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Postseason Pitching Fears

After Justin Verlander’s 14 strikeouts on Monday night, it’s time to start thinking about which pitchers the Yankees shouldn’t want to see in the ALDS this October.

I spend an unhealthy amount of time worrying about who the Yankees will play in the ALDS, considering the possibilities and doing hours of math involving the American League standings. But I have learned over the years that all the time I spend looking at the standings, matchups, lineups, rotations and history is meaningless and the stress caused by my obsession of picking a first-round opponent for the Yankees is unnecessary.

I can’t make the Yankees have the best record in the AL and put the Orioles and White Sox in the one-game playoff and then have the Orioles win that game so the Yankees play them. I can’t hope that the Yankees face the Orioles rather than the Rangers, White Sox, Tigers, Angels, A’s, or Rays. However, no matter what I want, it usually plays out the way I want as if I’m the subject of a Matt Christopher book, and it’s not always for the best.

Last year I wanted the Yankees to play the Tigers in the ALDS, just like I did in 2006, and it backfired, just like it did in 2006.

In 2010 and 2009, I wanted the Twins and it worked out.

In 2008, I hated baseball for the summer. I like to pretend that season didn’t happen the way the 2004 playoffs didn’t happen because of the strike. Remember the strike of 2004? That sucked.

In 2007, I wanted the Indians. When Johnny Damon led off the series with a home run, I had the same “This is too easy” feeling I had when the Yankees crushed the Tigers in Game 1 the year before. Chien-Ming Wang made me regret my decision to want the Indians in Games 1 and 4 (Paul Byrd helped me regret the decision in Game 4), and when Joba Chamberlain was sprayed down with bug spray for the midges (which we later found out was the opposite way to handle the midges and was basically the equivalent of jumping into a pool of sharks while holding steaks and having open wounds on your body) while Fausto Carmona/Roberto Hernandez kept pitching like nothing was going on (I think I actually saw him eating some of the midges), I knew the Yankees were effed.

We talked about 2006, so in 2005 I stupidly wanted the Yankees to win the division and they did on the final weekend of the season thanks to the head-to-head tiebreaker. But because of this, they had to face the Angels in the ALDS instead of the White Sox. Now the White Sox did win 99 games, but I think if the Yankees had faced the White Sox, I don’t think they would have lost to Jose Contreras, Mark Buehrle and Freddy Garcia (and an epic relief appearance from El Duque) the way the Red Sox did and I don’t think Ozzie Guillen is still a manager in the league because he wouldn’t have that World Series on his resume, which has to be the only thing keeping him employed. Then again, maybe the Yankees beat the White Sox, but the Red Sox beat the Angels and then beat the Yankees in the ALCS for the second year in a row and I’m off the grid for now almost seven years with no human interaction, or maybe I’m living in Iceland and doing whatever people do in Iceland, which I would think doesn’t involve watching or following baseball.

In 2003 and 2004 I also wanted the Twins and I got them. In case you haven’t noticed, the Yankees haven’t advanced to ALCS against a team not named the Minnesota Twins since 2001 when they came back from down 0-2 against the A’s in the ALDS. (I just checked and the Twins are 12 back in the Central and 10-1/2 games back in the wild card. This isn’t good for the Yankees’ chances of getting to the ALCS.)

Like I said, the amount of time I have spent over the years trying to figure the best possible ALDS matchup for the Yankees has been a complete waste of time. If I had put this much time into actual schoolwork over the years, who knows where I would be right now? Maybe I would be teaching advanced physics at Yale or working as an orthopedic surgeon and living in Greenwich? Instead I’m looking at Ivan Nova’s 2012 game log and wondering how the guy who went 3-0 with a 1.26 ERA in five starts in June has gone 1-4 with a 6.75 ERA in seven starts since July 3, filling A.J. Burnett’s 2010-11 role nicely.

On Monday night, Nova was bad again (5.1 IP, 11 7 R, 7 ER, 0 BB, 5 K, 2 HR) and the Yankees lost to the second-best pitcher on the planet (you’re welcome, King Felix). Justin Verlander turned in an eight-inning, 14-strikeout performance to beat the Yankees for the first time in three starts this season. His effort combined with home runs from Prince Fielder and Miguel Cabrera confirmed that I won’t be pulling to see the Tigers in the ALDS this year.

But if not the Tigers, then who? It’s too hard to say. The second wild card has turned the league into a five-alarm gongshow and there are currently seven teams within five games of a one-game playoff. When you factor in the three division leaders that leaves just four teams (Seattle, Cleveland, Minnesota and Kansas City) whose seasons are actually over. The Yankees could potentially play the Rangers, White Sox, Tigers, Angels, A’s, Orioles, Red Sox or Blue Jays in the ALDS. That means I really have nothing to pull for, wish for or root for. The second wild card has taken the Yankees’ first-round opponent out of my hands even if it’s always been out of my hands.

So since I can’t hope for a team, Verlander’s start on Monday night made me think about which pitchers I don’t want to see in the five-game series. And because Felix Hernandez’s career is being wasted on the Mariners, Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay are in the NL and Colby Lewis is out for the year, I narrowed it down to four starters that I don’t want to see in the ALDS this fall.

(List Spoiler Alert: James Shields and Jered Weaver are NOT on this list. If I need the Yankees to win an elimination game against “Big Game” James who has the most misleading nickname since my friend we call “Big Kinsel,” who is a 5-foot-10, 155-pound Asian, or Jered Weaver, who is a blood relative of Jeff Weaver, I’m more than confident. If the Yankees have to face either of those two pitchers in a must-win game, I’m “Coach Taylor trailing 26-0 at halftime of State” confident in knowing that the Yankees are going to be fine.)

4. Ryan Dempster
I couldn’t even type that with a straight face. OK, let’s be serious…

4. Doug Fister
This isn’t as much about Doug Fister as it is what he represents. Fister is the non-elite starter who possesses the recipe for disaster for the Yankees. He knows how to pitch; he isn’t going to ruin a game unless someone like Al Alburquerque (yes, he’s real, Mike Francesa!) gets called upon to ruin it for him; he isn’t going to maybe have it or maybe not like A.J. Burnett or Max Scherzer; he’s going to keep the Yankees off balance, throw strikes and not hand out free passes. Doug Fister represents Colby Lewis, Tommy Hunter, Paul Byrd, Kenny Rogers and Jeremy Bonderman and all the other starters that have beat the Yankees in the playoffs in recent years that you weren’t worried about losing to before the first pitch.

Find me a Yankees fan that thought the Yankees would lose Game 5 of the 2011 ALDS. When your back’s against the wall in an elimination game on the road with A.J. Burnett on the mound and you escape a bases-loaded jam in the first inning and go on to win to send the series back to the Stadium, you know you’re going to win. I knew the Yankees were going to win.

They didn’t win.

Yes, Fister lost the weird Game 1 at the Stadium last year and got charged with six earned runs, but four of them came on the grand slam that Alburquerque gave up to Robinson Cano. He bounced back in Game 5 of the series at the Stadium in a game no one thought the Yankees could lose. He was forced to throw 92 pitches in five innings, but only allowed one earned run on a two-out solo home run to Cano with the Tigers up 3-0 in the fifth.

Doug Fister reminds me of Cliff Lee. He works deep into games, doesn’t throw hard, has great location, doesn’t walk a lot of people and started to make a run at being an elite starter in his late 20s. When I hear “Doug Fister,” I think “Cliff Lee.” When I see Doug Fister, I think right-handed Cliff Lee. When it’s the playoffs, the last person I ever want to see is Cliff Lee, and that means I don’t want to see Doug Fister. He’s already gone into the Bronx and won when no one thought he could. When you survive an elimination setting in the Stadium, you earn the element of fear from me.

3. Chris Sale
Chris Sale is 23 years old. He has made 19 starts in the majors. He has never thrown a pitch in October. Those three things might make you wonder why he is on this list. These next two things won’t.

Chris Sale throws with his left arm. He has never started a game against the Yankees.

The real No. 1 pitcher on this list should be Any Lefty Pitching Against The Yankees For the First Time or Any Starter Making His MLB Debut, but since that’s not a real person, I couldn’t give the No. 1 spot to a general group of pitchers. Chris Sale is very close to being part of the group.

Sale has actually pitched against the Yankees before, but has never started a game. He has made three relief appearances, pitching 3-1/3 scoreless innings and allowing one hit with two walks and five strikeouts. This year Sale is 13-3 with a 2.59 ERA, 8.3 K/9 and 2.1 BB/9 and 12 of his 20 starts have been six innings or more with two earned runs or less.

Chris Sale means Robinson Cano and Curtis Granderson are less dangerous, Mark Teixeira and Nick Swisher get turned around, Ichiro is less effective and the short porch at the Stadium isn’t the same.

I don’t want to see an elite lefty or someone who doesn’t walk people against the Yankees. That’s Chris Sale.

2. David Price
David Price means Robinson Cano and Curtis Granderson are less dangerous, Mark Teixeira and Nick Swisher get turned around, Ichiro is less effective and the short porch at the Stadium isn’t the same.

I don’t want to see an elite lefty or someone who doesn’t walk people against the Yankees. That’s David Price.

Sorry, I didn’t want to plagiarize myself, but I had to.

Price has made three postseason starts and lost them all. However, those three postseason starts came against the 2010 and 2011 Rangers. His line from those three starts: 19.1 IP, 24 H, 11 R, 10 ER, 1 BB, 17 K. Again, we’re talking about the best offense in baseball in the Rangers, and not the most sporadic offense in baseball (especially in October) in the Yankees.

The Rangers would probably welcome David Price in Game 1 of the playoffs, but a power lefty against the Yankees’ lineup? I’ll pass.

1. Justin Verlander
You would think that after an eight-inning, 14-strikeout performance from the reigning MVP and Cy Young, I would want no part of seeing Verlander for a third time in the playoffs in the ALDS, and you’re right, I don’t. But if it happened I wouldn’t be that worried either. Verlander doesn’t put the fear of God in me the way that Felix or Cliff Lee do, but he’s right there.

In all honesty, I’m not as scared of Justin Verlander as I probably should be. The Yankees have beat him in in two of his three starts against them this season and they rallied to come back against him in Game 3 last year. In 2006, they would have won Game 2 against him if Mike Mussina didn’t cough up the game the way only Mike Mussina could.

I said I wasn’t going to waste anymore time trying to solve the Yankees’ potential ALDS opponent puzzle or trying to worry about pitching matchups and I meant it. The only thing I really need to worry about is whether the middle of the order will hit with runners in scoring position, and that’s not something I can change or something I should spend my summer worrying about. I have October for that.

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Freddy Garcia Gives Reason to ‘Trust’ Him

Freddy Garcia had a lot on the line on Monday night in Tampa Bay in a crucial stretch for the Yankees, so it only made sense to do a retro recap of his first start since April.

“Dirty Dozen” is what the Daily News headline read on May 15, 2007. The Yankees were eight games out in the AL East and a 12-game stretch against the White Sox, Mets, Red Sox and Angels was said to be the defining moment of the season. Either the Yankees were going to climb out of their 17-20 hole, or Joe Torre’s job was going to be seriously questioned following two straight ALDS exits and whatever happened in the strike-shortened season of 2004 in which there were no playoffs.

Mike Lupica wrote a column that day that called for that headline. In it he talked to Brian Cashman about the state of the Yankees and whether or not an aura still surrounded the team. The Yankees’ answered Lupica’s question and the Daily News’ headline by going 4-8 over the 12 games and sat at 21-27 after the four series.

At the end of that season, the 12-game stretch – that I took as a set of 12 one-game playoffs because the Daily News made it seem like that – ended up being just part of a bad stretch to begin a 94-win season. The 2007 Yankees proved that it’s hard to distinguish the key moment in a season or the turning point of a season when the season is still going on. But this hasn’t stopped us from pulling out parts of the season and deeming them more important than other parts.

I first saw the week of July 2 the day the Yankees’ 2012 schedule came out: seven games on the road against Tampa Bay and Boston to finish the first half. Up until last Wednesday at around 11 a.m. I viewed this week as a chance for the Yankees to separate themselves even more than they already have in the division and possibly take themselves out of the one-game playoff scenario before the All-Star Game. (Crazy, right? A wise coach one said, “It’s not worth winning if you can’t win big.” Yes, that coach was Coach Reilly in The Mighty Ducks.”)

But on Wednesday at around 11 a.m. CC Sabathia hit the disabled list with a low-grade groin strain. About three hours after that Andy Pettitte’s ankle was broken by a line drive. About 31 hours after that, Joe Girardi managed the Yankees to a loss to the White Sox despite having a two-run lead entering the ninth. About 21 hours after that, Adam Warren making his major league debut in place of CC Sabathia blew a 4-0 first-inning lead and put 10 men on base in 2 1/3 innings as the Yankees allowed 14 runs (the most runs they have allowed this year) to the White Sox. The idea of trying to create even more separation in the division suddenly became a mission to just hold down the fort (a favorite Brian Cashman saying) until CC returns.

The biggest problem, aside from losing CC and Andy, became the idea that Freddy Garcia would rejoin the rotation for the first time since a disastrous April that has to make April 2009 Chien-Ming Wang and April 2011 Phil Hughes not feel so bad about their places in history. In four starts, Garcia put together this line: 13.2 IP, 25 H, 20 R, 19 ER, 5 BB, 11 K, 3 HR, 12.51 ERA, 2.195 WHIP. Who would want the owner of those numbers to take the ball every fifth day for them? More importantly, who would want the owner of those numbers to take the ball in Tampa Bay and then in Boston in his first two starts since being removed from the rotation? Not me.

Monday night marked an important game for the Yankees because it would start this seven-game finish to the first half against the team’s two direct threats, and it would be the debut of the return of Freddy “The Chief” Garcia. With such a significant game and start, I decided to watch Garcia’s outing and write down my thoughts during his innings of work for a retro recap. Here’s what happened.

First Inning
Freddy Garcia has a two-run lead to work with thanks to a four-hit first inning from the offense. Let’s see if he can do the opposite of what Adam Warren did with an early lead. I’m setting the over/under on innings at 4 2/3, hits at seven and wild pitches at two.

Garcia gets things going with an 88-mph fastball called strike to Desmond Jennings. Some velocity from The Chief!

Garcia gets a little bit of luck (no, not the Lotto guy) as Jennings hits a grounder up the middle and Garcia goes for it, but it deflects off his glove and to Robinson Cano for the first out. If that gets through then Jennings is off and running, and this might be Adam Warren Friday Night 2.0.

No one ever wants to see Josh Hamilton or Jose Bautista or Albert Pujols up against them, but to me, Carlos Pena falls into that same category even if his numbers don’t match up. I felt like the Charlestown Chiefs locker room when they found out Ogie Ogilthorpe was suspended when Pena moved to the NL Central last year. And I felt like the Charlestown Chiefs lineup when they saw Ogilthorpe skate out for introductions when Pena signed with the Rays and returned to the AL East this year.

Garcia gets Pena to 2-2 and then tries to paint the inside corner with a 90-mph fastball that looked like the signature Bartolo Colon two-strike pitch to lefties. The count runs full, but Pena flies out to center for the second out.

Ah, B.J. Upton … yet another guy that most fan bases wouldn’t understand why I don’t want to see him up against the Yankees.

Ken Singleton tells us that Upton is currently 3-for-41, and Lou Piniella says, “Upton should be more consistent than he is.” Everyone always say that Upton has all the potential in the world and should be one of the best players in the league. Upton will be 28 next month, so at what point do we stop thinking he is going to be a perennial All-Star and do we just accept the type of player that he is? I know the 2008 ALCS is a reason to believe that he can be one of the premier players in the game, but as a career .255 hitter, who hasn’t hit over .243 since 2008, he needs to start showing it.

Upton flies out to right field on a great diving catch by Nick Swisher (see, I can give Swisher credit when he deserves it) to end the inning.

After a 1-2-3, 14-pitch first inning from Garcia, I’m really too scared to comment on his performance or his stuff at this point. Why break up a good thing?

Second Inning
Jeff Keppinger replaces Hideki Matsui to lead off the second inning, as Matsui injured himself running after a Derek Jeter foul ball. I used to always think the Yankees were overreacting when they wouldn’t let Matsui play the outfield in 2009, and I thought it was a non-story when people were surprised that he was allowed to play it with the Angels in 2010 and the A’s in 2011. But I guess there’s a reason why Matsui is supposed to only be a DH at this point and not playing right field on turf.

Keppinger drills the first pitch (a fastball down the middle) to left field for a leadoff single and the first hit off Garcia. There goes the perfect game.

Ben Zobrist cranks a 1-2 pitch down the right-field line and it looks like it’s going to be a two-run home run, but it misses the foul pole by a few feet and now I have to erase the “Ladies and gentlemen, Freddy Garcia” tweet I had started typing. I only got as far as “Ladies and gentlem” before the ball went foul.

Zobrist hits a rocket to the gap, but Swisher gets there for the first out. (It’s probably not good when you’re worried about your right fielder making every catch.)

Luke Scott comes to the plate, and if you’re going to have the facial hair design that Scott has you better be an unbelievable hitter. Because if you’re going to go to the plate looking like that and the big screen in the outfield shows that you’re hitting .207 and Ken Singleton tells us that you are in a for 1-for-30 slide then you might want to think about toning the look down.

Scott hits a line drive, but right to Mark Teixeira who steps on first for a double play to end the inning.

Luck has certainly been on Garcia’s side so far. How does that saying go? It’s better to be lucky than good? I think Garcia would sign up for that since no one knows if he’s even good anymore.

An 11-pitch second inning and Garcia has faced the minimum.

Third Inning
Jose Lobaton flies to right on a 1-2 slider to start things off.

Here’s Will Rhymes, who I have never liked from his days with the Tigers, and really for no specific reason. But if that feeling is triggered then he must have done something against the Yankees in the last two years.

Rhymes singles to left on a 1-1 curveball from Garcia and the Rays have their second baserunner.

Elliot Johnson pops out to A-Rod and Garcia is one out away from three scoreless innings. If you had told me before the game that Garcia would pitch three scoreless innings, I would have laughed at you then cried tears of joy when I realized you weren’t kidding and then hugged you to make sure the world wasn’t going to end. We’re one out away from me hugging you anyway.

Jennings grounds out for the second time on 1-2 slider to second. Garcia throws just 13 pitches in the inning and is at a very economical 38 through three. He’s expected to throw between 65 and 70 for the game.

Fourth Inning
Garcia strikes out Pena to lead off the fourth inning, for his first strikeout of the game, and it’s always good to see Pena go down swinging (this time on a slider).

Just as I’m about to type a B.J. Upton joke, he hits a first-pitch slider for a solo home run to left field to cut the Yankees’ lead to 2-1. Upton had been 3-for-42, and just like most players who are slumping, the Yankees are always there to right the ship.

Keppinger goes down swinging and Zobrist grounds out to second to end the inning. A 14-pitch inning and Garcia is at 52.

One run through four innings isn’t bad for Garcia. Actually it’s unbelievable. I would have signed up for three runs in four innings from Garcia and that’s a 6.75 ERA. So, one run in four innings? This feels like watching Cliff Lee pitch for your team in the playoffs, which sadly I have never experienced.

Fifth Inning
Here comes Luke Scott again. Scott usually kills the Yankees and since Upton was in a 3-for-42 slump and then homered, I’m expecting some sort of dagger from Scott here now that he’s 1-for-31.

Garcia falls behind him 3-1, and if Scott sees that “fastball” we could have a tie game here.

A 3-1 slider gets Scott to pop out to A-Rod in foul territory and there’s one down in the inning. A 3-1 pitch from Garcia in April meant an extra-base hit so there’s clearly progress here.

Lobaton goes down looking on a slider for the second out. This game feels too easy. A Freddy Garcia start in 2012 is supposed to be painful and agonizing to watch, but this feels like a Sabathia or Pettitte start. It can’t keep up this way, can it?

Even though Garcia is cruising, this game won’t erase my fear of him starting in Fenway Park again this weekend. Speaking of which, there are four games in three days at Fenway Park. The over/under on hours of baseball is 18, and total runs is 44. I’m going to take the over on both and might even parlay them.

The pesky Will Rhymes singles on a line drive to center field to keep the inning alive, and he’s now 2-for-2 tonight.

Garcia bounces back to strike out Johnson swinging on yet another slider. Garcia has allowed one run on four hits through five innings. Is this real life? Seriously, is this real life? This Garcia start has been so good that I’m too scared to tweet during it because it feels like a perfect game. Yes, four baserunners feels like a perfect game.

Sixth Inning
Garcia is supposed to throw 65 to 70 pitches in this start and he will start the sixth inning at 69 pitches against the top of the order. I’m not sure if he’s batter to batter at this point with Joe Girardi, but you can’t blame Girardi for leaving him in the way he has looked.

Desmond Jennings grounds out on the first pitch (an 87-mph fastball) from Garcia, and there’s one down.

So, remember before when I said how Carols Pena is in the elite class of opposing hitters that scare me? Well, that’s why. Pena hits a 2-1 slider out of the park to tie the game on Garcia’s 74th pitch. Again, you can’t blame Girardi for leaving him, but there certainly are questions as to why Garcia was left in if his maximum pitch count was 70 pitches. And where are the two lefties in the bullpen to face Pena? That’s not me asking these questions of Girardi. That’s just me saying there are potential questions. I’m calm. Everything is fine.

Here comes Girardi to take out Garcia as he signals for the righty, Cody Eppley.

The Yankees would go on to take a 3-2 lead only to blow that lead as well and wind up losing 4-3 after David Robertson couldn’t get a big out and Mark Teixeira couldn’t field a ground ball for their eighth loss in a row at Tropicana Field.

As for Garcia it was obviously his best start of the year. The Chief showed that his thoughts about him lacking arm strength in April were accurate and he finished with the following line: 5.1 IP, 5 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 0 BB, 4 K, 2 HR. He proved that he still has some 2011 left in him and that he can be trusted to fill the void left by Pettitte. Well, maybe “trusted” is too strong of a word. I probably shouldn’t throw a word like that around so carelessly until we see what he does this weekend at Fenway.

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