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Tag: Peyton Manning

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NFL Week 10 Picks

The Giants are back from their bye week and hopefully the second half of their season and the second half of the picks season will go better than the first half.

The Giants haven’t ruined a Sunday for me since Oct. 6 when they lost to Nick Vick in Philadelphia. Since then they have played on Thursday Night Football, Monday Night Football, beat the Eagles at MetLife in their only Sunday game since the loss to Nick Vick and then had their bye week. So that means this Sunday a month without Giants-induced depression Sundays will be put to the test against the Raiders.

With the Giants playing the Raiders and the Cowboys in New Orleans for what is likely an inevitable loss at the Superdome where everyone loses, the Giants could be one game back with seven to play and one of those seven against the Cowboys. Before I talk myself into taking the Giants back and making it Facebook official again, I’m just going to get into the picks.

Week 10! Let’s go!

(Home team in caps)

MINNESOTA +2.5 over Washington
The Thursday Night Football record is now at 7-2 and with success comes expectations, which is the last thing I need as I wait for the other shoe to drop with my Thursday picks. But in my wish to have the NFC East cleared out so that it’s the Giants and the Cowboys down the stretch it means the Redskins need to start losing.

TENNESSEE -12 over Jacksonville
The Jaguars have lost by less than 12 points once this season when they lost 19-9 in Oakland in Week 2. Aside from that game, they have lost by 26, 28, 34, 14, 16, 18 and 32. So as I have said before, there isn’t a realistic line in which I would take the Jaguars and certainly not at 12.

Philadelphia +1 over GREEN BAY
The moment Seneca Wallace took over for an injured Aaron Rodgers on Monday Night Football, we all finally saw what the Packers are without Rodgers even at Lambeau. Now Seneca and the Packers get to face Nick Foles and the Eagles and try to put out the only flicker of hope Philadelphia sports fans have right now with the Flyers in last place, the 76ers expected to finish last in the NBA and the Phillies still owing Ryan Howard at least $85 million between now and 2017. I want nothing more than for Foles to add to Philadelphia sports misery, but I know how bad Seneca Wallace is.

Buffalo +3 over PITTSBURGH
The Steelers’ season is over. At 2-6 and 3.5 games back in the AFC North and 2.5 games back of a playoff berth the have nothing to play for. They are just a name at this point and if their roster of players’ team name were say the Falcons and not the Steelers then they wouldn’t be a 3-point favorite at home against the Bills, but thanks to their national following they are. The Steelers are an old, worn-out team and unfortunately they aren’t facing Jeff Tuel this week.

NEW YORK GIANTS -7.5 over Oakland
Is it 2012? Or 2011? Or 2010? Or any year other than 2013? The Giants favored by more than a touchdown? The 2013 Giants? If we’re going to make this thing work down the stretch where it’s the Giants and Cowboys fighting for the division and a home playoff game (yes, the Giants could possibly host a playoff game this season) then they are going to need to prove they are capable of a run. And proving you’re capable of a run means beating the Raiders by more than a touchdown at home.

INDIANAPOLIS -9.5 over St. Louis
Kellen Clemens on the road. Kellen Clemens on the road. Kellen Clemens on the road. Kellen Clemens on the road. Kellen Clemens on the road.

Seattle -6 over ATLANTA
The Seahawks’ four road wins have come by 5, 3, 12 and 5 points, so it’s hard to feel confident about them going to Atlanta and covering 6. But this will be the first game the Falcons will play since having their season officially ended and there’s not better than an elite team and a real true Super Bowl contender facing a team that has nothing to play for.

BALTIMORE +1.5 over Cincinnati
The defending Super Bowl champs are a loss on Sunday away from not being able to defend their title this season. It wouldn’t be a surprise since they are currently riding a three-game losing streak with those three losses coming by a combined 11 points and since they just lost after their bye week in Cleveland to Jason Campbell and the Browns. Even knowing all of this, I’m taking the Ravens.

Carolina +6.5 over SAN FRANCISCO
The Panthers’ five wins have come against teams with a combined 8-33 record, so this week it will certainly be the Panthers’ first real test since their 12-7 Week 1 loss to the Seahawks. The Seahawks, 49ers and Saints are the elite teams in the NFC, but the Panthers are in the tier right below them.

ARIZONA -2.5 over Houston
Yup, it’s that Game of the Week …

Somewhere someone who isn’t a Cardinals fan or a Texans fan is going to bet on this game and watch it in its entirety. Think about that.

Denver -7 over SAN DIEGO
This line does seem high for a divisional matchup between a great team on the road against a good team, but I would rather lose with Peyton Manning than lose with Philip Rivers knowing that I went against Peyton Manning.

NEW ORLEANS -7 over Dallas
The Saints burned me in Foxboro with their last-second loss to the Patriots and then again with their embarrassing performance in East Rutherford. But the Saints never burn me at home in the Superdome where no opponent really stands a chance, especially not the Cowboys, who have one road win this season that came against the Eagles in Week 7. That’s not exactly the road resume of a team playing in primetime in New Orleans that you want to back.

Miami -3 over TAMPA BAY
Darrelle Revis said on Twitter that making $16 million and playing for the winless Buccaneers is better than making $12 million and playing for the 5-4 Jets. Sure, Revis has a point that getting paid 33 percent more is better, but have you heard the term “Revis Island” (that Revis recently trademarked) lately or anything positive about Revis? No, you haven’t because Revis is playing in the wrong system for his talent and abilities on the wrong team and wasting away in Tampa Bay in the Buccaneers’ 0-8 circus while his former team currently owns the 6-seed in the AFC playoffs. Enjoy the extra millions in football Siberia.

Last week: 6-6-1
Season: 57-71-5

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NFL Week 7 Picks

My picks season continues to mirror the New York Football Giants’ season and that means last week was another week that ended in disappointment.

Six weeks ago I was looking forward to Giants football as the Yankees’ season crawled to a painful end. I was hoping for the Giants (along with the Rangers) to take off a little of the edge left by the Yankees and carry me through the fall and holiday season and if I was lucky enough, carry me through the disgusting January weather and maybe even into February like they did in 2007 and 2011. Instead the Giants’ season ended along with the Yankees’ season at the end of the September and now it’s Week 7 and the Giants have 10 meaningless games left and it will be 10 1/2 months until they have anything other than spoiling another team’s season to play for.

Things have gotten gradually worse for the 2013 Giants since the six-turnover game to open the season and I should have just turned them off and never turned them back on after the first play of that game when Eli Manning threw an interception right to DeMarcus Ware. Like actually right to him. The phrase “right to” had never had as much meaning as it did then. But I didn’t turn them off. I watched Eli do the opposite of fourth-quarter magic in that game as if he were a magician asking their volunteer “Is this your card? No? OK. Is this your card? No? This one? This one? Umm … this one?” I kept watching when the team fell apart in the second half against the Broncos and when the offensive line underwent the embarrassment equivalent of being pantsed in the sixth-grade cafeteria. I watched the Chiefs defense have their way in Week 4 and watched Nick Vick (the lethal combination of Nick Foles and Michael Vick) do what the Seahawks’ Charvaris Whiteson (the combination of Charlie Whitehurst and Tavaris Jackson) did to the Giants two years ago. And then last Thursday I watched Eli throw an interception on his second and fifth throws of the game and then with a chance to redeem himself and possibly save the Giants’ season he threw a third pick trying to beat the two-minute warning for no reason in what was more failed fourth-quarter magic.

Six weeks and five losses ago, David Wilson said this about his own season: “I’m at the bottom now. Nowhere to go but up.” He was wrong about his game and if that quote were about the Giants, it would have also been wrong. The Giants have only gone down since the “Disaster in Dallas” and maybe this lost season is bottomless when it comes to possible ways of losing.

***

My picks season has mirrored the Giants’ season through six weeks and maybe I will never see .500 this season the way they might never see the win column.

Week 7 … let’s go!

(Home team in caps)

Seattle -6.5 over ARIZONA
The only thing I know is that I can correctly pick the Thursday game.

New England -4.5 over NEW YORK JETS
The Saints learned that if you give Tom Brady the ball with 3:29 left and then with 2:24 left and then with 1:13 left, you will eventually lose. It doesn’t matter if he has no timeouts, no receivers or virtually no mathematical chance, he will make you pay.

The Jets lost to the winless Steelers at home in Week 6, leaving the Giants as the only winless team not from Jacksonville. But somewhere between being 3-3 and losing to the Patriots on the road in Week 2 and then losing to the Steelers at home, the Jets got their overconfident attitude back like the intolerable friend in your group that thinks he can get any girl. Here’s what Jets rookie defensive tackle had to say about Tom Brady as if he were part of the 2010 Jets:

“I’m not treating him like Superman. He’s Tom Brady; I’m Sheldon Richardson. He’s a name. He’s a figure, a franchise player. I’m trying to get after him, simple as that. No one really treats him like [Superman] around here. I think he’s the complete opposite of that.”

Brady is 18-4 against the Jets in his career (including five straight wins since the 2010 playoff game) and 1-0 against them with Richardson on the team. He’s 5-1 this season despite his leading receiver being Julian Edelman (real life) and led the Patriots to a nearly impossible game-winning drive against the undefeated Saints four days ago. Maybe he’s not Superman, since Clark Kent is Superman, but he’s more than a name and a figure.

San Diego -8 over JACKSONVILLE
The Jaguars were able to cover the four-touchdown spread againts the Broncos, but they still lost by 16 points and have yet to lose by less than double digits this season. That’s a trend I’m willing to follow even if it means needing Philip Rivers and the Chargers to continue it for me.

DETROIT -3 over Cincinnati
Last week the Bengals had to go to overtime to get by Thad Lewis and the Bills (possible band name like Jesse and the Rippers or Hot Daddy and the Monkey Puppets?) and they had to go to overtime because they let Thad Lewis lead a game-tying drive with 2:40 from the Buffalo 14 that ended with a 40-yard touchdown pass.

MIAMI -8 over Buffalo
The Dolphins were 3-0 and flying high before being trounced at the Superdome like every visiting team is and before losing a three-point game to the defending Super Bowl champs. The Dolphins are coming off their bye and looking to avoid losing further ground to the Patriots in the division and what better way to keep pace with the Patriots than to have Thad Lewis and the Bills in town?

WASHINGTON -1 over Chicago
A year ago the Redskins were all about RGIII and the pistol offense and the revival of football in the nation’s capital. Now the Redskins are all about RGIII’s sophomore slump and trying to avoid a team name change. It seems inevitable at this point that the Redskins are going to have to change their name with momentum heavily gaining against Dan Snyder and sports radio callers justifying “Redskins” as people with sun burns losing their battle.

I shouldn’t want the Redskins to win a game, but they’re 1-4 and the Giants are 0-6 and we need to clear out the bottom of the barrel in the league for Jadeveon Clowney. We need to narrow this thing down to the Giants and Jaguars and hope the Jaguars catch fire at some point. OK, maybe not fire and more like sparks or some semblance of heat and win a game or two or if we’re lucky three. OK, let’s keep it at one for now.

Dallas +2.5 over PHILADELPHIA
It’s disgusting to know that the NFC East winner is going to be the Cowboys or Eagles. (No, this isn’t a reverse jinx attempt to get the Giants back in the playoff picture. Or is it?) Either Tony Romo or Michael Vick or Nick Foles of Nick Vick will be playing in January while the Giants are reevaluating things and themselves like you would do after a drunken, sleep-deprived weekend that includes leaving your phone in a cab, your card at the bar and Dominos boxes all over your living room.

CAROLINA -6.5 over St. Louis
Somewhere someone who isn’t a Panthers fan or a Rams fan is going to bet on this game and watch it in its entirety. Think about that.

ATLANTA -7 over Tampa Bay
Somewhere someone who isn’t a Falcons fan or a Buccaneers fan is going to bet on this game and watch it in its entirety. Think about that.

San Francisco -5 over TENNESSEE
I initially picked the Titans to cover after they were able to keep it close and cover against the Seahawks at home last week. But then I realized when the 49ers win, they win by an average of 18.3 points and when they lose, they lose by an average of 15.3 points. So if I think they are going to win the game straight up, which I do, then math says they are going to win by more than five. And if I’m wrong, I have math to blame.

KANSAS CITY -6.5 over Houston
Last year, the Broncos had to worry about the Ravens and Patriots and Texans in the AFC. This year they definitely don’t have to worry about the Texans, don’t really have to worry about the Ravens and as of now, they don’t yet have to worry about the Patriots. The Broncos need to worry about the Kansas City Chiefs. The 6-0 Chiefs who have allowed a league-leading 65 points in six games and 93 less points than the Broncos have allowed. Yes, the Broncos have scored a league-leading 265 points and 113 more points than the Chiefs, but high-scoring offenses don’t win in the playoffs (just ask any of those first-round exit teams Peyton quarterbacked that we are going to get to momentarily) and we’ll get a taste of which team is really the best in the AFC in Weeks 11 and 13.

GREEN BAY -10 over Cleveland
Since their bye in Week 4, the Packers have destroyed the Lions in Lambeau and knocked off the Ravens in Baltimore. The Packers would appear to be putting it together and that coupled with the idea of needing Brandon Weeden to do enough to keep it close in Green Bay are why I’m willing to take the Packers to cover two possessions.

Baltimore +1.5 over PITTSBURGH
The Yankees-Red Sox of the NFL in that no matter what year it is, no matter what the rosters look like, these two teams will play close games and that’s why you’re always better off taking the points in these games. Let’s go back to when Joe Flacco became the starting quarterback of the Ravens in 2008 and see how these two-game season series have gone.

In 2012, the Ravens won 13-10 and the Steelers won 23-20. In 2011, the Ravens won 35-7 and 23-20. In 2010, the Ravens won 17-14 and the Steelers won 13-10. In 2009, the Ravens won 20-17 in overtime and the Steelers won 23-20. In 2008, the Steelers won 23-20 in overtime and  13-9.

That’s 10 games with eight of them being decided by three points, one being decided by four points and one being decided by 28 (the Steelers had seven turnovers, yes seven turnovers, in that loss). Forget picking the Ravens to cover, is there a prop bet that this game will be won by exactly three points?

Denver -7 over INDIANAPOLIS
Jim Irsay went and did what a Midwestern billionaire who owns an NFL team would do and opened his big mouth about not winning more than one Super Bowl in 11 postseason trips during Peyton Manning’s career with the Colts. Sure, it might have been a little out of line, but Irsay has a point, doesn’t he? The Colts went to two Super Bowls in 11 postseason trips with Peyton Manning, but lost their first playoff game seven times and were just 9-10 and also helped the Patriots build their early-2000s dynasty. (Thanks for that, Peyton!)

What if John Mara made the same statement about Eli Manning and Tom Coughlin one day? I think he would also have a case. Since 2005, the Giants have won two Super Bowls and are 8-3 in the playoffs, but they have three losses in their first playoff games (2005, 2006 and 2008) and have missed out on the playoffs in three of eight years and after this season they will have missed the playoffs in four of nine years. Don’t get me wrong, I am perfectly content with the two Super Bowl wins over the Patriots, but you can’t help but think what more the Giants could have done without the second-half collapses.

NEW YORK GIANTS -3.5 over Minnesota
The Giants are 0-6. The playoffs are out of the question and so is Jadeveon Clowney (I think). But this game might be one of the Giants’ only real chances at winning in 2013. At home against the 1-4 Vikings and Josh Freeman, who is trying to revitalize his career with a second chance in Minnesota. If the Giants can’t beat the Vikings at home then who are they going to beat? Here are their remaining games: Philadelphia, Oakland, Green Bay, Dallas, at Washington, at San Diego, Seattle, at Detroit and Washington. A loss to the Vikings will mean 0-7 and with each loss it will only get that much harder to win as players give up (well, those who haven’t already) and the pressure of winning a single game mounts.

Last week: 5-9-0
Season: 34-53-4

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Giants-Broncos Week 2 Thoughts: Excuses for Eli Manning

Eli Manning isn’t worried that he threw four interceptions and lost to his brother again or that the Giants are 0-2 and playing for their season in Week 3.

I’m really good at making excuses for Eli Manning. Like really, really good. I’m so good that I would be surprised if Archie or Olivia or Peyton or Cooper are as good as me at making excuses for the youngest member of their family. Why am I so good at this? I think it’s because I think Eli is better than his numbers seem to suggest or better than everyone gives him credit for. And because of that I thought the Giants would get the last laugh at Vegas for making 5 1/2-point underdogs at home against the Broncos and Eli would win what’s likely to be the final Manning Bowl. Instead, Vegas got the last laugh (at me) and Peyton added another footnote to help his case in any Manning debate forever.

How am I supposed to make an excuse for Eli after Sunday’s performance against the Broncos after last Sunday’s performance against the Cowboys? How can I sit here and tell you neither loss was Eli’s fault (or at least mostly his fault)? Should I also tell you that the day after Sunday is Tuesday or that Thanksgiving isn’t always on a Thursday or that CC Sabathia isn’t a complete waste of $23 million this year or that I’m looking forward to a postseason-less October for the Yankees? No, no, no and no. I can’t sit here today and make excuses for Eli Manning, but I don’t need to. Eli has made excuses for himself.

That’s right. Two Super Bowl MVPs or not, Eli Manning answered questions after a four-interception performance in a loss as if to say, “No big deal.” And maybe it is “no big deal” for a quarterback playing with a $106.9 million contract, but that’s also why it should be a big deal. So instead of the usual “Thoughts” following each Giants game, let’s analyze Eli’s postgame answers.

On his level of concern for the way things are going.

“I think we’ll bounce back and I thought there were some good things. The first half I thought we had a lot of opportunities. I think that’s where we did some really good things. We just didn’t get touchdowns. We got field goals and in the second half we had a weird interception off of a foot and we tried to fight back.”

Wow. What a way to start answering questions after an 18-point, four-interception loss that puts the Giants in an 0-2 hole. What a way to open the postgame media session. This would be like CC Sabathia opening a postgame session after giving up five earned runs in five innings or blowing a late-game lead by saying that he needs to get better and he will fix things and turn it around only to never get better, never fix things, turn nothing around and continue to lose. Wait a second …

“Some good things?” “Some really good things?!?!” “SOME REALLY GOOD THINGS?!?!” You threw four interceptions. Hakeem Nicks dislocated his finger. David Wilson rushed for 17 yards on seven carries. Brandon Jacobs rushed for four yards on seven carries. The famous pass rush recorded zero sacks. Should I go on?

But you’re right, in the first half there were some opportunities. And you’re right that you and offensive genius Kevin Gilbride destroyed every opportunity by settling for field goals. And saying “We just didn’t get touchdowns” so nonchalantly is just a little bit of a problem. And it was a nice touch trying to act like the “weird interception off of a foot” was the reason for the loss or the only interception and not just one of four interceptions that included three incredible picks that left me asking myself if I even like football.

“When we got down a couple of scores and tried to press, it could go either way. You could make some plays hopefully and also make some mistakes. We were in a bind. The offense, we have to get a little more balanced. We have to run the ball better and we have to eliminate the turnovers. I think we’ll keep fighting and get back on track. I know everybody in our division lost today, so the way we can look at it, we’re one game back in the division. We’ve got to get back to winning some games.”

You don’t think the offense is balanced? You don’t think 812 passing yards and 73 rushing yards through two games is balanced? Get the eff out of here! Me too!

And everyone else in the NFC East lost on Sunday? Well, when you put it that way who even cares that the Giants lost? Just like who cares that the Yankees lost on Sunday since the Rays and Rangers lost?

On going 3-for-12 on third downs.

“We’ll have to look. Just had a couple … I can think of one drop, some misfires, I got pressured on a few things. I think a couple were down in the red zone that were unfortunate. If we could have converted on those, they could have led to scoring touchdowns and not field goals.”

Yes, “we’ll have to look” at how you can convert 25 percent of your third downs with a receiving trio of Hakeem Nicks, Victor Cruz and Rueben Randle. It’s at least a little reassuring that you do realize that converting first downs in the red zone is an important factor in scoring touchdowns and not settling for field goals. At least we’re on the right track.

On whether or not the season feels like 2007.

“We just have to play better. I’m not trying to make comparisons to years obviously … You can look at it the same, but we have to find a way to play better. Better offense, better defense. I thought the defense played really well that last two weeks, so we have to help them out by scoring some more points and putting the opposing offense in a bind.”

Thank you, Eli! Finally, someone with their head on straight. Can everyone else please stop talking about 2007? Please? Does every 0-2 team go on to win 10 of their remaining 14 games and then win four road games in the postseason and knock off what would have been the best team in NFL history in the Super Bowl? If so, then forget me telling you to stop talking about 2007 and go on and continue to lazily use that storyline and connection and try to relive the most improbable playoff run. But that team had a pass rush and an 1,000-yard rusher. This team has turned the ball over 10 times, has two sacks and 73 rushing yards in eight quarters. Let’s hold the comparisons for a week or two or until the Giants get a win.

On whether or not Peyton will tease him about never beating him.

“I don’t think so. I think this is something that we’re both passionate about. What we’re doing is our job.  It’s my concern to this team and getting back to winning right now.”

Oh, he’s definitely going to tease you. But luckily you have that trump card in the second ring and both of them coming against Tom Brady, who Peyton has had trouble beating his entire career.

On if the loss is more disappointing because it’s against Peyton.

“It’s all team-related. You want to go out there and play well, so you’re frustrated that you lost another game. We had some opportunities early on. Their offense started clicking and making some plays. We had turnovers and we just couldn’t catch any breaks. We just really want to get back to where we’re playing better football offensively and get back on track.”

Oh, BS. You know it bothers you that you lost to your older brother and have never beat him.

On the interception intended for Nicks at the end of the first half.

“Just a bad decision by me. I was really just trying to kind of … in a little … on a blitz and trying to throw the ball away, where we wouldn’t get an intentional grounding, but we would get it close. It was unfortunate that I threw it in a spot where their guy could make a play.”

You didn’t “throw it in a spot where their guy could make a play.” You threw it to their guy as if he was the guy trying to make the play. “Unfortunate” was a good word to use.

On the fourth and final interception.

“The last one was on me. Rueben did the right thing, he ran the right route and I threw the wrong route.”

Not only did you throw the wrong route, but I would say that was the worst interception of your career. And that’s coming one week after I said your first throw of the 2013 season, which was an interception, was the worst of your career. OK, maybe the one from last week is still the worst, but this one has to be Top 5. I’m scared to know what’s in store for Week 3 and if you’re going to try to one-up yourself all season with these.

On the pass to Cruz on the first play of the game.

“It was honestly a great way to start the game. Our defense got us a turnover and to hit Cruz on a big one down the field on the first play and then got another first down running with Brandon, it was a good drive. We had a third and long and weren’t able to convert on that one, had to settle for a field goal, but it was a good start. First half there was really good things going on, we just didn’t finish some drives as well as we needed to.”

This is why the interception last week was so insane. The Giants had an entire offseason to decide what the first play of the season would be and Eli threw the ball directly into DeMarcus Ware’s chest. Then they had a week to decide how they would attack the Broncos from the start of the game and they decided on airing it out, which led to a 51-yard pass to Cruz. It was the best play of the day because it set the tone after the Broncos punted, but it also made the day that more frustrating (and of course last week’s season-opening interception that much more unfathomable).

On throwing seven interception in two games.

“Yeah, that’s never a goal. Before the season I like to set goals, keeping interceptions in the single digits.  I kind of have to start over here. Obviously, some of them happen and you have to look at decisions and you get some bad breaks. Sometimes you get late in games, fourth-and-10 and we have to make a play and force something here and whether it’s intercepted or incomplete, an interception probably ends up being better right there for us field position-wise. At the end of games or when you’re competing, I’m going to be aggressive and not worry about the stats or quarterback rating at the end. Honestly I’m not trying to throw interceptions, but obviously I’m just worried about getting back to playing well offensively and eliminating some of these turnovers.”

I think you could have gone without saying “that’s never a goal.” I’m pretty sure no one was going to ask if you that was a goal of yours. And I hate to break it to you, but Brendan Ryan (who has 19 career home runs in 2,327 at-bats) has a better chance of hitting double-digit home runs in 2013 (he has four home runs and there are 12 games left) than you do of keeping your interception total to single digits this season. Starting over is a good idea. We can come up with some goals this week before the Carolina game. (I already have some in mind.) And good for you for not worrying about stats or quarterback rating or anything that puts your team in a better position to win. Just keep doing what you’re doing. It’s obviously working.

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Giants-Broncos Means Manning Bowl III

The Broncos are in town for Manning Bowl III and that calls for an email exchange with Ian Henson of Mile High Report.

Peyton Manning might very well be the best regular-season quarterback in the history of the NFL. But when it comes to the postseason, Peyton is the second-best quarterback in his family. Eli Manning can always use the second Super Bowl ring to quiet his critics and his brother and the fact that he beat Tom Brady (which is something Peyton has had a lot of trouble doing) for both of his Super Bowls and Super Bowl MVPs. But when it comes to the direct battle of Manning brother supremacy, Eli falls short with an 0-2 record in the Manning Bowl (2006 and 2010). On Sunday, however, Eli has a chance to close the gap a little more on which Manning is the best Manning if he can upset his brother and the Broncos at MetLife Stadium.

Ian Henson of Mile High Report joined me for an email exchange with the Broncos in town for Manning Bowl III this weekend to talk about how confident Broncos fans are, whether or not they trust Peyton in the playoffs and what will happen this Sunday in East Rutherford.

Keefe: The last time the Giants played the Broncos it ruined Thanksgiving. The Giants opened the 2009 season winning five straight games and then immediately lost four games. They came off their bye to beat the Falcons in overtime in Week 11 and then made the trip to the Denver for Thanksgiving night. Broncos 26, Giants 6.

Eli Manning threw for 230 yards and Brandon Jacobs and D.J. Ware each ran for 27 yards and the Broncos’ 16-0 halftime lead was too much to overcome.

After that game the Giants lost three of their final five games and gave up 166 points combined in those five games, finishing the season 8-8.

This time the Broncos have a chance to put the Giants’ season on life alert in Week 2. After this game, the Giants go on the road to face the Panthers, who will be looking for revenge from their Week 2 embarrassment against the Giants last year and then to Kansas City to face Andy Reid, who knows the Giants better than any coach in the league, and his new team.

With the Yankees battling for their wild-card lives I was looking forward to Giants and football season, but is it possible that it might be in serious trouble on Sept. 15? What’s it like to have your team coming off the most impressive Week 1 win in the league in which you dismantled the Super Bowl champions and your quarterback tied a single-game touchdown record?

Henson: Up until 2011, in the Season of Tebow, I had never been to a Denver Broncos game in which they had lost (and I have been to a lot of games). The last time the Broncos played the New York Giants in Denver, I was there. My phone blew up after the Josh McDaniels, “I just want to win a f—in’ game!” I had no idea what people were talking about, they got it from the NFL Network, I obviously couldn’t hear McDaniels from where I was sitting. I never considered traveling to be such a big factor when I was younger, but I know from living in New York and Denver, that the flight is just about as long as it is from New York to Los Angeles. Brutal for a flight in which you’re taking off and landing in the same country.

I have to confess, I was 18 when I moved to New York City, I was too young to get into any bars, thus forced to watch games wherever I could. That usually meant at home, this is how I developed a kinship with the Giants, they were always on and unable to see Broncos games in 2001 in a bar made me develop an interest. I will cheer for the Giants in any game that does not involve the Broncos.

The last time Denver and New York met, the Broncos had traded Jay Cutler and a fifth-round pick to the Chicago Bears for two first-round draft picks, a third round and Kyle Orton. Orton had an atrocious preseason and had Denver fans begging for him to be benched in favor of Chris Simms. Fans hated McDaniels from the start; then the season started and the Broncos under McDaniels went 6-0 (including an overtime victory in which McDaniels beat his old coach Bill Belichick), the team went on to lose their next four games and in the meantime Orton got injured. Thanksgiving 2009, the Giants and Broncos game happened.

Orton’s first game back, the team was still in the playoff hunt, in a very weak AFC West. The Broncos went on to win against the Giants and the next week they whooped the Kansas City Chiefs. The Broncos travled to Indianapolis and Peyton Manning squashed what was left of Denver, even a record day by Brandon Marshall breaking Terrell Owens’ single-game catch record with 21 for 200 yards and two touchdowns did nothing. The Broncos picked off Manning three times, but Orton could not capitalize and in Week 14 the Colts had already secured home field advantage for the playoffs. Manning was always a Bronco killer, he has yet to prove that he doesn’t remain a Bronco killer.

In 2012, the Broncos were one of the best teams in the league, the Ravens weren’t. Denver easily handled a neutered Baltimore team in the regular season. The playoffs were an entirely different animal though, two overtimes later, the Ravens move on and the Broncos are sent back home. Tebow fans were commenting how he had gotten the Broncos that far, what was the point of Peyton Manning? Denver did not game plan for a single game in the preseason this year and as far as I can tell, started running scout team preparing for the Baltimore game in Week 2 or Week 3 of the preseason. Baltimore had no choice, no one could have guessed that Manning would throw seven touchdowns, but the only doubt anyone had was whether or not Denver could be over or under on the point spread.

It isn’t homerism to say that Denver is really good this season, that Baltimore game was without Von Miller and without Champ Bailey. The Broncos have replaced their running game with Wes Welker and Julius Thomas is scary good if he can stay healthy. Even Denver’s fourth string receiver caught a touchdown. It’s good for the week to be on top, but the Giants have ruined a previous Broncos perfect season before. In 1998, Denver was 13-0, came to Giants stadium and lost 16-20. New York killed the Broncos undefeated season and it was by less than a touchdown (a trend the Giants would be so famous for in 2007).

During our podcast, we neglected to mention that Eli has never beat Peyton. I don’t know how much that is coming up in New York, but as we are both aware, this may be the last chance that he gets. Peyton’s not likely to still be playing in three seasons when the AFC West and the NFC East meet again. I think that amateurs may point to the Giants shaky running game, but Denver shut down Ray Rice in week one. New York’s running game is a trap basically, Pro Football Focus pointed out that both Champ Bailey and Chris Harris were top 15 corners in the NFL last season, but if Bailey is healthy, it would probably be a better thing for the Giants. Harris will be on Victor Cruz, Harris spent the entire preseason and training camp pairing with Wes Welker and you have Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie back in his natural position and matched up once again with Hakeem Nicks. This is why I say Bailey is the liability. I think Denver is much better off with Tony Carter on Reuben Randle than Champ on Randle.

I see no way that Denver runs the ball though and if the game is a shootout they probably wouldn’t want to anyway.

Keefe: We neglected to mention that Eli has never beaten Peyton because who wants to bring up that sore subject?!?! However, the Giants could gave beaten the Colts and therefore Eli would have beaten Peyton if not for the phantom pass interference call in the 2006 game that left Al Michaels and John Madden in shock on the broadcast. So maybe it would be 1-1 if not for the call that should have never been called, but it’s not and Peyton holds the 2-0 advantage.

Eli does the hold advantage when it comes to championships, which is all that really matters, isn’t it? But you could make the case that if not for Pierre Garcon’s terrible drop against the Saints in the Super Bowl and the onside kick against the Colts to open the second half, Peyton never would have been set up to throw a game-clinching interception and he would be 2-0 in Super Bowls as well.

But since this has turned into an Eli-Peyton discussion, for the moment, and if championships are all that matters (and they are, especially for fans), then how do you feel about the Broncos chances’ this season? You saw what Peyton can do firsthand in the regular season last year and in one regular-season game this year, but you also saw what he could do in the postseason when he seems to come up short in the big spot (even if he isn’t responsible for the defensive coverage on Jacoby Jones). Knowing how good the Broncos are and how good Peyton is and can be and how weak the AFC West and AFC are in 2013, are the Broncos going to be there in the end, barring any devastating injuries?

Henson: I will point out that I hated Peyton Manning as a Broncos fan for every single season of his career up until 2012. I remember the game that you are talking about, but much like the Giants last two Super Bowls, it could have gone either way. Eli makes the play when it counts, twice now and probably once or twice more before he is finished with his career. The same could be said for Peyton in his Super Bowl loss, one miss throw to Tracy Porter and they lose, last season in the playoffs he tosses an interception to Corey Graham to end the first overtime. Three plays later, the game is over. Eli doesn’t do that so much.

The Broncos handled the Ravens and I don’t think that the Ravens are a bad team, I thought that the Cincinnati Bengals would take the AFC North, but they just got toppled by the Chicago Bears. I think that Baltimore and Denver see each other again in the post season. The parallels between 2012 and 1996 for Denver are too many, 1997 of course was the year the 0-4 (in Super Bowls) Broncos finally made it 1-4. I think this season, even without Peyton Denver can make a playoff run. People were quick to point out that the Broncos were on their third center and without Von Miller, but Denver just extended Manny Ramirez for two more seasons and Shaun Phillips (Von’s backup) has 2.5 sacks and is currently second in the NFL. Their depth is scary and the AFC is in shambles right now. Houston almost lost to San Diego, the Raiders nearly handed to to the Colts, New England? Name a receiver on the Patriots that is healthy and not named Edelman…

What is going to be interesting to me is watching Andy Reid’s Kansas City Chiefs vs. the NFC East. The Chiefs are returning 11 Pro Bowlers from last season, Reid, as much as people may dislike him in the NFC East, is a great coach. Give him Alex Smith, who doesn’t often make mistakes, Jamaal Charles and Dwayne Bowe … Pack that in with the fact that he’s been playing two games against every team in your division outside of his own team and man … That’s going to be fun entertainment. The AFC West may actually be the reason that the Giants win the NFC East this season. No one thinks the AFC West is worth anything, but look at Week One and how they handled themselves. I don’t know how long Terrelle Pryor will be a thing, but Mike McCoy won a playoff game with Tim Tebow, I think that he will be alright with Philip Rivers.

Speaking of Rivers, how do Giants fans feel about him?

Keefe: I have no reason to dislike Philip Rivers for any reason other than that he would have been the Giants quarterback, which I guess is enough of a reason to dislike him when you look at what he has accomplished in his carer compared to Eli Manning. It’s hard to justify not liking someone who has never really affected your team other than they would have been your franchise quarterback if things unfolded differently. It’s not like he’s David Ortiz or the baseball Manny Ramirez or Martin Brodeur or Tony Romo or Donovan McNabb or someone that has given you on-the-field reasons to not like them. I don’t like Rivers because had Archie Manning not made sure the Chargers didn’t draft Eli, he would have been a Giant. (It seems pretty stupid when you actually write it out.)

You talked about how the AFC West isn’t as bad as everyone might have thought before the season, but when I look at it I just see early-season hype storylines in Andy Reid succeeding in Kansas City, Terrelle Pryor being the much-needed franchise quarterback in Oakland and San Diego being revitalized and nearly knocking off Houston. I say “hype storylines” because these seem to be more for talking head shows rather than for real life. and it wouldn’t surprise me if all three of those teams were afterthoughts by the middle of October. (Though I’m sure it wouldn’t surprise you either.) That means the Broncos are set up to most likely run the table in division matchups and then would just need to go something like 4-6 in their other 10 games to reach the postseason and they’re already 1-0, so 3-6 now. I guess I answered my own question from earlier if the Broncos will be there in the end this year.

But there has to be something that worries you about the Broncos, isn’t there? Tell me there’s something you’re worried about because when it comes to the Giants I’m worried about just about everything. But I guess that’s Giants football no matter what year it is.

Henson: I am not a big fan and was even less of a fan of Brock Osweiler last season. Osweiler played for Dennis Erickson at Arizona State, Erickson when 6-6 and for fear of losing draft position to a new head coach’s offense Osweiler entered the draft in 2012. The Denver Broncos traded out of the Dont’a Hightower pick (Pats), then again out of the Doug Martin pick (Buccaneeers), back into the second round and picked up Derek Wolfe and Brock Osweiler. The Wolfe pick doesn’t bother me so much and may pan out to be a really good pick, but the Osweiler pick still can get me steamed. In picking up Osweiler, the Broncos missed on so many players that they had met with, scouted and knew to be good players. Denver wins the Baltimore playoff game with Doug Martin as their running back.

It doesn’t end there though, Janoris Jenkins, Bobby Wagner, Lavonte David, Rueben Randle, Coby Fleener, Russell Wilson, Kirk Cousins! Every one of those players could have been picked up instead of Osweiler and instead, they have Osweiler. Now, there was some PR material given out around draft time to attempt to smooth over Broncos fans and let them know that Osweiler would have been a first-round draft pick in 2013, but the Broncos got him in the second round in 2012. So, I hated the pick, more so than the player, but Osweiler looked okay in the preseason and I have no doubt that with Denver’s very easy schedule, he could win eight, nine games if the worse were to happen.

Everything that I was afraid of happened. Ryan Clady who covers Manning’s blindside is not 100 percent, Ramirez at center is really the 32nd worst starting center in the league, the running game sucks, Von Miller is out six games, Champ Bailey is probably out at least four games, Elvis Dumervil on the Ravens, Eric Decker sucking (three catches and a fumble) … I’ve covered a situation in which Manning is gone. The team just really isn’t reliant on who the players are for whatever reason. Look back at Week 1, the Broncos gave up 21 points on mistakes made by special teams and defense (Danny Trevathan’s one yard fumble celebration cost Denver seven points, turned into seven for the Ravens and Wes Welker’s punt return drop inside of the five-yard line). Jack Del Rio and John Fox have worked together two season (their first was the year Carolina went to the Super Bowl, Del Rio left to coach the Jaguars after that), both seasons their defense has been ranked second in the NFL. This is their third season, the team would be well off with basically anyone at quarterback. Who couldn’t throw to Demaryius Thomas, Eric Decker, Wes Welker and Julius Thomas? Now you throw Peyton into that mix and that’s 30-40 points a game, with a Top 10 NFL defense on the other side and one of the games best punt returners/kick returners.

I am really not this cocky about that team and I am sorry for coming off that way, I just got out of a Twitter conversation in which someone (I assume a 49ers fan) was letting me know that Colin Kaepernick is better than Peyton Manning. It’s hard to convince any Broncos fan that any new quarterback is anything other than a flavor of the day. We have witnessed Tim Tebow, through multiple seasons and see that two years later he is out of the NFL. That wasn’t Tebow winning as much as it was Denver’s defense and special teams coming through when it was clutch. Cue the 49ers, I’d like to say the Redskins too, but Mike Shanahan is an offensive genius and I think this year the Panthers could fit back into that mold. Ron Rivera has them with a stout defense again and Cam Newton just needs to air it out three to four times a game.

If the Giants are able to put together a running game, they can expose the Broncos up the middle probably. Wesley Woodyard (Denver’s middle linebacker) has just started practicing today (Thursday) and although he is good, he’s playing mike for the first time in his career and not at 100 percent. Denver would need to bring up strong safety Duke Ihenacho to assist and at that point Eli’s got the deep center over the top with only Rahim Moore to beat.

Another thing is the offensive play count, there has been much said about Philadelphia’s offensive play count, but Denver can demolish that. In the Ravens game, the Broncos only had 68 plays the whole game and exactly half of those came in the first half. In the third week of preseason, Manning had 33 plays in the first quarter and 23 plays in the second quarter (56 plays in one half). Philly had 77 in their entire game Monday night. I guess for the record in 2012, the average was 64 offensive plays per game. There are things in the Broncos arsenal that I don’t think that we will see until deep into the season, but putting up with a play count like that is going to be nearly impossible for any defense to deal with for long at 5,280 feet above sea level.

Then again, that whole thing is super hyped up. Patriots put up 94 offensive snaps in Week 1 and they damn near lost to the Buffalo Bills.

I see that you guys just put Dan Conner on season ending injured reserve, I am sure that doesn’t even really effect you though. You guys are so strong in your front seven.

Keefe: Another day, another devastating injury for the Giants. (And another devastating injury for the Yankees too as Brett Gardner hurt his left oblique striking out tonight and might be done for the season.)

Offensive play counts seem to the cool thing to care about and keep track of in the NFL now since it supposedly gives you a better chance to win. But like you said the Patriots nearly lost to the Bills (the Bills!) even with their high play total.

You mention the Giants running game possibly exposing the Broncos defense, but that would mean the Giants would have to have a running game, which they may not if Wilson is bad or fumbles again or if Da’Rel Scott plays or if Brandon Jacobs plays.

There is a lot at stake in this game. For the Giants, they need to bounce back off their six-turnover performance in Week 1 and avoid going 0-2. For the Broncos, they need to continue to prove they are the best team in the league and that Week 1 wasn’t just them taking advantage of a team rebuilding off a Super Bowl. And for Eli and Peyton it’s obviously much deeper than both of those things when it’s come to their personal rivalry, their family, their legacies and the perception of both.

It’s been almost four years since the two teams met and unless they meet in the Super Bowl between now and 2017, it will be another four until they meet again. What do you expect to happen on Sunday this time around in the Giants-Broncos meeting and the Manning Bowl?

Henson: Champ Bailey has just been ruled out for the Giants game on Sunday by John Fox. I don’t think that we were really expecting him anyway for this game and truthfully, no one is positive whether or not Bailey is needed at this point. Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie was targeted once in Week One, Joe Flacco sees Chris Harris laughing his ass off in Flacco’s nightmares. Tony Carter is one of the fastest players in the NFL and plays corner like he is a computer character on Madden who has been set to 99 everything and runs fundamentals perfectly.

Good news for New York is that Prince Amukamara is likely to play, I assume he takes Demaryius Thomas? And Eric Decker has already declared that he would have a better game, privately to Peyton Manning (Manning gives the offense drop statistics in their lockers after the game with that player’s name highlighted, Decker had four and a fumble last week).

Last season, Dennis Allen left the Denver Broncos as their defensive coordinator and took over the head coaching job for the Oakland Raiders. During Week 14, Allen’s Father passed away. The Broncos could have easily stomped on the Raiders, but instead turned in an incredibly conservative game and opted for field goals instead of touchdowns on four different scoring opportunities. Peyton threw for one touchdown and Knowshon Moreno ran for one off of a defensive fumble recover that ended on the Raiders’ two-yard line.

I say that story, to say this. I don’t think that anyone is going to run away with this game, if it gets to the point where Denver can offer a beat down, they won’t. The Giants are not the Baltimore Ravens. If the Giants are the ones to shift into fifth gear early, then of course Denver will attempt to keep up, but the Broncos won’t pile it on in New York. Fox used to coach there, Eli is Peyton’s brother and it’s an NFC vs. AFC game. What I do expect is for the Giants to get a turnover or two, because as bad as New Yorkers perceive David Wilson to be at fumbling, Ronnie Hillman is worse, off the top of my head, I think that he fumbled four times in the preseason, five, but one wasn’t given a red flag by the opposing coach like it should have.

Denver’s defense focuses on shutting down the opposing teams best player, so Victor Cruz may not have the greatest game, but Eli will have a ton of yards. Second-year undrafted linebacker Danny Trevathan (the one who fumbled the ball at the one-yard line, instead of scoring last week) has shut down nearly every tight end, including Jimmy Graham dating back to last season.

So, my prediction would be Broncos by two scores, unless they decide to feature Ronnie Hillman for some reason. Who covers Wes Welker? Mark Herzlich? Aaron Ross? Denver uses Welker as their ground game, a six-yard pass to Welker is just as good as a six yard run by Moreno, Montee Ball or Hillman. If you put Ross on Herzlich, how do the Giants account for Julius Thomas? It’s just too much for most, if any, defense to contain. The Broncos aren’t the 2007 New England Patriots, but Denver’s receivers are much better.

There is a huge amount of respect for the Giants receivers in Denver though, here is John Fox moments ago on your receivers, “Very formidable. Just their passing game in general — you saw what they did last week against Dallas, which is a very capable crew. Really, the difference in that game was turnovers, but otherwise offensively I think — in particular the passing game — they were right up there as far as top performances in the league.”

So there you have it, let’s see how many combined points this game can go for.

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NFL Week 2 Picks

The Giants had the “Disaster in Dallas” on Sunday night with a six-turnover loss and I just had “The Disaster” in Week 1 with my picks.

Can you have a must-win game in Week 2? Yes, you can because the Giants do.

(I opened my 2012 NFL Week 2 Picks with that same question. I’m hoping I won’t have to use it in 2014.)

OK, maybe it’s not a “must-win game” because the Giants could bounce back from an 0-2 record even if they have to go on the road to Carolina and Kansas City in Weeks 3 and 4. But maybe I’m just saying it’s not a must-win game because the Giants have a very good chance of losing to the Broncos (and Vegas believes they will) and if they do then technically the season would be over if they lose a must-win game. So let’s not classify this game as anything (since I’m too scared to) and how about the Giants just win an important home game?

Since the “Disaster in Dallas,” the Giants have signed Brandon Jacobs, who was last with the team for the 2011 Super Bowl season before performing and talking his way out of town. And the Giants signed Jacobs because David Wilson destroyed the season opener and all Wilson’s done since that game is gotten into Twitter fights with upset Giants fans and angry fantasy team owners, which is exactly what you want your 22-year-old No. 1 running back doing in the days following him being benched.

But if the Giants had the “Disaster in Dallas” then I’m going to have to also name my Week 1 Picks, which actually went worse than the Giants’ six-turnover performance against the Cowboys. So I’m calling the Week 1 Picks just “The Disaster” because that’s what it was. A 3-12-1 week to start the season (I actually went 7-8-1 in my picks pool, so I’m not sure how I managed that much of a difference) is embarrassing. But unlike CC Sabathia, when I say I’m going to try to figure things out and be better, I really am. Even if like CC, I put my season in an early hole and it might take a while to get back to respectability and over .500, I’m going to get back on track. No fake accountability here.

Week 2 … let’s go!

(Home team in caps)

New York Jets +11.5 over NEW ENGLAND
Last week I let Mike Hurley tell me that the Patriots blowing out the Bills was “a guarantee.” “A guarantee” he said! Everyone knows how guarantees go when it comes to NFL picks. So I went along with Hurley and his Patriots needed a last-second field goal to put away the Bills.

This week I’m going the way I wanted to go lat week which is against the Patriots because I don’t think they’re that good (there not) and their best receiver is Julian Edelman (yes, that Julian Edelman) and because my friend Scott sent me a 717-word email with the subject “Why you should bet the Pats even at -13.” (To be fair, Scott is a Patriots fan and would probably bet them even at -42.)

The Jets won’t be able to score because not only are they the Jets, but Geno Smith is their quarterback and they had trouble scoring against Tampa Bay at home. So that means I’m reeling on the Jets defense (which means I’m relying on Rex Ryan) and Tom Brady to not be able to score at will. Wait. Why am I picking the Jets again?

PHILADELPHIA -8 over San Diego
I don’t know if I buy the Chip Kelly offense hype. I don’t want to because that doesn’t mean good things for the Giants. But I’m going to buy it this week with the Chargers coming across the country for a 1:05 game after losing to the Texans in San Diego in the late edition of Monday Night Football.

BALTIMORE -7 over Cleveland
The defending champions were embarrassed in Denver to the point that their season and offseason and future have been called into question since last Thursday night. What better way to turn the negativity around than to have Brandon Weeden and the Browns come to town? The answer is none. There isn’t a better way to get your season on track than to face Weeden and the Browns at home.

HOUSTON -9.5 over Tennessee
I’m not a fan of taking the Texans with a line this high, but I’m also not a fan of needing Jake Locker to cover a game for me. And when in doubt, pick against Jake Locker.

Miami +3 over INDIANAPOLIS
Last week I said, “Because I initially picked the Dolphins to cover here and then switch my pick to the Browns like a ninth-grade U.S. History Scantron test, I know the Browns are going to lose and their offseason hype bandwagon is going to stall.”

So I’m going to give the Dolphins another chance because I screwed them over in Week 1 (and in turn they screwed me over).

Carolina -3 over BUFFALO
The Bills surprised everyone when they nearly upset the Patriots in Week 1. The problem is the Bills and their fans are likely proud of their effort against the Patriots and feel as though their loss on a last-second field goal was sort of a victory. That’s why they’re the Bills. And that’s why I will pick against them.

ATLANTA -7 over St. Louis
All of these seven-plus lines this week are making me think this could be a make-or-break week given my record from Week 1, and it probably will be because I keep picking the home team and favorite to cover in them. It’s no different here with the Falcons returning home where they are just like the Saints when it comes to home-field advantage.

GREEN BAY -7.5 over Washington
The Packers lost a revenge game and are coming home where it’s nearly impossible to win unless you’re the Giants and it’s the playoffs and they’re playing a Washington defense that was embarrassed by Chip Kelly’s college football and an offense led by a rusty second-year quarterback coming off knee surgery. I’m going to bank on the Packers, who haven’t lost back-to-back games in three years coming out with a purpose and helping my picks and my rooting interest in the NFC East in this one.

Dallas +3 over KANSAS CITY
I’m not going to sit and here tell you the Giants should have beaten the Cowboys even though they lost 36-31 despite making six turnovers. But I am here to tell you that I don’t think the combination of Andy Reid and Alex Smith is going to do much against legitimate teams even if Reid knows the NFC East better than any opposing head coach in the league.

Minnesota +6.5 over CHICAGO
It would be much easier to pick against the Vikings if my girlfriend wasn’t a Vikings fan and if they had just missed the playoffs last year and I didn’t keep thinking they were actually a “playoff” team because really Adrian Peterson was a playoff team and the Vikings were just the same old Vikings.

New Orleans -4 over TAMPA BAY
Every once in a while there is a line that comes out that makes you think “I need to jump all over this before they realize they entered it wrong.” This is one of those games. But it’s always these games that turn out to be the nail-biter. And because of that and because the Saints outside of the Superdome are not the same team as they are in it, it won’t surprise me if Drew Brees needs to go down the field with under two minutes and no timeouts to win, but not cover.

Detroit -2.5 over ARIZONA
I will always go against Carson Palmer. Always. When the line is this low it just makes it that much easier for me to do so.

OAKLAND -6 over Jacksonville
Somewhere someone who isn’t a Raiders fan or a Jaguars fan is going to bet on this game and watch it in its entirety. Think about that. (I used that write-up twice in Week 1 and will probably use it for every Jaguars game for the season because what else am I going to say about the Jaguars? Unless they finally realize they should sign Tim Tebow.)

NEW YORK GIANTS +5.5 over Denver
The last thing Eli needs to do to officially be able to tell Peyton to “Shut up” at Thanksgiving every Thanksgiving forever is to beat him directly.

San Francisco +2.5 over SEATTLE
I’m hoping for the Seahawks hype bandwagon to come to a crashing halt the way I used to watch The Weather Channel religiously in high school during the winter the night before a test or a project was due. The 49ers can start that process.

Pittsburgh +7 over CINCINNATI
The Steelers look ready to go into rebuild mode, especially when they’re losing to the Titans at home. But even though the Steelers are nowhere near the Super Bowl team they were three years ago, I’m not ready yet to start taking the Bengals to cover a touchdown at home against a team they have trouble barely beating in a nasty division rival matchup. Prove to me that you mean business, Cincinnati, and then we can talk.

Last week: 3-12-1

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