Colby Lewis – Keefe To The City

Jul 29, 2014

The Joe Girardi Show: Season 5, Episode 3

The Yankees lost another winnable game in the middle of a pennant race and Joe Girardi’s decision making once again played a prominent role in the loss.

On Sunday afternoon, Paul O’Neill said the following about Joe Girardi, which left me with the same blank stare Dave Kujan had when he realized “Verbal” Kint was Keyser Soze.

“I think that Joe Girardi realizes where this team is. You have to win every single game you have an opportunity to win. You have an opportunity to win this game, you go all out. You don’t worry about tomorrow.”

What shocked me is how anyone, let alone Paul O’Neill, could think that about Joe Girardi. No one plays for tomorrow more than Joe Girardi, always worrying about hypothetical situations that will most likely never take place.

I did the first episode of the fifth season of The Joe Girardi Show back on April 21 and then I didn’t do the second episode until July 22 (one week ago). I finished last week’s episode by saying the following:

I always hope that my latest version of The Joe Girardi Show is the last one I will ever have to do because it would mean he wouldn’t have given me a reason to write another one. Unfortunately, I know that won’t be the case.

Here we are, seven days later and I’m writing the third episode. Like I said, I don’t want to have do these, but I especially don’t want to have to be doing them at the end of July with the Yankees in the middle of both a division race and wild-card race.

The Yankees could have won on Saturday if Joe Girardi didn’t carelessly and irresponsibly let Jeff Francis pitch the ninth inning of one-run game against a division opponent the Yankees are battling to win a playoff spot. But he left Francis pitch and the Blue Jays turned their one-run lead into a four-run lead rendering Carlos Beltran’s two-run home in the bottom of the ninth worthless.

On Sunday, Girardi let David Huff (DAVID HUFF!!!) pitch the seventh inning of a tie game against the Blue Jays. Well, he let him start the seventh inning and once Huff put the first two hitters of the inning on base then Girardi brought in Dellin Betances, who eventually escaped a bases-loaded jam, most likely making Girardi believe in his own head that he made the right decision. Like I have always said, Girardi is the guy who stays with a 16 in Blackjack with the dealer showing a 7 and when the dealer flips over a 9 and then pulls a 10 to bust, Girardi thinks he made the right decision.

But even after some inexplicable moves over the weekend against the team the Yankees are currently battling for divisional and wild-card position, Monday was the boiling point once again. I couldn’t take it anymore when on Monday, for the second time in as many Mondays, his decision making was at the forefront of a Yankees loss to the Rangers — the worst team in Major League Baseball.

So once again, it was necessary to fill in for Michael Kay on my version of The Joe Girardi Show.

Why did David Phelps face J.P. Arencibia?
The better question here might be “Why did David Phelps throw the 0-2 pitch that he threw to J.P. Arencibia?” but if Phelps hadn’t faced Arencibia then he never would have been able to throw that 0-2 meatball.

Here was David Phelps’ line for the game before the fifth inning started: 4 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 2 K, 55 pitches. He gave up a single on five pitches to start the inning and then retired the next two hitters on four pitches. His updated line: 4.2 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 2 K, 64 pitches.

After that, Elvis Andrus singled (first pitch), Alex Rios singled (third pitch), and Adrian Beltre doubled (third pitch). His updated line: 4.2 IP, 7 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 0 BB, 2 K, 71 pitches.

At 8 p.m. last night in Arlington it was 88 degrees with 40 percent humidity and at 9 p.m. it was 86 degrees with 41 percent humidity. After giving up three hits in four innings, Phelps, who usually pitches in much different conditions, had just allowed four hits to the last six batters and after having thrown 37 pitches in the first three innings, he had now thrown 34 in the last 1 2/3 innings. Phelps was tiring and losing control of his pitches and the game, so what did Girardi do? He let him face Jim Adduci. And what did Phelps do? He walked him on four pitches.

Let’s recap: Phelps was cruising, having pitched four shutout innings and allowing just three hits and no walks on 55 pitches. He had now put five of the seven batters he faced in the inning on base and after giving up three consecutive hits, he had just walked a 29-year-old career minor leaguer, who entered the game with 73 career plate appearances in the majors, on four pitches. Would you say that David Phelps was fatigued, had lost control and should be removed from a tie game with one of the game’s best pitchers going against the Yankees? I would.

I know why Joe Girardi left David Phelps in the game. Arencibia entered the game hitting .147/.194/.305, and more importantly, he entered the game 1-for-11 with five strikeouts against Phelps, but this is where the binder backfires. Arencibia’s stat page against Phelps in Girardi’s binder says that he is 1-for-11 with five strikeouts against him, but it doesn’t say that the sun was melting Arlington on Monday night with Phelps laboring over the last four hitters and now having thrown 20 pitches already in the inning. Phelps had fully unraveled before he threw an 0-2 fastball to a hitter who loves fastballs, but Girardi decided a tired Phelps running on fumes was his best option in a pennant race with a rested elite bullpen. If Arencibia, having a horrible offensive year, has had so much trouble making contact against Phelps, who isn’t exactly a strikeout pitcher, wouldn’t he have even more trouble against a true strikeout pitcher out of the bullpen?

Single up the middle. 4-2 Rangers.

Why did Jacoby Ellsbury get the day off?
Before Monday’s game there were 58 games left in the season and the Yankees trailed in the division by 4 games and in the wild card by 1 game. On Monday, the Yankees were playing the worst team in the league with one of the best pitchers in the game on the mound, so you would think you would want to put your best offensive lineup together. If you want to rest someone, maybe give them a rest on Tuesday against Nick Martinez or on Wednesday against Colby Lewis. But against Yu Darvish? Why? Whyyyy?!?! WHYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?! Ellsbury was eventually used as a pinch hitter to lead off the ninth, so his “day off” wasn’t a day off. But he wasn’t used as a pinch hitter with two on and two out in the eighth. Instead he used Zelous Wheeler in that spot because you have to have a right-handed hitter face a left-handed pitcher!

Jacoby Ellsbury signed a seven-year, $153 million deal in the offseason. He is making $21.1 million this season and is hitting LINE with HR and RBIs. He last stole He is one of several reasons that Robinson Cano is now playing in Seattle. He should be playing EV-ERY SING-LE GAME. Every one. He is 30 years old, not 40 and even if he has a history of freak injuries, and then babying those injuries, you can’t plan for freak injuries, and he needs to play every day.

Mike Francesa has repeatedly called Ellsbury “the Yankees’ best player” and in 2014 with a 40-year-old Derek Jeter, a bad Carlos Beltran, an inconsistent Brian McCann and Mark Teixeira being softer than ever, that’s not much of an accomplishment for Ellsbury. But if he is “the Yankees’ best player” he needs to play every day. That’s what “best players” do. Ask Robinson Cano.

If Mark Teixeira could pinch hit, why didn’t he play the whole game?
Mark Teixeira is the fraud of all frauds. He has received a free pass as a Yankee because the team won the World Series in his first year with the team thanks to Alex Rodriguez, who from 2004-2009 had to deal with the postseason ridicule that Teixeira should also have to deal with. If the Yankees were still looking for a championship since 2000, Teixeira wouldn’t be making appearances in Entourage and trying to be Johnny Carson for YES while on the disabled list.

Last February, Teixeira foreshadowed that he is breaking down despite at the time still being owed $90 million. He then got hurt preparing for the World Baseball Classic and played in just 15 games before undergoing season-ending wrist surgery. This season, Teixeira has missed time due to hamstring, wrist, rib cage, knee and lat injuries and also tired legs. The last time he played in a game was the series finale against the Reds last Sunday (July 20). After successfully taking on-field batting practice on Monday night in Texas it was made known that he was healthy enough to return to the lineup on Tuesday night.

Joe Girardi has this “rule” where once an injured player appears healthy enough to return to the lineup, they are given an extra day before returning. That would be a good “rule” to follow if there were a lot of off-days in baseball, but there aren’t and there aren’t any days that can be wasted when you’re chasing 4 (now 4.5) in the division and 1 (now 2) in the wild card. So if Teixeira was deemed eligible to play on Tuesday night, that means Monday was his “Girardi Day” where he would sit for no reason other than as an extra precaution like someone setting an alarm clock for their alarm clock.

One on, two out, trailing 4-2 in the eighth inning and Brian Roberts, who should no longer be on the team let alone in the lineup against Yu Darvish, is called back to the dugout for pinch hitter Mark Teixeira. He singled. What if Joe Girardi had played him the entire game?

I hope Paul O’Neill was watching Monday’s game because he would have seen how wrong he was on Sunday. Joe Girardi always plays for tomorrow. If he doesn’t stop, at the end of September, there won’t be a tomorrow to play for.

Blogs • Email Exchanges • Yankees

Aug 13, 2012

Yankees and Rangers Share Identical Situations

The Rangers are in the Bronx for a four-game series and possible playoff preview and the meeting between the AL’s top two teams called for an email exchange with Adam J. Morris of Lone Star Ball.

The Yankees and Rangers haven’t met since April 25 in Texas when the Rangers took the rubber game of a three-game set early on in the season. This week the Rangers make their first and only trip to the Bronx for a four-game series, which will be the last four games this two teams play against each other in 2012 … unless they meet in the postseason.

Right now the Yankees and Rangers are the top two teams in the American League and are jockeying for position to stay out of the dreaded and nonsensical one-game playoff and trying to clinch home-field advantage. The Yankees still lead the AL East by five games, but some inconsistent play combined with a Tampa Bay winning streak has started to make things a little uncomfortable for the Yankees and Yankees fans in August.

Adam J. Morris of Lone Star Ball joined me for an email exchange to talk about the current state of the Yankees and Rangers, how they are very similar with their rosters and problems and the possibility of another postseason meeting between the two teams.

Keefe: I’ll never forget what Michael Kay said after the Yankees’ comeback in Game 1 of 2010 ALCS on YES’ postgame show. “I said it after Game 1 against the Twins and I’m saying it again … this series is over.” Sure, the Yankees had just completed an epic postseason game comeback against C.J. Wilson and the Rangers bullpen, in very similar fashion to what they had done against Francisco Liriano and Twins in Game 1 of the ALDS, and they had Phil Hughes (who shut down the Twins in Game 3 of the ALDS and who always pitched well in Texas) going in Game 2 against Colby Lewis the next day, along with all of the momentum on their side. It seemed like the Yankees were in a great position to head to the Bronx up 2-0 in the series. That’s when everything changed.

Hughes got lit up in Game 2, and would get lit up again in Game 6, turning in disastrous performances that mirrored Chien-Ming Wang’s awful 2007 ALDS against the Indians. The Yankees were shut down by Lewis in Game 3 and again in Game 6, and between those games, Cliff Lee quieted Yankee Stadium (again) in Game 3, and a combination of Joe Girardi, A.J. Burnett and Yankee killer Bengie Molina cost the Yankees Game 4. Even though the Yankees were able to get to Wilson again and win Game 5, as I was sitting in the Stadium for Game 5, it felt like a tease to extend the series. Even if the Yankees could take Game 6, Cliff Lee was waiting for a potential Game 7, and all he had done is embarrass the Yankees in the last two postseasons.

I said that everything changed for the ALCS after the Yankees’ Game 2 loss, but really it changed when they didn’t get Cliff Lee that July. Had the Yankees successfully traded for Lee, he would have pitched Game 2 of the series and not Hughes, and he wouldn’t have been available for the Rangers to shut the Yankees down with a two-hit, complete-game shutout in Game 3.

When the Yankees lost to the Tigers in last year’s ALDS, it sucked the way that the end of any Yankees season sucks. But knowing that the Rangers were waiting in the ALCS to likely walk through the Yankees again lessened the blow of losing to a Tigers team that the Yankees had a chance to beat every game if they could just get one hit with runners in scoring position.

Right now I look at the Yankees’ potential playoff matchups and the one that scares me the most is still your Texas Rangers for now the third straight year. I know Cliff Lee isn’t there and the vaunted (at least to Yankees fans) Colby Lewis is out for the season, but that lineup is as good as its been and the bullpen still boasts names you don’t want to see in the late innings.

As a Rangers fan, how do you feel about my fear of the Rangers? Are you as confident about your team as I am about not wanting anything to do with them this October?

Morris: I feel good about the Rangers’ chances in 2012. After the last couple of seasons, it’s hard not to have confidence that the Rangers are going to do well in the postseason. This is, for the most part, the same team that has reached the World Series the past two years. With Texas now up 6 1/2 games on the A’s and eight games on the Angels, we should be looking at having home-field advantage for the ALDS, and if they can hold off the Yankees, it would mean home-field advantage in the ALCS as well.

The biggest concern right now for Rangers fans is the state of the starting rotation. Yu Darvish was brought in to be the staff ace, and he essentially replaced C.J. Wilson. Darvish has been up and down all season, looking at times like a guy who is worth the $110 million the Rangers have spent and committed in the future to land him, while looking at other times like a guy who has no idea where the ball is going. Colby Lewis, who was slated to be the team’s Game 1 starter in the playoffs, is down for the year with a torn flexor tendon, and the team is going to miss his steadying influence. Roy Oswalt, given $5 million to pitch for a half-season, was bumped to the bullpen in favor of Scott Feldman, the guy whose job he was supposed to take. Derek Holland has been erratic, and there are still questions about whether Ryan Dempster can adjust to the AL. The team’s best starter has been Matt Harrison, a guy who was left off the 2010 postseason roster entirely. So the rotation is in flux, and while Texas will probably roll out four starters who won’t embarrass them in the postseason, they don’t have that legitimate No. 1 guy to head up the playoff rotation.

That being said, the bullpen is strong and deep, and the lineup is solid. There are concerns that the offense has gone into funks from time to time this year, but all in all, I think Rangers fans should be feeling pretty good about this team heading into the postseason.

Keefe: Well, when you put it that way, maybe I shouldn’t be so concerned with the Rangers. Then again, I have seen the Yankees struggle against even mediocre starting pitching in the playoffs to get too excited about the Rangers’ rotation issues.

I wanted to talk more with you about Cliff Lee because to me he has always been The One That Got Away, and the one that I believe was the missing piece to what would have been back-to-back championships in 2010.

After the Rangers went “all-in” for a chance to return to the postseason in 2010, and you swooped in to get Lee for Justin Smoak from the Mariners, I was devastated. I had woken up that July to a flurry of texts and emails about a report that the Yankees were close to getting Lee for Jesus Montero and the deal seemed to be at the one-yard line and just needed some t’s crossed and some i’s dotted. Obviously the t’s never got crossed and the i’s remained dotless, and Lee did what he did in Game 3, and put a dagger into the Yankees’ season. But I was reassured that he would be part of the rotation in 2011 before Ruben Amaro and the Phillies had to join the party as Jon Heyman’s “mystery team” and make a play for him. This move basically ruined the Christmas hype for me and led to me writing this.

This season, with the Phillies tanking, and rumors of Lee being available and placed on waivers, I thought this was the Yankees’ third chance to get Lee and fate along the lines of Matt Damon and Emily Blunt in The Adjustment Bureau. But with the Steinbrenner’s being serious about staying under the luxury tax, and the Dodgers’ new money trying to make a statement to the league, the Yankees lost out on the chance to trade for him or claim him.

I still haven’t gotten the chance to have Lee take the ball for the Yankees every fifth day, and at this point, maybe I never will unless something miraculous happens in the offseason. I want him now just as much as I did two summers ago when he joined your team. But I need to know what it was like to have maybe my favorite non-Yankee (before he torched them) pitch for your team.

Morris: Having Lee in Texas, even for a short period of time, was something special. He is an artist on the mound. I think watching him on a regular basis was probably like being a Braves fan in the mid-90s and watching Greg Maddux every fifth day. The weird thing is that the Rangers didn’t actually win all that much with Lee on the mound during the regular season, as he had some outings where he had bad luck with the defense or balls in play, or the offense wouldn’t score for him. But despite all that, when it came to be playoff time, I had no doubts that the Rangers would win with Lee on the mound.

I’m sad he’s gone. He’s a special pitcher. But at the same time, the amount of money that the Phillies committed to him is onerous, and I don’t know that it would be a good business decision to match that, given his age and the fact that he’s had a hard time staying healthy. His impeccable command is based on him being in terrific physical condition, and I’m worried that the nagging injuries that keep slowing him down will take their toll on him sooner rather than later.

Keefe: The Rangers’ rotation isn’t necessarily what it has been the last two years. But as a Yankees fan, with Andy Pettitte still rehabbing his ankle, CC Sabathia hitting the DL with an elbow problem that appears to be much more serious than Joe Girardi led on to believe and Phil Hughes and Ivan Nova being hit or miss right now, that leaves us with Hiroki Kuroda as a reliable starter. (Sorry, Freddy Garcia.) So it looks like if we meet in the ALCS for the second time in three years, it could be an offensive gongshow in two stadiums built for high-scoring games.

And that’s what scares me about the Rangers team. The lineup from top to bottom can go toe-to-toe with the Yankees’, and that’s always been the Yankees’ one advantage. Their mentality since 2004 has always been, you might outpitch us, but we’ll outhit you. And that idea has only turned into one title. Hopefully, CC will be fine, Andy will come back, and I won’t need to pray for A-Rod, Mark Teixeira and Nick Swisher to get timely hits in big spots with runners in scoring position.

As I look up and down the Rangers’ lineup, there’s Ian Kinsler and Andrus and Hamilton and Beltre and Cruz, and Yankee killers Michael Young, and the most-feared power-hitting catcher in the league in Mike Napoli. Over the last decade I had grown used to worrying about the Red Sox and their lineup and when David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez would be due up. There were other guys in their lineup that bothered me, but not to that extent. In the Rangers’ lineup, every guy makes me uneasy and this week at the Stadium (and possibly in the playoffs) that level of discomfort and fear will only rise.

As a Yankees fan, when Teixeira is up, I envision a pop-up. When Swisher is up, I see a called third strike in a full count. When A-Rod’s up, I see a long drive that would have been out in year’s past before his decline. Am I just thinking like this because I know these hitters so well, or are fans like Rangers fans petrified of the Yankees’ lineup? My friends that are Red Sox fans used to tell me they were scared of A-Rod and Gary Sheffield and petrified of Hideki Matsui, and I really only understood the Matsui thinking. Are you scared of the Yankees’ lineup, and which opposing players scare you the most?

Morris: I think the Yankees have an impressive lineup. Other than Robinson Cano, there isn’t one guy who’s having a dominant offensive season, but the Yankees’ lineup is solid from top to bottom, with no real weaknesses (other than maybe third base now that A-Rod is out).

Between the Rangers and Yankees, I think it’s just about a coin flip as to which team is stronger offensively. Like the Yankees, the Rangers are pretty solid top to bottom (with the exception of DH, where Michael Young has been drowning all season), and they have dangerous hitters throughout who can give you the opportunity for a big inning. If I had to pick someone on the Yankees who scares me, it would probably be Cano or Curtis Granderson. Both are quality hitters who (based on just my memory) seem to hit the Rangers well.

Keefe: If the Yankees do what I want them to do then Nick Swisher won’t be playing right field for the Yankees starting in 2013. As an impending free agent and with the Yankees set on staying under the luxury-tax threshold that is ruining my life, it looks like they will save money to make offers to both Robinson Cano and Curtis Granderson. Maybe they will try to bring Ichiro back if he continues to hit and doesn’t show signs of decline in the outfield or on the basepaths. But the one name that is the most intriguing is Josh Hamilton.

I really don’t think the Yankees will make a play for Hamilton, though I have said that about a lot of other big-name free agents that they decided to join and win the bidding on. But I think in Hamilton’s case, with his checkered past and problems with substance abuse, New York City doesn’t seem like the best place for someone who can’t have more than $20 in their wallet (even though that won’t even get you a sandwich and a subway fare in the city, let alone a beer) and for someone who needs another adult to shadow them. I can easily see Hamilton enjoying the short porch in right field if he were to call Yankee Stadium his home starting in 2012, but I don’t think it’s realistic.

How badly do you want Hamilton to remain a Ranger? And if he’s not back in Texas, where else could you see him ending up?

Morris: I’d like Hamilton to stay in Texas, but I’m expecting him to leave after the season. The biggest concern that I have with Hamilton is that I don’t think he’s going to age well. He has an extensive injury history which is worrisome, but his approach is also a big red flag. His tendency to swing at almost anything, whether it’s a ball or a strike, has generally served him well thus far, but it’s not the sort of approach which appears to be sustainable for a player as he gets older and he starts to slow down.

As great as Hamilton is now, I fear that his decline phase will be steep, and I don’t think that he’s someone you want to commit big money to for his mid- and late-30s. Eight years, $200 million is the number that gets bandied about, and he’s not going to get that in Texas.

I thought before the season that the Dodgers made sense, given that they are committed to spending money and want big names. I’m less certain that the Dodgers will be players on Hamilton, given that they’ve locked up Andre Ethier, and I don’t know that they want to have $60 million per year committed long term to a Matt Kemp-Josh Hamilton-Andre Ethier outfield, but I still think they’ll at least kick the tires. The Mariners, who have lost Ichiro, would also seem to be a good fit.

Keefe: I didn’t want Ryan Dempster on the Yankees and with less than an hour to go in the trade deadline it looked like the Yankees might be the favorite to land him and some places were reporting that in fact the Yankees were close to getting a deal done with the Cubs. But like Cliff Lee, your Rangers stepped in and traded for Dempster. But unlike Cliff Lee, I wasn’t disappointed that the Rangers stepped in.

So far out of Dempster you have seen why I didn’t want the Yankees to trade for an aging NL pitcher in his start against the Angels, but you have also seen why the Rangers made the move for him in his start against the Red Sox. I’m not really sure which Dempster you will see over the final six weeks or so of the season and the postseason, but I can only hope on Monday night at the Stadium, we get to see the Ryan Dempster that showed up to the AL and got rocked by the Angels.

What was your initial reaction to the Rangers getting Dempster? Were you happy with the move?

Morris: My initial reaction to learning we had traded for Dempster was mixed. The Rangers were in a position where they could have used a solid starter, but I didn’t see it as a need, and was concerned that the cost in terms of prospects would be too high.

But when I learned that the Rangers had given up just Christian Villanueva and Kyle Hendricks, and that Neftali Feliz was going to undergo Tommy John surgery and thus wouldn’t re-join the rotation, I was happy with the move. I would have liked a No. 1, but the price for would have been prohibitive.

Blogs • Yankees

Aug 7, 2012

Postseason Pitching Fears

After Justin Verlander’s 14 strikeouts on Monday night, it’s time to start thinking about which pitchers the Yankees shouldn’t want to see in the ALDS this October.

I spend an unhealthy amount of time worrying about who the Yankees will play in the ALDS, considering the possibilities and doing hours of math involving the American League standings. But I have learned over the years that all the time I spend looking at the standings, matchups, lineups, rotations and history is meaningless and the stress caused by my obsession of picking a first-round opponent for the Yankees is unnecessary.

I can’t make the Yankees have the best record in the AL and put the Orioles and White Sox in the one-game playoff and then have the Orioles win that game so the Yankees play them. I can’t hope that the Yankees face the Orioles rather than the Rangers, White Sox, Tigers, Angels, A’s, or Rays. However, no matter what I want, it usually plays out the way I want as if I’m the subject of a Matt Christopher book, and it’s not always for the best.

Last year I wanted the Yankees to play the Tigers in the ALDS, just like I did in 2006, and it backfired, just like it did in 2006.

In 2010 and 2009, I wanted the Twins and it worked out.

In 2008, I hated baseball for the summer. I like to pretend that season didn’t happen the way the 2004 playoffs didn’t happen because of the strike. Remember the strike of 2004? That sucked.

In 2007, I wanted the Indians. When Johnny Damon led off the series with a home run, I had the same “This is too easy” feeling I had when the Yankees crushed the Tigers in Game 1 the year before. Chien-Ming Wang made me regret my decision to want the Indians in Games 1 and 4 (Paul Byrd helped me regret the decision in Game 4), and when Joba Chamberlain was sprayed down with bug spray for the midges (which we later found out was the opposite way to handle the midges and was basically the equivalent of jumping into a pool of sharks while holding steaks and having open wounds on your body) while Fausto Carmona/Roberto Hernandez kept pitching like nothing was going on (I think I actually saw him eating some of the midges), I knew the Yankees were effed.

We talked about 2006, so in 2005 I stupidly wanted the Yankees to win the division and they did on the final weekend of the season thanks to the head-to-head tiebreaker. But because of this, they had to face the Angels in the ALDS instead of the White Sox. Now the White Sox did win 99 games, but I think if the Yankees had faced the White Sox, I don’t think they would have lost to Jose Contreras, Mark Buehrle and Freddy Garcia (and an epic relief appearance from El Duque) the way the Red Sox did and I don’t think Ozzie Guillen is still a manager in the league because he wouldn’t have that World Series on his resume, which has to be the only thing keeping him employed. Then again, maybe the Yankees beat the White Sox, but the Red Sox beat the Angels and then beat the Yankees in the ALCS for the second year in a row and I’m off the grid for now almost seven years with no human interaction, or maybe I’m living in Iceland and doing whatever people do in Iceland, which I would think doesn’t involve watching or following baseball.

In 2003 and 2004 I also wanted the Twins and I got them. In case you haven’t noticed, the Yankees haven’t advanced to ALCS against a team not named the Minnesota Twins since 2001 when they came back from down 0-2 against the A’s in the ALDS. (I just checked and the Twins are 12 back in the Central and 10-1/2 games back in the wild card. This isn’t good for the Yankees’ chances of getting to the ALCS.)

Like I said, the amount of time I have spent over the years trying to figure the best possible ALDS matchup for the Yankees has been a complete waste of time. If I had put this much time into actual schoolwork over the years, who knows where I would be right now? Maybe I would be teaching advanced physics at Yale or working as an orthopedic surgeon and living in Greenwich? Instead I’m looking at Ivan Nova’s 2012 game log and wondering how the guy who went 3-0 with a 1.26 ERA in five starts in June has gone 1-4 with a 6.75 ERA in seven starts since July 3, filling A.J. Burnett’s 2010-11 role nicely.

On Monday night, Nova was bad again (5.1 IP, 11 7 R, 7 ER, 0 BB, 5 K, 2 HR) and the Yankees lost to the second-best pitcher on the planet (you’re welcome, King Felix). Justin Verlander turned in an eight-inning, 14-strikeout performance to beat the Yankees for the first time in three starts this season. His effort combined with home runs from Prince Fielder and Miguel Cabrera confirmed that I won’t be pulling to see the Tigers in the ALDS this year.

But if not the Tigers, then who? It’s too hard to say. The second wild card has turned the league into a five-alarm gongshow and there are currently seven teams within five games of a one-game playoff. When you factor in the three division leaders that leaves just four teams (Seattle, Cleveland, Minnesota and Kansas City) whose seasons are actually over. The Yankees could potentially play the Rangers, White Sox, Tigers, Angels, A’s, Orioles, Red Sox or Blue Jays in the ALDS. That means I really have nothing to pull for, wish for or root for. The second wild card has taken the Yankees’ first-round opponent out of my hands even if it’s always been out of my hands.

So since I can’t hope for a team, Verlander’s start on Monday night made me think about which pitchers I don’t want to see in the five-game series. And because Felix Hernandez’s career is being wasted on the Mariners, Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay are in the NL and Colby Lewis is out for the year, I narrowed it down to four starters that I don’t want to see in the ALDS this fall.

(List Spoiler Alert: James Shields and Jered Weaver are NOT on this list. If I need the Yankees to win an elimination game against “Big Game” James who has the most misleading nickname since my friend we call “Big Kinsel,” who is a 5-foot-10, 155-pound Asian, or Jered Weaver, who is a blood relative of Jeff Weaver, I’m more than confident. If the Yankees have to face either of those two pitchers in a must-win game, I’m “Coach Taylor trailing 26-0 at halftime of State” confident in knowing that the Yankees are going to be fine.)

4. Ryan Dempster
I couldn’t even type that with a straight face. OK, let’s be serious…

4. Doug Fister
This isn’t as much about Doug Fister as it is what he represents. Fister is the non-elite starter who possesses the recipe for disaster for the Yankees. He knows how to pitch; he isn’t going to ruin a game unless someone like Al Alburquerque (yes, he’s real, Mike Francesa!) gets called upon to ruin it for him; he isn’t going to maybe have it or maybe not like A.J. Burnett or Max Scherzer; he’s going to keep the Yankees off balance, throw strikes and not hand out free passes. Doug Fister represents Colby Lewis, Tommy Hunter, Paul Byrd, Kenny Rogers and Jeremy Bonderman and all the other starters that have beat the Yankees in the playoffs in recent years that you weren’t worried about losing to before the first pitch.

Find me a Yankees fan that thought the Yankees would lose Game 5 of the 2011 ALDS. When your back’s against the wall in an elimination game on the road with A.J. Burnett on the mound and you escape a bases-loaded jam in the first inning and go on to win to send the series back to the Stadium, you know you’re going to win. I knew the Yankees were going to win.

They didn’t win.

Yes, Fister lost the weird Game 1 at the Stadium last year and got charged with six earned runs, but four of them came on the grand slam that Alburquerque gave up to Robinson Cano. He bounced back in Game 5 of the series at the Stadium in a game no one thought the Yankees could lose. He was forced to throw 92 pitches in five innings, but only allowed one earned run on a two-out solo home run to Cano with the Tigers up 3-0 in the fifth.

Doug Fister reminds me of Cliff Lee. He works deep into games, doesn’t throw hard, has great location, doesn’t walk a lot of people and started to make a run at being an elite starter in his late 20s. When I hear “Doug Fister,” I think “Cliff Lee.” When I see Doug Fister, I think right-handed Cliff Lee. When it’s the playoffs, the last person I ever want to see is Cliff Lee, and that means I don’t want to see Doug Fister. He’s already gone into the Bronx and won when no one thought he could. When you survive an elimination setting in the Stadium, you earn the element of fear from me.

3. Chris Sale
Chris Sale is 23 years old. He has made 19 starts in the majors. He has never thrown a pitch in October. Those three things might make you wonder why he is on this list. These next two things won’t.

Chris Sale throws with his left arm. He has never started a game against the Yankees.

The real No. 1 pitcher on this list should be Any Lefty Pitching Against The Yankees For the First Time or Any Starter Making His MLB Debut, but since that’s not a real person, I couldn’t give the No. 1 spot to a general group of pitchers. Chris Sale is very close to being part of the group.

Sale has actually pitched against the Yankees before, but has never started a game. He has made three relief appearances, pitching 3-1/3 scoreless innings and allowing one hit with two walks and five strikeouts. This year Sale is 13-3 with a 2.59 ERA, 8.3 K/9 and 2.1 BB/9 and 12 of his 20 starts have been six innings or more with two earned runs or less.

Chris Sale means Robinson Cano and Curtis Granderson are less dangerous, Mark Teixeira and Nick Swisher get turned around, Ichiro is less effective and the short porch at the Stadium isn’t the same.

I don’t want to see an elite lefty or someone who doesn’t walk people against the Yankees. That’s Chris Sale.

2. David Price
David Price means Robinson Cano and Curtis Granderson are less dangerous, Mark Teixeira and Nick Swisher get turned around, Ichiro is less effective and the short porch at the Stadium isn’t the same.

I don’t want to see an elite lefty or someone who doesn’t walk people against the Yankees. That’s David Price.

Sorry, I didn’t want to plagiarize myself, but I had to.

Price has made three postseason starts and lost them all. However, those three postseason starts came against the 2010 and 2011 Rangers. His line from those three starts: 19.1 IP, 24 H, 11 R, 10 ER, 1 BB, 17 K. Again, we’re talking about the best offense in baseball in the Rangers, and not the most sporadic offense in baseball (especially in October) in the Yankees.

The Rangers would probably welcome David Price in Game 1 of the playoffs, but a power lefty against the Yankees’ lineup? I’ll pass.

1. Justin Verlander
You would think that after an eight-inning, 14-strikeout performance from the reigning MVP and Cy Young, I would want no part of seeing Verlander for a third time in the playoffs in the ALDS, and you’re right, I don’t. But if it happened I wouldn’t be that worried either. Verlander doesn’t put the fear of God in me the way that Felix or Cliff Lee do, but he’s right there.

In all honesty, I’m not as scared of Justin Verlander as I probably should be. The Yankees have beat him in in two of his three starts against them this season and they rallied to come back against him in Game 3 last year. In 2006, they would have won Game 2 against him if Mike Mussina didn’t cough up the game the way only Mike Mussina could.

I said I wasn’t going to waste anymore time trying to solve the Yankees’ potential ALDS opponent puzzle or trying to worry about pitching matchups and I meant it. The only thing I really need to worry about is whether the middle of the order will hit with runners in scoring position, and that’s not something I can change or something I should spend my summer worrying about. I have October for that.

Tag: Colby Lewis

The Joe Girardi Show: Season 5, Episode 3

Yankees and Rangers Share Identical Situations

Postseason Pitching Fears