Victor Cruz – Keefe To The City

Oct 1, 2015

NFL Week 4 Picks

After surviving Week 2, Week 3 was one for the history books, but now the bar has been set to try to continue to produce equally successful weeks. It’s not an easy job, but someone has to do it.

The good part about your team playing on Thursday Night Football is that you only have to wait four days until the team’s next game. The bad part about your team playing on Thursday Night Football is that you then have to wait 10 days until they play again. But that’s not necessarily bad for the Giants since their early-season Thursday game serves as nearly a bye week, giving them time to rest and prepare for the Bills.

The Giants are in a perfect position to go on a run and take control of the NFC East with Tony Romo and Dez Bryant out for a couple months, the Eagles having no identity and a bad offense with a greatly underachieving DeMarco Murray and the Redskins being the Redskins. After the Week 1 meltdown in Dallas, I figured that loss would eventually mean the Giants would have to battle for a wild-card berth, but the NFC East once again is proving to be a gongshow for another season, and that’s exactly what the Giants need.

Last week was a memorable one. A 13-3 week with the picks that included a Giants win over the Redskins is about as good as it gets when it comes to the always unpredictable NFL. After surviving Week 2, Week 3 was one for the history books, but now the bar has been set to try to continue to produce equally successful weeks. It’s not an easy job, but someone has to do it.

(Home team in caps)

PITTSBURGH +3 over Baltimore
Michael Vick doesn’t really want to play football anymore. He wants to collect a paycheck to practice during the week and then watch Steelers games from the sidelines on Sundays (and sometimes Mondays and a Thursday). It was the same story when he was with the Jets and when he finally had to go into a game, he looked like someone who hadn’t prepared to play an actual snap for the season. But even for as bad as Vick has looked and has been, the Ravens are worse. They are 0-3 for the first time under John Harbaugh, their defense has been embarrassed and their offense has been non-existent. Aside from all of that, you always take the points in Steelers-Ravens games. It’s just the smart thing to do.

Last season, the Ravens won 26-6 and the Steelers won 43-23. In 2013, the Steelers won 19-16 and the Ravens won 22-20. In 2012, the Ravens won 13-10 and the Steelers won 23-20. In 2011, the Ravens won 35-7 and 23-20. In 2010, the Ravens won 17-14 and the Steelers won 13-10. In 2009, the Ravens won 20-17 in overtime and the Steelers won 23-20. In 2008, the Steelers won 23-20 in overtime and 13-9.

Last season was an anomaly, but including last season, in the last 14 meetings between the two teams, 10 of the games have been decided by three points or less and eight of them have been decided by exactly three points. Even without Ben Roethlisberger, you have to take the Steelers at home getting 3.

New York Jets -2 over MIAMI
Last week, I said the following about the Jets.

Now not only are the Jets not going to start the season 1-3, they might be 4-0 heading into their bye and with the Redskins on the schedule in Week 6, they might be 5-0 heading to New England. Nearly five years after we got the 9-2 Jets against the 9-2 Patriots on Monday Night Football, we might get the 5-0 Jets against the 5-0 Patriots this season.

So how did they repay my positivity about them? By losing at home to the Eagles, which screwed up the NFC East even more and hurt the Giants, in a game that included one of the dumbest decisions I have ever seen by Brandon Marshall on an unnecessary lateral that turned into a fumble. It felt like the same old Jets and after that fumble I expected the camera to pan to the sidelines and for Rex Ryan to be standing there.

But Rex isn’t there and Todd Bowles is and it was his first bad game as Jets head coach even if he couldn’t control Marshall’s decision making or Ryan Fitzpatrick’s ineffectiveness. And even thought the Jets looked awful in a home loss, they won’t spiral out of control the way they would have if Rex were still there. That’s partly because of Bowles and partly because the Dolphins are atrocious.

So far the Dolphins barely got past the Redskins (who are 1-2) in Week 1, lost to the Jaguars (who are 1-2 and lost to the Patriots 51-17) in Week 2 and were run out of their own building by the Bills in Week 3. Here’s what I said about the Dolphins in Week 1:

Well, the Dolphins are once again an underachieving and mediocre team, and mediocre might be generous. A week after they couldn’t win a division game at home, actually scratch that … A week after they couldn’t even compete in a division game at home, they’re now going to go across the Atlantic and beat the Jets on a neutral field. OK, sure.

Jacksonville +9 over INDIANAPOLIS
The best thing to happen in Week 3 was the Jaguars getting blown out in New England, so that this line would be made too high, and it is. The Colts are a bad team that celebrated their Week 3 win over the Titans the way they would have likely celebrated their AFC Championship win over the Patriots had they won (or even made it a game). The Jaguars aren’t good, but neither are the Colts, and for the Colts to be giving 9 points to any team after back-to-back losses to open the season and barely pulling out a two-point win in Tennessee. Despite being favorites in their first three games, the Colts have yet to cover, considering they lost two of them, and I’m continuing to sell hard on the Colts.

Houston +7 over ATLANTA
I don’t really think the Falcons are good. That isn’t exactly something normal to say about an undefeated 3-0 team with two road wins already on the season, but like saying goes, “It’s not about who you play, it’s about when you play them.” So far the Falcons got the inept Eagles at home in Week 1, the Giants’ clock management problems in Week 2 and a Tony Romo- and Dez Bryant-less Cowboys team in Week 3. The Falcons deserve credit for winning all three games and for coming from behind down multiple possessions in the last two, but those aren’t exactly impressive wins and even with Julio Jones catching everything thrown within 10 feet of him, the Falcons just aren’t anything special. They might beat the Texans and improve to 4-0, but they aren’t going to do it by blowing them out because that’s not who the Falcons are.

Carolina -3.5 over TAMPA BAY
The Panthers are the most under-the-radar 3-0 team ever. I had to check to make sure they were 3-0 because that’s how little I have heard about them and their undefeated start to the season. Even though their wins are against Jacksonville, Houston and New Orleans, they’re still wins and the Panthers have the luxury of playing in the NFC South where only Atlanta will give them any sort of competition. I might shy away from picking the Panthers if they were being talked about and hyped as much as any other 3-0 team would, but as long as the Panthers continue to go unnoticed, there’s nothing to be worried about with a potential trap line.

New York Giants +5.5 over BUFFALO
The return of Victor Cruz had me dreaming of the possibilities of Odell Beckham Jr. and Cruz being unstoppable since we have never really seen the two play together. (The duo played just one game together last season before Cruz injured his knee.) But after suffering a setback with his calf in practice on Wednesday, Cruz probably won’t play again this week in Buffalo, and if he doesn’t, he will have already missed 25 percent of the season.

On the Bills’ side, Rex Ryan told Mike Francesa on Wednesday that both LeSean McCoy and Sammy Watkins are likely out for the game. That leaves the game pretty much up to the Bills’ defense, which let the Patriots put up 507 yards against them at home, so the aura of Ralph Wilson Stadium being a touch place to play just because the Colts couldn’t do anything isn’t exactly true.

Oakland -3 over CHICAGO
When was the last time the Raiders were a road favorite? LOOK IT UP. This line feels way too low after watching Jimmy Clausen and the Bears punt on all 10 of their possessions against the Seahawks last week. I’m not sure how the Bears are ever going to score with Clausen at quarterback unless Robbie Gould starts drilling 70-yard field goals. But even then, Clausen would have to move the ball to the Bears’ 47 and I’m not sure if that’s possible. After trading Jared Allen, it’s clear the Bears are about to begin a fire sale and it has been suggested that they trade Matt Forte, who is in the last year of his contract and approaching 30. If Forte wasn’t in the last year of his contract, I would advise the Bears to make him inactive for every game for the rest of the season and save his legs for next year, but since he is, they should trade him. Why should the Bears have an elite running back? It’s like a 60-win baseball team having an elite closer. Trade Forte.

WASHINGTON +3.5 over Philadelphia
Kirk Cousins says he couldn’t sleep over his non-touchdown passes to Jordan Reed on Thursday Night Football last week. That’s good because it shows Cousins’ head is in the right place, but it’s not good because he needs his sleep to win this game.

I’m rooting for the Redskins to win because they are less of a threat to the Giants in the NFC East and a Redskins win would give Philadelphia two division losses. I want the NFC East to become a two-team race between the Giants and Cowboys and without Romo and Bryant for a while, the Giants will have the opportunity to take a commanding lead. Will they take advantage of this opportunity? Of course not. But I can dream.

Kansas City +4.5 over CINCINNATI
The old me would see this line, remember that the Chiefs are 1-2 and Ryan Mallett starting over Brian Hoyer in Week 1 from being 0-3, and remember that the Bengals are 3-0 and instantly pick the Bengals. But not the new me. Not the me that has created a “Just Say No to the B’s” campaign. Those B’s are the Bengals, Bears and Browns. So I’m saying no to the Bengals and there isn’t an amount of peer pressure that could get me to change my mind.

SAN DIEGO -7.5 over Cleveland
If you just read my rule about the B’s in the last pick then you already know. However, there is one exception to that rule and that is when Johnny Manziel starts, the Browns aren’t part of it. Johnny Football is once again on the bench, so I’m saying no to the Browns and I hope they lose in a rout.

Green Bay -9.5 over SAN FRANCISCO
Carlos Hyde ran all over the Vikings in Week 1 and had the best week of any running back in the NFL in his debut as the 49ers starter. The next week he got hurt against the Steelers and when he was ready to come back in, he was held out because the score was lopsided. Last week, due to another lopsided score, he was held out for most of the game again. This week, the 49ers are playing the best team and the best offense in the NFC. There’s a good chance we’re headed for another game in which Hyde watches from the sidelines to preserve his health and legs for future games. There are going to be a lot of games like that for the 49ers this season, but the problem is that Hyde is the 49ers offense, so without him they don’t have a chance.

DENVER -7 over Minnesota
The Vikings are 2-1 thanks to two home wins, but I didn’t like what I saw from them in their season opener on the road in San Francisco against a team that has been outscored 90-25 in the last two weeks. I don’t know how I’m supposed to take the Vikings in Denver against Peyton Manning and that defense and feel confident with a 7-point spread. I’m going to have to see Teddy Bridgewater and the Vikings offense a little more away from Minnesota before I start to back the Vikings on the road. (Sorry, Britt. Don’t worry, I like sleeping on the couch.)

ARIZONA -7 over St. Louis
The Cardinals are the real deal. Two years ago, they were a 10-win team that didn’t make the playoffs. Last season, they were a true contender in the NFC until Carson Palmer got hurt and Drew Stanton got hurt and they were left starting Ryan Lindley, who threw for 82 yards, in their playoff game at Carolina. Bruce Arians and the Cardinals deserve better and so far this season they have proven that they are at the top of the NFC with the Packers and are better than their their division rival Seahawks. I’m going to enjoy taking the Cardinals for a touchdown or less for as long as Vegas wants to give away a free pick and free money.

NEW ORLEANS -5 over Dallas
It’s the possibly Drew Brees-less Saints against the Tony Romo-less Cowboys on Sunday Night Football. NBC must be thrilled about the state of these two teams for their primetime game though probably not as thrilled as Brees was when he found out Jimmy Graham was traded to Seattle.

The Superdome Saints are no more. When you lose to Jameis Winston and the Buccaneers in the Superdome, that theory goes away. Instead the Saints are now an 0-3 team with a loss this week away from having their season over with 75 percent of the schedule remaining. If there’s any truth to the idea of a desperate team coming to play and winning a game, this is it. What better way to turn your season around than on national TV in the manic Superdome with Drew Brees returning to the field.

SEATTLE -10 over Detroit
I’m not sure if Jim Caldwell’s job is in trouble with the Lions being winless since I’m not sure how Jim Caldwell was hired to be the Lions head coach to begin with. Maybe that postseason appearance last year is enough to buy Caldwell some time, but that time might be erased in the coming weeks. After the Lions lose in Seattle, they host Arizona, Chicago and Minnesota and then go to Kansas City before their Week 9 bye. That has 1-8, maybe 2-7 at best, written all over it.

Last week: 13-3-0
Season: 29-18-1

Blogs • Email Exchanges

Sep 18, 2015

Giants Already in Must-Win Mode Against Falcons

The Giants’ Week 1 disaster has them looking at a potential must-win game in Week 2. The one problem with that is Julio Jones and Roddy White are coming to East Rutherford.

The Giants’ Week 1 disaster has them looking at a potential must-win game in Week 2. Sure, it might sound crazy to have a must-win game in Week 2, but after the way the last two season’s spiraled out of control early, the Giants have to be better on Sunday. The one problem with that is Julio Jones and Roddy White are coming to East Rutherford.

With the Falcons coming to MetLife for the Giants’ home opener, Dave Choate of The Falcoholic joined me to talk about the team’s decline over the last two seasons, the firing of Mike Smith and hiring of Pat Quinn and whether or not the criticism of Matt Ryan is fair.

Keefe: Three seasons ago, the Falcons had a 17-0 lead in the NFC Championship Game over the 49ers before eventually losing 28-24. I remember the game clearly because I had a 10-to-1 parlay on the Falcons and Ravens to win the championship games that day, but I’m sure you remember it even better.

After back-to-back first-round losses, it looked like the Falcons would finally overcome their postseason problems over the last 13 years and return to the Super Bowl for the first time since 1998. It didn’t work out and the Falcons followed it up with a 4-12 season in 2013 and a 6-10 season last year.

From being the No. 1 seed in the NFC and so close to getting to the Super Bowl only to become a third-place team in the NFC South, what happened to the Falcons over the last two years since their meltdown?

Choate: It was a lot of things at once. Mike Smith was a capable, even-keeled coach who had trouble when things started to go awry. Injuries hit, the team couldn’t get a ground game going, and too many players were unmitigated disasters on defense.

With the team feeling its lack of depth due to misses in the draft and free agency, Smith making a handful of very poor decisions that turned the fanbase against him, and the Week 17 collapse against the Panthers, ownership felt it was time to make a change. We’ll hope that bears fruit.

Keefe: After being on the hot seat for several seasons, Mike Smith was finally fired by the Falcons in December following seven seasons as head coach and just one playoff win. He was Coach of the Year in his first season (2008) with the Falcons and the team had two first-place finishes and three second-place finishes, but 2013 and 2014 were too much to overcome.

Now the team has former Seahawks defensive coordinator Dan Quinn as the team’s head coach and he won in his debut in Week 1 against the Eagles.

Were you a Smith fan and were you in agreement with his firing? Was Quinn your choice to replace him?

Smith: I always liked Smith, and I felt bad he was run out of town and had his otherwise sterling reputation tarred by the 2012 NFC Championship Game and the 2013 and 2014 seasons. That said, it was tough to argue with the idea that this team needed a change, given how poorly they played and how thoroughly everyone locally had turned on the team.

Quinn was probably my second or third choice to replace Smith (I liked Todd Bowles and Rex Ryan), but he’s proven to be a terrific hire thus far. Admittedly, it’s early.

Keefe: Matt Ryan had an impressive start to his career, but like any other quarterback, who hasn’t been part of a championship team or a team that has reached the Super Bowl, the lazy rhetoric that he can’t win the big game has started to be associated with him. Even if he has been asked to lead less-than-stellar teams in recent years, the attention always comes back to the quarterback though Ryan’s stats for each of his first seven seasons are pretty much identical.

Even as the team struggled the last two seasons, Ryan still had his usual seasons, which would have been good enough to win on many other all-around teams.

Are you a Ryan fan? Is the questioning of his big-game play fair?

Choate: The questioning of his mistakes is fair. Ryan can sometimes take risks and make sloppy throws that lead to turnovers, and that’s always going to hang over his head until he stops doing it entirely. It’s still relatively rare that his mistakes cost the Falcons the game, though, and I do think he takes more criticism than is warranted given his overall level of performance

Overall, I think Ryan is a top eight quarterback in the NFL, one of the league’s most dependable performers, and that it’s very possible he’s heading for his best year ever. I’m excited to see what he’ll do in 2015.

Keefe: Last week I had to worry about Dez Bryant before dehydration and a broken foot removed him from the game. This week, I have to worry about the two-headed monster of Julio Jones and Roddy White, but luckily I don’t have to worry about the Giants playing them in the Georgia Dome.

The Giants have a two-headed monster of their own in Odell Beckham Jr. and Victor Cruz, but Cruz didn’t play last week and won’t play this week and with Beckham missing the beginning of last season and Cruz missing most of last season, the two haven’t even played two full games together.

As a Falcons fan, you have had to deal with both Jones and White missing time in recent seasons. So I turn to you to ask how frustrating is it to know how could your offense can be when healthy, but isn’t healthy?

Choate: Extremely frustrating. The 2013 season was ruined by Julio Jones’ injury and the offensive line falling apart, and knowing that you’re without some of your top playmakers makes every loss and middling performance agonizing.

I hate to tell you this, but you’re headed for some unhappy days.

Keefe: If there’s a such thing as a must-win game in Week 2, this is it for the Giants. After blowing last week’s opener in Dallas, the Giants need to rebound before hosting the Redskins on Thursday Night Football. The good news is the Falcons are a different team when they play away from Georgia Dome and outside. The bad news is the Giants don’t usually play well at home.

For the Falcons, they had a nice Week 1 win over the Eagles as a home underdog, and have a tough start to their season with the Giants this week on the road, in Dallas next week and then home again the Texans the week after.

What do you expect to happen on Sunday?

Choate: I think a desperate Giants team at home is dangerous, and I fear the Falcons will fall to them in a fairly close game. My expectation is a 27-21 Giants win, with the Falcons suffering a little defensive pullback and some struggles playing outside of the Georgia Dome.

I do think it’ll be close, either way, and I hope the Falcons can pull one out.

Blogs • Giants

Sep 10, 2015

NFL Week 1 Picks

I hate the end of summer and post-Labor Day means the days are only going to get shorter and the weather is only going to get colder and soon enough you won’t want to go outside. So here we go. For the next 22 weeks, there’s football.

Keefe To The City has partnered with USA Football Pools for a survivor pool this season. It’s free to play and the winner will get a $250 Visa gift card. Sign up now.

I hate the end of summer. I have seasonal depression, or at least I think I have seasonal depression and post-Labor Day means the days are only going to get shorter and the weather is only going to get colder and soon enough you won’t want to go outside. But I love that football is back tonight, the Giants begin their season in three days, the Yankees are headed to the postseason in some form and the Rangers’ season begins in 27 days. I guess there are some positives to fall.

The beginning of the football season gives every team and every fan a chance to believe in their team and in moments like this happening (that’s me in Boston after the Giants beat the Patriots in Super Bowl XLII. I might have had a few beers). That night I drank in celebration at a bar in Faneuil Hall in the heart of Boston watching the highlights of the game over and over and over and over until the bar kicked us out.

The next morning I woke up without any traces of a hangover and walked out onto Hanover Street, which looked like the opening scenes of Vanilla Sky or I Am Legend. There was hardly any people around and the handful of people I did see had a look of complete devastation across their face. I couldn’t have been happier. That’s what football can do.

I haven’t liked football for a while. The last time I enjoyed football was the second before Russell Wilson threw a pass intended for Ricardo Lockette that was intercepted by Malcolm Butler. Actually, the last time I liked football was the second before Pete Carroll decided to throw the ball on the goal line with the Super Bowl at stake and the best running back in the league on his team. The second before Carroll opened his mouth and suggested that play or agreed to that play was the last time I liked football.

Since that second, the Patriots went on to win the Super Bowl, ending a nine-season drought without a championship, Tom Brady became a four-time Super Bowl champion, Boston sports fans argued that Marshawn Lynch might have not gotten in the end zone from the 1, Darrelle Revis became a champion and the worst thing in the history of sports happened: Deflategate. If Carroll gives the ball to Lynch there, the Seahawks win the Super Bowl, the Patriots are once again losers on the biggest stage, Jermaine Kearse’s catch unseats David Tyree’s catch as the most improbable Super Bowl catch of all time and Deflategate doesn’t spiral out of control because no one cares if a non-championship team may or may not have altered the footballs. But none of that happened and instead for nearly eight months at one point of every day I saw or heard the word “Deflategate” some place.

I was in Seattle for the NFC Championship Game and I saw about two seconds of the AFC Championship Game. I had heard the score and didn’t need to witness the Patriots embarrassing the Colts a week after the Ravens couldn’t close them out. Later that night in the hotel room, my girlfriend showed me a tweet that the Patriots supposedly played with underinflated footballs. My first thought was, “I don’t even know what that means” since I simply didn’t understand if that was good or bad or how that could be an issue. I thought it was just some nonsensical report that would either be laughed at or forgotten. I went to sleep on Jan. 18 not knowing about how footballs are handled before each game, what the proper PSI levels are for footballs or that quarterbacks got to use their own personal footballs in a game. When I woke up on Jan. 19, that nonsensical report hadn’t been forgotten.

I still can’t believe that for nearly all of the 2015 calendar year (minus the 17 days before the AFC Championship Game), Deflategate has pretty much controlled the headlines. The idea that people could spend so much time talking about the air pressure in footballs, reading every piece of information from the investigation and suspension and appeal and listening to sports radio recycle the same mind-blowing opinions on the topic is actually insane. Trying to understand how this much time, attention, money and resources were used on trying to figure out how footballs were lacking the necessary air is like trying to understand why Joe Girardi will use Dellin Betances and Andrew Miller in a game the Yankees are winning by five runs, but not in a game they’re losing by one run or why How to Make it in America was cancelled after two seasons or trying to grasp something as complex as the universe. Deflategate makes my head hurt to think about.

Unfortunately, Deflategate will never go away. The word will always follow Tom Brady, Bill Belichick and the Patriots around just like Spygate has. The Brady/Belichick Patriots will always be the victims of a witch hunt to Patriots fans and cheaters to non-Patriots fans. Even though the D-word is here to say just like the S-word has stayed alive for the last eight years, on Thursday night we will all finally have something else to talk about: a real-life football game. That is, until the Patriots beat the Steelers, like they always do at Gillette Stadium. Then, we will all have to hear about how they cheated to win the season opener too.

Tonight begins a new NFL season and with that comes a new picks season and another 263 games to pick. Last season, I finished 129-130-4, losing the final game of the season, the Super Bowl, on the play that should have gotten Pete Carroll fired. That play motivated me to work hard this offseason and get in the best shape of my life and make sure this picks season doesn’t end the way the last one did.

So here we go. For the next 22 weeks, there’s football.

(Home team in caps)

NEW ENGLAND -7 over Pittsburgh
As a Giants fan, I have to question the Patriots’ so-called cheating tactics. Either they lost on purpose a few times to make it seem like they weren’t cheating the way you might get a few questions wrong on a test on purpose to not make it obvious. Or they are just the worst cheaters of all time.

If the Patriots were videotaping signal givers and stealing playbooks and breaking into hotel rooms for information, did they forget to do these things for some of the biggest games? After their Super Bowl win in 2001, they missed the playoffs in 2002. They won the Super Bowl in 2003 and 2004, but then they lost to Broncos in the playoffs in 2005, blew a 21-6 halftime lead to the Colts in the 2006 AFC Championship Game, blew the perfect season and lost Super Bowl XLII to the Giants, got run out of Gillette by the Ravens in 2010, were embarrassed by the Jets at home in 2011, lost against to the Giants in Super Bowl XLVI, were shut down by the Ravens in 2012 and got dominated by the Broncos in 2013 before winning the Super Bowl this year.

Like I said, the Patriots were either losing on purpose to keep things balanced or they just aren’t very good cheaters given all of the information they supposedly had, taped and stole. Or maybe they just weren’t doing anything that every other team was already doing? No, it can’t be that.

Green Bay -7 over CHICAGO
This season I have made a pledge to myself to go hard after the Bears. I’m not getting suckered into thinking they can or will be good and I’m not changing my mind on them. I don’t care if they start the season 5-0 or or 7-0 or go 10-0 or complete the perfect season. If they do any of those things, good for them, but I’m not changing my mind on the Bears.

HOUSTON -1 over Kansas City
I’m not sure how Bill O’Brien and Rick Smith came to the conclusion that Brian Hoyer should be the Texans’ starting quarterback over Ryan Mallett. To be fair, it’s not like he named Hoyer the starter over a clearly more talented player and the two likely have the same amount of ability. But did they watch Hoyer play for the Browns? If you’re looking for one touchdown, two interceptions and 227 yards then Hoyer is your guy because that’s what he is and because we know what he is, why not start Mallett? At least there is a chance he might be somewhat good or at least better than Hoyer.

NEW YORK JETS -3 over Cleveland
The Jets always seem to get a cupcake game in Week 1 even if there is supposedly no such thing in the NFL. Last season, the Jets opened at home against the Raiders. The year before they opened at home against the Buccaneers. The year before that they opened at home against the Bills. It’s like they are playing the equivalent of Alcorn State, Tennessee-Martin and Arkansas State in Week 1. The Jets seem to always win in Week 1 because they’re at home against a weak opponent, which is once again the case this season, and then the Jets are 1-0 and their fans start mapping out their route to a postseason berth and before you know it they’re 1-3 and trying to keep their season alive.

After this game, the Jets follow with at Indianapolis, home against Philadelphia and at Miami before their Week 5 bye. Todd Bowles better get his first win as Jets head coach against the Browns or he might not be getting it until Oct. 18 and Week 6 against Washington. That’s a long ways away and there’s a lot of time between now and then for Jets fans to buy billboards and fly planes over practice suggesting he be fired.

BUFFALO +3 over Indianapolis
I wouldn’t mind seeing the Bills do well and have a winning season and make the playoffs. The only problem with that is their quarterback is Tyrod Taylor. His backup is Matt Cassell. His back up is EJ Manuel. That’s a big problem to have, but so is not having a run defense, which the Colts still don’t have.

Miami -4 over WASHINGTON
This is the official survivor pool Week 1 pick for just about everyone. In a week in which there are many even-matched and coin-flip games, you can always count on the Redskins to give you a much-needed win to stay alive.

For the last few years, we have been hearing about how the Dolphins will challenge the Patriots in the AFC East and each time they have failed. This year, the Dolphins are supposed to be even better and once again challenge the Patriots and reach the postseason for the first time since 2008. If the Dolphins are as good and reliable as they are being hyped up to be then this line is incredibly low. Even if the Dolphins are an average team, this line is too low. Even if the Dolphins are in the bottom third or bottom fourth of teams in the league, this is line is still too low. That’s how bad the 2015 Redskins are.

JACKSONVILLE +3.5 over Carolina
The Game of the Week. Somewhere someone who isn’t a Jaguars fan or a Panthers fan is going to bet on this game and watch it in its entirety. Thank about that.

Seattle -4.5 over ST. LOUIS
The Seahawks and I are not on good terms. After I became an honorary Seahawks fan and a 12 for the Super Bowl they went on to blow a 10-point lead and blow the game to ruin my Super Bowl Sunday and the days that have followed since. I don’t know if I’ll ever be able to forgive them for the loss and I absolutely will never forgive Pete Carroll for his play call. But if the Seahawks (and Pete Carroll isn’t included in this) are going to try to win me back it’s going to be by consistently covering spreads week in and week out. Here’s their first chance at redemption.

ARIZONA -3 over New Orleans
We all know what happens when you take the Saints out of the Superdome. Now take them out of the Superdome without Jimmy Graham.

SAN DIEGO -3 over Detroit
These two teams are the same to me and this is the hardest game of the week to pick. I did trade Matthew Stafford for Eli Manning in fantasy football, so I have to root heavily against Stafford this season.

TAMPA BAY -3 over Tennessee
Jameis Winston vs. Marcus Mariota in Week 1. I’m surprised this hasn’t been sold as the “Peyton Manning vs. Tom Brady of the future”. If it were, Winston would be Manning would weapons like Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson and Mariota would be Brady with Kendall Wright and Harry Douglas to throw to. I’m thankful that the NFL Sunday Ticket is available to everyone this year, so that I don’t have to be forced to have the NFL Red Zone get stuck on this game since the only thing I would need or any non-Bucs and non-Titans fan would need from this game is the final score.

OAKLAND +3.5 over Cincinnati
I could care less about the NFL preseason. It’s baseball season until the Yankees either win the World Series or are eliminated and even if you don’t like baseball, there has to be something better to do with your time than watch meaningless preseason football games. The only crazier people in the world than those who watch preseason games are those who attend them. It’s not like spring training where you’re likely getting away from cold weather and enjoying the sun and watching a product that resembles what you see for 162 games in the summer.

The only thing I look for in preseason are finding out which key Giants were injured since it’s inevitable and videos of Andy Dalton throwing interceptions. And there’s only one thing more entertaining than Andy Dalton preseason interceptions and that’s Andy Dalton regular-season interceptions and once again there will be a lot of them.

DENVER -5 over Baltimore
Since I don’t watch preseason football, the last time I watched Peyton Manning play he was throwing wobbly passes as if he were trying to make a Nerf ball without seams spiral and the passes weren’t going to anyone. He finished that home playoff loss against the Colts at 26-of-46 for 211 yards and a touchdown despite coming off a bye, which momentarily made everyone think the Colts had a chance against the Patriots before they were blown out.

I have no idea what Manning will look like this season if he could have looked so bad against a bad defense with a trip to the AFC Championship Game on the line. I don’t think he would have come back if he were going to continue to play like that, so for now, I’m trusting that a healthier, yet older, Peyton Manning came back because he would be good enough to cover spreads once again.

New York Giants +6 over DALLAS
I’m overly confident in the Giants right now. I’m talking high levels of irrational confidence about a team that has gone 13-19 over the last two seasons and hasn’t made the playoffs in the the last three seasons. That could all change in one minute on Sunday night or even one play if Eli Manning opens the season with a first-play interception the way he did against the Cowboys in Week 1 on Sunday Night Football two years ago.

What scares me the most about the 2015 Giants isn’t the absurd amount of preseason injuries for the third straight year or the health of Victor Cruz or the absences of Jason Pierre-Paul or the offensive line or the secondary. What scares me the most is what Prince Amukamara said about this game by calling it a “must-win.”

“I could see everyone’s [butt] getting tight, everyone feeling like they are on the hot seat. You definitely don’t want that feeling around. It’s a bad disease.

“I think that can break the team’s morale, especially with the guys that have already been here and have experienced 0-1, than 0-2 and 0-6 (in 2013). It’s just a bad taste in your mouth. And with this organization, which wants to win now and always has a sense of urgency.”

The idea that a Week 1 loss could cause the team’s butts to “get tight” and “break the team’s morale” isn’t exactly reassuring for the season if they do lose to the Cowboys. Since Amukamara basically called this game the Super Bowl following the most uninspiring preseason from the Giants maybe ever, I’m not scared about this game, I’m petrified.

ATLANTA +3 over Philadelphia
Everywhere I turn I see the Eagles being picked to win the NFC East and be a Super Bowl contender. Is Sam Bradford not the Eagles’ starting quarterback? Has he not missed the last 23 regular-season games? Was the last time he played in an NFL game not Oct. 20, 2013?

In five seasons, Bradford has played 16 games twice and has played in 49 of a possible 80 games (61 percent). If Bradford were to get hurt and miss time, which obviously is a real possibility, then the Eagles would turn to Mark Sanchez once again. If you forgot, the Eagles were 7-2 last season and with Sanchez as the starting quarterback, they went on to miss the playoffs.

The Phillies are fighting to not be the worst team in baseball, the Flyers are horrible and the 76ers haven’t been good since Allen Iverson played for them. If the Eagles aren’t good, the Philadelphia sports landscape will be full of bad teams, which is more incentive to pick against the Eagles.

Minnesota -2.5 over SAN FRANCISCO
I have no idea when I’m going to sleep in the next five days. The Yankees have a four-game series against the Blue Jays beginning on Thursday. The NFL season opens on Thursday. The first NFL Sunday is this Sunday and the Giants play at 8:30 p.m. There is the Week 1 Monday Night Football doubleheader with the second game (this game) starting at 10:15 p.m. Normally this is like Raiders-Chargers and I could watch it while falling asleep, but my girlfriend is a Vikings fan, so I will be awake and invested in this game. Since I will be watching intently with a crazed Vikings fan next to me, I have to go with the Vikings here otherwise the next time I will be able to get a good night’s sleep won’t be as early as Tuesday.

Don’t forget to sign up for Keefe To The City survivor pool presented by USA Football Pools. It’s free to play and the winner will get a $250 Visa gift card. Sign up now.

Giants • Podcasts

Sep 18, 2014

Podcast: Brian Monzo

In the next seven days the Giants will play two games and have a chance to save their season in one week with two wins. Or a chance to ruin their season with two losses.

A must-win game in Week 3 of the season? Of course! It wouldn’t be a New York Football Giants season without the Giants putting their season on the brink before the end of September. But in the next seven days, the Giants will play two games against two beatable opponents and could turn their disastrous start around.

WFAN Mike’s On: Francesa on the FAN producer Brian Monzo joined me to talk about the Giants’ problems through the first two games, if the Giants can and save their season before its lost and how the first two weeks of gambling on the NFL have gone.

Blogs • Giants

Sep 9, 2014

Giants-Lions Week 1 Thoughts: Debacle in Detroit

The Giants opened the 2014 season the same way they opened the 2013 season. The only difference is that they were in Detroit this year and not Dallas.

One year ago when the Giants lost 36-31 to the Cowboys in Dallas on Sunday Night Football, I was disappointed about the Giants’ sloppy six-turnover effort. But it was promising knowing that despite turning the ball over six times (three interceptions, three fumbles), Eli Manning threw for 450 yards and four touchdowns, Victor Cruz had three touchdowns and 118 receiving yards and Hakeem Nicks had 114 receiving yards.

On Monday night when the Giants lost 35-14 to the Lions in Detroit, I was disappointed because I had waited since Nov. 24 (Week 12) for a meaningful Giants game and they turned in an embarrassing effort. There wasn’t anything promosing about Monday night. Eli Manning looked like he was asked to learn sign language in Ben McAdoo’s offense and either he learned it incorrectly (unlikely) or his receivers didn’t care to learn it (very likely), the Giants’ receivers couldn’t hang on to passes, the offensive line left Eli exposed enough to nearly end his career and the hyped-up secondary looked as bad as any Giants secondary in recent years.

Monday night went as bad as anyone could have imagined for the Giants in the first game of the season. Calvin Johnson set the tone, the Giants’ offensive problems looked like a continuation of the preseason and the Lions walked into a win that not even Jim Caldwell could mess up. A year ago, we had the “Disaster in Dallas” to begin the 2013 season and on Monday night, we had the “Debacle in Detroit” to begin the 2014 season.

– Let’s start with Eli Manning because it’s up to him to make the 2014 Giants’ season not play out the way 2013 did. The problem with Eli’s success is that his success is tied directly to that of Ben McAdoo and his receivers. Eli (18-for-33, 163 yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs) was far from his best and far from even mediocrity, but McAdoo, who was supposed to come here and make the Giants’ offense Packers East, was calling plays the way Kevin Gilbride would have, and Eli’s receivers, clearly lost with the new offense, were busy running wrong routes and dropping passes.

Eli looked ridiculous giving hand signals at the line rather than yelling “Omaha!” or telling everyone at home who is wearing the mic on the defense. It was almost as if Eli was being threatened with a 15-yard unsportsmanlike penalty for talking as he turned to receivers to give them index finger into hole signals, looking like he was a fourth grader who realized for the first time that he could do things with his hands to represent intercourse. And he looked lost trying to let Larry Donnell know where he was supposed to be on the line by using his hands to look like he was wringing out a wet towel and by touching his body all over the place as if he was trying to let a hitter and baserunner know that a hit-and-run is on.

Eli can’t do it by himself because no quarterback can, but things don’t seem like they are going to get better around him. The offensive line is bad and there’s no real help on the way. The Giants’ best receiver is a 21-year-old rookie, who has never really even practiced with the team, let alone played in a game or built any chemistry with Eli. And the offensive coordinator has never been an offensive coordinator before at any level. So let’s get to that offensive coordinator.

– Mike Tirico decided to chime in and take a shot at an offensive line-less and receiver-less Eli by hyping up Aaron Rodgers and saying how we should all be thankful Rodgers was born since he is so brilliant in the same offense Eli is trying to run. But Jon Gruden stepped in and shot down Tirico’s ridiculous praise for Rodgers by mentioning the obvious fact that “Rodgers has been in that system for years, Eli has been in this system for months.”

That system is the Packers’ or Mike McCarthy’s and now it’s Ben McAdoo’s, which is some form of those mixed with his own additions and modifications.

Ben McAdoo was hired on Jan. 14, which means he had 238 days until opening night to get the Giants’ offense set. The NFL schedule was released on April 23, which means the Giants knew for at least 138 days that they would be playing the Lions. That means for the last 138 days McAdoo has been thinking up his first-drive plays to use against the Lions. So what did the Giants run on their opening drive (trailing 7-0)?

First-and-10 at New York 20: Rashad Jennings left tackle to New York 18 for -2 yards.

Second-and-12 at New York 18: Rashad Jennings right tackle to New York 19 for 1 yard.

Third-and-11 at New York 19: Eli Manning pass incomplete short right to Jerrel Jernigan.

Run, run, pass intended to the fifth- or sixth-best offensive option to begin the season with a three-and-out? Are we sure Gilbride didn’t make a promise with Jerry Reese and Tom Coughlin that he would resign, but the Giants had to promise to use whatever three plays he wanted to begin the 2014 season? I thought we were going to get a taste of Aaron Rodgers and put an emphasis on the passing game in the 2014 NFL in which every rule change and adjustment to the game has been made to help the quarterback, receivers and passing in the league. But instead we got the same exact offense we were supposedly getting rid of.

In the third quarter, after giving up a field goal to trail 17-7, the Giants took over at their own 20 following a touchback. Here’s how McAdoo decided to orchestrate the ensuing drive:

First-and-10 at New York 20: Rashad Jennings up the middle to New York 20 for no gain.

Second-and-10 at New York 20: Rashad Jennings right tackle to New York 23 for 3 yards.

Third-and-7 at New York 23: Eli Manning pass short middle to Jerrel Jernigan to New York 26 for 3 yards.

Does that sequence look familiar?

In the fourth quarter with 4:39 left and the Lions leading 35-14 and the game out of reach, the Giants had the ball with a chance to get some garbage-time plays in and get some vital practice with their new offense against a non-practice and non-preseason opponent. Here’s how that drive went:

First-and-10 at New York 20: Eli Manning pass short right to Rashad Jennings to New York 35 for 15 yards.

First-and-10 at New York 35: Eli Manning pass short left to Rashad Jennings to New York 44 for 9 yards.

Second-and-1 at New York 44: Eli Manning pass incomplete deep right to Victor Cruz.

Third-and-1 at New York 44: Andre Williams left end to New York 44 for no gain.

Fourth-and-1 at New York 44: Andre Williams up the middle to New York 44 for no gain.

Eli Manning had 32 passes targeted at receivers. Here’s the breakdown of where those pass attempts went to:

Larry Donnell: 8 (24%)
Jerrel Jernigan: 7 (21%)
Victor Cruz: 6 (18%)
Rashad Jennings: 5 (15%)
Rueben Randle: 3 (9%)
Daniel Fells: 1 (3%)
Corey Washington: 1 (3%)
Andre Williams: 1 (3%)

Cruz, the team’s best receiver, was targeted just the third-most times and Rueben Randle, the team’s second-best receiver, was targeted the fifth-most times, four times less than Jernigan.

One game might not be enough for me to start asking to bring Kevin Gilbride, which would be the equivalent of me asking for the Yankees to bring A.J. Burnett or Nick Swisher or extend Mark Teixeira’s contract for five more years, but that’s all we have to go off of right now and McAdoo didn’t impress in his Giants debut.

– Victor Cruz caught two passes for 24 yards and was targeted six times. I believe five of those six times came after a rough first quarter for Manning when it was obvious that Cruz was upset and frustrated he wasn’t getting the ball. I was upset and frustrated too. Especially since Jerrel Jernigan was all of a sudden being thrown to as if he had become 2009 Steve Smith or 2011 Cruz. But as Manning started to go back to his trusted receiver, Cruz bobbled and dropped his passes, several of which were for potential big gains.

The Giants chose to pay Cruz (five years, $43 million) instead of Nicks and then decided not to pay Nicks at all after his 13-game, touchdown-less 2013 season, so he went to Indianapolis for cheap and signed a one-year, $3.975 million deal. Cruz is not a No. 1 receiver even if he is supposed to be. He is a No. 1 receiver the same way Chien-Ming Wang was an ace. He is a slot receiver, who put up big numbers because he was on the field with Nicks, who is a real No. 1. Monday night was a glimpse into life without a true No. 1 receiver to protect Cruz and he was awful.

– In the third quarter, the Lions, leading 17-7, started first-and-10 at their own 25 and Robert Ayers sacked Matthew Stafford for a loss of five yards and celebrated as if he was Jay Alford ending Tom Brady and the Patriots’ quest for perfection in Super Bowl XLII. Losing by 10 points and getting to the quarterback for the first time in the game in the third quarter and acting the way Ayers did was embarrassing. Two plays later, Golden Tate caught a 44-yard pass on third-and-11. For some reason, I didn’t see Ayers on camera acting as if he just doubled an 11 and got a 10 with $20,000 on the table following Tate’s big play.

I didn’t think anyone could one-up Ayers’ celebration, but on the same drive, just six plays after Ayers’ sack, Prince Amukamara was able to knock the ball out of Joseph Fauria’s hands in the end zone on second-and-Goal from the 9 to prevent a touchdown and then one-upped Ayers. Amukamara emphatically gave the incomplete sign as if he was signaling that the winning run had scored in the bottom of the ninth inning in Game 7 of the World even though Fauria had caught a 26-yard pass on second-and-13 from the Giants’ 35 just two plays earlier to put the Lions at the Giants’ 9.

– Calvin Johnson had seven catches for 164 yards and two touchdowns and it felt like way more than that. His first touchdown, a 67-yard wide-open reception, gave me flashbacks to the days of DeSean Jackson backpedaling and simultaneously laughing at the Giants’ secondary. Except this Giants’ secondary was supposed to be different. But in Tom Coughlin’s halftime spot with ESPN, he summed up the first half by saying, “We hung in there,” which showed the Giants haven’t changed. If the Yankees are using, “Our history. Your tradition,” then maybe Coughlin just gave the Giants their slogan for 2014. “The 2014 New York Giants: We hung in there.”

The problem is the Giants didn’t continue to “hang in there” after Coughlin offered that wisdom. The Giants were then outscored 13-0 in the third quarter and 21-7 in the second half on the way to their three-touchdown loss. “We hung in there” isn’t a phrase that breeds confidence let alone winning and the Giants did anything but “hang in” a game they allowed the Lions to go 10-for-15 on third down. To make matters worse here is how those successful third downs played out:

1. Third-and-9 at Detroit 33: 67-yard touchdown pass to Calvin Johnson.

2. Third-and-13 at New York 16: 16-yard touchdown pass to Calvin Johnson.

3. Third-and-3 at Detroit 38: 9-yard pass to Golden Tate.

4. Third-and-4 at New York 47: 24-yard pass to Calvin Johnson.

5. Third-and-11 at Detroit 24: 44-yard pass to Golden Tate.

6. Third-and-5 at New York 5: 5-yard touchdown run for Matthew Stafford.

7. Third-and-7 at Detroit 23: 22-yard pass to Calvin Johnson.

8. Third-and-5 at 50: 11-yard pass to Calvin Johnson.

9. Third-and-4 at New York 13: 10-yard pass to Golden Tate.

10. Third-and-3 at New York 37: 12-yard pass to Golden Tate.

Those third-down letdowns were the bad part of Giants football that still hasn’t changed and maybe never will, but it doesn’t look like the good part of Giants football is going to return soon to make up for it.

It’s almost impossible to remember that this team won the Super Bowl 31 months ago and it’s hard to remember that this team won seven games just last year since right now seven wins seems unfathomable. The Yankees barely got me to the Giants, and right now, I don’t see the Giants even getting me to the Rangers.

Tag: Victor Cruz

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