Keefe To The City

Oct 15, 2015

NFL Week 6 Picks

I was due for a clunker eventually and it came last week. Luckily, I still have that solid cushion.

I can’t believe it’s already Week 6 of the NFL season and that’s it’s freezing in New York and that the Giants might be able to go on a run we haven’t seen since their pre-2012 collapse and that the Mets are in the NLCS and making me hate baseball more than I thought was possible after I left Yankee Stadium following the wild-card game loss. But it’s mid-October and the season is starting to take shape and that means the perception of each team has enough of a sample size to get a real feel when it comes to the picks.

I was due for a clunker eventually and it came last week with a 5-8-1 disappointment. Luckily, my Week 4 performance gave me enough of a cushion to take some hits like that. But the cushion isn’t big enough for it to continue, so it’s time to get back on track in Week 6.

(Home team in caps)

Atlanta -3 over NEW ORLEANS
This has trap game written all over, but I’m going to have to get trapped to lose. The Superdome Saints are no more and while these teams always play tight games, which should lead me to take the points, I’m very close to putting the Saints in the

NEW YORK JETS -7 over Washington
I really thought we were going to get the undefeated Jets against the undefeated Patriots in Week 7 this season to go with the memorable Monday Night Football matchup of the two teams from the 2010 season. But the Jets ruined that when they lost to the Eagles, which also didn’t help the Giants. The Patriots have kept up their end of the bargain and they are going to do it this week as well in Indianapolis, so it’s up to the Jets this week to make it the 4-1 Jets against the 5-0 Patriots in Week 7. I have faith in the Todd Bowles Jets coming off a bye week against a Redskins that I need out of the NFC East race.

Arizona -5 over PITTSBURGH
I’m rooting for the Cardinals after they missed the playoffs two years ago with a 10-6 record while the 8-7-1 Packers got in as the NFC North champion and then had an 11-5 season last year only to have a third-string quarterback start their ROAD playoff game against the 7-8-1 Panthers. The Cardinals have a long way to go this season relying on 35-year-old Carson Palmer to stay healthy coming off a torn ACL and for 35-year-old Larry Fitzgerald to keep playing like it’s 10 years ago. The Cardinals already watched Andre Ellington miss a month and had Chris Johnson turn back the clock in his absence and they’re going to need to catch some breaks with health and performance to have a better ending in 2015 than they did in 2013 and 2014.

MINNESOTA -3 over Kansas City
I really like this Vikings team and it’s not because my girlfriend is a Vikings fan and forces me to root for them in exchange for being allowed to sleep in the bed. They are a very underrated team giving only three points at home coming off a bye and playing the 1-4 Chiefs team that has lost four straight and is one win from watching their season end with 10 games left to play. The only thing holding the Vikings back is either the decision of Mike Zimmer or Norv Turner to not let Teddy Bridgewater throw the ball more. It’s time to realize that Adrian Peterson isn’t going to carry the team the way he did in 2012 and if the Vikings want to win one of the two wild-card sports in the NFC, they’re going to need to let Bridgewater evolve this season as more than a game manager.

Cincinnati -3 over BUFFALO
OK, I’m breaking my rule about staying away from the B’s (the Bengals, Bears and Browns) this week. But in the fine print of that rule it says: “Void if EJ Manuel is the starting quarterback of the opposing team.” Well, EJ Manuel is starting for the Bills this week and that means it’s time to jump on the Bengals bandwagon. I plan on only staying for a week.

Chicago +4 over DETROIT
Two teams that should be better than they are, but aren’t. That’s been the story for these NFC North rivals for a long time now and with John Fox and Jim Caldwell as the head coaches of the two teams, I don’t expect that to change anytime soon. It will probably be a sloppy game with a lot of turnovers and a lot of undisciplined penalties and it’s for that reason that I’m taking the points.

Denver -4 over CLEVELAND
I’m scared of this one. I’m scared of what has happened to Peyton Manning. I actually went on YouTube this week to look back at Peyton highlights from his days on the Colts just to remember how he used to throw the ball and how good he used to be. Sure, his best statistical season came with the Broncos, but it was with the Colts when Peyton could still throw the ball with some zip and still throw the deep ball and still get the ball to have a tight spiral. (This led me to watching the highlights from the Colts’ 2006 AFC Championship Game comeback over the Patriots, which was magical.) I don’t have a lot of confidence in Peyton being able to cover barely-a-field-goal spread anymore, and that is scary, but I can’t willingly pick Josh McCown against the Broncos’ defense, which has become the face of the the team.

Houston +3 over JACKSONVILLE
Somewhere someone who isn’t a Texans fan or a Jaguars fan is going to bet on this game and watch it in its entirety. Thank about that.

Miami +3 over TENNESSEE
The Dolphins are bad, but they’re not “Getting 3 at Tennessee” bad. There are maybe one or two, possibly three teams in the NFL that are that bad and the Titans aren’t one of them.

SEATTLE -7 over Carolina
I think the Panthers are frauds. There I said it. They might be 4-0 and coming off a bye, but their four wins were against Jacksonville, Houston, New Orleans and Tampa Bay. Now they are heading to Seattle and to the toughest place to play in not only the NFL, but in all of the major sports, and they have to play a 2-3 Seahawks team coming off a devastating overtime loss in Cincinnati where they blew a 17-point lead. The Panthers being part of the undefeated conversation ends this weekend.

GREEN BAY -10 over San Diego
The Packers are going to be a double-digit favorite at home for the rest of the season the way they probably should have been all season, and while it’s never easy covering two-possession spreads, the Packers at Lambeau are as good as it gets when it comes to doing so. I actually feel like this line is a little low and time is running out on taking advantage of getting the Packers at 10 points or less.

SAN FRANCISCO +3 over Baltimore
Two-plus years ago this was the Super Bowl. Now it’s a joke. The 49ers are in a rebuilding phase and the Ravens are stuck in some weird phase that I don’t even know what to call it. I guess you can call it “they suck” because that’s the way to classify teams that are supposed to be good and aren’t and aren’t rebuilding and don’t really seem to have a plan in place. The Ravens aren’t supposed to be 1-4 right now (they’re actually supposed to be 0-5 if not for Josh Scobee) and I saw them being picked as potential Super Bowl champions this year. But here they are playing for their season in Week 6. Let’s hope it ends.

New England -10 over INDIANAPOLIS
I was extremely upset with myself for not investing more financially in the Patriots against the Cowboys. This time, I won’t make that mistake. The Colts are a “bad good” team and with Andrew Luck hurting and incapable of beating the Patriots, I’m expecting a double-digit win in this one.

New York Giants +3.5 over PHILADELPHIA
Everyone is talking about the Giants’ schedule for their next four games and how they have a chance to be 7-2 heading into their Week 9 game against the Patriots and have a commanding lead in the NFC East. The problem is this is the Giants we are talking about. The New York Football Giants. The team that is known for not making it easy and not being able to live up to expectations and regular-season collapses. This game isn’t going be easy even with Sam Bradford playing quarterback and DeMarco Murray still an unknown and it’s likely to be the same close game nearly every NFC East Game. And with that, I have to take the Giants.

Last week: 5-8-1
Season: 41-33-3

Blogs • Giants

Oct 9, 2015

NFL Week 5 Picks

So far this season I have avoided the one week that could ruin or destroy a picks record for the year. I’ll need to avoid it again in Week 5 where the lines are the most challenging they have been yet.

The Giants are good. They’re certainly better than their 2-2 record says they are (sorry, Bills Parcells). And if not for the still inconceivable decision making in Weeks 1 and 2, they would be 4-0 and sitting atop the NFC East with a two-game lead. Unfortunately, the Giants didn’t run out the clock on the Cowboys and didn’t try to put the Falcons away, and through 25 percent of the season, they’re tied with the Cowboys and Redskins at 2-2.

But that’s Giants football. No matter the year, the season, the players, the coaches or the front office, that’s Giants football and nothing will ever come easy. The should-have-been wins that turned into losses to the Cowboys and Falcons and the should-have-been-blowouts that turned into nerve-racking wins against the Redskins and Bills proved this team will never change. Never. All four games this season have been perfect depictions of the history of the New York Football Giants and somehow there are still 12 more to go. I don’t know where this season is going to take us, but I do know wherever it’s going, it’s going to need to be accompanied by alcohol.

I didn’t think my 13-3 pace from Week 3 would continue for the rest of the season, so I expected the kind of 7-7-1 Week 4 that occurred. So far this season I have avoided the one week that could ruin or destroy a picks record for the year. I’ll need to avoid it again in Week 5 where the lines are the most challenging they have been yet.

(Home team in caps)

HOUSTON -2 over Indianapolis
Andrew Luck missed his first career game on Sunday and now this week, on a short week, both Luck and Matt Hasselbeck are questionable for Thursday Night Football. The Texans have been bad, all three of their losses have been by at least a touchdown and they have a quarterback controversy that started in training camp and hasn’t been resolved 25 percent of the way through the season. If I knew that Luck was playing, or even Hasselbeck, I would take the Colts and feel somewhat confident in my pick despite not believing in the Colts at all. But here I am taking the team I promised myself I wouldn’t take again last week as the Falcons were scoring touchdown after touchdown after touchdown.

Jacksonville +3 over TAMPA BAY
Somewhere someone who isn’t a Jaguars fan or a Buccaneers fan is going to bet on this game and watch it in its entirety. Thank about that.

TENNESSEE +2.5 over Buffalo
How is it that the Bills are still living off their Week 1 rout of the Colts even with the Colts being outed as a fraud team? The Bills’ stock can’t be high because of what happened two weeks ago in Miami against what is now a 1-3 Dolphins team that fired their head coach this week. So the Bills are giving points on the road as a 2-2 team with their best two players (LeSean McCoy and Sammy Watkins) having missed last week and having not practiced since. The wheels are falling off a Rex Ryan team and I can’t help but think I have seen this story play out before.

BALTIMORE -6.5 over Cleveland
When the Ravens go on a run and reach the postseason to increase the chances of an 0-3 team reaching the postseason, we can only thank Josh Scobee for keeping the Ravens alive. Scobee missed two field goals in Week 4, which led Mike Tomlin to not trust him in overtime, and ultimately led to a Ravens game-winning field goal. Now Scobee is no longer a Steeler after missing two field goals in the Steelers’ Week 1 loss to the Patriots and two more against the Ravens. The Ravens’ season should be over, but it’s not, and now they play the Browns and 49ers back-to-back and will be 3-3 heading into Monday Night Football at Arizona in Week 7.

ATLANTA -7.5 over Washington
Last week I said, “I don’t really think the Falcons are good,” and then they went out and put up 48 on the Texans. Now putting up 48 on the Texans might not be as impressive as it would have been before the season started when people thought the Texans’ defense would be among the best in the league, but 48 is 48, and 4-0 is 4-0. Now that the Redskins are 2-2 and very much alive in the NFC East, I now need to spend time and energy rooting against them, and I won’t have to spend so much of either if the Falcons can take care of business at home once again.

KANSAS CITY -9 over Chicago
The Chiefs have lost three straight games and they have given up 105 points in those three games. Now they return home with their season on the line and the gift of the Bears coming to Arrowhead.

New Orleans +5 over PHILADELPHIA
Like the Ravens, the Saints’ winless season was saved in primetime with an 80-yard touchdown in overtime moments after they let Brandon Weeden march down the field and pick their defense apart the way Tony Romo did to the Giants on Sunday Night Football in Week 1.

GREEN BAY -9.5 over St. Louis
I was scared that I wasn’t doing enough financially to take advantage of the Packers’ early-season lines. Sure, the Packers haven’t blown out any team yet with wins of 8, 10, 10 and 14, but they have covered all four of their games so far, and I figured Vegas would start to increase Packers’ lines, especially home ones, enough that it would make people question whether or not they should take the Packers. They didn’t.

Seattle +3 over CINCINNATI
Even though the Bengals are 4-0 and even though their defense has held opponents to 24-or-less points in every game and even though the Seahawks could be 1-3 if the Monday Night Football officials new the rules of the sport they are officiating and even though Marshawn Lynch is questionable and even though Russell Wilson has a fumbling problem, I’m still taking the Seahawks here. Why? Because I made a promise to myself to stick to the “Just Say No to the B’s” campaign.

Arizona -3 over DETROIT
The Lions are 0-4, and if not for an incorrect call on Monday night, their season could have been saved. But their season is over. The Lions return home as a team that is on its way to making it impossible to know how to properly pick their Thanksgiving Day game and they’re returning home to face a Cardinals team that was embarrassed last week and will be looking to avenge a sloppy loss.

NEW ENGLAND -9.5 over Dallas
The Patriots off a bye week against a team without their quarterback and star wide receiver. That’s it. That’s all you need to know.

Denver -5 over OAKLAND
Since Peyton Manning went to the Broncos, the team has been about him and the offense, and in this day and age, that’s exactly what you want your team to be about: the quarterback and his receivers. But the 2015 Broncos are more about their defense than they are their offense, which is saying a lot about a team that has Manning (even at 39), Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders. The Broncos have allowed 69 points in four games this season and 14 of those points came off Manning passes that were intercepted and returned for touchdowns, so the Broncos’ defense has really allowed 55 points in four games. I don’t think the Raiders’ offense is ready for this matchup.

NEW YORK GIANTS -7 over San Francisco
The Giants don’t suck. That’s been a big difference in having to turn to football, and hockey, now that the Yankees’ season is over. The last two miserable Yankees seasons ended only to have me watch two bad Giants teams try to fill my sports void, but this year, my post-Yankees sports life has so far given me a Rangers’ opening-night win in Chicago over the Blackhawks and now that that needs to carry over into the weekend and the Giants’ second-to-last primetime game of the season.

Aside from their Week 1 win over the Vikings in which the Vikings looked like an unprepared and lost team, the 49ers have lost three straight and have been outscored 101-28 with just 10 points scored in their last two games combined. They are a bad team that keeps resting their potential star running back, hoping to save him for a rainy day that likely isn’t going to come this season. If the Giants are as good as the near 4-0 start they could have gotten off to, then this will be the fourth straight game the 49ers that will leave people wondering how a Colin Kaepernick-led team was on the doorstep of winning the Super Bowl and now they are … well, this.

SAN DIEGO -3.5 over Pittsburgh
Forever, I wrote about the Inside the Superdome Saints and the Outside the Superdome Saints. Well, those Saints don’t exist anymore. There’s just the Saints now and they’re not good not matter where they play. But the Chargers seem like they have taken over the responsibility of being a completely different team at home and on the road, and more specifically, in the Pacific Time Zone and outside the Pacific Time Zone.

Last week: 7-7-1
Season: 36-25-2

Podcasts • Rangers

Oct 7, 2015

Podcast: Ryan Brandell

The Barstool Sports Blackhawks blogger joined me to talk about Rangers-Blackhawks.

Hockey is back and the Rangers are back. After what felt like an incredibly short three-plus month offseason following the Rangers’ Game 7 loss in the Eastern Conference finals, the Rangers begin the 2015-16 season on Wednesday night in Chicago where the Blackhawks will raise their Stanley Cup banner.

Ryan Brandell of Barstool Sports Chicago (known as “Chief” on that site), joined me to talk about the Blackhawks winning the Cup for the third time in six years, how you get through the regular season when you’re used to winning in the postseason, the turnover of the Blackhawks’ roster, how the city will watch the banner raised along with the Cubs’ wild-card game and the current sports landscape in Chicago.

Blogs • Yankees

Oct 6, 2015

The Wild-Card Game: Judgment Day

I went to bed on Monday night with a Christmas Eve-type feeling. That’s the feeling I haven’t gotten in three years.

I went to bed on Monday night with a Christmas Eve-type feeling because that’s the feeling I get the night before the Yankees’ first postseason game. That’s the feeling I haven’t gotten in three years.

All of the hours spent watching, writing, talking, reading and listening about this team all makes it worth it on Tuesday night. Well, that is if the Yankees win.

My confidence level for the wild-card game isn’t good. The Yankees will face the one pitcher (outside of 2009-2010 Cliff Lee showing up via the 4 train in the Bronx again) that I didn’t want them to face. They will face Cliff Lee 2.0, a pitcher who has dominated and beaten them twice without allowing a run in 16 innings this season. The only glimmer of hope in beating Dallas Keuchel is that he’s going to be pitching on three days rest for the first time in his professional career. Outside of that, the only positive I can get out of the Yankees and their left-handed heavy lineup against the best left-handed in the American League is looking at his line from Sept. 16 against Texas.

4.2 IP, 11 H, 9 R, 9 ER, 0 BB, 5 K, 3 HR.

I’m not sure what happened that day. I have no idea how Keuchel gave up 11 hits or nine runs or three home runs or how left-handed hitters Rougned Odor and Prince Fielder hit home runs off of him. That game, nearly three weeks ago, is the only thing keeping me from feeling any less confident about this game than I already do.

Masahiro Tanaka is going to have to be perfect or close to it on Tuesday night. I would gladly sign up for two runs against Keuchel right now and that means one run against Tanaka to hand the ball to the bullpen and let Dellin Betances and Andrew Miller get this season to the ALDS.

It took two months of bad baseball for the Yankees to end up in this spot when they had a seven-game divison lead (and eight-game lead over the Blue Jays) the week of the trade deadline. They chose not to mortgage the future of the team for a run this season, watched the Blue Jays completely turn over their roster for the better and run away with the division, settled for a wild-card berth and backed into the first wild-card spot in the most depressing way possible. None of that matters now. What matters is one game to extend the season and to get to where this team would be pre-2012 in the old playoff format: in the ALDS.

I wasn’t a fan of the new postseason format when it was implemented and am still not today. The only thing the new format has done for Yankees is given us a few extra “meaningful” games in 2013 and 2014, which were just a tease to get excited about two teams we all knew weren’t going anywhere. And now all it’s gotten us is a one-game playoff against the Yankees’ most-feared pitcher. Maybe someday the second wild card will actually benefit the Yankees and be the reason they reached the postseason, but in four years it hasn’t and this year it hurts them, so I’m still against it.

There’s a good chance the Yankees wouldn’t be in this spot if they never let Chris Capuano start three games in May and didn’t let Stephen Drew and Brendan Ryan get five months of at-bats that should have gone to Rob Refsnyder. They likely wouldn’t be in this spot if Joe Girardi didn’t keep handing the ball to Esmil Rogers or turn to Branden Pinder and Caleb Cotham, or think it was 2009 or 2010 when he would call on Andrew Bailey. But they are in this spot and now they have to get out of it.

Two months of being a .500 baseball team put the Yankees in this spot though on Tuesday night they have the chance to erase questionable managerial and front office moves and the decision to stand pat (aside from acquiring Dustin Ackley) at the trade deadline. They have the chance to make everyone forget about their horrible August and September and their embarrassing finish. They have the chance to win their first playoff game at Yankee Stadium since Game 5 of the 2012 ALDS and get back to the ALDS for the first time since that season. They have a chance to begin the kind of run the Royals went on last season and go to Kansas City to continue that run.

The Yankees have a chance to change how this season will be remembered with a win on Tuesday night. But to do so, they will have to get through Dallas Keuchel.

I think I’m going to throw up.

Blogs • Giants

Oct 1, 2015

NFL Week 4 Picks

After surviving Week 2, Week 3 was one for the history books, but now the bar has been set to try to continue to produce equally successful weeks. It’s not an easy job, but someone has to do it.

The good part about your team playing on Thursday Night Football is that you only have to wait four days until the team’s next game. The bad part about your team playing on Thursday Night Football is that you then have to wait 10 days until they play again. But that’s not necessarily bad for the Giants since their early-season Thursday game serves as nearly a bye week, giving them time to rest and prepare for the Bills.

The Giants are in a perfect position to go on a run and take control of the NFC East with Tony Romo and Dez Bryant out for a couple months, the Eagles having no identity and a bad offense with a greatly underachieving DeMarco Murray and the Redskins being the Redskins. After the Week 1 meltdown in Dallas, I figured that loss would eventually mean the Giants would have to battle for a wild-card berth, but the NFC East once again is proving to be a gongshow for another season, and that’s exactly what the Giants need.

Last week was a memorable one. A 13-3 week with the picks that included a Giants win over the Redskins is about as good as it gets when it comes to the always unpredictable NFL. After surviving Week 2, Week 3 was one for the history books, but now the bar has been set to try to continue to produce equally successful weeks. It’s not an easy job, but someone has to do it.

(Home team in caps)

PITTSBURGH +3 over Baltimore
Michael Vick doesn’t really want to play football anymore. He wants to collect a paycheck to practice during the week and then watch Steelers games from the sidelines on Sundays (and sometimes Mondays and a Thursday). It was the same story when he was with the Jets and when he finally had to go into a game, he looked like someone who hadn’t prepared to play an actual snap for the season. But even for as bad as Vick has looked and has been, the Ravens are worse. They are 0-3 for the first time under John Harbaugh, their defense has been embarrassed and their offense has been non-existent. Aside from all of that, you always take the points in Steelers-Ravens games. It’s just the smart thing to do.

Last season, the Ravens won 26-6 and the Steelers won 43-23. In 2013, the Steelers won 19-16 and the Ravens won 22-20. In 2012, the Ravens won 13-10 and the Steelers won 23-20. In 2011, the Ravens won 35-7 and 23-20. In 2010, the Ravens won 17-14 and the Steelers won 13-10. In 2009, the Ravens won 20-17 in overtime and the Steelers won 23-20. In 2008, the Steelers won 23-20 in overtime and 13-9.

Last season was an anomaly, but including last season, in the last 14 meetings between the two teams, 10 of the games have been decided by three points or less and eight of them have been decided by exactly three points. Even without Ben Roethlisberger, you have to take the Steelers at home getting 3.

New York Jets -2 over MIAMI
Last week, I said the following about the Jets.

Now not only are the Jets not going to start the season 1-3, they might be 4-0 heading into their bye and with the Redskins on the schedule in Week 6, they might be 5-0 heading to New England. Nearly five years after we got the 9-2 Jets against the 9-2 Patriots on Monday Night Football, we might get the 5-0 Jets against the 5-0 Patriots this season.

So how did they repay my positivity about them? By losing at home to the Eagles, which screwed up the NFC East even more and hurt the Giants, in a game that included one of the dumbest decisions I have ever seen by Brandon Marshall on an unnecessary lateral that turned into a fumble. It felt like the same old Jets and after that fumble I expected the camera to pan to the sidelines and for Rex Ryan to be standing there.

But Rex isn’t there and Todd Bowles is and it was his first bad game as Jets head coach even if he couldn’t control Marshall’s decision making or Ryan Fitzpatrick’s ineffectiveness. And even thought the Jets looked awful in a home loss, they won’t spiral out of control the way they would have if Rex were still there. That’s partly because of Bowles and partly because the Dolphins are atrocious.

So far the Dolphins barely got past the Redskins (who are 1-2) in Week 1, lost to the Jaguars (who are 1-2 and lost to the Patriots 51-17) in Week 2 and were run out of their own building by the Bills in Week 3. Here’s what I said about the Dolphins in Week 1:

For the last few years, we have been hearing about how the Dolphins will challenge the Patriots in the AFC East and each time they have failed. This year, the Dolphins are supposed to be even better and once again challenge the Patriots and reach the postseason for the first time since 2008.

Well, the Dolphins are once again an underachieving and mediocre team, and mediocre might be generous. A week after they couldn’t win a division game at home, actually scratch that … A week after they couldn’t even compete in a division game at home, they’re now going to go across the Atlantic and beat the Jets on a neutral field. OK, sure.

Jacksonville +9 over INDIANAPOLIS
The best thing to happen in Week 3 was the Jaguars getting blown out in New England, so that this line would be made too high, and it is. The Colts are a bad team that celebrated their Week 3 win over the Titans the way they would have likely celebrated their AFC Championship win over the Patriots had they won (or even made it a game). The Jaguars aren’t good, but neither are the Colts, and for the Colts to be giving 9 points to any team after back-to-back losses to open the season and barely pulling out a two-point win in Tennessee. Despite being favorites in their first three games, the Colts have yet to cover, considering they lost two of them, and I’m continuing to sell hard on the Colts.

Houston +7 over ATLANTA
I don’t really think the Falcons are good. That isn’t exactly something normal to say about an undefeated 3-0 team with two road wins already on the season, but like saying goes, “It’s not about who you play, it’s about when you play them.” So far the Falcons got the inept Eagles at home in Week 1, the Giants’ clock management problems in Week 2 and a Tony Romo- and Dez Bryant-less Cowboys team in Week 3. The Falcons deserve credit for winning all three games and for coming from behind down multiple possessions in the last two, but those aren’t exactly impressive wins and even with Julio Jones catching everything thrown within 10 feet of him, the Falcons just aren’t anything special. They might beat the Texans and improve to 4-0, but they aren’t going to do it by blowing them out because that’s not who the Falcons are.

Carolina -3.5 over TAMPA BAY
The Panthers are the most under-the-radar 3-0 team ever. I had to check to make sure they were 3-0 because that’s how little I have heard about them and their undefeated start to the season. Even though their wins are against Jacksonville, Houston and New Orleans, they’re still wins and the Panthers have the luxury of playing in the NFC South where only Atlanta will give them any sort of competition. I might shy away from picking the Panthers if they were being talked about and hyped as much as any other 3-0 team would, but as long as the Panthers continue to go unnoticed, there’s nothing to be worried about with a potential trap line.

New York Giants +5.5 over BUFFALO
The return of Victor Cruz had me dreaming of the possibilities of Odell Beckham Jr. and Cruz being unstoppable since we have never really seen the two play together. (The duo played just one game together last season before Cruz injured his knee.) But after suffering a setback with his calf in practice on Wednesday, Cruz probably won’t play again this week in Buffalo, and if he doesn’t, he will have already missed 25 percent of the season.

On the Bills’ side, Rex Ryan told Mike Francesa on Wednesday that both LeSean McCoy and Sammy Watkins are likely out for the game. That leaves the game pretty much up to the Bills’ defense, which let the Patriots put up 507 yards against them at home, so the aura of Ralph Wilson Stadium being a touch place to play just because the Colts couldn’t do anything isn’t exactly true.

Oakland -3 over CHICAGO
When was the last time the Raiders were a road favorite? LOOK IT UP. This line feels way too low after watching Jimmy Clausen and the Bears punt on all 10 of their possessions against the Seahawks last week. I’m not sure how the Bears are ever going to score with Clausen at quarterback unless Robbie Gould starts drilling 70-yard field goals. But even then, Clausen would have to move the ball to the Bears’ 47 and I’m not sure if that’s possible. After trading Jared Allen, it’s clear the Bears are about to begin a fire sale and it has been suggested that they trade Matt Forte, who is in the last year of his contract and approaching 30. If Forte wasn’t in the last year of his contract, I would advise the Bears to make him inactive for every game for the rest of the season and save his legs for next year, but since he is, they should trade him. Why should the Bears have an elite running back? It’s like a 60-win baseball team having an elite closer. Trade Forte.

WASHINGTON +3.5 over Philadelphia
Kirk Cousins says he couldn’t sleep over his non-touchdown passes to Jordan Reed on Thursday Night Football last week. That’s good because it shows Cousins’ head is in the right place, but it’s not good because he needs his sleep to win this game.

I’m rooting for the Redskins to win because they are less of a threat to the Giants in the NFC East and a Redskins win would give Philadelphia two division losses. I want the NFC East to become a two-team race between the Giants and Cowboys and without Romo and Bryant for a while, the Giants will have the opportunity to take a commanding lead. Will they take advantage of this opportunity? Of course not. But I can dream.

Kansas City +4.5 over CINCINNATI
The old me would see this line, remember that the Chiefs are 1-2 and Ryan Mallett starting over Brian Hoyer in Week 1 from being 0-3, and remember that the Bengals are 3-0 and instantly pick the Bengals. But not the new me. Not the me that has created a “Just Say No to the B’s” campaign. Those B’s are the Bengals, Bears and Browns. So I’m saying no to the Bengals and there isn’t an amount of peer pressure that could get me to change my mind.

SAN DIEGO -7.5 over Cleveland
If you just read my rule about the B’s in the last pick then you already know. However, there is one exception to that rule and that is when Johnny Manziel starts, the Browns aren’t part of it. Johnny Football is once again on the bench, so I’m saying no to the Browns and I hope they lose in a rout.

Green Bay -9.5 over SAN FRANCISCO
Carlos Hyde ran all over the Vikings in Week 1 and had the best week of any running back in the NFL in his debut as the 49ers starter. The next week he got hurt against the Steelers and when he was ready to come back in, he was held out because the score was lopsided. Last week, due to another lopsided score, he was held out for most of the game again. This week, the 49ers are playing the best team and the best offense in the NFC. There’s a good chance we’re headed for another game in which Hyde watches from the sidelines to preserve his health and legs for future games. There are going to be a lot of games like that for the 49ers this season, but the problem is that Hyde is the 49ers offense, so without him they don’t have a chance.

DENVER -7 over Minnesota
The Vikings are 2-1 thanks to two home wins, but I didn’t like what I saw from them in their season opener on the road in San Francisco against a team that has been outscored 90-25 in the last two weeks. I don’t know how I’m supposed to take the Vikings in Denver against Peyton Manning and that defense and feel confident with a 7-point spread. I’m going to have to see Teddy Bridgewater and the Vikings offense a little more away from Minnesota before I start to back the Vikings on the road. (Sorry, Britt. Don’t worry, I like sleeping on the couch.)

ARIZONA -7 over St. Louis
The Cardinals are the real deal. Two years ago, they were a 10-win team that didn’t make the playoffs. Last season, they were a true contender in the NFC until Carson Palmer got hurt and Drew Stanton got hurt and they were left starting Ryan Lindley, who threw for 82 yards, in their playoff game at Carolina. Bruce Arians and the Cardinals deserve better and so far this season they have proven that they are at the top of the NFC with the Packers and are better than their their division rival Seahawks. I’m going to enjoy taking the Cardinals for a touchdown or less for as long as Vegas wants to give away a free pick and free money.

NEW ORLEANS -5 over Dallas
It’s the possibly Drew Brees-less Saints against the Tony Romo-less Cowboys on Sunday Night Football. NBC must be thrilled about the state of these two teams for their primetime game though probably not as thrilled as Brees was when he found out Jimmy Graham was traded to Seattle.

The Superdome Saints are no more. When you lose to Jameis Winston and the Buccaneers in the Superdome, that theory goes away. Instead the Saints are now an 0-3 team with a loss this week away from having their season over with 75 percent of the schedule remaining. If there’s any truth to the idea of a desperate team coming to play and winning a game, this is it. What better way to turn your season around than on national TV in the manic Superdome with Drew Brees returning to the field.

SEATTLE -10 over Detroit
I’m not sure if Jim Caldwell’s job is in trouble with the Lions being winless since I’m not sure how Jim Caldwell was hired to be the Lions head coach to begin with. Maybe that postseason appearance last year is enough to buy Caldwell some time, but that time might be erased in the coming weeks. After the Lions lose in Seattle, they host Arizona, Chicago and Minnesota and then go to Kansas City before their Week 9 bye. That has 1-8, maybe 2-7 at best, written all over it.

Last week: 13-3-0
Season: 29-18-1