Blogs – Page 164 – Keefe To The City

Sep 21, 2015

2015 Subway Series Diary: Citi Field

The most important Subway Series will always be the 2000 World Series, but after that, the three-game series this past weekend At Citi Field might be next on the list.

The most important Subway Series will always be the 2000 World Series, but after that, the three-game series this past weekend At Citi Field might be next on the list. This late in the season with the Yankees trying to pass the Blue Jays and the Mets trying to hold off the Nationals, there hasn’t been a Subway Series holding this much significance with this much at stake in a long, long time.

I decided to go to the diary format that I have used for the Subway Series in the past to look back at this weekend. Like always, just pretend like you’re reading this in one of those black-and-white Mead composition notebooks.

FRIDAY
I would have complained about Joe Girardi’s lineup on Friday night, but how can you complain about this lineup when the team has a 10-game lead in the AL East on Sept. 18?

Brett Gardner – CF
Chase Headley – 3B
Carlos Beltran – RF
Chris Young -LF
Greg Bird – 1B
John Ryan Murphy – C
Didi Gregroius – SS
Brendan Ryan – 2B
Masahiro Tanaka – P

With Alex Rodriguez, Brian McCann and Jacoby Ellsbury on the bench, that’s $59,142,857 worth of salary for 2015 on the bench for what is a crucial series in order to win the AL East. But that’s Joe Girardi for you. He doesn’t care if it’s April 18 or Sept. 18 or Game 1 of the ALDS, if there’s a left-handed pitcher on the mound, he’s going to tinker with his lineup as much as possible. It’s who he is.

It came as no surprise that this lineup scored one run in the first inning and then magically didn’t score for the rest of the game. It was painful to watch the Yankees load the bases in the ninth inning against Jeurys Familia, thanks to a walk from A-Rod and pinch-hit single from Ellsbury after the two start the game, only to lose because streaky Brett Gardner couldn’t get a hit and Chase Headley struck out, which he seems to do a lot.

The lineup was bad and the game was bad, but was the worst was after the game when Girardi said it was tough without A-Rod and McCann as if they were injured or suspended when it was Girardi’s decision to not play them. Ladies and gentlemen, Joe Girardi!

SATURDAY
The Yankees always win on my birthday, so I wasn’t surprised when they won again on my birthday.

But if you watched the game on FOX, you would never have known that the Yankees won the game and lit up Noah Syndergaard. The FOX broadcast just kept saying over and over how great Syndergaard was pitching and if only he hadn’t given up a first-inning, three-run home run to Carlos Beltran and a sixth-inning, two-run home run to Brian McCann then he would have pitched a shutout. Where was this kind of analysis for Game 7 of the 2004 ALCS? If Kevin Brown hadn’t given up a first-inning, two-run home run to David Ortiz and hadn’t loaded the bases before Javier Vazquez gave up the grand slam to Johnny Damon then the Yankees would have won the game!

Of course Joe Girardi went to Dellin Betances in the eighth inning of a 5-0 game after having gone to Justin Wilson in the seventh inning with the score the same. And of course he brought in James Pazos to start the ninth to get one out and then brought in Chris Martin thinking he would end the game cleanly only to have to bring in Andrew Miller to close out a 5-0 game with two on and two out as if a three-run home run would hurt them or as if a five-run home run exists.

SUNDAY
The Blue Jays lost to the Red Sox on Saturday night and Sunday afternoon, so the Yankees deficit in the AL East was down to 3 entering Sunday Night Baseball.

When CC Sabathia gave up back-to-back doubles to start the game, I was thankful for football season starting, so I could always resort to Sunday Night Football if the game got out of hand. Fortunately, it didn’t.

Future (most likely) Yankee Matt Harvey comes to pitch when he goes against the Yankees. After shutting them down in April when he allowed two earned runs over 8 2/3 innings at Yankee Stadium. You know he feels like he is auditioning each time he pitches against the Yankees and with the Mets looking to wrap up the NL East and the Yankees trying to stay in the AL East race, you knew he would come to pitch on national TV in primetime.

When the Yankees went down in order in the first, I thought he might pitch a perfect game. After Chase Headley walked in the second inning, I thought he would pitch a no-hitter. When Brett Gardner singled with two outs in the third, I was able to breathe a sigh of relief. However, I figured the Yankees would go the entire game without scoring and blow the opportunity the Blue Jays gave them with back-to-back losses. But then Matt Harvey’s innings limit took over. Sandy Alderson told Buster Olney on ESPN during the fourth inning that the fifth inning would be Harvey’s last and that’s when I knew the Yankees could win the game.

I don’t really understand the Matt Harvey/Scott Boras/Sandy Alderson innings situation. Harvey isn’t a free agent until after the 2018 season, so it’s not like he’s on the brink of a nine-figure contract. He needs to stay healthy for the rest of this season and next season and the season after that and the season after that. I understand that this is his first year following surgery, but there’s no proof that him pitching a certain amount of innings this season or next season or any season is going to be prevent him from re-injuring his elbow the same way there was no way to know he would injure it the first time. But what I don’t get is how the player and his agent aren’t on the same page as the team and clearly haven’t been all season. Did Matt Harvey tell Scott Boras to enforce this limit? Did Scott Boras advise Matt Harvey not to go past the limit? Did Scott Boras change a limit that was already agreed upon with the Mets? Is Matt Harvey really going to shut himself down the way Stephen Strasburg did in 2012, which might have cost the Nationals a championship?

I could care less if Harvey pitches again this season or in the postseason. The only time I will care how often or how much Harvey pitches is if he one day plays for the Yankees. All I care about is the Yankees winning, and for now, Harvey helped them do that on Sunday night by coming out of that game.

ESPN continued to talk about Harvey as if he’s Clayton Kershaw while the Yankees continued to pour it on against the Mets’ bullpen, which will be their downfall in the postseason. Four runs in the sixth, one run in the seventh and five more runs in the eighth and in a game they could barely get a hit in for five innings, the Yankees won 11-2 and won the 2015 Subway Series 4-2.

When I woke up on Monday morning, I expected the city to be different since the Mets had apparently taken it back despite losing both legs of the Subway Series and watching their franchise ace come out of a game after five innings on Sunday Night Baseball. I thought I would get an email or a phone call to let me know the Mets had taken back the city, but I got nothing. The Mets and their fans are still and always will be the little brother.

Blogs • Email Exchanges

Sep 18, 2015

Giants Already in Must-Win Mode Against Falcons

The Giants’ Week 1 disaster has them looking at a potential must-win game in Week 2. The one problem with that is Julio Jones and Roddy White are coming to East Rutherford.

The Giants’ Week 1 disaster has them looking at a potential must-win game in Week 2. Sure, it might sound crazy to have a must-win game in Week 2, but after the way the last two season’s spiraled out of control early, the Giants have to be better on Sunday. The one problem with that is Julio Jones and Roddy White are coming to East Rutherford.

With the Falcons coming to MetLife for the Giants’ home opener, Dave Choate of The Falcoholic joined me to talk about the team’s decline over the last two seasons, the firing of Mike Smith and hiring of Pat Quinn and whether or not the criticism of Matt Ryan is fair.

Keefe: Three seasons ago, the Falcons had a 17-0 lead in the NFC Championship Game over the 49ers before eventually losing 28-24. I remember the game clearly because I had a 10-to-1 parlay on the Falcons and Ravens to win the championship games that day, but I’m sure you remember it even better.

After back-to-back first-round losses, it looked like the Falcons would finally overcome their postseason problems over the last 13 years and return to the Super Bowl for the first time since 1998. It didn’t work out and the Falcons followed it up with a 4-12 season in 2013 and a 6-10 season last year.

From being the No. 1 seed in the NFC and so close to getting to the Super Bowl only to become a third-place team in the NFC South, what happened to the Falcons over the last two years since their meltdown?

Choate: It was a lot of things at once. Mike Smith was a capable, even-keeled coach who had trouble when things started to go awry. Injuries hit, the team couldn’t get a ground game going, and too many players were unmitigated disasters on defense.

With the team feeling its lack of depth due to misses in the draft and free agency, Smith making a handful of very poor decisions that turned the fanbase against him, and the Week 17 collapse against the Panthers, ownership felt it was time to make a change. We’ll hope that bears fruit.

Keefe: After being on the hot seat for several seasons, Mike Smith was finally fired by the Falcons in December following seven seasons as head coach and just one playoff win. He was Coach of the Year in his first season (2008) with the Falcons and the team had two first-place finishes and three second-place finishes, but 2013 and 2014 were too much to overcome.

Now the team has former Seahawks defensive coordinator Dan Quinn as the team’s head coach and he won in his debut in Week 1 against the Eagles.

Were you a Smith fan and were you in agreement with his firing? Was Quinn your choice to replace him?

Smith: I always liked Smith, and I felt bad he was run out of town and had his otherwise sterling reputation tarred by the 2012 NFC Championship Game and the 2013 and 2014 seasons. That said, it was tough to argue with the idea that this team needed a change, given how poorly they played and how thoroughly everyone locally had turned on the team.

Quinn was probably my second or third choice to replace Smith (I liked Todd Bowles and Rex Ryan), but he’s proven to be a terrific hire thus far. Admittedly, it’s early.

Keefe: Matt Ryan had an impressive start to his career, but like any other quarterback, who hasn’t been part of a championship team or a team that has reached the Super Bowl, the lazy rhetoric that he can’t win the big game has started to be associated with him. Even if he has been asked to lead less-than-stellar teams in recent years, the attention always comes back to the quarterback though Ryan’s stats for each of his first seven seasons are pretty much identical.

Even as the team struggled the last two seasons, Ryan still had his usual seasons, which would have been good enough to win on many other all-around teams.

Are you a Ryan fan? Is the questioning of his big-game play fair?

Choate: The questioning of his mistakes is fair. Ryan can sometimes take risks and make sloppy throws that lead to turnovers, and that’s always going to hang over his head until he stops doing it entirely. It’s still relatively rare that his mistakes cost the Falcons the game, though, and I do think he takes more criticism than is warranted given his overall level of performance

Overall, I think Ryan is a top eight quarterback in the NFL, one of the league’s most dependable performers, and that it’s very possible he’s heading for his best year ever. I’m excited to see what he’ll do in 2015.

Keefe: Last week I had to worry about Dez Bryant before dehydration and a broken foot removed him from the game. This week, I have to worry about the two-headed monster of Julio Jones and Roddy White, but luckily I don’t have to worry about the Giants playing them in the Georgia Dome.

The Giants have a two-headed monster of their own in Odell Beckham Jr. and Victor Cruz, but Cruz didn’t play last week and won’t play this week and with Beckham missing the beginning of last season and Cruz missing most of last season, the two haven’t even played two full games together.

As a Falcons fan, you have had to deal with both Jones and White missing time in recent seasons. So I turn to you to ask how frustrating is it to know how could your offense can be when healthy, but isn’t healthy?

Choate: Extremely frustrating. The 2013 season was ruined by Julio Jones’ injury and the offensive line falling apart, and knowing that you’re without some of your top playmakers makes every loss and middling performance agonizing.

I hate to tell you this, but you’re headed for some unhappy days.

Keefe: If there’s a such thing as a must-win game in Week 2, this is it for the Giants. After blowing last week’s opener in Dallas, the Giants need to rebound before hosting the Redskins on Thursday Night Football. The good news is the Falcons are a different team when they play away from Georgia Dome and outside. The bad news is the Giants don’t usually play well at home.

For the Falcons, they had a nice Week 1 win over the Eagles as a home underdog, and have a tough start to their season with the Giants this week on the road, in Dallas next week and then home again the Texans the week after.

What do you expect to happen on Sunday?

Choate: I think a desperate Giants team at home is dangerous, and I fear the Falcons will fall to them in a fairly close game. My expectation is a 27-21 Giants win, with the Falcons suffering a little defensive pullback and some struggles playing outside of the Georgia Dome.

I do think it’ll be close, either way, and I hope the Falcons can pull one out.

Blogs • Giants

Sep 17, 2015

NFL Week 2 Picks

It’s hard to know what’s real and what’s not when you only have one week of results to go by and that’s what makes Week 2 the hardest week to pick in the season.

There isn’t an overreaction in the world greater than that after Week 1 in the NFL. After Week 1 we are led to believe that Peyton Manning is finished, Marcus Mariota is the best quarterback ever, the Seahawks’ NFC reign is over, Pete Carroll is an idiot … actually, that’s true … the Vikings are the worst team in football, Joe Flacco is the worst quarterback in the league, the Jets are back and it’s incredible that Eli Manning and Tom Coughlin won two Super Bowls … that might be true too.

Week 1 takes everything you think you know about football and takes all the opinions you made in the offseason and momentarily justifies or destroys them. It can completely change how you go about viewing and picking Week 2 and leave you in a deep state of devastation or financially ruined after the early games if you’re not careful. It’s hard to know what’s real and what’s not when you only have one week of results to go by and that’s what makes Week 2 the hardest week to pick in the season.

(Home team in caps)

KANSAS CITY -3 over Denver
Peyton Manning is lucky his defense bailed him out on Sunday against the Ravens, or the Broncos would be headed to Arrowhead at 0-1 and looking at a possible 0-2 start to the season.

The last two games Peyton has played have to be two of his, if not the worst, of his career. The home playoff debacle after a bye week last season was shocking and whatever he was doing in Week 1 against Baltimore was frightening. I don’t know if this is the Peyton we will see from now until he retires, but if it is, it’s going to be hard to back the Broncos this season.

Houston +3 over CAROLINA
Here’s what I said last week about the Texans:

I’m not sure how Bill O’Brien and Rick Smith came to the conclusion that Brian Hoyer should be the Texans’ starting quarterback over Ryan Mallett. To be fair, it’s not like he named Hoyer the starter over a clearly more talented player and the two likely have the same amount of ability. But did they watch Hoyer play for the Browns? If you’re looking for one touchdown, two interceptions and 227 yards then Hoyer is your guy because that’s what he is and because we know what he is, why not start Mallett? At least there is a chance he might be somewhat good or at least better than Hoyer.

Guess who’s the starting quarterback for the Texans this week? Ryan Mallett.

I was a little off on Hoyer’s game since he threw for 236 yards, one touchdown and only one interception, but if I knew that it was inevitable that he would lose his starting job, how could Bill O’Brien not know this? The Texans wasted one of 16 games last week in what was a very winnable home game and a game they lost by 7 despite Hoyer doing his absolute best to lose it. With the Texans’ defense, Mallett doesn’t even have to be great, he just has to be better than Hoyer, and that’s not hard to do.

NEW ORLEANS -10 over Tampa Bay
Ah, the Saints in the Superdome. There are a few things that you can can count on when picking NFL games like always taking the points in NFC East matchups, always taking the points in Steelers-Ravens games and always taking the Saints at home in the Superdome to cover any spread. There might not be any guarantees in gambling, but those are the three things you can actually feel confident about.

Jameis Winston gave Marcus Mariota a headstart on everyone thinking the Buccaneers drafted the wrong guy No. 1 and in the 30 for 30 about the two in 20 years, there is a lot of video from Week 1 of 2015 to sort through. After this week’s loss in New Orleans, the Bucs go to Houston and by then will be 0-3 and the countdown clock until Lovie Smith’s firing will be closing in on zero.

PITTSBURGH -6 over San Francisco
The 49ers will only go as far as Carlos Hyde takes them. I don’t think Colin Kaepernick is very good since he hasn’t been able to adjust to the league after it adjusted to him, making Anquan Boldin and Torrey Smith and Vernon Davis non-factors, which had made the offense revolve around Hyde’s legs. The Steelers had 10 days off and coming off a loss and having their home opener and having the opportunity to prepare to shut down Hyde is a recipe for disaster for the 49ers, whose over/under win total was 6.5. This is going to be one of those 9.5 losses.

MINNESOTA -2.5 over Detroit
When it comes to Week 1 overreactions, the idea that the Vikings might be the worst team in football is at the top of the list. A bad game on the road in San Francisco against a team everyone had left for dead despite being two-plus years removed from the Super Bowl and one-plus year removed from the NFC Championship Game isn’t going to end the Vikings’ season. There’s no way an offense with Teddy Bridgewater, Adrian Peterson, Mike Wallace and Charles Johnson can be as bad as they were in San Francisco, and there’s no way the Vikings defense is going to let someone embarrass them again the way that Carlos Hyde did in his debut as a starting running back.

BUFFALO +1.5 over New England
After the Giants-Falcons game, this is the game I care the most about this week. Rex Ryan and his 1-0 Bills that have everyone talking because they routed the fraud Colts against Bill Belichick and his 1-0 Patriots that have everyone talking because whenever they win a game for the rest of eternity, there’s going to be some report that cheating might have been involved.

The Rex Ryan Bills looked exactly like the Rex Ryan Jets last week, and that’s not such a bad thing for going up against the Patriots because the Rex Ryan Jets had as much success as anyone not named the New York Football Giants against the Patriots in recent years. A Bills win will have Rex running his mouth as well as he ever did in New York and a Patriots loss might finally get some of the talk about the air pressure in footballs, the frequencies on headsets, the taping of other team’s sidelines and all the other rumored cheating ways of the Patriots to potentially fade. I can dream.

Arizona -2.5 over CHICAGO
Here’s what I said last week about the Bears:

This season I have made a pledge to myself to go hard after the Bears. I’m not getting suckered into thinking they can or will be good and I’m not changing my mind on them.

And I know exactly what the Bears are trying to do me right now. They lost a close game 31-23 to the Packers at home (even though they scored a very late touchdown to make it an eight-point game) and they want me to think, “Hey, the Bears nearly covered against the NFC favorites and now they’re home again against a much lesser offense giving points? Why not take the Bears?” In the past I would have fallen for this trap game, picked the Bears and then watched Jay Cutler throw the game away despite having two stud wide receivers (one of them is now with the Jets), a top running back and a great receiving tight end. Not this year. I’m not falling for the Bears this year.

CLEVELAND +2 over Tennessee
When Johnny Manziel entered Sunday’s game against the Jets and immediately threw a touchdown pass to take the lead, the thought of the Johnny Football era taking off at the hands of the Jets made me smile and feel warm inside. But after that play, Manziel looked exactly like the guy we saw last season, who couldn’t win the starting quarterback job over Brian Hoyer, and the Jets went on to blow out the Browns.

No matter what happens in this game, we all lose. If the Titans win, Marcus Mariota is 2-0 and the best quarterback in history. If the Browns win, it’s going to be Johnny Football all day and all night for the next week. I think I would rather hear about Manziel than Mariota, but since I have been a full-time passenger on the Johnny Football bandwagon, a home loss to the Titans, will have me jumping ship for the foreseeable future.

San Diego +3.5 over CINCINNATI
It’s the Battle of Which Team Has Screwed Me Over More Over the Years. I don’t really know who is worse in this situation when it comes to having to back either Philip Rivers or Andy Dalton, but like the Bears, I made a promise to myself to stay away from the Bs this season: the Bears, Bengals and Browns. I have given myself one mulligan for this season, and unfortunately, my wanting Johnny Football to work out led me to use that mulligan this week to pick the Browns. If the Browns win, I retain my Bs mulligan and can use it on a future game, so maybe at some point I will pick the Bengals, but it won’t be today.

St. Louis -4 over WASHINGTON
I was more than scared when the Dolphins were effing around in Washington last week and failing to cover for most of the game against the Redskins. But maybe the Dolphins looking like the Dolphins I feared they might be in 2015 was a blessing in disguise. Sure, everyone who picked them to cover and who picked them in their survivor pools had to sweat out the win, but their seven-point win helped make this week’s line lower against the impressive Rams defense. So thank you, Dolphins for doing just enough to win to make Week 2 easier. I know that why’s you underperformed so greatly and not because you’re once again going to define “average NFL team” this season.

NEW YORK GIANTS -1.5 over Atlanta
Can you have a must-win game in Week 2? That’s a question I have written about the Giants for the now the fifth straight season. After Sunday night’s disaster that left me speechless and wondering if I even wanted to be a part of the 2015 NFL season or if I ever wanted to watch football again, I actually got over Tom Coughlin’s clock management and Eli Manning’s score management fairly fast. Sure, I spun the situation into the fact that the Giants were supposed to lose in Dallas anyway and that they just need to split the season series with the Cowboys, so they can beat them at MetLife in October, but that’s what fans of losing teams do: they make excuses. I don’t want to have to make any excuses this week. The Falcons outside of the Georgia Dome are very much like the Saints outside of the Superdome, and with the Redskins on Thursday Night Football in Week 3, I should be writing in Week 4 about the 2-1 Giants.

Baltimore -6.5 over OAKLAND
The Ravens went to Denver as 5-point underdogs and lost 19-13 despite Joe Flacco throwing for 117 yards, no touchdowns and two interceptions. The Raiders, meanwhile, lost Derek Carr for most of their game against the Bengals and lost 33-13. There’s just no way I can pick the Raiders here after picking them last week and feel even the slightest bit confident that they will cover against the Ravens. There’s no way at all.

Miami -6.5 over JACKSONVILLE
I made the mistake of backing the Jaguars in Week 1 and thinking they might actually turn it around this season. They still might since there are 15 games left, but they also put up nine points at home against the Panthers, and I’m just not ready to continue to have confidence in the Jaguars. I’d much rather back the overhyped and definitely-going-to-underachieve Dolphins.

Dallas +5.5 over PHILADELPHIA
The best-case scenario for this game is that both teams beat the crap out of each and tie. If the Cowboys win, they will be 2-0 and 2-0 in the division. If the Eagles win, they will be 1-1 and so will the Cowboys, and if the Giants win, the whole division (not including the Redskins since they don’t count) will be 1-1. Having everyone be 1-1 is better for the Giants’ playoff chances to have the entire NFC East be clustered. I will be rooting for the Eagles, but knowing these teams and NFC East games as a whole, it will be decided by three or less.

GREEN BAY -3.5 over Seattle
I was in Seattle when these two teams played in the NFC Championship Game and I wanted the Seahawks to win because I thought they posed a bigger threat to the Patriots in the Super Bowl. I was right until Pete Carroll went and ruined the Super Bowl and the entire offseason. Eff, Seattle and eff the 12s. Sunday, I’m a Cheesehead.

New York Jets +7 over INDIANAPOLIS
It’s nice that once again the Jets got a cupcake game in Week 1 and their fans think the Jets are back and the King of New York and all that. It’s even nicer that they have to go on the road to Indianapolis and face the Colts, who were embarrassed last week and will be looking to go out of their way to erase their awful offensive performance in Buffalo. I think the Jets will cover, but it’s more important to me that the Colts win.

Last week: 9-6-1

Blogs • Email Exchanges • Yankees

Sep 11, 2015

A Seven-Game Yankees-Blue Jays Series for the Division

The Yankees and Blue Jays are separated by 1 1/2 games and over the last 25 games the two teams play each other seven times. One team will win the AL East and the other will play in the one-game playoff.

The Yankees and Blue Jays are separated by 1 1/2 games in the standings and over the last 24 games of the season, the two teams play each other seven times. One team will win the AL East and the other will play in the one-game playoff.

With the Yankees and Blue Jays meeting for a crucial four-game series, Tom Dakers of Bluebird Banter joined me to talk about the Blue Jays’ run since the trade deadline, Josh Donaldson’s incredible MVP campaign, R.A. Dickey’s unbeaten streak, the return of Marcus Stroman and if the Blue Jays will win the East.

Keefe: The last time we talked the Yankees were 62-51 and the Blue Jays were 64-52. I said the two teams were set to begin a seven-week battle for the AL East with the loser going to the one-game playoff. Since then, the Yankees have gone 15-10 and the Blue Jays have gone 15-8.

Over their last 12 games, the Yankees have gone 8-4. Unfortunately, the Blue Jays have also gone 8-4, so the Yankees haven’t made up a single game and still trail the Blue Jays by one game in the loss column.
I understand the Blue Jays are a magical run and have rarely lost since the trade deadline, but this is out of control. Every time I check the Blue Jays score I expect to see them having scored 10 runs and am shocked when they don’t.

Do you believe this run is happening?

Dakers: It has been a fun month and a half. The Jays have been good all season, but their record has been far short of their Pythagorean Record all season, so we hoped that, at some point they, there would be a correction. Well, we got it.

When you look at the team, you do wonder if they will ever lose again, but no matter how good the team, slumps happen. The nice part is, no one guy has to carry the team. In the past, if Bautista and Encarnacion were to slump, we wouldn’t win. Now Donaldson or Tulowitzki or even Chris Colabello can take up the slack.

Adding Price, Tulowitzki, Revere, Hawkins and Lowe added some life to the team, made the team think that they can win every game and well as filling the weak spots on the team. Jose Reyes’ defense was not good enough, he showed little range and had this ability to make an error at the worst possible moment. Tulowitzki’s bat hasn’t been what we hoped, but it’s nice to have a shortstop with real range. And Ben Revere is much better defensively than Chris Colabello in left. David Price gives us the Ace we really needed. And adding Lowe and Hawkins to the pen has given us a nice deep pen.

Keefe: Does Josh Donaldson ever get out? He is hitting .307/.374/.592 this season with 37 home runs and 115 RBIs, but since July 29, he’s hitting .363/.434/.747 with 13 home runs and 47 RBIs in 38 games. He’s slugging .747! That’s insane. What’s even more insane is he is making $4.3 million this season. Stephen Drew is making $5 million.

I have been tweeting at Donaldson and Jose Bautista to remind them the bars in New York City stay open until a 4 a.m. in hopes that they will go on a bender this weekend and not perform well against the Yankees. Maybe they will listen.

What are you going to send Billy Beane to thank him for trading Donaldson to the Blue Jays?

Dakers: He can have my first born, or my right arm or really anything he wants. I have no idea what Beane was thinking. When you have one of the best players in the game, who is still under team control for several more seasons, you don’t trade him. I’ve always thought the way to build a team is to find those guys who are among the best in the game and build around them.

I liked Brett Lawrie, good player, Canadian, fun to watch on defense, but he’ll never be close to as good as Josh. The pitchers we gave up don’t look to be much better than back of the rotation types, so I really don’t understand where Beane thought he was getting fair value for Donaldson.

Add in that Donaldson seem to have the equal intensity to Jose Bautista (something I didn’t think was possible) he’s really helped give the team a “nothing short of winning is acceptable” attitude.

Keefe: The last time R.A. Dickey lost was on July 9 despite giving up two earned runs in seven innings. Since then he is 7-0 with a 2.68 ERA in 11 starts and the Blue Jays are 10-1 in those starts.
It seems like Dickey is finally pitching like the ace the Blue Jays thought he would be even though he no longer needs to be that guy with David Price in the rotation.

Are you impressed with R.A. Dickey this season?

Dakers: He’s had an up and down time of it. In his wins, he’s had an ERA of 2.39, in his losses his ERA is over 6. He seems to be very good or very bad, and there is little in between. He’s followed the same pattern in each of his 3 seasons as a Blue Jay, a poor first half (this year 3-10 with a 4.87 ERA and a good second half (7-0 with a 2.68 ERA).

I came into the season thinking that there was no way the Jays pick up his $12 million option for next season, figuring that, at 41, he’ll be reaching the age that even knuckleball pitchers have a hard time providing value. But if he continues to pitch like this, and we have a bit of a playoff run, they might prove me wrong.

Keefe: Of course Marcus Stroman is coming back to the Blue Jays’ rotation in time to face the Yankees. Why wouldn’t he?

What do you expect out of Stroman?

Dakers: I’m cautiously hopeful. I really didn’t expect him back this yeah but Stroman is someone you should never bet against. He’s got such a strong work ethic. I do imagine he could have a couple of rough starts, he’s only had two rehab starts (well in real games, he had some simulated games too), one very good, one not so good. In a perfect world, I’d like to see him get a couple more rehab starts, but then the minor league seasons are ending (and there isn’t all that much major league season left) so he gets thrown out there quicker than we would like.

The good news is that it was a knee injury, so he kept his throwing arm in shape all along. He’s been throwing hard in this rehab starts. I think, by playoff time, he’ll be the Marcus Stroman we saw last season. It is just a question of how quickly he gets there.

Keefe: If the Blue Jays win the AL East, what is your ALDS rotation?

For me it would be Price, Dickey, hopefully Stroman and Buehrle. If Stroman doesn’t prove ready, then move Buehrle up and put Marco Estrada in the 4-spot.

Keefe: And if they have to play in the one-game playoff, I’m guessing you’re going with David Price. But let’s say he’s unavailable, who do you turn to?

Dakers: If Dickey keeps pitching the way he is right now, it would have to be him. He’s averaged over 7 innings a start, his last three times out there, and has an ERA of just 2.08. But then, Marcus Stroman has a month to show that he’s as good as last year, if he can do that, it the job might be his.

But, I think he idea of trading for Price as to have him make a one-game playoff start. I’d hope they will make sure that he is ready for the game.

Blogs • Giants

Sep 10, 2015

NFL Week 1 Picks

I hate the end of summer and post-Labor Day means the days are only going to get shorter and the weather is only going to get colder and soon enough you won’t want to go outside. So here we go. For the next 22 weeks, there’s football.

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I hate the end of summer. I have seasonal depression, or at least I think I have seasonal depression and post-Labor Day means the days are only going to get shorter and the weather is only going to get colder and soon enough you won’t want to go outside. But I love that football is back tonight, the Giants begin their season in three days, the Yankees are headed to the postseason in some form and the Rangers’ season begins in 27 days. I guess there are some positives to fall.

The beginning of the football season gives every team and every fan a chance to believe in their team and in moments like this happening (that’s me in Boston after the Giants beat the Patriots in Super Bowl XLII. I might have had a few beers). That night I drank in celebration at a bar in Faneuil Hall in the heart of Boston watching the highlights of the game over and over and over and over until the bar kicked us out.

The next morning I woke up without any traces of a hangover and walked out onto Hanover Street, which looked like the opening scenes of Vanilla Sky or I Am Legend. There was hardly any people around and the handful of people I did see had a look of complete devastation across their face. I couldn’t have been happier. That’s what football can do.

I haven’t liked football for a while. The last time I enjoyed football was the second before Russell Wilson threw a pass intended for Ricardo Lockette that was intercepted by Malcolm Butler. Actually, the last time I liked football was the second before Pete Carroll decided to throw the ball on the goal line with the Super Bowl at stake and the best running back in the league on his team. The second before Carroll opened his mouth and suggested that play or agreed to that play was the last time I liked football.

Since that second, the Patriots went on to win the Super Bowl, ending a nine-season drought without a championship, Tom Brady became a four-time Super Bowl champion, Boston sports fans argued that Marshawn Lynch might have not gotten in the end zone from the 1, Darrelle Revis became a champion and the worst thing in the history of sports happened: Deflategate. If Carroll gives the ball to Lynch there, the Seahawks win the Super Bowl, the Patriots are once again losers on the biggest stage, Jermaine Kearse’s catch unseats David Tyree’s catch as the most improbable Super Bowl catch of all time and Deflategate doesn’t spiral out of control because no one cares if a non-championship team may or may not have altered the footballs. But none of that happened and instead for nearly eight months at one point of every day I saw or heard the word “Deflategate” some place.

I was in Seattle for the NFC Championship Game and I saw about two seconds of the AFC Championship Game. I had heard the score and didn’t need to witness the Patriots embarrassing the Colts a week after the Ravens couldn’t close them out. Later that night in the hotel room, my girlfriend showed me a tweet that the Patriots supposedly played with underinflated footballs. My first thought was, “I don’t even know what that means” since I simply didn’t understand if that was good or bad or how that could be an issue. I thought it was just some nonsensical report that would either be laughed at or forgotten. I went to sleep on Jan. 18 not knowing about how footballs are handled before each game, what the proper PSI levels are for footballs or that quarterbacks got to use their own personal footballs in a game. When I woke up on Jan. 19, that nonsensical report hadn’t been forgotten.

I still can’t believe that for nearly all of the 2015 calendar year (minus the 17 days before the AFC Championship Game), Deflategate has pretty much controlled the headlines. The idea that people could spend so much time talking about the air pressure in footballs, reading every piece of information from the investigation and suspension and appeal and listening to sports radio recycle the same mind-blowing opinions on the topic is actually insane. Trying to understand how this much time, attention, money and resources were used on trying to figure out how footballs were lacking the necessary air is like trying to understand why Joe Girardi will use Dellin Betances and Andrew Miller in a game the Yankees are winning by five runs, but not in a game they’re losing by one run or why How to Make it in America was cancelled after two seasons or trying to grasp something as complex as the universe. Deflategate makes my head hurt to think about.

Unfortunately, Deflategate will never go away. The word will always follow Tom Brady, Bill Belichick and the Patriots around just like Spygate has. The Brady/Belichick Patriots will always be the victims of a witch hunt to Patriots fans and cheaters to non-Patriots fans. Even though the D-word is here to say just like the S-word has stayed alive for the last eight years, on Thursday night we will all finally have something else to talk about: a real-life football game. That is, until the Patriots beat the Steelers, like they always do at Gillette Stadium. Then, we will all have to hear about how they cheated to win the season opener too.

Tonight begins a new NFL season and with that comes a new picks season and another 263 games to pick. Last season, I finished 129-130-4, losing the final game of the season, the Super Bowl, on the play that should have gotten Pete Carroll fired. That play motivated me to work hard this offseason and get in the best shape of my life and make sure this picks season doesn’t end the way the last one did.

So here we go. For the next 22 weeks, there’s football.

(Home team in caps)

NEW ENGLAND -7 over Pittsburgh
As a Giants fan, I have to question the Patriots’ so-called cheating tactics. Either they lost on purpose a few times to make it seem like they weren’t cheating the way you might get a few questions wrong on a test on purpose to not make it obvious. Or they are just the worst cheaters of all time.

If the Patriots were videotaping signal givers and stealing playbooks and breaking into hotel rooms for information, did they forget to do these things for some of the biggest games? After their Super Bowl win in 2001, they missed the playoffs in 2002. They won the Super Bowl in 2003 and 2004, but then they lost to Broncos in the playoffs in 2005, blew a 21-6 halftime lead to the Colts in the 2006 AFC Championship Game, blew the perfect season and lost Super Bowl XLII to the Giants, got run out of Gillette by the Ravens in 2010, were embarrassed by the Jets at home in 2011, lost against to the Giants in Super Bowl XLVI, were shut down by the Ravens in 2012 and got dominated by the Broncos in 2013 before winning the Super Bowl this year.

Like I said, the Patriots were either losing on purpose to keep things balanced or they just aren’t very good cheaters given all of the information they supposedly had, taped and stole. Or maybe they just weren’t doing anything that every other team was already doing? No, it can’t be that.

Green Bay -7 over CHICAGO
This season I have made a pledge to myself to go hard after the Bears. I’m not getting suckered into thinking they can or will be good and I’m not changing my mind on them. I don’t care if they start the season 5-0 or or 7-0 or go 10-0 or complete the perfect season. If they do any of those things, good for them, but I’m not changing my mind on the Bears.

HOUSTON -1 over Kansas City
I’m not sure how Bill O’Brien and Rick Smith came to the conclusion that Brian Hoyer should be the Texans’ starting quarterback over Ryan Mallett. To be fair, it’s not like he named Hoyer the starter over a clearly more talented player and the two likely have the same amount of ability. But did they watch Hoyer play for the Browns? If you’re looking for one touchdown, two interceptions and 227 yards then Hoyer is your guy because that’s what he is and because we know what he is, why not start Mallett? At least there is a chance he might be somewhat good or at least better than Hoyer.

NEW YORK JETS -3 over Cleveland
The Jets always seem to get a cupcake game in Week 1 even if there is supposedly no such thing in the NFL. Last season, the Jets opened at home against the Raiders. The year before they opened at home against the Buccaneers. The year before that they opened at home against the Bills. It’s like they are playing the equivalent of Alcorn State, Tennessee-Martin and Arkansas State in Week 1. The Jets seem to always win in Week 1 because they’re at home against a weak opponent, which is once again the case this season, and then the Jets are 1-0 and their fans start mapping out their route to a postseason berth and before you know it they’re 1-3 and trying to keep their season alive.

After this game, the Jets follow with at Indianapolis, home against Philadelphia and at Miami before their Week 5 bye. Todd Bowles better get his first win as Jets head coach against the Browns or he might not be getting it until Oct. 18 and Week 6 against Washington. That’s a long ways away and there’s a lot of time between now and then for Jets fans to buy billboards and fly planes over practice suggesting he be fired.

BUFFALO +3 over Indianapolis
I wouldn’t mind seeing the Bills do well and have a winning season and make the playoffs. The only problem with that is their quarterback is Tyrod Taylor. His backup is Matt Cassell. His back up is EJ Manuel. That’s a big problem to have, but so is not having a run defense, which the Colts still don’t have.

Miami -4 over WASHINGTON
This is the official survivor pool Week 1 pick for just about everyone. In a week in which there are many even-matched and coin-flip games, you can always count on the Redskins to give you a much-needed win to stay alive.

For the last few years, we have been hearing about how the Dolphins will challenge the Patriots in the AFC East and each time they have failed. This year, the Dolphins are supposed to be even better and once again challenge the Patriots and reach the postseason for the first time since 2008. If the Dolphins are as good and reliable as they are being hyped up to be then this line is incredibly low. Even if the Dolphins are an average team, this line is too low. Even if the Dolphins are in the bottom third or bottom fourth of teams in the league, this is line is still too low. That’s how bad the 2015 Redskins are.

JACKSONVILLE +3.5 over Carolina
The Game of the Week. Somewhere someone who isn’t a Jaguars fan or a Panthers fan is going to bet on this game and watch it in its entirety. Thank about that.

Seattle -4.5 over ST. LOUIS
The Seahawks and I are not on good terms. After I became an honorary Seahawks fan and a 12 for the Super Bowl they went on to blow a 10-point lead and blow the game to ruin my Super Bowl Sunday and the days that have followed since. I don’t know if I’ll ever be able to forgive them for the loss and I absolutely will never forgive Pete Carroll for his play call. But if the Seahawks (and Pete Carroll isn’t included in this) are going to try to win me back it’s going to be by consistently covering spreads week in and week out. Here’s their first chance at redemption.

ARIZONA -3 over New Orleans
We all know what happens when you take the Saints out of the Superdome. Now take them out of the Superdome without Jimmy Graham.

SAN DIEGO -3 over Detroit
These two teams are the same to me and this is the hardest game of the week to pick. I did trade Matthew Stafford for Eli Manning in fantasy football, so I have to root heavily against Stafford this season.

TAMPA BAY -3 over Tennessee
Jameis Winston vs. Marcus Mariota in Week 1. I’m surprised this hasn’t been sold as the “Peyton Manning vs. Tom Brady of the future”. If it were, Winston would be Manning would weapons like Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson and Mariota would be Brady with Kendall Wright and Harry Douglas to throw to. I’m thankful that the NFL Sunday Ticket is available to everyone this year, so that I don’t have to be forced to have the NFL Red Zone get stuck on this game since the only thing I would need or any non-Bucs and non-Titans fan would need from this game is the final score.

OAKLAND +3.5 over Cincinnati
I could care less about the NFL preseason. It’s baseball season until the Yankees either win the World Series or are eliminated and even if you don’t like baseball, there has to be something better to do with your time than watch meaningless preseason football games. The only crazier people in the world than those who watch preseason games are those who attend them. It’s not like spring training where you’re likely getting away from cold weather and enjoying the sun and watching a product that resembles what you see for 162 games in the summer.

The only thing I look for in preseason are finding out which key Giants were injured since it’s inevitable and videos of Andy Dalton throwing interceptions. And there’s only one thing more entertaining than Andy Dalton preseason interceptions and that’s Andy Dalton regular-season interceptions and once again there will be a lot of them.

DENVER -5 over Baltimore
Since I don’t watch preseason football, the last time I watched Peyton Manning play he was throwing wobbly passes as if he were trying to make a Nerf ball without seams spiral and the passes weren’t going to anyone. He finished that home playoff loss against the Colts at 26-of-46 for 211 yards and a touchdown despite coming off a bye, which momentarily made everyone think the Colts had a chance against the Patriots before they were blown out.

I have no idea what Manning will look like this season if he could have looked so bad against a bad defense with a trip to the AFC Championship Game on the line. I don’t think he would have come back if he were going to continue to play like that, so for now, I’m trusting that a healthier, yet older, Peyton Manning came back because he would be good enough to cover spreads once again.

New York Giants +6 over DALLAS
I’m overly confident in the Giants right now. I’m talking high levels of irrational confidence about a team that has gone 13-19 over the last two seasons and hasn’t made the playoffs in the the last three seasons. That could all change in one minute on Sunday night or even one play if Eli Manning opens the season with a first-play interception the way he did against the Cowboys in Week 1 on Sunday Night Football two years ago.

What scares me the most about the 2015 Giants isn’t the absurd amount of preseason injuries for the third straight year or the health of Victor Cruz or the absences of Jason Pierre-Paul or the offensive line or the secondary. What scares me the most is what Prince Amukamara said about this game by calling it a “must-win.”

“I could see everyone’s [butt] getting tight, everyone feeling like they are on the hot seat. You definitely don’t want that feeling around. It’s a bad disease.

“I think that can break the team’s morale, especially with the guys that have already been here and have experienced 0-1, than 0-2 and 0-6 (in 2013). It’s just a bad taste in your mouth. And with this organization, which wants to win now and always has a sense of urgency.”

The idea that a Week 1 loss could cause the team’s butts to “get tight” and “break the team’s morale” isn’t exactly reassuring for the season if they do lose to the Cowboys. Since Amukamara basically called this game the Super Bowl following the most uninspiring preseason from the Giants maybe ever, I’m not scared about this game, I’m petrified.

ATLANTA +3 over Philadelphia
Everywhere I turn I see the Eagles being picked to win the NFC East and be a Super Bowl contender. Is Sam Bradford not the Eagles’ starting quarterback? Has he not missed the last 23 regular-season games? Was the last time he played in an NFL game not Oct. 20, 2013?

In five seasons, Bradford has played 16 games twice and has played in 49 of a possible 80 games (61 percent). If Bradford were to get hurt and miss time, which obviously is a real possibility, then the Eagles would turn to Mark Sanchez once again. If you forgot, the Eagles were 7-2 last season and with Sanchez as the starting quarterback, they went on to miss the playoffs.

The Phillies are fighting to not be the worst team in baseball, the Flyers are horrible and the 76ers haven’t been good since Allen Iverson played for them. If the Eagles aren’t good, the Philadelphia sports landscape will be full of bad teams, which is more incentive to pick against the Eagles.

Minnesota -2.5 over SAN FRANCISCO
I have no idea when I’m going to sleep in the next five days. The Yankees have a four-game series against the Blue Jays beginning on Thursday. The NFL season opens on Thursday. The first NFL Sunday is this Sunday and the Giants play at 8:30 p.m. There is the Week 1 Monday Night Football doubleheader with the second game (this game) starting at 10:15 p.m. Normally this is like Raiders-Chargers and I could watch it while falling asleep, but my girlfriend is a Vikings fan, so I will be awake and invested in this game. Since I will be watching intently with a crazed Vikings fan next to me, I have to go with the Vikings here otherwise the next time I will be able to get a good night’s sleep won’t be as early as Tuesday.

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