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Tag: Victor Martinez

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The Shane Greene Trade Has Been an Atrocity

The Yankees picked up a much-needed sweep of the Rays over the weekend to get back to .500 and showed some consistency for the first time this season. Thanks to A-Rod’s impressive start to the

Shane Greene

The Yankees picked up a much-needed sweep of the Rays over the weekend to get back to .500 and showed some consistency for the first time this season. Thanks to A-Rod’s impressive start to the season and the zeroes put up by the back end of the bullpen, the Yankees are 6-6, but have played bad enough to be much worse. Things aren’t going to get any easier on this 10-game road trip with the next stop being Detroit where the Tigers have gotten off to the best start in the league.

With the Yankees and Tigers meeting for the first time this season, I did an email exchange with Rob Rogacki of Bless You Boys to talk about David Price’s impending free agency and future, the three-team trade with the Yankees that brought Shane Greene to Detroit and the end of the Austin Jackson era with last season’s trade to the Mariners.

Keefe: David Price has allowed one earned run in 22 1/3 innings over three starts. Incredibly, he has only won one of those three starts because of a lack of run support, but at age 29 (he’ll be 30 in August), Price is off to his best start in any season. Coincidentally, he is a free agent at the end of the season.

I have long wanted Price on the Yankees and it seems like he is following the CC Sabathia 2008 blueprint of having a career year in a contract year and with the money Max Scherzer (who is one year older than Price) got from the Nationals (seven years, $210 million) this offseason, Price is easily going to match that number and likely exceed it. Hopefully, it’s the Yankees giving him that offer.

What do you think happens with Price after 2015? What offer do you want the Tigers to make him?

Rogacki: There were whispers about the Tigers and Price negotiating a long-term extension during spring training, but those voices have all but died, and the two sides are reportedly nowhere close to an agreement. The Tigers haven’t issued a press release like they did with Max Scherzer last season, which leads me to believe that there is hope that he could end up back in Detroit in 2016. Price seems to be much more comfortable with the Tigers this year, and has made fast friends with rotation stalwart Justin Verlander. If Price does not re-sign with the Tigers, it will probably be because of money, not a desire to leave the organization.

I cringe at the thought of giving a 30-year-old starter the kind of contract that Scherzer got, but I think that this is the bare minimum it will take to retain Price. The lefthander checks off all the boxes you want in an ace, and his game should age as well as one could expect out of a pitcher in today’s era. I think a lot of Tigers fans were more amicable to the idea of extending Price over Scherzer, and I have a hard time imagining that the Tigers won’t put together a serious offer this offseason.

Keefe: Miguel Cabrera is off to another MVP-candidate start to the season, which is to be expected from the best hitter in the world. It’s been just over a year since he signed the 10-year, $292 million deal with the Tigers and while it seemed like too long and too much money for a player at his age with his build with his future projection, I loved the deal.

Sure, people are going to complain about it because people complain about every deal in every sport, so it didn’t surprise me that people had an issue with overpaying the back-to-back AL MVP for his 30s. Like I always say with the Yankees, “It’s not my money,” and it can keep a player like Cabrera on your roster for the rest of his prime, then worry about his later years when they come.

What were your thoughts on the Cabrera deal?

Rogacki: While the Tigers have one of the higher payrolls in the game, their budget is still a step or two below the eye-popping numbers that the Yankees and Dodgers are paying out, and $30 million per year for an aging hitter — even one as good as Cabrera — is going to put a strain on their budget going forward. They would have more roster and financial flexibility without Cabrera, especially in the later parts of the decade.

That said, I love that the Tigers went out of their way to retain Cabrera, who is well on his way to Cooperstown (and the requisite statue at Comerica Park that comes along with it). Cabrera is one of the best hitters in MLB history and a joy to watch everyday, and his playful personality makes him all the more entertaining for Tigers fans and opponents alike. Hall of Fame players generally stay very productive well into their 30s, and Cabrera has definitely fit into that mold so far throughout his career.

Keefe: I miss Shane Greene. A 2009 15th-round draft pick, he finally reached the majors last year and struck out 81 in 78 2/3 innings. He looked like he might be a future staple of the rotation and maybe one of the first reliable homegrown starters the Yankees have produced with Brian Cashman as general manager. Instead, he was traded to the Tigers in a three-team deal with the Diamondbacks that brought back Didi Gregorius in return.

Gregorius has been awful through his first 12 games as a Yankee. He is hitting .189/.225/.189 without an extra-base hit, several baserunning blunders and for all we heard about his exceptional Gold Glove-caliber fielding, he hasn’t made a play yet that 40-year-old Derek Jeter couldn’t make.

Is there any chance we can redo that trade? What are your thoughts about Greene and his 3-0 start?

Rogacki: I have been a fan of the trade that brought Greene to Detroit from the start. I was very impressed with his two performances against the Tigers last season, and after going back to watch a few more of his outings during the offseason, my optimism had not waned one bit. Greene pounded the lower half of the strike zone and showed flashes of a developing changeup, one that has served him very well throughout his first three starts in 2015. Greene has an underrated cutter and changeup, and has also started elevating his four-seam fastball in two-strike counts.

This trade isn’t going to look this lopsided for long. Greene is due to regress from his microscopic ERA, and Gregorius’ batted ball profile indicates that he has been somewhat unlucky early on in 2015. His above average defense will start to shine through at some point. I think the Tigers are clear winners in this trade simply because they gave up the least to get what looks to be a mid-rotation starter in Greene, but I think the move was a necessary one for the Yankees (though not the splashy one their fanbase would have liked).

Keefe: Last year at the trade deadline, the Tigers traded Austin Jackson to the Mariners in the three-team deal that landed them David Price. Jackson, another former Yankee who was traded to the Tigers for Curtis Granderson before the 2010 season, never really lived up to the expectations that were placed on him, struck out a lot and struggled to get on base the last few years.

I remember being upset that he wouldn’t reach the majors with the Yankees after he was traded and wondered why they would want to give away a 21-year-old future center fielder for an aging one. But looking back on it, I would have to say both teams came out even on that aspect of the trade and we were able to get rid of Phil Coke and you were able to get Max Scherzer, so it was a win-win all around.

What were your thoughts when the Tigers traded Jackson to the Mariners?

Rogacki: While Jackson struggled for long stretches with the Tigers, his first few seasons made Tigers fans all but forget about Granderson. Jackson was an elite defender in center field during his first four years in Detroit, ranking among the very best centerfielders in baseball in nearly every advanced defensive metric in the book. His penchant for striking out was frustrating at times, but he was an above average leadoff hitter whose value far outweighed his cost to the organization. Jackson was a fan favorite, and the standing ovation he got when he was removed from a game after being traded was one of the most surreal baseball moments I have ever seen.

Personally, I was ecstatic for the deal. It’s not every day that you land an elite talent like Price, and while the cost was steep (Jackson and cost-controlled Drew Smyly were both shipped out), the chance to see Price pitch in the Olde English D was exciting. I have continued to follow both former Tigers with their new teams, and am surprised at how much Jackson has struggled with the Mariners. I think the trade will be unfairly judged on whether the Tigers win a World Series this year, but I think the move was the right one to make for this team.

Keefe: The Tigers are off to a hot 10-2 start in a year in which I thought they would have a down year. They lost Max Scherzer to free agency, Justin Verlander has yet to pitch and I didn’t think their offense was as deep as it had been in years past. But the Tigers have kept on rolling despite the roster turnover and despite the question marks in the bullpen. It seems as though Dave Dombrowski has done it again in what was supposed a deep and hard-to-win AL Central.

What were your expectations for the team entering the season and have they changed after this 10-2 start?

Rogacki: Expectations for this team have definitely skyrocketed after such a strong start to the season. The last two times the Tigers started a season off this fast, they won the World Series, a fact that is not lost on Tigers fans. The starting pitching has been the biggest surprise, both for positive and negative reasons. I already touched on Greene’s hot start, but Alfredo Simon is coming off the best start of his career (and will start tonight’s opening game). Anibal Sanchez, on the other hand, has already allowed more home runs this season than he did in all of 2014. The Tigers definitely need an effective Verlander if they are going to reach the playoffs, but they have been able to withstand his absence so far.

There have been some surprising contributions from the offense as well, but overall I thought that this unit had the potential to be one of the very best in baseball. Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez might be the best one-two punch in baseball, and J.D. Martinez was coming off a red-hot spring training. Yoenis Cespedes was hitting like his usual self prior to last season’s trade to Boston, and I was very bullish on Nick Castellanos taking a step forward in season two. All of those things have happened so far, and more. Jose Iglesias is translating one of the best contact rates in baseball into a not-gonna-stay-that-way .436 batting average, and Anthony Gose and Rajai Davis have become an effective platoon at the top of the order. This lineup is deeper than many people expected, and will make life difficult for many a pitcher in 2015.

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A Similar Situation for Yankees-Tigers Series

The Yankees’ three-game series in Detroit will likely serve as the turning point of their season one way or another after they spent the last week climbing out of their hole.

Stephen Drew

A five-game winning streak has the Yankees miraculously alive in the AL East and on the doorstep for the second wild card. This week’s three-game series in Detroit could put the Yankees in prime position to clinch a playoff berth over the the final 30 games of the year or it could put the Yankees back in the same hole they just spent the past week climbing out of.

With the Yankees and Tigers meeting for the first time in Detroit and the final time this season, I did an email exchange with Rob Rogacki of Bless You Boys to talk about what has happened to the Tigers since the trade deadline, the breakout season from Rick Porcello and the futures of Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer.

Keefe: I saw on Sunday that you tweeted, “Tomorrow, we are all Yankees fans,” with the Yankees playing a makeup game in Kansas City. The Yankees got the job done in Kansas City with an 8-1 win on Monday night and with a Mariners’ loss in Texas, the Yankees now trail the second wild-card spot by just 2.5 games. I know I shouldn’t be excited about the Yankees being in play for the second wild card, but that’s where injuries and an underachieving offense have left me. But your jump on the Yankees bandwagon only lasted a few hours as they now head to Detroit for a three-game series with your Tigers in a series that both teams desperately need to win.

On the day of the trade deadline, everyone sort of penciled in the Tigers and A’s for the ALCS because of their moves to strengthen the already strongest rotations in the league. But over the last four weeks, the Tigers and A’s have played themselves out of running away with their respective divisions and the Tigers aren’t even holding on to a playoff spot right now.

When the Yankees played the Tigers at the beginning of August, they looked like a different offensively and it was almost as if Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez didn’t beat you then no one would. Did the Tigers make one too many moves that actually made them worse since July 31?

Rogacki: I think that the pair of moves the Tigers made at the deadline definitely improved the team, especially given how well David Price has pitched so far. Price has a 2.35 ERA and 2.90 FIP in four starts in a Tigers uniform, but is just 1-1 thanks to a lack of run support. Price tossed a one-hitter against his former club in his last start, but lost 1-0 on an unearned run.

Losing Austin Jackson at the deadline definitely hurt the offense — especially given how he had been hitting in the second half — but the team’s struggles largely fall on the big bats in the lineup. Ian Kinsler had a .515 OPS in the second half prior to the team’s last road trip and scored just eight runs in a month-long span. Miguel Cabrera’s .820 OPS is excellent for most mortals, but far below what the Tigers expect of their $292 million man. Victor Martinez took a little while to recover from an oblique strain that hobbled him in July, but has turned things around with a .992 OPS in August.

The hitters aren’t the only problem, though. Justin Verlander and Anibal Sanchez have both missed starts this month, leading the Tigers to use guys like Robbie Ray and Buck Farmer in the rotation, with left-hander Kyle Lobstein tentatively scheduled to start on Thursday. The team’s lack of starting pitching depth is finally starting to be exposed, but with Verlander already back and Sanchez not far behind, the team looks poised to climb back into the playoff picture.

Keefe: I never understood the hype and attention paid to Rick Porcello as he grew up in the majors over the last five years, but now everyone is seeing why the Tigers have always been so high on him with 14 wins, a 3.10 ERA and a league-leading three shutouts. Porcello has become the front-end starter the Tigers hoped he would when they picked him in the first round in 2007.

What has been the biggest difference in the back-end starter Porcello was in his first five seasons and what he has become in 2014?

Rogacki: Porcello’s big leap actually came in 2013, but largely went unnoticed thanks to an unimpressive 13 wins and a 4.32 ERA. He posted the highest strikeout rate and strikeout-to-walk ratio of his career, resulting in a career-best 3.53 fielding independent pitching (FIP) measure. If that isn’t enough, look at what he did in the second half. From July 1st onward, Porcello was 9-2 with a 3.57 ERA in 14 starts. He held opponents to two runs or fewer in seven of those starts and logged his first complete game in a victory over the White Sox.

This season, Porcello’s strikeout rate has returned to earth, but his walk rate has also dropped. He is holding left-handed hitters to a .673 OPS, by far the best mark of his career. Opponents also have a .215 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) on ground balls against Porcello, well below the league average of .250. Part of this may be to weaker contact induced by Porcello locating his pitches, and part of this may be due to the Tigers’ improved infield defense. Third baseman Nick Castellanos and shortstop Eugenio Suarez have not been very impressive, but Ian Kinsler and Miguel Cabrera have statistically been two of the best defenders in baseball at their respective positions.

Keefe: In 2012, Justin Verlander was virtually as good as he was in his Cy Young an MVP season in 2011. In 2013, his ERA jumped to the mid-3s and his WHIP climbed and while he still had a good year, it wasn’t what we had become used to after his previous two seasons. Now in 2014, at age 31, in the second year of a seven-year, $180 million deal, Verlander has had a lot season.

Verlander has only had one full sub-.500 season in his career (when he led the league in losses with 17 on a bad 2008 Tigers team) and that same year was the only year his ERA was above 3.66 (it was 4.84), but this year he’s on his way to having his second-worst season of his career and his worst in six years.

What has happened to Justin Verlander? Do you just chalk this up as a lost season for him or are you worried about his future and his contract?

Rogacki: There’s always some level of worry when a pitcher gets a contract as long and expensive as the one that the Tigers gave Verlander prior to the 2013 season, but I’m not very concerned about his results in 2014. Verlander had core muscle repair surgery in early January — similar to the surgery Miguel Cabrera had last October —  which seems to have sapped his stamina. He has a 3.67 ERA in innings 1-3 this season, but that figure jumps to 5.33 in innings 4-6 and 8.04 in the seventh inning or later.

Verlander hinted earlier this year that he still doesn’t feel 100 percent after the surgery, something that Cabrera reiterated around the All-Star break. It will be interesting to see how both stars come back in 2015, provided neither runs into any more setbacks along the way.

Keefe: Max Scherzer turned down a reported six-year, $144 million from the Tigers after his Cy Young-winning season, putting his right arm and future financial status on the line every time he throws a baseball. But this season, at 29, Scherzer has followed up his 2013 21-win season with another impressive year and with starting pitching as coveted as it’s ever been, he is likely to blow away the $144 million the Tigers offered him.

If I were Scherzer, I would have taken the guaranteed $144 million knowing that on any pitch at any time, you might never get a chance to make that kind of money again. But as long as he is able to stay healthy for another month (and possibly October if the Tigers get there), his gamble will have paid off.

Is there any chance Scherzer is a Tiger in 2015 and what do you think he will end up getting?

Rogacki: I don’t ever want to doubt what Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski is capable of, but the trade for David Price seems to have all but sealed Scherzer’s fate. The Tigers seem reluctant to offer him a contract longer than six years, while Scherzer appears to be after the biggest payday possible (a safe assumption when you’re talking about a Scott Boras client). If he hits the free agent market, I would not be surprised to see Scherzer become baseball’s second $200 million pitcher, especially considering that he has pitched at an ace level since mid-May of 2012. I would love to see him back with the Tigers next season — he’s as outgoing and goofy as baseball players get — but not at the kind of money he appears to be looking for.

Keefe: As this series starts, the Yankees are 6 games back of the Orioles and 2.5 games back of the second wild card. The Tigers are 1 ½ games back of the Royals and ½ game back of the second wild card. I think I’m safe in assuming that you didn’t expect the Tigers to be going down to the wire for a playoff spot when the season started or after they landed David Price and I know that on July 31 you didn’t think they might be looking at a scenario where they have to play a one-game playoff or one in which they don’t reach the postseason at all.

What are your feelings on the state of the Tigers on Aug. 26 and after their final 33 games, where will they be?

Rogacki: The Tigers definitely aren’t where any of us expected them to be at this point in the season, especially given how good they have looked at stretches this year. That said, I think that the Royals’ recent hot streak will end in the next week or two, and the Tigers will win their fourth consecutive AL Central crown. With 27 of their final 33 games against AL Central opponents — and the other six games at Comerica Park — they have plenty of time to jump ahead of the Royals and get back into the postseason.

But that doesn’t mean we don’t appreciate the help. Nicely done last night, Yanks.

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