Blogs – Page 190 – Keefe To The City

Nov 6, 2014

NFL Week 10 Picks

I’m thinking of going to a comedy show in New York on Sunday night, which would force me to miss the end of the Giants-Seahawks game. So I have to make the decision between moving

I’m thinking of going to a comedy show in New York on Sunday night, which would force me to miss the end of the Giants-Seahawks game. So I have to make the decision between moving from the couch on a football Sunday, going out, paying for a round-trip cab, admission to the show and food and drinks or staying on the couch and finish watching a three-hour free comedy show live from Seattle on FOX. As much of a joke the Giants-Seahawks game will likely and how many laughs it should produce for non-Giants fans, I think it’s a better idea to get out out of the apartment just as the Seahawks backups finish off the Giants as the Giants finally start to throw the ball for the majority of their plays once the game is out of reach.

Speaking of comedy, this week on his Monday Morning Podcast, Bill Burr said, “If you bet on football this year, you’re out of your mind. At this point you should just cut your losses and go home.” I wish I could, Bill. I wish I could go. But there are still eight weeks of the regular season to pick and then the playoffs.

(Home team in caps)

CINCINNATI -6.5 over Cleveland
The Bengals have done their transformation to become the AFC Saints in that the Paul Brown Stadium Bengals are a much different team than the Outside the Paul Brown Stadium Bengals are. The Bengals are 4-0-1 at home this year and 1-2 on the road after going 8-0 at home and 3-5 on the road last year. This season, the Bengals’ average home score is a 30.8-20.2 win and their average road score is a 28.7-13.3 loss. That’s good news if the Bengals can win the NFC North and play their first playoff game at home. The problem is the Bengals is five or their last seven games are on the road.

Miami +3 over DETROIT
It’s never a good idea to buy into the Miami Dolphins. You would be better off buying into a start-up newspaper in 2014 than the Dolphins given their history of strong starts and late-season collapses, but the problem with this game is the Lions are the Dolphins of the NFC. So I can either buy into the start-up newspaper in 2014 (Dolphins) or pay for an AOL account in 2014 (Lions). That’s why I’m taking the points.

Buffalo +2.5 over KANSAS CITY
If the Giants aren’t going to do anything this year, which they’re not, then I might as well be an honorary Bills fan for the rest of the season. I can’t get behind the Browns because them winning means Johnny Manziel’s career will only be delayed longer and I can’t get behind the Chiefs because of Alex Smith even though it would make me happy to know that the city of Philadelphia and Eagles fans would have to watch Andy Reid win the Super Bowl. Aside from the Bills, those are the other long-suffering franchises that look like postseason contenders that I don’t have any direct hatred against, but how could I not pull for the Bills and Kyle “David Grohl” Orton to go on a run with the Bills?

San Francisco +5 over NEW ORLEANS
The Saints are going to win this game. That’s a fact. How do I know this? Let me say it again:

The Saints’ last home loss with Sean Payton as head coach came in Week 17 in 2010 when they had nothing to play for. Including the playoffs, with Payton as head coach, the Saints have won all of their home games since that loss and here are their margins of victory in those games: 19, 6, 11, 25, 18, 3, 32, 18, 21, 24, 6, 17, 28, 29, 14, 25, 11, 55, 7 and 17.

BALTIMORE -10 over Tennessee
I have done everything I can to continuously pick against the Ravens, but there are times when you have to see the difference between right and wrong and smart and dumb. And taking Tennessee, even to cover a double-digit spread, is dumb though I’m sure every sharp in Vegas would disagree given the state of the NFL.

Pittsburgh -6.5 over NEW YORK JETS
The Jets have lost eight straight games. They have fans wasting money on planes to fly over practice and promote John Idzik’s firing while other fans are wasting their money to use a billboard outside MetLife to promote the same cause. Michael Vick, who clearly wants no part of actually playing football anymore and would rather just hang out on the sidelines and collect a paycheck (who can blame him?) is starting over the most recent Jets franchise quarterback. And their head coach continues to say he sees good things each week even though the team’s only win came in Week 1 over the still-winless Raiders.

The Steelers were 3-3 and coming off a 21-point loss to the Browns before winning three straight games and saving their season and putting themselves in prime position to return to the playoffs. They have scored 94 points in the last two weeks against two contenders in the Colts and Ravens and Ben Roethlisberger threw for 862 yards and 12 touchdowns without an interception in those two games. And they have possibly the best receiver in the league in Antonio Brown ready to face the worst secondary imaginable.

So what does all of this mean? It means that this game will likely be decided by a field goal because the NFL is insane. But it also means it’s no time to be backing the Jets and asking them to cover anything less than a touchdown.

Tampa Bay +2 over ATLANTA
Somewhere someone who isn’t a Buccaneers fan or a Falcons fan is going to bet on this game and watch it in its entirety. Think about that.

Denver -12.5 over OAKLAND
I don’t want to say Peyton Manning is a fraud, so I will let other people say it for me. But the best regular-season quarterback in history went into Gillette Stadium and got embarrassed once again last week. Sure, he put up 429 yards and got his numbers in before it was over, but his team lost by 22 points in a game that could be the difference in a trip to the Super Bowl and an AFC Championship Game loss because of home-field advantage. I picked the Broncos last week because I didn’t want to back the Patriots even though I envisioned the game that played out playing out because it has so many times Peyton has gone to New England. Let’s hope that performance doesn’t mean a Super Bowl appearance for the Patriots because then I’m done with Peyton.

ARIZONA -7.5 over St. Louis
The Arizona Cardinals are the best team in football.

The Arizona Cardinals are the best team in football?

I wrote that sentence out with both a period and a question mark because after I wrote it the first time, I read it back to myself like Ron Burgundy reading a line on the prompter incorrectly because of a misplaced question mark at the end of it. Are the Cardinals the best team in football? Their record says they are at 7-1, leading the NFC West that was supposed to be for Seattle or San Francisco to win. I’m happy for the Cardinals after missing the playoffs last year despite a 10-win season while the Packers played a first-round home game at 8-7-1 for winning the NFC North, but I’m not sure a team with Carson Palmer as their quarterback can ever be considered the best team in the league at any time even if their record says they are.

New York Giants +9.5 over SEATTLE
The Giants’ offense currently consists of a first-round pick wide receiver who has played four career games, two wide receivers who can’t catch, a tight end who played quarterback in college, a tight end who was out of football in 2013, a rookie running back and a running back who thought his NFL career was over a little over a year ago. The absolute worst place for a team with that offensive personnel to go is Seattle, so if you’re thinking of sitting back at 4:25 on Sunday and watching the Giants, you might want to make other plans for around 5:00. I think I’m going to.

GREEN BAY -7.5 over Chicago
The last time the Bears won in Green Bay was Oct. 7, 2007 in Week 5. It was Brian Griese playing for a benched Rex Grossman against Brett Favre. The Bears have cost me picks and actual money so many times this season that I will be pulling for a Packers blowout on Sunday night as if it were the Giants playing in the Super Bowl.

Carolina +6 over PHILADELPHIA
The Panthers aren’t good. But you’re asking me to pick Mark Sanchez to win a game he starts by a touchdown.

Last Week: 4-9-0
Season: 63-70-1

Blogs • Yankees

Nov 5, 2014

The El Duque Documentary

El Duque was always my favorite Yankees pitcher. His first start for the Yankees came on June 3, 1998 when I was 11 years old and at the end of sixth grade. His high leg

El Duque was always my favorite Yankees pitcher. His first start for the Yankees came on June 3, 1998 when I was 11 years old and at the end of sixth grade. His high leg kick, the way he changed speeds and the way he pitched in big games helped mold me into the fan I am today.

When I heard there would be an ESPN 30 for 30 titled Brothers in Exile on El Duque and his brother Livan Hernandez, I treated it with the hype and anticipation I have to see Dumber and Dumber To. And because it was a pleasant trip down memory lane to when the Yankees won every year coming off this miserable season, I decided to write down my thoughts as I watched how El Duque got to the Yankee Stadium mound on June 3, 1998.

– The El Duque leap over the base line is an every-fifth-day moment I miss. His half-jog/half-spring to the mound and back to the dugout each inning as if he couldn’t wait to get out there and pitch and get the next inning moving so he could get back out there again is also missed.

– Since I don’t speak Spanish and a lot of the documentary is in Spanish with subtitles, it makes it hard to write down everything. And with Time Warner Cable’s DVR being as reliable as CC Sabathia will be in 2015, there’s a lot of starting and stopping and fast forwarding and rewinding going on when El Duque speaks. This makes me realize how poor of a decision it was to have him in the booth this season on YES where he was asked question after question by Michael Kay, who had no sense of how difficult it was for El Duque to understand English and produce an English answer, even as Paul O’Neill kept bailing him out. I wouldn’t expect anything better from Michael Kay as the lead of a broadcast team.

– I wonder if El Duque still has the No. 40 Yankees jersey someone in Cuba gave him that he wore all the time. Seeing that put a cherry on top of his Yankees career as did him saying, “I was a Yankees fan and that’s the team I wanted to play for.”

– Brian Cashman missed on Hideki Irabu and if Gordon Blakeley hadn’t convinced him that El Duque was worth signing, the Yankees probably don’t win the 1998 World Series and who knows about the 1999 and 2000 World Series. Thank you, Gordon Blakley and sorry to see you go to Atlanta this offseason.

– El Duque getting $6.6 million as a stud international free agent has to be the best bargain of all time when you consider what the Yankees got in return on their investment. Four years after El Duque’s deal, Jose Contreras got a four-year, $32 million deal from the Yankees. Nine years after El Duque’s deal, Kei Igawa got a five-year, $20 million deal from the Yankees. Masahiro Tanaka made $22 million in 2014 and will again in 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020.

– On the day of El Duque’s MLB debut on June 3, 1998 at Yankee Stadium, they show his locker in the clubhouse and whose locker and nameplate is right next to his? Homer Bush! Aside from having no power (11 home runs in 1,377 career plate appearances), Bush did hit .348/.389/.416 in 64 games for the Yankees over three seasons and did contribute two stolen bases in the 1998 playoffs.

– Joe Torre said, “I was a little skeptical because I didn’t know what kind of command he had” going into that debut and El Duque posted the following line: 7 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 2 BB, 7 K, 1 HR. After the performance, Torre said, “He could pretty much put the ball wherever he wanted to.”

– It brings back memories to see the Yankees on MSG rather than YES and Al Trautwig doing the pregame and postgame shows and Ken Singleton and Jim Kaat alone in the booth. Can we go back to a Michael Kay-less booth? Give the lead play-by-play to Singleton and rotate the others in. Please?

– Bill Madden questioning whether El Duque would be able to handle the pressure of pitching in New York and in the postseason after El Duque had been harassed by the Cuban government, put his life on the line by defecting the country, ended up on an island for four days with no sign of being rescued and then needing a Hail Mary from agent Joe Cubas to work out to be given freedom says a lot about Bill Madden.

I believe what made El Duque the ultimate postseason pitcher was that the idea of pitching in the playoffs was a joke to him when it came to pressure and an insult to the word “pressure”. He could have easily lost his life trying to leave Cuba and if he had been caught, his life would have been over anyway as he would have spent the rest of it in jail. He sacrificed the chance of never seeing his children and family ever again and left his entire life behind him to come to the United States. I’m pretty sure facing Manny Ramirez and Jim Thome in a baseball game didn’t exactly faze him.

– Brian Cashman refers to the Indians as the odds-on favorite in the 1998 ALCS with a 2-1 series lead. That’s clearly Cashman just downplaying the situation as he does with every player or game considering the Yankees went 114-48 and the Indians went 89-73. We don’t need to downplay everything, Cashman. I’m sure if the Yankees were to trade for Mike Trout today, Cashman would say, “We’re getting an average defender who can hit for contact with a little bit of power, but his ceiling isn’t that high.”

– I remember reading about Joe Torre saying how calm El Duque was on the morning of Game 4 knowing that a loss would likely lead to the end of the Yankees’ season and I was able to find a quote from Torre referencing that day.

“I saw El Duque at a buffet luncheon at the hotel, and he was passing out plates of food to people as if he was one of the waiters. He seemed pretty relaxed to me.”

Apparently El Duque was relaxed because here is his line from the Game 4 start: 7 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 6 K.

That ALCS Game 4 start helped continue the late-90s Yankees dynasty as the Yankees would win three straight games in the series to advance to the World Series (and win four straight there). Had El Duque not done what he did in Cleveland, the Yankees trail 3-1 in the series and are likely one championship less and that 114-win regular season is remembered much differently.

– El Duque made 14 playoff starts from the Yankees from 1998-2002 and 2004 and went 9-2 including an 8-0 start to that record. Here is his line from those 14 starts: 90.1 IP, 70 H, 30 R, 28 ER, 51 BB, 93 K, 8 HR, 2.99 ERA, 1.340 WHIP.

He also made three relief appearances from the Yankees (one in Game 5 of the 2000 ALDS and two in the 2002 ALDS). Here is his line in relief (he took the loss in Game 3 of the 2001 ALCS): 6.2 IP, 6 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 0 BB, 8 K, 2 HR, 2.70 ERA, 0.890 WHIP.

– It was fitting that El Duque started and won the clinching game of the World Series a year after his brother helped the Marlins to the World Series while El Duque was still in Cuba listening to the Marlins win over the Indians on a radio. His line from Game 4: 7 IP, 6 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 3 BB, 7 K.

– Ricky Ledee gets a hit in the footage of Game 4 of the World Series and Joe Buck says, “There’s another hit for Ledee.” Ledee went 6-for-10 with three doubles and four RBIs in the series. I miss the days of role players on the Yankees getting big hits and overachieving and never have I missed them more than after a year of Brian Roberts, Kelly Johnson and Stephen Drew.

– The documentary doesn’t show any El Duque highlights from after 1998, but I will always remember how fun he was to watch pitch in 2004, going 8-2 with a 3.30 ERA in his return. (He could have had more than eight wins, but got a no-decision in a seven-inning shutout, 10-strikeout game and another no-decision in a six-inning, two-run game.) He started Game 4 of the ALCS and would have earned the series-clinching win if not for some ninth-inning comeback that I vaguely remember happening.

– The following fall in 2005, I was in Boston at college on a Friday (Oct. 7) waiting to go home for Columbus Day Weekend and go to Game 4 of the Yankees-Angels ALDS. I was watching Game 3 of the Red Sox-White Sox ALDS. The White Sox led the series 2-0 and in the bottom of the sixth, the Red Sox trailed 4-3 with the bases loaded and no outs after Damaso Marte couldn’t retire any of the three hitters he faced (single, walk, walk). El Duque came in to relieve Marte. He got Jason Varitek to pop out in foul territory. Then he got Tony Graffanino to pop out to short. And then in a full count against Johnny Damon, he struck him out swinging on the seventh pitch of the at-bat. El Duque returned in the seventh to pitch a 1-2-3 inning with two strikeouts and came back out for the eighth and pitched around a two-out single.

El Duque went into the worst kind of jam there is against the defending champions and . It brought a smile to my face, not only because he ended the Red Sox’ season, but because he was doing what he had always done: pitched his best when it mattered the most. He was just doing it for another team even though he should have only ever done it for the Yankees.

Blogs • Giants • NFL

Oct 30, 2014

NFL Week 9 Picks

I can’t believe we are in Week 9 of the season. Let’s recap the first eight weeks. Week 1: 8-8-0 Week 2: 4-12-0 Week 3: 9-7-0 Week 4: 6-6-1 Week 5: 10-5-0 Week 6: 6-9-0

I can’t believe we are in Week 9 of the season. Let’s recap the first eight weeks.

Week 1: 8-8-0
Week 2: 4-12-0
Week 3: 9-7-0
Week 4: 6-6-1
Week 5: 10-5-0
Week 6: 6-9-0
Week 7: 8-7-0
Week 8: 8-7-0

That’s four winning weeks, two losing weeks and two .500 weeks. The only problem is that one 4-12-0 losing week in Week 2 has been too deep of a hole to climb out of so far. Thankfully, there are still nine regular-season weeks and four weeks of playoffs to pick.

With a busy week and some travel, I decided to use lines I previously wrote this season to help pick week’s game. I consider it the equivalent of Mark Teixeira needing a day off because his legs are tired from being on base or Mark Teixeira not playing because of light-headedness or Mark Teixeira not playing because of his rib cage or Mark Teixeira not playing not playing because he hurt his pinky sliding into home. If only how we are paid for our services could be equivalent.

(Home team in caps)

CAROLINA +2.5 over New Orleans
When you take the Saints out of the Superdome, they lose.

CLEVELAND -7 over Tampa Bay
The Tampa Bay bandwagon has been pulled out of service like the New York subway cars with bed bugs.

Arizona -1 over DALLAS
With just two teams between the Giants, Cowboys and Eagles going to the postseason this year, if the Giants are going to make it, they are going to need the Cowboys to start being on the other end of close games.

HOUSTON +2.5 over Philadelphia
Is there any doubt that the Week 17 Giants-Eagles game will decided a playoff spot in the NFC? OK, maybe that sentence would have been better suited to be written in 2008 or 2009 or 2010, but if I’m going to keep the Giants’ playoff hopes alive that means they are going to need the Eagles to start losing.

KANSAS CITY -9.5 over New York Jets
The Jets are currently tied with the Jaguars for the second-worst record in the league and they still have Buffalo twice, Miami twice, New England, Kansas City, Pittsburgh, Minnesota and Tennessee on the schedule. I’m thinking the Jets finish at 4-12.

CINCINNATI -10.5 over Jacksonville
The Bengals are becoming the AFC Saints and Paul Brown Stadium is becoming the Superdome.

San Diego +1.5 over MIAMI
I want to believe in the Dolphins because a good Dolphins team means a better chance the Patriots or Jets don’t win the AFC East.

MINNESOTA +1 over Washington
If the Vikings had entered the season with Bridgewater as their starter and utilized Cordarrelle Patterson better through the first seven weeks and Adrian Peterson hadn’t put his life in its current position then who knows where the Vikings might be with their offensive weapons and their strong defense?

SAN FRANCISCO -10 over St. Louis
I just hope the Rams aren’t saving their NFC East wins for when they play the Giants in Week 16, which would totally eff up the Giants’ postseason chances and end up being the icing on the cake in the latest Tom Coughlin era second-half collapse.

Denver -3.5 over NEW ENGLAND
Peyton Manning lives for these games. (That was the best I could find even though Peyton doesn’t play well in these games since I haven’t said anything good about New England this season.)

SEATTLE -13.5 over Oakland
The road team on Thursday Night Football has the worst disadvantage of any team in the league other than the Raiders in any game they play.

PITTSBURGH -1.5 over Baltimore
So why am I picking them? Because that’s how badly I want the Ravens to lose.

NEW YORK GIANTS +3.5 over Indianapolis
This is for the season.

Last Week: 8-7-0
Season: 59-61-1

Blogs • Giants

Oct 23, 2014

NFL Week 8 Picks

The Giants desperately needed a bye this week to get healthy and get things in order before starting a crucial, season-deciding four-game stretch against the Colts, 49ers, Seahawks and Cowboys. And I desperately needed a

The Giants desperately needed a bye this week to get healthy and get things in order before starting a crucial, season-deciding four-game stretch against the Colts, 49ers, Seahawks and Cowboys. And I desperately needed a bye week from the Giants because I just don’t know if I could handle watching them this Sunday after what I went through watching last Sunday’s performance in Dallas.

No Giants this week means no worrying about losing a game they can’t afford to lose or turning in a lackluster effort with the season on the line. I can just focus on the 30 teams and 15 games in Week 8 with a clear head and finish what is nearly the first half of the picks regular season on a winning note.

(Home team in caps)

DENVER -9 over San Diego
The road team on Thursday Night Football has the worst disadvantage of any team in the league other than the Raiders in any game they play. After watching three of the six Thursday games from Weeks 2 to 7 result in blowout wins for the home team, you would think things couldn’t get any worse for the traveling team in these poorly played games. But think again. The Chargers will have to travel from San Diego to Denver and play against Peyton Manning on a short week, which isn’t exactly a promising situation on a normal week let alone on three full days rest.

Detroit -3.5 over ATLANTA
Another London game except this one is actually exciting for American fans whose team isn’t playing in it because it will be played at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time on Sunday. I have always wondered what it would be like to permanently live on the West Coast where NFL Sundays start at 10 a.m. and Yankees games are on at 4:05 p.m. on weeknights and 10:05 a.m. on the weekends. This is a little taste of that lifestyle.

Minnesota +2.5 over TAMPA BAY
The 2014 Vikings have been dealt a bad hand. After an impressive 34-6 Week 1 win over the Rams, Adrian Peterson was suspended two days before hosting the Patriots, changing the team’s entire offensive game plan and resulting in a 30-7 loss. Matt Cassel was injured in Week 3 against the Saints and then in Week 4, after leading the Vikings to a win over the Falcons, Teddy Bridgewater was injured. Christian Ponder was forced to start against the Packers in the embarrassing 42-10 loss, which included the worst display of quarterback play I have ever seen. Bridgewater returned in Week 6, but threw three picks against the Lions in a loss and then in Week 7 with a 16-9 lead in Buffalo, the Vikings defense couldn’t stop the Bills on fourth-and-20 to end the game in what would be a last-second (there was actually one second left on the clock) loss.

If the Vikings had entered the season with Bridgewater as their starter and utilized Cordarrelle Patterson better through the first seven weeks and Adrian Peterson hadn’t put his life in its current position then who knows where the Vikings might be with their offensive weapons and their strong defense?

Chicago +6 over NEW ENGLAND
I want no part of the 2014 Bears and picking for them. The 2014 Bears have been as bad to me and my picks and my parlays and my teasers as any team has ever been. I actually think I hate the 2014 Bears as much as I hate the Eagles and Cowboys (of any year, not just 2014). But even though I now despise the Bears and want them out of the NFC playoff picture, I can’t bring myself to pick the Patriots against a team that has an abundance of offensive options, considering what their Week 7 performance against the Jets.

KANSAS CITY -7 over St. Louis
Last week’s win over the Seahawks was the Rams’ Super Bowl for the season and a road trip to Arrowhead against the Chiefs’ defense in front of a raucous Kansas City crowd and a fan base that could be looking at winning the World Series on the same day of this game if everything goes according to plan is a recipe for disaster for a team looking to build on a significant win.

Seattle -5.5 over CAROLINA
I thought I knew who the Seahawks were. I have never known who the Panthers are. Now I don’t know what either of these teams are or where they’re going. Usually when I’m faced with a situation like this I take the points, but this time I’m taking the defending champions with the notion that they will make up for their back-to-back losses.

NEW YORK JETS -3 over Buffalo
The six-week gauntlet for the Jets is over and they went 0-6 in it. Jets fans, like my friend Tim Duff, told me he wanted at least 3-4 out of the Jets over the first six games to keep them in the playoff hunt and they didn’t exactly meet his minimum requirements. The Jets are currently tied with the Jaguars for the second-worst record in the league (Oakland is 0-6) and they still have Buffalo twice, Miami twice, New England, Kansas City, Pittsburgh, Minnesota and Tennessee on the schedule. I’m thinking the Jets finish at 4-12.

Miami -6.5 over JACKSONVILLE
Somewhere someone who isn’t a Jaguars fan or a Dolphins fan or isn’t from Florida is going to bet on this game and watch it in its entirety. Think about that.

Houston -3.5 over TENNESSEE
Another one?

Somewhere someone who isn’t a Titans fan or a Texans fan is going to bet on this game and watch it in its entirety. Think about that.

(The Titans have become the go-to team for these.)

CINCINNATI +2 over Baltimore
Since the Bengals went to the New England with a chance to prove they are part of the AFC’s elite, they were run out of Gillette Stadium in a 43-17 loss, blew a late three-point lead to the Panthers at home in an eventual tie and then were shut out 27-0 at Indianapolis. The Bengals haven’t won a game in over a month and they are coming off a game in which they recorded eight first downs and had 135 total yards. So why am I picking them? Because that’s how badly I want the Ravens to lose.

ARIZONA -1.5 over Philadelphia
Is there any doubt that the Week 17 Giants-Eagles game will decide a playoff spot in the NFC? OK, maybe that sentence would have been better suited to be written in 2008 or 2009 or 2010, but if I’m going to keep the Giants’ playoff hopes alive that means they are going to need the Eagles to start losing. I can be a Carson Palmer fan for a Sunday. Let’s go Cardinals!

Indianapolis -4 over PITTSBURGH
I’m still not sure what the Texans were doing or trying to accomplish in the final minutes of the first half of Monday Night Football in Pittsburgh. The Texans led 13-0 and were going to receive the ball to start the second half, but instead of sitting on their lead, they blew it by allowing 21 points in the final 1:27 of the first half to the Steelers. The Texans gave the game away and it shouldn’t change the perception of the Steelers.

Oakland +7 over CLEVELAND
JOHN-NY FOOT-BALL! CLAP CLAP, CLAP CLAP CLAP!

After getting the Browns off to a 3-2 start and pulling off the historical comeback against the Titans, Brian Hoyer bought himself two bad games before the option of Johnny Manziel starting could be realized. Last week, Hoyer went 16-for-41 passing with 215 yards against the winless Jaguars for the first of those bad games. And now with the possibility of the Browns giving both the Jaguars and Raiders their first wins of the season in back-to-back weeks, Hoyer won’t survive back-to-back bad games against the worst two teams in the NFL and I’m rooting against him and for Manziel.

JOHN-NY FOOT-BALL! CLAP CLAP, CLAP CLAP CLAP!

NEW ORLEANS -1.5 over Green Bay
A home game for the Saints? Let me say it again:

The Saints’ last home loss with Sean Payton as head coach came in Week 17 in 2010 when they had nothing to play for. Including the playoffs, with Payton as head coach, the Saints have won all of their home games since that loss and here are their margins of victory in those games: 6, 11, 25, 18, 3, 32, 18, 21, 24, 6, 17, 28, 29, 14, 25, 11, 55, 7 and 17.

DALLAS -10 over Washington
This line is too high and I originally typed “Washington +10 over DALLAS” until I remembered that Colt McCoy is starting for the Redskins. Colt McCoy. That’s Colt McCoy. I’m going to take the Cowboys here and make Colt McCoy beat me. Go ahead, Colt, beat me.

Last Week: 8-7-0
Season: 51-54-1

Blogs • Giants

Oct 16, 2014

NFL Week 7 Picks

Two steps back, three steps forward, one step back. This picks season feels a lot like the Giants’ season once again.

I feel like the New York Giants once again: two steps back, three steps forward, one step back. After three straight weeks of .500 or better, Week 6 got the best of me thanks to a few decisions that left me open to be second-guessed as bad as Joe Girardi leaves himself open to be.

I made a lot of bad decisions in Week 6 and they all stemmed from me putting trust into clearly untrustworthy situations. Here are some things I trusted last week:

– I trusted Teddy Bridgewater making his second career start with an injured ankle that sidelined him 10 days earlier.

– I trusted Kyle Orton and the Bills against Tom “22-2 (now 23-2) against the Bills” Brady and the Patriots in a game with massive AFC East implications.

– I trusted the Bengals despite them saving the Patriots a week earlier and ruining all the Tom Brady trade rumors, which would have taken over Boston and their season.

– I trusted the one-win Buccaneers against the Ravens because of my hatred for the Ravens.

– I trusted the Falcons, who I said I would never trust again after they blew a 17-point lead in the 2012 NFC Championship Game and cost me a 10-to-1 Championship Weekend parlay.

– I trusted the Chargers over the Raiders even though I never take the Chargers to cover against the Raiders.

– I trusted the New York Football Giants in Philadelphia even though the game had a red flag hanging over it with the sudden expectations and hype being placed on the Giants and their new-and-improved offense.

I wish I could take all of those decisions back, but I can’t and I’m stuck with a 6-9 record from Week 6. But when Bill Belichick answered every question after Week 4 with “We’re on to Cincinnati” it worked out for the Patriots. So I’m not talking anymore about what happened in Week 6. I’m on to Week 7 and let’s hope me saying that is enough to not be sitting here next Thursday wondering why I made a decision like backing a quarterback who lost his job to Tim Tebow three years ago over a three-time Super Bowl champion.

(Home team in caps)

NEW YORK JETS +10 over New England Patriots
Yes, no more than 10 seconds ago I said I referenced backing a quarterback who once lost his job to Tim Tebow over a three-time Super Bowl champion and here I am backing a quarterback who lost his job two weeks ago to an unprepared and unmotivated Michael Vick over a three-time Super Bowl champion. Just typing that made me think, “What the eff am I doing?” but I have a weird feeling about this game even if that feeling will likely end up resulting in Jets-Chargers Part II.

INDIANAPOLIS -3.5 over Cincinnati
There are 64 starting quarterbacks and head coaches in the NFL. The Top 5 people I LEAST trust from those 64 in no specific order are Andy Dalton, Marvin Lewis, Geno Smith, Jim Caldwell and Mike Smith. It’s not good when one team has both their coach and quarterback in that five-person mix.

Tennessee +5.5 over WASHINGTON
Somewhere someone who isn’t a Titans fan or a Redskins fan is going to bet on this game and watch it in its entirety. Think about that.

CHICAGO -3.5 over Miami
Last week, I said:

I’m finally done with the Bears. So it would be appreciated if they would just get blown out at the Georgia Dome and not win and just remain out of my life.

So of course I picked the Falcons and of course the Bears won 27-13 to temporarily save their season and make me rescind my swearing off the Bears for the rest of the season. Here I am, one week after saying I was done picking them, here I am picking them. But that shouldn’t be too hard against a Dolphins team that had their heart ripped out and their 2014 season left on the field after giving up a touchdown with three seconds left against the Packers.

Cleveland -6 over JACKSONVILLE
The Jaguars are 0-6, but their margin of losing has dropped over the last weeks from 31 to 27 to 19 to 8 and then to 2 against the Titans in Week 6. If this pattern keeps up, the Jaguars are either going to lose by 1, tie or beat the Browns this week. However, with the Browns 3-2 and their two losses by a combined five points, I don’t think this is going to be a trap game for Cleveland coming off an impressive and season-saving blowout win over the Steelers. Sorry, Jacksonville, no win this week, but soon. I promise.

Seattle -7.5 over ST. LOUIS
I would like to take this time to thank the Seahawks for their loss to the Cowboys on Sunday. Sure, the loss improved the Cowboys to 5-1, extended their winning streak to five straight, gave them a two-game lead over the Giants and cost me a pick. But like Frank Underwood in House of Cards planting the seeds of an eventual long-term scheme well in advance, this Seahawks loss to the Cowboys was part of something much bigger down the road. Right now, the Cowboys are being called the best team in the league and there is so much hype surrounding them that it’s comparable to the attention they drew during the 2007 season. And like I have said, if the Giants didn’t exist then the Cowboys would be the worst team when playing with expectations. The Cowboys have those expectations now thanks to the Seahawks and it’s only a matter of time until the destruction starts because no Jerry Jones/Jason Garrett/Tony Romo team can be the best team in the NFL.

GREEN BAY -7 over Carolina
Aside from Week 1 when the Panthers played the Buccaneers, I have incorrectly picked every Panthers game, so to say I don’t have a feel for the Panthers would be an understatement. But since Aaron Rodgers told Green Bay to relax, the Packers are 3-0 and have scored 107 points after scoring 47 points in their first three games, so that’s makes me feel a little more comfortable about my pick for a Panthers game.

BALTIMORE -7 over Atlanta
I thought the theory about the Falcons being a home team and a home dome team like the Saints would hold up against the Bears, who couldn’t get out of their own way heading into Week 6, but that theory was undone when the Bears beat them by two touchdowns. Now I’m back to square one with the Falcons and back to the drawing board when it comes to figuring them out and I have nothing. I understand so little about the Falcons (other than that they are a bad team, which is all that really matters) that I’m picking the hated Ravens in a season in which I’m rooting even harder for them to lose than I normally do.

Minnesota +6 over BUFFALO
I said it was a mistake to back Teddy Bridgewater last week in just his second career start coming off an ankle injury, so why is it a good idea to back him this week in his third career start? Because the Bills are coming off their regular-season Super Bowl loss to the Patriots, which was a game that had the chance to shift the power in the AFC and give the Bills the upper hand in the division for the first time in the Brady-Belichick era. And the Bills were run out of their own building in that game, proving that they aren’t ready to the next step as a franchise and become a contender once again. The Bills and Buffalo were up for the Patriots and for a chance to change everything and I don’t think they will Ralph Wilson Stadium is going to have the same feel with the 2-4 Vikings in town.

DETROIT -3 over New Orleans
When you take the Saints out of the Superdome, they lose. The Saints are already 0-3 this year and while Calvin Johnson pulling a Mark Teixeira and saying, “I won’t play until I feel great,” isn’t exactly a strong sign of confidence for Lions fans for not only this week but the season, I can’t take the Saints on the road again. I just can’t.

SAN DIEGO -6 over Kansas City
The Chargers are 5-1, their only loss was a one-point loss (18-17) in Week 1 against in Arizona, they have won five straight and are 3-0 at home, winning by an average of 19.7 points. That’s good enough for me.

New York Giants +6.5 over DALLAS
This is for the season.

Arizona -6 over OAKLAND
The Jets did beat the Raiders in Week 1, but back then, Derek Carr had never played a game in the NFL. As of right now, Week 7, I’m not sure that the Jets are better than the Raiders. What does that have to do with the Cardinals looking to pick up an easy win in their quest to avenge their 10-win postseason-less season from last year? Nothing. I just thought it was worth noting that that the Raiders might be better than the Jets and that would mean the worst team in the NFL is likely either the Jets or the winless Jaguars. Unfortunately, the Jets and Jaguars don’t play each other this season.

DENVER -6.5 over San Francisco
The Broncos are playing in their second of three Sunday Night Football games this year this week. Peyton Manning is 38 years old and is in the third year of a five-year deal with the Broncos. Let’s say he plays out the remaining two years on his deal in 2015 and 2016, when he will be 40, and then retires (though I’m not sure he will retire then). Let’s say the Broncos have three Sunday Night Football games in 2014 and three in 2015. That means, including this week, Peyton has eight Sunday Night Football games left in his career and I’m sure Peyton is aware that the amount of Sunday night primetime games left in his career is dwindling. Peyton Manning lives for these games.

Houston +3.5 over PITTSBURGH
I have no idea how to measure the Steelers and I have no idea what they are as a team. They survived a 24-point comeback by the Browns, were blown out by the Ravens, blew out the Panthers, gave the Buccaneers their only win, barely got past the Jaguars and were routed by the Browns. I’m still laughing at anyone who predicted them to return to the playoffs this season, considering they didn’t improve in the offseason, and while a Ryan Fitzpatrick-led team isn’t exactly a team worth trusting, the Texans are the better option in what should be another Monday Night Football game not worth watching.

Last week: 6-9-0
Season: 43-47-1