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Author: Neil Keefe

Blogs • Giants

Oct 1, 2015

NFL Week 4 Picks

After surviving Week 2, Week 3 was one for the history books, but now the bar has been set to try to continue to produce equally successful weeks. It’s not an easy job, but someone has to do it.

Andre Williams and Eli Manning

The good part about your team playing on Thursday Night Football is that you only have to wait four days until the team’s next game. The bad part about your team playing on Thursday Night Football is that you then have to wait 10 days until they play again. But that’s not necessarily bad for the Giants since their early-season Thursday game serves as nearly a bye week, giving them time to rest and prepare for the Bills.

The Giants are in a perfect position to go on a run and take control of the NFC East with Tony Romo and Dez Bryant out for a couple months, the Eagles having no identity and a bad offense with a greatly underachieving DeMarco Murray and the Redskins being the Redskins. After the Week 1 meltdown in Dallas, I figured that loss would eventually mean the Giants would have to battle for a wild-card berth, but the NFC East once again is proving to be a gongshow for another season, and that’s exactly what the Giants need.

Last week was a memorable one. A 13-3 week with the picks that included a Giants win over the Redskins is about as good as it gets when it comes to the always unpredictable NFL. After surviving Week 2, Week 3 was one for the history books, but now the bar has been set to try to continue to produce equally successful weeks. It’s not an easy job, but someone has to do it.

(Home team in caps)

PITTSBURGH +3 over Baltimore
Michael Vick doesn’t really want to play football anymore. He wants to collect a paycheck to practice during the week and then watch Steelers games from the sidelines on Sundays (and sometimes Mondays and a Thursday). It was the same story when he was with the Jets and when he finally had to go into a game, he looked like someone who hadn’t prepared to play an actual snap for the season. But even for as bad as Vick has looked and has been, the Ravens are worse. They are 0-3 for the first time under John Harbaugh, their defense has been embarrassed and their offense has been non-existent. Aside from all of that, you always take the points in Steelers-Ravens games. It’s just the smart thing to do.

Last season, the Ravens won 26-6 and the Steelers won 43-23. In 2013, the Steelers won 19-16 and the Ravens won 22-20. In 2012, the Ravens won 13-10 and the Steelers won 23-20. In 2011, the Ravens won 35-7 and 23-20. In 2010, the Ravens won 17-14 and the Steelers won 13-10. In 2009, the Ravens won 20-17 in overtime and the Steelers won 23-20. In 2008, the Steelers won 23-20 in overtime and 13-9.

Last season was an anomaly, but including last season, in the last 14 meetings between the two teams, 10 of the games have been decided by three points or less and eight of them have been decided by exactly three points. Even without Ben Roethlisberger, you have to take the Steelers at home getting 3.

New York Jets -2 over MIAMI
Last week, I said the following about the Jets.

Now not only are the Jets not going to start the season 1-3, they might be 4-0 heading into their bye and with the Redskins on the schedule in Week 6, they might be 5-0 heading to New England. Nearly five years after we got the 9-2 Jets against the 9-2 Patriots on Monday Night Football, we might get the 5-0 Jets against the 5-0 Patriots this season.

So how did they repay my positivity about them? By losing at home to the Eagles, which screwed up the NFC East even more and hurt the Giants, in a game that included one of the dumbest decisions I have ever seen by Brandon Marshall on an unnecessary lateral that turned into a fumble. It felt like the same old Jets and after that fumble I expected the camera to pan to the sidelines and for Rex Ryan to be standing there.

But Rex isn’t there and Todd Bowles is and it was his first bad game as Jets head coach even if he couldn’t control Marshall’s decision making or Ryan Fitzpatrick’s ineffectiveness. And even thought the Jets looked awful in a home loss, they won’t spiral out of control the way they would have if Rex were still there. That’s partly because of Bowles and partly because the Dolphins are atrocious.

So far the Dolphins barely got past the Redskins (who are 1-2) in Week 1, lost to the Jaguars (who are 1-2 and lost to the Patriots 51-17) in Week 2 and were run out of their own building by the Bills in Week 3. Here’s what I said about the Dolphins in Week 1:

For the last few years, we have been hearing about how the Dolphins will challenge the Patriots in the AFC East and each time they have failed. This year, the Dolphins are supposed to be even better and once again challenge the Patriots and reach the postseason for the first time since 2008.

Well, the Dolphins are once again an underachieving and mediocre team, and mediocre might be generous. A week after they couldn’t win a division game at home, actually scratch that … A week after they couldn’t even compete in a division game at home, they’re now going to go across the Atlantic and beat the Jets on a neutral field. OK, sure.

Jacksonville +9 over INDIANAPOLIS
The best thing to happen in Week 3 was the Jaguars getting blown out in New England, so that this line would be made too high, and it is. The Colts are a bad team that celebrated their Week 3 win over the Titans the way they would have likely celebrated their AFC Championship win over the Patriots had they won (or even made it a game). The Jaguars aren’t good, but neither are the Colts, and for the Colts to be giving 9 points to any team after back-to-back losses to open the season and barely pulling out a two-point win in Tennessee. Despite being favorites in their first three games, the Colts have yet to cover, considering they lost two of them, and I’m continuing to sell hard on the Colts.

Houston +7 over ATLANTA
I don’t really think the Falcons are good. That isn’t exactly something normal to say about an undefeated 3-0 team with two road wins already on the season, but like saying goes, “It’s not about who you play, it’s about when you play them.” So far the Falcons got the inept Eagles at home in Week 1, the Giants’ clock management problems in Week 2 and a Tony Romo- and Dez Bryant-less Cowboys team in Week 3. The Falcons deserve credit for winning all three games and for coming from behind down multiple possessions in the last two, but those aren’t exactly impressive wins and even with Julio Jones catching everything thrown within 10 feet of him, the Falcons just aren’t anything special. They might beat the Texans and improve to 4-0, but they aren’t going to do it by blowing them out because that’s not who the Falcons are.

Carolina -3.5 over TAMPA BAY
The Panthers are the most under-the-radar 3-0 team ever. I had to check to make sure they were 3-0 because that’s how little I have heard about them and their undefeated start to the season. Even though their wins are against Jacksonville, Houston and New Orleans, they’re still wins and the Panthers have the luxury of playing in the NFC South where only Atlanta will give them any sort of competition. I might shy away from picking the Panthers if they were being talked about and hyped as much as any other 3-0 team would, but as long as the Panthers continue to go unnoticed, there’s nothing to be worried about with a potential trap line.

New York Giants +5.5 over BUFFALO
The return of Victor Cruz had me dreaming of the possibilities of Odell Beckham Jr. and Cruz being unstoppable since we have never really seen the two play together. (The duo played just one game together last season before Cruz injured his knee.) But after suffering a setback with his calf in practice on Wednesday, Cruz probably won’t play again this week in Buffalo, and if he doesn’t, he will have already missed 25 percent of the season.

On the Bills’ side, Rex Ryan told Mike Francesa on Wednesday that both LeSean McCoy and Sammy Watkins are likely out for the game. That leaves the game pretty much up to the Bills’ defense, which let the Patriots put up 507 yards against them at home, so the aura of Ralph Wilson Stadium being a touch place to play just because the Colts couldn’t do anything isn’t exactly true.

Oakland -3 over CHICAGO
When was the last time the Raiders were a road favorite? LOOK IT UP. This line feels way too low after watching Jimmy Clausen and the Bears punt on all 10 of their possessions against the Seahawks last week. I’m not sure how the Bears are ever going to score with Clausen at quarterback unless Robbie Gould starts drilling 70-yard field goals. But even then, Clausen would have to move the ball to the Bears’ 47 and I’m not sure if that’s possible. After trading Jared Allen, it’s clear the Bears are about to begin a fire sale and it has been suggested that they trade Matt Forte, who is in the last year of his contract and approaching 30. If Forte wasn’t in the last year of his contract, I would advise the Bears to make him inactive for every game for the rest of the season and save his legs for next year, but since he is, they should trade him. Why should the Bears have an elite running back? It’s like a 60-win baseball team having an elite closer. Trade Forte.

WASHINGTON +3.5 over Philadelphia
Kirk Cousins says he couldn’t sleep over his non-touchdown passes to Jordan Reed on Thursday Night Football last week. That’s good because it shows Cousins’ head is in the right place, but it’s not good because he needs his sleep to win this game.

I’m rooting for the Redskins to win because they are less of a threat to the Giants in the NFC East and a Redskins win would give Philadelphia two division losses. I want the NFC East to become a two-team race between the Giants and Cowboys and without Romo and Bryant for a while, the Giants will have the opportunity to take a commanding lead. Will they take advantage of this opportunity? Of course not. But I can dream.

Kansas City +4.5 over CINCINNATI
The old me would see this line, remember that the Chiefs are 1-2 and Ryan Mallett starting over Brian Hoyer in Week 1 from being 0-3, and remember that the Bengals are 3-0 and instantly pick the Bengals. But not the new me. Not the me that has created a “Just Say No to the B’s” campaign. Those B’s are the Bengals, Bears and Browns. So I’m saying no to the Bengals and there isn’t an amount of peer pressure that could get me to change my mind.

SAN DIEGO -7.5 over Cleveland
If you just read my rule about the B’s in the last pick then you already know. However, there is one exception to that rule and that is when Johnny Manziel starts, the Browns aren’t part of it. Johnny Football is once again on the bench, so I’m saying no to the Browns and I hope they lose in a rout.

Green Bay -9.5 over SAN FRANCISCO
Carlos Hyde ran all over the Vikings in Week 1 and had the best week of any running back in the NFL in his debut as the 49ers starter. The next week he got hurt against the Steelers and when he was ready to come back in, he was held out because the score was lopsided. Last week, due to another lopsided score, he was held out for most of the game again. This week, the 49ers are playing the best team and the best offense in the NFC. There’s a good chance we’re headed for another game in which Hyde watches from the sidelines to preserve his health and legs for future games. There are going to be a lot of games like that for the 49ers this season, but the problem is that Hyde is the 49ers offense, so without him they don’t have a chance.

DENVER -7 over Minnesota
The Vikings are 2-1 thanks to two home wins, but I didn’t like what I saw from them in their season opener on the road in San Francisco against a team that has been outscored 90-25 in the last two weeks. I don’t know how I’m supposed to take the Vikings in Denver against Peyton Manning and that defense and feel confident with a 7-point spread. I’m going to have to see Teddy Bridgewater and the Vikings offense a little more away from Minnesota before I start to back the Vikings on the road. (Sorry, Britt. Don’t worry, I like sleeping on the couch.)

ARIZONA -7 over St. Louis
The Cardinals are the real deal. Two years ago, they were a 10-win team that didn’t make the playoffs. Last season, they were a true contender in the NFC until Carson Palmer got hurt and Drew Stanton got hurt and they were left starting Ryan Lindley, who threw for 82 yards, in their playoff game at Carolina. Bruce Arians and the Cardinals deserve better and so far this season they have proven that they are at the top of the NFC with the Packers and are better than their their division rival Seahawks. I’m going to enjoy taking the Cardinals for a touchdown or less for as long as Vegas wants to give away a free pick and free money.

NEW ORLEANS -5 over Dallas
It’s the possibly Drew Brees-less Saints against the Tony Romo-less Cowboys on Sunday Night Football. NBC must be thrilled about the state of these two teams for their primetime game though probably not as thrilled as Brees was when he found out Jimmy Graham was traded to Seattle.

The Superdome Saints are no more. When you lose to Jameis Winston and the Buccaneers in the Superdome, that theory goes away. Instead the Saints are now an 0-3 team with a loss this week away from having their season over with 75 percent of the schedule remaining. If there’s any truth to the idea of a desperate team coming to play and winning a game, this is it. What better way to turn your season around than on national TV in the manic Superdome with Drew Brees returning to the field.

SEATTLE -10 over Detroit
I’m not sure if Jim Caldwell’s job is in trouble with the Lions being winless since I’m not sure how Jim Caldwell was hired to be the Lions head coach to begin with. Maybe that postseason appearance last year is enough to buy Caldwell some time, but that time might be erased in the coming weeks. After the Lions lose in Seattle, they host Arizona, Chicago and Minnesota and then go to Kansas City before their Week 9 bye. That has 1-8, maybe 2-7 at best, written all over it.

Last week: 13-3-0
Season: 29-18-1

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Blogs • Yankees

Sep 30, 2015

The Wild-Card Game Starting Pitcher Dilemma

Here are the most likely candidates I would love the Yankees to face to who I’m petrified at even the thought of them facing in the wild-card game.

Dallas Keuchel

The Yankees are going to the playoffs and the only thing left to do is secure home-field advantage for the one-game playoff. After winning three of four from the White Sox, the Yankees produced two ugly efforts against the Red Sox and their lead for the first wild card is dwindling. Once they secure home-field advantage, the last thing to do is figure out who they are going to face.

My hope is that the Astros, Angels and Twins will have to play right up until the final out of Game 162 on Sunday to determine who will head to Yankee Stadium for Tuesday, and as of right now, that scenario is playing out exactly as needed.

Wild Card Standings

With all three teams separated by 1.5 games in the standings and just one game in the loss column, the next five days is going to be everything Bud Selig and Major League Baseball dreamed of when they implemented this outrageous format for their postseason. I decided to not get greedy in asking for the teams to play right through Game 162 because had I gotten greedy, I would have asked for the teams to tie and produce an incredible tie-breaker scenario that could force a one-game playoff before the already scheduled one-game playoff. The reason the Yankees need these teams to go all out until Sunday afternoon is so they can’t line their best starting pitcher up for the one-game playoff and in some cases (Houston … cough … cough), it’s a huge disadvantage.

Not included in those standings is Texas, which is two games up in the AL West over Angels and 2.5 games up over the Astros. The Rangers are most likely going to win the West and avoid the one-game playoff, but there’s still a chance they could give the division away in the final days, so I have included the Rangers.

Whether the Yankees face an opponent’s ace or their No. 5 on Tuesday, it’s going to be an experience that will likely cause my heart rate and blood pressure to reach dangerous levels. I have already packed my One-Game Playoff Survival Kit to get me through the game and help me cope with the end of the finality of the season if it comes to that. But until then, I’m going to be scoreboard watching and trying to figure out which pitcher the Yankees will face. Here are the most likely candidates in order of who I would love the Yankees to face to who I’m petrified at even the thought of them.

1. Kyle Gibson
Where do I sign up for this? He’s the stereotypical right-handed Twins pitcher that has a record right around .500, an ERA right around 4.00 and is just plain average. In 10 1/3 innings against the Yankees this year, Gibson gave up 12 earned runs. Those aren’t average numbers, they’re horrible and they’re exactly what I’m looking for.

2. Mike Pelfrey
Pelfrey made throwing high-90s fastballs without striking anyone out a thing long before Nathan Eovaldi. The only Yankee with at least six at-bats against Pelfrey, who isn’t hitting at least .313 against him is Stephen Drew and that doesn’t matter since Drew isn’t going to be playing in the one-game playoff anyway. Here are some of the Yankees’ numbers against Big Pelf.

Brian McCann: 19-for-42 (.452)
Chris Young: 7-for-21 (.333)
A-Rod: 5-for-16 (.313)
Brett Gardner: 6-for-16 (.375)
Chase Headley: 4-for-12 (.333)
Brendan Ryan: 3-for-6 (.500)
Jacoby Ellsbury: 2-for-6 (.333)
Carlos Beltran: 1-for-3 (.333)

Some of those aren’t the greatest of sample sizes, but they’re enough to show that it’s Mike Pelfrey. The Yankees would be able to stack left-handed hitters in the lineup (like they would against righty) and the only right-handed hitter Pelfrey would see would be A-Rod. This is the Yankees’ ideal situation.

3. Tommy Milone
It’s another Twin. Even though Milone is a lefty, this is more about just facing the Twins. The Yankees beat them in four games in the 2003 ALDS. They beat them in four games in the 2004 ALDS. They swept them in the 2009 ALDS. They swept them in the 2010 ALDS. It doesn’t matter if it’s Milone pitching or Johan Santana or Francisco Liriano, my confidence is at an all-time high when the Yankees play the Twins in the ALDS.

4. Garrett Richards
Earlier this season, the Yankees rocked Richards for six runs in the first inning and he was out of the game after getting just two outs. In four career starts and one relief appearance against the Yankees, he’s 0-3 with a 6.55 ERA with all three of those losses and the four starts coming in Yankee Stadium. Give me, Garrett Richards.

5. Hector Santiago
The left-hander and first-time All-Star this season only faced the Yankees once this year and pitched 3 2/3 scoreless innings out of the bullpen in an 8-2 Yankees win. In his career against the Yankees, he’s 1-2 with a 6.30 ERA in six games and three starts with a 1.700 WHIP to go along with those ugly numbers. If it has to be a lefty, he might be the Yankees’ best option.

6. Jered Weaver
From 2010-2012, Weaver finished in the Top 5 in Cy Young voting all three years and won 20 games in 2012. Despite having a high-80s fastball, Weaver’s herky-jerky motion and control made him one of the league’s top pitchers, but I never saw him that way against the Yankees.

In 15 career regular-season starts against the Yankees, Weaver is 7-5 with a 5.83 ERA. (A-Rod is 12-for-32 with six home runs against him.) Weaver started Game 3 of the 2009 ALDS and allowed three earned runs on five hits, including three home runs, in five innings. He pitched 1 1/3 shutout innings in two relief appearances in Games 5 (1 IP) and 6 (0.1 IP).

There’s a chance he could turn back the clock and find his former self for one big game, but I’m willing to take that chance.

7. Yovani Gallardo
Gallardo just doesn’t scare me. He’s a good career with 101 wins and a 3.66 ERA, but he it wouldn’t be the worst thing if the Yankees saw him. He throws a lot of pitches and likely wouldn’t be around long in the game and there’s always the possibility of him getting wild and giving out free passes. He’s not my first choice, but he’s not my last choice, and I would be fine with the Yankees having to face him.

8. Derek Holland
The Yankees saw Holland in the 2010 ALCS when he threw 5 2/3 scoreless innings out of the bullpen for the Rangers. Since then, he became a front-end starter for the Rangers before getting hurt and missing most of last season and this season. For a hard-throwing lefty, Holland hasn’t been as good against the Yankees in the regular season as he was in the 2010 postseason with a 1-6 record and 6.59 ERA in 10 games and nine starts. It feels weird to not be scared of Holland in a situation like this, but I’m not.

9. Ervin Santana
The last time the Yankees saw Santana in the playoffs, he was a reliever for the Angels in the 2009 ALCS and held the Yankees to one run over 5 2/3 innings in four appearances. Before that, the Yankees saw him as a 22-year-old rookie out of the bullpen starting in the second inning in Game 5 of the 2005 ALDS.

After Bartolo Colon walked Robinson Cano to lead off the second inning of Game 5 of the 2005 ALDS, Mike Scioscia called on Santana to come in to relieve Colon. Cano was then caught stealing second for the first out of the inning since Cano always thought he was much faster than he was. Santana walked Bernie Williams and Jorge Posada and then Bubba Crosby singled to score Williams. A Derek Jeter sacrifice fly scored Jorge Posada and the Yankees had a 2-0 lead in the deciding game of the series.

I thought the Yankees would continue to build on their lead and chase Santana, but instead those two runs would be all they would get until the seventh inning. Starting with a strikeout of Alex Rodriguez to end the second, Santana gave up just three hits, all singles, until Derek Jeter homered to lead off the seventh. Kelvim Escobar and Francisco Rodriguez shut the door and ended the Yankees’ season and Santana got the win to send the Angels to the ALCS.

Here’s Santana’s career postseason line against the Yankees: 11.0 IP, 10 H, 6 R, 4 ER, 6 BB, 7 K, 1 HR, 3.27 ERA, 1.455 WHIP.

They aren’t impressive numbers, but seeing Santana take the mound will bring back unwanted flashbacks of Oct. 10, 2005.

10. Scott Kazmir
Kazmir has a 3.19 career ERA against the Yankees, but in the Bronx, he hasn’t been as good. At the old Yankee Stadium, he had a 5.04 ERA in 25 innings, and at the new Yankee Stadium, he has a 5.59 ERA in 19 1/3 innings.

The Yankees saw him in the 2009 ALCS when he started Game 4 and gave up four earned runs on six hits and four walks in four innings. They saw him again in the eighth inning of Game 6 out of the bullpen for two outs and five batters.

His history against the Yankees in the Bronx hasn’t been good and his left-handed power is scary against a lefty-heavy lineup, but it wouldn’t be the worst thing if Kazmir started the one-game playoff.

11. Lance McCullers
McCullers is just a 21-year-old rookie, who has never seen the Yankees, which certainly plays into his favor given their history against pitchers they have never seen before. But he is a righty, so that helps the Yankees.

McCullers has struck out 123 in 120 innings this season, and in 21 starts, he’s only allowed more than three earned runs once. Another reason to not to want to face McCullers is that he’s allowed just nine home runs all season and the Yankees live and die with the home run. This matchup reminds me too much of Jaret Wright against the Yankees in Game 5 of the 1997 ALDS.

12. Collin McHugh
McHugh is a right-hander, so that makes me more willing to want him on the mound. However, he hasn’t been a typical right-hander against the Yankees.

June 28: 8 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 2 BB, 8 K.

Aug. 26: 6.1 IP, 5 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 2 BB, 8 K, 1 HR.

Those are some impressive numbers, mainly the strikeout numbers, and for a team that strikes out a lot to begin with, this isn’t a matchup I would feel comfortable with.

13. Phil Hughes
Remember last season when in his first season not with the Yankees Phil Hughes was making history with his walk totals and leading the league in fewest walks per nine and most strikeouts per walks. Well, Phil Hughes sucks again just like he did on the Yankees. Hughes has given up 183 hits in 154 1/3 innings, leads the league in home runs allowed with 29 and has pitched to a 4.43 ERA. So why is he this high on the list? Because I spent a lot of time writing and talking about Phil Hughes from 2007-2013 and a lot of that wasn’t exactly shining a great light on Hughes.

This spot in the rankings isn’t about talent for Hughes. It’s about all of those postseason wins for the Yankees over the Twins coupled with Hughes’ tumultuous time with the Yankees. The Yankees overcame the Angels in 2009 like the Red Sox overcame the Yankees in 2004. If the Twins are going to overcome the Yankees, why wouldn’t it be in a one-game playoff with Hughes on the mound? If he were to pitch this game and win it would be the worst kind of disaster imaginable and the darkest moment for the Yankees since losing Games 6 and 7 at home in the 2004 ALCS.

14. Colby Lewis
Colby Motherf-cking Lewis. That’s how I refer to him in my apartment. Lewis has defined mediocrity in his career, except when it comes to pitching against the Yankees. In 2008 and 2009, he was pitching in Japan. In 2010, he was beating the Yankees in Game 2 of the 2010 ALCS (5.2 IP, 6 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 3 BB, 6 K, 1 HR) and Game 6 of the 2010 ALCS (8 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 3 BB, 7 K).

Lewis has already pitched against the Yankees with their season on the line and he ended it with that dominant Game 6 performance. He has spent his career going up and down from the majors to the minors to Japan and back. He has nothing to lose and absolutely no pressure if given the ball for this game. He’s not a star and he’s not a high-priced arm, who is paid to win a game like this. He’s just a 36-year-old who led the league in losses (14) last year waiting for the chance to end another Yankees season.

15. Cole Hamels
The second-biggest pitching acquisition at the trade deadline after David Price, Hamels has seen the Yankees in the playoffs before when he pitched the pivotal Game 3 of the 2009 World Series and got embarrassed. Hamels blew a 3-0 lead at home, gave up a two-run home run to A-Rod and a game-tying RBI single to Andy Pettitte(!) and lasted just 4 2/3 innings, giving up five earned runs. Hamels had been pretty bad all season and had talked about just wanting the season to end a year after he was NLCS MVP and World Series MVP for the Phillies. Now he is out of Philadelphia and in Texas for the next three years and possibly four as part of almost a second career.

Hamels is a hero in Philadelphia and was already one there when he fell apart against the Yankees in the 2009 World Series because he delivered the city their first World Series win since 1980. Now he can deliver Rangers fans their first World Series ever. That’s a pretty good carrot and stick to chase.

16. Dallas Keuchel
He’s Cliff Lee 2.0. If the Yankees see him on next Tuesday, it’s about as close to a guaranteed loss as you can get in this unpredictable game. The Yankees have enough trouble hitting left-handed pitching as is, but when you mix in the fact that they can’t take their walks and have to swing at quality strikes in the zone, it’s a recipe for disaster.

Keuchel has pitched twice against the Yankees this season and here are his lines:

June 25: 9 IP, 6 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 12 K.

Aug. 25: 7 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 9 K.

If you can’t do simple math, that’s no runs and 10 baserunners over 16 innings and 21 strikeouts.

Last year, Keuchel wasn’t as good as he is this year and even then he pitched once against the Yankees: 8 IP, 7 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 0 BB, 5 K.

If you want to relive Game 1 or Game 5 of the 2009 World Series or Game 3 of the 2010 ALCS then you should want the Yankees to see Keuchel in the wild-card game. If you’re a Yankees fan, he’s the last thing you want to see.

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Blogs • Monday Mentions • Yankees

Sep 28, 2015

Monday Mentions: Bad Pitching, Hitting, Managing and Contracts

The good news is that the Yankees are going to the playoffs for the first time in three years. The bad news is they’re going to be in the one-game playoff.

Joe Girardi

The Yankees are going to be hosting the one-game playoff next Tuesday thanks to what happened last week in Toronto. The good news is that they’re going to the playoffs for the first time in three years. The bad news is they’re in the one-game playoff. The worse news is if they win the one-game playoff, they’re likely going to have to go to Toronto and not Kansas City for the first two games of the ALDS.

Here is another installment of “Monday Mentions” focused on questions and comments from Twitter about what happened over the last week to the Yankees.

I’m a Chasen Shreve fan, so it’s hard for me to talk badly about him, considering he was good for and only recently fell apart. I’m not sure if it’s fatigue or that the league has adjusted to him or a combination of the two, but something is certainly off with him. Look at these two pitching lines from him:

First 50 appearances: 53.1 IP, 33 H, 12 R, 11 ER, 27 BB, 60 K, 6 HR, 1.86 ERA, 1.125 WHIP.

Last seven appearances: 4.1 IP, 11 H, 6 R, 6 ER, 5 BB, 4 K, 3 HR, 12.46 ERA, 3.695 WHIP.

The guy was lights out for nearly the entire season and helped save the bullpen and essentially the summer when Andrew Miller was on the disabled list. Outside of Shreve and Dellin Betances, and I guess Justin Wilson, there was no one and I mean no one else who could get an out in the bullpen. That’s when Esmil Rogers and David Carpenter were still being asked to pitch regularly. Here’s to hoping Shreve bounces back quickly and these last seven appearances goes down as nothing more than a bad stretch at a bad time.

https://twitter.com/Thereal_ktex/status/646513736316923905

After playing in the one-game playoff, the next scariest part of the postseason is that Joe Girardi will sit down and try to decide which pitchers not named Masahiro Tanaka, Luis Severino, Michael Pineda, CC Sabathia, Andrew Miller, Dellin Betances and Justin Wilson he is going to carry in the playoffs. After those seven, there really isn’t anyone worthy of a spot, but five or six more pitchers are going to make it.

If the Yankees win the one-game playoff and reach the ALDS and trail in any of those games are in any of the games in the postseason at all, Girardi needs to realize the game is not lost. You would think this would be obvious, but in the 2011 ALDS, he brought in Luis Ayala twice before bringing in David Robertson once, in games the Yankees started to mount comebacks in. In the 2009 World Series, he brought in Brian Bruney and Phil Coke into the ninth inning of Game 1 and they gave up two runs to increase their deficit from 4-0 to 6-0. In the bottom of the ninth, the Yankees had two on with no outs to start the inning. They only scored one run, but they were one swing away from being back in the game. Don’t bring B and C and D relievers into a playoff game. The division was already lost partly because of this.

https://twitter.com/MattyinMaine/status/646467891886452736

I never wanted Jacoby Ellsbury. I wrote about it the second Robinson Cano signed with the Mariners and the Yankees turned around and threw their Cano money at Ellsbury. It was the exact type of signing the Yankees preached about avoiding in the future because they were going through the effects from the contracts given to Alex Rodriguez, Mark Teixeira and CC Sabathia and what they had previously endured with Jason Giambi. But that doesn’t mean I want to call Jacoby Ellsbury “The Thief”. I would much rather call him something that resembles him earning his $130,511.46 per game.

Outside of one great season in Boston, Ellsbury has been Brett Gardner. You could even say Gardner has been better than him. So why did the team give Gardner $13 million a season and give Ellsbury $21.1 million per season? They essentially bid against themselves since the Red Sox supposedly didn’t even make an offer to Ellsbury and none of the other big spenders were about to give that kind of money to a player whose entire game is based on speed and who is on the other side of 30.

It’s not out of the question that Ellsbury was given the worst contract in Yankees history. Everyone will always point to Carl Pavano, but he made his entire deal in less than two years of Ellsbury’s, and Ellsbury’s is a seven-year deal. If he’s this bad and this unproductive and this injury prone as a 32-year-old center fielder, what exactly is he going to be when he’s 36 and 37?

Hey, if me calling Ellsbury “The Thief” and Chase Headley “The Bum” could in any way turn around their seasons with a week to go and the one-game playoff waiting next Tuesday, I will gladly create a negative name for every player on the team. Though it will be hard to think of one for Dellin Betances and Andrew Miller.

I gave Chase Headley the nickname “The Bum” recently because he perfectly fits the description of a “bum.” Well, so does Jacoby Ellsbury, but he’s already “The Thief,” so I have to spread the names around.

I remember the rumors that Headley’s agent started that he had an offer for five years and $65 million on the table. I know this was a rumor and never actually a real offer because his agent wouldn’t have had time to leak this number to the media because Headley would have been signing it as fast as humanly possible. Headley received four years and $52 million from the Yankees because they were desperate for a third baseman and there was nowhere else to turn on the free-agent market. If the team willing to spend the most money needed to fill a position and they gave you one year and $13 million less than you reportedly were offered, well, it never happened.

Headley has been horrible. He hasn’t hit for average, he hasn’t fit for power, he has played some of the worst defense in the league, he has no speed and his throws are wild. Is there an opposite of a five-tool player because that’s what Headley is.

https://twitter.com/Shane_Corey/status/646854052203102208

Joe Girardi definitely had a hand in the Yankees losing the division over the last week-plus when he turned to Triple-A relievers and made questionable decisions in the biggest games of the season. But for as bad as Girardi has been recently and for as much as I have crushed him, there are two real reasons why the Yankees lost the division:

Chris Capuano
The Yankees gave Capuano $5 million to return this season after he pitched to a 4.25 ERA in 65 2/3 innings last year for them (after he was released by the last-place Red Sox on July 1). You know who else got a one-year, $5 million deal? Stephen Drew. (We’ll get to him.) I guess a one-year, $5 million deal is the going rate for pitchers and players that aren’t good and that no one else wants. I’m pretty sure neither of those players was going to get that much money from any other team in baseball.

But it’s not about the money with Capuano. It’s about the fact that he was given three starts in May and lost all of them. And then he was brought into an extra-inning game against the Nationals on June 10 and lost that. And then in his next and what was his last start (to this point), he gave up five earned runs and got only two outs in the first inning in Texas, but luckily, the offense backed him with a 21-run game.

Second Base
All season we had to watch Stephen Drew and Brendan Ryan struggle to get base hits and at times struggle to field despite supposedly playing because of their defense. Everyone in the world had a theory as to why the two were being given unlimited chances to succeed while Rob Refsnyder kept on playing in Triple-A. Eventually, I gave up and just figured there was no chance Refsnyder would be given another chance, even after September call-ups, and had to settle for the idea he would have to win the job in spring training next year (though he should have won the job in spring training this year). Then, with a postseason berth on the line, Refsnyder started a game, and another one and another one and kept on starting. Between Refsnyder against left-handed pitchers (and sometimes against right-handed pitchers) and Dustin Ackley against right-handed pitchers, the Yankees suddenly had an unacceptable Major League platoon and weren’t giving up an out every time that spot came up in the order.

Now Ackley hadn’t been on the team all season and once he was traded to the Yankees at the deadline he instantly went on the disabled list after about 15 minutes. But Refsnyder has been with the organization and wasn’t allowed to play nearly the whole season until the stretch run with the team trying to clinch a playoff spot? How does that make any sense? If the Yankees really wanted him to wait until next season, they would be giving him at-bats here and there over these final weeks to continue to get his feet wet in the majors. But to make him the starting second baseman as part of a platoon with Ackley, while Drew and Ryan continue to sit goes against everything we have been led to believe by the Yankees this season.

Now that #GiveRobTheJob has worked and Capuano no longer hurts the team as a member of the rotation and barely a member of the bullpen, the Yankees are a better team. But they could have been this team all season and because they weren’t, they have to play in the one-game playoff.

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Blogs • Yankees

Sep 24, 2015

The One-Game Playoff Survival Kit

I have come up with a survival kit to get through the one-game playoff and the potential letdown of the one-game playoff.

Masahiro Tanaka

The day that Major League Baseball announced there would be a five-team playoff format with a one-game playoff for the wild card, I began to worry. I knew at some point this new system would backfire and force the Yankees into nerve-racking wild-card situation, and after Wednesday’s 4-0 loss to the Blue Jays, it’s official: the Yankees are going to the one-game playoff.

I have long been afraid of the game that’s going to take place at Yankee Stadium (if the Yankees don’t blow this lead as well) in 12 days. One game to determine the Yankees’ season. One game to decide if they will go on to play the Royals (or Blue Jays if they keep winning) in the ALDS, or if they will go home like the other 10 postseason-less AL teams after playing just one postseason game. If the game is anything like Tuesday and Wednesday in Toronto, I’m not sure if I’ll make it mentally, physically or emotionally. That’s why I have come up with a One-Game Playoff Survival Kit to get through the one-game playoff and the potential letdown of the one-game playoff.

Oxygen Tank and Mask

Oxygen Tank

This is the most important item to have. Between panic attacks and hyperventilating, breathing into a brown paper bag isn’t going to cut it. I figure the one-game playoff will about three hours. That means I will need six 30-minute tanks to get through it. If it goes past three hours, it will probably have gone to extra innings and that means I will probably have passed out, so I won’t need additional tanks.

Bottles of Water

Poland Spring

If the Yankees lose the one-game playoff, I plan on going off the grid and into hiding for an extended period of time because the season will be over and the Mets’ postseason won’t have even started yet. Since I don’t plan on leaving my bunker indefinitely, I’m going to need water and a lot of it to stay alive.

Flashlight and Batteries

Flashlight and Batteries

I would like to think there will be light or electricity wherever I’m hiding, but you never know. Flashlights and batteries are always recommended in planning survival for natural disasters and after blowing an eight-game division lead and losing (if it happens) the one-game playoff, well that’s basically a natural disaster.

Old Cell Phone

Cell Phone

I won’t be watching cable or going on the Internet or using technology of any kind and I will be cutting off my connection to the world. However, I might need to make a call here or there in the event of an emergency, so a flip phone that doesn’t have Internet capabilities will work.

Clif Bars

Clif Bars

I’m not even sure if I’ve had one of these. If I have, I’ve had only one or part or one or a bite of one. They might taste awful for all I know, but I know they don’t go bad and astronauts eat them in space, so if they’re good enough for space, they’re good enough for me.

Cliff Lee Sad Songs Playlist

lee
There’s a good chance the Yankees face the Astros in the one-game playoff, and if that happens, the Yankees are most likely going to face Dallas Keuchel. In two starts against the Yankees this season, Keuchel is 2-0 with this pitching line: 16 IP, 9 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 21 K. Keuchel is Cliff Lee 2.0 against the Yankees and this means the Astros need to not be in the one-game playoff.

The songs I used to cope with Cliff Lee choosing the Phillies over the Yankees in 2010 will help me deal with another enormous disaster. But once I have let all of the sad emotions run their course, I will need a pick-me-up and that is …

Christmas Music

Frank Sinatra

I’m against listening to Christmas music outside of Christmas season, but Christmas music puts me in the best mood, so I’m all for breaking my own rule to overcome potential heartbreak and devastation.

2009 Yankees World Series DVD

2009

Six years feels like forever. It might as well have been 60 years at this point. The 2010 ALCS loss thanks to Cliff, who should have been a Yankee. The 2011 ALDS loss thanks to no one getting a hit with the bases loaded in Game 5. The 2012 ALCS loss thanks to Mark Teixeira, A-Rod, Curtis Granderson and Nick Swisher. The 2013 and 2014 seasons thanks to injuries. 2009 was a long time ago, so it’s time relive it.

The Last Night of the Yankee Dynasty by Buster Olney

The Last Night of the Yankee Dynasty

Sure, the title sounds depressing, but the book actually takes you through the creation of the most recent Yankees dynasty. And when you’re stuck watching a team that includes Jacoby Ellsbury and Chase Headley, reading about and remembering a better time is necessary.

Alcohol … Any Kind

Alcohol

Beer, wine, whiskey, gin, rum, vodka, tequila, Twisted Tea, wine coolers, you name it and I will be sure to have it in stock to get through this. I have never been someone to just drink a glass of straight whiskey or tequila, but I think that’s going to have to change within the next two weeks.

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Blogs • Yankees

Sep 24, 2015

The AL East Is Over

The Yankees needed to win two out of three in Toronto to have a chance at the division, but they didn’t and now the race for the division is over. The Yankees are going to be a wild-card team.

Alex Rodriguez

Wednesday and Thursday night felt like playoff games. The Yankees had two games remaining against the Blue Jays with a 3.5-game deficit in the AL East with 13 games left in the season. Both games were must-win games for the Yankees when it came to winning the division with Tuesday being Game 6 of a playoff series they were trailing 3-2 in and Wednesday being Game 7 if they were to win on Tuesday. Lose either game and the AL East would be over.

The Yankees won on Tuesday after blowing a 2-0 lead and a 3-2 lead thanks to a Greg Bird three-run home run in the 10th inning. Joe Girardi used Justin Wilson (seven pitches), Dellin Betances (20 pitches) and Andrew Miller (42 pitches) to pitch the last four innings after Luis Severino gave the team an impressive six-inning, two-run effort, setting the stage for an AL East Game 7 on Wednesday night.

I didn’t want Ivan Nova to pitch Wednesday’s game, but there wasn’t another option. After Nova’s return sent Adam Warren to the bullpen, Nova’s incompetence sent Warren back to the rotation, so he wasn’t an option for the game, and with Masahiro Tanaka nursing a hamstring injury and Nathan Eovaldi being shut down, Nova won the start by default. But like that John Sterling saying goes, 11 days after Nova couldn’t get through two innings against the Blue Jays, there he was putting up zero after zero against them in Toronto with the chance to win the division over the final two weeks of the season.

With two out and no one on in the sixth, Nova’s 110th pitch of the night was a ball and Russell Martin went to first on a six-pitch walk. I told my girlfriend, “That’s it for him,” and sure enough, YES panned to Joe Girardi walking up the dugout steps. Girardi went to the mound and took the ball from Nova, who looked as good as he did in Game 1 (but kind of Game 2) of the 2011 ALDS against the Tigers, and then Girardi ruined the game.

First, Girardi gave the ball to James Pazos, who has faced 14 Major League batters in his career, to face the left-handed hitting Ryan Goins. On an 0-2 pitch, Goins ripped a line-drive single to center and Martin ran to third. After four pitches, Pazos was pulled.

Next, Girardi went to Caleb Cotham, the 27-year-old rookie, who has allowed 11 hits (two home runs) and five earned runs in eight career Major League innings, to face Yankee killer Kevin Pillar. On the first pitch, Pillar singled up the middle, Martin scored to give the Blue Jays a 1-0 lead and Goins went to second. Cotham stayed in to face the Blue Jays’ No. 9 hitter Ezequiel Carrera and he walked him on six pitches. He finally got out of the inning when he got Ben Revere to fly out to left on a 2-0 pitch though if a lesser defender than Brett Gardner had been out there, it might have been a bases-clearing double or triple.

The Yankees were unable to score in the top of the seventh, despite having two on and two out for Dustin Ackley, who hit a line drive right to Pillar in center. The Yankees had still been held scoreless and trailed 1-0, but Marcus Stroman’s pitch count was at 95 and the Blue Jays would have to turn the game over to the their shaky pen and the one flaw of their team, which had blown the game night before and had blown a three-run lead to the Yankees in Toronto in August.

Due up for the Blue Jays in the seventh were AL MVP Josh Donaldson, Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion. Three right-handed hitters and the heart of the best order in the entire league. In an ideal world, which reliever would make the most sense to face them? Betances, obviously. But unfortunately, we don’t live in an ideal world. We live in Girardi’s world where relievers have set innings and because Miller was unavailable, Betances was the closer for the night and ninth inning was his and maybe an out in the eighth inning. But not the seventh inning. Not the inning that made the most sense for the best right-handed reliever in the world to face three of the best right-handed hitters in the world in a row. Instead of Betances, Girardi brought in Andrew Bailey, who has thrown five innings in the Major Leagues since July 12, 2013. In the last 26-plus months, Bailey has faced 22 hitters in the majors, yet here he was being asked to hold a one-run deficit against the best 2-3-4 in the majors.

Donaldson crushed a 1-1 pitch to left field for his 40th double of the season to lead off the inning before Bailey got Bautista to ground out for the first out of the eighth. With Donaldson on third and one out, I thought it made the most sense to intentionally walk Encarnacion and then bring in Wilson to face Justin Smoak, which would force Smoak to turn around and hit from the right side. I thought Girardi was on the same page as me when he called for the intentional walk of Encarnacion, but then he left Bailey in.

The move worked out momentarily as Bailey struck out Smoak with Encarncion stealing second on the swinging third strike. Two on and two out for Russell Martin, the former Yankees catcher, who they let leave after the 2012 season because they felt Francisco Cervelli could be their catcher of the future, and who has played in the postseason every year (and will again this year) since leaving the Yankees, while they haven’t played in it once since he left. Martin fell behind 1-2, but after working the count to 2-2, he got a 94-mph fastball from Bailey right down the middle and he turned it around and ended the Yankees’ division hopes in one swing.

Outside of the All-Star break, the 2015 Yankees have been together and playing together since mid-February, more than seven months ago. And after those more than seven months that included the six-week spring training and now 151 regular-season games, it was James Pazos, Caleb Cotham and Andrew Bailey, who have now pitched a combined 17 innings for the Yankees, that decided their 2015 postseason fate.

How could Girardi let those three pitchers decide the biggest game of the season? According to what Girardi told reporters after the game, he was planning to use Justin Wilson in the eighth and Dellin Betances in the ninth with Andrew Miller unavailable. But how is it possible that Girardi managed for a situation that never presented itself and never actually existed in the biggest game of the season? How is that he was managing ahead in a tie game and then a game the team was trailing in? How could he play for the next inning with the division hanging in the balance in the inning right in front of him?

Maybe I shouldn’t care that the Yankees aren’t going to win the East and won’t go straight into the ALDS. Girardi and Brian Cashman clearly don’t. Girardi made that clear with his pitching moves on Wednesday, and Cashman made it clear the other day when he said he didn’t care how the Yankees got into the playoffs, but just that they got in. It was a fitting comment from the general manager of a team that made no trade deadline moves other than to acquire Dustin Ackley and whose team blew an eight-game lead since the deadline. It’s hard to blame Cashman for saying, at this point, that he is content with a wild-card berth since Cashman saying he would be disappointed if the team didn’t win the East would be him saying he’s disappointed in himself after the Yankees gave away their division lead in less two weeks in August. So of course he acted as though the wild-card berth is just as good as winning the division.

The wild-card berth is just as good as winning the division if you actually win the wild-card game. Right now, the Yankees would play the Astros in the one-game playoff, but the Twins and Angels are both within 1.5 games of the Astros, so the Yankees’ opponent is anything but finalized. The best-case scenario for the Yankees if they’re able to hold on to their four-game lead for the first wild-card spot is that those three teams have to go to Game 162 or longer to figure out who the second wild-card team is, so that they can’t set up their best starter to face the Yankees.

Over the next two weeks, outside of actually clinching, the Yankees’ top priority will be to give Tanaka as much rest as possible while also keeping him sharp and lining him up to start on Tuesday, Oct. 6 at the Stadium. The Yankees aren’t catching the Blue Jays now and the focus needs to be on preparation for 12 days from now. Some people might hold on to the pipe dream that the Yankees could overcome a 3.5-game deficit in 11 games to win the East and go straight through to the ALDS, but it’s not happening.

The Yankees needed to win two out of three in Toronto to have a chance at the division and with Girardi managing Wednesday night’s game as if it were some throwaway game with a postseason berth already clinched, the race for the division is over. The Yankees are going to the one-game playoff.

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