Billy Beane – Keefe To The City

Sep 11, 2015

A Seven-Game Yankees-Blue Jays Series for the Division

The Yankees and Blue Jays are separated by 1 1/2 games and over the last 25 games the two teams play each other seven times. One team will win the AL East and the other will play in the one-game playoff.

The Yankees and Blue Jays are separated by 1 1/2 games in the standings and over the last 24 games of the season, the two teams play each other seven times. One team will win the AL East and the other will play in the one-game playoff.

With the Yankees and Blue Jays meeting for a crucial four-game series, Tom Dakers of Bluebird Banter joined me to talk about the Blue Jays’ run since the trade deadline, Josh Donaldson’s incredible MVP campaign, R.A. Dickey’s unbeaten streak, the return of Marcus Stroman and if the Blue Jays will win the East.

Keefe: The last time we talked the Yankees were 62-51 and the Blue Jays were 64-52. I said the two teams were set to begin a seven-week battle for the AL East with the loser going to the one-game playoff. Since then, the Yankees have gone 15-10 and the Blue Jays have gone 15-8.

Over their last 12 games, the Yankees have gone 8-4. Unfortunately, the Blue Jays have also gone 8-4, so the Yankees haven’t made up a single game and still trail the Blue Jays by one game in the loss column.
I understand the Blue Jays are a magical run and have rarely lost since the trade deadline, but this is out of control. Every time I check the Blue Jays score I expect to see them having scored 10 runs and am shocked when they don’t.

Do you believe this run is happening?

Dakers: It has been a fun month and a half. The Jays have been good all season, but their record has been far short of their Pythagorean Record all season, so we hoped that, at some point they, there would be a correction. Well, we got it.

When you look at the team, you do wonder if they will ever lose again, but no matter how good the team, slumps happen. The nice part is, no one guy has to carry the team. In the past, if Bautista and Encarnacion were to slump, we wouldn’t win. Now Donaldson or Tulowitzki or even Chris Colabello can take up the slack.

Adding Price, Tulowitzki, Revere, Hawkins and Lowe added some life to the team, made the team think that they can win every game and well as filling the weak spots on the team. Jose Reyes’ defense was not good enough, he showed little range and had this ability to make an error at the worst possible moment. Tulowitzki’s bat hasn’t been what we hoped, but it’s nice to have a shortstop with real range. And Ben Revere is much better defensively than Chris Colabello in left. David Price gives us the Ace we really needed. And adding Lowe and Hawkins to the pen has given us a nice deep pen.

Keefe: Does Josh Donaldson ever get out? He is hitting .307/.374/.592 this season with 37 home runs and 115 RBIs, but since July 29, he’s hitting .363/.434/.747 with 13 home runs and 47 RBIs in 38 games. He’s slugging .747! That’s insane. What’s even more insane is he is making $4.3 million this season. Stephen Drew is making $5 million.

I have been tweeting at Donaldson and Jose Bautista to remind them the bars in New York City stay open until a 4 a.m. in hopes that they will go on a bender this weekend and not perform well against the Yankees. Maybe they will listen.

What are you going to send Billy Beane to thank him for trading Donaldson to the Blue Jays?

Dakers: He can have my first born, or my right arm or really anything he wants. I have no idea what Beane was thinking. When you have one of the best players in the game, who is still under team control for several more seasons, you don’t trade him. I’ve always thought the way to build a team is to find those guys who are among the best in the game and build around them.

I liked Brett Lawrie, good player, Canadian, fun to watch on defense, but he’ll never be close to as good as Josh. The pitchers we gave up don’t look to be much better than back of the rotation types, so I really don’t understand where Beane thought he was getting fair value for Donaldson.

Add in that Donaldson seem to have the equal intensity to Jose Bautista (something I didn’t think was possible) he’s really helped give the team a “nothing short of winning is acceptable” attitude.

Keefe: The last time R.A. Dickey lost was on July 9 despite giving up two earned runs in seven innings. Since then he is 7-0 with a 2.68 ERA in 11 starts and the Blue Jays are 10-1 in those starts.
It seems like Dickey is finally pitching like the ace the Blue Jays thought he would be even though he no longer needs to be that guy with David Price in the rotation.

Are you impressed with R.A. Dickey this season?

Dakers: He’s had an up and down time of it. In his wins, he’s had an ERA of 2.39, in his losses his ERA is over 6. He seems to be very good or very bad, and there is little in between. He’s followed the same pattern in each of his 3 seasons as a Blue Jay, a poor first half (this year 3-10 with a 4.87 ERA and a good second half (7-0 with a 2.68 ERA).

I came into the season thinking that there was no way the Jays pick up his $12 million option for next season, figuring that, at 41, he’ll be reaching the age that even knuckleball pitchers have a hard time providing value. But if he continues to pitch like this, and we have a bit of a playoff run, they might prove me wrong.

Keefe: Of course Marcus Stroman is coming back to the Blue Jays’ rotation in time to face the Yankees. Why wouldn’t he?

What do you expect out of Stroman?

Dakers: I’m cautiously hopeful. I really didn’t expect him back this yeah but Stroman is someone you should never bet against. He’s got such a strong work ethic. I do imagine he could have a couple of rough starts, he’s only had two rehab starts (well in real games, he had some simulated games too), one very good, one not so good. In a perfect world, I’d like to see him get a couple more rehab starts, but then the minor league seasons are ending (and there isn’t all that much major league season left) so he gets thrown out there quicker than we would like.

The good news is that it was a knee injury, so he kept his throwing arm in shape all along. He’s been throwing hard in this rehab starts. I think, by playoff time, he’ll be the Marcus Stroman we saw last season. It is just a question of how quickly he gets there.

Keefe: If the Blue Jays win the AL East, what is your ALDS rotation?

For me it would be Price, Dickey, hopefully Stroman and Buehrle. If Stroman doesn’t prove ready, then move Buehrle up and put Marco Estrada in the 4-spot.

Keefe: And if they have to play in the one-game playoff, I’m guessing you’re going with David Price. But let’s say he’s unavailable, who do you turn to?

Dakers: If Dickey keeps pitching the way he is right now, it would have to be him. He’s averaged over 7 innings a start, his last three times out there, and has an ERA of just 2.08. But then, Marcus Stroman has a month to show that he’s as good as last year, if he can do that, it the job might be his.

But, I think he idea of trading for Price as to have him make a one-game playoff start. I’d hope they will make sure that he is ready for the game.

The Yankees Are Getting the A’s at the Right Time

The Yankees are headed to the West Coast for a seven-game road trip and it starts with a four-game series in Oakland where the A’s are in last place.

The last six games are a good indication of the 2015 Yankees as they were swept at home by the Rangers and then swept what might be the best team in baseball in the Royals the following three days. After being nine games over .500 and erasing that in two weeks, the Yankees appear to be back on track and are headed to Oakland at the best possible time.

With the Yankees and A’s meeting for the first time this season, Alex Hall of Athletics Nation joined me to talk about what happened down the stretch to the A’s last year, the trades for Jon Lester and Jeff Samardzija and what’s gone wrong for the A’s to start this season.

Keefe: Last year in our email exchange, I asked you this:

When it comes to the A’s, what are the year-end expectations, especially after the team’s resurgence the last few years? Is just making the postseason enough for you, or are you tired of “just” making the postseason?

You answered with this:

This team is built to win right now and has actually mortgaged a little bit of its future to do so, and a failure to bring home a title, much less a league pennant, would be severely disappointing.

The A’s ended up blowing their AL West lead, settled for the second wild-card spot and then blew a late lead in that game to the Royals. Along the way there, they crushed the trade deadline and sacrificed potential future stars for Jon Lester and Jeff Samardzija, and neither of them are on the A’s this year. (We’ll get to that in a little.)

How disappointing was the finish to the 2014 season?

Hall: It was almost a worst-case scenario. The new pitchers helped a lot and the A’s probably wouldn’t even have made it to the wild-card game at all without them, but the rest of the team just fell apart. With the exceptions of Josh Donaldson, Josh Reddick, and Eric Sogard, the entire lineup either got hurt and stopped hitting or got hurt and just went on the DL. Meanwhile, the starting pitching was always just good enough to not win and the bullpen continued to be lights-out right up until it was time to seal a save. Everything that could go wrong did.

The wild-card game was much the same — two A’s left with injuries, including the catcher who was there specifically to halt the Royals’ running game, and they ended up losing one of the most heartbreaking games in MLB history despite scoring seven runs. The only way it would have been worse would have been finishing one game lower in the standings and missing the wild-card game completely — even a heartbreaking loss is better than not making it at all.

Keefe: I was ecstatic when the A’s traded for Jon Lester and took Boston’s homegrown ace in the middle of another last-place season for the Red Sox. Red Sox fans stupidly thought they would just end up re-signing Lester in the offseason and that it was just more of a loan to Oakland and that in 2015 they would have Lester back and have Yoenis Cespedes in the lineup, but they don’t have either player now.

That trade seemed to change the A’s offense down the stretch of the season and they were never really the same team after it. Cespedes had been a middle-of-the-order presence and had helped them climb to first place and distance themselves from the rest of the division, and was maybe a bigger part of the A’s than Billy Beane had thought.

Were you on board with that trade at the time? Do you think it destroyed the offense?

Hall: I will say that I wasn’t into the idea of trading for Lester before it happened. I wanted to roll the dice with the guys who had brought us to the top of the MLB standings. And there wasn’t a single person in Oakland who didn’t get sick when they woke up to hear that Cespedes was gone — he was massively popular here, as he will be wherever he plays. However, from a statistical standpoint, it did make logical sense to deal from an area of strength (offense) to beef up a weakness (thin rotation).

Even though I would not have made the trade, and even though I would undo it if I could go back in time, I still just don’t think it made any difference in the end. Losing Cespedes is not what destroyed the offense. That was accomplished when Brandon Moss’ hip turned to mush, when John Jaso got concussed, when Jed Lowrie missed time, when Stephen Vogt’s foot injury sapped his hitting, when Derek Norris wore down, when Coco Crisp’s neck injury knocked him in and out of the order, when Alberto Callaspo was an everyday player and even a DH, when Jonny Gomes failed to hit even one homer, when Craig Gentry got concussed, and when Adam Dunn OPS’ed .634 as an emergency replacement. The lineup was a juggernaut in the first half, and losing one guy did not destroy it — especially considering that, by the numbers, Cespedes was only the third-best hitter on the team after Donaldson and Moss. Losing him was one part of a larger puzzle, and it certainly didn’t help the offense when he left, but it took a lot more than that one loss to completely tank the entire unit.

Keefe: The A’s also traded for Jeff Samardzija last summer and had to give up Addison Russell to get him, who now looks to be the future of the middle infield for the Cubs. Then this past offseason, the A’s traded Samardzija to the White Sox to replenish their roster and try to salvage what was the lost in the trade for Cubs knowing that they wouldn’t pay Samardzija at the end of this season anyway.

Are you devastated that Russell was dealt last season knowing his potential?

Hall: It’s tough to see him begin to blossom so quickly in Chicago, but I’ve come to peace with that trade. I am 100 percent certain that the A’s season would have been even more disappointing if they hadn’t acquired a pitcher, and at the time it looked like the early bird might be the only one to get a worm. Plus, getting your guy in early July means you get an extra month of production out of your rental. It’s easy to look back now and say that Billy Beane should have waited longer for the market to develop, and I’ll admit that before the trade I was not interested in Shark nor Hammel, but it’s also true that Shark pitched like a legitimate ace in Oakland and so at least Beane got his money’s worth in that sense. He got what he was looking for in the trade, it just wasn’t enough.

On the other side, Shark was turned into four players from the White Sox. None of them are as good as Russell could be, but at least there is something left to show for him. If he builds on this promising start and becomes an All-Star then that will be a big bummer for A’s fans, but that’s the price of business if you want to take a big-time gamble for the big prize.

Keefe: Sorry to make you feel bad and harp on the end of the 2014 season (feel free to ask me about the 2013 and 2014 Yankees), but let’s talk about this year A’s team, which has gotten off to a horrific start, is 15 games under .500 and 13 1/2 games back in the West.

What has happened to the A’s team that was at times the best team in baseball over the last three years? Is there anything to feel good about right now other than Sonny Gray?

Hall; This has been a frustrating year to watch because the A’s have been playing pretty well but don’t have the wins to show for it. The rotation is among the best in baseball, and the lineup has been solid despite losing Coco and missing Ben Zobrist for a month. But the defense has been horrendous and the bullpen has been even worse, and every day they come oh-so-close to winning and then fall short in a new and amazing way.

The A’s are 2-15 in one-run games, and that kind of futility goes beyond a lack of skill or “clutch”-ness and into the realm of rotten luck. If the starting pitcher is good, then the lineup gets shut out. If the lineup scores, then the defense makes a major error. If the defense holds up, then the bullpen blows it with a big homer. It feels like flipping a coin and getting tails every time, and knowing that one of these days it’ll come up heads … but will it be tomorrow, next week, or next year?

Keefe: The A’s won the West in 2012 and 2013 and reached the playoffs as a wild-card team last year. It was the first time the team had made the playoffs in three straight seasons since they went to the playoffs in four straight from 2000-2003.

It seems like the window of opportunity for the A’s it always is so small and right when they are about to get over the hump, it closes and then it’s rebuilding mode again. After 94-, 96- and 88-win seasons over the last three years and now a 17-32 start, it looks like it’s rebuilding mode again.

What were your expectations for the A’s this season coming off three straight postseason appearances and what are they now after nearly two months of baseball?

Hall: The A’s looked like they were aiming for the playoffs again, but their sights weren’t set as hard on that goal as in the last couple years. They were willing to make a couple of win-now moves, but only after selling high on a lot of big names. This was a team with solid-but-not-huge playoff dreams, and while it’s shocking to see them lose this much it’s not like anyone was guaranteeing a postseason berth.

The A’s are still loaded with a lot of good players, and I’ve seen a lot of unlikely runs both from Oakland and from other teams in the last 15 years. I haven’t given up on the season, but I do realize that the chances of a comeback are slim and shrinking by the day. Realistically, the rest of this season should be seen as an audition for young players like Jesse Hahn, Kendall Graveman, Billy Burns, and Marcus Semien. On the other hand, big performances from those players would also be the path to the postseason, so one way or other my expectations are just to hope for the best from everyone and see what happens. Sonny Gray is pitching like he has Cy Young aspirations, so that will be something to watch regardless of the team’s record.

Oakland has a few pending free agents, so if they don’t turn things around more or less immediately then they could be sellers. But Zobrist already missed a month, Scott Kazmir just left his last start with shoulder soreness, and Tyler Clippard hasn’t had a chance to rack up many saves — it’s tough to say if the A’s could even get any good deals for those guys, or if they should hold onto them, hand out qualifying offers and see if they can retain any of them on one-year deals (or get draft picks as compensation).

The A’s Have a Team Built for the Bronx

The A’s have been rolling along all season with the combination of starting pitching and power hitting the Yankees have always had and will need to contend this season.

After the Yankees finished their nine-game road trip with four wins in their final five games, it looked like they might finally be ready to go on a run as the calendar turned to June with a seven-game homestand. But after losing two of three to the Twins and then their makeup game against the Mariners, that run never happened. And things don’t get easier with the A’s, the best all-around team in the American League coming to the Bronx for three games.

With the Yankees and A’s meeting at the Stadium this week, Alex Hall of Athletics Nation joined me to talk about how the A’s keep producing front-end starting pitchers, if A’s fans are tired of just making the playoffs and what it’s been like over the years to see star players forced to leave due to finances.

Keefe: Right now the Yankees’ rotation is Masahiro Tanaka, Hiroki Kuroda, Vidal Nuno, David Phelps and Chase Whitley. That’s the New York Yankees. With Ivan Nova lost for the season, Michael Pineda suspended and then injured and CC Sabathia on the disabled list, the Yankees are trotting out a rotation that has me longing for the days of the 2008 when Darrell Rasner and Sidney Ponson were 40 percent of the rotation after Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy were injured. Or the days of 2007 when Brian Cashman opened the season relying on Carl Pavano and Kei Igawa in the rotation. On the days that Tanaka doesn’t pitch, I have treated any Yankees win like a division-clinching win in September.

Why am I venting about my team’s rotation problems to you, an A’s fan, who is enjoying first place in the AL West? Because it seems like whenever the A’s have a pitching problem they just call up someone who suddenly becomes ace-worthy as if pitching injuries don’t even matter to the organization. What’s it like knowing that if someone in the rotation goes down, there is someone else ready to seamlessly fill in? Let me know so I can live vicariously through A’s fans.

Hall: It is a very liberating feeling, I must say! Billy Beane and his staff seem to press all the right buttons when it comes to pitching, both by turning unknown or undervalued players into stars and by knowing when to quickly pull the plug on experiments that aren’t working out. They also put themselves into a position to succeed by stocking extra depth — you never know when injuries will happen, but you can prepare yourself with a backup plan for when they do.

That depth came in handy this year when Jarrod Parker and A.J. Griffin both went down in spring training. The A’s had Tommy Milone waiting in reserve, and Jesse Chavez fighting for a spot, and the two of them have been fantastic. When Dan Straily faltered, Drew Pomeranz stepped in; while his low ERA is unsustainable, he at least looks like a league-average starter and he still has upside as he re-adjusts to starting once again. The only thing that worries me with this rotation is its durability — outside of Milone, no one is a good bet to throw 200 innings without wearing down.

Keefe: Because the A’s are the A’s and play in an odd stadium in an odd location and don’t have much money and can’t retain free agents, it’s astonishing to me when they have the type of success they are having now or had last year or the year before, the way it was at the beginning of the 2000s. But I’m guessing for A’s fan the success isn’t so surprising and would like to be met with postseason success.

Here in New York, I grew up in the 90s in the height of the Yankees’ dynasty and since I was nine years old all I have known is October baseball and winning. Yes, I have been spoiled and have seen enough success over the last 18 years to last a lifetime, but now it’s expected every year and when it doesn’t happen it’s disappointing.

When it comes to the A’s, what are the year-end expectations, especially after the team’s resurgence the last few years? Is just making the postseason enough for you, or are you tired of “just” making the postseason?

Hall: In 2012, it was cool just to make the playoffs. The team hadn’t been good for awhile and wasn’t supposed to compete entering the season, so it was exciting to be alive in October. In 2013, repeating the postseason berth and proving it wasn’t a fluke was still satisfying, but it stung a little more when the team was eliminated in uncannily similar fashion to the previous year. This time around, nothing short of a trip to the World Series will feel like a successful season to me, and I think a lot of A’s fans would echo that sentiment. This team is built to win right now and has actually mortgaged a little bit of its future to do so, and a failure to bring home a title, much less a league pennant, would be severely disappointing.

Keefe: I really have no idea how the A’s have been able to put together the run they have over the last few years even with great starting pitching. When I look at the roster and I see former Red Sox like Coco Crisp, Josh Reddick, Brandon Moss and Jed Lowrie playing important roles for not only a first-place team, but maybe the best team in all of baseball, it hurts my head to think about. How do the A’s win with a questionable lineup on paper aside from really only Yoenis Cespedes and Josh Donaldson? And can you please forward your answer to Brian Cashman. One second and I will get you his email address.

Rather than sink too many resources into a couple of star players, the A’s prefer to find a good, solid player for every position so that there are no weaknesses in the lineup. In addition, manager Bob Melvin is a master at putting his players in the best possible positions to succeed, most notably with his aggressive use of platoons. In that way, the whole can come out greater than the sum of the parts — each player fits into the greater scheme of things and complements his teammates well.

Hall: Of course, it helps to have Josh Donaldson in your lineup. Donaldson has been the hands-down MVP of the American League so far — he leads the league in both versions of WAR, he’s a top-five hitter, and he might be the best defender in the AL at any position. The rest of the lineup has a ton of power, gets on base more than any team in baseball (read: makes outs at a lower rate), and gets into bullpens quickly by running up opponents’ pitch counts with patient at-bats. There aren’t a lot of big-name hitters, but the Big Green Machine leads MLB in scoring.

Keefe: This offseason when Robinson Cano left via free agency for Seattle and $240 million it was the first time I watched the Yankees get outbid by another team and lose a star player to the system they helped create and then dominate. I didn’t like the idea of lowballing Cano and then using the additional money he could have been offered on Jacoby Ellsbury and Carlos Beltran since the Yankees didn’t need Ellsbury and Beltran seemed like a luxury and throw-in by the front office to give the fans a “new toy” for the season before the Masahiro Tanaka signing happened.

You have had to deal with superstars on the A’s leaving through free agency for more money over the years and have had to watch impending free agents get traded off before they hit the market for prospects and lesser names to stay under budget. Has it been frustrating to watch the team continually build for the future and be forced to lose star players, or was it all worth it now that the A’s are back to competing for a championship each year?

Hall: On the contrary, it’s kind of exciting. Every year is different, and you never know what to expect other than the fact that Billy Beane will be trying his hardest to win. He never punts a season, evidenced by the fact that he’s never had a team lose 90 games, which means that any year could be the year that everything clicks and the club rises back to contention. In this case, that year was 2012, and we’re still riding the wave. Of course, the flip side of that is that everything can come crashing down in an instant. A couple of key injuries, a bit of regression, and suddenly the team is on the outside looking in. I do sometimes envy big-market teams who can afford to keep fan favorites around for 10 or 15 years and truly have them as their own, but being an A’s fan feels like being on the cutting edge of baseball history. Where Oakland goes, the sport tends to follow.

Keefe: Before the season, I’m sure you expected the A’s to compete for the West again and return to the postseason after the last two seasons, and why wouldn’t you? But what were your preseason expectations? And after watching the team now for two months, have your preseason expectations changed now that you have seen what the team is capable of?

Hall: Certainly, I expected the A’s to win the West again. However, I was expecting another tough battle with Texas and the Angels, and that expectation hasn’t changed. The A’s have gone nuts so far and built themselves a nice cushion, but fortunes can change quickly and you can never take anything for granted in this sport. The Rangers have watched half their team get injured, and the Angels have watched some key stars begin their declines earlier than expected. But Texas isn’t out of it and the Angels have fully bounced back from last year’s disaster. The A’s are the hot team right now, but this race isn’t over.

Tag: Billy Beane

A Seven-Game Yankees-Blue Jays Series for the Division

The Yankees Are Getting the A’s at the Right Time

The A’s Have a Team Built for the Bronx