Keefe To The City

Aug 2, 2019

Yankees Can Begin to Take Back Rivalry by Ending Red Sox’ Season

Instead of the Yankees ending the Red Sox’ season in October, I would rather the Yankees end it in August, weakening the AL playoff field and taking the Red Sox out of the postseason picture completely.

Last weekend didn’t go according to plan. The plan was for the Yankees to bury the Red Sox even more in the division standings and put their season in peril for any postseason berth. This would lead to the Red Sox possibly selling at the July 31 trade deadline and waving the white flag on the season. Instead, the Yankees lost three of four in Boston.

The Yankees’ series loss allowed the Red Sox to momentarily hold a wild-card spot in the standings. But since the Yankees’ season-salvaging win on Sunday Night Baseball, the Red Sox have lost four straight following a sweep by the Rays over the last three days, and now the Red Sox’ season is once again teetering on the brink of ending.

The Yankees hold in an insurmountable lead in the division with a nine-game loss-column lead over the Rays and a 12-game loss-column lead over the Red Sox. The Yankees don’t have to play much better than .500 for the rest of the season to easily clinch the division title, and the only thing they have to do between now and Game 162 is try to clinch home-field advantage in the playoffs, which they need to do now even more than before after what the Astros accomplished at the trade deadline.

The ideal situation for the Yankees and the postseason would be for to win the No. 1 overall seed and own home-field advantage in the AL playoffs and in a potential World Series. In this ideal situation, the Astros would get eliminated in the other ALDS and the Yankees would face an inferior Twins or Indians team in the ALCS. But to get to the ALCS, having the weakest ALDS opponent would greatly help the Yankees’ chances.

The Red Sox aren’t that weakest opponent. Over the course of the regular season, the Red Sox have proven to not be postseason-worthy, even in a five-team, two wild-card format. Their roster has performed the way it should have last season if not for the most miraculous, unexpected season in the history of baseball, the real “Impossible Dream” season. But in a short series? In a short series, the Red Sox are the last team the Yankees want to see. The deep Twins lineup, the Indians’ potential, the pesky Rays or the underrated A’s would all be more welcome first-round series than the Red Sox, who know the Yankees better than any other team and have had more than enough recent success against them. Even if the Red Sox burned Chris Sale in a wild-card win, I still don’t want to see them in a five-game series. I don’t want to see them in any postseason series.

I’m still not over what happened in the ALDS last season, and I’ll never get over the 2004 ALCS. I don’t want these traumatizing series to keep piling up, clouding my memory and tainting my baseball fandom. Yes, it would be exhilarating to end the Red Sox’ season in the postseason for the first time in 16 years and for the first time in the last three tries, but the risk isn’t worth the reward.

Instead of ending the Red Sox’ season in October, I would rather the Yankees end it in August, weakening the AL playoff field and taking them out of the picture completely. The Red Sox would then regret not selling off tradeable assets this past week and potentially be stuck empty-handed if their impending free agents leave this offseason or the opt-out clauses they handed out are exercised. If anything, it would work to the Yankees’ short- and long-term favor that they allowed the Red Sox to briefly think they were a playoff team with last weekend’s series win, only to have their season destroyed a week later. The Yankees can make this all happen this weekend.

The Red Sox’ division chances are over. Their general manger Dave Dombrowski even admitted the division standings being the reason he stood pat the deadline. If the Yankees play one-game-over-.500 baseball for the rest of the season and go 28-27, the Red Sox would have to go 37-15 to tie them. If the Yankees play at their current .636 winning percentage for the rest of the season and go 35-20, the Red Sox would have to go 44-8 to tie them. The Yankees continuing to play at their current winning percentage is certainly more than doable with 23 games remaining against the Orioles, Blue Jays, Mariners and Tigers. So yeah, the Red Sox have no chance at winning the division. (The Rays don’t either.)

The Red Sox’ only path to the postseason is by winning a wild-card berth and appearing in the one-game playoff. Right now, they are five games back for the first wild card and 3 1/2 games back for the second wild card. They are extremely close to having no chance at playing the wild-card game at home and are dangerously close to playing themselves out of contention for the second wild card as well. They are essentially one bad series from the rest of their season being nothing more than formality. One bad series against the Yankees.

It’s going to take a lot for the Yankees to regain the upper hand in the rivalry after the way the division played out in the regular season and the division series played out in the postseason last year. Simply eliminating the Red Sox from the postseason this season isn’t going to do it, but it’s a start.

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My book The Next Yankees Era: My Transition from the Core Four to the Baby Bombers is available!

Blogs • Off Day Dreaming • Yankees

Aug 1, 2019

Off Day Dreaming: Astros Operate Like Yankees Once Did

The Astros are going for it, and not just talking about going for it like the Yankees do, they’re really going for it, for the third straight season. I’m jealous of the Astros.

Today isn’t a great day to be a Yankees fan. Despite the team’s first-place standing and enormous division lead, their direct competition to win the American League went out and did everything possible to be the best team in the league. The Yankees? They added a 20-year-old minor-league pitcher.

Here are 10 thoughts on the Yankees on this off day as usual.

1. I feel the way I do when the Yankees’ season ends. The way I feel when the Yankees are depressingly walking off the field while another team celebrates around them. The way I feel when the postgame scene in the Yankees clubhouse is silence aside from players giving interviews about how they didn’t get the job done, while the postgame scene in the opposing clubhouse is victory music, champagne and beer. The way I feel when there’s no baseball for the next six months.

I realize I shouldn’t feel that since the season is far from over and the Yankees are still a first-place team with a chance to win a championship, but how can you not feel that way after the team the Astros built? Had both the Yankees and Astros done nothing, like we all initially thought at 4 p.m. on Wednesday, I would have been upset the Yankees didn’t improve their starting pitching, but I wouldn’t be distraught.

It was always going to be hard to come out of the American League in the postseason and represent the league in the World Series. Now, it seems impossible.

2. The Astros aren’t messing around. They know they’re in the middle of a championship window and they’re trying to build a dynasty, clearly not content with sitting back and having 2017 be their only championship. Over the last three seasons, they have acted like the Yankees once acted, taking on Justin Verlander’s salary, trading for Gerrit Cole, signing Michael Brantley and now trading for Zack Greinke. I’m jealous of the Astros. They’re going for it, and not just talking about going for it like the Yankees do, they’re really going for it, for the third straight season.

3. The Yankees half-assed their way to building a roster once again. They put together the best run-producing lineup in baseball and the deepest and most vaunted bullpen as well. But when it comes to their rotation, they were cheap before Luis Severino got hurt and remained cheap as James Paxton got hurt and struggled, CC Sabathia got hurt and struggled and J.A. Happ struggled. Knowing. Domingo German (who also got hurt) would be pitching this season with an innings limit also did nothing to open their wallet.

The Yankees could have addressed their rotation in the offseason by signing Patrick Corbin or Charlie Morton or once draft pick compensation was no longer attached to Dallas Keuchel. They chose not to each time, forcing themselves into a corner on deadline day. And with Marcus Stroman having been traded to the Mets and Trevor Bauer going to the Reds, the viable options dried up. The Yankees mishandled the offseason, misread the trade market and mismanaged the days leading up to and on deadline day.

4. What has been the Yankees’ goal this entire time? What has been their plan? Was it to hope Severino will eventually come back healthy sometime in August or September and be healthy enough and good enough to be the team’s No. 1 starter again for the postseason? Was it to think Paxton would eventually find himself for the first time since mid-April? Was it to pray Sabathia, in his final season, and Happ, in his age 36 season, would get better as the season progressed and the pitches and innings piled up on their veteran arms?

Brian Cashman has said countless times in his tenure as general manager that starting pitching is “the keys to the kingdom” in terms of winning a championship. But if he truly believes that (which he should) then why does he rarely construct a rotation capable of holding the keys to the kingdom? Why does he think the current Yankees rotation gives the team the best possible chance to win a championship in their current championship window? How could he feel comfortable pitting this rotation against the Astros, Twins or Red Sox in a short series?

5. The starting rotation has always been the 2019 Yankees’ glaring weakness. It was even after they traded for Paxton and brought back Sabathia and Happ. It was even more so when Severino went down in spring training and when Paxton, Sabathia and German all spent time on the injured list, and when Paxton struggled, and when Sabathia and Happ weren’t any good.

Signing Corbin, Morton or Keuchel and trading for someone prior to July 31 wasn’t going to guarantee the Yankees a championship, but it would have put them in a better position to win one. There was a time when the Yankees gave themselves every chance to put together the best possible roster. We are far removed from that time.

6. Supposedly, the Yankees were trying to add relievers in the hour leading up to the deadline when it became apparent the starting pitching market wasn’t going to work out. This was another way of the Yankees admitting their starting pitching is unreliable as they tried to acquire bullpen help to potentially further shorten postseason games. But all the elite relievers and bullpen help in the world doesn’t matter when the team manager’s doesn’t have the slightest idea on how to manage a bullpen during a game.

7. Unless Luis Severino comes back and pitches like he did in the first half of 2018 or James Paxton magically becomes the pitcher the Yankees thought they were trading for, Masahiro Tanaka is getting the ball in Game 1 of the ALDS. I have no problem with Tanaka getting the ball in Game 1, and currently want him to, because I trust him more than anyone in the postseason. It’s a problem when Aaron Boone doesn’t even trust him to go five innings against the Diamondbacks in July.

8. It’s OK to be a Cashman fan, but it’s another thing to be on board with every decision ownership or the front office makes, thinking they are never wrong. If you find yourself today defending the organization’s decision to do nothing for months to improve the starting rotation, go take a lap. Take a few laps. Maybe just keep running until the postseason starts when we can all evaluate their decision to not completely go for it in a championship window.

9. There’s a good chance both Luke Voit and Giancarlo Stanton (if he ever resumes baseball activities) will return to the team with only a couple weeks left in the regular season to get at-bats. By then, the division will be officially clinched, so the results of the games might not matter, but there’s not going to be a lot of time for two middle-of-the-order bats to get back to their normal everyday routine and comfort level at the plate. I pray the Yankees will recognize this and not bat them in the Top 5 in the lineup in the postseason if they’re not their usual selves because of their career resumes or recent resumes.

10. My expected record for the Yankees for July (by expected record, I mean a record I would be content with them having) was 13-12 and they went 14-11, one game better. In August, the Yankees have a chance to get fat again in the win column with a rather easy schedule, including 14 games against the Orioles, Blue Jays and Mariners.

My expected record for the Yankees in August is 17-13, which would give them a 85-52 with one month to play.

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My book The Next Yankees Era: My Transition from the Core Four to the Baby Bombers is available!

Podcasts • Yankees

Aug 1, 2019

Yankees Podcast: Homer Bush and John Jastremski

Former major league infielder Homer Bush joined me to talk about playing for the Yankees and the 1998 season and John Jastremski of WFAN talks about the trade deadline.

John Jastremski of WFAN joined me to talk about the Yankees’ trade deadline decisions, if the team can beat the Astros in the postseason, Aaron Boone’s bullpen management, using an opener in the playoffs and if there’s any reason to be worried about the division race.

At the 32:03 mark, former Yankees infielder and author of Hitting Low in the Zone: A New Baseball Paradigm Homer Bush joined me to talk about choosing a baseball career over football, getting traded from the Padres to the Yankees, mastering the role of a bench player, being part of the 1998 Yankees championship team and the celebrations after the World Series, getting traded to the Blue Jays, making his own return to the Yankees, being part of Old Timers’ Day and writing his book on hitting.

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My book The Next Yankees Era: My Transition from the Core Four to the Baby Bombers is available!

Blogs • Yankees

Aug 1, 2019

Yankees Once Again Didn’t Build Best Possible Roster Before Trade Deadline

This isn’t about what happened or didn’t happen on July 31. This is about the missed opportunities leading up to July 31 when the Yankees failed to address the one weakness on the team: starting pitching.

There’s a scene in the movie Heavyweights where, in regards to the state of Camp Hope, camper Gerry Garner asks camp counselor Pat Finley, “Did this place always stink this much?” Pat answers Gerry by saying, “No Gerry, this place used to stink very little. In fact, it didn’t stink at all.” Gerry replies, “Well, it does now.”

The New York Yankees are Camp Hope, and unfortunately, I feel like camp counselor Pat Finley (minus the overweight part), constantly needing to remind everyone of a time when the Yankees would do everything possible to try to win a championship. A time when saving some money wasn’t as important as trying to get to the World Series and when winning the World Series was more important than being fiscally responsible or thinking every prospect in the organization would turn into an everyday major leaguer.

The Yankees are the best team in baseball, or at least they were before 4 p.m. on Wednesday. They have the best record in the American League and are tied in the loss column with the Dodgers for the best record in baseball. They have accomplished this despite every single member of their expected everyday lineup and three-fifths of their expected rotation missing time due to injury at some point this season. They are on their way to their first division title in seven years, could possibly be the No. 1 seed in the American League playoffs, and might even have home-field advantage in a potential World Series. Despite their ability to overcome a seemingly impossible injury situation, their 103-win pace and their impressive play against the other postseason contenders, the front office still didn’t do everything it could to put the team in the best possible position to win a championship.

This isn’t about what happened, or rather didn’t happen on July 31. This is about all the missed opportunities leading up to July 31 when the Yankees failed to address the one glaring weakness on the team: starting pitching. It’s about not addressing that issue in the offseason or in the first four months of the regular season. It’s about a never-ending theme with the Yankees.

Even with Luis Severino (prior to his shoulder and subsequent lat injury), Masahiro Tanaka and James Paxton set to be in their 2019 rotation, the Yankees could have signed Patrick Corbin or even Charlie Morton to be part of their rotation. They passed.

With Severino having not thrown a pitch in 2019, Paxton having spent time on the injured list and pitching through a knee injury, CC Sabathia not being good and also landing on the injured list, J.A. Happ being ineffective and Severino’s replacement in Domingo German also landing on the injured list and pitching with an innings limit, the Yankees could have signed Dallas Keuchel with draft compensation no longer attached to him. They passed.

The Yankees passed on every money-only option to truly improve their starting pitching and then balked at the high prices on deadline day. They failed to use their greatest resource of money on starting pitching and failed to expect such demand in return shortly before and on July 31. They backed themselves into a corner where the deadline was their only option and when it didn’t play out the way they envisioned, they were left empty-handed, acquiring only a 20-year-old minor-league pitcher shortly before the league’s only trade deadline.

The Yankees have tried in recent years to build a team which can win in both the regular season and postseason by creating a super bullpen, capable of shortening games to four or five innings. The strategy nearly got them to the World Series in 2017 before the bats went quiet in Games 6 and 7 in Houston, and it might have worked in 2018 if the manager had used his best relievers with the season on the line. So far, the Yankees’ decision to focus and spend on building the best possible bullpen while piecing together a rotation filled with inconsistency and injury concerns hasn’t worked out, and it’s likely they could be headed for the same fate this postseason.

This all started two years ago this month when the Yankees decided against trading for Justin Verlander’s contract when it would have cost them nothing other than money. It continued the offseason after Verlander single-handedly beat them in the ALCS when the front office chose to cut payroll by $50 million, coming off a season in which they were one win away from the World Series. It didn’t stop when they wouldn’t part with their prospects for Gerrit Cole, and it went on when they wouldn’t pay for Corbin, didn’t want Morton and didn’t care to add Keuchel. Every chance along the way, the Yankees have held on to their money and their prospects, worrying about next season or the season after, thinking their current success can be counted on year after year.

The Yankees could win the World Series with their current roster, though their chances would certainly increase if Severino and Dellin Betances return and return at their normal performance level. But Severino is one setback away from not being able to start a game this season and Betances is getting dangerously close to having his free-agent season be lost. The Yankees should have planned to not have either back, instead they now desperately need them both back.

For yet another season, the Yankees didn’t do everything they could to build the best possible roster. They were too cheap to pay for starting pitching and too attached to their prospects to trade for starting pitching. Too cheap to pay and too attached to their prospects to try to win a championship for the first time in going on a decade.

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My book The Next Yankees Era: My Transition from the Core Four to the Baby Bombers is available!

Podcasts • Yankees

Jul 29, 2019

Yankees Podcast: Shelley Duncan and Scott Reinen

Former major league outfielder Shelley Duncan joined me to talk about playing for the Yankees and Scott Reinen of Bronx Pinstripes talks about the Yankees’ pitching issues.

Scott Reinen of Bronx Pinstripes joined me to talk about the Yankees-Red Sox series from the weekend, if Larry Rothschild should take responsibility for the starting pitching issues, James Paxton continuing to struggle as a Yankee, who the Yankees should trade for with Marcus Stroman off the board and which current rotation members should get postseason starts.

At the 25:38 mark, former Yankees outfielder Shelley Duncan joined me to talk about hitting home runs for the Yankees, the midges in Cleveland during the ALDS, playing under Joe Torre and Joe Girardi, the differences in playing at the old and new Yankee Stadium, his patented forearm bump and brawls in baseball.

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My book The Next Yankees Era: My Transition from the Core Four to the Baby Bombers is available!