Email Exchanges – Page 11 – Keefe To The City

May 2, 2014

The Yankees Lack Their Own Version of Evan Longoria

Evan Longoria puts fear into Yankees fans when he comes up, but the Yankees are lacking their own imposing figure they have always had.

Over Easter weekend, the Yankees were lucky to leave Tampa Bay with a series split despite winning the first game in the four-game series. The Yankees lost the second and third games of the series by a combined score 27-6, lost Ivan Nova to Tommy John surgery and had to have Dean Anna pitch. But that’s usually how things go for the Yankees at Tropicana Field.

With the Yankees and Rays playing a three-game series this weekend in the Bronx, Daniel Russell of DRaysBay joined me to talk about what’s been wrong with the Rays after a month, why Erik Bedard is part of the Rays’ rotation and if Rays fans miss Fernando Rodney in the bullpen.

Keefe: After beating up the Yankees on Friday and Saturday of Easter weekend, the Rays dropped six of seven before rebounding to sweep a doubleheader on Thursday in Boston. The Rays seem to have the same problem as the Yankees and Red Sox this season and that is scoring runs and scoring them consistently. For a team that has been built on strong starting pitching and a pesky lineup that will manufacture runs, what has been the Rays’ biggest problem after a month, or what has been your biggest problem with the Rays after a month?

Russell: So far the biggest issue for the Rays has been fielding a strong rotation. The Rays have always been very paranoid that they would suddenly lose all of their pitching depth, and that mindset is being confirmed through the first two months of the season.

The Rays held on to David Price, but injuries have plagued the other three mainstays. Alex Cobb looked poised for a monster year, but strained his oblique while batting in a National League game against the Reds. Jeremy Hellickson had loose bodies in his elbow he needed removed late in the winter, sidelining him until June. And of course, Matt Moore succumbed to Tommy John surgery. On top of that, one key player in the depth was Alex Colome, who was suspended for a veterinarian steroid, possibly used in his own recovery from an elbow injury.

Now the Rays are using a rotation that follows the depth chart as follows:
1. David Price
2. Alex Cobb
3. Matt Moore
4. Chris Archer
5. Jeremy Hellickson
6. Jake Odorizzi
7. Cesar Ramos
8. Erik Bedard
9. Nate Karns
10. Alex Colome

I placed him at the end, but Colome could arguably have been as high as eighth on the list.

Now the team is having trouble fielding a rotation that can make it through five innings per game, including two pitchers (Ramos and Bedard) who were still being stretched out. Each of their last starts were their first on the season without a pitch count limit.

The rotation is in dire straits.

Meanwhile, the positional players seem to be doing just fine. Wil Myers and a few role players like Logan Forsythe and Brandon Guyer are underperforming offensively, but the traditional combo of steady offense and superior defense have given the Rays position players the second-highest WAR in the American League.

Keefe: If you had success at some point in the majors, there’s likely to always be some sort of job for you out there. If you had some success at some point in the majors and you’re left-handed, there will always be a job for you. Erik Bedard is the perfect example of a guy who has been a decent pitcher and who has been plagued by injuries, but keeps finding work at the age of 35 as he is now on his fifth team in the last for years. And no one is a better posterboy for five innings, 100-plus pitches than Erik Bedard is.

Bedard seems like a guy who would have fit in with the pre-Maddon Rays or the Devil Rays era, but with the Rays building their success of the last six-plus seasons off dominant and young starting pitching, it’s weird to see him in the Rays’ rotation, even at just one-year, $1.15 million.

Is it odd that Bedard is taking up a rotation spot on the Rays? What are your expectations for him?

Russell: It certainly is odd, he placed third in the competition for the fifth-starter position during Spring Training and only stuck around on a minor league deal. He’s with the team due to desperation, at this point.

Bedard features heavy fastball use, both four-seam and two-seam, with differing change ups to match, and he can also throw a curve, slider, cutter, and probably an eephus. He’s wildly inconsistent with his control, so what each pitch will become is a mystery. That method can be effective, but it’s a dangerous game to play and personally infuriating to watch.

My expectations are for Bedard to last 100 innings and to do as Hanigan tells him to do.

Keefe: I don’t miss seeing Fernando Rodney pitching in the AL East for the Rays and against the Yankees, but this week I had to see him twice close the Yankees out as they lost both of their games against the Mariners.

I always felt confident when the Yankees had to come back late in a game and Rodney was on the mound as a member of the Tigers and Angels, but that changed when he went to the Rays, or at least for a year it did. Rodney had always been a guy who would men on base and try to escape save opportunities, but in 2012 he was as any closer for one year in history. Then in 2013 he sort of returned to being the pre-2012 Fernando Rodney and this season he has looked like his old self again.

I thought the Rays made the right decision not re-signing him and instead signing Grant Balfour to a two-year deal after he left via free agency a few years ago. But with Balfour’s early-season struggles, do you miss the crooked hat and the arrow-shooting Rodney?

Russell: The Rays were able to reign Rodney’s wild personality in two years ago, disciplining him into a consistent mound position while nurturing his quirky character. It paid dividends when he broke the major league record for reliever ERA, but the Rays knew he had the stuff to be a competent closer.

In 2013, however, he became his wily old self, moving about the mound and missing his spots too often. He sort of lost his poise, and the Rays favor a veteran presence on the mound in the ninth. Moving on from Rodney and his likely payday was understood.

Signing Balfour was no guarantee at the time, and to be honest I’m not sure what the Rays’ plan was before him, but I’m glad to have him back in a Rays uniform. He’s been inconsistent, allowing baserunners here or there, but the man is absolutely crazy and looks ready to murder.

In Game 1 of yesterday’s double header, Joe Maddon asked Balfour to walk David Ortiz with a man on second and two outs, but he just started barking at the skipper, demanding he pitch to Ortiz over and over until Maddon relented. Maddon said of it after the game: “He was so sincerely maniacally crazed and passionate about it that I chose to go ahead and do it. They call it the rage. but it was even a higher level than that.”

When you have a guy like that on the hill, he’ll get the job done. It might not be a 1-2-3 inning, but he’s reliable and crazed enough to make it happen. I’m glad he’s on board.

Keefe: After Miguel Cabrera, the last person I want up in the league against the Yankees is Evan Longoria. Longoria might not put up the numbers that Cabrera does, but against the Yankees, Longoria always seems to get a big hit or the big hit that eventually sends the Yankees to a loss. Manny Ramirez held the title for a long time and since I went to college in Boston, I always asked my friends who are Red Sox fans about which Yankees they feared the most at the plate.

So since I fear Longoria the second-most in the entire league, which Yankees do you fear the most?

Russell: I honestly don’t feel like the Yankees have that singular of a dominant figure in the lineup to have me shaking in my boots right now. It’s more a breadth of talented hitters, that classic collection of expensive bats, but no one really stands head and shoulders in the lineup or compared to the league. There’s certainly quality guys I’d rather not face — respectable hitters like Ellsbury, McCann, Beltran, Suzuki, and the impossible Jeter — but ahead of the series I’m not panicked.

If I had to pick one, I’d say Brett Gardner is the most intimidating guy in the lineup, definitely a difficult out whenever he comes up. It seems like if he isn’t striking out, he’s whipping around the bases. Who exactly Teixeira and Solarte are right now, and how to get them out is also an intriguing thought.

The Yankees just seem to wear you down with decent performances up and down the lineup. That’s why I’m excited to be facing guys like Johnson and Roberts and Ryan.

Keefe: The AL East is a gongshow. And by that, I mean right now all five teams are separated by three games and it seems like it’s going to continue to go that way for the entire season. No one looks ready to make a run or make a move and take a commanding lead in the division and injuries around the division are a big reason why.

Before the start of the season, I picked the Yankees to win the division, but had the Rays right there in it and as a wild-card team since nowadays the Rays are always in it. After a month of baseball, what are your expectations for the Rays and have they changed from how you felt before the season?

Russell: I’m impressed you thought the Yankees had the edge in claiming the division before the season began. The whole lot of teams are rather evenly matched right now, and it really does feel like a coin flip for the division between the Yankees, Red Sox, and Rays.

Tampa Bay has some ground to make up in the win column, and Alex Cobb needs added back into the fold before I feel confident about taking the division, but taking both games of the double header in Fenway sure did wonders for the standings. Taking two more in the Bronx this weekend will be fun.

I don’t expect the Rays to leap forward and start leading the division in the coming month, but I do expect the team to stay competitive enough through June before they break away and lead the pack. The first two months are always wacky in this division, though, so who knows what could happen.

Blogs • Email Exchanges • Yankees

Apr 29, 2014

The Yankees and Mariners Have More Connections Than Just Robinson Cano

Robinson Cano is back in the Bronx for the first time since signing with the Mariners and I still don’t blame him for leaving the Yankees for $240 million.

Robinson Cano is back in the Bronx for the first time since signing with the Seattle Mariners for 10 years and $240 million. When it comes to Cano’s decision to go to the highest bidder and saying the Yankees “disrespected” him, I’m still on his side. Cano would have been a Yankee if the Yankees really wanted him to be, but instead they chose to spend their money elsewhere. So far it’s worked out in their favor.

With the Yankees and Mariners meeting this week at the Stadium, I did an email exchange with Scott Weber of Lookout Landing to talk about Robinson Cano’s 10-year contract, what’s happened to Jesus Montero and if Mariners fan play out the way the Cliff Lee trade should have gone in their heads as much as I do.

Keefe: It’s going to be weird to see Robinson Cano playing against the Yankees for the first time on Tuesday night. Sure, I have already seen him in several games for the Mariners this season, but once you see him on the same field as the Yankees playing against the team he played nine seasons for, it will officially set it. Up to this point it has almost felt like he is just on the disabled list and we’re waiting for him to come back in the lineup. Unfortunately, that’s never going to happen.

Back in December when Cano chose the Mariners’ $240 million offer, I wrote this column based around the lyrics of Pearl Jam’s “Black” as I said goodbye to Cano. But I’m not mad at Cano, the same way I’m not mad at anyone who takes more money to do their job, especially when their former employer isn’t willing to up their dollars, or in this case, is more concerned about paying for outside talent. The Yankees could have afforded Cano if they weren’t so willing to overpay for Jacoby Ellsbury and Robinson Cano could have been a Yankee for life, if the Yankees really wanted him to be or cared for him to be. But now Cano is and will be a Mariner for 10 years, or until they trade him somewhere and agree to pay part of his salary.

What were your initial feelings on the Mariners’ negotiations with Cano and were you for the decision to sign him to such a lengthy and high-priced contract?

Weber: The Cano saga is really fairly simple to me. The Mariners have had trouble attracting free agents in the past thanks to stigmas about the pitcher-friendly ballpark and their recent string of failure on the field, so when they had a chance to sign a superstar, they just took it. They didn’t really need a second baseman as much as they needed a starting pitcher, first baseman, or outfielder, but there’s no guarantee you can land those players if you wait around. So, the Mariners blew Cano out of the water.

Nobody knows how he’ll age, but Cano profiles as such a pure, easy hitter that it’s likely he’ll be able to hold at least some sort of value in future years as a hitter. But I think we all know that his contract isn’t going to be worth it in years 6-10. For a franchise like Seattle, landing a guy like Cano is as much about changing the free agent culture as it is getting fair value in return. He’ll provide value in other ways to the franchise – at least that was surely the thought process. The money would have been wiser spent across multiple pieces, but the Mariners simply couldn’t plan like they could land the three pieces they wanted instead of Cano.

Keefe: I was excited for the Jesus Montero era in the Bronx after what he did in just 18 games during the 2011 regular season and then in the 2011 ALDS. I bought into the hype and Manny Ramirez-like comparisons and because of it, I wasn’t sure if I should be for or against the trade of him for Michael Pineda before the 2012 season. The Yankees did need young starting pitching and Pineda had been dominant for the majority of his rookie season, so I was fine with saying goodbye to what was supposed to be the the future heart of the order for the Yankees.

After the trade, Pineda spent the next two seasons not pitching and Montero spent that time regressing, getting sent down and then getting fat. But now Pineda has returned to his 2011 form (minus the pine tar disaster at Fenway) and Montero is playing in Triple-A.

What has happened to Jesus Montero since becoming a Mariner and how do you feel when you see Michael Pineda pitching like it’s 2011?

Weber: I’d like to see Pineda pitch without the pine tar before I anoint him back to form, but there’s no question that the Yankees look like they’re ahead on that trade now. For Montero, it was always about the bat, and if he could hit enough to stomach the defense. The bat was bad with flashes of brilliance, but the defense was miserable. Montero lacked basic fundamentals at the plate, all coming to a head when the Mariners lost a game on a force play at home by half a step. Montero’s positioning was set up for a sweep tag, with the wrong foot on the bag, glove side in. Had he been reaching out with the glove hand with his right foot on the plate, the Mariners might have salvaged that game. Basic stuff, just knowing the game situation and thinking about all possibilities before the pitch. It wasn’t long after that the Mariners bailed on Montero as a catcher, and not long after that he was popped with a 50-game suspension for his involvement with Biogenesis – after he repeatedly lied about it.

Then, Montero showed up to camp overweight, and the Mariners front office expressed their disappointment with him, reasonably so. But since then, he’s gone back to Triple-A, where he’s really hitting. He’s a first baseman and DH now, and while the power is impressive, the walk rate is not. He still has a lot to prove in order to get back into the conversation, but the Mariners don’t have any long-term options at 1B/DH. At the very least, he still probably has a future as a platoon bat in this league, and maybe more. He’s still only 24 years old, and doesn’t turn 25 until after the season is over. His future is up to him.

Keefe: Really, Jesus Montero should have been a Mariner long before he was traded to them after the 2011 season. He should have been one in July 2010 when the Yankees and Mariners seemed to have a deal in place that would have sent Cliff Lee to the Yankees and would have given the Yankees their second consecutive World Series. Instead a breakdown in talks because of Eduardo Nunez, who was DFA’d by the Yankees this season, and an injury to David Adams, who has played 43 games in the majors led to the Mariners sending Lee to the Rangers for Justin Smoak.

Do you ever think about what could have been if the Yankees and Mariners had completed their deal and Smoak never became a Mariner and Lee ended up in the Bronx? (I’m only wondering because I do daily.)

Weber: I’m not so sure you can automatically assign a World Series victory with Cliff Lee on the squad — Lee got shelled and lost both his games in the 2010 World Series — but surely it’s a move lamented by the Yankees. I’ve never been much of a Justin Smoak believer after his first two seasons, but there’s no doubt he’s provided more value than Jesus Montero has at this point, even if his contributions and eternal tease have prevented the Mariners from moving on. I don’t think about it much because both sides would have ended up pretty bad for Seattle. What I do think about is how the Mariners managed to get Cliff Lee in the first place for a bag of peanuts, and how they promptly managed to lose 101 games with him and Felix Hernandez pitching together. It was a fun three months, though.

Keefe: In 2010, Felix Hernandez went 3-0 against the Yankees with this line: 26 IP, 16 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 8 BB, 31 K. He made one mistake in 26 innings against the Yankees and it led to a Nick Swisher home run. They were three of the most dominant starting pitching performances in a single season I have ever seen and to me Felix had become the best pitcher in the world, taking over the title from Roy Halladay.

It’s insane that Felix first came into the league in 2005 and is just turned 28 this month. Given his age, dominance and health, I felt like his seven-year, $175 million deal was a steal for the Mariners and a bargain for the franchise.

What has it been like watching Felix grow in the majors from the time he was 19 to now and what are your thoughts on his contract?

Weber: I feel a lot better about Felix’s contract than Cano’s simply because of his age. Felix has also shown that he can pitch without his velocity, which is more than I can say for some of the pitchers who signed mega-deals after Felix inked his. Felix doesn’t thrown that mid/high 90’s heat anymore, but he’s striking out more batters every single year. He just knows how to pitch, and he’s a joy to watch. I’m thrilled that he’s here, and even more thrilled that he loves Seattle as much as he loves us. It was unbelievably exhausting to hear Yankee fans constantly pepper Mariner fans with “can’t wait until Felix is a Yankee in X number of years.” Not to associate you or your readers with that kind of fan — every city has them — but in Seattle, we took extra pleasure in keeping him out of pinstripes. As we say on the site, Felix is ours and you can’t have him.

Keefe: After their 85-77 finish in 2009, it looked like the Mariners might finally be heading back to being the team they were at the beginning of the decade, but instead they finished last in the AL West in 2010, 2011 and 2012 and if it weren’t for the Astros joining the AL last year, they would have finished last again in 2013. While the Rangers have grown to be a contender in recent years, the A’s have rebounded after a few down seasons and the Angels have been in the mix, the Mariners are the one AL West team (we won’t count the Astros in this conversation) who have been unable to regain their relevance and make a legitimate push for the postseason. Normally I don’t care about the success or failure of teams not named the Yankees, but I feel like I need to see Felix pitch in a postseason game (unless the Yankees and Mariners meet in the postseason during his career).

What are your expectations for the Mariners this season and the direction of the team? When will they finally get back to where they were 11-plus years ago?

Weber: The future of the franchise rests squarely on the young players. While I’m not a fan of the path the front office took to get to this point, long and winding with a lot of needless mistakes along the way, the talent around the field is all there. Now it’s up to them to perform, avoid injury, and take steps forward as this franchise grows. The team the Mariners assembled this year is their best in years, and looked like a .500 team on paper before all the injuries to Hisashi Iwakuma, James Paxton, and Taijuan Walker. For three major pitching contributions, their losses have been devastating. There’s just so much variability here. The Mariners could win 85 games as easily as they could love 85, and I wouldn’t be surprised either way. This slow start hasn’t helped, but if they can keep things respectable until their rotation gets back into shape, they could make some noise — but again, it’s up to the kids. They will be a playoff team at some point, but I’m unconvinced it’ll ever happen with GM Jack Zduriencik at the helm.

Blogs • Email Exchanges • Yankees

Apr 25, 2014

The Angels No Longer Own the Yankees

The Angels are in the Bronx for the first time this season and not so long ago that would have been worrisome, but the Angels’ days of owning the Yankees are over.

The last three seasons the Yankees have had a winning record each year against the Angels. That might not seem like a big deal, but before 2011, the Yankees’ last winning season against the Angels was in 2003. The Angels not only beat up on the Yankees in the regular season for the entire Joe Torre era, but they knocked them out in the ALDS in 2002 and 2005. But since the 2009 ALCS, everything has changed between the two teams.

With the Yankees and Angels meeting for the first time this season, I did an email exchange with Mat Gleason of Halos Heaven to talk about the contracts for Albert Pujols and Josh Hamilton, if Mike Scioscia’s time with the Angels is running out and what’s happened to the Angels since Yankees beat them in six games in the 2009 ALCS.

Keefe: The stories about the Yankees supposedly expecting to draft Mike Trout in 2009 draft, but losing the pick to the Angels, who drafted him, because of the Mark Teixeira signing will forever make me sick. Mark Teixeira has turned into Jason Giambi 2.0 because of the short porch at the Stadium, making him a pull-only hitter who won’t under any circumstances go the other way as a left-handed hitter. Good thing he’s only making $22.5 million this year as an average first baseman … and next year … and the year after.

Meanwhile, Trout has gone on to become Mickey Mantle 2.0. His numbers are ridiculous and he won’t turn 23 until this August. 23! That’s 23! I was hoping the Angels would somehow screw up any chance to sign him to a long-term deal and he would want to return back to the Tri-state area and play for the team he grew up rooting for: the Yankees. But Trout got his six-year, $144.5 million deal, so I guess I’m going to have to wait until 2021 for him to become a Yankee.

What has it been like watching the best young player in baseball develop as an Angel? What were your thoughts on his contract?

Gleason: The contract was a huge relief. Angels fans have been losing faith in this franchise after many many boneheaded moves so it was just a huge relief. Watching Trout every night has been the most entertaining thing in decades for me as an Angels fan. No matter where you are in the game you count the lineup to see how many at-bats away he is before you decide to make dinner or go to the bathroom, one of those “must-see” moments.

Keefe: After playing in just 99 games last year, Albert Pujols looks to be back to his usual ways, leading the league in home runs early with eight at age 34. And after hitting .250/.307/.432 in his first season with the Angels last year, Josh Hamilton looked to be back on track through eight games this year before tearing a ligament in his thumb, which could keep him out for two months.

I pair these two together because the Angels gave Pujols a 10-year, $240 million deal before the 2012 season and then gave Hamilton a five-year, $125 million deal before the 2013 season. At the time, it looked like the Angels stole the franchise player from the Cardinals and then stole the franchise player from the Rangers, but after 2013, it just looked like they spent $365 million on two aging, broken-down players.

What were your thoughts on the contracts when they were signed compared to now? What are the expectations now for these two?

Gleason: I had faith that Pujols would be great once he got healthy. I have no faith in Josh Hamilton. Sometimes it is not a good thing to be right all the time, you know what I mean?

Hamilton actually might come around this year. The contracts don’t bother me at all, in fact Seattle offered Hamilton more money and I believe Albert will be worth the dough. If inflation takes off in hte larger economy he might be a bargain in six years!

Keefe: Mike Scioscia has been called “the best manager in baseball” in the past and this seemed like a generally agreed upon rhetoric through the 2009 season. But after the last few years, Scioscia’s abilities and whether his time has run its course with the Angels has been called into question.

Scioscia is signed through the 2018 season, but does have an opt-out clause after the 2015 season as part of his 10-year deal. Is Scioscia on the hot seat this season with the Angels? Are you a Scioscia fan, or would a postseason-less season mean it’s time to move on?

Gleason: There are managers who are managing at a higher level than Mike. When he came into the league he was the chessmaster but he is now playing checkers compared to younger managers who have read and understood basic Bill James.

His biggest weaknesses are the rigid roles he assigns relievers, his willingness to stick to veterans in the lineup over rookies who might benefit from playing time, his assertion that the major league level is not a teaching level, which deprives young pitchers of developing new pitches, among other things. He has been bunting less than ever, runs players less than ever and seems overmatched by simple concepts of high leverage and on-base percentage. Fifteen years is a long time and he really is a testament to how the game has changed radically in that time. He just hasn’t kept up. But I have no faith in the front office to keep up. A new hire is no guarantee that things would be any different so in that regard a manager is a manager is a manager, why not have the guy who will generate the least controversy?

Keefe: The Angels haven’t been in the playoffs since 2009 when they lost to the Yankees in the ALCS. Since then, they have 80-82, 86-76, 89-73 and 78-84. Five years it felt like the Angels would just keep on making the playoffs and winning the AL West forever before the Rangers and then A’s became relevant again. Despite their free-agent signings and spending, the Angels haven’t been able to rekindle the winning ways of the 2000s when they were the one team to have a winning record against the Yankees and knocked them out of the playoffs in 2002 and 2005. But then it seems like there was a shift in power between the Yankees and Angels after the 2009 ALCS.

What has made the Angels so hard for the Yankees to beat? After years of beating up on both the Joe Torre and Joe Girardi Yankees, and two postseason series wins, are Angels fans still confident when they play the Yankees?

Gleason: 2009 was a big punch to our gut. Our nemesis has really been the Red Sox and we finally beat them in the playoffs after losing to them in 1986, 2004, 2007 and 2008 and then the Yankees knocked us down in the 2009 ALCS, so the decade where we dominated the Yankees is over, psychologically, for us. Maybe it left with Joe Torre. Don’t get me wrong, we always get up the hate for the Bronx Bombers and there is a lingering confidence that we can win in New York that other tams and their fans might not have (you don’t intimidate us), but we carried much more swagger last decade than this one.

Keefe: When you look at the Angels lineup and the front-end of their rotation, you can’t help but think that this should be a playoff team. But after these recent postseason-less seasons for the Angels, what have your expectations become for the Angels?

Gleason: The mob is ready with pre-lit torches. Attendance and season ticket sales have taken a huge hit. I expect the team to make the playoffs this year and I am way more confident in them than I have been in recent years, but as Pee Wee Herman said, “There is always a big but …” there is no depth and there is no chance of a big trade/acquisition due to the luxury tax concerns. So a few bumps and bruises and I can put my hope for October on the shelf for 2014. This organization will have to earn back the buzz that fans had for them. There is no buzz these days. Its like O’Douls in Anaheim: no buzz.

Blogs • Email Exchanges • Yankees

Apr 22, 2014

Jacoby Ellsbury Doesn’t Get the Johnny Damon Treatment

It’s the first Yankees-Red Sox series of the season in Boston and the first time Jacoby Ellsbury will play in Fenway Park for another team and that means it’s time for an email exchange with Mike Hurley.

After this week in Boston, the Yankees and Red Sox won’t meet again for two months and they won’t meet again in Boston until the first weekend in August. (Never change, Major League Baseball schedule, never change.) But this week in Boston is not only the first meeting between the two teams at Fenway Park this season, it’s the first time Jacoby Ellsbury will be in the third-base dugout at Fenway Park.

With Ellsbury making his Yankees debut in Boston and the teams playing a three-game series before a two-month break, you know what that means. An email exchange with Mike Hurley.

Keefe: It’s been only 12 days since we last talked and after this it will be over two months until the Yankees and Red Sox meet again. There’s nothing quite like seven Yankees-Red Sox games in April and then none for basically half the summer. It makes sense though, right? I mean it makes more sense than Major League Baseball’s replay/review/challenge system, doesn’t it?

Last week you sent me a series of videos showing how the transfer play is no longer being called in baseball the way it has been since the invention of the game. I laughed watching umpires and the umpires in the New York offices decide games on balls being dropped “during the transfer” but I wasn’t laughing anymore when the Yankees nearly lost on Sunday to the Rays because of a transfer call involving Brian Roberts at second base.

I was all for replay in baseball and I didn’t and still don’t care about the length of review time or extending games because of replays as long as the calls are made correctly. But that’s clearly not what’s happening right now with no one knowing what a catch in baseball is anymore, the umpires in New York not having the same views and angles as those watching at home and ancient baseball rules being changed overnight.

Hurley: Replay in baseball is utterly useless.

I was never strongly for or against it. I’ve always been able to live with a missed call on a bang-bang play, the same way you have to live with a bad strike call. But I also watched disasters like the Jim Joyce botching of Armando Galarraga’s perfect game or Phil Cuzzi blowing his only job of calling balls fair or foul in the 11th inning of a playoff game at Yankee Stadium, and mistakes like that were just so egregious that I supported a system that could easily correct those obvious screw-ups.

As it turns out, we got a system that neither fixes the obvious mistakes or fine-tunes the close plays. We just got a stupid, stupid, stupid system that has tried to change the sport for absolutely no reason.

The new emphasis on the transfer rule is not only nonsensical (a catch and a throw are two different actions; how a bobble on the throw negates a catch that has already been completed is beyond me) but also far more common than I think anyone anticipated it would be. It reminds me of the NHL’s crackdown on toes in the crease in the late ’90s, a rule that may be the worst in sports history. I remember the Bruins losing a playoff game because Tim Taylor’s toe was just barely touching the blue paint on the opposite side of Olaf Kolzig’s crease.

After that season and after the Brett Hull/Dominik Hasek controversy, the NHL came out and were like, “Oh, well, yeah, you see … that is a terrible rule and we will get rid of it. Because it’s stupid.”

If MLB doesn’t have the same sense as a league led by Gary Bettman, then baseball is in bigger trouble than I thought.

Keefe: I’m not sure that Bud Selig has more sense than Gary Bettman. We’re talking about a guy who allowed performance-enhancing drugs to revitalize his sport after a strike and then a decade later started to pretend that players who use performance-enhancing drugs are the worst people in the world, and he got the beat nerds to buy into it the way he got them to buy into the idea that having at least player a year hit 60 home runs (after two people had ever done it) was no big deal. He also still allows the All-Star Game — an exhibition game — to determine home-field advantage in the World Series after a six-month, 162-game daily grind. I like to think that the commissioners of the four leagues get together once a year and talk about their increased revenues and think about new ways to ruin their respective leagues while laughing at the expense of the fans. Then before they leave, they play credit card roulette to see which commissioner will have to impose the next lockout and Gary Bettman always loses.

In the last Yankees-Red Sox series, Dean Anna (I’m sure you’re aware by now that he is a real person) doubled and then when he slid into second base, he came off the base for a split second while the tag was still being applied to him. He was called safe on the field and then safe again after the umpires at the New York office apparently didn’t have the same views as those watching at home. I don’t think when expanded reply was instituted it was meant to make such ridiculous calls, but if it’s going to be used for those (and it shoudn’t be), how is it possible that fans watching at home have better information than the paid umpires and officials at the league’s headquarters? Real life?

Hurley: Yeah, precisely. We don’t need replay to break down every split-second of these plays. The Francisco Cervelli play at first base last Sunday night ended up being correctly made after a replay review, but we were all subjected to watching frame-by-frame breakdowns of the ball entering Mike Napoli’s glove, and we had to hear John Kruk blabber on about whether it’s a catch when the ball goes into the glove or when the glove is closed around the baseball. What are we really doing?

Replay should fix the aforementioned obvious mistakes, but on Friday night at Fenway, John Farrell challenged a Nick Markakis double, claiming the ball landed foul. Farrell believed this to be the case because the ball did in fact land foul. We all saw it on our televisions. There was a dirt mark where the ball landed in foul territory. It was a no-brainer.

Yet after review, the double stood. For some reason.

There is no point. It’s a disaster.

But not according to Selig, who said, “We’ve had really very little controversy overall” and “you’ll hear about the one or two controversies, but look at all the calls that have been overturned.”

The guy is an idiot.

The scenario you created got me thinking, I’d like to see a Celebrity Jeopardy! episode with Gary Bettman, Bud Selig and Kim Kardashian as the contestants. They would all obviously finish with negative money, and then Alex Trebek could spend the time normally reserved for Final Jeopardy to just berate them for being dopes.

Keefe: Speaking of “idiots,” let’s talk about Johnny Damon’s return to Fenway Park in 2006 because on Tuesday night, Jacoby Ellsbury will return to Fenway Park for the first time as a Yankee.

I was at Damon’s return and was actually surprised by the amount of cheers he received from Boston fans. He had been the face of the Red Sox’ culture change and the symbol of their change from losers to winners and there he was wearing a Yankees uniform and tipping his helmet to Red Sox fans before his first at-bat. Sure, there were people throwing fake money at him once he took his position in center field, but for the most part, Johnny got about as many cheers as anyone could get in his position.

When it comes to Ellsbury, I think he will receive a better ovation than Damon because he wasn’t as iconic of a figure in Boston, even if helped them win two World Series, and it felt like during his entire time with the Red Sox, everyone knew once he became a free agent that he would bolt for the highest bidder. People will boo on Tuesday night in the first inning just to boo and they will continue to for every Ellsbury at-bat for the rest of his career, but are Red Sox fans upset that he signed with the Yankees as a free agent?

Hurley: It’s a weird thing. I don’t think many people, aside from maybe the folks who think Fever Pitch is a good movie, are actually “upset” with him for going to the Yankees. I think if anyone knows Ellsbury, it’s those of us in Boston who have seen him come up and develop over the past seven years. And I don’t think anyone here thought Ellsbury would be worth the money he’d be getting on the free-agent market. And knowing he was going to the free-agent market, and knowing the Angels had already spent a billion dollars, how many realistic suitors were really in play for him?

So obviously, there was a good chance he’d be going to New York, and obviously, players on the Yankees get booed at Fenway Park. He’s going to get booed, and for a lot of people, just the sight of a former Red Sox player in a Yankees uniform is enough to boil up some rage. But in terms of people being really mad, I don’t think that’s the common feeling.

At the same time, the Red Sox leadoff situation is so dire this season, there might be some extra boos rained down that are coming from a place of frustration.

Keefe: I thought the Red Sox would survive fine without Ellsbury at the top of the lineup and they likely will once they sort it out, but I don’t think I realized how important he was to the top of their order and extending the lineup until now. Seeing just about everyone except for David Ortiz and Mike Napoli get a chance to hit leadoff for the Red Sox has shown how important Ellsbury was for them. John Farrell hasn’t been afraid to try anything and has even gone with Jonny Gomes in that spot and Jonny Gomes as a leadoff hitter in a lineup that wasn’t picked out of a hat is pretty comical.

Right now the Red Sox seem to be having the same problems the Yankees had last year with injuries and an inability to score runs. There were long stretches of time where I knew the Yankees would be lucky to score just two runs in a given game and that meant the pitching staff would have to be perfect to win. (Granted they had Vernon Wells and Lyle Overbay hitting in the heart of their order and not Ortiz and Napoli.)

It’s never good to have several hitters slumping at the same time, especially your best hitters, but that seems to be the Red Sox’ problem early this season.

Hurley: Yeah it’s pretty bizarre how a team that has averaged 860 runs per season since 2002 is on pace to score just 616 runs this season. They’re hitting .209 with RISP, which ranks 25th in MLB, just two points ahead of the Cubs, so that gives you a good indication of where they’re at.

Overall, they’re hitting just .238, which ranks 23rd. It’s largely the same roster as last year, save for A.J. Pierzynski taking Jarrod Saltalamacchia’s place (kind of a wash), Shane Victorino being injured and Daniel Nava looking like Neil Keefe if he was asked to play Major League Baseball. So it should all come around at some point.

I think Clay Buchholz is a much bigger problem. He took the mound on Marathon Monday and looked like he was throwing knuckleballs with a Wiffle Ball. He allowed five straight hits in the third and ended up leaving after allowing 6 runs in 2 1/3 innings. For as much time as he missed last year, he was a major reason why the Red Sox won 97 games. If they don’t have even that half-season of a contribution from him this year, they’re in serious trouble.

Keefe: I have never been a Clay Buchholz believer, even for as good as he has looked when he is healthy, mainly because he is never healthy. He’s going to be 30 in August and the most starts he has ever made in a season is 29, after that 28 and after that just 16. So I would say banking on just a half-season from him is a good bet since that is all the Red Sox are likely to get.

I’m headed to Boston for the series and when I looked at tickets, I was surprised at how cheap they are. In the past, I would be looking at spending at least $100 just to sit in the right-field grandstand, which are the worst seats in any stadium in the entire league. You might as well sit on your couch or in a bar somewhere and get 1,000 times the viewing experience than sit in a low-number section in Fenway. I thought that winning the World Series after a few disastrous seasons and the one-year Bobby Valentine era would bring Red Sox ticket prices back to what they were from 2003-2011, but that hasn’t happened. Maybe it’s because the Bruins’ Stanley Cup run just started or maybe it’s because the Red Sox aren’t what they were to the city of Boston a decade ago?

Either way, I can’t complain since I’m saving money. Maybe we’ll run into each other at Fenway this week and can finally settle these email exchange debates with our fists.

Hurley: You’ve been challenging me to a Lansdowne Street throwdown for years. Given how dormant the rivalry is right now, I don’t think it’s the best time to actually throw fists outside Fenway. If Ellsbury goes into second spikes up and takes out Dustin Pedroia, then maybe we can circle back and meet up outside Gate E.

Blogs • Email Exchanges • Yankees

Apr 15, 2014

Theo Epstein Back in the Bronx with Rebuilding Cubs

The Yankees and Cubs meet for the first of two short two-games series this year and that calls for an email exchange with Al Yellon of Bleed Cubbie Blue.

The last time the Yankees and Cubs met was August 2011, but that was at Wrigley Field. On Tuesday, the Yankees and Cubs meet for the first time ever in new Yankee Stadium (since their Stadium opening exhibition games didn’t count) for a two-game series, which will be the first of a pair of two-game series this season between the teams.

With the Yankees and Cubs playing for the first time in three years and the first time this year, I did an email exchange with Al Yellon of Bleed Cubbie Blue to talk about what has happened to the Cubs since their last postseason appearance in 2008, the job Theo Epstein has done since taking over before the 2012 season and how long Cubs fans expect the rebuilding process in Chicago to take.

Keefe: I have never been to Wrigley Field though I expect that to change this summer. I went by it for the first time in January when I was in Chicago for Rangers-Blackhawks and tried to envision what it would be like to watch a game inside there and soon enough I will have that chance. It’s hard not to think of the heartache and the devastation that has taken place there and for the teams that have played there and the fans that have watched games there. And the most recent of that heartache and devastating came five-plus years ago.

The last time the Cubs were in the playoffs in 2008, many people predicted them to go to the World Series and even win it all after winning 97 games in the regular season. But then they ran into the wild-card Dodgers and three games later, the Cubs’ season was over. A year after getting swept by the Diamondbacks, they were swept by the Dodgers and they haven’t been back to the playoffs since.

I know it’s not exactly the most positive note to start his email exchange by bringing up the Cubs’ postseason failures of 2007 and 2008 or their playoff drought since, but I thought it was a good place to start to set the tone of where your Cubs have been recently and where they are doing.

Going into the 2008 postseason, how confident were you as a Cubs fan (I’m guessing as confident as a Cubs fan can be) coming off that regular season? Did you think the team was built to make annual October appearances or was there a sense of what would eventually come?

Yellon: This is a question few Cubs fans care to revisit. More than five years gone, it feels as if 2008 was another lifetime. Ownership and management have completely changed since then, and it’s almost as if we’re now rooting for an expansion team.

Oh, 2008. Best regular season I’ve seen in my lifetime, probably the best Cubs regular season since the 1930s. No Cubs fan anticipated a three-game sweep. 20/20 hindsight says that team was built to “win now,” in the vernacular, because it made the playoffs mostly on the strength of veteran hitting.

Cubs fans didn’t look toward “annual October appearances” at that time. We took what came and felt grateful for it — in some ways, always anticipating something going wrong. There’s an old joke: Optimists think the glass is half full. Pessimists think the glass is half empty. Cubs fans ask, “When’s the glass going to get knocked over and spill?”

Keefe: I have always felt that Theo Epstein got too much credit in Boston. Yes, he pulled off a miracle during Thanksgiving dinner in 2003 at Curt Schilling’s house to get the right-hander to sign with the Red Sox and he had the balls to trade the face of the franchise in Nomar Garciaparra in the middle of the 2004 season. But he also won the 2004 World Series thanks to a team whose key players were from prior management. And then when the Red Sox won again in 2007, it was because Josh Beckett saved them in the ALCS and because of Mike Lowell in the World Series, as he won MVP against the Rockies. Those two players were traded to the Red Sox from the Marlins during Epstein’s time away from the team, and he admitted then he wouldn’t have made that deal. No deal, no World Series that year.

I loved what Theo did by signing bad deal after bad deal to put the Red Sox in a bind through the 2012 season before he left Boston for Chicago and before Ben Cherington cleaned up his mess. But I couldn’t believe how ecstatic Cubs fans seemed to be with the news he was headed for Wrigley as if they had just landed A-Rod in a pre-2004 trade.

What were your feelings about the decisions to bring Theo to Chicago?

Yellon At the time Theo was hired, I was all for it. It was clear the team’s direction wasn’t working and they needed a change.

In the two-plus years (three offseasons, now) that Theo & Co. have been in charge, they have produced what is seen by many analysts as the top farm system in the major leagues, stockpiling draft picks and acquiring prospects by trade.

Many think this is great, and that the Cubs will magically burst into contention starting in 2015 with prospects such as Javier Baez, Kris Bryant, Albert Almora and Jorge Soler (known as the “Core Four”). In general, it doesn’t work that way; those four might become All-Stars, but it could take time. It could be 2018 or later before the Cubs return to contention; they are hamstrung by poor TV deals and some other financial constraints put on the team as a condition of the sale to the Ricketts family, that might not get them the big money they need to compete with the likes of the Dodgers and Yankees until after 2019.

Some Cubs fans are OK with this, thinking that the “waves of talent” Theo is supposedly producing will provide perennial contention. Others are starting to get a bit impatient with the 95-plus loss seasons that are piling up; 2014 is likely going to be another such season.

Keefe: There aren’t many non-Yankees I like, but I like Starlin Castro. Now I don’t watch him every day like you, and I haven’t followed his career as closely as you, but his first few seasons are puzzling when you look just at the stats.

The last time the Yankees and Cubs played (and the only time Castro has played against the Yankees) was June 17-19, 2011. In those three games, Castro went 5-for-13 with two doubles and three runs, but it felt like he couldn’t be stopped. He went on to hit .307/.341/.432 and led the league in hits that year in what was his second season. But since then, his average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage have declined each season. However, early on this year, Castro looks to be back on track and he just turned 24 on March 24.

I know he’s still very young, but what has kept Castro from building off his 2010 and 2011 seasons over the last two years?

Yellon: To be quite blunt, Castro’s struggles can almost completely be attributed to the manager and coaching staff that was dismissed at the end of 2013. Dale Sveum (a former hitting coach) and his staff had Castro change his approach. Castro came to the big leagues as (mostly) a hacker — note the .341 OBP with the .307 BA, not many walks in there — and Castro got all messed up, trying to please the coaches, taking too many pitches and not getting good swings at the pitches he did offer at.

There were also some personal issues in his life (a sexual assault charge that proved baseless, among other things) that could have affected his play on the field.

New manager Rick Renteria and batting coach Bill Mueller have let Castro be Castro, to go back to the style that got him to the big leagues and have two All-Star seasons. He’s done quite well so far in 2014 despite missing almost all of spring training with a hamstring injury. He looks more confident at the plate and has also played better in the field (it’s always been noted that Castro has had some issues with concentration in the field, but this appears to no longer be a problem).

As you note, he’s just 24. He’s had very good years in the past and now it looks like he could be in line for a real breakout year.

Keefe: It was always rough to watch Carlos Marmol try to get through games as the Cubs closer (especially if you had a wager on them), but when he was on and could locate, his pitches were electrifying and unhittable. Now it seems like the Cubs have Carlos Marmol 2.0 in Jose Veras.

I couldn’t wait for the Yankees to part ways with Jose Veras, which they did in June 2009, and had they not, the Yankees probably would be in their 14th year of a World Series drought if he had gotten into playoff games that year. Veras defined inconsistent during his time with the Yankees and when I knew he would be an important part of the Tigers’ bullpen in the ALCS last October, I feared that the Red Sox would reach the World Series and eventually win it.

The numbers haven’t been pretty for Veras through four appearances this season, so I’m not sure if the right thing to ask is what are your feelings on him, so I’ll go with how long will the Jose Veras experiment work with the Cubs?

Yellon: I think the Veras experiment might be over already; he’s been replaced as closer (for now), and if his replacement (whoever it is; the dreaded “committee” is now closing) does well, what’s the point of giving him the closing job back?

Well, here’s the point. Veras was signed as a flip candidate; he has very little “proven closer” experience (half of 2013 is about it), and there isn’t much point to having a 33-year-old closer on a bad team unless he can bring a prospect or two in return. So I’d expect the Cubs to try it again.

Keefe: The year before Theo arrived the Cubs were 71-91. In his first year running the team, they finished 61-101 and then went 66-96 last season. This year they are off to a 4-8 start.

They are still considered to be in rebuilding mode, but when you look around the league at other teams who were also rebuilding, they have seemed to do it much quicker than it’s taken the Cubs, who haven’t reached the playoffs since 2008 and haven’t won a playoff game since Game 4 of the 2003 NLCS.

What are your expectations for this season and how long will the rebuilding plan take?

Yellon: Personally, I have no expectations for this season. This Cubs team was clearly not built to contend, especially in the NL Central where it appears we now have four contending teams. The Cubs’ two “big” offseason signings — Veras and Jason Hammel — were clearly made to flip them for prospects, not to provide any victories. The Cubs will likely lose 95 games again, even if they play well through July 31; trades after that (which could include Jeff Samardzija) could produce another 18-42 or 17-40 August and September (those are the actual records from those months in 2012 and 2013, respectively).

I don’t expect the Cubs to have any real serious contending year until 2018… at least.

But hey, we’re celebrating the 100th anniversary of Wrigley Field this year. There will be some cool giveaways. As Cubs fans, we better enjoy that, because it’s about all we’ve got.