Bill Belichick – Page 2 – Keefe To The City

Sep 4, 2014

NFL Week 1 Picks

Last season, the Makeshift Yankees got me to September and got me to the Giants. Unfortunately, the Giants couldn’t even make it through September to get me to the Rangers by going winless through September

Last season, the Makeshift Yankees got me to September and got me to the Giants. Unfortunately, the Giants couldn’t even make it through September to get me to the Rangers by going winless through September and half of October. Yes, the Giants fought back to give me a meaningful game on the Sunday before Thanksgiving in Week 12, but they blew that game and blew a gift from the Football Gods, who gave them a chance to take over the NFC East lead and a chance at the playoffs despite starting the season 0-6.

This season, the Yankees got me to the Giants (barely) and are still somewhat going even if they need to go like 25-0 the rest of the way to make the playoffs. The Giants, though, might not get me to the Rangers again, judging by their preseason offense and all of the questions surrounding a team that seems to be headed in the wrong direction. But not even the thought of Eli throwing another 27 interceptions can get me down today because it’s the start of the football season.

The first day of football season means the first day of picks, doing longhand addition on the back of bills to create wild parlays, figuring out how to track four fantasy teams without getting the “Stop running this script?” message on a computer, freaking out over a suicide pool in the fourth quarter of the first week, searching for some overseas site that has every NFL game available to watch if you just answer some survey questions, drinking excessive amounts of beer and eating foods that contain little to no nutritional value.

Football is back in my life and so are the New York Football Giants.

When I last left off with the Giants, they won their season finale over the Redskins in front of one of the most embarrassing Week 17 home crowds the Giants have likely ever seen. But when I really left off with the Giants was when they were blowing that Week 12 game against the Cowboys, because after that, the final five weeks of the season were just a formality.

After the Giants won Super Bowl XLII, Plaxico Burress ruined what should have been the next NFL dynasty and the Giants lost their only playoff game in 2008. They missed the playoffs completely in 2009 and 2010 thanks to back-to-back second-half collapses before winning the Super Bowl in 2011. Now they have gone back-to-back years without a trip to the playoffs once again and all I can think is maybe there’s a pattern there.

Football is back and that means so are the weekly picks.

(Home team in caps)

Green Bay +6 over SEATTLE
The Seahawks are going to win on Thursday night because they don’t lose in Seattle and they certainly about to start losing at home on the same night they are raising a Super Bowl banner in their first home game since becoming champions. However, Aaron Rodgers is as healthy as he’s going to be for the next four months and that’s enough for the Packers to cover.

ATLANTA +3 over New Orleans
Here are the last five Saints-Falcons games in Atlanta:

2013 – Week 12: NO 17, ATL 13
2012 – Week 13: ATL 23, NO 13
2011 – Week 10: NO 26, ATL 23 OT
2010 – Week 9: NO 17, ATL 14
2009 – Week 14: NO 26, ATL 23

The Saints have won four of the last five games in Atlanta and all of their wins have been by four points or less. The only Falcons win in there came in a 13-3 season, which should have resulted in Super Bowl appearance if they didn’t blow a 17-point lead in the NFC Championship Game and cost me my 10-to-1 Falcons-Ravens parlay that Sunday. I know how different the Saints are outside of the Superdome, but the Georgia Dome is still a dome and you would think they would play at least near their Superdome abilities, but they were barely able to get by the miserable 2013 Falcons last year with a four-point win. I have been burned too many times by the Saints on the road in the past even if they have been successful of late in Atlanta, and I’m still not over their loss in New England last year.

Minnesota +3.5 over ST. LOUIS
I had to do a double take when I saw this line to make sure I wasn’t reading it backwards or that it hadn’t been posted wrong.

I’m petrified at the thought of picking against Shaun Hill because when he was on the 49ers he cost me a lot of picks. A LOT of picks. I don’t care that Hill is 34 years old and has only attempted 16 passes in the last three years. He could be 56 years old and coming out of a 20-year retirement and starting in this game and I wouldn’t feel comfortable. But it’s time to start collecting on my past losses against Hill and it starts this week.

Cleveland +7 over PITTSBURGH
I’m not sure who told a bigger lie on Wednesday: Wes Welker saying someone slipped something into his drink to produce his positive Molly test or Mike Pettine saying “We’re not going to have a quick hook” when it comes to Brian Hoyer. It’s hard to take Welker at his word when you consider that he looked like this at the Kentucky Derby and that Tom Brady laughed like this when asked if he saw Welker taking anything at the Derby. Brady’s laugh could have meant “Haha, yeah, I’m going to say I watched my suspended friend do drugs,” since that would go over real well for one of the faces of football and for every anti-drug Tom Brady fan on the planet. Or it could have meant “Haha, obviously I watched my friend take drugs because we were partying at the Kentucky Derby.” I think it meant both.

Brian Hoyer is virtually an unknown, having started just two NFL games, and Johnny Manziel is also an unknown having never played one second in the NFL. The difference is that Johnny Football is the new Tim Tebow if Tim Tebow had Manziel’s quarterback abilities. In Week 1 in 2011, it didn’t take Mile High long to start a Rudy-like chant asking for Tebow to play and three weeks later they got their wish when Tebow became the starter. Cleveland has had one winning season in the last 11 years and have made the playoffs once (2002) since returning to the NFL in 1999. It’s going to take a lot less and a lot less time for Browns fans to turn on Hoyer and call for Johnny Football and once those chants start, there’s no stopping them and certainly not a first-year head coach in a job he wasn’t the first choice for. The only reason Manziel isn’t starting is because it’s easier for Pettine to bench Hoyer than it is Manziel.

No one believes Welker and no one believes Pettine.

PHILADELPHIA -11 over Jacksonville
Here are Philadelphia’s last three season-opening opponents: Washington, Cleveland and St. Louis. Apparently things weren’t easy enough for the Eagles to get their seasons rolling with three straight 1-0 starts, so the NFL schedule makers gave them the Jaguars to kick off 2014. So when the Eagles hang 40-something points on the Jaguars on Sunday and for the next week we are forced to hear about how Chip Kelly is a genius and the Eagles’ offense is unstoppable and every trash site that create lists about the “Best” this and “Top” that for content start to compare Nick Foles to all-time greats and the Eagles’ offense to the 2013 Broncos or 2007 Patriots, it will be the NFL schedule makers’ fault. Eff you, NFL schedule makers. Eff you.

NEW YORK JETS -5.5 over Oakland
Here is the Jets’ schedule for their next six games after the Raiders: at Green Bay, Chicago, Detroit, at San Diego, Denver, at New England.

The Jets could easily lose all six of those games, but even if they don’t lose all six of them, it’s going to be very, very hard for them to go even .500 during the gauntlet. The Jets know this and know that if they have any hopes of staying in the playoff hunt through October they HAVE to beat Oakland. And even if they didn’t know this, there’s nothing the Raiders can do about it anyway.

Cincinnati +1.5 over BALTIMORE
Ravens-Bengals seems like it’s becoming what Ravens-Steelers was for so long. And if that’s the case, then I have to go with what I write for every Ravens-Steelers pick:

This game will be decided by three points. And when you know that, how can you not take the points?

CHICAGO -7 over Buffalo
Here is what I said about the Bears in my 2013 NFL Week 1 Picks:

The Bears are the closest things to the Giants in the NFL when you look at their talent and ability to completely destroy a playoff-bound season.

Here is what I said about the Bills in my 2013 NFL Week 1 Picks:

Bills fans don’t like when anyone talks poorly about them or picks against them (even when a spread is involved), but even a Bills fan with the Bills logo tattooed on his neck (someone like this has to exist) or a Bills fan with the Bills logo tattooed on his bald head (someone like this also has to exist) would tell you that the 2013 season is going to be fine.

Both things held true as the Bears blew their season and the Bills were what the Bills have been for basically my entire life. This game and line does feel too good to be true and whenever a game feels too good to be true, it usually is.

HOUSTON -3 over Washington
I want the Redskins to fail, so that when it comes time for Giants-Redskins on Thursday Night Football in Week 4, I can talk to my friend Ray, the biggest Redskins fan I know, and have him in a serious depression.

KANSAS CITY -4 over Tennessee
This line feels low. This game also feels like the one where I’m going to be thinking “Why didn’t I just take the points?” before halftime.

New England -5 over MIAMI
I wanted to take the Dolphins here. I really, really, really wanted to take the Dolphins here. But then I thought about flipping around between games on Sunday at 1:12 p.m. and flipping back to Patriots-Dolphins just in time to see CBS cutting to commercial with their NFL theme music playing and a shot of Tom Brady and Bill Belichick talking on the sidelines as a graphic appears on the screen that says New England 7, Dolphins 0, 13:54, 1st QTR. That exact situation has played out many times and I have tried to avoid being on the wrong end of it.

Carolina +2.5 over TAMPA BAY
I was initially confused about this line because the Panthers went 11-1 after a 1-3 start last season and the Buccaneers became the most dysfunctional team in a league that still has the Raiders. So when I saw the Panthers were 2.5-point underdogs with Cam Newton playing with a hairline fracture in his ribs, I was skeptical and still am. It seems like Vegas is joining the Tampa Bay bandwagon along with a lot of the football world and at least for one week they have me on board, but I’m sitting coach and next to the emergency exit for when I inevitably jump off for Week 2.

San Francisco -5 over DALLAS
If you saw the Cowboys roster and it was listed as the roster for “Team X” and Team X didn’t happen to be a national team with a heavy gambling presence, this line would be a lot higher than 5 for one of the NFL’s elite teams on the road against a team that’s headed for a six- or seven-win season. And I’m going to cherish every minute of the Cowboys’ inevitable miserable season.

DENVER -7.5 over Indianapolis
I honestly believe Peyton Manning has every single play for the entire first quarter already scripted out. If the script comes relatively close to the way it went at home last year for the Broncos then this pick will be fine.

New York Giants +6 over DETROIT
I originally saw this line at DETROIT -3.5 and now it’s moved 2 1/2 points to 6 as everyone watched the Giants’ first offensive team struggle to produce any kind of offense in five preseason games. But even with their struggles as long as Kevin Gilbride doesn’t have a direct connection into Eli Manning’s helmet to tell him to run a draw play on third-and-7 from the opponent’s 47-yard line then I like the Giants’ chances not only to cover in this season-opening game, but all season. (And it’s Week 1, of course I’m not picking against the Giants.)

ARIZONA -3 over San Diego
Maybe one day I won’t be so anti-San Diego and pick against them at any opportunity I get, but that day isn’t today in Week 1.

Blogs

Dec 24, 2013

My Christmas Wish List

I won’t be getting playoff football this year, so that means I will have to ask for some other things this Christmas.

When I put together my Christmas list for this year, I didn’t bother to ask for anything to do with the New York Football Giants. At 6-9, their season has been lost since their Week 12 loss to the Cowboys and this season marks the fourth time in five years the Giants won’t play in the postseason.

After reaching the playoffs in each of the first four years of Eli Manning’s career as the full-time starting quarterback (2005-08), the Giants’ lone playoff trip since their loss in the 2008 divisional round as the No. 1 seed was in 2011 when they won the Super Bowl. I’m very grateful for the two Super Bowls since 2007 and that Eli Manning and Tom Coughlin prevented Tom Brady and Bill Belichick from being 5-0 in the Super Bowl and football immortality as the best quarterback-coach combination in history. But at this time of the year with the Cowboys and Eagles playing for the NFC East title and the Bears, Packers, Panthers, Saints, Seahawks, 49ers, Cardinals, Patriots, Dolphins, Bengals, Ravens, Steelers, Colts, Broncos, Chiefs and Chargers all playing for something this Sunday, it’s not fun being on the outside looking in.

Yes, it’s another Week 17 of wondering what could have been, but I’m not going to let the Giants ruin Christmas since they already ruined October and November (the Yankees ruined September). And if I can’t have playoff football this year, which I can’t, then this is what I want.

Something That Resembles A Starting Rotation That Can Compete In the AL East
If it seems like I have asked for that before, it’s because I have. Back in 2010, I asked for the same exact thing after the Yankees lost out on Cliff Lee and I was staring at a potential rotation of CC Sabathia, Phil Hughes, A.J. Burnett, Ivan Nova and at the time no one else. (That’s right, Phil Hughes, coming off an 18-win season, was going to be the Yankees’ No. 2 starter.) Thankfully Bartolo Colon decided to get some “help” and Freddy Garcia reinvented himself and the Yankees won 97 games and the AL East before the heart of the order went missing in a five-game series loss to the Tigers in the ALDS.

So far this offseason the Yankees have signed Jacoby Ellsbury, Brian McCann, Carlos Beltran and Brian Roberts and lost Robinson Cano to the Mariners. The November 2013 Yankees are better than the September 2013 Yankees were and are better in theory than the 2013 Yankees were ever going to be at their healthiest point. But the rotation is still a problem just like it was at this time last year and the year before that.

The best free-agent options for the rotation are Matt Garza, Ervin Santana, Ubaldo Jimenez, Bronson Arroyo, Paul Maholm and …. wait for it …. wait for it …. wait for it … A.J. Burnett! The only one of these six options I would be OK with would be Garza, but even then he’s going to command (and receive) a ridiculous contract in this market for someone who has a career .500 record (67-67), a 3.84 ERA and has started only 42 games over the last two years.

Brian Cashman said going into this winter that he was going to have to find 400 innings from somewhere and I don’t think the Yankees are going to sign one of the “top” free agents just because they are the best available right now like they would have in the past with Carl Pavano or Jaret Wright or Burnett. That means that “somewhere” will likely be from within the organization and some combination of the current favorites Michael Pineda, David Phelps and Adam Warren. Unless, the Yankees can give me the next thing on my list …

Cliff Lee
Yes, three years later I’m still asking for Cliff Lee. I don’t need to explain it. Just read this. But since Lee isn’t exactly realistic, I will ask for someone who is …

Masahiro Tanaka
I know nothing about Masahiro Tanaka other than from searching “Masahiro Tanaka” on YouTube and watching a video titled “Best of Mashahiro Tanaka” that is synced to what sounds like nearly four minutes of an instrumental version of a song by The Offspring. But I’m going to guess that the only knowledge most North American “experts” who talk about how good Tanaka is happens to be this same exact video. No one knows for sure how Tanaka’s Japanese success will translate to the majors and given the history of highly coveted Japanese pitchers coming to North America, there’s a better chance that Tanaka will be more like Daisuke Matsuzaka than Yu Darvish. But as long as he’s not Kei Igawa (I haven’t typed that name in so long), I’ll take him.

2013-14 Henrik Lundqvist To Be 2011-12 Henrik Lundqvist
Since signing his seven-year extension, Henrik Lundqvist is 2-4-2. I’m not sure if you want your franchise player, who you recently locked up through 2020-21 to be saying he “kind of expected” that a rookie backup would be starting in place of him for the second consecutive game and night. And after recording two wins and allowing just two goals combined in 48 hours, I’m not sure that Alain Vigneault is necessarily going to go back to Lundqvist over Cam Talbot on Friday night in Washington.

Lundqvist has admitted to over-anticipating plays and being jumpy and it has shown this season. While it’s hard to fault him for a five-goal loss to the Islanders on Friday night when you consider they were getting shorthanded breakaways and odd-man rushes left and right, he isn’t bailing out the team that way he used to. And because Lundqvist isn’t bailing out his team the way he used to, it brings me to the next thing I’m asking for …

A New Rangers Defense
I asked for this last because this is going to be the most unrealistic of them all. It would be like asking for Xbox One and PlayStation 4 this year.

Since 2008-09, the Rangers’ problem has been scoring goals, but now with Lundvist struggling and having a down year so far, preventing goals is even more of a problem. And if Lundqvist is going to be more human-like than King-like this season, the Rangers aren’t going anywhere because they don’t have the defense (especially with Marc Staal injured) many thought they did. Through the first 46 percent of the season, Lundqvist hasn’t been bailing out the incompetence of the Rangers defense the way he has through his entire career. But rather than focus on his entire career, let’s focus on since 2011-12 when the current Rangers defensive core started to become the foundation of the defense.

We all know that I don’t think the 2011-12 Rangers were worthy of the Eastern Conference’s No. 1 seed or as close as “two wins away from the Stanley Cup Final” as they technically were. They earned the top seed and won two series in Game 7 before losing the Devils in six because of Henrik Lundqvist. Not because of their offense and certainly not because of their defense. Lundqvist made everyone believe Dan Girardi was an All-Star and that Michael Del Zotto could be trusted in his own zone the same way Sidney Crosby has made everyone believe Chris Kunitz is some kind of superstar despite his career season-high in goals being 26 and now as a linemate of Number 87, he has 20 goals in just 39 games.

Prior to Lundqvist signing an extension, there was a worrying sense that overpaying Lundqvist would cost the Rangers a chance at re-signing Girardi this offseason. But right now I’m not sure anyone would want to sign Girardi. When he’s not falling down or giving the puck away, he’s busy scoring goals against his team, a stat which he must lead the league in by at least 15.

As for Del Zotto, it’s pretty obvious his time with the Rangers is dwindling. When the Rangers beat the Maple Leafs on Monday night at the Garden, I watched Del Zotto intently as the Rangers saluted from center ice and wondered if Del Zotto was thinking it could be one of the last times he would salute the MSG crowd. If it is, the Rangers will be a better team.

Merry Christmas!

Blogs • Giants • NFL

Sep 5, 2013

NFL Week 1 Picks

The NFL is back and so are the weekly picks. Let’s get the 2013 season started off on the right foot with the Week 1 picks.

Labor Day is the ultimate Catch-22. The summer is over and the days get shorter as baseball starts to come to an end. But the temperatures get more reasonable, baseball pennant races pick up with hockey just around the corner and it’s the start of football season. The last thing there, “the start of football season,” is the one thing that keeps me from staying in bed, putting my Cliff Lee Sad Song Playlist on repeat and just waiting for the first nice day of spring, especially after a summer in which the Yankees have put themselves in a position where they have to win nearly every game in September.

The first day of football season means the first day of picks, doing longhand addition on the back of bills to create wild parlays, figuring out how to track four fantasy teams without getting the “Stop running this script?” message on a computer, freaking out over a suicide pool in the fourth quarter of the first week, searching for some overseas site that has every NFL game available to watch if you just answer some survey questions, drinking excessive amounts of beer and eating foods that contain little to no nutritional value.

Football is back in my life and so are the New York Football Giants.

When I last left off with the Giants, they decided to try and save their season in Week 17 against the Eagles when their season was already over. The embarrassment of another second-half collapse and destruction of a 6-2 record completed by the blowouts at the hands of the Falcons and Ravens in Weeks 15 and 16 made me happy that football was going away for eight months. But it’s been a long eight months of wondering “What could have been?” had the Giants not gone into the same freefall they have gone into every season during the Tom Coughlin era with the exception of the two Super Bowl winning seasons. But when Carrie Underwood leads us into Al Michaels and Cris Collinsworth and the Giants and Cowboys kick off in the Big D on Sunday night, the bad memories of how the 2012 season ended will be erased (but not forgotten) and the hopes of playing in the last game of the football season will begin.

Football is back and that means so are the weekly picks.

Week 1 … let’s go!

(Home team in caps)

Baltimore +7.5 over DENVER
Week 1 is so hard to pick because there is nothing to go off of except what you remember from last season and everything you have been told and force fed in the offseason and possibly some preseason action if you actually watch preseason football. The only thing harder than Week 1 is Week 2 when all you have to go off is what you saw in Week 1, which could be completely off.

The defending Super Bowl champions are on the road to open the season because the Orioles are hosting the White Sox across the street from M&T Bank Stadium. That’s right, the fading Orioles are playing the 56-82 White Sox, so Ravens fans will have to celebrate their championship for the last time by watching on NBC or by spending thousands of dollars to travel to Denver for the game.

Last season the Ravens lost to the Broncos, 34-17, in Week 15 before beating them in two overtimes in the divisional round of the playoffs thanks to a 70-yard touchdown with 31 seconds left in the game and some terrible coaching and decision making form the Broncos.

So why are the Broncos giving over a touchdown at home on Opening Night to the defending champions? I’m not sure.

New England -10.5 over BUFFALO
Just for fun I took a look at the Bills depth chart to see what their working with in 2013 and it’s not pretty. Bills fans don’t like when anyone talks poorly about them or picks against them (even when a spread is involved), but even a Bills fan with the Bills logo tattooed on his neck (someone like this has to exist) or a Bills fan with the Bills logo tattooed on his bald head (someone like this also has to exist) would tell you that the 2013 season is going to be fine.

Pittsburgh -7 over TENNESSEE
I really, really, really don’t want to pick the Steelers at seven-point favorites, but then again, how can I pick the Titan to cover? I can’t.

NEW ORLEANS -3 over Atlanta
Last year the Saints season was over at 0-4 then revitalized at 5-5 then destroyed with a three-game losing streak. They were coming off the punishments from their bounty program and Sean Payton was suspended for the season. Saints fans haven’t had a chance to go crazy since their playoff game against the Lions on Jan. 7, 2012 and that was a long time ago. The Superdome is going to be a scary effing place on Sunday and it’s the last place the Falcons defense wants to be to open the season.

Tampa Bay -4.5 over NEW YORK JETS
With the start of football season comes “fan denial.” Every fan thinks their team is going to have a great year and no one wants to hear about the possibility of a lost season or being out of it before the end of September. “Fan denial” is prevalent around the entire NFL, but when it comes to the New York Jets and their fans it’s scary how out of touch with reality people can be.

The Jets are going to suck. They are going to suck in a way that when Rex Ryan is finally showed the door, the Butt Fumble might not be the most embarrassing moment that happened under his watch. But don’t tell Jets fans this. I have had some Jets fan friends tell me the team has a shot at the postseason if everything falls right and I have had others tell me at worst the Jets will finish 8-8. There’s no way to respond to anyone who could make themselves believe that, so I have just to nod my hod in agreement or say things like “Oh yeah, I could see that.” The key to handling Jets fans is to just wait them out. By Week 6 their season will be mathematically destroyed and they won’t be able to use overconfidence as a personality. Just wait them out.

Kansas City -4.5 over JACKSONVILLE
Somewhere someone who isn’t a Chiefs fan or a Jaguars fan is going to bet on this game and watch it in its entirety. Think about that.

CHICAGO -3 over Cincinnati
The Bears are the closest things to the Giants in the NFL when you look at their talent and ability to completely destroy a playoff-bound season. But when it comes to the Bengals there isn’t a team that has gotten as much positive attention and has had as many preseason predictions in their favor since the 2013 Toronto Blue Jays, the 2012 Kansas City Royals, the 2011 Boston Red Sox and every Cowboys team during the Tony Romo era. Nothing says “Letdown season” more than the 2013 Cincinnati Bengals if only because they are being picked to go play at MetLife Stadium in February.

CLEVELAND -1 over Miami
I keep hearing about how the Browns weren’t as bad as their record says they were last season and how close they were to being 8-8. The only problem is they weren’t. And because I initially picked the Dolphins to cover here and then switch my pick to the Browns like a ninth-grade U.S. History Scantron test, I know the Browns are going to lose and their offseason hype bandwagon is going to stall.

Seattle -4.5 over CAROLINA
Somewhere someone who isn’t a Seahawks fan or a Panthers fan is going to bet on this game and watch it in its entirety. Think about that.

Minnesota +6 over DETROIT
The way everyone says each season that three playoff teams could come from the NFC East can now also be said about the NFC North. And it’s time I think everyone needs to look at NFC North games the way they look at NFC East games (before the Eagles fell apart) in that every spread should be three points and any spread over that, you have to take the points.

INDIANAPOLIS -10 over Oakland
Remember when Matt Flynn was highly coveted because of one game (the final game of the 2011 season)? Remember when the Seahawks gave him $10 million of guaranteed money off that game and then made Russell Wilson their starting quarterback over him? And then remember when Flynn was traded to the Raiders two be their starting quarterback and lost out on the job to Terrelle Pryor? I always thought Matt Cassel being coached by Bill Belichick and getting to play with the Patriots offense in 2008 and then cashing in would always be the easiest way any NFL quarterback not named JaMarcus Russell would get rich. But then Matt Flynn came along and totally changed the game by having one good game.

It’s the Everyone Who Is In A Suicide Pool Is Picking This Game of the Week. And I guess it also should be the Anyone Who Is Doing A 10-Point Teaser Is Picking This Game of the Week.

ST. LOUIS -4.5 over Arizona
Somewhere someone who isn’t a Rams fan or a Cardinals fan is going to bet on this game and watch it in its entirety. Think about that.

Green Bay +5 over SAN FRANCISCO
I thought this line was high when I first looked at it in the middle of the summer long before the NFL season was in sight because why wouldn’t I check out Week 1 lines with the season months away? And I still think it’s too high especially with the entire world that isn’t all over the Broncos, Seahawks and Bengals being all over the 49ers when the Packers have the “best” quarterback in the league.

New York Giants +3.5 over DALLAS
The Giants have never lost in Cowboys/AT&T Stadium. (And did you think I would pick against the Giants playing the Cowboys in Week 1?)

WASHINGTON -4.5 over Philadelphia
After beating the Giants in Week 4, the Eagles were 3-1. After losing to the Giants in Week 17, the Eagles finished the season 4-12. A 1-11 stretch was enough for the Eagles to finally fire Andy Reid and try to give their team a much-needed facelift. The common theme this offseason has been that the Eagles won’t be good, but that Chip Kelly might be able to revitalize the team in his first year. Even if he can, it won’t happen in Week 1.

Houston -5.5 over SAN DIEGO
It’s disappointing that Norv Turner is no longer the Chargers head coach because I liked free wins with my picks. But I’m also happy that Norv is gone because this line would have been higher and more challenging had he still been the coach. I have been anti-Philip Rivers and anti-Chargers all along, so I’m not about to turn my back on my beliefs now even if Norv isn’t there.

Blogs

Oct 25, 2012

NFL Week 8 Picks

Last week was another disappointing of picks following the best week of the year, but Week 8 looks promising to get back on track.

Eli Manning had to overcome a three-point deficit with 1:13 and three timeouts left. It was too much time and too many timeouts for the Redskins to stop. I knew it, MetLife Stadium knew it and you better believe Mike Shanahan and Jim Haslett knew it. I was worried that the Giants might fall to 0-3 in the NFC East with an overtime loss to the Redskins, but I knew the game was at least going to overtime. The Giants were going to come back. I just didn’t know they were going to come back on the second play from their own 23.

Sunday’s game was the same old Giants. A perfect mix of undisciplined penalties, costly turnovers, missed opportunities and then a fourth-quarter comeback. It’s gotten to the point where I don’t even need to watch the first 58 minutes of the game because I know what’s going to happen in those 58 minutes and what’s going to happen in the last two minutes. It’s actually a better idea that I don’t watch the first 58 minutes of the game because it will save me from heartache, stress, increased blood pressure and the need to drink. The Giants are always going to be who they are for the first 58 minutes. They just need to continue to be who they are in the final two minutes.

***

Two weeks ago I just posted my picks without any take on the picks or the teams because my attention was on the Yankees postseason, which ended in embarrassing fashion. I went 8-6 that week. Last week I returned to a full picks column (on Friday instead of Thursday) and I went 6-7-1 with my sixth under-.500 week in seven weeks. The season is 41 percent over and after this week it will be 47 percent over. Halloween is in six days and Thanksgiving is in four weeks. It’s getting late early for my picks and it’s time to make a run.

Week 8 picks … let’s go!

(Home team in caps)

MINNESOTA -6.5 over Tampa Bay
I talked with Phil Simms for CBS Local Sports on Monday and he praised the Minnesota Vikings and their great defense and their system. He talked glowingly about every aspect of the Vikings including their outdated dome and their fans. It made me a believer in a team that’s already 5-2 with a bandwagon that’s quickly filling up, as you can see by another somewhat surprising home line. If the man who started the “I’m going to Disney World!” line is sold on the Vikings then so am I.

ST. LOUIS RAMS -7 over New England
The Patriots are giving seven points on the road? I can’t even ask that question with a straight face. Is it 2007? Is George W. Bush still the President? Did I miss something? Are the Patriots not 4-3 with losses to the Cardinals and Seahawks and a home overtime win over Mark Sanchez and the Darrelle Revis/Santonio Holmes-less Jets? Is this real life?

The Patriots have the same public perception that the Yankees have: they’re supposed to win. The difference is that the Yankees won just three years ago while the Patriots last won eight years ago. But even as the Patriots’ elite status begins to crumble and they move closer and closer to the pack in an awful AFC East, people still want to believe that the Patriots are the Patriots of the last decade. But they’re not and people like Mike Hurley won’t accept this until the bottom finally falls out for them and they miss the postseason.

Until that secondary gets fixed and Russell Wilson and Mark Sanchez aren’t able to pick it apart, I’m not picking the Patriots to cover a touchdown with or without Tom Brady and Bill Belichick.

TENNESSEE -3.5 over Indianapolis
It’s the “Do I Really Have to Pick This Game of the Week?” The Colts run defense is bad and Chris Johnson might be back. That’s enough to scare me from the Colts. Well, that and in their two road games they have lost by 20 and 26.

CLEVELAND +3 over San Diego
I will do anything to pick against the Chargers. Anything. Even if “anything” means picking the Browns.

PHILADELPHIA -2 over Atlanta
If I really believe the Falcons aren’t as good as their 6-0 record suggests or as good as people want them to be then I have no choice, but to pick the Eagles here. As much as it pains me to pick the Eagles to win a game when it looks like another season without a postseason for the Eagles and another season full or dysfunction and humiliation and maybe Michael Vick’s last stand as a starting quarterback in the NFL, I have to take the Eagles if I want to continue to tell people that I don’t think the Falcons are the class of the NFC. I don’t have a choice.

DETROIT -2.5 over Seattle
I don’t want to pick any game that involves the Seahawks ever again. They screwed me (along with the replacement refs) against the Packers. They screwed me (along with Nate Ebner) against the Patriots. They screwed me (along with Jim Harbaugh, who decided to decline a holding penalty that would have resulted in a safety and a nine-point win) against the 49ers. Nothing good can come from any game involving the Seahawks and I will pick against them for the rest of 2012. And oh, I hate Pete Carroll. So there’s that too.

NEW YORK JETS -2.5 over Miami
Vegas thinks the Dolphins are better than the Jets with this line, but I don’t think they are. But if I had to pick the one game in Week 8 that I wouldn’t be surprised to lose, it’s this one.

CHICAGO -7.5 over Carolina
The Bears are the biggest threat to the 2012 New York Football Giants in the NFC. The Panthers are the biggest threat to a generation of kids growing up in Carolina, but liking another NFL team.

PITTSBURGH -4.5 over Washington
This line is what it is because the Redskins stayed with the Giants at MetLife last week. But anyone who knows the Giants know that home field is a disadvantage to them. There are two guarantees in the NFL: The Giants will always play up and down to their competition and they will always suck at home. That’s not an opinion, that’s a fact. It’s science. The Redskins were not allowing a 77-yard touchdown pass from Eli Manning to Victor Cruz away from being in first place in the NFC East, but now they are 3-4 and going to Heinz Field where a real home-field advantage exists. DeAngelo Hall might want to start making excuses for his team’s defense now to use after Sunday’s game.

Oakland +1 over KANSAS CITY
The Raiders might be 2-4 and 0-3 on the road with an average loss of 32-13, but Kansas City is 1-5 and Brady Quinn is starting.

New York Giants -2.5 over DALLAS
Eli Manning has never lost at Cowboys Stadium. The Giants are 3-0 in Dallas since the new stadium opened and have put up 33, 41 and 37 points there and this is the best offense the Giants have had since the Cowboys got a new home.

DENVER -6 over New Orleans
The Saints held on for a comeback win in Tampa Bay in Week 7. (That sentence should be all you need to know about the 2012 Saints.) The Saints have won back-to-back games even if the first of these wins was a guarantee with the Chargers going to the SuperDome as Drew Brees tried to break Johnny Unitas’ record and if the second game was against the Buccaneers, who are the Buccaneers. They are now 2-4 and giving Who Dat Nation a giant case of blue balls with the ultimate tease that they are capable of going on an extended winning streak to bring them back into the playoff picture. If this were a Disney movie that would happen. If this were even a made-for-TV movie it might happen. But this is real life and in real life the Saints have the Broncos in Denver coming off a bye. Then they have the Eagles and Falcons before the Raiders, followed by the 49ers, Falcons and Giants. The Saints’ season ended after Week 3 when they fell to 0-3 against the easiest part of their schedule.

San Francisco -7 over ARIZONA
Yes, I’m hoping that Alex Smith can put up points against a defense that has only allowed 21 points once this season. It’s better than hoping that John Skelton can put up any points against a defense that has only allowed more than 19 points to Eli Manning and Aaron Rodgers.

Last Week: 5-7-1
Season: 47-55-2

Blogs • Giants

Feb 13, 2012

Super Bowl XLVI Final Thoughts

After a week of digesting the Super Bowl win and everything that has come with it and from it, Neil Keefe gives his final thoughts on the Giants’ improbable run.

It’s been eight days since the Giants won the Super Bowl and it still hasn’t really set in yet, and maybe it never will. How did the team cruising on the Second-Half Collapse train at 200 mph without any brakes turn into world champions? How did the team that lost to Rex Grossman twice, Charvaris Whiteson and Vince Young beat Aaron Rodgers and the 49ers’ defense on the road and then decapitate Tom Brady, Bill Belichick and the Patriots’ dynasty in the postseason? The answer is: expectations.

All season long I talked about how poorly the Giants play with expectations and how well they play when everyone throws dirt on them. People want to make the connections between the end of the 2011 season and the end of the 2007 season, but I think the connections go all the way back to the beginning of the season.

The 2007 Giants started the season 0-2 and allowed 80 points in those two games and I remember telling my roommates that they might not win a game all year. They were a goal-line stand in Washington away from being 0-3 and basically eliminating themselves from the postseason before September ended. This season I lost all expectations when all the key free agents went elsewhere and the entire team suffered season-ending injuries in preseason. After the Giants lost to the Redskins in Week 1 and let Grossman throw for 305 yards on them I thought the season was over.

The Giants’ season came so close to ending so many times during the regular season, but oddly enough it never really came close to ending in the postseason until Wes Welker couldn’t catch Tom Brady’s poorly thrown pass. What we witnessed since the comeback with 5:41 left in Dallas in Week 14 up until Tom Brady’s Hail Mary attempt hit the ground last Sunday night was more miraculous and more improbable than what we saw in 2007.

I’m exhausted from the last eight days between watching the game, celebrating the victory, attending the parade, listening to every possible Giants interview and consuming every piece of content regarding the team. I’m still running on fumes from last Sunday and drafting off fumes from the Super Bowl victory. I thought about doing a What Went Wrong And Right from my columns on the Giants throughout the season the way I did for the Yankees at the end of their season, but when you win a championship, there’s nothing worthy of complaining about. (Yes, even Kevin Gilbride gets a pass here.)

After a week of digesting the Super Bowl win and everything that has come with it and from it, I have decided to follow up my Super Bowl XLVI Thoughts with my Super Bowl XLVI Final Thoughts. Just picture Jerry Springer sitting on the stool at the end of his show trying to explain what just happened on his Stamford, Conn. stage, except I’m going to try and explain what happened over the last month and a half after letting the idea that the Giants are world champions again settle in.

– Last Tuesday I sprinted down Church St. to get to Broadway, high-stepped some horse manure, got some Dos Equis splashed on me, weaved in and out of thousands of people and rode a crowded subway that had the stench of an element not yet discovered just to see the Lombardi Trophy make its way up the Canyon of Heroes. It was worth it.

– I don’t know who had cheesier lines at the City Hall celebration between Mayor Bloomberg and Steve Tisch? I’m going to go with Bloomberg since Tisch is part owner of the team, so he gets a pass, while Bloomberg decided to start inducting people into the Hall of Fame as awkwardly as possible and predicting another Giants’ championship next season.

– How badly does Michael Strahan wish he played for the Giants this season? Part of me thinks that he thinks he did play for the Giants this season. I was waiting for him to have the final word at City Hall and “stomp out” the Patriots again. I kind of wish he did.

– Eli Manning killed it in Disney World, on David Letterman, at City Hall and at MetLife. There’s no one left that refers to him as “Aw, Shucks” or anyone who doesn’t think he’s elite anymore. This pleases me.

– I’m not sure how many relationships and marriages have been destroyed because of the NFL Network’s existence (and also the MLB, NHL and NBA Networks), but it has to be staggering.

– I spent the weekend in Boston, and it’s always fun to head to the rival city after a devastating defeat, especially one that came out the hands of a New York team. And while in Boston I saw an elementary school in South Boston with huge Patriots logos on the front windows of the building, and I couldn’t help but think about the seven-year-old kids in that school who wonder if their Patriots will ever win the Super Bowl, and whether or not they are becoming the Bills.

– The Giants were incredibly lucky the way their two fumbles bounced, and that the first fumbled was negated by a Patriots’ penalty, and I can’t get over how luck they were. The biggest asset of Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz is their ability to make that one big play that can change a game (or save the season like Cruz did against the Jets), but their biggest flaw is their attempt to make that one big play that leaves them vulnerable to get stripped or hit from behind for a fumble. The same goes for Ahmad Bradshaw.

The Giants kept running the ball and trying to dink and dunk their way to victory over an embarrassing pass defense, and I tweeted during the game that “Running the ball with Bradshaw/Jacobs over passing & letting Tynes kick field goals is like having unprotected sex. Eventually you will lose.” The Giants made a few trips to Planned Parenthood last Sunday, but fortunately got the results they wanted.

– Last week I said…

“Here are some other things we learned this season that no one can do or should do against the Patriots.

1. The Patriots don’t lose in Heinz Field.

2. The Patriots don’t lose back-to-back games.

3. The Patriots don’t lose at Gillette Stadium.

4. Tom Brady never has back-to-back bad games.

5. You don’t want to give Bill Belichick two weeks to prepare a game plan. (This is my favorite because Belichick lost in XLII.)

All of these are now fairytales.”

Now I’m thinking of turning these fairytales into a series of children’s book. If anyone knows a good illustrator, please let me know.

– When I watch the final play of the game I keep thinking Rob Gronkowski is going to catch the Hail Mary attempt and I get this worried sensation that he will. It’s the same feeling I get when I re-watch XLII and see Randy Moss racing down the sideline trying to haul in Brady’s last attempt at perfection. But like Moss, Gronkowski never makes the catch no matter how many times I watch it.

– I’m going to say Tom Brady is more at fault for the missed catch by Wes Welker since he could have thrown a better ball, and I know he could have since he’s Tom Brady. (Don’t tell Gisele.)

– Jake Ballard didn’t do his knee any favors when he tried to come back in the game since he tore his ACL, but I admire him for trying to get back on the field in the Super Bowl despite having a TORN ACL! No one seems to be talking about how the Giants lost Travis Beckum earlier in the game to a torn ACL and then lost Ballard to the same injury. Maybe that many people just aren’t aware of it since Kevin Gilbride wasn’t. Here’s an excerpt from a story on ESPN.com.

Kevin Gilbride was discussing plays with Manning on the sideline when the quarterback blurted, “We can’t run those plays. We don’t have any more tight ends.” He didn’t smile or roll his eyes. He was nonchalantly matter-of-fact, as always, and Gilbride silently nodded, scanning the rest of his play card.

It’s never a good thing when your offensive coordinator doesn’t know which personnel are available in the fourth quarter of the Super Bowl. No big deal.

– I love the idea of Bradying. I love it so much that I decided to get in on the fun last week.

– Mario Manningham’s catch wasn’t David Tyree’s catch and shouldn’t be compared to it since it was a perfect throw and a perfect catch in the smallest of windows. The Tyree catch was the result of a combination of a missed sack attempt, absolute chaos, an insane pass and a miracle catch in the middle of four Patriots defenders. Most people think Manningham will leave the giants since they won’t want to pay him to be the No. 3 receiver, and Paul Dottino told Mike Francesa on WFAN last week that Manningham wants to play in a warm-weather city after playing in college at Michigan and then playing for the Giants. If Manningham’s last game as a Giant was XLVI, we’ll always have his touchdown in the NFC Championship Game and the most important catch of XLVI to remember his time with the Giants,

– Rob Gronkowski partying like he won the Super Bowl after his team lost the Super Bowl isn’t that big of a deal since he’s 22 years old and it’s just another reminder that not every athlete reacts to a devastating loss like fans do. (And no one on the Patriots cared as much Tom Brady and Bill Belichick since they had the most at stake). All I can say is that if Alex Rodriguez were out dancing with his shirt off after losing Game 7 of the World Series, it would be the end of the world. (I mean a shirtless Alex Rodriguez in Central Park during the season was headline worthy.)

– Why all the talk about Tom Brady missing the chance to be “immortal” by not winning XLVI since it would have been his fourth? He also had a chance to win his fourth in XLII and finish the perfect season and didn’t but I don’t remember this much talk about missing out on immortality then. Maybe it’s because this might have been his last chance to get back to the Super Bowl or because he’s getting near that age where quarterbacks start to decline and throw passes to wide-open receivers over the wrong shoulder with a chance to potentially clinch a championship. Nothing would have been more immortal than being 4-0 in the Super Bowl with a 19-0 season on your resume. Why are people acting like this Super Bowl caused him to miss out on immortality? He has missed the train twice now.

– I was a big fan of “Written in the Stars” by Tinie Tempah when it came out. I overplayed it on iTunes and my iPod as if the song was Scott proctor in 2006 and I was Joe Torre. I didn’t kill it by overplaying it like FM radio did with Adele’s “Rolling in the Deep” but I played it enough. Then when the song became the anthem for the 2011 MLB playoffs (playoffs the Yankees would be eliminated in) I didn’t think I could ever listen to it the same way again. Then when the Giants came out to the song for XLVI I thought it was a bad omen after what happened in the 2011 ALDS. But the Giants won the game and now I can enjoy the song again. “Seasons come and go, but I will never change, and I’m on way!”

– Why are the Jets taking out a full-page newspaper ad to congratulate the Giants on winning the Super Bowl? It’s very weird. We all know that both teams don’t like each other and their fan bases certainly don’t like each other, so I’m not really sure who thought this was a good idea. Maybe the same people that thought it was a good idea to have Darrelle Revis hang up in the middle of a phone interview? If the Mets took out a full-page ad to congratulate the Yankees on winning the World Series, their fans would go crazy. (Obviously there isn’t a hypothetical where the Yankees would be congratulating the Mets since the Mets aren’t winning anytime soon.)

Before the season in an email exchange with Ralph Vacchiano of the Daily News, I said:

“All I can hope for is that the season ends better than it did the last two years. And with the way it ended in 2009 and 2010, I will take any playoff berth in any possible way. Give me the No. 6 seed and a path to the Super Bowl built around road games. I don’t care. I just want to watch the playoffs with the Giants in it, and I’m not sure if I can emotionally and physically take another collapse that forces the “Should Tom Coughlin be fired?” discussion for weeks after the season.”

Once they made the playoffs, all I wanted them to do was extend the season for as long as possible. They took us through January and into February (the worst two months for sports and weather in the Tri-State area), and now they pass the baton to the dominant Rangers and surging Knicks as we’re just days away from pitchers and catchers. If the Garden’s teams falter or if February actually turns into February, it won’t matter because I’ll have Super Bowl XLVI to draft off of.

Tag: Bill Belichick

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