Blogs – Page 188 – Keefe To The City

Sep 5, 2014

Giants-Lions Looks Lopsided

The Giants and Lions open the season against each on Monday Night Football and both teams are at a crossroads this year.

The New York Football Giants are back. The good news is that the Giants enter the season with no expectations at all. Well, no positive expectations. The only expectations the team has is that they might actually be worse than they were a year ago when they started the season 0-6 and finished 7-9. How is that good news? That’s good news because the Giants thrive when there aren’t any expectations attached to them. If they were being picked to go 12-4 and win the NFC East then I would worry about them. The bad news is that if the people who are saying the Giants could be looking at their worst season since 2004 are right then football season isn’t going to fun for me or any Giants fan.

With the Giants’ season kicking off on Monday night in Detroit, I did an email exchange with Sean Yuille of Pride of Detroit to talk about having Jim Caldwell as his team’s head coach, and what we can expect on Monday night.

Keefe: Last season, the Lions were 6-3 before losing six of their last seven games to finish 7-9 and miss out on the postseason, which led to the firing of Jim Schwartz. I had forgotten about Schwartz since last season and it wasn’t until the Giants’ Hall of Fame Game against the Bills in August when I saw him as the defensive coordinator for the Bills did it hit me that he is no longer with the Lions. And then I remembered that Jim Caldwell is now the head coach of the Lions. Jim Caldwell! The seemingly most lost head coach to ever put on a headset in the NFL, who at times looks confused as to why he is on the sidelines of an NFL game.

It seems like this core of Lions players are entering a crossroads season where they will either get back to the playoffs for the first time since 2011 or lead another head coach to be fired. The team might have the most talent in the entire league, but hasn’t been able to put it together and consistently win and now they are asking Caldwell to lead them in doing so.

I’m still in shock that Caldwell is coaching the Lions, but it doesn’t matter to me since they’re not my team. However, they are your team and Caldwell is your head coach. And while it was definitely time for Schwartz to go, are you on board with Caldwell?

Yuille: I am now. When he was first hired? Not so much. At the time, I had a lot of the same thoughts as you about Caldwell. He was a disappointing hire, especially after the team was seemingly spurned by Ken Whisenhunt, who ended up taking the Titans’ job instead. Generally speaking, the Caldwell hire was an uninspiring one, and the Lions’ overall coaching search was quite uninspiring as well.

Quickly, I warmed up to the hire once Caldwell outlined his vision for the Lions and put together his coaching staff. It obviously remains to be seen if this will all lead to success, but he brought in a lot of promising coordinators and position coaches, and unlike Jim Schwartz, he seems to actually be focused on fixing the Lions’ biggest weaknesses in order for them to take the next step.

Keefe: Last season in Week 1, I thought the Giants might have the most explosive offense in the league following their 31-point effort in Dallas, despite losing the game, with Eli Manning throwing for 450 yards, Victor Cruz having 118 receiving yards and Hakeem Nicks having 114. But then Eli decided to throw more interceptions than touchdowns, Cruz didn’t break 1,000 yards and Nicks didn’t find the end zone once all season.

When I look at the Lions’ offense and see Matthew Stafford, Calvin Johnson, Golden Tate and Reggie Bush, I have nightmares thinking about how the Giants are going to force the Lions to punt even a single time on Monday. There has been a lot of hype around the Giants’ secondary and how it could possibly be the best in the league, and in Week 1 it’s going to have to be to slow down the Lions’ receivers.

How excited are you to watch about the Lions’ offense?

Yuille: I’m both excited and nervous at the same time. On the one hand, it will be nice to see Golden Tate and Eric Ebron on the field in a regular-season game, and it will be just as nice to see Joe Lombardi unleash his new scheme as offensive coordinator of the Lions. He based his scheme on what he saw when he was Drew Brees’ quarterbacks coach in New Orleans, and the hope is that the Lions will become a more balanced and more efficient offense going forward.

At the same time, I’m nervous simply because we’ve been fooled before by the offense’s talent on paper. The Lions are quite strong at all of their offensive position groups, but all of that talent won’t mean anything if they can’t do simple things like take care of the ball, avoid stupid penalties and convert drives into points. The turnovers aspect is especially concerning considering that really led to the Lions’ downfall last year, and that’s an area where Matthew Stafford has to be much better.

Keefe: There are only so many “special” players in sports to watch and I’m fortunate to have grown up with Derek Jeter and Mariano Rivera as homegrown talent and watch their Hall of Fame and all-time great careers unfold on my team. In Detroit, you have Calvin Johnson, the best wide receiver in the world, who you have already been able to watch for seven years and will watch him for at least six more.

What’s it like to get to really watch and root for Johnson every Sunday as a real fan and not as a fantasy football fake fan?

Yuille: It’s quite amazing to see someone as talented as Megatron on a weekly basis. We’ve been quite fortunate in Detroit over the years to see a lot of special players, and even right now we get to watch Miguel Cabrera and Pavel Datsyuk, who are both considered among the very best at what they do. For the Lions, it’s tough to compare anybody to Barry Sanders from a talent standpoint, but Megatron is on track to be one of the very best in franchise history, and he’s an extremely likable person off the field as well.

Keefe: For a long time, the NFC East was the so-called toughest division in the league. But last year, the Eagles won the East at 10-6 the Cowboys finished 8-8, the Giants 7-9 and the Redskins 3-13. The East hasn’t sent two teams to the playoffs since 2009 (Philadelphia and Dallas) and this year, it very well could end up being the worst division in the league, which is saying a lot because the AFC South still exists.

The NFC West had consistently been the worst division in football when the NFC East was on top, but with three strong and two elite teams there, that’s no longer the case. But above the NFC West is the NFC North, where all four teams look to be good in 2014 and now that the Vikings have a franchise quarterback on their roster, the North could have four of the league’s top quarterbacks going at it for several years.

Are you worried about the enhanced competition in the NFC North and which teams scares you the most in the division?

Yuille: The NFC in general worries me because there are so many good teams. It’s possible that the Lions could go 10-6 this year and still miss the playoffs depending on how the standings shake out. And especially in the NFC North, it’s possible they could put together an excellent season and only finish third.

Within the division, the Packers are definitely the team that scares me the most. I know a lot of people are quite high on the Bears this year, but the Packers are still the team to beat. The Lions haven’t won a road game against them since 1991, and Aaron Rodgers may very well be the best quarterback in football. It’s tough to see the Lions making any real noise in the division unless they take care of business against Green Bay.

Keefe: The Giants and Lions played last year in Week 16 in what ended up being a Giants’ 23-20 overtime as they played out the string in a lost season. But that game did mean something for the Lions, who needed a win to stay alive in the NFC North playoff race and the home loss to the Giants was unexpected and the final straw for Schwartz.

Here in New York, no one believes in the 2014 Giants, and while that’s a good thing because the Giants as a franchise are always better when there aren’t any expectations for them, the reasons no one believes in them are frightening because of the amount of question marks they have. The Lions aren’t exactly the best season-opening option for the Giants and their long list of unknowns.

Monday could end up being a disaster for the Giants and they could get run out of Ford Field and I will have to spend the next week listening to how Eli Manning’s career is over and Tom Coughlin should be fired. There’s a good chance the Lions’ pass rush has its way with the Giants’ inexperienced and makeshift offensive line and the Giants’ offense continues to be as sloppy as it was in the preseason. But knowing the history of the Giants and Lions, neither team can ever be trusted to put together a complete effort or meet expectations and because of that, it’s hard to know how Monday’s game will play out.

What do you expect on Monday?

Yuille: I expect a Lions victory. Ford Field is going to be absolutely crazy with Monday Night Football in town, and Detroit in general is going to be quite amped up, especially with the Tigers and Royals battling for first place in the AL Central at Comerica Park on Monday afternoon. An energetic crowd doesn’t automatically lead to victories, of course, but between that and the way the Lions match up with the Giants, this should be a win for Detroit. I expect the Giants to keep it close for a few quarters, perhaps via some untimely turnovers, but I ultimately think the Lions will pull away for a 27-17 win.

Blogs • Giants

Sep 4, 2014

NFL Week 1 Picks

Last season, the Makeshift Yankees got me to September and got me to the Giants. Unfortunately, the Giants couldn’t even make it through September to get me to the Rangers by going winless through September and half of October. Yes, the Giants fought back to give me a meaningful game on the Sunday before Thanksgiving in Week 12, but they blew that game and blew a gift from the Football Gods, who gave them a chance to take over the NFC East lead and a chance at the playoffs despite starting the season 0-6.

This season, the Yankees got me to the Giants (barely) and are still somewhat going even if they need to go like 25-0 the rest of the way to make the playoffs. The Giants, though, might not get me to the Rangers again, judging by their preseason offense and all of the questions surrounding a team that seems to be headed in the wrong direction. But not even the thought of Eli throwing another 27 interceptions can get me down today because it’s the start of the football season.

The first day of football season means the first day of picks, doing longhand addition on the back of bills to create wild parlays, figuring out how to track four fantasy teams without getting the “Stop running this script?” message on a computer, freaking out over a suicide pool in the fourth quarter of the first week, searching for some overseas site that has every NFL game available to watch if you just answer some survey questions, drinking excessive amounts of beer and eating foods that contain little to no nutritional value.

Football is back in my life and so are the New York Football Giants.

When I last left off with the Giants, they won their season finale over the Redskins in front of one of the most embarrassing Week 17 home crowds the Giants have likely ever seen. But when I really left off with the Giants was when they were blowing that Week 12 game against the Cowboys, because after that, the final five weeks of the season were just a formality.

After the Giants won Super Bowl XLII, Plaxico Burress ruined what should have been the next NFL dynasty and the Giants lost their only playoff game in 2008. They missed the playoffs completely in 2009 and 2010 thanks to back-to-back second-half collapses before winning the Super Bowl in 2011. Now they have gone back-to-back years without a trip to the playoffs once again and all I can think is maybe there’s a pattern there.

Football is back and that means so are the weekly picks.

(Home team in caps)

Green Bay +6 over SEATTLE
The Seahawks are going to win on Thursday night because they don’t lose in Seattle and they certainly about to start losing at home on the same night they are raising a Super Bowl banner in their first home game since becoming champions. However, Aaron Rodgers is as healthy as he’s going to be for the next four months and that’s enough for the Packers to cover.

ATLANTA +3 over New Orleans
Here are the last five Saints-Falcons games in Atlanta:

2013 – Week 12: NO 17, ATL 13
2012 – Week 13: ATL 23, NO 13
2011 – Week 10: NO 26, ATL 23 OT
2010 – Week 9: NO 17, ATL 14
2009 – Week 14: NO 26, ATL 23

The Saints have won four of the last five games in Atlanta and all of their wins have been by four points or less. The only Falcons win in there came in a 13-3 season, which should have resulted in Super Bowl appearance if they didn’t blow a 17-point lead in the NFC Championship Game and cost me my 10-to-1 Falcons-Ravens parlay that Sunday. I know how different the Saints are outside of the Superdome, but the Georgia Dome is still a dome and you would think they would play at least near their Superdome abilities, but they were barely able to get by the miserable 2013 Falcons last year with a four-point win. I have been burned too many times by the Saints on the road in the past even if they have been successful of late in Atlanta, and I’m still not over their loss in New England last year.

Minnesota +3.5 over ST. LOUIS
I had to do a double take when I saw this line to make sure I wasn’t reading it backwards or that it hadn’t been posted wrong.

I’m petrified at the thought of picking against Shaun Hill because when he was on the 49ers he cost me a lot of picks. A LOT of picks. I don’t care that Hill is 34 years old and has only attempted 16 passes in the last three years. He could be 56 years old and coming out of a 20-year retirement and starting in this game and I wouldn’t feel comfortable. But it’s time to start collecting on my past losses against Hill and it starts this week.

Cleveland +7 over PITTSBURGH
I’m not sure who told a bigger lie on Wednesday: Wes Welker saying someone slipped something into his drink to produce his positive Molly test or Mike Pettine saying “We’re not going to have a quick hook” when it comes to Brian Hoyer. It’s hard to take Welker at his word when you consider that he looked like this at the Kentucky Derby and that Tom Brady laughed like this when asked if he saw Welker taking anything at the Derby. Brady’s laugh could have meant “Haha, yeah, I’m going to say I watched my suspended friend do drugs,” since that would go over real well for one of the faces of football and for every anti-drug Tom Brady fan on the planet. Or it could have meant “Haha, obviously I watched my friend take drugs because we were partying at the Kentucky Derby.” I think it meant both.

Brian Hoyer is virtually an unknown, having started just two NFL games, and Johnny Manziel is also an unknown having never played one second in the NFL. The difference is that Johnny Football is the new Tim Tebow if Tim Tebow had Manziel’s quarterback abilities. In Week 1 in 2011, it didn’t take Mile High long to start a Rudy-like chant asking for Tebow to play and three weeks later they got their wish when Tebow became the starter. Cleveland has had one winning season in the last 11 years and have made the playoffs once (2002) since returning to the NFL in 1999. It’s going to take a lot less and a lot less time for Browns fans to turn on Hoyer and call for Johnny Football and once those chants start, there’s no stopping them and certainly not a first-year head coach in a job he wasn’t the first choice for. The only reason Manziel isn’t starting is because it’s easier for Pettine to bench Hoyer than it is Manziel.

No one believes Welker and no one believes Pettine.

PHILADELPHIA -11 over Jacksonville
Here are Philadelphia’s last three season-opening opponents: Washington, Cleveland and St. Louis. Apparently things weren’t easy enough for the Eagles to get their seasons rolling with three straight 1-0 starts, so the NFL schedule makers gave them the Jaguars to kick off 2014. So when the Eagles hang 40-something points on the Jaguars on Sunday and for the next week we are forced to hear about how Chip Kelly is a genius and the Eagles’ offense is unstoppable and every trash site that create lists about the “Best” this and “Top” that for content start to compare Nick Foles to all-time greats and the Eagles’ offense to the 2013 Broncos or 2007 Patriots, it will be the NFL schedule makers’ fault. Eff you, NFL schedule makers. Eff you.

NEW YORK JETS -5.5 over Oakland
Here is the Jets’ schedule for their next six games after the Raiders: at Green Bay, Chicago, Detroit, at San Diego, Denver, at New England.

The Jets could easily lose all six of those games, but even if they don’t lose all six of them, it’s going to be very, very hard for them to go even .500 during the gauntlet. The Jets know this and know that if they have any hopes of staying in the playoff hunt through October they HAVE to beat Oakland. And even if they didn’t know this, there’s nothing the Raiders can do about it anyway.

Cincinnati +1.5 over BALTIMORE
Ravens-Bengals seems like it’s becoming what Ravens-Steelers was for so long. And if that’s the case, then I have to go with what I write for every Ravens-Steelers pick:

This game will be decided by three points. And when you know that, how can you not take the points?

CHICAGO -7 over Buffalo
Here is what I said about the Bears in my 2013 NFL Week 1 Picks:

The Bears are the closest things to the Giants in the NFL when you look at their talent and ability to completely destroy a playoff-bound season.

Here is what I said about the Bills in my 2013 NFL Week 1 Picks:

Bills fans don’t like when anyone talks poorly about them or picks against them (even when a spread is involved), but even a Bills fan with the Bills logo tattooed on his neck (someone like this has to exist) or a Bills fan with the Bills logo tattooed on his bald head (someone like this also has to exist) would tell you that the 2013 season is going to be fine.

Both things held true as the Bears blew their season and the Bills were what the Bills have been for basically my entire life. This game and line does feel too good to be true and whenever a game feels too good to be true, it usually is.

HOUSTON -3 over Washington
I want the Redskins to fail, so that when it comes time for Giants-Redskins on Thursday Night Football in Week 4, I can talk to my friend Ray, the biggest Redskins fan I know, and have him in a serious depression.

KANSAS CITY -4 over Tennessee
This line feels low. This game also feels like the one where I’m going to be thinking “Why didn’t I just take the points?” before halftime.

New England -5 over MIAMI
I wanted to take the Dolphins here. I really, really, really wanted to take the Dolphins here. But then I thought about flipping around between games on Sunday at 1:12 p.m. and flipping back to Patriots-Dolphins just in time to see CBS cutting to commercial with their NFL theme music playing and a shot of Tom Brady and Bill Belichick talking on the sidelines as a graphic appears on the screen that says New England 7, Dolphins 0, 13:54, 1st QTR. That exact situation has played out many times and I have tried to avoid being on the wrong end of it.

Carolina +2.5 over TAMPA BAY
I was initially confused about this line because the Panthers went 11-1 after a 1-3 start last season and the Buccaneers became the most dysfunctional team in a league that still has the Raiders. So when I saw the Panthers were 2.5-point underdogs with Cam Newton playing with a hairline fracture in his ribs, I was skeptical and still am. It seems like Vegas is joining the Tampa Bay bandwagon along with a lot of the football world and at least for one week they have me on board, but I’m sitting coach and next to the emergency exit for when I inevitably jump off for Week 2.

San Francisco -5 over DALLAS
If you saw the Cowboys roster and it was listed as the roster for “Team X” and Team X didn’t happen to be a national team with a heavy gambling presence, this line would be a lot higher than 5 for one of the NFL’s elite teams on the road against a team that’s headed for a six- or seven-win season. And I’m going to cherish every minute of the Cowboys’ inevitable miserable season.

DENVER -7.5 over Indianapolis
I honestly believe Peyton Manning has every single play for the entire first quarter already scripted out. If the script comes relatively close to the way it went at home last year for the Broncos then this pick will be fine.

New York Giants +6 over DETROIT
I originally saw this line at DETROIT -3.5 and now it’s moved 2 1/2 points to 6 as everyone watched the Giants’ first offensive team struggle to produce any kind of offense in five preseason games. But even with their struggles as long as Kevin Gilbride doesn’t have a direct connection into Eli Manning’s helmet to tell him to run a draw play on third-and-7 from the opponent’s 47-yard line then I like the Giants’ chances not only to cover in this season-opening game, but all season. (And it’s Week 1, of course I’m not picking against the Giants.)

ARIZONA -3 over San Diego
Maybe one day I won’t be so anti-San Diego and pick against them at any opportunity I get, but that day isn’t today in Week 1.

Blogs • Email Exchanges • Yankees

Sep 2, 2014

The Rivalry Is Now Irrelevant

Yankees-Red Sox in September isn’t what it used to be and it doesn’t look like it’s going to be what it once was anytime soon.

The last time the Yankees and Red Sox met was 30 days ago at Fenway Park when the Yankees overcame two three-run deficits on Sunday Night Baseball and looked like they might be ready to go on an August and September run after back-to-back come-from-behind wins in Boston. They went on to win three of four against the Tigers at the Stadium and my wish of a run down the stretch from the Yankees was coming true. But that run has been put on hold as the Yankees are just 9-11 over their last 20 games and are 4 games out of the second wild card with 28 games to play. Fortunately, the Red Sox are in the Bronx this week and if the Yankees want to keep their postseason dreams alive, there isn’t a better opponent to begin what will need to be a memorable September.

With the Yankees still somewhat alive in the wild-card race and the Red Sox just counting down the days until their miserable season is finally over, I emailed Mike Hurley of CBS Boston because that’s what I do when the Yankees and Red Sox play each other.

Keefe: The start of second grade. For both of us, that’s the last time both the Yankees and Red Sox missed the postseason. The fall of 1993, 21 years ago, was the last time September was basically meaningless for the two superpowers that have spent two decades at or near the top of baseball. That’s remarkable and astonishing and also sad and depressing.

The Red Sox suck and are the team they were in 2012 and the team they should have been in 2013, while the Yankees are 4 games out of the second wild card, the same wild card I was adamantly against with you when instituted two seasons ago. And at this point it’s going to take a 20-8 September from the Yankees to possibly have a shot at the one-game playoff or a one-game playoff to get to the one-game playoff.

The Red Sox aren’t going to the playoffs. The Yankees are most likely not going to the playoffs. The Orioles and Royals most likely are and the Indians or Mariners could be. Is this a world you want to live in?

Hurley: I have distinct memories of being in second grade, sitting at my desk. I drew a hockey net on the front side of the box, and I wrote “MOOG 35” on the back of a little troll toy I had. Remember those? Those were messed up. Anyway, as you might imagine, I was a genius and I didn’t need to pay attention in school, so I kept myself busy by using a pencil to fire slappers at my troll Andy Moog.

Now for you to tell me that the last time the Red Sox and Yankees didn’t make the playoffs was when I was going top shelf in Mrs. Castiglione’s class, that’s pretty messed up. Though admittedly, it’s kind of misleading. I mean, that’s much more about the Yankees, who have made the postseason in 17 of the last 19 years, than it is about the Red Sox, who kind of pop in and out of the playoffs when they’re feeling good and then occasionally drop to last place.

I’ll tell you, and you’ll probably agree, that it’s easy to root for the Indians. Any time Terry Francona can make Red Sox ownership look bad for firing him for no reason, it’s going to be pretty funny.

But to answer your question, is this a world I want to live in? I believe Michael Scott said it best.

Keefe: I do like Terry Francona even if he was the man responsible for ruining the year 2004 for me. If only he hadn’t been so calm and composed and had been freaking out and going wild in the dugout and throwing things and skipping press conferences with the media, the Red Sox wouldn’t have come back. I hate you, Terry Francona. (But I also don’t.)

I was in Mrs. Lazar’s class, Don Mattingly was still playing first base for the Yankees, Mike Gallego was wearing No. 2 and splitting time at shortstop with Spike Owen (no wonder the Yankees didn’t make the playoffs) and I didn’t understand that the Whalers sucked and would finish 25^th out of 26 in attendance that season. (The Islanders, Jets and Panthers outdrew the Whalers in 1993-94.) It’s been a long, long time since both teams were home in October. The problem is that this is going to become a frequent event thanks to teams locking up their players and ruining their chances at becoming free agents for the Yankees and Red Sox to fight over signing.

In New York, Yankees fans are upset that the Yankees don’t have young, homegrown talent, while also being upset that the team isn’t competitive right now. These fans likely forget that the dynasty that began in the mid-90s was made possible because of a long period of losing in the Bronx. Derek Jeter and Mariano Rivera and Andy Pettitte and Jorge Posada didn’t magically appear in the Bronx one day on the 4 train. It’s somewhat impossible to build through the draft and also sign big-name free agents in 2014 and while Brian Cashman continues to try and plug both old and new holes on a sinking boat, it seems inevitable that at some point you just need a new boat.

What’s the mood in Boston when it comes to the Red Sox? Do people even care that they suck this year? I realize they won the World Series last year and their five-year grace period is just starting while the Yankees’ five-year grace period from 2009 is over this season. Now that the Patriots are five days away from beginning their season and the Bruins are a month away from beginning theirs, do people even care about the Red Sox? It pains me that they won last year because if they were still looking at no postseason since 2009 and another miserable finish, I would imagine that John Henry wouldn’t be showing his face on Newbury Street or going out to dinner in the North End.

Hurley: The mood in Boston is kind of ridiculous, to be honest with you. The Red Sox traded away Jon Lester because they were unwilling to even get serious when it came to contract negotiations. Four years and $70 million for a durable lefty who was a badass in winning a World Series last year? What is that?

So they didn’t want to pay him because he’ll be in his 30s, and apparently they believe that no pitcher has ever pitched well in his 30s.

Nevertheless, the Red Sox traded away their homegrown star pitcher and then leaked info that they’re going to go after him hard in the offseason. And so many people bought it. What the hell is that? You don’t let your best players see what life is like on the other side of the fence, and you sure as hell don’t let them go to free agency when you have a chance to lock him up forever. It’s insane. Yet people are like “Oh, well they’re going to sign him in the winter, and they got Cespedes, so that’s OK!”

It’s madness.

As for the Sox now, they’re kind of non-existent. Some no-name on the Rays slid into second base on Saturday night and elbowed Dustin Pedroia in the head, and nobody seems to care. Everyone’s busy talking about Ryan Mallett and Logan Mankins.

But I’ll tell you, it’s not entirely different from last year. It was about a year ago to the date that Mike Cole and I bought tickets for $12 the day of a game and waltzed right in. It was pretty insane that just a few weeks later, they were beating Verlander and Scherzer and then winning the World Series. So even though the Red Sox were good last year and basically owned first place all year, there wasn’t much “Red Sox fever” gripping the region. People might be Sox’d out, which is understandable if you’ve seen how freaking hard everything Sox-related gets pushed on you in Boston.

Keefe: So I’m guessing the Fenway bricks and that sing-along CD from a couple years ago didn’t go over so well? That’s too bad.

In 24 days, Derek Jeter will either be playing three meaningless games in Fenway Park or playing three games that could determine the Yankees’ postseason chances. Right now, Jeter will be playing his final baseball game on Sunday, Sept. 28 in Boston in what could be a game full of September call-ups mirroring more of a March Grapefruit League game rather than a Yankees-Red Sox Game 162. But if the Yankees are eliminated from the playoffs before Game 160 in Boston, maybe Jeter doesn’t play that weekend at all?

Just last year, Mariano Rivera pitched at Yankee Stadium for what would be his final appearance ever in the Bronx and then he went with the Yankees to Houston and made that Stadium appearance his final appearance ever by not pitching in the final three games of the year. It’s obviously different for a position player than a closer and Jeter doesn’t seem like the type of person who would sit out three games he could play in before riding off into the sunset on the back porch of his Tampa mansion, but it would be better if Jeter plays Game 159 at the Stadium against Baltimore and then doesn’t board the plane to Boston if the Yankees are eliminated.

I would prefer if Boston doesn’t get to say goodbye to Jeets and give him four Duck Tour tickets, a burned out bulb from the Citgo sign, an old T token, a $25 gift card to the Bell in Hand and a painting of Haymarket or whatever they were going to give him for his farewell tour.

Hurley: See, in my ideal scenario, the Red Sox sign Pedro Martinez to a one-day contract and let him start on that Sunday. Jeter can bat leadoff and Pedro can go in on the hands with the first pitch, in on the hands again with pitch two, up at the chin with ball three, and then square in the back. Benches will clear, Boston and New York will be enraged, and for one fleeting moment, baseball will feel like it used to feel.

Do you think that can happen? Oh, and it would all come immediately after an over-the-top standing ovation from the Fenway crowd as Jeter is digging into the box. Tell me that wouldn’t be infinitely more exciting than whatever boring-as-crap reality is more likely to play out.

Keefe: I would sign up for that. Well, if the Yankees signed Roger Clemens and Jorge Posada for the day as well and we made things even more interesting. You can have Gabe Kapler too.

It disgusts me that Fenway Park is going to give Jeter an ovation every time he comes to the plate that series. Have some pride, Boston. This is a player who was the face of everything you hate for the last 19 years. He was a main reason for a lot of heartache and devastation your team and the focal point of many explicit T-shirts being sold outside the Kenmore T stop. Boo him, shout obscenities at him, feel free to bring batteries and golf balls to throw at him.

Let’s use David Ortiz as an example. Let’s say David Ortiz never used steroids and was even 10 percent as respectable of an athlete and person as Derek Jeter. Now let’s say David Ortiz is having a farewell tour and it’s coming to Yankee Stadium. There is no chance people are cheering for David Ortiz and thanking him and saluting him for the 2004 ALCS or any form of RE2PECT for him. And if they are, they should be held without bail in a Bronx jail for no less than a week.

Yankees-Red Sox used to mean something and in September it meant everything. Now not only might it not mean anything for both teams, but the face of the rivalry for the last two decades might be cheered the way Ortiz, Bobby Orr, Larry Bird and Tom Brady are in Boston. What an embarrassment.

Hurley: Yeah, sure thing. I bet if Jeter came and got booed, you’d be ranting and raving about how everyone from Boston is scum. So it’s kind of a lose-lose situation as far as Boston is concerned — well, that’s if anyone in Boston cared what Neil Keefe thinks about them.

Also, it’ll be 90% Yankee fans at Fenway on that Sunday. Ticket prices are absurd right now because my smart Boston brethren are fleecing you fools for a game in which Jeter might not even attend. Man, after saying that, I really hope he doesn’t make the trip. A bunch of jabronis spending $400 per ticket to fill Fenway, only to see Stephen Drew and Will Middlebrooks play baseball. That’d be classic.

I like how you praise Jeter as a great human too even though he agreed to star in a commercial where literally everyone in the world just tells him he’s the greatest thing to ever happen, and he’s just like, “Yeah, guys, I know it. Looks, Michael Jordan, I know, I’m the best. Thanks for the hat tip.” What a goober.

Nevertheless, you cheer the guy, because he was a good player who was a worthy rival for a long-ass time. People here won’t be cheering for him the way they cheer for Orr and Bird and Brady — people here would cheer when those guys fart. “Wow! Best fart of all time!!” Instead, people here will begrudgingly cheer for Jeter because A) it’s the right thing to do, and B) they’ll never have to see him send a dinky bloop single over the first baseman’s head to drive in another run.

Keefe: That was harsh. You won’t have to worry about those bloops even in September because he isn’t hitting the ball anywhere other than to short at this point. In the ninth inning on Sunday with the tying run on third and two outs, he hit his patented bloop to right and I thought at first it would fall and the Yankees would tie the game. But instead it fell at second base and the game was over. Not even the bloops are blooping anymore.

Since baseball has been over in Boston for a while now and the summer became more about you trying to get tickets for $2 and waiting until Week 1 of the NFL season, we are now there. It’s Week 1!

Even though you didn’t have much of a baseball season, at least you know your football team is going to walk through the regular season once again and end up with a first-round bye because the Jets still suck, the Dolphins somehow haven’t improved and the Bills are the Bills. You have at least five wins from your division before the opening kickoff of the season and then you just have to go .500 against the rest of the schedule and you have January football once again. It’s disgusting. Vegas has the Patriots over/under wins at 11 even though the last time the team won less than 11 games was Brady’s first season back from ACL surgery. Is there anyway the Patriots don’t win at least 12 games barring anything happening to TB12? Let me know so I can get a wager in on since is the last time I plan on talking to you until Sept. 26.

Hurley: 16-0. See you in Glendale, baby.

The Patriots have never played a bad game in Arizona after an undefeated regular season, have they? Didn’t think so! All right, now I’m ready for kickoff.

Blogs • Email Exchanges • Yankees

Aug 26, 2014

A Similar Situation for Yankees-Tigers Series

The Yankees’ three-game series in Detroit will likely serve as the turning point of their season one way or another after they spent the last week climbing out of their hole.

A five-game winning streak has the Yankees miraculously alive in the AL East and on the doorstep for the second wild card. This week’s three-game series in Detroit could put the Yankees in prime position to clinch a playoff berth over the the final 30 games of the year or it could put the Yankees back in the same hole they just spent the past week climbing out of.

With the Yankees and Tigers meeting for the first time in Detroit and the final time this season, I did an email exchange with Rob Rogacki of Bless You Boys to talk about what has happened to the Tigers since the trade deadline, the breakout season from Rick Porcello and the futures of Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer.

Keefe: I saw on Sunday that you tweeted, “Tomorrow, we are all Yankees fans,” with the Yankees playing a makeup game in Kansas City. The Yankees got the job done in Kansas City with an 8-1 win on Monday night and with a Mariners’ loss in Texas, the Yankees now trail the second wild-card spot by just 2.5 games. I know I shouldn’t be excited about the Yankees being in play for the second wild card, but that’s where injuries and an underachieving offense have left me. But your jump on the Yankees bandwagon only lasted a few hours as they now head to Detroit for a three-game series with your Tigers in a series that both teams desperately need to win.

On the day of the trade deadline, everyone sort of penciled in the Tigers and A’s for the ALCS because of their moves to strengthen the already strongest rotations in the league. But over the last four weeks, the Tigers and A’s have played themselves out of running away with their respective divisions and the Tigers aren’t even holding on to a playoff spot right now.

When the Yankees played the Tigers at the beginning of August, they looked like a different offensively and it was almost as if Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez didn’t beat you then no one would. Did the Tigers make one too many moves that actually made them worse since July 31?

Rogacki: I think that the pair of moves the Tigers made at the deadline definitely improved the team, especially given how well David Price has pitched so far. Price has a 2.35 ERA and 2.90 FIP in four starts in a Tigers uniform, but is just 1-1 thanks to a lack of run support. Price tossed a one-hitter against his former club in his last start, but lost 1-0 on an unearned run.

Losing Austin Jackson at the deadline definitely hurt the offense — especially given how he had been hitting in the second half — but the team’s struggles largely fall on the big bats in the lineup. Ian Kinsler had a .515 OPS in the second half prior to the team’s last road trip and scored just eight runs in a month-long span. Miguel Cabrera’s .820 OPS is excellent for most mortals, but far below what the Tigers expect of their $292 million man. Victor Martinez took a little while to recover from an oblique strain that hobbled him in July, but has turned things around with a .992 OPS in August.

The hitters aren’t the only problem, though. Justin Verlander and Anibal Sanchez have both missed starts this month, leading the Tigers to use guys like Robbie Ray and Buck Farmer in the rotation, with left-hander Kyle Lobstein tentatively scheduled to start on Thursday. The team’s lack of starting pitching depth is finally starting to be exposed, but with Verlander already back and Sanchez not far behind, the team looks poised to climb back into the playoff picture.

Keefe: I never understood the hype and attention paid to Rick Porcello as he grew up in the majors over the last five years, but now everyone is seeing why the Tigers have always been so high on him with 14 wins, a 3.10 ERA and a league-leading three shutouts. Porcello has become the front-end starter the Tigers hoped he would when they picked him in the first round in 2007.

What has been the biggest difference in the back-end starter Porcello was in his first five seasons and what he has become in 2014?

Rogacki: Porcello’s big leap actually came in 2013, but largely went unnoticed thanks to an unimpressive 13 wins and a 4.32 ERA. He posted the highest strikeout rate and strikeout-to-walk ratio of his career, resulting in a career-best 3.53 fielding independent pitching (FIP) measure. If that isn’t enough, look at what he did in the second half. From July 1st onward, Porcello was 9-2 with a 3.57 ERA in 14 starts. He held opponents to two runs or fewer in seven of those starts and logged his first complete game in a victory over the White Sox.

This season, Porcello’s strikeout rate has returned to earth, but his walk rate has also dropped. He is holding left-handed hitters to a .673 OPS, by far the best mark of his career. Opponents also have a .215 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) on ground balls against Porcello, well below the league average of .250. Part of this may be to weaker contact induced by Porcello locating his pitches, and part of this may be due to the Tigers’ improved infield defense. Third baseman Nick Castellanos and shortstop Eugenio Suarez have not been very impressive, but Ian Kinsler and Miguel Cabrera have statistically been two of the best defenders in baseball at their respective positions.

Keefe: In 2012, Justin Verlander was virtually as good as he was in his Cy Young an MVP season in 2011. In 2013, his ERA jumped to the mid-3s and his WHIP climbed and while he still had a good year, it wasn’t what we had become used to after his previous two seasons. Now in 2014, at age 31, in the second year of a seven-year, $180 million deal, Verlander has had a lot season.

Verlander has only had one full sub-.500 season in his career (when he led the league in losses with 17 on a bad 2008 Tigers team) and that same year was the only year his ERA was above 3.66 (it was 4.84), but this year he’s on his way to having his second-worst season of his career and his worst in six years.

What has happened to Justin Verlander? Do you just chalk this up as a lost season for him or are you worried about his future and his contract?

Rogacki: There’s always some level of worry when a pitcher gets a contract as long and expensive as the one that the Tigers gave Verlander prior to the 2013 season, but I’m not very concerned about his results in 2014. Verlander had core muscle repair surgery in early January — similar to the surgery Miguel Cabrera had last October — which seems to have sapped his stamina. He has a 3.67 ERA in innings 1-3 this season, but that figure jumps to 5.33 in innings 4-6 and 8.04 in the seventh inning or later.

Verlander hinted earlier this year that he still doesn’t feel 100 percent after the surgery, something that Cabrera reiterated around the All-Star break. It will be interesting to see how both stars come back in 2015, provided neither runs into any more setbacks along the way.

Keefe: Max Scherzer turned down a reported six-year, $144 million from the Tigers after his Cy Young-winning season, putting his right arm and future financial status on the line every time he throws a baseball. But this season, at 29, Scherzer has followed up his 2013 21-win season with another impressive year and with starting pitching as coveted as it’s ever been, he is likely to blow away the $144 million the Tigers offered him.

If I were Scherzer, I would have taken the guaranteed $144 million knowing that on any pitch at any time, you might never get a chance to make that kind of money again. But as long as he is able to stay healthy for another month (and possibly October if the Tigers get there), his gamble will have paid off.

Is there any chance Scherzer is a Tiger in 2015 and what do you think he will end up getting?

Rogacki: I don’t ever want to doubt what Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski is capable of, but the trade for David Price seems to have all but sealed Scherzer’s fate. The Tigers seem reluctant to offer him a contract longer than six years, while Scherzer appears to be after the biggest payday possible (a safe assumption when you’re talking about a Scott Boras client). If he hits the free agent market, I would not be surprised to see Scherzer become baseball’s second $200 million pitcher, especially considering that he has pitched at an ace level since mid-May of 2012. I would love to see him back with the Tigers next season — he’s as outgoing and goofy as baseball players get — but not at the kind of money he appears to be looking for.

Keefe: As this series starts, the Yankees are 6 games back of the Orioles and 2.5 games back of the second wild card. The Tigers are 1 ½ games back of the Royals and ½ game back of the second wild card. I think I’m safe in assuming that you didn’t expect the Tigers to be going down to the wire for a playoff spot when the season started or after they landed David Price and I know that on July 31 you didn’t think they might be looking at a scenario where they have to play a one-game playoff or one in which they don’t reach the postseason at all.

What are your feelings on the state of the Tigers on Aug. 26 and after their final 33 games, where will they be?

Rogacki: The Tigers definitely aren’t where any of us expected them to be at this point in the season, especially given how good they have looked at stretches this year. That said, I think that the Royals’ recent hot streak will end in the next week or two, and the Tigers will win their fourth consecutive AL Central crown. With 27 of their final 33 games against AL Central opponents — and the other six games at Comerica Park — they have plenty of time to jump ahead of the Royals and get back into the postseason.

But that doesn’t mean we don’t appreciate the help. Nicely done last night, Yanks.

Blogs • Yankees

Aug 14, 2014

The Joe Girardi Show: Season 5, Episode 4

David Roberston went unused once again as Joe Girardi called upon Shawn Kelley to hand the Yankees’ their fourth straight loss in the middle of a playoff race.

Each off day for the Yankees feels like an eternity, but after the rain created an off day on Tuesday, I thought it would work in the team’s favor after a two-run lead became a blowout loss. Here we are again with another off day for the Yankees and the lingering feeling from Wednesday night isn’t going away and I’m not sure it’s going to.

Last Friday, I said:

I haven’t been this excited about the Yankees since the moment right before Nick Swisher misplayed a ball that became a Delmon Young doubled, which led to Derek Jeter breaking his ankle on the next play, just five pitches later.

As of now, I haven’t been this down on the Yankees since, well, what I said next last Friday:

But Swisher misplayed that ball, Jeter broke his ankle, I nearly broke down in tears in Section 230 at the Stadium and aimlessly wandered home.

After winning three of four against the Tigers, and playing well enough to have swept the series if Joe Girardi only knew Matt Daley wasn’t going to be a good idea, and then beating up on the Indians last Friday night, in my delusional Yankees mind, I thought that I prematurely wrote the column “Sign Me Up for the Second Wild Card” and thought they could make a real run at the Orioles and their then-five-game lead. But here I am, six days after beating the Indians and the Yankees haven’t won a game since. Back-to-back losses to the Indians at home followed by back-to-back blown-lead losses to the Orioles on the road and the Yankees have played themselves out of contention for the division and each night their chances at winning the second wild card fade a little more.

So yes, the last time I felt this bad about the Yankees was when Jeter got carried off the field and now the realization that Game 1 of the 2012 ALCS might have been the last time Jeter ever plays in the postseason and that the last Sunday in September in Boston might be the last time he ever plays baseball is a real possibility. The only way that Game 162 isn’t Jeter’s last game if the Yankees win at least 25 of their remaining 43 games, and even then that might not be enough.

On Wednesday night, Hal Steinbrenner tried to be his dad by saying his team “has to step it up and they know it,” in what was the emptiest of all empty gestures since everyone will be back and paid next season and everyone will keep their job even if the Yankees miss out on the postseason for the second consecutive year in a world where 33 percent of the league gets into the postseason. While Hal was busy meeting about who the next commissioner of baseball should be (and it should be anyone other than Tom Werner), his team was busy giving away another game to the first-place Orioles thanks to some more questionable decision making from Joe Girardi.

So once again, it was necessary to fill in for Michael Kay on my version of The Joe Girardi Show.

Why the sudden urgency to use Dellin Betances?
Someone must have told Girardi that last night was Game 119 of the season and there are now only 43 games left because I can’t think of another reason to explain his sudden urgency. The urgency that I have begged for and waited for all season came in the sixth inning when Girardi turned to Dellin Betances to get nine outs, something that he hasn’t done as a reliever and something that I’m happy he asked him to do. But why all of a sudden, Joe? Where was this urgency when you didn’t care about giving away games or playing with the mindset of losing battles to win the war even if you might not end up winning the war anyway? I’m ecstatic to know that you know not only what “urgency” means, but that you are now also aware of the date and how many games remain on the schedule.

Betances got the first seven of nine outs before giving up a solo home run to Jonathan Schoop. Schoop is hitting .217/.255/.349 with 11 home runs and 32 RBIs this season in 97 games. But against the Yankees, Schoop is hitting .379/.400/.862 with four home runs and 11 RBIs in just 29 at-bats. So of course the newest Yankee killer, and Orioles’ No. 8 hitter, was the one who blew Betances’ impressive outing to that point with a game-tying home run.

Maybe Girardi didn’t expect Betances to get all nine outs, but I have a hard time believing that he was going to ask Betances to get eight outs and then with Betances cruising with two outs and no one on in the eighth, that he would then call on David Robertson. So if Betances retires Schoop, he faces Nick Hundley. But Betances gives up the home run and Joe Girardi calls on Shawn Kelley to get the final two outs of the eighth inning instead of Robertson. So it’s Kelley in a now tied game, a game the Yankees had to win to have any hope of fighting for the division and to keep them from losing further ground in the second wild-card race.

Why did Shawn Kelley relieve Dellin Betances?
Before Joe Girardi calls on Shawn Kelley to relieve Dellin Betances, here is what we know about the situation: Shawn Kelley isn’t good at pitching. And really that’s all you need to know about the reliever you’re bringing in instead of the best reliever in your bullpen.

Kelley got Hundley to ground out before giving up a single to Markakis and walking Chris Davis. (Now would be a good time to bring in your best reliever, right? Wrong.) First-pitch slider to Adam Jones … ballgame over.

Kelley followed his horrendous outing by talking to the media and saying, “I think we’re looking more at the second wild-card spot. That’s a little bit better number, it’s a little more achievable at this point.”

There’s nothing quite like single-handedly destroying a game and then saying that the team is no longer playing for the division after losing to the team in the division you’re trying to catch because of your own performance.

Is David Robertson ever going to pitch again?
Today is Aug. 14. David Robertson last threw a pitch on Aug. 7 against the Tigers. He has pitched in four games in August and has thrown 57 pitches in 14 days, or 4.07 pitches per day for August. The Yankees have pitched 109 innings in August and Robertson has pitched four of those, or 3.7 percent of the Yankees’ pitched innings. Adam Warren, Chase Whitley, Shawn Kelley, David Huff and Esmil Rogers have all thrown as many or more innings than Robertson in August. But why would you want to use your best reliever more than once a week while fighting for your playoff life?

I guess Joe Girardi’s plan is to save Robertson’s arm for 2015 when he could be on a different team since he is a free agent at the end of the year, the way he saved Mariano Rivera’s arm so he could play catch with his kids for the rest of his life, or the way he is saving Derek Jeter, so he has enough energy to play on the beach and make love to Hannah Davis for the rest of his life. So while Shawn Kelley was busy destroying the Yankees’ chances at splitting two games in Baltimore, David Robertson was sitting in the bullpen, unused for the fifth game in a row.

This shouldn’t really be a surprise though when you look at the history of Girardi and the rest he has given Robertson. In 2011, David Robertson pitched 13 1/3 innings in September, appearing in only 13 of the Yankees’ 28 games. He threw 11 pitches in Game 161 on Sept. 27 to get some work and also be completely rested for the playoffs. But once the playoffs started, he continued to go unused, pitching just two innings in the five-game series loss to the Tigers. His first appearance in the series didn’t come until Game 3 on Oct. 3 (so he had five full days off). But guess who pitched in Games 1 and 2? Luis Ayala! And even Cory Wade got to pitch in Game 2 before Robertson. So Joe Girardi used Luis Ayala and Cory Wade before his rested, dominant, All-Star setup man in the playoffs. Why? Because playoff innings don’t matter the same way games in August apparently don’t matter. And with this bullpen management, games in September won’t matter either.