fbpx

Tag: Michael Vick

Blogs • Giants • NFL

Oct 10, 2013

NFL Week 6 Picks

I finally broke up with the Giants after their loss to the Eagles. But then I took them back just in time for their game against the Bears.

Breaking up with the Giants is hard to do. I deleted their number, unfriended them on Facebook, put all the memories they gave me in a box that I then labeled “JOKE” and have even avoided using the word “giant” in any context, choosing to go with “huge,” “enormous” and “mammoth” among others. But guess what? I let them back in my life! I know, I know! I’m an idiot and at midnight on Thursday night when they’re 0-6 and Eli Manning, Tom Coughlin and Justin Tuck are making excuses like a sophomore in high school whose English midterm is late again (no, that wasn’t me…) you can all tell me “I told you so.” But this morning, with the thought of being still in the division thanks to the Cowboys, it was the equivalent of seeing a few late-night texts from the Giants or seeing a request that “New York Giants wants to be your friend” waiting for me on Facebook and I couldn’t help but give them what is now their third chance this season. I know I’m stupid, but just shut up for a minute and let me explain.

The difference this time is I’m fully prepared for the Giants to get beat up by the Bears and run out of Soldier Field like a drunk Packers fan wearing a foam cheesehead with his entire body painted green screaming “Bears suck!” during a Bears-Packers game. I’m not going into this game thinking the Giants are going to win or that they even have a real chance to win. I’m going into the game hoping that they have a Lloyd Christmas-Mary Swanson-like small chance or even smaller to stay in the game until the fourth quarter and then maybe Eli Manning will find his missing fourth-quarter magic or maybe Jay Cutler will hand the Giants a win the way he has handed so many other teams wins in his career. You’re still not sold? Neither am I really.

***

Apparently as the Giants season goes, my picks go. Week 5 was another train wreck that proved that logic and reasoning is pointless when it comes to the 2013 NFL. On top of it all, anything you have seen or learned or figured out is worthless at the end of each week and completely irrelevant in picking the following week. It’s almost as if the movie 50 First Dates has become me making my NFL picks. And for as bad as that movie was, my picks have been worse.

Week 6 … let’s go!

(Home team in caps)

New York Giants +7.5 over CHICAGO
This is the last time I will be picking the Giants. The absolute last time. This is it. It’s really it.

KANSAS CITY -8 over Oakland
Picking an Andy Reid-led team with Alex Smith as the starting quarterback (even if they are undefeated) this many times is sure to backfire at some point. But the Chiefs have won four of their five games by at least nine points and that’s good enough for me to pick against the Raiders on the road.

Philadelphia -1.5 over TAMPA BAY
It doesn’t matter if Michael Vick starts or Nick Foles starts or Nick Vick (the combination of the two that we saw against the Giants) starts against the Buccaneers. Any of those three options is better than Mike Glennon, who will be making his second career start following Josh Freeman’s release and the circus Greg Schiano created down in Tampa Bay. And if Glennon for some reason can’t play or is removed from the game, you know who his backup is? Dan Orlovsky, that’s who. The future is bright in Tampa Bay.

BALTIMORE +3 over Green Bay
I originally had Green Bay -3 in this game and because I switched it Green Bay is 100 percent going to cover. I have been down on the Ravens through five weeks, but their 26-23 win in Miami last week has made me a believer for at least Week 6 in the Ravens. And I don’t really trust the Packers away from home.

MINNESOTA -2.5 over Carolina
Need a good laugh? Here’s what I said about the Panthers last week:

I know Bill Parcells said, “You are what your record says you are,” and the Panthers are 1-2, but they are good.

Done laughing?

The Panthers repaid my praise for them by getting embarrassed by the Cardinals. (The Cardinals!) A 22-6 loss in a game that featured seven combined turnovers (Carolina had four and Arizona had three), including three picks for both Cam Newton and Carson Palmer.

Meanwhile the Vikings are coming off their bye and their first and season-saving win against the Steelers in London.

HOUSTON -7.5 over St. Louis
The Rams did manage to beat the Jaguars by two touchdowns to cover their 11.5-point spread, but the Jaguars were in the game for far too long and did lead for enough time that it made me think the Jaguars wouldn’t finish the season 0-16 and made me realize just how bad the 2008 Lions were to finish that season 0-16.

NEW YORK JETS -2.5 over Pittsburgh
I expected the J-E-T-S to get blown out of the Georgia Dome on Monday Night Football and instead they put together a 2011 Giants-esque game-winning drive to improve to 3-2 on the season. The Giants are 0-5 on the year, the Yankees’ season ended 11 days ago and in the Rangers’ most recent game they were run out of San Jose in a 9-2 loss. Maybe me picking the Jets this week will restore some order in the New York sports world.

Cincinnati -7.5 over BUFFALO
Last week someone named Jeff Tuel took over for an injured E.J. Manuel in the Bills’ 37-24 home loss to the Browns (who also lost their starter Brian Hoyer to a torn ACL and had to replace him with former start Brandon Weeden) on Thursday Night Football. (How great has Thursday Night Football for 17 weeks worked out?) How bad was Tuel? Bad enough that the Bills have signed someone named Thad Lewis off their practice squad to start over Tuel this week. Bills head coach Doug Marrone said, “Thad gives us the best chance to win,” but he’s wrong. He’s not wrong that Lewis is better than Tuel because he might be, though that’s not saying much. He’s wrong that the Bills have a chance to win this game. They don’t. Now we just need Lewis to be bad enough that the Bengals can cover.

SEATTLE -13.5 over Tennessee
Ryan Fitzpatrick finally gets a chance to start for the Titans and he gets the then-5-0 Chiefs (now 6-0) and the 4-1 Seahawks (soon to be 5-1). Sometimes things aren’t fair for Harvard graduates who get $59 million contracts with $24 million of guaranteed money.

DENVER -27 over Jacksonville
At no point would I feel nervous about taking the Broncos in this game. The Broncos beat the defending Super Bowl champions by 22 points in Week 1 and beat the Eagles by 32 points in Week 4. You don’t think they can beat the winless Jaguars by four touchdowns? The Rams managed to beat the Jaguars by two touchdowns last week.

SAN FRANCISCO -11.5 over Arizona
The Cardinals are on a mission to destroy my picks as best they can this season and so far they are succeeding. I can’t help that I want to pick against Carson Palmer every possible chance I get. Is that so wrong?

Since the 49ers were embarrassed in Seattle and Indianapolis in back-to-back weeks in Weeks 2 and 3, they are 2-0 and have outscored their opponents (St. Louis and Houston) 69-14. The NFC favorite that was supposed to go back to the Super Bowl this season is back after their two-week hiatus and now they need to put an end to the pesky, pick-destroying Cardinals.

New Orleans +1.5 over NEW ENGLAND
The Saints proved my whole theory about them being a different team outside the Superdome wrong with a win on the road at Soldier Field. But maybe that theory was only good for Saints teams of the past? Maybe the 2013 Saints are capable of winning road games against worthy opponents? Their two-point win over the Buccaneers said they weren’t, but now their eight-point win over the Bears says they are.

The difference in New Orleans is with Rob Ryan’s defense, which hasn’t allowed more than 18 points in a game this season (17, 14, 7, 17 and 18). In the past the Saints weren’t worried about giving up points knowing they could outscore any team in the league, especially at home, but now the Saints (at least through five games) appear to be a well-balanced team and that’s bad news for the rest of the NFC.

Washington +6.5 over DALLAS
I was nervous that the Cowboys were going to stop the 2013 Broncos train in the final minutes on Sunday, but Tony Romo put to rest my fears with a Tony Romo game-ending interception to keep the Giants mathematically involved in the NFC East despite having no wins. Now the Redskins are coming to the Big D with a chance to take over the division lead with a win and an Eagles loss. Everyone keeps talking about how the NFC East will be won by an 8-8 team or possibly even a 7-9 team. If it’s possible I’m pulling for a 6-10 team to come out of the East. The scary thing is the Giants would have to play .545 football the rest of the way and go 6-5 just to finish 6-10 at this point. Has anyone told Antrel Rolle this?

Indianapolis -2.5 over SAN DIEGO
I keep picking against the Colts and they keep making me pay. Thankfully, I jumped off the Chargers undefeated covering streak in time for their 10-point loss to the Raiders last week.

Last week: 5-9-0
Season: 29-44-4

Read More

Blogs • Giants • Giants Thoughts

Oct 9, 2013

Giants-Eagles Week 5 Thoughts: ‘Meltdown at the Meadowlands’

Don’t let the NFC East standings fool you. The Giants’ season is over.

I was nervous that after the way the first four weeks of the season have gone that the Eagles might present us with something like a “Miracle at the Meadowlands Part II.” But it actually ended up being worse. Much worse. I should have seen the “Meltdown at the Meadowlands” coming with the chance to save the season.

The Giants’ season is over. Yes, I’m finally ready to admit that. I don’t care that they’re still only two games back in the division with11 games to play. The Giants aren’t mathematically eliminated and with the Eagles and Cowboys leading the division at 2-3, they likely won’t be for some time. But how is a team that’s 0-5 and been outscored 182-82 and given up at least 31 points each game and just lost to Nick Vick (half a game of Michael Vick and half a game of Nick Foles) going to get it together by Thursday and then go into Soldier Field and win a game? They’re not.

Thinking, writing and talking about what happened on Sunday makes me feel like Lloyd Christmas watching Harry and Mary drive off, but let’s get to the Thoughts, none of which were positive about the Giants.

– “I think at the end of my career, I’ll be in the Hall of Fame. I know myself, and I know (when) I have guys around me that feel the same way, which I feel I do. When I get my opportunity, the sky is not the limit. I think it’s past that. You have to believe in yourself to do good things. This is how I feel.”

That’s what David Wilson told Newsday last October. At the time he had 87 yards on 15 carries and the memorable fumble on Opening Night against the Cowboys that got him benched.

What else did he say back then? Oh, not much …

“I’m like birth control. You have to believe in me. Like birth control, 99.9 percent of the time I’m going to come through for you.”

It didn’t end …

“I never know when that opportunity is coming, and that’s why you have to stay prepared. But when I do get that opportunity, I’m going to get lost in the moment and keep it going. Once I get my chance to go out there and play football and do what I do, I’m not going to want to let go of that.”

On Sunday, Wilson found the end zone for the first time this season and after giving the Giants a 7-0 lead, he completed back-to-back backflips. That’s right. Not one backflip, which would have been ridiculous enough for the way his season and the Giants’ season has gone, but TWO backflips, which was embarrassing for him, the Giants and their fans. But I guess when you have 146 rushing yards on 44 carries after five games, you can do whatever you want.

– It’s scary to think the numbers Eli Manning would put up and the amount of wins the Giants would have if any receiver could catch a perfectly thrown deep ball. Why won’t you catch the ball Hakeem Nicks and Rueben Randle? Why?

– Does Victor Cruz know that every time he doesn’t catch a ball intended for him it’s not because of pass interference? It’s awkward for everyone watching the game to watch Cruz throw a temper tantrum in the middle of an NFL field and stomp and stammer when he’s unable to make a play on a very catchable ball when it’s his fault and not the defender’s.

– Trumaine McBride had a chance to make two game-changing plays. He didn’t make either of them.

The first play was a missed opportunity to down a punt on the Eagles’ 1 in the first quarter, which led to the ball rolling into the end zone for a touchback. McBride beat the ball to the 1 and was just sitting there waiting for it and once it got there he fanned on it.

The second play was a missed interception on first-and-10 from the Eagles’ 29 that McBride let go right through his hands like Domenik Hixon trying to make a catch in the 2008 playoffs. Instead of an interception that would have given the Giants the ball with a 7-6 lead, DeSean Jackson hauled in a 56-yard catch that set up a LeSean McCoy touchdown three plays later.

So thank you, Trumaine McBRide. Thanks for showing up to MetLife Stadium on Sunday.

– Only Brandon Jacobs could fumble without getting touched or bumped or hit. That’s right Jacobs put a ball on the ground despite making contact with nothing except the air of MetLife Stadium.

Jacobs has 48 yards on 22 carries this season and his longest run has been for seven yards. Tom Coughlin doesn’t trust David Wilson, Andre Brown still has a broken leg and Da’Rel Scott is no longer a Giant. Good thing the Giants didn’t sign Willis McGahee when they had the chance.

– After all of the second-half collapses over the last decade and whatever the eff this season has been, it’s still hard to call for Tom Coughlin’s job because of those two February wins over the Patriots. But if Coughlin continues to make coaching decisions like he did against the Eagles, he’s going to make it easy for his job status to be put in jeopardy.

On the Eagles’ second possession of the game, the Eagles failed to convert a third-down attempt on third-and-9 from their own 48. A five-yard run left them facing a fourth-and-4 from the Giants’ 47. But an offensive holding penalty was called on the five-yard run and instead of declining the penalty and forcing the Eagles to punt or risk going for it on fourth-and-4 at basically midfield, Coughlin accepted the penalty, giving them a third-and-20 from their own 37. Now maybe Coughlin hasn’t seen every Giants-Eagles game during his tenure as Giants head coach, but 100 percent of the time the Eagles have faced a third-and-impossible, they have converted. So it was no surprise that Vick took off for a 34-yard run in a drive that would end with a field goal. Here you go, Philadelphia, here’s three free points!

And then there was the disaster at the beginning of the third quarter. The Eagles led 19-7 and Foles completed an 11-yard pass to McCoy on third-and-10 from the Eagles’ 27 for a first down, but replays showed McCoy might have not had possession when he went out of bounds on the catch. So what did Tom Coughlin do? He called timeout to give him more time to make his decision. (Goodbye first of three timeouts in the second half of a game you’re trailing 19-7 to save your season!) And then after getting extra time to make a decision, Coughlin challenged the play, putting his second timeout at risk in a 12-point game on an 11-yard pass that would have only given the Eagles a first down at their own 38. Now it looked like Coughlin was correct in challenging the play, but why risk two timeouts for one 11-yard play? And why risk it when no one ever has any idea what the ref is going to say when he emerges from under he good? Of course the play was upheld and the Giants lost two timeouts on one play.

– Eli Manning had three intentional grounding penalties. Not three intentional grounding penalties in a season. Three intentional grounding penalties in one afternoon.  And on top of that, Eli graced us with three more interceptions to bring his season total to 12. Eight touchdown and 12 interceptions in five games. No big deal, right?

Yes, several of the 12 interceptions have been unusual, but Eli isn’t doing himself any favors by trying to make a play on every play when he would be better suited taking a sack or throwing it out of bounds rather than trying to make throws underhand or with his left hand or letting balls go into triple coverage. I like to pretend that late in these games when Eli feels the pressure and an impending sack and doesn’t see anyone open for a reasonable throw he just screams, “Eff it!” and lets one fly as far as he can. The problem is all of these “Eff it!” throws are finding the other team.

– Hakeem Nicks’ effort getting on the field with the clock winding down on the Giants’ season on the play in which he didn’t correctly run his route leading to the third interception was … it was … just … like … ah who cares? It was a joke, that’s what it was.

– Trailing 36-21 with about three minutes to play and facing a fourth-and-28 on their own 19, the Giants punted. It didn’t matter if it was fourth-and-1 or fourth-and-10 or fourth-and-28 or fourth-and-99, the Giants waved the white flag. No, they most likely weren’t going to convert a fourth-and-28 (unless they were going against their own defense) and they certainly weren’t going to come back and win the game, but they didn’t even try. They gave up. After five games, I’m doing the same.

Read More

Blogs • Email Exchanges • Giants

Oct 4, 2013

Giants-Eagles Is Must-Win at MetLife

The Giants face a must-win game against the Eagles at MetLife in Week 5 and that means an email exchange with Brandon Gowton of Bleeding Green Nation.

Well, we’re finally here. We’re finally at the point where the Giants are playing a must-win game. Sure, I have been loosely tossing around that title for the past few weeks, but this is it. This is the real deal. Beat the Eagles and keep the season alive or lose, go to 0-5 and play three months of meaningless football.

With the Eagles in town and possibly facing a must-win situation of their own, I did an email exchange with Brandon Gowton of Bleeding Green Nation to talk about the perception of Chip Kelly after four games, the emotions of Andy Reid’s return and seeing him in red and if either Nick Foles or Matt Barkley are the quarterback of the future.

Keefe: It’s been a while since a Giants-Eagles game had as much meaning as this one, even if this one means so much for all the wrong reasons. With the Giants at 0-4 and the Eagles at 1-3, both teams are still actually alive thanks to a down year for the NFC East with the 2-2 Cowboys currently the division leader.

The Giants, as I’m sure you know, have been an atrocity. They lead the league in every category you don’t want to lead the league in and since trailing 10-9 at halftime in Week 2 against the Broncos, they have been outscored 100-21.

The Eagles, on the other hand, opened the season with a bang against the Redskins and it looked like Chip Kelly would be an instant success story in the league. Instead they followed it up by losing to the Chargers at home, letting Andy Reid’s Chiefs dominate in his homecoming and getting blown out of Denver by the Broncos, which isn’t really all that bad since everyone is getting blown out by the Broncos. So over the last three weeks, the Eagles have been right there with the Giants.

After Week 1 I was still confident in the Giants because they had a chance to win a game on the road against a division opponent with two minutes to go despite turning the ball over six times. And I’m sure you were overly confident after the Eagles picked apart the Redskins and looked like they might be able to run the score up on the entire NFC.

Before we get to the former head coach, let’s start with the current head coach. What were your thoughts on Kelly and how have they changed after his hiring, after the Week 1 win and after the three straight losses?

Gowton: My feelings on the Chip Kelly hire haven’t changed much since his hire. I’m excited about his brand of football that he’s brought to Philadeplhia, and I’m aware that it will take some time before everything fully blossoms. The Eagles are an historical offensive pace in terms of yards. That’s something to be excited about once (if) the Birds figure out how to translate those yards into more points.

Keefe: And how about the old head coach?

Andy Reid was the head coach of the Eagles for 14 years, which in head coaching years is the equivalent of 56 years. From 1999-2012 he led the Eagles and led them to a 130-93-1 record, but was never able to win the Big One for them and everyone will always cite that when they talk about his time in Philadelphia.

Change is hard as a fan especially when it involves a fixture for your team. I went through it with Joe Torre and Jorge Posada and am about to go through it with Mariano Rivera and a second time with Andy Pettitte.

Did you think it was time for a change and time for Reid to go? How weird was it to see him on the opposite sideline in Week 3 coaching the Chiefs?

Gowton: It was definitely time for Andy Reid to go. He’s the greatest Eagles coach of all time to this date. The amount of success he generated in Philadelphia was mightily impressive. These things are great in remembrance, but the bottom line is the Eagles were an underperforming team that needed improvement. Chip Kelly was the perfect hire to replace the old guard. This organization needed a new energy and a new direction.

It was and still is weird to see Reid wearing red. It will always be that way. But it was the best move for him as well, and I wish him well in Kansas City.

Keefe: Michael Vick has played 16 games in a season in his career once (2006), and let’s be honest, he probably won’t play 16 games this season with the way he plays at the age of 33 if the last time he did it was seven years ago.

Vick has played pretty well so far under Kelly, so it’s not like he’s in danger of losing his job. Well, unless the Eagles season continues to go south. And if it does what happens then?

The Eagles have Nick Foles and Matt Barkley as backups with Foles having played in seven games last year after being drafted in 2012 and Barkley being a rookie, whose draft stock plummeted after he decided to stay for another year at USC.

If the Eagles aren’t going where they expect to go this season or Vick is unable to play a complete season, is it automatic that Foles would take over? Who do you like better between Foles and Barkley and which of the two is the quarterback of the future?

Gowton: Call me crazy, but I actually think Vick stands a decent chance of playing all 16 games. Or maybe he misses one or two at most. He’s done a better job of protecting himself than I’ve seen in recent years. He makes the effort to get down or run out of bounds before taking that extra hit.

Chip Kelly was brought to Philadelphia to win football games. It sounds simple and obvious, but it needs to be said. With that in mind, he’s going to play the guy who gives him the best chance to win. As long as he feels that guy is Vick, he will be the starter. Nick Foles will only be playing at quarterback if Vick is hurt.

I like Foles more than Barkley at this point. Barkley clearly looked like a rookie in preseason and training camp. He needs time to develop. I’m not sure if either of them are the future, though. They certainly have the chance to be, but it won’t be handed to them at all. If they truly aspire to be the future starter, they need to clearly outplay their competition and win the job.

Keefe: This game on Sunday is the Giants season. Up until now, their games have been called “must-win,” but this is the real deal. They’re not coming back from 0-5 (I mean the odds are strongly against them to even come back from 0-4.) If they can’t beat a reeling Eagles team that is slumping just as bad as they are at home at MetLife with the season on the line then at least I will know I can focus my attention to the Rangers and hockey season and not to letting the Giants steal three-plus hours of my Sundays.

Some people believe that in situations like this the more desperate team wins, but if that was true then the Giants wouldn’t have as many second-half collapses as they do under Tom Coughlin. And it’s not like the Giants are even a heavy favorite as the more desperate team in this game given the Eagles’ current state.

And given the way the Giants have been losing games, which is every way imaginable, I said on Monday if the Eagles are planning a “Miracle at the Meadowlands Part II” this Sunday then I wish someone would tell me now, so I can find something else to do.

What do you expect to happen on Sunday?

Gowton: I’ll start off by saying this game isn’t a freebie for Philadelphia. It’s the NFL – Any Given Sunday. With that said, the Giants have looked really bad in all phases: offense, defense, special teams. The Eagles know they have a chance to take the division lead with a win over the Giants (and a Dallas loss to Denver). Beating the Giants would mean the Eagles are 2-3, but more importantly they would be 2-0 in the NFC and the NFC East. That record is significant when it comes to the playoff picture. The three losses are merely AFC losses.Sunday could be an ugly game, but Philly will find a way to get the job done. The offense is too much of a threat for New York, and while the Eagles defense is bad, they can benefit from some likely Giants turnovers. Eagles 33, Giants 20

Read More

Blogs

Sep 28, 2012

NFL Week 4 Picks

It’s Week 4 of the NFL season and there hasn’t been an over-.500 week yet.

Sunday Night Football is the best. It’s not always actually the best game of the week, but it’s the best game to be a part of. It’s the best time slot, on the best broadcast with the best broadcasters and the best theme song (though Thursday Night Football is right there) and the best open (which is most likely by default). The Giants get to play on Sunday Night Football this Sunday night in Philadelphia for the first of just two times this season and I’m ecstatic.

Giants-Eagles games are in a select group of regular season matchups for my teams that also includes Yankees-Red Sox, Giants-Cowboys, Rangers-Devils and Rangers-Flyers. Even though others would disagree I would also put Yankees-Mets in there even if the Mets aren’t good and it’s interleague play and I would put Rangers-Bruins in there too even if it’s just a New York-Boston thing and not a divisional thing. That means that in a normal year, this would be one of four marquee matchups for the Giants, but because of their relentless schedule, they will also play the 49ers, Steelers, Packers, Falcons and Ravens. (The Saints were part of that list three weeks ago.)

This will be the Giants’ fourth game of the season. So far they have played on Wednesday night, Sunday afternoon and Thursday night. They have had 11 full days off in between Weeks 1 and 2 and three full days off and Weeks 2 and 3, and they will have had 10 full days off between Weeks 3 and 4. There has been nothing routine or normal about their schedule to this point. After Sunday night they will have played two primetime games and they still have Sunday Night Football against the Packers in Week 12 after the bye week and then Monday Night Football in Washington in Week 13. But after Sunday night, the G-Men will play their next six games before their bye on Sunday at either 1:00 or 4:25, so things gets more routine. However, they don’t get any easier.

After the Giants play the Browns next week, seven of their 11 remaining games will be against 2011 playoff teams and the other four will be against the NFC East (Washington twice and Dallas and Philadelphia once). This game on Sunday night in Philadelphia in front of the most hostile of stadiums is important anyway, but it’s even more so because of what the Giants will endure over the following 13 weeks.

Week 4 … let’s go!

(Home team in caps)

BALTIMORE -12 over Cleveland
In night games on Wednesday, Thursday, Sunday and Monday, I’m now 4-6. That’s not good.

New England -4 over BUFFALO
The Patriots are 1-2. I thought “the Patriots never lose at home,” but they lost to the Cardinals at home and I thought “the Patriots never lose back-to-back games?” Oh, yeah those were the two theories that were debunked last year when the Giants beat them at home and when they lost back-to-back games to the Steelers and Giants. And then there was the theory that Gresh and Zo called me out for on 98.5 The Sports Hub in Boston saying that “the Patriots never lose to the same team twice in one season.” The Giants proved that theory wrong too.

In 2004, when I was a freshman in college, the Patriots would have won in Week 2 against the Cardinals and Week 3 against the Ravens. There’s no question in my mind. During the height of the Patriots dynasty they always won close games where they had a chance to seal the deal in the final minutes. It was as much of a guarantee as there is in professional sports. But we are far removed from the 2004 Patriots. Since their Super Bowl win over the Eagles, they have reached the postseason in six of seven years, but have lost in the divisional round to the Broncos, lost in the AFC Championship to the Colts, lost in the Super Bowl to the Giants, missed the playoffs with Tom Brady out for the year, lost in the wild-card round to the Ravens, lost in the divisional round to the Jets and lost in the Super Bowl to the Giants.

This year the Patriots were being penciled in for 13-14 wins all over the place thanks to another easy schedule because of the weak AFC East, but that’s no longer likely unless they find a way to go 13-0 or 12-1 the rest of the way.

As much as I desperately want the Patriots to fall to 1-3 leading into a week in which arguably the worst Red Sox season in franchise history comes to an end in the Bronx, I don’t think the Patriots are going do anything or than destroy the Bills this Sunday. Let’s hope I’m wrong.

DETROIT -4 over Minnesota
I don’t know what to make of the 1-2 Lion,s who lost to the Titans or the 1-2 Vikings, who beat the 49ers. It’s all very confusing, but that’s the way things are in the NFL in 2012. If Matthew Stafford plays I feel confident with this pick. If he doesn’t, I still feel confident since Shaun Hill has screwed me in the past, so he owes me one. Or two. Or 10.

ATLANTA -7 over Carolina
The Falcons are due for a letdown. Especially since they are one of only one of two remaining undefeated teams and because they’re the Falcons and that’s what they do. That letdown could very well come this week, but I’m not about to back the Panthers whose only win came against the winless Saints and who were just embarrassed 36-7 by the Giants. Not even the extra days to prepare could change my mind on a team whose quarterback threw three interceptions and then said, “It was nothing they did, it was all on us.”

San Francisco -4.5 over NEW YORK JETS
Rex Ryan isn’t ruling out Darrelle Revis’ return in the 2012 season in the event the Jets make the Super Bowl. I didn’t make that sentence up. He really said it.

“Let’s see what happens when he goes through surgery, because if there’s that 0.0002 percent chance that he can play in the Super Bowl, why would you take the option away from him?”

It’s obvious that Rex Ryan doesn’t live in real life with the rest of us and after a couple years of Super Bowl guarantees and the promise that he wouldn’t make outrageous claims anymore, I thought Rex was really over it. Shame on me for believing him. The idea of tossing a Jets’ Super Bowl reference into a press conference has just been waiting to slip out of his mouth since training camp and he finally got the opportunity to toss it out there and he did.

KANSAS CITY +1 over San Diego
The Chiefs gave up 75 points in the first two weeks and then needed overtime to beat the helpless and winless Saints. So why am I picking them here? The same reason that Joe Girardi keeps starting Andruw Jones against left-handed pitchers. For no reason of all of course!

HOUSTON -12 over Tennessee
12 points is a lot. And if the first three weeks and the Thursday game this week have taught us anything, it’s that it’s really hard to cover 12-point spreads in this league. But if there’s a team right now capable of covering 12, it’s the Texans. And if there’s a team capable of not covering 12, it’s the Titans.

ST. LOUIS +3 over Seattle
Here’s what I wrote last week about the Seahawks.

“I wanted to take Seattle last week at home against Dallas, and I didn’t, and I lost. I want to take Seattle this week against Green Bay, but I’m not going to.”

Now did I know that the refs were like gambling on the game and that’s why they let the Seahawks hang around with bad calls down the stretch before giving the game on the most controversial ruling since the Steelers-Chargers game in 2008? No, otherwise I would have went with my first instinct and picked the Seahawks. The Football Gods can’t be happy about what the replacements refs did to the sport last Monday night and because of it, picking for the Seahawks here is probably a terrible idea since Pete Carroll probably didn’t take time to plan for the Rams since he was too busy running around Qwest Field like he had just won the Super Bowl.

ARIZONA -5.5 over Miami
The Cardinals are going to lay an A.J. Burnett-like egg here at some point. It makes sense that it would come against the Dolphins in a league where the Saints are 0-3, the Packers and Patriots are 1-2 and the 49ers lose to the Vikings.

Oakland +7 over DENVER
Despite all this talk about how bad Peyton Manning’s velocity is, I still expect him to find it and for the Broncos to be in the postseason. But right now, I have to take the Raiders to cover in Denver. (I regret this pick with each word typed.)

Cincinnati -1 over JACKSONVILLE
This line feels a little low and therefore a little sketchy. Oh, well.

GREEN BAY PACKERS -7.5 over New Orleans
The Packers are 1-2. Aaron Rodgers has three touchdowns, two interceptions and 745 yards through three games. The Packers are averaging 19 points per game. Is this real life? If this is real life then Aaron Rodgers is about to return to MVP form following a game that was stolen from the Packers by the refs and put the Saints in an 0-4 hole and end their season before Oct. 1. Lambeau Field is the last place the Saints want to be on Sunday.

TAMPA BAY -2 over Washington
It’s the “Do I Really Have to Pick This Game of the Week?” It’s good to see the Redskins back in it after their impressive performance in Week 1. Or what we thought was an impressive performance when it was really just a win against a bad Saints team. Welcome back, Washington! It’s been a long two weeks thinking that you might be good this year.

NEW YORK GIANTS +2 over Philadelphia
The Eagles are vulnerable right now. They won in Cleveland by one point in the final seconds, won in Baltimore by one point in the final seconds and then lost in Arizona. Michael Vick has thrown for three touchdowns and six interceptions and there is talk that he might not be the starting quarterback for much longer.

The Giants were outscored 48-30 in the first six quarters this season. In the last six quarters they have outscored their opponents 64-17. Somehow, despite winning their second Super Bowl in four years they are still underrated and under the radar. The Eagles, on the other hand, are still getting respect around the league and from Vegas for accomplishing nothing.

Chicago +3.5 over DALLAS
The idea of Jay Cutler avoiding DeMarcus Ware on Monday Night Football scares me. The idea of Jay Cutler as a whole scares me, but I think this matchup is close enough that I have to take the points.

Last Week: 8-8-0
Season: 20-27-1

Read More

Blogs

Sep 13, 2012

NFL Week 2 Picks

It’s Week 2 of the NFL season and the picks only get harder from here.

Can you have a must-win game in Week 2? Yes, you can because the Giants do.

After this week’s game against the Buccaneers, the Giants play the Panthers on Thursday Night Football, and after that, it’s all downhill schedule-wise except for Week 5 against Brandon Weeden’s Browns. After Week 3, they will have five NFC East games left, seven games against 2011 playoff team and then of course the Browns in Week 5. (For some reason I have this feeling that Weeden won’t be the Browns’ quarterback by Week 5.)

I have gotten over last week’s Opening Night disaster though the Yankees are trying their best to keep me down and I have moved on to the Buccaneers, who are one of only three “easy” games on the Giants’ schedule now that it appears the Redskins are for real for the first time since 2007.

Last week, I warned about what happens for the Week 2 lines and how perception shifts and changes. It was only a week ago we thought the Giants would finally be an all-passing team, the Redskins still sucked, the Bills might finish a season with a playoff game, the Jets would be a joke and the Packers would be out to avenge their 15-1 season and early playoff exit. All of these things might still be true and could still happen, but all we have is one game and one week of play to go off of, as does Vegas.

I took plenty of tests in my day where I sat down, started reading through the questions and didn’t know the answer to a single one. I’m sure we all had this happen at one point. (Well, I hope I’m not the only one or I will feel terrible.) So what did I do? I started writing, made things wordy, made things up and put together a test full of 100-percent BS. I knew I wasn’t going to get an A on it, but I wasn’t looking for an A either. I was looking to salvage my grade and weather the storm and just survive the class and not fail. In Week 2, I’m not looking to go 15-1 or even 12-4. I’m trying to stay afloat until I can make more sense out of the 2012 season and how good or bad each team is.

Week 2 … let’s go!

(Home team in caps)

Chicago +5.5 over GREEN BAY
There are probably a lot of people that want their “Packers in the Super Bowl” predictions back right about now. Last year’s 15-1 and defending champion team doesn’t look like it’s back for 2012. The offensive line has holes and the defense let Alex Smith complete 20 of his 26 pass attempts and throw for two touchdowns and Frank Gore run for 112 yards on just 16 carries. And I don’t think we even need to get into the Packers’ running game and Cedric Benson.

Not only do the Packers not look like the team that went 15-1 and then lost their first playoff game, but they have now lost back-to-back games at Lambeau Field with the loss to the 49ers and the playoff loss to the Giants. Before the playoff loss in January, their last home loss was on Oct. 17, 2010 against the Dolphins in Week 6. Their last home loss before that? Nov. 1, 2009 against the Vikings in Week 8.

There’s a good chance the Packers make me pay for picking the Bears, but until they show me something in 2012, I can’t be giving away 5 1/2 points to a division rival.

NEW YORK GIANTS -7.5 over Tampa Bay
If the Giants can’t blow the Bucs out at home after a Week 1 embarrassment then I’m going to need a hobby this fall and winter if there’s no NHL.

NEW ENGLAND -14 over Arizona
If the Patriots were favored by 21 points in this one I would still take.

The last time the cardinals went to Foxboro, I took the Cardinals. They lost 47-7 to Matt Cassel’ Patriots. Sure, that was nearly four years ago and neither team is even close to being the same, but that loss scarred me when it comes to trusting the Cardinals away from home and like the Packers, the Patriots don’t lose at home (unless they’re playing the Giants.)

INDIANAPOLIS -1.5 over Minnesota
The “Do I Have To Pick This Game of the Week?” Last week we had two of these games with Seattle-Arizona and Carolina-Tampa Bay. Next week we have Buffalo-Cleveland and Jacksonville-Indianapolis. (It’s weird that because of one Redskins game I’m not putting the Washington-St. Louis game in this paragraph.)

New Orleans -3 over CAROLINA
Last year the difference between the Saints at home and the Saints on the road was like the difference between Tara Reid in 1999 and Tara Reid in 2009. But the Saints no longer seem to be the hot blonde in American Pie and are now that girl that was in American Pie, but had a liposculpting procedure that went wrong. Even though the Saints were embarrassed at home by the Redskins, the Panthers scored 10 points against the Buccaneers and I can’t erase that from my memory.

Kansas City +3 over BUFFALO
There’s a good chance that if this game were played in three more weeks it would be a “Do I Really Have to Pick This Game of the Week?” But because perception is that the Chiefs and Bills are supposed to be playoff bubble teams, this game isn’t ready to be classified as a joke yet. Then again, these teams allowed a combined 88 points last week, so maybe we’re already there.

Baltimore +2 over PHILADELPHIA
When I thought of Joe Flacco between the AFC Championship Game and Week 1, I thought of an old vet who just wasn’t good and that was because of ridiculous facial hair last season. I still knew he was a 27-year-old who had been to two AFC Championship Games, but that facial hair really screwed with my head. All offseason I kept hearing about how he was going to have a big year and could receive “elite” status and I laughed because of his appearance and not his abilities. Then on Monday Night Football he looks like 2008-2010 Joe Flacco, throws for 299 yards and two touchdowns.

Oh yeah, the Eagles beat the Browns by one point and Michael Vick threw four picks. Let me trust him right away!

Oakland -2.5 over MIAMI
The Raiders’ blocked punts kept me from an 8-8 record in Week 1 and for some stupid reason I’m going to pick them again. Well, maybe the reason isn’t that stupid … they’re playing the Dolphins.

CINCINNATI -7 over Cleveland
I could talk about how the Bengals are a 2011 playoff team coming off an embarrassing loss to the Ravens on Monday Night Football or how Andy Dalton will be out for revenge. But I’ll just talk about the only things that matters…

Brandon Weeden: 12-for-35, 118 yards, 0 TD, 4 INT, 5.1 QB Rating.

Houston -7.5 over JACKSONVILLE
I hate when people say, “The man who needs no introduction…” but then they give one anyway. Well, this pick needs no explanation, so I’m not going to give one.

Dallas -3 over SEATTLE
I don’t think the Cowboys are as good as they looked on Opening Night against the Giants, but I also know that there are passengers on the Russell Wilson hype train that are willing to jump off while it’s still moving.

Washington -3 over ST. LOUIS
I can already see a letdown game from the Redskins here and I’m fully prepared for it.

New York Jets +6 over PITTSBURGH
Is it ever a good idea to believe in the Jets, especially after a 20-point win that is most likely not indicative of what type of team they are at all? Of course not. Am I letting one game after an offseason full of chaos make me think differently? Of course I am.

SAN DIEGO -6 over Tennessee
I hate picking the Chargers ever, but I don’t really have a choice here.

SAN FRANCISCO -7 over Detroit
It can’t be good that I think the best team in the NFL is the one whose quarterback is Alex Smith.

Denver +3 over ATLANTA
Peyton Manning’s second week back and his second primetime game in as many weeks. After this game, Peyton still has another Monday Night game (Week 6 against San Diego), a Sunday Night game (Week 8 against the Saints) and a Thursday Night game (Week 14 against the Raiders). I will be taking him in all of them.

Last Week: 7-9-0
Season: 7-9-0

Read More