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Author: Neil Keefe

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NFL Week 11 Picks

During baseball season, Yankees off days always feel like forever, but in reality, it’s the time between games during a bye week in football season that actually feels like forever. With the Giants suffering another

Tom Coughlin and Eli Manning

During baseball season, Yankees off days always feel like forever, but in reality, it’s the time between games during a bye week in football season that actually feels like forever. With the Giants suffering another heartbreaking loss, to the Patriots no less, the last thing you want to do is wait another 10 days for the all-important and potentially division-deciding game against the Redskins to take place. Unfortunately, there’s nothing to, but wait. Wait and make picks.

(Home team in caps)

JACKSONVILLE -3 over Tennessee
This would be “that” game of the week, but it’s on Thursday Night Football and everyone will watch since it’s the only game on and because the AFC South is so bad, this game actually has playoff implications. The 3-6 Jaguars are one game back in the division and the 2-7 Titans are two games back. Yes, two games back at 2-7. No one should ever say anything bad about the NFC East.

CAROLINA -7.5 over Washington
I don’t like that the Redskins are still in the NFC East race. It’s supposed to be the Giants vs. Eagles at this point and the Redskins are supposed to be battling the Cowboys to not finish in last place even though finishing in last place in the NFL gives you a schedule advantage the following season, so if you’re going to lose, you might as well lose big. It’s time for the Redskins to turn into the Redskins and go on a nice losing streak and clear the way for the NFC East two become a two-team competition.

Oakland -2.5 over DETROIT
The two hardest teams in the league to read are playing each other and the only reasoning I have in taking the Raiders and that I really, really, really don’t like this Lions team.

Dallas -1 over MIAMI
Tony Romo is back. Here is what the Cowboys did without Tony Romo:

Lost to Atlanta 39-28.
Lost to New Orleans 26-20 in overtime.
Lost to New England 30-6.
Lost to the Giants 27-20.
Lost to Seattle 13-12.
Lost to Philadelphia 33-27 in overtime.
Lost to Tampa Bay 10-6.

That’s an 0-7 record with five of the losses by seven points or less, four of the losses by six points or less, two of the losses by four points or less, two of the losses in overtime and one of the losses by one point. During those seven games, the Cowboys started Brandon Weeden and Matt Cassel. It’s very likely that the Cowboys would have won the NFC East if Romo had been healthy all year, but he wasn’t, and at 2-7 with seven games left, the Cowboys will have to be perfect and win out to reach the playoffs. It’s not going to happen, but I have a terrible feeling they are going to make things interesting because the Giants and Eagles will let them make things interesting.

Indianapolis +6 over ATLANTA
The Colts are 2-0 with Matt Hasselbeck as their quarterback this season and 2-5 with Andrew Luck as their quarterback and I feel more confident in the Colts with Hasselbeck playing. Couple that with the fact that the Falcons are a fraudulent 6-3 team that has lost three of four with the one win in that span being a 10-7 win over the Titans and this game feels almost too easy to pick.

St. Louis +2 over BALTIMORE
For some reason, I backed the Rams to cover a touchdown against the Bears last week. And when Todd Gurley brought them down the field with relative ease to give them an early 7-0 lead, I thought it would be smooth sailing to a W. Instead, they lost 37-13 at home. So why am I backing them this week? Good question.

New York Jets -2.5 over HOUSTON
The Jets’ season is over as a result of their loss to the Bills last week on Thursday Night Football. At 5-4, the Jets are in seventh place in the AFC playoff picture and they don’t have the head-to-head tiebreaker against the Raiders or Bills. The Jets would have to finish at least 5-2 to make the playoffs and with the Dolphins, Giants, Cowboys, Patriots and Bills still on their schedule, that’s just not going to happen. I do think the Jets will stay in the race only too look back at their home loss to the Bills as the reason as to why they don’t make the playoffs. And in that loss, they turned the ball over four times, blew two fourth downs with a chance to win and still only lost by five. Better luck next year!

Tampa Bay +5.5 over PHILADELPHIA
The Cowboys are done in the NFC East race and the next step is to knock either the Eagles or Redskins out of it. The Giants aren’t going to make it easy on themselves to win the division, so it’s going to take a lot of rooting against their direct competition.

Denver -1 over CHICAGO
Brock Osweiler makes his first career NFL start on his birthday. You don’t lose on your birthday. That’s a fact. At least not at the casino. So it might be true for the NFL too.

Kansas City -3 over SAN DIEGO
Could the Chiefs win the AFC West despite starting 1-5? It’s not really that crazy. The Broncos are 7-2, but are now without Peyton Manning and their remaining games are against Chicago, New England, San Diego, Oakland, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati and San Diego. The Chiefs are 4-5 and three games back, but they finish against San Diego, Buffalo, Oakland, San Diego, Baltimore, Cleveland and Oakland. It’s not going to be easy, but the Chiefs are very much alive in the division (and the wild-card) and could be looking at hosting a playoff game at Arrowhead after the way they started the season.

MINNESOTA 0 over Green Bay
If you’re not done with the Packers, you should be. The Packers have gone from NFC favorites to on their way out of the playoff picture. Right now, the Packers would be the 5-seed in the NFC and would play their first-round game at MetLife against the Giants, and we all know how the Packers do in the postseason against the Giants. A Vikings win on Sunday would improve them to 8-2 and make the Packers 6-4, creating a two-game gap in the NFC North with the Vikings holding the head-to-head tiebreaker with six games to play. I’m a Vikings fan when it doesn’t interfere with being a Giants fan because of my girlfriend (there will be issues in Week 16), and this week will be the hardest I have ever rooted for the Vikings.

SEATTLE -12.5 over San Francisco
The Seahawks are done unless they go on at least a 6-1 run, but even then, it still might not be enough. I was astonished that the Seahawks’ defense let the Cardinals go to Seattle and put up 39 points on them and that the Seahawks weren’t able to hold on to their lead after overcoming an early 19-0 deficit. The best cure for a fledging Seahawks team that is watching their season spiral out of control nine-plus months after their head coach gave away their second straight championship is Blaine Gabbert and the 49ers. This is the type of game the Seahawks dominate and it would be a victory for the 49ers if they score six points in it.

ARIZONA -5 over Cincinnati
I have been hot and cold on the Cardinals all season, but on Sunday Night Football in Seattle they showed me a lot. Now it could be a trap since I have never believed in Carson Palmer and have likely been way too high on the Seahawks, but going to Seattle and scoring 39 points is impressive even if the Legion of Boom isn’t what it once was. And since I have never been a believer in the Bengals during the Andy Dalton era or at any point this season even with them starting 8-0, their embarrassing loss at home to the Texans and to Brian Hoyer and T.J. Yates only reinforced my opinion on them. The Bengals couldn’t solve the Texans’ defense, which has underachieved and been dominated all season, and they certainly aren’t going to have a better showing against the Cardinals’ defense, which might be the best in the game.

Buffalo +7 over NEW ENGLAND
If the NFL didn’t have insane rules about a catch is and if it knew what a catch is then Odell Beckham Jr. wins the game for the Giants on Sunday and the Giants would have four straight wins over the Patriots and the Patriots would no longer be undefeated. The Giants also would have won if Landon Collins could catch an easy game-ending interception or if the defense could make a stop on fourth-and-10 or just make a stop at all with the game on the line on the final drive.

The Giants once again exposed the Patriots to the rest of the league just like they always do and now it’s up to their seven remaining opponents to take notice and capitalize and it starts with Rex Ryan’s Bills. The Bills control their own destiny for a playoff berth and going to Gillette and playing the Julian Edelman-less Patriots is a good place to start on their quest to reach the postseason for the first time since 1999.

Last week: 7-7-0
Season: 74-68-4

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NFL Week 10 Picks

It’s been a pretty mediocre picks season outside of one incredible week.

Eli Manning

I usually use this space to talk about the state of the Giants or something Giants related, but I’m holding on to that for tomorrow with my thoughts on the latest chapter of Giants-Patriots. It’s been just over four years since the two teams met in the 2011 regular season and nearly four years since they met in Super Bowl XLVI. This will be the third regular-season meeting between the Manning/Coughlin Giants and the Brady/Belichick Patriots and their fifth overall meeting including the two Super Bowls. The Giants hold a 3-1 edge and it’s going to be incredibly difficult to get it to 4-1.

It’s been a pretty mediocre picks season outside of Week 3, which has carried the record to this point and kept me afloat and has helped me avoid falling to .500 or worse. There are eight weeks left in the season to create enough separation that the postseason won’t have to act as the postseason for my picks too the way it did last year when I entered the Super Bowl with a .500 record and finished the season with an under-.500 record thanks to Pete Carroll. That needs to change.

(Home team in caps)

NEW YORK JETS -2.5 over Buffalo
This might be the hardest game of the week and it’s the first game of the week. There’s nothing like getting the week started with a Thursday Night Football toss-up in a divisional matchup that has enormous playoff implications. This game could be a season-deciding game for both teams and could be the difference in both Todd Bowles and Rex Ryan being viewed as saviors to their respective insane fan bases. Ryan’s Jets never showed up for games of this magnitude and I have a feeling his Bills team won’t either given their performance on the road this season. It’s not going to be the homecoming Ryan hoped for when he was hired by the Bills.

GREEN BAY -12 over Detroit
Aaron Rodgers threw for 77 yards in Week 8. Last week, he had 38 yards at halftime before nearly completing a miraculous comeback in Carolina against the undefeated Panthers. Instead, the Packers lost their second straight game and now they’re 6-2 and tied atop the NFC North with the underrated Vikings. I’m not on good terms with Rodgers or the Packers after the last two weeks, but with a return to Lambeau Field against the Lions, who somehow have fired everyone in their organization except for Jim Caldwell, this game is going to get out of hand.

TAMPA BAY -1 over Dallas
The Buccaneers aren’t good. The Cowboys aren’t good. Both teams are going nowhere, but just to make sure, it would be nice if the Cowboys’ season could officially be ended before Tony Romo comes back.

Carolina -6 over TENNESSEE
The Panthers have screwed me over a lot this season. They screwed me over last week by beating the Packers. They screwed me over the week before by blowing an easy cover against the Colts. They screwed me over two weeks before that with a win in Seattle. It’s time for me to finally get in on the Panthers for the long haul since their schedule isn’t exactly challenging the rest of the way. But I fully expect them to let me down as early as this week.

ST. LOUIS -6 over Chicago
Everyone is talking about how Jeremy Langford is the new Matt Forte because that’s what people do. After Week 1, Marcus Mariota was going to be the best quarterback in history. The way Nick Foles was going to be two seasons ago. The way Andrew Luck was going to be after he was drafted. Langford might be good and might be the future for the Bears after this season given Forte’s age, contract situation and now MCL injury, but his big first game also came against the Chargers, who have the worst run defense in the league. It’s going to be a much different story for Langford and Jay Cutler this week.

WASHINGTON +1.5 over New Orleans
I can’t believe the Giants couldn’t win in New Orleans, but the Titans could. That’s how bad the Giants’ defense was two weeks ago. I was close to thinking the Superdome Saints were back, but losing to the Titans at home in overtime certainly proves that the Superdome Saints still don’t exist. If the Superdome Saints doesn’t exist then the Outside the Superdome Saints can’t possibly exist.

Miami +6.5 over PHILADELPHIA
Let’s Go Dolphins! It’s going to be “Let’s Go (insert team playing the Eagles)!” for the rest of the season since they are the Giants’ direct and only competition for the NFC East. As I have already written, the Giants and Eagles are both going to be 8-7 or one of them will be and one of them will be 7-8 and the season will come down to their Week 17 game at MetLife, which will be flexed by NBC to Sunday Night Football. The Giants need to go 3-3 to be 8-7 going into that game. It would help if the Eagles just started losing frequently, so I don’t have to worry about a winner-take-all game to finish the season.

Cleveland +5 over PITTSBURGH
I’m not sure what Mike Pettine is doing in Cleveland by continuing to go with Josh McCown over Johnny Manziel when McCown is healthy, and it’s going to cost him his job. Pettine has all these big plans for Manziel to eventually become the Browns’ starter after “learning” for two years under Brian Hoyer and Josh McCown, but this isn’t Eli Manning under Kurt Warner or Aaron Rodgers under Brett Favre. This is Brian Hoyer and Josh McCown we’re talking about. What could Manziel possibly have to gain by watching them play and listening to what they have to say? If anything, Manziel will regress as a backup under them and pick up bad habits and losing traits.

Jacksonville +5.5 over BALTIMORE
Somewhere someone who isn’t a Jaguars fan or a Ravens fan is going to bet on this game and watch it in its entirety. Thank about that.

Minnesota +3 over OAKLAND
Somehow the Vikings are getting 3 points in this game and the only reason I can think of is that the status of Teddy Bridgewater is undetermined. I have lost a lot of picks (and money) over the years to games started by Shaun Hill and if I had to pick a backup quarterback to have in the league, I’d pick Hill. He will go years without playing in a game and still go out and win. Before Week 9, Hill had played in 13 games in the last four season and nine of those games came last year. I know the Raiders are much improved and they have a good young offensive core and a solid defense that beat the Jets and went toe-to-toe with the Raiders, but it’s hard to bet against the Vikings even with the 35-year-old Hill possibly playing. If anything, Hill makes the Vikings even more dangerous.

DENVER -6 over Kansas City
The Broncos looked like the best team in the NFL when they routed the Packers two weeks ago and I strongly believed in them heading into Indianapolis. And when the Broncos returned a ount for a touchdown on teh final play of the first half to cut the the Colts’ lead to 17-7 and then eventually went on to tie the game at 17, I figured htey would win. But then Peyton Manning did what he has done so many times in big games and threw a pick with about six minutes left to seal the win for the Colts.

The loss didn’t just hurt picks-wise and financially, but it hurt in the standings, giving the Broncos their first loss of the season and putting them in a bad position to have home-field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs. That means if the Broncos are going to get back to the Super Bowl, or at least make sure the Patriots don’t, they’re most likely going to have to win at Gillette Stadium this January and I’m not sure they can. If they can’t, it’s up to the Bengals to prevent the Patriots from going to Levi’s Stadium, and I don’t think anyone thinks Andy Dalton is going to outplay Tom Brady with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line. I’m not sure anyone thinks the Bengals will even win a divisional round game to get to the AFC Championship.

NEW YORK GIANTS +7.5 over New England
Jason Pierre-Paul has said that the Giants will get to Tom Brady this week though I’m not sure I believe him. Even though the Giants have won their last three games by getting to Brady, they have nine sacks through the first nine games this season. Those nine games were played against Tony Romo, Kirk Cousins, Tyrod Taylor, Colin Kaepernick, Sam Bradford, Matt Cassel, Drew Brees and Jameis Winston. Two of those quarterbacks are good. Seven of them aren’t. Let’s hope there’s some old defensive magic in this defense and defensive line and they can find it on Sunday afternoon.

SEATTLE -3 over Arizona
After winning the Super Bowl and then handing the next Super Bowl away, I didn’t think the Seahawks would be coming off their bye this season at 4-4 and trailing by two games in the NFC West with the core of their team still intact. But that’s probably what happens when your head coach calls the most controversial play in the history of sports and throws away everything you worked for and all the hits taken and injuries suffered over the course of a season and the punishment that will have lasting effects on your life.

It’s hard not to think that Pete Carroll lost his team and the team’s trust in him after his decision to have Russell Wilson throw the ball on the goal line last February. But it’s also hard not to think that the Seahawks are too good and have too much talent to be a .500 team and let the season slip away from them. Last season, the Seahawks were 3-3 before going on a 9-1 run to finish 12-4. They were 2-4 three weeks ago and are now 4-4 and about to go on a similar run.

CINCINNATI -10.5 over Houston
I don’t want to believe in the Bengals. It goes against my rule about the “Bs” for this season that cost me last season and in seasons before last. I know as soon as I step even one foot on the Bengals bandwagon, it’s going to derail and they are going to lose what should be an obvious win. This game could be that game, but I can’t take the chance that it’s not.

Last week: 5-8-0
Season: 67-61-4

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NFL Week 9 Picks

Intro Intro (Home team in caps) Cleveland +13 over CINCINNATI Green Bay -2.5 over CAROLINA NEW ENGLAND -14 over Washington NEW ORLEANS -7 over Tennessee BUFFALO -3.5 over Miami MINNESOTA -1.5 over St. Louis NEW

Intro

Intro

(Home team in caps)

Cleveland +13 over CINCINNATI

Green Bay -2.5 over CAROLINA

NEW ENGLAND -14 over Washington

NEW ORLEANS -7 over Tennessee

BUFFALO -3.5 over Miami

MINNESOTA -1.5 over St. Louis

NEW YORK JETS -7.5 over Jacksonville

PITTSBURGH -6 over Oakland

New York Giants -2.5 over TAMPA BAY

Atlanta -7 over SAN FRANCISCO

Denver -3 over INDIANAPOLIS

Philadelphia -2.5 over DALLAS

SAN DIEGO -3.5 over Chicago

Last week: 7-6-1
Season: 62-53-4

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BlogsMonday Mentions

Monday Mentions: Thank You, Royals

I would like to take this time to thank the Kansas City Royals for saving myself and other Yankees fans and all non-Mets fans really from living in a world where the Mets are the

Kansas City Royals

I would like to take this time to thank the Kansas City Royals for saving myself and other Yankees fans and all non-Mets fans really from living in a world where the Mets are the champions of baseball. It wasn’t easy, but the Royals only let the Mets hang around for five games in the World Series and capped off ending the Mets’ season by winning against Matt Harvey and Jeurys Familia at Citi Field and in front of Mets fans.

Here is another installment of “Monday Mentions” focused on a mix of questions and comments from Twitter about the Mets playing in the World Series, the Yankees and the Giants.

After the Mets making the World Series, this was the most disgusting part of the entire World Series. It was worse than David Wright possibly becoming a champion or Matt Harvey becoming a postseason hero or Daniel Murphy becoming a postseason legend or Mets fans enjoying happiness.

Johnson was one of the worst Yankees of all time. I mean it’s not fault that Brian Cashman went into the 2014 season with Johnson as his everyday third baseman, but Johnson was so bad the Yankees eventually traded him in a garbage-for-garbage deal to the Red Sox for … Stephen Drew! Not only did Johnson hit .219/.304/.373 in 77 games with the Yankees, but he is the reason Drew became a Yankee. And after playing himself off the Yankees and then off the Red Sox, he was traded to the Orioles and ended up playing in the ALDS and ALCS with the Orioles with the Yankees and Red Sox not reaching the playoffs. Then this year Johnson gets to play in the World Series? Come on, Baseball Gods.

https://twitter.com/SluggerBro/status/659161450993291264

Harold Reynolds is incredibly bad in the booth. For all the people who complained about Tim McCarver over the years, and rightfully so at times, in three innings Reynolds could outdo a full season of Saturday and postseason games of McCarver. Some of his lines were so remarkable that I still can’t believe he said them and can’t believe FOX executives could listen to him and continue to run him out there and have him botch the World Series on national TV.

Reynolds was so bad that he overshadowed Tom Verducci’s corny jokes and constant reminders of storylines and anecdotes every single person, even casual fans, already knew. The majority of people don’t like Joe Buck, but would it be so bad to have Buck call games by himself? He doesn’t feel the need to always talk, lets the game breathe and rarely makes a mistake. Letting Buck get the Vin Scully treatment wouldn’t be the worst thing.

For a while I was starting to wonder why the teams I hate won’t lose. The 2014 Patriots won the Super Bowl. The 2013 Red Sox won the World Series. The 2007 Red Sox won the World Series. The 2004 Red Sox won the World Series. Why can’t any non-New York teams stop these teams from winning championships? The Mets beat Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke and Jon Lester and Jake Arrieta and had the lead in every World Series and needed to blow three of their four losses in the eighth inning or later. I’m glad I can always count on the Mets to keep things in check.

https://twitter.com/RobDEVS/status/661212101122355202

Same here. For the first time since leaving Yankee Stadium following the wild-card game loss, I’m ready to talk about the Yankees. The depression and devastation of the season ending in such miserable fashion has passed and now it’s time to begin the real offseason and get fully into the hot stove and all of the rumors and nonsense that comes with it along with the beat guys enjoying this part of the baseball calendar more than the actual season.

There’s only three-plus months now until the Yankees head to Tampa for spring training to being the 2016 season and there’s no doubt in my mind that there will be at least one significant trade in the coming weeks to shake up a stale roster.

https://twitter.com/Fgerlando/status/660154686037708801

It’s beginning to look like it. It’s insane that Victor Cruz initially injured his calf on Aug. 17 and now it’s Nov. 2, which means Cruz has had an injured calf for 77 days. That’s 11 weeks for a calf “strain.” Jason Pierre-Paul had his index finger amputated and damaged other parts of his hand on July 4 and will be playing in possibly a little over a week.

I’m not saying Cruz isn’t really hurt, and maybe his knee is actually the issue and they’re telling us it’s his calf, but this is bordering on absurd. I don’t want to hear about Cruz catching balls on the sidelines at practice or the release of any of his latest acting or documentary endeavors until he plays in a game.

That was the meanest thing anyone has ever said to me.

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NFL Week 8 Picks

Intro Intro (Home team in caps) NEW ENGLAND -8 over Miami KANSAS CITY -5.5 over Detroit ATLANTA -8 over Tampa Bay Arizona -7 over CLEVELAND ST. LOUIS -7.5 over San Francisco New York Giants +3

Intro

Intro

(Home team in caps)

NEW ENGLAND -8 over Miami

KANSAS CITY -5.5 over Detroit

ATLANTA -8 over Tampa Bay

Arizona -7 over CLEVELAND

ST. LOUIS -7.5 over San Francisco

New York Giants +3 over NEW ORLEANS

Minnesota -2 over CHICAGO

San Diego +4 over BALTIMORE

PITTSBURGH +1 over Cincinnati

HOUSTON -3.5 over Tennessee

New York Jets -3.5 over OAKLAND

Seattle -6 over DALLAS

Green Bay -3 over DENVER

CAROLINA -6.5 over Indianapolis

Last week: 7-7-0
Season: 55-47-3

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