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Tag: Peyton Manning

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Oct 4, 2012

NFL Week 5 Picks

It’s Week 5 of the NFL season and it’s time for things to turn around.

The same old Giants. That’s who the New York Football Giants are. A second Super Bowl in four years didn’t change who they were between Super Bowl XLVI and Week 1 against the Cowboys, so why would I think that back-to-back wins would change who they are before they played the Eagles? The Giants will let you down, build you back up, suck you back in and then pull the rug out of from underneath you and if two championships weren’t enough to change who they are then I just have to accept that things will never change.

I’m not sure what Eli Manning and Tom Coughlin and Kevin Gilbride were thinking when Eli threw a deep ball to Ramses Barden at the end of Sunday night’s game. It was almost as if they thought they were trailing by four instead of two and it was that play that led to a loss after they were bailed out by the refs to extend the game.

The Giants had a chance to steal a game in Philadelphia on Sunday night and they gave it away. Now they are 2-2 on the season, 0-2 in the division and have the only real easy winnable game left on their schedule this week in the Browns. A loss on Sunday would be as devastating as the loss against the Seahawks was last year before a series of improbable events led to the Giants winning the division at 9-7. If you believe in miracles happening in back-to-back seasons then you don’t consider Sunday a must-win game for the Giants. I’m not one of those people.

***

As for the picks, the NFL season is 24 percent over and I’m still in search of the elusive over-.500 week. That isn’t good. I have gone back to my roots and I’m stopping with the Thursday pick on Twitter and the rest of the picks on Friday. It’s time to shake things up and it’s Thursday for the picks going forward.

Week 5 … let’s go!

(Home team in caps)

Arizona -1.5 over ST. LOUIS
Any other year and this is the “Do I Really Have to Pick This Game of the Week?” But not in 2012 where te cardinals are undefeated and the rams are respectable. I got so used to just knowing that every NFC west game over the last few years was three point game an just take the points but not anymore. The NFC west is longer the worst division in football. That title now belongs to the AFC east

Atlanta -3 over WASHINGTON
The Falcons’ egg is coming. I can feel it. You can feel it. Everyone can feel it. I’m going to pick them one of these weeks when they lose and lose big and now it’s just a matter of correctly guessing when that inevitable week is going to come. It makes sense that it would come on the road against the Redskins, but I like it better to come next week at home against the Raiders leading into the bye week because why wouldn’t it come then?

Philadelphia +3.5 over PITTSBURGH
I feel like I’m picking between the same team here. I can either go with the Team That Lets You Down that is home or the Team That Lets You Down that is on the road. When there are points, take them.

Green Bay -7 over INDIANAPOLIS
If the game took place in Week 1 this line would be through the roof. The Packers are still dangerous despite what the first four weeks might suggest, and I’m not ready to give up on Aaron Rodgers’ covering ability yet.

NEW YORK GIANTS -8.5 over Cleveland
If the Giants can’t blow out Brandon Weeden and the winless Browns at home with their schedule then pack up the balls because this season isn’t going anywhere.

CINCINNATI -3.5 over Miami
The Bengals have been so good to me this year. I picked against them in Week 1 and I picked for them in Weeks 2, 3 and 4 and it’s all gone according to plan. I would feel like I’m stabbing them in the back if I pick the Dolphins to cover against them in Cincinnati. But at the same time, the Dolphins have destroyed me this season, so maybe I should finally give in and pick them? I know that WFAN’s John Jastremski will tell me how the 1-3 Dolphins could be 3-1 if two plays had gone their way and he’s right, but I just can’t do it because they’re still the Dolphins.

Baltimore -6.5 over KANSAS CITY
The 2012 Chiefs and I are done. We’re finished. I don’t even want my stuff back. Just don’t call me or text me. I want them out of my life. I’m not going to let them hurt me anymore. And it’s too bad too because I really like Romeo Crennel.

Seattle +3 over CAROLINA
This game was so close to being the “Do I Really Have to Pick This Game of the Week?” So effing close. The one thing holding it back is that the Seahawks may or may not be good (and probably aren’t good), but that decision hasn’t been finalized yet.

Chicago -6 over JACKSONVILLE
Chicago has been good to me and the Jaguars can’t change that.

MINNESOTA -5.5 over Tennessee
Tennessee Titans at Minnesota Vikings! You’re the “Do I Really Have to Pick This Game of the Week?” Congratulations!

Four weeks ago I never thought I would see the day when the 2012 Vikings would be giving anyone 5 1/2 points in a football game. Maybe 5 1/2 points in a PowerPoint presentation on how to set your franchise back at least a decade when you’re a field goal away from the Super Bowl, but not actual points in an actual game. But then again, four weeks ago I didn’t know the 2012 Titans existed.

Denver +7 over NEW ENGLAND
I interned for 890 ESPN Radio and the legendary Mike Felger in 2006-07. On Nov. 5, 2006 for the Patriots-Colts Sunday Night Football at Gillette Stadium in Week 9, I had to go sit outside in freezing weather as the ESPN Radio tent across from the stadium. The Patriots were 6-1 and the Colts were 7-0 and it was the height of the Tom Brady-Peyton Manning rivalry. People were insane for this game. The place was buzzing like I had never seen a regular season NFL game before and the scene hours before the game made it feel like a Super Bowl. It wasn’t buzzing because it was Patriots-Colts. It was buzzing because Peyton Manning was in town and Peyton vs. Brady will do that. Put these two guys on any teams and the atmosphere will be the same. It could be Patriots vs. Colts or Patriots vs. Broncos or Browns vs. Bills or Hoboken High School vs. North Bergen High School, it doesn’t matter as long as Brady and Manning are the quarterbacks. The Colts won 27-20 thanks to 326 yards and two touchdowns from Manning and four interceptions from Brady.

We haven’t had a Brady-Manning game since Nov. 21, 2010 in Week 11. It felt weird in 2008 when the Patriots played the Colts without Peyton and it felt weird in 2011 when they met again without Peyton.

This game on Sunday should be great. Well, really I just want it to be great because the Yankees are going to get the Sunday night slot and that means Giants at 1:00, this game at 4:25 and Yankees at 8:37. No, I’m not leaving the couch on Sunday.

Buffalo +10 over SAN FRANCISCO
What have the Bills done for me lately? Nothing really other than getting blown out by the Patriots, so I guess that has to count for something. In this league it’s risky to back a double-digit spread, but is it a good idea to take the Bills on the West Coast against maybe the best home team in football after being embarrassed by the Patriots last week? Of course not. But when have I ever been one for good ideas when it comes to NFL picks? But where has reason and logic gotten anyone in the 2012 NFL?

NEW ORLEANS -3.5 over San Diego
Drew Brees and the Saints have nothing left to play for at 0-4 except for his touchdown streak. Saints fans know that their season is over, so if they’re going to bring their “A” game again in 2012 it’s going to come on Sunday night against the Chargers for this record. It’s not like I needed a reason to pick against the Chargers, but this is one.

Houston -9 over NEW YORK JETS
Getting nine points at home on Monday night football isn’t a good look. Th Jets’ season is in turmoil even more so than it has been in any other year under Rex Ryan and everyone is starting to find out that maybe Mike Tannenbaum isn’t the “smart SOB” he called himself in Hard Knocks two years ago.

Last Week: 7-8-0
Season: 27-35-1

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Sep 28, 2012

NFL Week 4 Picks

It’s Week 4 of the NFL season and there hasn’t been an over-.500 week yet.

Sunday Night Football is the best. It’s not always actually the best game of the week, but it’s the best game to be a part of. It’s the best time slot, on the best broadcast with the best broadcasters and the best theme song (though Thursday Night Football is right there) and the best open (which is most likely by default). The Giants get to play on Sunday Night Football this Sunday night in Philadelphia for the first of just two times this season and I’m ecstatic.

Giants-Eagles games are in a select group of regular season matchups for my teams that also includes Yankees-Red Sox, Giants-Cowboys, Rangers-Devils and Rangers-Flyers. Even though others would disagree I would also put Yankees-Mets in there even if the Mets aren’t good and it’s interleague play and I would put Rangers-Bruins in there too even if it’s just a New York-Boston thing and not a divisional thing. That means that in a normal year, this would be one of four marquee matchups for the Giants, but because of their relentless schedule, they will also play the 49ers, Steelers, Packers, Falcons and Ravens. (The Saints were part of that list three weeks ago.)

This will be the Giants’ fourth game of the season. So far they have played on Wednesday night, Sunday afternoon and Thursday night. They have had 11 full days off in between Weeks 1 and 2 and three full days off and Weeks 2 and 3, and they will have had 10 full days off between Weeks 3 and 4. There has been nothing routine or normal about their schedule to this point. After Sunday night they will have played two primetime games and they still have Sunday Night Football against the Packers in Week 12 after the bye week and then Monday Night Football in Washington in Week 13. But after Sunday night, the G-Men will play their next six games before their bye on Sunday at either 1:00 or 4:25, so things gets more routine. However, they don’t get any easier.

After the Giants play the Browns next week, seven of their 11 remaining games will be against 2011 playoff teams and the other four will be against the NFC East (Washington twice and Dallas and Philadelphia once). This game on Sunday night in Philadelphia in front of the most hostile of stadiums is important anyway, but it’s even more so because of what the Giants will endure over the following 13 weeks.

Week 4 … let’s go!

(Home team in caps)

BALTIMORE -12 over Cleveland
In night games on Wednesday, Thursday, Sunday and Monday, I’m now 4-6. That’s not good.

New England -4 over BUFFALO
The Patriots are 1-2. I thought “the Patriots never lose at home,” but they lost to the Cardinals at home and I thought “the Patriots never lose back-to-back games?” Oh, yeah those were the two theories that were debunked last year when the Giants beat them at home and when they lost back-to-back games to the Steelers and Giants. And then there was the theory that Gresh and Zo called me out for on 98.5 The Sports Hub in Boston saying that “the Patriots never lose to the same team twice in one season.” The Giants proved that theory wrong too.

In 2004, when I was a freshman in college, the Patriots would have won in Week 2 against the Cardinals and Week 3 against the Ravens. There’s no question in my mind. During the height of the Patriots dynasty they always won close games where they had a chance to seal the deal in the final minutes. It was as much of a guarantee as there is in professional sports. But we are far removed from the 2004 Patriots. Since their Super Bowl win over the Eagles, they have reached the postseason in six of seven years, but have lost in the divisional round to the Broncos, lost in the AFC Championship to the Colts, lost in the Super Bowl to the Giants, missed the playoffs with Tom Brady out for the year, lost in the wild-card round to the Ravens, lost in the divisional round to the Jets and lost in the Super Bowl to the Giants.

This year the Patriots were being penciled in for 13-14 wins all over the place thanks to another easy schedule because of the weak AFC East, but that’s no longer likely unless they find a way to go 13-0 or 12-1 the rest of the way.

As much as I desperately want the Patriots to fall to 1-3 leading into a week in which arguably the worst Red Sox season in franchise history comes to an end in the Bronx, I don’t think the Patriots are going do anything or than destroy the Bills this Sunday. Let’s hope I’m wrong.

DETROIT -4 over Minnesota
I don’t know what to make of the 1-2 Lion,s who lost to the Titans or the 1-2 Vikings, who beat the 49ers. It’s all very confusing, but that’s the way things are in the NFL in 2012. If Matthew Stafford plays I feel confident with this pick. If he doesn’t, I still feel confident since Shaun Hill has screwed me in the past, so he owes me one. Or two. Or 10.

ATLANTA -7 over Carolina
The Falcons are due for a letdown. Especially since they are one of only one of two remaining undefeated teams and because they’re the Falcons and that’s what they do. That letdown could very well come this week, but I’m not about to back the Panthers whose only win came against the winless Saints and who were just embarrassed 36-7 by the Giants. Not even the extra days to prepare could change my mind on a team whose quarterback threw three interceptions and then said, “It was nothing they did, it was all on us.”

San Francisco -4.5 over NEW YORK JETS
Rex Ryan isn’t ruling out Darrelle Revis’ return in the 2012 season in the event the Jets make the Super Bowl. I didn’t make that sentence up. He really said it.

“Let’s see what happens when he goes through surgery, because if there’s that 0.0002 percent chance that he can play in the Super Bowl, why would you take the option away from him?”

It’s obvious that Rex Ryan doesn’t live in real life with the rest of us and after a couple years of Super Bowl guarantees and the promise that he wouldn’t make outrageous claims anymore, I thought Rex was really over it. Shame on me for believing him. The idea of tossing a Jets’ Super Bowl reference into a press conference has just been waiting to slip out of his mouth since training camp and he finally got the opportunity to toss it out there and he did.

KANSAS CITY +1 over San Diego
The Chiefs gave up 75 points in the first two weeks and then needed overtime to beat the helpless and winless Saints. So why am I picking them here? The same reason that Joe Girardi keeps starting Andruw Jones against left-handed pitchers. For no reason of all of course!

HOUSTON -12 over Tennessee
12 points is a lot. And if the first three weeks and the Thursday game this week have taught us anything, it’s that it’s really hard to cover 12-point spreads in this league. But if there’s a team right now capable of covering 12, it’s the Texans. And if there’s a team capable of not covering 12, it’s the Titans.

ST. LOUIS +3 over Seattle
Here’s what I wrote last week about the Seahawks.

“I wanted to take Seattle last week at home against Dallas, and I didn’t, and I lost. I want to take Seattle this week against Green Bay, but I’m not going to.”

Now did I know that the refs were like gambling on the game and that’s why they let the Seahawks hang around with bad calls down the stretch before giving the game on the most controversial ruling since the Steelers-Chargers game in 2008? No, otherwise I would have went with my first instinct and picked the Seahawks. The Football Gods can’t be happy about what the replacements refs did to the sport last Monday night and because of it, picking for the Seahawks here is probably a terrible idea since Pete Carroll probably didn’t take time to plan for the Rams since he was too busy running around Qwest Field like he had just won the Super Bowl.

ARIZONA -5.5 over Miami
The Cardinals are going to lay an A.J. Burnett-like egg here at some point. It makes sense that it would come against the Dolphins in a league where the Saints are 0-3, the Packers and Patriots are 1-2 and the 49ers lose to the Vikings.

Oakland +7 over DENVER
Despite all this talk about how bad Peyton Manning’s velocity is, I still expect him to find it and for the Broncos to be in the postseason. But right now, I have to take the Raiders to cover in Denver. (I regret this pick with each word typed.)

Cincinnati -1 over JACKSONVILLE
This line feels a little low and therefore a little sketchy. Oh, well.

GREEN BAY PACKERS -7.5 over New Orleans
The Packers are 1-2. Aaron Rodgers has three touchdowns, two interceptions and 745 yards through three games. The Packers are averaging 19 points per game. Is this real life? If this is real life then Aaron Rodgers is about to return to MVP form following a game that was stolen from the Packers by the refs and put the Saints in an 0-4 hole and end their season before Oct. 1. Lambeau Field is the last place the Saints want to be on Sunday.

TAMPA BAY -2 over Washington
It’s the “Do I Really Have to Pick This Game of the Week?” It’s good to see the Redskins back in it after their impressive performance in Week 1. Or what we thought was an impressive performance when it was really just a win against a bad Saints team. Welcome back, Washington! It’s been a long two weeks thinking that you might be good this year.

NEW YORK GIANTS +2 over Philadelphia
The Eagles are vulnerable right now. They won in Cleveland by one point in the final seconds, won in Baltimore by one point in the final seconds and then lost in Arizona. Michael Vick has thrown for three touchdowns and six interceptions and there is talk that he might not be the starting quarterback for much longer.

The Giants were outscored 48-30 in the first six quarters this season. In the last six quarters they have outscored their opponents 64-17. Somehow, despite winning their second Super Bowl in four years they are still underrated and under the radar. The Eagles, on the other hand, are still getting respect around the league and from Vegas for accomplishing nothing.

Chicago +3.5 over DALLAS
The idea of Jay Cutler avoiding DeMarcus Ware on Monday Night Football scares me. The idea of Jay Cutler as a whole scares me, but I think this matchup is close enough that I have to take the points.

Last Week: 8-8-0
Season: 20-27-1

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Sep 21, 2012

NFL Week 3 Picks

It’s Week 3 of the NFL season and it’s time for more picks despite an embarrassing performance last week.

I always wonder how veteran players on teams that are mathematically eliminated from the postseason (like the Red Sox, Mets and Phillies) get up for games in September when Game 162 and the finish line and the six-month offseason are in sight. Why not just swing at every pitch and give away at-bats? Sure, there’s the whole “integrity of the game” idea when you’re facing teams in contention, but come on, how do Dustin Pedroia and David Wright not just want to get home and forget about 2012? The answer is they probably do, but they are just good at hiding it.

I bring up that idea because I’m not sure where to find the energy and motivation after Week 2 beat the crap out of me like the members of the Free World beating up Rabbit in 8 Mile. Last week I wrote about how I wasn’t expecting a spectacular Week 2, but just something serviceable to keep me afloat so that I could figure out the league without falling too far behind. So much for that plan. I’m keeping these picks short and sweet and right to the point because clearly logic and theories aren’t working out.

Week 3 … let’s go!

(Home team in caps)

NEW YORK GIANTS +3 over Carolina
Well, I finally hit a Wednesday/Thursday game. (This pick was made on Twitter on Thursday.)

St. Louis +7.5 over CHICAGO
I picked the Bears on Thursday Night Football against the Packers last week. How did the Bears reward me? Well, here’s Charles Woodson Jay Cutler to let you know how the game went.

“Heard some talk out of the Bears: Packers secondary not working coverage, bigger receivers … we heard about it. We understand that Jay is excited about his new weapons, but it’s the same-old Jay. We don’t need luck; Jay will throw us the ball.”

It’s going to be a while until I trust Jay Cutler again. Not that I ever really did anyway.

DALLAS -8 over Tampa Bay
I don’t think the Cowboys are as good as they were on Opening Night at MetLife. I also don’t think the Buccaneers are as bad as they were in blowing the game on Sunday at MetLife. I also don’t think the Buccaneers are good, and it’s the Cowboys’ home opener. That’s how I got to this pick.

San Francisco -7 over MINNESOTA
I’m going to re-write what I wrote about the 49ers last week just so I can see it on paper and let it settle in that I could really think this.

“It can’t be good that I think the best team in the NFL is the one whose quarterback is Alex Smith.”

Detroit -3.5 over TENNESSEE
The Titans have been outscored 72-32 in the first two weeks. How is this line only 3.5?

Cincinnati +3 over WASHINGTON
The Redskins were supposed to get blown out at the SuperDome in Week 1, but instead they “upset” the Saints. I say “upset” because aside from the line, it wasn’t much of an upset. Then the Redskins lost to the Rams, while the Saints lost to the Panthers who were just embarrassed at home by the Giants’ backup offense. The Redskins might not be as good as their Week 1 win suggests because the Saints might not be good at all. But it’s going to take Vegas and the public a few weeks to realize this and then the Redskins will be the Redskins again. (My friend Ray, a Redskins fan, is probably going to punch me in the face on Friday night when I see him for ripping the Redskins for a third straight week.)

New York Jets -2.5 over MIAMI
I don’t think blowing out Carson Palmer and the Raiders is really that much of an accomplishment for the Dolphins, but I guess any win for them in 2012 can be considered an accomplishment since they should be right there for the No. 1 pick in draft. Well, unless Brandon Weeden has something to say about it.

I picked against the Jets and they won by 20. I picked the Jets and they lost by 17. They have handed me two losses this season. I’m going with them here for what might be the last time in 2012.

Kansas City +8.5 over NEW ORLEANS
It’s very possible that we’re a week away from the Saints starting to be part of the “Do I Really Have to Pick This Game of the Week?”

Buffalo -3 over CLEVELAND
The “Do I Really Have To Pick This Game?” of the week. I do have to pick it? OK. Go Bills!

INDIANAPOLIS -3 over Jacksonville
Andrew Luck covered for me last week at home, so I have to go with the hot hand, right? That and I can’t convince myself to take Blaine Gabbert for a second time in three weeks even if he covered for me that first time.

ARIZONA +3.5 over Philadelphia
Am I really picking a starting quarterback who started the year backing up a quarterback from Fordham and who is playing against his former team that didn’t want him? Yes. Yes, I am.

Atlanta +3 over SAN DIEGO
These might be the two non-NFC East, non-Patriots, non-Jets teams that I hate the most. I went against everything I believe in by bacon Philip Rivers last week (and it worked), but that was a one-time deal.

Houston -2 over DENVER
For the first time this season I’m going to pick against Peyton Manning. It feels weird and I don’t want to, but the Texans have left me no choice with two convincing covers in the first two weeks. Sorry, Peyton. I hope we can still be friends.

Pittsburgh -4 over OAKLAND
The Raiders lost for me in Week 1. The Raiders lost for me in Week 2. I’m not about to let them lose for me in Week 3. Enough is enough.

BALTIMORE -3 over New England
This isn’t so much about me thinking Baltimore will win and cover as it is me wanting New England to lose. If the Patriots lose, they will be 1-2 and if you thought this Wes Welker nonsense was media overkill, wait until the AFC favorites lose back-to-back games this early in the season. I can’t wait to read The Boston Globe and the Boston Herald on Monday.

Green Bay -3.5 over SEATTLE
I wanted to take Seattle last week at home against Dallas, and I didn’t, and I lost. I want to take Seattle this week against Green Bay, but I’m not going to.

Last Week: 5-10-1
Season: 12-19-1

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Sep 13, 2012

NFL Week 2 Picks

It’s Week 2 of the NFL season and the picks only get harder from here.

Can you have a must-win game in Week 2? Yes, you can because the Giants do.

After this week’s game against the Buccaneers, the Giants play the Panthers on Thursday Night Football, and after that, it’s all downhill schedule-wise except for Week 5 against Brandon Weeden’s Browns. After Week 3, they will have five NFC East games left, seven games against 2011 playoff team and then of course the Browns in Week 5. (For some reason I have this feeling that Weeden won’t be the Browns’ quarterback by Week 5.)

I have gotten over last week’s Opening Night disaster though the Yankees are trying their best to keep me down and I have moved on to the Buccaneers, who are one of only three “easy” games on the Giants’ schedule now that it appears the Redskins are for real for the first time since 2007.

Last week, I warned about what happens for the Week 2 lines and how perception shifts and changes. It was only a week ago we thought the Giants would finally be an all-passing team, the Redskins still sucked, the Bills might finish a season with a playoff game, the Jets would be a joke and the Packers would be out to avenge their 15-1 season and early playoff exit. All of these things might still be true and could still happen, but all we have is one game and one week of play to go off of, as does Vegas.

I took plenty of tests in my day where I sat down, started reading through the questions and didn’t know the answer to a single one. I’m sure we all had this happen at one point. (Well, I hope I’m not the only one or I will feel terrible.) So what did I do? I started writing, made things wordy, made things up and put together a test full of 100-percent BS. I knew I wasn’t going to get an A on it, but I wasn’t looking for an A either. I was looking to salvage my grade and weather the storm and just survive the class and not fail. In Week 2, I’m not looking to go 15-1 or even 12-4. I’m trying to stay afloat until I can make more sense out of the 2012 season and how good or bad each team is.

Week 2 … let’s go!

(Home team in caps)

Chicago +5.5 over GREEN BAY
There are probably a lot of people that want their “Packers in the Super Bowl” predictions back right about now. Last year’s 15-1 and defending champion team doesn’t look like it’s back for 2012. The offensive line has holes and the defense let Alex Smith complete 20 of his 26 pass attempts and throw for two touchdowns and Frank Gore run for 112 yards on just 16 carries. And I don’t think we even need to get into the Packers’ running game and Cedric Benson.

Not only do the Packers not look like the team that went 15-1 and then lost their first playoff game, but they have now lost back-to-back games at Lambeau Field with the loss to the 49ers and the playoff loss to the Giants. Before the playoff loss in January, their last home loss was on Oct. 17, 2010 against the Dolphins in Week 6. Their last home loss before that? Nov. 1, 2009 against the Vikings in Week 8.

There’s a good chance the Packers make me pay for picking the Bears, but until they show me something in 2012, I can’t be giving away 5 1/2 points to a division rival.

NEW YORK GIANTS -7.5 over Tampa Bay
If the Giants can’t blow the Bucs out at home after a Week 1 embarrassment then I’m going to need a hobby this fall and winter if there’s no NHL.

NEW ENGLAND -14 over Arizona
If the Patriots were favored by 21 points in this one I would still take.

The last time the cardinals went to Foxboro, I took the Cardinals. They lost 47-7 to Matt Cassel’ Patriots. Sure, that was nearly four years ago and neither team is even close to being the same, but that loss scarred me when it comes to trusting the Cardinals away from home and like the Packers, the Patriots don’t lose at home (unless they’re playing the Giants.)

INDIANAPOLIS -1.5 over Minnesota
The “Do I Have To Pick This Game of the Week?” Last week we had two of these games with Seattle-Arizona and Carolina-Tampa Bay. Next week we have Buffalo-Cleveland and Jacksonville-Indianapolis. (It’s weird that because of one Redskins game I’m not putting the Washington-St. Louis game in this paragraph.)

New Orleans -3 over CAROLINA
Last year the difference between the Saints at home and the Saints on the road was like the difference between Tara Reid in 1999 and Tara Reid in 2009. But the Saints no longer seem to be the hot blonde in American Pie and are now that girl that was in American Pie, but had a liposculpting procedure that went wrong. Even though the Saints were embarrassed at home by the Redskins, the Panthers scored 10 points against the Buccaneers and I can’t erase that from my memory.

Kansas City +3 over BUFFALO
There’s a good chance that if this game were played in three more weeks it would be a “Do I Really Have to Pick This Game of the Week?” But because perception is that the Chiefs and Bills are supposed to be playoff bubble teams, this game isn’t ready to be classified as a joke yet. Then again, these teams allowed a combined 88 points last week, so maybe we’re already there.

Baltimore +2 over PHILADELPHIA
When I thought of Joe Flacco between the AFC Championship Game and Week 1, I thought of an old vet who just wasn’t good and that was because of ridiculous facial hair last season. I still knew he was a 27-year-old who had been to two AFC Championship Games, but that facial hair really screwed with my head. All offseason I kept hearing about how he was going to have a big year and could receive “elite” status and I laughed because of his appearance and not his abilities. Then on Monday Night Football he looks like 2008-2010 Joe Flacco, throws for 299 yards and two touchdowns.

Oh yeah, the Eagles beat the Browns by one point and Michael Vick threw four picks. Let me trust him right away!

Oakland -2.5 over MIAMI
The Raiders’ blocked punts kept me from an 8-8 record in Week 1 and for some stupid reason I’m going to pick them again. Well, maybe the reason isn’t that stupid … they’re playing the Dolphins.

CINCINNATI -7 over Cleveland
I could talk about how the Bengals are a 2011 playoff team coming off an embarrassing loss to the Ravens on Monday Night Football or how Andy Dalton will be out for revenge. But I’ll just talk about the only things that matters…

Brandon Weeden: 12-for-35, 118 yards, 0 TD, 4 INT, 5.1 QB Rating.

Houston -7.5 over JACKSONVILLE
I hate when people say, “The man who needs no introduction…” but then they give one anyway. Well, this pick needs no explanation, so I’m not going to give one.

Dallas -3 over SEATTLE
I don’t think the Cowboys are as good as they looked on Opening Night against the Giants, but I also know that there are passengers on the Russell Wilson hype train that are willing to jump off while it’s still moving.

Washington -3 over ST. LOUIS
I can already see a letdown game from the Redskins here and I’m fully prepared for it.

New York Jets +6 over PITTSBURGH
Is it ever a good idea to believe in the Jets, especially after a 20-point win that is most likely not indicative of what type of team they are at all? Of course not. Am I letting one game after an offseason full of chaos make me think differently? Of course I am.

SAN DIEGO -6 over Tennessee
I hate picking the Chargers ever, but I don’t really have a choice here.

SAN FRANCISCO -7 over Detroit
It can’t be good that I think the best team in the NFL is the one whose quarterback is Alex Smith.

Denver +3 over ATLANTA
Peyton Manning’s second week back and his second primetime game in as many weeks. After this game, Peyton still has another Monday Night game (Week 6 against San Diego), a Sunday Night game (Week 8 against the Saints) and a Thursday Night game (Week 14 against the Raiders). I will be taking him in all of them.

Last Week: 7-9-0
Season: 7-9-0

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Sep 7, 2012

NFL Week 1 Picks

It’s Week 1 of the 2012 NFL season and that means it’s the first week of picks.

The other day I talked about seasonal depression. Let’s talk about real depression. Since Tuesday, the Yankees have lost their AL East lead completely then regained it the following night only to lose it again the next night and the Giants lost on Opening Night at home to the Cowboys. But I really shouldn’t worry about that since it’s not like the Giants have the hardest schedule in the entire NFL or anything. And oh yeah, the NHL still isn’t close to preventing a second lockout in eight years. I’m not really a Coldplay fan, but this seems like a good time to get into them.

Before Super Bowl XLVI I promised a lot of things and said a lot of things that sort of got thrown out the window in the heat of Wednesday night’s battle between the Giants and Cowboys. How badly did I fail to hold up my end of the bargain? Let’s ask Maury Povich.

“Neil, you said if the Giants win for the second time in four years and beat the Patriots again and beat Tom Brady and Bill Belichick again and beat all the Patriots fans you went to college with in Boston again and beat the city of Boston again, you won’t care if the Giants don’t make the playoffs for the next 20 years. The lie detector determined … that was a lie!”

“Neil, you said if the Giants win Super Bowl XLVI, you would never say a bad thing about Kevin Gilbride again. The lie detector determined … that was a lie!”

“Neil, you said if the Giants win Super Bowl XLVI that when it comes to the two-minute drill defense, you wouldn’t complain about the Giants’ inability to make a stop in the final minutes of either half anymore. The lie detector determined … that was a lie!”

“Neil, you said if the Giants win Super Bowl XLVI that if the receivers make numerous drops in a game, you said you would no longer complain about the excessive miscatches. The lie detector determined … that was a lie!”

There were a lot more things I said and promised, but I freaked out on Maury, gave the finger to the booing audience, threw a chair, ran behind the set and curled up in a corner and bawled my eyes out while Maury tried to console me with his expert counselor. That’s how bad things were on Wednesday night against the Cowboys.

We always hear about the “same old Jets,” but what about the “same old Giants?” Opening Night was the textbook example of what the Giants have put me through over the years, and while I understand anyone disgusted with me for being upset with a team that is coming off their second championship in four years, but at the same time if you’re not a Giants fan then you just don’t get it.

So I lied. We all do it. We all make promises to win a championship, but when that new season starts, all you want is another championship, and another and another and another. Look at Boston. In October 2004, people were willing to give up their life savings and their homes and their hair and their limbs and their children for a Red Sox World Series. They got it, but a year later those same people were devastated when the Red Sox were eliminated in the ALDS by the White Sox. If the Cubs win the 2013 World Series, their fans will want to win in 2014. And if the Jets win the Super Bowl this year, their fans will want to win it again next year. (Of course neither of those hypothetical situations will come true.) It’s the nature of the beast, and you can’t change it.

I want to apologize to Kevin Gilbride for granting him the empty promise of “Ladies and gentlemen!” immunity and I want to apologize for all of the promises I didn’t keep, but now that the new season has started and the Giants are 0-1, all I can think about is playoff football again (since there might not be playoff baseball for the Yankees) and I remember what it’s like to not have your team in the playoffs, and it sucks.

I’m still telling myself that if the Giants become the Jets this season and don’t make the playoffs, I will still have XLII and XLVI. But I know I’m just lying to myself, and there’s nothing wrong with that.

***

Last season, my NFL picks went about as well as the Bay of the Pigs. I started off hot, got warm, got lukewarm, got cold, got ice cold and then froze. I did manage to redeem myself in the postseason, but by then it was too late to salvage the year. However, I think my success was due to the Giants’ success, so I had less time to worry about the picks because I was focused on the Giants and writing about them on their second magical run.

Week 1 is my favorite week to pick games for. Why? Well, you get a clean slate (well, almost clean since I already lost the Giants game on Wednesday night) and because all you have to go off is what you have learned from the end of last season and the offseason. Once every team plays a game, everything you have taken in over the last seven months gets masked by how that team performed in Week 1 and it only gets worse as they play more and more games.

Week 1 … let’s go!

(Home team in caps)

NEW YORK GIANTS -4 over Dallas
I picked this one on Twitter on Wednesday. How about a mulligan? No? OK.

CHICAGO -10 over Indianapolis
I think there are three places that Andrew Luck didn’t want to begin his NFL career: the SuperDome, Lambeau Field and Soldier Field. Unfortunately for Luck, he will make his first career start in Chicago at Soldier Field against one of the best defenses in the game. I actually thought this line was low given the Bears’ success last season before Jay Cutler got hurt and given how bad the Colts were last year.

Here is how Peyton Manning’s rookie season started:

Week 1 vs. Miami: Loss, 1 TD, 3 INT
Week 2 at New England: Loss, 1 TD, 3 INT
Week 3 at New York Jets: Loss, 0 TD, 2 INT
Week 4 vs. New Orleans, Loss, 1 TD, 3 INT

Peyton started the year 0-4 with three touchdowns and 11 interceptions. He didn’t get his first win until Week 5 against the Chargers and would go just 2-14 that season. If things were that bad for Peyton Manning and the Colts in 1998, I don’t see how they will be that much better for Andrew Luck and the Colts in 2012.

Philadelphia -9.5 over CLEVELAND
You don’t know how bad I want to pick the Browns here, but I just can’t and Brandon Weeden is why. If the Eagles are as good as everyone thinks they are and the Browns are as bad as everyone thinks they are, this line could be 14 and I would still have to take the Eagles.

Buffalo +3 over NEW YORK JETS
On Friday, I did a podcast with my friend and crazy Jets fan Tim Duff. The optimism glowing from him over the phone was what I imagine it’s like talking to a Kansas City Royals fan on the eve of Opening Day. There’s just so much hope and so much promise and the new-car smell and feel of a clean season is very powerful. But I have a feeling Tim is going to be hungover on the train from MetLife back to the city on Sunday afternoon wondering why he even cares about the Jets.

NEW ORLEANS -7.5 over Washington
I watched maybe three minutes of preseason football. And because I’m not a college football guy, the only RG3 I have ever seen is on highlights. Last season, Eli Manning the eventual Super Bowl champions went into the SuperDome and got absolutely destroyed. So am I supposed to think that the absence of Sean Payton is going to be enough for an unknown rookie quarterback and a bad team to go in and play a tight game against the best home-field advantage in the league? No, I’m not.

New England -6 over TENNESSEE
I wonder how much money the Patriots have cost people picking them to cover since 2007. The Patriots continue to get incredible respect, and they have earned it, but if their defense is as bad as it was last year, this will be a pick I regret. On the other hand, I can’t talk myself into taking the Titans and watching the Patriots score touchdowns on their first three possessions, so I have to play it safe here.

Jacksonville +3.5 over MINNESOTA
The year after the Vikings lost to the Saints in the NFC Championship Game I was picking the Vikings every week to open the season. What did they do? They started 0-2 then they were 2-5 then 3-7 and finished 6-10. The 2010 Vikings destroyed me and I’m still not over it. The scars are deep enough that I’m taking Blaine Gabbert and the Jaguars on the road to open the season.

HOUSTON -13 over Miami
The only team the Browns have to worry about giving them a run for the worst record in the league is the Dolphins. Hard Knocks didn’t do the Jets any favors in the summer of 2010 when it came to making unnecessary headlines and this summer Hard Knocks didn’t do the Dolphins any favors by exposing just how atrocious they are going to be this season. Meanwhile Houston is a legitimate contender and the AFC South favorite. If the Yankees don’t make the playoffs and the Dolphins are once again the laughingstock of the NFL, we are going to need to make sure there is someone watching John Jastremski around the clock.

DETROIT -7.5 over St. Louis
It shouldn’t be as easy to win money as it was when you picked against the Rams last season, but it was.

KANSAS CITY +3 over Atlanta
This isn’t a popular pick since Matt Ryan wins the Battle of the Matts over Matt Cassel, but when you take the Falcons out of the Georgia Dome it’s like taking a fish out of the water.

San Francisco +5 over GREEN BAY
If there’s one game that has “REGRET” written over it in red pen and capital letters, it’s this one. Yes, I’m really taking Alex Smith in Green Bay on Opening Day. This feels so wrong. But at least I know what goes through Joe Girardi’s head when he starts Steve Pearce against left-handed pitchers.

Carolina -2.5 over TAMPA BAY
The Panthers have Cam Newton and Steve Smith and a good running game and a good defense. The Bucs have none of those things.

Seattle -3 over ARIZONA
An NFC West matchup! I always love these. I guess I have to take the Seahawks since they know who their starting quarterback is.

DENVER -2 over PITTSBURGH
Tim Tebow’s Broncos beat the Steelers in Denver in the playoffs. So why wouldn’t Peyton Manning’s Broncos have an easier time doing the same thing?

BALTIMORE -6.5 over Cincinnati
Everything points to this being too many points for a division matchup that isn’t the Patriots against the Dolphins.

OAKLAND -1 over San Diego
When I first saw this line, I couldn’t believe the Chargers weren’t favored because no one gets undeserved respect like the Chargers do. For a team that has done nothing to earn respect from Vegas over the last few seasons, picking against the Chargers has been a good way to earn some easy wins, and I’m not going to shy away from my love of picking against them now.

Season: 0-1-0

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