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Tag: Russell Martin

Blogs • Yankees

Sep 24, 2015

The AL East Is Over

The Yankees needed to win two out of three in Toronto to have a chance at the division, but they didn’t and now the race for the division is over. The Yankees are going to be a wild-card team.

Alex Rodriguez

Wednesday and Thursday night felt like playoff games. The Yankees had two games remaining against the Blue Jays with a 3.5-game deficit in the AL East with 13 games left in the season. Both games were must-win games for the Yankees when it came to winning the division with Tuesday being Game 6 of a playoff series they were trailing 3-2 in and Wednesday being Game 7 if they were to win on Tuesday. Lose either game and the AL East would be over.

The Yankees won on Tuesday after blowing a 2-0 lead and a 3-2 lead thanks to a Greg Bird three-run home run in the 10th inning. Joe Girardi used Justin Wilson (seven pitches), Dellin Betances (20 pitches) and Andrew Miller (42 pitches) to pitch the last four innings after Luis Severino gave the team an impressive six-inning, two-run effort, setting the stage for an AL East Game 7 on Wednesday night.

I didn’t want Ivan Nova to pitch Wednesday’s game, but there wasn’t another option. After Nova’s return sent Adam Warren to the bullpen, Nova’s incompetence sent Warren back to the rotation, so he wasn’t an option for the game, and with Masahiro Tanaka nursing a hamstring injury and Nathan Eovaldi being shut down, Nova won the start by default. But like that John Sterling saying goes, 11 days after Nova couldn’t get through two innings against the Blue Jays, there he was putting up zero after zero against them in Toronto with the chance to win the division over the final two weeks of the season.

With two out and no one on in the sixth, Nova’s 110th pitch of the night was a ball and Russell Martin went to first on a six-pitch walk. I told my girlfriend, “That’s it for him,” and sure enough, YES panned to Joe Girardi walking up the dugout steps. Girardi went to the mound and took the ball from Nova, who looked as good as he did in Game 1 (but kind of Game 2) of the 2011 ALDS against the Tigers, and then Girardi ruined the game.

First, Girardi gave the ball to James Pazos, who has faced 14 Major League batters in his career, to face the left-handed hitting Ryan Goins. On an 0-2 pitch, Goins ripped a line-drive single to center and Martin ran to third. After four pitches, Pazos was pulled.

Next, Girardi went to Caleb Cotham, the 27-year-old rookie, who has allowed 11 hits (two home runs) and five earned runs in eight career Major League innings, to face Yankee killer Kevin Pillar. On the first pitch, Pillar singled up the middle, Martin scored to give the Blue Jays a 1-0 lead and Goins went to second. Cotham stayed in to face the Blue Jays’ No. 9 hitter Ezequiel Carrera and he walked him on six pitches. He finally got out of the inning when he got Ben Revere to fly out to left on a 2-0 pitch though if a lesser defender than Brett Gardner had been out there, it might have been a bases-clearing double or triple.

The Yankees were unable to score in the top of the seventh, despite having two on and two out for Dustin Ackley, who hit a line drive right to Pillar in center. The Yankees had still been held scoreless and trailed 1-0, but Marcus Stroman’s pitch count was at 95 and the Blue Jays would have to turn the game over to the their shaky pen and the one flaw of their team, which had blown the game night before and had blown a three-run lead to the Yankees in Toronto in August.

Due up for the Blue Jays in the seventh were AL MVP Josh Donaldson, Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion. Three right-handed hitters and the heart of the best order in the entire league. In an ideal world, which reliever would make the most sense to face them? Betances, obviously. But unfortunately, we don’t live in an ideal world. We live in Girardi’s world where relievers have set innings and because Miller was unavailable, Betances was the closer for the night and ninth inning was his and maybe an out in the eighth inning. But not the seventh inning. Not the inning that made the most sense for the best right-handed reliever in the world to face three of the best right-handed hitters in the world in a row. Instead of Betances, Girardi brought in Andrew Bailey, who has thrown five innings in the Major Leagues since July 12, 2013. In the last 26-plus months, Bailey has faced 22 hitters in the majors, yet here he was being asked to hold a one-run deficit against the best 2-3-4 in the majors.

Donaldson crushed a 1-1 pitch to left field for his 40th double of the season to lead off the inning before Bailey got Bautista to ground out for the first out of the eighth. With Donaldson on third and one out, I thought it made the most sense to intentionally walk Encarnacion and then bring in Wilson to face Justin Smoak, which would force Smoak to turn around and hit from the right side. I thought Girardi was on the same page as me when he called for the intentional walk of Encarnacion, but then he left Bailey in.

The move worked out momentarily as Bailey struck out Smoak with Encarncion stealing second on the swinging third strike. Two on and two out for Russell Martin, the former Yankees catcher, who they let leave after the 2012 season because they felt Francisco Cervelli could be their catcher of the future, and who has played in the postseason every year (and will again this year) since leaving the Yankees, while they haven’t played in it once since he left. Martin fell behind 1-2, but after working the count to 2-2, he got a 94-mph fastball from Bailey right down the middle and he turned it around and ended the Yankees’ division hopes in one swing.

Outside of the All-Star break, the 2015 Yankees have been together and playing together since mid-February, more than seven months ago. And after those more than seven months that included the six-week spring training and now 151 regular-season games, it was James Pazos, Caleb Cotham and Andrew Bailey, who have now pitched a combined 17 innings for the Yankees, that decided their 2015 postseason fate.

How could Girardi let those three pitchers decide the biggest game of the season? According to what Girardi told reporters after the game, he was planning to use Justin Wilson in the eighth and Dellin Betances in the ninth with Andrew Miller unavailable. But how is it possible that Girardi managed for a situation that never presented itself and never actually existed in the biggest game of the season? How is that he was managing ahead in a tie game and then a game the team was trailing in? How could he play for the next inning with the division hanging in the balance in the inning right in front of him?

Maybe I shouldn’t care that the Yankees aren’t going to win the East and won’t go straight into the ALDS. Girardi and Brian Cashman clearly don’t. Girardi made that clear with his pitching moves on Wednesday, and Cashman made it clear the other day when he said he didn’t care how the Yankees got into the playoffs, but just that they got in. It was a fitting comment from the general manager of a team that made no trade deadline moves other than to acquire Dustin Ackley and whose team blew an eight-game lead since the deadline. It’s hard to blame Cashman for saying, at this point, that he is content with a wild-card berth since Cashman saying he would be disappointed if the team didn’t win the East would be him saying he’s disappointed in himself after the Yankees gave away their division lead in less two weeks in August. So of course he acted as though the wild-card berth is just as good as winning the division.

The wild-card berth is just as good as winning the division if you actually win the wild-card game. Right now, the Yankees would play the Astros in the one-game playoff, but the Twins and Angels are both within 1.5 games of the Astros, so the Yankees’ opponent is anything but finalized. The best-case scenario for the Yankees if they’re able to hold on to their four-game lead for the first wild-card spot is that those three teams have to go to Game 162 or longer to figure out who the second wild-card team is, so that they can’t set up their best starter to face the Yankees.

Over the next two weeks, outside of actually clinching, the Yankees’ top priority will be to give Tanaka as much rest as possible while also keeping him sharp and lining him up to start on Tuesday, Oct. 6 at the Stadium. The Yankees aren’t catching the Blue Jays now and the focus needs to be on preparation for 12 days from now. Some people might hold on to the pipe dream that the Yankees could overcome a 3.5-game deficit in 11 games to win the East and go straight through to the ALDS, but it’s not happening.

The Yankees needed to win two out of three in Toronto to have a chance at the division and with Girardi managing Wednesday night’s game as if it were some throwaway game with a postseason berth already clinched, the race for the division is over. The Yankees are going to the one-game playoff.

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Blogs • Monday Mentions • Yankees

Aug 10, 2015

Monday Mentions: The Worst Yankees Weekend

The Blue Jays have gone from eight games back in the AL East to 1 1/2 games back in 12 days and the Yankees’ postseason chances are fading the same way they did the last two years.

New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays

I want to pretend that I didn’t spend all of Sunday night wondering if the Blue Jays are going to prevent me from watching the Yankees in the postseason. I want to pretend that the Yankees’ unwillingness to trade for David Price isn’t going to be difference between going straight to the ALDS or having to worry about winning a one-game wild-card playoff. I want to pretend like the Blue Jays haven’t gone from eight games back in the AL East to 1 1/2 games back in 12 days.

Here is another installment of “Monday Mentions” focused on questions and comments from Twitter about the Yankees’ disastrous weekend against the Blue Jays.

It’s hard to win games when you don’t score. The Yankees scored one run, ONE, in their biggest series of the season and the biggest series they have played since the end of 2012 and let the Blue Jays get within 1 1/2 games of them after a Stadium sweep. The Yankees needed to win one game this weekend to keep the Blue Jays five back in the loss column and prevent the weekend from being a complete disaster, but they couldn’t do that. Their best chance to win a game this weekend was on Friday, which is the only game they scored a run, but before they could score a second run, Joe Girardi lost the game.

I have written an unhealthy amount of words on set innings for relievers and how absurd it is, but Girardi is a big believer in having a seventh-inning guy and an eighth-inning guy and a ninth-inning guy and no matter the situation, he’s going to stick with it.

On Friday night, the Yankees and Blue Jays were tied 1-1 in the seventh inning. Nathan Eovaldi was still pitching and after a Mark Teixeira error and a Chase Headley bobble, the Blue Jays had runners on first and second with one out. Girardi called on Justin Wilson to relieve Eovaldi and he struck out Ben Revere on four pitches. Then Girardi called on Dellin Betances to relieve Wilson and he walked Troy Tulowitzki on four pitches and then got Josh Donaldson to ground out.

Betances returned in the eighth inning and after a Jose Bautista leadoff single, he retied Edwin Encarnacion, Justin Smoak and Russell Martin to end the inning.

Girardi called on Andrew Miller to relieve Betances in the ninth and he needed just six pitches to get through the inning against the Blue Jays’ 7-8-9-1 hitters.

The Yankees were unable to score in the bottom of the ninth, so the game went to 10th, and Girardi relieved Miller with rookie Branden Pinder to face the middle of the Blue Jays’ order: Josh Donaldson, Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion. This would have been a frustrating but understandable move if it were the 14th or 15th inning, but it was the 10th inning. But it wasn’t the 14th or 15th, it was the 10th, and it was irresponsible for two reasons.

1. Miller had thrown SIX pitches in the ninth inning. SIX. Miller had thrown five pitches on Sunday against the White Sox and 17 pitches on Thursday against the Red Sox. So after Friday’s ninth inning, he had thrown 28 pitches in six days or 4.7 pitches per day for the week. Is 28 pitches over the course of a week too much? Was the nine pitches it took to retire the Yankees in the bottom of the ninth too much of a layoff between innings for Miller to return for the 10th?

2. Wilson, Betances and Miller had been used. So let’s pretend like Miller really couldn’t go a second inning after throwing SIX pitches and that Girardi had to go to the bullpen. Chasen Shreve and Adam Warren were both still in the bullpen yet Girardi decided that rookie Branden Pinder and his 14 2/3 career innings was the best choice to get through the heart of the order of the best team in Major League Baseball in as close to a playoff game in the regular season as there can be on Aug. 7.

I’m not going to get into Girardi’s bullpen decisions on Saturday and Sunday, which were also incredibly questionable, because the team didn’t score a run in either game. The Yankees are going to have a hard enough time keeping the Blue Jays from overtaking them in the AL East, they don’t need Joe Girardi managing them to losses.

I really don’t understand what Adam Warren’s role is with the team. After being the most consistent starter for the first half of the season, the Yankees put him in the bullpen and left CC Sabathia in the rotation because of money and now Warren is randomly used. Sometimes he pitches with a lead, sometimes he pitches to hold a deficit, sometimes he pitches in the sixth inning, sometimes he pitches in the eighth innings, sometimes he faces on batter, sometimes he pitches multiple innings.

I have no idea when Warren will come into a game or how long he will stay in one. I have no idea what the long-term plan for him is because I have no idea what the current and short-term plan is for him. He went from most reliable starter to being put behind Andrew Miller, Dellin Betances, Justin Wilson and Chasen Shreve on the bullpen pecking order. I would say the Yankees’ handling of him has been very odd, but then again, this is exactly how the Yankees handle pitchers.

https://twitter.com/craigmiller/status/629088613301657600

That tweet was from last Wednesday and five days ago. After that tweet, Drew went 0-for-9 in three games to watch his batting average drop back down to .192 after having gotten it up to a season-high(!) .199 on Sunday in Chicago. Drew has never seen .200 this season. Not on Opening Day. Not in the first week of the season when averages change hundreds of points with each hit and out. Never.

Today is Aug. 10. Stephen Drew is still a Yankee. How that is possible hurts my head to even think about. Drew has started 79 games this season and has gone hitless in 37 of them. So in 47 percent of Drew’s starts, he hasn’t gotten a hit.

The Yankees clearly don’t like Rob Refsnyder as a player and don’t want to give him a chance to become the everyday second baseman. Maybe he does have an attitude problem, which has been rumored, but who cares? If he can hit, I don’t care if one person on the team likes him. If the Yankees aren’t willing to give him a chance right now, what makes anyone think they are going to give him one in September when rosters expand? Just because they won’t have to DFA anyone to have him in the majors at that point doesn’t mean he will playing and not riding the bench, especially if the team is fighting for a postseason spot.

The Yankees chose not to improve the roster at the trade deadline while the Blue Jays and Orioles made big moves to make a run at the division and wild card, while the Royals, Astros, Angels and Rangers all made moves to improve their teams to contend. The Marlins were willing to trade Dan Haren to the Cubs with the Dodgers still paying all of Haren’s $10 million, so I’m pretty sure the Marlins would have been willing to trade Martin Prado back to the Yankees, considering the Yankees were already paying $3 million of his $11 million salary this season and next.

The Yankees traded for Dustin Ackley, designated Garrett Jones for assignment, put Michael Pineda on the DL, called up Luis Severino, put Ackley on the DL and re-signed Jones. Those were the Yankees’ trade deadline moves. Essentially, they did nothing. Ackley would have been the same or worse than Jones, Drew and Brendan Ryan and Severino replaces Pineda, so basically, everything cancels each other out.

https://twitter.com/Timbo367/status/630482347666862080

On July 31, the Yankees had a six-game lead in the AL East. Today, that lead is 1 1/2 games. In the span of nine games, the Yankees managed to blow 75 percent of their lead and now they are a bad road trip in Cleveland and Toronto from being in second place in the division and suddenly in the wild-card game.

But since I was asked … If the Yankees play .500 baseball the rest of the season and go 26-26, here is what the rest of the AL East would have to do just to tie them: Toronto 26-23, Baltimore 31-21, Tampa Bay 31-19, Boston 37-13. That closed quickly.

There is this rhetoric that even after the weekend and even after going 1-4 in their last five games that the Yankees are still in first place. That’s nice, but like I said in that tweet, it’s like being up $1,000 at a casino and giving $950 back and still technically being “up”. The Yankees still have a lead in the division, but from where it was a week ago, or even three days ago, it doesn’t feel like they do.

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Blogs • Email Exchanges • Yankees

Apr 6, 2015

Jealous of the Blue Jays’ Power

The Blue Jays’ lineup is what the Yankees’ lineup once was and the middle of the order is going to be hard to navigate through this season.

Edwin Encarnacion and Jose Bautista

Last week it snowed in New York and this Monday, the Yankees are opening the season in the Bronx against the Blue Jays. It would make more sense to probably play this three-game series in Toronto where there is a dome, but for the first time in forever there is some good weather in the forecast for Opening Day at the Stadium. Either way, baseball is back and that’s all that matters.

With the Yankees and Blue Jays opening the season in the Bronx, I did an email exchange with Tom Dakers of Bluebird Banter to talk about the Blue Jays’ powerful 3-4 combination, the new additions of Russell Martin and Josh Donaldson to the lineup and the state of the Blue Jays’ rotation with Marcus Stroman out for the season.

Keefe: It seems like for a while now it’s been common for preseason predictions to say this is the Blue Jays’ season. And once again that’s the case. The Blue Jays might have the best offense in the league. With a heart of the order that includes Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion and Josh Donaldson, it’s going to be a nightmare for any pitcher to navigate through that every game and that’s not including Jose Reyes at the top of the order or the pesky and former Yankee Russell Martin, who seems to get the biggest of hits.

How excited are you for this Blue Jays lineup?

Dakers: Every spring for the past several years, we thought that the offense was going to be a “world beater”-type offense. A team that would lead the league in scoring. And each year, due to injuries and players not living up to their potential, we ended up with a good, but not great offense.

This year, we are going to have that great offense. One through five, we are better than anyone in the AL. With Donaldson taking the spot of the always-promising, but never-quite-living-up-to-that-promise Brett Lawrie, we should be so much better. Russell Martin’s ability to take a walk won’t hurt. Six through nine in the order doesn’t strike the same amount of fear in opposing teams, but I think they will be better than most imagine.

I think Michael Saunders and Justin Smoak will be helped a bunch by moving from the rather large Safeco Field to the far more offensive friendly Rogers Centre. And I think rookies Dalton Pompey and Devon Travis will do their part to get us back up to the top of the order again, quickly. I’d be very surprised if we aren’t in the Top 2 or 3 in runs scored this year.

Keefe: The Yankees haven’t had a truly formidable 3-4 combination since 2009-2010 when Mark Teixeira and A-Rod were still productive and healthy and could be counted on for their usual power numbers. The Blue Jays have 3-4 combination that every team in the league envies and dreams of in Jose Bautista and Ediwn Encarnacion and each time they don’t hit the ball a mile in an at-bat it’s a sigh of relief. It seems like both of them get their best swings in against the Yankees and both of them seem to be good for a couple of home runs each series against the Yankees.

I miss the days of having steady and reliable production from the middle of the order. How much fun is it to watch those two every day? (I ask because I forget what it’s like.)

Dakers: It’s pretty good. We know that, barring injury, we have 30-plus home runs coming from both Bautista and Encarnacion. If we can get guys on base in front of them, they should both have 100 RBIs easy. This year, for an added bonus, we have Josh Donaldson following them. Donaldson, moving from Oakland to Toronto, might end up hitting the most home runs of the three.

As a Blue Jays fan, I’ve been blessed with getting to watch some great 3-4 hitters over the years. We’ve had Carlos Delgado-Shawn Green, Delgado-Vernon Wells and George Bell and Jesse Barfield, but I think we might end up looking back Bautista and Encarnacion as the best 3-4 hitters in team history.

Keefe: On the other side of the ball, the Blue Jays aren’t set up as nicely. The devastating torn ACL to Marcus Stroman, leaves the Blue Jays without a front-end starter. They still have R.A. Dickey, Mark Buehrle, and Drew Hutchison, which is better than the.

Aside from the Roy Halladay years, the Blue Jays have lacked a true ace in recent years. Maybe Dickey was supposed to be that when he went to Toronto from the Mets before the 2013 season, but he hasn’t been able to continue his 2010-2012 success over the last two years in the AL.

Does the Blue Jays’ pitching worry you?

Dakers: As the pitching sits, on Opening Day, I think we are OK. Many are picking Drew Hutchison to have a breakout season. Mark Buehrle and R.A. Dickey keep giving us 200-inning seasons. And Aaron Sanchez and Daniel Norris have tons of potential and look ready to deliver on that potential. The problem really is that, with Marcus out, forcing both Sanchez and Norris into the rotation, we are paper thin at the position. If one of the starting five were to be injured for any length of time, we would be left with hoping someone like Johan Santana or Randy Wolf can remember how to get guys out or be treated to the likes of Liam Hendriks or Marco Estrada.

Now, we can live with the odd spot start from any of those guys, but multiple starts from anyone one of them could really derail our season. So, Jays fans have to hope for something that we never seem to get, the baseball gods to bless our rotation with health. Maybe this will be the season it happens.

Keefe: Last year, when we did an email exchange for the first Yankees-Blue Jays series in April, you said you weren’t a fan of the Dickey trade and it didn’t work out, but that you were hoping he could be a good member of the rotation.

What are your feelings on Dickey after two years of watching him with the Blue Jays?

Dakers: The good part about Dickey is he takes the ball every five days and will give us six decent innings. Not great innings, but he usually will keep the team in the game. This year, with our offense, that should be enough. But, if you are expecting him to be the guy that outduels the opposition’s ace, it’s not going to happen.

If you have an understanding of what he can give you, 200 of slightly above average starting pitching innings, well, there is a value to that. Unfortunately, the Jays traded for (and gave up pieces that should have got them) the NL Cy Young winner, and what they got was an innings eater and someone that’s OK, but is definitely not ace material.

Keefe: The Blue Jays won 83 games last year, but haven’t finished higher than third place since 2006 and haven’t made the playoffs since 1993. They made what seemed to be a franchise-changing trade with the Marlins two years ago and that didn’t work out. Now they have signed Russell Martin and traded for Josh Donaldson.

The AL East is wide open with no clear favorite this season. You could make a case for any team other than the Rays to win the division this year and every team other than the Rays could win it.

What are your expectations for the Blue Jays this season?

Dakers: I expect them to contend. I think they can be win around 89-90 games, and in a fairly weak-looking AL East, that should be enough to contend. I think their offense is a couple of notches better than last year, I think the team defense is much improved and I think the pitching staff can be better (in large part because I think that Russell Martin is a far better defensive catcher and massively better at framing pitches than Dioner Navarro was).

What they need is health and lots of it. They aren’t deep at any position on the diamond, so an injury or two might have us using Munenori Kawasaki far more than any of us would want, yet again. I mean, I don’t want to knock Munenori, he’s a great guy and a cult favorite in Toronto, and if you are going to have to use a replacement level player, it might as well be a very entertaining one. But if he ends up getting 250 plate appearances again this year, it will be tough to contend.

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Blogs • Email Exchanges • Yankees

Feb 21, 2013

The State of the Yankees: Spring Training Edition

Opening Day is less than six weeks away and with spring training having started, Sweeny Murti made his first appearance of 2013 for an email exchange.

Opening Day is 39 days away. That’s right. Thirty-nine days! And it wouldn’t feel like baseball season is just around the corner without starting the season off the right way.

WFAN Yankees beat reporter Sweeny Murti (the Voice of Reason) joined me for the first time in 2013 for an email exchange to talk about the Yankees now that spring training has started.

Keefe: So we meet again, Sweeny. It’s been a while, but it’s that time of the year again when your phone makes a noise because you have a new email and then you check your email and see that it’s from me only to wonder why you ever gave me your email address to begin with. It’s good to have you back because if we’re talking it means that baseball is back and it’s almost really back.

The last time we talked Derek Jeter didn’t have a plate and screws in his ankle, A-Rod’s performance-enhancing drug use was a thing of the past, Russell Martin and Nick Swisher were still Yankees and I still hated Kevin Youkilis. A lot has changed since Phil Coke closed the book on the 2012 Yankees and judging by the offseason and the word “budget” I would completely understand if you changed your email address without telling me or blocked me altogether from contacting you.

Even though doom and gloom are on everyone’s minds with the 2013 Yankees, I’m actually optimistic about this team. The Yankees are coming off an ALCS appearance, yes it was one in which they were embarrassed, but they were still a 95-win, division champion team that reached the ALCS for the third time in four years. They aren’t the 93-loss Red Sox and they didn’t blow the whole thing up in search of a rebuilding year. I understand that they didn’t have a “sexy” offseason like the Blue Jays or Angels, but like you always say, “Teams like that make those moves to compete with the Yankees.”

So before we get into individual storylines, let’s start with the simple question of why is everyone treating the Yankees like they didn’t win 95 games last season?

Murti: I’m sorry, but I don’t recognize your name and email address. Who are you again?

Seriously, I recognize the name, but you can’t be the real Neil Keefe. You sound way too reasonable and levelheaded to be that Neil Keefe. Oh, well. Whoever you are, here’s my answer.

My guess is that getting swept out of the ALCS made the season feel like a miserable failure and that 95 wins happened almost by accident since they couldn’t possibly be that good. Besides, the Yankees are old now and Derek Jeter, Mariano Rivera and Andy Pettitte are all coming off injuries. Sure, the Yankees had to re-sign Rivera and Pettitte and Hiroki Kuroda and Ichiro Suzuki, but these guys were already here. Yankee fans don’t want their old toys rewrapped and put under the tree. They want all new toys!

I’m glad you realize, “Neil,” that winning the World Series was always very hard to do and is getting even harder now. And when you get to October, the gap between teams is very close and can make a series go either way. It’s hard to think an NFL team with 14 wins can lose a playoff game to a team with eight wins, but it’s entirely possible for a 100-win team to lose a playoff series to an 85-win team. We’ve seen baseball’s postseason turn into a tournament almost like NCAA’s March Madness. But in this Fall Frenzy, the Yankees are like Kentucky or Duke or North Carolina in that they are almost always a 1-seed, but rarely able to complete the journey to a championship.

What you or any Yankee fan should want is a chance and that’s what this organization always gives you: a chance. And for some reason, there are many fans who feel as if watching a team that doesn’t virtually guarantee a championship and make other teams want to quit before Opening Day is a waste of time. I’m glad you don’t fall into that category because that other Neil Keefe certainly is one of them. In fact, I’m almost certain that’s why I haven’t heard from him in months since he’s too paralyzed by grief from last October to even get off his couch.

Keefe: It’s me, Neil. It’s really me. I think the only reason why I’m so optimistic is because it’s Feb. 20, which means there’s less than six weeks until Opening Day against the Red Sox. Talk to me in the top of the first of that game when there are two on and two out and Joe Girardi is going to the mound to talk to CC Sabathia. Let’s just hope Sean Rodriguez isn’t somehow up and Carlos Pena is on deck…

The 2012 season ended when I watched Derek Jeter fall to the ground in Game 1 of the ALCS and not get up causing me to nearly throw up all over John Jastremski, who was next to me in the right field bleachers. I left the Stadium that night knowing that the series was over because 1.) You DON’T lose a game at HOME in YANKEE STADIUM in the PLAYOFFS that you trail by four runs and come back to tie before losing in extra innings. You just dont. And 2.) You’re not winning a series when you just lost your best offensive player and captain for the rest of the postseason.

All of these years the Yankees’ problem in postseason losses has been pitching (outside of Game 5 of the 2011 ALDS and all of the 2012 playoffs) and here the Yankees were getting gems from CC Sabathia, Andy Pettitte and Hiroki Kuroda over and over only to not be able to get men on base or even get the ball out of the infield. But enough about the 2012 Yankees. They failed. (See what you’ve made me do!) Let’s look at the 2013 Yankees and let’s start with the man with the new ankle.

This is the last year of Jeter’s deal before his $8 million player option for 2014 and everyone is saying that at age 39 (in June) and after coming back from ankle surgery, Jeter can’t possibly hit the way he did in 2012. Most of these people are the same people that attribute success and failure in baseball to “luck” and in that case, Derek Jeter has been lucky since 1996 and on top of that, he is the luckiest hitter to ever play for the Yankees since he is the only player in franchise history to reach 3,000 hits. Do you think he will come with me on my next trip to Las Vegas and just sit next to me at the Blackjack table since he apparently exudes an unprecedented amount of luck?

In 2013, I think Jeter will offensively be the same player he was last year. Sure, his range might be declining, but it has been for a while and he’s not about to move to the right any better than he did a year ago, especially with that ankle. But I think his hitting will still be there. At least I keep telling myself it will be the way I keep telling myself he will play forever.

Do you recognize this Neil Keefe yet?

Murti: Well you’re doing a pretty fair impression of Neil, whoever you are. You’ve obviously done your homework.

What Jeter did in 2012 is enough reason not to doubt his ability to hit in 2013, but the injury does add an interesting layer to the discussion. He’s overcoming a major injury, but the time between meaningful at-bats is the same as it is every offseason for Jeter (October to April). If you want to believe that he’s going to still be a good hitter, I won’t stop you.

Of course, we must look at the realization of Jeter’s 39th birthday approaching this June. But rather than predicting Jeter’s decline, watching him for all these years makes me realize it’s smarter to just wait for it to happen. It might be this year. It might be in three years. But Jeter wants you to think it’s right now, because he seems to enjoy saying, “I told ya so” almost as much as Michael Jordan, who I believe celebrated a birthday recently. I’m not sure, I think I saw something about that somewhere.

Before we can find out the answer it will be a daily exercise in spring training to gauge how well Jeter is running and moving. I might even suggest that he change his walk-up song to Bobby Brown’s “Every Little Step.” How do you feel about that?

Keefe: I always liked when he used “Nasty Girl” by B.I.G. or even when he started using Puff Daddy’s “Come With Me” (the remake of “Kashmir”) even if A-Rod used to use it. So I guess I’m OK with him switching to Bobby Brown.

As for A-Rod, is anyone surprised at this new report that he might have used performance-enhancing drugs again? I’m not sure how anyone could be surprised that a former user decided to use again with his career in serious decline to the point that he became a bench player in the postseason. My only problem with A-Rod using performance-enhancing drugs is that if he was using them during the postseason, he might want to try a different brand.

This is your 13th spring training with the Yankees and I can’t imagine that any spring was as chaotic as 2009 with the Yankees coming off their first postseasonless year since 1993 and new free agents CC Sabathia, Mark Teixeira and yes, that guy A.J. Burnett in pinstripes and the anticipation of opening a new Stadium and the Sports Illustrated report breaking A-Rod’s PED use and then A-Rod missing the beginning of the season due to hip surgery that forced Cody Ransom (just the name makes me think about drinking in the morning) into the starting lineup. I don’t think any spring could match up with that one during your time covering the team, but tell me if I’m wrong.

And when I think about everything that happened in February and March of 2009, months before the Yankees went on to win the World Series, it makes me think about how little of a deal all of this attention being paid to A-Rod’s second PED problem and the aging lineup and Mark Teixeira telling the Wall Street Journal that he’s overpaid and now Phil Hughes’ back problem in the first week of baseball. All of this seems like a walk in the park.

Sorry, I got off track there for a minute. I know A-Rod’s situation is much more complicated than anyone realizes and unless the Yankees hit a massive parlay, he will be collecting that $114 million from them. My question to you is: Over/under 0.5 games for A-Rod as a Yankee ever again?

Murti: Okay, now I recognize you, Neil. We really have to work on this A.J. Burnett fixation of yours. Although I would like to point out to you Game 2 of the 2009 World … oh, never mind.

Spring training highlights of the past 13 years? Oh there have been plenty: A-Rod ripping Jeter in Esquire in 2001; Ruben Rivera stealing Jeter’s glove in 2002; David Wells’ book fiasco in 2003; Kevin Brown being Kevin Brown, Randy Johnson’s love child, Carl Pavano’s bruised buttocks, Hideki Matsui’s wedding, Shelley Duncan fighting the Rays, Kei Igawa running like Forrest Gump, A-Rod and Jason Giambi and every PED story for the last 10 years and Joba Chamerlain and the trampoline. I won’t even pretend to rank these spring training stories in any order. Let’s just say they are all my very special children. “It Happens Every Spring,” as they say.

I’m going to take the over on your wager. As I explained here a few weeks ago, getting rid of A-Rod is wishful thinking. Will he be any good when he comes back? That’s a question none of us can answer. But I think we are pretty certain he’s never going to be a 40-home run threat again. Unless you’re talking about two or three years worth. Then maybe.

Keefe: Speaking of A.J. Burnett, Russell Martin used, “Wow” to talk about Burnett’s first bullpen session of the spring. Maybe Martin has short-term memory loss from when they were both Yankees in 2011 or maybe he forgot that Burnett was throwing to just him with no one in the box and no runners on base and no game to be won or lost and no wild pitches being counted. But hey, let’s give the Pirates their moment in February.

I’m going to miss Russell Martin. Sure, there were times when Chris Stewart or Steve Pearce gave me more confidence at the plate than Martin, but he came up with big, clutch hits and played great defense for the Yankees, and I think it was a mistake to let him leave.

The other reason I’m going to miss him is because right now the Yankees’ Opening Day catcher is either going to be Austin Romine and his 20 career plate appearances or Francisco Cervelli, who belongs anywhere other than a Major League roster.

Now I’m always the first person to say that anything the Yankees receive offensively from their catcher is a plus, and if people are going to blame the catcher for the team’s offensive problems (a lot of people did this with Martin) then they are identifying the real problem (the heart of the order). But how worried should I be about the catching situation?

Murti: I guarantee you’re going to be the one who complains when the combination of Stewart/Cervelli/Romine doesn’t get a hit in a big spot. This is where you truly become Neil Keefe again.

And I’m fairly certain Stewart will end up catching Opening Day with CC Sabathia on the mound, but that’s neither here nor there.

The Yankees don’t have a 120-game, every day type of catcher. Losing Martin hurts, but it won’t kill them. The cumulative effect of losing so many home runs might (A-Rod, Swisher, Martin, Ibanez, Chavez). It’s a pretty significant dropoff. But to your original point, the Yankees will have enough defefensive options behind the plate and will have to deal with the offensive shortcomings. It makes you realize what a luxury it was having Jorge Posada all those years. Even if he wasn’t a Gold Glove winner behind the plate, his offense was something you don’t normally see from that position.

A trickle-down effect of not having an offensive catcher, however, is the construction of your bench. Late in a game the Yankees could have two pinch-hit options if Nunez and, say Stewart are due up against a righty. If a righty started the game, chances are the Yankees starting lineup would already have all their lefty hitters in the game (Gardner, Granderson, Suzuki, Cano, Hafner). But they will likely not have more than one lefty bat on that bench (I’m assuming Dan Johnson if he makes the team). Otherwise you will have a bench that includes some combination of Nix and Nunez and Matt Diaz.

The last two years the Yankees could boast a bench that had over 600 career home runs between Eric Chavez and Andruw Jones. The bench won’t be quite so deep anymore, at least in terms of experience.

Keefe: Nothing says Opening Day in the Bronx like Chris Stewart being announced as the starting catcher! I guess things could be worse. Carl Pavano could be starting the Opening Day starter like he was in 2007.

For the first time in a long time and the first time in our now fourth season of these exchanges I’m not worried about the starting pitching. But if I’m not worried about something that’s never a good sign. Maybe it’s time to start worrying.

CC Sabathia, Andy Pettitte and Hiroki Kuroda are as good of 1-2-3 in the American League. Behind them there’s Phil Hughes, David Phelps and Michael Pineda and thankfully not Freddy Garcia. Hughes is already having back problems and Pineda is looking at a midseason return to the rotation. If Hughes’ bulging disc prevents him from being ready for the season and with the Yankees having just one off day in the first two weeks of the season and just two in all of April, who would be the strongest candidate for the opening spot?

Murti: Ivan Nova fell that far off your radar, huh?  Maybe you have forgotten all about him, and now you’re worried again.

Nova is a good bet to win a rotation spot, I think. And even though Phelps pitched well last year and could again this spring, I think his versatility is a key to the bullpen and makes him a good long man/spot start candidate. This is how I would draw it up, but so many things can happen when Opening Day is still more than a month away.

As for Pineda, there will be few daily updates on his progress since he isn’t on the same program yet as the rest of the pitchers. It’s still less than a year since his shoulder surgery. The important updates on Pineda will be in April and May with a hope that he is big league ready again in June or July. The Yankees don’t want to rush him back. They would prefer not to have any setbacks considering the investment they have made in him.

I’m sure, Neil, you will have plenty of time to moan and groan about Pineda. It just won’t be at the start of the season.

Keefe: I didn’t forget about Nova … I wanted to forget about him. There’s no doubt in my mind that Nova will be given every chance to succeed as a starter and (most likely) ultimately let me down.

I always thought Carl Pavano getting embarrassed by the Red Sox in a 17-1 loss at the Stadium on May 28, 2005 would be the worst starting pitching performance I ever attended, but then Ivan Nova had his night against the Orioles on July 31 last season when he blew a 5-0 first-inning lead by allowing seven runs in the second inning on six hits, including a grand slam, and a walk. He allowed nine earned runs (isn’t this when you and Bald Vinny do your “Nine!” thing?) in the game and followed it up by allowing seven earned runs in Detroit six days later. And then he followed that up with 10 strikeouts against the Blue Jays five days later. Ivan Nova has me so confused, but he finished the season with a 5.02 ERA and if he’s given a rotation spot, I’m scared he will get too many chances before he’s removed of it. (See: Freddy Garcia, 2012.)

This Saturday will be the first baseball of the year even if it’s fake and in less than six weeks we’ll be in the Bronx for real, actual, meaningful baseball. I would like to think that between now and Opening Day I won’t need to bother you to be reassured that this isn’t the year when the Yankees finally bottom out like the 2012 Red Sox, but I know there will be an issue to address between now and April 1 at 1:05 p.m. I will keep your email and phone number handy.

Murti: Jeter joked the other day that he didnt’ get to talk to Mariano very much this winter because Mariano changed his phone number. Not that I’m comparing either of us to either of them, but it does give me an idea.

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Oct 17, 2012

ALCS Game 3 Thoughts: ‘Why Not Us?’

The Yankees lost Game 3 of the ALCS and are one loss away from elimination unless they can do what was once done to them.

What if I told you Robinson Cano would have three hits in eight postseason games and none of them are home runs? What if I told you Curtis Granderson would have 15 strikeouts in 29 at-bats in the postseason? What if I told you Brett Gardner would lead off Game 3 of the ALCS, Eduardo Nunez would play shortstop and Eric Chavez would start at third base? What if I told you that the Yankees would be held scoreless in 28 of the 30 innings of the first three games of the ALCS? What if I told you the Yankees would give up nine runs in the first three games of the ALCS and be down 3-0 in the series?

That’s how I envision the voiceover guy for ESPN previewing the “30 for 30” series remake of Four Days in October in a few years to document these next four games of the ALCS. Because for some wild reason I believe that this Yankees team can come back in the ALCS against the Tigers. (No, I’m not drunk as I write this.)

I thought about calling these thoughts about Game 3 “Hi, Mom” to honor Alex Rodriguez mouthing those words to the TBS camera before first pitch. A-Rod sitting on the bench once again for Eric Chavez is as much of a joke as his in-game antics, which are as much of a joke as how the Yankees have played the first three games of the series. A-Rod not being in the Game 3 lineup was the only problem I had with Joe Girardi’s Game 3 lineup.

Yes, A-Rod has been awful and unproductive and hard to watch and a complete waste of money in these playoffs, but he did hit two home runs off of Justin Verlander this season. And if you aren’t keeping track at home, Eric Chavez is still hitless this October. But Girardi did what he thinks he has to do every game now and benched A-Rod, which is the “cool” thing to do these days. (What, mom? Everyone’s doing it!) Maybe we will find out after the season ends that A-Rod is legitimately hurt and that is the cause for his slump and for Girardi putting him in the Eduardo Nunez Early-Season Doghouse.

Game 3 was about what Games 1 and 2 were about: the Yankees’ inability to score runs. Well, actually this game was about the Yankees’ inability to even put guys on base. Ichiro was once again the only Yankee who could do anything and Mark Teixeira, Robinson Cano and Curtis Granderson continued to do nothing related to power.

I’m not mad about Raul Ibanez and not A-Rod hitting against the left-handed Phil Coke in the ninth inning since the Tigers would have brought in the right-handed Joaquin Benoit to face A-Rod anyway. I’m mad that Ibanez swung at ball four against Coke, but let’s be honest, Nick Swisher wasn’t tying the game if got a chance to hit after Ibanez.

The Yankees are in the worst of spots. Five days after surviving one elimination game they will have to survive another. And if they want to make it out of the ALCS they will have to survive four of these games in the next five days. It’s improbable, but not impossible and even I (of all people) believe that this Yankees team can do it. (Again, I’m not drunk.)

I entered Phase 1 of the Yankees Elimination Process on Saturday night with the combination of losing a game in which there was an epic comeback turned and the loss of Derek Jeter. I’m not ready to enter Phase 2 yet and I don’t think CC Sabathia will let me get to Phase 2 yet. We’ll get to the different phases of the Yankees Elimination Process if there isn’t a Game 5 on Thursday, but I think there will be. I know there will be.

***

Here are my thoughts from Game 3 of the ALCS.

– If anyone still thinks Robinson Cano is a Top 5 player in the league, I can give you my MLB TV account and password so you can go online and re-watch these postseason games.

– I have watched five of the eight postseason games on TV and in all five games I haven’t been able to know if the pitch is going to be a ball or a strike until the umpire signals for one or the other. That’s not good, is it? No, no it’s not. Justin Verlander is either the best pitcher on the planet or he’s the second-best pitcher on the planet (I’m taking Felix Hernandez first.) He doesn’t need any help from the umpire. But in Game 3, Verlander was getting blatant balls called strikes while Phil Hughes, who needs all the help he can get, was getting blatant strikes called balls. If you want to have a non-textbook strike zone or a moving strike zone, fine. Well, it’s not really fine, but if you want to have either one of those then at least be consistent for both pitchers.

– If you believe in TBS’ slogan of “Legends are born in October,” well, Ichiro’s birthday is Oct. 22. The only problem with that is Robinson Cano’s birthday is also Oct. 22.

– Was Eric Chavez hooking up with the two girls A-Rod landed at the Stadium in Game 2? Unless he got shot with a paintball gun on the off day on Monday, he definitely got a hickey from someone.

– Russell Martin has caught every inning of the playoffs for the Yankees, including two 12-inning games and a 13-inning game. There he was during Game 3 having his hand and wrist looked at it in the dugout in the middle of the game and there’s most likely something wrong with it, but he continued to play. I can’t help, but think that Mark Teixeira was probably advising him to not play if he’s even at 80-percent health.

– Is YES going to show Kevin Long in 2013 when Curtis Granderson hits a home run off a lefty or are we finally over that? Maybe Kevin Long is only responsible for when things are going right for the Yankees offense and they are crushing No. 4 and 5 starters in the regular season and September call-ups. If Kevin Long can survive the offseason after this postseason disaster then the Yankees might as well give him a lifetime contract because if he’s not going to be fired for this then he can’t possibly be fired for anything related to the team’s hitting ever.

– My brother texted me to say that John Sterling called Eduardo Nunez’s foul ball in the ninth inning fair. Never change, John Sterling. Never change.

– Phil Coke has reached the Josh Beckett Tier of Athletes I Hate to Look At. There aren’t many people in this club, but Coke has made it. Congratulations, I guess?

– Nick Swisher better not be in the lineup for Game 4. He shouldn’t be in the lineup again this series. And if he isn’t and he has played his last game as a Yankee, I can proudly say that I didn’t enjoy having the opportunity to watch him play baseball for four years.

– My fear of having “Land of Hope and Dreams” forever linked to postseason failure from the Yankees is coming true. It might be time for TBS to play “Lonesome Day” or “Better Days” on the Tri-state feed when they go to commercial. I’m all for them changing it to the song about Linda in The Wedding Singer if they have to. We’re at that point.

A wise man named Curt Schilling once asked, “Why not us?” So, I ask that question today with the Yankees facing a 3-0 deficit in the ALCS. Why not us?

This train carries CC Sabathia in Game 4. Don’t make it the last stop.

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