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Yankees, Blue Jays Back to Battling for AL East

I usually hate when the Yankees go to Toronto, but after the weather in the first five games of the season, some start times you can count on in a dome isn’t the worst thing.

Toronto Blue Jays

After having Opening Day rained out and Sunday Night Baseball rained out, there’s been way too much rain for the first week of the baseball season. I’m usually nervous about the Yankees going to Toronto where they haven’t experienced much success of late, but with a dome and start times you can count on, going to play the Blue Jays right now isn’t the worst thing.

With the Yankees and Blue Jays picking up their heated rivalry from last season in Toronto, Tom Dakers of Bluebird Banter joined me to talk about the Blue Jays’ playoff loss in the ALCS, trading away the farm system for a season that didn’t end with a World Series and what will happen with Jose Bautista’s contract situation.

Keefe: The last time we talked, the Yankees and Blue Jays had seven games left against each other in September. Things didn’t go the way I hoped. The Blue Jays beat up on the Yankees down the stretch the way they beat up on the entire league from the end of July on and went on to win the division.

In the playoffs, the Blue Jays fought back from a 2-0 deficit to beat the the Rangers in six games, but ended up losing in six games in the ALCS to the eventual champion Royals.

Were you devastated by the Blue Jays’ ALCS loss or were you just happy that they were back in the playoffs for the first time since 1993?

Dakers: Well, I’d say a little from column A and a little from column B.  I had tickets and a hotel room for the World Series games in Toronto. I was sad for a few days. But, taking the long view, the playoffs were great fun. I enjoyed almost every minute, minus some terrible strike calls in the last inning of the final game (I can’t wait for our robot overlords to take over the job of the home plate umpire).

It has been far too long since we had playoff baseball in Toronto, so I’m not going to complain about it.

Keefe: To make that run at the playoffs, the Blue Jays made a barrage of trades that included trading a combined 12 players for David Price, Troy Tulowitzki, LaTroy Hawkins, Mark Lowe and Ben Revere. Price is now on the Red Sox, Hawkins retied, Lowe is on the Tigers and Revere is on the Nationals. The only player remaining from all those deals is Tulowitzki.

Sure, it’s hindsight, but looking back and knowing that the Blue Jays did reach the postseason, but didn’t win the World Series, would you still make all those deals?

Dakers: Oh, I wouldn’t have made the trade for Lowe, but beyond that, I’d make the other trades. Tulowitzki hasn’t exactly performed, at least offensively, the way we’d like, but Jose Reyes’ range had disappeared. And he made a couple of bad errors to lose us games. So really, the team needed to find a way to get rid of his contract. Tulo, while he hasn’t hit great, at least can play short.

Price seemed to bring the team clubhouse together. It’s too bad that we re-sign him, but then long term contracts for starters in their 30’s never seem to end well.

Keefe: It was enjoyable to watch David Price get lit up in his Fenway Park debut (along with Craig Kimbrel), but I did want to see Price pitch on Sunday in Toronto. The Blue Jays will have plenty of chances to face Price this season, but it would have been special to watch him try to navigate his way through the top of the Blue Jays’ order in the opening weekend in Toronto in his first trip back there.

I don’t think anyone can blame Price for taking the deal he did since it’s absurd for anyone to be paid $1 million per start let alone someone who isn’t the best pitcher in the league. Here’s to hoping Price fades like CC Sabathia and then choose not to opt out after 2018 and the Red Sox are on the hook for all of the $217 million of his deal.

Price made 11 regular-season starts for the Blue Jays and went 9-1 with a 2.30 ERA, but went on to give up 16 earned runs in 23 1/3 innings in the playoffs. How will you remember the short-lived David Price era in Toronto?

Dakers: I guess what I’ll remember most is how much he seemed to enjoy being in Toronto. He was great on the days he started, but he was head cheerleader on the days he didn’t start. He seemed to enjoy his teammates and they seemed to like him. Alex Anthopoulos said he was the best guy he’s ever seen in the clubhouse. I’m not sure how much that is really worth, but it is fun to like the players you are cheering.

Of course, now that he’s a Red Sox he’s dead to me.

Keefe: At the beginning of spring training, Jose Bautista made headlines for supposed “contract demands” that have been reported in the five-year, $150 million range or close to that amount of years and dollars. Bautista is 35 right now and will be 36 when next seasons starts, so a five-year deal at that cost would make him a 40-year-old player earning somewhere near $30 million.

What do you think of Bautista’s “demands” and what would you give him?

Dakers: I think players always ask for more than they expect to get, at the start of negotiations. Bautista has been the face of the team, for so long, that I would overpay for him, but not to the level that Jose is suggesting.

Bautista is going to have to be moved out of right field soon. His range isn’t what you would like in right anymore (though it is fun watching him throw runners out at the plate).

Bautista has been doing a lot of work to keep himself in shape and, he feels, that it will keep him a valuable player into his early 40’s. I have my doubt about it, but if it were up to me, I’d ask Jose to share the risk of a long term deal. I’d offer something like $25 million a year for two years (and I’d likely go up from there is he insisted) and then a series of team options, with high enough buy outs to make Jose happy, for the next 3 years.

Jose’s eye at the plate and his power, does make him a candidate to continue to bring value for at least the next couple of seasons.

Keefe: Also, what do you think of all the preseason bat flip talk?

Dakers: I think baseball is a game, and I think players should have fun. The bat flip in the playoff game came after a very emotionally draining inning. It seemed like the Jays were going to lose series on, what might be. the strangest play I’ve ever seen. Then three errors in the bottom of the inning is something that I’m almost sure I’ve never seen before too. The Bautista home run and the bat flip seemed to release of the emotions of that weird inning.

I think the “no fun” police should learn to relax. The line the fun police use is “he’s showing up the pitcher”. Well, in this case the pitcher just lost the series for his team. If he’s more worried about someone “showing him up” than about losing the series, aren’t his priorities messed up. Shouldn’t he be more worried about winning for his team than something that’s all about him?

Keefe: On July 28 of last season, the Blue Jays trailed the Yankees by eight games in the AL East. Just 15 days later on Aug. 12, they led the division by a 1/2 game, and from Aug. 23 on, they were in first place.

The Blue Jays still have a vaunted lineup and maybe the best offense in baseball. Outside of the departure of Price, their rotation is still intact with new ace Marcus Stroman having more experience under his belt. In what should be a clustered AL East, you could make the case for any of the five teams winning it this season, and the Blue Jays will likely be right there again five months from now.

Coming off their first postseason appearance in 22 years, what are your expectations for the Blue Jays this season?

Dakers: I expect them to, at least, be in the race for the playoffs. I expect the Jays will score a ton of runs (though the offense is off to a slow start). I’m hoping the pitching holds together well enough to keep the team winning.

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Tigers Take After Yankees with Big-Money, Free-Agent Spending

The Yankees leave cold New York for even colder Detroit where there’s snow in the forecast at Comerica Park and a powerful offense coming off a season-opening three-game sweep.

Miguel Cabrera and Justin Verlander

After losing in miserable fashion in miserable weather on Opening Day at Yankee Stadium, the Yankees bounced back to win the final two games of the series against the Astros. Now the Yankees leave cold New York for even colder Detroit where there’s snow in the forecast at Comerica Park.

With the Yankees in Detroit for a three-game series, Rob Rogacki of Bless You Boys joined me to talk about the contracts for Justin Verlander and Miguel Cabrera, the free-agent spending on Justin Upton and Jordan Zimmerman and if the Tigers will return to the postseason.

Keefe: When I looked at the Tigers’ payroll for this season and $198 million, I was surprised when you consider they have lost or traded Max Scherzer, David Price, Prince Fielder and Yoenis Cespedes in the last couple years. But I admire what Mike Ilitch does with the Tigers and his willingness to spend and overspend his money to try and bring in the best players to win a championship for Detroit. Let’s take a look at some of that money.

Justin Verlander had a no-hitter going on Opening Day before eventually earning a no-decision. Verlander is coming off of an injury-plagued 20-start season last year, which came after his worst season (4.54 ERA) since 2008. He just turned 33 years old and is owed $28 million this season, $28 million in 2017, $28 million in 2018, $28 million in 2019 and a $20 million vesting option in 2020.

After watching what CC Sabathia has become over the last three years after he was a dominant ace for so long, I can relate to what Tigers fans are either going through or inevitably going to go through with Verlander.

Were you in favor of the seven-year, $180 million extension he signed three years ago?

Rogacki: There is always a certain level of concern when locking up a player for that long, especially when the Tigers were a couple years from the contract even kicking in when he initially signed the deal. However, Verlander was the best pitcher in baseball when he signed the deal, and keeping a Hall of Fame caliber player in Detroit for his entire career means more to this city than just his on-field performance.

While Verlander’s recent down-turn makes his $28 million price tag look like a payroll anchor, it hasn’t stopped Mike Ilitch from continuing to spend on payroll. I have been advocating for a couple years now that Verlander’s struggles were injury-related, and his strong finish to 2015 (and sharp debut in 2016) are reinforcing that belief. He may not be the best pitcher in baseball anymore, but Verlander is still capable of going toe-to-toe with anyone on his best day.

I’m still not sure what to expect from this Tigers team, but their first three games have been promising. We know that they will hit, especially if Victor Martinez remains as healthy as he looks so far. When healthy, this team is the most talented club in the division.

That’s the key, though. Health. The Tigers have struggled with injuries over the past couple years, and lost Victor Martinez, Miguel Cabrera, Anibal Sanchez, and Justin Verlander to the disabled list at times last season. All four are crucial to the Tigers’ chances this season, and if they falter again, this team could once again find itself looking up at the Royals in the AL Central.

I said that the Tigers would go 85-77 on our site a week ago, and haven’t seen enough to change that prediction yet.

Keefe: When it comes to Miguel Cabrera, we’re talking about even more money. He’s owed $28 million this season and next, $30 million from 2018-2 and $32 million in in 2022-23 with $30 million club options in 2024 and 2025.

Cabrera has been the best hitter of this generation and has led the league in hitting in four of the last five years, including last year. When the Tigers signed Cabrera to the eight-year, $248 million extension two years ago, I agreed with it and I still do. If Robinson Cano could get $240 million then Cabrera is worth double that. And if you’re not going to pay Miguel Cabrera, who are you going to pay?

What were and are your thoughts on the Cabrera deal?

Rogacki: Like you said, if you’re going to give any player in the game $240 million, handing that money to one of the best hitters in our generation seems like a safe bet. Cabrera has stayed productive through a few injury-riddled seasons recently, but is coming off of his first healthy offseason since 2012-2013. As we saw on Friday, he is still one of the elite contact and power hitters in the game, capable of driving the ball to all fields. His contract is somewhat of a necessary evil, but Tigers fans have embraced him as their own, and he will be revered for decades, whether or not he eventually brings home a championship.

Keefe: Five years ago, it looked like Justin Upton might be the best young player in baseball. He hasn’t kept up that production and has fallen off a bit, but he’s still only 28 years old (he turns 29 in August).

The Tigers gave him a six-year, $132.75 million deal this offseason to be their left fielder and the fill the middle-of-the-order production they lost when they traded Yoenis Cespedes to the Mets.

What were your thoughts on the Upton deal?

Rogacki: Maybe this is a homer-ish answer, but I thought Upton’s contract was the best big-money deal signed last offseason. Not only was he a necessary move for a club that otherwise planned to start Tyler Collins in left field, but the Tigers gave him an opt-out clause after two years, a “get out of jail free” card of sorts for their payroll. While the final numbers (six years, $132.75 million) look gaudy, this will ultimately turn into a two-year, $44 million contract for a slugger in the prime of his career.

Keefe: Also this offseason, the Tigers gave five years and $110 million to Jordan Zimmermann to fill the void in the rotation left by Max Scherzer before last season and by David Price after they traded him to the Blue Jays at last year’s deadline.

Zimmermann has spent his entire seven-year career in the National League. Does giving that much money to someone who has never pitched with regularity in the American League worry you?

Rogacki: Zimmermann’s history in the National League doesn’t worry me as much as his injury history. He is the first person in baseball history to receive a $100 million contract after having Tommy John surgery, and the Tigers don’t have an opt-out clause in his deal to escape that contract.

Luckily, Zimmermann’s deal is relatively modest compared to some of the massive deals that were signed this offseason. He’s a fair margin better than Jeff Samardzija, who signed for $90 million in San Francisco, or Wei-Yin Chen, who got $80 million from the Marlins. If he can stay healthy for the entirety of his deal, the Tigers will be in great shape.

Keefe: Last season was the first since 2010 that the Tigers didn’t make the playoffs and their first losing season (74-87) since 2008. After dominating the AL Central for the last few years, it’s seemingly become the Royals’ division with everyone else jockeying for position behind them.

What are your expectations for the Tigers this season?

Rogacki: I’m still not sure what to expect from this Tigers team, but their first three games have been promising. We know that they will hit, especially if Victor Martinez remains as healthy as he looks so far. When healthy, this team is the most talented club in the division.

That’s the key, though. Health. The Tigers have struggled with injuries over the past couple years, and lost Victor Martinez, Miguel Cabrera, Anibal Sanchez, and Justin Verlander to the disabled list at times last season. All four are crucial to the Tigers’ chances this season, and if they falter again, this team could once again find itself looking up at the Royals in the AL Central.

I said that the Tigers would go 85-77 on our site a week ago, and haven’t seen enough to change that prediction yet.

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Yankees-Astros Opening Day Is Wild-Card Game Part II

Opening Day for the Yankees will be a repeat of the wild-card game as they host the Astros with Masahiro Tanaka on the mound against Dallas Keuchel. Let’s just hope the 2016 season doesn’t being with the same result the 2015 season ended with after the Yankees were shut out at home.

New York Yankees vs. Houston Astros

Opening Day for the Yankees will be a repeat of the wild-card game as they host the Astros with Masahiro Tanaka on the mound against Dallas Keuchel. Let’s just hope the 2016 season doesn’t being with the same result the 2015 season ended with after the Yankees were shut out at home.

With the Yankees and Astros opening the 2016 season on Monday in the Bronx, Ryan Dunsmore of The Crawfish Boxes joined me to talk about the wild-card game, the Astros having a true ace once again in Dallas Keuchel, watching the development of Jose Altuve and Carlos Correa and what the expectations for the Astros are following their successful season.

Keefe: I knew the Yankees were going to lose the wild-card game and every Yankees fan should have known it. Not only had the team limped to the finish line at the end of the season and blown a sizable lead in the division to the Blue Jays after the trade deadline, but they were dominated by Dallas Keuchel in June and August. In those two starts, both wins, here was Keuchel’s combined line: 16 IP, 9 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 21 K.

Sitting in Yankee Stadium during the wild-card game and watching Keuchel once again shut the Yankees down, allowing just three hits over six shutout innings with a walk and seven strikeouts was devastating. I thought if the Yankees could get Keuchel out of the game relatively early, which they did, that they could come back against the Astros’ weak bullpen, but they couldn’t even do that.

Through Keuchel’s first 47 games and 38 starts in the majors over 2012 and 2013, he was 9-18 with a 5.20 ERA. In the last two years, he’s gone 32-17 with a 2.69 ERA and won the AL Cy Young last season. After having the Roger Clemens-Andy Pettitte-Roy Oswald era and then going through a serious starting pitching drought in Houston, what’s it like to have that true ace again?

Dunsmore: It has been an absolute joy to have an ace back on the team, especially because it is Dallas Keuchel. As you referenced, Keuchel wasn’t expected to be a star at the end of those turbulent years he was pitching out of the bullpen. But he was worked his butt off perfecting his location and learning the “art of pitching”.

Keuchel will never be a flamethrower, he sits around the high 80s and the upper 90s. But what he does best is keeping the ball down and reading the batter’s swing. The scary part is that type of game translates well as Keuchel ages.

Keuchel is the perfect fit for this young, energetic team and the beard helps in the same city with James Harden.

Keefe: The Astros won Game 1 of the ALDS against the Royals. They had a 4-1 lead in Game 2 before losing 5-4. They won Game 3. They had 6-2 lead in Game with six outs to go before giving up seven runs and losing 9-6, and they had a 2-0 lead in Game 5 before eventually losing 7-2.

Were you upset after the Astros’ season came to an end, considering they held a lead in all five games and were six outs away from advancing in Game 4. Or because this version of the Astros arrived early, were you OK with the way the season ended since the team did reach the postseason and did win the wild-card game?

Dunsmore: I admit I was upset the Astros dropped the game for one reason and one reason only: the Royals didn’t hit the ball hard during the comeback during Game 4. Kansas City dinked and dunked its way to setting up the comeback. That is not to take away with the Royals, they battled in each at-bat and found a way to win.

You’re correct in your second part of the question. The ALDS loss gave the Astros experience, experience the team desperately needed. The loss will linger in the back of their minds, but losses fuel good teams like the Royals were fueled by the World Series loss the year before.

Keefe: I remember what it was like to have a first-round draft pick and shortstop finally get to the majors and be everything you imagined he would be. Carlos Correa, the 2012 first overall pick, burst onto the scene when he was called up to the Astros last season, hitting .279/.345/.512 with 22 home runs and 68 RBIs in just 99 games. He won the AL Rookie of the Year and became a catalyst at the top of the lineup for the Astros.

Correa won’t be 22 until September and is already one of the best players in the majors. Even though you had to suffer through nine postseason-less seasons, and four straight 92-plus loss seasons before last year, you’ve made it through to the other side and now get to reap the benefits of star young players. It’s easy to say it was worth it now, but when you were going through the last decade as an Astros fan, did you think you would get to see this day?

Dunsmore: I don’t think I’m a good example for your average Astros fan, I continued to watch 92-plus loss teams. So it did make things sweeter to see Astros general manager Jeff Luhnow’s plan “The Process” come full circle. It is really satisfying to see a team build a winner with prospects. The Crawfish Boxes staff has been able to watch prospects come through the system to now become key cogs in the Astros playoff team. There is more investment.

Your average Houston fan checked out for six years and didn’t come back until the final months of last season. As is the case with Houston sports not called football.

Keefe: It’s very rare that I truly like non-Yankees players, but Jose Altuve is one of those players, and he’s easily my favorite non-Yankee in the majors. To do what he does at 5-foot-6 and 165 lbs. (both of which seem like a stretch) is amazing. A career .305 hitter and three-time All-Star in five seasons, Altuve had been one the bright spot on some awful Astros teams. It seems like he’s been in the league for a decade, but he’s still just 25 and won’t turn 26 until May 6.

How long did it take you to realize how good someone of that stature could be?

Dunsmore: It honestly didn’t take long to fall in love with Jose Altuve. You can see the hustle at every moment he is on the field. He doesn’t have a gear lower than 100 percent.

He was originally told by an Astros scout to go home during international tryouts, but he returned the next day to win a contract. I think the Astros front office has to know how special Jose Altuve is since that day.

That is why the Astros have pushed him through minors from Double-A to the majors in 2011. He’s shown the hustle that everyone loves since he was still wearing those terrible black and brick uniforms.

Keefe: Last year, the Astros won the second wild card, beat the Yankees in the Bronx and had nearly beat the defending AL champions and eventual World Series champions in the ALDS. But seemingly every team in every sport suffers a devastating loss before they can eventually win and maybe what happened in Game 4 of the ALDS ends up being the Astros’ devastating loss.

The Astros were supposedly ahead of schedule with their success last season and now that the team has once again had success and has reached the postseason, their youth has experience in big spots and they’re no longer a team on the rise.

After the team’s success last season and now that they are the favorite to win the AL West, what are your expectations for the 2016 Astros?

Dunsmore: I expect the Astros to make the playoffs. I won’t say they are AL favorites or World Series favorites. The team seems like a few developing prospects (flash to A.J. Reed and Colin Moran) away from winning it all. The pitching staff has a high floor, but isn’t blowing anyone away if Lance McCullers is on the shelf for a long time.

If Houston wins the division, I will be happy and roll the dice from there.

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Giants Already in Must-Win Mode Against Falcons

The Giants’ Week 1 disaster has them looking at a potential must-win game in Week 2. The one problem with that is Julio Jones and Roddy White are coming to East Rutherford.

Julio Jones and Roddy White

The Giants’ Week 1 disaster has them looking at a potential must-win game in Week 2. Sure, it might sound crazy to have a must-win game in Week 2, but after the way the last two season’s spiraled out of control early, the Giants have to be better on Sunday. The one problem with that is Julio Jones and Roddy White are coming to East Rutherford.

With the Falcons coming to MetLife for the Giants’ home opener, Dave Choate of The Falcoholic joined me to talk about the team’s decline over the last two seasons, the firing of Mike Smith and hiring of Pat Quinn and whether or not the criticism of Matt Ryan is fair.

Keefe: Three seasons ago, the Falcons had a 17-0 lead in the NFC Championship Game over the 49ers before eventually losing 28-24. I remember the game clearly because I had a 10-to-1 parlay on the Falcons and Ravens to win the championship games that day, but I’m sure you remember it even better.

After back-to-back first-round losses, it looked like the Falcons would finally overcome their postseason problems over the last 13 years and return to the Super Bowl for the first time since 1998. It didn’t work out and the Falcons followed it up with a 4-12 season in 2013 and a 6-10 season last year.

From being the No. 1 seed in the NFC and so close to getting to the Super Bowl only to become a third-place team in the NFC South, what happened to the Falcons over the last two years since their meltdown?

Choate: It was a lot of things at once. Mike Smith was a capable, even-keeled coach who had trouble when things started to go awry. Injuries hit, the team couldn’t get a ground game going, and too many players were unmitigated disasters on defense.

With the team feeling its lack of depth due to misses in the draft and free agency, Smith making a handful of very poor decisions that turned the fanbase against him, and the Week 17 collapse against the Panthers, ownership felt it was time to make a change. We’ll hope that bears fruit.

Keefe: After being on the hot seat for several seasons, Mike Smith was finally fired by the Falcons in December following seven seasons as head coach and just one playoff win. He was Coach of the Year in his first season (2008) with the Falcons and the team had two first-place finishes and three second-place finishes, but 2013 and 2014 were too much to overcome.

Now the team has former Seahawks defensive coordinator Dan Quinn as the team’s head coach and he won in his debut in Week 1 against the Eagles.

Were you a Smith fan and were you in agreement with his firing? Was Quinn your choice to replace him?

Smith: I always liked Smith, and I felt bad he was run out of town and had his otherwise sterling reputation tarred by the 2012 NFC Championship Game and the 2013 and 2014 seasons. That said, it was tough to argue with the idea that this team needed a change, given how poorly they played and how thoroughly everyone locally had turned on the team.

Quinn was probably my second or third choice to replace Smith (I liked Todd Bowles and Rex Ryan), but he’s proven to be a terrific hire thus far. Admittedly, it’s early.

Keefe: Matt Ryan had an impressive start to his career, but like any other quarterback, who hasn’t been part of a championship team or a team that has reached the Super Bowl, the lazy rhetoric that he can’t win the big game has started to be associated with him. Even if he has been asked to lead less-than-stellar teams in recent years, the attention always comes back to the quarterback though Ryan’s stats for each of his first seven seasons are pretty much identical.

Even as the team struggled the last two seasons, Ryan still had his usual seasons, which would have been good enough to win on many other all-around teams.

Are you a Ryan fan? Is the questioning of his big-game play fair?

Choate: The questioning of his mistakes is fair. Ryan can sometimes take risks and make sloppy throws that lead to turnovers, and that’s always going to hang over his head until he stops doing it entirely. It’s still relatively rare that his mistakes cost the Falcons the game, though, and I do think he takes more criticism than is warranted given his overall level of performance

Overall, I think Ryan is a top eight quarterback in the NFL, one of the league’s most dependable performers, and that it’s very possible he’s heading for his best year ever. I’m excited to see what he’ll do in 2015.

Keefe: Last week I had to worry about Dez Bryant before dehydration and a broken foot removed him from the game. This week, I have to worry about the two-headed monster of Julio Jones and Roddy White, but luckily I don’t have to worry about the Giants playing them in the Georgia Dome.

The Giants have a two-headed monster of their own in Odell Beckham Jr. and Victor Cruz, but Cruz didn’t play last week and won’t play this week and with Beckham missing the beginning of last season and Cruz missing most of last season, the two haven’t even played two full games together.

As a Falcons fan, you have had to deal with both Jones and White missing time in recent seasons. So I turn to you to ask how frustrating is it to know how could your offense can be when healthy, but isn’t healthy?

Choate: Extremely frustrating. The 2013 season was ruined by Julio Jones’ injury and the offensive line falling apart, and knowing that you’re without some of your top playmakers makes every loss and middling performance agonizing.

I hate to tell you this, but you’re headed for some unhappy days.

Keefe: If there’s a such thing as a must-win game in Week 2, this is it for the Giants. After blowing last week’s opener in Dallas, the Giants need to rebound before hosting the Redskins on Thursday Night Football. The good news is the Falcons are a different team when they play away from Georgia Dome and outside. The bad news is the Giants don’t usually play well at home.

For the Falcons, they had a nice Week 1 win over the Eagles as a home underdog, and have a tough start to their season with the Giants this week on the road, in Dallas next week and then home again the Texans the week after.

What do you expect to happen on Sunday?

Choate: I think a desperate Giants team at home is dangerous, and I fear the Falcons will fall to them in a fairly close game. My expectation is a 27-21 Giants win, with the Falcons suffering a little defensive pullback and some struggles playing outside of the Georgia Dome.

I do think it’ll be close, either way, and I hope the Falcons can pull one out.

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A Seven-Game Yankees-Blue Jays Series for the Division

The Yankees and Blue Jays are separated by 1 1/2 games and over the last 25 games the two teams play each other seven times. One team will win the AL East and the other will play in the one-game playoff.

New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays

The Yankees and Blue Jays are separated by 1 1/2 games in the standings and over the last 24 games of the season, the two teams play each other seven times. One team will win the AL East and the other will play in the one-game playoff.

With the Yankees and Blue Jays meeting for a crucial four-game series, Tom Dakers of Bluebird Banter joined me to talk about the Blue Jays’ run since the trade deadline, Josh Donaldson’s incredible MVP campaign, R.A. Dickey’s unbeaten streak, the return of Marcus Stroman and if the Blue Jays will win the East.

Keefe: The last time we talked the Yankees were 62-51 and the Blue Jays were 64-52. I said the two teams were set to begin a seven-week battle for the AL East with the loser going to the one-game playoff. Since then, the Yankees have gone 15-10 and the Blue Jays have gone 15-8.

Over their last 12 games, the Yankees have gone 8-4. Unfortunately, the Blue Jays have also gone 8-4, so the Yankees haven’t made up a single game and still trail the Blue Jays by one game in the loss column.
I understand the Blue Jays are a magical run and have rarely lost since the trade deadline, but this is out of control. Every time I check the Blue Jays score I expect to see them having scored 10 runs and am shocked when they don’t.

Do you believe this run is happening?

Dakers: It has been a fun month and a half. The Jays have been good all season, but their record has been far short of their Pythagorean Record all season, so we hoped that, at some point they, there would be a correction. Well, we got it.

When you look at the team, you do wonder if they will ever lose again, but no matter how good the team, slumps happen. The nice part is, no one guy has to carry the team. In the past, if Bautista and Encarnacion were to slump, we wouldn’t win. Now Donaldson or Tulowitzki or even Chris Colabello can take up the slack.

Adding Price, Tulowitzki, Revere, Hawkins and Lowe added some life to the team, made the team think that they can win every game and well as filling the weak spots on the team. Jose Reyes’ defense was not good enough, he showed little range and had this ability to make an error at the worst possible moment. Tulowitzki’s bat hasn’t been what we hoped, but it’s nice to have a shortstop with real range. And Ben Revere is much better defensively than Chris Colabello in left. David Price gives us the Ace we really needed. And adding Lowe and Hawkins to the pen has given us a nice deep pen.

Keefe: Does Josh Donaldson ever get out? He is hitting .307/.374/.592 this season with 37 home runs and 115 RBIs, but since July 29, he’s hitting .363/.434/.747 with 13 home runs and 47 RBIs in 38 games. He’s slugging .747! That’s insane. What’s even more insane is he is making $4.3 million this season. Stephen Drew is making $5 million.

I have been tweeting at Donaldson and Jose Bautista to remind them the bars in New York City stay open until a 4 a.m. in hopes that they will go on a bender this weekend and not perform well against the Yankees. Maybe they will listen.

What are you going to send Billy Beane to thank him for trading Donaldson to the Blue Jays?

Dakers: He can have my first born, or my right arm or really anything he wants. I have no idea what Beane was thinking. When you have one of the best players in the game, who is still under team control for several more seasons, you don’t trade him. I’ve always thought the way to build a team is to find those guys who are among the best in the game and build around them.

I liked Brett Lawrie, good player, Canadian, fun to watch on defense, but he’ll never be close to as good as Josh. The pitchers we gave up don’t look to be much better than back of the rotation types, so I really don’t understand where Beane thought he was getting fair value for Donaldson.

Add in that Donaldson seem to have the equal intensity to Jose Bautista (something I didn’t think was possible) he’s really helped give the team a “nothing short of winning is acceptable” attitude.

Keefe: The last time R.A. Dickey lost was on July 9 despite giving up two earned runs in seven innings. Since then he is 7-0 with a 2.68 ERA in 11 starts and the Blue Jays are 10-1 in those starts.
It seems like Dickey is finally pitching like the ace the Blue Jays thought he would be even though he no longer needs to be that guy with David Price in the rotation.

Are you impressed with R.A. Dickey this season?

Dakers: He’s had an up and down time of it. In his wins, he’s had an ERA of 2.39, in his losses his ERA is over 6. He seems to be very good or very bad, and there is little in between. He’s followed the same pattern in each of his 3 seasons as a Blue Jay, a poor first half (this year 3-10 with a 4.87 ERA and a good second half (7-0 with a 2.68 ERA).

I came into the season thinking that there was no way the Jays pick up his $12 million option for next season, figuring that, at 41, he’ll be reaching the age that even knuckleball pitchers have a hard time providing value. But if he continues to pitch like this, and we have a bit of a playoff run, they might prove me wrong.

Keefe: Of course Marcus Stroman is coming back to the Blue Jays’ rotation in time to face the Yankees. Why wouldn’t he?

What do you expect out of Stroman?

Dakers: I’m cautiously hopeful. I really didn’t expect him back this yeah but Stroman is someone you should never bet against. He’s got such a strong work ethic. I do imagine he could have a couple of rough starts, he’s only had two rehab starts (well in real games, he had some simulated games too), one very good, one not so good. In a perfect world, I’d like to see him get a couple more rehab starts, but then the minor league seasons are ending (and there isn’t all that much major league season left) so he gets thrown out there quicker than we would like.

The good news is that it was a knee injury, so he kept his throwing arm in shape all along. He’s been throwing hard in this rehab starts. I think, by playoff  time, he’ll be the Marcus Stroman we saw last season. It is just a question of how quickly he gets there.

Keefe: If the Blue Jays win the AL East, what is your ALDS rotation?

For me it would be Price, Dickey, hopefully Stroman and Buehrle. If Stroman doesn’t prove ready, then move Buehrle up and put Marco Estrada in the 4-spot.

Keefe: And if they have to play in the one-game playoff, I’m guessing you’re going with David Price. But let’s say he’s unavailable, who do you turn to?

Dakers: If Dickey keeps pitching the way he is right now, it would have to be him. He’s averaged over 7 innings a start, his last three times out there, and has an ERA of just 2.08. But then, Marcus Stroman has a month to show that he’s as good as last year, if he can do that, it the job might be his.

But, I think he idea of trading for Price as to have him make a one-game playoff start. I’d hope they will make sure that he is ready for the game.

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