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Tag: Jeff Tuel

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NFL Week 10 Picks

The Giants are back from their bye week and hopefully the second half of their season and the second half of the picks season will go better than the first half.

The Giants haven’t ruined a Sunday for me since Oct. 6 when they lost to Nick Vick in Philadelphia. Since then they have played on Thursday Night Football, Monday Night Football, beat the Eagles at MetLife in their only Sunday game since the loss to Nick Vick and then had their bye week. So that means this Sunday a month without Giants-induced depression Sundays will be put to the test against the Raiders.

With the Giants playing the Raiders and the Cowboys in New Orleans for what is likely an inevitable loss at the Superdome where everyone loses, the Giants could be one game back with seven to play and one of those seven against the Cowboys. Before I talk myself into taking the Giants back and making it Facebook official again, I’m just going to get into the picks.

Week 10! Let’s go!

(Home team in caps)

MINNESOTA +2.5 over Washington
The Thursday Night Football record is now at 7-2 and with success comes expectations, which is the last thing I need as I wait for the other shoe to drop with my Thursday picks. But in my wish to have the NFC East cleared out so that it’s the Giants and the Cowboys down the stretch it means the Redskins need to start losing.

TENNESSEE -12 over Jacksonville
The Jaguars have lost by less than 12 points once this season when they lost 19-9 in Oakland in Week 2. Aside from that game, they have lost by 26, 28, 34, 14, 16, 18 and 32. So as I have said before, there isn’t a realistic line in which I would take the Jaguars and certainly not at 12.

Philadelphia +1 over GREEN BAY
The moment Seneca Wallace took over for an injured Aaron Rodgers on Monday Night Football, we all finally saw what the Packers are without Rodgers even at Lambeau. Now Seneca and the Packers get to face Nick Foles and the Eagles and try to put out the only flicker of hope Philadelphia sports fans have right now with the Flyers in last place, the 76ers expected to finish last in the NBA and the Phillies still owing Ryan Howard at least $85 million between now and 2017. I want nothing more than for Foles to add to Philadelphia sports misery, but I know how bad Seneca Wallace is.

Buffalo +3 over PITTSBURGH
The Steelers’ season is over. At 2-6 and 3.5 games back in the AFC North and 2.5 games back of a playoff berth the have nothing to play for. They are just a name at this point and if their roster of players’ team name were say the Falcons and not the Steelers then they wouldn’t be a 3-point favorite at home against the Bills, but thanks to their national following they are. The Steelers are an old, worn-out team and unfortunately they aren’t facing Jeff Tuel this week.

NEW YORK GIANTS -7.5 over Oakland
Is it 2012? Or 2011? Or 2010? Or any year other than 2013? The Giants favored by more than a touchdown? The 2013 Giants? If we’re going to make this thing work down the stretch where it’s the Giants and Cowboys fighting for the division and a home playoff game (yes, the Giants could possibly host a playoff game this season) then they are going to need to prove they are capable of a run. And proving you’re capable of a run means beating the Raiders by more than a touchdown at home.

INDIANAPOLIS -9.5 over St. Louis
Kellen Clemens on the road. Kellen Clemens on the road. Kellen Clemens on the road. Kellen Clemens on the road. Kellen Clemens on the road.

Seattle -6 over ATLANTA
The Seahawks’ four road wins have come by 5, 3, 12 and 5 points, so it’s hard to feel confident about them going to Atlanta and covering 6. But this will be the first game the Falcons will play since having their season officially ended and there’s not better than an elite team and a real true Super Bowl contender facing a team that has nothing to play for.

BALTIMORE +1.5 over Cincinnati
The defending Super Bowl champs are a loss on Sunday away from not being able to defend their title this season. It wouldn’t be a surprise since they are currently riding a three-game losing streak with those three losses coming by a combined 11 points and since they just lost after their bye week in Cleveland to Jason Campbell and the Browns. Even knowing all of this, I’m taking the Ravens.

Carolina +6.5 over SAN FRANCISCO
The Panthers’ five wins have come against teams with a combined 8-33 record, so this week it will certainly be the Panthers’ first real test since their 12-7 Week 1 loss to the Seahawks. The Seahawks, 49ers and Saints are the elite teams in the NFC, but the Panthers are in the tier right below them.

ARIZONA -2.5 over Houston
Yup, it’s that Game of the Week …

Somewhere someone who isn’t a Cardinals fan or a Texans fan is going to bet on this game and watch it in its entirety. Think about that.

Denver -7 over SAN DIEGO
This line does seem high for a divisional matchup between a great team on the road against a good team, but I would rather lose with Peyton Manning than lose with Philip Rivers knowing that I went against Peyton Manning.

NEW ORLEANS -7 over Dallas
The Saints burned me in Foxboro with their last-second loss to the Patriots and then again with their embarrassing performance in East Rutherford. But the Saints never burn me at home in the Superdome where no opponent really stands a chance, especially not the Cowboys, who have one road win this season that came against the Eagles in Week 7. That’s not exactly the road resume of a team playing in primetime in New Orleans that you want to back.

Miami -3 over TAMPA BAY
Darrelle Revis said on Twitter that making $16 million and playing for the winless Buccaneers is better than making $12 million and playing for the 5-4 Jets. Sure, Revis has a point that getting paid 33 percent more is better, but have you heard the term “Revis Island” (that Revis recently trademarked) lately or anything positive about Revis? No, you haven’t because Revis is playing in the wrong system for his talent and abilities on the wrong team and wasting away in Tampa Bay in the Buccaneers’ 0-8 circus while his former team currently owns the 6-seed in the AFC playoffs. Enjoy the extra millions in football Siberia.

Last week: 6-6-1
Season: 57-71-5

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NFL Week 6 Picks

I finally broke up with the Giants after their loss to the Eagles. But then I took them back just in time for their game against the Bears.

Breaking up with the Giants is hard to do. I deleted their number, unfriended them on Facebook, put all the memories they gave me in a box that I then labeled “JOKE” and have even avoided using the word “giant” in any context, choosing to go with “huge,” “enormous” and “mammoth” among others. But guess what? I let them back in my life! I know, I know! I’m an idiot and at midnight on Thursday night when they’re 0-6 and Eli Manning, Tom Coughlin and Justin Tuck are making excuses like a sophomore in high school whose English midterm is late again (no, that wasn’t me…) you can all tell me “I told you so.” But this morning, with the thought of being still in the division thanks to the Cowboys, it was the equivalent of seeing a few late-night texts from the Giants or seeing a request that “New York Giants wants to be your friend” waiting for me on Facebook and I couldn’t help but give them what is now their third chance this season. I know I’m stupid, but just shut up for a minute and let me explain.

The difference this time is I’m fully prepared for the Giants to get beat up by the Bears and run out of Soldier Field like a drunk Packers fan wearing a foam cheesehead with his entire body painted green screaming “Bears suck!” during a Bears-Packers game. I’m not going into this game thinking the Giants are going to win or that they even have a real chance to win. I’m going into the game hoping that they have a Lloyd Christmas-Mary Swanson-like small chance or even smaller to stay in the game until the fourth quarter and then maybe Eli Manning will find his missing fourth-quarter magic or maybe Jay Cutler will hand the Giants a win the way he has handed so many other teams wins in his career. You’re still not sold? Neither am I really.

***

Apparently as the Giants season goes, my picks go. Week 5 was another train wreck that proved that logic and reasoning is pointless when it comes to the 2013 NFL. On top of it all, anything you have seen or learned or figured out is worthless at the end of each week and completely irrelevant in picking the following week. It’s almost as if the movie 50 First Dates has become me making my NFL picks. And for as bad as that movie was, my picks have been worse.

Week 6 … let’s go!

(Home team in caps)

New York Giants +7.5 over CHICAGO
This is the last time I will be picking the Giants. The absolute last time. This is it. It’s really it.

KANSAS CITY -8 over Oakland
Picking an Andy Reid-led team with Alex Smith as the starting quarterback (even if they are undefeated) this many times is sure to backfire at some point. But the Chiefs have won four of their five games by at least nine points and that’s good enough for me to pick against the Raiders on the road.

Philadelphia -1.5 over TAMPA BAY
It doesn’t matter if Michael Vick starts or Nick Foles starts or Nick Vick (the combination of the two that we saw against the Giants) starts against the Buccaneers. Any of those three options is better than Mike Glennon, who will be making his second career start following Josh Freeman’s release and the circus Greg Schiano created down in Tampa Bay. And if Glennon for some reason can’t play or is removed from the game, you know who his backup is? Dan Orlovsky, that’s who. The future is bright in Tampa Bay.

BALTIMORE +3 over Green Bay
I originally had Green Bay -3 in this game and because I switched it Green Bay is 100 percent going to cover. I have been down on the Ravens through five weeks, but their 26-23 win in Miami last week has made me a believer for at least Week 6 in the Ravens. And I don’t really trust the Packers away from home.

MINNESOTA -2.5 over Carolina
Need a good laugh? Here’s what I said about the Panthers last week:

I know Bill Parcells said, “You are what your record says you are,” and the Panthers are 1-2, but they are good.

Done laughing?

The Panthers repaid my praise for them by getting embarrassed by the Cardinals. (The Cardinals!) A 22-6 loss in a game that featured seven combined turnovers (Carolina had four and Arizona had three), including three picks for both Cam Newton and Carson Palmer.

Meanwhile the Vikings are coming off their bye and their first and season-saving win against the Steelers in London.

HOUSTON -7.5 over St. Louis
The Rams did manage to beat the Jaguars by two touchdowns to cover their 11.5-point spread, but the Jaguars were in the game for far too long and did lead for enough time that it made me think the Jaguars wouldn’t finish the season 0-16 and made me realize just how bad the 2008 Lions were to finish that season 0-16.

NEW YORK JETS -2.5 over Pittsburgh
I expected the J-E-T-S to get blown out of the Georgia Dome on Monday Night Football and instead they put together a 2011 Giants-esque game-winning drive to improve to 3-2 on the season. The Giants are 0-5 on the year, the Yankees’ season ended 11 days ago and in the Rangers’ most recent game they were run out of San Jose in a 9-2 loss. Maybe me picking the Jets this week will restore some order in the New York sports world.

Cincinnati -7.5 over BUFFALO
Last week someone named Jeff Tuel took over for an injured E.J. Manuel in the Bills’ 37-24 home loss to the Browns (who also lost their starter Brian Hoyer to a torn ACL and had to replace him with former start Brandon Weeden) on Thursday Night Football. (How great has Thursday Night Football for 17 weeks worked out?) How bad was Tuel? Bad enough that the Bills have signed someone named Thad Lewis off their practice squad to start over Tuel this week. Bills head coach Doug Marrone said, “Thad gives us the best chance to win,” but he’s wrong. He’s not wrong that Lewis is better than Tuel because he might be, though that’s not saying much. He’s wrong that the Bills have a chance to win this game. They don’t. Now we just need Lewis to be bad enough that the Bengals can cover.

SEATTLE -13.5 over Tennessee
Ryan Fitzpatrick finally gets a chance to start for the Titans and he gets the then-5-0 Chiefs (now 6-0) and the 4-1 Seahawks (soon to be 5-1). Sometimes things aren’t fair for Harvard graduates who get $59 million contracts with $24 million of guaranteed money.

DENVER -27 over Jacksonville
At no point would I feel nervous about taking the Broncos in this game. The Broncos beat the defending Super Bowl champions by 22 points in Week 1 and beat the Eagles by 32 points in Week 4. You don’t think they can beat the winless Jaguars by four touchdowns? The Rams managed to beat the Jaguars by two touchdowns last week.

SAN FRANCISCO -11.5 over Arizona
The Cardinals are on a mission to destroy my picks as best they can this season and so far they are succeeding. I can’t help that I want to pick against Carson Palmer every possible chance I get. Is that so wrong?

Since the 49ers were embarrassed in Seattle and Indianapolis in back-to-back weeks in Weeks 2 and 3, they are 2-0 and have outscored their opponents (St. Louis and Houston) 69-14. The NFC favorite that was supposed to go back to the Super Bowl this season is back after their two-week hiatus and now they need to put an end to the pesky, pick-destroying Cardinals.

New Orleans +1.5 over NEW ENGLAND
The Saints proved my whole theory about them being a different team outside the Superdome wrong with a win on the road at Soldier Field. But maybe that theory was only good for Saints teams of the past? Maybe the 2013 Saints are capable of winning road games against worthy opponents? Their two-point win over the Buccaneers said they weren’t, but now their eight-point win over the Bears says they are.

The difference in New Orleans is with Rob Ryan’s defense, which hasn’t allowed more than 18 points in a game this season (17, 14, 7, 17 and 18). In the past the Saints weren’t worried about giving up points knowing they could outscore any team in the league, especially at home, but now the Saints (at least through five games) appear to be a well-balanced team and that’s bad news for the rest of the NFC.

Washington +6.5 over DALLAS
I was nervous that the Cowboys were going to stop the 2013 Broncos train in the final minutes on Sunday, but Tony Romo put to rest my fears with a Tony Romo game-ending interception to keep the Giants mathematically involved in the NFC East despite having no wins. Now the Redskins are coming to the Big D with a chance to take over the division lead with a win and an Eagles loss. Everyone keeps talking about how the NFC East will be won by an 8-8 team or possibly even a 7-9 team. If it’s possible I’m pulling for a 6-10 team to come out of the East. The scary thing is the Giants would have to play .545 football the rest of the way and go 6-5 just to finish 6-10 at this point. Has anyone told Antrel Rolle this?

Indianapolis -2.5 over SAN DIEGO
I keep picking against the Colts and they keep making me pay. Thankfully, I jumped off the Chargers undefeated covering streak in time for their 10-point loss to the Raiders last week.

Last week: 5-9-0
Season: 29-44-4

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