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Tag: Robinson Cano

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Oct 9, 2012

ALDS Game 2 Thoughts: It’s Always A-Rod’s Fault

The Yankees lost Game 2 of the ALDS to the Orioles and everyone wants to blame A-Rod.

On Tuesday morning on the subway I was standing with my back to the door and the guy sitting down in the second seat to the right of me was reading the New York Post on his iPad, so I decided to read it with him. I couldn’t actually read the articles from where I was, but I could see the headlines. I only needed to see one to stop reading.

Even when A-Rod hits liners it turns into outs for Yankees

If A-Rod went 3-for-4 in Game 2, but the one out he made was the strikeout to end the game against Jim Johnson, there would still be negative headlines about him. But when he goes 1-for-5 and is now 1-for-9 with with five strikeouts in two games, well he’s feeding the New York media exactly what they want.

A-Rod shouldn’t be hitting third. He shouldn’t have been hitting third for a long time now. But does that mean the Yankees’ Game 2 loss is his fault or that he should take responsibility for it because he’s the team’s highest-paid player? Of course not. But that’s how the world works when it comes to A-Rod. He has never been given any sort of pass since he arrived in 2004 when the Yankees lost the ALCS because of Joe Torre, Tom Gordon, Kevin Brown, Javier Vazquez and a short wall in right field at Fenway Park. It was his fault in 2005 when Randy Johnson destroyed Game 3 and Bubba Crosby and Gary Sheffifled crashed into each other in Game 5. It was all on him in 2006 when Mike Mussina couldn’t hold a lead and Randy Johnson and Jaret Wright couldn’t get an out. In 2007, it was all A-Rod and not Chien-Ming Wang giving up 12 earned runs on 14 hits in just 5 2/3 innings in two starts against the Indians. In 2009, the Yankees won because of A-Rod and really only because of him. It was on A-Rod when Phil Hughes pulled a Chien-Ming Wang in the 2010 ALCS against the Rangers and A.J. Burnett was given the chance to face Bengie Molina in Game 4. And last year, it was A-Rod’s fault that Freddy Garica started Game 2, CC Sabathia came up short in Game 3 and Ivan Nova looked like A.J. Burnett early in Game 5.

A-Rod has been bad in every postseason series for the Yankees except the 2004 ALDS against the Twins and all of the 2009 playoffs. And not just “bad,” but painfully bad. Here are his averages in playoff series that aren’t the 2004 ALDS or any of the 2009 playoffs.

2004 ALCS: .258
2005 ALDS: .133
2006 ALDS: .071
2007 ALDS: .267
2010 ALDS: .273
2010 ALCS: .190
2011 ALDS: .111

The last time A-Rod hit a postseason home run was in Game 3 of the 2009 World Series. Since then he has played in 18 playoff games and has had 65 at-bats. But even as bad as A-Rod has been in October, it’s disgusting the attention and criticism he endures because of his lack of production in October.

Guess who these postseason series averages belong to: .167, .222, .136, .308, .000 (0-for-14) and .167. Those would be the postseason series averages for Mark Teixeira prior to the start of the 2012 postseason. Guess how many postseason home runs Teixeira has for the Yankees in six series prior to 2012? Three. That’s three home runs in 29 games and 106 at-bats. Mark Teixeira has been a worse postseason player than Alex Rodriguez in his three postseasons with the team before this year. So why is it that Teixeira gets a free pass for failure and A-Rod doesn’t? It’s not like Mark Teixeira is making the league minimum at $22.5 million per year (just $6.5 million less than A-Rod will make this year) as the second highest-paid player on the team. The reason is because Mark Teixeira was part of a championship team in his first season in New York and A-Rod wasn’t. The ironic part is that Teixeira was part of a championship team because of A-Rod.

Teixeira never had to deal with questions about why he hit .167 against the Twins in the 2009 ALDS or .222 against the Angels in the 2009 ALCS or .136 against the Phillies in the 2009 World Series because while he was busy leaving everyone on base and being what A-Rod was from the 2004 ALCS through the 2007 ALDS, A-Rod was busy winning the World Series for the Yankees. So instead of hearing about what a terrible free-agent signing Teixeira was for Brian Cashman because he isn’t a clutch player, the lasting image of Mark Teixeira in 2009 is him hugging A-Rod and Derek Jeter in the center of the Yankee Stadium infield.

A-Rod is going to hear it from the Stadium on Wednesday night if he doesn’t produce in Game 3 and Mark Teixeira will hear it too, but he’ll hear it less. Because if the Yankees don’t win every postseason game and don’t win the last game of their postseason then it’s on A-Rod’s and no one else. Mark Teixeira will get a free pass. He always does.

***

As I wrote after Game 1 and will do after every Yankees postseason game, here are my thoughts from Game 2 of the ALDS.

– Sweeny Murti is calling it the “Ichiro Shuffle.” I’m going to call it magic. The slide and moves that Ichiro put on Matt Wieters in the play at the plate in the first inning were unbelievable. The sad thing is that Rob Thomson sent Ichiro on the play. Is there a worse third base coach in the league than Thomson? I’m not sure, but I don’t know a more known third base coach and that’s never a good thing. Most of the time Thomson holds guys up when he shouldn’t, but when he finally has a chance to, he sends Ichiro home and the ball got to Wieters before Ichiro was even at the “P” in “POSTSEASON” written on the third-base line. If Ichiro was tagged out there, that would have been the second out made at the plate in two games for the Yankees. No big deal!

– If A-Swisheira doesn’t produce then the Yankees will not advance to the ALCS. It’s that easy.

– Mark Teixeira might have been the slowest player in Major League Baseball before his calf injury. Now it’s not even a discussion. If I need Teixeira or Jorge Posada to score from second on a single, I’m taking Posada every single time and that’s scary. Teixeira was thrown out at second in Game 1 on a ball off the right-field wall and in Game 2 he couldn’t score from second on a single up the middle from Curtis Granderson. But that’s not even the worst part. The worst part is that after his leadoff single in the eighth inning, Joe Girardi chose not to pinch run for a guy who has proven he is a station-to-station runner. I guess the decision to leave Teixeira in the game isn’t worth complaining about since Brett Gardner is out for the season and not on the playoff roster and wasn’t available to pinch run for Teixeira. Wait? Brett Gardner is on the postseason roster and was available off the bench to pinch run in Game 2? I don’t believe you.

– I never talk negatively about Derek Jeter and I’m not going to here. All I’m going to say is that he looked drunk in the field and he probably shouldn’t have swung at the first pitch against Jim Johnson in the ninth inning, a night after Johnson was embarrassed for five runs in 1/3 of an inning. But again, I’m not going to talk negatively about Derek Jeter or criticize his play.

– Wei-Yin Chen was getting fatigued and his pitch count was rising like Jason Hammel’s and then in the fifth inning, Ichiro got out on the first pitch and then A-Rod got out on the first pitch and then Cano got out on the second pitch. Three outs on four pitches without a double play. That’s impressive.

– It’s hard to win in the postseason, period. It’s even harder to win when you have to get four outs a few innings a game. Luckily an error hasn’t cost the Yankees yet, but eventually one will if they continue to play this bad defensively.

– How much money did Mark Teixeira give Ernie Johnson, John Smoltz and Cal Ripken Jr. to say nothing negative about him? (Did you notice how I didn’t ask if you think Teixeira paid them because it’s not a question. He paid them.) I’m going with $145,061.73 each since that is what Teixeira makes per regular season game and since he didn’t play for the final month of the year because he wasn’t about to play at 80 percent (his words not mine) during a pennant race that went down to the last day of the season, he probably felt like he could afford to give up three games pay to make sure national TV viewers don’t think he sucks.

The problem with Teixeira supporters is that when he doesn’t hit they can always say, “Well, he makes up for it with his defense.” That’s nice and all, but Teixeira didn’t get $180 million because he plays great defense. Doug Mientkiewicz played well defensively and he made $1.5 million for the Yankees in 2007. If you’re going to misplay grounders like Teixeira did in Game 2 then that argument is destroyed.

– Here’s a picture of Robisnon Cano’s effort on Mark Reynolds’ RBI single that made it 3-1.

If you didn’t see the play, the next picture in the sequence isn’t Canoon the ground with the ball in the outfield after laying out for it. The next picture is Cano standing there with Nick Swisher fielding the ball. What does that mean? It means Cano didn’t dive to knock the ball down. If Cano knocks the ball down then Wieters doesn’t score. If Wieters doesn’t score then the Orioles’ lead is only 2-1. The Yankees scored again later in the game. That means the score would have been 2-2. I understand this is all part of Michael Kay’s “fallacy of the predetermined outcome,” but how is Cano not going to dive there and knock the ball down? Not giving maximum effort to save a run in the postseason doesn’t matter anyway.

– For the second straight game I had no idea what was a ball and what a strike was, and I wasn’t alone.

– Ernie Johnson dropped the old “(Player name) and (Player name) are a combined (number) years old” line when Andy Pettitte faced Jim Thome. Is there a worse and more meaningless saying in sports? No.

– In Game 1, Derek Jeter was asked to bunt. Derek Jeter is the all-time Yankees hits leader. Derek Jeter is the all-time postseason hits leader. Derek Jeter was Major League Baseball’s hits leader this year.

In Game 2, Ichiro was asked to bunt. Ichiro might be the best hitter in the history of baseball and he hit .322 as Yankee in 67 games. Right now Ichiro and Jeter are the only two Yankees you can fully trust to come through in a big spot and they have both been asked to give up at-bats.

Again, I know Joe Girardi will keep bunting in these spots even if he successful zero percent of the time, so I’m wasiting words even talking about it, but if I don’t get my frustration out here it will come out during or after games and lead to me getting evicted from my apartment. And because of me blaring The Wallflowers’ “One Headlight” a couple weekends ago late at night, it’s not out of the realm of possibility.

– I wish I were upset when Curtis Granderson strikes out in big spots, but I’m not. At this point I assume he’s going to strike out and if he makes contact I consider it a moral victory. That’s not good, is it?

– I’m saving everything that I have built up in my head for Nick Swisher for another time and another column.

This train carries Hiroki Kuroda in Game 3.

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Blogs • Yankees

Sep 4, 2012

First Place Isn’t Supposed to Feel This Way

The Yankees’ 10-game lead is now a one-game lead, but the Yankees say they aren’t panicking. They are the only ones who aren’t.

I know that seasonal depression is a real thing because I’m pretty sure I have it. When I left Atlantic City on Sunday afternoon after a weekend with a group of guys that I see sparingly, including some I now see only once a year, it was on the train ride back when it really hit me: summer is over, and there’s no getting it back.

I spent the weekend drinking anything handed to me, inhaling second-hand smoke at the tables, sleeping in an overcrowded hotel room and trying to draft the perfect fantasy football team (which is the real reason we went to AC in the first place). But really what I was doing was attempting to be Billy Chapel in For Love of the Game and trying to “push the sun back up in the sky and give us one more day of summer.”

It seems like just yesterday I was in Nantucket for Figawi and Memorial Day weekend and in Boston for the Yankees-Red Sox series over Fourth of July weekend. Now it’s September 4, it’s getting cold at night and the Giants’ season begins on Wednesday night. Is this real life?

The end of summer is devastating, but it’s inevitable and because of that, it doesn’t come close to the level of devastation that the Yankees are putting me through as they are now one game away from erasing the 10-game lead they held on July 18. But when you combine the end of summer with the Yankees’ second-half slide, well I’m on the verge of spending the next six-plus months in my bed like Brian Wilson from the Beach Boys until Opening Day 2013.

How did we get here? The easy answer is injuries. Andy Pettitte broke his leg, CC Sabathia hit the disabled list twice, A-Rod missed over a month, Ivan Nova sucked before getting hurt, and Nick Swisher, Mark Teixeira, Curtis Granderson and now maybe Robinson Cano have missed time due to various injuries. Injuries is the easy answer, but it’s not the real answer. The real answer is that the Yankees have played bad baseball since the All-Star break, and that’s the real answer because if I cite injuries as the reason for nine games of their 10-game lead being erased then I’m no better than John Henry or Larry Lucchino or Bobby Valentine. I’m not going to use injuries as an excuse because that’s irresponsible and would make me unaccountable as a Yankee fan. Every team has injuries and no one cares about who is injured. People care about who wins.

The 2008 Yankees were a train wreck and that had a lot to do with injuries. But no one felt bad for them and in the long run, people will remember the 2008 Yankees as the first Yankees team to miss the postseason since 1993 rather than the team that had Darrell Rasner and Sidney Ponson start 40 games combined or the team that had Jose Molina play in 100 games or the team that actually picked up Richie Sexson and played him because things got so bad. No, people will just remember the 2008 Yankees as the team that failed.

The same goes for the 2012 Yankees. No one will care that the 2012 Yankees lost Michael Pineda without ever throwing a pitch, lost Mariano Rivera and Brett Gardner to season-ending injuries, only got nine starts out of Andy Pettitte until now or that a handful of other key guys missed significant time. All that matters is whether or not the Yankees make the postseason and what they do in the postseason.

With a one-game lead with 28 games to go (and a relatively easy schedule), the 2012 Yankees can become one of three things between now and the last out of Game 162.

1. They can hang on to win the the division and this column will have been a waste of my time writing and your time reading.

2. They can blow the division lead and play in Bud Selig’s one-game playoff, which will likely end with me being hooked up to a respirator.

3. They can blow the division lead and miss the one-game playoff, and I will take myself off the grid and go into hiding indefinitely.

After Monday’s loss, the Yankees were asked about whether or not they are panicking now that they are a loss and a Baltimore win on Tuesday away from not having sole possession of first place in the AL East anymore. Let’s take a look at what they had to say with my response to their explanation.

(Warning: Things said in this column might be irrational and unreasonable. That’s what happens when a 10-game lead becomes a one-game lead.)

“Who’s panicking? You? Are you panicking? How do you deal with panic? … I don’t panic. So I don’t have to deal with it. Everyone deals with it differently. But I’m not one to panic.” – Derek Jeter

Yes, I’m panicking. Yes, I also understand that Derek Jeter isn’t going to say that the sh-t has hit the fan and the Yankees are in trouble. This is the same guy who could lose his house and everything he owns in a hurricane and stand next to his destroyed home and tell you that everything is going to be fine. So while I want to believe Derek Jeter because I don’t know any other way, it’s really hard to believe him right now. I’m glad he doesn’t have to panic. I’m glad this is so easy for him.

“It’s not a good feeling. You lose some games, and you just want to win games. You don’t want to put your head down. Just got to turn the page. Just be ready for tomorrow. … It’s a little bit hard, but you don’t want to send negative messages to your brain. You’ve got to be positive and just mentally prepare for tomorrow.” – Robinson Cano

It’s Robbie Cano … sports psychologist … don’t ya know! I could get on Robinson Cano’s recent lack of hustling, but I won’t because that’s who Robinson Cano is. Instead let’s just go with who Robinson Cano isn’t: On July 18, the Yankees had a 10-game lead. On July 19, they lost the first game of a four-game sweep at the hands of the A’s. Since July 19, Cano is hitting .265/.335/.457 with seven home runs and 16 RBIs in 42 games. When exactly is “tomorrow” coming?

“See, I look at the positives, you know what I’m saying? Like I said before we even got into this month, we play everyone. So we’ve got to win games. That’s it. It doesn’t get any more complicated than that. … We beat some teams early on, right? Baseball’s a funny game, a funny sport. Sometimes you struggle a bit, and then all of a sudden, things seem to change and you roll off a lot of wins.” – Derek Jeter

The Yankees play the Rays the next two days and then they play the Orioles in a four-game series at Camden Yards. I want to think they will win all six games and go on the kind of run Derek Jeter thinks they can go on and this will all be a minor blip on the 2012 season. But if I can easily believe that then I should also believe that the money left under my pillow in exchange for a lost tooth came from someone other than my parents when I was younger.

“We all gotta’ do what we do. The way you come out of things like this is by doing the little things and if we focus on doing the little things and become master at those we don’t have to worry about big things. And hopefully we’re on our way. I think nobody’s panicking. We’ve done this for a long time.” – Alex Rodriguez

If the Yankees can master the little things then they won’t have to worry about big things? What the eff? How does no one follow this answer up with a question asking what any of this means?

“It’s baseball. We’ve got to go out and keep playing. It’s a tough game but we still have a lead. It’s all up to us and hopefully we can turn it around. … We’ve had some injuries. We’ve got some guys coming back. Hopefully that could give us a shot in the arm to be able to take off and start playing well. … Like I said, it’s up to us to go out and play well and I didn’t help us out today.” – CC Sabathia

Hey, it’s CC Sabathia making excuses! Don’t you just love the “We’ve had some injuries” thrown into the middle of his answer? At least he made up for it by finishing with “I didn’t help us out today” so he isn’t completely delusional like Ivan Nova at times this season and Ian Kennedy back in 2009.

I got scared when CC started this answer by saying “It’s baseball” and thought he might go off on a Tom Glavine 2007 rant about how baseball doesn’t really matter in the grand scheme of life and that there are more important things to worry and care about. But CC Sabathia will make $23 million this season, so I’m glad he isn’t as stupid as Glavine was to go down that road.

It’s rare, very rare, that I recklessly throw out a “Ladies and gentlemen, CC Sabathia!” but I did it on Monday afternoon and I felt good after I did it. A lot of people went into Monday saying, “This is why the Yankees signed CC and re-signed him for all that money … to win games like this.” Well, he lost. He lost for the second time in as many starts since coming off the DL for the second time. Last Wednesday he blew two leads to the lowly Blue Jays and on Monday he blew a one-run lead to the Rays after just one shutdown inning following the Yankees taking a lead. We are CC Sabathia losing his next start away from me talking about how much money he makes per start the way I used to have to with A.J. Burnett.

“I thought the team played with some energy. Today was just a classic game of two great pitchers going at each other and we came up on the short end. But I feel if we play with that type of intensity it’s going to be a fun month of September.” – Alex Rodriguez

A “classic game” huh? I don’t even know what to say about that. And if the Yankees play the way they did on Monday, a game in which they lost, then how is September going to be fun at all?

“I’m always positive. That’s my personality. I’ve said it all along; these guys have found a way to get it done all year long through a lot of adversity, through a lot of injuries, through a lot of different things that we’ve been through. I believe they’re going to do it. That’s who they are and I believe in them.” – Joe Girardi

Joe Girardi lies a lot. We all know that. But this might be the biggest lie of them all. How have the Yankees handled adversity and their injuries well? They have all but erased their division lead, and as another part of adversity, they have won zero games when trailing after eight innings. The Yankees are supposed to be built on the notion that they are never out of a game and they will fight until the last out. But what good is fighting until the last out, if you never win the fight?

A wise man once said, “When you win the division, you don’t really care what you win by.” That wise man was Joe Girardi on Monday after the Yankees 4-3 loss to Tampa Bay, which cut their AL East lead to one game. You remember that lead, right? It was 10 games back on July 18. On Tuesday night it could be zero. I miss that 10-game lead and I miss summer.

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Blogs • Email Exchanges • Yankees

Aug 29, 2012

A State of Worry for the Yankees

The Yankees have basically played .500 baseball in the second half and the constant worrying about their division lead led to an email exchange with Jake Strasser of Barstool Sports.

On Wednesday, July 18, the Yankees finished a sweep of the Blue Jays with a 6-0 win at the Stadium and they finished the day with a 10-game lead in the division. Today their lead is 3 1/2 games.

The Yankees have gone 22-21 since the All-Star break and 18-20 since they held that 10-game lead on July 18. The injuries are mounting and now the team will enter September without Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira in the lineup. I haven’t pulled the alarm yet on the 2012 Yankees and avoiding the one-game playoff, but I have shattered the glass and my hand is on the lever.

With constant worrying and scoreboard watching each day, I thought it would be a good idea to talk to someone who I know is going through the same thing. And that’s how this email exchange with Jake Strasser of Barstool Sports started.

Keefe: On Tuesday night, Steve Pearce hit fourth for the Yankees. Russell Martin hit fifth. If you didn’t watch the game, I could probably sell you on the idea that I hit sixth and the doorman in my apartment building hit seventh. That’s how bad things are right now for the Yankees due to injuries.

With A-Rod already out, Mark Teixeira went down on Monday night and Joe Girardi said he could be out “seven, eight or 15 days.” (The man who counted like that actually went to Northwestern University.) So yeah, if our starting pitching right now doesn’t do what Phil Hughes did on Tuesday night then it’s going to be really hard to win games. And if Rafael Soriano does what he did on Monday night it’s going to be even harder.

The reason the Yankees lost in five games to the Tigers last year was because of their hitting. Their pitching could have been better, but it was their hitting with runners in scoring position and the heart of the order that did them in. This year I’m scared that the same thing might happen. Actually I’m not scared … I’m petrified. And it’s not even the ALDS I’m scared of. It’s the one-game playoff. I have already been stocking up on bottled water, canned foods, flashlights and batteries in the event that the Yankees have to play in that one-game playoff.

It wasn’t too long ago that the Yankees had a comfortable 10-game lead in the division and I was laughing and watching games with a spring training mentality. Now with a month to go I feel like every game is Game 7 and I’m scoreboard watching Tampa Bay and Baltimore. Things have unraveled quickly. I don’t think I will truly be nervous until the lead gets to two games (if it ever gets there), but the current state of the Yankees is enough to cause for a test of the emergency broadcast system.

With a month to go, what is your take on the state of the Yankees and how worried are you of the possibility of a one-game playoff, if you’re worried at all?

Strasser: The Yankees are an enigma. I have never seen a club traverse the spectrum of success quite like this year’s team. There are points throughout the course of the season when they coast through series after series with what seems to be zero resistance. And then you have the stretches of poor play when the Yankee offense channels its inner Astros and the lineup looks anemic at the plate. The Yankees are a team built to crush mediocrity. Aside from the game’s top-shelf arms, along with any double-A pitcher lucky enough to make his debut in the Bronx, the Yankees are a near-sure bet to put up at least five or six runs on any given night. But what happens when they run into the buzz saw arms of the Verlanders and Weavers of the league? Well, we’ve all seen it a million times. How many 4-1 or 6-2 losses can we take?

As demonstrated the other night in Cleveland, the Yankees live and die with the home run. In a game where they let myriad scoring opportunities slip through their fingers against Indians pitcher, Corey Kluber, they ended up pulling out the win with a late two-run home run by Swisher. I’ve never been mad about a Yankee win, but I’d be lying if I said that one didn’t infuriate me. The ball that Swisher hit not only cleared the right-field wall, but the team from getting questioned about their inability to manufacture runs as well. The big blast consistently overshadows the offensive woes. This is great for the regular season, but aces on playoff teams don’t generally give up the long ball. The Yankees don’t move the runners, they don’t play small ball, and they don’t hit in the clutch. So where does that leave them? A couple games behind the best record in the AL. It’s both perplexing and frustrating how a team can look so good on paper, but instill a much lower level of confidence on the field.

So you ask me how nervous I am for a potential one-game playoff? Let’s put it this way- I’m letting my fingernails grow out until that day so I have plenty to pick for all nine innings. My cuticles will look like a teen slasher horror movie by the sixth. It all depends on the pitching match up, but anything can happen. And that’s what scares me. Given the roster (and the payroll), the Yankees should have the edge over any team, but as was stated in Moneyball, statistics go out the window when it comes to one game. For the Yankees to have any sort of success in this year’s playoff run, it will come from one or two guys getting hot at the right time circa 2009 with A Rod and Matsui. And if that doesn’t happen, well, let’s hope for a relevant Jets team, because it will be yet another early round exit for the pinstripes.

Keefe: You said it all depends on the pitching matchup, but we shouldn’t worry because a wise man once told me in a podcast that “Ivan Nova will become a big-game pitcher.” Actually that wasn’t a wise man … it was you.

OK, maybe that’s a low-blow, but I don’t think it is since you did disregard Hiroki Kuroda, who I talked up on that same podcast and now he’s become the Yankees’ best pitcher. Before we go any further, I think you owe No. 18 an apology.

(This is ne waiting for your apology…)

Let’s continue and let’s say the Yankees don’t completely fall apart between now and Game 162 and reach the ALDS and that Andy Pettitte returns and is healthy enough to pitch in the postseason. Who’s pitching Games 1, 2 and 3? Hopefully they don’t need a Game 4 starter, but eff it, let’s put a Game 4 starter in there too. And I know we have talked about it before, but I think it’s important for an update since it changes all the time.

I’m going with CC Sabathia, Andy Pettitte, Hiroki Kuroda and then … umm … hmm … uhh … I guess … Phil Hughes? I would love to say David Phelps there, but we both know that’s not going to happen, and I don’t want Freddy Garcia anywhere near a playoff game again let alone on the postseason roster.

Strasser: Yeah, so I put myself out there with a bold prediction. Strasser took a shot, and you know what, Strasser missed. But at least I’m in the game. You’re sitting over there on the sidelines observing and reporting while I’m risking my reputation on a daily basis. You’re the douche bag with the combover in Good Will Hunting and I’m Matt Damon. I may be serving your fries on the way to your ski trip, but at least I’m original. So enjoy your bland perspective of watching and relaying, while I take a leap of faith and throw my heart into something I believe. I’d rather falsely predict something with 100% conviction than sit in the shadows and play it safe any day. I dare to dream, Neil. I dare to dream.

The postseason rotation depends entirely on the situation. It’s CC first, and then either Kuroda or Pettitte. If CC loses game 1 for instance, assuming a healthy Pettitte, I want Andy on the mound. He’s a big-game pitcher and going down 0-2 is a death sentence. I do owe Kuroda an apology, and I have gained a lot of faith in him, but the playoffs are a different world.

It also depends on the breakdown of home and away. It’s no secret that Kuroda is a better pitcher at the Stadium. That plays into rotation decisions, as well. Ask me this question when the ALDS schedule is set, and I’ll have a more definitive answer for you. Until then, Nova4Life.

Keefe: Being called the scumbag in the Harvard bar in Good Will Hunting is as bad as it gets, so move over “me wanting Ubaldo Jimenez last year” there’s a new low point in my life. And I don’t think it was a bold prediction or anything that out there since Nova did win Game 1 of the ALDS last year before getting pulled early in Game 5. So let’s hold patting yourself on the back for a second there. It’s not like you told me that CC Sabathia would go on the DL twice and Andy Pettitte and Alex Rodriguez would also hit the DL and Mariano Rivera and Brett Gardner would be out for the year and the Yankees would still be in first in the division. That would be something to be proud of.

The Yankees are in a weird spot with the looming luxury tax penalties. It seemed like a foregone conclusion that they would sign Robinson Cano and Curtis Granderson to long-term deals and let Nick Swisher walk away. But a funny thing happened on a way to that plan. Actually, it’s not funny. What happened is Granderson has become Adam Dunn-like and Swisher has carried the team offensively through August. (Granderson is still a great defender while I don’t trust Swisher on routine plays.) Now there is talk that Swisher wants Jayson Werth’s $126 million, which is unlikely, but he will at least get a solid deal given his performance this year and the weak free agent market.

It’s no secret that I’m not that big of a Nick Swisher fan, if I’m one at all, which I don’t think I am. I know it will all come down to what he does in October, which is likely nothing, but it seems more and more likely that Swisher and his phony personality and his disgusting arguments on called third strikes might not only be back in the Bronx for 2013, but maybe a few years after. And it doesn’t help that the Red Sox’ impending interest in him will likely drive his price up and force the Yankees to make a play for him.

If Nicky Swish (sorry to go John Sterling on you) finally hits in the postseason and the Yankees make a long run, that’s one thing. But if he fails to hit elite pitching for the fourth straight postseason I don’t want to see No. 33 in right field in 2013 unless the new right fielder also wants to wear No. 33.

Strasser: I like the idea of Swisher. What does that mean? Well, this. Fake or not, he helps the clubhouse – one that up until his arrival in 2009, had been publicly documented as stiff and stale. His boisterous personality is good for the team and even better for the fans. That being said, he doesn’t really do it for me on the field. Outside of this year, which so coincidentally happens to be a contract year, he hasn’t been anything special in my opinion. He targets the short porch far too frequently, often times resulting in a pop out to short when a ground ball to second would have moved the runner over.

If the Yankees commit the amount of money Swisher will want, and the basic fundamentals of supply and demand will allow, it will result in an overpaid outfielder clogging a spot that could be used for future acquisitions. I love his on-base percentage, I love his occasional power, but I don’t love his price tag. Let him walk.

Keefe: There’s going to come a time in October when Joe Girardi decides, “Hey, these people paid to come see me manage and insert myself into this game and not to see the players on the field” and he will likely turn to Clay Rapada or Cody Eppley to get a big out. Let’s just hope they get that big out.

The bullpen pecking order is all out of whack right now aside from Rafael Soriano and David Robertson. I think Boone Logan is probably viewed as the third-best reliever (that feels weird even thinking about let alone typing) and then it’s a mess between Cody Eppley, Clay Rapada and whoever that guy wearing No. 62 and pretending to be Joba Chamberlain is. I really only trust David Robertson out there even though Soriano has been great, and I don’t want the other three putting their hands on the game. Actually there might be one guy I don’t mind.

For some reason and I can’t explain this, I still have this thing about Joba in that I trust him. Or I want to trust him. When I see him out there I have flashbacks of the summer of 2007 and unhittable fastballs and devastating sliders. I see fist pumps and scoreless innings. In reality, he is basically Chad Qualls right now (actually he’s statistically worse). This pains me and I don’t want it to be like this, but the guy is also coming back from elbow surgery, having his appendix removed and a brutal ankle injury. I think he will find it, I just don’t know when.

Strasser: I’m pretty much in agreement with you on the bullpen issue. Robertson I trust, and Soriano I’m warming up to. Joba will hopefully come around because like you said, I want to trust him. I want to remember being at the first game he ever pitched in at the stadium (Section 434B … I splurged) and seeing the Bronx sky erupt with amazement at the spectacle we had all just witnessed. But is that guy still there, or are we just reaching for something that doesn’t exist like an image popping off the screen in a 3D movie? You know those a-holes swiping at the air in front of them … are we those a-holes, Neil?

You’re leaving out one incredibly important detail as far as playoff bullpen pitching goes. One man, three syllables: David Phelps. I loved this guy in the bullpen earlier in the season, and I like what I’m seeing from him as a starter. Throwing him back in the bullpen for a late September push and on into October could be that bridge the Yankees need to get to Robertson and Soriano.

Keefe: I forgot about your man crush on David Phelps and I hate to break it to you, but I think it’s a love triangle. That’s right, I’m joining this party, so I hope there’s room for three. I have loved everything Phelps has done for this team, and if he isn’t given a postseason start (which he very well could if he continues to impress and dominate) then he will be a huge addition to the bullpen.

You have told me that Raul Ibanez is your sleeper pick to be huge for the Yankees in the postseason, and I’m onboard with that decision. Ibanez has that “thing” about him that exudes confidence especially when the at-bats are the biggest the setting is most important. Granted, we could both be way off and he could have a Swisher-like 2-for-15 ALDS and the Yankees could be home in five games, but let’s just hope that’s not the case.

The other guy I think is going to be huge in October is Ichiro because of who he is and what he wanted out of going to New York to win and getting out of Seattle, the only place he ever knew in the majors. Ichiro hasn’t played in the postseason since Game 5 of the 2001 ALCS on the other side of the River Ave. Now he has a chance to chase that elusive championship, pick up the one thing missing in a Hall of Fame career that boasts a Rookie of the Year, MVP, batting titles, single-season hits records, Gold Gloves and All-Star Games, and a chance to earn a multiyear deal at the end of the season.

Why do you think Ibanez will be big in the postseason and what are you thoughts on Ichiro returning to October?

Strasser: There’s something about Raul Ibanez. He’s got that look. It’s a combination of focus, clutch, and ugly. The first two are going to be huge in October. Well, huge in my mind at least. In my mind, he has already hit two of those majestic moonshots to right in the first game of the ALDS. Okay, that may be a bit hopeful, but I really do get that vibe from him. That oddly unexplainable Jeterian vibe. But hey, I could be wrong. It’s happened before … cough … Nova … cough.

As far as Ichiro goes, I see him doing a lot of the little things for us in the playoffs. I’m not gonna sit here as a delusional Yankee homer and tell you that he’s going to rediscover his MVP form and hit .450 in the ALDS, but I do think he can provide some important benefits for the team. His baseball instincts are great, and sometimes a playoff win and the subsequent advancement to the next series can come down to one play. Whether it’s an astounding defensive play, some 2009 WS Damon-esque base running, or some other sort of contribution, I could see Ichiro having one or two “Yankee moments” in October.

My final prediction for the playoffs revolves around one of the most inconsistent cold weather bats in the league. No. 24 in your program and probably right around that number in our hearts, Robinson Cano has the potential to carry the Yankees to a ring. He’s just nonchalant enough to sleepwalk through a postseason line of .390 with eight home runs and 21 RBIs.

Keefe: Everyone keeps asking me if the Yankees can win the World Series, and I keep telling these people that I think they can. Right now there’s isn’t one team that really stands out in the AL, but if Pettitte returns healthy then a rotation of CC Sabathia, Andy Pettitte and Hiroki Kuroda is as good as any 1-2-3 punch this postseason.

But to win the World Series it’s going to take winning the ALDS first (and hopefully not the one-game playoff first). I think the Yankees’ best chance of advancing would be if the Orioles make the one-game playoff and win it. The Yankees have loved playing in Camden Yards since it opened and no matter the year or roster turnover, the Yankees continue to win there, and with the first games of the division series on the road, that’s a big deal. I don’t want to see the Rays since the Yankees can’t win at the Trop anymore, or the Tigers since they seem to have our number or the White Sox since the Yankees had enough trouble winning a game there last week, forget October. Even the A’s scare me with their starting pitching and the idea of going 3,000 miles for the first two games of the ALDS isn’t exactly enticing. Give me Baltimore!

Strasser: The best option for the Yankees to play in the ALDS is the not-Angels. I think the Yankees can really expose some of the weaknesses of the not-Angels and capitalize on their shortcomings. Seriously though, the one team I’m terrified of is the Angels. I have no idea why they aren’t running away with the West, but if they get into the playoffs, look out. Mike Trout is just young and naive enough to not even realize that he’s having this historic season that could easily carry into October. They are the one team in the AL I most certainly don’t want to face.

To be honest, there isn’t one team that I would sign up to play right now. If anything, it would be the Rangers and their mediocre pitching staff, but we all know what can happen when Josh Hamilton or Nelson Cruz gets hot. Still, if I had to choose, I’ll take a matchup with the Rangers and their antler nonsense.

As much as I bash the Yankees’ deficiencies, I think they will hang on to win the division. Pettitte and A-Rod are coming back, CC looks sharp after his 12th DL stint of the year and Kuroda continues to mock me. I don’t think Tampa has the offense and I’m still not sold on Baltimore, despite their success this season. I also hate Buck Showalter and refuse to give him any credit, but the O’s are a good team. Another scary group of inexperienced guys playing above their heads. Is “above their heads” an expression? If not, it is now.

Keefe: You want to play the Rangers? In real life? I don’t think I can even given you a chance to respond to this after that.

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Blogs • Email Exchanges • Yankees

Aug 13, 2012

Yankees and Rangers Share Identical Situations

The Rangers are in the Bronx for a four-game series and possible playoff preview and the meeting between the AL’s top two teams called for an email exchange with Adam J. Morris of Lone Star Ball.

The Yankees and Rangers haven’t met since April 25 in Texas when the Rangers took the rubber game of a three-game set early on in the season. This week the Rangers make their first and only trip to the Bronx for a four-game series, which will be the last four games this two teams play against each other in 2012 … unless they meet in the postseason.

Right now the Yankees and Rangers are the top two teams in the American League and are jockeying for position to stay out of the dreaded and nonsensical one-game playoff and trying to clinch home-field advantage. The Yankees still lead the AL East by five games, but some inconsistent play combined with a Tampa Bay winning streak has started to make things a little uncomfortable for the Yankees and Yankees fans in August.

Adam J. Morris of Lone Star Ball joined me for an email exchange to talk about the current state of the Yankees and Rangers, how they are very similar with their rosters and problems and the possibility of another postseason meeting between the two teams.

Keefe: I’ll never forget what Michael Kay said after the Yankees’ comeback in Game 1 of 2010 ALCS on YES’ postgame show. “I said it after Game 1 against the Twins and I’m saying it again … this series is over.” Sure, the Yankees had just completed an epic postseason game comeback against C.J. Wilson and the Rangers bullpen, in very similar fashion to what they had done against Francisco Liriano and Twins in Game 1 of the ALDS, and they had Phil Hughes (who shut down the Twins in Game 3 of the ALDS and who always pitched well in Texas) going in Game 2 against Colby Lewis the next day, along with all of the momentum on their side. It seemed like the Yankees were in a great position to head to the Bronx up 2-0 in the series. That’s when everything changed.

Hughes got lit up in Game 2, and would get lit up again in Game 6, turning in disastrous performances that mirrored Chien-Ming Wang’s awful 2007 ALDS against the Indians. The Yankees were shut down by Lewis in Game 3 and again in Game 6, and between those games, Cliff Lee quieted Yankee Stadium (again) in Game 3, and a combination of Joe Girardi, A.J. Burnett and Yankee killer Bengie Molina cost the Yankees Game 4. Even though the Yankees were able to get to Wilson again and win Game 5, as I was sitting in the Stadium for Game 5, it felt like a tease to extend the series. Even if the Yankees could take Game 6, Cliff Lee was waiting for a potential Game 7, and all he had done is embarrass the Yankees in the last two postseasons.

I said that everything changed for the ALCS after the Yankees’ Game 2 loss, but really it changed when they didn’t get Cliff Lee that July. Had the Yankees successfully traded for Lee, he would have pitched Game 2 of the series and not Hughes, and he wouldn’t have been available for the Rangers to shut the Yankees down with a two-hit, complete-game shutout in Game 3.

When the Yankees lost to the Tigers in last year’s ALDS, it sucked the way that the end of any Yankees season sucks. But knowing that the Rangers were waiting in the ALCS to likely walk through the Yankees again lessened the blow of losing to a Tigers team that the Yankees had a chance to beat every game if they could just get one hit with runners in scoring position.

Right now I look at the Yankees’ potential playoff matchups and the one that scares me the most is still your Texas Rangers for now the third straight year. I know Cliff Lee isn’t there and the vaunted (at least to Yankees fans) Colby Lewis is out for the season, but that lineup is as good as its been and the bullpen still boasts names you don’t want to see in the late innings.

As a Rangers fan, how do you feel about my fear of the Rangers? Are you as confident about your team as I am about not wanting anything to do with them this October?

Morris: I feel good about the Rangers’ chances in 2012. After the last couple of seasons, it’s hard not to have confidence that the Rangers are going to do well in the postseason. This is, for the most part, the same team that has reached the World Series the past two years. With Texas now up 6 1/2 games on the A’s and eight games on the Angels, we should be looking at having home-field advantage for the ALDS, and if they can hold off the Yankees, it would mean home-field advantage in the ALCS as well.

The biggest concern right now for Rangers fans is the state of the starting rotation. Yu Darvish was brought in to be the staff ace, and he essentially replaced C.J. Wilson. Darvish has been up and down all season, looking at times like a guy who is worth the $110 million the Rangers have spent and committed in the future to land him, while looking at other times like a guy who has no idea where the ball is going. Colby Lewis, who was slated to be the team’s Game 1 starter in the playoffs, is down for the year with a torn flexor tendon, and the team is going to miss his steadying influence. Roy Oswalt, given $5 million to pitch for a half-season, was bumped to the bullpen in favor of Scott Feldman, the guy whose job he was supposed to take. Derek Holland has been erratic, and there are still questions about whether Ryan Dempster can adjust to the AL. The team’s best starter has been Matt Harrison, a guy who was left off the 2010 postseason roster entirely. So the rotation is in flux, and while Texas will probably roll out four starters who won’t embarrass them in the postseason, they don’t have that legitimate No. 1 guy to head up the playoff rotation.

That being said, the bullpen is strong and deep, and the lineup is solid. There are concerns that the offense has gone into funks from time to time this year, but all in all, I think Rangers fans should be feeling pretty good about this team heading into the postseason.

Keefe: Well, when you put it that way, maybe I shouldn’t be so concerned with the Rangers. Then again, I have seen the Yankees struggle against even mediocre starting pitching in the playoffs to get too excited about the Rangers’ rotation issues.

I wanted to talk more with you about Cliff Lee because to me he has always been The One That Got Away, and the one that I believe was the missing piece to what would have been back-to-back championships in 2010.

After the Rangers went “all-in” for a chance to return to the postseason in 2010, and you swooped in to get Lee for Justin Smoak from the Mariners, I was devastated. I had woken up that July to a flurry of texts and emails about a report that the Yankees were close to getting Lee for Jesus Montero and the deal seemed to be at the one-yard line and just needed some t’s crossed and some i’s dotted. Obviously the t’s never got crossed and the i’s remained dotless, and Lee did what he did in Game 3, and put a dagger into the Yankees’ season. But I was reassured that he would be part of the rotation in 2011 before Ruben Amaro and the Phillies had to join the party as Jon Heyman’s “mystery team” and make a play for him. This move basically ruined the Christmas hype for me and led to me writing this.

This season, with the Phillies tanking, and rumors of Lee being available and placed on waivers, I thought this was the Yankees’ third chance to get Lee and fate along the lines of Matt Damon and Emily Blunt in The Adjustment Bureau. But with the Steinbrenner’s being serious about staying under the luxury tax, and the Dodgers’ new money trying to make a statement to the league, the Yankees lost out on the chance to trade for him or claim him.

I still haven’t gotten the chance to have Lee take the ball for the Yankees every fifth day, and at this point, maybe I never will unless something miraculous happens in the offseason. I want him now just as much as I did two summers ago when he joined your team. But I need to know what it was like to have maybe my favorite non-Yankee (before he torched them) pitch for your team.

Morris: Having Lee in Texas, even for a short period of time, was something special. He is an artist on the mound. I think watching him on a regular basis was probably like being a Braves fan in the mid-90s and watching Greg Maddux every fifth day. The weird thing is that the Rangers didn’t actually win all that much with Lee on the mound during the regular season, as he had some outings where he had bad luck with the defense or balls in play, or the offense wouldn’t score for him. But despite all that, when it came to be playoff time, I had no doubts that the Rangers would win with Lee on the mound.

I’m sad he’s gone. He’s a special pitcher. But at the same time, the amount of money that the Phillies committed to him is onerous, and I don’t know that it would be a good business decision to match that, given his age and the fact that he’s had a hard time staying healthy. His impeccable command is based on him being in terrific physical condition, and I’m worried that the nagging injuries that keep slowing him down will take their toll on him sooner rather than later.

Keefe: The Rangers’ rotation isn’t necessarily what it has been the last two years. But as a Yankees fan, with Andy Pettitte still rehabbing his ankle, CC Sabathia hitting the DL with an elbow problem that appears to be much more serious than Joe Girardi led on to believe and Phil Hughes and Ivan Nova being hit or miss right now, that leaves us with Hiroki Kuroda as a reliable starter. (Sorry, Freddy Garcia.) So it looks like if we meet in the ALCS for the second time in three years, it could be an offensive gongshow in two stadiums built for high-scoring games.

And that’s what scares me about the Rangers team. The lineup from top to bottom can go toe-to-toe with the Yankees’, and that’s always been the Yankees’ one advantage. Their mentality since 2004 has always been, you might outpitch us, but we’ll outhit you. And that idea has only turned into one title. Hopefully, CC will be fine, Andy will come back, and I won’t need to pray for A-Rod, Mark Teixeira and Nick Swisher to get timely hits in big spots with runners in scoring position.

As I look up and down the Rangers’ lineup, there’s Ian Kinsler and Andrus and Hamilton and Beltre and Cruz, and Yankee killers Michael Young, and the most-feared power-hitting catcher in the league in Mike Napoli. Over the last decade I had grown used to worrying about the Red Sox and their lineup and when David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez would be due up. There were other guys in their lineup that bothered me, but not to that extent. In the Rangers’ lineup, every guy makes me uneasy and this week at the Stadium (and possibly in the playoffs) that level of discomfort and fear will only rise.

As a Yankees fan, when Teixeira is up, I envision a pop-up. When Swisher is up, I see a called third strike in a full count. When A-Rod’s up, I see a long drive that would have been out in year’s past before his decline. Am I just thinking like this because I know these hitters so well, or are fans like Rangers fans petrified of the Yankees’ lineup? My friends that are Red Sox fans used to tell me they were scared of A-Rod and Gary Sheffield and petrified of Hideki Matsui, and I really only understood the Matsui thinking. Are you scared of the Yankees’ lineup, and which opposing players scare you the most?

Morris: I think the Yankees have an impressive lineup. Other than Robinson Cano, there isn’t one guy who’s having a dominant offensive season, but the Yankees’ lineup is solid from top to bottom, with no real weaknesses (other than maybe third base now that A-Rod is out).

Between the Rangers and Yankees, I think it’s just about a coin flip as to which team is stronger offensively. Like the Yankees, the Rangers are pretty solid top to bottom (with the exception of DH, where Michael Young has been drowning all season), and they have dangerous hitters throughout who can give you the opportunity for a big inning. If I had to pick someone on the Yankees who scares me, it would probably be Cano or Curtis Granderson. Both are quality hitters who (based on just my memory) seem to hit the Rangers well.

Keefe: If the Yankees do what I want them to do then Nick Swisher won’t be playing right field for the Yankees starting in 2013. As an impending free agent and with the Yankees set on staying under the luxury-tax threshold that is ruining my life, it looks like they will save money to make offers to both Robinson Cano and Curtis Granderson. Maybe they will try to bring Ichiro back if he continues to hit and doesn’t show signs of decline in the outfield or on the basepaths. But the one name that is the most intriguing is Josh Hamilton.

I really don’t think the Yankees will make a play for Hamilton, though I have said that about a lot of other big-name free agents that they decided to join and win the bidding on. But I think in Hamilton’s case, with his checkered past and problems with substance abuse, New York City doesn’t seem like the best place for someone who can’t have more than $20 in their wallet (even though that won’t even get you a sandwich and a subway fare in the city, let alone a beer) and for someone who needs another adult to shadow them. I can easily see Hamilton enjoying the short porch in right field if he were to call Yankee Stadium his home starting in 2012, but I don’t think it’s realistic.

How badly do you want Hamilton to remain a Ranger? And if he’s not back in Texas, where else could you see him ending up?

Morris: I’d like Hamilton to stay in Texas, but I’m expecting him to leave after the season. The biggest concern that I have with Hamilton is that I don’t think he’s going to age well. He has an extensive injury history which is worrisome, but his approach is also a big red flag. His tendency to swing at almost anything, whether it’s a ball or a strike, has generally served him well thus far, but it’s not the sort of approach which appears to be sustainable for a player as he gets older and he starts to slow down.

As great as Hamilton is now, I fear that his decline phase will be steep, and I don’t think that he’s someone you want to commit big money to for his mid- and late-30s. Eight years, $200 million is the number that gets bandied about, and he’s not going to get that in Texas.

I thought before the season that the Dodgers made sense, given that they are committed to spending money and want big names. I’m less certain that the Dodgers will be players on Hamilton, given that they’ve locked up Andre Ethier, and I don’t know that they want to have $60 million per year committed long term to a Matt Kemp-Josh Hamilton-Andre Ethier outfield, but I still think they’ll at least kick the tires. The Mariners, who have lost Ichiro, would also seem to be a good fit.

Keefe: I didn’t want Ryan Dempster on the Yankees and with less than an hour to go in the trade deadline it looked like the Yankees might be the favorite to land him and some places were reporting that in fact the Yankees were close to getting a deal done with the Cubs. But like Cliff Lee, your Rangers stepped in and traded for Dempster. But unlike Cliff Lee, I wasn’t disappointed that the Rangers stepped in.

So far out of Dempster you have seen why I didn’t want the Yankees to trade for an aging NL pitcher in his start against the Angels, but you have also seen why the Rangers made the move for him in his start against the Red Sox. I’m not really sure which Dempster you will see over the final six weeks or so of the season and the postseason, but I can only hope on Monday night at the Stadium, we get to see the Ryan Dempster that showed up to the AL and got rocked by the Angels.

What was your initial reaction to the Rangers getting Dempster? Were you happy with the move?

Morris: My initial reaction to learning we had traded for Dempster was mixed. The Rangers were in a position where they could have used a solid starter, but I didn’t see it as a need, and was concerned that the cost in terms of prospects would be too high.

But when I learned that the Rangers had given up just Christian Villanueva and Kyle Hendricks, and that Neftali Feliz was going to undergo Tommy John surgery and thus wouldn’t re-join the rotation, I was happy with the move. I would have liked a No. 1, but the price for would have been prohibitive.

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Blogs • Yankees

Aug 7, 2012

Postseason Pitching Fears

After Justin Verlander’s 14 strikeouts on Monday night, it’s time to start thinking about which pitchers the Yankees shouldn’t want to see in the ALDS this October.

I spend an unhealthy amount of time worrying about who the Yankees will play in the ALDS, considering the possibilities and doing hours of math involving the American League standings. But I have learned over the years that all the time I spend looking at the standings, matchups, lineups, rotations and history is meaningless and the stress caused by my obsession of picking a first-round opponent for the Yankees is unnecessary.

I can’t make the Yankees have the best record in the AL and put the Orioles and White Sox in the one-game playoff and then have the Orioles win that game so the Yankees play them. I can’t hope that the Yankees face the Orioles rather than the Rangers, White Sox, Tigers, Angels, A’s, or Rays. However, no matter what I want, it usually plays out the way I want as if I’m the subject of a Matt Christopher book, and it’s not always for the best.

Last year I wanted the Yankees to play the Tigers in the ALDS, just like I did in 2006, and it backfired, just like it did in 2006.

In 2010 and 2009, I wanted the Twins and it worked out.

In 2008, I hated baseball for the summer. I like to pretend that season didn’t happen the way the 2004 playoffs didn’t happen because of the strike. Remember the strike of 2004? That sucked.

In 2007, I wanted the Indians. When Johnny Damon led off the series with a home run, I had the same “This is too easy” feeling I had when the Yankees crushed the Tigers in Game 1 the year before. Chien-Ming Wang made me regret my decision to want the Indians in Games 1 and 4 (Paul Byrd helped me regret the decision in Game 4), and when Joba Chamberlain was sprayed down with bug spray for the midges (which we later found out was the opposite way to handle the midges and was basically the equivalent of jumping into a pool of sharks while holding steaks and having open wounds on your body) while Fausto Carmona/Roberto Hernandez kept pitching like nothing was going on (I think I actually saw him eating some of the midges), I knew the Yankees were effed.

We talked about 2006, so in 2005 I stupidly wanted the Yankees to win the division and they did on the final weekend of the season thanks to the head-to-head tiebreaker. But because of this, they had to face the Angels in the ALDS instead of the White Sox. Now the White Sox did win 99 games, but I think if the Yankees had faced the White Sox, I don’t think they would have lost to Jose Contreras, Mark Buehrle and Freddy Garcia (and an epic relief appearance from El Duque) the way the Red Sox did and I don’t think Ozzie Guillen is still a manager in the league because he wouldn’t have that World Series on his resume, which has to be the only thing keeping him employed. Then again, maybe the Yankees beat the White Sox, but the Red Sox beat the Angels and then beat the Yankees in the ALCS for the second year in a row and I’m off the grid for now almost seven years with no human interaction, or maybe I’m living in Iceland and doing whatever people do in Iceland, which I would think doesn’t involve watching or following baseball.

In 2003 and 2004 I also wanted the Twins and I got them. In case you haven’t noticed, the Yankees haven’t advanced to ALCS against a team not named the Minnesota Twins since 2001 when they came back from down 0-2 against the A’s in the ALDS. (I just checked and the Twins are 12 back in the Central and 10-1/2 games back in the wild card. This isn’t good for the Yankees’ chances of getting to the ALCS.)

Like I said, the amount of time I have spent over the years trying to figure the best possible ALDS matchup for the Yankees has been a complete waste of time. If I had put this much time into actual schoolwork over the years, who knows where I would be right now? Maybe I would be teaching advanced physics at Yale or working as an orthopedic surgeon and living in Greenwich? Instead I’m looking at Ivan Nova’s 2012 game log and wondering how the guy who went 3-0 with a 1.26 ERA in five starts in June has gone 1-4 with a 6.75 ERA in seven starts since July 3, filling A.J. Burnett’s 2010-11 role nicely.

On Monday night, Nova was bad again (5.1 IP, 11 7 R, 7 ER, 0 BB, 5 K, 2 HR) and the Yankees lost to the second-best pitcher on the planet (you’re welcome, King Felix). Justin Verlander turned in an eight-inning, 14-strikeout performance to beat the Yankees for the first time in three starts this season. His effort combined with home runs from Prince Fielder and Miguel Cabrera confirmed that I won’t be pulling to see the Tigers in the ALDS this year.

But if not the Tigers, then who? It’s too hard to say. The second wild card has turned the league into a five-alarm gongshow and there are currently seven teams within five games of a one-game playoff. When you factor in the three division leaders that leaves just four teams (Seattle, Cleveland, Minnesota and Kansas City) whose seasons are actually over. The Yankees could potentially play the Rangers, White Sox, Tigers, Angels, A’s, Orioles, Red Sox or Blue Jays in the ALDS. That means I really have nothing to pull for, wish for or root for. The second wild card has taken the Yankees’ first-round opponent out of my hands even if it’s always been out of my hands.

So since I can’t hope for a team, Verlander’s start on Monday night made me think about which pitchers I don’t want to see in the five-game series. And because Felix Hernandez’s career is being wasted on the Mariners, Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay are in the NL and Colby Lewis is out for the year, I narrowed it down to four starters that I don’t want to see in the ALDS this fall.

(List Spoiler Alert: James Shields and Jered Weaver are NOT on this list. If I need the Yankees to win an elimination game against “Big Game” James who has the most misleading nickname since my friend we call “Big Kinsel,” who is a 5-foot-10, 155-pound Asian, or Jered Weaver, who is a blood relative of Jeff Weaver, I’m more than confident. If the Yankees have to face either of those two pitchers in a must-win game, I’m “Coach Taylor trailing 26-0 at halftime of State” confident in knowing that the Yankees are going to be fine.)

4. Ryan Dempster
I couldn’t even type that with a straight face. OK, let’s be serious…

4. Doug Fister
This isn’t as much about Doug Fister as it is what he represents. Fister is the non-elite starter who possesses the recipe for disaster for the Yankees. He knows how to pitch; he isn’t going to ruin a game unless someone like Al Alburquerque (yes, he’s real, Mike Francesa!) gets called upon to ruin it for him; he isn’t going to maybe have it or maybe not like A.J. Burnett or Max Scherzer; he’s going to keep the Yankees off balance, throw strikes and not hand out free passes. Doug Fister represents Colby Lewis, Tommy Hunter, Paul Byrd, Kenny Rogers and Jeremy Bonderman and all the other starters that have beat the Yankees in the playoffs in recent years that you weren’t worried about losing to before the first pitch.

Find me a Yankees fan that thought the Yankees would lose Game 5 of the 2011 ALDS. When your back’s against the wall in an elimination game on the road with A.J. Burnett on the mound and you escape a bases-loaded jam in the first inning and go on to win to send the series back to the Stadium, you know you’re going to win. I knew the Yankees were going to win.

They didn’t win.

Yes, Fister lost the weird Game 1 at the Stadium last year and got charged with six earned runs, but four of them came on the grand slam that Alburquerque gave up to Robinson Cano. He bounced back in Game 5 of the series at the Stadium in a game no one thought the Yankees could lose. He was forced to throw 92 pitches in five innings, but only allowed one earned run on a two-out solo home run to Cano with the Tigers up 3-0 in the fifth.

Doug Fister reminds me of Cliff Lee. He works deep into games, doesn’t throw hard, has great location, doesn’t walk a lot of people and started to make a run at being an elite starter in his late 20s. When I hear “Doug Fister,” I think “Cliff Lee.” When I see Doug Fister, I think right-handed Cliff Lee. When it’s the playoffs, the last person I ever want to see is Cliff Lee, and that means I don’t want to see Doug Fister. He’s already gone into the Bronx and won when no one thought he could. When you survive an elimination setting in the Stadium, you earn the element of fear from me.

3. Chris Sale
Chris Sale is 23 years old. He has made 19 starts in the majors. He has never thrown a pitch in October. Those three things might make you wonder why he is on this list. These next two things won’t.

Chris Sale throws with his left arm. He has never started a game against the Yankees.

The real No. 1 pitcher on this list should be Any Lefty Pitching Against The Yankees For the First Time or Any Starter Making His MLB Debut, but since that’s not a real person, I couldn’t give the No. 1 spot to a general group of pitchers. Chris Sale is very close to being part of the group.

Sale has actually pitched against the Yankees before, but has never started a game. He has made three relief appearances, pitching 3-1/3 scoreless innings and allowing one hit with two walks and five strikeouts. This year Sale is 13-3 with a 2.59 ERA, 8.3 K/9 and 2.1 BB/9 and 12 of his 20 starts have been six innings or more with two earned runs or less.

Chris Sale means Robinson Cano and Curtis Granderson are less dangerous, Mark Teixeira and Nick Swisher get turned around, Ichiro is less effective and the short porch at the Stadium isn’t the same.

I don’t want to see an elite lefty or someone who doesn’t walk people against the Yankees. That’s Chris Sale.

2. David Price
David Price means Robinson Cano and Curtis Granderson are less dangerous, Mark Teixeira and Nick Swisher get turned around, Ichiro is less effective and the short porch at the Stadium isn’t the same.

I don’t want to see an elite lefty or someone who doesn’t walk people against the Yankees. That’s David Price.

Sorry, I didn’t want to plagiarize myself, but I had to.

Price has made three postseason starts and lost them all. However, those three postseason starts came against the 2010 and 2011 Rangers. His line from those three starts: 19.1 IP, 24 H, 11 R, 10 ER, 1 BB, 17 K. Again, we’re talking about the best offense in baseball in the Rangers, and not the most sporadic offense in baseball (especially in October) in the Yankees.

The Rangers would probably welcome David Price in Game 1 of the playoffs, but a power lefty against the Yankees’ lineup? I’ll pass.

1. Justin Verlander
You would think that after an eight-inning, 14-strikeout performance from the reigning MVP and Cy Young, I would want no part of seeing Verlander for a third time in the playoffs in the ALDS, and you’re right, I don’t. But if it happened I wouldn’t be that worried either. Verlander doesn’t put the fear of God in me the way that Felix or Cliff Lee do, but he’s right there.

In all honesty, I’m not as scared of Justin Verlander as I probably should be. The Yankees have beat him in in two of his three starts against them this season and they rallied to come back against him in Game 3 last year. In 2006, they would have won Game 2 against him if Mike Mussina didn’t cough up the game the way only Mike Mussina could.

I said I wasn’t going to waste anymore time trying to solve the Yankees’ potential ALDS opponent puzzle or trying to worry about pitching matchups and I meant it. The only thing I really need to worry about is whether the middle of the order will hit with runners in scoring position, and that’s not something I can change or something I should spend my summer worrying about. I have October for that.

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