Giants – Page 22 – Keefe To The City

Dec 18, 2013

NFL Week 16 Picks

The Giants’ season has been over for a month, but the picks season still has 43 games to go.

It’s feel like the NFL season has already ended to me and that’s because the Giants haven’t played a meaningful game sine their Week 12 loss to the Cowboys a month ago. Now I’m stuck looking at an under-.500 picks season, there’s no fantasy football left to be played and the amount of games available to wager on will start to dwindle as teams lock up playoff berth and home-field advantage or mail it in for the last two weeks.

With Christmas Eve, Christmas and New Year’s Eve all in the next 13 days, football takes a backseat to the holiday season. But once New Year’s ends, football is back with Wild-Card Weekend and that’s when I lean heavily on football to get through the frigid January weather in the northeast. (Thankfully this year we have the Winter Olympics and therefore Olympic hockey to get through the February weather.)

But before I can even start to think about playoff football, I have to finish strong here in the last two weeks of the regular season with my picks. I’m currently 101-113-9 and 43 games left in the season, including playoffs, I have to finish at least 28-15 to finish over .500 for the season. It’s not going to be easy, but I have a 10-5-1 Week 15 to build off of.

Miami -3 over BUFFALO
It’s Week 16 and there is a lot on the line. Out of the 16 games, 13 of them have playoff implications with five divisions and eight playoffs spots still available. One of those games is this one because if the Dolphins beat the Bills and the Patriots lose to the Ravens, the Dolphins will be one game back of the Patriots with one to play. Sure, the Patriots play the Bills next week and will win that game and the Dolphins really don’t have a chance to win the AFC East (this is half the truth and half a reverse jinx attempt), but let me at least believe for a week, Football Gods?

CAROLINA -3.5 over New Orleans
The Saints have put themselves in a bad spot. If the NFC playoffs were to go through New Orleans, the Saints would easily be the NFC’s representative in the Super Bowl. But because of the Saints’ 3-4 road record (they are 7-0 at home) with brutal losses to the Patriots, Jets and Rams, the Saints are now playing for the NFC South title in Carolina. If this game were at the Superdome, I would be all about the Saints like always. But on the road, I’m going against them … like always.

Dallas -3 over WASHINGTON
Come on, this one is easy. There’s no doubt in my mind that the Cowboys will go to D.C. and walk all over the Redskins to make the Week 17 Cowboys-Eagles game in Dallas the NFC East Championship Game. Every year the Cowboys find themselves playing in a win-or-go-home situation in Week 17 and this year will be no different.

ST. LOUIS -4.5 over Tampa Bay
Did you know the Rams have more wins (6) than the Giants (5)? Sure, two of those wins came against Jacksonville and Houston, but the Rams did beat Arizona (9-5), Indianapolis (9-5), Chicago (8-6) and New Orleans (10-4). No, the Rams wouldn’t have been a playoff team if Sam Bradford didn’t get hurt considering they play in the same division as Seattle and San Francisco, but they are at least on the right track for the future, which is more than you can say about the New York Football Giants.

Cleveland +2 over NEW YORK JETS
You know who else has more wins the Giants? The Jets, that’s who. The Jets, who went weeks without throwing for a touchdown have more wins than a team just 23 months removed from winning the Super Bowl and a little over a year removed from looking like they could win the NFC East and possibly even have a first-round bye. No, things haven’t flipped in the New York football landscape (a terrible landscape to be a part of) and the Giants are still king, but it’s never a good look to finish a season worse than the Jets. Let’s go Browns!

KANSAS CITY -7 over Indianapolis
Here are the points against the Chiefs in their first nine games, which were all wins: 2, 16, 16, 7, 17, 7, 16, 17, 13. And here are the points aginst the Chiegs in their last five games: 27, 41, 35, 10, 31. I’m not sure what has happened to the Chiefs’ defense since their first loss of the season back in Week 11, but when the Raiders are putting up 31 on you at home it’s never good. Knowing that, I would normally shy away from the picking for the Chiefs to cover a touchdown at home, but this is the Colts we’re talking about and no playoff team has the ability to get run out of a building on the road like the Colts.

Minnesota +8 over CINCINNATI
I originally had the Bengals to cover here, but I thought more about it and the Vikings have covered for me so many times this year that I can’t turn my back on them now. (And my girlfriend, a Vikings fan, would probably give me a glare and not talk to me for at least 20 minutes upon finding out I picked against her Vikings.)

Denver -10.5 over HOUSTON
The same week in which reports come out that the Texans passed on Peyton Manning, Peyton returns to Reliant Stadium where he tormented the Texans for years. The last thing you want to do is pick against Peyton in a dome with the single-season touchdown record and the AFC’s No. 1 overall seed on the line. Maybe he will choke in January and the Broncos will lose in the divisional round, but when it comes to the regular season, Peyton Manning knows how to get the job done.

Tennessee -4.5 over JACKSONVILLE
There it is! It’s that Game of the Week …

Somewhere someone who isn’t a Titans or Jaguars fan is going to bet on this game and watch it in its entirety. Think about that.

SEATTLE -11 over Arizona
Carson Palmer in Seattle. Carson Palmer in Seattle. Carson Palmer in Seattle.

DETROIT -9.5 over New York Giants
I’m not sure what line would make me feel uncomfortable picking against the Giants right now, but 9.5 in Detroit certainly isn’t it. Maybe if this line were -13.5 or higher I would start to think twice about it, but even then, this Giants team has already started thinking about the Monday after Week 17 and a desperate Lions team at home only makes matters worse.

Oakland +10 over SAN DIEGO
I am always big on the Raiders covering against the Chargers and usually the line is a lot lower than 10. The Chargers have proven to be a December disaster in recent years and now that they have played themselves into an unlikely-but-still-possible position for the playoffs, I’m thinking the Raiders’ money line isn’t a bad decision here either.

GREEN BAY -2 over Pittsburgh
I have a feeling we are going to be looking at the NFC North being decided in Chicago next week between the Bears and Packers. You just know the Packers are going to win and then Aaron Rodgers will be back in Week 17 to face the Bears. That’s just how things happen. It’s what the Football Gods want.

BALTIMORE -2 over New England
It’s very weird to not see the “x” next to New England in the standings entering Week 16 to represent the Patriots’ clinched playoff berth. It’s even weirder not to see the “y” next to the “x” showing that the Patriots have also clinched the AFC East with two weeks left. The Patriots aren’t used to playing meaningful late-December games and now they will have to try and clinch the division on the road against the defending champions, who seem to pull off a different miracle each week.

Chicago +3 over PHILADELPHIA
Unfortunately, next week in Dallas, either the Cowboys or Eagles have to win. And one of those teams has to win the NFC East and make the playoffs. But that’s next week. This week it’s still easy to decide who to root against when it comes to an Eagles game.

SAN FRANCISCO -13 over Atlanta
This game would have been in every 10-point teaser this weekend if it weren’t Monday Night Football. But I can’t imagine a lot of people will want to create a 10-point teaser over two days and instead will end up taking the 49ers -13 by themselves on Monday night. That means this line isn’t going to stay at -13 for long and I am thankful it was there when I wrote this.

Last week: 10-5-1
Season: 101-113-9

Blogs • Giants • NFL

Dec 12, 2013

NFL Week 15 Picks

It’s ball-busting time in the NFL and the Giants are part of that group now that they have been mathematically eliminated from the playoffs.

It’s crunch time. Not just for me and my quest for .500 (I’m 91-108-8 and 17 under .500), but in the NFL where every division is (technically) still up grabs as are the second wild card in the AFC, seedings and home-field advantage. I don’t have an NFL season anymore because the Giants didn’t care to beat the Cowboys in Week 12 and now if I care to watch the Giants, which I don’t, it will only to be in hopes that they can spoil other team’s seasons.

When I referred to the Giants as “spoilers” after their recent mathematical elimination, my girlfriend referred to her Vikings as “ball busters,” which is her way of saying “spoilers,” which I decided to adopt over the traditional “spoilers” term. The problem is the Giants aren’t a true “spoiler” or “ball buster” because they aren’t used to playing for nothing in Week 15. And when you’re used to playing for something, it’s hard to get up when you’re playing for nothing. To be a true “ball buster” you have to be used to being a “ball buster” and using the last month of the season as your own Super Bowl since the possibility of playing in the actual Super Bowl is no longer a possibility.

With so much still on the line for teams that have a chance of playing in January, there are plenty of games featuring “ball busters” this week. So if you’re like me and the next meaningful NFL game for you without monetary meaning isn’t until Week 1 in 2014 then welcome to the Ball-Busting Party. There is plenty of room for all of you.

DENVER -10.5 over San Diego
I’m now 11-4-1 with Thursday picks. That means I’m 80-104-7 when it comes to picking games on Sunday and Monday.

If the Chargers hadn’t blown out the Giants last week then this line would be at least 13.5. But because the Giants have nothing to play for and Tom Coughlin couldn’t motivate a team with playoff aspirations and therefore can’t motivate one without them and because Eli Manning and the offense couldn’t care about at least finishing the year with respectable stats, the Chargers beat the Giants 37-14. So while it’s disappointing that the Giants will be going a second straight year without playoff football, at least you gave us this gift of the Broncos only giving 10.5 points to the Chargers.

Washington +7 over ATLANTA
The Redskins are in full-on crisis mode and it’s great. Their owner is being pressured to change the team’s name, their head coach is playing a game of chicken for his job with the owner, the franchise quarterback won’t hold himself accountable for a 3-10 season and the head coach has a broken relationship with the franchise quarterback and is about to start the backup quarterback for the final three games of the year. I’m no Mike Shanahan fan, but the best part of all of this is if the Redskins finish the season strong with Kirk Cousins as their quarterback, it will create the ultimate quarterback controversy entering the same year in which the Rams have the Redskins’ first-round pick because of the trade for Robert Griffin III. Let’s go Redskins!

San Francisco -6 over TAMPA BAY
I still don’t believe in the Buccaneers, mainly because I don’t want to.

Seattle -7 over NEW YORK GIANTS
I wish this game were in Seattle because then we could see just how bad things are for the New York Football Giants. If the Saints can go to Seattle and only score once and lose 34-7, what would happen to the Nothing To Play For Giants in Seattle?

Unfortunately, this game is at MetLife Stadium and those Giants fans who are crazy enough to sit in the snow and rain expected on Sunday to watch a 5-8 team play the NFC’s eventual Super Bowl representation will only get to see half of the blowout this game would have been in the Pacific Northwest.

Chicago -1 over CLEVELAND
A “There Are Three Games Left In The Season And We Can Still Make The Playoffs” quarterback controversy in Chicago! I love it!

Player A: 1,908 yards, 13 TDs, 8 INTs

Player B: 1,809 yards, 13 TDs, 1 INT

Player A is the Bears starting quarterback. Player B is the Bears backup quarterback.

Right now the Bears have the same record (7-6) as the NFC North-leading Lions, but lost to the in Week 4 (40-32) and Week 10 (21-19), so they lose out on the head-to-head tiebreaker. The Bears’ final three games are at Cleveland, at Philadelphia and home against Green Bay. The Lions’ final three last are home against Baltimore, home against the Giants and at Minnesota. The Lions clearly have the favorable schedule, but they’re the Lions and you can bet on them losing at least one of the three and possibly more, leaving the door open for the Bears.

The Bears are optimistic that Cutler will play this week against the Browns, but Cutler last played on Nov. 10 in that Week 10 loss to the Lions and before that, he hadn’t played since Oct. 20 in the Week 7 loss to the Redskins. This Sunday will be Dec. 15 and Cutler will have just 40 pass attempts in the last eight calendar weeks. If it’s up to me, I’m starting McCown in Cleveland. But either way, I’m picking the Bears.

INDIANAPOLIS -6 over Houston
It’s the weirdest team in the NFL against the most underachieving team in the NFL! The Colts haven’t won back-to-back games since their three-game winning streak from Week 2 to Week 4, yet they still clinched the NFC South last week despite going 4-4 over their last eight games. Earlier in the year it seemed like a given that the NFC East was the worst division, but the division has a combined record of 23-29 right now. The NFC South? Their combined record is 19-33. The NFC East might be the most underachieving division, but they’re no longer the worst.

JACKSONVILLE +1 over Buffalo
There it is! It’s that Game of the Week …

Somewhere someone who isn’t a Jaguars or a Bills fan is going to bet on this game and watch it in its entirety. Think about that.

MIAMI +2.5 over New England
I asked Mike Hurley what the Patriots are against the spread, so I wouldn’t have to go through and look and count the numbers myself since it seems like they cover, or at least don’t cover double-digit spreads. But he didn’t know. He guessed they are .500 against the spread. So because he “guessed” and I care deeply about giving my readers accurate information, I went back and looked. They are 6-7 against the spread, so Hurley was basically right since they can’t be .500 with 13 games played. I just wanted to be right when I said the following last week:

No team fails to cover spreads like the Patriots, but for some reason, every week they are favored by two possessions and every week I talk myself into taking them. I guess I do it because someday they will cover a spread like this 10.5-point one and I don’t want to miss out when they do.

I thought that most Patriots fans would have given up the idea of the Patriots reaching the Super Bowl without Rob Gronkowski, but there are still some believers out there given how awful the AFC is. Right now the Patriots are looking at playing at home in the divisional round against either the Bengals, Ravens, Chiefs or Colts. If they were to win that game, which they will (kind of a reverse jinx and kind of not) then they would play in Denver for a trip to the Super Bowl. So once again the Patriots are looking at playing one challenging playoff game to reach the Super Bowl.

MINNESOTA +6 over Philadelphia
Nick Foles, Chip Kelly and the Philadelphia Eagles are going to win the NFC East, but I’m going to pick against them all the way to their division title.

CAROLINA -11.5 over New York Jets
You could add 10 points to this line and I would still take it. The Panthers have lost one home game this season, which was their first game of the season against Seattle. Since then they are 5-0 at home and have won by 38, 15, 24, 4 and 21 points.

This past Sunday against the Raiders, the Jets threw a touchdown pass and it was made into a big deal after relying heavily on their running game the entire season. The problem is they will be going against the best run defense in the league this week and one that has only allowed 79.4 rushing yards per game.

Over/under 3.5 points for the Jets in Carolina?

Kansas City -5.5 over OAKLAND
Am I missing something here? Is there supposed to be a “1” before the first “5” in this line? Because while that would be a little ridiculous, it would make more sense than the Chiefs giving 5.5 to a team that just let the Jets put up 37 on them, considering the Jets scored just 46 totals points over their previous four games.

Arizona -3 over TENNESSEE
The Cardinals are 8-5 and aren’t a playoff team right now because Seattle is going to win the NFC West (they have a three-game lead over Arizona) and Carolina (9-4) has a hold on one wild-card berth and San Francisco (9-4) has a hold on the other. Fortunately for the Cardinals, they host San Francisco in Week 17, but unfortunately for the Cardinals, they have to play in Seattle in Week 16. The Cardinals are going to fall just short of the playoffs, but a season with at least eight wins with Carson Palmer as the starting quarterback should be applauded.

ST. LOUIS RAMS +6 over New Orleans
Inside the Superdome, the Saints are the best team in the NFL. Outside the Superdome, the Saints are one of the 10 worst teams in the league and maybe even worse than that. After embarrassing the Panthers in New Orleans, the Saints’ undefeated home streak with Sean Payton as coach is now at 16 games. But this season, once again, outside the Superdome the Saints can’t be trusted. And yes, they are playing in a dome, but they played in a dome in Atlanta in Week 12 and barely got out of there with a win.

Green Bay +7 over DALLAS
So it looks like Aaron Rodgers won’t be playing again this week and might not again this season as the 6-6-1 Packers watch their season slip away. Since Rodgers has become the Packers starting quarterback, here’s how their seasons have finished:

2008: Missed playoffs
2009: Lost in Wild-Card round
2010: Won Super Bowl
2011: Lost in divisional round (first game)
2012: Lost in divisional round after beating Joe Webb and the Vikings in the Wild-Card round

So in the last five years with Rodgers as the starter, the Packers have won five playoff games with four of them coming in the same year. And if the “Miracle at the Meadowlands” doesn’t happen, the Packers don’t even make the playoffs in 2010 let alone win the Super Bowl. Maybe the “Best Player in the League” title is a little inaccurate?

Cincinnati -3 over PITTSBURGH
Like the Giants, the Steelers have nothing to play for.

DETROIT -6 over Baltimore
We are still a few weeks away from my column breaking down which team I want to win the Super Bowl with the Giants unable to. The Lions are in that mix.

Last week: 9-7-0
Season: 91-108-8

Blogs • Giants • NFL

Dec 5, 2013

NFL Week 14 Picks

The quest for .500 continues with four weeks left in the regular season.

Last week I went into the 4:00 games with a 7-2-1 record between the Thanksgiving games and the Sunday 1:00 games. I ended up finishing the week at 8-7-1. That pretty much sums up this picks season.

Week 14! Let’s go!

(Home teams in caps)

JACKSONVILLE +3.5 over Houston
After a 2-1 Thanksgiving Day, the Thursday picks are 10-4. This is the one game I feel confident picking.

Kansas City -3.5 over WASHINGTON
Once upon a time, the Chiefs were 9-0. Now they’re 9-3. With three consecutive losses to the Denver (27-17), San Diego (41-38) and Denver (35-28) again, the Chiefs have given up almost more points in the last three weeks (103) than they had in their first nine games (111). But now the Chiefs go to Washington where the Redskins are marred by a 3-9 record and a season of turmoil that will likely lead to the departure of Mike Shanahan at the end of the season and will lead to a long offseason of “Robert Griffin III or Kirk Cousins” debates. I can’t wait.

Minnesota +7 over BALTIMORE
I’m picking the Vikings here because they have done a good job for me this season and I want to repay them for their efforts. But really I’m picking them because I want the Ravens’ offense to get off a lackluster start so that John Harbaugh brings out the Wildcat and then Joe Flacco calls out Harbaugh again in his postgame press conference. These are the things you look forward to in Week 14 when your team is 5-7 and the playoffs aren’t a real possibility.

NEW ENGLAND -10.5 over Cleveland
No team fails to cover spreads like the Patriots, but for some reason, every week they are favored by two possessions and every week I talk myself into taking them. I guess I do it because someday they will cover a spread like this 10.5-point one and I don’t want to miss out when they do.

Oakland +3 over NEW YORK JETS
Geno Smith has thrown eight touchdowns and 19 interceptions this season. His last touchdown pass came on Oct. 20 in Week 7. It’s now Dec. 5 and Week 14. Here is what Smith has done since Week 7.

Week 8 at Cincinnati: 20-for-30, 159 yards, 0 TD, 2 INTs

Week 9 vs. New Orleans: 8-for-19, 115 yards, 0 TD, 0 INT

Week 11 at Buffalo: 8-for-23, 103 yards, 0 TD, 3 INTs

Week 12 at Baltimore: 9-for-22, 127 yards, 0 TD, 2 INTs

Week 13 vs. Miami: 4-for-10, 29 yards, 0 TD, 1 INT

He has thrown eight touchdowns and 19 interceptions this season. His last touchdown pass came on Oct. 20 in Week 7. It’s now Dec. 5 and Week 14.

Indianapolis +7 over Cincinnati
Yes, I know the Bengals are undefeated at home and the Colts are the weirdest team in the NFL, but seven points with two 8-4 teams?

Detroit +2.5 over PHILADELPHIA
Yes, the Giants are done when it comes to the playoff picture. But there is that little, tiny, miniscule, minute chance that they could get in. The only way that’s possible is if the Eagles and Cowboys collapse. And given the history of both teams, it’s very possible. The one problem is that the best record the Giants can be is 9-7. The Eagles and Cowboys are both 7-5, but play each other in Week 17, so one of the two teams will win at least one more game this season. So let’s say the Cowboys win that Week 17 game, that means at worst they would finish the season 8-8. And let’s say the Eagles finish the season 1-3 and end up 8-8 also. That’s what it would take for the Giants to make the playoffs.

Miami +3.5 over PITTSBURGH
I just don’t want the Steelers to do well, OK?

TAMPA BAY -3 over Buffalo
There it is! It’s that Game of the Week …

Somewhere someone who isn’t a Buccaneers fan or a Bills fan is going to bet on this game and watch it in its entirety. Think about that.

GREEN BAY -4 over Atlanta
Yes, I’m still upset about the parlay from last year.

DENVER -13.5 over Tennessee
The Broncos are 6-0 at home this season and have won by margins of 22, 16, 32, 16, 24 and 10 points. That’s good enough for me.

ARIZONA -6.5 over St. Louis
The Cardinals couldn’t help the Giants out last week by pulling off the late-game comeback against the Eagles and usually that would make me pick against the team I needed. But in this case, I’m staying with the Cardinals since if I pick against them, they will cover. Yes, that’s what this picks season has come to.

New York Giants +4 over SAN DIEGO
The over/under on stories from the FOX broadcast team about the 2004 Draft and Eli Manning and Philip Rivers during this game is set at 12.5 and I have the over. Even if the Giants’ season is over, I don’t want Eli to lose to Rivers, or get outplayed.

SAN FRANCISCO -2.5 over Seattle
Why wait until Feb. 4 to have the Seahawks-Broncos Super Bowl? Why not just have it right now while temperatures are still somewhat manageable since that’s what the Super Bowl matchup is going to be? The same way the Broncos and Falcons met in Super Bowl XLVII. The same way the Patriots and Packers met in Super Bowl XLVI. And the same way the Patriots and Falcons met in Super Bowl XLV. Sure there are years like 2009 when the Colts and Saints (both 1-seeds) did end up playing in the Super Bowl, but more times than not the 1-seeds don’t meet.

NEW ORLEANS -3.5 over Carolina
Do I need to post it again from old picks? OK, I will …

The Saints’ last home loss with Sean Payton as head coach came in Week 17 in 2010 when they had nothing to play for. Including the playoffs, the Saints have won their last 15 home games since that loss and here are their margins of victory going back from Week 4 in 2013 to Week 2 in 2011 with Payton as head coach: 21, 24, 6, 17, 28, 29, 14, 25, 11, 55, 7, 17, 18, 32 and 3.

CHICAGO +1 over Dallas
What I said about the Eagles.

Last week: 8-7-1
Season: 83-101-8

Blogs • Giants • NFL

Nov 28, 2013

NFL Week 13 Picks

After another devastating weeks of picks, a .500 season is a pipe dream at this point.

It’s Week 13 and after 12 weeks of learning about each of the league’s 32 teams, you start to feel confident, well somewhat confident, when making picks. After going 34-54-4 through the first six weeks of the season, I went 36-31-3 over the next five weeks, only to lay an A.J. Burnett-like egg in Week 12 with a 4-10-0 week. But with five weeks left before the playoff picks start, .500 seems like a pipe dream at this point.

It’s a pipe dream because we’re now at the point in the season where more teams are eliminated from contention and on the brink of mathematical elimination and the motivation of the postseason and the Super Bowl is no longer possible. Instead coaching staffs, some who are coaching for their livelihoods, are forced to manufacture artificial motivation, which is hard to do in a sport where you’re asking players to sacrifice their own livelihoods on every play in a lost season. And that’s why after inching so close back toward the .500 mark, it’s going to be hard and likely impossible to get there when you don’t know what to expect from teams you thought you have figured out over the first 12 weeks of the season.

Week 13! Let’s go!

(Home teams in caps)

DETROIT -6.5 over Green Bay
Thursday is when I feel the best with my picks. With an 8-3 record on Thursday Night football this season, I get three games to try to once again turn my season around.

The Lions have lost 15 of their last 16 games against the Packers, which doesn’t bode well for picking a team to not only win but cover 6.5. But none of those games came across a recycled Matt Flynn, who couldn’t start in Oakland or Buffalo and needed Aaron Rodgers and Seneca Wallace to both get hurt for another chance in Green Bay.

DALLAS -9.5 over Oakland
It pains me that the NFC East will be represented by either Dallas or Philadelphia either and it pains me even more that on Thanksgiving Day I will have to watch the Cowboys improve to 7-5 while everyone gets ready to write the “woe is Tony Romo’s career” stories. The only good thing is that I will get the “Tony Romo will never win” stories in a little over a month.

Pittsburgh +3 over BALTIMORE
When these two teams met in Week 7 I said:

Let’s go back to when Joe Flacco became the starting quarterback of the Ravens in 2008 and see how these two-game season series have gone.

In 2012, the Ravens won 13-10 and the Steelers won 23-20. In 2011, the Ravens won 35-7 and 23-20. In 2010, the Ravens won 17-14 and the Steelers won 13-10. In 2009, the Ravens won 20-17 in overtime and the Steelers won 23-20. In 2008, the Steelers won 23-20 in overtime and 13-9.

That’s 10 games with eight of them being decided by three points, one being decided by four points and one being decided by 28 (the Steelers had seven turnovers, yes seven turnovers, in that loss). Forget picking the Ravens to cover, is there a prop bet that this game will be won by exactly three points?

The Steelers won that Week 7 game 19-16. That means nine of the 11 games have been decided by three points.

This game will be decided by three points. And when you know that, how can you not take the points?

INDIANAPOLIS -4.5 over Tennessee
I will never figure out the 2013 Indianapolis Colts. Their wins have been against Oakland, San Francisco, Jacksonville, Seattle, Denver, Houston and Tennessee. There losses have been against Miami, San Diego, St. Louis and Arizona. They have wins against arguably the best three teams in the NFL and losses to three teams with losing records. In November, they went 2-2, beating the Texans and Titans both by three points and losing to the Rams by 30 and the Cardinals by 29. I don’t believe in the Colts, but I believe in Andrew Luck more than Ryan Fitzpatrick.

Jacksonville +7 over CLEVELAND
There it is! It’s that Game of the Week …

Somewhere someone who isn’t a Jaguars fan or a Browns fan is going to bet on this game and watch it in its entirety. Think about that.

Also, Brandon Weeden is starting.

CAROLINA -7 over Tampa Bay
Everyone is riding high on the Buccaneers right now and how Greg Schiano turned the team around and is punching his ticket to another season and another chance in Tampa Bay despite everything that went wrong (and everything went wrong) in the first two months of the season. If the Panthers win this week and the Saints lose in Seattle (and the Saint are going to lose in Seattle) then the two teams will be tied at 9-3 atop the NFC South. That means the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ image reconstruction will be stopped in Carolina.

MINNESOTA 0 over Chicago
In Chicago, with Jay Cutler, the Bears needed a last-minute touchdown to beat the Vikings 31-30 in Week 2. Give me the Vikings.

Arizona +3 over PHILADELPHIA
If the Giants season is over then I don’t want the road to the division title to be easy for either the Eagles or the Cowboys. The Eagles still have the Arizona (7-4), Detroit (7-5), Chicago with Cutler (6-5) and Dallas (7-5) remaining on their schedule. Their only easy opponent is Minneosta in Week 15, but that game is at Minnesota. Maybe the Giants can get back into it? What? I’m just kidding.

Miami +2 over NEW YORK JETS
The 5-6 gongshow that has been built in the AFC is an absolute joke, but because every mediocre team has a chance to make the playoffs as the 6-seed in the AFC, the Jets and Dolphins are still in it. Normally I would take the home team in a divisional matchup giving less than three points, but with Mark Sanchez saying he will be a Jet next year and back and better than ever, who isn’t pulling for a Jets collapse followed by yet another Jets quarterback debacle next season?

New England -9 over HOUSTON
The Texans are a disaster. They were 2-0 after their Week 2 win over the Titans on Sept. 15, but since then they are have lost nine straight games and six of the nine games have been decided by less than a touchdown. I thought that after Case Keenum took over as the starting quarterback and the Texans blew that big lead on Sunday Night Football in Week 9 that they could turn their season around or at least finishing strong. But since then they have lost three more games. Their season is long gone.

BUFFALO -3.5 over Atlanta
Yes, I’m still picking against the Falcons for costing me the 10-to-1 Championship Weekend parlay last season. And I plan on picking against them for that for a long time.

St. Louis +9 over SAN FRANCISCO
After Colin Kaepernick threw for 412 yards in the 49ers’ Week 1 win over Green Bay, I thought we were looking at the beginning of the next dynasty with the 49ers’ progression after their 2011 NFC Championship Game loss then their 2012 Super Bowl loss. But since then Kaepernick has only passed for 200-plus yards in two of the other 10 games and the 49ers at 7-4 are certainly one of the top tier teams in the league, but not what I expected them to be. I thought they easily be the best team in the NFC, but they aren’t. The best team in the NFC beat the 49ers by 26 points. If anything, the 49ers are the Colts of the NFC.

KANSAS CITY +5.5 over Denver
The knock on the Chiefs prior to the last Chiefs-Broncos meeting two weeks ago was that they could play great defense, but Alex Smith couldn’t take over a game when needed (like he he hasn’t been able to do in his entire career) and the only way for the Chiefs to win would be through their defense. The defense held Denver to 27 points on the road, but Smith wasn’t able to carry the team like everyone predicted. That loss must have rattled the Chiefs since the following week they scored a season-high 38 points against the Chargers, but allowed a season-high 41, against which was 14 more than they had previously allowed all season. The Broncos proved in Foxboro and also in Indianapolis that they are a different team on the road when the opponent is good and even with the Chiefs’ noticeable flaws, the Broncos as 5.5-point favorites is too much.

SAN DIEGO -1 over Cincinnati
Who’s that still alive in the playoff hunt at 5-6? Why its another AFC team! Yes, the Chargers, who started the year 2-3 and then endured a three-game losing streak in November, are still in the playoff picture. And the good news for the Chargers is that four of their five remaining games are at home where they have beaten the Cowboys and Colts and suffered an eight-point loss the Broncos, which is almost a victory. Meanwhile, the Bengals can’t be trusted to put away the AFC North and the Bengals certainly can’t be trusted on the road.

WASHINGTON +2 over New York Giants
This is actually one of those …

Somewhere someone who isn’t a Giants fan or a Redskins fan is going to bet on this game and watch it in its entirety. Think about that.

Yes, this is one of rhose games, but because it’s Sunday Night Football and everyone’s last chance of the day to wager on a game, a lot of non-Giants and non-Redskins fans will be betting on it.

It’s never easy picking against your own team especially when playing against a division rival who’s 3-8. But the Giants are 4-7 and virtually the same team as the Redskins. Neither team has anything to play for that point. The Giants aren’t making the playoffs. The team isn’t even talking about the possibility of making the playoffs. So what is the Giants’ motivation at this point? A winning season? Respectability? This team has suffered several second-half collapses during the Tom Coughlin era with their motivation being the playoffs. So now you’re asking me to believe that they are going to start winning games with the motivation being something other than playing for a championship? No thanks.

SEATTLE -5.5 over New Orleans
It’s the battle for home-field advantage in the NFC playoffs with the current 1-seed playing the current 2-seed. If this game were in the Superdome, there’s no doubt the Saints would win. It’s actually a guarantee they would win. But like always, when you take the Saints out of the Superdome they aren’t the Saints. And that goes for normal road stadiums. But CenturyLink Field isn’t your normal road stadium and the worst possible place the Saints could play their most important game of the season (see: Seahawks-Saints 2010 playoff game).

Last week: 4-10-0
Season: 75-94-7

Blogs • Email Exchanges • Giants

Nov 22, 2013

The Season Comes Down To Giants-Cowboys Once Again

The Giants will play for their season on Sunday against the Cowboys and that calls for an email exchange with Dave Halprin of Blogging the Boys.

The first thing I do when the Giants’ schedule comes out is look for the Cowboys games the way I look for the Red Sox games when the Yankees’ schedule comes out. It’s an instinct. And this year when I saw that the Giants would be playing in Dallas in Week 1 I thought about all of the hype and anticipation that would be created for a rivalry game on Opening Night on Sunday Night Football, which in turn only added to the hype and anticipation. And when I saw that the Cowboys would come to MetLife in Week 12, I thought it would be the perfect time for a big 4:25 p.m. game with the division potentially on the line like the 2010 Week 10 game between the two teams in East Rutherford.

After the Giants started off the season with six straight losses and basically eliminated from the playoffs, I didn’t care about the remaining 10 games on the schedule and certainly didn’t care about the second meeting with the Cowboys on Nov. 24. But the Giants got the stars to perfectly align for them and their schedule and the results of other NFC East teams’ games and now at 4-6, they will finally play for their season on Sunday against the Cowboys.

With the Giants’ season once again coming down to needing a win at home against the Cowboys, I did an email exchange with Dave Halprin of Blogging the Boys to talk about the game, what’s happened to the Cowboys since Week 1 and whether or not Jason Garrett’s job is safe.

Keefe: The last time we talked was before the Sunday Night Football opener. The game turned into what I call the “Disaster in Dallas” after starting with an Eli Manning interception and not stopping until the Giants had turned the ball over six times in their 36-31 loss (a win for you).

Since then the Giants lost five more games and were proud owners of an 0-6 record heading into their Monday Night Football matchup with the Vikings. But then things changed.

Over the next five weeks, they won that game on Monday Night Football against Josh Freeman, beat Matt Bick (a combination of Matt Barkley and Michael Vick despite having lost to Nick Vick – a combination of Nick Foles and Michael Vick in Week 5), held off Tashad Pennings (a combination of Terrelle Pryor and Rashad Jennings) and got past Scott Tolzien. Everything broke right for the Giants with the Vikings quarterback-less, Vick and Foles being injured, Terrelle Pryor getting injured and Aaron Rodgers being out.

Yes, the Giants are now 4-6 and with a win against your Cowboys on Sunday they control their own destiny. But right now I’m not sure which Giants team to expect since they haven’t seen a real starting quarterback for a full game since losing to Jay Cutler and the Bears in Week 6 and maybe the team we have seen (mainly the defense) over the last four games isn’t a true indicator of who the Giants are or have become and the first six games are who they really are.

While the Giants have been fighting to get back into the race and the playoff picture, the Cowboys haven’t been able to run away with the NFC East (since if they had, we wouldn’t be having this email exchange) and why is that?

Halprin: The Cowboys have been as frustrating as ever in 2013. Handed a perfect opportunity to run away with the NFC East early this year, they bumbled and stumbled their way to a 5-5 record, allowing both the Eagles and Giants to get firmly back into the race. The Cowboys defense has been dreadful in most statistical categories except one: turnovers. If it wasn’t for that, the Cowboys would be in really bad shape. As it is, all those turnovers have helped to keep the scoring from the opposition to a slightly more manageable number.

The Cowboys hustle and scrap like crazy on defense, but they just aren’t very good. Offensively, the team has been in a slump recently. Plenty of people have come under fire for that including play-caller Bill Callahan and Tony Romo. There have been issues with both of their performances, so the question is did they get it straightened out over the bye week?

Keefe: The NFC East teams have a combined 18-23 record with a -97 point differential. Somehow despite having the division with the best all-around quarterbacks, the NFC East has transformed into what the NFC West was before the 49ers and Seahawks turned their franchises around over the last few years. In a division with Eli Manning, Tony Romo, Robert Griffin III and Michael Vick/Nick Foles it doesn’t seem fathomable that the NFC East could be the worst division in the league.

And with the emergence of Foles as the starting quarterback in Philadelphia and with the Eagles sitting atop the division at 6-5 and able to control their own destiny, do you believe they could win the division? Everyone is making it feel like the division comes down to this Giants-Cowboys game and that the winner of it will eventually on to win the division, but maybe that’s just the perception in New York? Who is the bigger obstacle for the Cowboys: the Giants or Eagles?

Halprin: I think that’s the perception in New York. Dallas realizes that it would be VERY beneficial for them to win in New York, but a loss, at least from a math point of view, doesn’t come close to eliminating the Cowboys from contention.

For a couple of weeks, Cowboys fans have been looking more at the season-ending game against the Eagles as a possible win-or-go home scenario for the NFC East. Dallas has played in two of those in the past two years in Week 17 (Giants in 2011 and Redskins in 2012), maybe it’s just destined that they will do it again this year with the Eagles.

Don’t get me wrong though, this game is huge for both teams and we know it. Dallas needs to get some confidence going again after getting blasted by the Saints and it needs to happen this week. If they lose, it’s possible it could start a chain-reaction demise in Dallas.

Keefe: Jerry Jones gave Jason Garrett his vote of confidence this week, which means absolutely nothing. How many times in sports do coaches or managers get a vote of confidence only to be fired later?

Right now, Garrett has a 26-24 career record as head coach of the Cowboys with a 5-3 finish to the 2010 season, 8-8 seasons in 2011 and 2012 and now a 5-5 record this season. Nothing says mediocrity like being two games over .500 as a head coach, especially when coaching a team with as many elite offensive players as the Cowboys have had during his tenure. And after two third-place finishes in both of his full season as Cowboys head coach and with the possibility of not winning the NFC East in this down year, is there any truth to Jones’ statement that making the playoffs won’t impact Garrett’s future? I’m not sure he comes back even if the Cowboys do make the playoffs and don’t win a playoff game.

Halprin: If the Cowboys make the playoffs he’s coming back without a doubt. You can bet the farm on that. I think for Jason Garrett to not come back in 2014 Dallas would need to go 0-6 or 1-5 over these last six game. If the team bottoms out that badly, then Jerry will likely have no choice since the fan base would be in total revolt and he would have nothing statistically to say Jason is the guy. Of course Jerry might hang on to him anyway at that point just to prove a point, but I think the pressure to fire him would be immense.

If the Cowboys don’t make the playoffs but play well enough that it doesn’t look like Jason has lost the team or anything, then he will likely come back. Jerry has a lot invested in Garrett and he really wants him to succeed. Not just for the Cowboys, but so Jerry will look smart for hiring him, designating him a head-coach-in-waiting all the way back to when he hired him as offensive coordinator. He desperately wants to give him another year, so if the bottom doesn’t fall out, then he’ll likely bring him back.

Personally I agree Garrett should come back if the team contends and doesn’t fall apart even if they don’t make the playoffs. I actually think he’s got the culture of the franchise going in the right direction, and I think he knows what he needs to do to succeed. He just hasn’t gotten there yet. I’m willing to give him more time … unless he goes 0-6 to end the season!

Keefe: Two years ago in Dallas in Week 14, the Giants trailed by 12 with five minutes and 41 seconds left before pulling off a miraculous comeback to save their season. Then three weeks later in Week 17, the Giants hosted the Cowboys for a winner-take-all game for the division. The Giants won that game 31-14, won the NFC East and ran the table in the playoffs for the second time in five seasons.

If the Giants lose this game, their season is over with seven losses, two of them against the Cowboys, a 1-3 division record and a somewhat challenging five-game schedule to finish the season. Even if the Giants win this game, they are going to need help with the Eagles currently controlling their own destiny, so if the Giants lose this game they would need even more help and really too much help to reach the postseason.

For the Cowboys, a loss wouldn’t necessarily end their season, but I’m sure Cowboys fans and the media will react as if their season is over.

How is this game being treated and viewed in Dallas and what do you expect on Sunday?

Halprin: That’s the thing, if the Cowboys lose they are still mathematically very much alive, but for Dallas it goes deeper than that. They were manhandled by the Saints, embarrassed by them, and the offense has been struggling which is supposed to be the strength of the team. They, and the fan base, have had two weeks to sit and stew about that loss while also having to watch the Eagles grab the NFC East lead by half a game. It’s been a nightmare, and we’ll be without Sean Lee for at lest a few more games.

All of this has been building for the team and the fans, and now all that energy will be released on Sunday. Either the Cowboys will win and we’ll feel right back on tack, tied with the Eagles but with a 4-0 record inside the division. All will look rosy for getting back to the playoffs. If we lose, it will be a mega-disaster. The Cowboys are falling apart, they are losing the NFC East, this team can’t recover.

Emotionally, it will be an extreme response either way. But rationally, mathematically, winning puts us in a better position, but with plenty of room to blow it. And losing would drop us a bit, but by no means would be fatal. So that’s the split for us on Sunday.