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Tag: David Phelps

Blogs • Yankees

Aug 16, 2013

A Matter of Trust with the Yankees Rotation

It’s been weird a season for the Yankees and it’s been especially weird for the rotation, which has been shuffled when it comes to who you can and can’t trust.

It’s been a weird year. Kevin Youkilis became a Yankee; CC Sabathia got skinny; Francisco Cervelli was relied on at one point and then missed and then suspended; Derek Jeter played in his first game of the season on July 11 and then went on the disabled list twice in three weeks; the Mariners cut Shawn Kelley and he became the Yankees’ third best reliever; the Yankees traded for Vernon Wells; Lyle Overbay went from unwanted to having a starting job; Ichiro was used as the cleanup hitter; A-Rod underwent a second hip surgery in four years, appealed a 211-game suspension and returned to the lineup; Eduardo Nunez learned how to play defense; and Alfonso Soriano returned to the Yankees for the first time in nearly a decade.

But what might be weirder than any of those things is that the Yankees rotation has undergone some changes when it comes to who you can and can’t trust. Every five days when Hiroki Kuroda pitches you know the Yankees have a chance to win, but every five days when Phil Hughes pitches you hope you have plans other than to watch the Yankees.

With the Yankees needing to win just about every game from now until Game 162, the rotation is going to be trusted to give the team a chance to win every single day and not take the team out of the game before YES gives you the lineups and defensive alignments.

So here’s the current pecking order of the rotation based on level of trust and performance.

1. Number 18, Hiroki Kuroda, Number 18
It was a long, long time ago that I gave Kuroda the nickname of “Coin Flip” for never knowing what you would get from him from start to start. But that was back at the beginning of the 2012 season and the name was justified.

After losing to the Royals on May 21, 2012, Kuroda was 3-6 with a 4.56 ERA and 1.481 WHIP in his first nine starts with the Yankees. But since then, Kuroda has made 48 regular season starts and he’s 24-12 and the Yankees are 30-18 in those starts. Here’s his line since losing that game to the Royals: 321 IP, 275 H, 97 R, 94 ER, 60 BB, 243 K, 27 HR, 2.64 ERA 1.044 WHIP.

This season alone, Kuroda is 11-7 with a 2.33 ERA, but has earned a no-decision in three starts where he pitched seven shutout innings along with no-decisions in three starts where he went at least 6 2/3 innings and allowed two earned runs or less. (But according to Jim Leyland he’s not an All-Star because of his wins total. Good thinking, Jim!)

Kuroda’s not an “ace” that way Sabathia is. He’s a real ace.

2. Number 47, Ivan Nova, Number 47
Pitcher A: 4 GS, 16.2 IP, 23 H, 12 R, 12 ER, 8 BB, 18 K, 1 HR, 6.61 ERA, 1.898 WHIP

Pitcher B: 8 GS, 59.0 IP, 50 H, 14 R, 14 ER, 15 BB, 57 K, 2 HR, 2.14 ERA, 1.102 WHIP

Pitcher A is Ivan Nova in April. Pitcher B is Ivan Nova in starts since returning from Triple-A on June 23.

I’m not sure what Nova did when he got sent down to Triple-A, but it worked and he’s back to the way he was in 2011 and not the way he was in 2012 or the beginning of 2013.

3. Number 46, Andy Pettitte, Number 46
His name and number still make me think that he’s the guy he was every other year of his career except for 2008, but he isn’t. For the first time, Pettitte has shown his age and is pitching like a guy who should be home with his family rather than the guy who debates whether he should be home with his family every offseason.

It would make a lot of sense if Pettitte is hurt or playing through injury because he’s looking at finishing under .500 for the first time in his career and he currently has the highest ERA (4.62) of any of his 18 seasons. He hasn’t won a game since July 11 and after two strong starts against the Rangers (6 IP, 8 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 1 BB, 2 K) and Dodgers (7 IP, 8 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 0 BB, 3 K), Pettitte was embarrassed by the White Sox (2.2 IP, 11 H, 7 R, 7 ER, 1 BB, 4 K) and needed 101 pitches to get 13 outs against the Tigers (4.1 IP, 8 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 3 BB, 3 K).

If Pettitte were a fifth starter (which he probably should be this juncture of his career) and the Yankees had a strong hold on a playoff spot, it would be one thing, but the Yankees can’t afford to have Pettitte show his age over the last six weeks of the season because of the next guy, who has forgotten how to pitch …

4. Number 52, CC Sabathia, Number 52
Once upon a time CC was a real ace. Now he’s an “ace” the way A-Rod is a “superstar.” Sabathia won against the Angels on Tuesday for his first win since July 3 (despite doing everything he could to try and lose), evened his record up at 10-10 and even lowered his ERA from 4.72 to 4.66! $676,470.59 per start … well worth it!

At first we were made to believe that Sabathia’s diminished velocity was the reason for his struggles, but then he started throwing hard. Then we were told that his diminished weight was to blame, but that only contradicted the theories that his weight would prevent him from staying strong and pitching for a long time. Now we’re told that all of the mileage on his arm over the years, especially in recent years, is to blame for the worst season of his 13-year career. But I’m not sure any combination of velocity, weight loss and mileage is a reason for him walking six Angels from their JV team in six innings in his last start.

Sabathia is a 45-14 with a 3.31 ERA in 71 career starts in August and 31-17 with a 2.86 ERA in 64 career starts September. If he’s anything short of the guy he has been in those months for the rest of this August and this September, it won’t matter what anyone else does because the Yankees won’t make the playoffs.

5. Number 65, Phil Hughes, Number 65
Hughes has done nothing and I mean nothing to continue to deserve a rotation spot with the Yankees except have excellent luck on his side. With Michael Pineda, David Phelps and Vidal Nuno all injured, Hughes “has” to start. (I gave “has” quotations because he doesn’t “have” to start, but that’s the way Brian Ashcan and Joe Girardi rationalize things. Adam Warren could easily start in place of him.) So every five days the Yankees start Hughes no matter how awful he is or how many games he loses and he has already lost 12 games this year on an over-.500 team.

Hughes has been very bad for a very long time at this point. After Hughes’ start against the Royals on July 8, I wrote “What Is Phil Hughes? Part II” thinking that it might be one of the last starts Hughes would ever make as a Yankee with the trade deadline looming. Hughes lasted four innings against the Royals thanks to the rain as good luck and good fortune once again let Hughes stay in the rotation for another turn. But since that rain-shortened start, Hughes has started five games with this glorious line: 24 IP, 31 H, 21 R, 18 ER, 9 BB, 22 K, 7 HR, 6.75 ERA, 1.667 WHIP, including his loss on a getaway day to the Angels, a team that just wishes the season would end, on Thursday.

I’m not sure why any team would have wanted Hughes at the trade deadline like it was reported and speculated and I’m not sure why the Yankees wouldn’t have gladly given him up for anything. I mean anything. I’m talking a booklet of Frosty coupons to Wendy’s or a MetroCard with a balance of $1.80 or a scratched copy of Nick and Norah’s Infinite Playlist or even a promise that Travis Ishikawa would have to start every game at first base for the Yankees for the rest of the season. Any other team in the league could give the Yankees who they believe to be their worst starting pitcher and I would gladly give them Hughes’ starts for the rest of the year. Just get Phil Hughes out of the rotation.

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Blogs • Email Exchanges • Yankees

Feb 21, 2013

The State of the Yankees: Spring Training Edition

Opening Day is less than six weeks away and with spring training having started, Sweeny Murti made his first appearance of 2013 for an email exchange.

Opening Day is 39 days away. That’s right. Thirty-nine days! And it wouldn’t feel like baseball season is just around the corner without starting the season off the right way.

WFAN Yankees beat reporter Sweeny Murti (the Voice of Reason) joined me for the first time in 2013 for an email exchange to talk about the Yankees now that spring training has started.

Keefe: So we meet again, Sweeny. It’s been a while, but it’s that time of the year again when your phone makes a noise because you have a new email and then you check your email and see that it’s from me only to wonder why you ever gave me your email address to begin with. It’s good to have you back because if we’re talking it means that baseball is back and it’s almost really back.

The last time we talked Derek Jeter didn’t have a plate and screws in his ankle, A-Rod’s performance-enhancing drug use was a thing of the past, Russell Martin and Nick Swisher were still Yankees and I still hated Kevin Youkilis. A lot has changed since Phil Coke closed the book on the 2012 Yankees and judging by the offseason and the word “budget” I would completely understand if you changed your email address without telling me or blocked me altogether from contacting you.

Even though doom and gloom are on everyone’s minds with the 2013 Yankees, I’m actually optimistic about this team. The Yankees are coming off an ALCS appearance, yes it was one in which they were embarrassed, but they were still a 95-win, division champion team that reached the ALCS for the third time in four years. They aren’t the 93-loss Red Sox and they didn’t blow the whole thing up in search of a rebuilding year. I understand that they didn’t have a “sexy” offseason like the Blue Jays or Angels, but like you always say, “Teams like that make those moves to compete with the Yankees.”

So before we get into individual storylines, let’s start with the simple question of why is everyone treating the Yankees like they didn’t win 95 games last season?

Murti: I’m sorry, but I don’t recognize your name and email address. Who are you again?

Seriously, I recognize the name, but you can’t be the real Neil Keefe. You sound way too reasonable and levelheaded to be that Neil Keefe. Oh, well. Whoever you are, here’s my answer.

My guess is that getting swept out of the ALCS made the season feel like a miserable failure and that 95 wins happened almost by accident since they couldn’t possibly be that good. Besides, the Yankees are old now and Derek Jeter, Mariano Rivera and Andy Pettitte are all coming off injuries. Sure, the Yankees had to re-sign Rivera and Pettitte and Hiroki Kuroda and Ichiro Suzuki, but these guys were already here. Yankee fans don’t want their old toys rewrapped and put under the tree. They want all new toys!

I’m glad you realize, “Neil,” that winning the World Series was always very hard to do and is getting even harder now. And when you get to October, the gap between teams is very close and can make a series go either way. It’s hard to think an NFL team with 14 wins can lose a playoff game to a team with eight wins, but it’s entirely possible for a 100-win team to lose a playoff series to an 85-win team. We’ve seen baseball’s postseason turn into a tournament almost like NCAA’s March Madness. But in this Fall Frenzy, the Yankees are like Kentucky or Duke or North Carolina in that they are almost always a 1-seed, but rarely able to complete the journey to a championship.

What you or any Yankee fan should want is a chance and that’s what this organization always gives you: a chance. And for some reason, there are many fans who feel as if watching a team that doesn’t virtually guarantee a championship and make other teams want to quit before Opening Day is a waste of time. I’m glad you don’t fall into that category because that other Neil Keefe certainly is one of them. In fact, I’m almost certain that’s why I haven’t heard from him in months since he’s too paralyzed by grief from last October to even get off his couch.

Keefe: It’s me, Neil. It’s really me. I think the only reason why I’m so optimistic is because it’s Feb. 20, which means there’s less than six weeks until Opening Day against the Red Sox. Talk to me in the top of the first of that game when there are two on and two out and Joe Girardi is going to the mound to talk to CC Sabathia. Let’s just hope Sean Rodriguez isn’t somehow up and Carlos Pena is on deck…

The 2012 season ended when I watched Derek Jeter fall to the ground in Game 1 of the ALCS and not get up causing me to nearly throw up all over John Jastremski, who was next to me in the right field bleachers. I left the Stadium that night knowing that the series was over because 1.) You DON’T lose a game at HOME in YANKEE STADIUM in the PLAYOFFS that you trail by four runs and come back to tie before losing in extra innings. You just dont. And 2.) You’re not winning a series when you just lost your best offensive player and captain for the rest of the postseason.

All of these years the Yankees’ problem in postseason losses has been pitching (outside of Game 5 of the 2011 ALDS and all of the 2012 playoffs) and here the Yankees were getting gems from CC Sabathia, Andy Pettitte and Hiroki Kuroda over and over only to not be able to get men on base or even get the ball out of the infield. But enough about the 2012 Yankees. They failed. (See what you’ve made me do!) Let’s look at the 2013 Yankees and let’s start with the man with the new ankle.

This is the last year of Jeter’s deal before his $8 million player option for 2014 and everyone is saying that at age 39 (in June) and after coming back from ankle surgery, Jeter can’t possibly hit the way he did in 2012. Most of these people are the same people that attribute success and failure in baseball to “luck” and in that case, Derek Jeter has been lucky since 1996 and on top of that, he is the luckiest hitter to ever play for the Yankees since he is the only player in franchise history to reach 3,000 hits. Do you think he will come with me on my next trip to Las Vegas and just sit next to me at the Blackjack table since he apparently exudes an unprecedented amount of luck?

In 2013, I think Jeter will offensively be the same player he was last year. Sure, his range might be declining, but it has been for a while and he’s not about to move to the right any better than he did a year ago, especially with that ankle. But I think his hitting will still be there. At least I keep telling myself it will be the way I keep telling myself he will play forever.

Do you recognize this Neil Keefe yet?

Murti: Well you’re doing a pretty fair impression of Neil, whoever you are. You’ve obviously done your homework.

What Jeter did in 2012 is enough reason not to doubt his ability to hit in 2013, but the injury does add an interesting layer to the discussion. He’s overcoming a major injury, but the time between meaningful at-bats is the same as it is every offseason for Jeter (October to April). If you want to believe that he’s going to still be a good hitter, I won’t stop you.

Of course, we must look at the realization of Jeter’s 39th birthday approaching this June. But rather than predicting Jeter’s decline, watching him for all these years makes me realize it’s smarter to just wait for it to happen. It might be this year. It might be in three years. But Jeter wants you to think it’s right now, because he seems to enjoy saying, “I told ya so” almost as much as Michael Jordan, who I believe celebrated a birthday recently. I’m not sure, I think I saw something about that somewhere.

Before we can find out the answer it will be a daily exercise in spring training to gauge how well Jeter is running and moving. I might even suggest that he change his walk-up song to Bobby Brown’s “Every Little Step.” How do you feel about that?

Keefe: I always liked when he used “Nasty Girl” by B.I.G. or even when he started using Puff Daddy’s “Come With Me” (the remake of “Kashmir”) even if A-Rod used to use it. So I guess I’m OK with him switching to Bobby Brown.

As for A-Rod, is anyone surprised at this new report that he might have used performance-enhancing drugs again? I’m not sure how anyone could be surprised that a former user decided to use again with his career in serious decline to the point that he became a bench player in the postseason. My only problem with A-Rod using performance-enhancing drugs is that if he was using them during the postseason, he might want to try a different brand.

This is your 13th spring training with the Yankees and I can’t imagine that any spring was as chaotic as 2009 with the Yankees coming off their first postseasonless year since 1993 and new free agents CC Sabathia, Mark Teixeira and yes, that guy A.J. Burnett in pinstripes and the anticipation of opening a new Stadium and the Sports Illustrated report breaking A-Rod’s PED use and then A-Rod missing the beginning of the season due to hip surgery that forced Cody Ransom (just the name makes me think about drinking in the morning) into the starting lineup. I don’t think any spring could match up with that one during your time covering the team, but tell me if I’m wrong.

And when I think about everything that happened in February and March of 2009, months before the Yankees went on to win the World Series, it makes me think about how little of a deal all of this attention being paid to A-Rod’s second PED problem and the aging lineup and Mark Teixeira telling the Wall Street Journal that he’s overpaid and now Phil Hughes’ back problem in the first week of baseball. All of this seems like a walk in the park.

Sorry, I got off track there for a minute. I know A-Rod’s situation is much more complicated than anyone realizes and unless the Yankees hit a massive parlay, he will be collecting that $114 million from them. My question to you is: Over/under 0.5 games for A-Rod as a Yankee ever again?

Murti: Okay, now I recognize you, Neil. We really have to work on this A.J. Burnett fixation of yours. Although I would like to point out to you Game 2 of the 2009 World … oh, never mind.

Spring training highlights of the past 13 years? Oh there have been plenty: A-Rod ripping Jeter in Esquire in 2001; Ruben Rivera stealing Jeter’s glove in 2002; David Wells’ book fiasco in 2003; Kevin Brown being Kevin Brown, Randy Johnson’s love child, Carl Pavano’s bruised buttocks, Hideki Matsui’s wedding, Shelley Duncan fighting the Rays, Kei Igawa running like Forrest Gump, A-Rod and Jason Giambi and every PED story for the last 10 years and Joba Chamerlain and the trampoline. I won’t even pretend to rank these spring training stories in any order. Let’s just say they are all my very special children. “It Happens Every Spring,” as they say.

I’m going to take the over on your wager. As I explained here a few weeks ago, getting rid of A-Rod is wishful thinking. Will he be any good when he comes back? That’s a question none of us can answer. But I think we are pretty certain he’s never going to be a 40-home run threat again. Unless you’re talking about two or three years worth. Then maybe.

Keefe: Speaking of A.J. Burnett, Russell Martin used, “Wow” to talk about Burnett’s first bullpen session of the spring. Maybe Martin has short-term memory loss from when they were both Yankees in 2011 or maybe he forgot that Burnett was throwing to just him with no one in the box and no runners on base and no game to be won or lost and no wild pitches being counted. But hey, let’s give the Pirates their moment in February.

I’m going to miss Russell Martin. Sure, there were times when Chris Stewart or Steve Pearce gave me more confidence at the plate than Martin, but he came up with big, clutch hits and played great defense for the Yankees, and I think it was a mistake to let him leave.

The other reason I’m going to miss him is because right now the Yankees’ Opening Day catcher is either going to be Austin Romine and his 20 career plate appearances or Francisco Cervelli, who belongs anywhere other than a Major League roster.

Now I’m always the first person to say that anything the Yankees receive offensively from their catcher is a plus, and if people are going to blame the catcher for the team’s offensive problems (a lot of people did this with Martin) then they are identifying the real problem (the heart of the order). But how worried should I be about the catching situation?

Murti: I guarantee you’re going to be the one who complains when the combination of Stewart/Cervelli/Romine doesn’t get a hit in a big spot. This is where you truly become Neil Keefe again.

And I’m fairly certain Stewart will end up catching Opening Day with CC Sabathia on the mound, but that’s neither here nor there.

The Yankees don’t have a 120-game, every day type of catcher. Losing Martin hurts, but it won’t kill them. The cumulative effect of losing so many home runs might (A-Rod, Swisher, Martin, Ibanez, Chavez). It’s a pretty significant dropoff. But to your original point, the Yankees will have enough defefensive options behind the plate and will have to deal with the offensive shortcomings. It makes you realize what a luxury it was having Jorge Posada all those years. Even if he wasn’t a Gold Glove winner behind the plate, his offense was something you don’t normally see from that position.

A trickle-down effect of not having an offensive catcher, however, is the construction of your bench. Late in a game the Yankees could have two pinch-hit options if Nunez and, say Stewart are due up against a righty. If a righty started the game, chances are the Yankees starting lineup would already have all their lefty hitters in the game (Gardner, Granderson, Suzuki, Cano, Hafner). But they will likely not have more than one lefty bat on that bench (I’m assuming Dan Johnson if he makes the team). Otherwise you will have a bench that includes some combination of Nix and Nunez and Matt Diaz.

The last two years the Yankees could boast a bench that had over 600 career home runs between Eric Chavez and Andruw Jones. The bench won’t be quite so deep anymore, at least in terms of experience.

Keefe: Nothing says Opening Day in the Bronx like Chris Stewart being announced as the starting catcher! I guess things could be worse. Carl Pavano could be starting the Opening Day starter like he was in 2007.

For the first time in a long time and the first time in our now fourth season of these exchanges I’m not worried about the starting pitching. But if I’m not worried about something that’s never a good sign. Maybe it’s time to start worrying.

CC Sabathia, Andy Pettitte and Hiroki Kuroda are as good of 1-2-3 in the American League. Behind them there’s Phil Hughes, David Phelps and Michael Pineda and thankfully not Freddy Garcia. Hughes is already having back problems and Pineda is looking at a midseason return to the rotation. If Hughes’ bulging disc prevents him from being ready for the season and with the Yankees having just one off day in the first two weeks of the season and just two in all of April, who would be the strongest candidate for the opening spot?

Murti: Ivan Nova fell that far off your radar, huh?  Maybe you have forgotten all about him, and now you’re worried again.

Nova is a good bet to win a rotation spot, I think. And even though Phelps pitched well last year and could again this spring, I think his versatility is a key to the bullpen and makes him a good long man/spot start candidate. This is how I would draw it up, but so many things can happen when Opening Day is still more than a month away.

As for Pineda, there will be few daily updates on his progress since he isn’t on the same program yet as the rest of the pitchers. It’s still less than a year since his shoulder surgery. The important updates on Pineda will be in April and May with a hope that he is big league ready again in June or July. The Yankees don’t want to rush him back. They would prefer not to have any setbacks considering the investment they have made in him.

I’m sure, Neil, you will have plenty of time to moan and groan about Pineda. It just won’t be at the start of the season.

Keefe: I didn’t forget about Nova … I wanted to forget about him. There’s no doubt in my mind that Nova will be given every chance to succeed as a starter and (most likely) ultimately let me down.

I always thought Carl Pavano getting embarrassed by the Red Sox in a 17-1 loss at the Stadium on May 28, 2005 would be the worst starting pitching performance I ever attended, but then Ivan Nova had his night against the Orioles on July 31 last season when he blew a 5-0 first-inning lead by allowing seven runs in the second inning on six hits, including a grand slam, and a walk. He allowed nine earned runs (isn’t this when you and Bald Vinny do your “Nine!” thing?) in the game and followed it up by allowing seven earned runs in Detroit six days later. And then he followed that up with 10 strikeouts against the Blue Jays five days later. Ivan Nova has me so confused, but he finished the season with a 5.02 ERA and if he’s given a rotation spot, I’m scared he will get too many chances before he’s removed of it. (See: Freddy Garcia, 2012.)

This Saturday will be the first baseball of the year even if it’s fake and in less than six weeks we’ll be in the Bronx for real, actual, meaningful baseball. I would like to think that between now and Opening Day I won’t need to bother you to be reassured that this isn’t the year when the Yankees finally bottom out like the 2012 Red Sox, but I know there will be an issue to address between now and April 1 at 1:05 p.m. I will keep your email and phone number handy.

Murti: Jeter joked the other day that he didnt’ get to talk to Mariano very much this winter because Mariano changed his phone number. Not that I’m comparing either of us to either of them, but it does give me an idea.

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Blogs • Email Exchanges • Yankees

Aug 29, 2012

A State of Worry for the Yankees

The Yankees have basically played .500 baseball in the second half and the constant worrying about their division lead led to an email exchange with Jake Strasser of Barstool Sports.

On Wednesday, July 18, the Yankees finished a sweep of the Blue Jays with a 6-0 win at the Stadium and they finished the day with a 10-game lead in the division. Today their lead is 3 1/2 games.

The Yankees have gone 22-21 since the All-Star break and 18-20 since they held that 10-game lead on July 18. The injuries are mounting and now the team will enter September without Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira in the lineup. I haven’t pulled the alarm yet on the 2012 Yankees and avoiding the one-game playoff, but I have shattered the glass and my hand is on the lever.

With constant worrying and scoreboard watching each day, I thought it would be a good idea to talk to someone who I know is going through the same thing. And that’s how this email exchange with Jake Strasser of Barstool Sports started.

Keefe: On Tuesday night, Steve Pearce hit fourth for the Yankees. Russell Martin hit fifth. If you didn’t watch the game, I could probably sell you on the idea that I hit sixth and the doorman in my apartment building hit seventh. That’s how bad things are right now for the Yankees due to injuries.

With A-Rod already out, Mark Teixeira went down on Monday night and Joe Girardi said he could be out “seven, eight or 15 days.” (The man who counted like that actually went to Northwestern University.) So yeah, if our starting pitching right now doesn’t do what Phil Hughes did on Tuesday night then it’s going to be really hard to win games. And if Rafael Soriano does what he did on Monday night it’s going to be even harder.

The reason the Yankees lost in five games to the Tigers last year was because of their hitting. Their pitching could have been better, but it was their hitting with runners in scoring position and the heart of the order that did them in. This year I’m scared that the same thing might happen. Actually I’m not scared … I’m petrified. And it’s not even the ALDS I’m scared of. It’s the one-game playoff. I have already been stocking up on bottled water, canned foods, flashlights and batteries in the event that the Yankees have to play in that one-game playoff.

It wasn’t too long ago that the Yankees had a comfortable 10-game lead in the division and I was laughing and watching games with a spring training mentality. Now with a month to go I feel like every game is Game 7 and I’m scoreboard watching Tampa Bay and Baltimore. Things have unraveled quickly. I don’t think I will truly be nervous until the lead gets to two games (if it ever gets there), but the current state of the Yankees is enough to cause for a test of the emergency broadcast system.

With a month to go, what is your take on the state of the Yankees and how worried are you of the possibility of a one-game playoff, if you’re worried at all?

Strasser: The Yankees are an enigma. I have never seen a club traverse the spectrum of success quite like this year’s team. There are points throughout the course of the season when they coast through series after series with what seems to be zero resistance. And then you have the stretches of poor play when the Yankee offense channels its inner Astros and the lineup looks anemic at the plate. The Yankees are a team built to crush mediocrity. Aside from the game’s top-shelf arms, along with any double-A pitcher lucky enough to make his debut in the Bronx, the Yankees are a near-sure bet to put up at least five or six runs on any given night. But what happens when they run into the buzz saw arms of the Verlanders and Weavers of the league? Well, we’ve all seen it a million times. How many 4-1 or 6-2 losses can we take?

As demonstrated the other night in Cleveland, the Yankees live and die with the home run. In a game where they let myriad scoring opportunities slip through their fingers against Indians pitcher, Corey Kluber, they ended up pulling out the win with a late two-run home run by Swisher. I’ve never been mad about a Yankee win, but I’d be lying if I said that one didn’t infuriate me. The ball that Swisher hit not only cleared the right-field wall, but the team from getting questioned about their inability to manufacture runs as well. The big blast consistently overshadows the offensive woes. This is great for the regular season, but aces on playoff teams don’t generally give up the long ball. The Yankees don’t move the runners, they don’t play small ball, and they don’t hit in the clutch. So where does that leave them? A couple games behind the best record in the AL. It’s both perplexing and frustrating how a team can look so good on paper, but instill a much lower level of confidence on the field.

So you ask me how nervous I am for a potential one-game playoff? Let’s put it this way- I’m letting my fingernails grow out until that day so I have plenty to pick for all nine innings. My cuticles will look like a teen slasher horror movie by the sixth. It all depends on the pitching match up, but anything can happen. And that’s what scares me. Given the roster (and the payroll), the Yankees should have the edge over any team, but as was stated in Moneyball, statistics go out the window when it comes to one game. For the Yankees to have any sort of success in this year’s playoff run, it will come from one or two guys getting hot at the right time circa 2009 with A Rod and Matsui. And if that doesn’t happen, well, let’s hope for a relevant Jets team, because it will be yet another early round exit for the pinstripes.

Keefe: You said it all depends on the pitching matchup, but we shouldn’t worry because a wise man once told me in a podcast that “Ivan Nova will become a big-game pitcher.” Actually that wasn’t a wise man … it was you.

OK, maybe that’s a low-blow, but I don’t think it is since you did disregard Hiroki Kuroda, who I talked up on that same podcast and now he’s become the Yankees’ best pitcher. Before we go any further, I think you owe No. 18 an apology.

(This is ne waiting for your apology…)

Let’s continue and let’s say the Yankees don’t completely fall apart between now and Game 162 and reach the ALDS and that Andy Pettitte returns and is healthy enough to pitch in the postseason. Who’s pitching Games 1, 2 and 3? Hopefully they don’t need a Game 4 starter, but eff it, let’s put a Game 4 starter in there too. And I know we have talked about it before, but I think it’s important for an update since it changes all the time.

I’m going with CC Sabathia, Andy Pettitte, Hiroki Kuroda and then … umm … hmm … uhh … I guess … Phil Hughes? I would love to say David Phelps there, but we both know that’s not going to happen, and I don’t want Freddy Garcia anywhere near a playoff game again let alone on the postseason roster.

Strasser: Yeah, so I put myself out there with a bold prediction. Strasser took a shot, and you know what, Strasser missed. But at least I’m in the game. You’re sitting over there on the sidelines observing and reporting while I’m risking my reputation on a daily basis. You’re the douche bag with the combover in Good Will Hunting and I’m Matt Damon. I may be serving your fries on the way to your ski trip, but at least I’m original. So enjoy your bland perspective of watching and relaying, while I take a leap of faith and throw my heart into something I believe. I’d rather falsely predict something with 100% conviction than sit in the shadows and play it safe any day. I dare to dream, Neil. I dare to dream.

The postseason rotation depends entirely on the situation. It’s CC first, and then either Kuroda or Pettitte. If CC loses game 1 for instance, assuming a healthy Pettitte, I want Andy on the mound. He’s a big-game pitcher and going down 0-2 is a death sentence. I do owe Kuroda an apology, and I have gained a lot of faith in him, but the playoffs are a different world.

It also depends on the breakdown of home and away. It’s no secret that Kuroda is a better pitcher at the Stadium. That plays into rotation decisions, as well. Ask me this question when the ALDS schedule is set, and I’ll have a more definitive answer for you. Until then, Nova4Life.

Keefe: Being called the scumbag in the Harvard bar in Good Will Hunting is as bad as it gets, so move over “me wanting Ubaldo Jimenez last year” there’s a new low point in my life. And I don’t think it was a bold prediction or anything that out there since Nova did win Game 1 of the ALDS last year before getting pulled early in Game 5. So let’s hold patting yourself on the back for a second there. It’s not like you told me that CC Sabathia would go on the DL twice and Andy Pettitte and Alex Rodriguez would also hit the DL and Mariano Rivera and Brett Gardner would be out for the year and the Yankees would still be in first in the division. That would be something to be proud of.

The Yankees are in a weird spot with the looming luxury tax penalties. It seemed like a foregone conclusion that they would sign Robinson Cano and Curtis Granderson to long-term deals and let Nick Swisher walk away. But a funny thing happened on a way to that plan. Actually, it’s not funny. What happened is Granderson has become Adam Dunn-like and Swisher has carried the team offensively through August. (Granderson is still a great defender while I don’t trust Swisher on routine plays.) Now there is talk that Swisher wants Jayson Werth’s $126 million, which is unlikely, but he will at least get a solid deal given his performance this year and the weak free agent market.

It’s no secret that I’m not that big of a Nick Swisher fan, if I’m one at all, which I don’t think I am. I know it will all come down to what he does in October, which is likely nothing, but it seems more and more likely that Swisher and his phony personality and his disgusting arguments on called third strikes might not only be back in the Bronx for 2013, but maybe a few years after. And it doesn’t help that the Red Sox’ impending interest in him will likely drive his price up and force the Yankees to make a play for him.

If Nicky Swish (sorry to go John Sterling on you) finally hits in the postseason and the Yankees make a long run, that’s one thing. But if he fails to hit elite pitching for the fourth straight postseason I don’t want to see No. 33 in right field in 2013 unless the new right fielder also wants to wear No. 33.

Strasser: I like the idea of Swisher. What does that mean? Well, this. Fake or not, he helps the clubhouse – one that up until his arrival in 2009, had been publicly documented as stiff and stale. His boisterous personality is good for the team and even better for the fans. That being said, he doesn’t really do it for me on the field. Outside of this year, which so coincidentally happens to be a contract year, he hasn’t been anything special in my opinion. He targets the short porch far too frequently, often times resulting in a pop out to short when a ground ball to second would have moved the runner over.

If the Yankees commit the amount of money Swisher will want, and the basic fundamentals of supply and demand will allow, it will result in an overpaid outfielder clogging a spot that could be used for future acquisitions. I love his on-base percentage, I love his occasional power, but I don’t love his price tag. Let him walk.

Keefe: There’s going to come a time in October when Joe Girardi decides, “Hey, these people paid to come see me manage and insert myself into this game and not to see the players on the field” and he will likely turn to Clay Rapada or Cody Eppley to get a big out. Let’s just hope they get that big out.

The bullpen pecking order is all out of whack right now aside from Rafael Soriano and David Robertson. I think Boone Logan is probably viewed as the third-best reliever (that feels weird even thinking about let alone typing) and then it’s a mess between Cody Eppley, Clay Rapada and whoever that guy wearing No. 62 and pretending to be Joba Chamberlain is. I really only trust David Robertson out there even though Soriano has been great, and I don’t want the other three putting their hands on the game. Actually there might be one guy I don’t mind.

For some reason and I can’t explain this, I still have this thing about Joba in that I trust him. Or I want to trust him. When I see him out there I have flashbacks of the summer of 2007 and unhittable fastballs and devastating sliders. I see fist pumps and scoreless innings. In reality, he is basically Chad Qualls right now (actually he’s statistically worse). This pains me and I don’t want it to be like this, but the guy is also coming back from elbow surgery, having his appendix removed and a brutal ankle injury. I think he will find it, I just don’t know when.

Strasser: I’m pretty much in agreement with you on the bullpen issue. Robertson I trust, and Soriano I’m warming up to. Joba will hopefully come around because like you said, I want to trust him. I want to remember being at the first game he ever pitched in at the stadium (Section 434B … I splurged) and seeing the Bronx sky erupt with amazement at the spectacle we had all just witnessed. But is that guy still there, or are we just reaching for something that doesn’t exist like an image popping off the screen in a 3D movie? You know those a-holes swiping at the air in front of them … are we those a-holes, Neil?

You’re leaving out one incredibly important detail as far as playoff bullpen pitching goes. One man, three syllables: David Phelps. I loved this guy in the bullpen earlier in the season, and I like what I’m seeing from him as a starter. Throwing him back in the bullpen for a late September push and on into October could be that bridge the Yankees need to get to Robertson and Soriano.

Keefe: I forgot about your man crush on David Phelps and I hate to break it to you, but I think it’s a love triangle. That’s right, I’m joining this party, so I hope there’s room for three. I have loved everything Phelps has done for this team, and if he isn’t given a postseason start (which he very well could if he continues to impress and dominate) then he will be a huge addition to the bullpen.

You have told me that Raul Ibanez is your sleeper pick to be huge for the Yankees in the postseason, and I’m onboard with that decision. Ibanez has that “thing” about him that exudes confidence especially when the at-bats are the biggest the setting is most important. Granted, we could both be way off and he could have a Swisher-like 2-for-15 ALDS and the Yankees could be home in five games, but let’s just hope that’s not the case.

The other guy I think is going to be huge in October is Ichiro because of who he is and what he wanted out of going to New York to win and getting out of Seattle, the only place he ever knew in the majors. Ichiro hasn’t played in the postseason since Game 5 of the 2001 ALCS on the other side of the River Ave. Now he has a chance to chase that elusive championship, pick up the one thing missing in a Hall of Fame career that boasts a Rookie of the Year, MVP, batting titles, single-season hits records, Gold Gloves and All-Star Games, and a chance to earn a multiyear deal at the end of the season.

Why do you think Ibanez will be big in the postseason and what are you thoughts on Ichiro returning to October?

Strasser: There’s something about Raul Ibanez. He’s got that look. It’s a combination of focus, clutch, and ugly. The first two are going to be huge in October. Well, huge in my mind at least. In my mind, he has already hit two of those majestic moonshots to right in the first game of the ALDS. Okay, that may be a bit hopeful, but I really do get that vibe from him. That oddly unexplainable Jeterian vibe. But hey, I could be wrong. It’s happened before … cough … Nova … cough.

As far as Ichiro goes, I see him doing a lot of the little things for us in the playoffs. I’m not gonna sit here as a delusional Yankee homer and tell you that he’s going to rediscover his MVP form and hit .450 in the ALDS, but I do think he can provide some important benefits for the team. His baseball instincts are great, and sometimes a playoff win and the subsequent advancement to the next series can come down to one play. Whether it’s an astounding defensive play, some 2009 WS Damon-esque base running, or some other sort of contribution, I could see Ichiro having one or two “Yankee moments” in October.

My final prediction for the playoffs revolves around one of the most inconsistent cold weather bats in the league. No. 24 in your program and probably right around that number in our hearts, Robinson Cano has the potential to carry the Yankees to a ring. He’s just nonchalant enough to sleepwalk through a postseason line of .390 with eight home runs and 21 RBIs.

Keefe: Everyone keeps asking me if the Yankees can win the World Series, and I keep telling these people that I think they can. Right now there’s isn’t one team that really stands out in the AL, but if Pettitte returns healthy then a rotation of CC Sabathia, Andy Pettitte and Hiroki Kuroda is as good as any 1-2-3 punch this postseason.

But to win the World Series it’s going to take winning the ALDS first (and hopefully not the one-game playoff first). I think the Yankees’ best chance of advancing would be if the Orioles make the one-game playoff and win it. The Yankees have loved playing in Camden Yards since it opened and no matter the year or roster turnover, the Yankees continue to win there, and with the first games of the division series on the road, that’s a big deal. I don’t want to see the Rays since the Yankees can’t win at the Trop anymore, or the Tigers since they seem to have our number or the White Sox since the Yankees had enough trouble winning a game there last week, forget October. Even the A’s scare me with their starting pitching and the idea of going 3,000 miles for the first two games of the ALDS isn’t exactly enticing. Give me Baltimore!

Strasser: The best option for the Yankees to play in the ALDS is the not-Angels. I think the Yankees can really expose some of the weaknesses of the not-Angels and capitalize on their shortcomings. Seriously though, the one team I’m terrified of is the Angels. I have no idea why they aren’t running away with the West, but if they get into the playoffs, look out. Mike Trout is just young and naive enough to not even realize that he’s having this historic season that could easily carry into October. They are the one team in the AL I most certainly don’t want to face.

To be honest, there isn’t one team that I would sign up to play right now. If anything, it would be the Rangers and their mediocre pitching staff, but we all know what can happen when Josh Hamilton or Nelson Cruz gets hot. Still, if I had to choose, I’ll take a matchup with the Rangers and their antler nonsense.

As much as I bash the Yankees’ deficiencies, I think they will hang on to win the division. Pettitte and A-Rod are coming back, CC looks sharp after his 12th DL stint of the year and Kuroda continues to mock me. I don’t think Tampa has the offense and I’m still not sold on Baltimore, despite their success this season. I also hate Buck Showalter and refuse to give him any credit, but the O’s are a good team. Another scary group of inexperienced guys playing above their heads. Is “above their heads” an expression? If not, it is now.

Keefe: You want to play the Rangers? In real life? I don’t think I can even given you a chance to respond to this after that.

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