Ryan Mallett – Keefe To The City

Oct 1, 2015

NFL Week 4 Picks

After surviving Week 2, Week 3 was one for the history books, but now the bar has been set to try to continue to produce equally successful weeks. It’s not an easy job, but someone has to do it.

The good part about your team playing on Thursday Night Football is that you only have to wait four days until the team’s next game. The bad part about your team playing on Thursday Night Football is that you then have to wait 10 days until they play again. But that’s not necessarily bad for the Giants since their early-season Thursday game serves as nearly a bye week, giving them time to rest and prepare for the Bills.

The Giants are in a perfect position to go on a run and take control of the NFC East with Tony Romo and Dez Bryant out for a couple months, the Eagles having no identity and a bad offense with a greatly underachieving DeMarco Murray and the Redskins being the Redskins. After the Week 1 meltdown in Dallas, I figured that loss would eventually mean the Giants would have to battle for a wild-card berth, but the NFC East once again is proving to be a gongshow for another season, and that’s exactly what the Giants need.

Last week was a memorable one. A 13-3 week with the picks that included a Giants win over the Redskins is about as good as it gets when it comes to the always unpredictable NFL. After surviving Week 2, Week 3 was one for the history books, but now the bar has been set to try to continue to produce equally successful weeks. It’s not an easy job, but someone has to do it.

(Home team in caps)

PITTSBURGH +3 over Baltimore
Michael Vick doesn’t really want to play football anymore. He wants to collect a paycheck to practice during the week and then watch Steelers games from the sidelines on Sundays (and sometimes Mondays and a Thursday). It was the same story when he was with the Jets and when he finally had to go into a game, he looked like someone who hadn’t prepared to play an actual snap for the season. But even for as bad as Vick has looked and has been, the Ravens are worse. They are 0-3 for the first time under John Harbaugh, their defense has been embarrassed and their offense has been non-existent. Aside from all of that, you always take the points in Steelers-Ravens games. It’s just the smart thing to do.

Last season, the Ravens won 26-6 and the Steelers won 43-23. In 2013, the Steelers won 19-16 and the Ravens won 22-20. In 2012, the Ravens won 13-10 and the Steelers won 23-20. In 2011, the Ravens won 35-7 and 23-20. In 2010, the Ravens won 17-14 and the Steelers won 13-10. In 2009, the Ravens won 20-17 in overtime and the Steelers won 23-20. In 2008, the Steelers won 23-20 in overtime and 13-9.

Last season was an anomaly, but including last season, in the last 14 meetings between the two teams, 10 of the games have been decided by three points or less and eight of them have been decided by exactly three points. Even without Ben Roethlisberger, you have to take the Steelers at home getting 3.

New York Jets -2 over MIAMI
Last week, I said the following about the Jets.

Now not only are the Jets not going to start the season 1-3, they might be 4-0 heading into their bye and with the Redskins on the schedule in Week 6, they might be 5-0 heading to New England. Nearly five years after we got the 9-2 Jets against the 9-2 Patriots on Monday Night Football, we might get the 5-0 Jets against the 5-0 Patriots this season.

So how did they repay my positivity about them? By losing at home to the Eagles, which screwed up the NFC East even more and hurt the Giants, in a game that included one of the dumbest decisions I have ever seen by Brandon Marshall on an unnecessary lateral that turned into a fumble. It felt like the same old Jets and after that fumble I expected the camera to pan to the sidelines and for Rex Ryan to be standing there.

But Rex isn’t there and Todd Bowles is and it was his first bad game as Jets head coach even if he couldn’t control Marshall’s decision making or Ryan Fitzpatrick’s ineffectiveness. And even thought the Jets looked awful in a home loss, they won’t spiral out of control the way they would have if Rex were still there. That’s partly because of Bowles and partly because the Dolphins are atrocious.

So far the Dolphins barely got past the Redskins (who are 1-2) in Week 1, lost to the Jaguars (who are 1-2 and lost to the Patriots 51-17) in Week 2 and were run out of their own building by the Bills in Week 3. Here’s what I said about the Dolphins in Week 1:

Well, the Dolphins are once again an underachieving and mediocre team, and mediocre might be generous. A week after they couldn’t win a division game at home, actually scratch that … A week after they couldn’t even compete in a division game at home, they’re now going to go across the Atlantic and beat the Jets on a neutral field. OK, sure.

Jacksonville +9 over INDIANAPOLIS
The best thing to happen in Week 3 was the Jaguars getting blown out in New England, so that this line would be made too high, and it is. The Colts are a bad team that celebrated their Week 3 win over the Titans the way they would have likely celebrated their AFC Championship win over the Patriots had they won (or even made it a game). The Jaguars aren’t good, but neither are the Colts, and for the Colts to be giving 9 points to any team after back-to-back losses to open the season and barely pulling out a two-point win in Tennessee. Despite being favorites in their first three games, the Colts have yet to cover, considering they lost two of them, and I’m continuing to sell hard on the Colts.

Houston +7 over ATLANTA
I don’t really think the Falcons are good. That isn’t exactly something normal to say about an undefeated 3-0 team with two road wins already on the season, but like saying goes, “It’s not about who you play, it’s about when you play them.” So far the Falcons got the inept Eagles at home in Week 1, the Giants’ clock management problems in Week 2 and a Tony Romo- and Dez Bryant-less Cowboys team in Week 3. The Falcons deserve credit for winning all three games and for coming from behind down multiple possessions in the last two, but those aren’t exactly impressive wins and even with Julio Jones catching everything thrown within 10 feet of him, the Falcons just aren’t anything special. They might beat the Texans and improve to 4-0, but they aren’t going to do it by blowing them out because that’s not who the Falcons are.

Carolina -3.5 over TAMPA BAY
The Panthers are the most under-the-radar 3-0 team ever. I had to check to make sure they were 3-0 because that’s how little I have heard about them and their undefeated start to the season. Even though their wins are against Jacksonville, Houston and New Orleans, they’re still wins and the Panthers have the luxury of playing in the NFC South where only Atlanta will give them any sort of competition. I might shy away from picking the Panthers if they were being talked about and hyped as much as any other 3-0 team would, but as long as the Panthers continue to go unnoticed, there’s nothing to be worried about with a potential trap line.

New York Giants +5.5 over BUFFALO
The return of Victor Cruz had me dreaming of the possibilities of Odell Beckham Jr. and Cruz being unstoppable since we have never really seen the two play together. (The duo played just one game together last season before Cruz injured his knee.) But after suffering a setback with his calf in practice on Wednesday, Cruz probably won’t play again this week in Buffalo, and if he doesn’t, he will have already missed 25 percent of the season.

On the Bills’ side, Rex Ryan told Mike Francesa on Wednesday that both LeSean McCoy and Sammy Watkins are likely out for the game. That leaves the game pretty much up to the Bills’ defense, which let the Patriots put up 507 yards against them at home, so the aura of Ralph Wilson Stadium being a touch place to play just because the Colts couldn’t do anything isn’t exactly true.

Oakland -3 over CHICAGO
When was the last time the Raiders were a road favorite? LOOK IT UP. This line feels way too low after watching Jimmy Clausen and the Bears punt on all 10 of their possessions against the Seahawks last week. I’m not sure how the Bears are ever going to score with Clausen at quarterback unless Robbie Gould starts drilling 70-yard field goals. But even then, Clausen would have to move the ball to the Bears’ 47 and I’m not sure if that’s possible. After trading Jared Allen, it’s clear the Bears are about to begin a fire sale and it has been suggested that they trade Matt Forte, who is in the last year of his contract and approaching 30. If Forte wasn’t in the last year of his contract, I would advise the Bears to make him inactive for every game for the rest of the season and save his legs for next year, but since he is, they should trade him. Why should the Bears have an elite running back? It’s like a 60-win baseball team having an elite closer. Trade Forte.

WASHINGTON +3.5 over Philadelphia
Kirk Cousins says he couldn’t sleep over his non-touchdown passes to Jordan Reed on Thursday Night Football last week. That’s good because it shows Cousins’ head is in the right place, but it’s not good because he needs his sleep to win this game.

I’m rooting for the Redskins to win because they are less of a threat to the Giants in the NFC East and a Redskins win would give Philadelphia two division losses. I want the NFC East to become a two-team race between the Giants and Cowboys and without Romo and Bryant for a while, the Giants will have the opportunity to take a commanding lead. Will they take advantage of this opportunity? Of course not. But I can dream.

Kansas City +4.5 over CINCINNATI
The old me would see this line, remember that the Chiefs are 1-2 and Ryan Mallett starting over Brian Hoyer in Week 1 from being 0-3, and remember that the Bengals are 3-0 and instantly pick the Bengals. But not the new me. Not the me that has created a “Just Say No to the B’s” campaign. Those B’s are the Bengals, Bears and Browns. So I’m saying no to the Bengals and there isn’t an amount of peer pressure that could get me to change my mind.

SAN DIEGO -7.5 over Cleveland
If you just read my rule about the B’s in the last pick then you already know. However, there is one exception to that rule and that is when Johnny Manziel starts, the Browns aren’t part of it. Johnny Football is once again on the bench, so I’m saying no to the Browns and I hope they lose in a rout.

Green Bay -9.5 over SAN FRANCISCO
Carlos Hyde ran all over the Vikings in Week 1 and had the best week of any running back in the NFL in his debut as the 49ers starter. The next week he got hurt against the Steelers and when he was ready to come back in, he was held out because the score was lopsided. Last week, due to another lopsided score, he was held out for most of the game again. This week, the 49ers are playing the best team and the best offense in the NFC. There’s a good chance we’re headed for another game in which Hyde watches from the sidelines to preserve his health and legs for future games. There are going to be a lot of games like that for the 49ers this season, but the problem is that Hyde is the 49ers offense, so without him they don’t have a chance.

DENVER -7 over Minnesota
The Vikings are 2-1 thanks to two home wins, but I didn’t like what I saw from them in their season opener on the road in San Francisco against a team that has been outscored 90-25 in the last two weeks. I don’t know how I’m supposed to take the Vikings in Denver against Peyton Manning and that defense and feel confident with a 7-point spread. I’m going to have to see Teddy Bridgewater and the Vikings offense a little more away from Minnesota before I start to back the Vikings on the road. (Sorry, Britt. Don’t worry, I like sleeping on the couch.)

ARIZONA -7 over St. Louis
The Cardinals are the real deal. Two years ago, they were a 10-win team that didn’t make the playoffs. Last season, they were a true contender in the NFC until Carson Palmer got hurt and Drew Stanton got hurt and they were left starting Ryan Lindley, who threw for 82 yards, in their playoff game at Carolina. Bruce Arians and the Cardinals deserve better and so far this season they have proven that they are at the top of the NFC with the Packers and are better than their their division rival Seahawks. I’m going to enjoy taking the Cardinals for a touchdown or less for as long as Vegas wants to give away a free pick and free money.

NEW ORLEANS -5 over Dallas
It’s the possibly Drew Brees-less Saints against the Tony Romo-less Cowboys on Sunday Night Football. NBC must be thrilled about the state of these two teams for their primetime game though probably not as thrilled as Brees was when he found out Jimmy Graham was traded to Seattle.

The Superdome Saints are no more. When you lose to Jameis Winston and the Buccaneers in the Superdome, that theory goes away. Instead the Saints are now an 0-3 team with a loss this week away from having their season over with 75 percent of the schedule remaining. If there’s any truth to the idea of a desperate team coming to play and winning a game, this is it. What better way to turn your season around than on national TV in the manic Superdome with Drew Brees returning to the field.

SEATTLE -10 over Detroit
I’m not sure if Jim Caldwell’s job is in trouble with the Lions being winless since I’m not sure how Jim Caldwell was hired to be the Lions head coach to begin with. Maybe that postseason appearance last year is enough to buy Caldwell some time, but that time might be erased in the coming weeks. After the Lions lose in Seattle, they host Arizona, Chicago and Minnesota and then go to Kansas City before their Week 9 bye. That has 1-8, maybe 2-7 at best, written all over it.

Last week: 13-3-0
Season: 29-18-1

Blogs • Giants

Sep 24, 2015

NFL Week 3 Picks

The key to the picks season is surviving Week 2. A 7-9 Week 2 isn’t anything to be excited about, but it’s enough to survive, and set up a very important Week 3.

The Giants have been a losing team for a long time. They’re 0-2 right now. They were 6-10 last season. They were 7-9 in 2013, and at 6-2 in 2012 with a chance to win the NFC East, they finished 3-5. Put all of that together and you have a 16-26 record over the last 42 games over parts of four seasons with obviously no playoff appearances. Four of those 16 wins came against the Redskins as the Giants have gone 12-26 against teams not named the Redskins since Week 9 of 2012.

Tom Coughlin survived the second-half collapse of 2012 because of the Super Bowl XLII win the year before. He survived a losing season in 2013 and again in 2014 because of Super Bowl XLII and XLVI. But after this now lengthy stretch of losing, time is running out on Tom Coughlin and his Giants era, which is in its 12th year. The Giants aren’t going to fire Coughlin in the middle of the season if the losing continues and if the team is unable to compete in the wide-open and horrible NFC East, but this will be the beginning of the end of the Coughlin era if the Giants don’t start winning and change the late-game losing culture they have established.

Luckily for the Giants, at 0-2, they’re facing the one team they have been able to count for wins in recent years: the Redskins.

The key to the picks season is surviving Week 2. A 7-9 Week 2 isn’t anything to be excited about, but it’s enough to survive.

(Home team in caps)

NEW YORK GIANTS -3.5 over Washington
In any other division, at 0-2 with a divisional loss, the Giants would be in serious trouble. But in the NFC East, where the 2-0 Cowboys are without Tony Romo and Dez Bryant and the 0-2 Eagles are a disaster and the 1-1 Redskins are the Redskins, the Giants aren’t in the worst place. Sure, it would be nice if they could finish in the final minutes of the fourth quarter and be 2-0 right now, but the season isn’t over … yet. If they lose at home on Thursday Night Football to the Redskins, then yes, the season is over. Unfortunately, in the NFC East, even at 0-3, the Giants probably aren’t even out of it, but I’m going to pretend they will be.

Pittsburgh -2 over ST. LOUIS
The Steelers are getting Le’Veon Bell back in time to face the vaunted home defense of the Rams. I say “home defense” because when you go to Washington and allow 24 points and lose by 14, it doesn’t matter that you beat the two-time defending NFC champions in the season opener. Along with the Patriots, the Steelers are at the top of the AFC right now and were even before the return of Bell. Now that Bell is back and with Martavis Bryant back in two weeks, the Steelers are only going to get stronger. Even though I could care less about the Steelers, I care about the AFC having at least one or two teams that are somewhat good and could prevent the Patriots from yet another easy walk through the postseason, so that’s why I want, no I need the Steelers to be good.

MINNESOTA -2.5 over San Diego
The Chargers opened the season in San Diego against Detroit. Then they flew to Cincinnati to play the Bengals. Then they flew back to San Diego. Now they are flying back to Minnesota to play the Vikings. That’s a lot of travel in the last nine or 10 days once this game kicks off on Sunday, which will have included going three time zones east, three time zones back west and then two time zones east again in that span.

HOUSTON -6.5 over Tampa Bay
Aside from cutting Charles James in training camp and naming Brian Hoyer the starter over Ryan Mallett, Hard Knocks made me want to like the Texans. But after losing their first two games to the Chiefs and Panthers, it’s getting harder to like the Texans and believe in them. This is it for me and the Texans. They have cost me two picks already this season and if their defense can’t hold a rookie quarterback without his best receiver at full strength then I’m done with the Texans.

NEW YORK JETS -3 over Philadelphia
I originally thought if the Jets didn’t win against the Browns in Week 1 that there would be a real chance they could be 1-3 heading into their Week 4 bye. That’s the danger of trying to predict wins and losses in the NFL before the season. The Jets’ Weeks 2-4 matchups at Indianapolis, against the Philadelphia and at Miami looked like an early-season gauntlet. But in two weeks, the Colts have proven they haven’t improved since last season, the Eagles are an 0-2 mess and the Dolphins are once again all preseason hype. Now not only are the Jets not going to start the season 1-3, they might be 4-0 heading into their bye and with the Redskins on the schedule in Week 6, they might be 5-0 heading to New England. Nearly five years after we got the 9-2 Jets against the 9-2 Patriots on Monday Night Football, we might get the 5-0 Jets against the 5-0 Patriots this season.

CAROLINA -6.5 over New Orleans
I used to believe in the Saints inside the Superdome no matter what the line was. But after losing five home games last season and losing to the Buccaneers at home last week, that theory is officially over. The Saints are a bad team and they aren’t getting any better and it might be getting close to a complete change in New Orleans. The problem is the Saints have been so inconsistent and winning enough to not bottom out and force an overhaul. This season, they’re 0-2. Last season, they were 7-9. In 2013, they were 11-5 and won a playoff game. In 2012, they were 7-9. In 2011, they were 13-3 and won a playoff game. In 2010, they were 11-5 and lost their first playoff game. The Saints have had just enough success to keep their core in tact even if they haven’t been good enough to win it all since winning it all in 2009.

NEW ENGLAND -14 over Jacksonville
The only team I ever feel confident picking to cover or win in New England is the Giants. The Jaguars’ win at home against the Dolphins was nice and they seem to be finally headed in the right direction without a winning season since 2007, but this is a terrible spot for them to be in. The Patriots just went to Buffalo and put up 507 yards on the Bills’ defense and left Bills fans devastated. Now they return home where they have lost like three games in 15 years and are facing a young and inexperienced Jaguars team. The Patriots will be 3-0 heading into their bye week before going to Dallas to face the Tony Romo- and Dez Bryant-less Cowboys and then going to Indianapolis to try to hang 80 on the Colts for Deflategate. The Patriots are going to be 5-0 before their Week 7 game against the Jets and that’s the next time I will have to really think about the Patriots not covering.

BALTIMORE -2.5 over Cincinnati
The Ravens, along with the Saints and Rams destroyed survivor pools last week. I wasn’t expecting the Ravens to go to Oakland where the Bengals had ran the Raiders out of their own building a week before and lose. The Ravens are in unchartered territory under John Harbaugh at 0-2 and have to play the undefeated Bengals this week and then go to Pittsburgh on a short week next week. This is it for the 2015 Ravens this week and to think in January they were blowing two 14-point leads against the Patriots away from playing the Colts in the AFC Championship Game, which basically would have meant they were going to play in the Super Bowl.

Oakland +3.5 over CLEVELAND
After not having “that game” last week, this game is “that game” this week …

Somewhere someone who isn’t a Raiders fan or a Browns fan is going to bet on this game and watch it in its entirety. Thank about that.

Mike Pettine deciding to name Josh McCown the starting quarterback this week after Johnny Manziel led the team to a win last week is the most Browns decision ever. Josh McCown is a 36-year-old journeyman, who has never been good. He isn’t going to lead the Browns to the playoffs this year and unless Pettine knows 100 percent that his job is safe with another losing season and that he can hope Manziel will be the full-time starter next season, this decision makes no sense. Actually, it makes no sense anyway. After sitting behind Brian Hoyer last season and McCown this season, it’s not like he’s exactly learning from some former MVP or an all-time quarterback or even a decent one. Manziel continuing to sit on the bench is stunting his growth and preventing the Browns from moving on and improving. I hope the Browns are embarrassed by the Raiders.

TENNESSEE +3.5 over Indianapolis
I hate the Colts for starting Deflategate and making the last eight months unbearable after they served as a red carpet in the AFC Championship Game for the Patriots to get into the Super Bowl. So it puts a smile on my face to see Andrew Luck with five interceptions in the first two games and a very average roster around him playing that way. Maybe I will eventually have enough confidence in the Colts to pick them, and maybe that eventually is next week at home against the Jaguars, but for now, I’m selling the Colts hard just like everyone else seems to be.

Atlanta -2 over DALLAS
The Falcons in a dome outside of Georgia aren’t exactly the same as the Falcons inside the Georgia Dome, but they’re certainly better than the Cowboys without their quarterback, without their top wide receiver and their all-time tight end suffering from various injuries being so banged up he might not play.

SEATTLE -15 over Chicago
A 15-point line in the NFL is a rare occurrence. We saw it on nearly a weekly basis during the Patriots’ 2007 season, but it’s very, very, very hard to get a two-touchdown line, especially in Week 3. It takes a perfect storm of events to get a line like this, and in this instance, the perfect storm is the Seahawks being 0-2 and returning home for the first time since the NFC Championship Game and the Bears being a bad 0-2 team without their starting quarterback and top wide receiver heading to the hardest place for a road team to win in the NFL. The Seahawks are going to win this game and most likely won’t give up a single point. This line is too low.

Buffalo +3 over MIAMI
The Dolphins are the biggest frauds in the NFL. I’m sick and tired of annually hearing how this is the Dolphins year and this is the season they are going to challenge the Patriots for the AFC East. After squeaking out a win against the Redskins in Week 1, the Dolphins lost to the Jaguars in Week 2, blowing what was the easiest two-week schedule to open the season in the league. I’m now rooting against the Dolphins.

Denver -3.5 over DETROIT
I was worried about Peyton Manning before the season started and his Week 1 performance made me worry even more. Then the first half of his Week 2 performance made me worry even more. But during the second half of the Broncos’ win at Arrowhead, Manning didn’t look like his old self, but he looked like a guy that figured out how to play and win with what’s left of his arm and abilities. If he can work his magic after traveling to Kansas City on a short week to win on Thursday Night Football, he can certainly win in perfect conditions inside Ford Field against an 0-2 and headed nowhere Lions team.

GREEN BAY -7 over Kansas City
The Packers are the best team in the NFC and their come-from-behind and convincing win over the Seahawks in Week 2 made me realize the NFC is likely to run through Lambeau Field this winter. These touchdown-or-less lines for the Packers aren’t going to be around much longer with the way they’re playing, so you better get in on them before they’re gone.

Last week: 7-9-0
Season: 16-15-1

Blogs • Giants

Sep 17, 2015

NFL Week 2 Picks

It’s hard to know what’s real and what’s not when you only have one week of results to go by and that’s what makes Week 2 the hardest week to pick in the season.

There isn’t an overreaction in the world greater than that after Week 1 in the NFL. After Week 1 we are led to believe that Peyton Manning is finished, Marcus Mariota is the best quarterback ever, the Seahawks’ NFC reign is over, Pete Carroll is an idiot … actually, that’s true … the Vikings are the worst team in football, Joe Flacco is the worst quarterback in the league, the Jets are back and it’s incredible that Eli Manning and Tom Coughlin won two Super Bowls … that might be true too.

Week 1 takes everything you think you know about football and takes all the opinions you made in the offseason and momentarily justifies or destroys them. It can completely change how you go about viewing and picking Week 2 and leave you in a deep state of devastation or financially ruined after the early games if you’re not careful. It’s hard to know what’s real and what’s not when you only have one week of results to go by and that’s what makes Week 2 the hardest week to pick in the season.

(Home team in caps)

KANSAS CITY -3 over Denver
Peyton Manning is lucky his defense bailed him out on Sunday against the Ravens, or the Broncos would be headed to Arrowhead at 0-1 and looking at a possible 0-2 start to the season.

The last two games Peyton has played have to be two of his, if not the worst, of his career. The home playoff debacle after a bye week last season was shocking and whatever he was doing in Week 1 against Baltimore was frightening. I don’t know if this is the Peyton we will see from now until he retires, but if it is, it’s going to be hard to back the Broncos this season.

Houston +3 over CAROLINA
Here’s what I said last week about the Texans:

I’m not sure how Bill O’Brien and Rick Smith came to the conclusion that Brian Hoyer should be the Texans’ starting quarterback over Ryan Mallett. To be fair, it’s not like he named Hoyer the starter over a clearly more talented player and the two likely have the same amount of ability. But did they watch Hoyer play for the Browns? If you’re looking for one touchdown, two interceptions and 227 yards then Hoyer is your guy because that’s what he is and because we know what he is, why not start Mallett? At least there is a chance he might be somewhat good or at least better than Hoyer.

Guess who’s the starting quarterback for the Texans this week? Ryan Mallett.

I was a little off on Hoyer’s game since he threw for 236 yards, one touchdown and only one interception, but if I knew that it was inevitable that he would lose his starting job, how could Bill O’Brien not know this? The Texans wasted one of 16 games last week in what was a very winnable home game and a game they lost by 7 despite Hoyer doing his absolute best to lose it. With the Texans’ defense, Mallett doesn’t even have to be great, he just has to be better than Hoyer, and that’s not hard to do.

NEW ORLEANS -10 over Tampa Bay
Ah, the Saints in the Superdome. There are a few things that you can can count on when picking NFL games like always taking the points in NFC East matchups, always taking the points in Steelers-Ravens games and always taking the Saints at home in the Superdome to cover any spread. There might not be any guarantees in gambling, but those are the three things you can actually feel confident about.

Jameis Winston gave Marcus Mariota a headstart on everyone thinking the Buccaneers drafted the wrong guy No. 1 and in the 30 for 30 about the two in 20 years, there is a lot of video from Week 1 of 2015 to sort through. After this week’s loss in New Orleans, the Bucs go to Houston and by then will be 0-3 and the countdown clock until Lovie Smith’s firing will be closing in on zero.

PITTSBURGH -6 over San Francisco
The 49ers will only go as far as Carlos Hyde takes them. I don’t think Colin Kaepernick is very good since he hasn’t been able to adjust to the league after it adjusted to him, making Anquan Boldin and Torrey Smith and Vernon Davis non-factors, which had made the offense revolve around Hyde’s legs. The Steelers had 10 days off and coming off a loss and having their home opener and having the opportunity to prepare to shut down Hyde is a recipe for disaster for the 49ers, whose over/under win total was 6.5. This is going to be one of those 9.5 losses.

MINNESOTA -2.5 over Detroit
When it comes to Week 1 overreactions, the idea that the Vikings might be the worst team in football is at the top of the list. A bad game on the road in San Francisco against a team everyone had left for dead despite being two-plus years removed from the Super Bowl and one-plus year removed from the NFC Championship Game isn’t going to end the Vikings’ season. There’s no way an offense with Teddy Bridgewater, Adrian Peterson, Mike Wallace and Charles Johnson can be as bad as they were in San Francisco, and there’s no way the Vikings defense is going to let someone embarrass them again the way that Carlos Hyde did in his debut as a starting running back.

BUFFALO +1.5 over New England
After the Giants-Falcons game, this is the game I care the most about this week. Rex Ryan and his 1-0 Bills that have everyone talking because they routed the fraud Colts against Bill Belichick and his 1-0 Patriots that have everyone talking because whenever they win a game for the rest of eternity, there’s going to be some report that cheating might have been involved.

The Rex Ryan Bills looked exactly like the Rex Ryan Jets last week, and that’s not such a bad thing for going up against the Patriots because the Rex Ryan Jets had as much success as anyone not named the New York Football Giants against the Patriots in recent years. A Bills win will have Rex running his mouth as well as he ever did in New York and a Patriots loss might finally get some of the talk about the air pressure in footballs, the frequencies on headsets, the taping of other team’s sidelines and all the other rumored cheating ways of the Patriots to potentially fade. I can dream.

Arizona -2.5 over CHICAGO
Here’s what I said last week about the Bears:

This season I have made a pledge to myself to go hard after the Bears. I’m not getting suckered into thinking they can or will be good and I’m not changing my mind on them.

And I know exactly what the Bears are trying to do me right now. They lost a close game 31-23 to the Packers at home (even though they scored a very late touchdown to make it an eight-point game) and they want me to think, “Hey, the Bears nearly covered against the NFC favorites and now they’re home again against a much lesser offense giving points? Why not take the Bears?” In the past I would have fallen for this trap game, picked the Bears and then watched Jay Cutler throw the game away despite having two stud wide receivers (one of them is now with the Jets), a top running back and a great receiving tight end. Not this year. I’m not falling for the Bears this year.

CLEVELAND +2 over Tennessee
When Johnny Manziel entered Sunday’s game against the Jets and immediately threw a touchdown pass to take the lead, the thought of the Johnny Football era taking off at the hands of the Jets made me smile and feel warm inside. But after that play, Manziel looked exactly like the guy we saw last season, who couldn’t win the starting quarterback job over Brian Hoyer, and the Jets went on to blow out the Browns.

No matter what happens in this game, we all lose. If the Titans win, Marcus Mariota is 2-0 and the best quarterback in history. If the Browns win, it’s going to be Johnny Football all day and all night for the next week. I think I would rather hear about Manziel than Mariota, but since I have been a full-time passenger on the Johnny Football bandwagon, a home loss to the Titans, will have me jumping ship for the foreseeable future.

San Diego +3.5 over CINCINNATI
It’s the Battle of Which Team Has Screwed Me Over More Over the Years. I don’t really know who is worse in this situation when it comes to having to back either Philip Rivers or Andy Dalton, but like the Bears, I made a promise to myself to stay away from the Bs this season: the Bears, Bengals and Browns. I have given myself one mulligan for this season, and unfortunately, my wanting Johnny Football to work out led me to use that mulligan this week to pick the Browns. If the Browns win, I retain my Bs mulligan and can use it on a future game, so maybe at some point I will pick the Bengals, but it won’t be today.

St. Louis -4 over WASHINGTON
I was more than scared when the Dolphins were effing around in Washington last week and failing to cover for most of the game against the Redskins. But maybe the Dolphins looking like the Dolphins I feared they might be in 2015 was a blessing in disguise. Sure, everyone who picked them to cover and who picked them in their survivor pools had to sweat out the win, but their seven-point win helped make this week’s line lower against the impressive Rams defense. So thank you, Dolphins for doing just enough to win to make Week 2 easier. I know that why’s you underperformed so greatly and not because you’re once again going to define “average NFL team” this season.

NEW YORK GIANTS -1.5 over Atlanta
Can you have a must-win game in Week 2? That’s a question I have written about the Giants for the now the fifth straight season. After Sunday night’s disaster that left me speechless and wondering if I even wanted to be a part of the 2015 NFL season or if I ever wanted to watch football again, I actually got over Tom Coughlin’s clock management and Eli Manning’s score management fairly fast. Sure, I spun the situation into the fact that the Giants were supposed to lose in Dallas anyway and that they just need to split the season series with the Cowboys, so they can beat them at MetLife in October, but that’s what fans of losing teams do: they make excuses. I don’t want to have to make any excuses this week. The Falcons outside of the Georgia Dome are very much like the Saints outside of the Superdome, and with the Redskins on Thursday Night Football in Week 3, I should be writing in Week 4 about the 2-1 Giants.

Baltimore -6.5 over OAKLAND
The Ravens went to Denver as 5-point underdogs and lost 19-13 despite Joe Flacco throwing for 117 yards, no touchdowns and two interceptions. The Raiders, meanwhile, lost Derek Carr for most of their game against the Bengals and lost 33-13. There’s just no way I can pick the Raiders here after picking them last week and feel even the slightest bit confident that they will cover against the Ravens. There’s no way at all.

Miami -6.5 over JACKSONVILLE
I made the mistake of backing the Jaguars in Week 1 and thinking they might actually turn it around this season. They still might since there are 15 games left, but they also put up nine points at home against the Panthers, and I’m just not ready to continue to have confidence in the Jaguars. I’d much rather back the overhyped and definitely-going-to-underachieve Dolphins.

Dallas +5.5 over PHILADELPHIA
The best-case scenario for this game is that both teams beat the crap out of each and tie. If the Cowboys win, they will be 2-0 and 2-0 in the division. If the Eagles win, they will be 1-1 and so will the Cowboys, and if the Giants win, the whole division (not including the Redskins since they don’t count) will be 1-1. Having everyone be 1-1 is better for the Giants’ playoff chances to have the entire NFC East be clustered. I will be rooting for the Eagles, but knowing these teams and NFC East games as a whole, it will be decided by three or less.

GREEN BAY -3.5 over Seattle
I was in Seattle when these two teams played in the NFC Championship Game and I wanted the Seahawks to win because I thought they posed a bigger threat to the Patriots in the Super Bowl. I was right until Pete Carroll went and ruined the Super Bowl and the entire offseason. Eff, Seattle and eff the 12s. Sunday, I’m a Cheesehead.

New York Jets +7 over INDIANAPOLIS
It’s nice that once again the Jets got a cupcake game in Week 1 and their fans think the Jets are back and the King of New York and all that. It’s even nicer that they have to go on the road to Indianapolis and face the Colts, who were embarrassed last week and will be looking to go out of their way to erase their awful offensive performance in Buffalo. I think the Jets will cover, but it’s more important to me that the Colts win.

Last week: 9-6-1

Blogs • Giants

Sep 10, 2015

NFL Week 1 Picks

I hate the end of summer and post-Labor Day means the days are only going to get shorter and the weather is only going to get colder and soon enough you won’t want to go outside. So here we go. For the next 22 weeks, there’s football.

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I hate the end of summer. I have seasonal depression, or at least I think I have seasonal depression and post-Labor Day means the days are only going to get shorter and the weather is only going to get colder and soon enough you won’t want to go outside. But I love that football is back tonight, the Giants begin their season in three days, the Yankees are headed to the postseason in some form and the Rangers’ season begins in 27 days. I guess there are some positives to fall.

The beginning of the football season gives every team and every fan a chance to believe in their team and in moments like this happening (that’s me in Boston after the Giants beat the Patriots in Super Bowl XLII. I might have had a few beers). That night I drank in celebration at a bar in Faneuil Hall in the heart of Boston watching the highlights of the game over and over and over and over until the bar kicked us out.

The next morning I woke up without any traces of a hangover and walked out onto Hanover Street, which looked like the opening scenes of Vanilla Sky or I Am Legend. There was hardly any people around and the handful of people I did see had a look of complete devastation across their face. I couldn’t have been happier. That’s what football can do.

I haven’t liked football for a while. The last time I enjoyed football was the second before Russell Wilson threw a pass intended for Ricardo Lockette that was intercepted by Malcolm Butler. Actually, the last time I liked football was the second before Pete Carroll decided to throw the ball on the goal line with the Super Bowl at stake and the best running back in the league on his team. The second before Carroll opened his mouth and suggested that play or agreed to that play was the last time I liked football.

Since that second, the Patriots went on to win the Super Bowl, ending a nine-season drought without a championship, Tom Brady became a four-time Super Bowl champion, Boston sports fans argued that Marshawn Lynch might have not gotten in the end zone from the 1, Darrelle Revis became a champion and the worst thing in the history of sports happened: Deflategate. If Carroll gives the ball to Lynch there, the Seahawks win the Super Bowl, the Patriots are once again losers on the biggest stage, Jermaine Kearse’s catch unseats David Tyree’s catch as the most improbable Super Bowl catch of all time and Deflategate doesn’t spiral out of control because no one cares if a non-championship team may or may not have altered the footballs. But none of that happened and instead for nearly eight months at one point of every day I saw or heard the word “Deflategate” some place.

I was in Seattle for the NFC Championship Game and I saw about two seconds of the AFC Championship Game. I had heard the score and didn’t need to witness the Patriots embarrassing the Colts a week after the Ravens couldn’t close them out. Later that night in the hotel room, my girlfriend showed me a tweet that the Patriots supposedly played with underinflated footballs. My first thought was, “I don’t even know what that means” since I simply didn’t understand if that was good or bad or how that could be an issue. I thought it was just some nonsensical report that would either be laughed at or forgotten. I went to sleep on Jan. 18 not knowing about how footballs are handled before each game, what the proper PSI levels are for footballs or that quarterbacks got to use their own personal footballs in a game. When I woke up on Jan. 19, that nonsensical report hadn’t been forgotten.

I still can’t believe that for nearly all of the 2015 calendar year (minus the 17 days before the AFC Championship Game), Deflategate has pretty much controlled the headlines. The idea that people could spend so much time talking about the air pressure in footballs, reading every piece of information from the investigation and suspension and appeal and listening to sports radio recycle the same mind-blowing opinions on the topic is actually insane. Trying to understand how this much time, attention, money and resources were used on trying to figure out how footballs were lacking the necessary air is like trying to understand why Joe Girardi will use Dellin Betances and Andrew Miller in a game the Yankees are winning by five runs, but not in a game they’re losing by one run or why How to Make it in America was cancelled after two seasons or trying to grasp something as complex as the universe. Deflategate makes my head hurt to think about.

Unfortunately, Deflategate will never go away. The word will always follow Tom Brady, Bill Belichick and the Patriots around just like Spygate has. The Brady/Belichick Patriots will always be the victims of a witch hunt to Patriots fans and cheaters to non-Patriots fans. Even though the D-word is here to say just like the S-word has stayed alive for the last eight years, on Thursday night we will all finally have something else to talk about: a real-life football game. That is, until the Patriots beat the Steelers, like they always do at Gillette Stadium. Then, we will all have to hear about how they cheated to win the season opener too.

Tonight begins a new NFL season and with that comes a new picks season and another 263 games to pick. Last season, I finished 129-130-4, losing the final game of the season, the Super Bowl, on the play that should have gotten Pete Carroll fired. That play motivated me to work hard this offseason and get in the best shape of my life and make sure this picks season doesn’t end the way the last one did.

So here we go. For the next 22 weeks, there’s football.

(Home team in caps)

NEW ENGLAND -7 over Pittsburgh
As a Giants fan, I have to question the Patriots’ so-called cheating tactics. Either they lost on purpose a few times to make it seem like they weren’t cheating the way you might get a few questions wrong on a test on purpose to not make it obvious. Or they are just the worst cheaters of all time.

If the Patriots were videotaping signal givers and stealing playbooks and breaking into hotel rooms for information, did they forget to do these things for some of the biggest games? After their Super Bowl win in 2001, they missed the playoffs in 2002. They won the Super Bowl in 2003 and 2004, but then they lost to Broncos in the playoffs in 2005, blew a 21-6 halftime lead to the Colts in the 2006 AFC Championship Game, blew the perfect season and lost Super Bowl XLII to the Giants, got run out of Gillette by the Ravens in 2010, were embarrassed by the Jets at home in 2011, lost against to the Giants in Super Bowl XLVI, were shut down by the Ravens in 2012 and got dominated by the Broncos in 2013 before winning the Super Bowl this year.

Like I said, the Patriots were either losing on purpose to keep things balanced or they just aren’t very good cheaters given all of the information they supposedly had, taped and stole. Or maybe they just weren’t doing anything that every other team was already doing? No, it can’t be that.

Green Bay -7 over CHICAGO
This season I have made a pledge to myself to go hard after the Bears. I’m not getting suckered into thinking they can or will be good and I’m not changing my mind on them. I don’t care if they start the season 5-0 or or 7-0 or go 10-0 or complete the perfect season. If they do any of those things, good for them, but I’m not changing my mind on the Bears.

HOUSTON -1 over Kansas City
I’m not sure how Bill O’Brien and Rick Smith came to the conclusion that Brian Hoyer should be the Texans’ starting quarterback over Ryan Mallett. To be fair, it’s not like he named Hoyer the starter over a clearly more talented player and the two likely have the same amount of ability. But did they watch Hoyer play for the Browns? If you’re looking for one touchdown, two interceptions and 227 yards then Hoyer is your guy because that’s what he is and because we know what he is, why not start Mallett? At least there is a chance he might be somewhat good or at least better than Hoyer.

NEW YORK JETS -3 over Cleveland
The Jets always seem to get a cupcake game in Week 1 even if there is supposedly no such thing in the NFL. Last season, the Jets opened at home against the Raiders. The year before they opened at home against the Buccaneers. The year before that they opened at home against the Bills. It’s like they are playing the equivalent of Alcorn State, Tennessee-Martin and Arkansas State in Week 1. The Jets seem to always win in Week 1 because they’re at home against a weak opponent, which is once again the case this season, and then the Jets are 1-0 and their fans start mapping out their route to a postseason berth and before you know it they’re 1-3 and trying to keep their season alive.

After this game, the Jets follow with at Indianapolis, home against Philadelphia and at Miami before their Week 5 bye. Todd Bowles better get his first win as Jets head coach against the Browns or he might not be getting it until Oct. 18 and Week 6 against Washington. That’s a long ways away and there’s a lot of time between now and then for Jets fans to buy billboards and fly planes over practice suggesting he be fired.

BUFFALO +3 over Indianapolis
I wouldn’t mind seeing the Bills do well and have a winning season and make the playoffs. The only problem with that is their quarterback is Tyrod Taylor. His backup is Matt Cassell. His back up is EJ Manuel. That’s a big problem to have, but so is not having a run defense, which the Colts still don’t have.

Miami -4 over WASHINGTON
This is the official survivor pool Week 1 pick for just about everyone. In a week in which there are many even-matched and coin-flip games, you can always count on the Redskins to give you a much-needed win to stay alive.

For the last few years, we have been hearing about how the Dolphins will challenge the Patriots in the AFC East and each time they have failed. This year, the Dolphins are supposed to be even better and once again challenge the Patriots and reach the postseason for the first time since 2008. If the Dolphins are as good and reliable as they are being hyped up to be then this line is incredibly low. Even if the Dolphins are an average team, this line is too low. Even if the Dolphins are in the bottom third or bottom fourth of teams in the league, this is line is still too low. That’s how bad the 2015 Redskins are.

JACKSONVILLE +3.5 over Carolina
The Game of the Week. Somewhere someone who isn’t a Jaguars fan or a Panthers fan is going to bet on this game and watch it in its entirety. Thank about that.

Seattle -4.5 over ST. LOUIS
The Seahawks and I are not on good terms. After I became an honorary Seahawks fan and a 12 for the Super Bowl they went on to blow a 10-point lead and blow the game to ruin my Super Bowl Sunday and the days that have followed since. I don’t know if I’ll ever be able to forgive them for the loss and I absolutely will never forgive Pete Carroll for his play call. But if the Seahawks (and Pete Carroll isn’t included in this) are going to try to win me back it’s going to be by consistently covering spreads week in and week out. Here’s their first chance at redemption.

ARIZONA -3 over New Orleans
We all know what happens when you take the Saints out of the Superdome. Now take them out of the Superdome without Jimmy Graham.

SAN DIEGO -3 over Detroit
These two teams are the same to me and this is the hardest game of the week to pick. I did trade Matthew Stafford for Eli Manning in fantasy football, so I have to root heavily against Stafford this season.

TAMPA BAY -3 over Tennessee
Jameis Winston vs. Marcus Mariota in Week 1. I’m surprised this hasn’t been sold as the “Peyton Manning vs. Tom Brady of the future”. If it were, Winston would be Manning would weapons like Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson and Mariota would be Brady with Kendall Wright and Harry Douglas to throw to. I’m thankful that the NFL Sunday Ticket is available to everyone this year, so that I don’t have to be forced to have the NFL Red Zone get stuck on this game since the only thing I would need or any non-Bucs and non-Titans fan would need from this game is the final score.

OAKLAND +3.5 over Cincinnati
I could care less about the NFL preseason. It’s baseball season until the Yankees either win the World Series or are eliminated and even if you don’t like baseball, there has to be something better to do with your time than watch meaningless preseason football games. The only crazier people in the world than those who watch preseason games are those who attend them. It’s not like spring training where you’re likely getting away from cold weather and enjoying the sun and watching a product that resembles what you see for 162 games in the summer.

The only thing I look for in preseason are finding out which key Giants were injured since it’s inevitable and videos of Andy Dalton throwing interceptions. And there’s only one thing more entertaining than Andy Dalton preseason interceptions and that’s Andy Dalton regular-season interceptions and once again there will be a lot of them.

DENVER -5 over Baltimore
Since I don’t watch preseason football, the last time I watched Peyton Manning play he was throwing wobbly passes as if he were trying to make a Nerf ball without seams spiral and the passes weren’t going to anyone. He finished that home playoff loss against the Colts at 26-of-46 for 211 yards and a touchdown despite coming off a bye, which momentarily made everyone think the Colts had a chance against the Patriots before they were blown out.

I have no idea what Manning will look like this season if he could have looked so bad against a bad defense with a trip to the AFC Championship Game on the line. I don’t think he would have come back if he were going to continue to play like that, so for now, I’m trusting that a healthier, yet older, Peyton Manning came back because he would be good enough to cover spreads once again.

New York Giants +6 over DALLAS
I’m overly confident in the Giants right now. I’m talking high levels of irrational confidence about a team that has gone 13-19 over the last two seasons and hasn’t made the playoffs in the the last three seasons. That could all change in one minute on Sunday night or even one play if Eli Manning opens the season with a first-play interception the way he did against the Cowboys in Week 1 on Sunday Night Football two years ago.

What scares me the most about the 2015 Giants isn’t the absurd amount of preseason injuries for the third straight year or the health of Victor Cruz or the absences of Jason Pierre-Paul or the offensive line or the secondary. What scares me the most is what Prince Amukamara said about this game by calling it a “must-win.”

“I could see everyone’s [butt] getting tight, everyone feeling like they are on the hot seat. You definitely don’t want that feeling around. It’s a bad disease.

“I think that can break the team’s morale, especially with the guys that have already been here and have experienced 0-1, than 0-2 and 0-6 (in 2013). It’s just a bad taste in your mouth. And with this organization, which wants to win now and always has a sense of urgency.”

The idea that a Week 1 loss could cause the team’s butts to “get tight” and “break the team’s morale” isn’t exactly reassuring for the season if they do lose to the Cowboys. Since Amukamara basically called this game the Super Bowl following the most uninspiring preseason from the Giants maybe ever, I’m not scared about this game, I’m petrified.

ATLANTA +3 over Philadelphia
Everywhere I turn I see the Eagles being picked to win the NFC East and be a Super Bowl contender. Is Sam Bradford not the Eagles’ starting quarterback? Has he not missed the last 23 regular-season games? Was the last time he played in an NFL game not Oct. 20, 2013?

In five seasons, Bradford has played 16 games twice and has played in 49 of a possible 80 games (61 percent). If Bradford were to get hurt and miss time, which obviously is a real possibility, then the Eagles would turn to Mark Sanchez once again. If you forgot, the Eagles were 7-2 last season and with Sanchez as the starting quarterback, they went on to miss the playoffs.

The Phillies are fighting to not be the worst team in baseball, the Flyers are horrible and the 76ers haven’t been good since Allen Iverson played for them. If the Eagles aren’t good, the Philadelphia sports landscape will be full of bad teams, which is more incentive to pick against the Eagles.

Minnesota -2.5 over SAN FRANCISCO
I have no idea when I’m going to sleep in the next five days. The Yankees have a four-game series against the Blue Jays beginning on Thursday. The NFL season opens on Thursday. The first NFL Sunday is this Sunday and the Giants play at 8:30 p.m. There is the Week 1 Monday Night Football doubleheader with the second game (this game) starting at 10:15 p.m. Normally this is like Raiders-Chargers and I could watch it while falling asleep, but my girlfriend is a Vikings fan, so I will be awake and invested in this game. Since I will be watching intently with a crazed Vikings fan next to me, I have to go with the Vikings here otherwise the next time I will be able to get a good night’s sleep won’t be as early as Tuesday.

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Blogs • Giants

Sep 25, 2014

NFL Week 4 Picks

Last week was a bounce-back week for the picks, but this week needs to better in order to climb out of the early-season hole.

Thursday is a gongshow. It’s Derek Jeter’s final home game ever at Yankee Stadium and the Giants are playing the Redskins in a must-win game to save their season, which means the DVR is already going to need to be ready for a Game 7-like performance. And that’s before I factor in my girlfriend trying to work Grey’s Anatomy and Scandal into the mix.

7:00: Derek Jeter’s final home game on YES
8:25: Grey’s Anatomy on ABC
8:30: Giants at Redskins on CBS
9:00: Scandal on ABC

Obviously we have a problem here. The final game at the Stadium for Number 2 and the Giants playing basically a playoff game in Week 4 should take precedence over the 11th season of Meredith Grey and whatever insane (actually insane) plot Olivia Pope is going to be a part of. However, I don’t know how to cook, or at least cook well, and my girlfriend is very good at it. As much fun as eating pizza sounds every night for the foreseeable future, I do want some actual nutrition in my diet, so I’m going to have to figure something out to make sure Meredith and Olivia make the cut.

It sucks having the Giants play on a short week in an important game just four days after their first win of the season. And it sucks even more that because of Jeter’s final game, I won’t get to enjoy the Giants (if you can really call watching Giants football “enjoyment”) for another 10 days when they play the Falcons. But it won’t suck if they win in Washington, improve to 2-2 with a 10-day break and get my picks started off with a win in Week 4.

(Home team in caps)

New York Giants +3.5 over WASHINGTON
The road team is 0-2 on Thursday Night Football this year. Last year the road team went 6-9 on Thursday Night Football. In other words, it’s really hard to play on Sunday and then have three fake days of practice and preparation and then travel and win a game. Luckily for the Giants, their trip to Washington isn’t that far and if they have to travel to somewhere that isn’t Philadelphia, Washington is a great second choice.

To non-Giants and Redskins fans, this game probably appears as a Thursday Night mess the way the Falcons-Buccaneers game was last week, but there is a lot at stake in this game. As I told my friend Ray, one team is going to enter a 10-day break at 2-2 with control of their season and other team is going to be 1-3 and will have unsuccessfully made it to October with playoff aspirations. Sure, the season will only be 25 percent over for the Giants and Redskins after Thursday night’s game, but look at the schedules for both teams and then tell me that 1-3 isn’t the same as calling them mathematically eliminated on Sept. 25.

After watching the latest edition of the Kirk Cousins experiment in Washington, I wish RGIII hadn’t dislocated his ankle and would be starting this game. Led by Cousins, the Redskins gave away a game in Philadelphia on Sunday and went punch for punch with the best offensive team in the NFC and now Cousins can either begin his campaign to unseat RGIII as the franchise quarterback in Washington or he can dig the Redskins’ hole a little deeper and make sure the Jay Gruden era continues the way the Mike Shanahan era ended.

This is a must-win game for both teams and with the Giants’ season on the line on Sept. 25, the Yankees having been eliminated from postseason contention on Wednesday and the Rangers not starting for another 14 days, I feel like Mitch’s co-worker in the copy room trying to join the fraternity in Old School: “You listen to me. I need this, OK?”

OAKLAND +4 over Miami
I want to believe in the Dolphins because a good Dolphins team means a better chance the Patriots or Jets don’t win the AFC East, but after beating the Patriots in Week 1, the Dolphins have scored 25 points over their last two games and Ryan Tannehill has been just blah. He hasn’t thrown for more than 241 yards in any of his three games and last week at home he completed just 48.8 percent of his passes in a loss to the Chiefs. He hasn’t progressed or showed signs of growing as a quarterback the way you would like a quarterback to start to in his third season.

Oddly enough, the Raiders, who haven’t won a game on the East Coast since 2009, have lost by five and seven points in their two road games against the Jets and Patriots. They have scored even less than the Dolphins (37 points in three games), but they have … well they have … umm … they … OK, fine I don’t have anything good to say about the Raiders or anything positive to try to justify picking them to cover. I guess they did make Tom Brady look as human as any team has in recent years and nearly brought the Patriots to overtime. Other than that, I have nothing. They’re really bad. Let’s move on before I switch this pick.

CHICAGO +1.5 over Green Bay
The Packers aren’t good. They’re just not. But because they have Aaron Rodgers, they are made to be better than they are and I’m sick and tired of hearing about Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. Nothing is ever his fault. It’s either his offensive line’s fault or his receivers’ fault and of course it wasn’t his fault when the Packers put up seven points in a dome in Detroit last week.

So far this season, the Packers were routed in Seattle, needed to overcome a 21-0 deficit and survive a controversial timeout call to beat the Jets at home and had that seven-point performance against the Lions. Get out on the Packers while you still can.

Buffalo +3 over HOUSTON
For anyone who watched Ryan Fitzpatrick play quarterback for the Texans on Sunday, how the eff do the Texans have one win let alone two? I guess when he has Arian Foster to hand the ball off to like he did in Weeks 1 and 2 when he only attempted 22 and 19 passes respectively his job is a little easier than when he is asked to throw the ball 34 times like he did against the Giants, resulting in three interceptions.

It hasn’t even been three years since Fitzpatrick signed a six-year, $59 million contract with the Bills during the 2011 season when his stock was the highest and he was shifting power in fantasy leagues across the country, but it feels like that was 30 years ago with the way his career has gone since, bouncing around from Buffalo to Tennessee and now to Houston. With Houston playing Buffalo, Dallas, Indianapolis and Pittsburgh in their next four games, there’s a good chance Ryan Mallett becomes the quarterback of the Texans around Week 8.

INDIANAPOLIS -7.5 over Tennessee
The 2014 Colts are going to look back on the season and thank the Jaguars for propelling them to a great season in Week 3 by giving them their first win, building their confidence and getting back on track after two devastating losses to start the season. And after thanking the Jaguars, the Colts are going to thank the Titans for continuing the Colts’ surge and keeping them on track in Week 4.

Carolina +3.5 over BALTIMORE
After Roger Goodell’s press conference last Friday, I thought we would have to wait a long time for a worse press conference from a high-ranking major sports executive and even then we might never see one. But three days later, Ravens owner Steve Bisciotti decided he would take a run at the title by holding his own press conference and just jumping right into questions in an attempt to rebut the ESPN Outside The Lines piece that ripped apart the Ravens’ handling of the Ray Rice situation and made them out to be liars. Luckily, on this site, I don’t have anyone who can suspend me for calling someone else a liar, so I will gladly call Bisciotti a liar because if you have ever asked anyone a question knowing as a fact they are lying well that’s exactly how Bisciotti acted on Monday.

Bisciotti didn’t come across as someone who started his own business out of his basement, eventually making him a billionaire, and he didn’t speak like someone who is worth a reported $1.5 billion. Bisciotti stuttered and mumbled and “umm’d” and “uhh’d” his way through a painful question-answering session in which he frequently told reporters that his answer to their question was “in the statement” referring to a nine-page statement handed out minutes before the press conference began. As an entrepreneur, who has obviously made great decisions and who could spend $50,000 a day for the next 50 years and still have $587.5 million left, why would you think it would be a good idea to hand out a lengthy statement full of answers minutes before beginning a press conference and then getting testy that people are asking questions that have been answered in the statement?

Detroit -2 over NEW YORK JETS
We are so, so, so, so, so close to hearing Michael Vick chants at MetLife Stadium and if the first half of this game gets away from the Jets, we could very well see the end of Geno Smith’s career as a starting quarterback. That might seem unfair considering he is only in his second season in the league, but Rex Ryan is coaching for his job in 2015 and his job is solely tied to wins and losses and if Geno can’t get him wins, he is going to turn to someone who might be able to.

Rex isn’t with the Jets to grow with Geno and build the franchise since Geno isn’t his quarterback and he isn’t John Idzik’s guy. He is leftover from the previous regime and Idzik has obviously wanted him gone and his own coach brought in since he arrived in New York. If the Jets have a losing season, Idzik will get that chance. If Rex plays Vick and Vick wins then Rex saves his job and creates a problem for Idzik since at 34, Vick isn’t the quarterback of the future for the Jets, and if Geno isn’t playing, he certainly isn’t the quarterback of the future either.

The Jets are on 1-yard line of having a five-alarm dilemma on their hands and if you watched the Bears’ receivers abuse the Jets’ secondary at will on Monday night then it looks like Calvin Johnson and company could be the ones to get Michael Vick more than one snap a game.

PITTSBURGH -7.5 over Tampa Bay
Everything I said about the Steelers last week was thrown out the window after they went into Carolina and embarrassed the Panthers on Sunday Night Football. But everything I said about the Buccaneers was correct.

The Tampa Bay bandwagon has been pulled out of service like the New York subway cars with bed bugs and after losing at home to a Rams team quarterbacked by Austin Davis, I think it’s been derailed for the season.

Maybe this is a trap pick since everyone will be on the Steelers already because they are a national team and then they will be on them extra because the Buccaneers gave up 56 points last week, but if it’s a trap, I’m falling for it.

SAN DIEGO -13.5 over Jacksonville
The Jaguars are 0-3 this year and have lost by 17, 31 and 27, so on average they lose by 25. Last season they went 4-12 and lost by an average of 18.5. So if you think the Jaguars are going to lose, which they are, then there’s a very good chance they lose by two touchdowns since 19 of their last 29 losses have come by at least 14 points and that’s before you factor in that they will be flying across the country to face a Chargers team that flew across the country and beat the 2-0 and emotionally-high Bills last week and knocked off the defending Super Bowl champions the week before. Good luck to every person who will be teasing this game and also selecting it in their elimination pool.

Philadelphia +5 over SAN FRANCISCO
Like, the Packers, the 49ers just aren’t that good. For the last three regular seasons you could have called them the best team in the NFL and no one would have really taken exception with it. But now the 49ers are no longer one of the league’s elite teams. They are a good team, and not a great team, even though I wish they would be a great team this week and beat up on the Eagles, it’s not going to happen.

MINNESOTA +3 over Atlanta
I’m rooting for the Vikings to win this game because my girlfriend is a Vikings fan and Sunday won’t be fun for me if I’m sitting next to her rooting against her team that was destroyed by Adrian Peterson’s personal choices. Maybe now that Teddy Bridgewater is playing, the Vikings will throw downfield, which is something Matt Cassel couldn’t do and has never been able to do. When you have Cordarrelle Patterson on your team, you should probably use him.

New Orleans -3 over DALLAS
This pick goes against everything I know and say about the Outside the Superdome Saints, but AT&T Stadium is basically a dome and the Saints have won their last two games there. I trust this pick as much as I trust the Outside the Superdome Saints, but I still trust them more than the Cowboys.

KANSAS CITY +3.5 over New England
Millions of dollars in elimination pools were saved when Derek Carr threw a game-ending interception against the Patriots and millions of dollars in teasers were lost when Tom Brady threw for only 234 yards, one touchdown and forced the Patriots to settle for three field goals against the Raiders. So far this season, the Patriots allowed 33 points to the scoring-challenged Dolphins in a loss, beat up on the Vikings immediately following Adrian Peterson’s suspension, which left the Vikings without a game plan and then had to hang on and have a rookie quarterback in his third career game make an ill-advised throw at the Patriots’ 12 in the final minute to win.

I have long waited for the Patriots to become just another team and even though they haven’t won a Super Bowl in what will be 10 years this season, they have still appeared in two over that time and made another three AFC Championship Games. But the dynasty is finally slowing down and coming to an end. Brady’s protection isn’t what it once was when he could stand like a statue for what seemed like a minute in the pocket, the team has failed to give him proven receivers even though the league has changed its rule to favor offense and overall, he looks like the quarterback who became a starter starting in 2001 and not the one who took over the game starting in 2007.

Last week: 9-7-0
Season: 21-27-0

Tag: Ryan Mallett

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