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Proposed MLB Postseason Format Will Badly Hurt Yankees

There are talks of the postseason field being increased again and that’s bad news for the Yankees.

When Major League Baseball changed the postseason format from four teams in each league to five, I wasn’t happy. Why change something that wasn’t broken? Why turn a 162-game season for a team deserving of a postseason berth into one nine-inning game? Why make the postseason even more of a crapshoot for teams which had to play well for six months? Money, of course.

I understood why financially baseball wanted to increase their postseason field. It meant more teams in the playoff picture later in the season and it meant TV money for two more postseason games. But to me, it meant a harder path to a championship for the Yankees. I was right as the Yankees have been screwed over by the two wild-card format more than any other team.

The five-team, wild-card format has done nothing but severely hurt the Yankees since it was implemented in 2012. It gave the Yankees false hope, and stalled their rebuild in both 2013 and 2014, as they were close enough to a wild-card berth for long enough in both seasons to not sell at the deadline, only to miss the playoffs both times. In 2015, the format prevented them from automatically reaching the ALDS without having to play in the one-game as the best non-division winner in the AL. Instead of playing the Royals in the ALDS, they had to face their ultimate kryptonite at the time in Dallas Keuchel. In 2017, it screwed them over again, as they once again were forced to play in the one-game playoff rather than go straight through to the ALDS and play the Indians. And in 2018, for a third time in four years, they had to survive the one-game playoff rather than advance to the ALDS to play the Astros.

It’s bad enough in a season like 2015, the 98-win Pirates and 97-win Cubs had to meet in a one-game playoff, while the 92-win Dodgers and 90-win Mets received free passes to the division series. Under the new format, only the top team in both leagues will receive that free pass to the division. Every other team will have to play best-of-3 to reach the division. So the 2019 103-win Yankees would have had to play a best-of-3 against either the 96-win Rays, 93-win Indians or 84-win Red Sox. A 103-win team wouldn’t have earned an automatic berth in the division series.

I see why this new format is appealing to average teams like the 2019 Red Sox (84 wins) or somewhat decent teams like the 2018 Mariners (89 wins) or crappy teams like 2017 Rays (80 wins) because it rewards medicority (all three of those teams would have reached the postseason under the new seven-team format). If this system were already in place in 2017, the two additionals team in the AL would have both been 80-82. What are we even doing here?

The simple fact the league and its owners are talking about expanding the postseason means it will most likely get expanded. It means more teams with something to play for in August and September, which means better attendance and TV ratings, and it means more postseason games. Right now, the wild-card round only has two games. That would be increased from the lowest possible 12 games to the highest possible 18 games, and that means more ticket sales and concessions and it means more for broadcast money. The only reason to introduce this new format is the same reason the 2012 format was created: money. The league and the owners don’t care if the postseason product is damaged and if an eventual champion was the sixth- or seventh-best team in the league for six months. The actual baseball and fairness of the postseason are a far distant second to the money that could be made by ruining October.

I have never thought a one-game playoff made sense. If anything, I would have done something similar to what MLB wants to do now without adding more teams. I would have the first wild card host the second wild card with the first wild card needing to win one game and the second wild card needing to win two games to advance to the division series. The first wild card would host both games. This format would fit under the current schedule where the Monday after the final day of the regular season is an off day and the games could take place on Tuesday and Wednesday (if needed) with the division series then beginning on Friday. It’s an idea that makes too much though, and that’s why it will never come to fruition.

Whatever new format comes of this might not be as drastic as the idea leaked of having the top teams pick their first-round opponents, but it means there will be more playoff teams in a sport that needs fewer. Nearly half the league (47%) will now get into the playoffs, turning the sport into the NHL and NBA. And whatever new format comes of this, the Yankees will be hurt more than any team with teams being rewarded even more than they currently are for not spending money. Why would you spend more money on your payroll when 80 wins could get you a postseason berth and will at least be enough to keep you in postseason contention to create the perception that you tried to win? Baseball was never meant to be turned into a one-game series or a best-of-3. It’s why it’s played nearly every day for six months and why only four teams at most should have ever been allowed in the postseason.

It was bad enough when a second wild-card team was added. It will be the worst thing ever if a third and fourth wild card are added. Not for the average, medicore, under-.500 teams, but certainly for the Yankees.

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My book The Next Yankees Era: My Transition from the Core Four to the Baby Bombers is now available as an ebook!


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Yankees Podcast: Spring Is in the Air

Erik Boland of Newsday joined me to talk about the storylines surrounding the Yankees to begin spring training.

Spring training is here. It’s been a long, cold offseason made even longer and even colder by the way last season ended, but baseball is back.

Newsday Yankees beat writer Erik Boland joined me to talk about the start of spring training, the questions Gerrit Cole will have to answer about his time with the Astros, the James Paxton injury news, the position player battles and how Clint Frazier avoided being traded for another offseason.

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My book The Next Yankees Era: My Transition from the Core Four to the Baby Bombers is now available as an ebook!

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Monday Mail: Is the Yankees’ Roster Complete?

Spring training has yet to officialy begin and already the Yankees are once again proving you can never have enough pitching.

Wednesday is the big day. Wednesday is when pitchers and catchers officially report to spring training for the Yankees (though many of the Yankees are already in Tampa and have started their spring training). There’s still more than six weeks until Opening Day and real, meaningful baseball, but spring training is here.

This week’s questions and comments are related to the current roster and if the Yankees did enough this offseason to improve it.

Email your questions to KeefeToTheCity@gmail.com or engage on the Keefe To The City Facebook page or on Twitter to be included in the next Monday Mail.

We need another bonafide starting pitcher. – Mario

Last week in the blog Spring Cleaning: A Fresh Start for Giancarlo Stanton, regarding J.A. Happ, I wrote:

I understand you can never have enough pitching, except when you’re talking about a 37-year-old coming off the worst season of his career and set to earn $17 million.

What felt like minutes after writing those words, it was announced that James Paxton will be out for the next three to four months after undergoing a back procedure. It was almost as if the Baseball Gods were upset with me mocking the idea that you can never have enough pitching.

The Paxton news certainly isn’t ideal, but it’s not the worst thing ever either. Paxton has never pitched a full season in the majors. Not one. His career-high innings came in 2018 when he threw 160 1/3. In his first season with the Yankees, he only managed 150 2/3 when he missed nearly four weeks and then admittedly pitched with a knee problem for most of the season before being shut down in his final start of the regular season with a back problem, which he eventually needed this recent surgery for.

The Yankees won’t have Paxton for at least the first month of the season and I would expect him to miss at least the first two months of the season. So now, instead of having Happ as the team’s fifth starter in what needs to be a bounceback season, Happ moves up to the No. 4 spot and Jordan Montgomery, most likely, becomes the No. 5 starter.

There isn’t really an available free-agent starting pitcher the Yankees could go out and sign at this point like the comment suggests. If Happ sucks again and Montgomery proves to be not ready as he separates himself from his Tommy John surgery, I would rather see what Deivi Garcia or Mike King or someone else within the organizatio can before giving an opportunity to the scrap heap.

So it’s true, you can never have enough pitching, even when you’re talking about a 37-year-old coming off the worst season of his career and set to earn $17 million.

Nolan Arenado is the best third baseman in baseball. You get the best when you can. No need to be concerned with costs. If they don’t mind paying the luxury tax, I’m not complaining. – Vinny

I couldn’t agree more, Vinny. I wrote about this extensively in the blog If the Yankees Can Get Nolan Arenado, Go Get Him.

The problem is while we aren’t worried about the luxury tax, Yankees ownership certainly is. It’s why they held back the last few years on free agency. The Yankees are the best team in baseball right now and good enough to win the World Series as currently constructed and ownership likely looks at Arenado as a luxury and not a necessity. They know they can win with a third base combination of Gio Urshela at $2.5 million and Miguel Andujar at somewhere around the league minimum, so there’s no need for them to go take on another nine-figure contract.

The franchise can more than afford to take on Arenado’s contract, but they know they can win with a third base making $32 million less.

I don’t get this obsession with Nolan Arenado, what the Yankees actually need is to lock up and secure our infield with Francisco Lindor. The kid makes perfect sense across the table. We need left-handed punch and to fill the hole that Didi Gregorious left at short. Gleyber Torres with all due respect is a much better second baseman than he is a shortstop. – El

The obsession with Arenado is that he’s the best all-around third baseman in baseball. As for Lindor, if the Yankees could somehow trade for him I would also be all for it. The difference is Arenado would cost only money as the Rockies are looking at moving him in a straight salary dump the way the Marlins moved Giancarlo Stanton, while Lindor will cost actual players.

As for the knock on Torres, I disagree. I would expect Torres to be a better second baseman than shortstop the same way I would expect any major leaguer to be a better second baseman than shortstop since it’s an easier position to play. But Torres came up as a shortstop (except for the brief time he playing third base in the minors before a season-ending injury in 2017, so the Yankees could stop playing Chase Headley), and he was only playing second because of Gregorius. Gregorius is gone, so Torres is the shortstop the way he was before Gregorius came back last season, and he’s going to be playing shortstop for a long, long time … unless the Yankees do something like acquire Lindor.

I’d like to have the best player in baseball at every position, but there are financial implications. They got in trouble chasing every free agent and came back to prominence developing their farm system. They laid out big money with Gerrit Cole, and huge payouts lie ahead for Aaron Judge, Gleyber Torres and Luis Severino. – Michael

There are financial implications to signing big-name free agents, but the Yankees are the Yankees and have more financial resources than any other team in the sport and should use that to their advantage. It was disgusting when they came one win away from the World Series in 2017 and then cut payroll by nearly $50 million for 2018, and their decision to sit out on every free-agent pitcher not named J.A. Happ for 2019 cost them the AL pennant once again.

The Yankees have returned to prominence by building up their farm system, but when you have a young core making the league minimum or in arbitration years, that’s when you should add free agents to the roster before the young core needs to be paid. Judge and Sanchez both got significant raises this season and Severino got a four-year, $40 million contract last season. Those numbers are only going to continue to go up, and that’s why it’s more important than ever for the Yankees to win a championship as soon as possible before ownership decides to go back into a signing freeze due to an increasing payroll they can more than afford.

I predict Giancarlo Stanton will have a banner year. Hope he has a great year and opts out. – Jack

Last week, I wrote that I’m going to give a clean slate to Stanton for 2020. No sarcasm to start the season, no snarky comments, no “Ladies and gentlemen” tweets on Opening Day. I’m going to be positive when it comes to Stanton for as long as he lets me be positive.

The response to that blog hasn’t been great. Either people don’t believe me, saying I won’t be able to last through the fourth inning of Opening Day, or they despise Stanton so much that they’re appalled that I’m willing to be positive when it comes to him.

I really do believe Stanton is a luxury for the Yankees. He was a luxury when the Yankees were able to acquire him for nothing and he’s become even more of a luxury with the team proving it can win without him. They don’t need him to be his pre-Yankee self to win. Last season, they were able to win 103 regular-season games and get to within two wins of the World Series without him. But even though he’s a luxury, I would very much welcome him returning to his pre-Yankee self and being an MVP candidate, especially with Aaron Hicks out for most of the season and the unpredictability of what Brett Gardner, Mike Tauchman and Clint Frazier will provide.

When it comes to his opt-out clase though, you can forget about that. Even without a 2017-like season, on the open market, Stanton wouldn’t come close to getting what he’s owed as a 31-year-old who will obviously spend his later years as a DH. Even if he thought he was worth more and could get more, who would pay him? The Yankees would be out on him. The now small-market-operating Red Sox would be out on him. The Astros? No. Unless the NL adopts the DH, I can’t see any NL team wanting him. He will be three years removed from his historic season with one good season (2018), one nine-game season (2019) and whatever he does in 2020 since his MVP campaign. Stanton isn’t going anywhere. He’s going to be a Yankee.

Want to be included in the next Monday Mail? Email your questions to KeefeToTheCity@gmail.com or engage on the Keefe To The City Facebook page or on Twitter.

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My book The Next Yankees Era: My Transition from the Core Four to the Baby Bombers is now available as an ebook!

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I’m Going to Miss David Price Pitching Against the Yankees

Unfortunately, the Yankees will no longer have the luxury of seeing David Price multiple times during the regular season. There won’t be anymore video game-related injury excuses or last-minute scratches or early exits for the $217 million pitcher against the Yankees.

Early in the 2018 season, David Price was scheduled to start against the Yankees before being mysteriously scratched. The reasons for the surprise missed scheduled start varied from wrist tightness to hand numbness to tenderness, but when Price was able to return to the mound and start just a few days later, it was obvious what the reason for him being scratched was: the Yankees.

Not even a month prior to his scratch on April 11, Price lasted only an inning against the Yankees, and not even two months after the scratch, Price would have his worst performance against the Yankees on July 1 on Sunday Night Baseball. Price’s line from that July 1 start: 3.1 IP, 9 H, 8 R, 8 ER, 0 BB, 3 K, 5 HR. The Yankees produced five home runs without Gary Sanchez, who has hit Price better than any other major leaguer. Price would pick up a no-decision against the Yankees on Aug. 5 and then was embarrassed once more by them on Sept. 19 (5.1 IP, 5 H, 6 R, 4 ER, 4 BB, 2 K, 3 HR).

That season, his miserable history against the Yankees culminated in Game 2 of the ALDS when he was once again lit up. Ten pitches into the game Aaron Judge sent a 1-2 pitch high over the Green Monster in left-center where few have ever hit a ball, and then leading off the second, Sanchez crushed the third pitch of the inning over the Monster as well. Price didn’t make it through the second inning as he was pulled after recording only five outs (1.2 IP, 3 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 2 BB, 0 K, 2 HR), leaving the game with two runners. After his departure, Judge barreled up Joe Kelly, but the 109.8 mph line drive was hit directly at Betts otherwise Price’s final line would have been much worse than it already was.

The last time the Yankees got to face Price as a Red Sox was on Aug. 4 of this past season, and he put together his usual performance, unable to last three innings at Yankee Stadium (2.2 IP, 9 H, 7 R, 7 ER, 2 BB, 3 K, 2 HR).

Price leaves Boston and the American League with the current Yankees roster having a .317/.383/.639 line against him in 231 plate appearances. That’s a 1.022 OPS. Within the overall performance are some memorable individual performances:

Gary Sanchez (21 plate appeances): .500/.619/.1625, 6 HR, 12 RBIs
Aaron Judge (16 plate appearances): .308/.438/1.000, 3 HR, 3 RBIs
Luke Voit (10 plate appearances): .444/.500/1.444, 3 HR, 4 RBIs

(Aaron Hicks, Gleyber Torres, Gio Urshela Miguela Andujar and Kyle Higashioka have also homered off Price.)

Unfortunately, the Yankees will no longer have the luxury of seeing Price multiple times during the regular season. There won’t be anymore video game-related injury excuses or last-minute scratches or early exits for the $217 million pitcher against the Yankees.

The Yankees won’t have a chance to see him until 2022 — in the last year of his contract — when the Yankees next play the NL West in the regular season, unless the Yankees and Dodgers meet in the World Series. If they do finally meet in the World Series, the Dodgers will want to begin whichever game he starts with their bullpen up.

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My book The Next Yankees Era: My Transition from the Core Four to the Baby Bombers is now available as an ebook!

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Yankees Podcast: AL East Has Already Been Won

Andrew Rotondi of Bronx Pinstripes joined me to talk about the regular season once again becoming a formality.

Next week spring training begins. Baseball is back even if it’s just beat writers live-tweeting intrasquad games and batting practice, reading about pitchers’ fielding practice and back-field infield drills and watching videos of bullpen sessions recorded on a phone through the spacing of a chain-link fence.

Andrew Rotondi of Bronx Pinstripes joined me to talk about the possibility of Nolan Arenado becoming a Yankee, how easy it will be for the Yankees to win the division and more than 102 games, the mess the Red Sox are in, staying positive with Aaron Boone’s managerial style and what Giancarlo Stanton needs to do to win back Yankees fans.

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My book The Next Yankees Era: My Transition from the Core Four to the Baby Bombers is now available as an ebook!

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