I guess I won’t have to waste a million words this season writing about how Greg Bird should be the Yankees’ starting first baseman over Mark Teixeira even though Teixeira will make $23 million this year. Now I just have to hope I don’t waste a million words next season once again longing for Bird to be the Yankees’ starting first baseman. I will spend the next year desperately hoping for 2015 Greg Bird to show up in 2017, completely fixed from his shoulder surgery and not suffering any setbacks, and not skipping a beat from the last time we saw him on the field in the wild-card game.

There’s a chance Bird won’t be ready for 2017 and there’s a chance he won’t be as productive as he once was and there’s a chance he won’t be able to be the first baseman of the future. The Yankees aren’t about to go into 2017 without an insurance policy at first base and that most likely means Mark Teixeira won’t have to move from Greenwich anytime soon. Aside from the actual problem of Bird being originally told to rest and rehab his shoulder and now he will miss the entire season after surgery, the other here is that Bird’s absence sets up a potential terrible chain reaction. Like a 75-yard chain of dominoes built during indoor recess due to inclement weather, if the dominoes start to fall, we’ll be looking at 2013 and 2014 all over again. Actually, we might be longing for the days of 2013 and 2014.

With the Yankees’ recent luck of injuries, I can easily see Teixeira spending the majority of the season on the disabled list (and you know if Bird were healthy, Teixeira wouldn’t get hurt all season, but be unproductive, while Bird raked in Triple-A), which would make Dustin Ackley the Yankees’ everyday first baseman. Between Ackley at first and Chase Headley at third, the Yankees will have two non-power hitters in two spots that, which need power. In that scenario, and with Brett Gardner in left field, the Yankees’ lone corner power hitter would be Carlos Beltran, and counting on the soon-to-be 39-year-old to not only contribute the way he should at $15 million, but also stay healthy isn’t exactly assuring. The Yankees could get by if they had a power hitter in a non-traditional power spot, like say second base, but they no longer have that luxury. Sure, this isn’t exactly the most positive line of thinking, but when your 23-year-old first baseman of the future goes down for the season, and you’re now desperately relying on your 31-year-old catcher (will be 32 on Feb. 20), 35-year-old first baseman (will be 36 on April 11), 38-year-old right fielder (will be 39 on April 24) and 40-year-old designated hitter (will be 41 on July 27) to not only stay healthy, but be productive, it’s important to think about the worst-case scenarios.

You might think this is overreacting to an injury to a player that was going to start the season in Triple-A, if Teixeira were to remain healthy come Opening Day, but it’s not. Bird was going to play a role for the Yankees this season even if Brian Cashman wants to pretend like you can suddenly bet on Teixeira’s health like he’s American Pharoah at Churchill Downs. And without Greg Bird last season, the Yankees don’t make the playoffs. They won a wild-card berth by two games and won home-field in the wild-card by one game on the last day of the season thanks to an Astros loss (not that it mattered). Take away Bird’s performance, while in for Teixeira and the Yankees would have been postseason-less for three straight years (even though it’s basically like they were).

Bird seamlessly fit in for Teixeira when he went down with a bone bruise, which turned out to be a broken leg, and was as good, if not better than Teixeira, giving the Yankees their first promising look into the future for a position player since Robinson Cano debuted in 2005.  Bird hit .261/.343/.529 in 178 plate appearances, while Teixeira hit .255/.357/.548 in 462 plate appearances. Combine their power and they hit 41 home runs with 110 RBIs. Together, Mark Teixeira and Greg Bird were a Top 3 AL MVP finalist.

Teixeira played 111 games last year. He played 123 games in 2014. He played 15 games in 2013. He played 123 games in 2012. In the last few years, he has missed time due to wrist surgery, pain and discomfort from that wrist surgery, a pulled hamstring, injuries to his rib cage and knee and lat, tired legs from being on the bases(!), light-headedness and an injury to his pinky sliding into home. There’s a 100 percent chance Teixeira misses time this year either due to an actual injury or something comical like having tired legs from being on the bases. This is the guy that complained about the length of playing baseball games in Sept. 2011, saying, “I can’t stand playing a nine-inning game in four hours. It’s not baseball. I don’t even know how to describe it.” This is a guy who has made $189.9 million in his life playing the game he doesn’t know how to describe and will make another $23.125 million this season. You can guarantee he’s going to get hurt this season.

Last season, we got a glimpse into the future of a real prospect for the first time in 10-plus years, and it’s been taken away. Greg Bird was the future at first base for the Yankees. Now, we need to hope he still is.

It’s Day 19 of the 60-Day Gauntlet, which is what I refer to as the 60 days in January and February. (Well, 60 this year.) With the Giants’ season not reaching the playoffs for the fourth straight year and the Rangers having last won back-to-back games on Nov. 21 and 23 and the first real snowstorm of the season expected this Saturday, the Gauntlet is in full effect. The hope for March and spring training and Yankees baseball and eventually Opening Day and spring feels like a lost cause when the temperature is single digits outside, while my other sports teams fail to pick up the slack.

Luckily, Brian Cashman was a guest on YES’ Hot Stove show this week to talk about the Yankees to give Yankees fans their winter fix. As usual, when Brian Cashmans talks, I listen and then react to answers, and I did once again following his most recent comments on the state of the Yankees.

(Thanks to Yankees beat writer Chad Jennings of The Journal News and the LoHud Yankees Blog and guest of the Keefe To The City Podcast for transcribing and posting Cashman’s quotes.)

On Starlin Castro backing up third base.

“That would be ideal. One of the exciting upsides to the Castro acquisition would be that he played shortstop. He was athletic enough to play shortstop. That’s the left side of the infield. He’s got the arm, he’s got the athleticism, that a transition to third should be in the cards. It doesn’t guarantee it, but we saw him play second and play second so well down the stretch there with the Cubs, and we will definitely take a look at him at third.”

Unfortunately, Chase Headley is going to be a Yankee this year … and next year … and the year after that. If Castro could be a full-time third baseman, I would be all for putting Castro at third and Rob Refsnyder at second and not having an automatic out in the lineup. There’s no reason Castro couldn’t be a full-time third baseman either. He was a shortstop and seamlessly transitioned to second, so he clearly has the athleticism needed to play third. He might not have the stereotypical power that the Yankees are used to at third, but neither does Headley. The only hope here is that Headley hits this year and doesn’t make an error per series. That would be nice for a $13 million player.

“If Castro can do that, it gives us so much more flexibility with that 25th man on the roster. (At times) the 25th man could very well be a 13th pitcher. As we all know, our starting rotation isn’t seven, eight, nine-inning pitchers on a consistent basis, so having maybe the access to that 13th up-and-down guy or maybe an extra position player that you can utilize in a different way. I think that’s vitally important to the weekly basis of how we can align based on the circumstances at the time.”

To say the starting rotation isn’t seven- or eight- or nine-inning pitchers on a consistent basis is the biggest understatement of all time. Masahiro Tanaka, Michael Pineda and CC Sabathia each has one complete game last year. Nathan Eovaldi has never pitched a complete game in his 106 career starts and Luis Severino has pitched seven innings in the majors once. This is why Cashman traded for Aroldis Chapman and why it would be a mistake to trade Andrew Miller. There’s a very real possibility the trio of Dellin Betances, Miller and Chapman could get the Yankees 12 outs in crucial games, which would mean the rotation would need to go just five innings. Six strong innings with this bullpen would be the perfect formula for the 2016 Yankees.

On the 25th roster spot serving as the Scranton Express for a different reliever nearly every day, let’s hope Joe Girardi doesn’t decide to use the 25th man to face Josh Donaldson, Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion in the eighth inning of a tie game.

On the plan for Greg Bird.

“I think more likely he’ll start at Scranton. But as we experienced last year, there’s a lot of injuries that come our way and it’s nice to have Greg Bird waiting in the wings. … If that situation with roster occurs where Castro can swing over (to be the backup at third base and shortstop), it gives us the opportunity if we’re facing a scenario (against some right-handed pitchers) where we can have (Bird) up to spell Tex for a day.”

The idea that the last year of Mark Teixeira’s disastrous contract is stunting the growth of Greg Bird as an everyday player in the majors is incredible. Bird hit .261/.343/.529 in 46 games with 11 home runs and 31 RBIs in 178 plate appearances and is more than ready to be the Yankees’ first baseman, but as long as Teixeira is healthy, Bird is going to be in Triple-A. While I’m upset about this, I’m not that upset because there’s a 100 percent chance Teixeira gets hurt this season. Whether it’s his wrist or leg or pinky or hamstring or getting light-headed or having tired legs, Teixeira is going to miss games and end up on the disabled list at least once. I’ve looked, but Las Vegas doesn’t even have odds on Teixeira getting hurt the same way they don’t post a money line for Duke vs. Central Connecticut in basketball. In the last four seasons, Teixeira has played 123 games (2012), 15 games (2013), 123 games (2014) and 111 games (2015). It’s not a matter of if Teixeira and if Bird will get his chance this season, it’s a matter of when.

“Tex is significantly younger than Alex. I fully expect Tex to be the same (as last season). Alex, at this stage in his career, you just don’t know (what to expect).”

Mark Teixeira will be 36 on April 11. A-Rod will be 41 on July 27. That is significantly younger, especially in baseball years, but with A-Rod coming off a full season, having been able to rest for the entire 2014 season and now being a full-time DH, I actually think A-Rod plays younger than Teixeira. The idea that Cashman believes more in Teixeira to have the same season when his health is constantly in question over A-Rod, who only needs to worry about hitting, is weird. I fully expect A-Rod to be the same as last season. Teixeira, at this stage in his career, you just don’t know.

On last year’s second-half decline of Jacoby Ellsbury.

“I think when (Ellsbury) came back, the best explanation that makes sense from all parties involved was that, although the knee physically got healed, he developed bad mechanics and mentally not necessarily trusting 100 percent and so never got back in rhythm.”

Ah, my favorite topic: Jacoby Ellsbury. The Thief and the fraud of all frauds. It was nice of Ellsbury to tweet a video of him working out last week as a way to plant the idea in Yankees fans’ minds that he is going to be stronger and healthier this season. To refresh your memory: Ellsbury is owed $21.1 million this year … and next year … and the year after that … and the year after that … and the year after that … and there’s a $21 million club option with a $5 million buyout on him for 2021. (That $5 million is now a guarantee.) It’s nice that Ellsbury has Cashman to make excuses for him since I’m still waiting to hear his excuse for giving Ellsbury a seven-year, $153 million deal when they didn’t need him and didn’t need to outbid themselves for him on a market that hadn’t even developed.

In two years, Ellsbury has played 260 games and hit .265/.324./.387 with 23 home runs and 103 RBIs, which is what many thought he would do in one season playing his home games in Yankee Stadium with his swing. He went 0-for-1 in his only postseason at-bat in the Wild-Card Game after starting the game on the bench. Ellsbury has been the worst contract in the history of the Yankees through two seasons and the only way that’s going to change is if Cashman’s analysis is right and Ellsbury couldn’t return to being the same player he was before he went on the disabled list. I’m not holding my breath.

On last year’s second-half decline of Brett Gardner.

“… (Gardner) is a lot like Derek Jeter. He does not tell you if anything’s bothering him at all. He makes us a little bit like veterinarians at times, trying to have to guess what’s going on. … The only thing we have to probably learn more so than not (with Gardner) is just to kind of trust what we’re seeing on the field. And if it’s not the normal performance, back off.”

When my dog won’t eat, I know he either doesn’t feel good or needs to go to the bathroom. If he won’t eat a treat, same thing. If he won’t play, same thing. It’s pretty easy. When Brett Gardner hits .258 over 1,292 plate appearances and steals 67 bases over his last 460 games over four seasons, it’s not because of some mysterious injury and it certainly doesn’t take a veterinarian-like approach to figure out what’s wrong. The diagnosis is that Brett Gardner just isn’t very good and certainly isn’t as good as the Yankees think he is.

I will never understand why the Yankees gave Ellsbury a seven-year, $153 million deal when they already had an identical player in Gardner on the team: a streaky left-handed hitter with speed, who relies on his legs to be successful. I have long said that Gardner is the streakiest hitter in Major League Baseball, but if he is No. 1 then Ellsbury is 1-A. There was never a need for the two of them on the same team and when their cold streaks happen at the same time, well you get the type of collapse the Yankees had in the AL East over the last two months of the season.

Gardner should have been traded this offseason, especially after the Yankees acquired Aaron Hicks, and maybe he still will be. There’s no need for Ellsbury and Gardner on the same roster and since no team is going to take on Ellsbury’s contract (though I’m holding out hope), Gardner should be the odd man out.

On the emergence of Gary Sanchez.

“I think a year ago, the light bulb went on where he really cares about the end result. He’s hungry for a big career, not just being a part of anything. … He’s always had the (offensive) thunder there, but the defense is coming along so much that it gave us the opportunity to move John Ryan Murphy.”

“He’s a middle-of-the-lineup caliber future bat potential with a tick below Pudge Rodriguez type arm and much improved framing. … He’s an interesting upside player, there’s no doubt about it.”

It seems like Cashman wanted to somehow touch on nearly all of his bad free-agent signings following the 2013 season. The Yankees never needed Brian McCann. At the time, catcher was their deepest position of strength with Francisco Cervelli, Austin Romine, John Ryan Murphy and Gary Sanchez. The trade for McCann eventually sent Cervelli to Pittsburgh where he hit .295/.370/.401 last season as the everyday catcher for the 98-win Pirates. McCann’s five-year deal has also now seen Murphy get traded to Minnesota and Gary Sanchez stuck as his back-up for at least the next three seasons. Sure, none of the Yankees’ internal options would have given the Yankees 49 home runs over the last two seasons, but it would have also saved them from a .232 average and .303 on-base percentage. Like Ellsbury, McCann isn’t going anywhere, so the Gary Sanchez era will have to wait until 2019 (unless like Teixeira an injury comes into play). If Sanchez is as good as Cashman claims he is, well that just sucks.

On the uncertain rotation.

“It did force us to entertain and float a lot of weather balloons on players that have significant interest to us, whether it was Brett Gardner or Andrew Miller.

“There’s definitely a lot of question marks. We certainly approached the winter trying to find ways to improve the rotation if possible. Nothing took place because nothing presented themselves as an opportunity to pull down. So, we move forward. That’s why the strengthening of the bullpen turned out to be so important for us with Aroldis Chapman’s addition.”

Trade Brett Gardner? Yes. Trade Andrew Miller? Absolutely not. The Yankees can afford to get rid of Gardner even if it gets them a middle-to-back-end rotation option. The Yankees can only afford to get rid of Miller if they somehow get a front-end starter in return, which a setup man/closer isn’t going to get you.

The Yankees’ current rotation is Masahiro Tanaka, Luis Severino, Michael Pineda, Nathan Eovaldi and CC Sabathia with Ivan Nova and Bryan Mitchell as the next two in line should an injury present itself. It’s not the best rotation in baseball, but it doesn’t have to be with Betances, Miller and Chapman. Even as shaky as that lineup not only looks on paper, but also in real life, it’s still probably the best rotation in the AL East, which is all it has to be.

(Editor’s note: I don’t know what’s going to happen to Aroldis Chapman when it comes to the domestic violence allegations from early December that caused his trade to the Dodgers to fall through. But for the sake of this column, I’m going to write as if he’s going to play the entire 2015 season.)

The Yankees need two general managers. One that does the trades (Brian Cashman) and one that does the free-agent signings the way a football team might have two kickers, one specifically for kickoffs and one for field goals. There’s no doubt that Cashman is the master of trades in Major League Baseball and he once again proved it on Monday by acquiring Aroldis Chapman from the Reds.

So far this offseason, Cashman has made five trades:

Nov. 11: Traded 2B Jose Pirela to Padres for RHP Ronald Herrera.

Nov. 11: Traded C John Ryan Murphy to Twins for CF Aaron Hicks.

Dec. 8: Traded RHP Adam Warren and 2B Brendan Ryan to Cubs for 2B Starlin Castro.

Dec. 9: Traded LHP Justin Wilson to Tigers for RHP Chad Green and RHP Luis Cessa.

Dec. 27: Traded RHP Caleb Cotham, RHP Rookie Davis, 3B Eric Jagielo and 2B Tony Renda to Reds for LHP Aroldis Chapman.

To put it as one big trade …

The Yankees traded:

2B Jose Pirela
C John Ryan Murphy
RHP Adam Warren
2B Brendan Ryan
LHP Justin Wilson
RHP Caleb Cotham
RHP Rookie Davis
3B Eric Jagielo
2B Tony Renda

FOR

RHP Ronald Herrera
CF Aaron Hicks
2B Starlin Castro
RHP Chad Green
RHP Luis Cessa
LHP Aroldis Chapman

Essentially, the Yankees traded a player they felt had no real position (Pirela), a backup catcher they could afford to lose because of depth (Murphy), a pitcher they have no set role for (Warren), a utility infielder who can’t hit (Ryan), a left-handed middle reliever who’s good but not great (Wilson) and four minor leaguers for the 14th overall pick in 2008 (Hicks), a 25-year middle infielder with 991 hits whose under team control for five more years (Castro), arguably the best closer in all of baseball (Chapman) and two minor leaguers. (Side note: With Cotham traded and Andrew Bailey now with the Phillies, Joe Girardi is running out of terrible right-handed options to face the heart of the Blue Jays’ order though I guess he can always turn to Branden Pinder.)

Last offseason, I wanted the Yankees to sign Andrew Miller and also re-sign David Robertson. I thought the Yankees needed to have both to go along with Dellin Betances to make up for the instability of their rotation. They didn’t and were fortunate that Justin Wilson was good and that Chasen Shreve was good for most of the season, especially when Miller went down for an extended period of time. The Yankees tried to redo their decision to only sign Miller when they made a push for Craig Kimbrel at the trade deadline and were willing to give up actual players and real prospects for Kimbrel rather than just giving up money for Robertson in the winter, which is the opposite of how they have normally done business.

I haven’t understood this offseason why Brian Cashman has been willing to trade Andrew Miller if the price is right. The Yankees’ only true strength is the back end of their bullpen, so to trade Miller before and even after the Chapman trade made and makes no sense. Sure, the Yankees could afford to trade one of their three bullpen stars, but with a potential suspension surrounding Chapman as well as the idea that someone who consistently throws 100-plus mph could have arm trouble at any second, the bullpen should be treated like the rotation in that you can never have enough arms.

Right now, the Yankees’ rotation is Masahiro Tanaka, Luis Severino, Michael Pineda, CC Sabathia, Nathan Eovaldi and Ivan Nova. With Tanaka’s elbow still (and I’m guessing always will be) a concern, Severino looking to pitch his first full season in the majors, Pineda having never made more than 28 starts in a season, Sabathia coming off another knee injury and his rehab stint for alcohol, Eovaldi having his season cut short due to elbow inflammation and Nova coming off Tommy John surgery and pitching to a 5.65 ERA over his last 21 starts, the rotation isn’t exactly something to believe in.

With Betances and Miller, the Yankees were able to turn games into seven-inning games. With Chapman added to the mix, their games will now be six-inning games, and you could make the case that if each of them gets four outs, you have a five-inning game with the three pitchers with the highest strikeout percentage in the majors over the last two seasons. The only problem with this unbeatable formula is I don’t know how the Yankees are going to get a lead for the trio to protect. That’s a problem for the master of trades to solve.

The baseball season has been over two weeks. Well, the Yankees’ season has been over for two weeks, and to me, that’s the baseball season. So with the season in the books, let’s look at the results from my predictions for 2015 MLB Over/Under Wins.

OVERS

San Francisco Giants – 82 (84-78, WIN)
I said, “I realize this is an odd-numbered year and that means that the Giants are likely to miss the playoffs and then bounce back and win the World Series next year the way they did in 2010, 2012 and 2014,” and the Giants didn’t make the playoffs and therefore won’t win the World Series, but they did win more than 82 games.

The Giants have only won fewer than 82 games once since 2009 and with the core of their World Series-winning team intact, it didn’t make sense that their line was this low. Unless Vegas thought that the departure of Pablo Sandoval was somehow going to make the Giants a bad team in a season in which he was asked to no longer switch-hit and became one of the worst everyday players in the league. (Good luck with that remaining $78 million, Boston!)

New York Yankees – 82.5 (87-75, WIN)
This was the easiest of them all. The last time the Yankees won less than 83 games was 1992 and even for as many question marks as they had in the spring training, they were never going to go 82-80 or worse.

This is the first thing I have written about the Yankees since they lost the wild-card game because I’m still not over them getting into the playoffs and then losing to the second wild card against the one pitcher in the world they couldn’t face. I will get over it eventually.

New York Mets – 83 (90-72, WIN)
Last season Sandy Alderson talked about the Mets winning 90 games and he was a year late. The Mets finished the season with Alderson’s magic number and won the NL East for the first time since 2006 and now they testing my patience as a baseball fan by being as close as they have been to the World Series since 2006.

The Mets can’t make the World Series, but if they happen to, they can’t win. The Blue Jays or Royals have to beat them. They have to. The Mets can’t win the World Series.

San Diego Padres – 84 (76-86, LOSS)
Whoops. I thought the addition of Matt Kemp, Wil Myers, Justin Upton, James Shields and Craig Kimbrel would change the Padres and improve them at least seven games with those five on the team. Instead, the Padres were one game worse than they were as a 77-85 team last season. Kemp did rebound and play in 154 games and had 100 RBIs, but Myers played in just 60, Upton didn’t play to his potential, Shields was OK as the only starter over .500 in the rotation and Kimbrel was good, but not great. The Padres made a lot of big moves and sacrificed a lot to put themselves in a position to compete with the Dodgers and Giants and instead they finished in fourth place in the NL West and ninth place in the NL.

Los Angeles Dodgers – 92.5 (92-70, WIN)
The Dodgers came within one game of covering and I can think of a lot of games that could have been the difference. Between the horrible bullpen and the weak lineup that Andrew Friedman put together, the Dodgers should have been a 100-win team with Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke. Friedman did nothing to change the bullpen in front of Kenley Jansen, built a shaky rotation after the Top 2 and created a lineup that had Justin Turner as its most feared hitter. But yeah, Don Mattingly deserves to be fired. It’s his fault the Dodgers lost to the Mets in five games.

UNDERS

Minnesota Twins – 73 (83-79, LOSS)
The Twins overachieved, and unfortunately for the Yankees, they didn’t overachieve a little more. The Twins missed the second wild card by three games and had they gotten that wild card it would have been the Twins the Yankees faced and not the Astros and most importantly, not Dallas Keuchel. The Yankees would have gotten the chance to play the team they have gone 12-2 in the playoffs against since 2003. I still don’t know how a rotation of Phil Hughes, Kyle Gibson, Mike Pelfrey, Tommy Milone and Ervin Santana won 83 games. But I guess that’s baseball, Suzyn.

Tampa Bay Rays – 79 (80-82, LOSS)
One game. One game! Like the Dodgers, the Rays screwed me by one game and it hurts. There’s not much to say about this one other than that Vegas did a great job making this line. The Rays were the typical Rays with a great rotation and a horrible lineup. If there is any doubt that pitching wins, the Rays are proof since they were able to win 80 games with an offense that scored the second-fewest runs in the AL and still had a plus-2 run differential.

Detroit Tigers – 84 (74-87, WIN)
I think everyone saw this coming except for maybe delusional Tigers fans. The Tigers lost Max Scherzer to free agency and traded Rick Porcello and Justin Verlander started the year on the disabled list and was nowhere near his normal self when he did pitch. Miguel Cabrera missed 43 games and had the lowest home run and RBI totals of his career and Victor Martinez went from finishing second in the 2014 AL MVP voting to showing his age as a 36-year-old .245/.301/.366 hitter. I don’t know when the Tigers will be good again, but it’s not going to be anytime soon.

Cleveland Indians – 85 (81-80, WIN)
The Indians tried to do their annual get-hot-in-the-final-weeks-of-September routine that they have made their thing under Terry Francona. Luckily, they didn’t get hot enough and finished four wins short of pushing this total and five short of losing it for me. The Yankees did their best to make this interesting by going 2-5 against the Indians, and those Indians series came right when the Yankees could have made their move to take the AL East for good.

Boston Red Sox – 86 (78-84, WIN)
The easiest pick in the entire league. The Red Sox had their third last-place finish in four years, fired their general manager, asked their $95 million third baseman to stop being a switch-hitter, told their $88 million left fielder to stop being a left fielder and watched their new $82.5 million starting pitcher pitch to a 4.92 ERA. The Red Sox likely won’t have a real rotation again next season unless they make big a play for either David Price, Zack Greinke or Johnny Cueto, all of which will be 30-plus when the 2016 season and that has been the magic age number the Red Sox have avoided. The only thing that can help the Red Sox at this point is if a team like the Dodgers can save them again and that better not happen.