NFL – Page 11 – Keefe To The City

Sep 19, 2013

NFL Week 3 Picks

It’s a busy week and that means a quick rundown for the Week 3 picks.

It’s a busy week, so let’s keep it short and sweet.

Week 3 … let’s go!

(Home team in caps)

PHILADELPHIA -3.5 over Kansas City
If Chip Kelly knew how to manage the clock in the NFL then the Eagles could be 2-0 with a chance to beat Andy Reid in his homecoming to be the best team in the NFC East.

BALTIMORE +2.5 over Houston

San Diego +3 over TENNESSEE
It’s the Must-Not Watch Game of the Week, so … Somewhere someone who isn’t a Chargers fan or a Titans fan is going to bet on this game and watch it in its entirety. Think about that.

St. Louis +3.5 over DALLAS
Are the Rams a team on the rise after their 7-9 season last year and impressive 4-1-1 record in the NFC West? Or are they just the usual Sam Bradford Rams? Even if they are only the Sam Bradford Rams, that should be good enough in Dallas against a Cowboys team that barely won a game in which their unnamed opponent turned the ball over six times and a Cowboys team that lost to Alex Smith and the Chiefs on the road.

Tampa Bay +7.5 over NEW ENGLAND
The Patriots don’t cover games. They still get the dynasty era respect, but they aren’t that same team. They will win enough games to win the AFC East and reach the postseason because of their schedule, but they can’t be trusted to win games for covering purposes. If you’re looking for that team, it’s the Broncos.

MINNESOTA -6 over Cleveland
I think the Vikings are better than their 0-2 record says they are because my girlfriend, a Vikings fan, makes me believe they are. So if they can’t cover against the Browns at home, I blame her.

NEW ORLEANS -7.5 over Arizona
The Saints at the Superdome against the Cardinals. That sentence should say all you need to know.

WASHINGTON -1.5 over Detroit
When you take a dome team out of their dome, bad things happen. The Saints and Falcons are unstoppable and unbeatable at their homes and while the Lions don’t have the same home success of those two teams, they play just as poorly as them when they are on the road.

Green Bay +3 over CINCINNATI
I want to buy into the Bengals and their bandwagon, which is running out of seats (I checked on StubHub and Craigslist), but against the Packers, even if they’re not the same Packers everyone is selling us on, I have to go with Aaron Rodgers over Andy Dalton.

New York Giants +1 over CAROLINA
The Giants aren’t playing for their season in Carolina, but they kind of are. A loss to the Panthers will start the “Only (some number) of teams have started 0-3 and made the playoffs” talk for every media outlet until next Sunday. So I have to pick the Giants to cover because I think they will win. They kind of have to.

MIAMI -2 over Atlanta
Remember what I said for about the Lions earlier? If you do, then you know that I wrote about the Falcons in that summary and what kind of road team they are.

SEATTLE -19 over Jacksonville
It’s the first college football line in the NFL in a while and it could be -35 and I would still take the Seahawks.

SAN FRANCISCO -10.5 over Indianapolis
The Colts are in a bad spot going to San Francisco with the 49ers coming off back-to-back losses. A very bad spot.

Buffalo +2.5 over NEW YORK JETS
The Giants are 0-2 and the Jets are 1-1 and the Giants are being talked about like they are the Jets, while the Jets are being talked about like they are the … well, they are still being talked about like they are the Jets because everyone is waiting for them to fall apart. The only way for them to fall apart is to start losing games like a home game against the Bills.

Chicago -2.5 over PITTSBURGH
If the Steelers’ team name were anything, but the “Steelers” this week, this line would be probably Chicago -4.5 or higher. But because the Steelers are the Steelers and have the following and garner the attention that they do, they are only 2.5-point underdogs at home despite being really bad.

DENVER -14.5 over Oakland
The Broncos’ line are only going to keep getting higher and higher and higher until you can’t take them anymore. So take them while you can.

Last week: 7-8-1
Season: 10-20-2

Blogs • Giants • NFL

Sep 12, 2013

NFL Week 2 Picks

The Giants had the “Disaster in Dallas” on Sunday night with a six-turnover loss and I just had “The Disaster” in Week 1 with my picks.

Can you have a must-win game in Week 2? Yes, you can because the Giants do.

(I opened my 2012 NFL Week 2 Picks with that same question. I’m hoping I won’t have to use it in 2014.)

OK, maybe it’s not a “must-win game” because the Giants could bounce back from an 0-2 record even if they have to go on the road to Carolina and Kansas City in Weeks 3 and 4. But maybe I’m just saying it’s not a must-win game because the Giants have a very good chance of losing to the Broncos (and Vegas believes they will) and if they do then technically the season would be over if they lose a must-win game. So let’s not classify this game as anything (since I’m too scared to) and how about the Giants just win an important home game?

Since the “Disaster in Dallas,” the Giants have signed Brandon Jacobs, who was last with the team for the 2011 Super Bowl season before performing and talking his way out of town. And the Giants signed Jacobs because David Wilson destroyed the season opener and all Wilson’s done since that game is gotten into Twitter fights with upset Giants fans and angry fantasy team owners, which is exactly what you want your 22-year-old No. 1 running back doing in the days following him being benched.

But if the Giants had the “Disaster in Dallas” then I’m going to have to also name my Week 1 Picks, which actually went worse than the Giants’ six-turnover performance against the Cowboys. So I’m calling the Week 1 Picks just “The Disaster” because that’s what it was. A 3-12-1 week to start the season (I actually went 7-8-1 in my picks pool, so I’m not sure how I managed that much of a difference) is embarrassing. But unlike CC Sabathia, when I say I’m going to try to figure things out and be better, I really am. Even if like CC, I put my season in an early hole and it might take a while to get back to respectability and over .500, I’m going to get back on track. No fake accountability here.

Week 2 … let’s go!

(Home team in caps)

New York Jets +11.5 over NEW ENGLAND
Last week I let Mike Hurley tell me that the Patriots blowing out the Bills was “a guarantee.” “A guarantee” he said! Everyone knows how guarantees go when it comes to NFL picks. So I went along with Hurley and his Patriots needed a last-second field goal to put away the Bills.

This week I’m going the way I wanted to go lat week which is against the Patriots because I don’t think they’re that good (there not) and their best receiver is Julian Edelman (yes, that Julian Edelman) and because my friend Scott sent me a 717-word email with the subject “Why you should bet the Pats even at -13.” (To be fair, Scott is a Patriots fan and would probably bet them even at -42.)

The Jets won’t be able to score because not only are they the Jets, but Geno Smith is their quarterback and they had trouble scoring against Tampa Bay at home. So that means I’m reeling on the Jets defense (which means I’m relying on Rex Ryan) and Tom Brady to not be able to score at will. Wait. Why am I picking the Jets again?

PHILADELPHIA -8 over San Diego
I don’t know if I buy the Chip Kelly offense hype. I don’t want to because that doesn’t mean good things for the Giants. But I’m going to buy it this week with the Chargers coming across the country for a 1:05 game after losing to the Texans in San Diego in the late edition of Monday Night Football.

BALTIMORE -7 over Cleveland
The defending champions were embarrassed in Denver to the point that their season and offseason and future have been called into question since last Thursday night. What better way to turn the negativity around than to have Brandon Weeden and the Browns come to town? The answer is none. There isn’t a better way to get your season on track than to face Weeden and the Browns at home.

HOUSTON -9.5 over Tennessee
I’m not a fan of taking the Texans with a line this high, but I’m also not a fan of needing Jake Locker to cover a game for me. And when in doubt, pick against Jake Locker.

Miami +3 over INDIANAPOLIS
Last week I said, “Because I initially picked the Dolphins to cover here and then switch my pick to the Browns like a ninth-grade U.S. History Scantron test, I know the Browns are going to lose and their offseason hype bandwagon is going to stall.”

So I’m going to give the Dolphins another chance because I screwed them over in Week 1 (and in turn they screwed me over).

Carolina -3 over BUFFALO
The Bills surprised everyone when they nearly upset the Patriots in Week 1. The problem is the Bills and their fans are likely proud of their effort against the Patriots and feel as though their loss on a last-second field goal was sort of a victory. That’s why they’re the Bills. And that’s why I will pick against them.

ATLANTA -7 over St. Louis
All of these seven-plus lines this week are making me think this could be a make-or-break week given my record from Week 1, and it probably will be because I keep picking the home team and favorite to cover in them. It’s no different here with the Falcons returning home where they are just like the Saints when it comes to home-field advantage.

GREEN BAY -7.5 over Washington
The Packers lost a revenge game and are coming home where it’s nearly impossible to win unless you’re the Giants and it’s the playoffs and they’re playing a Washington defense that was embarrassed by Chip Kelly’s college football and an offense led by a rusty second-year quarterback coming off knee surgery. I’m going to bank on the Packers, who haven’t lost back-to-back games in three years coming out with a purpose and helping my picks and my rooting interest in the NFC East in this one.

Dallas +3 over KANSAS CITY
I’m not going to sit and here tell you the Giants should have beaten the Cowboys even though they lost 36-31 despite making six turnovers. But I am here to tell you that I don’t think the combination of Andy Reid and Alex Smith is going to do much against legitimate teams even if Reid knows the NFC East better than any opposing head coach in the league.

Minnesota +6.5 over CHICAGO
It would be much easier to pick against the Vikings if my girlfriend wasn’t a Vikings fan and if they had just missed the playoffs last year and I didn’t keep thinking they were actually a “playoff” team because really Adrian Peterson was a playoff team and the Vikings were just the same old Vikings.

New Orleans -4 over TAMPA BAY
Every once in a while there is a line that comes out that makes you think “I need to jump all over this before they realize they entered it wrong.” This is one of those games. But it’s always these games that turn out to be the nail-biter. And because of that and because the Saints outside of the Superdome are not the same team as they are in it, it won’t surprise me if Drew Brees needs to go down the field with under two minutes and no timeouts to win, but not cover.

Detroit -2.5 over ARIZONA
I will always go against Carson Palmer. Always. When the line is this low it just makes it that much easier for me to do so.

OAKLAND -6 over Jacksonville
Somewhere someone who isn’t a Raiders fan or a Jaguars fan is going to bet on this game and watch it in its entirety. Think about that. (I used that write-up twice in Week 1 and will probably use it for every Jaguars game for the season because what else am I going to say about the Jaguars? Unless they finally realize they should sign Tim Tebow.)

NEW YORK GIANTS +5.5 over Denver
The last thing Eli needs to do to officially be able to tell Peyton to “Shut up” at Thanksgiving every Thanksgiving forever is to beat him directly.

San Francisco +2.5 over SEATTLE
I’m hoping for the Seahawks hype bandwagon to come to a crashing halt the way I used to watch The Weather Channel religiously in high school during the winter the night before a test or a project was due. The 49ers can start that process.

Pittsburgh +7 over CINCINNATI
The Steelers look ready to go into rebuild mode, especially when they’re losing to the Titans at home. But even though the Steelers are nowhere near the Super Bowl team they were three years ago, I’m not ready yet to start taking the Bengals to cover a touchdown at home against a team they have trouble barely beating in a nasty division rival matchup. Prove to me that you mean business, Cincinnati, and then we can talk.

Last week: 3-12-1

Blogs • Giants • NFL

Sep 5, 2013

NFL Week 1 Picks

The NFL is back and so are the weekly picks. Let’s get the 2013 season started off on the right foot with the Week 1 picks.

Labor Day is the ultimate Catch-22. The summer is over and the days get shorter as baseball starts to come to an end. But the temperatures get more reasonable, baseball pennant races pick up with hockey just around the corner and it’s the start of football season. The last thing there, “the start of football season,” is the one thing that keeps me from staying in bed, putting my Cliff Lee Sad Song Playlist on repeat and just waiting for the first nice day of spring, especially after a summer in which the Yankees have put themselves in a position where they have to win nearly every game in September.

The first day of football season means the first day of picks, doing longhand addition on the back of bills to create wild parlays, figuring out how to track four fantasy teams without getting the “Stop running this script?” message on a computer, freaking out over a suicide pool in the fourth quarter of the first week, searching for some overseas site that has every NFL game available to watch if you just answer some survey questions, drinking excessive amounts of beer and eating foods that contain little to no nutritional value.

Football is back in my life and so are the New York Football Giants.

When I last left off with the Giants, they decided to try and save their season in Week 17 against the Eagles when their season was already over. The embarrassment of another second-half collapse and destruction of a 6-2 record completed by the blowouts at the hands of the Falcons and Ravens in Weeks 15 and 16 made me happy that football was going away for eight months. But it’s been a long eight months of wondering “What could have been?” had the Giants not gone into the same freefall they have gone into every season during the Tom Coughlin era with the exception of the two Super Bowl winning seasons. But when Carrie Underwood leads us into Al Michaels and Cris Collinsworth and the Giants and Cowboys kick off in the Big D on Sunday night, the bad memories of how the 2012 season ended will be erased (but not forgotten) and the hopes of playing in the last game of the football season will begin.

Football is back and that means so are the weekly picks.

Week 1 … let’s go!

(Home team in caps)

Baltimore +7.5 over DENVER
Week 1 is so hard to pick because there is nothing to go off of except what you remember from last season and everything you have been told and force fed in the offseason and possibly some preseason action if you actually watch preseason football. The only thing harder than Week 1 is Week 2 when all you have to go off is what you saw in Week 1, which could be completely off.

The defending Super Bowl champions are on the road to open the season because the Orioles are hosting the White Sox across the street from M&T Bank Stadium. That’s right, the fading Orioles are playing the 56-82 White Sox, so Ravens fans will have to celebrate their championship for the last time by watching on NBC or by spending thousands of dollars to travel to Denver for the game.

Last season the Ravens lost to the Broncos, 34-17, in Week 15 before beating them in two overtimes in the divisional round of the playoffs thanks to a 70-yard touchdown with 31 seconds left in the game and some terrible coaching and decision making form the Broncos.

So why are the Broncos giving over a touchdown at home on Opening Night to the defending champions? I’m not sure.

New England -10.5 over BUFFALO
Just for fun I took a look at the Bills depth chart to see what their working with in 2013 and it’s not pretty. Bills fans don’t like when anyone talks poorly about them or picks against them (even when a spread is involved), but even a Bills fan with the Bills logo tattooed on his neck (someone like this has to exist) or a Bills fan with the Bills logo tattooed on his bald head (someone like this also has to exist) would tell you that the 2013 season is going to be fine.

Pittsburgh -7 over TENNESSEE
I really, really, really don’t want to pick the Steelers at seven-point favorites, but then again, how can I pick the Titan to cover? I can’t.

NEW ORLEANS -3 over Atlanta
Last year the Saints season was over at 0-4 then revitalized at 5-5 then destroyed with a three-game losing streak. They were coming off the punishments from their bounty program and Sean Payton was suspended for the season. Saints fans haven’t had a chance to go crazy since their playoff game against the Lions on Jan. 7, 2012 and that was a long time ago. The Superdome is going to be a scary effing place on Sunday and it’s the last place the Falcons defense wants to be to open the season.

Tampa Bay -4.5 over NEW YORK JETS
With the start of football season comes “fan denial.” Every fan thinks their team is going to have a great year and no one wants to hear about the possibility of a lost season or being out of it before the end of September. “Fan denial” is prevalent around the entire NFL, but when it comes to the New York Jets and their fans it’s scary how out of touch with reality people can be.

The Jets are going to suck. They are going to suck in a way that when Rex Ryan is finally showed the door, the Butt Fumble might not be the most embarrassing moment that happened under his watch. But don’t tell Jets fans this. I have had some Jets fan friends tell me the team has a shot at the postseason if everything falls right and I have had others tell me at worst the Jets will finish 8-8. There’s no way to respond to anyone who could make themselves believe that, so I have just to nod my hod in agreement or say things like “Oh yeah, I could see that.” The key to handling Jets fans is to just wait them out. By Week 6 their season will be mathematically destroyed and they won’t be able to use overconfidence as a personality. Just wait them out.

Kansas City -4.5 over JACKSONVILLE
Somewhere someone who isn’t a Chiefs fan or a Jaguars fan is going to bet on this game and watch it in its entirety. Think about that.

CHICAGO -3 over Cincinnati
The Bears are the closest things to the Giants in the NFL when you look at their talent and ability to completely destroy a playoff-bound season. But when it comes to the Bengals there isn’t a team that has gotten as much positive attention and has had as many preseason predictions in their favor since the 2013 Toronto Blue Jays, the 2012 Kansas City Royals, the 2011 Boston Red Sox and every Cowboys team during the Tony Romo era. Nothing says “Letdown season” more than the 2013 Cincinnati Bengals if only because they are being picked to go play at MetLife Stadium in February.

CLEVELAND -1 over Miami
I keep hearing about how the Browns weren’t as bad as their record says they were last season and how close they were to being 8-8. The only problem is they weren’t. And because I initially picked the Dolphins to cover here and then switch my pick to the Browns like a ninth-grade U.S. History Scantron test, I know the Browns are going to lose and their offseason hype bandwagon is going to stall.

Seattle -4.5 over CAROLINA
Somewhere someone who isn’t a Seahawks fan or a Panthers fan is going to bet on this game and watch it in its entirety. Think about that.

Minnesota +6 over DETROIT
The way everyone says each season that three playoff teams could come from the NFC East can now also be said about the NFC North. And it’s time I think everyone needs to look at NFC North games the way they look at NFC East games (before the Eagles fell apart) in that every spread should be three points and any spread over that, you have to take the points.

INDIANAPOLIS -10 over Oakland
Remember when Matt Flynn was highly coveted because of one game (the final game of the 2011 season)? Remember when the Seahawks gave him $10 million of guaranteed money off that game and then made Russell Wilson their starting quarterback over him? And then remember when Flynn was traded to the Raiders two be their starting quarterback and lost out on the job to Terrelle Pryor? I always thought Matt Cassel being coached by Bill Belichick and getting to play with the Patriots offense in 2008 and then cashing in would always be the easiest way any NFL quarterback not named JaMarcus Russell would get rich. But then Matt Flynn came along and totally changed the game by having one good game.

It’s the Everyone Who Is In A Suicide Pool Is Picking This Game of the Week. And I guess it also should be the Anyone Who Is Doing A 10-Point Teaser Is Picking This Game of the Week.

ST. LOUIS -4.5 over Arizona
Somewhere someone who isn’t a Rams fan or a Cardinals fan is going to bet on this game and watch it in its entirety. Think about that.

Green Bay +5 over SAN FRANCISCO
I thought this line was high when I first looked at it in the middle of the summer long before the NFL season was in sight because why wouldn’t I check out Week 1 lines with the season months away? And I still think it’s too high especially with the entire world that isn’t all over the Broncos, Seahawks and Bengals being all over the 49ers when the Packers have the “best” quarterback in the league.

New York Giants +3.5 over DALLAS
The Giants have never lost in Cowboys/AT&T Stadium. (And did you think I would pick against the Giants playing the Cowboys in Week 1?)

WASHINGTON -4.5 over Philadelphia
After beating the Giants in Week 4, the Eagles were 3-1. After losing to the Giants in Week 17, the Eagles finished the season 4-12. A 1-11 stretch was enough for the Eagles to finally fire Andy Reid and try to give their team a much-needed facelift. The common theme this offseason has been that the Eagles won’t be good, but that Chip Kelly might be able to revitalize the team in his first year. Even if he can, it won’t happen in Week 1.

Houston -5.5 over SAN DIEGO
It’s disappointing that Norv Turner is no longer the Chargers head coach because I liked free wins with my picks. But I’m also happy that Norv is gone because this line would have been higher and more challenging had he still been the coach. I have been anti-Philip Rivers and anti-Chargers all along, so I’m not about to turn my back on my beliefs now even if Norv isn’t there.

NFL • NHL

Mar 29, 2012

The Most Wonderful Time of the Year

With the city about to become sports crazy with the combination of early-season baseball games mixed with playoff hockey and basketball, it’s time for some random thoughts.

We made it! We made it through the dog days of the sports calendar that starts the day after the Super Bowl and ends with March Madness. Now it’s smooth sailing until the MLB All-Star break when the sports world shuts down and ESPN uses the week to replay every Home Run Derby from the last decade.

The Giants got me through the brutal winter months, which weren’t so brutal thanks to a lack of snow and this run of awesome weather that created a spring training-like atmosphere for the northeast. And now we have almost arrived at the greatest day of them all: Opening Day.

April presents the perfect storm of sports with Opening Day clashing with the beginning of the NHL and NBA postseasons. Well, unless you’re a Mets, Islanders and Nets fan, then I don’t know what you do to get your sports fix since waiting for the Jets’ season isn’t really an option. It’s The Most Wonderful Time of the Year, and it has led me to want to remake this Staples commercial that my dad used to tease me with when the summer was coming to a close.

We are at the point where the Yankees are ready for their third attempt at No. 28, the Rangers are in a position they haven’t been in 15 years and the Knicks look like they might be able to win at least one playoff game. Yankee Stadium is ready to open in 15 days and Madison Square Garden might actually host sporting events in late April, possibly May and if we’re lucky June.

With New York City about to become sports crazy with the combination of the new-car smell of early-season baseball games mixed with the importance of playoff hockey and basketball, there really is no better time to start a weekly random thoughts column to make sure nothing gets lost in the shuffle throughout the week.

I decided to leave the Yankees out of this for now since there’s a lot to get to with them and I’ll get to it all next week leading up to Opening Day. For now, here are some non-baseball thoughts as I mentally prepare myself for next Friday at 3:10 p.m.

– Ryan Callahan is having a magical year as every shot he takes goes in or almost goes in. He doesn’t have the hands, offensive skills or talent of the premiere scorers in the league, but he certainly has the “goal scorer’s touch” and yes, it’s a real thing. It doesn’t matter if he’s scoring the most garbage of goals on a sloppy rebound or sniping bar down in a shootout, it seems like there isn’t a goalie when Callahan is shooting.

On Wednesday night, Callahan scored one of his patented “touch” goals when he missed an attempt on what would have been a pretty goal in front of the net, but instead of scoring, he shot it off a defenseman, and because he’s Ryan Callahan, the puck went right back to his stick blade rather than into the corner or to one of the other nine guys on the ice. Callahan knew what to do with it and found the back of the net. Moments later he came down and let one loose off the crossbar.

It’s things like Callahan’s goals, the way the team scores ugly goals as a whole and find ways to win games, and the play from the soon-to-be-Vezina-winner Henrik Lundqvist that makes me think if the Rangers can’t win it this season they might not get a chance like this with all the stars aligning again.

– There’s not much to think about Tim Tebow going to the Jets other than the Jets are an absolute joke. I like Tebow and like watching him play and like watching media members scramble to try and analyze and make sense of his success, so this might be the first Jets player I root for.

Woody, Mr. T and Rex continue to say that Mark Sanchez is their starting quarterback “period” but if that’s the case, who holds a press conference for their backup quarterback? However, the trio also tells us they didn’t bring Tim Tebow here to be a backup? Can I offer anyone some crazy pills?

The problem is that Sanchez isn’t the Jets’ starting quarterback “period.” The first time Sanchez throws an interception or a pick-six or the offense goes three-and-out at Giants Stadium (I’m dropping MetLife from the name), you’re going to hear the kind of “Tebow” chants that rained down on Mile High Stadium in Week 1 last year while Kyle Orton lost to the Raiders. Those chants are powerful, and they will carry over to sports radio and TV. And those same chants that pushed Kyle Orton out of town and gave John Elway and John Fox no choice but to start Tebow and give the people what they want will be infinitely more powerful in New York. Because let’s be honest, Mark Sanchez isn’t going to do anything to prevent or stifle them.

And how do you have a press conference for maybe the most polarizing athlete in the world with the New York media present and the owner, general manager and head coach are nowhere to be found? The only Jets representative that was present was Jared Winley. The same guy Jared Winley who told Darrelle Revis to hang up on Mike Francesa last October. J! E! T! S! JETS! JETS! JETS!

– For as dominant as the Rangers have been, they still aren’t the best team in the Eastern Conference. That title belongs to the Penguins. And for as dominant as the Rangers have been, they are in a tough situation as the No. 1 seed right now. Pittsburgh trails them by five points with a game in hand, and if Pittsburgh takes over the top seed, the Rangers will face the Flyers in the first round. Sure, the Rangers are undefeated against the Flyers, but the Flyers are 10-3-1 in March, a division rival and if you believe in being “due” or the law of averages, the Flyers are the worst possible first-round matchup for the Rangers.

If the Rangers come out as the No. 1 seed, which they are likely to do, then they will likely face the Senators (currently No. 7), Sabres (currently No. 8) or Capitals (currently No. 9). (There’s also a chance they could face the Devils if a series of insane events happens.)

The Senators looked like they might take over the No. 2 seed from the Bruins, but then they lost five of six over a two-week stretch this month, and now they are battling just to fend off the Sabres and Capitals. The Sabres have won five straight and have outscored opponents 22-5 in those five games (including a 4-1 win over the Rangers). The Capitals have been up and down in March, but does anyone really want to face the Capitals after what happened in 2008-09 and last year even if they aren’t exactly the same team?

This is tricky because the Rangers have a past with the Capitals even if they are the weakest team of the three, and the Rangers and Sabres play a very similar style, and Ryan Miller just happens to be getting 2010 Olympics hot right now.

Despite what Brian Monzo tells me about being scared of the Senators knocking off the Rangers, I think I would want to play Ottawa then Washington then Buffalo, but this has been changing daily.

– What’s Mike D’Antoni doing right now? Sure, he will have $24 million from the Knicks when all is said and done, but there’s no way he doesn’t look like Ron Burgundy (it’s a mustache thing) after being fired from Channel 4 as an unemployed drunk who’s hated by the city. The last thing you want to see your team do when you’re let go is win, and the Knicks beat the Trail Blazers by 42 on the same day D’Antoni “resigned” and now they’re 8-1 with Mike Woodson as the head coach.

– I’m happy to see Bartolo Colon continuing his great comeback (8 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 6 K on Thursday morning against Seattle). I was 100-percent wrong a year ago when I said he was a bad idea for the Yankees to put on the roster, and this was even before he was put into the rotation. I do wish we got to see him start Game 2 of the ALDS.

– Thank you and goodbye to Brandon Jacobs. Even though I actually felt like Jacobs picked it up down the stretch and in the postseason he has clearly declined drastically since the 2007 run and his superb 2008 run. He became a locker room distraction, a loudmouth with the media and even entered the A.J. Burnett Zone from which there is no return. I will remember Jacobs for the good times and try to forget about the bad times (unless I need to reference them to draw comparison to something else that’s negative). He leaves New York for the 49ers as a two-time champion, and now I can only hope he fumbles against the Giants in next year’s NFC Championship Game.

Blogs • NFL

Jan 20, 2012

Giants Will Win And Championship Picks

Two down. One to go. That’s all that’s left for the Giants to return to the Super Bowl. One win. One win! I never thought the Giants would be here. No one did. How could

Two down. One to go. That’s all that’s left for the Giants to return to the Super Bowl. One win. One win!

I never thought the Giants would be here. No one did. How could you when they were 9-7 and losing games to Rex Grossman (twice) and Charvaris Whiteson and Vince Young? I just wanted a shot at the playoffs. I just wanted some meaningful January football for the first time in three years. I didn’t expect anything if they got in. I just wanted that chance to get in the playoffs and hope that something could happen if they did get in.

The comparisons from 2007 to 2011 are eerie, but true for the most part. The paths have been the same, but the Giants teams haven’t been. That postseason they beat the Buccaneers 24-14, the Cowboys 21-17 and the Packers 23-20. Three wins by a combined 17 points. This postseason they have knocked off the Falcons 24-2 and the Packers 37-20. They have won two playoff games by a combined 39 points, and have scored just seven fewer points than they scored in those three playoff games in 2007.

This is a much different Giants team that’s just happening to do it the same way that team did. The team isn’t built around the running game and the defense anymore. Earth, Wind and Fire is long gone and Perry Fewell is the second defensive coordinator since Steve Spagnuolo left after the ’08 season (I try to forget about the Bill Sheridan experiment). It’s already been four years since the Giants shocked the world, but these last few weeks have made it feel like it was just last year by bringing back and reviving glorious memories. These last few weeks have also made the “What Should Have Been” season of 2008 hurt a little less, as the franchise has rebounded from the disappointing 2009 and 2010 seasons.

After the Giants won the Super Bowl in 2007 and then went 12-4 in 2008 and locked up the No. 1 seed in the playoffs, I thought they would compete for the Super Bowl every year for the next decade the way the Patriots have since 2001. And I still believe the Giants would have won the Super Bowl in 2008 if Plaxico Burress didn’t go to The Latin Quarter that night, and I don’t think I’m the only one.

In 2008, the final four teams were the Cardinals, Eagles, Steelers and Ravens. The Giants beat all four of those teams in the regular season. The Cardinals ended up winning the NFC (the Giants beat them 37-29 in Arizona in Week 12). In the playoffs, the Cardinals won at home against the Falcons, won in sunny Carolina in the divisional round and then beat the Eagles back in Arizona. But during the regular season, the Cardinals lost every outdoor game they played on the East Coast. They lost 24-17 in Washington. They lost 56-35 to the Jets at Giants Stadium. They lost 48-20 in Philadelphia. They lost 47-7 in the snow in New England. (They also lost 27-23 in Carolina, but we won’t count that since it’s not cold there, even if it does help my case.) They went 0-4 in northern, cold weather, outdoor stadiums and lost by a combined 175-79 (an average loss of 44-20). So, yeah if Domenik Hixon isn’t the Giants’ No. 1 receiver against the Eagles in the divisional round, and the Giants beat the Eagles (like they would have with Plaxico), then the Giants host the Cardinals in Giants Stadium on Jan. 18, 2009, and the Giants play the Steelers in the Super Bowl.

The Giants were on top of the world as defending champions and looking primed for another Super Bowl run before Plaxico’s big mistake. They were built for consistent success in the league, and visions of a dynasty filled my head. The way ’08 ended and the way ’09 and ’10 went, I wondered if the Giants would ever get back to the playoffs, which was a long way from thinking about a dynasty. It was second-half collapse after second-half collapse mixed with dagger losses and questionable coaching and general managerial decisions. But that all changed a few weeks when Tony Romo overthrew Miles Austin, and now the Giants are one win from getting back to where they should have been three years ago. They are one win from trying to salvage the lost time of the last three seasons.

Last week I turned to the greatest football motivator ever in Coach Eric Taylor from Friday Night Lights to help prepare for the Giants-Packers (Who cares if he’s not real? I still don’t believe he’s not real. That’s right I believe that Kyle Chandler is an actual high school football coach and not just some guy that’s an amazing actor.) Since last week went about as good as a playoff game could go for a 9-7, 8-point underdog on the road against the 15-1 defending champions, I figured we had to go back to Coach Taylor for the NFC Championship Game.

“I say if we do our best we will have success. And that we own the fourth quarter. The fourth quarter is ours.”

A lot of people think this game will come down to the fourth quarter, but I’m hoping it doesn’t. I’m hoping the Giants come out like they did against the Packers, get on the board early and never look back. But if the Giants can’t follow my simple strategy or if Ed Hochuli takes a few pages out of Bill Leavy’s ref manual and decides that he will do everything in his power to send San Francisco to Indianapolis then this game might come down to the fourth quarter, and I like our chances in the fourth quarter. The fourth quarter is ours.

Eli Manning is the two-minute drill and he’s the fourth quarter. Sure, “Flood Tip” needed a lot of things to go right to be successful, but it was a perfect throw to the corner of the end zone from the Packers’ 37 where Hakeem Nicks had gained position on the Packers defense. And it’s not like we haven’t seen Eli orchestrate incredible and memorable drives at the end of either half. (The drive before halftime against the Cowboys in 2007 divisional round was the biggest non-David Tyree play of that postseason.) It just so happens that Eli passed his brother and Johnny Unitas for the most fourth-quarter touchdowns in a single season in NFL history (take that, Tom Brady). So, yeah if this thing has to go down to the wire, we have the best possible quarterback for the job.

Then there’s Alex Smith, who is responsible for the 49ers’ miraculous comeback in the final minute against the Saints last week. And while it was fun to watch and while I’m thankful that he knocked out the Saints (so that the Giants wouldn’t have to go to the Superdome this weekend) it was still one drive.

There’s already talk about Alex Smith being an “elite” quarterback, and I feel like I’m taking crazy pills like Mugatu in Zoolander. Eli won a Super Bowl. He beat the undefeated Patriots. He had been to the postseason four times before this season and now has six postseason wins and a Super Bowl. He has been selected for the Pro Bowl twice and has done all of this in New York under the biggest microscope in the world with arguably the best quarterback in the history of football as his older brother. It has taken him beating a fourth-quarter touchdown record held by his brother and Unitas and a second playoff win in the Yankee Stadium of football to get non-Giants fans to believe in him.

Alex Smith has been in the league for six seasons and has won one playoff game, and has played in one playoff game. He has had five seasons of .500 football or worse in the league and has played in all 16 games of a regular season just twice. He’s responsible for the head coaching revolving door in San Francisco, and despite a 13-3 record this season, he’s 32-34 in his career.

Look at the situation Mark Sanchez is in. He’s 25 and has played in the league for three years. In his first two seasons, he led the Jets to back-to-back AFC Championship Games. Now after an 8-8 season and missing the postseason, his job status is being questioned and sports radio is being filled with questions like, “Is Mark Sanchez the right quarterback for the Jets?” and “Is Mark Sanchez a starting quarterback in the NFL?” So once again, “I feel like I’m taking crazy pills!”

Smith is two years older than Sanchez. He has played in the league for three more years than Sanchez and has accomplished far less than the Jets’ franchise guy, who despite what Woody and Mr. T say, might not even be the team’s starter in 2012.

Let’s not forget that Alex Smith was the No. 1 pick in the 2005 draft. The No. 1 pick! That means the 49ers thought he was not only the best available quarterback, but the best available player in the entire draft. If Smith had been drafted No. 1 by the Jets and put in Mark Sanchez’s situation and put up the numbers he has put up in San Francisco, he would have either quit or been released by now, and probably wouldn’t be allowed in the tri-state area.

Somehow Sanchez is viewed as a loser who can’t win the big game while Smith is now being treated like someone who has done anything at all in the league, and there’s actual debates about him moving up to the top tier of quarterbacks because he won a single playoff game in six years. Sometimes I hate football.

“Gentlemen, there has been a lot of talk about expectations. Expectation of what we should be able to do, to win. People are expecting … people are expecting quite a bit. I see us winning out there tonight. I have no trouble seeing that. That is not what I’m expecting. I expect you boys to go out there and not take this team lightly, because I promise you … they are gonna come at you with everything they’ve got. I expect you boys to execute. I expect you boys to play football.”

I have tried to keep the hype on the Giants quiet, and I have tried to keep my confidence about this Giants team in the playoffs and this game on Sunday to a minimum. But it’s really hard to not see the 49ers, the perennial underachievers under Alex Smith and look at Super Bowl XLVI in Indianapolis and not think the Giants have an unbelievable chance of getting there.

The problem is exactly what this quote talks about in “expectations.” I think I have mentioned it in everything I have written about the Giants since they started this miracle run almost a month ago, so why not talk about it again?

The Giants aren’t good with expectations. Actually they suck with expectations. When they came back to beat the Cowboys, everyone thought they would go on this special run since they had their signature close loss to the undefeated Packers (just like the Week 17 loss to the Patriots in 2007). Instead they came out and got lit up for the second time during the season by Rex Grossman and the Redskins. Then they were playing a must-win game against the Jets, and came out sluggish before Victor Cruz’s touchdown changed everything.

They were given a decent shot at beating the Falcons at home, but people expected them to lose. They weren’t really given a shot to beat the 15-1 Packers in Green Bay, and people expected them lose big (Las Vegas opened them at 9-point underdogs. The line moved to 7.5 and then back to 8 before the game.) But now they are still alive after fending off everyone counting them out, and they have done enough to make believe in them with the majority of people now picking them to win in San Francisco this weekend.

“Right now y’all are in control of your destiny. You remember that.“

For the Giants to be where they are, a lot of things had to fall perfectly.

Tony Romo had to overthrow Miles Austin on third down in Dallas (This was the most important because with a first down, the Giants’ season is over). Then the Giants had to complete the comeback.

The Giants had to beat the Jets, which it didn’t look like they would before Victor Cruz’s 99-yard touchdown.

The Giants had to beat the Cowboys again, this time at MetLife Stadium

The Falcons had to win in Week 17 and the Lions had to lose so the Giants would play the easier opponent of the Falcons in the first round than the Lions, who didn’t appear to be a good matchup for the Giants.

The Giants had to beat the Falcons.

The 49ers had to beat the Saints, so that if the Giants beat the Packers, the Giants wouldn’t have to play the Saints in New Orleans were the Saints were 9-0 this year (including the playoffs) and outscored opponents by an average of 41-19, and had already beat the Giants in Week 12.

The Giants had to go on the road and beat the 15-1 Packers who had lost one game with Aaron Rodgers as the starting quarterback since Nov. 28, 2010 and won four playoff games and a Super Bowl in that time.

So, here we are. Everything and I mean everything has broken just right for the Giants to be playing this Sunday in San Francisco. They have gotten help around the board for the possibility to play the lesser 49ers for a chance to go to the Super Bowl, and they have to know this, and they have to do their part in completing the massive parlay they hit to get here.

And my picks for the NFC and AFC Championships…

New York Giants +2.5 over SAN FRANCISCO
I think I have said what I need to say.

Giants 31, 49ers 16

Baltimore +7 over NEW ENGLAND
Everyone is talking about the Tom Brady Revenge Tour? What Revenge Tour? Is he a punk rock band? Is winning one playoff game against the .500 Broncos at home considered “revenge” for losing in Denver to a completely different Broncos team six years ago? Is going 13-3 in the regular season with zero wins against teams with winning records considered revenge?

I love Patriots hype. It’s my favorite kind of hype in sports. People are still expecting the Patriots to win and people are still picking them to win it all. It reminds me of the Yankees from 2001-2008. Everyone still believed they were the Yankees, but as they got more and more separated from their 2000 championship, people began to pick against them. We still haven’t gotten to that point with the Patriots even though it’s been seven years since they won the Super Bowl.

The Patriots don’t have a defense though not many teams in the league do. But the Patriots have zero defense. We saw it all year long. The problem is we didn’t see it last week because the Broncos offense is so bad. So, there’s Vince Wilfork and Rob Ninkovich and Brandon Spikes dancing around and going nuts, and Gillette Stadium rocking as the Patriots won their first playoff game since the 2007 AFC Championship Game. And that’s what everyone’s last image of the Patriots currently is. It’s Tom Brady throwing for six touchdowns, their defensive line rocking Tim Tebow’s world and the most convincing of playoff wins with a 45-10 score. The Patriots didn’t prove anything last weekend other than that they can beat a first-year starting quarterback and the option at home in a playoff game coming off a bye. Congratulations!

But you know who has a defense? The Ravens. They have had the best defense in the league for the last 12 or so years, and if they had a real quarterback during that stretch they would have won at least one other Super Bowl since 2000.

You need a defense or a pass rush or something to win in the playoffs the way you need starting pitching in the playoffs. There’s a reason the Yankees didn’t win for eight years. You can’t let Jon Lieber and Kevin Brown and Jaret Wright and the Ghost of Roger Clemens start playoff games and think you’re going to win. And there’s a reason the Patriots haven’t won the Super Bowl since they turned their team from a defensive juggernaut into an offensive one.

Feb. 5, 2012 will be a rematch of Jan. 28, 2001.

Ravens 24, Patriots 21 (“We’re only going to score 21 points? Haha. OK. Is Plax playing defense?”)

Last Week: 2-2
Postseason: 5-3
Regular Season: 118-129-12