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Tag: Hiroki Kuroda

Blogs • Email Exchanges • Yankees

Jun 18, 2013

A Series of Firsts for Don Mattingly’s Dodgers

The Dodgers are in the Bronx for a two-game series, presenting a lot of firsts at Yankee Stadium, including one with this email exchange with Brittni Michaelis.

The Dodgers are in the Bronx for the first time since 1981 and for the first time since interleague play began and Don Mattingly is at Yankee Stadium in the visiting dugout for the first time. So I figured, let’s keep it going with things happening for the first time. What does that mean? An email exchange with a girl and my girlfriend: Dodger fan Brittni Michaelis.

Keefe: Your Kings couldn’t defend the Cup. Your Lakers were an atrocity. The Vikings quarterback is Christian Ponder. But when you thought things couldn’t get any worse, your $216 million Dodgers are 29-39 and in last place in the NL West. Last place! In the NL West! Again, that’s … Last place! In the NL West! Even Christian Ponder can chime in and say something sucks when it comes to the Dodgers.

Maybe you’ll blame the ownership group for trading for and putting their faith in players who didn’t pan out in Boston and blamed God for losses (Adrian Gonzalez) or wore out their welcome in Boston (Josh Beckett) or got fat (Josh Beckett) or stopped caring about baseball because they had a kid (Josh Beckett) or spend time on the disabled list with mysterious injuries (Josh Beckett) or former stars that even the Marlins didn’t want (Hanley Ramirez) or a $142 million outfielder who broke down like a dumped Bachelor contestant when asked about the media treatment in Boston (Carl Crawford). Maybe you’ll blame Ned Colletti for being the general manager during the time when all of these moves took place. But if you’re going to blame injuries then you came to the wrong place because the Yankees have watched Derek Jeter, Mark Teixeira, Curtis Granderson, Alex Rodriguez, Francisco Cervelli, Kevin Youkilis, Andy Pettitte and Joba Chamberlain all spend time on the disabled list this season.

So if I were to ask you why the Dodgers are 7 ½ games back in the NL West or why they are five games worse than the Padres or why they only have three more wins than the Houston Astros, how would you answer? Actually I’m going to ask you that. Why are the Dodgers so bad and who is to blame?

Michaelis: Well, hello to you too, pal. Thanks for coming out swinging. While you make valid points about the Lakers and Vikings, I refuse to get rattled by you. I refuse.

Despite your ever-so charming wittiness and sarcasm, this Dodgers team is no different from the ones in the past. The issue with this team isn’t the ownership group, injuries or individual players.

Sure, Josh Beckett sucks (0-5 with a 5.19 ERA) and would rather be drinking beers, eating fried chicken and surfing off the coast of Malibu, but can you really blame him? Before he experienced “hand-numbness” and was subsequently put on the disabled list, his last three starts weren’t terrible for him (0-2, 13 IP, 17 H, 12 R, 9 ER, 7 BB, 16 K). But his career might be over because of numbness in his pitching hand, so give the guy a break.

I realize you dislike Gonzalez almost as much as I dislike Jason Schmidt (even the mention of his name makes me angry), but Gonzalez is the only reason why we aren’t 20 games under .500. His stats this season? .303/8/44 with 71 hits. He has a better average (.308), more RBIs (44) and a better OBP (.365) than any Yankee. I’m sure you’re thinking, “Well that’s because the Yankees play in a better division and how can he only have 8 homeruns in the NL West?” But I can’t control what division the Dodgers are in, just like I can’t control the air conditioning on the Metro North.

The issue isn’t one player, the issue is the whole damn team. The lack of chemistry, the lack of consistency and most importantly, the bullpen are the reasons why the Dodgers are 10 games below .500. That bullpen is the death of me. It will be the reason why I have gray hairs before the age of 24. It doesn’t matter what our starting rotation does, the slobs in the bullpen can’t do their job. This happens EVERY year.

You know how in Step Brothers, Dale (Will Ferrell) and Brendan (John C. Reilly) interview for jobs with Seth Rogen’s company and they have it in the bag until Dale screws up and farts? That’s like the Dodgers bullpen. The Dodgers lead the league with 15 blown saves. Their closer, Brandon League, has a 5.54 ERA, has put 41 runners on base in 26 innings and has a .308 batting average against. (Where is Hideo Nomo when you need him?) If Andy Pettitte can still pitch at age 41 then Nomo needs to come out of retirement at the age of 44. Come out, come out, wherever you are, Nomo.

Keefe: I’m embarrassed. For someone who is supposed to be an expert on all things anti-Josh Beckett, I can’t believe I forgot about his surfing/body surfing/boogie boarding trip in Malibu with his gut flopping around in the Pacific Ocean. My apologies.

But your response made me realize two things:

1. I miss being able to talk about people like Josh Beckett, Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford now that they are in the NL West and out of my life.

2. It’s funny how naive you are about the entitled frauds that wear your favorite’s team uniform.

I’m not sure how you or anyone could feel bad for Josh Beckett. Beckett is making $15.75 million this season. So if he made 30 starts, which he has only made once since 2010 and twice since 2008, he would make $1 million per start. But he hasn’t started since May 13 and won’t come close to 30 this season, so do the math. He’s stealing money just like your hero Jason Schmidt did from the Dodgers. Sure, Schmidt only started 10 games (3-6, 6.02 ERA) for the Dodgers in three years after signing a three-year, $47 million deal, but his time on the disabled list likely helped the Dodgers.

I can’t tell you how good it makes me feel to see Beckett have no wins, a 5.19 ERA, a 1.500 WHIP and have grown a third and fourth chin since arriving in Los Angeles. The only bad part is I wish he was doing this in Boston because the media and fans there would have destroyed him while in Los Angeles people feel bad for him.

(Here’s the winless Beckett in 2012 talking about missing a start with a back problem, but being seen on a golf course during the time when he was out of the Red Sox rotation. What a guy!)

As for Adrian Gonzalez, let’s take a trip down memory lane. Here’s what your awesome No. 3 hitter had to say following Game 162 in 2011 after the worst regular-season collapse in Major League Baseball history.

“We didn’t do a better job with the lead. I’m a firm believer that God has a plan and it wasn’t in his plan for us to move forward.”

“God didn’t have it in the cards for us.”

“We play too many night games on getaway days and get into places at 4 in the morning. This has been my toughest season physical because of that. We play a lot of night games on Sunday for television and those things take a lot out of you.”

“They can put the Padres on ESPN, too. The schedule really hurt us. Nobody is really reporting that.”

Poor, Adrian Gonzalez. He has to play baseball for $21 million a year and it’s really hard and demanding. It’s not his fault that his teams, whether it be the Padres or Red Sox or Dodgers, have collapsed down the stretch with him as the focal point of their offenses. Why would it be his fault? And why should he be held accountable?

I just can’t wait for the Dodgers to get the “x” next to their name in the standings for being mathematically eliminated and then when Gonzalez is asked about it, hopefully he blames God for the Dodgers’ failures. I’m sure you will appreciate him then too.

Even if the Dodgers’ problems are team-wide like you believe they are, I believe they stem from the “people” they brought in to play for them. Sometimes we all forget that baseball is more numbers and like a wise man once said, “The game has a heartbeat.” And the Dodgers’ heart could use a triple bypass followed by a strict diet.

The sad thing is Don Mattingly will end up taking the fall for this even though the ownership group and Colletti gave him the wrong pieces. How about the Dodgers fire Mattingly and Donnie Baseball comes back to the Bronx and your Dodgers get a new manager? I like that idea.

Michaelis: I’m sure your just fine without the trio of Beckett, Gonzalez and Crawford in the AL East. Remember you still have Brian Boyle, Mark Teixeira, and Boone Logan (LOL). I’m sure those three are providing you with plenty to talk about. Actually based on your Twitter account, I would say you’re faring just fine without the Dodgers trio.

It’s 2013. I don’t care what Adrian Gonzalez did or said in 2011. The Red Sox collapsed, the Yankees didn’t win the World Series and the Dodgers didn’t even make the playoffs, so what is notable about 2011? Time to move on. I’m talking about the 2013 Adrian Gonzalez. You want to rip him for complaining in 2011 then go ahead, but he’s producing and isn’t the problem.

You can’t buy chemistry. Just look at the team across the way from Chavez Ravine. The Los Angeles Angels (or really the Anaheim Angels) tried to do exactly what the Dodgers are and they are failing. It’s a team-wide problem, guys aren’t producing, and the bullpen … I don’t even have a word for it. The bullpen is a grade A disaster.

A wise fellow once said, “Pitching wins championships” and that’s one thing the Dodgers don’t have. Clayton Kershaw can’t pitch 162 games. If he could, the Dodgers would be undefeated. His supporting cast has been laughable and there isn’t much Adrian Gonzalez, Donnie Baseball, Matt Kemp or hitting coach Mark McGwire can do about that.

I would happily pay Josh Beckett to stay away. Ride the bench, eat all the KFC you want, hang 10 on your long board at Trestles Beach. What’s another $15.75 million? Like you said, Ned Colletti already threw away $47 million when he signed Jason Schmidt in 2007 and he only pitched 10 games for the Dodgers! Easily the best pick-up of 2007.

Since Schmidt didn’t work out and Ted Lilly and Chad Billingsley are both on the DL (such daggers) the Dodgers starting pitching has been a merry-go-round and really the only three consistent pitchers have been Kershaw, Zack Greinke and Hyun-Jin Ryu. The Dodgers starters look like this.

1. Clayton Kershaw (5-4, 1.84 ERA)

2. Zack Greinke (3-2, 4.22 ERA)

3. Hyun-Jin Ryu (6-2, 2.85 ERA)

4. Stephen Fife (1-2, 3.74 ERA)

5. Chris Capuano (1-4, 5.45 ERA)

6. Matt Magill (0-2, 6.51 ERA)

Ready for the bullpen breakdown? Pull up a chair because you might want to sit down for this one.

Kenley Jansen (2.57 ERA)

Paco Rodriguez (3.38 ERA)

Matt Guerrier (3.58 ERA)

Ronald Belisario (4.78 ERA)

Brandon League (5.54 ERA)

Our closer has a 5.54 ERA. A 5.54 ERA. Brandon League hit the jackpot because of Colletti’s stupidity and signed a three-year, $22.5 million deal last year. How does he still have a job? How do either of them still have a job?

Again, the issue isn’t the Boston trio who came to L.A., the issue is that the Dodgers go after players past their prime and expect them to produce the way they did in the past. (Think Nomar Garciaparra, Andruw Jones and Manny Ramirez.) The Dodgers only bright spots are Kershaw, Kemp (when healthy), Gonzalez and Yasiel Puig. If they signed up for a Wiffle ball tournament they would be untouchable. Unfortunately baseball requires nine players.

The Dodgers don’t need triple-bypass surgery, they need a detox. It’s funny hearing this from you, the guy who only likes pasta, pizza and chicken. Maybe you and the Dodgers can sign up for Equinox together? I’m sure they can find the funds somewhere.

Keefe: I’m not sure the Dodgers can afford a monthly membership at Equinox even after getting more than $6 billion in their TV deal. Where are they getting that money? Who is watching them? Do people in Los Angeles even like sports? And if they do, do they like watching a last-place team?

On your point about Kershaw pitching 162 games and being undefeated, well that’s a little farfetched. Kershaw is 5-4 in 15 starts and one of those wins came in a complete-game shutout on Opening Day when he won 1-0 on his own solo home run. So no the Dodgers wouldn’t be undefeated if Kershaw pitched all 162 games. But if he pitched for a team that could actually score runs, then yes that team would probably be undefeated or close to it since the Dodgers average 3.02 runs in games Kershaw starts. Where is the Dodgers’ savior Adrian Gonzalez when Kershaw starts? (I can’t wait for the Dodgers to make a run at the NL West and Gonzalez to show you why he’s an empty-calorie guy as he crumbles in September.)

As for the next two games at Yankee Stadium, Hyun-Jin Ryu scares me because the Yankees have never seen him before and the Yankees are 0-379 in my lifetime when facing a starter they have never seen before. But Hiroki Kuroda gets a chance to go against his former team and when you have a 2.78 ERA in the AL like he does, that usually will translate into good things against an offensively-challenged team like the Dodgers. I like the Yankees in the first game.

In the second game, the bad news is Phil Hughes, who I have zero faith in and who shouldn’t even be a starting pitcher, and who is in his final months being a Yankee and I can’t wait until he is a free agent, is pitching. The good news is he is going against Chris Capuano, proud owner of a 2-6 record and 5.45 ERA. This game could be an offensive gongshow for two teams who have trouble scoring even one run. If Hughes doesn’t lay an A.J. Burnett egg and can keep it close and the Yankees can get into that awesome bullpen you have then I like our chances.

So yes, I’m predicting a two-game sweep from the Yankees, not only because they need it after that horrific West Coast road trip, but like I already knew and you helped confirm: the Dodgers are a bad team.

Michaelis: Actually the Dodgers are first in attendance this season. We don’t have to deal with the wishy-washy suits that the Yankees have to deal with. People in L.A. will actually go to the game regardless of if we’re in first place or last place.

Kershaw going undefeated is farfetched? The Dodgers wouldn’t be undefeated? And here I thought baseball was an individual sport. Yes, the Dodgers need to score runs, they are 29th in runs scored, but again it’s the pitching. The Dodgers have scored 240 runs, but have allowed 289 runs for a -49 run differential. I’m no mathematician, but I’m pretty sure the equation is if you score more runs than you allow, you will win and if you allow less runs than you score, you will win! The Dodgers lineup isn’t producing, but you can’t really blame Gonzalez. No one’s calling him the Dodgers’ savior, but he isn’t the reason we are sitting in last place in the NL West. He is certainly a step up from James Loney.

You know it’s karma. I laughed at you when you said that the Yankees were good, but even you didn’t think they were going to do this well. You wanted them to be .500 when Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira returned, but they’re even better than that with Jeter and A-Rod not back yet and Teixeira returning to the DL. (I hope his wrist is OK.)

From the first chuckle I knew it would come back to bite me in the ass and it did. Or I could blame the Dodgers’ current woes on my lack of team spirit. I haven’t worn my Dodgers socks in a while…

This two-game short lived series should be good. The Dodgers have nothing to lose really, they are 7 1/2 games back and every Dodger fan knows they don’t turn it on until end of August or beginning of September. But the Yankees can’t afford a two-game sweep and possibly be five games back of … the Red Sox! Yikes.

Kuroda’s last five starts have all resulted in losses since apparently the Yankees can’t hit either.But the Dodgers got the luck of the draw in facing Hughes. I’m hoping he has another outing like the one against the Mariners back on May 15 (0.2 IP, 7 ER). JUST ONE TIME, PLEASE! Puig will also be a factor in the series and it will be my first time witnessing the Cuban sensation that Vin Scully loves to watch. Also the Yankees are batting someone named Thomas Neal in the 5-spot so that should be fun.

If Capuano is pitching the series will be split, no matter what the Dodgers do and if suddenly they realize they can swing the bat and hit the ball, Capuano will give up runs and lots of them.

I’m excited to watch my beloved Doyers in the bleachers. I hope Bald Vinny and his crew are nice to me. Donnie Baseball ‘s return to Yankee Stadium should be a great momentous event to help set the stage. Maybe this will be the turning point for the Dodgers? Steal two wins in the Bronx?

I should have made the bet that whoever wins this series gets a free months rent. Things are going to get heated, I can feel it. In the words of the great Vin Scully, “It’s time for Dodger baseball!”

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Blogs • Email Exchanges • Yankees

Feb 21, 2013

The State of the Yankees: Spring Training Edition

Opening Day is less than six weeks away and with spring training having started, Sweeny Murti made his first appearance of 2013 for an email exchange.

Opening Day is 39 days away. That’s right. Thirty-nine days! And it wouldn’t feel like baseball season is just around the corner without starting the season off the right way.

WFAN Yankees beat reporter Sweeny Murti (the Voice of Reason) joined me for the first time in 2013 for an email exchange to talk about the Yankees now that spring training has started.

Keefe: So we meet again, Sweeny. It’s been a while, but it’s that time of the year again when your phone makes a noise because you have a new email and then you check your email and see that it’s from me only to wonder why you ever gave me your email address to begin with. It’s good to have you back because if we’re talking it means that baseball is back and it’s almost really back.

The last time we talked Derek Jeter didn’t have a plate and screws in his ankle, A-Rod’s performance-enhancing drug use was a thing of the past, Russell Martin and Nick Swisher were still Yankees and I still hated Kevin Youkilis. A lot has changed since Phil Coke closed the book on the 2012 Yankees and judging by the offseason and the word “budget” I would completely understand if you changed your email address without telling me or blocked me altogether from contacting you.

Even though doom and gloom are on everyone’s minds with the 2013 Yankees, I’m actually optimistic about this team. The Yankees are coming off an ALCS appearance, yes it was one in which they were embarrassed, but they were still a 95-win, division champion team that reached the ALCS for the third time in four years. They aren’t the 93-loss Red Sox and they didn’t blow the whole thing up in search of a rebuilding year. I understand that they didn’t have a “sexy” offseason like the Blue Jays or Angels, but like you always say, “Teams like that make those moves to compete with the Yankees.”

So before we get into individual storylines, let’s start with the simple question of why is everyone treating the Yankees like they didn’t win 95 games last season?

Murti: I’m sorry, but I don’t recognize your name and email address. Who are you again?

Seriously, I recognize the name, but you can’t be the real Neil Keefe. You sound way too reasonable and levelheaded to be that Neil Keefe. Oh, well. Whoever you are, here’s my answer.

My guess is that getting swept out of the ALCS made the season feel like a miserable failure and that 95 wins happened almost by accident since they couldn’t possibly be that good. Besides, the Yankees are old now and Derek Jeter, Mariano Rivera and Andy Pettitte are all coming off injuries. Sure, the Yankees had to re-sign Rivera and Pettitte and Hiroki Kuroda and Ichiro Suzuki, but these guys were already here. Yankee fans don’t want their old toys rewrapped and put under the tree. They want all new toys!

I’m glad you realize, “Neil,” that winning the World Series was always very hard to do and is getting even harder now. And when you get to October, the gap between teams is very close and can make a series go either way. It’s hard to think an NFL team with 14 wins can lose a playoff game to a team with eight wins, but it’s entirely possible for a 100-win team to lose a playoff series to an 85-win team. We’ve seen baseball’s postseason turn into a tournament almost like NCAA’s March Madness. But in this Fall Frenzy, the Yankees are like Kentucky or Duke or North Carolina in that they are almost always a 1-seed, but rarely able to complete the journey to a championship.

What you or any Yankee fan should want is a chance and that’s what this organization always gives you: a chance. And for some reason, there are many fans who feel as if watching a team that doesn’t virtually guarantee a championship and make other teams want to quit before Opening Day is a waste of time. I’m glad you don’t fall into that category because that other Neil Keefe certainly is one of them. In fact, I’m almost certain that’s why I haven’t heard from him in months since he’s too paralyzed by grief from last October to even get off his couch.

Keefe: It’s me, Neil. It’s really me. I think the only reason why I’m so optimistic is because it’s Feb. 20, which means there’s less than six weeks until Opening Day against the Red Sox. Talk to me in the top of the first of that game when there are two on and two out and Joe Girardi is going to the mound to talk to CC Sabathia. Let’s just hope Sean Rodriguez isn’t somehow up and Carlos Pena is on deck…

The 2012 season ended when I watched Derek Jeter fall to the ground in Game 1 of the ALCS and not get up causing me to nearly throw up all over John Jastremski, who was next to me in the right field bleachers. I left the Stadium that night knowing that the series was over because 1.) You DON’T lose a game at HOME in YANKEE STADIUM in the PLAYOFFS that you trail by four runs and come back to tie before losing in extra innings. You just dont. And 2.) You’re not winning a series when you just lost your best offensive player and captain for the rest of the postseason.

All of these years the Yankees’ problem in postseason losses has been pitching (outside of Game 5 of the 2011 ALDS and all of the 2012 playoffs) and here the Yankees were getting gems from CC Sabathia, Andy Pettitte and Hiroki Kuroda over and over only to not be able to get men on base or even get the ball out of the infield. But enough about the 2012 Yankees. They failed. (See what you’ve made me do!) Let’s look at the 2013 Yankees and let’s start with the man with the new ankle.

This is the last year of Jeter’s deal before his $8 million player option for 2014 and everyone is saying that at age 39 (in June) and after coming back from ankle surgery, Jeter can’t possibly hit the way he did in 2012. Most of these people are the same people that attribute success and failure in baseball to “luck” and in that case, Derek Jeter has been lucky since 1996 and on top of that, he is the luckiest hitter to ever play for the Yankees since he is the only player in franchise history to reach 3,000 hits. Do you think he will come with me on my next trip to Las Vegas and just sit next to me at the Blackjack table since he apparently exudes an unprecedented amount of luck?

In 2013, I think Jeter will offensively be the same player he was last year. Sure, his range might be declining, but it has been for a while and he’s not about to move to the right any better than he did a year ago, especially with that ankle. But I think his hitting will still be there. At least I keep telling myself it will be the way I keep telling myself he will play forever.

Do you recognize this Neil Keefe yet?

Murti: Well you’re doing a pretty fair impression of Neil, whoever you are. You’ve obviously done your homework.

What Jeter did in 2012 is enough reason not to doubt his ability to hit in 2013, but the injury does add an interesting layer to the discussion. He’s overcoming a major injury, but the time between meaningful at-bats is the same as it is every offseason for Jeter (October to April). If you want to believe that he’s going to still be a good hitter, I won’t stop you.

Of course, we must look at the realization of Jeter’s 39th birthday approaching this June. But rather than predicting Jeter’s decline, watching him for all these years makes me realize it’s smarter to just wait for it to happen. It might be this year. It might be in three years. But Jeter wants you to think it’s right now, because he seems to enjoy saying, “I told ya so” almost as much as Michael Jordan, who I believe celebrated a birthday recently. I’m not sure, I think I saw something about that somewhere.

Before we can find out the answer it will be a daily exercise in spring training to gauge how well Jeter is running and moving. I might even suggest that he change his walk-up song to Bobby Brown’s “Every Little Step.” How do you feel about that?

Keefe: I always liked when he used “Nasty Girl” by B.I.G. or even when he started using Puff Daddy’s “Come With Me” (the remake of “Kashmir”) even if A-Rod used to use it. So I guess I’m OK with him switching to Bobby Brown.

As for A-Rod, is anyone surprised at this new report that he might have used performance-enhancing drugs again? I’m not sure how anyone could be surprised that a former user decided to use again with his career in serious decline to the point that he became a bench player in the postseason. My only problem with A-Rod using performance-enhancing drugs is that if he was using them during the postseason, he might want to try a different brand.

This is your 13th spring training with the Yankees and I can’t imagine that any spring was as chaotic as 2009 with the Yankees coming off their first postseasonless year since 1993 and new free agents CC Sabathia, Mark Teixeira and yes, that guy A.J. Burnett in pinstripes and the anticipation of opening a new Stadium and the Sports Illustrated report breaking A-Rod’s PED use and then A-Rod missing the beginning of the season due to hip surgery that forced Cody Ransom (just the name makes me think about drinking in the morning) into the starting lineup. I don’t think any spring could match up with that one during your time covering the team, but tell me if I’m wrong.

And when I think about everything that happened in February and March of 2009, months before the Yankees went on to win the World Series, it makes me think about how little of a deal all of this attention being paid to A-Rod’s second PED problem and the aging lineup and Mark Teixeira telling the Wall Street Journal that he’s overpaid and now Phil Hughes’ back problem in the first week of baseball. All of this seems like a walk in the park.

Sorry, I got off track there for a minute. I know A-Rod’s situation is much more complicated than anyone realizes and unless the Yankees hit a massive parlay, he will be collecting that $114 million from them. My question to you is: Over/under 0.5 games for A-Rod as a Yankee ever again?

Murti: Okay, now I recognize you, Neil. We really have to work on this A.J. Burnett fixation of yours. Although I would like to point out to you Game 2 of the 2009 World … oh, never mind.

Spring training highlights of the past 13 years? Oh there have been plenty: A-Rod ripping Jeter in Esquire in 2001; Ruben Rivera stealing Jeter’s glove in 2002; David Wells’ book fiasco in 2003; Kevin Brown being Kevin Brown, Randy Johnson’s love child, Carl Pavano’s bruised buttocks, Hideki Matsui’s wedding, Shelley Duncan fighting the Rays, Kei Igawa running like Forrest Gump, A-Rod and Jason Giambi and every PED story for the last 10 years and Joba Chamerlain and the trampoline. I won’t even pretend to rank these spring training stories in any order. Let’s just say they are all my very special children. “It Happens Every Spring,” as they say.

I’m going to take the over on your wager. As I explained here a few weeks ago, getting rid of A-Rod is wishful thinking. Will he be any good when he comes back? That’s a question none of us can answer. But I think we are pretty certain he’s never going to be a 40-home run threat again. Unless you’re talking about two or three years worth. Then maybe.

Keefe: Speaking of A.J. Burnett, Russell Martin used, “Wow” to talk about Burnett’s first bullpen session of the spring. Maybe Martin has short-term memory loss from when they were both Yankees in 2011 or maybe he forgot that Burnett was throwing to just him with no one in the box and no runners on base and no game to be won or lost and no wild pitches being counted. But hey, let’s give the Pirates their moment in February.

I’m going to miss Russell Martin. Sure, there were times when Chris Stewart or Steve Pearce gave me more confidence at the plate than Martin, but he came up with big, clutch hits and played great defense for the Yankees, and I think it was a mistake to let him leave.

The other reason I’m going to miss him is because right now the Yankees’ Opening Day catcher is either going to be Austin Romine and his 20 career plate appearances or Francisco Cervelli, who belongs anywhere other than a Major League roster.

Now I’m always the first person to say that anything the Yankees receive offensively from their catcher is a plus, and if people are going to blame the catcher for the team’s offensive problems (a lot of people did this with Martin) then they are identifying the real problem (the heart of the order). But how worried should I be about the catching situation?

Murti: I guarantee you’re going to be the one who complains when the combination of Stewart/Cervelli/Romine doesn’t get a hit in a big spot. This is where you truly become Neil Keefe again.

And I’m fairly certain Stewart will end up catching Opening Day with CC Sabathia on the mound, but that’s neither here nor there.

The Yankees don’t have a 120-game, every day type of catcher. Losing Martin hurts, but it won’t kill them. The cumulative effect of losing so many home runs might (A-Rod, Swisher, Martin, Ibanez, Chavez). It’s a pretty significant dropoff. But to your original point, the Yankees will have enough defefensive options behind the plate and will have to deal with the offensive shortcomings. It makes you realize what a luxury it was having Jorge Posada all those years. Even if he wasn’t a Gold Glove winner behind the plate, his offense was something you don’t normally see from that position.

A trickle-down effect of not having an offensive catcher, however, is the construction of your bench. Late in a game the Yankees could have two pinch-hit options if Nunez and, say Stewart are due up against a righty. If a righty started the game, chances are the Yankees starting lineup would already have all their lefty hitters in the game (Gardner, Granderson, Suzuki, Cano, Hafner). But they will likely not have more than one lefty bat on that bench (I’m assuming Dan Johnson if he makes the team). Otherwise you will have a bench that includes some combination of Nix and Nunez and Matt Diaz.

The last two years the Yankees could boast a bench that had over 600 career home runs between Eric Chavez and Andruw Jones. The bench won’t be quite so deep anymore, at least in terms of experience.

Keefe: Nothing says Opening Day in the Bronx like Chris Stewart being announced as the starting catcher! I guess things could be worse. Carl Pavano could be starting the Opening Day starter like he was in 2007.

For the first time in a long time and the first time in our now fourth season of these exchanges I’m not worried about the starting pitching. But if I’m not worried about something that’s never a good sign. Maybe it’s time to start worrying.

CC Sabathia, Andy Pettitte and Hiroki Kuroda are as good of 1-2-3 in the American League. Behind them there’s Phil Hughes, David Phelps and Michael Pineda and thankfully not Freddy Garcia. Hughes is already having back problems and Pineda is looking at a midseason return to the rotation. If Hughes’ bulging disc prevents him from being ready for the season and with the Yankees having just one off day in the first two weeks of the season and just two in all of April, who would be the strongest candidate for the opening spot?

Murti: Ivan Nova fell that far off your radar, huh?  Maybe you have forgotten all about him, and now you’re worried again.

Nova is a good bet to win a rotation spot, I think. And even though Phelps pitched well last year and could again this spring, I think his versatility is a key to the bullpen and makes him a good long man/spot start candidate. This is how I would draw it up, but so many things can happen when Opening Day is still more than a month away.

As for Pineda, there will be few daily updates on his progress since he isn’t on the same program yet as the rest of the pitchers. It’s still less than a year since his shoulder surgery. The important updates on Pineda will be in April and May with a hope that he is big league ready again in June or July. The Yankees don’t want to rush him back. They would prefer not to have any setbacks considering the investment they have made in him.

I’m sure, Neil, you will have plenty of time to moan and groan about Pineda. It just won’t be at the start of the season.

Keefe: I didn’t forget about Nova … I wanted to forget about him. There’s no doubt in my mind that Nova will be given every chance to succeed as a starter and (most likely) ultimately let me down.

I always thought Carl Pavano getting embarrassed by the Red Sox in a 17-1 loss at the Stadium on May 28, 2005 would be the worst starting pitching performance I ever attended, but then Ivan Nova had his night against the Orioles on July 31 last season when he blew a 5-0 first-inning lead by allowing seven runs in the second inning on six hits, including a grand slam, and a walk. He allowed nine earned runs (isn’t this when you and Bald Vinny do your “Nine!” thing?) in the game and followed it up by allowing seven earned runs in Detroit six days later. And then he followed that up with 10 strikeouts against the Blue Jays five days later. Ivan Nova has me so confused, but he finished the season with a 5.02 ERA and if he’s given a rotation spot, I’m scared he will get too many chances before he’s removed of it. (See: Freddy Garcia, 2012.)

This Saturday will be the first baseball of the year even if it’s fake and in less than six weeks we’ll be in the Bronx for real, actual, meaningful baseball. I would like to think that between now and Opening Day I won’t need to bother you to be reassured that this isn’t the year when the Yankees finally bottom out like the 2012 Red Sox, but I know there will be an issue to address between now and April 1 at 1:05 p.m. I will keep your email and phone number handy.

Murti: Jeter joked the other day that he didnt’ get to talk to Mariano very much this winter because Mariano changed his phone number. Not that I’m comparing either of us to either of them, but it does give me an idea.

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Blogs

Oct 15, 2012

ALCS Game 2 Thoughts: Second Verse, Same as the First

The Yankees were shutout in Game 2 of the ALCS and are now in an 0-2 hole with Justin Verlander waiting in Detroit in Game 3.

When your starting pitcher has a perfect game through five innings, you’re usually going to win the game. I say “usually” because if your offense is the Yankees offense in the postseason then those are the games you’re going to lose when your starting pitcher is throwing a perfect game through five innings.

There’s not much to say about Game 2. The Yankees can’t score. I said going into the postseason that the Yankees would get great pitching, but that it would be up to A-Rod, Mark Teixeira and Nick Swisher to produce. And the Yankees have gotten great starting pitching and have the best rotation in the postseason, but A-Rod, Teixeira and Swisher have been their usual October selves. When I made that statement before the postseason, I didn’t factor in how bad Robinson Cano and Curtis Granderson would be as well, and that’s why the Yankees are in the worst possible position heading into Game 3.

Hiroki Kuroda took the mound on short on rest for the first time in his career. He earned a no-decision against the Orioles four days before despite going 8 1/3 innings and allowing two earned runs on five hits, and on Sunday, Kuroda was even better. The Yankees’ best starter in the regular season went 7 2/3 innings against the Tigers, allowing three earned runs on five hits while striking out a career-high 11. Kuroda tried to put the team on his back, but no one got on.

The Yankees recoreded just three hits off of Anibal Sanchez in seven innings and one off of Phil Coke (who is in the Josh Beckett tier of hate for me) in two innings. Robinson Cano set the Yankees record for most consecutive at-bats without a hit in the postseason with an 0-for-4, A-Rod and Nick Swisher each struck out two more times and Curtis Granderson, to no surprise, struck out three times.

Saturday night had the same feeling of an elimination game once Derek Jeter went down for the season and Game 2 only helped to justify that feeling. Now the Yankees are sitting in an 0-2 hole with Justin Verlander waiting in Game 3. Let’s hope the NHL and NHLPA settle the lockout this week.

This train carries Phil Hughes in Game 3.

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Blogs

Oct 9, 2012

ALDS Game 2 Thoughts: It’s Always A-Rod’s Fault

The Yankees lost Game 2 of the ALDS to the Orioles and everyone wants to blame A-Rod.

On Tuesday morning on the subway I was standing with my back to the door and the guy sitting down in the second seat to the right of me was reading the New York Post on his iPad, so I decided to read it with him. I couldn’t actually read the articles from where I was, but I could see the headlines. I only needed to see one to stop reading.

Even when A-Rod hits liners it turns into outs for Yankees

If A-Rod went 3-for-4 in Game 2, but the one out he made was the strikeout to end the game against Jim Johnson, there would still be negative headlines about him. But when he goes 1-for-5 and is now 1-for-9 with with five strikeouts in two games, well he’s feeding the New York media exactly what they want.

A-Rod shouldn’t be hitting third. He shouldn’t have been hitting third for a long time now. But does that mean the Yankees’ Game 2 loss is his fault or that he should take responsibility for it because he’s the team’s highest-paid player? Of course not. But that’s how the world works when it comes to A-Rod. He has never been given any sort of pass since he arrived in 2004 when the Yankees lost the ALCS because of Joe Torre, Tom Gordon, Kevin Brown, Javier Vazquez and a short wall in right field at Fenway Park. It was his fault in 2005 when Randy Johnson destroyed Game 3 and Bubba Crosby and Gary Sheffifled crashed into each other in Game 5. It was all on him in 2006 when Mike Mussina couldn’t hold a lead and Randy Johnson and Jaret Wright couldn’t get an out. In 2007, it was all A-Rod and not Chien-Ming Wang giving up 12 earned runs on 14 hits in just 5 2/3 innings in two starts against the Indians. In 2009, the Yankees won because of A-Rod and really only because of him. It was on A-Rod when Phil Hughes pulled a Chien-Ming Wang in the 2010 ALCS against the Rangers and A.J. Burnett was given the chance to face Bengie Molina in Game 4. And last year, it was A-Rod’s fault that Freddy Garica started Game 2, CC Sabathia came up short in Game 3 and Ivan Nova looked like A.J. Burnett early in Game 5.

A-Rod has been bad in every postseason series for the Yankees except the 2004 ALDS against the Twins and all of the 2009 playoffs. And not just “bad,” but painfully bad. Here are his averages in playoff series that aren’t the 2004 ALDS or any of the 2009 playoffs.

2004 ALCS: .258
2005 ALDS: .133
2006 ALDS: .071
2007 ALDS: .267
2010 ALDS: .273
2010 ALCS: .190
2011 ALDS: .111

The last time A-Rod hit a postseason home run was in Game 3 of the 2009 World Series. Since then he has played in 18 playoff games and has had 65 at-bats. But even as bad as A-Rod has been in October, it’s disgusting the attention and criticism he endures because of his lack of production in October.

Guess who these postseason series averages belong to: .167, .222, .136, .308, .000 (0-for-14) and .167. Those would be the postseason series averages for Mark Teixeira prior to the start of the 2012 postseason. Guess how many postseason home runs Teixeira has for the Yankees in six series prior to 2012? Three. That’s three home runs in 29 games and 106 at-bats. Mark Teixeira has been a worse postseason player than Alex Rodriguez in his three postseasons with the team before this year. So why is it that Teixeira gets a free pass for failure and A-Rod doesn’t? It’s not like Mark Teixeira is making the league minimum at $22.5 million per year (just $6.5 million less than A-Rod will make this year) as the second highest-paid player on the team. The reason is because Mark Teixeira was part of a championship team in his first season in New York and A-Rod wasn’t. The ironic part is that Teixeira was part of a championship team because of A-Rod.

Teixeira never had to deal with questions about why he hit .167 against the Twins in the 2009 ALDS or .222 against the Angels in the 2009 ALCS or .136 against the Phillies in the 2009 World Series because while he was busy leaving everyone on base and being what A-Rod was from the 2004 ALCS through the 2007 ALDS, A-Rod was busy winning the World Series for the Yankees. So instead of hearing about what a terrible free-agent signing Teixeira was for Brian Cashman because he isn’t a clutch player, the lasting image of Mark Teixeira in 2009 is him hugging A-Rod and Derek Jeter in the center of the Yankee Stadium infield.

A-Rod is going to hear it from the Stadium on Wednesday night if he doesn’t produce in Game 3 and Mark Teixeira will hear it too, but he’ll hear it less. Because if the Yankees don’t win every postseason game and don’t win the last game of their postseason then it’s on A-Rod’s and no one else. Mark Teixeira will get a free pass. He always does.

***

As I wrote after Game 1 and will do after every Yankees postseason game, here are my thoughts from Game 2 of the ALDS.

– Sweeny Murti is calling it the “Ichiro Shuffle.” I’m going to call it magic. The slide and moves that Ichiro put on Matt Wieters in the play at the plate in the first inning were unbelievable. The sad thing is that Rob Thomson sent Ichiro on the play. Is there a worse third base coach in the league than Thomson? I’m not sure, but I don’t know a more known third base coach and that’s never a good thing. Most of the time Thomson holds guys up when he shouldn’t, but when he finally has a chance to, he sends Ichiro home and the ball got to Wieters before Ichiro was even at the “P” in “POSTSEASON” written on the third-base line. If Ichiro was tagged out there, that would have been the second out made at the plate in two games for the Yankees. No big deal!

– If A-Swisheira doesn’t produce then the Yankees will not advance to the ALCS. It’s that easy.

– Mark Teixeira might have been the slowest player in Major League Baseball before his calf injury. Now it’s not even a discussion. If I need Teixeira or Jorge Posada to score from second on a single, I’m taking Posada every single time and that’s scary. Teixeira was thrown out at second in Game 1 on a ball off the right-field wall and in Game 2 he couldn’t score from second on a single up the middle from Curtis Granderson. But that’s not even the worst part. The worst part is that after his leadoff single in the eighth inning, Joe Girardi chose not to pinch run for a guy who has proven he is a station-to-station runner. I guess the decision to leave Teixeira in the game isn’t worth complaining about since Brett Gardner is out for the season and not on the playoff roster and wasn’t available to pinch run for Teixeira. Wait? Brett Gardner is on the postseason roster and was available off the bench to pinch run in Game 2? I don’t believe you.

– I never talk negatively about Derek Jeter and I’m not going to here. All I’m going to say is that he looked drunk in the field and he probably shouldn’t have swung at the first pitch against Jim Johnson in the ninth inning, a night after Johnson was embarrassed for five runs in 1/3 of an inning. But again, I’m not going to talk negatively about Derek Jeter or criticize his play.

– Wei-Yin Chen was getting fatigued and his pitch count was rising like Jason Hammel’s and then in the fifth inning, Ichiro got out on the first pitch and then A-Rod got out on the first pitch and then Cano got out on the second pitch. Three outs on four pitches without a double play. That’s impressive.

– It’s hard to win in the postseason, period. It’s even harder to win when you have to get four outs a few innings a game. Luckily an error hasn’t cost the Yankees yet, but eventually one will if they continue to play this bad defensively.

– How much money did Mark Teixeira give Ernie Johnson, John Smoltz and Cal Ripken Jr. to say nothing negative about him? (Did you notice how I didn’t ask if you think Teixeira paid them because it’s not a question. He paid them.) I’m going with $145,061.73 each since that is what Teixeira makes per regular season game and since he didn’t play for the final month of the year because he wasn’t about to play at 80 percent (his words not mine) during a pennant race that went down to the last day of the season, he probably felt like he could afford to give up three games pay to make sure national TV viewers don’t think he sucks.

The problem with Teixeira supporters is that when he doesn’t hit they can always say, “Well, he makes up for it with his defense.” That’s nice and all, but Teixeira didn’t get $180 million because he plays great defense. Doug Mientkiewicz played well defensively and he made $1.5 million for the Yankees in 2007. If you’re going to misplay grounders like Teixeira did in Game 2 then that argument is destroyed.

– Here’s a picture of Robisnon Cano’s effort on Mark Reynolds’ RBI single that made it 3-1.

If you didn’t see the play, the next picture in the sequence isn’t Canoon the ground with the ball in the outfield after laying out for it. The next picture is Cano standing there with Nick Swisher fielding the ball. What does that mean? It means Cano didn’t dive to knock the ball down. If Cano knocks the ball down then Wieters doesn’t score. If Wieters doesn’t score then the Orioles’ lead is only 2-1. The Yankees scored again later in the game. That means the score would have been 2-2. I understand this is all part of Michael Kay’s “fallacy of the predetermined outcome,” but how is Cano not going to dive there and knock the ball down? Not giving maximum effort to save a run in the postseason doesn’t matter anyway.

– For the second straight game I had no idea what was a ball and what a strike was, and I wasn’t alone.

– Ernie Johnson dropped the old “(Player name) and (Player name) are a combined (number) years old” line when Andy Pettitte faced Jim Thome. Is there a worse and more meaningless saying in sports? No.

– In Game 1, Derek Jeter was asked to bunt. Derek Jeter is the all-time Yankees hits leader. Derek Jeter is the all-time postseason hits leader. Derek Jeter was Major League Baseball’s hits leader this year.

In Game 2, Ichiro was asked to bunt. Ichiro might be the best hitter in the history of baseball and he hit .322 as Yankee in 67 games. Right now Ichiro and Jeter are the only two Yankees you can fully trust to come through in a big spot and they have both been asked to give up at-bats.

Again, I know Joe Girardi will keep bunting in these spots even if he successful zero percent of the time, so I’m wasiting words even talking about it, but if I don’t get my frustration out here it will come out during or after games and lead to me getting evicted from my apartment. And because of me blaring The Wallflowers’ “One Headlight” a couple weekends ago late at night, it’s not out of the realm of possibility.

– I wish I were upset when Curtis Granderson strikes out in big spots, but I’m not. At this point I assume he’s going to strike out and if he makes contact I consider it a moral victory. That’s not good, is it?

– I’m saving everything that I have built up in my head for Nick Swisher for another time and another column.

This train carries Hiroki Kuroda in Game 3.

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Blogs • Email Exchanges • Yankees

Aug 29, 2012

A State of Worry for the Yankees

The Yankees have basically played .500 baseball in the second half and the constant worrying about their division lead led to an email exchange with Jake Strasser of Barstool Sports.

On Wednesday, July 18, the Yankees finished a sweep of the Blue Jays with a 6-0 win at the Stadium and they finished the day with a 10-game lead in the division. Today their lead is 3 1/2 games.

The Yankees have gone 22-21 since the All-Star break and 18-20 since they held that 10-game lead on July 18. The injuries are mounting and now the team will enter September without Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira in the lineup. I haven’t pulled the alarm yet on the 2012 Yankees and avoiding the one-game playoff, but I have shattered the glass and my hand is on the lever.

With constant worrying and scoreboard watching each day, I thought it would be a good idea to talk to someone who I know is going through the same thing. And that’s how this email exchange with Jake Strasser of Barstool Sports started.

Keefe: On Tuesday night, Steve Pearce hit fourth for the Yankees. Russell Martin hit fifth. If you didn’t watch the game, I could probably sell you on the idea that I hit sixth and the doorman in my apartment building hit seventh. That’s how bad things are right now for the Yankees due to injuries.

With A-Rod already out, Mark Teixeira went down on Monday night and Joe Girardi said he could be out “seven, eight or 15 days.” (The man who counted like that actually went to Northwestern University.) So yeah, if our starting pitching right now doesn’t do what Phil Hughes did on Tuesday night then it’s going to be really hard to win games. And if Rafael Soriano does what he did on Monday night it’s going to be even harder.

The reason the Yankees lost in five games to the Tigers last year was because of their hitting. Their pitching could have been better, but it was their hitting with runners in scoring position and the heart of the order that did them in. This year I’m scared that the same thing might happen. Actually I’m not scared … I’m petrified. And it’s not even the ALDS I’m scared of. It’s the one-game playoff. I have already been stocking up on bottled water, canned foods, flashlights and batteries in the event that the Yankees have to play in that one-game playoff.

It wasn’t too long ago that the Yankees had a comfortable 10-game lead in the division and I was laughing and watching games with a spring training mentality. Now with a month to go I feel like every game is Game 7 and I’m scoreboard watching Tampa Bay and Baltimore. Things have unraveled quickly. I don’t think I will truly be nervous until the lead gets to two games (if it ever gets there), but the current state of the Yankees is enough to cause for a test of the emergency broadcast system.

With a month to go, what is your take on the state of the Yankees and how worried are you of the possibility of a one-game playoff, if you’re worried at all?

Strasser: The Yankees are an enigma. I have never seen a club traverse the spectrum of success quite like this year’s team. There are points throughout the course of the season when they coast through series after series with what seems to be zero resistance. And then you have the stretches of poor play when the Yankee offense channels its inner Astros and the lineup looks anemic at the plate. The Yankees are a team built to crush mediocrity. Aside from the game’s top-shelf arms, along with any double-A pitcher lucky enough to make his debut in the Bronx, the Yankees are a near-sure bet to put up at least five or six runs on any given night. But what happens when they run into the buzz saw arms of the Verlanders and Weavers of the league? Well, we’ve all seen it a million times. How many 4-1 or 6-2 losses can we take?

As demonstrated the other night in Cleveland, the Yankees live and die with the home run. In a game where they let myriad scoring opportunities slip through their fingers against Indians pitcher, Corey Kluber, they ended up pulling out the win with a late two-run home run by Swisher. I’ve never been mad about a Yankee win, but I’d be lying if I said that one didn’t infuriate me. The ball that Swisher hit not only cleared the right-field wall, but the team from getting questioned about their inability to manufacture runs as well. The big blast consistently overshadows the offensive woes. This is great for the regular season, but aces on playoff teams don’t generally give up the long ball. The Yankees don’t move the runners, they don’t play small ball, and they don’t hit in the clutch. So where does that leave them? A couple games behind the best record in the AL. It’s both perplexing and frustrating how a team can look so good on paper, but instill a much lower level of confidence on the field.

So you ask me how nervous I am for a potential one-game playoff? Let’s put it this way- I’m letting my fingernails grow out until that day so I have plenty to pick for all nine innings. My cuticles will look like a teen slasher horror movie by the sixth. It all depends on the pitching match up, but anything can happen. And that’s what scares me. Given the roster (and the payroll), the Yankees should have the edge over any team, but as was stated in Moneyball, statistics go out the window when it comes to one game. For the Yankees to have any sort of success in this year’s playoff run, it will come from one or two guys getting hot at the right time circa 2009 with A Rod and Matsui. And if that doesn’t happen, well, let’s hope for a relevant Jets team, because it will be yet another early round exit for the pinstripes.

Keefe: You said it all depends on the pitching matchup, but we shouldn’t worry because a wise man once told me in a podcast that “Ivan Nova will become a big-game pitcher.” Actually that wasn’t a wise man … it was you.

OK, maybe that’s a low-blow, but I don’t think it is since you did disregard Hiroki Kuroda, who I talked up on that same podcast and now he’s become the Yankees’ best pitcher. Before we go any further, I think you owe No. 18 an apology.

(This is ne waiting for your apology…)

Let’s continue and let’s say the Yankees don’t completely fall apart between now and Game 162 and reach the ALDS and that Andy Pettitte returns and is healthy enough to pitch in the postseason. Who’s pitching Games 1, 2 and 3? Hopefully they don’t need a Game 4 starter, but eff it, let’s put a Game 4 starter in there too. And I know we have talked about it before, but I think it’s important for an update since it changes all the time.

I’m going with CC Sabathia, Andy Pettitte, Hiroki Kuroda and then … umm … hmm … uhh … I guess … Phil Hughes? I would love to say David Phelps there, but we both know that’s not going to happen, and I don’t want Freddy Garcia anywhere near a playoff game again let alone on the postseason roster.

Strasser: Yeah, so I put myself out there with a bold prediction. Strasser took a shot, and you know what, Strasser missed. But at least I’m in the game. You’re sitting over there on the sidelines observing and reporting while I’m risking my reputation on a daily basis. You’re the douche bag with the combover in Good Will Hunting and I’m Matt Damon. I may be serving your fries on the way to your ski trip, but at least I’m original. So enjoy your bland perspective of watching and relaying, while I take a leap of faith and throw my heart into something I believe. I’d rather falsely predict something with 100% conviction than sit in the shadows and play it safe any day. I dare to dream, Neil. I dare to dream.

The postseason rotation depends entirely on the situation. It’s CC first, and then either Kuroda or Pettitte. If CC loses game 1 for instance, assuming a healthy Pettitte, I want Andy on the mound. He’s a big-game pitcher and going down 0-2 is a death sentence. I do owe Kuroda an apology, and I have gained a lot of faith in him, but the playoffs are a different world.

It also depends on the breakdown of home and away. It’s no secret that Kuroda is a better pitcher at the Stadium. That plays into rotation decisions, as well. Ask me this question when the ALDS schedule is set, and I’ll have a more definitive answer for you. Until then, Nova4Life.

Keefe: Being called the scumbag in the Harvard bar in Good Will Hunting is as bad as it gets, so move over “me wanting Ubaldo Jimenez last year” there’s a new low point in my life. And I don’t think it was a bold prediction or anything that out there since Nova did win Game 1 of the ALDS last year before getting pulled early in Game 5. So let’s hold patting yourself on the back for a second there. It’s not like you told me that CC Sabathia would go on the DL twice and Andy Pettitte and Alex Rodriguez would also hit the DL and Mariano Rivera and Brett Gardner would be out for the year and the Yankees would still be in first in the division. That would be something to be proud of.

The Yankees are in a weird spot with the looming luxury tax penalties. It seemed like a foregone conclusion that they would sign Robinson Cano and Curtis Granderson to long-term deals and let Nick Swisher walk away. But a funny thing happened on a way to that plan. Actually, it’s not funny. What happened is Granderson has become Adam Dunn-like and Swisher has carried the team offensively through August. (Granderson is still a great defender while I don’t trust Swisher on routine plays.) Now there is talk that Swisher wants Jayson Werth’s $126 million, which is unlikely, but he will at least get a solid deal given his performance this year and the weak free agent market.

It’s no secret that I’m not that big of a Nick Swisher fan, if I’m one at all, which I don’t think I am. I know it will all come down to what he does in October, which is likely nothing, but it seems more and more likely that Swisher and his phony personality and his disgusting arguments on called third strikes might not only be back in the Bronx for 2013, but maybe a few years after. And it doesn’t help that the Red Sox’ impending interest in him will likely drive his price up and force the Yankees to make a play for him.

If Nicky Swish (sorry to go John Sterling on you) finally hits in the postseason and the Yankees make a long run, that’s one thing. But if he fails to hit elite pitching for the fourth straight postseason I don’t want to see No. 33 in right field in 2013 unless the new right fielder also wants to wear No. 33.

Strasser: I like the idea of Swisher. What does that mean? Well, this. Fake or not, he helps the clubhouse – one that up until his arrival in 2009, had been publicly documented as stiff and stale. His boisterous personality is good for the team and even better for the fans. That being said, he doesn’t really do it for me on the field. Outside of this year, which so coincidentally happens to be a contract year, he hasn’t been anything special in my opinion. He targets the short porch far too frequently, often times resulting in a pop out to short when a ground ball to second would have moved the runner over.

If the Yankees commit the amount of money Swisher will want, and the basic fundamentals of supply and demand will allow, it will result in an overpaid outfielder clogging a spot that could be used for future acquisitions. I love his on-base percentage, I love his occasional power, but I don’t love his price tag. Let him walk.

Keefe: There’s going to come a time in October when Joe Girardi decides, “Hey, these people paid to come see me manage and insert myself into this game and not to see the players on the field” and he will likely turn to Clay Rapada or Cody Eppley to get a big out. Let’s just hope they get that big out.

The bullpen pecking order is all out of whack right now aside from Rafael Soriano and David Robertson. I think Boone Logan is probably viewed as the third-best reliever (that feels weird even thinking about let alone typing) and then it’s a mess between Cody Eppley, Clay Rapada and whoever that guy wearing No. 62 and pretending to be Joba Chamberlain is. I really only trust David Robertson out there even though Soriano has been great, and I don’t want the other three putting their hands on the game. Actually there might be one guy I don’t mind.

For some reason and I can’t explain this, I still have this thing about Joba in that I trust him. Or I want to trust him. When I see him out there I have flashbacks of the summer of 2007 and unhittable fastballs and devastating sliders. I see fist pumps and scoreless innings. In reality, he is basically Chad Qualls right now (actually he’s statistically worse). This pains me and I don’t want it to be like this, but the guy is also coming back from elbow surgery, having his appendix removed and a brutal ankle injury. I think he will find it, I just don’t know when.

Strasser: I’m pretty much in agreement with you on the bullpen issue. Robertson I trust, and Soriano I’m warming up to. Joba will hopefully come around because like you said, I want to trust him. I want to remember being at the first game he ever pitched in at the stadium (Section 434B … I splurged) and seeing the Bronx sky erupt with amazement at the spectacle we had all just witnessed. But is that guy still there, or are we just reaching for something that doesn’t exist like an image popping off the screen in a 3D movie? You know those a-holes swiping at the air in front of them … are we those a-holes, Neil?

You’re leaving out one incredibly important detail as far as playoff bullpen pitching goes. One man, three syllables: David Phelps. I loved this guy in the bullpen earlier in the season, and I like what I’m seeing from him as a starter. Throwing him back in the bullpen for a late September push and on into October could be that bridge the Yankees need to get to Robertson and Soriano.

Keefe: I forgot about your man crush on David Phelps and I hate to break it to you, but I think it’s a love triangle. That’s right, I’m joining this party, so I hope there’s room for three. I have loved everything Phelps has done for this team, and if he isn’t given a postseason start (which he very well could if he continues to impress and dominate) then he will be a huge addition to the bullpen.

You have told me that Raul Ibanez is your sleeper pick to be huge for the Yankees in the postseason, and I’m onboard with that decision. Ibanez has that “thing” about him that exudes confidence especially when the at-bats are the biggest the setting is most important. Granted, we could both be way off and he could have a Swisher-like 2-for-15 ALDS and the Yankees could be home in five games, but let’s just hope that’s not the case.

The other guy I think is going to be huge in October is Ichiro because of who he is and what he wanted out of going to New York to win and getting out of Seattle, the only place he ever knew in the majors. Ichiro hasn’t played in the postseason since Game 5 of the 2001 ALCS on the other side of the River Ave. Now he has a chance to chase that elusive championship, pick up the one thing missing in a Hall of Fame career that boasts a Rookie of the Year, MVP, batting titles, single-season hits records, Gold Gloves and All-Star Games, and a chance to earn a multiyear deal at the end of the season.

Why do you think Ibanez will be big in the postseason and what are you thoughts on Ichiro returning to October?

Strasser: There’s something about Raul Ibanez. He’s got that look. It’s a combination of focus, clutch, and ugly. The first two are going to be huge in October. Well, huge in my mind at least. In my mind, he has already hit two of those majestic moonshots to right in the first game of the ALDS. Okay, that may be a bit hopeful, but I really do get that vibe from him. That oddly unexplainable Jeterian vibe. But hey, I could be wrong. It’s happened before … cough … Nova … cough.

As far as Ichiro goes, I see him doing a lot of the little things for us in the playoffs. I’m not gonna sit here as a delusional Yankee homer and tell you that he’s going to rediscover his MVP form and hit .450 in the ALDS, but I do think he can provide some important benefits for the team. His baseball instincts are great, and sometimes a playoff win and the subsequent advancement to the next series can come down to one play. Whether it’s an astounding defensive play, some 2009 WS Damon-esque base running, or some other sort of contribution, I could see Ichiro having one or two “Yankee moments” in October.

My final prediction for the playoffs revolves around one of the most inconsistent cold weather bats in the league. No. 24 in your program and probably right around that number in our hearts, Robinson Cano has the potential to carry the Yankees to a ring. He’s just nonchalant enough to sleepwalk through a postseason line of .390 with eight home runs and 21 RBIs.

Keefe: Everyone keeps asking me if the Yankees can win the World Series, and I keep telling these people that I think they can. Right now there’s isn’t one team that really stands out in the AL, but if Pettitte returns healthy then a rotation of CC Sabathia, Andy Pettitte and Hiroki Kuroda is as good as any 1-2-3 punch this postseason.

But to win the World Series it’s going to take winning the ALDS first (and hopefully not the one-game playoff first). I think the Yankees’ best chance of advancing would be if the Orioles make the one-game playoff and win it. The Yankees have loved playing in Camden Yards since it opened and no matter the year or roster turnover, the Yankees continue to win there, and with the first games of the division series on the road, that’s a big deal. I don’t want to see the Rays since the Yankees can’t win at the Trop anymore, or the Tigers since they seem to have our number or the White Sox since the Yankees had enough trouble winning a game there last week, forget October. Even the A’s scare me with their starting pitching and the idea of going 3,000 miles for the first two games of the ALDS isn’t exactly enticing. Give me Baltimore!

Strasser: The best option for the Yankees to play in the ALDS is the not-Angels. I think the Yankees can really expose some of the weaknesses of the not-Angels and capitalize on their shortcomings. Seriously though, the one team I’m terrified of is the Angels. I have no idea why they aren’t running away with the West, but if they get into the playoffs, look out. Mike Trout is just young and naive enough to not even realize that he’s having this historic season that could easily carry into October. They are the one team in the AL I most certainly don’t want to face.

To be honest, there isn’t one team that I would sign up to play right now. If anything, it would be the Rangers and their mediocre pitching staff, but we all know what can happen when Josh Hamilton or Nelson Cruz gets hot. Still, if I had to choose, I’ll take a matchup with the Rangers and their antler nonsense.

As much as I bash the Yankees’ deficiencies, I think they will hang on to win the division. Pettitte and A-Rod are coming back, CC looks sharp after his 12th DL stint of the year and Kuroda continues to mock me. I don’t think Tampa has the offense and I’m still not sold on Baltimore, despite their success this season. I also hate Buck Showalter and refuse to give him any credit, but the O’s are a good team. Another scary group of inexperienced guys playing above their heads. Is “above their heads” an expression? If not, it is now.

Keefe: You want to play the Rangers? In real life? I don’t think I can even given you a chance to respond to this after that.

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