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Tag: Peyton Manning

Blogs • Giants • NFL

Jan 30, 2014

Super Bowl XLVIII Pick

After an up-and-down picks season that mirrored the Giants’ season, there’s just one pick left to make.

When your team isn’t in the Super Bowl, it’s devastating. Not only because it means your season is over or has been over and there’s no hope at winning the Super Bowl, which should be every fan’s aspiration every season, but because the two weeks between Championship Weekend and Super Bowl Sunday are the two most painful weeks in sports and the conversations and hype won’t involve your team.

The last two weeks have revolved around Richard Sherman’s postgame rant, Marshawn Lynch’s decision to not entertain the media’s unnecessary questions and Peyton Manning’s legacy. If it weren’t for these topics, Radio Row would have spent the last two weeks only reciting weather reports and forecasts. And even with the top-rated offense and defense and the two No. 1 seeds meeting, the weather managed to be the most talked about storyline.

Those who don’t attend the Super Bowl are kept in the loop by the media who do. And when you’re a media member who’s given a free all-expenses-paid trip at the end of January/beginning of February, of course you don’t want to go to New York/New Jersey. You want to be in Miami or New Orleans or San Diego or Tampa or somewhere with a dome and climate control. You want to be able to enjoy the week or two on the company dime and not have to worry about how you’re going to fit coats, jackets, fleeces, hats and gloves in your suitcase or wondering how many pairs of socks you need to wear to go do your job. But it’s a “job” (sort of) and every media member who complained about the weather since arriving in New York/New Jersey should be embarrassed the way those who complain about the quality of coffee on Amtrak should be.

But aside from whether Richard Sherman was out of line or if Marshawn Lynch owes it to anyone to talk about football or if Peyton Manning HAS to win this game or if it will be cold and windy at MetLife Stadium on Sunday, there’s something more important: the last pick of the season.

Looking back at my 2013 picks season is probably something I will only do this once, or rather something I should only do this once. I’m sure Eli Manning doesn’t want to be relive his three INTs in Week 1 or his four INTs in Week 2 or his three INTs in Week 5 or his three INTs in Week 6 or his five INTs in Week 15 and I don’t want to relive this mediocre season. As I said several times throughout the season, my picks season mirrored the Giants’ season, so let’s look back at how I did during the regular season in comparison to the Giants’ scores.

Week 1: Cowboys 36, Giants 31 (3-12-1)
Week 2: Broncos 41, Giants 23 (7-8-1)
Week 3: Panthers 38, Giants 0 (7-8-1)
Week 4: Chiefs 31, Giants 7 (7-7-1)
Week 5: Eagles 36, Giants 21 (5-9-0)
Week 6: Bears 27, Giants 21 (5-9-0)
Week 7: Giants 23, Vikings 7 (9-6-0)
Week 8: Giants 15, Eagles 7 (7-6-0)
Week 9: BYE (6-6-1)
Week 10: Giants 24, Raiders 20 (9-5-0)
Week 11: Giants 27, Packers 13 (5-8-2)
Week 12: Cowboys 24, Giants 21 (4-10-0)
Week 13: Giants 24, Redskins 17 (8-7-1)
Week 14: Chargers 37, Giants 14 (9-7-0)
Week 15: Seahawks 23, Giants 0 (10-5-1)
Week 16: Giants 23, Lions 20 (OT) (3-13-0)
Week 17: Giants 20, Redskins 6 (10-6-0)

So far this postseason, I’m 3-6-1 in the 10 games. And along with the regular season, that’s 265 picks down. One to go.

DENVER -2.5 over Seattle
This pick is more about me wanting Peyton Manning to win than wanting the Broncos to win or the Seahawks to lose.

Four years ago, I rooted hard for Peyton to win his second Super Bowl (not just to make sure that Sean Payton and Jeremy Shockey didn’t win, though it was a large part of it) but for Peyton to cement his own legacy (there’s that word again) as the best quarterback ever. This was for personal reasons created during my time living in Boston in college. But Peyton didn’t win Super Bowl XLIV because of a Pierre Garcon drop, an onside kick and his own pick-six. The following year he was knocked out in the first round by the Jets, the year after that he missed the entire season and then last year his season was ended by a 70-yard, game-tying touchdown pass and a field goal in double overtime.

Peyton Manning is 37 years old and even though he might be getting better with age, he isn’t getting any younger and the number of potential trips to the Super Bowl is dwindling and championship trips aren’t likely to come with as much ease as this one did (Hello, Tom Brady). And with rumors and reports that this could be Peyton’s last game (win or lose, I don’t believe it) because of his neck and health, this might be his last chance to take the title of The Greatest of All Time.

If Eli can’t defend the Manning name on his own field then the right man to do so is Peyton.

Last week: 0-2-0
Playoffs: 3-6-1
Regular Season: 117-138-10

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Blogs • Giants

Jan 16, 2014

NFL Championship Weekend Picks

There are only two Sundays left in the season and three picks left to make in what are the best two possible Championship Game matchups.

There is so much at stake for all four teams and their quarterbacks and their coaches this weekend that is almost feels like Roger Goodell was somehow able to produce the matchups for the AFC and NFC Championship Games. But we know that’s not possible. It’s impossible. A commissioner of a league can’t determine which teams reach their sport’s final four. You probably wouldn’t have gotten the best of payouts if you had done a futures wager on the matchups this weekend, but it was predictable way before the first week of the season, way before Eli Manning threw an interception on his first pass attempt of the season in that first week. (What? You thought I would forget about Eli Manning in my picks even though he hasn’t played in a meaningful game since Nov. 24?)

So here we are in the last second-to-last football Sunday of the season with 256 picks down and three to go.

New England +5.5 over DENVER
It feels weird that this will be the early game on Sunday, but when you have a West Coast team hosting one of the two games, this is what happens. Peyton Manning-Tom Brady won’t feel the same or as important as it should at 3 p.m.rather than in darkness with one of the two Super Bowl teams already known and a legacy-changing game on tap. But the best part about this game taking place is that it will actually take place and we won’t have to watch anymore storylines get squeezed out of it the way NBC kept reaching for new ideas for post-Michael Scott episodes of The Office.

Four years ago on the Friday before Super Bowl XLIV, I wrote the following:

This Sunday should be about Peyton Manning joining an elite group of quarterbacks and adding to his case as the best to ever play the game. It should be about Bill Polian justifying the benching of his starters so we don’t have to hear about how it backfired all offseason. It should be about the Colts taking over for the Patriots as the team and face of the NFL.

Instead of any of those things happening, the Colts lost, lost me my Colts -5 pick, gave Jeremy Shockey a Super Bowl ring and made everyone forget that Peyton Manning had gotten over the Super Bowl hump three years prior the way that people around here forget that A-Rod single-handedly won the Yankees the 2009 World Series. Now Peyton is being given another chance to get back to the Super Bowl and get that elusive second ring that many believe would put him on top of all all-time quarterback debates.

There is so much at stake for the legacies of Peyton Manning and Tom Brady that it’s hard to decide who has more to win or lose with a win or loss (though it won’t matter for anyone if the Seahawks or 49ers win the Super Bowl). When I try to sort out the history involved with this matchup and if either of the two go on to win at MetLife in two weeks, I feel like I’m filling out a W-4, except in this case I can’t call my mom to ask if I should be putting a “0,” “1,” or “2” in the designated space.

Peyton Manning is playing in his third AFC Championship Game (all against the Patriots) and needs to win this week and again in two weeks if he really wants to be in or lead the Best Quarterback Ever conversation, which I’m pretty sure is the only thing he cares about in his life. If he wins this weekend, he will be one win away from returning to the Super Bowl after two seasons removed from potential career-ending neck injuries, and he will be one win away from winning his second Super Bowl that Pierre Garcon dropped for him four years ago.

Tom Brady is playing in his eighth AFC Championship Game in 12 years and is still searching for Super Bowl No. 4 thanks to Eli Manning. But if he wins on Sunday, it will be his sixth AFC title and he will have been the starting quarterback for the Patriots in the Super Bowl at age 24 and also at age 36, which seems like the most amazing and ridiculous TB12 fact.

Peyton Manning vs. Tom Brady has been about the Best Regular-Season Quarterback Ever vs. The Winningest Postseason Quarterback Ever, which has seemed appropriate for a guy that seems to be all about personal stats and records and another guy who only cares about the final score. One of them has to win on Sunday and then one of them will be one win away from becoming The Best Ever. Five points seems like too many to give with these two.

San Francisco +3.5 over SEATTLE
The No. 4 and No. 8 teams from My Super Bowl XLVIII Dilemma. On a neutral field, I would have to think the line for this game would be 0 or at most it would be Seattle -0.5 since they are being given that extra half point for being home in a Championship Game despite playing an evenly-matched divisional rival. The line is right where it should be and right where the 49ers should want it to be.

In the Colin Kaepernick era, the 49ers have played in Seattle twice and have lost both games. They lost 29-3 in Week 2 this year and they lost 42-13 in Week 16 last year. The difference in the 2013 game was Kaepernick’s three interceptions, the 49ers’ five turnovers (to the Seahawks’ one) and Marshawn Lynch’s 98 rushing yards along with his two rushing touchdowns and one receiving touchdown. The difference in the 2012 game was Russell Wilson’s four touchdown passes and Lynch’s 111 rushing yards along with a rushing and receiving touchdown. The 49ers have turned into a different team for their trips to CenturyLink Field, but this postseason, the 49ers have turned into a different altogether.

In my Wild-Card Weekend Picks, I said:

Usually every team has at least one letdown game during the year (and in the case of the 2007 Patriots, it comes in the Super Bowl … yes, I had to) and for the 49ers, you would have to say it came in their 27-7 Week 3 loss to the Colts since their 29-3 Week 2 loss to the Seahawks happened in Seattle. But since Week 3, the 49ers have been as good and consistent as any team in the league.

Since then, the 49ers have played their most complete football of the year, once on the road against one of the few elite quarterbacks in the game in a brutal place for road teams to play and again on the road against the best front seven in the game against a 2-seed coming off a week of rest.

The Seahawks were able to hold off the Saints (who might be the worst road team in the NFL, and certainly have the biggest contrast in play between the Superdome and the road) last week, but didn’t look great doing so after having embarrassed the Saints in Seattle in Week 13.

Everyone seems to be riding the Seahawks here because they’re home and because of the 12th Man and because of the way they handled the 49ers in Seattle this year and last. And everyone seems to be penciling in the Seahawks for New York City the way they were prior to their Week 16 home loss to the Cardinals. But the 49ers aren’t the Cardinals. They’re better. And right now they’re better than they have been all year.

Last week: 2-2-0
Regular Season: 117-136-10

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Blogs • NFL

Jan 3, 2014

My Super Bowl XLVIII Dilemma

The New York Football Giants aren’t going to win Super Bowl XLVIII, so it’s time figure out who it makes sense to root for and against this NFL postseason.

Someone will win Super Bowl XLVIII, but it won’t be the Giants.

With the Giants officially on Day 5 of the offseason (I say “officially” because you could make the case that some of them have been in offseason mode for weeks and some never even left it for the regular season) it’s the eve of the NFL playoffs and Wild-Card Weekend. Since the New York Football Giants aren’t going to the playoffs for the fourth time in five years and therefore won’t be going to The Dance at their own home on Feb. 2, I decided to dust off an idea I had for a column three years ago when I ranked the 12 playoff teams in order from which team I would most like to see win Super Bowl XLVIII to which team I don’t want to see win at all. Here it is:

1. Bengals
What is there not to like about the Bengals? Or should I say, what is there to not like about the Bengals? Unless you really hate gingers and therefore Andy Dalton or want to see the Bengals playoff win drought endure another year, there’s no reason to care if the Bengals win it all.

2. Colts
Out of the entire 2012 Quarterback Breakout Class, it’s possible that Andrew Luck has received the least amount of hype and attention for the player who was drafted first overall, had the highest expectations and career projection coming out of college and was being asked to take over a franchise from Peyton Manning. Luck hasn’t disappointed with back-to-back playoff appearances in his first two years, which were supposed to be rebuilding years in Indianapolis and hasn’t done anything in the spotlight to draw negative attention (at least since becoming a Colt since there was that whole private security detail that he employed on campus at Stanford).

A Colts Super Bowl win means a Chuck Pagano Super Bowl win. It also means a Jim Irsay Super Bowl win and what’s better than having a loudmouth owner who called out (and he had a point with what he said) the Peyton Manning Colts for not winning multiple Super Bowls?

3. Broncos
Three years ago I had the Peyton Manning Colts ranked first, but things have changed. I wouldn’t mind if Peyton got his second ring, but coming in the same year in which his brother threw a league-leading 27 interceptions, as a Giants fan it wouldn’t be the best situation.

If Pierre Garcon didn’t drop a pass that would have broken open Super Bowl XLIV or the Colts weren’t taken by surprise by an onside kick or if Peyton Manning himself didn’t throw a devastating pick-six then Peyton would already have his second ring, would be 2-0 in Super Bowls and considered the greatest ever. Instead he’s just the greatest regular-season quarterback ever not the greatest quarterback ever. I wouldn’t mind if that changed this February, I just wish it wouldn’t have to come in a year when Eli wasn’t so awful.

4. 49ers
The 49ers destroyed my 10-to-1 Championship Games parlay last season when they completed a 17-point comeback against the Falcons and won the NFC. I’m still upset about that when it comes to the 49ers, but nothing else.

5. Panthers
I’m still mad at the Panthers for their Super Bowl XXXVIII loss to the Patriots that gave the Patriots their second Super Bowl in three years. And I’m still mad at the Panthers, well mainly just Jake Delhomme, for destroying that divisional round game against the Cardinals in 2008 with five interceptions, costing me the Panthers -10 pick. But it’s 2013 and the Panthers’ Super Bowl loss to the Patriots was a decade ago (and if the Patriots don’t win Super Bowl XLVIII we will enter 2014 with it being a decade since their last championship despite many acting as though they won it as recently as last February) and Jake Delhomme is no longer a Panther or an NFL quarterback. And wouldn’t you be excited to watch the Panthers’ Super Bowl XLVIII DVD with the story about how Ron Rivera went from as close to being fired as you can be to leading the 1-2 Panthers to a championship?

6. Chiefs
If the Chiefs win the Super Bowl then that means the Eagles didn’t win the Super Bowl and it means Andy Reid has won a Super Bowl and the Philadelphia Eagles organization still hasn’t and that means chaos for the city of Philadelphia and Eagles fans. But if the Chiefs win the Super Bowl it means that Alex Smith was the quarterback who led them there and I’m not sure I want anything to do with a sport in which Alex Smith is a winner and possibly Super Bowl MVP.

7. Saints
Jeremy Shockey isn’t there to win another Super Bowl, so the Saints have moved up from their No. 8 spot in 2010. And without Shockey there, aside from Sean Payton wearing a visor, I have nothing against the Saints except for how they screwed me in the final minute against the Patriots and how they screwed me again against the Jets. The only reason I don’t want the Saints to win the Super Bowl is because everything I have come to believe about them and written about them and how they are a different team outside the Superdome will all be meaningless. And that’s because if the Saints win the Super Bowl, they will have won four road games and four outdoor games and that’s a scientific impossibility.

8. Seahawks
In a world where college coaches will do anything and I mean anything to get a better job, Pete Carroll is the poster boy for how to get ahead after he left USC with a two-year bowl ban and the elimination of 30 football scholarships for another shot at the NFL. Back in 2010, I didn’t care if the Seahawks won the Super Bowl (despite those things) and had them ranked third, but they aren’t entering the playoffs as a 7-9 division winner looking to make a mockery of the NFL’s postseason format, so that’s why they have fallen.

9. Packers
Here’s what I wrote about the Packers in my Week 15 Picks:

Since Aaron Rodgers has become the Packers starting quarterback, here’s how their seasons have finished:

2008: Missed playoffs
2009: Lost in Wild-Card round
2010: Won Super Bowl
2011: Lost in divisional round (first game)
2012: Lost in divisional round after beating Joe Webb and the Vikings in the Wild-Card round

So in the last five years with Rodgers as the starter, the Packers have won five playoff games with four of them coming in the same year. And if the “Miracle at the Meadowlands” doesn’t happen, the Packers don’t even make the playoffs in 2010 let alone win the Super Bowl.

I wrote all that because I was trying to show that Aaron Rodgers isn’t worthy of the “Best Player in the League” title he has seemingly been given in a league that boasts maybe the best two quarterbacks in the history of the game and the most dominant running back since Barry Sanders. And after two months without him playing, all it took was one season-saving 48-yard touchdown pass for everyone to push Peyton Manning, Tom Brady and Adrian Peterson and others like Drew Brees and LeSean McCoy aside for the Aaron Rodgers Is The Best campaign to return to form.

10. Chargers
In the same season in which Eli Manning threw 27 interceptions and lost to Philip Rivers and the Giants went 7-9 and missed the playoffs, it would be very bad if Rivers and the Chargers then went on to win the Super Bowl. I want the 2013 Giants season to be gone and forgotten and right now that process has started, but if the team Eli Manning said he wouldn’t play for and the quarterback the Giants would have possibly then had win the Super Bowl, Eli Manning and especially 2013 Eli Manning will be at the forefront of Super Bowl storylines for the next month.

11. Patriots
I once wrote how a Red Sox-Mets World Series would be the worst possible championship scenario for me and I’m thankful that I was only a month old when that scenario was created in 1986. My last two teams present the second-worst possible championship scenario for me.

Nothing has changed for me and my feelings for the Patriots over the last three years and because of that, here is what I wrote about them then:

There is no way I want the Patriots to win the Super Bowl. None at all. I would rather walk across the George Washington Bridge naked, during rush hour, while it’s freezing rain than see the Patriots win.

However, a Patriots’ championship would put a serious damper on the possibility of adding more chapters to The Last Night of the Patriots Dynasty book that I plan to write with Mike Hurley.

12. Eagles
This is my nightmare! Well, it’s just one of my nightmares. My real nightmare happened in October and October 2007 and October 2004. My hatred for the Eagles is so strong that last week I found myself rooting for the Cowboys in the winner-take-all Week 17 game and actually felt a little depressed after Kyle Orton ended the game with a Tony Romo-esque interception. That’s what the Eagles can do to me. They can make me not only root for the nearly-equally-hated Cowboys, but also have a Cowboys loss negatively change my mood when I should be happy and celebrating Jerry Jones’ Dallas disaster going another year without a Super Bowl.

If Philadelphia trades Cliff Lee to the Yankees between now and Super Bowl XLVIII I’m willing to at least think about changing their spot. But without The One That Got Away holding a Yankee Stadium press conference between now and Feb. 2, I want to hear anything but “Fly, Eagles Fly.”

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Blogs • Giants

Dec 26, 2013

NFL Week 17 Picks

It seems like it was just Week 1, but now it’s time to say goodbye to the 2013 regular season and get ready for the postseason.

It feels like just yesterday I was writing “Labor Day is the ultimate Catch-22” to start my Week 1 Picks column, the summer was coming to a close and there was still hope the New York Football Giants would be playing a home game for Super Bowl XLVIII. Now here we are with Christmas over and Week 17 and 2014 upon us. (Excuse me while I grab some tissues.)

There are just 27 games left to pick this season and after last week’s 3-13 disaster, a .500-or-better season has become the pipe dream I said it would be back in Week 13. I entered Week 16 needing to finish 28-15 to finish over .500 season, but that huge setback gives me a 104-126-9 record and means I will have to finish at least 25-2 to finish over .500. So if I am to finish over .500, it means I will endure an historical run ever and if you’re actually putting money on the picks, you will win a silly amount of money between now and the Super Bowl. (Or I will continue to crawl through this mediocre season.) I have said over and over how my picks season has mirrored this Giants season and with the Giants just playing to save face and salvage a win once again this week, it looks like I will be doing the same in Week 17.

This week 13 of the 16 games have playoff implications as of now. I say as of now because by 4:00 on Sunday there will be some late afternoon games that mean as much as Giants-Redskins or Vikings-Lions or Titans-Texans do. Right now, there isn’t one playoff team that has locked up their seed. The problem with those 13 playoff implication games is that in eight of them, one of the teams has absolutely nothing at stake. And with 60 minutes of football separating those eight teams from their playoff-less season and the offseason and putting the lost year behind them, it’s hard to gauge what type of effort you might get in those games. One game stands between 14 of the league’s 32 teams and eight months until their next game.

Carolina -6.5 over ATLANTA
The Panthers are going to the playoffs for the first time since 2008 and Jake Delhomme’s five-pick game when the Panthers were 10-point favorites against the Cardinals. But the Panthers will have to win this Sunday to win the NFC South and get a bye because the Saints are home against the Buccaneers and that’s a guaranteed win for the Saints, and if the Saints are to win and the Panthers lose then the Saints win the South and get the bye.

TENNESSEE -7 over Houston
There it is! It’s that Game of the Week …

Somewhere someone who isn’t a Titans or Texans fan is going to bet on this game and watch it in its entirety. Think about that.

(Actually this isn’t the only one. There are two more.)

PITTSBURGH -7 over Cleveland
The Steelers are in if they win and the Ravens, Dolphins and Chargers lose. It seems unlikely and insane, but if you go back to 2006, here’s were the two scenarios the Giants needed to happen to reach the playoffs:

1. Win + Minnesota loss or tie + Atlanta loss + Philadelphia win or tie + Seattle win or tie.

OR

2. Win + Minnesota loss or tie + Atlanta loss + Philadelphia win or tie + San Francisco loss or tie.

The Giants lost 30-7 to the Saints, but the Vikings, Falcons, Seahawks and 49ers all lost too, and the Giants basically hit the biggest parlay ever.

I don’t like the Steelers and I never thought I would want them to succeed, but I’m pulling for them to pull this off.

NEW YORK -3.5 over Washington
There it is! It’s that Game of the Week …

Somewhere someone who isn’t a Giants or Redskins fan is going to bet on this game and watch it in its entirety. Think about that.

(It’s the second of these games.)

There will be plenty of Giants’ non-postseason postseason stuff coming on Monday.

Baltimore +6.5 over CINCINNATI
The Ravens have two ways to get into the playoffs: 1.) Win and have the Dolphins or Chargers lose or 2.) Have the Dolphins, Chargers and Steelers lose. Eleven of the Ravens’ 15 games have been decided by eight points or less, so while I don’t think they will win in Cincinnati, it will likely be a close game.

INDIANAPOLIS -11 over Jacksonville
The 2013 season has been a tale of two seasons for the Jaguars: the pre-bye Jaguars and the post-bye Jaguars. From Weeks 1-8, the Jaguars were 0-8 and lost by 26, 10, 28, 34, 14, 16, 18 and 32 points. But then came their bye and since their bye, they are 4-3. Unfortunately, this week we will see a glimpse of the 0-8 Jaguars with the Colts still playing for a first-round bye even if they won’t get it.

MIAMI -5.5 over New York Jets
This could be Rex Ryan’s last game as head coach of the Jets. I don’t think this should be the end for Rex with the Jets when you consider the team is at worst going to finish 7-9 and could be 8-8 in a year in which their quarterback was Geno Smith and their best receiver was Jeremy Kerley. They had wins over the Patriots and Saints and won in Atlanta back in Week 5 when people thought being the 2012 NFC 1-seed on the road was still a big deal. If Rex deserved to be fired, he deserved to be fired after the 2011 or 2012 season, but Woody Johnson let him hang around for 2013 and he has earned at least another year. But the Jets get things right as often as the Mets do and I fully expect Rex to be fired.

MINNESOTA -3 over Detroit
There it is! It’s that Game of the Week …

Somewhere someone who isn’t a Vikings or Lions fan is going to bet on this game and watch it in its entirety. Think about that.

(And out third completely meaningless game of the week.)

Green Bay -3 over CHICAGO
What if the Dodgers lost Clayton Kershaw for the final months of the season and stumbled to the finish line, but were lucky enough to have the Giants also stumble down the stretch to have Game 162 be winner-take-all for the NL West and now Kershaw is available and set to start against the Giants? Well, that’s what we have for Bears-Packers with the best quarterback in the league returning for the last game of the season with a chance to not only put his team into the playoffs, but end the franchise’s rival’s season. The Bears had their chance to take care of business in Philadelphia last week and were run out of the building on Sunday Night Football and that loss will cost them their season. Goodnight, Chicago. Last one out of Soldier Field, turn off the lights.

NEW ENGLAND -9 over Buffalo
The Ravens couldn’t deliver for me last week against the Patriots and the Dolphins were shut out by the Bills, so my dream of having the Patriots’ division title being at stake in Week 17 was destroyed. The Patriots have won the AFC East again and will beat the Bills and earn the 2-seed and a first-round bye in the playoffs and end up playing one challenging playoff game in three weeks in Denver for a trip to the Super Bowl. I wish the Giants could play in the AFC East.

NEW ORLEANS -13 over Tampa Bay
Let’s simplify picking and gambling. Whenever you pick a favorite, you need two things to happen: 1.) You need the team to win and 2.) You need the team to cover by a certain amount of points. We know the the Saints are going to win this game. That’s not opinion, that’s fact. So No. 1 is taken care of. That leaves No. 2, which won’t be easy, but when you know the Saints are already going to win, how can you not pick them to cover? I would rather need the Saints to blow out the Buccaneers than need the Buccaneers to keep a game close in the Superdome with the offseason in sight.

Denver -13 over OAKLAND
The last time Peyton Manning took over the single-season touchdown record with 49 in 2004, Tom Brady broke it three years later with 50. Manning has the record again with 51 after throwing four touchdowns against the Texans last week and I would think that he wants to put it out of reach of getting broken soon or ever again. With the Patriots playing the Bills and going to beat the Bills, the Broncos will have to win this game to lock up the 1-seed in the AFC, which they have to get if they want to beat the Patriots in the inevitable AFC Championship Game.

ARIZONA 0 over San Francisco
You know there’s a problem with the way sports put so much stock into division titles when the Cardinals could finish the season with 11 wins and not make the playoffs. And even if the Cardinals do beat the 49ers, they aren’t going to make the playoffs because the 10-5 Saints are going to beat the Buccaneers and end the Cardinals’ season. Meanwhile, the NFC East will be won by either a 10-win team or a nine-win team, the NFC North will be won by a nine-win team or an eight-win team, and both the NFC North and South could be won by 10-win teams. There’s no chance the Saints will lose, so I’m rooting for the Cardinals to win this game, finish 11-5 and give talking heads the chance to talk about changing the NFL playoff format (which is usually fine) for at least a week.

Kansas City +9 over SAN DIEGO
The only way the Chargers can get in is if the Ravens lose to the Bengals and the Dolphins lose to the Jets and then they beat the Chiefs. But by the time this game kicks off, the Chargers will know if they have anything to play for and I don’t think they will because I think the Dolphins beat the Jets.

SEATTLE -11.5 over St. Louis
Everyone has talked about whether or not any team can beat the Seahawks in Seattle and the Cardinals proved that teams can. The Seahawks are going to get their division title and 1-seed by beating the Rams, but that Week 16 loss to the Cardinals seems to have changed the minds of a lot of people who though the Seahawks would walk through their two playoff games to MetLife.

DALLAS +7 over Philadelphia
This isn’t as bad as if the Red Sox and Mets were to meet in the World Series, but it’s in the next tier below that. One team has to win (yes, I do realize they could tie) and one team has to win the NFC East and one team has to go to the playoffs. I have mulled over this decision for the last few weeks when it looked like this matchup and scenario would take place and I couldn’t figure out who to root or, but the Tony Romo situation has made it easy for me to pick for the Cowboys. With Romo undergoing back surgery and out for the season, if the Cowboys can win this game with Kyle Orton and reach the playoffs for the first time since 2009 and just the fifth time since 1999 and possibly win a playoff game then what kind of offseason Cowboys quarterback/future debate/circus are we looking at? An epic one.

Last week: 3-13-0
Season: 104-126-9

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Blogs • Giants • NFL

Dec 18, 2013

NFL Week 16 Picks

The Giants’ season has been over for a month, but the picks season still has 43 games to go.

It’s feel like the NFL season has already ended to me and that’s because the Giants haven’t played a meaningful game sine their Week 12 loss to the Cowboys a month ago. Now I’m stuck looking at an under-.500 picks season, there’s no fantasy football left to be played and the amount of games available to wager on will start to dwindle as teams lock up playoff berth and home-field advantage or mail it in for the last two weeks.

With Christmas Eve, Christmas and New Year’s Eve all in the next 13 days, football takes a backseat to the holiday season. But once New Year’s ends, football is back with Wild-Card Weekend and that’s when I lean heavily on football to get through the frigid January weather in the northeast. (Thankfully this year we have the Winter Olympics and therefore Olympic hockey to get through the February weather.)

But before I can even start to think about playoff football, I have to finish strong here in the last two weeks of the regular season with my picks. I’m currently 101-113-9 and 43 games left in the season, including playoffs, I have to finish at least 28-15 to finish over .500 for the season. It’s not going to be easy, but I have a 10-5-1 Week 15 to build off of.

Miami -3 over BUFFALO
It’s Week 16 and there is a lot on the line. Out of the 16 games, 13 of them have playoff implications with five divisions and eight playoffs spots still available. One of those games is this one because if the Dolphins beat the Bills and the Patriots lose to the Ravens, the Dolphins will be one game back of the Patriots with one to play. Sure, the Patriots play the Bills next week and will win that game and the Dolphins really don’t have a chance to win the AFC East (this is half the truth and half a reverse jinx attempt), but let me at least believe for a week, Football Gods?

CAROLINA -3.5 over New Orleans
The Saints have put themselves in a bad spot. If the NFC playoffs were to go through New Orleans, the Saints would easily be the NFC’s representative in the Super Bowl. But because of the Saints’ 3-4 road record (they are 7-0 at home) with brutal losses to the Patriots, Jets and Rams, the Saints are now playing for the NFC South title in Carolina. If this game were at the Superdome, I would be all about the Saints like always. But on the road, I’m going against them … like always.

Dallas -3 over WASHINGTON
Come on, this one is easy. There’s no doubt in my mind that the Cowboys will go to D.C. and walk all over the Redskins to make the Week 17 Cowboys-Eagles game in Dallas the NFC East Championship Game. Every year the Cowboys find themselves playing in a win-or-go-home situation in Week 17 and this year will be no different.

ST. LOUIS -4.5 over Tampa Bay
Did you know the Rams have more wins (6) than the Giants (5)? Sure, two of those wins came against Jacksonville and Houston, but the Rams did beat Arizona (9-5), Indianapolis (9-5), Chicago (8-6) and New Orleans (10-4). No, the Rams wouldn’t have been a playoff team if Sam Bradford didn’t get hurt considering they play in the same division as Seattle and San Francisco, but they are at least on the right track for the future, which is more than you can say about the New York Football Giants.

Cleveland +2 over NEW YORK JETS
You know who else has more wins the Giants? The Jets, that’s who. The Jets, who went weeks without throwing for a touchdown have more wins than a team just 23 months removed from winning the Super Bowl and a little over a year removed from looking like they could win the NFC East and possibly even have a first-round bye. No, things haven’t flipped in the New York football landscape (a terrible landscape to be a part of) and the Giants are still king, but it’s never a good look to finish a season worse than the Jets. Let’s go Browns!

KANSAS CITY -7 over Indianapolis
Here are the points against the Chiefs in their first nine games, which were all wins: 2, 16, 16, 7, 17, 7, 16, 17, 13. And here are the points aginst the Chiegs in their last five games: 27, 41, 35, 10, 31. I’m not sure what has happened to the Chiefs’ defense since their first loss of the season back in Week 11, but when the Raiders are putting up 31 on you at home it’s never good. Knowing that, I would normally shy away from the picking for the Chiefs to cover a touchdown at home, but this is the Colts we’re talking about and no playoff team has the ability to get run out of a building on the road like the Colts.

Minnesota +8 over CINCINNATI
I originally had the Bengals to cover here, but I thought more about it and the Vikings have covered for me so many times this year that I can’t turn my back on them now. (And my girlfriend, a Vikings fan, would probably give me a glare and not talk to me for at least 20 minutes upon finding out I picked against her Vikings.)

Denver -10.5 over HOUSTON
The same week in which reports come out that the Texans passed on Peyton Manning, Peyton returns to Reliant Stadium where he tormented the Texans for years. The last thing you want to do is pick against Peyton in a dome with the single-season touchdown record and the AFC’s No. 1 overall seed on the line. Maybe he will choke in January and the Broncos will lose in the divisional round, but when it comes to the regular season, Peyton Manning knows how to get the job done.

Tennessee -4.5 over JACKSONVILLE
There it is! It’s that Game of the Week …

Somewhere someone who isn’t a Titans or Jaguars fan is going to bet on this game and watch it in its entirety. Think about that.

SEATTLE -11 over Arizona
Carson Palmer in Seattle. Carson Palmer in Seattle. Carson Palmer in Seattle.

DETROIT -9.5 over New York Giants
I’m not sure what line would make me feel uncomfortable picking against the Giants right now, but 9.5 in Detroit certainly isn’t it. Maybe if this line were -13.5 or higher I would start to think twice about it, but even then, this Giants team has already started thinking about the Monday after Week 17 and a desperate Lions team at home only makes matters worse.

Oakland +10 over SAN DIEGO
I am always big on the Raiders covering against the Chargers and usually the line is a lot lower than 10. The Chargers have proven to be a December disaster in recent years and now that they have played themselves into an unlikely-but-still-possible position for the playoffs, I’m thinking the Raiders’ money line isn’t a bad decision here either.

GREEN BAY -2 over Pittsburgh
I have a feeling we are going to be looking at the NFC North being decided in Chicago next week between the Bears and Packers. You just know the Packers are going to win and then Aaron Rodgers will be back in Week 17 to face the Bears. That’s just how things happen. It’s what the Football Gods want.

BALTIMORE -2 over New England
It’s very weird to not see the “x” next to New England in the standings entering Week 16 to represent the Patriots’ clinched playoff berth. It’s even weirder not to see the “y” next to the “x” showing that the Patriots have also clinched the AFC East with two weeks left. The Patriots aren’t used to playing meaningful late-December games and now they will have to try and clinch the division on the road against the defending champions, who seem to pull off a different miracle each week.

Chicago +3 over PHILADELPHIA
Unfortunately, next week in Dallas, either the Cowboys or Eagles have to win. And one of those teams has to win the NFC East and make the playoffs. But that’s next week. This week it’s still easy to decide who to root against when it comes to an Eagles game.

SAN FRANCISCO -13 over Atlanta
This game would have been in every 10-point teaser this weekend if it weren’t Monday Night Football. But I can’t imagine a lot of people will want to create a 10-point teaser over two days and instead will end up taking the 49ers -13 by themselves on Monday night. That means this line isn’t going to stay at -13 for long and I am thankful it was there when I wrote this.

Last week: 10-5-1
Season: 101-113-9

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