Blogs – Page 156 – Keefe To The City

Feb 18, 2016

The State of the Yankees’ Rotation: Pitchers and Catchers Edition

The Yankees’ rotation is once again an unknown for the fourth straight season, so I decided to write one question about each of the Yankees’ six starting pitchers in honor of them reporting to Tampa.

Baseball is back! Well, kind of. Pitchers and catchers reporting means the new season has officially started though it’s also just a tease that baseball is truly back with six weeks of meaningless baseball ahead and February and the winter gauntlet still upon us. But with temperatures in the minus-double digits over the last week with the wind chill, any sign of baseball and spring and is a welcome sight.

The Yankees’ spring training opened and with it came the barrage of beat writer tweets marveling at the height and build of new Yankees closer Aroldis Chapman as if no one seemed to know that a guy who throws 105 mph would be so big and so strong. It opened with Joe Girardi being peppered with questions about the unknown playing status of Chapman as well as the lingering injury issues surrounding nearly the entire rotation. And it opened with me wondering about how good this Yankees pitching staff is or can be or if it will be any good at all.

We know the bullpen isn’t going to be good, but rather great. It has to be. If the Yankees’ bullpen doesn’t live up to the hype then nothing else matters because this team isn’t going anywhere without the best bullpen in baseball. The rotation, on the other hand, is once again an unknown for the fourth straight season, so let’s focus there. I decided to write one question about each of the Yankees’ six starting pitchers in honor of them reporting to Tampa.

Number 47, Ivan Nova, Number 47

Who are you?

I know you’re Ivan Manuel (Guance) Nova, born Jan. 12, 1987 and signed by the Yankees as an amateur free agent in 2004. But I mean who are you as a pitcher?

Are you the Ivan Nova that pitched decently in 10 games and seven starts near the end of the 2010 season? Are you the Ivan Nova that went 16-4 with a 3.70 ERA in 2011, shut down the Tigers in Game 1 (but kind of Game 2) in the 2011 ALDS and look like you might be a future front-end starter? Are you the Ivan Nova that went 12-8 with a 5.02 ERA in 2012 and gave up five earned runs or more in nine of 28 starts? Are you the Ivan Nova that pitched his way back to Triple-A at the beginning of 2013 only to return on July 5 and pitch to a 2.59 ERA over his next 15 starts (104 1/3 innings)? Are you the Ivan Nova that had an 8.27 ERA after four starts in 2014 before needing Tommy John surgery? Are you the Ivan Nova that returned in 2015 and went 6-11 with a 5.07 ERA in 17 starts?

The Yankees brought back Nova because they are hoping he can be the pitcher he was in 2011 and the second half of 2013 now that he’s a full season removed from Tommy John surgery and it’s not the worst gamble they ever made. Unfortunately, if the other five starters stay healthy in spring training (and that might be the biggest “if” of all time), Nova is the odd man out and I don’t know what happens to him when it comes to a roster spot. He isn’t suited a long-relief role where the appearances are infrequent and where he wouldn’t be stretched out enough to spot start once an inevitable injury to the other four happens. So I think that could mean he begins the season in Triple-A, which isn’t the worst thing. Like Nova said this month, “I’m a starting pitcher, not a reliever,” and the Yankees should abide by that.

It’s been four-plus years since I thought Nova could be really good and two-plus years since I thought that again. After six seasons as the poster boy for inconsistent, this is likely his last chance with the Yankes to remove that label.

Number 52, CC Sabathia, Number 52

Did you figure out how to “pitch” yet?

Once again, CC Sabathia’s supposed best friend is Cliff Lee, and once again, CC Sabathia spent four seasons with Andy Pettitte. So how is that he hasn’t figured how to pitch like his best friend and longtime teammate and get people out with diminished velocity? How is it that Sabathia still thinks he can pull a mid-to-high-90s fastball out of his back pocket to escape a jam like the old days?

I know CC Sabathia is done. I wrote about it last June and again a little over a week ago. I know he’s never going to be the pitcher he was in 2009 or 2010 or 2011 or 2012, but is it too much to ask of him to just not be the pitcher he was in 2013 (14-13, 4.78 ERA), 2014 (3-4, 5.28 ERA) and 2015 (6-10, 4.73 ERA)?

Maybe after three seasons and 69 starts of being unable to accept the fact that 95 mph and 96 mph and 97 mph are no longer options, and really, 90 mph and 91 mph are often not options either, maybe this is the year that Sabathia learns how to get people out without an overpowering fastball. If it isn’t and if he can’t, well, we’re looking at a fourth straight bad season from the former ace, and if his left shoulder stays healthy, we’ll see it again in 2017 for another $25 million.

The Yankees don’t need Sabathia to be what he once was or even close to it. They just can’t have him ruining the season like he nearly did last year of the way Phil Hughes did in 2013 (14 losses). If Sabathia was able to stay in the rotation last year over Adam Warren despite winning more two games in a month only twice then it’s obvious he’s going to be in the rotation no matter what and the Yankees can’t afford to have him lay an egg or destroy the bullpen every five days.

I would sign up for an above-.500 record and 4.50 ERA from Sabathia right now because it’s better than anything he’s done in the last three seasons and it’s certainly better than anything anyone should expect from him this season. Give me a season of 6 IP/3 ER starts and I’m more than happy.

Number 30, Nathan Eovaldi, Number 30

Have you realized you throw 100 mph?

Nathan Eovaldi’s first season in the Bronx wasn’t as bad as I make it out to be. He did go 14-3 with a 4.20 ERA, but what I hate about him is that he struck out 121 in 154 1/3 innings. How is it possible that a guy who can throw 100 mph for an entire game (and when I say game I mean a Nathan Eovaldi-pitched game, which is 5 1/3 innings), but can’t strike anyone out? At least Phil Hughes had an excuse when he would get ahead 0-2 and then throw nine more pitches in at-bat and that excuse was that he was throwing 92. Eovaldi is throwing 98-99-100 with every fastball and can’t put hitters away. It’s a waste of talent and a waste of an arm and it’s the reason Eovaldi joined his third team by age 24 despite throwing so hard.

Maybe Eovaldi’s new-found splitter last season will be the difference in his career. Maybe that’s the pitch that will finally get him over the hump and and start to bring down that ugly 1.397 career WHIP of his. Maybe he won’t waste so many two-strike pitches that get fouled off and won’t try to strike every guy out and maintain his pitch count, so he isn’t forced to leave every game in the sixth inning nearing 120 pitches. That’s a lot of maybes for a guy who many Yankees fans believe in and believe he can be a front-end starter for this team. I’m going to need to see it more than once a month.

Number 40, Luis Severino, Number 40

Are you the ace?

Luis Severino might be the best pitcher on the Yankees and that’s with a healthy Masahiro Tanaka. I have him as the third starter here because even though Severino is the future of this rotation, there’s no chance the Yankees have him as the No. 2 going into the season and they will likely have him as the No. 4 and I wouldn’t be surprised if they have him as the No. 5. This is the team that told us they’re all about winning last season and sent Adam Warren to the bullpen to keep CC Sabathia in the rotation and it nearly cost them a playoff berth for the third straight season.

I’m actually surprised Joe Girardi mentioned that he sees Severino pitching 200 innings this season since it’s unlike Girardi to say anyone has a guaranteed spot on the team. It would have been more like Girardi to say that Severino is competing for a rotation spot even though he might be the team’s ace.

I liked everything I saw from Severino last season and I’m expecting big things from him in 2016. That might be unfair for a starting pitcher who turns 22 on Saturday and has 11 starts and 62 1/3 innings of Major League experience under his belt, but I wouldn’t say it if I didn’t think he could handle it. Even with minimal work in the majors, I thought there was a case to be made to have Severino start the wild-card game last year though I knew that would never happen. But to think he was right there alongside Tanaka, the $155 million man, to start a one-game playoff after 11 career starts shows you how good Severino is.

Number 35, Michael Pineda, Number 35

Will you ever pitch a full season?

After missing the entire 2012 and 2013 seasons, I started to think Michael Pineda would never actually pitch a game for the Yankees and that feeling of overwhelming excitement I felt in January 2012 when I found out the Yankees had traded Jesus Montero for him would never come to fruition. I finally got that feeling in 2014 when Pineda pitched to a 1.89 ERA, but only for a short time with just 13 starts. In 2015, Pineda wasn’t as good as he had been the year before, but he was healthier, making 27 starts after missing nearly all of August.

2014 Michael Pineda is the Michael Pineda I thought the Yankees were getting when they traded for him. (Well, 2014 Michael Pineda with a few more strikeouts is really the pitcher I thought they were getting.) But I thought they were getting a No. 1-2 starter in exchange for a player without a position. I thought they were getting the guy they thought they were signing in A.J. Burnett and someone to finally slot in behind CC Sabathia and make a true and formidable 1-2 punch for the playoffs. Instead Pineda has made just 40 starts over four years as a Yankee and by the time he was healthy to pitch, Sabathia was no longer the No. 1 and the Yankees weren’t even a playoff team.

I still think there’s a full season as a Yankee ahead of Pineda, and the scary part is it feels like that trade happened forever ago, yet he just turned 27 in January. With all the questions once again surrounding this rotation, it would be nice if Pineda could finally remove himself as one of the questions for the first time in five years and here’s to believing he can. I still believe in Big Mike.

Number 19, Masahiro Tanaka, Number 19

Is your right elbow OK?

Back in October, Tanaka had arthroscopic surgery to remove a bone spur from his pitching elbow. It wasn’t the surgery many thought he would have had by now and some New York writers have wished he would have by now, but it’s still surgery. Now four months removed from the surgery, there is a possibility Tanaka won’t be ready in time for Opening Day despite being pain free at this point.

I was skeptical of the Yankees giving $155 million to a pitcher that had never thrown a pitcher in the majors. When his third pitch in the majors, on an 0-2 count to Melky Cabrera, went for a leadoff home run in the third game of the 2014 season, I wasn’t feeling too good. But Tanaka won that game and started the season 6-0 and when he improved to 11-1 on June 17 with his fifth double-digit strikeout game in 15 starts, his ERA stood at 1.99. Even when he lost a complete game to the Red Sox on June 28 despite giving up just two earned runs, Tanaka was still 11-3 with a 2.10 ERA and he was still the best pitcher in the American League.

In his next two starts, Tanaka gave up nine earned runs in 13 2/3 innings and went on the disabled list after his July 8 start. He returned on Sept. 21 to make two starts — one good (5.1 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 4 K vs. TOR) and one bad (1.2 IP, 7 H, 7 R, 5 ER, 2 BB, 2 K at BOS) — to end the season.

In 2015, we saw the April 4-July 8, 2014 Tanaka in spurts. We saw him on April 18 (7 IP, 2 HR, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 8 K at TB) and April 23 (6.1 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 2 BB, 6 K at DET). But then he went on the DL until June 3. We saw him come off the DL and pitch 21 innings with 21 strikeouts, allowing just four earned runs in his first three starts back. But after that run from June 3-15, we saw him sporadically and didn’t see him in the one-game playoff against the Astros even though he probably could have pitched 14 scoreless innings that game and the Yankees still would have lost.

Last season, I thought Tanaka had to be healthy all year for the Yankees to make the playoffs. He wasn’t (24 starts) and they did (kind of). But this season, I’m saying nearly the same thing: Masahiro Tanaka has to be healthy nearly all season for the Yankees to make the playoffs. With Michael Pineda’s shoulder annual shoulder problems, Nathan Eovaldi’s own elbow issue, Luis Severino’s inexperience, CC Sabathia’s … well just about everything with CC and Ivan Nova’s inconsistent career, the Yankees can’t afford to lose Tanaka. That’s right, the 2015 rotation hinges on the right arm of a pitcher pitching with a torn right elbow. Baseball is back!

Blogs • Rangers

Feb 16, 2016

The 2015-16 Scared of the Rangers Playing Them in the Playoffs Power Rankings

All I care about is that the Rangers get in the playoffs and it doesn’t matter how. Now that it looks like the Rangers are going to the playoffs, it’s time to figure out which teams to root for them to play.

The Rangers are 32-18-6. Last year, after 56 games, they were 34-16-6. That team went on to win the Presidents’ Trophy, finishing with 113 points. So for as bad as the Rangers were from Nov. 25 through Jan. 17, going 8-13-3, they aren’t really much different than they were at this time last year.

The only real difference, even though it’s not necessarily a difference yet, is that the 2014-15 Rangers got to 113 points and earned the No. 1 overall seed in the playoffs with a 16-2-2 record over a 20-game stretch from Feb. 10 to March 22. I don’t know if the 2015-16 Rangers are capable of that kind of run, especially without Ryan McDonagh and Rick Nash, and they most likely aren’t, but it’s still possible.

In reality, the Rangers don’t need to go on that kind of run. As we saw last season and have in most seasons, aside from actually receiving the Presidents’ Trophy, possibly hanging a non-Stanley Cup Champions banner and potentially hosting a Game (which doesn’t guarantee anything), being the overall 1-seed or the 1-seed in the Eastern Conference doesn’t necessarily get you to where you want to go. All I care about is that the Rangers get in the playoffs and it doesn’t matter how. But it does matter who they play.

Last season, starting with 25 games left in the season, I wrote the Scared of the Rangers Playing Them in the Playoffs Power Rankings and I updated it with 12 games left. Now that it looks like the Rangers are going to the playoffs, it’s time to figure out which teams to root for them to play.

1. WASHINGTON CAPITALS
Last season, I wanted the Rangers to play the Capitals, and I said:

After the Rangers blew a 3-1 series lead to the Capitals in the 2008-09 playoffs and then were embarrassed in five games in the 2010-11 playoffs, I didn’t think they would ever beat the Capitals in the playoffs, much like the Penguins. But those were different teams and a different time and the way the Rangers overcame the Penguins in the playoffs last year, they overcame the Capitals in the 2011-12 playoffs. Since then the Rangers have won two series against the Capitals and two Game 7s.

A series against the Capitals means the Rangers will play another series after it.

The Rangers did end up playing the Capitals, saved their season with 1:41 left in Game 5, overcame a 3-1 series deficit and won another Game 7 against the Capitals. But the way things changed from 2010-11 to 2011-12, they could easily change in 2015-16, and I don’t want to have to find out.

In all likelihood, the Rangers will be the 2- or 3-seed in the Met and if they win their first-round series, they will have to play the Capitals in the second round. That is, unless the Capitals are upset by a wild-card team. Let’s hope whichever team gets the second wild-card seed does so by being the hottest team in the league down the stretch and carrying that momentum into the first round against the Capitals. It would make things a lot easier for the Rangers.

2. NEW YORK ISLANDERS
Last season, I didn’t want anything to do with the Islanders in the playoffs even if for two weeks it would be the most intense non-conference finals or non-Final series the Rangers have ever played. Then I changed my mind and wanted a Rangers-Islanders series, but we didn’t get it. Now I’m against it again.

The Islanders play the Rangers harder than anyone in the league, outside of maybe the Devils, and there’s no question a potential Rangers-Islanders series would go the distance. The Rangers would have everything to lose in a series against the Islanders since they’re supposed to win and if they were to lose, it would be much like the Yankees losing a playoff series to the Red Sox: a disaster.

Not only am I scared of the Rangers losing to the Islanders and having to listen to their insufferable fans, but I’m scared that a Rangers-Islanders series would take everything out of the Rangers and leave them exhausted for a second-round series against the Capitals, much like what the 2003 ALCS did to the Yankees.

3. TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING
It was painful to watch Ryan Callahan, Brian Boyle and Anton Stralman be on the winning side of a post-Game 7 handshake in last year’s Eastern Conference finals, and it would have been unbearable to watch those three hoist the Cup in the year following their departure from the Rangers. While I’m over the devastation that comes with watching the team’s former captain and my former whipping boy beat the Rangers in Game 7 at home for the first time in franchise history, I’m not about to watch it happen again.

4. PITTSBURGH PENGUINS
The Rangers easily handled the Penguins in five games last postseason, a year after overcoming a 3-1 series deficit to get Dan Bylsma fired. Since then, the Penguins hired and fired Mike Johnston and made former Rangers assistant coach Mike Sullivan their head coach. The trade of Phil Kessel hasn’t done what many thought it would, and after going missing for the first half of the season, Sidney Crosby has return to his old self playing for Sullivan.

Like I always say when it comes to the Penguins, it’s hard to say you want to play a team that has the best player in the world and at times the second-best player in the world on the same team. But in recent years, the Rangers have owned the Penguins, both in the regular season and postseason and once again this past week, the Rangers displayed that dominance again with a 3-0 win without their best offensive player and best all-around defenseman.

5. NEW JERSEY DEVILS
I think all Rangers fans are hoping the Devils start to play the way a team with their roster should play down the stretch here. The Devils seem to have the Rangers’ number and with an elite goalie in Cory Schneider and the Devils’ ability to score garbage goal after garbage goal against Henrik Lundqvist, it’s not a matchup I welcome. I should be jumping at the chance for the Rangers to play a team led in scoring by Lee Stempniak, but I’m not. I want no part of the Devils.

6. DETROIT RED WINGS
The Rangers haven’t played the Red Wings this season, so it’s hard to say the current version of the teams match up. I know last year I wasn’t scared of playing the Red Wings and I’m still not. I’m actually very anti-Red Wings because of the way they blew their first-round series against the Lightning in the playoffs last year.

The Red Wings held a 3-2 series lead over the Lightning before losing 5-2 in Game 6 and 2-0 in Game 7. The Lightning went on to beat the Canadiens in six games and then played the Rangers and beat them in Game 7 at MSG. If the Red Wings finish the job at home in Game 6 against the Lightning, the Rangers end up playing the Red Wings or Canadiens in the Eastern Conference finals and most likely (obviously there is no way of knowing, so I’m going to side with the Rangers here) would have reached the Stanley Cup Final. Eff you, Detroit.

7. BOSTON BRUINS
In 2010-11, the Bruins won the Cup. In 2011-12, they lost a first-round Game 7. In 2012-13, they went to the Final and lost in six games. In 2013-14, they were the 1-seed in the East and the best team in the league, and blew a 3-2 series lead to the Canadiens in the second round. In 2014-15, they lost their last three games and missed the playoffs by two points, and then fired their general manager and traded Milan Lucic, Doug Hamilton, Carl Soderberg and Reilly Smith. The Bruins have rebuilt on the fly and done a decent job at it.

The Bruins still aren’t very good, but could sneak into the playoffs and finish as high as first in the Atlantic or as a wild-card team. They’re not the force they were two and three years ago, but they still scare me and appear to be a bad matchup for the Rangers.

8. FLORIDA PANTHERS
The Panthers find themselves in this spot only because they are somewhat of an unknown when it comes to playing the Rangers. It’s hard to get a real read on how the Rangers play against the Panthers because their games against them are so wildly inconsistent. In November, the Rangers won 5-4 in overtime at MSG. In January, the Panthers won 3-0 in Florida. Last season, the Rangers swept the season series, winning 5-2, 6-3 and 2-1. Since this is the first good season this Panthers group has had together with the team’s last playoff appearance coming in 2011-12, it’s hard to get a feel for how good this team is if they’re even good at all and how they play in the postseason. Their abundance of former Blackhawks and presence of Dale Tallon scares me a little, but not enough to not want to play them in the playoffs.

Blogs • Rangers

Feb 15, 2016

The Return of the 2015-16 Rangers

Every Rangers-Flyers game feels big, but Sunday’s Rangers-Flyers game felt a little bigger. It felt a little different than normal and a little more important than usual.

Every Rangers-Flyers game feels big, but Sunday’s Rangers-Flyers game felt a little bigger. It felt a little different than normal and a little more important than usual. The moments leading up to the start of the game felt like something out of April or May and the first minutes after the puck dropped felt like something out of the ’90s.

NBC Sports built up the storyline of Wayne Simmonds dropping Ryan McDonagh and putting the Rangers’ captain in the press box for the foreseeable future and used a conversation between Dylan McIlrath and Simmonds during warmups like a movie trailer. Outside of watching Matt Damon return as Jason Bourne during Super Bowl 50, I can’t recall the last trailer that made me feel the way I did as I watched the red line serve as the linesman for McIlrath and Simmonds during warmups.

Tanner Glass had made the comments earlier in the week defending his captain when he said, “You just have to let [Simmonds] know that that’s not going to be tolerated. [McDonagh’s] our captain, he’s our best player, [Simmonds] can’t do that. He’ll know. He’ll know.” But here was the 23-year-old defenseman, who would still be in the press box watching games if not for Simmonds connecting with McDonagh’s jaw, taking it upon himself to act in a way Alain Vigneault’s teams haven’t acted in the past.

With the Madison Square Garden crowd booing Simmonds’ first shift of the night and Alain Vigneault and Ulf Samuelsson giving McIlrath the green light to hit the ice and challenge Simmonds, it only took 39 seconds for McIlrath to make Simmonds atone for his punch. It took 17 seconds from the time McIlrath and Simmonds dropped their gloves until the first punch was thrown, and 50 seconds after that, the linesmen broke them up.

McIlrath had a job to do and he did it, and even Simmonds, for as hated as he is by Rangers fans, had a job to do and he did it. He didn’t back down from McIlrath’s pregame challenge, knowing if not McIlrath, then Glass would be after him, and if he didn’t agree to go, one of the two would make him go. Simmonds answered the bell for putting McDonagh on the shelf, and as a hockey fan, you have to respect Simmonds’ respect for the situation. He’s still the perfect Flyer, but if he were a Ranger, he’d be the fan favorite in New York that he is in Philadelphia.

Seconds after Simmonds going to the box, screaming and shouting like a maniac, which is pretty much what one has to be to stand toe-to-toe with no visor against the half-shielded protected McIlrath and his three-inch and 30-pound advantage, Glass hit the ice with pent-up adrenaline and his chance to make goods on his comments. Glass went with the next best thing, running down Radko Gudas in the far corner and then immediately turning to drop the gloves with a more-than-willing Ryan White. Twenty seconds after the game stopped for McIlrath-Simmonds, it stopped once again for Glass and White to go. With 19:01 left in the first, and McIlrath, Glass, Simmonds and White in the box, and everything from eight days ago seemingly taken care of, the actual game could begin.

It was nearly a full game of domination from the Rangers. Whether it be from the energy created by McIlrath or Glass in the opening minute, or the simple fact that the Rangers are just a vastly superior team to the Flyers, or a combination of both, the Rangers not getting two points was never in question. For nearly a month now, the Rangers have looked like one of the best teams in the league, the same way they looked like a contender when they ripped off nine-straight wins in October and November and started the season 16-3-2. And to think, they’re doing it without their best offensive weapon and best defensive defenseman.

Derick Brassard was able to pull off the extra-long wraparound attempt on Steve Mason, who seemed to be the only person in the Garden and watching on TV, who didn’t anticipate Brassard’s eventual move with a full head of steam and no real passing lane. It was Brassard’s 19th of the season, tying a career high he set last season, as he continues to be the Rangers’ best scoring option not named Rick Nash.

Derek Stepan, who you would think would be the Rangers’ best scoring option not named Rick Nash, did what he does best, scoring a pair of a goals on wide-open nets, which seem to the be the only way he can score, for his 11th and 12th on the season. With eight goals needed and only 26 games to play, it’s going to take a Nash-like hot streak for Stepan to have just his second 20-goal season in six years, in what will unfortunately be another disappointing offensive season for the center.

And the man who helped save the Rangers’ season when it looked like it might unravel and when certain New York hockey writers called the team “done” played like his usual self. After having his first game off in nearly a month on Friday against the Kings, and just his second game off since Dec. 12, Henrik Lundqvist held the Flyers scoreless for 59 minutes and 50 seconds before a 6-on-4 garbage-time goal denied him of his second straight shutout.

Henrik Lundqvist has been the New York Rangers since 2007-08. (You could make the case for him being the team in 2005-06 and 2006-07 as well, but those were still Jaromir Jagr’s teams. At worst, he and Jagr were the co-New York Rangers for those two years.) And once again, he still is. During the Rangers’ recent resurgence, which started on Jan. 19 against Vancouver, the Rangers have gone 8-2-0 with Lundqvist in net, and he has allowed 18 goals in those 10 games. Lundqvist’s return to Vezina-esque status and him turning on his postseason switch a little early, stopped a nightmarish collapse as the Rangers have started to create separation between them and the rest of the non-Capitals Met teams and wild-card contenders.

The highly-coveted two points available on Sunday might have been an afterthought during the opening 59 seconds of the game, but after that, the Rangers did what they have done nearly every game for the last month: win. With Sunday night’s win, their second-place cushion in the Met got a little bigger and their lead to avoid the wild card and a potential matchup with the Capitals grew a little larger.

Watching McIlrath make Simmonds answer for his Feb. 8 punch was enjoyable, but earning those two points, helping keep the Flyers out of the postseason again and having the Rangers increase their own chances of making it is what really matters.

Blogs • KTTC Classics • Yankees

Feb 10, 2016

CC Sabathia Is Still Done

It wouldn’t be February without overly optimistic stories. And who better to start up this round of stories than CC Sabathia?

It’s almost time for pitchers and catchers to report and spring training to officially start, and it wouldn’t be early February without some overly optimistic stories. Each year at this time, the fairy tales that “(Player Name) is in the best shape of his life” or “(Player Name) feels the best he has in (number) years” are written. And who better to start up this round of stories than CC Sabathia?

“I feel the best I have in three years. I am excited to get to Tampa with a clear head and a healthy body.”

That’s what Sabathia texted to the New York Post on Tuesday after a workout, and in two simple sentences, Sabathia has given a lot of false hope to those who believe him. I don’t.

Last season, I did over/unders for the Yankees, and for Sabathia I set his ERA at over/under 4.50. Here’s what I said:

Sabathia is going to need to find a way to get outs without overpowering hitters the way his former teammate Andy Pettitte and supposed best friend Cliff Lee were able to do. (Let’s hope he talked to them.) Given the health concerns of Tanaka and Pined every pitch they throw, Sabathia is going to need to be relied on. That makes me uncomfortable, but … optimism!

Yes, I took the under and believed that a former ace making $25 million could pitch to a quality start ERA. He finished the year with a 4.73 ERA. It was down from his 5.28 in 2014 and his 4.78 in 2013, but it was nowhere near the 3.22 he posted in his first four years with the Yankees.

Sabathia once again let Yankees fans down as if was once again unable to turn into former teammate Andy Pettitte or supposed best friend Cliff Lee and instead tried to sneak fastballs past hitters sitting on his mid-to-high-80s stuff. He put together back-to-back quality starts three times in 29 starts and never had three in a row. It was another disappointing season from the former Cy Young winner, who lost his first four starts and didn’t get his first win until May 11 to improve to 1-5, as he didn’t win in April, won twice in May, once in June, once in July, didn’t win in August and won twice in September.

So now on Feb. 9, after having not pitched since Oct. 1, four months ago, and having spent a month in rehab for alcohol abuse, Sabathia says he feels the best he has in three years. Of course he does! He hasn’t pitched in 131 days and finally received treatment for what he said had been an ongoing problem. He’s never going to feel as good as he does right now before pitchers and catchers report and before the daily grind of being a soon-to-be 36-year-old Major League pitcher sets in.

My biggest question from Sabathia’s two sentences, is what he means by “three years.” If he means calendar years, well, three years ago right now he was about to begin a season in which he went 14-13 with a 4.78 ERA and led the league in earned runs. If he means seasons, then OK, because three seasons ago was his 2012 season when he went 15-6 with a 3.38 ERA and beat the Orioles twice in the ALDS. (Better known as his last good season.)

Wallace Matthews of ESPN New York wrote that Sabathia is “fighting” for his job in the rotation, which couldn’t be any less true, so I tweeted that I hope no one really thinks Sabathia’s rotation spot is in question.

I hope no one really thinks CC Sabathia is fighting for a rotation spot when he's owed $25 million this year. https://t.co/YZWebtIwc1

— Neil Keefe (@NeilKeefe) February 10, 2016

When I tweeted Matthews about how ridiculous of a concept that was, he replied:

https://twitter.com/ESPNNYYankees/status/697545815473008640

So then, I replied:

I wish that were the case but he stayed in rotation last year when he couldn't cut it and Warren went to the bullpen https://t.co/P0OIEHg1XX

— Neil Keefe (@NeilKeefe) February 10, 2016

That’s the truth. If Sabathia could remain in the 2015 rotation despite having an ERA of at least five until Sept. 14 and having just four wins in 26 starts through Sept. 14, while Adam Warren was sent to the bullpen, why would anyone think that Sabathia would be fighting for his job this season, against Ivan Nova of all pitchers? As long as Sabathia keeps making about $700,000 per start, which he will make this season AND next season, he’s going to start.

For the guy who basically won every five days for four years, he has now held Jorge Posada’s former title as the Yankees’ family dog for three seasons. If you forgot what I wrote about Posada in 2010 and 2011, well …

Posada is like the aging family dog that just wanders around aimlessly and goes to the bathroom all over the place and just lies around and sleeps all day. You try to pretend like the end isn’t near and you try to remember the good times to get through the bad times, and once in a while the dog will do something to remind you of what it used to be, but it’s just momentary tease.

Take out Posada and insert Sabathia and you have 2013-2015 Sabathia and what we will once again get in 2016 for $25 million and unfortunately again in 2017 for $25 million.

As the family dog, I’m sure Sabathia will give us a few throwback performances this season. Maybe he’ll beat the Red Sox on Sunday Night Baseball or outpitch Matt Harvey at Yankee Stadium. Maybe he’ll retire Jose Bautista with the bases loaded or get Adam Jones to ground into a double play to hold a lead in a big spot. There will be times when Sabathia makes you think it’s 2009 or 2010 or 2011 or 2012 again, but they will be rare. Don’t believe what he texted the Post. It pains me to say again, but like I said last June, CC Sabathia is done.

Blogs • Yankees

Feb 2, 2016

Bye Bye Greg Bird

There’s a chance Greg Bird won’t be ready for 2017 and there’s a chance he won’t be as productive as he once was and there’s a chance he won’t be able to be the first baseman of the future.

I guess I won’t have to waste a million words this season writing about how Greg Bird should be the Yankees’ starting first baseman over Mark Teixeira even though Teixeira will make $23 million this year. Now I just have to hope I don’t waste a million words next season once again longing for Bird to be the Yankees’ starting first baseman. I will spend the next year desperately hoping for 2015 Greg Bird to show up in 2017, completely fixed from his shoulder surgery and not suffering any setbacks, and not skipping a beat from the last time we saw him on the field in the wild-card game.

There’s a chance Bird won’t be ready for 2017 and there’s a chance he won’t be as productive as he once was and there’s a chance he won’t be able to be the first baseman of the future. The Yankees aren’t about to go into 2017 without an insurance policy at first base and that most likely means Mark Teixeira won’t have to move from Greenwich anytime soon. Aside from the actual problem of Bird being originally told to rest and rehab his shoulder and now he will miss the entire season after surgery, the other here is that Bird’s absence sets up a potential terrible chain reaction. Like a 75-yard chain of dominoes built during indoor recess due to inclement weather, if the dominoes start to fall, we’ll be looking at 2013 and 2014 all over again. Actually, we might be longing for the days of 2013 and 2014.

With the Yankees’ recent luck of injuries, I can easily see Teixeira spending the majority of the season on the disabled list (and you know if Bird were healthy, Teixeira wouldn’t get hurt all season, but be unproductive, while Bird raked in Triple-A), which would make Dustin Ackley the Yankees’ everyday first baseman. Between Ackley at first and Chase Headley at third, the Yankees will have two non-power hitters in two spots that, which need power. In that scenario, and with Brett Gardner in left field, the Yankees’ lone corner power hitter would be Carlos Beltran, and counting on the soon-to-be 39-year-old to not only contribute the way he should at $15 million, but also stay healthy isn’t exactly assuring. The Yankees could get by if they had a power hitter in a non-traditional power spot, like say second base, but they no longer have that luxury. Sure, this isn’t exactly the most positive line of thinking, but when your 23-year-old first baseman of the future goes down for the season, and you’re now desperately relying on your 31-year-old catcher (will be 32 on Feb. 20), 35-year-old first baseman (will be 36 on April 11), 38-year-old right fielder (will be 39 on April 24) and 40-year-old designated hitter (will be 41 on July 27) to not only stay healthy, but be productive, it’s important to think about the worst-case scenarios.

You might think this is overreacting to an injury to a player that was going to start the season in Triple-A, if Teixeira were to remain healthy come Opening Day, but it’s not. Bird was going to play a role for the Yankees this season even if Brian Cashman wants to pretend like you can suddenly bet on Teixeira’s health like he’s American Pharoah at Churchill Downs. And without Greg Bird last season, the Yankees don’t make the playoffs. They won a wild-card berth by two games and won home-field in the wild-card by one game on the last day of the season thanks to an Astros loss (not that it mattered). Take away Bird’s performance, while in for Teixeira and the Yankees would have been postseason-less for three straight years (even though it’s basically like they were).

Bird seamlessly fit in for Teixeira when he went down with a bone bruise, which turned out to be a broken leg, and was as good, if not better than Teixeira, giving the Yankees their first promising look into the future for a position player since Robinson Cano debuted in 2005. Bird hit .261/.343/.529 in 178 plate appearances, while Teixeira hit .255/.357/.548 in 462 plate appearances. Combine their power and they hit 41 home runs with 110 RBIs. Together, Mark Teixeira and Greg Bird were a Top 3 AL MVP finalist.

Teixeira played 111 games last year. He played 123 games in 2014. He played 15 games in 2013. He played 123 games in 2012. In the last few years, he has missed time due to wrist surgery, pain and discomfort from that wrist surgery, a pulled hamstring, injuries to his rib cage and knee and lat, tired legs from being on the bases(!), light-headedness and an injury to his pinky sliding into home. There’s a 100 percent chance Teixeira misses time this year either due to an actual injury or something comical like having tired legs from being on the bases. This is the guy that complained about the length of playing baseball games in Sept. 2011, saying, “I can’t stand playing a nine-inning game in four hours. It’s not baseball. I don’t even know how to describe it.” This is a guy who has made $189.9 million in his life playing the game he doesn’t know how to describe and will make another $23.125 million this season. You can guarantee he’s going to get hurt this season.

Last season, we got a glimpse into the future of a real prospect for the first time in 10-plus years, and it’s been taken away. Greg Bird was the future at first base for the Yankees. Now, we need to hope he still is.