Joe Flacco – Keefe To The City

Sep 17, 2015

NFL Week 2 Picks

It’s hard to know what’s real and what’s not when you only have one week of results to go by and that’s what makes Week 2 the hardest week to pick in the season.

There isn’t an overreaction in the world greater than that after Week 1 in the NFL. After Week 1 we are led to believe that Peyton Manning is finished, Marcus Mariota is the best quarterback ever, the Seahawks’ NFC reign is over, Pete Carroll is an idiot … actually, that’s true … the Vikings are the worst team in football, Joe Flacco is the worst quarterback in the league, the Jets are back and it’s incredible that Eli Manning and Tom Coughlin won two Super Bowls … that might be true too.

Week 1 takes everything you think you know about football and takes all the opinions you made in the offseason and momentarily justifies or destroys them. It can completely change how you go about viewing and picking Week 2 and leave you in a deep state of devastation or financially ruined after the early games if you’re not careful. It’s hard to know what’s real and what’s not when you only have one week of results to go by and that’s what makes Week 2 the hardest week to pick in the season.

(Home team in caps)

KANSAS CITY -3 over Denver
Peyton Manning is lucky his defense bailed him out on Sunday against the Ravens, or the Broncos would be headed to Arrowhead at 0-1 and looking at a possible 0-2 start to the season.

The last two games Peyton has played have to be two of his, if not the worst, of his career. The home playoff debacle after a bye week last season was shocking and whatever he was doing in Week 1 against Baltimore was frightening. I don’t know if this is the Peyton we will see from now until he retires, but if it is, it’s going to be hard to back the Broncos this season.

Houston +3 over CAROLINA
Here’s what I said last week about the Texans:

I’m not sure how Bill O’Brien and Rick Smith came to the conclusion that Brian Hoyer should be the Texans’ starting quarterback over Ryan Mallett. To be fair, it’s not like he named Hoyer the starter over a clearly more talented player and the two likely have the same amount of ability. But did they watch Hoyer play for the Browns? If you’re looking for one touchdown, two interceptions and 227 yards then Hoyer is your guy because that’s what he is and because we know what he is, why not start Mallett? At least there is a chance he might be somewhat good or at least better than Hoyer.

Guess who’s the starting quarterback for the Texans this week? Ryan Mallett.

I was a little off on Hoyer’s game since he threw for 236 yards, one touchdown and only one interception, but if I knew that it was inevitable that he would lose his starting job, how could Bill O’Brien not know this? The Texans wasted one of 16 games last week in what was a very winnable home game and a game they lost by 7 despite Hoyer doing his absolute best to lose it. With the Texans’ defense, Mallett doesn’t even have to be great, he just has to be better than Hoyer, and that’s not hard to do.

NEW ORLEANS -10 over Tampa Bay
Ah, the Saints in the Superdome. There are a few things that you can can count on when picking NFL games like always taking the points in NFC East matchups, always taking the points in Steelers-Ravens games and always taking the Saints at home in the Superdome to cover any spread. There might not be any guarantees in gambling, but those are the three things you can actually feel confident about.

Jameis Winston gave Marcus Mariota a headstart on everyone thinking the Buccaneers drafted the wrong guy No. 1 and in the 30 for 30 about the two in 20 years, there is a lot of video from Week 1 of 2015 to sort through. After this week’s loss in New Orleans, the Bucs go to Houston and by then will be 0-3 and the countdown clock until Lovie Smith’s firing will be closing in on zero.

PITTSBURGH -6 over San Francisco
The 49ers will only go as far as Carlos Hyde takes them. I don’t think Colin Kaepernick is very good since he hasn’t been able to adjust to the league after it adjusted to him, making Anquan Boldin and Torrey Smith and Vernon Davis non-factors, which had made the offense revolve around Hyde’s legs. The Steelers had 10 days off and coming off a loss and having their home opener and having the opportunity to prepare to shut down Hyde is a recipe for disaster for the 49ers, whose over/under win total was 6.5. This is going to be one of those 9.5 losses.

MINNESOTA -2.5 over Detroit
When it comes to Week 1 overreactions, the idea that the Vikings might be the worst team in football is at the top of the list. A bad game on the road in San Francisco against a team everyone had left for dead despite being two-plus years removed from the Super Bowl and one-plus year removed from the NFC Championship Game isn’t going to end the Vikings’ season. There’s no way an offense with Teddy Bridgewater, Adrian Peterson, Mike Wallace and Charles Johnson can be as bad as they were in San Francisco, and there’s no way the Vikings defense is going to let someone embarrass them again the way that Carlos Hyde did in his debut as a starting running back.

BUFFALO +1.5 over New England
After the Giants-Falcons game, this is the game I care the most about this week. Rex Ryan and his 1-0 Bills that have everyone talking because they routed the fraud Colts against Bill Belichick and his 1-0 Patriots that have everyone talking because whenever they win a game for the rest of eternity, there’s going to be some report that cheating might have been involved.

The Rex Ryan Bills looked exactly like the Rex Ryan Jets last week, and that’s not such a bad thing for going up against the Patriots because the Rex Ryan Jets had as much success as anyone not named the New York Football Giants against the Patriots in recent years. A Bills win will have Rex running his mouth as well as he ever did in New York and a Patriots loss might finally get some of the talk about the air pressure in footballs, the frequencies on headsets, the taping of other team’s sidelines and all the other rumored cheating ways of the Patriots to potentially fade. I can dream.

Arizona -2.5 over CHICAGO
Here’s what I said last week about the Bears:

This season I have made a pledge to myself to go hard after the Bears. I’m not getting suckered into thinking they can or will be good and I’m not changing my mind on them.

And I know exactly what the Bears are trying to do me right now. They lost a close game 31-23 to the Packers at home (even though they scored a very late touchdown to make it an eight-point game) and they want me to think, “Hey, the Bears nearly covered against the NFC favorites and now they’re home again against a much lesser offense giving points? Why not take the Bears?” In the past I would have fallen for this trap game, picked the Bears and then watched Jay Cutler throw the game away despite having two stud wide receivers (one of them is now with the Jets), a top running back and a great receiving tight end. Not this year. I’m not falling for the Bears this year.

CLEVELAND +2 over Tennessee
When Johnny Manziel entered Sunday’s game against the Jets and immediately threw a touchdown pass to take the lead, the thought of the Johnny Football era taking off at the hands of the Jets made me smile and feel warm inside. But after that play, Manziel looked exactly like the guy we saw last season, who couldn’t win the starting quarterback job over Brian Hoyer, and the Jets went on to blow out the Browns.

No matter what happens in this game, we all lose. If the Titans win, Marcus Mariota is 2-0 and the best quarterback in history. If the Browns win, it’s going to be Johnny Football all day and all night for the next week. I think I would rather hear about Manziel than Mariota, but since I have been a full-time passenger on the Johnny Football bandwagon, a home loss to the Titans, will have me jumping ship for the foreseeable future.

San Diego +3.5 over CINCINNATI
It’s the Battle of Which Team Has Screwed Me Over More Over the Years. I don’t really know who is worse in this situation when it comes to having to back either Philip Rivers or Andy Dalton, but like the Bears, I made a promise to myself to stay away from the Bs this season: the Bears, Bengals and Browns. I have given myself one mulligan for this season, and unfortunately, my wanting Johnny Football to work out led me to use that mulligan this week to pick the Browns. If the Browns win, I retain my Bs mulligan and can use it on a future game, so maybe at some point I will pick the Bengals, but it won’t be today.

St. Louis -4 over WASHINGTON
I was more than scared when the Dolphins were effing around in Washington last week and failing to cover for most of the game against the Redskins. But maybe the Dolphins looking like the Dolphins I feared they might be in 2015 was a blessing in disguise. Sure, everyone who picked them to cover and who picked them in their survivor pools had to sweat out the win, but their seven-point win helped make this week’s line lower against the impressive Rams defense. So thank you, Dolphins for doing just enough to win to make Week 2 easier. I know that why’s you underperformed so greatly and not because you’re once again going to define “average NFL team” this season.

NEW YORK GIANTS -1.5 over Atlanta
Can you have a must-win game in Week 2? That’s a question I have written about the Giants for the now the fifth straight season. After Sunday night’s disaster that left me speechless and wondering if I even wanted to be a part of the 2015 NFL season or if I ever wanted to watch football again, I actually got over Tom Coughlin’s clock management and Eli Manning’s score management fairly fast. Sure, I spun the situation into the fact that the Giants were supposed to lose in Dallas anyway and that they just need to split the season series with the Cowboys, so they can beat them at MetLife in October, but that’s what fans of losing teams do: they make excuses. I don’t want to have to make any excuses this week. The Falcons outside of the Georgia Dome are very much like the Saints outside of the Superdome, and with the Redskins on Thursday Night Football in Week 3, I should be writing in Week 4 about the 2-1 Giants.

Baltimore -6.5 over OAKLAND
The Ravens went to Denver as 5-point underdogs and lost 19-13 despite Joe Flacco throwing for 117 yards, no touchdowns and two interceptions. The Raiders, meanwhile, lost Derek Carr for most of their game against the Bengals and lost 33-13. There’s just no way I can pick the Raiders here after picking them last week and feel even the slightest bit confident that they will cover against the Ravens. There’s no way at all.

Miami -6.5 over JACKSONVILLE
I made the mistake of backing the Jaguars in Week 1 and thinking they might actually turn it around this season. They still might since there are 15 games left, but they also put up nine points at home against the Panthers, and I’m just not ready to continue to have confidence in the Jaguars. I’d much rather back the overhyped and definitely-going-to-underachieve Dolphins.

Dallas +5.5 over PHILADELPHIA
The best-case scenario for this game is that both teams beat the crap out of each and tie. If the Cowboys win, they will be 2-0 and 2-0 in the division. If the Eagles win, they will be 1-1 and so will the Cowboys, and if the Giants win, the whole division (not including the Redskins since they don’t count) will be 1-1. Having everyone be 1-1 is better for the Giants’ playoff chances to have the entire NFC East be clustered. I will be rooting for the Eagles, but knowing these teams and NFC East games as a whole, it will be decided by three or less.

GREEN BAY -3.5 over Seattle
I was in Seattle when these two teams played in the NFC Championship Game and I wanted the Seahawks to win because I thought they posed a bigger threat to the Patriots in the Super Bowl. I was right until Pete Carroll went and ruined the Super Bowl and the entire offseason. Eff, Seattle and eff the 12s. Sunday, I’m a Cheesehead.

New York Jets +7 over INDIANAPOLIS
It’s nice that once again the Jets got a cupcake game in Week 1 and their fans think the Jets are back and the King of New York and all that. It’s even nicer that they have to go on the road to Indianapolis and face the Colts, who were embarrassed last week and will be looking to go out of their way to erase their awful offensive performance in Buffalo. I think the Jets will cover, but it’s more important to me that the Colts win.

Last week: 9-6-1

NFL Week 14 Picks

The quest for .500 continues with four weeks left in the regular season.

Last week I went into the 4:00 games with a 7-2-1 record between the Thanksgiving games and the Sunday 1:00 games. I ended up finishing the week at 8-7-1. That pretty much sums up this picks season.

Week 14! Let’s go!

(Home teams in caps)

JACKSONVILLE +3.5 over Houston
After a 2-1 Thanksgiving Day, the Thursday picks are 10-4. This is the one game I feel confident picking.

Kansas City -3.5 over WASHINGTON
Once upon a time, the Chiefs were 9-0. Now they’re 9-3. With three consecutive losses to the Denver (27-17), San Diego (41-38) and Denver (35-28) again, the Chiefs have given up almost more points in the last three weeks (103) than they had in their first nine games (111). But now the Chiefs go to Washington where the Redskins are marred by a 3-9 record and a season of turmoil that will likely lead to the departure of Mike Shanahan at the end of the season and will lead to a long offseason of “Robert Griffin III or Kirk Cousins” debates. I can’t wait.

Minnesota +7 over BALTIMORE
I’m picking the Vikings here because they have done a good job for me this season and I want to repay them for their efforts. But really I’m picking them because I want the Ravens’ offense to get off a lackluster start so that John Harbaugh brings out the Wildcat and then Joe Flacco calls out Harbaugh again in his postgame press conference. These are the things you look forward to in Week 14 when your team is 5-7 and the playoffs aren’t a real possibility.

NEW ENGLAND -10.5 over Cleveland
No team fails to cover spreads like the Patriots, but for some reason, every week they are favored by two possessions and every week I talk myself into taking them. I guess I do it because someday they will cover a spread like this 10.5-point one and I don’t want to miss out when they do.

Oakland +3 over NEW YORK JETS
Geno Smith has thrown eight touchdowns and 19 interceptions this season. His last touchdown pass came on Oct. 20 in Week 7. It’s now Dec. 5 and Week 14. Here is what Smith has done since Week 7.

Week 8 at Cincinnati: 20-for-30, 159 yards, 0 TD, 2 INTs

Week 9 vs. New Orleans: 8-for-19, 115 yards, 0 TD, 0 INT

Week 11 at Buffalo: 8-for-23, 103 yards, 0 TD, 3 INTs

Week 12 at Baltimore: 9-for-22, 127 yards, 0 TD, 2 INTs

Week 13 vs. Miami: 4-for-10, 29 yards, 0 TD, 1 INT

He has thrown eight touchdowns and 19 interceptions this season. His last touchdown pass came on Oct. 20 in Week 7. It’s now Dec. 5 and Week 14.

Indianapolis +7 over Cincinnati
Yes, I know the Bengals are undefeated at home and the Colts are the weirdest team in the NFL, but seven points with two 8-4 teams?

Detroit +2.5 over PHILADELPHIA
Yes, the Giants are done when it comes to the playoff picture. But there is that little, tiny, miniscule, minute chance that they could get in. The only way that’s possible is if the Eagles and Cowboys collapse. And given the history of both teams, it’s very possible. The one problem is that the best record the Giants can be is 9-7. The Eagles and Cowboys are both 7-5, but play each other in Week 17, so one of the two teams will win at least one more game this season. So let’s say the Cowboys win that Week 17 game, that means at worst they would finish the season 8-8. And let’s say the Eagles finish the season 1-3 and end up 8-8 also. That’s what it would take for the Giants to make the playoffs.

Miami +3.5 over PITTSBURGH
I just don’t want the Steelers to do well, OK?

TAMPA BAY -3 over Buffalo
There it is! It’s that Game of the Week …

Somewhere someone who isn’t a Buccaneers fan or a Bills fan is going to bet on this game and watch it in its entirety. Think about that.

GREEN BAY -4 over Atlanta
Yes, I’m still upset about the parlay from last year.

DENVER -13.5 over Tennessee
The Broncos are 6-0 at home this season and have won by margins of 22, 16, 32, 16, 24 and 10 points. That’s good enough for me.

ARIZONA -6.5 over St. Louis
The Cardinals couldn’t help the Giants out last week by pulling off the late-game comeback against the Eagles and usually that would make me pick against the team I needed. But in this case, I’m staying with the Cardinals since if I pick against them, they will cover. Yes, that’s what this picks season has come to.

New York Giants +4 over SAN DIEGO
The over/under on stories from the FOX broadcast team about the 2004 Draft and Eli Manning and Philip Rivers during this game is set at 12.5 and I have the over. Even if the Giants’ season is over, I don’t want Eli to lose to Rivers, or get outplayed.

SAN FRANCISCO -2.5 over Seattle
Why wait until Feb. 4 to have the Seahawks-Broncos Super Bowl? Why not just have it right now while temperatures are still somewhat manageable since that’s what the Super Bowl matchup is going to be? The same way the Broncos and Falcons met in Super Bowl XLVII. The same way the Patriots and Packers met in Super Bowl XLVI. And the same way the Patriots and Falcons met in Super Bowl XLV. Sure there are years like 2009 when the Colts and Saints (both 1-seeds) did end up playing in the Super Bowl, but more times than not the 1-seeds don’t meet.

NEW ORLEANS -3.5 over Carolina
Do I need to post it again from old picks? OK, I will …

The Saints’ last home loss with Sean Payton as head coach came in Week 17 in 2010 when they had nothing to play for. Including the playoffs, the Saints have won their last 15 home games since that loss and here are their margins of victory going back from Week 4 in 2013 to Week 2 in 2011 with Payton as head coach: 21, 24, 6, 17, 28, 29, 14, 25, 11, 55, 7, 17, 18, 32 and 3.

CHICAGO +1 over Dallas
What I said about the Eagles.

Last week: 8-7-1
Season: 83-101-8

NFL Week 2 Picks

It’s Week 2 of the NFL season and the picks only get harder from here.

Can you have a must-win game in Week 2? Yes, you can because the Giants do.

After this week’s game against the Buccaneers, the Giants play the Panthers on Thursday Night Football, and after that, it’s all downhill schedule-wise except for Week 5 against Brandon Weeden’s Browns. After Week 3, they will have five NFC East games left, seven games against 2011 playoff team and then of course the Browns in Week 5. (For some reason I have this feeling that Weeden won’t be the Browns’ quarterback by Week 5.)

I have gotten over last week’s Opening Night disaster though the Yankees are trying their best to keep me down and I have moved on to the Buccaneers, who are one of only three “easy” games on the Giants’ schedule now that it appears the Redskins are for real for the first time since 2007.

Last week, I warned about what happens for the Week 2 lines and how perception shifts and changes. It was only a week ago we thought the Giants would finally be an all-passing team, the Redskins still sucked, the Bills might finish a season with a playoff game, the Jets would be a joke and the Packers would be out to avenge their 15-1 season and early playoff exit. All of these things might still be true and could still happen, but all we have is one game and one week of play to go off of, as does Vegas.

I took plenty of tests in my day where I sat down, started reading through the questions and didn’t know the answer to a single one. I’m sure we all had this happen at one point. (Well, I hope I’m not the only one or I will feel terrible.) So what did I do? I started writing, made things wordy, made things up and put together a test full of 100-percent BS. I knew I wasn’t going to get an A on it, but I wasn’t looking for an A either. I was looking to salvage my grade and weather the storm and just survive the class and not fail. In Week 2, I’m not looking to go 15-1 or even 12-4. I’m trying to stay afloat until I can make more sense out of the 2012 season and how good or bad each team is.

Week 2 … let’s go!

(Home team in caps)

Chicago +5.5 over GREEN BAY
There are probably a lot of people that want their “Packers in the Super Bowl” predictions back right about now. Last year’s 15-1 and defending champion team doesn’t look like it’s back for 2012. The offensive line has holes and the defense let Alex Smith complete 20 of his 26 pass attempts and throw for two touchdowns and Frank Gore run for 112 yards on just 16 carries. And I don’t think we even need to get into the Packers’ running game and Cedric Benson.

Not only do the Packers not look like the team that went 15-1 and then lost their first playoff game, but they have now lost back-to-back games at Lambeau Field with the loss to the 49ers and the playoff loss to the Giants. Before the playoff loss in January, their last home loss was on Oct. 17, 2010 against the Dolphins in Week 6. Their last home loss before that? Nov. 1, 2009 against the Vikings in Week 8.

There’s a good chance the Packers make me pay for picking the Bears, but until they show me something in 2012, I can’t be giving away 5 1/2 points to a division rival.

NEW YORK GIANTS -7.5 over Tampa Bay
If the Giants can’t blow the Bucs out at home after a Week 1 embarrassment then I’m going to need a hobby this fall and winter if there’s no NHL.

NEW ENGLAND -14 over Arizona
If the Patriots were favored by 21 points in this one I would still take.

The last time the cardinals went to Foxboro, I took the Cardinals. They lost 47-7 to Matt Cassel’ Patriots. Sure, that was nearly four years ago and neither team is even close to being the same, but that loss scarred me when it comes to trusting the Cardinals away from home and like the Packers, the Patriots don’t lose at home (unless they’re playing the Giants.)

INDIANAPOLIS -1.5 over Minnesota
The “Do I Have To Pick This Game of the Week?” Last week we had two of these games with Seattle-Arizona and Carolina-Tampa Bay. Next week we have Buffalo-Cleveland and Jacksonville-Indianapolis. (It’s weird that because of one Redskins game I’m not putting the Washington-St. Louis game in this paragraph.)

New Orleans -3 over CAROLINA
Last year the difference between the Saints at home and the Saints on the road was like the difference between Tara Reid in 1999 and Tara Reid in 2009. But the Saints no longer seem to be the hot blonde in American Pie and are now that girl that was in American Pie, but had a liposculpting procedure that went wrong. Even though the Saints were embarrassed at home by the Redskins, the Panthers scored 10 points against the Buccaneers and I can’t erase that from my memory.

Kansas City +3 over BUFFALO
There’s a good chance that if this game were played in three more weeks it would be a “Do I Really Have to Pick This Game of the Week?” But because perception is that the Chiefs and Bills are supposed to be playoff bubble teams, this game isn’t ready to be classified as a joke yet. Then again, these teams allowed a combined 88 points last week, so maybe we’re already there.

Baltimore +2 over PHILADELPHIA
When I thought of Joe Flacco between the AFC Championship Game and Week 1, I thought of an old vet who just wasn’t good and that was because of ridiculous facial hair last season. I still knew he was a 27-year-old who had been to two AFC Championship Games, but that facial hair really screwed with my head. All offseason I kept hearing about how he was going to have a big year and could receive “elite” status and I laughed because of his appearance and not his abilities. Then on Monday Night Football he looks like 2008-2010 Joe Flacco, throws for 299 yards and two touchdowns.

Oh yeah, the Eagles beat the Browns by one point and Michael Vick threw four picks. Let me trust him right away!

Oakland -2.5 over MIAMI
The Raiders’ blocked punts kept me from an 8-8 record in Week 1 and for some stupid reason I’m going to pick them again. Well, maybe the reason isn’t that stupid … they’re playing the Dolphins.

CINCINNATI -7 over Cleveland
I could talk about how the Bengals are a 2011 playoff team coming off an embarrassing loss to the Ravens on Monday Night Football or how Andy Dalton will be out for revenge. But I’ll just talk about the only things that matters…

Brandon Weeden: 12-for-35, 118 yards, 0 TD, 4 INT, 5.1 QB Rating.

Houston -7.5 over JACKSONVILLE
I hate when people say, “The man who needs no introduction…” but then they give one anyway. Well, this pick needs no explanation, so I’m not going to give one.

Dallas -3 over SEATTLE
I don’t think the Cowboys are as good as they looked on Opening Night against the Giants, but I also know that there are passengers on the Russell Wilson hype train that are willing to jump off while it’s still moving.

Washington -3 over ST. LOUIS
I can already see a letdown game from the Redskins here and I’m fully prepared for it.

New York Jets +6 over PITTSBURGH
Is it ever a good idea to believe in the Jets, especially after a 20-point win that is most likely not indicative of what type of team they are at all? Of course not. Am I letting one game after an offseason full of chaos make me think differently? Of course I am.

SAN DIEGO -6 over Tennessee
I hate picking the Chargers ever, but I don’t really have a choice here.

SAN FRANCISCO -7 over Detroit
It can’t be good that I think the best team in the NFL is the one whose quarterback is Alex Smith.

Denver +3 over ATLANTA
Peyton Manning’s second week back and his second primetime game in as many weeks. After this game, Peyton still has another Monday Night game (Week 6 against San Diego), a Sunday Night game (Week 8 against the Saints) and a Thursday Night game (Week 14 against the Raiders). I will be taking him in all of them.

Last Week: 7-9-0
Season: 7-9-0

Tag: Joe Flacco

NFL Week 2 Picks

NFL Week 14 Picks

NFL Week 2 Picks