Kevin Gilbride – Keefe To The City

Sep 4, 2014

NFL Week 1 Picks

Last season, the Makeshift Yankees got me to September and got me to the Giants. Unfortunately, the Giants couldn’t even make it through September to get me to the Rangers by going winless through September and half of October. Yes, the Giants fought back to give me a meaningful game on the Sunday before Thanksgiving in Week 12, but they blew that game and blew a gift from the Football Gods, who gave them a chance to take over the NFC East lead and a chance at the playoffs despite starting the season 0-6.

This season, the Yankees got me to the Giants (barely) and are still somewhat going even if they need to go like 25-0 the rest of the way to make the playoffs. The Giants, though, might not get me to the Rangers again, judging by their preseason offense and all of the questions surrounding a team that seems to be headed in the wrong direction. But not even the thought of Eli throwing another 27 interceptions can get me down today because it’s the start of the football season.

The first day of football season means the first day of picks, doing longhand addition on the back of bills to create wild parlays, figuring out how to track four fantasy teams without getting the “Stop running this script?” message on a computer, freaking out over a suicide pool in the fourth quarter of the first week, searching for some overseas site that has every NFL game available to watch if you just answer some survey questions, drinking excessive amounts of beer and eating foods that contain little to no nutritional value.

Football is back in my life and so are the New York Football Giants.

When I last left off with the Giants, they won their season finale over the Redskins in front of one of the most embarrassing Week 17 home crowds the Giants have likely ever seen. But when I really left off with the Giants was when they were blowing that Week 12 game against the Cowboys, because after that, the final five weeks of the season were just a formality.

After the Giants won Super Bowl XLII, Plaxico Burress ruined what should have been the next NFL dynasty and the Giants lost their only playoff game in 2008. They missed the playoffs completely in 2009 and 2010 thanks to back-to-back second-half collapses before winning the Super Bowl in 2011. Now they have gone back-to-back years without a trip to the playoffs once again and all I can think is maybe there’s a pattern there.

Football is back and that means so are the weekly picks.

(Home team in caps)

Green Bay +6 over SEATTLE
The Seahawks are going to win on Thursday night because they don’t lose in Seattle and they certainly about to start losing at home on the same night they are raising a Super Bowl banner in their first home game since becoming champions. However, Aaron Rodgers is as healthy as he’s going to be for the next four months and that’s enough for the Packers to cover.

ATLANTA +3 over New Orleans
Here are the last five Saints-Falcons games in Atlanta:

2013 – Week 12: NO 17, ATL 13
2012 – Week 13: ATL 23, NO 13
2011 – Week 10: NO 26, ATL 23 OT
2010 – Week 9: NO 17, ATL 14
2009 – Week 14: NO 26, ATL 23

The Saints have won four of the last five games in Atlanta and all of their wins have been by four points or less. The only Falcons win in there came in a 13-3 season, which should have resulted in Super Bowl appearance if they didn’t blow a 17-point lead in the NFC Championship Game and cost me my 10-to-1 Falcons-Ravens parlay that Sunday. I know how different the Saints are outside of the Superdome, but the Georgia Dome is still a dome and you would think they would play at least near their Superdome abilities, but they were barely able to get by the miserable 2013 Falcons last year with a four-point win. I have been burned too many times by the Saints on the road in the past even if they have been successful of late in Atlanta, and I’m still not over their loss in New England last year.

Minnesota +3.5 over ST. LOUIS
I had to do a double take when I saw this line to make sure I wasn’t reading it backwards or that it hadn’t been posted wrong.

I’m petrified at the thought of picking against Shaun Hill because when he was on the 49ers he cost me a lot of picks. A LOT of picks. I don’t care that Hill is 34 years old and has only attempted 16 passes in the last three years. He could be 56 years old and coming out of a 20-year retirement and starting in this game and I wouldn’t feel comfortable. But it’s time to start collecting on my past losses against Hill and it starts this week.

Cleveland +7 over PITTSBURGH
I’m not sure who told a bigger lie on Wednesday: Wes Welker saying someone slipped something into his drink to produce his positive Molly test or Mike Pettine saying “We’re not going to have a quick hook” when it comes to Brian Hoyer. It’s hard to take Welker at his word when you consider that he looked like this at the Kentucky Derby and that Tom Brady laughed like this when asked if he saw Welker taking anything at the Derby. Brady’s laugh could have meant “Haha, yeah, I’m going to say I watched my suspended friend do drugs,” since that would go over real well for one of the faces of football and for every anti-drug Tom Brady fan on the planet. Or it could have meant “Haha, obviously I watched my friend take drugs because we were partying at the Kentucky Derby.” I think it meant both.

Brian Hoyer is virtually an unknown, having started just two NFL games, and Johnny Manziel is also an unknown having never played one second in the NFL. The difference is that Johnny Football is the new Tim Tebow if Tim Tebow had Manziel’s quarterback abilities. In Week 1 in 2011, it didn’t take Mile High long to start a Rudy-like chant asking for Tebow to play and three weeks later they got their wish when Tebow became the starter. Cleveland has had one winning season in the last 11 years and have made the playoffs once (2002) since returning to the NFL in 1999. It’s going to take a lot less and a lot less time for Browns fans to turn on Hoyer and call for Johnny Football and once those chants start, there’s no stopping them and certainly not a first-year head coach in a job he wasn’t the first choice for. The only reason Manziel isn’t starting is because it’s easier for Pettine to bench Hoyer than it is Manziel.

No one believes Welker and no one believes Pettine.

PHILADELPHIA -11 over Jacksonville
Here are Philadelphia’s last three season-opening opponents: Washington, Cleveland and St. Louis. Apparently things weren’t easy enough for the Eagles to get their seasons rolling with three straight 1-0 starts, so the NFL schedule makers gave them the Jaguars to kick off 2014. So when the Eagles hang 40-something points on the Jaguars on Sunday and for the next week we are forced to hear about how Chip Kelly is a genius and the Eagles’ offense is unstoppable and every trash site that create lists about the “Best” this and “Top” that for content start to compare Nick Foles to all-time greats and the Eagles’ offense to the 2013 Broncos or 2007 Patriots, it will be the NFL schedule makers’ fault. Eff you, NFL schedule makers. Eff you.

NEW YORK JETS -5.5 over Oakland
Here is the Jets’ schedule for their next six games after the Raiders: at Green Bay, Chicago, Detroit, at San Diego, Denver, at New England.

The Jets could easily lose all six of those games, but even if they don’t lose all six of them, it’s going to be very, very hard for them to go even .500 during the gauntlet. The Jets know this and know that if they have any hopes of staying in the playoff hunt through October they HAVE to beat Oakland. And even if they didn’t know this, there’s nothing the Raiders can do about it anyway.

Cincinnati +1.5 over BALTIMORE
Ravens-Bengals seems like it’s becoming what Ravens-Steelers was for so long. And if that’s the case, then I have to go with what I write for every Ravens-Steelers pick:

This game will be decided by three points. And when you know that, how can you not take the points?

CHICAGO -7 over Buffalo
Here is what I said about the Bears in my 2013 NFL Week 1 Picks:

The Bears are the closest things to the Giants in the NFL when you look at their talent and ability to completely destroy a playoff-bound season.

Here is what I said about the Bills in my 2013 NFL Week 1 Picks:

Bills fans don’t like when anyone talks poorly about them or picks against them (even when a spread is involved), but even a Bills fan with the Bills logo tattooed on his neck (someone like this has to exist) or a Bills fan with the Bills logo tattooed on his bald head (someone like this also has to exist) would tell you that the 2013 season is going to be fine.

Both things held true as the Bears blew their season and the Bills were what the Bills have been for basically my entire life. This game and line does feel too good to be true and whenever a game feels too good to be true, it usually is.

HOUSTON -3 over Washington
I want the Redskins to fail, so that when it comes time for Giants-Redskins on Thursday Night Football in Week 4, I can talk to my friend Ray, the biggest Redskins fan I know, and have him in a serious depression.

KANSAS CITY -4 over Tennessee
This line feels low. This game also feels like the one where I’m going to be thinking “Why didn’t I just take the points?” before halftime.

New England -5 over MIAMI
I wanted to take the Dolphins here. I really, really, really wanted to take the Dolphins here. But then I thought about flipping around between games on Sunday at 1:12 p.m. and flipping back to Patriots-Dolphins just in time to see CBS cutting to commercial with their NFL theme music playing and a shot of Tom Brady and Bill Belichick talking on the sidelines as a graphic appears on the screen that says New England 7, Dolphins 0, 13:54, 1st QTR. That exact situation has played out many times and I have tried to avoid being on the wrong end of it.

Carolina +2.5 over TAMPA BAY
I was initially confused about this line because the Panthers went 11-1 after a 1-3 start last season and the Buccaneers became the most dysfunctional team in a league that still has the Raiders. So when I saw the Panthers were 2.5-point underdogs with Cam Newton playing with a hairline fracture in his ribs, I was skeptical and still am. It seems like Vegas is joining the Tampa Bay bandwagon along with a lot of the football world and at least for one week they have me on board, but I’m sitting coach and next to the emergency exit for when I inevitably jump off for Week 2.

San Francisco -5 over DALLAS
If you saw the Cowboys roster and it was listed as the roster for “Team X” and Team X didn’t happen to be a national team with a heavy gambling presence, this line would be a lot higher than 5 for one of the NFL’s elite teams on the road against a team that’s headed for a six- or seven-win season. And I’m going to cherish every minute of the Cowboys’ inevitable miserable season.

DENVER -7.5 over Indianapolis
I honestly believe Peyton Manning has every single play for the entire first quarter already scripted out. If the script comes relatively close to the way it went at home last year for the Broncos then this pick will be fine.

New York Giants +6 over DETROIT
I originally saw this line at DETROIT -3.5 and now it’s moved 2 1/2 points to 6 as everyone watched the Giants’ first offensive team struggle to produce any kind of offense in five preseason games. But even with their struggles as long as Kevin Gilbride doesn’t have a direct connection into Eli Manning’s helmet to tell him to run a draw play on third-and-7 from the opponent’s 47-yard line then I like the Giants’ chances not only to cover in this season-opening game, but all season. (And it’s Week 1, of course I’m not picking against the Giants.)

ARIZONA -3 over San Diego
Maybe one day I won’t be so anti-San Diego and pick against them at any opportunity I get, but that day isn’t today in Week 1.

Blogs • Giants • Giants Thoughts

Sep 16, 2013

Giants-Broncos Week 2 Thoughts: Excuses for Eli Manning

Eli Manning isn’t worried that he threw four interceptions and lost to his brother again or that the Giants are 0-2 and playing for their season in Week 3.

I’m really good at making excuses for Eli Manning. Like really, really good. I’m so good that I would be surprised if Archie or Olivia or Peyton or Cooper are as good as me at making excuses for the youngest member of their family. Why am I so good at this? I think it’s because I think Eli is better than his numbers seem to suggest or better than everyone gives him credit for. And because of that I thought the Giants would get the last laugh at Vegas for making 5 1/2-point underdogs at home against the Broncos and Eli would win what’s likely to be the final Manning Bowl. Instead, Vegas got the last laugh (at me) and Peyton added another footnote to help his case in any Manning debate forever.

How am I supposed to make an excuse for Eli after Sunday’s performance against the Broncos after last Sunday’s performance against the Cowboys? How can I sit here and tell you neither loss was Eli’s fault (or at least mostly his fault)? Should I also tell you that the day after Sunday is Tuesday or that Thanksgiving isn’t always on a Thursday or that CC Sabathia isn’t a complete waste of $23 million this year or that I’m looking forward to a postseason-less October for the Yankees? No, no, no and no. I can’t sit here today and make excuses for Eli Manning, but I don’t need to. Eli has made excuses for himself.

That’s right. Two Super Bowl MVPs or not, Eli Manning answered questions after a four-interception performance in a loss as if to say, “No big deal.” And maybe it is “no big deal” for a quarterback playing with a $106.9 million contract, but that’s also why it should be a big deal. So instead of the usual “Thoughts” following each Giants game, let’s analyze Eli’s postgame answers.

On his level of concern for the way things are going.

“I think we’ll bounce back and I thought there were some good things. The first half I thought we had a lot of opportunities. I think that’s where we did some really good things. We just didn’t get touchdowns. We got field goals and in the second half we had a weird interception off of a foot and we tried to fight back.”

Wow. What a way to start answering questions after an 18-point, four-interception loss that puts the Giants in an 0-2 hole. What a way to open the postgame media session. This would be like CC Sabathia opening a postgame session after giving up five earned runs in five innings or blowing a late-game lead by saying that he needs to get better and he will fix things and turn it around only to never get better, never fix things, turn nothing around and continue to lose. Wait a second …

“Some good things?” “Some really good things?!?!” “SOME REALLY GOOD THINGS?!?!” You threw four interceptions. Hakeem Nicks dislocated his finger. David Wilson rushed for 17 yards on seven carries. Brandon Jacobs rushed for four yards on seven carries. The famous pass rush recorded zero sacks. Should I go on?

But you’re right, in the first half there were some opportunities. And you’re right that you and offensive genius Kevin Gilbride destroyed every opportunity by settling for field goals. And saying “We just didn’t get touchdowns” so nonchalantly is just a little bit of a problem. And it was a nice touch trying to act like the “weird interception off of a foot” was the reason for the loss or the only interception and not just one of four interceptions that included three incredible picks that left me asking myself if I even like football.

“When we got down a couple of scores and tried to press, it could go either way. You could make some plays hopefully and also make some mistakes. We were in a bind. The offense, we have to get a little more balanced. We have to run the ball better and we have to eliminate the turnovers. I think we’ll keep fighting and get back on track. I know everybody in our division lost today, so the way we can look at it, we’re one game back in the division. We’ve got to get back to winning some games.”

You don’t think the offense is balanced? You don’t think 812 passing yards and 73 rushing yards through two games is balanced? Get the eff out of here! Me too!

And everyone else in the NFC East lost on Sunday? Well, when you put it that way who even cares that the Giants lost? Just like who cares that the Yankees lost on Sunday since the Rays and Rangers lost?

On going 3-for-12 on third downs.

“We’ll have to look. Just had a couple … I can think of one drop, some misfires, I got pressured on a few things. I think a couple were down in the red zone that were unfortunate. If we could have converted on those, they could have led to scoring touchdowns and not field goals.”

Yes, “we’ll have to look” at how you can convert 25 percent of your third downs with a receiving trio of Hakeem Nicks, Victor Cruz and Rueben Randle. It’s at least a little reassuring that you do realize that converting first downs in the red zone is an important factor in scoring touchdowns and not settling for field goals. At least we’re on the right track.

On whether or not the season feels like 2007.

“We just have to play better. I’m not trying to make comparisons to years obviously … You can look at it the same, but we have to find a way to play better. Better offense, better defense. I thought the defense played really well that last two weeks, so we have to help them out by scoring some more points and putting the opposing offense in a bind.”

Thank you, Eli! Finally, someone with their head on straight. Can everyone else please stop talking about 2007? Please? Does every 0-2 team go on to win 10 of their remaining 14 games and then win four road games in the postseason and knock off what would have been the best team in NFL history in the Super Bowl? If so, then forget me telling you to stop talking about 2007 and go on and continue to lazily use that storyline and connection and try to relive the most improbable playoff run. But that team had a pass rush and an 1,000-yard rusher. This team has turned the ball over 10 times, has two sacks and 73 rushing yards in eight quarters. Let’s hold the comparisons for a week or two or until the Giants get a win.

On whether or not Peyton will tease him about never beating him.

“I don’t think so. I think this is something that we’re both passionate about. What we’re doing is our job. It’s my concern to this team and getting back to winning right now.”

Oh, he’s definitely going to tease you. But luckily you have that trump card in the second ring and both of them coming against Tom Brady, who Peyton has had trouble beating his entire career.

On if the loss is more disappointing because it’s against Peyton.

“It’s all team-related. You want to go out there and play well, so you’re frustrated that you lost another game. We had some opportunities early on. Their offense started clicking and making some plays. We had turnovers and we just couldn’t catch any breaks. We just really want to get back to where we’re playing better football offensively and get back on track.”

Oh, BS. You know it bothers you that you lost to your older brother and have never beat him.

On the interception intended for Nicks at the end of the first half.

“Just a bad decision by me. I was really just trying to kind of … in a little … on a blitz and trying to throw the ball away, where we wouldn’t get an intentional grounding, but we would get it close. It was unfortunate that I threw it in a spot where their guy could make a play.”

You didn’t “throw it in a spot where their guy could make a play.” You threw it to their guy as if he was the guy trying to make the play. “Unfortunate” was a good word to use.

On the fourth and final interception.

“The last one was on me. Rueben did the right thing, he ran the right route and I threw the wrong route.”

Not only did you throw the wrong route, but I would say that was the worst interception of your career. And that’s coming one week after I said your first throw of the 2013 season, which was an interception, was the worst of your career. OK, maybe the one from last week is still the worst, but this one has to be Top 5. I’m scared to know what’s in store for Week 3 and if you’re going to try to one-up yourself all season with these.

On the pass to Cruz on the first play of the game.

“It was honestly a great way to start the game. Our defense got us a turnover and to hit Cruz on a big one down the field on the first play and then got another first down running with Brandon, it was a good drive. We had a third and long and weren’t able to convert on that one, had to settle for a field goal, but it was a good start. First half there was really good things going on, we just didn’t finish some drives as well as we needed to.”

This is why the interception last week was so insane. The Giants had an entire offseason to decide what the first play of the season would be and Eli threw the ball directly into DeMarcus Ware’s chest. Then they had a week to decide how they would attack the Broncos from the start of the game and they decided on airing it out, which led to a 51-yard pass to Cruz. It was the best play of the day because it set the tone after the Broncos punted, but it also made the day that more frustrating (and of course last week’s season-opening interception that much more unfathomable).

On throwing seven interception in two games.

“Yeah, that’s never a goal. Before the season I like to set goals, keeping interceptions in the single digits. I kind of have to start over here. Obviously, some of them happen and you have to look at decisions and you get some bad breaks. Sometimes you get late in games, fourth-and-10 and we have to make a play and force something here and whether it’s intercepted or incomplete, an interception probably ends up being better right there for us field position-wise. At the end of games or when you’re competing, I’m going to be aggressive and not worry about the stats or quarterback rating at the end. Honestly I’m not trying to throw interceptions, but obviously I’m just worried about getting back to playing well offensively and eliminating some of these turnovers.”

I think you could have gone without saying “that’s never a goal.” I’m pretty sure no one was going to ask if you that was a goal of yours. And I hate to break it to you, but Brendan Ryan (who has 19 career home runs in 2,327 at-bats) has a better chance of hitting double-digit home runs in 2013 (he has four home runs and there are 12 games left) than you do of keeping your interception total to single digits this season. Starting over is a good idea. We can come up with some goals this week before the Carolina game. (I already have some in mind.) And good for you for not worrying about stats or quarterback rating or anything that puts your team in a better position to win. Just keep doing what you’re doing. It’s obviously working.

Blogs

Oct 4, 2012

NFL Week 5 Picks

It’s Week 5 of the NFL season and it’s time for things to turn around.

The same old Giants. That’s who the New York Football Giants are. A second Super Bowl in four years didn’t change who they were between Super Bowl XLVI and Week 1 against the Cowboys, so why would I think that back-to-back wins would change who they are before they played the Eagles? The Giants will let you down, build you back up, suck you back in and then pull the rug out of from underneath you and if two championships weren’t enough to change who they are then I just have to accept that things will never change.

I’m not sure what Eli Manning and Tom Coughlin and Kevin Gilbride were thinking when Eli threw a deep ball to Ramses Barden at the end of Sunday night’s game. It was almost as if they thought they were trailing by four instead of two and it was that play that led to a loss after they were bailed out by the refs to extend the game.

The Giants had a chance to steal a game in Philadelphia on Sunday night and they gave it away. Now they are 2-2 on the season, 0-2 in the division and have the only real easy winnable game left on their schedule this week in the Browns. A loss on Sunday would be as devastating as the loss against the Seahawks was last year before a series of improbable events led to the Giants winning the division at 9-7. If you believe in miracles happening in back-to-back seasons then you don’t consider Sunday a must-win game for the Giants. I’m not one of those people.

***

As for the picks, the NFL season is 24 percent over and I’m still in search of the elusive over-.500 week. That isn’t good. I have gone back to my roots and I’m stopping with the Thursday pick on Twitter and the rest of the picks on Friday. It’s time to shake things up and it’s Thursday for the picks going forward.

Week 5 … let’s go!

(Home team in caps)

Arizona -1.5 over ST. LOUIS
Any other year and this is the “Do I Really Have to Pick This Game of the Week?” But not in 2012 where te cardinals are undefeated and the rams are respectable. I got so used to just knowing that every NFC west game over the last few years was three point game an just take the points but not anymore. The NFC west is longer the worst division in football. That title now belongs to the AFC east

Atlanta -3 over WASHINGTON
The Falcons’ egg is coming. I can feel it. You can feel it. Everyone can feel it. I’m going to pick them one of these weeks when they lose and lose big and now it’s just a matter of correctly guessing when that inevitable week is going to come. It makes sense that it would come on the road against the Redskins, but I like it better to come next week at home against the Raiders leading into the bye week because why wouldn’t it come then?

Philadelphia +3.5 over PITTSBURGH
I feel like I’m picking between the same team here. I can either go with the Team That Lets You Down that is home or the Team That Lets You Down that is on the road. When there are points, take them.

Green Bay -7 over INDIANAPOLIS
If the game took place in Week 1 this line would be through the roof. The Packers are still dangerous despite what the first four weeks might suggest, and I’m not ready to give up on Aaron Rodgers’ covering ability yet.

NEW YORK GIANTS -8.5 over Cleveland
If the Giants can’t blow out Brandon Weeden and the winless Browns at home with their schedule then pack up the balls because this season isn’t going anywhere.

CINCINNATI -3.5 over Miami
The Bengals have been so good to me this year. I picked against them in Week 1 and I picked for them in Weeks 2, 3 and 4 and it’s all gone according to plan. I would feel like I’m stabbing them in the back if I pick the Dolphins to cover against them in Cincinnati. But at the same time, the Dolphins have destroyed me this season, so maybe I should finally give in and pick them? I know that WFAN’s John Jastremski will tell me how the 1-3 Dolphins could be 3-1 if two plays had gone their way and he’s right, but I just can’t do it because they’re still the Dolphins.

Baltimore -6.5 over KANSAS CITY
The 2012 Chiefs and I are done. We’re finished. I don’t even want my stuff back. Just don’t call me or text me. I want them out of my life. I’m not going to let them hurt me anymore. And it’s too bad too because I really like Romeo Crennel.

Seattle +3 over CAROLINA
This game was so close to being the “Do I Really Have to Pick This Game of the Week?” So effing close. The one thing holding it back is that the Seahawks may or may not be good (and probably aren’t good), but that decision hasn’t been finalized yet.

Chicago -6 over JACKSONVILLE
Chicago has been good to me and the Jaguars can’t change that.

MINNESOTA -5.5 over Tennessee
Tennessee Titans at Minnesota Vikings! You’re the “Do I Really Have to Pick This Game of the Week?” Congratulations!

Four weeks ago I never thought I would see the day when the 2012 Vikings would be giving anyone 5 1/2 points in a football game. Maybe 5 1/2 points in a PowerPoint presentation on how to set your franchise back at least a decade when you’re a field goal away from the Super Bowl, but not actual points in an actual game. But then again, four weeks ago I didn’t know the 2012 Titans existed.

Denver +7 over NEW ENGLAND
I interned for 890 ESPN Radio and the legendary Mike Felger in 2006-07. On Nov. 5, 2006 for the Patriots-Colts Sunday Night Football at Gillette Stadium in Week 9, I had to go sit outside in freezing weather as the ESPN Radio tent across from the stadium. The Patriots were 6-1 and the Colts were 7-0 and it was the height of the Tom Brady-Peyton Manning rivalry. People were insane for this game. The place was buzzing like I had never seen a regular season NFL game before and the scene hours before the game made it feel like a Super Bowl. It wasn’t buzzing because it was Patriots-Colts. It was buzzing because Peyton Manning was in town and Peyton vs. Brady will do that. Put these two guys on any teams and the atmosphere will be the same. It could be Patriots vs. Colts or Patriots vs. Broncos or Browns vs. Bills or Hoboken High School vs. North Bergen High School, it doesn’t matter as long as Brady and Manning are the quarterbacks. The Colts won 27-20 thanks to 326 yards and two touchdowns from Manning and four interceptions from Brady.

We haven’t had a Brady-Manning game since Nov. 21, 2010 in Week 11. It felt weird in 2008 when the Patriots played the Colts without Peyton and it felt weird in 2011 when they met again without Peyton.

This game on Sunday should be great. Well, really I just want it to be great because the Yankees are going to get the Sunday night slot and that means Giants at 1:00, this game at 4:25 and Yankees at 8:37. No, I’m not leaving the couch on Sunday.

Buffalo +10 over SAN FRANCISCO
What have the Bills done for me lately? Nothing really other than getting blown out by the Patriots, so I guess that has to count for something. In this league it’s risky to back a double-digit spread, but is it a good idea to take the Bills on the West Coast against maybe the best home team in football after being embarrassed by the Patriots last week? Of course not. But when have I ever been one for good ideas when it comes to NFL picks? But where has reason and logic gotten anyone in the 2012 NFL?

NEW ORLEANS -3.5 over San Diego
Drew Brees and the Saints have nothing left to play for at 0-4 except for his touchdown streak. Saints fans know that their season is over, so if they’re going to bring their “A” game again in 2012 it’s going to come on Sunday night against the Chargers for this record. It’s not like I needed a reason to pick against the Chargers, but this is one.

Houston -9 over NEW YORK JETS
Getting nine points at home on Monday night football isn’t a good look. Th Jets’ season is in turmoil even more so than it has been in any other year under Rex Ryan and everyone is starting to find out that maybe Mike Tannenbaum isn’t the “smart SOB” he called himself in Hard Knocks two years ago.

Last Week: 7-8-0
Season: 27-35-1

Blogs

Sep 7, 2012

NFL Week 1 Picks

It’s Week 1 of the 2012 NFL season and that means it’s the first week of picks.

The other day I talked about seasonal depression. Let’s talk about real depression. Since Tuesday, the Yankees have lost their AL East lead completely then regained it the following night only to lose it again the next night and the Giants lost on Opening Night at home to the Cowboys. But I really shouldn’t worry about that since it’s not like the Giants have the hardest schedule in the entire NFL or anything. And oh yeah, the NHL still isn’t close to preventing a second lockout in eight years. I’m not really a Coldplay fan, but this seems like a good time to get into them.

Before Super Bowl XLVI I promised a lot of things and said a lot of things that sort of got thrown out the window in the heat of Wednesday night’s battle between the Giants and Cowboys. How badly did I fail to hold up my end of the bargain? Let’s ask Maury Povich.

“Neil, you said if the Giants win for the second time in four years and beat the Patriots again and beat Tom Brady and Bill Belichick again and beat all the Patriots fans you went to college with in Boston again and beat the city of Boston again, you won’t care if the Giants don’t make the playoffs for the next 20 years. The lie detector determined … that was a lie!”

“Neil, you said if the Giants win Super Bowl XLVI, you would never say a bad thing about Kevin Gilbride again. The lie detector determined … that was a lie!”

“Neil, you said if the Giants win Super Bowl XLVI that when it comes to the two-minute drill defense, you wouldn’t complain about the Giants’ inability to make a stop in the final minutes of either half anymore. The lie detector determined … that was a lie!”

“Neil, you said if the Giants win Super Bowl XLVI that if the receivers make numerous drops in a game, you said you would no longer complain about the excessive miscatches. The lie detector determined … that was a lie!”

There were a lot more things I said and promised, but I freaked out on Maury, gave the finger to the booing audience, threw a chair, ran behind the set and curled up in a corner and bawled my eyes out while Maury tried to console me with his expert counselor. That’s how bad things were on Wednesday night against the Cowboys.

We always hear about the “same old Jets,” but what about the “same old Giants?” Opening Night was the textbook example of what the Giants have put me through over the years, and while I understand anyone disgusted with me for being upset with a team that is coming off their second championship in four years, but at the same time if you’re not a Giants fan then you just don’t get it.

So I lied. We all do it. We all make promises to win a championship, but when that new season starts, all you want is another championship, and another and another and another. Look at Boston. In October 2004, people were willing to give up their life savings and their homes and their hair and their limbs and their children for a Red Sox World Series. They got it, but a year later those same people were devastated when the Red Sox were eliminated in the ALDS by the White Sox. If the Cubs win the 2013 World Series, their fans will want to win in 2014. And if the Jets win the Super Bowl this year, their fans will want to win it again next year. (Of course neither of those hypothetical situations will come true.) It’s the nature of the beast, and you can’t change it.

I want to apologize to Kevin Gilbride for granting him the empty promise of “Ladies and gentlemen!” immunity and I want to apologize for all of the promises I didn’t keep, but now that the new season has started and the Giants are 0-1, all I can think about is playoff football again (since there might not be playoff baseball for the Yankees) and I remember what it’s like to not have your team in the playoffs, and it sucks.

I’m still telling myself that if the Giants become the Jets this season and don’t make the playoffs, I will still have XLII and XLVI. But I know I’m just lying to myself, and there’s nothing wrong with that.

***

Last season, my NFL picks went about as well as the Bay of the Pigs. I started off hot, got warm, got lukewarm, got cold, got ice cold and then froze. I did manage to redeem myself in the postseason, but by then it was too late to salvage the year. However, I think my success was due to the Giants’ success, so I had less time to worry about the picks because I was focused on the Giants and writing about them on their second magical run.

Week 1 is my favorite week to pick games for. Why? Well, you get a clean slate (well, almost clean since I already lost the Giants game on Wednesday night) and because all you have to go off is what you have learned from the end of last season and the offseason. Once every team plays a game, everything you have taken in over the last seven months gets masked by how that team performed in Week 1 and it only gets worse as they play more and more games.

Week 1 … let’s go!

(Home team in caps)

NEW YORK GIANTS -4 over Dallas
I picked this one on Twitter on Wednesday. How about a mulligan? No? OK.

CHICAGO -10 over Indianapolis
I think there are three places that Andrew Luck didn’t want to begin his NFL career: the SuperDome, Lambeau Field and Soldier Field. Unfortunately for Luck, he will make his first career start in Chicago at Soldier Field against one of the best defenses in the game. I actually thought this line was low given the Bears’ success last season before Jay Cutler got hurt and given how bad the Colts were last year.

Here is how Peyton Manning’s rookie season started:

Week 1 vs. Miami: Loss, 1 TD, 3 INT
Week 2 at New England: Loss, 1 TD, 3 INT
Week 3 at New York Jets: Loss, 0 TD, 2 INT
Week 4 vs. New Orleans, Loss, 1 TD, 3 INT

Peyton started the year 0-4 with three touchdowns and 11 interceptions. He didn’t get his first win until Week 5 against the Chargers and would go just 2-14 that season. If things were that bad for Peyton Manning and the Colts in 1998, I don’t see how they will be that much better for Andrew Luck and the Colts in 2012.

Philadelphia -9.5 over CLEVELAND
You don’t know how bad I want to pick the Browns here, but I just can’t and Brandon Weeden is why. If the Eagles are as good as everyone thinks they are and the Browns are as bad as everyone thinks they are, this line could be 14 and I would still have to take the Eagles.

Buffalo +3 over NEW YORK JETS
On Friday, I did a podcast with my friend and crazy Jets fan Tim Duff. The optimism glowing from him over the phone was what I imagine it’s like talking to a Kansas City Royals fan on the eve of Opening Day. There’s just so much hope and so much promise and the new-car smell and feel of a clean season is very powerful. But I have a feeling Tim is going to be hungover on the train from MetLife back to the city on Sunday afternoon wondering why he even cares about the Jets.

NEW ORLEANS -7.5 over Washington
I watched maybe three minutes of preseason football. And because I’m not a college football guy, the only RG3 I have ever seen is on highlights. Last season, Eli Manning the eventual Super Bowl champions went into the SuperDome and got absolutely destroyed. So am I supposed to think that the absence of Sean Payton is going to be enough for an unknown rookie quarterback and a bad team to go in and play a tight game against the best home-field advantage in the league? No, I’m not.

New England -6 over TENNESSEE
I wonder how much money the Patriots have cost people picking them to cover since 2007. The Patriots continue to get incredible respect, and they have earned it, but if their defense is as bad as it was last year, this will be a pick I regret. On the other hand, I can’t talk myself into taking the Titans and watching the Patriots score touchdowns on their first three possessions, so I have to play it safe here.

Jacksonville +3.5 over MINNESOTA
The year after the Vikings lost to the Saints in the NFC Championship Game I was picking the Vikings every week to open the season. What did they do? They started 0-2 then they were 2-5 then 3-7 and finished 6-10. The 2010 Vikings destroyed me and I’m still not over it. The scars are deep enough that I’m taking Blaine Gabbert and the Jaguars on the road to open the season.

HOUSTON -13 over Miami
The only team the Browns have to worry about giving them a run for the worst record in the league is the Dolphins. Hard Knocks didn’t do the Jets any favors in the summer of 2010 when it came to making unnecessary headlines and this summer Hard Knocks didn’t do the Dolphins any favors by exposing just how atrocious they are going to be this season. Meanwhile Houston is a legitimate contender and the AFC South favorite. If the Yankees don’t make the playoffs and the Dolphins are once again the laughingstock of the NFL, we are going to need to make sure there is someone watching John Jastremski around the clock.

DETROIT -7.5 over St. Louis
It shouldn’t be as easy to win money as it was when you picked against the Rams last season, but it was.

KANSAS CITY +3 over Atlanta
This isn’t a popular pick since Matt Ryan wins the Battle of the Matts over Matt Cassel, but when you take the Falcons out of the Georgia Dome it’s like taking a fish out of the water.

San Francisco +5 over GREEN BAY
If there’s one game that has “REGRET” written over it in red pen and capital letters, it’s this one. Yes, I’m really taking Alex Smith in Green Bay on Opening Day. This feels so wrong. But at least I know what goes through Joe Girardi’s head when he starts Steve Pearce against left-handed pitchers.

Carolina -2.5 over TAMPA BAY
The Panthers have Cam Newton and Steve Smith and a good running game and a good defense. The Bucs have none of those things.

Seattle -3 over ARIZONA
An NFC West matchup! I always love these. I guess I have to take the Seahawks since they know who their starting quarterback is.

DENVER -2 over PITTSBURGH
Tim Tebow’s Broncos beat the Steelers in Denver in the playoffs. So why wouldn’t Peyton Manning’s Broncos have an easier time doing the same thing?

BALTIMORE -6.5 over Cincinnati
Everything points to this being too many points for a division matchup that isn’t the Patriots against the Dolphins.

OAKLAND -1 over San Diego
When I first saw this line, I couldn’t believe the Chargers weren’t favored because no one gets undeserved respect like the Chargers do. For a team that has done nothing to earn respect from Vegas over the last few seasons, picking against the Chargers has been a good way to earn some easy wins, and I’m not going to shy away from my love of picking against them now.

Season: 0-1-0

Blogs • Giants

Feb 13, 2012

Super Bowl XLVI Final Thoughts

After a week of digesting the Super Bowl win and everything that has come with it and from it, Neil Keefe gives his final thoughts on the Giants’ improbable run.

It’s been eight days since the Giants won the Super Bowl and it still hasn’t really set in yet, and maybe it never will. How did the team cruising on the Second-Half Collapse train at 200 mph without any brakes turn into world champions? How did the team that lost to Rex Grossman twice, Charvaris Whiteson and Vince Young beat Aaron Rodgers and the 49ers’ defense on the road and then decapitate Tom Brady, Bill Belichick and the Patriots’ dynasty in the postseason? The answer is: expectations.

All season long I talked about how poorly the Giants play with expectations and how well they play when everyone throws dirt on them. People want to make the connections between the end of the 2011 season and the end of the 2007 season, but I think the connections go all the way back to the beginning of the season.

The 2007 Giants started the season 0-2 and allowed 80 points in those two games and I remember telling my roommates that they might not win a game all year. They were a goal-line stand in Washington away from being 0-3 and basically eliminating themselves from the postseason before September ended. This season I lost all expectations when all the key free agents went elsewhere and the entire team suffered season-ending injuries in preseason. After the Giants lost to the Redskins in Week 1 and let Grossman throw for 305 yards on them I thought the season was over.

The Giants’ season came so close to ending so many times during the regular season, but oddly enough it never really came close to ending in the postseason until Wes Welker couldn’t catch Tom Brady’s poorly thrown pass. What we witnessed since the comeback with 5:41 left in Dallas in Week 14 up until Tom Brady’s Hail Mary attempt hit the ground last Sunday night was more miraculous and more improbable than what we saw in 2007.

I’m exhausted from the last eight days between watching the game, celebrating the victory, attending the parade, listening to every possible Giants interview and consuming every piece of content regarding the team. I’m still running on fumes from last Sunday and drafting off fumes from the Super Bowl victory. I thought about doing a What Went Wrong And Right from my columns on the Giants throughout the season the way I did for the Yankees at the end of their season, but when you win a championship, there’s nothing worthy of complaining about. (Yes, even Kevin Gilbride gets a pass here.)

After a week of digesting the Super Bowl win and everything that has come with it and from it, I have decided to follow up my Super Bowl XLVI Thoughts with my Super Bowl XLVI Final Thoughts. Just picture Jerry Springer sitting on the stool at the end of his show trying to explain what just happened on his Stamford, Conn. stage, except I’m going to try and explain what happened over the last month and a half after letting the idea that the Giants are world champions again settle in.

– Last Tuesday I sprinted down Church St. to get to Broadway, high-stepped some horse manure, got some Dos Equis splashed on me, weaved in and out of thousands of people and rode a crowded subway that had the stench of an element not yet discovered just to see the Lombardi Trophy make its way up the Canyon of Heroes. It was worth it.

– I don’t know who had cheesier lines at the City Hall celebration between Mayor Bloomberg and Steve Tisch? I’m going to go with Bloomberg since Tisch is part owner of the team, so he gets a pass, while Bloomberg decided to start inducting people into the Hall of Fame as awkwardly as possible and predicting another Giants’ championship next season.

– How badly does Michael Strahan wish he played for the Giants this season? Part of me thinks that he thinks he did play for the Giants this season. I was waiting for him to have the final word at City Hall and “stomp out” the Patriots again. I kind of wish he did.

– Eli Manning killed it in Disney World, on David Letterman, at City Hall and at MetLife. There’s no one left that refers to him as “Aw, Shucks” or anyone who doesn’t think he’s elite anymore. This pleases me.

– I’m not sure how many relationships and marriages have been destroyed because of the NFL Network’s existence (and also the MLB, NHL and NBA Networks), but it has to be staggering.

– I spent the weekend in Boston, and it’s always fun to head to the rival city after a devastating defeat, especially one that came out the hands of a New York team. And while in Boston I saw an elementary school in South Boston with huge Patriots logos on the front windows of the building, and I couldn’t help but think about the seven-year-old kids in that school who wonder if their Patriots will ever win the Super Bowl, and whether or not they are becoming the Bills.

– The Giants were incredibly lucky the way their two fumbles bounced, and that the first fumbled was negated by a Patriots’ penalty, and I can’t get over how luck they were. The biggest asset of Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz is their ability to make that one big play that can change a game (or save the season like Cruz did against the Jets), but their biggest flaw is their attempt to make that one big play that leaves them vulnerable to get stripped or hit from behind for a fumble. The same goes for Ahmad Bradshaw.

The Giants kept running the ball and trying to dink and dunk their way to victory over an embarrassing pass defense, and I tweeted during the game that “Running the ball with Bradshaw/Jacobs over passing & letting Tynes kick field goals is like having unprotected sex. Eventually you will lose.” The Giants made a few trips to Planned Parenthood last Sunday, but fortunately got the results they wanted.

– Last week I said…

“Here are some other things we learned this season that no one can do or should do against the Patriots.

1. The Patriots don’t lose in Heinz Field.

2. The Patriots don’t lose back-to-back games.

3. The Patriots don’t lose at Gillette Stadium.

4. Tom Brady never has back-to-back bad games.

5. You don’t want to give Bill Belichick two weeks to prepare a game plan. (This is my favorite because Belichick lost in XLII.)

All of these are now fairytales.”

Now I’m thinking of turning these fairytales into a series of children’s book. If anyone knows a good illustrator, please let me know.

– When I watch the final play of the game I keep thinking Rob Gronkowski is going to catch the Hail Mary attempt and I get this worried sensation that he will. It’s the same feeling I get when I re-watch XLII and see Randy Moss racing down the sideline trying to haul in Brady’s last attempt at perfection. But like Moss, Gronkowski never makes the catch no matter how many times I watch it.

– I’m going to say Tom Brady is more at fault for the missed catch by Wes Welker since he could have thrown a better ball, and I know he could have since he’s Tom Brady. (Don’t tell Gisele.)

– Jake Ballard didn’t do his knee any favors when he tried to come back in the game since he tore his ACL, but I admire him for trying to get back on the field in the Super Bowl despite having a TORN ACL! No one seems to be talking about how the Giants lost Travis Beckum earlier in the game to a torn ACL and then lost Ballard to the same injury. Maybe that many people just aren’t aware of it since Kevin Gilbride wasn’t. Here’s an excerpt from a story on ESPN.com.

Kevin Gilbride was discussing plays with Manning on the sideline when the quarterback blurted, “We can’t run those plays. We don’t have any more tight ends.” He didn’t smile or roll his eyes. He was nonchalantly matter-of-fact, as always, and Gilbride silently nodded, scanning the rest of his play card.

It’s never a good thing when your offensive coordinator doesn’t know which personnel are available in the fourth quarter of the Super Bowl. No big deal.

– I love the idea of Bradying. I love it so much that I decided to get in on the fun last week.

– Mario Manningham’s catch wasn’t David Tyree’s catch and shouldn’t be compared to it since it was a perfect throw and a perfect catch in the smallest of windows. The Tyree catch was the result of a combination of a missed sack attempt, absolute chaos, an insane pass and a miracle catch in the middle of four Patriots defenders. Most people think Manningham will leave the giants since they won’t want to pay him to be the No. 3 receiver, and Paul Dottino told Mike Francesa on WFAN last week that Manningham wants to play in a warm-weather city after playing in college at Michigan and then playing for the Giants. If Manningham’s last game as a Giant was XLVI, we’ll always have his touchdown in the NFC Championship Game and the most important catch of XLVI to remember his time with the Giants,

– Rob Gronkowski partying like he won the Super Bowl after his team lost the Super Bowl isn’t that big of a deal since he’s 22 years old and it’s just another reminder that not every athlete reacts to a devastating loss like fans do. (And no one on the Patriots cared as much Tom Brady and Bill Belichick since they had the most at stake). All I can say is that if Alex Rodriguez were out dancing with his shirt off after losing Game 7 of the World Series, it would be the end of the world. (I mean a shirtless Alex Rodriguez in Central Park during the season was headline worthy.)

– Why all the talk about Tom Brady missing the chance to be “immortal” by not winning XLVI since it would have been his fourth? He also had a chance to win his fourth in XLII and finish the perfect season and didn’t but I don’t remember this much talk about missing out on immortality then. Maybe it’s because this might have been his last chance to get back to the Super Bowl or because he’s getting near that age where quarterbacks start to decline and throw passes to wide-open receivers over the wrong shoulder with a chance to potentially clinch a championship. Nothing would have been more immortal than being 4-0 in the Super Bowl with a 19-0 season on your resume. Why are people acting like this Super Bowl caused him to miss out on immortality? He has missed the train twice now.

– I was a big fan of “Written in the Stars” by Tinie Tempah when it came out. I overplayed it on iTunes and my iPod as if the song was Scott proctor in 2006 and I was Joe Torre. I didn’t kill it by overplaying it like FM radio did with Adele’s “Rolling in the Deep” but I played it enough. Then when the song became the anthem for the 2011 MLB playoffs (playoffs the Yankees would be eliminated in) I didn’t think I could ever listen to it the same way again. Then when the Giants came out to the song for XLVI I thought it was a bad omen after what happened in the 2011 ALDS. But the Giants won the game and now I can enjoy the song again. “Seasons come and go, but I will never change, and I’m on way!”

– Why are the Jets taking out a full-page newspaper ad to congratulate the Giants on winning the Super Bowl? It’s very weird. We all know that both teams don’t like each other and their fan bases certainly don’t like each other, so I’m not really sure who thought this was a good idea. Maybe the same people that thought it was a good idea to have Darrelle Revis hang up in the middle of a phone interview? If the Mets took out a full-page ad to congratulate the Yankees on winning the World Series, their fans would go crazy. (Obviously there isn’t a hypothetical where the Yankees would be congratulating the Mets since the Mets aren’t winning anytime soon.)

Before the season in an email exchange with Ralph Vacchiano of the Daily News, I said:

“All I can hope for is that the season ends better than it did the last two years. And with the way it ended in 2009 and 2010, I will take any playoff berth in any possible way. Give me the No. 6 seed and a path to the Super Bowl built around road games. I don’t care. I just want to watch the playoffs with the Giants in it, and I’m not sure if I can emotionally and physically take another collapse that forces the “Should Tom Coughlin be fired?” discussion for weeks after the season.”

Once they made the playoffs, all I wanted them to do was extend the season for as long as possible. They took us through January and into February (the worst two months for sports and weather in the Tri-State area), and now they pass the baton to the dominant Rangers and surging Knicks as we’re just days away from pitchers and catchers. If the Garden’s teams falter or if February actually turns into February, it won’t matter because I’ll have Super Bowl XLVI to draft off of.

Tag: Kevin Gilbride

NFL Week 1 Picks

Giants-Broncos Week 2 Thoughts: Excuses for Eli Manning

NFL Week 5 Picks

NFL Week 1 Picks

Super Bowl XLVI Final Thoughts