Blogs – Page 188 – Keefe To The City

Apr 10, 2015

A New Chapter of Yankees-Red Sox

The Yankees-Red Sox rivalry isn’t what it used to be, so to remember the glory days, it’s time to look back at some of key moments in recent seasons.

It has never made sense to me to have the Yankees and Red Sox play so early in the season. Sure, there was Opening Night on Sunday Night Baseball in 2005 and Opening Night on Sunday Night Baseball in 2010 and Opening Day in 2013, but if you’re not going to have the teams open the season, then wait until a little later in April rather than the first weekend of the season.

It would have made more sense to have the Yankees and Red Sox both open in warm-weather places or in domes, but that didn’t happen, so they will play three more games in nasty early-April conditions. And with the Yankees and Red Sox meeting this weekend in the Bronx, I emailed Mike Hurley of CBS Boston because that’s what I do when the Yankees and Red Sox play.

Keefe: I have tried to avoid you since Feb. 1 after Pete Carroll made the worst big-game decision in the history of sports. THE HISTORY OF SPORTS. Instead of Jermaine Kearse’s wild catch going down as being even more ridiculous than David Tyree’s en route to a Patriots Super Bowl loss, Tom Brady and Bill Belichick get their fourth Super Bowl win and Boston fans get to celebrate. Disgusting. Just absolutely disgusting.

But that’s not why I’m emailing you today. I’m emailing you because the Yankees and Red Sox are playing for the first time in 2015. And nothing says Yankees-Red Sox like Games 4, 5 and 6 of the season in freezing rain and win in the Bronx.

On Wednesday night at Yankee Stadium, I sat in the worst weather imaginable for baseball and the only other time I was so cold at the Stadium was for Rangers-Islanders on Jan. 29, 2014 at 8 p.m. Yes, I not only sat outside in late January at 8 p.m. to watch a hockey game I could barely see, but I paid an exorbitant amount of money to do so. At least I got to watch CeeLo Green sing between periods, so I can tell my future grandchildren about that.

Why is it that MLB doesn’t just make it so 15 teams always open at home? Those teams are the Rays, Blue Jays, Royals, Angels, Rangers, Mariners, Astros, Braves, Marlins, Cardinals, Brewers, Dodgers, Giants, Diamondbacks and Padres.

This almost seems too easy and I guess that’s why it hasn’t happened.

Hurley: It’s appropriate that you’re emailing me before this weekend, because unless I’m mistaken, I believe you and I are the starting pitchers for Saturday’s game. Right?

I was actually just saying Thursday night, watching the Red Sox playing in freezing cold Philly for the second straight night, that there should be zero games north of the Mason-Dixon line until May 1st. There’s just no reason games should be played in Boston, New York, Philly, Minneapolis, Chicago, Detroit, Cleveland, Pittsburgh or Washington D.C. until May. The weather here sucks oh so bad, and watching guys from the Caribbean try to play through the elements is brutal. It’s terrible baseball. Freddy Galvis let a line drive go in and out of his glove on Thursday because he was wearing a full freaking ski mask. It was a joke.

But hey, at least the schedule makers are smart enough to utilize the two weekend games in the Bronx this weekend to play during the day, when the weather has a chance to be somewhat decent, right? It’s not like they’d give the Red Sox an 8 p.m. ESPN game on the night before their 3 p.m. home opener, right? Right??

Man, good thing Adrian Gonzalez isn’t on this year’s Red Sox team. He probably would have fainted and suffered a concussion after seeing the schedule.

Keefe: Adrian Gonzalez’s season-ending excuses in 2011 will go down as a Top 10 all-time Boston sports moment for me. And speaking of Gonzalez, he has five home runs in three games to start the season. How insane is that? Mark Teixeira probably won’t hit his fifth home run until June and maybe even later than that if he spends time on the disabled list with light-headedness or tired legs.

When you think of Gonzalez, do you ever miss him being on the Red Sox?

Hurley: Well, I’ll be honest, I really liked him for the first half of 2011. He seemed like a baseball savant, and his swing was beautiful. It was effortless, and he crank dingers over the bullpen at Fenway with ease. It seemed like the only thing he did was smoke the baseball, and that was cool with me.

But he really showed his true colors in the second half of the season, when the pressure ramped up and his batting average dropped 40 points, his OPS dropped more than 100 points, and he hit just 10 homers (compared to 17 in the first half). Then when they were amazingly eliminated on that final night of the season, him talking about God’s plan and the tough schedule was just ridiculous.

So no, I don’t miss him. He was an amazing hitter, and it was cool to see his work ethic in the video room and stuff like that play out in game situations. But he couldn’t handle the pressure here and was miserable and angry through 2012. He’s in a perfect place now. If he hits homers, people cheer. If he goes on a prolonged slump, I’m not sure anyone will notice out in L.A.

When you think of 2011 and the “Best Team Ever” storyline, do you ever miss it? Was it the best time of your life?

Keefe: The 2011 season was glorious time. The “Best Team Ever” headline, the September collapse and listening to Felger and Mazz rip the entire organization every day along with having “Carmine” and also John Henry on the show was a great time to be a Yankees fan. Actually 2009 through present day minus 2013 has been an amazing time to be a non-Red Sox fan, and that’s why 2013 gets me upset.

The 2009 season was full of Brad Penny and John Smoltz starts and David Ortiz hitting .188 with one home run on June 5. In 2010, the Red Sox missed the playoffs again and then the magical 2011 season. 2012 was the Bobby Valentine disaster and a 93-loss season. And then 2014 was another last-place finish and a 91-loss season.

I know in Boston you have the Impossible Dream season in which the team didn’t even win the World Series, but 2013 was the Impossible Dream. Actually, it was the Miracle of All Miracles.

Now with this revamped lineup in 2015, I’m a little worried this era of bad Red Sox baseball might be ending. The only thing giving me hope is that the rotation is full of No. 3 and No. 4 starters.

Hurley: You bring up the Impossible Dream, and it raises a topic I’ve never understood for my whole life. I was born in ’86, obviously the year the Red Sox screwed up by letting the freaking Mets win a World Series. It would be so much funnier if both the Mets and the Jets hadn’t won since 1969. Alas …

But what I don’t understand is how prior to 2004, the Impossible Dream and Fisk home run were held in the highest possible regard by Red Sox fans. Like, how bad were things that getting bent over by Bob Gibson three times (27 IP, 3 ER, 26 SO, 0.704 WHIP) didn’t spoil the postseason run, or where losing in the ninth inning of Game 7 in 1975 didn’t stop people from celebrating a homer to win Game 6? That’s insane. They lost! But if you entered any Boston sports museum during the ’90s, or if you’ve ever talked to an old person in Boston, they’d talk your ear off about those glorious times. It’s pretty nuts.

Anyway, it doesn’t take too long of a look at the Red Sox current roster to know what they are. They are going to hit dingers. So many dingers. And their pitching is going to be bad. If they were allowed to face quadruple-A lineups like Philly’s all year, they’d be fine, but I think against real offenses, the Red Sox will see themselves in a lot of 11-9 ballgames.

That being said, it’d be hard to put together a great starting rotation using all of the AL East, so I do think they should be competitive in that race.

Keefe: I miss the days when Red Sox fans only had a game-winning home run in a World Series they lost to get nostalgic about. These last 11 years have ruined all of that. But what if 11 years ago, the MLBPA didn’t care about the idea of A-Rod giving money back to leave a last-place Rangers team to join the Red Sox? What if A-Rod had gone to Boston and not New York and were still on the Red Sox?

People like to say that the Red Sox wouldn’t have won in 2004 or since if A-Rod is a Red Sox, but not only do they win in 2004 and after, but they are unstoppable in 2004 and the 3-0 Yankees collapse never happens. The Red Sox were top to the bottom the better team that year and if you put A-Rod in that lineup and remove Manny, not much changes. The Yankees probably don’t win the AL East and they certainly don’t beat the Twins in the ALDS, which they only did because of A-Rod.

If A-Rod is part of the team that brings the Red Sox their first world championship since 1918, he is a sports legend and a hero in Boston. Instead, he is A-Rod and the most hated man in Boston sports history, for really no reason since he was willing to go to the Red Sox.

Hurley: I love talking to you about baseball because inevitably, at some point you are going to go into an absolute mental breakdown due to the events that took place between Oct. 17 and Oct. 20 in 2004.

Seeing you send yourself into psychotic fits of rage, anger and confusion is my favorite pastime.

The failed A-Rod trade is one of the craziest and most quickly forgotten sports stories in Red Sox history. Manny was gone. Nomar was gone. A-Rod was in. Magglio Ordonez was in. Everything was WEIRD.

It’s actually why — and I’m not sure if you know this — when Manny accepted his World Series MVP Award live on Fox that night in ’04, after Boston had won its first World Series since before mos people drove cars, he was asked a softball question by Jeanne Zelasko. “What do you say to the fans who have waited 86 years?” The first words out of his mouth were, “We want Alex! But you know, now I’m in Boston, and I love you guys! You guys are the best!”

Just the biggest moment in franchise history, and the MVP is basically saying, “Eff you guys, you wanted me traded for A-Rod.”

But nobody really paid attention to that because of the whole World Series thing. In Boston, we are really good at ignoring the dumb stuff you say, so long as you keep socking dingers.

Keefe: In no other city can an athlete call the city he plays in a “shithole” and still be loved! But hey, it’s just David Ortiz being David Ortiz, so we’ll let it slide. If he wants to call the city that is home to the fans that pay his salary a “shithole” or complain about his contract every spring or “write” essays for The Players’ Tribune about why anyone who says he used PEDs is a fool, so be it. David Ortiz can do whatever he wants!

I never understood why fans in Boston weren’t at least a little upset by the way Ortiz acts, but I guess helping the team to three World Series in 11 years will give him a pass. I won’t lump you into those “fans” though since I know your fandom is long gone and 18-year-old Michael Hurley celebrating a Red Sox World Series win in his dorm room is long gone too. But I guess having a sixth-month old baby and being around millionaire athletes who wouldn’t call AAA for you if you were stuck on the side of the road will do that.

Hurley: I actually spit out the peanut butter cracker I was eating when I read your last line. That is just so true. I could be lying on the clubhouse floor, nerd-ass shirt tucked into my nerd-ass khakis while holding my nerd-ass recorder and my nerd-ass notepad, and I could be convulsing, in dire need of medical attention, and those dudes would just step right over me. And probably laugh about it.

That’s obviously an exaggeration. But like, not that big of an exaggeration.

But hey, I’m not going to let the inherent weirdness of the player-reporter relationship stop me from talking about what kind of guy some of these people are. That’s a totally normal thing to do. Did you see the DEVASTATING Milton Bradley story this week?

I’m sure plenty of baseball writers over the years said he was misunderstood and wasn’t that much of a hot head. Good stuff, guys!

Keefe: I love when writers and reporters wish a player a “Happy Birthday” or congratulate him for a milestone on Twitter as if they care. I’m going to write, “Happy 41st Birthday, Derek Jeter!” this June 26 even though Jeter doesn’t have Twitter.

On Thursday, Mike Francesa had Jim Nantz on (because they are best friends) to talk about The Masters and Nantz told Francesa about Tiger Woods’ state of mind entering the tournament and how Woods’ kids seem happy as if he has seen inside Woods’ head or if he is one of his children. And you know that Nantz 100 percent believes he knows exactly what is going on in Tiger Woods’ life or what it’s like to be one of Tiger Woods’ kids after all that has happened over the years. Jim Nantz is the worst.

But back to baseball … I’m not sure where the 2015 season is going to take us. The Yankees have pitching and no hitting. The Red Sox have hitting and no pitching. The Blue Jays have hitting and no pitching and the Orioles are pretty much in that same boat with a little more pitching than the Blue Jays. As for the Rays, well they should probably stick “Devil” back in front of their name because it’s going to be 1998-2007 in Tampa Bay. But maybe that’s not such a bad thing because I miss the days when the Rays would give the Yankees an easy 15 wins a year.

As for now, hopefully the Yankees can score more than three runs total in the three games this weekend and Mark Teixeira remembers to drink water and stay hydrated and I’ll be sure to bother you again in three weeks when the Yankees head to Boston for the weekend.

Hurley: Pretty bold of you to claim the Yankees have pitching as they enter a series where they’ll start Nathan Eovaldi and Adam Warren for the first two nights and then hope Masahiro Tanaka can flirt with 90 mph in the finale. Pretty bold. But I’d expect nothing less from you.

I have put in a mass order of popcorn for the weekend. I’m ready to see some dingers.

Blogs • Yankees

Apr 9, 2015

I’m Proud of Joe Girardi for Now

Joe Girardi made me proud in the second game of the season when he decided to not manage his bullpen for a stat, but rather for a win.

I’m proud of Joe Girardi. I don’t say that often, actually I don’t think I’ve ever said it, but I’m proud of him for at least today and it’s because of how he used the bullpen in the Yankees’ first win of 2015.

Sure, I would be even more proud of him if he started using this lineup every game:

1. Jacoby Ellsbury, CF
2. Brett Gardner, LF
3. Alex Rodriguez, DH
4. Brian McCann, C
5. Mark Teixeira, 1B
6. Carlos Beltran, RF
7. Chase Headley, 3B
8. Stephen Drew, 2B
9. Didi Gregorius, SS

But since I know that won’t happen (and the No. 1 reason it won’t happen is because Girardi will likely think his lineup is a winning combination even though the Yankees are 1-1 and not 0-2 because of a bloop double, two hit by pitches, a wild pitch and a double-play ball off a glove), I have to be happy with what I get.

Before the season started, I talked with Chad Jennings of The Journal News and we talked about how it would make the most sense for the 2015 Yankees to not have a closer (it would actually make the most sense for every team to not have a closer). The Yankees are better suited to use Dellin Betances and Andrew Miller in any inning and at any time rather than forcing them to have set innings and in Game 2 of the season we got our first look at what Girardi will do in the late innings of a close game. We joked that Girardi isn’t likely to be the guy that revolutionizes the game of baseball by not having a closer and by using his elite back-end arms in any situation, but then Girardi did just that. (I also talked with former Yankees reliever and setup man Steve Karsay about having set bullpen roles and he talked about relievers wanting to know when they will be used.)

Everyone assumed Betances would be the closer to start the season, but on Wednesday night with Russell Martin, Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion due up, Girardi went to the right-handed Betances for the eighth inning. Two walks, a single, an error, an unearned run and 31 pitches later, the inning was over with the Blue Jays extending their lead to 3-1, but Girardi proved he isn’t scared of changing the way he manages games late.

If that had been a game in June or July, we probably wouldn’t have seen Betances in that spot, but with the Yankees’ offense having trouble scoring runs (two runs in 16 innings when Betances came in) and Girardi desperately not wanting to lose the first two games of the season at home, he went with his assumed closer in the eighth inning of a game the Yankees were trailing by one run and didn’t manage for a stat or a save situation. Sitting in the Stadium I felt a sense of pride overcome me that I imagine is the same feeling a parent has when their child speaks or walks or ties their own shoes for the first time.

Andrew Miller was dominant in the ninth, getting two ground outs and a strikeout for the save in his first appearance as a Yankee and proving the Yankees’ bullpen is the team’s strength and really the only reliable aspect of the entire team. Add in Chris Martin’s scoreless sixth inning and the bullpen’s line through two game is: 8 IP, 2 H, 2 R, 1 ER, 5 BB, 7 K. And if Justin Wilson didn’t do his best Shawn Kelley impression and walk the bases loaded on Opening Day and if Betances had any sort of control on his breaking balls then those numbers would look even better.

When asked about the end of the game, Miller (who impressed me with how intelligent and well-spoken he was in spring training) said, “They’re going to look at the lineup card and try to determine who has what portion of the lineup.”

The logic behind that idea made almost too much sense and I had to read it a few times.

“So it’s just however it falls,” Miller said. “If it had fallen that the eighth inning had been that 6 through 1 section, it would have been me in the eighth and Dellin would have gone out and closed the game.”

It really was a beautiful thing on Wednesday night. Using your best right-handed reliever in a non-save situation to keep a game close, not knowing that you will even come back, because the lineup at the time was right-handed heavy (the Blue Jays don’t even have a left-handed, non-switch hitter on their team)? I almost started crying in my seat the Stadium at the sight of it and they wouldn’t have been winter-weather, freezing-rain, cold-wind induced tears. They would have been tears of joy. Thankfully, I kept it together in front of the other 8,000 people at the game.

The season is only two games old and I would have thought I would be writing the latest Joe Girardi Show column questioning his decisions in the first week of the season rather than praising him for them. I’m not about to say that Giradi is in the clear from criticism because I know the second I do he will name Miller the closer, but for now, I’m on Joe’s side when it comes to the bullpen. Now about that lineup …

Blogs • Email Exchanges • Yankees

Apr 6, 2015

Jealous of the Blue Jays’ Power

The Blue Jays’ lineup is what the Yankees’ lineup once was and the middle of the order is going to be hard to navigate through this season.

Last week it snowed in New York and this Monday, the Yankees are opening the season in the Bronx against the Blue Jays. It would make more sense to probably play this three-game series in Toronto where there is a dome, but for the first time in forever there is some good weather in the forecast for Opening Day at the Stadium. Either way, baseball is back and that’s all that matters.

With the Yankees and Blue Jays opening the season in the Bronx, I did an email exchange with Tom Dakers of Bluebird Banter to talk about the Blue Jays’ powerful 3-4 combination, the new additions of Russell Martin and Josh Donaldson to the lineup and the state of the Blue Jays’ rotation with Marcus Stroman out for the season.

Keefe: It seems like for a while now it’s been common for preseason predictions to say this is the Blue Jays’ season. And once again that’s the case. The Blue Jays might have the best offense in the league. With a heart of the order that includes Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion and Josh Donaldson, it’s going to be a nightmare for any pitcher to navigate through that every game and that’s not including Jose Reyes at the top of the order or the pesky and former Yankee Russell Martin, who seems to get the biggest of hits.

How excited are you for this Blue Jays lineup?

Dakers: Every spring for the past several years, we thought that the offense was going to be a “world beater”-type offense. A team that would lead the league in scoring. And each year, due to injuries and players not living up to their potential, we ended up with a good, but not great offense.

This year, we are going to have that great offense. One through five, we are better than anyone in the AL. With Donaldson taking the spot of the always-promising, but never-quite-living-up-to-that-promise Brett Lawrie, we should be so much better. Russell Martin’s ability to take a walk won’t hurt. Six through nine in the order doesn’t strike the same amount of fear in opposing teams, but I think they will be better than most imagine.

I think Michael Saunders and Justin Smoak will be helped a bunch by moving from the rather large Safeco Field to the far more offensive friendly Rogers Centre. And I think rookies Dalton Pompey and Devon Travis will do their part to get us back up to the top of the order again, quickly. I’d be very surprised if we aren’t in the Top 2 or 3 in runs scored this year.

Keefe: The Yankees haven’t had a truly formidable 3-4 combination since 2009-2010 when Mark Teixeira and A-Rod were still productive and healthy and could be counted on for their usual power numbers. The Blue Jays have 3-4 combination that every team in the league envies and dreams of in Jose Bautista and Ediwn Encarnacion and each time they don’t hit the ball a mile in an at-bat it’s a sigh of relief. It seems like both of them get their best swings in against the Yankees and both of them seem to be good for a couple of home runs each series against the Yankees.

I miss the days of having steady and reliable production from the middle of the order. How much fun is it to watch those two every day? (I ask because I forget what it’s like.)

Dakers: It’s pretty good. We know that, barring injury, we have 30-plus home runs coming from both Bautista and Encarnacion. If we can get guys on base in front of them, they should both have 100 RBIs easy. This year, for an added bonus, we have Josh Donaldson following them. Donaldson, moving from Oakland to Toronto, might end up hitting the most home runs of the three.

As a Blue Jays fan, I’ve been blessed with getting to watch some great 3-4 hitters over the years. We’ve had Carlos Delgado-Shawn Green, Delgado-Vernon Wells and George Bell and Jesse Barfield, but I think we might end up looking back Bautista and Encarnacion as the best 3-4 hitters in team history.

Keefe: On the other side of the ball, the Blue Jays aren’t set up as nicely. The devastating torn ACL to Marcus Stroman, leaves the Blue Jays without a front-end starter. They still have R.A. Dickey, Mark Buehrle, and Drew Hutchison, which is better than the.

Aside from the Roy Halladay years, the Blue Jays have lacked a true ace in recent years. Maybe Dickey was supposed to be that when he went to Toronto from the Mets before the 2013 season, but he hasn’t been able to continue his 2010-2012 success over the last two years in the AL.

Does the Blue Jays’ pitching worry you?

Dakers: As the pitching sits, on Opening Day, I think we are OK. Many are picking Drew Hutchison to have a breakout season. Mark Buehrle and R.A. Dickey keep giving us 200-inning seasons. And Aaron Sanchez and Daniel Norris have tons of potential and look ready to deliver on that potential. The problem really is that, with Marcus out, forcing both Sanchez and Norris into the rotation, we are paper thin at the position. If one of the starting five were to be injured for any length of time, we would be left with hoping someone like Johan Santana or Randy Wolf can remember how to get guys out or be treated to the likes of Liam Hendriks or Marco Estrada.

Now, we can live with the odd spot start from any of those guys, but multiple starts from anyone one of them could really derail our season. So, Jays fans have to hope for something that we never seem to get, the baseball gods to bless our rotation with health. Maybe this will be the season it happens.

Keefe: Last year, when we did an email exchange for the first Yankees-Blue Jays series in April, you said you weren’t a fan of the Dickey trade and it didn’t work out, but that you were hoping he could be a good member of the rotation.

What are your feelings on Dickey after two years of watching him with the Blue Jays?

Dakers: The good part about Dickey is he takes the ball every five days and will give us six decent innings. Not great innings, but he usually will keep the team in the game. This year, with our offense, that should be enough. But, if you are expecting him to be the guy that outduels the opposition’s ace, it’s not going to happen.

If you have an understanding of what he can give you, 200 of slightly above average starting pitching innings, well, there is a value to that. Unfortunately, the Jays traded for (and gave up pieces that should have got them) the NL Cy Young winner, and what they got was an innings eater and someone that’s OK, but is definitely not ace material.

Keefe: The Blue Jays won 83 games last year, but haven’t finished higher than third place since 2006 and haven’t made the playoffs since 1993. They made what seemed to be a franchise-changing trade with the Marlins two years ago and that didn’t work out. Now they have signed Russell Martin and traded for Josh Donaldson.

The AL East is wide open with no clear favorite this season. You could make a case for any team other than the Rays to win the division this year and every team other than the Rays could win it.

What are your expectations for the Blue Jays this season?

Dakers: I expect them to contend. I think they can be win around 89-90 games, and in a fairly weak-looking AL East, that should be enough to contend. I think their offense is a couple of notches better than last year, I think the team defense is much improved and I think the pitching staff can be better (in large part because I think that Russell Martin is a far better defensive catcher and massively better at framing pitches than Dioner Navarro was).

What they need is health and lots of it. They aren’t deep at any position on the diamond, so an injury or two might have us using Munenori Kawasaki far more than any of us would want, yet again. I mean, I don’t want to knock Munenori, he’s a great guy and a cult favorite in Toronto, and if you are going to have to use a replacement level player, it might as well be a very entertaining one. But if he ends up getting 250 plate appearances again this year, it will be tough to contend.

Blogs • Opening Day • Yankees

Apr 3, 2015

The 2015 Yankees Order of Importance

CC Sabathia has been the most important Yankee since becoming one in 2009, but that’s no longer as the case and there’s a new No. 1 for 2015.

I thought that writing an Order of Importance for the Yankees meant that they would make the playoffs. I did it in 2011 (lost in the ALDS) and 2012 (lost in the ALCS) and then didn’t in 2013 and figured that was the reason the Yankees didn’t make the playoffs and not the devastating injuries to Derek Jeter, Mark Teixeira, Curtis Granderson, Alex Rodriguez, Kevin Youkilis, Travis Hafner, Francisco Cervelli, or the incompetence of CC Sabathia and Phil Hughes. So last year, I wrote an Order of Importance again, and well, my theory was proved wrong.

If you want to know how much the 2014 season sucked, look no further than the Order of Importance from last year. I ranked the 14 most important Yankees with CC Sabathia at No. 1 again, Mark Teixeiera at No. 2 and Brian McCann at No. 3. Sabathia made eight starts, Teixeira hit .216 and started making up injuries and McCann was a free-agent bust for nearly the entire season until he found a way to get his numbers up to his career usuals at the end of the year.

Last year, I said, “Things change as does the Order of Importance for the Yankees and it’s never changed as much as it has from 2013 to 2014 with so much turnover on the roster.” Once again it has changed drastically and fortunately this year you won’t find Kelly Johnson on the list.

This time I have ranked the 14 most important Yankees once again from least important to most important based on the criteria of what it would mean to the team if they missed significant time or performed so badly in 2014 that it was like they were missing time.

Number 30, Nathan Eovaldi, Number 30
The Yankees’ No. 4 starter is the reigning hits allowed leader from the National League. How that is possible when you throw as hard as Eovaldi hurts my head to even think about, but he is only 25 years old and there is promise that he will become the strikeout pitcher he should be.

This is Nathan Eovaldi’s line from this spring: 13.2 IP, 10 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 14 K, 0.66 ERA, 0.732 WHIP. Eovaldi isn’t going to keep those kind of numbers up since that would translate to the best starting pitching performance in the history of baseball and the best season of any athlete in any sport in the history of sports. Wayne Gretzky’s 92-120-212 season from 1981-82 wouldn’t even be in the same stratosphere. Since Eovaldi isn’t going to go the entire season without walking a batter, it’s time to think more realistically.

Those 14 strikeouts in 13 2/3 innings this spring is what everyone should be looking for from Eovaldi. He has never come close to striking out one hitter per inning in his five seasons in the league and as a hard-throwing starter, it’s a little odd. One Mets fan told me he’s going to be the Yankees’ Mike Pelfrey as someone who throws mid-to-high-90s and doesn’t strike anyone out. But after trading Martin Prado, who was looking to be a vital piece to the 2015 Yankees and David Phelps, who the organization has loved, for Eovaldi, let’s hope they’re right that time with Larry Rothschild can get the most out of his untapped potential.

Number 12, Chase Headley, Number 12
Chase Headley is a lucky guy. The Yankees were originally linked to him back in 2012 when he hit .286/.376/.498 with 31 home runs and 115 RBIs for the Padres, but the Yankees didn’t trade for him. He returned to his normal production the last two years and hit just 26 home runs combined in 2013 and 2014. So how exactly is he lucky? Well, if the Yankees had moved major pieces to acquire him for 2013, Headley wouldn’t have many fans left in New York with the immediate loss of his one-year power. Instead, he was traded to the Yankees for only Yangervis Solarte and Rafael De Paula, hit a walk-off single in his first game as a Yankee and proved he’s a good defensive third baseman, who knows how to get on base.

Not only that, but Headley happened to be an impending free agent in the same season that Alex Rodriguez was suspended a full season for PEDs and the Yankees had to go after Headley in the offseason and he got himself a four-year, $52 million deal. Timing is everything and for Headley, his timing has been perfect. Now all he needs to do is play the way he did for the Yankees in 58 games last year for a full season this year.

Number 18, Didi Gregorius, Number 18
Everyone talked about David Robertson having to fill Mariano Rivera’s shoes, well Didi Gregorius has to fill the shoes of Derek Jeter, which is a much taller order than that of a reliever. Hopefully everyone has accepted that Gregorius isn’t Jeter and will never be Jeter and there will never be another Jeter and that will make his transition from the Diamondbacks to the Yankees a little easier.

I have seen Gregorius play minimally during his 191 career games in the majors, but if his glove is as good as touted and his offense can mirror his 2013 season (.252/.332/.373) or if his offense starts to show signs of what he did in 260 Triple-A plate appearances last season (.310/.389/.447) then I have no problem with Didi being the future. Even without knowing what he is yet or what he will become, he’s a better option than watching Stephen Drew or Brendan Ryan become the First Shortstop Since Fourth Grade since we already know what they are.

Number 13, Alex Rodriguez, Number 13
After the initial nonsense of A-Rod’s every move, swing and spit was reported on by the Yankees beat reporters this spring, A-Rod sort of flew under the radar the last few weeks, and that’s why I didn’t put him farther up on the list. I want A-Rod to fly under the radar. I want him to just go about his business and play baseball and not get caught up in the off-the-field nonsense and focus on hitting A-Bombs.

So far he has succeeded at every obstacle since being reinstated whether it be producing on the field, handling the media, dealing with the front office and interacting with the fans. The last step is being productive once the games count and I’m not worried at all about A-Rod this season.

Number 11, Brett Gardner, Number 11
Last year, thanks to a barrage of four home runs in three games in Texas from July 28-30, Gardner thought he was going to be the power hitter the Yankees were lacking. But instead of thinking he had a few good swings against bad Rangers pitching in the late-July Texas heat, Gardner seemed to change his approach at the plate to that of a power hitter.

On Aug. 1, Gardner was hitting .283/.356/.460. The average and on-base were right where you like them for Gardner, and while the slugging was impressive, it’s certainly not needed for Gardner. He finished the season hitting .256/.327/.422 as he completely fell apart over the last two months of the season.

Gardner needs to get back to doing anything he can to get on base and use his speed on the bases. I’m not stupid enough to think he might be return to being the prolific base stealer he was in 2010 and 2011 and not the timid runner who can’t read a pickoff move he was in 2013 and 2014, but I expect him to get back over 30 stolen bases and be dangerous when he reaches first.

(Editor’s Note: These next three Yankees are all equally ranked and that’s because at least two of the three need to bounce back and have productive seasons.)

Number 25, Mark Teixeira, Number 25
As the Editor’s Note said, Teixeira is equal to Beltran and McCann, but I’m going to list Teixeira first, so he is farther away from the top of the list and being the most important.

I have no expectations for Mark Teixeira. He hit .216 last year and missed time with the following injuries: hamstring, wrist, rib cage, knee, lat, tired legs, light-headness and pinky. This spring he was hit by a pitch and I figured it would land him on the 15-day disabled list to start the season.

Here are the Official Gluten-Free Mark Teixeira First Injury of 2015 Odds:

Wrist -350
Hamstring -220
Knee -180
Lat -120
Oblique +225
Tired Legs +400
Other +500

Number 36, Carlos Beltran, Number 36
Carlos Beltran is one year removed from hitting 24 home runs and two years removed from hitting 32. The last time he didn’t hit at least 22 home runs in a full season was when he hit 16 in his first season with the Mets (2005), which could have been him trying to live up to and prove his his $119 million contract since he hit 41 the following year. So there is reason to believe he will bounce back this year, except for the whole part about him turning 38 on April 24 and having had elbow surgery in the offseason. But let’s forget about that for now.

Beltran should have been a Yankee nine years ago when he would have been 27 on Opening Day. This would have been the Yankees lineup on that Opening Day (which was really an Opening Night with Randy Johnson against David Wells and the Red Sox on Sunday Night Baseball):

1. Derek Jeter, SS
2. Alex Rodriguez, 3B (I hit A-Rod second in this lineup because Joe Torre had him hit second in the actual lineup in the game.)
3. Carlos Beltran, CF
4. Gary Sheffield, RF
5. Hideki Matsui, LF
6. Jorge Posada, C
7. Jason Giambi, 1B (Yes, Giambi hit seventh in the actual lineup, but that’s because he was pretty worthless at this point before he magically had a resurgence in the middle of the season.)
8. Bernie Williams, DH
9. Tony Womack, 2B (Ah, Tony Womack. Thankfully Robinson Cano became a Yankee one month later.)

Can we get a redo and sign Beltran instead of trading for Johnson and signing Carl Pavano and Jaret Wright? And if we can do a redo, can we go back to 2004 first and sign Vladimir Guerrero instead of Gary Sheffield?

Number 34, Brian McCann, Number 34
Because the Yankees’ 2013 Opening Day catcher was Francisco Cervelli, I wrote this about McCann in last year’s Order of Importance:

I might be the biggest Brian McCann fan in the world and he hasn’t played in a single game for the Yankees yet. That’s how excited I am for the Brian McCann era and the state of catching for the Yankees. And McCann’s importance in the middle of the lineup and behind the plate is tied to the fact that the person who would replace him is … Francisco Cervelli.

I’m not exactly the biggest McCann fan in the world anymore after he struggled for most of 2014 and finished with a .286 on-base percentage.

The Yankees need either Teixeira and Beltran (not likely) or Teixeira and McCann (more likely) or Beltran and McCann (most likely) to stay healthy and put up true middle-of-the-order numbers this season. If two of those three don’t hit, then the embarrassing offensive seasons from the 2013 and 2014 Yankees might be forgotten with what we could be in for this season.

Number 52, CC Sabathia, Number 52
Sabathia had been No. 1 on this list for every year I had done this, but he’s lost the title. He made only eight starts last year and only two of the eight were good. Sabathia underwent knee surgery that at times was reported to possibly be the end of his career, but he’s back and he’s making $23 million this year whether he pitches like he did from 2009-2012 or how he did in 2013 and 2014.

Sabathia’s importance will drastically change if the starters in front of him can’t stay healthy and the Yankees need him to become the ace he once was again. Unfortunately, if the Yankees need to rely on Sabathia to carry them through the season, the season is over.

Number 48, Andrew Miller, Number 48
It’s scary that Miller is going to wear Number 48, since that will give me nightmares since Boone Logan, Phil Coke, Wayne Franklin, Kyle Farnsworth, Paul Quantrill and Matt Thornton all wore 48. Not exactly the best number choice for your newly-acquired left-handed setup man or closer.

I’m not worried about Miller at all. Usually I worry about new Yankees, especially free-agent signings, but when it comes to Miller, he was successful in Boston and Baltimore and every interview I have watched of him makes me feel like nothing rattles him. He seems and appears calm, cool and collected and when you lose your homegrown closer for a free-agent reliever getting $36 million, well he better be those things.

Normally, you wouldn’t see a non-closer reliever this high, but the Yankees’ rotation is such a question mark that they are going to need their bullpen to shorten games as much as possible and Miller will be a big part of that.

Number 68, Dellin Betances, Number 68
Betances is likely to be the closer over Miller, even though I wish Girardi would scrap the idea of a closer and use the two in whatever situation best suits them whether that’s in the sixth inning of the ninth innings. Sometimes games need to be saved in the seventh inning and not with a two-run lead and the 7-8-9 hitters due up in the ninth inning.

The reports of Betances’ diminished velocity and the earned runs in spring training are worrisome, but then again, it’s spring training and his 2014 season should have been enough to give him the benefit of the doubt when it comes to worrying about his performance. I trust Betances and trust him to be the closer.

Number 22, Jacoby Ellsbury, Number 22
Ellsbury got a free pass for last season because he was considered the “best” hitter on a team full of bad hitters, which isn’t exactly something to be proud of. I wasn’t a fan of signing Ellsbury and certainly wasn’t a fan of using the money that should have been for Robinson Cano to sign a 30-year-old center fielder to a seven-year, $153 million contract. But unfortunately, I can’t go back in time and give Brian Cashman the wrong phone number for Ellsbury’s agent, so I’m going to have to live with it.

And since I’m going to have to live with it, Ellsbury needs to be better. Maybe having a set place in the lineup and not being asked to be the No. 3 hitter a team that has A-Rod, Teixeira and McCann will help stabilize his consistency and make him the player he was in Boston.

There are only three non-question marks or unknowns on this team and they are Ellsbury, Gardner and Headley. You pretty much know what you’re going to get from those three whereas everyone else is either a health or production concern.

Number 35, Michael Pineda, Number 35
Last year, Pineda was ranked 14th out of 14 and that was because I didn’t know how he would pitch or if he would ever pitch for the Yankees. Well, he pitched and pitched incredibly until he loaded his neck up with pine tar and ended up on the DL for most of the season.

After his 2014 comeback and his outstanding spring, I have ridiculously high expectations for Pineda. He just needs to stay healthy. That’s it. He has only pitched 76 1/3 innings in the major in the last three years and now he’s going to be asked to give the Yankees a full season of starts and somewhere around 200 innings. It’s a lot to ask of someone with the injury history he has, but the Yankees don’t have a choice. They decided to go into this season (like they did the last two seasons) needing to hit one massive parlay to reach the postseason and Pineda is the second biggest piece of that parlay.

Number 19, Masahiro Tanaka, Number 19
At the end of Good Will Hunting, Ben Affleck’s character (Chuckie Sullivan) tells Matt Damon’s character (Will Hunting), “You know what the best part of my day is? The ten seconds before I knock on the door ’cause I let myself think I might get there, and you’d be gone. I’d knock on the door and you just wouldn’t be there. You just left.”

You know what the best part of my day is? Every day when I sign online or go on Twitter or turn on the TV or the radio or check my phone and I don’t hear bad news about Masahiro Tanaka’s right arm.

Tanaka and Pineda are the 2015 Yankees. The success of this season and making sure the Yankees don’t miss the playoffs for a third straight time lies in the health of those two. If they stay healthy, the Yankees have the best 1-2 punch in the AL East. If they don’t, the Yankees don’t have a season.

Blogs • MLB • Opening Day • Yankees

Apr 2, 2015

2015 MLB Over/Under Wins

The baseball season starts on Sunday night, so it’s time to take a look at the win totals for the 2015 and pick five overs and five unders.

The 2015 season begins on Sunday night in Chicago and the real season begins on Monday afternoon in the Bronx. With only a few days separating us from the start of a new season, it’s time to look at the win totals and pick five overs and five unders.

OVERS

San Francisco Giants – 82
I realize this is an odd-numbered year and that means that the Giants are likely to miss the playoffs and then bounce back and win the World Series next year the way they did in 2010, 2012 and 2014.

The Giants did lose Pablo Sandoval to the Red Sox where he is in line to become Carl Crawford 2.0 with handling the pressure and dealing with the media and listening to insane baseball fans that go along with playing in Boston. But they traded for Casey McGehee to play third and have Matt Cain back after he missed the second half of last season. Even with the NL West getting some depth with the Padres changing their entire team to compete with the Dodgers, the Giants will still be in the postseason mix for a wild-card spot and they will be better than two games over .500.

New York Yankees – 82.5
The last time the Yankees won less than 83 games was in 1992 when they won 76 games. That season was also the last time they finished under .500.

The 2013 Yankees won 85 games with these players playing the most games at each position:

C – Chris Stewart
1B – Lyle Overbay
2B – Robinson Cano
3B – Jayson Nix
SS – Eduardo Nunez
LF – Vernon Wells
CF – Brett Gardner
RF – Ichiro Suzuki
DH – Travis Hafner

The 2014 Yankees won 84 games with Jacoby Ellsbury leading the team with a .271 average, 40-year-old Ichiro playing 143 games, Brian Roberts, Kelly Johnson and Stephen Drew combining for 730 plate appearances, Masahiro Tanaka making only 20 starts, Michael Pineda making only 13 and Vidal Nuno making the fifth most starts on the team (14) despite being traded on July 6.

For as bad as the 2013 and 2014 seasons went for the Yankees with injuries and poor production, they still covered this number, and they will again in 2015.

New York Mets – 83
This is a dangerous pick. The Mets haven’t won at least 83 games since 2008 (89-73) and the hype train surrounding this team because of their starting pitching is so out of control it rivals that of the Cubs, who have had five straight fifth-place finishes.

The Mets’ rotation isn’t what it was projected to be without Zack Wheeler, but it’s still one of the strongest in the league and with Matt Harvey back, with a full season of Jacob deGrom and an improved offense, the Mets are clearly more than four wins better than they were last year at 79-83.

I don’t think the Mets are necessarily a playoff team the way everyone else has been so quick to believe, but they will be in contention for at least the second wild-card spot because as the Yankees have proved the last two years, you just have to not completely suck to be in the mix until even late September.

San Diego Padres – 84
The Padres weren’t effing around this offseason. They changed their entire outfield by trading for Matt Kemp, Justin Upton and Wil Myers and signed James Shields to a four-year deal to give them the deepest rotation in the NL West. If you look at the 77-win 2014 Padres and change their most used outfielders of Seth Smith, Cameron Maybin and Will Venable to Kemp, Upton and Myers and add Shields into their rotation in place of Eric Stults, who lost 17 games, then this team not only covers the 84, but they are a playoff team.

It’s weird to think about how bad the AL East has become and how much better the NL Wast has become.

Los Angeles Dodgers – 92.5
This number can be changed to 72.5 for the Los Angeles Dodgers without Clayton Kershaw. Kershaw won 21 games last year in only 27 starts and after what he has done the last four years, you can just go ahead and put him down for (at least) 20 wins this season, which means the rest of the team needs to find a way to 73 games and that shouldn’t be hard.

The Dodgers won 94 games in 2014 without Kershaw for all of April, with just two starters pitching full seasons (Zack Greinke and Dan Haren), A.J. Ellis hitting .191 in 347 plate appearances and having a group of untrustworthy middle relievers. They did stupidly trade Matt Kemp within the division to San Diego, sent Dee Gordon to Miami and lost Hanley Ramirez to free agency, but they added Jimmy Rollins and Howie Kendrick and bolstered their rotation by signing Brandon McCarthy and Brett Anderson. The Dodgers are a better team than they were last year.

UNDERS

Minnesota Twins – 73
The Twins are bad. Really, really, really bad. The Phillies have the lowest number (66.5) for this season, but I’m not sure the Phillies are the worst team in the league, it might be the Twins. It used to be a guaranteed win to take the Twins’ over, but those days are long gone.

The Twins won 70 games last season and that was with Phil Hughes somehow becoming the pitcher Yankees fans had been told since 2004 that he would become. Do I think Hughes is going to win 16 games again and walk only 16 in 209 2/3 innings and actually receive Cy Young votes? No. The Twins’ rotation did get some help with the addition of Ervin Santana, but aside from Joe Mauer, their lineup is a disaster and signing Torii Hunter, who will be 39 in July, isn’t going to turn back the clock to 2002, 2003 or 2004 for the Twins.

Tampa Bay Rays – 79
The Rays are going to be so bad that I feel bad that Evan Longoria’s production is going to be wasted in Tampa Bay. Well, as long as that production doesn’t come against the Yankees.

The 2014 Rays only won 77 games and they are a worse team this season. They aren’t going to get 23 starts and 11 wins from David Price. They no longer have Ben Zobrist to play every position. Wil Myers is in San Diego, Matthew Joyce is in Anaheim and Yunel Escobar is in Washington. Joe Maddon is in Chicago and Andrew Friedman is in Los Angeles. Jake McGee is coming off arthroscopic elbow surgery in December and new No. 1 starter Alex Cobb has forearm tendinitis. The Rays might want to add “Devil” back to their name because it might feel like 1998-2007 in Tampa Bay this season.

Detroit Tigers – 84
The Tigers won 90 games in 2014 and 18 of those were Max Scherzer’s, 15 were Rick Porcello’s and 15 were Justin Verlander’s. Scherzer is now in Washington, Porcello is in Boston and Verlander is beginning the season on the disabled list with triceps soreness. Sure, the Tigers will have a full season of David Price and he can fill the void of Scherzer leaving and if Anibal Sanchez stays healthy, he can take over for Porcello. But without Verlander healthy, and when healthy, pitching like 2009-2013 instead of 2014, the Tigers are in trouble.

Cleveland Indians – 85
The Indians earned a wild-card berth in 2013 and last season nearly earned another one because they spent September the last two years beating up on the White Sox and Twins to rack up late-season wins. Unfortunately for the Indians, only the Twins are a doormat for the AL Central now.

There seems to be a lot of over-the-top admiration for the 2015 Indians. The Indians won 85 games last year with 18 of those coming from Corey Kluber’s Cy Young season and no other Indians starter had double-digit wins.

The Indians’ rotation has been set as Kluber, Carlos Carrasco (54 career starts), Trevor Bauer (34 career starts), Zach McAllister (65 career starts) and T.J. House (18 career starts). There isn’t a whole lot of experience in that rotation and unless Kluber is turning into Cliff Lee in his late-20s, the Indians’ pitching can’t compete with the White Sox, Royals and Tigers. And the the Indians’ offense isn’t good enough to carry their pitching.

Boston Red Sox – 86
Everyone is drooling over the Red Sox’ lineup and how 2015 will be a “resurgence” for the team. The 2012 Red Sox won 69 games. The 2013 Red Sox hit the biggest parlay in the history of major sports an won 97 games. The 2014 Red Sox won 71 games. That’s two last-place finishes sandwiched around the most miraculous of miracles.

The 2015 Red Sox might have the best lineup in baseball, but their rotation is Clay Buchholz, Rick Porcello, Wade Miley, Justin Masterson and Joe Kelly. When Buchholz, who has only pitched three full seasons since entering the league in 2007 and who is coming off a season with a 5.34 ERA, is your Opening Day starter and No. 1, not even having the best lineup in baseball can make up for that.