Matthew Stafford – Keefe To The City

Sep 10, 2015

NFL Week 1 Picks

I hate the end of summer and post-Labor Day means the days are only going to get shorter and the weather is only going to get colder and soon enough you won’t want to go outside. So here we go. For the next 22 weeks, there’s football.

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I hate the end of summer. I have seasonal depression, or at least I think I have seasonal depression and post-Labor Day means the days are only going to get shorter and the weather is only going to get colder and soon enough you won’t want to go outside. But I love that football is back tonight, the Giants begin their season in three days, the Yankees are headed to the postseason in some form and the Rangers’ season begins in 27 days. I guess there are some positives to fall.

The beginning of the football season gives every team and every fan a chance to believe in their team and in moments like this happening (that’s me in Boston after the Giants beat the Patriots in Super Bowl XLII. I might have had a few beers). That night I drank in celebration at a bar in Faneuil Hall in the heart of Boston watching the highlights of the game over and over and over and over until the bar kicked us out.

The next morning I woke up without any traces of a hangover and walked out onto Hanover Street, which looked like the opening scenes of Vanilla Sky or I Am Legend. There was hardly any people around and the handful of people I did see had a look of complete devastation across their face. I couldn’t have been happier. That’s what football can do.

I haven’t liked football for a while. The last time I enjoyed football was the second before Russell Wilson threw a pass intended for Ricardo Lockette that was intercepted by Malcolm Butler. Actually, the last time I liked football was the second before Pete Carroll decided to throw the ball on the goal line with the Super Bowl at stake and the best running back in the league on his team. The second before Carroll opened his mouth and suggested that play or agreed to that play was the last time I liked football.

Since that second, the Patriots went on to win the Super Bowl, ending a nine-season drought without a championship, Tom Brady became a four-time Super Bowl champion, Boston sports fans argued that Marshawn Lynch might have not gotten in the end zone from the 1, Darrelle Revis became a champion and the worst thing in the history of sports happened: Deflategate. If Carroll gives the ball to Lynch there, the Seahawks win the Super Bowl, the Patriots are once again losers on the biggest stage, Jermaine Kearse’s catch unseats David Tyree’s catch as the most improbable Super Bowl catch of all time and Deflategate doesn’t spiral out of control because no one cares if a non-championship team may or may not have altered the footballs. But none of that happened and instead for nearly eight months at one point of every day I saw or heard the word “Deflategate” some place.

I was in Seattle for the NFC Championship Game and I saw about two seconds of the AFC Championship Game. I had heard the score and didn’t need to witness the Patriots embarrassing the Colts a week after the Ravens couldn’t close them out. Later that night in the hotel room, my girlfriend showed me a tweet that the Patriots supposedly played with underinflated footballs. My first thought was, “I don’t even know what that means” since I simply didn’t understand if that was good or bad or how that could be an issue. I thought it was just some nonsensical report that would either be laughed at or forgotten. I went to sleep on Jan. 18 not knowing about how footballs are handled before each game, what the proper PSI levels are for footballs or that quarterbacks got to use their own personal footballs in a game. When I woke up on Jan. 19, that nonsensical report hadn’t been forgotten.

I still can’t believe that for nearly all of the 2015 calendar year (minus the 17 days before the AFC Championship Game), Deflategate has pretty much controlled the headlines. The idea that people could spend so much time talking about the air pressure in footballs, reading every piece of information from the investigation and suspension and appeal and listening to sports radio recycle the same mind-blowing opinions on the topic is actually insane. Trying to understand how this much time, attention, money and resources were used on trying to figure out how footballs were lacking the necessary air is like trying to understand why Joe Girardi will use Dellin Betances and Andrew Miller in a game the Yankees are winning by five runs, but not in a game they’re losing by one run or why How to Make it in America was cancelled after two seasons or trying to grasp something as complex as the universe. Deflategate makes my head hurt to think about.

Unfortunately, Deflategate will never go away. The word will always follow Tom Brady, Bill Belichick and the Patriots around just like Spygate has. The Brady/Belichick Patriots will always be the victims of a witch hunt to Patriots fans and cheaters to non-Patriots fans. Even though the D-word is here to say just like the S-word has stayed alive for the last eight years, on Thursday night we will all finally have something else to talk about: a real-life football game. That is, until the Patriots beat the Steelers, like they always do at Gillette Stadium. Then, we will all have to hear about how they cheated to win the season opener too.

Tonight begins a new NFL season and with that comes a new picks season and another 263 games to pick. Last season, I finished 129-130-4, losing the final game of the season, the Super Bowl, on the play that should have gotten Pete Carroll fired. That play motivated me to work hard this offseason and get in the best shape of my life and make sure this picks season doesn’t end the way the last one did.

So here we go. For the next 22 weeks, there’s football.

(Home team in caps)

NEW ENGLAND -7 over Pittsburgh
As a Giants fan, I have to question the Patriots’ so-called cheating tactics. Either they lost on purpose a few times to make it seem like they weren’t cheating the way you might get a few questions wrong on a test on purpose to not make it obvious. Or they are just the worst cheaters of all time.

If the Patriots were videotaping signal givers and stealing playbooks and breaking into hotel rooms for information, did they forget to do these things for some of the biggest games? After their Super Bowl win in 2001, they missed the playoffs in 2002. They won the Super Bowl in 2003 and 2004, but then they lost to Broncos in the playoffs in 2005, blew a 21-6 halftime lead to the Colts in the 2006 AFC Championship Game, blew the perfect season and lost Super Bowl XLII to the Giants, got run out of Gillette by the Ravens in 2010, were embarrassed by the Jets at home in 2011, lost against to the Giants in Super Bowl XLVI, were shut down by the Ravens in 2012 and got dominated by the Broncos in 2013 before winning the Super Bowl this year.

Like I said, the Patriots were either losing on purpose to keep things balanced or they just aren’t very good cheaters given all of the information they supposedly had, taped and stole. Or maybe they just weren’t doing anything that every other team was already doing? No, it can’t be that.

Green Bay -7 over CHICAGO
This season I have made a pledge to myself to go hard after the Bears. I’m not getting suckered into thinking they can or will be good and I’m not changing my mind on them. I don’t care if they start the season 5-0 or or 7-0 or go 10-0 or complete the perfect season. If they do any of those things, good for them, but I’m not changing my mind on the Bears.

HOUSTON -1 over Kansas City
I’m not sure how Bill O’Brien and Rick Smith came to the conclusion that Brian Hoyer should be the Texans’ starting quarterback over Ryan Mallett. To be fair, it’s not like he named Hoyer the starter over a clearly more talented player and the two likely have the same amount of ability. But did they watch Hoyer play for the Browns? If you’re looking for one touchdown, two interceptions and 227 yards then Hoyer is your guy because that’s what he is and because we know what he is, why not start Mallett? At least there is a chance he might be somewhat good or at least better than Hoyer.

NEW YORK JETS -3 over Cleveland
The Jets always seem to get a cupcake game in Week 1 even if there is supposedly no such thing in the NFL. Last season, the Jets opened at home against the Raiders. The year before they opened at home against the Buccaneers. The year before that they opened at home against the Bills. It’s like they are playing the equivalent of Alcorn State, Tennessee-Martin and Arkansas State in Week 1. The Jets seem to always win in Week 1 because they’re at home against a weak opponent, which is once again the case this season, and then the Jets are 1-0 and their fans start mapping out their route to a postseason berth and before you know it they’re 1-3 and trying to keep their season alive.

After this game, the Jets follow with at Indianapolis, home against Philadelphia and at Miami before their Week 5 bye. Todd Bowles better get his first win as Jets head coach against the Browns or he might not be getting it until Oct. 18 and Week 6 against Washington. That’s a long ways away and there’s a lot of time between now and then for Jets fans to buy billboards and fly planes over practice suggesting he be fired.

BUFFALO +3 over Indianapolis
I wouldn’t mind seeing the Bills do well and have a winning season and make the playoffs. The only problem with that is their quarterback is Tyrod Taylor. His backup is Matt Cassell. His back up is EJ Manuel. That’s a big problem to have, but so is not having a run defense, which the Colts still don’t have.

Miami -4 over WASHINGTON
This is the official survivor pool Week 1 pick for just about everyone. In a week in which there are many even-matched and coin-flip games, you can always count on the Redskins to give you a much-needed win to stay alive.

For the last few years, we have been hearing about how the Dolphins will challenge the Patriots in the AFC East and each time they have failed. This year, the Dolphins are supposed to be even better and once again challenge the Patriots and reach the postseason for the first time since 2008. If the Dolphins are as good and reliable as they are being hyped up to be then this line is incredibly low. Even if the Dolphins are an average team, this line is too low. Even if the Dolphins are in the bottom third or bottom fourth of teams in the league, this is line is still too low. That’s how bad the 2015 Redskins are.

JACKSONVILLE +3.5 over Carolina
The Game of the Week. Somewhere someone who isn’t a Jaguars fan or a Panthers fan is going to bet on this game and watch it in its entirety. Thank about that.

Seattle -4.5 over ST. LOUIS
The Seahawks and I are not on good terms. After I became an honorary Seahawks fan and a 12 for the Super Bowl they went on to blow a 10-point lead and blow the game to ruin my Super Bowl Sunday and the days that have followed since. I don’t know if I’ll ever be able to forgive them for the loss and I absolutely will never forgive Pete Carroll for his play call. But if the Seahawks (and Pete Carroll isn’t included in this) are going to try to win me back it’s going to be by consistently covering spreads week in and week out. Here’s their first chance at redemption.

ARIZONA -3 over New Orleans
We all know what happens when you take the Saints out of the Superdome. Now take them out of the Superdome without Jimmy Graham.

SAN DIEGO -3 over Detroit
These two teams are the same to me and this is the hardest game of the week to pick. I did trade Matthew Stafford for Eli Manning in fantasy football, so I have to root heavily against Stafford this season.

TAMPA BAY -3 over Tennessee
Jameis Winston vs. Marcus Mariota in Week 1. I’m surprised this hasn’t been sold as the “Peyton Manning vs. Tom Brady of the future”. If it were, Winston would be Manning would weapons like Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson and Mariota would be Brady with Kendall Wright and Harry Douglas to throw to. I’m thankful that the NFL Sunday Ticket is available to everyone this year, so that I don’t have to be forced to have the NFL Red Zone get stuck on this game since the only thing I would need or any non-Bucs and non-Titans fan would need from this game is the final score.

OAKLAND +3.5 over Cincinnati
I could care less about the NFL preseason. It’s baseball season until the Yankees either win the World Series or are eliminated and even if you don’t like baseball, there has to be something better to do with your time than watch meaningless preseason football games. The only crazier people in the world than those who watch preseason games are those who attend them. It’s not like spring training where you’re likely getting away from cold weather and enjoying the sun and watching a product that resembles what you see for 162 games in the summer.

The only thing I look for in preseason are finding out which key Giants were injured since it’s inevitable and videos of Andy Dalton throwing interceptions. And there’s only one thing more entertaining than Andy Dalton preseason interceptions and that’s Andy Dalton regular-season interceptions and once again there will be a lot of them.

DENVER -5 over Baltimore
Since I don’t watch preseason football, the last time I watched Peyton Manning play he was throwing wobbly passes as if he were trying to make a Nerf ball without seams spiral and the passes weren’t going to anyone. He finished that home playoff loss against the Colts at 26-of-46 for 211 yards and a touchdown despite coming off a bye, which momentarily made everyone think the Colts had a chance against the Patriots before they were blown out.

I have no idea what Manning will look like this season if he could have looked so bad against a bad defense with a trip to the AFC Championship Game on the line. I don’t think he would have come back if he were going to continue to play like that, so for now, I’m trusting that a healthier, yet older, Peyton Manning came back because he would be good enough to cover spreads once again.

New York Giants +6 over DALLAS
I’m overly confident in the Giants right now. I’m talking high levels of irrational confidence about a team that has gone 13-19 over the last two seasons and hasn’t made the playoffs in the the last three seasons. That could all change in one minute on Sunday night or even one play if Eli Manning opens the season with a first-play interception the way he did against the Cowboys in Week 1 on Sunday Night Football two years ago.

What scares me the most about the 2015 Giants isn’t the absurd amount of preseason injuries for the third straight year or the health of Victor Cruz or the absences of Jason Pierre-Paul or the offensive line or the secondary. What scares me the most is what Prince Amukamara said about this game by calling it a “must-win.”

“I could see everyone’s [butt] getting tight, everyone feeling like they are on the hot seat. You definitely don’t want that feeling around. It’s a bad disease.

“I think that can break the team’s morale, especially with the guys that have already been here and have experienced 0-1, than 0-2 and 0-6 (in 2013). It’s just a bad taste in your mouth. And with this organization, which wants to win now and always has a sense of urgency.”

The idea that a Week 1 loss could cause the team’s butts to “get tight” and “break the team’s morale” isn’t exactly reassuring for the season if they do lose to the Cowboys. Since Amukamara basically called this game the Super Bowl following the most uninspiring preseason from the Giants maybe ever, I’m not scared about this game, I’m petrified.

ATLANTA +3 over Philadelphia
Everywhere I turn I see the Eagles being picked to win the NFC East and be a Super Bowl contender. Is Sam Bradford not the Eagles’ starting quarterback? Has he not missed the last 23 regular-season games? Was the last time he played in an NFL game not Oct. 20, 2013?

In five seasons, Bradford has played 16 games twice and has played in 49 of a possible 80 games (61 percent). If Bradford were to get hurt and miss time, which obviously is a real possibility, then the Eagles would turn to Mark Sanchez once again. If you forgot, the Eagles were 7-2 last season and with Sanchez as the starting quarterback, they went on to miss the playoffs.

The Phillies are fighting to not be the worst team in baseball, the Flyers are horrible and the 76ers haven’t been good since Allen Iverson played for them. If the Eagles aren’t good, the Philadelphia sports landscape will be full of bad teams, which is more incentive to pick against the Eagles.

Minnesota -2.5 over SAN FRANCISCO
I have no idea when I’m going to sleep in the next five days. The Yankees have a four-game series against the Blue Jays beginning on Thursday. The NFL season opens on Thursday. The first NFL Sunday is this Sunday and the Giants play at 8:30 p.m. There is the Week 1 Monday Night Football doubleheader with the second game (this game) starting at 10:15 p.m. Normally this is like Raiders-Chargers and I could watch it while falling asleep, but my girlfriend is a Vikings fan, so I will be awake and invested in this game. Since I will be watching intently with a crazed Vikings fan next to me, I have to go with the Vikings here otherwise the next time I will be able to get a good night’s sleep won’t be as early as Tuesday.

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Blogs • Email Exchanges • Giants

Sep 5, 2014

Giants-Lions Looks Lopsided

The Giants and Lions open the season against each on Monday Night Football and both teams are at a crossroads this year.

The New York Football Giants are back. The good news is that the Giants enter the season with no expectations at all. Well, no positive expectations. The only expectations the team has is that they might actually be worse than they were a year ago when they started the season 0-6 and finished 7-9. How is that good news? That’s good news because the Giants thrive when there aren’t any expectations attached to them. If they were being picked to go 12-4 and win the NFC East then I would worry about them. The bad news is that if the people who are saying the Giants could be looking at their worst season since 2004 are right then football season isn’t going to fun for me or any Giants fan.

With the Giants’ season kicking off on Monday night in Detroit, I did an email exchange with Sean Yuille of Pride of Detroit to talk about having Jim Caldwell as his team’s head coach, and what we can expect on Monday night.

Keefe: Last season, the Lions were 6-3 before losing six of their last seven games to finish 7-9 and miss out on the postseason, which led to the firing of Jim Schwartz. I had forgotten about Schwartz since last season and it wasn’t until the Giants’ Hall of Fame Game against the Bills in August when I saw him as the defensive coordinator for the Bills did it hit me that he is no longer with the Lions. And then I remembered that Jim Caldwell is now the head coach of the Lions. Jim Caldwell! The seemingly most lost head coach to ever put on a headset in the NFL, who at times looks confused as to why he is on the sidelines of an NFL game.

It seems like this core of Lions players are entering a crossroads season where they will either get back to the playoffs for the first time since 2011 or lead another head coach to be fired. The team might have the most talent in the entire league, but hasn’t been able to put it together and consistently win and now they are asking Caldwell to lead them in doing so.

I’m still in shock that Caldwell is coaching the Lions, but it doesn’t matter to me since they’re not my team. However, they are your team and Caldwell is your head coach. And while it was definitely time for Schwartz to go, are you on board with Caldwell?

Yuille: I am now. When he was first hired? Not so much. At the time, I had a lot of the same thoughts as you about Caldwell. He was a disappointing hire, especially after the team was seemingly spurned by Ken Whisenhunt, who ended up taking the Titans’ job instead. Generally speaking, the Caldwell hire was an uninspiring one, and the Lions’ overall coaching search was quite uninspiring as well.

Quickly, I warmed up to the hire once Caldwell outlined his vision for the Lions and put together his coaching staff. It obviously remains to be seen if this will all lead to success, but he brought in a lot of promising coordinators and position coaches, and unlike Jim Schwartz, he seems to actually be focused on fixing the Lions’ biggest weaknesses in order for them to take the next step.

Keefe: Last season in Week 1, I thought the Giants might have the most explosive offense in the league following their 31-point effort in Dallas, despite losing the game, with Eli Manning throwing for 450 yards, Victor Cruz having 118 receiving yards and Hakeem Nicks having 114. But then Eli decided to throw more interceptions than touchdowns, Cruz didn’t break 1,000 yards and Nicks didn’t find the end zone once all season.

When I look at the Lions’ offense and see Matthew Stafford, Calvin Johnson, Golden Tate and Reggie Bush, I have nightmares thinking about how the Giants are going to force the Lions to punt even a single time on Monday. There has been a lot of hype around the Giants’ secondary and how it could possibly be the best in the league, and in Week 1 it’s going to have to be to slow down the Lions’ receivers.

How excited are you to watch about the Lions’ offense?

Yuille: I’m both excited and nervous at the same time. On the one hand, it will be nice to see Golden Tate and Eric Ebron on the field in a regular-season game, and it will be just as nice to see Joe Lombardi unleash his new scheme as offensive coordinator of the Lions. He based his scheme on what he saw when he was Drew Brees’ quarterbacks coach in New Orleans, and the hope is that the Lions will become a more balanced and more efficient offense going forward.

At the same time, I’m nervous simply because we’ve been fooled before by the offense’s talent on paper. The Lions are quite strong at all of their offensive position groups, but all of that talent won’t mean anything if they can’t do simple things like take care of the ball, avoid stupid penalties and convert drives into points. The turnovers aspect is especially concerning considering that really led to the Lions’ downfall last year, and that’s an area where Matthew Stafford has to be much better.

Keefe: There are only so many “special” players in sports to watch and I’m fortunate to have grown up with Derek Jeter and Mariano Rivera as homegrown talent and watch their Hall of Fame and all-time great careers unfold on my team. In Detroit, you have Calvin Johnson, the best wide receiver in the world, who you have already been able to watch for seven years and will watch him for at least six more.

What’s it like to get to really watch and root for Johnson every Sunday as a real fan and not as a fantasy football fake fan?

Yuille: It’s quite amazing to see someone as talented as Megatron on a weekly basis. We’ve been quite fortunate in Detroit over the years to see a lot of special players, and even right now we get to watch Miguel Cabrera and Pavel Datsyuk, who are both considered among the very best at what they do. For the Lions, it’s tough to compare anybody to Barry Sanders from a talent standpoint, but Megatron is on track to be one of the very best in franchise history, and he’s an extremely likable person off the field as well.

Keefe: For a long time, the NFC East was the so-called toughest division in the league. But last year, the Eagles won the East at 10-6 the Cowboys finished 8-8, the Giants 7-9 and the Redskins 3-13. The East hasn’t sent two teams to the playoffs since 2009 (Philadelphia and Dallas) and this year, it very well could end up being the worst division in the league, which is saying a lot because the AFC South still exists.

The NFC West had consistently been the worst division in football when the NFC East was on top, but with three strong and two elite teams there, that’s no longer the case. But above the NFC West is the NFC North, where all four teams look to be good in 2014 and now that the Vikings have a franchise quarterback on their roster, the North could have four of the league’s top quarterbacks going at it for several years.

Are you worried about the enhanced competition in the NFC North and which teams scares you the most in the division?

Yuille: The NFC in general worries me because there are so many good teams. It’s possible that the Lions could go 10-6 this year and still miss the playoffs depending on how the standings shake out. And especially in the NFC North, it’s possible they could put together an excellent season and only finish third.

Within the division, the Packers are definitely the team that scares me the most. I know a lot of people are quite high on the Bears this year, but the Packers are still the team to beat. The Lions haven’t won a road game against them since 1991, and Aaron Rodgers may very well be the best quarterback in football. It’s tough to see the Lions making any real noise in the division unless they take care of business against Green Bay.

Keefe: The Giants and Lions played last year in Week 16 in what ended up being a Giants’ 23-20 overtime as they played out the string in a lost season. But that game did mean something for the Lions, who needed a win to stay alive in the NFC North playoff race and the home loss to the Giants was unexpected and the final straw for Schwartz.

Here in New York, no one believes in the 2014 Giants, and while that’s a good thing because the Giants as a franchise are always better when there aren’t any expectations for them, the reasons no one believes in them are frightening because of the amount of question marks they have. The Lions aren’t exactly the best season-opening option for the Giants and their long list of unknowns.

Monday could end up being a disaster for the Giants and they could get run out of Ford Field and I will have to spend the next week listening to how Eli Manning’s career is over and Tom Coughlin should be fired. There’s a good chance the Lions’ pass rush has its way with the Giants’ inexperienced and makeshift offensive line and the Giants’ offense continues to be as sloppy as it was in the preseason. But knowing the history of the Giants and Lions, neither team can ever be trusted to put together a complete effort or meet expectations and because of that, it’s hard to know how Monday’s game will play out.

What do you expect on Monday?

Yuille: I expect a Lions victory. Ford Field is going to be absolutely crazy with Monday Night Football in town, and Detroit in general is going to be quite amped up, especially with the Tigers and Royals battling for first place in the AL Central at Comerica Park on Monday afternoon. An energetic crowd doesn’t automatically lead to victories, of course, but between that and the way the Lions match up with the Giants, this should be a win for Detroit. I expect the Giants to keep it close for a few quarters, perhaps via some untimely turnovers, but I ultimately think the Lions will pull away for a 27-17 win.

Blogs

Sep 28, 2012

NFL Week 4 Picks

It’s Week 4 of the NFL season and there hasn’t been an over-.500 week yet.

Sunday Night Football is the best. It’s not always actually the best game of the week, but it’s the best game to be a part of. It’s the best time slot, on the best broadcast with the best broadcasters and the best theme song (though Thursday Night Football is right there) and the best open (which is most likely by default). The Giants get to play on Sunday Night Football this Sunday night in Philadelphia for the first of just two times this season and I’m ecstatic.

Giants-Eagles games are in a select group of regular season matchups for my teams that also includes Yankees-Red Sox, Giants-Cowboys, Rangers-Devils and Rangers-Flyers. Even though others would disagree I would also put Yankees-Mets in there even if the Mets aren’t good and it’s interleague play and I would put Rangers-Bruins in there too even if it’s just a New York-Boston thing and not a divisional thing. That means that in a normal year, this would be one of four marquee matchups for the Giants, but because of their relentless schedule, they will also play the 49ers, Steelers, Packers, Falcons and Ravens. (The Saints were part of that list three weeks ago.)

This will be the Giants’ fourth game of the season. So far they have played on Wednesday night, Sunday afternoon and Thursday night. They have had 11 full days off in between Weeks 1 and 2 and three full days off and Weeks 2 and 3, and they will have had 10 full days off between Weeks 3 and 4. There has been nothing routine or normal about their schedule to this point. After Sunday night they will have played two primetime games and they still have Sunday Night Football against the Packers in Week 12 after the bye week and then Monday Night Football in Washington in Week 13. But after Sunday night, the G-Men will play their next six games before their bye on Sunday at either 1:00 or 4:25, so things gets more routine. However, they don’t get any easier.

After the Giants play the Browns next week, seven of their 11 remaining games will be against 2011 playoff teams and the other four will be against the NFC East (Washington twice and Dallas and Philadelphia once). This game on Sunday night in Philadelphia in front of the most hostile of stadiums is important anyway, but it’s even more so because of what the Giants will endure over the following 13 weeks.

Week 4 … let’s go!

(Home team in caps)

BALTIMORE -12 over Cleveland
In night games on Wednesday, Thursday, Sunday and Monday, I’m now 4-6. That’s not good.

New England -4 over BUFFALO
The Patriots are 1-2. I thought “the Patriots never lose at home,” but they lost to the Cardinals at home and I thought “the Patriots never lose back-to-back games?” Oh, yeah those were the two theories that were debunked last year when the Giants beat them at home and when they lost back-to-back games to the Steelers and Giants. And then there was the theory that Gresh and Zo called me out for on 98.5 The Sports Hub in Boston saying that “the Patriots never lose to the same team twice in one season.” The Giants proved that theory wrong too.

In 2004, when I was a freshman in college, the Patriots would have won in Week 2 against the Cardinals and Week 3 against the Ravens. There’s no question in my mind. During the height of the Patriots dynasty they always won close games where they had a chance to seal the deal in the final minutes. It was as much of a guarantee as there is in professional sports. But we are far removed from the 2004 Patriots. Since their Super Bowl win over the Eagles, they have reached the postseason in six of seven years, but have lost in the divisional round to the Broncos, lost in the AFC Championship to the Colts, lost in the Super Bowl to the Giants, missed the playoffs with Tom Brady out for the year, lost in the wild-card round to the Ravens, lost in the divisional round to the Jets and lost in the Super Bowl to the Giants.

This year the Patriots were being penciled in for 13-14 wins all over the place thanks to another easy schedule because of the weak AFC East, but that’s no longer likely unless they find a way to go 13-0 or 12-1 the rest of the way.

As much as I desperately want the Patriots to fall to 1-3 leading into a week in which arguably the worst Red Sox season in franchise history comes to an end in the Bronx, I don’t think the Patriots are going do anything or than destroy the Bills this Sunday. Let’s hope I’m wrong.

DETROIT -4 over Minnesota
I don’t know what to make of the 1-2 Lion,s who lost to the Titans or the 1-2 Vikings, who beat the 49ers. It’s all very confusing, but that’s the way things are in the NFL in 2012. If Matthew Stafford plays I feel confident with this pick. If he doesn’t, I still feel confident since Shaun Hill has screwed me in the past, so he owes me one. Or two. Or 10.

ATLANTA -7 over Carolina
The Falcons are due for a letdown. Especially since they are one of only one of two remaining undefeated teams and because they’re the Falcons and that’s what they do. That letdown could very well come this week, but I’m not about to back the Panthers whose only win came against the winless Saints and who were just embarrassed 36-7 by the Giants. Not even the extra days to prepare could change my mind on a team whose quarterback threw three interceptions and then said, “It was nothing they did, it was all on us.”

San Francisco -4.5 over NEW YORK JETS
Rex Ryan isn’t ruling out Darrelle Revis’ return in the 2012 season in the event the Jets make the Super Bowl. I didn’t make that sentence up. He really said it.

“Let’s see what happens when he goes through surgery, because if there’s that 0.0002 percent chance that he can play in the Super Bowl, why would you take the option away from him?”

It’s obvious that Rex Ryan doesn’t live in real life with the rest of us and after a couple years of Super Bowl guarantees and the promise that he wouldn’t make outrageous claims anymore, I thought Rex was really over it. Shame on me for believing him. The idea of tossing a Jets’ Super Bowl reference into a press conference has just been waiting to slip out of his mouth since training camp and he finally got the opportunity to toss it out there and he did.

KANSAS CITY +1 over San Diego
The Chiefs gave up 75 points in the first two weeks and then needed overtime to beat the helpless and winless Saints. So why am I picking them here? The same reason that Joe Girardi keeps starting Andruw Jones against left-handed pitchers. For no reason of all of course!

HOUSTON -12 over Tennessee
12 points is a lot. And if the first three weeks and the Thursday game this week have taught us anything, it’s that it’s really hard to cover 12-point spreads in this league. But if there’s a team right now capable of covering 12, it’s the Texans. And if there’s a team capable of not covering 12, it’s the Titans.

ST. LOUIS +3 over Seattle
Here’s what I wrote last week about the Seahawks.

“I wanted to take Seattle last week at home against Dallas, and I didn’t, and I lost. I want to take Seattle this week against Green Bay, but I’m not going to.”

Now did I know that the refs were like gambling on the game and that’s why they let the Seahawks hang around with bad calls down the stretch before giving the game on the most controversial ruling since the Steelers-Chargers game in 2008? No, otherwise I would have went with my first instinct and picked the Seahawks. The Football Gods can’t be happy about what the replacements refs did to the sport last Monday night and because of it, picking for the Seahawks here is probably a terrible idea since Pete Carroll probably didn’t take time to plan for the Rams since he was too busy running around Qwest Field like he had just won the Super Bowl.

ARIZONA -5.5 over Miami
The Cardinals are going to lay an A.J. Burnett-like egg here at some point. It makes sense that it would come against the Dolphins in a league where the Saints are 0-3, the Packers and Patriots are 1-2 and the 49ers lose to the Vikings.

Oakland +7 over DENVER
Despite all this talk about how bad Peyton Manning’s velocity is, I still expect him to find it and for the Broncos to be in the postseason. But right now, I have to take the Raiders to cover in Denver. (I regret this pick with each word typed.)

Cincinnati -1 over JACKSONVILLE
This line feels a little low and therefore a little sketchy. Oh, well.

GREEN BAY PACKERS -7.5 over New Orleans
The Packers are 1-2. Aaron Rodgers has three touchdowns, two interceptions and 745 yards through three games. The Packers are averaging 19 points per game. Is this real life? If this is real life then Aaron Rodgers is about to return to MVP form following a game that was stolen from the Packers by the refs and put the Saints in an 0-4 hole and end their season before Oct. 1. Lambeau Field is the last place the Saints want to be on Sunday.

TAMPA BAY -2 over Washington
It’s the “Do I Really Have to Pick This Game of the Week?” It’s good to see the Redskins back in it after their impressive performance in Week 1. Or what we thought was an impressive performance when it was really just a win against a bad Saints team. Welcome back, Washington! It’s been a long two weeks thinking that you might be good this year.

NEW YORK GIANTS +2 over Philadelphia
The Eagles are vulnerable right now. They won in Cleveland by one point in the final seconds, won in Baltimore by one point in the final seconds and then lost in Arizona. Michael Vick has thrown for three touchdowns and six interceptions and there is talk that he might not be the starting quarterback for much longer.

The Giants were outscored 48-30 in the first six quarters this season. In the last six quarters they have outscored their opponents 64-17. Somehow, despite winning their second Super Bowl in four years they are still underrated and under the radar. The Eagles, on the other hand, are still getting respect around the league and from Vegas for accomplishing nothing.

Chicago +3.5 over DALLAS
The idea of Jay Cutler avoiding DeMarcus Ware on Monday Night Football scares me. The idea of Jay Cutler as a whole scares me, but I think this matchup is close enough that I have to take the points.

Last Week: 8-8-0
Season: 20-27-1

Tag: Matthew Stafford

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