1. After putting up a 10-spot on Thursday, the Yankees did the same on Friday, blowing out the last-place White Sox 10-2. It was the third straight game the Yankees scored double-digit runs, the fourth time in five games they have done so and the sixth time in less two weeks. If only under-.500 teams were part of the postseason the Yankees would be all set.
2. Yes, these wins against bad teams are needed and every one of the 162 games in a season are valuable, but again, the stench left from the Red Sox series and from series against teams currently holding a playoff spot as a whole throughout the season lingers like a skunk waiting for you when you open your garage door. It’s going to take a lot more than tomato baths to remove the smell of this Yankees team, and there’s nothing they can do this weekend to do so. It’s going to take winning games and series over the next two weeks against the Astros, Blue Jays, Tigers and Red Sox to change my perception of a team that pads its stats, run differential and win total against the league’s worst and is humiliated by the league’s best. I’m going to need see the offense show up against pitchers the Yankees didn’t put on waivers earlier this season. I’m going to need to see Jazz Chisholm get a runner in from third with one out against a reliever who will be pitching in October, not flipping his bat during a blowout of a bad team.
3. Again, these games against the lowly White Sox are important, just as the ones against the Nationals, Rays, Cardinals and Twins earlier this month were. But after the Yankees beat the crap out of those teams, they erased everything they accomplished by losing two games in the standings in a single weekend to the Red Sox. That can’t happen again. If the Yankees want to win the division like Chisholm talked about on Thursday, or even win home-field advantage for the wild-card series, they can’t poop their pants next week when they play the best competition in the American League.
5. While the Yankees were lighting up their former teammate in Yoendrys Gomez, the Red Sox lost a home game to the Pirates and the Blue Jays did the same to the Brewers. The Yankees are now one game up in the loss column on the Red Sox for the first wild-card berth and three games back of the Blue Jays in the AL East.
6. As I wrote yesterday, in terms of winning the division, the math is very bad for the Yankees. Possible? Yes. Likely? No. At least from a statistical perspective. But that perspective is based on the teams’ winning percentage to date and their run differential. If you look at the remaining schedules, I do think it’s doable.
If the Yankees are able to pull off a four-game sweep of the White Sox, there’s a very real possibility they could be one game back of the Blue Jays at the end of play on Sunday. (The Brewers have a starting pitching advantage over the Blue Jays on both Saturday and Sunday.) If the Yankees are one game back as of Sunday with 25 games to play, yes I do think they will win the division. Even if they are still three games back as of Sunday, I think they could win the division. I know that sounds crazy, and yes, it is, but hear me out.
Disclaimer: Winning the division isn’t possible if the Yankees’ 12 games over the next two weeks against the Astros, Blue Jays, Tigers and Red Sox play out like the 26 games against those opponents have so far this season: the Yankees are 7-19 against those teams.
7. For this exercise, let’s make it as hard as possible for the Yankees to win the division. Let’s say they are three games back of the Blue Jays after Sunday. The Yankees will have to go at least .500 in the 12 games against the Astros, Blue Jays, Tigers and Red Sox to have a chance. So let’s say they go 6-6, which is the floor of what they can do. Two of those six wins have to come against the Blue Jays and two more have to come against the Red Sox. That means 4-2 against the Blue Jays and Red Sox and 2-4 against the Astros and Tigers.
Let’s say the Yankees drop one of their two games this weekend and so do the Blue Jays. The Yankees would be 76-61 at the end of play on Sunday and the Blue Jays 79-58.
The Yankees then go 6-6 against the Astros, Blue Jays, Tigers and Red Sox and are now 82-67. The Blue Jays have lost two of three to the Yankees during that time, so they are 80-60. In their other nine games, the Blue Jays have gone 4-5 against the Reds, Astros and Orioles and are now 84-65. There are now 13 games left and the Yankees are two games back in the loss column (82-67 to 84-65), but they are really three games back from taking over the division because the Blue Jays already clinched the head-to-head tiebreaker.
The Yankees’ 13 remaining games are against the Twins (3), Orioles (4), White Sox (3) and Orioles (3).
The Blue Jays’ 13 remaining games are against the Rays (4), Royals (3), Red Sox (3) and Rays (3).
That Yankees series against the White Sox is crucial because with the Blue Jays and Red Sox playing each other at the same time, every win means the Yankees gain ground on one of the two and every loss means they lose a game on one of the two. The Blue Jays’ seven remaining games against the Rays are also crucial because they have struggled against the Rays this season, going 1-5.
If the Yankees go 9-4 in those 13 games (one loss in each series) and the Blue Jays go 6-7 in their 13 games, the Yankees win the division. If the Yankees go 8-5, then the Blue Jays need to go 5-8. Unlikely. If the Yankees go 7-6, the Blue Jays need to go 4-9. Very unlikely. I think 9-4 is the floor of what needs to happen, and that may not be good enough.
8. That is a not-so-far-fetched path to winning the division. It could be made a lot easier if the Yankees would just rip off 10 straight wins (like the Blue Jays and Red Sox have both done this season) and the Blue Jays and Red Sox both fall apart. That would be much easier with no math and scoreboard watching involved. Just a good, old-fashioned, double-digit win streak coupled with simultaneous collapses from the Blue Jays and Red Sox. But that’s an abundance of wishful thinking, considering a great deal of wishful thinking is already needed for the Yankees to play well against the league’s best and continue to beat up on the league’s worst. (All of this would be meaningless if the Yankees could have just not blown their eight-game lead over the Blue Jays.)
9. As of now, here is how the pitching matchups line up for the next two weeks:
Saturday: Cam Schlittler vs. Shane Smith
Sunday: Luis Gil vs. Martin Perez
Monday: Off
Tuesday: Max Fried vs. Jason Alexander
Wednesday: Will Warren vs. Christian Javier
Thursday: Carlos Rodon vs. Spencer Arrighetti
Friday: Cam Schlittler vs. Kevin Gausman
Saturday: Luis Gil vs. Max Scherzer
Sunday: Max Fried vs. Chris Bassitt
Monday: Off
Tuesday: Will Warren vs. Casey Mize
Wednesday: Carlos Rodon vs. Chris Paddack
Thursday: Cam Schlittler vs. Jack Flaherty
Friday: Luis Gil vs. Lucas Giolito
Saturday: Max Fried vs. Brayan Bello
Sunday: Will Warren vs. Garrett Crochet
Based on this, the Yankees do miss Framber Valdez, Hunter Brown, Shane Bieber and Tarik Skubal, but having to face Bello and Crochet is as bad as it gets, considering what those two have done to the Yankees this year (the Yankees are 0-5 in games started by those two). It could haven’t been Giolito, Dustin May and rookie Payton Tolle?! Pitchers get hurt and teams adjust their rotations around scheduled days off for important series, so this could all change, but as of now, it’s a better schedule of opposing starters than I figured it would play out to be.
10. Before I get too far ahead of myself and start planning for the strong finish, division title and best-of-3 bye, the Yankees can’t go out and lose on Saturday and Sunday with the Blue Jays winning both days to fall five games back. If that happens, the division is over. And because a Yankees extended winning streak into next week isn’t likely given the opponents and it’s less likely the Blue Jays implode, the deficit can’t go higher than three again. The Yankees have to maintain the deficit or gain on the Blue Jays from here on and out (and oh yeah, also have the Red Sox cooperate and not sneak in win the division themselves).