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Yankees Thoughts: Slumping in Seattle

The Yankees lost their first game of the season with a 2-1 loss in Seattle. Here are 10 thoughts on the Yankees.

1. I finished the most recent Thoughts with this:

The Yankees and Mariners always play weird, tight, low-scoring games, especially in Seattle, and I’m expecting the same over the next three days.

And that’s what we got on Monday night in the series opener as the Yankees lost a 2-1 game in walk-off fashion.

2. I also wrote this in the most recent Thoughts:

It’s hard to believe I could feel any better about the Yankees after their season-opening series than I do right now. Three games, three wins and one run allowed to begin the season is about as good as anyone could ask for.

What I should have written was “It’s hard to believe I could feel any better about the Yankees’ pitching” because that’s really what I feel. I feel good about the pitching, not the ‘Run It Back’ offense. Aside from one surprising inning on Opening Day when the Yankees ambushed Logan Webb with first-pitch swings, the ‘Run It Back’ offense has been doing ‘Run It Back’ offense things with seven runs over the last three games. (I’m sure they will have a one-game explosion soon to prop up their run differential.)

Giancarlo Stanton had a double and single, Aaron Judge and Jose Caballero each had a single and a walk and Ben Rice had a single and that was the entire Yankees’ offense. Trent Grisham went 0-for-4. Cody Bellinger went 0-for-4. Jazz Chisholm went 0-for-4. Austin Wells went 0-for-3 and Ryan McMahon went 0-for-2. The $22 million qualifying offer, the big free-agent signing, the man who says he can have a 50/50 season, the catcher who made the all-World Baseball Classic team and the guy who supposedly changed his swing have all somewhat struggled to open the season.

3. Again, it’s not “just” four games. This season is a continuation of last season because the roster and lineup are the same. So Wells and McMahon sucking doesn’t qualify for “give them time” because they sucked last year and were both below league average. I’m not worried about Wells and McMahon because I expect nothing from them offensively. I’m the least worried about Bellinger because he has the career track record of being very good (though there is precedent for him completely falling off like he did in 2021 and 2022). I’m very worried about Grisham and was all winter because the back of his baseball card is the ultimate ‘One of These Seasons Doesn’t Look Like Any Other’ and because if he does suck he will continue to bat leadoff and start for months before he’s removed from his spot atop the lineup or his starting outfield spot. I’m also worried about Chisholm because anyone who claims they want to have a 50/50 season when their name isn’t Shohei Ohtani or Ronald Acuna is going to do things at the plate they shouldn’t do to try to reach that goal. Chisholm already had a habit of swinging for the fences in counts and situations he shouldn’t and now with the 50/50 proclamation in his head, he will likely do it even more than he already does. Add in the pressure of being an impending free agent and supposedly wanting to get paid $35 million per year on an eight-plus-year deal, and well, yeah, there’s a lot to be worried about with Chisholm.

4. Aaron Boone went away from his lefty-righty alternation with his linuep and tried to stack lefties together against Luis Castillo, who always pitches well against the Yankees, especially since they chose to not trade for him in 2022 and instead traded for Frankie Montas. Boone’s construction didn’t work, Castillo was able to throw six scoreless innings and then when Seattle when to the bullpen, they had beautiful lefty lanes built for them to breeze through.

5. After having a rather easy series and needing to make pretty much zero difficult decisions in San Francisco, Boone was more involved in Monday’s one-run game, and Yankees fans were reminded why they fare so poorly in one-run games with Boone at the helm. Boone chose to let Paul Blackburn pitch a second inning on Monday and inevitably the Mariners walked off the Yankees in that second inning of work.

“I liked him through the bottom of the order there,” Boone said. “They found a couple of holes and beat us.”

Blackburn was allowed to face Brendan Donovan and Cal Raleigh in the ninth. Donovan was batting first in the lineup and Raleigh pinch hit in the 2-hole. Not exactly the bottom of the order, Boone. So if Boone liked Blackburn against 5-6-7 in the eighth and then 8-9 in the ninth, OK. But once the lineup turned over to actual hitters he should have removed him.

6. Or maybe he could have used Camilo Doval for more than two pitches? Boone claims he didn’t want Doval to sit after ending the seventh and then get back up to pitch in the eighth, but he is OK with him doing that exact thing later in the season … after Doval has thrown hundreds of pitches and didn’t just have five-plus months off.

“I’m sure eventually he’ll have plenty of two-ups,” Boone said. Eventually, just not on Monday, two days after Judge mentioned how important every game is after the 2025 season was ruined by the Yankees not valuing every game with equal importance.

7. Knowing Ryan Weathers is a hard-throwing lefty trying to make a strong first impression in his Yankees debut, it made sense he would open the game overthrowing and having trouble throwing strikes.

“I definitely want to be more efficient and be in the zone a little bit more,” Weathers said. “I don’t want to hang my hat on 4 1/3 innings. I want to get deeper into the ballgame, and a lot of that comes from managing the pitch count myself and not falling behind in counts.”

8. Weathers gave 4 1/3 innings after Will Warren gave the same on Saturday. For two guys pitching for rotation spots once Carlos Rodon and Gerrit Cole return, that little of length even with minimal damage isn’t going to cut it. Add in Luis Gil who will have a chip on his shoulder once he gets called up as the fifth starter, and Warren, Weathers and Gil will also be competing for one available rotation spot. (That is if everyone else stays healthy).

But for as erratic as Weathers was at times, he still only allowed one run over 4 1/3 innings. The offense provided one run on five hits, and they only scored the one run because the sacrifice fly opportunity that scored the run was created from a wild pitch.

9. There were two huge potentially big moments early in the game both involving Grisham and Caballero. The first came in the third inning when Caballero walked with one out following two successful ABS challenges. Grisham came up and didn’t give last season’s league leaders in steals a chance to go because he got a first-pitch, middle-middle fastball. But rather than hit it into the seats or in a gap, Grisham grounded out and erased Caballero on the bases. The next situation with these two came in the fifth. Caballero reached on an infield “single” with two outs in the inning and the Yankees still trailing 1-0. He could potentially steal and get driven in by Grisham or he could stay on first and see if Grisham could hit his first home run of 2026. Instead, Caballero got picked off of first with too much of a lead. Caballero on base with the lineup turning over is supposed to create offense, not destroy it.

10. Three of the six games the Yankees and Mariners played last year were one-run games and so was Monday’s. With Max Fried and Logan Gilbert going on Tuesday, it would be the least surprising result of all time if another one-run game took place. With the way the Yankees have looked offensively since Webb was removed on Opening Day, the confidence level is low that they will break out against a starter who averaged 11.9 strikeouts per nine innings in 25 starts last season in a place where they seem to struggle to score runs.

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Yankees Thoughts: San Francisco Sweep

Three games and three wins to open the season. Here are 10 thoughts on the Yankees.

1. It’s hard to believe I could feel any better about the Yankees after their season-opening series than I do right now. Three games, three wins and one run allowed to begin the season is about as good as anyone could ask for. Yes, the opponent was the destined-to-be-.500 Giants, but beating up on mediocre and bad teams is how you win the division and avoid having it settled on a tiebreaker.

2. “One thing from the past couple of years we’ve struggled at was finishing series and sweeping series,” Aaron Judge said. “Pregame, we talked about it … That’s what’s going to make the difference between winning the division or ending up tied. Every game matters.”

Well, well, well. All it took was the Yankees losing the AL East on a head-to-head tiebreaker and then getting humiliated in the ALDS because of that tiebreaker for them to realize every game matters. I have always believed a game on March 28 is as important as September 28 and have always wanted the Yankees to operate with the same mindset and urgency and it seems like they may finally be doing that.

4. Ben Rice gave the Yankees a 2-0 lead in the third with a booming double to right field. The Giants got one run (their first of the season) back in the bottom of the third to make it 2-1, but Judge hit his second home run in as many games to increase the lead to 3-1 in the fifth and that’s how it would stay as the Yankees swept the Giants, outscoring them 13-1 in the series. It’s amazing the Dodgers get to play 52 games against the Giants, Rockies, Padres and Diamondbacks.

5. Max Fried, Cam Schlittler and Will Warren threw 16 innings of one-run ball in the series and the bullpen put up zeros in the other 11 innings. That will work. Please keep doing that.

“Our starting rotation came out there and attacked the zone,” Judge said, “and really just dictated the ballgames.”

6. The Giants had 12 baserunners to the Yankees’ nine, but four inning-ending double plays kept the Giants off the board except for their lone run.

“You can’t get enough of those,” Rice said. “I’m just happy to be on the end of each one of those and finish it off.”

7. What a day behind the plate for Chad Whitson who had seven ABS calls overturned against him. Yes, the ones that barely graze the zone are hard to fault an umpire for, but some of his calls were really bad, and the ones that went in the Yankees’ favor changed the game.

8. Warren was OK for 4 1/3 innings. He put seven runners on, but kept the damage to a minimum, allowing just one run. It was a respectable outing for his first of the year.

“My command was a little wonky today,” Warren said. “They did a good job fouling stuff off and making me work.”

9. Brent Headrick, Jake Bird, Tim Hill and David Bednar combined to throw 4 2/3 scoreless innings, and the bullpen has been unbelievable so far. The bullpen was easily the biggest question mark going into this season since we knew the rotation would be great (if healthy) and we knew what to expect from the same offense, but the bullpen is full of mysteries. (Again, the Giants aren’t very good, so everything needs to be taken with boxes worth of salt.)

10. “I love that we played well,” Aaron Boone said, “but it’s March.”

Yes, it is. But to me these games are just a continuation of last season because it’s the same roster. So while it may be March on the calendar, everything happening is an extension of last season, and so far the first games of 2026 are much better than the last games of 2025, even if the opponent was the Giants for the first three games.

10. The next opponent won’t be as easy: the Mariners. (The Yankees went 5-1 against the Mariners in 2025). Many have the Mariners finally getting to the franchise’s first World Series in 2026. I don’t see it, but what I do see is a very strong rotation that is likely second in the AL to the Yankees this year. Ryan Weathers will get the ball for his Yankees debut in the series opener against Luis Castillo, who has always been a problem for the Yankees. The Yankees and Mariners always play weird, tight, low-scoring games, especially in Seattle, and I’m expecting the same over the next three days.

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Yankees Thoughts: Cam Schlittler Leads Second Straight Shutout

The Yankees are 2-0 and haven’t allowed a run in 18 innings to start the season. Here are 10 thoughts on the Yankees.

1. The last time we saw Cam Schlittler in a real, meaningful game he was proving to be the only Yankees starter capable of success against the Blue Jays in the ALDS (6.1 IP, 2 ER). That Game 4 start came after he saved the Yankees’ season with his historical start against the Red Sox (8 IP, 0 ER, 12 K) in win-or-go-home, Game 3 in the Wild Card Series. On Friday in San Francisco, he picked up right where he left off in October, dominating the Giants with 5 1/3 scoreless, one-hit innings, needing only 63 pitches to get 16 outs.

“I was trying to be as efficient as possible, seeing how far I could get,” Schlittler said. “[The pitch count] was out of my control … but I’ll just keep building from this week to next week.”

2. The Yankees were supposedly keeping Schlittler to a 70-pitch limit in his first start of the season after his setback in spring training. He had no problem giving them decent length with that number, hitting 100.1 mph in the game and blowing fastballs by Giants hitters.

3. “He located all three fastballs, threw a bunch of curveballs and just pounded the zone,” Cody Bellinger said. “He’s been really fun to watch.”

“Really fun” is an understatement. Schlittler has been exceptional in 17 career starts (including the postseason.) What if he continues to be this good? The Yankees already have two proven No. 1s in Fried and Gerrit Cole, and while I don’t like Carlos Rodon, he would be a No. 1 for a lot of teams. It’s possible Schlittler is another No. 1, and there has been nothing to suggest he isn’t so far. Everyone please pray daily for the health of the rotation because there isn’t another like it in the league.

4. The relief combination of Fernando Cruz, Tim Hill, Camilo Doval and David Bednar added 3 2/3 hitless innings and the Yankees shut out the Giants for a second straight game with a 3-0 win.

“The pen was outstanding,” Aaron Boone said. “Each guy, I thought, did a really nice job. It was a really good win.”

5. Doval has looked very good in the first two games, both at his former park. He pitched a perfect ninth on Wednesday and then struck out the side in a perfect eighth on Friday. Doval never looked good as a Yankee until the end of the season and because of his early struggles with them after the trade I never had any trust or confidence in him. But for at least these first two games he has looked like the once-dominant Giants closer and the pitcher the Yankees thought they were getting when they traded for him.

6. Through five innings, Robbie Ray was as good as Schlittler, which wasn’t a surprise since he has had good success in his career against the Yankees. Through five innings, the Yankees had three singles and no runs. Paul Goldschmidt opened the sixth with a double down the right-field line and Aaron Judge followed with a 405-foot, two-run home to left field to the give the Yankees a 2-0 lead. After Cody Bellinger grounded out, Jose Butto relieved Ray and promptly gave up a 414-foot home run to Giancarlo Stanton to make it 3-0, and that’s how it would stay. (Something I forgot to mention in the Thoughts following Opening Day was how surprising it was to see Stanton score from second on a ball hit to left field in that game. It was shocking.)

7. Goldschmidt had the double, Judge a two-run home run, Bellinger a single and walk, Stanton a solo home run, Jazz Chisholm a single and Jose Caballero a pair of singles. Amed Rosario didn’t reach base in his season debut and neither did Randal Grichuk in his Yankees debut. The Yankees went 1-for-7 with runners in scoring position and left eight on.

8. Thankfully, what has gone on with the Giants through two games hasn’t gone on with the Yankees. The Giants have no runs and four hits across 18 innings in the series. It’s one thing to get shut out and be lifeless at the plate in back-to-back games in the middle of the season, but to start the season? I may need to check out some Giants blogs to see how the first two games are being handled by that fan base. I know how it would be handled by me and other Yankees fans if it were going on here.

9. It feels great to be 2-0 to start the season, especially with the two starts the Yankees got from their rotation and the two very different types of wins in these games. It doesn’t matter that it’s against the Giants because the the AL East as a whole is 5-1 and every win matters like always. Look no further than last season when the Yankees pissed away so many games, lost the record tiebreaker to the Blue Jays and then had to go on the road to start the ALDS and their season ended. A game on March 25 or March 27 is just as important as a game on September 25 or September 27 and last season was the most useful example of that.

10. On Saturday, it will be Will Warren against Tyler Mahle. Mahle has only started one game in his career against the Yankees and that came in 2023, so it’s irrelevant to this lineup. One interesting piece of lineup information is that Goldschmidt has a double, three home runs and a .379/.441/.793 slash line against Mahle in 34 career plate appearances. Would the Yankees let Goldschmidt start against a righty? I would with those kind of numbers as he has faced Mahle 18 times more than any other Yankee and hits like he’s facing a position player against him. If Goldschmidt doesn’t start against Mahle, it will tell us that he won’t start against any righties this season. Warren started against the Giants last April and was pretty good: 5 IP, 2 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 2 BB, 6 K, 1 HR. Only five Giants (Rafael Devers, Willy Adames, Jung Hoo Lee, Matt Chapman and Heliot Ramos) have faced Warren before and they are a combined 1-for-9 with two walks against him, and they have never seen the supposedly new-and-improved Warren, who now pitches from the other side of the mound.

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Yankees Thoughts: Opening Day Dream Win

The Yankees opened the season with an impressive 7-0 win over the Giants. Here are 10 thoughts on the Yankees.

1. Opening Day feels like a postseason game. The hype, the anticipation, a sold-out crowd, the stadium bunting and two No. 1 starters going all create that feeling. And after Trent Grisham and Aaron Judge struck out to open the game and Max Fried struggled to throw strikes in the first inning, it certainly felt like a Yankees postseason game. Thankfully, that feeling didn’t last long.

The game changed in the bottom of the first after Fried allowed a four-pitch, leadoff walk to Luis Arraez (who would rather do anything than walk) and soon faced a first-and-third, one-out jam after Grisham misread a shallow fly ball. Fried bounced back to strike out the right-handed Willy Adames and got Jung Hoo Lee to ground out to end the inning and that was the game.

2. That was the game because for at least one night the ‘Run It Back’ offense lit up Logan Webb, the 2025 National League innings and strikeout leader. In the second inning, Giancarlo Stanton lined a one-out single and Jazz Chisholm got drilled by a pitch and then Jose Caballero drove in the season’s first run with a single to left. The speedy Caballero took second on the throw into the infield and then came around to score when Ryan McMahon followed with a two-run single up the middle to make it 3-0.

“I think guys were just going up there doing what the game asked them to do and take their knocks,” McMahon said. “We put a bunch of balls in play, found a couple of holes and ended up a good number.”

3. Austin Wells then also singled before Grisham drove in two more with a triple to right-center. The Yankees had a 5-0 lead and that would be more than enough for Fried. After being unable to complete five innings in his first start and Yankees debut last March despite being staked to a 14-4 lead, Fried made this lead stand up.

4. Fried didn’t have his best stuff and for most of the first inning he didn’t have any stuff and still somehow pitched pitch 6 1/3 innings of three-hit scoreless baseball.

“That’s what an ace looks like when he’s grinding,” Boone said. “He set the tone for us.”

5. Fried looked like the pitcher who led the league in wins last year and the pitcher the Yankees went 22-10 with on the mound. The pitcher who didn’t lose a start until May 30 last season.

“It wasn’t the sharpest, but at the end of the day, we won the game,” Fried said. “I got deep into the game. You take it and you move on.”

“You take it and you move on” makes Fried sound like he lost the game. Yes, I will gladly “take” 6 1/3 scoreless innings and “move on.”

6. Webb struggled against the Yankees on Opening Day in 2023 at Yankee Stadium and again last April at the Stadium and then again in this one. For as filthy as Webb looked in the first inning, it was shocking to see the Yankees have such resounding success against him in the second inning, especially so quickly. Those five runs came in a flash as the Yankees’ game plan was clearly to attack Webb early in the count and worked as well as it possibly could against a pitcher of Webb’s caliber.

7. The Yankees tacked on two more runs against Webb in the fifth when they opened the inning with three straight singles and then capitalized on an Adames throwing error to make it 7-0. The Yankees managed to score seven runs in a game against one of the very best pitchers in the game with only one extra-base hit (the Grisham triple) and with Aaron Judge providing nothing as the reigning MVP went 0-for-5 with four strikeouts and a groundout. It’s good to know the Yankees can win when Judge does absolutely nothing.

“On a night when we didn’t hit the ball out of the ballpark, we had a lot of good, pressurized at-bats,” Boone said. “We can beat you in a lot of different ways.”

8. The offense and Fried completely removed Boone from the game. By the time Boone had make in-game decisions, the Yankees had a seven-run lead and were eight outs away from a win. The old adage is “good pitching beats good hitting” and the adage around here is “getting good pitching and good hitting will always beat Boone.” I will take as many of these smooth, easy wins as possible.

“You want to get that first win, first hits,” Boone said. “You want to get into that normal rhythm of the season, which takes a little bit of time. Obviously, it was a great way to start things.”

9. There’s nothing worse than the day off after Opening Day. You wait so long for baseball to return (especially after this winter weather) and then it does and it’s immediately gone again. But there’s nothing worse than losing on Opening Day and then having to sit around and mull that loss for a couple of days. When the Yankees win on Opening Day it makes the one-day break that much easier to take and the Yankees have done a lot of winning on Opening Day in recent years (8-1 in the Boone era).

“You want to get that first win, first hits,” Boone said. “You want to get into that normal rhythm of the season, which takes a little bit of time. Obviously, it was a great way to start things.”

10. It will be Cam Schlittler against Robbie Ray when the two teams resume their seasons on Friday afternoon. The Giants have never seen Schlittler, so advantage Yankees there, though the regular Yankees outside of Judge have abysmal numbers against Ray, so advantage Giants there. Expect Boone to utilize his three right-handed bench bats in the second game of the season, but before then, take the next day to enjoy the result of the first game of the season.

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Opening Day Eve Opinions

Yankees baseball finally returns on Wednesday in San Francisco

Yankees baseball is back. Real, meaningful baseball. For the first time since lying down to a fatigued Blue Jays bullpen for nine innings to save their season 168 days ago, the Yankees will play their first game of 2026 on Wednesday.

I’m cautiously optimistic about the 2026 Yankees. It’s hard to be anything more than that when you return the same roster that was humiliated in the ALDS and the same manager who has overseen enormous failures and disappointments.

With the Yankees opening the season on Wednesday night in San Francisco, let’s get ready for the season with questions and comments from readers.

Is Grichuk and his right-handed bat a lock to be the fourth outfielder over Dominguez? – Rich

Rich asked this question last week before the roster had been determined. But as we all know now, Randal Grichuk is a Yankee and Dominguez is a RailRider.

I’m fine with Grichuk being a Yankee because it means he can’t play against the Yankees. Grichuk has an .825 OPS against the Yankees in his career. It’s why he has been a staple on my All-Animosity Team in recent years. Even last year when he had a down year and was playing for the Diamondbacks in the NL West, he still managed to win a game against the Yankees with a big, late-game double at Yankee Stadium in the first week of April. Grichuk owes Yankees fans a lot of big hits for all of the big hits he recorded against them in his career.

The Dominguez decision is depressing. I didn’t want Trent Grisham back and the Yankees either offered him the qualifying offer because they thought he wouldn’t accept it or because they were that worried Cody Bellinger would leave as a free agent. Grisham accepted it and Bellinger re-signed and Dominguez is the odd man out.

There’s a better chance Hal Steinbrenner goes against the idea of a salary cap when the current CBA expires than there is that Grisham hits 34 home runs again this season. Grisham had never hit more than 17 home runs in a season before last season and now the Yankees are clogging up a developmental lane for Dominguez (or Spencer Jones) with a player with a .720 career OPS. The Yankees have screwed up the development of their former top prospect in Dominguez as he is the latest Yankees prospect to be too good to trade, but not good enough to play for them.

When the Yankees want to give a top prospect a real chance they will stop at nothing to do so like they have with Anthony Volpe. If Volpe had Dominguez’s slash line last year of .257/.331/.388 there would already be a spot roped off for Volpe’s number 11 in Monument Park. I fully expect the Yankees to trade Dominguez and for him to realize his potential elsewhere.

How long will the leash be on Trent Grisham? – Mark

Look at how the Yankees have treated other high-priced veterans deserving of losing playing time to know how long Grisham’s leash will be. Grisham is making a lot of money in 2026 and will be given an unbelievably long leash. No matter how bad things get, Cashman and Boone will tell us he’s close and that the player who hit 34 home runs last season is in there, even if Grisham’s next-best full season is half of that total. Grisham could have a .600 OPS come the first week of May and he will still be leading off against righties. It will take a lot for him to become what he should be in a fourth outfielder.

I noticed in the international tournament that just went on that and some of the bigger games and crucial situations that Judge didn’t rise to the occasion? Am I being over critical? – Paul

You’re only being overly critical in that the World Baseball Classic is a meaningless tournament in which players play for countries they have the loosest of ties to and pitchers like Ryan Yarbrough are on Team USA. If the tournament mattered or meant something, Team USA would field an unbeatable team.

As for Judge, Americans who aren’t Yankees fans got to see what Judge does in the biggest of games, even if this time in came in March instead of October. I was at the Stadium in October when he hit the mammoth, three-run, game-tying home run in Game 3 of the ALDS, and while it was a great moment, it happened in Game 3 of the ALDS — 10 wins away from a championship. It was Judge’s at-bat in Game 1 of the ALDS that completely changed the series and his Game 3 home run ended up prolonging the season by a day before the offense was embarrassed by a fatigued Blue Jays bullpen game. Judge is a .294/.413/.615 hitter in the regular season and a .236/.346/.476 hitter in the postseason. The best postseason players have an equal or better OPS in the playoffs compared to the regular season and Judge’s postseason OPS is 200 points under his regular-season OPS.

It’s right in front of us. We turned the page on 2025. Hopefully we win the East and trounce the Dodgers in the World Series. – Dave

Sadly, we didn’t turn the page on 2025. There is nothing different about the end of the 2025 season and the start of the 2026 season. A few months without baseball didn’t make this roster better at baseball. The start of 2026 is just a continuation of the end of 2025. The Yankees made that so when they decided to bring back the same not-good-enough roster and then had the balls to tell everyone it’s not the same roster. Though that part shouldn’t come as a surprise since the Yankees have been spewing “championship-caliber” bullshit for years, believe internally that they won the 2017 World Series, continue to operate with the same manager and general manager and have an owner who said this winter that the franchise with the highest valuation in the sport (and possibly all sports if put up for sale) doesn’t turn a profit.

When do we replace 27 time world champion on the backstop with insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results? – WasWatching

If this change was going to happen, doing it after the 2021 season would have made the most sense.

Is there enough depth with both pitching and hitting given the age of the roster and injury history? – Michael

The depth of the team is Judge. If Judge goes down, the season goes down. It seems impossible that a baseball team and a $325 million roster could be so reliant on one single player, but the Yankees are. Not only is the roster built in a way that the entire season hinges on Judge’s health, but it also hinges on him playing at an MVP level. Judge can’t just be a superstar. He has to be an all-time great for the Yankees to get to where they want to go.

The Yankees do have pitching depth, but no team seems to have pitching depth for long. Carlos Rodon and then Gerrit Cole are expected back and while that sounds awesome, they both need to stay healthy and have no setbacks and then the starters that are available as of now need to stay healthy as well. The good news is Marcus Stroman and Carlos Carrasco aren’t making up 40 percent of the Opening Day rotation.

Luis Gil is currently the fifth starter and because the Yankees won’t need a fifth starter until mid-April, he won’t start the season in the majors. That’s problematic because Gil won the 2024 Rookie of the Year and started the only game the Yankees won in the 2024 World Series and then they made him untouchable last season. He followed up being untouchable by missing nearly the entire regular season and then pooped his pants on the mound at Rogers Centre in the ALDS. Now he’s behind Will Warren and Ryan Weathers in the starting pitching pecking order.

Same team, a year older, less wins. Predict 86 wins. – Tyler

In full season since 1995 the Yankees have failed to win at least 86 games only four times. Those four times are … 

2013 when Lyle Overbay (142 games), Vernon Wells (130), Chris Stewart (109), Eduardo Nunez (90), Jayson Nix (87) and Travis Hafter (82) played in the most games after Robinson Cano, 39-year-old Ichiro Suzuki and Brett Gardner …

2014 when Brian Cashman built an infield of 40-year-old Derek Jeter, .711 OPS Mark Teixeira, 36-year-old Brian Roberts and Yangervis Solarte …

2016 when not a single one of the nine players with the most games played at their position finished the season as a league-average hitter and the team sold at the deadline …

and 2023, when the Yankees posted their lowest full-season win total in 31 years and then brought back the manager who led the team to that three-decade-low win total.

(Joe Girardi deserves to be in the Hall of Fame for posting winning seasons with the 2013, 2014 and 2016 rosters).

A lot would have to go wrong for the Yankees to not win more than 86 games in 2026. Last season, they mailed in one-third of the season (like they always do under Boone) and won 94 games. I still think this team wins in the mid-90s. But if they don’t a lot of people should lose their jobs (many of whom should have lost them years ago).

Are we ready to put ourselves through this again? – Greg

Yes, we are. Beginning on Wednesday, there will be real Yankees baseball to write and talk about for at least the next six months. But do we know how this season likely ends because we have seen this same season many times now? Highly likely.

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