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The State of the Yankees’ Rotation: Pitchers and Catchers Edition

The Yankees’ rotation is once again an unknown for the fourth straight season, so I decided to write one question about each of the Yankees’ six starting pitchers in honor of them reporting to Tampa.

Luis Severino

Baseball is back! Well, kind of. Pitchers and catchers reporting means the new season has officially started though it’s also just a tease that baseball is truly back with six weeks of meaningless baseball ahead and February and the winter gauntlet still upon us. But with temperatures in the minus-double digits over the last week with the wind chill, any sign of baseball and spring and is a welcome sight.

The Yankees’ spring training opened and with it came the barrage of beat writer tweets marveling at the height and build of new Yankees closer Aroldis Chapman as if no one seemed to know that a guy who throws 105 mph would be so big and so strong. It opened with Joe Girardi being peppered with questions about the unknown playing status of Chapman as well as the lingering injury issues surrounding nearly the entire rotation. And it opened with me wondering about how good this Yankees pitching staff is or can be or if it will be any good at all.

We know the bullpen isn’t going to be good, but rather great. It has to be. If the Yankees’ bullpen doesn’t live up to the hype then nothing else matters because this team isn’t going anywhere without the best bullpen in baseball. The rotation, on the other hand, is once again an unknown for the fourth straight season, so let’s focus there. I decided to write one question about each of the Yankees’ six starting pitchers in honor of them reporting to Tampa.

Number 47, Ivan Nova, Number 47

Who are you?

I know you’re Ivan Manuel (Guance) Nova, born Jan. 12, 1987 and signed by the Yankees as an amateur free agent in 2004. But I mean who are you as a pitcher?

Are you the Ivan Nova that pitched decently in 10 games and seven starts near the end of the 2010 season? Are you the Ivan Nova that went 16-4 with a 3.70 ERA in 2011, shut down the Tigers in Game 1 (but kind of Game 2) in the 2011 ALDS and look like you might be a future front-end starter? Are you the Ivan Nova that went 12-8 with a 5.02 ERA in 2012 and gave up five earned runs or more in nine of 28 starts? Are you the Ivan Nova that pitched his way back to Triple-A at the beginning of 2013 only to return on July 5 and pitch to a 2.59 ERA over his next 15 starts (104 1/3 innings)? Are you the Ivan Nova that had an 8.27 ERA after four starts in 2014 before needing Tommy John surgery? Are you the Ivan Nova that returned in 2015 and went 6-11 with a 5.07 ERA in 17 starts?

The Yankees brought back Nova because they are hoping he can be the pitcher he was in 2011 and the second half of 2013 now that he’s a full season removed from Tommy John surgery and it’s not the worst gamble they ever made. Unfortunately, if the other five starters stay healthy in spring training (and that might be the biggest “if” of all time), Nova is the odd man out and I don’t know what happens to him when it comes to a roster spot. He isn’t suited a long-relief role where the appearances are infrequent and where he wouldn’t be stretched out enough to spot start once an inevitable injury to the other four happens. So I think that could mean he begins the season in Triple-A, which isn’t the worst thing. Like Nova said this month, “I’m a starting pitcher, not a reliever,” and the Yankees should abide by that.

It’s been four-plus years since I thought Nova could be really good and two-plus years since I thought that again. After six seasons as the poster boy for inconsistent, this is likely his last chance with the Yankes to remove that label.

Number 52, CC Sabathia, Number 52

Did you figure out how to “pitch” yet?

Once again, CC Sabathia’s supposed best friend is Cliff Lee, and once again, CC Sabathia spent four seasons with Andy Pettitte. So how is that he hasn’t figured how to pitch like his best friend and longtime teammate and get people out with diminished velocity? How is it that Sabathia still thinks he can pull a mid-to-high-90s fastball out of his back pocket to escape a jam like the old days?

I know CC Sabathia is done. I wrote about it last June and again a little over a week ago. I know he’s never going to be the pitcher he was in 2009 or 2010 or 2011 or 2012, but is it too much to ask of him to just not be the pitcher he was in 2013 (14-13, 4.78 ERA), 2014 (3-4, 5.28 ERA) and 2015 (6-10, 4.73 ERA)?

Maybe after three seasons and 69 starts of being unable to accept the fact that 95 mph and 96 mph and 97 mph are no longer options, and really, 90 mph and 91 mph are often not options either, maybe this is the year that Sabathia learns how to get people out without an overpowering fastball. If it isn’t and if he can’t, well, we’re looking at a fourth straight bad season from the former ace, and if his left shoulder stays healthy, we’ll see it again in 2017 for another $25 million.

The Yankees don’t need Sabathia to be what he once was or even close to it. They just can’t have him ruining the season like he nearly did last year of the way Phil Hughes did in 2013 (14 losses). If Sabathia was able to stay in the rotation last year over Adam Warren despite winning more two games in a month only twice then it’s obvious he’s going to be in the rotation no matter what and the Yankees can’t afford to have him lay an egg or destroy the bullpen every five days.

I would sign up for an above-.500 record and 4.50 ERA from Sabathia right now because it’s better than anything he’s done in the last three seasons and it’s certainly better than anything anyone should expect from him this season. Give me a season of 6 IP/3 ER starts and I’m more than happy.

Number 30, Nathan Eovaldi, Number 30

Have you realized you throw 100 mph?

Nathan Eovaldi’s first season in the Bronx wasn’t as bad as I make it out to be. He did go 14-3 with a 4.20 ERA, but what I hate about him is that he struck out 121 in 154 1/3 innings. How is it possible that a guy who can throw 100 mph for an entire game (and when I say game I mean a Nathan Eovaldi-pitched game, which is 5 1/3 innings), but can’t strike anyone out? At least Phil Hughes had an excuse when he would get ahead 0-2 and then throw nine more pitches in at-bat and that excuse was that he was throwing 92. Eovaldi is throwing 98-99-100 with every fastball and can’t put hitters away. It’s a waste of talent and a waste of an arm and it’s the reason Eovaldi joined his third team by age 24 despite throwing so hard.

Maybe Eovaldi’s new-found splitter last season will be the difference in his career. Maybe that’s the pitch that will finally get him over the hump and and start to bring down that ugly 1.397 career WHIP of his. Maybe he won’t waste so many two-strike pitches that get fouled off and won’t try to strike every guy out and maintain his pitch count, so he isn’t forced to leave every game in the sixth inning nearing 120 pitches. That’s a lot of maybes for a guy who many Yankees fans believe in and believe he can be a front-end starter for this team. I’m going to need to see it more than once a month.

Number 40, Luis Severino, Number 40

Are you the ace?

Luis Severino might be the best pitcher on the Yankees and that’s with a healthy Masahiro Tanaka. I have him as the third starter here because even though Severino is the future of this rotation, there’s no chance the Yankees have him as the No. 2 going into the season and they will likely have him as the No. 4 and I wouldn’t be surprised if they have him as the No. 5. This is the team that told us they’re all about winning last season and sent Adam Warren to the bullpen to keep CC Sabathia in the rotation and it nearly cost them a playoff berth for the third straight season.

I’m actually surprised Joe Girardi mentioned that he sees Severino pitching 200 innings this season since it’s unlike Girardi to say anyone has a guaranteed spot on the team. It would have been more like Girardi to say that Severino is competing for a rotation spot even though he might be the team’s ace.

I liked everything I saw from Severino last season and I’m expecting big things from him in 2016. That might be unfair for a starting pitcher who turns 22 on Saturday and has 11 starts and 62 1/3 innings of Major League experience under his belt, but I wouldn’t say it if I didn’t think he could handle it. Even with minimal work in the majors, I thought there was a case to be made to have Severino start the wild-card game last year though I knew that would never happen. But to think he was right there alongside Tanaka, the $155 million man, to start a one-game playoff after 11 career starts shows you how good Severino is.

Number 35, Michael Pineda, Number 35

Will you ever pitch a full season?

After missing the entire 2012 and 2013 seasons, I started to think Michael Pineda would never actually pitch a game for the Yankees and that feeling of overwhelming excitement I felt in January 2012 when I found out the Yankees had traded Jesus Montero for him would never come to fruition. I finally got that feeling in 2014 when Pineda pitched to a 1.89 ERA, but only for a short time with just 13 starts. In 2015, Pineda wasn’t as good as he had been the year before, but he was healthier, making 27 starts after missing nearly all of August.

2014 Michael Pineda is the Michael Pineda I thought the Yankees were getting when they traded for him. (Well, 2014 Michael Pineda with a few more strikeouts is really the pitcher I thought they were getting.) But I thought they were getting a No. 1-2 starter in exchange for a player without a position. I thought they were getting the guy they thought they were signing in A.J. Burnett and someone to finally slot in behind CC Sabathia and make a true and formidable 1-2 punch for the playoffs. Instead Pineda has made just 40 starts over four years as a Yankee and by the time he was healthy to pitch, Sabathia was no longer the No. 1 and the Yankees weren’t even a playoff team.

I still think there’s a full season as a Yankee ahead of Pineda, and the scary part is it feels like that trade happened forever ago, yet he just turned 27 in January. With all the questions once again surrounding this rotation, it would be nice if Pineda could finally remove himself as one of the questions for the first time in five years and here’s to believing he can. I still believe in Big Mike.

Number 19, Masahiro Tanaka, Number 19

Is your right elbow OK?

Back in October, Tanaka had arthroscopic surgery to remove a bone spur from his pitching elbow. It wasn’t the surgery many thought he would have had by now and some New York writers have wished he would have by now, but it’s still surgery. Now four months removed from the surgery, there is a possibility Tanaka won’t be ready in time for Opening Day despite being pain free at this point.

I was skeptical of the Yankees giving $155 million to a pitcher that had never thrown a pitcher in the majors. When his third pitch in the majors, on an 0-2 count to Melky Cabrera, went for a leadoff home run in the third game of the 2014 season, I wasn’t feeling too good. But Tanaka won that game and started the season 6-0 and when he improved to 11-1 on June 17 with his fifth double-digit strikeout game in 15 starts, his ERA stood at 1.99. Even when he lost a complete game to the Red Sox on June 28 despite giving up just two earned runs, Tanaka was still 11-3 with a 2.10 ERA and he was still the best pitcher in the American League.

In his next two starts, Tanaka gave up nine earned runs in 13 2/3 innings and went on the disabled list after his July 8 start. He returned on Sept. 21 to make two starts — one good (5.1 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 4 K vs. TOR) and one bad (1.2 IP, 7 H, 7 R, 5 ER, 2 BB, 2 K at BOS) — to end the season.

In 2015, we saw the April 4-July 8, 2014 Tanaka in spurts. We saw him on April 18 (7 IP, 2 HR, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 8 K at TB) and April 23 (6.1 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 2 BB, 6 K at DET). But then he went on the DL until June 3. We saw him come off the DL and pitch 21 innings with 21 strikeouts, allowing just four earned runs in his first three starts back. But after that run from June 3-15, we saw him sporadically and didn’t see him in the one-game playoff against the Astros even though he probably could have pitched 14 scoreless innings that game and the Yankees still would have lost.

Last season, I thought Tanaka had to be healthy all year for the Yankees to make the playoffs. He wasn’t (24 starts) and they did (kind of). But this season, I’m saying nearly the same thing: Masahiro Tanaka has to be healthy nearly all season for the Yankees to make the playoffs. With Michael Pineda’s shoulder annual shoulder problems, Nathan Eovaldi’s own elbow issue, Luis Severino’s inexperience, CC Sabathia’s … well just about everything with CC and Ivan Nova’s inconsistent career, the Yankees can’t afford to lose Tanaka. That’s right, the 2015 rotation hinges on the right arm of a pitcher pitching with a torn right elbow. Baseball is back!

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CC Sabathia Is Still Done

It wouldn’t be February without overly optimistic stories. And who better to start up this round of stories than CC Sabathia?

CC Sabathia

It’s almost time for pitchers and catchers to report and spring training to officially start, and it wouldn’t be early February without some overly optimistic stories. Each year at this time, the fairy tales that “(Player Name) is in the best shape of his life” or “(Player Name) feels the best he has in (number) years” are written. And who better to start up this round of stories than CC Sabathia?

“I feel the best I have in three years. I am excited to get to Tampa with a clear head and a healthy body.”

That’s what Sabathia texted to the New York Post on Tuesday after a workout, and in two simple sentences, Sabathia has given a lot of false hope to those who believe him. I don’t.

Last season, I did over/unders for the Yankees, and for Sabathia I set his ERA at over/under 4.50. Here’s what I said:

Sabathia is going to need to find a way to get outs without overpowering hitters the way his former teammate Andy Pettitte and supposed best friend Cliff Lee were able to do. (Let’s hope he talked to them.) Given the health concerns of Tanaka and Pined every pitch they throw, Sabathia is going to need to be relied on. That makes me uncomfortable, but … optimism!

Yes, I took the under and believed that a former ace making $25 million could pitch to a quality start ERA. He finished the year with a 4.73 ERA. It was down from his 5.28 in 2014 and his 4.78 in 2013, but it was nowhere near the 3.22 he posted in his first four years with the Yankees.

Sabathia once again let Yankees fans down as if was once again unable to turn into former teammate Andy Pettitte or supposed best friend Cliff Lee and instead tried to sneak fastballs past hitters sitting on his mid-to-high-80s stuff. He put together back-to-back quality starts three times in 29 starts and never had three in a row. It was another disappointing season from the former Cy Young winner, who lost his first four starts and didn’t get his first win until May 11 to improve to 1-5, as he didn’t win in April, won twice in May, once in June, once in July, didn’t win in August and won twice in September.

So now on Feb. 9, after having not pitched since Oct. 1, four months ago, and having spent a month in rehab for alcohol abuse, Sabathia says he feels the best he has in three years. Of course he does! He hasn’t pitched in 131 days and finally received treatment for what he said had been an ongoing problem. He’s never going to feel as good as he does right now before pitchers and catchers report and before the daily grind of being a soon-to-be 36-year-old Major League pitcher sets in.

My biggest question from Sabathia’s two sentences, is what he means by “three years.” If he means calendar years, well, three years ago right now he was about to begin a season in which he went 14-13 with a 4.78 ERA and led the league in earned runs. If he means seasons, then OK, because three seasons ago was his 2012 season when he went 15-6 with a 3.38 ERA and beat the Orioles twice in the ALDS. (Better known as his last good season.)

Wallace Matthews of ESPN New York wrote that Sabathia is “fighting” for his job in the rotation, which couldn’t be any less true, so I tweeted that I hope no one really thinks Sabathia’s rotation spot is in question.

When I tweeted Matthews about how ridiculous of a concept that was, he replied:

https://twitter.com/ESPNNYYankees/status/697545815473008640

So then, I replied:

That’s the truth. If Sabathia could remain in the 2015 rotation despite having an ERA of at least five until Sept. 14 and having just four wins in 26 starts through Sept. 14, while Adam Warren was sent to the bullpen, why would anyone think that Sabathia would be fighting for his job this season, against Ivan Nova of all pitchers? As long as Sabathia keeps making about $700,000 per start, which he will make this season AND next season, he’s going to start.

For the guy who basically won every five days for four years, he has now held Jorge Posada’s former title as the Yankees’ family dog for three seasons. If you forgot what I wrote about Posada in 2010 and 2011, well …

Posada is like the aging family dog that just wanders around aimlessly and goes to the bathroom all over the place and just lies around and sleeps all day. You try to pretend like the end isn’t near and you try to remember the good times to get through the bad times, and once in a while the dog will do something to remind you of what it used to be, but it’s just momentary tease.

Take out Posada and insert Sabathia and you have 2013-2015 Sabathia and what we will once again get in 2016 for $25 million and unfortunately again in 2017 for $25 million.

As the family dog, I’m sure Sabathia will give us a few throwback performances this season. Maybe he’ll beat the Red Sox on Sunday Night Baseball or outpitch Matt Harvey at Yankee Stadium. Maybe he’ll retire Jose Bautista with the bases loaded or get Adam Jones to ground into a double play to hold a lead in a big spot. There will be times when Sabathia makes you think it’s 2009 or 2010 or 2011 or 2012 again, but they will be rare. Don’t believe what he texted the Post. It pains me to say again, but like I said last June, CC Sabathia is done.

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Bye Bye Greg Bird

There’s a chance Greg Bird won’t be ready for 2017 and there’s a chance he won’t be as productive as he once was and there’s a chance he won’t be able to be the first baseman of the future.

Greg Bird

I guess I won’t have to waste a million words this season writing about how Greg Bird should be the Yankees’ starting first baseman over Mark Teixeira even though Teixeira will make $23 million this year. Now I just have to hope I don’t waste a million words next season once again longing for Bird to be the Yankees’ starting first baseman. I will spend the next year desperately hoping for 2015 Greg Bird to show up in 2017, completely fixed from his shoulder surgery and not suffering any setbacks, and not skipping a beat from the last time we saw him on the field in the wild-card game.

There’s a chance Bird won’t be ready for 2017 and there’s a chance he won’t be as productive as he once was and there’s a chance he won’t be able to be the first baseman of the future. The Yankees aren’t about to go into 2017 without an insurance policy at first base and that most likely means Mark Teixeira won’t have to move from Greenwich anytime soon. Aside from the actual problem of Bird being originally told to rest and rehab his shoulder and now he will miss the entire season after surgery, the other here is that Bird’s absence sets up a potential terrible chain reaction. Like a 75-yard chain of dominoes built during indoor recess due to inclement weather, if the dominoes start to fall, we’ll be looking at 2013 and 2014 all over again. Actually, we might be longing for the days of 2013 and 2014.

With the Yankees’ recent luck of injuries, I can easily see Teixeira spending the majority of the season on the disabled list (and you know if Bird were healthy, Teixeira wouldn’t get hurt all season, but be unproductive, while Bird raked in Triple-A), which would make Dustin Ackley the Yankees’ everyday first baseman. Between Ackley at first and Chase Headley at third, the Yankees will have two non-power hitters in two spots that, which need power. In that scenario, and with Brett Gardner in left field, the Yankees’ lone corner power hitter would be Carlos Beltran, and counting on the soon-to-be 39-year-old to not only contribute the way he should at $15 million, but also stay healthy isn’t exactly assuring. The Yankees could get by if they had a power hitter in a non-traditional power spot, like say second base, but they no longer have that luxury. Sure, this isn’t exactly the most positive line of thinking, but when your 23-year-old first baseman of the future goes down for the season, and you’re now desperately relying on your 31-year-old catcher (will be 32 on Feb. 20), 35-year-old first baseman (will be 36 on April 11), 38-year-old right fielder (will be 39 on April 24) and 40-year-old designated hitter (will be 41 on July 27) to not only stay healthy, but be productive, it’s important to think about the worst-case scenarios.

You might think this is overreacting to an injury to a player that was going to start the season in Triple-A, if Teixeira were to remain healthy come Opening Day, but it’s not. Bird was going to play a role for the Yankees this season even if Brian Cashman wants to pretend like you can suddenly bet on Teixeira’s health like he’s American Pharoah at Churchill Downs. And without Greg Bird last season, the Yankees don’t make the playoffs. They won a wild-card berth by two games and won home-field in the wild-card by one game on the last day of the season thanks to an Astros loss (not that it mattered). Take away Bird’s performance, while in for Teixeira and the Yankees would have been postseason-less for three straight years (even though it’s basically like they were).

Bird seamlessly fit in for Teixeira when he went down with a bone bruise, which turned out to be a broken leg, and was as good, if not better than Teixeira, giving the Yankees their first promising look into the future for a position player since Robinson Cano debuted in 2005.  Bird hit .261/.343/.529 in 178 plate appearances, while Teixeira hit .255/.357/.548 in 462 plate appearances. Combine their power and they hit 41 home runs with 110 RBIs. Together, Mark Teixeira and Greg Bird were a Top 3 AL MVP finalist.

Teixeira played 111 games last year. He played 123 games in 2014. He played 15 games in 2013. He played 123 games in 2012. In the last few years, he has missed time due to wrist surgery, pain and discomfort from that wrist surgery, a pulled hamstring, injuries to his rib cage and knee and lat, tired legs from being on the bases(!), light-headedness and an injury to his pinky sliding into home. There’s a 100 percent chance Teixeira misses time this year either due to an actual injury or something comical like having tired legs from being on the bases. This is the guy that complained about the length of playing baseball games in Sept. 2011, saying, “I can’t stand playing a nine-inning game in four hours. It’s not baseball. I don’t even know how to describe it.” This is a guy who has made $189.9 million in his life playing the game he doesn’t know how to describe and will make another $23.125 million this season. You can guarantee he’s going to get hurt this season.

Last season, we got a glimpse into the future of a real prospect for the first time in 10-plus years, and it’s been taken away. Greg Bird was the future at first base for the Yankees. Now, we need to hope he still is.

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The State of Brian Cashman: January Edition

As usual, when Brian Cashmans talks, I listen and then react to answers, and I did once again following his most recent comments on the state of the Yankees on YES’ Hot Stove show.

Brian Cashman

It’s Day 19 of the 60-Day Gauntlet, which is what I refer to as the 60 days in January and February. (Well, 60 this year.) With the Giants’ season not reaching the playoffs for the fourth straight year and the Rangers having last won back-to-back games on Nov. 21 and 23 and the first real snowstorm of the season expected this Saturday, the Gauntlet is in full effect. The hope for March and spring training and Yankees baseball and eventually Opening Day and spring feels like a lost cause when the temperature is single digits outside, while my other sports teams fail to pick up the slack.

Luckily, Brian Cashman was a guest on YES’ Hot Stove show this week to talk about the Yankees to give Yankees fans their winter fix. As usual, when Brian Cashmans talks, I listen and then react to answers, and I did once again following his most recent comments on the state of the Yankees.

(Thanks to Yankees beat writer Chad Jennings of The Journal News and the LoHud Yankees Blog and guest of the Keefe To The City Podcast for transcribing and posting Cashman’s quotes.)

On Starlin Castro backing up third base.

“That would be ideal. One of the exciting upsides to the Castro acquisition would be that he played shortstop. He was athletic enough to play shortstop. That’s the left side of the infield. He’s got the arm, he’s got the athleticism, that a transition to third should be in the cards. It doesn’t guarantee it, but we saw him play second and play second so well down the stretch there with the Cubs, and we will definitely take a look at him at third.”

Unfortunately, Chase Headley is going to be a Yankee this year … and next year … and the year after that. If Castro could be a full-time third baseman, I would be all for putting Castro at third and Rob Refsnyder at second and not having an automatic out in the lineup. There’s no reason Castro couldn’t be a full-time third baseman either. He was a shortstop and seamlessly transitioned to second, so he clearly has the athleticism needed to play third. He might not have the stereotypical power that the Yankees are used to at third, but neither does Headley. The only hope here is that Headley hits this year and doesn’t make an error per series. That would be nice for a $13 million player.

“If Castro can do that, it gives us so much more flexibility with that 25th man on the roster. (At times) the 25th man could very well be a 13th pitcher. As we all know, our starting rotation isn’t seven, eight, nine-inning pitchers on a consistent basis, so having maybe the access to that 13th up-and-down guy or maybe an extra position player that you can utilize in a different way. I think that’s vitally important to the weekly basis of how we can align based on the circumstances at the time.”

To say the starting rotation isn’t seven- or eight- or nine-inning pitchers on a consistent basis is the biggest understatement of all time. Masahiro Tanaka, Michael Pineda and CC Sabathia each has one complete game last year. Nathan Eovaldi has never pitched a complete game in his 106 career starts and Luis Severino has pitched seven innings in the majors once. This is why Cashman traded for Aroldis Chapman and why it would be a mistake to trade Andrew Miller. There’s a very real possibility the trio of Dellin Betances, Miller and Chapman could get the Yankees 12 outs in crucial games, which would mean the rotation would need to go just five innings. Six strong innings with this bullpen would be the perfect formula for the 2016 Yankees.

On the 25th roster spot serving as the Scranton Express for a different reliever nearly every day, let’s hope Joe Girardi doesn’t decide to use the 25th man to face Josh Donaldson, Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion in the eighth inning of a tie game.

On the plan for Greg Bird.

“I think more likely he’ll start at Scranton. But as we experienced last year, there’s a lot of injuries that come our way and it’s nice to have Greg Bird waiting in the wings. … If that situation with roster occurs where Castro can swing over (to be the backup at third base and shortstop), it gives us the opportunity if we’re facing a scenario (against some right-handed pitchers) where we can have (Bird) up to spell Tex for a day.”

The idea that the last year of Mark Teixeira’s disastrous contract is stunting the growth of Greg Bird as an everyday player in the majors is incredible. Bird hit .261/.343/.529 in 46 games with 11 home runs and 31 RBIs in 178 plate appearances and is more than ready to be the Yankees’ first baseman, but as long as Teixeira is healthy, Bird is going to be in Triple-A. While I’m upset about this, I’m not that upset because there’s a 100 percent chance Teixeira gets hurt this season. Whether it’s his wrist or leg or pinky or hamstring or getting light-headed or having tired legs, Teixeira is going to miss games and end up on the disabled list at least once. I’ve looked, but Las Vegas doesn’t even have odds on Teixeira getting hurt the same way they don’t post a money line for Duke vs. Central Connecticut in basketball. In the last four seasons, Teixeira has played 123 games (2012), 15 games (2013), 123 games (2014) and 111 games (2015). It’s not a matter of if Teixeira and if Bird will get his chance this season, it’s a matter of when.

“Tex is significantly younger than Alex. I fully expect Tex to be the same (as last season). Alex, at this stage in his career, you just don’t know (what to expect).”

Mark Teixeira will be 36 on April 11. A-Rod will be 41 on July 27. That is significantly younger, especially in baseball years, but with A-Rod coming off a full season, having been able to rest for the entire 2014 season and now being a full-time DH, I actually think A-Rod plays younger than Teixeira. The idea that Cashman believes more in Teixeira to have the same season when his health is constantly in question over A-Rod, who only needs to worry about hitting, is weird. I fully expect A-Rod to be the same as last season. Teixeira, at this stage in his career, you just don’t know.

On last year’s second-half decline of Jacoby Ellsbury.

“I think when (Ellsbury) came back, the best explanation that makes sense from all parties involved was that, although the knee physically got healed, he developed bad mechanics and mentally not necessarily trusting 100 percent and so never got back in rhythm.”

Ah, my favorite topic: Jacoby Ellsbury. The Thief and the fraud of all frauds. It was nice of Ellsbury to tweet a video of him working out last week as a way to plant the idea in Yankees fans’ minds that he is going to be stronger and healthier this season. To refresh your memory: Ellsbury is owed $21.1 million this year … and next year … and the year after that … and the year after that … and the year after that … and there’s a $21 million club option with a $5 million buyout on him for 2021. (That $5 million is now a guarantee.) It’s nice that Ellsbury has Cashman to make excuses for him since I’m still waiting to hear his excuse for giving Ellsbury a seven-year, $153 million deal when they didn’t need him and didn’t need to outbid themselves for him on a market that hadn’t even developed.

In two years, Ellsbury has played 260 games and hit .265/.324./.387 with 23 home runs and 103 RBIs, which is what many thought he would do in one season playing his home games in Yankee Stadium with his swing. He went 0-for-1 in his only postseason at-bat in the Wild-Card Game after starting the game on the bench. Ellsbury has been the worst contract in the history of the Yankees through two seasons and the only way that’s going to change is if Cashman’s analysis is right and Ellsbury couldn’t return to being the same player he was before he went on the disabled list. I’m not holding my breath.

On last year’s second-half decline of Brett Gardner.

“… (Gardner) is a lot like Derek Jeter. He does not tell you if anything’s bothering him at all. He makes us a little bit like veterinarians at times, trying to have to guess what’s going on. … The only thing we have to probably learn more so than not (with Gardner) is just to kind of trust what we’re seeing on the field. And if it’s not the normal performance, back off.”

When my dog won’t eat, I know he either doesn’t feel good or needs to go to the bathroom. If he won’t eat a treat, same thing. If he won’t play, same thing. It’s pretty easy. When Brett Gardner hits .258 over 1,292 plate appearances and steals 67 bases over his last 460 games over four seasons, it’s not because of some mysterious injury and it certainly doesn’t take a veterinarian-like approach to figure out what’s wrong. The diagnosis is that Brett Gardner just isn’t very good and certainly isn’t as good as the Yankees think he is.

I will never understand why the Yankees gave Ellsbury a seven-year, $153 million deal when they already had an identical player in Gardner on the team: a streaky left-handed hitter with speed, who relies on his legs to be successful. I have long said that Gardner is the streakiest hitter in Major League Baseball, but if he is No. 1 then Ellsbury is 1-A. There was never a need for the two of them on the same team and when their cold streaks happen at the same time, well you get the type of collapse the Yankees had in the AL East over the last two months of the season.

Gardner should have been traded this offseason, especially after the Yankees acquired Aaron Hicks, and maybe he still will be. There’s no need for Ellsbury and Gardner on the same roster and since no team is going to take on Ellsbury’s contract (though I’m holding out hope), Gardner should be the odd man out.

On the emergence of Gary Sanchez.

“I think a year ago, the light bulb went on where he really cares about the end result. He’s hungry for a big career, not just being a part of anything. … He’s always had the (offensive) thunder there, but the defense is coming along so much that it gave us the opportunity to move John Ryan Murphy.”

“He’s a middle-of-the-lineup caliber future bat potential with a tick below Pudge Rodriguez type arm and much improved framing. … He’s an interesting upside player, there’s no doubt about it.”

It seems like Cashman wanted to somehow touch on nearly all of his bad free-agent signings following the 2013 season. The Yankees never needed Brian McCann. At the time, catcher was their deepest position of strength with Francisco Cervelli, Austin Romine, John Ryan Murphy and Gary Sanchez. The trade for McCann eventually sent Cervelli to Pittsburgh where he hit .295/.370/.401 last season as the everyday catcher for the 98-win Pirates. McCann’s five-year deal has also now seen Murphy get traded to Minnesota and Gary Sanchez stuck as his back-up for at least the next three seasons. Sure, none of the Yankees’ internal options would have given the Yankees 49 home runs over the last two seasons, but it would have also saved them from a .232 average and .303 on-base percentage. Like Ellsbury, McCann isn’t going anywhere, so the Gary Sanchez era will have to wait until 2019 (unless like Teixeira an injury comes into play). If Sanchez is as good as Cashman claims he is, well that just sucks.

On the uncertain rotation.

“It did force us to entertain and float a lot of weather balloons on players that have significant interest to us, whether it was Brett Gardner or Andrew Miller.

“There’s definitely a lot of question marks. We certainly approached the winter trying to find ways to improve the rotation if possible. Nothing took place because nothing presented themselves as an opportunity to pull down. So, we move forward. That’s why the strengthening of the bullpen turned out to be so important for us with Aroldis Chapman’s addition.”

Trade Brett Gardner? Yes. Trade Andrew Miller? Absolutely not. The Yankees can afford to get rid of Gardner even if it gets them a middle-to-back-end rotation option. The Yankees can only afford to get rid of Miller if they somehow get a front-end starter in return, which a setup man/closer isn’t going to get you.

The Yankees’ current rotation is Masahiro Tanaka, Luis Severino, Michael Pineda, Nathan Eovaldi and CC Sabathia with Ivan Nova and Bryan Mitchell as the next two in line should an injury present itself. It’s not the best rotation in baseball, but it doesn’t have to be with Betances, Miller and Chapman. Even as shaky as that lineup not only looks on paper, but also in real life, it’s still probably the best rotation in the AL East, which is all it has to be.

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Brian Cashman Triumphs Through Trade Again

The Yankees need two general managers. One that does the trades and one that does the free-agent signings the way a football team might have two kickers, one specifically for kickoffs and one for field goals.

Aroldis Chapman

(Editor’s note: I don’t know what’s going to happen to Aroldis Chapman when it comes to the domestic violence allegations from early December that caused his trade to the Dodgers to fall through. But for the sake of this column, I’m going to write as if he’s going to play the entire 2015 season.)

The Yankees need two general managers. One that does the trades (Brian Cashman) and one that does the free-agent signings the way a football team might have two kickers, one specifically for kickoffs and one for field goals. There’s no doubt that Cashman is the master of trades in Major League Baseball and he once again proved it on Monday by acquiring Aroldis Chapman from the Reds.

So far this offseason, Cashman has made five trades:

Nov. 11: Traded 2B Jose Pirela to Padres for RHP Ronald Herrera.

Nov. 11: Traded C John Ryan Murphy to Twins for CF Aaron Hicks.

Dec. 8: Traded RHP Adam Warren and 2B Brendan Ryan to Cubs for 2B Starlin Castro.

Dec. 9: Traded LHP Justin Wilson to Tigers for RHP Chad Green and RHP Luis Cessa.

Dec. 27: Traded RHP Caleb Cotham, RHP Rookie Davis, 3B Eric Jagielo and 2B Tony Renda to Reds for LHP Aroldis Chapman.

To put it as one big trade …

The Yankees traded:

2B Jose Pirela
C John Ryan Murphy
RHP Adam Warren
2B Brendan Ryan
LHP Justin Wilson
RHP Caleb Cotham
RHP Rookie Davis
3B Eric Jagielo
2B Tony Renda

FOR

RHP Ronald Herrera
CF Aaron Hicks
2B Starlin Castro
RHP Chad Green
RHP Luis Cessa
LHP Aroldis Chapman

Essentially, the Yankees traded a player they felt had no real position (Pirela), a backup catcher they could afford to lose because of depth (Murphy), a pitcher they have no set role for (Warren), a utility infielder who can’t hit (Ryan), a left-handed middle reliever who’s good but not great (Wilson) and four minor leaguers for the 14th overall pick in 2008 (Hicks), a 25-year middle infielder with 991 hits whose under team control for five more years (Castro), arguably the best closer in all of baseball (Chapman) and two minor leaguers. (Side note: With Cotham traded and Andrew Bailey now with the Phillies, Joe Girardi is running out of terrible right-handed options to face the heart of the Blue Jays’ order though I guess he can always turn to Branden Pinder.)

Last offseason, I wanted the Yankees to sign Andrew Miller and also re-sign David Robertson. I thought the Yankees needed to have both to go along with Dellin Betances to make up for the instability of their rotation. They didn’t and were fortunate that Justin Wilson was good and that Chasen Shreve was good for most of the season, especially when Miller went down for an extended period of time. The Yankees tried to redo their decision to only sign Miller when they made a push for Craig Kimbrel at the trade deadline and were willing to give up actual players and real prospects for Kimbrel rather than just giving up money for Robertson in the winter, which is the opposite of how they have normally done business.

I haven’t understood this offseason why Brian Cashman has been willing to trade Andrew Miller if the price is right. The Yankees’ only true strength is the back end of their bullpen, so to trade Miller before and even after the Chapman trade made and makes no sense. Sure, the Yankees could afford to trade one of their three bullpen stars, but with a potential suspension surrounding Chapman as well as the idea that someone who consistently throws 100-plus mph could have arm trouble at any second, the bullpen should be treated like the rotation in that you can never have enough arms.

Right now, the Yankees’ rotation is Masahiro Tanaka, Luis Severino, Michael Pineda, CC Sabathia, Nathan Eovaldi and Ivan Nova. With Tanaka’s elbow still (and I’m guessing always will be) a concern, Severino looking to pitch his first full season in the majors, Pineda having never made more than 28 starts in a season, Sabathia coming off another knee injury and his rehab stint for alcohol, Eovaldi having his season cut short due to elbow inflammation and Nova coming off Tommy John surgery and pitching to a 5.65 ERA over his last 21 starts, the rotation isn’t exactly something to believe in.

With Betances and Miller, the Yankees were able to turn games into seven-inning games. With Chapman added to the mix, their games will now be six-inning games, and you could make the case that if each of them gets four outs, you have a five-inning game with the three pitchers with the highest strikeout percentage in the majors over the last two seasons. The only problem with this unbeatable formula is I don’t know how the Yankees are going to get a lead for the trio to protect. That’s a problem for the master of trades to solve.

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