Yankees – Page 199 – Keefe To The City

Apr 2, 2015

Podcast: JJ Barstool Sports New York

It’s time to look at the 2015 Yankees with some over/unders to get a better sense of what type of season we can expect in the Bronx.

Baseball is back. All that’s separating us from baseball season and Opening Day at Yankee Stadium is the weekend. The weather forecast Monday keeps getting better and better and it looks like we might have the best Opening Day weather in the Bronx in what seems like forever. The season is off to a good start without even having played a game.

JJ of Barstool Sports New York joined me to talk about getting ready for Opening Day, what type of season A-Rod is going to have, trying to believe in Mark Teixeira and Carlos Beltran, who the Yankees’ closer should be, and we pick over/unders for the season.

Also, Keefe To The City has partnered with The Allie Way Sports Bar on East 70th Street between 1st and York in the Upper East Side for Yankees Sunday Funday Viewing Parties this season. The first one is Sunday, April 19 at 1 p.m. when the Yankees head to Tampa to face the Rays. Come to The Allie Way for the game and enjoy drink specials, including $30 (cash) open bar for the entire game!

CLICK HERE FOR MORE YANKEES PODCASTS TO GET YOU READY FOR OPENING DAY

Blogs • MLB • Opening Day • Yankees

Apr 2, 2015

2015 MLB Over/Under Wins

The baseball season starts on Sunday night, so it’s time to take a look at the win totals for the 2015 and pick five overs and five unders.

The 2015 season begins on Sunday night in Chicago and the real season begins on Monday afternoon in the Bronx. With only a few days separating us from the start of a new season, it’s time to look at the win totals and pick five overs and five unders.

OVERS

San Francisco Giants – 82
I realize this is an odd-numbered year and that means that the Giants are likely to miss the playoffs and then bounce back and win the World Series next year the way they did in 2010, 2012 and 2014.

The Giants did lose Pablo Sandoval to the Red Sox where he is in line to become Carl Crawford 2.0 with handling the pressure and dealing with the media and listening to insane baseball fans that go along with playing in Boston. But they traded for Casey McGehee to play third and have Matt Cain back after he missed the second half of last season. Even with the NL West getting some depth with the Padres changing their entire team to compete with the Dodgers, the Giants will still be in the postseason mix for a wild-card spot and they will be better than two games over .500.

New York Yankees – 82.5
The last time the Yankees won less than 83 games was in 1992 when they won 76 games. That season was also the last time they finished under .500.

The 2013 Yankees won 85 games with these players playing the most games at each position:

C – Chris Stewart
1B – Lyle Overbay
2B – Robinson Cano
3B – Jayson Nix
SS – Eduardo Nunez
LF – Vernon Wells
CF – Brett Gardner
RF – Ichiro Suzuki
DH – Travis Hafner

The 2014 Yankees won 84 games with Jacoby Ellsbury leading the team with a .271 average, 40-year-old Ichiro playing 143 games, Brian Roberts, Kelly Johnson and Stephen Drew combining for 730 plate appearances, Masahiro Tanaka making only 20 starts, Michael Pineda making only 13 and Vidal Nuno making the fifth most starts on the team (14) despite being traded on July 6.

For as bad as the 2013 and 2014 seasons went for the Yankees with injuries and poor production, they still covered this number, and they will again in 2015.

New York Mets – 83
This is a dangerous pick. The Mets haven’t won at least 83 games since 2008 (89-73) and the hype train surrounding this team because of their starting pitching is so out of control it rivals that of the Cubs, who have had five straight fifth-place finishes.

The Mets’ rotation isn’t what it was projected to be without Zack Wheeler, but it’s still one of the strongest in the league and with Matt Harvey back, with a full season of Jacob deGrom and an improved offense, the Mets are clearly more than four wins better than they were last year at 79-83.

I don’t think the Mets are necessarily a playoff team the way everyone else has been so quick to believe, but they will be in contention for at least the second wild-card spot because as the Yankees have proved the last two years, you just have to not completely suck to be in the mix until even late September.

San Diego Padres – 84
The Padres weren’t effing around this offseason. They changed their entire outfield by trading for Matt Kemp, Justin Upton and Wil Myers and signed James Shields to a four-year deal to give them the deepest rotation in the NL West. If you look at the 77-win 2014 Padres and change their most used outfielders of Seth Smith, Cameron Maybin and Will Venable to Kemp, Upton and Myers and add Shields into their rotation in place of Eric Stults, who lost 17 games, then this team not only covers the 84, but they are a playoff team.

It’s weird to think about how bad the AL East has become and how much better the NL Wast has become.

Los Angeles Dodgers – 92.5
This number can be changed to 72.5 for the Los Angeles Dodgers without Clayton Kershaw. Kershaw won 21 games last year in only 27 starts and after what he has done the last four years, you can just go ahead and put him down for (at least) 20 wins this season, which means the rest of the team needs to find a way to 73 games and that shouldn’t be hard.

The Dodgers won 94 games in 2014 without Kershaw for all of April, with just two starters pitching full seasons (Zack Greinke and Dan Haren), A.J. Ellis hitting .191 in 347 plate appearances and having a group of untrustworthy middle relievers. They did stupidly trade Matt Kemp within the division to San Diego, sent Dee Gordon to Miami and lost Hanley Ramirez to free agency, but they added Jimmy Rollins and Howie Kendrick and bolstered their rotation by signing Brandon McCarthy and Brett Anderson. The Dodgers are a better team than they were last year.

UNDERS

Minnesota Twins – 73
The Twins are bad. Really, really, really bad. The Phillies have the lowest number (66.5) for this season, but I’m not sure the Phillies are the worst team in the league, it might be the Twins. It used to be a guaranteed win to take the Twins’ over, but those days are long gone.

The Twins won 70 games last season and that was with Phil Hughes somehow becoming the pitcher Yankees fans had been told since 2004 that he would become. Do I think Hughes is going to win 16 games again and walk only 16 in 209 2/3 innings and actually receive Cy Young votes? No. The Twins’ rotation did get some help with the addition of Ervin Santana, but aside from Joe Mauer, their lineup is a disaster and signing Torii Hunter, who will be 39 in July, isn’t going to turn back the clock to 2002, 2003 or 2004 for the Twins.

Tampa Bay Rays – 79
The Rays are going to be so bad that I feel bad that Evan Longoria’s production is going to be wasted in Tampa Bay. Well, as long as that production doesn’t come against the Yankees.

The 2014 Rays only won 77 games and they are a worse team this season. They aren’t going to get 23 starts and 11 wins from David Price. They no longer have Ben Zobrist to play every position. Wil Myers is in San Diego, Matthew Joyce is in Anaheim and Yunel Escobar is in Washington. Joe Maddon is in Chicago and Andrew Friedman is in Los Angeles. Jake McGee is coming off arthroscopic elbow surgery in December and new No. 1 starter Alex Cobb has forearm tendinitis. The Rays might want to add “Devil” back to their name because it might feel like 1998-2007 in Tampa Bay this season.

Detroit Tigers – 84
The Tigers won 90 games in 2014 and 18 of those were Max Scherzer’s, 15 were Rick Porcello’s and 15 were Justin Verlander’s. Scherzer is now in Washington, Porcello is in Boston and Verlander is beginning the season on the disabled list with triceps soreness. Sure, the Tigers will have a full season of David Price and he can fill the void of Scherzer leaving and if Anibal Sanchez stays healthy, he can take over for Porcello. But without Verlander healthy, and when healthy, pitching like 2009-2013 instead of 2014, the Tigers are in trouble.

Cleveland Indians – 85
The Indians earned a wild-card berth in 2013 and last season nearly earned another one because they spent September the last two years beating up on the White Sox and Twins to rack up late-season wins. Unfortunately for the Indians, only the Twins are a doormat for the AL Central now.

There seems to be a lot of over-the-top admiration for the 2015 Indians. The Indians won 85 games last year with 18 of those coming from Corey Kluber’s Cy Young season and no other Indians starter had double-digit wins.

The Indians’ rotation has been set as Kluber, Carlos Carrasco (54 career starts), Trevor Bauer (34 career starts), Zach McAllister (65 career starts) and T.J. House (18 career starts). There isn’t a whole lot of experience in that rotation and unless Kluber is turning into Cliff Lee in his late-20s, the Indians’ pitching can’t compete with the White Sox, Royals and Tigers. And the the Indians’ offense isn’t good enough to carry their pitching.

Boston Red Sox – 86
Everyone is drooling over the Red Sox’ lineup and how 2015 will be a “resurgence” for the team. The 2012 Red Sox won 69 games. The 2013 Red Sox hit the biggest parlay in the history of major sports an won 97 games. The 2014 Red Sox won 71 games. That’s two last-place finishes sandwiched around the most miraculous of miracles.

The 2015 Red Sox might have the best lineup in baseball, but their rotation is Clay Buchholz, Rick Porcello, Wade Miley, Justin Masterson and Joe Kelly. When Buchholz, who has only pitched three full seasons since entering the league in 2007 and who is coming off a season with a 5.34 ERA, is your Opening Day starter and No. 1, not even having the best lineup in baseball can make up for that.

Opening Day • Podcasts • Yankees

Apr 1, 2015

Podcast: Erik Boland

The only thing that needs to happen between now and Opening Day is that the Yankees stay healthy, but they seem to be having a hard time doing so.

Five days to go. Five days. That’s it. That’s all that’s separating us from baseball season and Opening Day at Yankee Stadium. The only thing that needs to happen between now and then is that the Yankees stay healthy, but they seem to be having a hard time doing so.

Erik Boland, the Yankees beat writer for Newsday, joined me to talk about Stephen Drew’s status on the Yankees at second base and shortstop, the resurgence of A-Rod in spring training, what worries the front office the most about this team and where the level of expectation is for this season.

Blogs • Opening Day • Yankees

Apr 1, 2015

The Season of Optimism for the Yankees

The only way to think about the 2015 Yankees is positively or it’s going to be a long summer, which makes it easier to do over/unders for the season.

I’m officially declaring the 2015 Yankees season as the Season of Optimism. Right now there are so many question marks and unknowns surrounding this team at every position other than left field (Brett Gardner), center field (Jacoby Ellsbury) and third base (Chase Headley).

Every starter in the rotation is either a health or performance concern. First base, second base, shortstop, right field and designated hitter are the same. The bullpen is the one clear strength that no one should worry about, but even there, a closer hasn’t been named and aside from Dellin Betances and Andrew Miller, none of the other hard-throwing relievers have pitched for the Yankees before. Knowing all of that, the only thing to be about this team is optimistic because if you’re not then you might in for a long season. How long this optimism will last? Well, I guess that depends on the health of Masahiro Tanaka’s right elbow and Michael Pineda’s right shoulder.

This optimism has led me to create some over/unders for the 2015 Yankees and for most of the numbers I created, my picks for each are about being as positive as possible.

CC Sabathia – 4.50 ERA
Did I set the ERA for a pitcher making $23 million this season (and $25 million in 2016 and possibly 2017) at the equivalent of a quality start? Yes. Yes, I did. That’s a big drop off from the pitcher who averaged 18 wins and a 3.22 ERA per season in his first four years with the Yankees (2009-2012).

Just being healthy isn’t going to cut it for Sabathia. He needs to be healthy and good. Not great like he once was, just good and that means better than he was in 2013 and 2014. His numbers this spring have been bad and the three home runs allowed in 4 2/3 innings is reminiscent of what made him bad in 2013 and 2014. With this offense, he’s not going to rack up the wins despite pitching poorly like Randy Johnson did in 2006 when he won 17 games with a 5.00 ERA. Sabathia is going to need to find a way to get outs without overpowering hitters the way his former teammate Andy Pettitte and supposed best friend Cliff Lee were able to do. (Let’s hope he talked to them.) Given the health concerns of Tanaka and Pined every pitch they throw, Sabathia is going to need to be relied on. That makes me uncomfortable, but … optimism! Under.

Mark Teixeira – .245 AVG.
Mark Teixeira hit .216 last season. .216! The year before coming to the Yankees he hit .308. In his first season with the Yankees, he hit .292. I thought it was bad when he dropped to .256 in 2010 and started transforming into Jason Giambi 2.0 with only the short porch in right on his mind and no care for ever attempting to the hit the ball the other way as a left-handed hitter. But now we’re way past being Jason Giambi 2.0 and Teixeira is looking more like Adam Dunn or Mark Reynolds with less power.

For Teixeira to hit over .245, he will have to remain healthy, not miss games with wrist or other varying injuries, be willing to hit the ball to the left side of the field when he’s hitting left-handed and not think that he can take any pitcher over the 314 FT. sign in right field. There’s a better chance that the Yankees replicate their 1998 season than there is that Teixeira does those things. Under.

Jacoby Ellsbury – 16.5 HOME RUNS
I used to talk about Brady Anderson and ask which one of these doesn’t belong: 21, 13, 12, 16, 50, 18, 18, 24, 19, 8? Those are Anderson’s home run totals for his full seasons in the majors and that 50 from 1996 looks more out of place than the Martini Bar inside Yankee Stadium.

When it comes to Ellsbury, you can ask the same question about which of these doesn’t belong: 9, 8, 32, 9 and 16? I’m not sure how Ellsbury hit .321/.376/.552 with 32 home runs and 105 RBIs to finish second in the AL MVP voting to Justin Verlander, but I really wish he would become that player again. Ellsbury got a pass last year despite having a down year because he was the “best” hitter on a team full of bad hitters. I don’t think that .271/.328/.419 is what the Yankees thought they were going to get for Ellsbury’s 30-year-old season when they gave him seven years and $153 million.

Everyone kept saying that Ellsbury’s swing combined with the short porch would mean at least 20-25 home runs playing 81 games at Yankee Stadium. I’m hoping that 2013 will be Ellsbury’s version of Carlos Beltran’s 2005 or he will become Johnny Damon’s 2006 and 2009. Over.

Brett Gardner – 30 STOLEN BASES
Brett Gardner’s baserunning career has been a disappointment. After stealing 47 and 49 bases in 2010 and 2011 respectively, he only stole 24 in 2013 and 21 in 2014. He’s supposed to be the cheaper version of Jacoby Ellsbury and not the power hitter he thinks he became thanks to three nights in Texas last July. Gardner needs to get back to being a threat on the bases and not someone who is scared of every pickoff move in the league. Over.

Alex Rodriguez – 100 GAMES PLAYED
I have big plans for A-Rod. Not the kind of plans that include the 54 home runs and 156 RBIs from 2007. But something better than 2012 when he 18 home runs and 57 RBIs (though I would sign up for that right now). In order for A-Rod to make my plans happen, he’s going to need to stay healthy and play a lot and that means more than 100 games, which he has only done once (2012) in the last four years.

But this is the Season of Optimism and that means thinking A-Rod is going to play a full season and be productive and be everything that every writer from the Daily News and Post didn’t think he would or could be. Over.

Stephen Drew – STILL A YANKEE ON JUNE 1
I like how Brian Cashman was so adamant this spring about how Drew is the Yankees’ starting second baseman no matter what while he said Alex Rodriguez had to earn a spot on the team. Unfortunately, for my DFA Stephen Drew, #GiveRobTheJob and #SayOkToJose campaigns, Stephen Drew has started hitting a little and is now up to .244/.306/.444 this spring.

Drew is going to be a Yankee on Opening Day. He is going to get announced in the starting lineup and jog out to the first-base line, which is something I wished I wouldn’t have to see given that he hit .150/.219/.271 for the Yankees last year.

If Drew doesn’t hit the way he hasn’t most of March and the way he didn’t in 46 games for the Yankees last year and the way he didn’t in 39 games for the Red Sox last year and the way he didn’t in the 2013 postseason, then the Yankees will release him and eat the remaining money of his $5 million. And then we will finally get to see Rob Refsnyder or Jose Pirela play second base, which is what we should have seen all along. The Yankees have been trying to patch up the holes on their sinking boat with players like Drew for the last three years, but at some point you just need a new boat. Rob Refsnyder and Jose Pirela are that new boat. Under.

Chase Headley – .350 OBP
When the Yankees traded for Chase Headley, everyone looked at that .286-31-115 season from 2012 and hoped that he would find that hitting as a Yankee. But it was the Padres’ willingness to trade an impending free agent hitting .229/.296/.355 with cash for just Yangervis Solarte and Rafael De Paula.

What stuck out the most about Headley’s time with the Yankees in 2014 was his .371 on-base percentage, which was 24 points better than his career .347 on-base percentage and close to his 2011 (.374) and 2012 (.376) seasons in San Diego. If Headley can get on base the way he did for 58 games last year, it will make up for the lack of power the Yankees have at third. (Unless their former third baseman and now DH can make up the difference.) Over.

Carlos Beltran – 20.5 HOME RUNS
Carlos Beltran is one year removed from hitting 24 home runs and two years removed from hitting 32. The last time he didn’t hit at least 22 home runs in a full season was when he hit 16 in his first season with the Mets (2005), which could have been him trying to live up to and prove his his $119 million contract since he hit 41 the following year.

The Yankees signed Carlos Beltran 10 offseasons too late, he’s going to turn 38 on April 24 and after his elbow injury last season that kept him from playing the field and from hitting for power and needed surgery on in the offseason, I’m not sure that believing in Beltran is the best use of anyone’s energy. Under.

Dellin Betances and Andrew Miller – 40.5 SAVES
The Yankees still haven’t decided who their closer is and maybe that’s because Joe Girardi has decided to go with no closer and use whichever reliever a particular situation calls for? OK, so there’s no chance of that happening, but I can dream.

It would make the most sense to have Betances and Miller ready for any and all situations and not just save opportunities for one or both of them in order to shorten games for a team whose rotation is shaky past Tanaka and Pineda and is shaky even with them given their health histories.

Taking the over here means the Yankees are winning games. Sure, they’re winning close games, but they’re winning them. Over.

Nathan Eovaldi – 11.5 WINS
This is Nathan Eovaldi’s line from this spring: 13.2 IP, 10 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 14 K, 0.66 ERA, 0.732 WHIP. Eovaldi isn’t going to keep those kind of numbers up since that would translate to the best starting pitching performance in the history of baseball and the best season of any athlete in any sport in the history of sports. Wayne Gretzky’s 92-120-212 season from 1981-82 wouldn’t even be in the same stratosphere. Since Eovaldi isn’t going to go the entire season without walking a batter, it’s time to think more realistically.

Those 14 strikeouts in 13 2/3 innings this spring is what everyone should be looking for from Eovaldi. He has never come close to striking out one hitter per inning in his five seasons in the league and as a hard-throwing starter, it’s a little odd. One Mets fan told me he’s going to be the Yankees’ Mike Pelfrey as someone who throws mid-to-high-90s and doesn’t strike anyone out. But after trading Martin Prado, who was looking to be a vital piece to the 2015 Yankees and David Phelps, who the organization has loved, for Eovaldi, let’s hope they’re right that time with Larry Rothschild can get the most out of his untapped potential. Over.

Michael Pineda – 160 INNINGS PITCHED
In the last three years, Michael Pineda has thrown 76 1/3 innings in the majors. But like the Yankees’ other front-end starter, if Pineda doesn’t stay healthy, well, there are a lot of other things to do from April to September other than watch Yankees baseball. Over.

Masahiro Tanaka – 27.5 STARTS
Masahiro Tanaka made 20 starts last season. In Japan, starting in 2013 and going back to 2007, he made 27, 22, 27, 20, 24, 24 and 28 starts (as part of a six-man rotation). So if Tanaka is going to make more than 27.5 starts this season, he’s going to do something he’s only ever done once in his life and he’s going to to do it in the season following a season in which every prominent surgeon had to examine an MRI of his right elbow. Thinking Tanaka is going to pitch the full season is a little overly optimistic, but that’s the only way to be with this team or it’s going to be a long summer. Over.

Opening Day • Podcasts • Yankees

Mar 31, 2015

Podcast: John Jastremski

The Yankees over/under numbers for win is 82.5 and that’s because the level of comfort entering this season feels exactly the way it did for the last two years.

Six days to go. Six days. That’s it. That’s all that’s separating us from baseball season and Opening Day at Yankee Stadium. The current forecast for the Bronx on Monday is 54 and partly cloudy, so let’s hope that holds up and we get some reasonable weather for a season opener.

WFAN host John Jastremski joined me to talk about what should worry Yankees fans the most about this team, why it’s time to give the prospects a chance in the Bronx, how entering this season feels the same as the last two years and predictions for the AL East along with win totals.