fbpx

Tag: Philip Rivers

BlogsEmail ExchangesGiants

Giants-Broncos Means Manning Bowl III

The Broncos are in town for Manning Bowl III and that calls for an email exchange with Ian Henson of Mile High Report.

Peyton Manning might very well be the best regular-season quarterback in the history of the NFL. But when it comes to the postseason, Peyton is the second-best quarterback in his family. Eli Manning can always use the second Super Bowl ring to quiet his critics and his brother and the fact that he beat Tom Brady (which is something Peyton has had a lot of trouble doing) for both of his Super Bowls and Super Bowl MVPs. But when it comes to the direct battle of Manning brother supremacy, Eli falls short with an 0-2 record in the Manning Bowl (2006 and 2010). On Sunday, however, Eli has a chance to close the gap a little more on which Manning is the best Manning if he can upset his brother and the Broncos at MetLife Stadium.

Ian Henson of Mile High Report joined me for an email exchange with the Broncos in town for Manning Bowl III this weekend to talk about how confident Broncos fans are, whether or not they trust Peyton in the playoffs and what will happen this Sunday in East Rutherford.

Keefe: The last time the Giants played the Broncos it ruined Thanksgiving. The Giants opened the 2009 season winning five straight games and then immediately lost four games. They came off their bye to beat the Falcons in overtime in Week 11 and then made the trip to the Denver for Thanksgiving night. Broncos 26, Giants 6.

Eli Manning threw for 230 yards and Brandon Jacobs and D.J. Ware each ran for 27 yards and the Broncos’ 16-0 halftime lead was too much to overcome.

After that game the Giants lost three of their final five games and gave up 166 points combined in those five games, finishing the season 8-8.

This time the Broncos have a chance to put the Giants’ season on life alert in Week 2. After this game, the Giants go on the road to face the Panthers, who will be looking for revenge from their Week 2 embarrassment against the Giants last year and then to Kansas City to face Andy Reid, who knows the Giants better than any coach in the league, and his new team.

With the Yankees battling for their wild-card lives I was looking forward to Giants and football season, but is it possible that it might be in serious trouble on Sept. 15? What’s it like to have your team coming off the most impressive Week 1 win in the league in which you dismantled the Super Bowl champions and your quarterback tied a single-game touchdown record?

Henson: Up until 2011, in the Season of Tebow, I had never been to a Denver Broncos game in which they had lost (and I have been to a lot of games). The last time the Broncos played the New York Giants in Denver, I was there. My phone blew up after the Josh McDaniels, “I just want to win a f—in’ game!” I had no idea what people were talking about, they got it from the NFL Network, I obviously couldn’t hear McDaniels from where I was sitting. I never considered traveling to be such a big factor when I was younger, but I know from living in New York and Denver, that the flight is just about as long as it is from New York to Los Angeles. Brutal for a flight in which you’re taking off and landing in the same country.

I have to confess, I was 18 when I moved to New York City, I was too young to get into any bars, thus forced to watch games wherever I could. That usually meant at home, this is how I developed a kinship with the Giants, they were always on and unable to see Broncos games in 2001 in a bar made me develop an interest. I will cheer for the Giants in any game that does not involve the Broncos.

The last time Denver and New York met, the Broncos had traded Jay Cutler and a fifth-round pick to the Chicago Bears for two first-round draft picks, a third round and Kyle Orton. Orton had an atrocious preseason and had Denver fans begging for him to be benched in favor of Chris Simms. Fans hated McDaniels from the start; then the season started and the Broncos under McDaniels went 6-0 (including an overtime victory in which McDaniels beat his old coach Bill Belichick), the team went on to lose their next four games and in the meantime Orton got injured. Thanksgiving 2009, the Giants and Broncos game happened.

Orton’s first game back, the team was still in the playoff hunt, in a very weak AFC West. The Broncos went on to win against the Giants and the next week they whooped the Kansas City Chiefs. The Broncos travled to Indianapolis and Peyton Manning squashed what was left of Denver, even a record day by Brandon Marshall breaking Terrell Owens’ single-game catch record with 21 for 200 yards and two touchdowns did nothing. The Broncos picked off Manning three times, but Orton could not capitalize and in Week 14 the Colts had already secured home field advantage for the playoffs. Manning was always a Bronco killer, he has yet to prove that he doesn’t remain a Bronco killer.

In 2012, the Broncos were one of the best teams in the league, the Ravens weren’t. Denver easily handled a neutered Baltimore team in the regular season. The playoffs were an entirely different animal though, two overtimes later, the Ravens move on and the Broncos are sent back home. Tebow fans were commenting how he had gotten the Broncos that far, what was the point of Peyton Manning? Denver did not game plan for a single game in the preseason this year and as far as I can tell, started running scout team preparing for the Baltimore game in Week 2 or Week 3 of the preseason. Baltimore had no choice, no one could have guessed that Manning would throw seven touchdowns, but the only doubt anyone had was whether or not Denver could be over or under on the point spread.

It isn’t homerism to say that Denver is really good this season, that Baltimore game was without Von Miller and without Champ Bailey. The Broncos have replaced their running game with Wes Welker and Julius Thomas is scary good if he can stay healthy. Even Denver’s fourth string receiver caught a touchdown. It’s good for the week to be on top, but the Giants have ruined a previous Broncos perfect season before. In 1998, Denver was 13-0, came to Giants stadium and lost 16-20. New York killed the Broncos undefeated season and it was by less than a touchdown (a trend the Giants would be so famous for in 2007).

During our podcast, we neglected to mention that Eli has never beat Peyton. I don’t know how much that is coming up in New York, but as we are both aware, this may be the last chance that he gets. Peyton’s not likely to still be playing in three seasons when the AFC West and the NFC East meet again. I think that amateurs may point to the Giants shaky running game, but Denver shut down Ray Rice in week one. New York’s running game is a trap basically, Pro Football Focus pointed out that both Champ Bailey and Chris Harris were top 15 corners in the NFL last season, but if Bailey is healthy, it would probably be a better thing for the Giants. Harris will be on Victor Cruz, Harris spent the entire preseason and training camp pairing with Wes Welker and you have Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie back in his natural position and matched up once again with Hakeem Nicks. This is why I say Bailey is the liability. I think Denver is much better off with Tony Carter on Reuben Randle than Champ on Randle.

I see no way that Denver runs the ball though and if the game is a shootout they probably wouldn’t want to anyway.

Keefe: We neglected to mention that Eli has never beaten Peyton because who wants to bring up that sore subject?!?! However, the Giants could gave beaten the Colts and therefore Eli would have beaten Peyton if not for the phantom pass interference call in the 2006 game that left Al Michaels and John Madden in shock on the broadcast. So maybe it would be 1-1 if not for the call that should have never been called, but it’s not and Peyton holds the 2-0 advantage.

Eli does the hold advantage when it comes to championships, which is all that really matters, isn’t it? But you could make the case that if not for Pierre Garcon’s terrible drop against the Saints in the Super Bowl and the onside kick against the Colts to open the second half, Peyton never would have been set up to throw a game-clinching interception and he would be 2-0 in Super Bowls as well.

But since this has turned into an Eli-Peyton discussion, for the moment, and if championships are all that matters (and they are, especially for fans), then how do you feel about the Broncos chances’ this season? You saw what Peyton can do firsthand in the regular season last year and in one regular-season game this year, but you also saw what he could do in the postseason when he seems to come up short in the big spot (even if he isn’t responsible for the defensive coverage on Jacoby Jones). Knowing how good the Broncos are and how good Peyton is and can be and how weak the AFC West and AFC are in 2013, are the Broncos going to be there in the end, barring any devastating injuries?

Henson: I will point out that I hated Peyton Manning as a Broncos fan for every single season of his career up until 2012. I remember the game that you are talking about, but much like the Giants last two Super Bowls, it could have gone either way. Eli makes the play when it counts, twice now and probably once or twice more before he is finished with his career. The same could be said for Peyton in his Super Bowl loss, one miss throw to Tracy Porter and they lose, last season in the playoffs he tosses an interception to Corey Graham to end the first overtime. Three plays later, the game is over. Eli doesn’t do that so much.

The Broncos handled the Ravens and I don’t think that the Ravens are a bad team, I thought that the Cincinnati Bengals would take the AFC North, but they just got toppled by the Chicago Bears. I think that Baltimore and Denver see each other again in the post season. The parallels between 2012 and 1996 for Denver are too many, 1997 of course was the year the 0-4 (in Super Bowls) Broncos finally made it 1-4. I think this season, even without Peyton Denver can make a playoff run. People were quick to point out that the Broncos were on their third center and without Von Miller, but Denver just extended Manny Ramirez for two more seasons and Shaun Phillips (Von’s backup) has 2.5 sacks and is currently second in the NFL. Their depth is scary and the AFC is in shambles right now. Houston almost lost to San Diego, the Raiders nearly handed to to the Colts, New England? Name a receiver on the Patriots that is healthy and not named Edelman…

What is going to be interesting to me is watching Andy Reid’s Kansas City Chiefs vs. the NFC East. The Chiefs are returning 11 Pro Bowlers from last season, Reid, as much as people may dislike him in the NFC East, is a great coach. Give him Alex Smith, who doesn’t often make mistakes, Jamaal Charles and Dwayne Bowe … Pack that in with the fact that he’s been playing two games against every team in your division outside of his own team and man … That’s going to be fun entertainment. The AFC West may actually be the reason that the Giants win the NFC East this season. No one thinks the AFC West is worth anything, but look at Week One and how they handled themselves. I don’t know how long Terrelle Pryor will be a thing, but Mike McCoy won a playoff game with Tim Tebow, I think that he will be alright with Philip Rivers.

Speaking of Rivers, how do Giants fans feel about him?

Keefe: I have no reason to dislike Philip Rivers for any reason other than that he would have been the Giants quarterback, which I guess is enough of a reason to dislike him when you look at what he has accomplished in his carer compared to Eli Manning. It’s hard to justify not liking someone who has never really affected your team other than they would have been your franchise quarterback if things unfolded differently. It’s not like he’s David Ortiz or the baseball Manny Ramirez or Martin Brodeur or Tony Romo or Donovan McNabb or someone that has given you on-the-field reasons to not like them. I don’t like Rivers because had Archie Manning not made sure the Chargers didn’t draft Eli, he would have been a Giant. (It seems pretty stupid when you actually write it out.)

You talked about how the AFC West isn’t as bad as everyone might have thought before the season, but when I look at it I just see early-season hype storylines in Andy Reid succeeding in Kansas City, Terrelle Pryor being the much-needed franchise quarterback in Oakland and San Diego being revitalized and nearly knocking off Houston. I say “hype storylines” because these seem to be more for talking head shows rather than for real life. and it wouldn’t surprise me if all three of those teams were afterthoughts by the middle of October. (Though I’m sure it wouldn’t surprise you either.) That means the Broncos are set up to most likely run the table in division matchups and then would just need to go something like 4-6 in their other 10 games to reach the postseason and they’re already 1-0, so 3-6 now. I guess I answered my own question from earlier if the Broncos will be there in the end this year.

But there has to be something that worries you about the Broncos, isn’t there? Tell me there’s something you’re worried about because when it comes to the Giants I’m worried about just about everything. But I guess that’s Giants football no matter what year it is.

Henson: I am not a big fan and was even less of a fan of Brock Osweiler last season. Osweiler played for Dennis Erickson at Arizona State, Erickson when 6-6 and for fear of losing draft position to a new head coach’s offense Osweiler entered the draft in 2012. The Denver Broncos traded out of the Dont’a Hightower pick (Pats), then again out of the Doug Martin pick (Buccaneeers), back into the second round and picked up Derek Wolfe and Brock Osweiler. The Wolfe pick doesn’t bother me so much and may pan out to be a really good pick, but the Osweiler pick still can get me steamed. In picking up Osweiler, the Broncos missed on so many players that they had met with, scouted and knew to be good players. Denver wins the Baltimore playoff game with Doug Martin as their running back.

It doesn’t end there though, Janoris Jenkins, Bobby Wagner, Lavonte David, Rueben Randle, Coby Fleener, Russell Wilson, Kirk Cousins! Every one of those players could have been picked up instead of Osweiler and instead, they have Osweiler. Now, there was some PR material given out around draft time to attempt to smooth over Broncos fans and let them know that Osweiler would have been a first-round draft pick in 2013, but the Broncos got him in the second round in 2012. So, I hated the pick, more so than the player, but Osweiler looked okay in the preseason and I have no doubt that with Denver’s very easy schedule, he could win eight, nine games if the worse were to happen.

Everything that I was afraid of happened. Ryan Clady who covers Manning’s blindside is not 100 percent, Ramirez at center is really the 32nd worst starting center in the league, the running game sucks, Von Miller is out six games, Champ Bailey is probably out at least four games, Elvis Dumervil on the Ravens, Eric Decker sucking (three catches and a fumble) … I’ve covered a situation in which Manning is gone. The team just really isn’t reliant on who the players are for whatever reason. Look back at Week 1, the Broncos gave up 21 points on mistakes made by special teams and defense (Danny Trevathan’s one yard fumble celebration cost Denver seven points, turned into seven for the Ravens and Wes Welker’s punt return drop inside of the five-yard line). Jack Del Rio and John Fox have worked together two season (their first was the year Carolina went to the Super Bowl, Del Rio left to coach the Jaguars after that), both seasons their defense has been ranked second in the NFL. This is their third season, the team would be well off with basically anyone at quarterback. Who couldn’t throw to Demaryius Thomas, Eric Decker, Wes Welker and Julius Thomas? Now you throw Peyton into that mix and that’s 30-40 points a game, with a Top 10 NFL defense on the other side and one of the games best punt returners/kick returners.

I am really not this cocky about that team and I am sorry for coming off that way, I just got out of a Twitter conversation in which someone (I assume a 49ers fan) was letting me know that Colin Kaepernick is better than Peyton Manning. It’s hard to convince any Broncos fan that any new quarterback is anything other than a flavor of the day. We have witnessed Tim Tebow, through multiple seasons and see that two years later he is out of the NFL. That wasn’t Tebow winning as much as it was Denver’s defense and special teams coming through when it was clutch. Cue the 49ers, I’d like to say the Redskins too, but Mike Shanahan is an offensive genius and I think this year the Panthers could fit back into that mold. Ron Rivera has them with a stout defense again and Cam Newton just needs to air it out three to four times a game.

If the Giants are able to put together a running game, they can expose the Broncos up the middle probably. Wesley Woodyard (Denver’s middle linebacker) has just started practicing today (Thursday) and although he is good, he’s playing mike for the first time in his career and not at 100 percent. Denver would need to bring up strong safety Duke Ihenacho to assist and at that point Eli’s got the deep center over the top with only Rahim Moore to beat.

Another thing is the offensive play count, there has been much said about Philadelphia’s offensive play count, but Denver can demolish that. In the Ravens game, the Broncos only had 68 plays the whole game and exactly half of those came in the first half. In the third week of preseason, Manning had 33 plays in the first quarter and 23 plays in the second quarter (56 plays in one half). Philly had 77 in their entire game Monday night. I guess for the record in 2012, the average was 64 offensive plays per game. There are things in the Broncos arsenal that I don’t think that we will see until deep into the season, but putting up with a play count like that is going to be nearly impossible for any defense to deal with for long at 5,280 feet above sea level.

Then again, that whole thing is super hyped up. Patriots put up 94 offensive snaps in Week 1 and they damn near lost to the Buffalo Bills.

I see that you guys just put Dan Conner on season ending injured reserve, I am sure that doesn’t even really effect you though. You guys are so strong in your front seven.

Keefe: Another day, another devastating injury for the Giants. (And another devastating injury for the Yankees too as Brett Gardner hurt his left oblique striking out tonight and might be done for the season.)

Offensive play counts seem to the cool thing to care about and keep track of in the NFL now since it supposedly gives you a better chance to win. But like you said the Patriots nearly lost to the Bills (the Bills!) even with their high play total.

You mention the Giants running game possibly exposing the Broncos defense, but that would mean the Giants would have to have a running game, which they may not if Wilson is bad or fumbles again or if Da’Rel Scott plays or if Brandon Jacobs plays.

There is a lot at stake in this game. For the Giants, they need to bounce back off their six-turnover performance in Week 1 and avoid going 0-2. For the Broncos, they need to continue to prove they are the best team in the league and that Week 1 wasn’t just them taking advantage of a team rebuilding off a Super Bowl. And for Eli and Peyton it’s obviously much deeper than both of those things when it’s come to their personal rivalry, their family, their legacies and the perception of both.

It’s been almost four years since the two teams met and unless they meet in the Super Bowl between now and 2017, it will be another four until they meet again. What do you expect to happen on Sunday this time around in the Giants-Broncos meeting and the Manning Bowl?

Henson: Champ Bailey has just been ruled out for the Giants game on Sunday by John Fox. I don’t think that we were really expecting him anyway for this game and truthfully, no one is positive whether or not Bailey is needed at this point. Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie was targeted once in Week One, Joe Flacco sees Chris Harris laughing his ass off in Flacco’s nightmares. Tony Carter is one of the fastest players in the NFL and plays corner like he is a computer character on Madden who has been set to 99 everything and runs fundamentals perfectly.

Good news for New York is that Prince Amukamara is likely to play, I assume he takes Demaryius Thomas? And Eric Decker has already declared that he would have a better game, privately to Peyton Manning (Manning gives the offense drop statistics in their lockers after the game with that player’s name highlighted, Decker had four and a fumble last week).

Last season, Dennis Allen left the Denver Broncos as their defensive coordinator and took over the head coaching job for the Oakland Raiders. During Week 14, Allen’s Father passed away. The Broncos could have easily stomped on the Raiders, but instead turned in an incredibly conservative game and opted for field goals instead of touchdowns on four different scoring opportunities. Peyton threw for one touchdown and Knowshon Moreno ran for one off of a defensive fumble recover that ended on the Raiders’ two-yard line.

I say that story, to say this. I don’t think that anyone is going to run away with this game, if it gets to the point where Denver can offer a beat down, they won’t. The Giants are not the Baltimore Ravens. If the Giants are the ones to shift into fifth gear early, then of course Denver will attempt to keep up, but the Broncos won’t pile it on in New York. Fox used to coach there, Eli is Peyton’s brother and it’s an NFC vs. AFC game. What I do expect is for the Giants to get a turnover or two, because as bad as New Yorkers perceive David Wilson to be at fumbling, Ronnie Hillman is worse, off the top of my head, I think that he fumbled four times in the preseason, five, but one wasn’t given a red flag by the opposing coach like it should have.

Denver’s defense focuses on shutting down the opposing teams best player, so Victor Cruz may not have the greatest game, but Eli will have a ton of yards. Second-year undrafted linebacker Danny Trevathan (the one who fumbled the ball at the one-yard line, instead of scoring last week) has shut down nearly every tight end, including Jimmy Graham dating back to last season.

So, my prediction would be Broncos by two scores, unless they decide to feature Ronnie Hillman for some reason. Who covers Wes Welker? Mark Herzlich? Aaron Ross? Denver uses Welker as their ground game, a six-yard pass to Welker is just as good as a six yard run by Moreno, Montee Ball or Hillman. If you put Ross on Herzlich, how do the Giants account for Julius Thomas? It’s just too much for most, if any, defense to contain. The Broncos aren’t the 2007 New England Patriots, but Denver’s receivers are much better.

There is a huge amount of respect for the Giants receivers in Denver though, here is John Fox moments ago on your receivers, “Very formidable. Just their passing game in general — you saw what they did last week against Dallas, which is a very capable crew. Really, the difference in that game was turnovers, but otherwise offensively I think — in particular the passing game — they were right up there as far as top performances in the league.”

So there you have it, let’s see how many combined points this game can go for.

Read More

BlogsGiantsNFL

NFL Week 1 Picks

The NFL is back and so are the weekly picks. Let’s get the 2013 season started off on the right foot with the Week 1 picks.

Labor Day is the ultimate Catch-22. The summer is over and the days get shorter as baseball starts to come to an end. But the temperatures get more reasonable, baseball pennant races pick up with hockey just around the corner and it’s the start of football season. The last thing there, “the start of football season,” is the one thing that keeps me from staying in bed, putting my Cliff Lee Sad Song Playlist on repeat and just waiting for the first nice day of spring, especially after a summer in which the Yankees have put themselves in a position where they have to win nearly every game in September.

The first day of football season means the first day of picks, doing longhand addition on the back of bills to create wild parlays, figuring out how to track four fantasy teams without getting the “Stop running this script?” message on a computer, freaking out over a suicide pool in the fourth quarter of the first week, searching for some overseas site that has every NFL game available to watch if you just answer some survey questions, drinking excessive amounts of beer and eating foods that contain little to no nutritional value.

Football is back in my life and so are the New York Football Giants.

When I last left off with the Giants, they decided to try and save their season in Week 17 against the Eagles when their season was already over. The embarrassment of another second-half collapse and destruction of a 6-2 record completed by the blowouts at the hands of the Falcons and Ravens in Weeks 15 and 16 made me happy that football was going away for eight months. But it’s been a long eight months of wondering “What could have been?” had the Giants not gone into the same freefall they have gone into every season during the Tom Coughlin era with the exception of the two Super Bowl winning seasons. But when Carrie Underwood leads us into Al Michaels and Cris Collinsworth and the Giants and Cowboys kick off in the Big D on Sunday night, the bad memories of how the 2012 season ended will be erased (but not forgotten) and the hopes of playing in the last game of the football season will begin.

Football is back and that means so are the weekly picks.

Week 1 … let’s go!

(Home team in caps)

Baltimore +7.5 over DENVER
Week 1 is so hard to pick because there is nothing to go off of except what you remember from last season and everything you have been told and force fed in the offseason and possibly some preseason action if you actually watch preseason football. The only thing harder than Week 1 is Week 2 when all you have to go off is what you saw in Week 1, which could be completely off.

The defending Super Bowl champions are on the road to open the season because the Orioles are hosting the White Sox across the street from M&T Bank Stadium. That’s right, the fading Orioles are playing the 56-82 White Sox, so Ravens fans will have to celebrate their championship for the last time by watching on NBC or by spending thousands of dollars to travel to Denver for the game.

Last season the Ravens lost to the Broncos, 34-17, in Week 15 before beating them in two overtimes in the divisional round of the playoffs thanks to a 70-yard touchdown with 31 seconds left in the game and some terrible coaching and decision making form the Broncos.

So why are the Broncos giving over a touchdown at home on Opening Night to the defending champions? I’m not sure.

New England -10.5 over BUFFALO
Just for fun I took a look at the Bills depth chart to see what their working with in 2013 and it’s not pretty. Bills fans don’t like when anyone talks poorly about them or picks against them (even when a spread is involved), but even a Bills fan with the Bills logo tattooed on his neck (someone like this has to exist) or a Bills fan with the Bills logo tattooed on his bald head (someone like this also has to exist) would tell you that the 2013 season is going to be fine.

Pittsburgh -7 over TENNESSEE
I really, really, really don’t want to pick the Steelers at seven-point favorites, but then again, how can I pick the Titan to cover? I can’t.

NEW ORLEANS -3 over Atlanta
Last year the Saints season was over at 0-4 then revitalized at 5-5 then destroyed with a three-game losing streak. They were coming off the punishments from their bounty program and Sean Payton was suspended for the season. Saints fans haven’t had a chance to go crazy since their playoff game against the Lions on Jan. 7, 2012 and that was a long time ago. The Superdome is going to be a scary effing place on Sunday and it’s the last place the Falcons defense wants to be to open the season.

Tampa Bay -4.5 over NEW YORK JETS
With the start of football season comes “fan denial.” Every fan thinks their team is going to have a great year and no one wants to hear about the possibility of a lost season or being out of it before the end of September. “Fan denial” is prevalent around the entire NFL, but when it comes to the New York Jets and their fans it’s scary how out of touch with reality people can be.

The Jets are going to suck. They are going to suck in a way that when Rex Ryan is finally showed the door, the Butt Fumble might not be the most embarrassing moment that happened under his watch. But don’t tell Jets fans this. I have had some Jets fan friends tell me the team has a shot at the postseason if everything falls right and I have had others tell me at worst the Jets will finish 8-8. There’s no way to respond to anyone who could make themselves believe that, so I have just to nod my hod in agreement or say things like “Oh yeah, I could see that.” The key to handling Jets fans is to just wait them out. By Week 6 their season will be mathematically destroyed and they won’t be able to use overconfidence as a personality. Just wait them out.

Kansas City -4.5 over JACKSONVILLE
Somewhere someone who isn’t a Chiefs fan or a Jaguars fan is going to bet on this game and watch it in its entirety. Think about that.

CHICAGO -3 over Cincinnati
The Bears are the closest things to the Giants in the NFL when you look at their talent and ability to completely destroy a playoff-bound season. But when it comes to the Bengals there isn’t a team that has gotten as much positive attention and has had as many preseason predictions in their favor since the 2013 Toronto Blue Jays, the 2012 Kansas City Royals, the 2011 Boston Red Sox and every Cowboys team during the Tony Romo era. Nothing says “Letdown season” more than the 2013 Cincinnati Bengals if only because they are being picked to go play at MetLife Stadium in February.

CLEVELAND -1 over Miami
I keep hearing about how the Browns weren’t as bad as their record says they were last season and how close they were to being 8-8. The only problem is they weren’t. And because I initially picked the Dolphins to cover here and then switch my pick to the Browns like a ninth-grade U.S. History Scantron test, I know the Browns are going to lose and their offseason hype bandwagon is going to stall.

Seattle -4.5 over CAROLINA
Somewhere someone who isn’t a Seahawks fan or a Panthers fan is going to bet on this game and watch it in its entirety. Think about that.

Minnesota +6 over DETROIT
The way everyone says each season that three playoff teams could come from the NFC East can now also be said about the NFC North. And it’s time I think everyone needs to look at NFC North games the way they look at NFC East games (before the Eagles fell apart) in that every spread should be three points and any spread over that, you have to take the points.

INDIANAPOLIS -10 over Oakland
Remember when Matt Flynn was highly coveted because of one game (the final game of the 2011 season)? Remember when the Seahawks gave him $10 million of guaranteed money off that game and then made Russell Wilson their starting quarterback over him? And then remember when Flynn was traded to the Raiders two be their starting quarterback and lost out on the job to Terrelle Pryor? I always thought Matt Cassel being coached by Bill Belichick and getting to play with the Patriots offense in 2008 and then cashing in would always be the easiest way any NFL quarterback not named JaMarcus Russell would get rich. But then Matt Flynn came along and totally changed the game by having one good game.

It’s the Everyone Who Is In A Suicide Pool Is Picking This Game of the Week. And I guess it also should be the Anyone Who Is Doing A 10-Point Teaser Is Picking This Game of the Week.

ST. LOUIS -4.5 over Arizona
Somewhere someone who isn’t a Rams fan or a Cardinals fan is going to bet on this game and watch it in its entirety. Think about that.

Green Bay +5 over SAN FRANCISCO
I thought this line was high when I first looked at it in the middle of the summer long before the NFL season was in sight because why wouldn’t I check out Week 1 lines with the season months away? And I still think it’s too high especially with the entire world that isn’t all over the Broncos, Seahawks and Bengals being all over the 49ers when the Packers have the “best” quarterback in the league.

New York Giants +3.5 over DALLAS
The Giants have never lost in Cowboys/AT&T Stadium. (And did you think I would pick against the Giants playing the Cowboys in Week 1?)

WASHINGTON -4.5 over Philadelphia
After beating the Giants in Week 4, the Eagles were 3-1. After losing to the Giants in Week 17, the Eagles finished the season 4-12. A 1-11 stretch was enough for the Eagles to finally fire Andy Reid and try to give their team a much-needed facelift. The common theme this offseason has been that the Eagles won’t be good, but that Chip Kelly might be able to revitalize the team in his first year. Even if he can, it won’t happen in Week 1.

Houston -5.5 over SAN DIEGO
It’s disappointing that Norv Turner is no longer the Chargers head coach because I liked free wins with my picks. But I’m also happy that Norv is gone because this line would have been higher and more challenging had he still been the coach. I have been anti-Philip Rivers and anti-Chargers all along, so I’m not about to turn my back on my beliefs now even if Norv isn’t there.

Read More

Blogs

NFL Week 3 Picks

It’s Week 3 of the NFL season and it’s time for more picks despite an embarrassing performance last week.

I always wonder how veteran players on teams that are mathematically eliminated from the postseason (like the Red Sox, Mets and Phillies) get up for games in September when Game 162 and the finish line and the six-month offseason are in sight. Why not just swing at every pitch and give away at-bats? Sure, there’s the whole “integrity of the game” idea when you’re facing teams in contention, but come on, how do Dustin Pedroia and David Wright not just want to get home and forget about 2012? The answer is they probably do, but they are just good at hiding it.

I bring up that idea because I’m not sure where to find the energy and motivation after Week 2 beat the crap out of me like the members of the Free World beating up Rabbit in 8 Mile. Last week I wrote about how I wasn’t expecting a spectacular Week 2, but just something serviceable to keep me afloat so that I could figure out the league without falling too far behind. So much for that plan. I’m keeping these picks short and sweet and right to the point because clearly logic and theories aren’t working out.

Week 3 … let’s go!

(Home team in caps)

NEW YORK GIANTS +3 over Carolina
Well, I finally hit a Wednesday/Thursday game. (This pick was made on Twitter on Thursday.)

St. Louis +7.5 over CHICAGO
I picked the Bears on Thursday Night Football against the Packers last week. How did the Bears reward me? Well, here’s Charles Woodson Jay Cutler to let you know how the game went.

“Heard some talk out of the Bears: Packers secondary not working coverage, bigger receivers … we heard about it. We understand that Jay is excited about his new weapons, but it’s the same-old Jay. We don’t need luck; Jay will throw us the ball.”

It’s going to be a while until I trust Jay Cutler again. Not that I ever really did anyway.

DALLAS -8 over Tampa Bay
I don’t think the Cowboys are as good as they were on Opening Night at MetLife. I also don’t think the Buccaneers are as bad as they were in blowing the game on Sunday at MetLife. I also don’t think the Buccaneers are good, and it’s the Cowboys’ home opener. That’s how I got to this pick.

San Francisco -7 over MINNESOTA
I’m going to re-write what I wrote about the 49ers last week just so I can see it on paper and let it settle in that I could really think this.

“It can’t be good that I think the best team in the NFL is the one whose quarterback is Alex Smith.”

Detroit -3.5 over TENNESSEE
The Titans have been outscored 72-32 in the first two weeks. How is this line only 3.5?

Cincinnati +3 over WASHINGTON
The Redskins were supposed to get blown out at the SuperDome in Week 1, but instead they “upset” the Saints. I say “upset” because aside from the line, it wasn’t much of an upset. Then the Redskins lost to the Rams, while the Saints lost to the Panthers who were just embarrassed at home by the Giants’ backup offense. The Redskins might not be as good as their Week 1 win suggests because the Saints might not be good at all. But it’s going to take Vegas and the public a few weeks to realize this and then the Redskins will be the Redskins again. (My friend Ray, a Redskins fan, is probably going to punch me in the face on Friday night when I see him for ripping the Redskins for a third straight week.)

New York Jets -2.5 over MIAMI
I don’t think blowing out Carson Palmer and the Raiders is really that much of an accomplishment for the Dolphins, but I guess any win for them in 2012 can be considered an accomplishment since they should be right there for the No. 1 pick in draft. Well, unless Brandon Weeden has something to say about it.

I picked against the Jets and they won by 20. I picked the Jets and they lost by 17. They have handed me two losses this season. I’m going with them here for what might be the last time in 2012.

Kansas City +8.5 over NEW ORLEANS
It’s very possible that we’re a week away from the Saints starting to be part of the “Do I Really Have to Pick This Game of the Week?”

Buffalo -3 over CLEVELAND
The “Do I Really Have To Pick This Game?” of the week. I do have to pick it? OK. Go Bills!

INDIANAPOLIS -3 over Jacksonville
Andrew Luck covered for me last week at home, so I have to go with the hot hand, right? That and I can’t convince myself to take Blaine Gabbert for a second time in three weeks even if he covered for me that first time.

ARIZONA +3.5 over Philadelphia
Am I really picking a starting quarterback who started the year backing up a quarterback from Fordham and who is playing against his former team that didn’t want him? Yes. Yes, I am.

Atlanta +3 over SAN DIEGO
These might be the two non-NFC East, non-Patriots, non-Jets teams that I hate the most. I went against everything I believe in by bacon Philip Rivers last week (and it worked), but that was a one-time deal.

Houston -2 over DENVER
For the first time this season I’m going to pick against Peyton Manning. It feels weird and I don’t want to, but the Texans have left me no choice with two convincing covers in the first two weeks. Sorry, Peyton. I hope we can still be friends.

Pittsburgh -4 over OAKLAND
The Raiders lost for me in Week 1. The Raiders lost for me in Week 2. I’m not about to let them lose for me in Week 3. Enough is enough.

BALTIMORE -3 over New England
This isn’t so much about me thinking Baltimore will win and cover as it is me wanting New England to lose. If the Patriots lose, they will be 1-2 and if you thought this Wes Welker nonsense was media overkill, wait until the AFC favorites lose back-to-back games this early in the season. I can’t wait to read The Boston Globe and the Boston Herald on Monday.

Green Bay -3.5 over SEATTLE
I wanted to take Seattle last week at home against Dallas, and I didn’t, and I lost. I want to take Seattle this week against Green Bay, but I’m not going to.

Last Week: 5-10-1
Season: 12-19-1

Read More