McCown the starting quarterback this week after Johnny Manziel led the team to a win last week is the most Browns decision ever. Josh McCown is a 36-year-old journeyman, who has never been good. He isn’t going to lead the Browns to the playoffs this year and unless Pettine knows 100 percent that his job is safe with another losing season and that he can hope Manziel will be the full-time starter next season, this decision makes no sense. Actually, it makes no sense anyway. After sitting behind Brian Hoyer last season and McCown this season, it’s not like he’s exactly learning from some former MVP or an all-time quarterback or even a decent one. Manziel continuing to sit on the bench is stunting his growth and preventing the Browns from moving on and improving. I hope the Browns are embarrassed by the Raiders.

TENNESSEE +3.5 over Indianapolis
I hate the Colts for starting Deflategate and making the last eight months unbearable after they served as a red carpet in the AFC Championship Game for the Patriots to get into the Super Bowl. So it puts a smile on my face to see Andrew Luck with five interceptions in the first two games and a very average roster around him playing that way. Maybe I will eventually have enough confidence in the Colts to pick them, and maybe that eventually is next week at home against the Jaguars, but for now, I’m selling the Colts hard just like everyone else seems to be.

Atlanta -2 over DALLAS
The Falcons in a dome outside of Georgia aren’t exactly the same as the Falcons inside the Georgia Dome, but they’re certainly better than the Cowboys without their quarterback, without their top wide receiver and their all-time tight end suffering from various injuries being so banged up he might not play.

SEATTLE -15 over Chicago
A 15-point line in the NFL is a rare occurrence. We saw it on nearly a weekly basis during the Patriots’ 2007 season, but it’s very, very, very hard to get a two-touchdown line, especially in Week 3. It takes a perfect storm of events to get a line like this, and in this instance, the perfect storm is the Seahawks being 0-2 and returning home for the first time since the NFC Championship Game and the Bears being a bad 0-2 team without their starting quarterback and top wide receiver heading to the hardest place for a road team to win in the NFL. The Seahawks are going to win this game and most likely won’t give up a single point. This line is too low.

Buffalo +3 over MIAMI
The Dolphins are the biggest frauds in the NFL. I’m sick and tired of annually hearing how this is the Dolphins year and this is the season they are going to challenge the Patriots for the AFC East. After squeaking out a win against the Redskins in Week 1, the Dolphins lost to the Jaguars in Week 2, blowing what was the easiest two-week schedule to open the season in the league. I’m now rooting against the Dolphins.

Denver -3.5 over DETROIT
I was worried about Peyton Manning before the season started and his Week 1 performance made me worry even more. Then the first half of his Week 2 performance made me worry even more. But during the second half of the Broncos’ win at Arrowhead, Manning didn’t look like his old self, but he looked like a guy that figured out how to play and win with what’s left of his arm and abilities. If he can work his magic after traveling to Kansas City on a short week to win on Thursday Night Football, he can certainly win in perfect conditions inside Ford Field against an 0-2 and headed nowhere Lions team.

GREEN BAY -7 over Kansas City
The Packers are the best team in the NFC and their come-from-behind and convincing win over the Seahawks in Week 2 made me realize the NFC is likely to run through Lambeau Field this winter. These touchdown-or-less lines for the Packers aren’t going to be around much longer with the way they’re playing, so you better get in on them before they’re gone.

Last week: 7-9-0
Season: 16-15-1

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